I'm just a 21 year old weather graphic geek. Most of you know Max.
By: trHUrrIXC5MMX , 10:19 PM GMT on August 23, 2012
My new graphic has several features, many of them are self explanatory others aren't as much. All of them based on the storm in the title...
Im also discussing my forecast for Isaac relating it to the NHC 5 PM advisory 11.
Figure 1: The latest update for Isaac. The forecast track has been shifted well to the west based on the 5 pm advisory from the NHC and the recent model runs...specially the GFS.
THE GRAPHIC ITSELF
My graphic consists pretty much on a big satellite from the NASA GOES 13 Project with photoshop and powerpoint features overlapping it. I always use the most updated satellite image to work with...
Figure 2: The heading, here is where the important information is located. In order there is information about the wind speed, pressure in mb, location in relation to populated land areas, moving speed and the SSHWS category. All speeds are given in MPH.
Some other features that are not specified are the following;
The storm ID number is located above the storm name as AL 092012 meaning AL for Atlantic,
09 is the 9th named storm for the season and the year 2012
The timing of the NHC advisory is also indicated next to the pressure reading.
Next to the time is the NHC advisory number, this case being 11. Ignore that "0" in front.
Figure 3: Here you find the information relevant to the heading. The symbol placed over the cyclone being discussed.
(Note that other little tropical storm symbol, that one is Joyce). The main storm is Isaac.
The cone is divided in lines indicating future positions of the storm (just predictions based on models)
and roughly one line has a little box (either blue for TS, red for HRCN and purple for MH, purple not shown here).
The little shaded line inside the red forecast path is my own guess of the nearly-exact path of the storm..
Remember that these are all probabilities and predictions...nothing is certain. That's why is called the "cone of uncertainty."
Note: The wind intensities could be 5 mph higher or lower than the ones displayed here.
In the bottom left you find when I updated such graphic.
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC
Isaac has been big time struggling to organize over the past two days mainly because of its large size around the
Leeward Islands, now moving away from there but still suffering.
Dry air is not as dig of a deal for the storm now, much of the area ahead of Isaac has been moistened by the storm,
however, there are still pockets of light to moderate dry air. There is not much of wind shear either affecting the storm.
Isaac is in the same area where Ernesto and Helene crossed, both also struggled organizing.
Figure 4: Current visible satellite shows how disorganized the storm is, some bursts of convection are noted flaring up.
Since Isaac is a rather large and minimal 40 mph storm, rapid intensification is not expected, although,
possible if the storm was better organized. Only gradual strengthening is expected.
My current forecast takes the storm near hurricane status impacting the southern side of Hispaniola.
Since the storm is weak, not much intensification (in any) inside the hurricane status is expected.
After leaving Hispaniola the storm is heading for Cuba. Depending on how much Isaac interacts with the high terrain
of Hispaniola, would decide whether the storm is strong enough as a cyclone to hit the also high terrains of the
Sierra Maestra mountain range in western Cuba which is the highest of the country.
After that, the won't be any other high terrain left, much of Cuba has low terrain surfaces.
If the storm survives this big challenge, specially Hispaniola's, then the danger increases for Florida all the way to
Louisiana. Florida is currently the most threatened state for am impact.
During the crossing of Hispaniola Isaac will surely dump very heavy rains other the Dominican Republic and
2010 Earthquake devastated Haiti. While much of Haiti has recovered, many people still live in tents
and this poses a wind and heavy rain danger there. Also much of Haiti's vegetation is deforested,
not enough trees are there to hold water from coming down the mountain slopes and this would also
increase the risk for mudslides.Then heavy rain could mover over western Cuba and southeastern Bahamas
and over the Turks and Caicos Islands where a tropical storm warning is in effect.
Hurricane warnings are in effect for Haiti and the southern coast of the Dominican Republic.
Florida must monitor the progress of this storm, the odds could be for a hurricane to impact the state.
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