Rough weather starting the weekend, but some may welcome it with a smile

By: trHUrrIXC5MMX , 11:20 AM GMT on February 26, 2014

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Second preliminary snowfall forecast... until winter alerts are issued
February 28 at 7:10 PM ET

Based on the latest computer models, the swath of snow is now forecast to have taken a southward shift than initially forecast. New places may be up for significant snows while others previously threatened may not be any longer up for such snow.

Here is the breakdown:

1-3 Inches:
In Virginia for Roanoke eastwards to Richmond and the Virginia section of the DelMarVa Peninsula (Salisbury). So Lynchburg to Charlottesville, Culpepper, Alexandria and the Arlington area which may be in the higher end of the range, possibly for 2-5"
In the north end: From Erie into Buffalo eastwards to Rochester and Syracuse to Schenectady, Utica and Saratoga Springs crossing the NY/VT state line to Rutland, Hanover VT/NH into Lincoln all the way to Augusta, Maine or maybe south of Augusta a bit. The city may be looking for the lower end of the snowfall forecast... Up to 2"

3-6 inches:
All northern Pennsylvania except for Erie.
Northern W VA and VA. Harrsonburg, VA eastwards to Washington DC to Baltimore along I-95. Havre de Grace and all the southern Susquehanna River Valley. Central Delaware and southern New Jersey.
All northern PA except for Erie into Binghamton, NY and northern Hudson River Valley. Northern and western Massachusetts. Southern Vermont and New Hampshire. Anywhere south of Portland for Maine

6-12 Inches... here is where it comes critical forecast
From the Major city of Boston, westwards to Worcester into Springfield-Northampton down into northern Connecticut for Hartford, Torrington, Storrs, Norwich, Putnam. Also the entire Ocean State (Providence, Pawtucket Warwick, Newport, Narragansett. This also includes all the Cape Cod-Plymouth-Nantucket area of Massachusetts. This forecast is also for Mid Hudson River Valley from Poughkeepsie in NY westwards to Monticello. Into PA for Scranton, State College (higher snow just south of the city) all the way to Pittsburg, then coming back for the southern border counties along I-76 into Harrisburg Lancaster and Philadelphia Metro Area.
Only central New Jersey, Monmouth and northern Burlington counties are up for 6-12" because there is heavier snow for the north and lighter snow for the south.


12+ Inches... Major
South of State College from Central PA into all Northern New Jersey. A line from Trenton to Middletown northward into New York City metropolitan area and all Long Island. North of the city for Yonkers, White Plains to Peekskill in Westchester county. All coastal Connecticut along 1-95... southern Fairfield (south of I-84), New Haven and coastal areas of Middlesex and New London counties including Danbury on I-84 down into Stamford, Norwalk, Bridgeport, New Haven metro area eastward to Old Lyme to New London to Westerly in the CT/RI border. This includes Block Island.

There is no solid forecast as to these snow accumulations for the places listed above thus this may change.





Forecasting Snowstorms: More misses than actual hits for the Northeast?
Last week we were monitoring the potential for a snowstorm to hit the northeast, a pretty significant snowstorm, after that point models began coming up with the idea that such ingredients coming together was more of a fantasy than a reality thus no significant storm is on sight anymore for this week.



Only very little, if anything, is expected to accumulate for the NYC Area



Is winter over then...snow-wise?
Um..well, can't call off winter completely regarding the snow for the northeast. In fact, a very strong high is expected to move southwards and bring another blast of dangerous cold air to the area, possibly like those we had in January. Temperatures in the teens to twenties are in the forecast for the metropolitan area, blow zero to single digits to teens up places in the interior. These are truly deep winter temperatures.

In 2 days we will be entering March, the 3rd month of 2014, how is it possible to be feeling such brutal weather conditions in March? Aren't we getting loose from the cold to enter the milder spring-like temperatures? Winter has another plans!

According to AccuWeather, winter has not plans on leaving for the next 3 weeks! Yes, this comes with a stormy weather pattern for the northeast.
Winter is going to deliver up to last snowflake for of us, until then is not leaving.

A stormy pattern is going to build as the aforementioned arctic high moves its way southward starting today. After the light snow expected today for the Mid-Atlantic and the Northeast we may expect another weak storm by this weekend with no significant impacts then Monday next week is the day we have to look out for. There is a potential storm to impact the region.

But before talking about the northeast, let's rewind, rewind to the west coast as this storm will be starting the parade from there.

The storm circled in red is the big player, as you see there is a storm reaching the coast of California where they need rain so bad to stop the major drought currently affecting the state from getting worse than it is right now. That storm is going to do little to help however the one being it, the big player, could dump a hefty amount of rain. California then needs to worry about mudslides and flooding from the heavy rain coming their way starting on Friday out of the storm currently located north of Hawaii.

The coastal half of California, which is in the worst shape rain wise may receive from 3 to 6 inches of beneficial rain during the early weekend. Also very heavy Sierra snows are expected, 12 to 24" of snowfall accompanied by gusty winds all across the drought stricken state.

6.1" for the Los Angeles metro area


Anywhere from San Diego, Los Angeles to Sacramento-San Francisco to Redding and all the way to Portland, OR will be looking for big rain.



Again, this heavy rain is beneficial for California but people need to watch out for flooding as this water can't penetrate the dried land as fast as if it were moist. Flood watches may be issued.

This could be the last big rain California may see in a while, unfortunately.

As the storm, circled in red, enters California from the southwest and moves northeastward delivering heavy amounts of rain for must of the southwest states, Midwest cities then need to pay attention to this storm as heavy snow, dangerous ice and heavy rain with thunderstorms are possible all the way from north to south.

If you live along the Ohio River Valley and the northern Mississippi River Valley in the Midwest you need to pa attention to the forecast as there could be some significant snow for you from this storm approaching by the weekend. Anywhere north of Intestate 64 from West Virginia through Lexington, KY to Kansas City, MO could see accumulable snow. Depending on the exact track of the storm we can be pointed out who is going to get how much but at this time it's too pearly to talk about accumulations.



Between Interstate 40 and Interstate 64 look for a rain/snow and ice mix. There is the potential for some dangerous ice to accumulate anywhere from St. Louis eastwards to central Kentucky (possibly northern Tennessee) into the Virginias. Such mix could also slide into portions of Southern IL, IN and OH.

Anywhere south of I-40 is going to be just rain, Dallas - Little Rock - Nashville - Knoxville-Greensboro, NC and Norfolk, VA on southwards.
Anywhere from Shreveport, LA to Atlanta, Georgia look for a rumble of thunder accompanied with the rain.

Now, the question is for the northeast states. Where is is storm going to go?
Some models take the storm close enough up the coast to bring dangerous wintry weather conditions others take the storm out to sea off North Carolina



As usual, there are two possible tracks. Depending on which the storm moves along we may be impacted or not. By this time must of the northern states have gone through a major cold spell so big snows for the I-95 big cities is possible as we are going to be influenced by this arctic high still.


7:25 PM Update 2/26
Winter alerts beginning to be issued for the northwest
This is the beginning of this big storm


Stay tuned for more updates, we are still too far from this event and a lot of things can happen.




Remembering Chile on this day...

After the world's 6th most powerful earthquake unleashed a Pacific Ocean wide tsunami placing dozens of countries under alert.

M 8.8 - Southwest of Santiago, Chile.
Over 500 deaths... shaking lasted for nearly 3 minutes.


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155. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
5:35 AM GMT on March 02, 2014
trHUrrIXC5MMX has created a new entry.
154. Pcroton
2:05 AM GMT on March 02, 2014
Quoting 149. trHUrrIXC5MMX:
I really feel handcuffed right now... I don't know what to do with the snowfall forecast as I want to update the graphic but I really have no idea what to do for NYC and points north...

2-4", 3-6", 4-8", 5-9", 6-10"??
which one?



If the Euro is any indication just draw the swath of snow on the tropic of cancer and be done with it.



Yeah, it's been a mess of modeling which is why I have just maintained a steady hand in thinking. My feeling is if I am wrong, fine, and tomorrow morning I will see what has transpired and go with new thoughts.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 48 Comments: 7669
153. trHUrrIXC5MMX
1:59 AM GMT on March 02, 2014
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
152. trHUrrIXC5MMX
1:57 AM GMT on March 02, 2014
NWS Sacramento ‏@NWSSacramento 25m
Do you know the difference between a funnel cloud and a #tornado? Captured photo by eye witness, Dillion Davis #cawx pic.twitter.com/jihkYYmREy

Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
151. trHUrrIXC5MMX
1:57 AM GMT on March 02, 2014
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150. trHUrrIXC5MMX
1:45 AM GMT on March 02, 2014
Look what Accuweather is saying for our area... 1-3" when it said 6-10" yesterday morning

Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
149. trHUrrIXC5MMX
1:43 AM GMT on March 02, 2014
I really feel handcuffed right now... I don't know what to do with the snowfall forecast as I want to update the graphic but I really have no idea what to do for NYC and points north...

2-4", 3-6", 4-8", 5-9", 6-10"??
which one?
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
148. trHUrrIXC5MMX
1:38 AM GMT on March 02, 2014
Quoting 147. Astrometeor:
@Pcroton, may I laugh at the 12Z Euro?

TWC's forecast is interesting, but I'm too pessimistic. They have issued a winter weather advisory, however. I'm just afraid that the ground will be too warm.

Timing is an issue for us down here...the current forecast is to have the changeover happen sometime around 3 AM Monday morning...creating major issues for the school boards on decision making.

In Nashville's history, the data says March 1-3 has record of 3.5" of snow, however, March 4 has a record of 7.5" of snow, set in 1917.


major Issues??? 1-3"?

I thought Nash was better than ATL for this... neeevermind!
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
147. Astrometeor
12:36 AM GMT on March 02, 2014
@Pcroton, may I laugh at the 12Z Euro?

TWC's forecast is interesting, but I'm too pessimistic. They have issued a winter weather advisory, however. I'm just afraid that the ground will be too warm.

Timing is an issue for us down here...the current forecast is to have the changeover happen sometime around 3 AM Monday morning...creating major issues for the school boards on decision making.

In Nashville's history, the data says March 1-3 has record of 3.5" of snow, however, March 4 has a record of 7.5" of snow, set in 1917.
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 100 Comments: 10217
146. trHUrrIXC5MMX
11:39 PM GMT on March 01, 2014
Another big shift south with the snowfall swath. Hard for NYC to get anything higher than light snow...


Philadelphia nws
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
145. Pcroton
9:07 PM GMT on March 01, 2014
This is bordering on the absurd. I don't ordinarily commend the TWC but they are holding fast as am I until I see more.


But come'on now...





12Z Euro....






Can this really be right in March? It looks ridiculous for the dead of winter let alone March.

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144. trHUrrIXC5MMX
7:30 PM GMT on March 01, 2014
major temperature gradient


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143. trHUrrIXC5MMX
7:26 PM GMT on March 01, 2014
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142. Pcroton
7:22 PM GMT on March 01, 2014
Exactly, Max. It is being underplayed...but the 6Z guidance models sure picked up on the increase as did the 12Z. 0Z runs were dry.

Wonder if we now see another uptick at 18 and 0z tonight.

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141. trHUrrIXC5MMX
7:17 PM GMT on March 01, 2014
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140. noreasterrrrr
1:57 PM GMT on March 01, 2014
I think a Solid 5-8+ is a possibility hints are maybe a slight trend north
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139. originalLT
1:55 PM GMT on March 01, 2014
Max, look at post #350 in Pcroton's blog.
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138. trHUrrIXC5MMX
1:51 PM GMT on March 01, 2014
Welcome March!!!

3.11 - 3 years have passed
We stand together this month with our Japanese people. It will three years since the worst possible attack from Nature was unleashed for the "Land of the Rising Sun" ever.
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137. originalLT
1:12 PM GMT on March 01, 2014
Hi Max, yeah, the 12Z GFS will be interesting to see if it changed one way or another.
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136. trHUrrIXC5MMX
1:08 PM GMT on March 01, 2014
I'll be changing my snowfall map later today
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135. trHUrrIXC5MMX
1:07 PM GMT on March 01, 2014
Well, your friends will be fine Larry... they just got to keep moving
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134. originalLT
12:40 PM GMT on March 01, 2014
Morning Max, going to Costco today at about 1pm or so. Getting some food for our house to have ready for people who may come to our house to pay respects for Maxine, we've invited people for 6-8pm to come over on SUNDAY.. I' know it may be snowing then, so not sure how many will be able to show up. I think your map on post # 128 up-dated itself, now calls for 5-8" in our region, not 8-12" and I think it's right.
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133. originalLT
4:49 AM GMT on March 01, 2014
G'nite Max and Nor. What is "Titan"
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132. trHUrrIXC5MMX
4:46 AM GMT on March 01, 2014
Quoting 131. noreasterrrrr:
Goin to bed..hope to see something nice in morning..if I can sleep I hope..nite


Im going to sleep too... If I can then you can as well

Gnite all
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131. noreasterrrrr
4:45 AM GMT on March 01, 2014
Goin to bed..hope to see something nice in morning..if I can sleep I hope..nite
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130. trHUrrIXC5MMX
4:41 AM GMT on March 01, 2014
Jim Cantore ‏@JimCantore 2m
Still more rain togo in the southwest w/ hvy mountain snow. Already over 2.3" in downtown Los Angeles today
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129. noreasterrrrr
4:41 AM GMT on March 01, 2014
Lol
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128. trHUrrIXC5MMX
4:39 AM GMT on March 01, 2014
Hey... this is new!
They call for 8-12 across much of the area inclined out Fairfield county, CT


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127. trHUrrIXC5MMX
4:38 AM GMT on March 01, 2014
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126. trHUrrIXC5MMX
4:36 AM GMT on March 01, 2014
TROPICAL STORM FAXAI (03W) ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP032014
200 PM CHST SAT MAR 1 2014

...TROPICAL STORM FAXAI (03W) IS DRIFTING SLOWLY TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...8.6N 149.5E

ABOUT 465 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 480 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 515 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 515 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 180 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF CHUUK AND
ABOUT 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF ULUL

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...TOWARD EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 110 DEGREES AT 3 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAXAI WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 8.6 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
149.5 DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL STORM FAXAI IS DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD. FAXAI HAS
BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY AT TIMES THIS MORNING BUT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHWARD TONIGHT. IT WILL CONTINUE ON THIS NORTHWARD TRACK
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. IN THE LONGER RANGE...FAXAI IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTHWARD ON A TRACK TO THE EAST OF THE MARIANA ISLANDS ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FAXAI IS EXPECTED
TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 8 PM THIS EVENING.
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125. trHUrrIXC5MMX
4:34 AM GMT on March 01, 2014
Los Angeles under flash flood warning...




FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OXNARD CA
802 PM PST FRI FEB 28 2014

CAC037-010445-
/O.CON.KLOX.FF.W.0003.000000T0000Z-140301T0445Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
LOS ANGELES CA-
802 PM PST FRI FEB 28 2014

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM PST FOR
CENTRAL LOS ANGELES COUNTY...

AT 754 PM PST...DOPPLER RADAR AND RAIN GAGES CONTINUED TO INDICATE
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL LOS ANGELES COUNTY. RAINFALL RATES HAVE
DECREASED SOMEWHAT...BUT WERE STILL LOCALLY NEAR THREE QUARTERS OF
AN INCH PER HOUR...MAINLY NORTH OF THE 101 FREEWAY. URBAN FLASH
FLOODING IS STILL LIKELY IN THE WARNING AREA. ROADWAYS THAT WILL
BE MOST AFFECTED BY HEAVY RAIN THROUGH 845 PM PST INCLUDE THE
5 AND 170 FREEWAYS NORTH OF THE 101 AND THE 210 FREEWAY.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO TUJUNGA...
SUNLAND...LAKE VIEW TERRACE...LA CRESCENTA AND LA CANADA/FLINTRIDGE

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES
AS WELL AS OTHER DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.
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124. trHUrrIXC5MMX
4:34 AM GMT on March 01, 2014
00z suite now running...

NAM - Less snow for the NYC area
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123. trHUrrIXC5MMX
4:28 AM GMT on March 01, 2014
Like I mentioned earlier... tomorrow morning we should have winter weather watches for our area, if that doesn't happen in the morning then it must by 4 PM tomorrow.
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122. trHUrrIXC5MMX
4:27 AM GMT on March 01, 2014
And LT..
There is something I have to tell you about what happened to a friend of Mom's on Hope street near the Glenbrook train station.

Police pulled mom's friend over and got a ticket for driving wrong way...
I'll tell you tomorrow why.
Im tired now.
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121. noreasterrrrr
4:26 AM GMT on March 01, 2014
Are we still in an 8-12?
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120. trHUrrIXC5MMX
4:25 AM GMT on March 01, 2014
Hi Larry...

If I have to make necessary adjustments to stay parallel to the actual snowfall forecasts then I promise you I will.
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119. noreasterrrrr
4:23 AM GMT on March 01, 2014
Lets see lol
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118. originalLT
4:23 AM GMT on March 01, 2014
Hi Max, well, we buried my Step-Mom Maxine today, and Sunday 1pm we have the service for her. By then everyone who is coming into the area from afar will be here. --On to weather, The 00Z GFS is in, and does not look too promising for our area. It's sagging further South, so I'm going with a 5-7" snow fall for our area, Sw CT. and Westchester. I know things can change, but the writing seems to be on the wall for those lesser figures. Just my opinion, and in this case hope I am wrong, for all the snow lovers out there.
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117. trHUrrIXC5MMX
4:15 AM GMT on March 01, 2014
Quoting 116. noreasterrrrr:
I cant believe it..again dont know how I will sleep tonight with this situation..can u please tell me when the next important computer runs will be available to us?

Well I don't want to leave you hanging from your sleep...

The 00z suite is coming out now. This is an important one... so is the 12z tomorrow
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116. noreasterrrrr
2:42 AM GMT on March 01, 2014
I cant believe it..again dont know how I will sleep tonight with this situation..can u please tell me when the next important computer runs will be available to us?
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115. washingtonian115
2:26 AM GMT on March 01, 2014
Quoting 109. trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Mmmm.
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114. trHUrrIXC5MMX
2:18 AM GMT on March 01, 2014
Quoting 113. noreasterrrrr:
Thanks for answering ...I just was wondering what do YOU believe will happen?? ( and no I wont hold you to it lol) just wondering ur gut feeling..


what WOULD I want to happen? that's obvious for a snow lover
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113. noreasterrrrr
1:52 AM GMT on March 01, 2014
Thanks for answering ...I just was wondering what do YOU believe will happen?? ( and no I wont hold you to it lol) just wondering ur gut feeling..
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112. trHUrrIXC5MMX
1:50 AM GMT on March 01, 2014
Quoting 111. noreasterrrrr:
I see.. any chance of a north shift? Because it seems models wont have a good handle until circulation is onshore...

then yes...snowfall may increase or most likely return to the earlier thinking before the south shift.

Im holding the idea for anywhere just under 12" for our area... going with 8-12"

In my graphic I did the 12+ just if things shift back north or the south shift is disregarded
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111. noreasterrrrr
1:47 AM GMT on March 01, 2014
I see.. any chance of a north shift? Because it seems models wont have a good handle until circulation is onshore...
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110. trHUrrIXC5MMX
1:45 AM GMT on March 01, 2014
Quoting 108. noreasterrrrr:
Do you think those numbers may go up here in Yonkers ny

if the south shift keeps being denoted on the models then the snow for us may go down... but the NWS is not too sure about a drastic snowfall adjustment
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109. trHUrrIXC5MMX
1:43 AM GMT on March 01, 2014
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108. noreasterrrrr
1:42 AM GMT on March 01, 2014
Do you think those numbers may go up here in Yonkers ny
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107. trHUrrIXC5MMX
1:42 AM GMT on March 01, 2014
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106. trHUrrIXC5MMX
1:40 AM GMT on March 01, 2014
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105. trHUrrIXC5MMX
1:13 AM GMT on March 01, 2014
From the rain in CA



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About trHUrrIXC5MMX

I'm just a 21 year old weather graphic geek. Most of you know Max.

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Cranbury
Norwalk, CT
Elevation: 86 ft
Temperature: 58.0 °F
Dew Point: 57.2 °F
Humidity: 97%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 0.0 mph
Updated: 5:14 AM EDT on August 20, 2014
Park Slope, Brooklyn, NY 11215
Brooklyn, NY
Elevation: 95 ft
Temperature: 64.4 °F
Dew Point: 57.0 °F
Humidity: 77%
Wind: 3.8 mph from the ESE
Wind Gust: 3.8 mph
Updated: 7:43 PM EDT on June 11, 2014
Eagle Ridge
Marietta, GA
Elevation: 1170 ft
Temperature: 72.1 °F
Dew Point: 71.2 °F
Humidity: 97%
Wind: 2.0 mph from the NNW
Wind Gust: 4.0 mph
Updated: 5:14 AM EDT on August 20, 2014

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