Wet ending/starting the week. Cold blast with a potentially major snowstorm in 2014?

By: trHUrrIXC5MMX , 10:00 PM GMT on December 28, 2013

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A matter of few days to welcome our 5th year of the decade. Hope you had a great Christmas!

MAJOR SNOWSTORM AHEAD

--------
Dec-30 8:25 PM Update

MAJOR 2014 WINTER STORM APPROACHING... ROUGHLY HOW MUCH SNOW?

Click on the image for larger view


30-Dec 11:20 AM Update

Potentially major snowstorm by late next week. The timing is key as to where the storm begins to strengthen.
The bulk of the snow is now expected to be in the interior areas of New England



Less snow for coastal areas south of Boston, and much less south of NYC
Chances are decreasing for cities south of NYC, there will be accumulable snow all along NYC area, Long Island, coastal CT into Providence.
Boston and cities northward could be up for the best of the snow.


438 AM EST MON DEC 30 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

LIKELIHOOD IS INCREASING FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW AND/OR
WINTRY MIX LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW ARE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. CLOSER TO
THE COAST...ACCUMULATING SNOW COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS AS
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS IN EXACT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND WINTER
PRECIPITATION TYPES.


BRUTAL COLD COMES AFTER THE SNOW... EXPECT BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES...
More details later


----

Big rains from the Gulf Coast into southern New England
The southeast, a very saturated region of the nation from non stopping storms rolling across, is up for even more drenching rains today and tomorrow. Up to 3 inches are possible in northern Georgia. Flood watches are up for the area covered under the FFC Peachtree City NWS.


A big dump of rain for lands that don't even need an extra drop of water. Expect more flooding as the consequence.

This was my problem when leaving from Atlanta last Sunday, the railroad tracks covered with water stopped the train from moving for hours hence the 12 hour major delay. This same issue is going to happen again today and tomorrow for those Amtrak Crescent travelers... have fun, enjoy and be patient. I know how it feels like.

Further north, into the interior New England where cold temperatures take over the rain into snow, expect significant snowfall accumulations for interior Maine. Up to a feet of snow is possible in Bangor and Augusta. Winter storm warnings are issued for you.


There could be a brief rain/snow mix for places in MASS, CT, southern VT-NH, upstate NY, northern PA and along the Appalachians to Virginia. Snow is expected in the highest elevations.

Also, some gusty winds will be possible from New York City eastwards across coastal Connecticut. The strongest will be across Long Island, Nantucket, Rhode Island and eastern Mass.

My forecast for the storm


More updates later..if needed
____________

Big Cold blast to end the 2013

Temperatures dropping into the low teens to single digits in southern New England as we leave 2013 and enter 2014. It will be one of the coldest days of the winter season. These temperatures will last few days into the New Year then warm up a bit by January 4.

January 3 could be the day the Northeast gets hit by a potential nor'easter, major and widespread snowfall possible for all the NYC-Boston area up to Maine with 10 to 25 inches of snow possible. Again, it's too early for any detailed forecast as this is over a week ahead. Please monitor the weather if you live anywhere in the Northeast Coast during early to mid next week.

Euro Model at 162 hrs. January 4th, 2014
Credit: MAweatherboy1



________________

I'll have a final blog for 2013 by the next few days.

HURRICANE CHART - The Winners
Wait anxiously for the winners of the Hurricane Chart which I will announce in the next few days as well.
By the way, you can check out the 2013 list under my recommended links.


I'll leave you with this image:
Today's sunset in Norwalk, CT... my hometown





Thanks for visiting! Feel free to leave a comment below.




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227. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
4:34 AM GMT on January 01, 2014
trHUrrIXC5MMX has created a new entry.
226. Pcroton
3:49 AM GMT on January 01, 2014
0Z NAM is out of this world. Loaded up my entry with pics.

Hoping the 0Z GFS confirms.

Seems NAM finally sampled all that needed sampling and came up with a viable solution. If not, it's a good one anyway.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 73 Comments: 12792
225. trHUrrIXC5MMX
3:16 AM GMT on January 01, 2014
Can anyone tell me what's the latest with the models??? I have to catch up with you guys

I also have do update graphics and write a new final blog for 2013
lots of stuff I gottta do before midnight

PS... Im keeping southern half of New England for 12 inches of snow no matter what
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
224. trHUrrIXC5MMX
3:15 AM GMT on January 01, 2014
Good evening all

Thank you so much Nigel and Dave... i wish the same for you and your loved ones
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
223. nigel20
10:27 PM GMT on December 31, 2013
Happy new year to you and your family, Max!
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 12 Comments: 8489
222. DaveFive
10:26 PM GMT on December 31, 2013
HAPPY NEW YEAR 2014
Member Since: August 16, 2013 Posts: 9 Comments: 311
221. Astrometeor
9:24 PM GMT on December 31, 2013
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 101 Comments: 10500
220. Astrometeor
9:23 PM GMT on December 31, 2013
No fatalities in 2013! First time since 2007!

Tennessee Tornadoes 2013

Edit: Stupid picture looked good in preview, website didn't deliver upon posting, though. -____-
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 101 Comments: 10500
219. trHUrrIXC5MMX
7:07 PM GMT on December 31, 2013
I'm going out be back tonight when hopefully there are better news on the models
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
218. trHUrrIXC5MMX
6:05 PM GMT on December 31, 2013
Quoting 216. Pcroton:


That's their M.O. Max. Always conservative. They've done this all year long... and always lost out to Upton's snow maps.

Always a full contour below Upton's thinking.

Then the snowfall verifies to Upton's contours in the end.

It's just how they do things. They're always late, too.
yeah, they don't quite match... either NJ is conservative or NYC is too generous

Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
217. trHUrrIXC5MMX
6:02 PM GMT on December 31, 2013
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
216. Pcroton
5:53 PM GMT on December 31, 2013
Quoting 214. trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Finally NJ jumps in

A little conservative forecast


That's their M.O. Max. Always conservative. They've done this all year long... and always lost out to Upton's snow maps.

Always a full contour below Upton's thinking.

Then the snowfall verifies to Upton's contours in the end.

It's just how they do things. They're always late, too.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 73 Comments: 12792
215. trHUrrIXC5MMX
5:35 PM GMT on December 31, 2013
nothing from Albany NY yet

Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
214. trHUrrIXC5MMX
5:33 PM GMT on December 31, 2013
Finally NJ jumps in

A little conservative forecast
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
213. trHUrrIXC5MMX
5:27 PM GMT on December 31, 2013
Quoting 210. MAweatherboy1:
Guys, just so you're aware the maps from post 190 are the complete storm, not just 6 hours. The maps go in 6 hourly intervals but it's the total precip for the event up to that point. They do assume a 10:1 ratio, however, while we know the ratio will be substantially higher, so the actual amounts would be higher than shown. We'll have to see what the 12z Euro says but the 12z models today aren't encouraging. I do see a few problems with them, some of which have been mentioned, but a perfect phase really isn't looking likely. Here's a map from one of my local stations.



LT- I don't know why the amounts on the maps I posted cut off near the coast. Maybe a model resolution issue. Either way, you're right, they're probably not right for your area.

hey that's a good map but the cut off...eeeh

nope, they say 6 hour snowfall
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
212. trHUrrIXC5MMX
5:26 PM GMT on December 31, 2013
Quoting 211. Hurricane614:


You live in CT right?

YES, I was mentioning that for my Australian friends like Aussiestorm
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
211. Hurricane614
5:20 PM GMT on December 31, 2013
Quoting 209. trHUrrIXC5MMX:
HELLO 2014



You live in CT right?
Member Since: September 6, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 509
210. MAweatherboy1
5:20 PM GMT on December 31, 2013
Guys, just so you're aware the maps from post 190 are the complete storm, not just 6 hours. The maps go in 6 hourly intervals but it's the total precip for the event up to that point. They do assume a 10:1 ratio, however, while we know the ratio will be substantially higher, so the actual amounts would be higher than shown. We'll have to see what the 12z Euro says but the 12z models today aren't encouraging. I do see a few problems with them, some of which have been mentioned, but a perfect phase really isn't looking likely. Here's a map from one of my local stations.



LT- I don't know why the amounts on the maps I posted cut off near the coast. Maybe a model resolution issue. Either way, you're right, they're probably not right for your area.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8049
209. trHUrrIXC5MMX
5:17 PM GMT on December 31, 2013
HELLO 2014

Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
208. trHUrrIXC5MMX
5:12 PM GMT on December 31, 2013
Quoting 204. originalLT:
The 12Z looks like it splits the storm--one further out and one, as "P" said, intensifying closer to the coast. --Have to go out for a few hours , may have a chance to check in from time to time.

it's so cold here... 26F but feels like 17F
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
207. trHUrrIXC5MMX
5:11 PM GMT on December 31, 2013
Quoting 206. Hurricane614:


Sp your'e saying to totally disregard the 12z run?


I find the Euro more important, although it really slacked
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
206. Hurricane614
4:53 PM GMT on December 31, 2013
Quoting 205. Pcroton:
I think after looking at everything and reading some others thoughts that the 12Z NAM and GFS are utter trash at the surface. In fact the GFS conflicts itself by phasing at 500MB but then yielding a sloppy mess of a surface scenario. It can't have it both ways.

Well... 12Z Euro might fall to the same problems these models are having.

0Z guidance anyone? See ya in the morning? LOL....I'm getting there.



Sp your'e saying to totally disregard the 12z run?
Member Since: September 6, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 509
205. Pcroton
4:49 PM GMT on December 31, 2013
I think after looking at everything and reading some others thoughts that the 12Z NAM and GFS are utter trash at the surface. In fact the GFS conflicts itself by phasing at 500MB but then yielding a sloppy mess of a surface scenario. It can't have it both ways.

Well... 12Z Euro might fall to the same problems these models are having.

0Z guidance anyone? See ya in the morning? LOL....I'm getting there.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 73 Comments: 12792
204. originalLT
4:37 PM GMT on December 31, 2013
The 12Z looks like it splits the storm--one further out and one, as "P" said, intensifying closer to the coast. --Have to go out for a few hours , may have a chance to check in from time to time.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8010
203. Hurricane614
4:32 PM GMT on December 31, 2013
Some flurries in the air.
Member Since: September 6, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 509
202. trHUrrIXC5MMX
4:32 PM GMT on December 31, 2013
Quoting 199. Hurricane614:
When does is the Euro released?


by noon or sometime later... I have to wait until 3 pm to see it
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
201. trHUrrIXC5MMX
4:31 PM GMT on December 31, 2013
Quoting 197. originalLT:
Still don't like those maps Max. Bernie, by the way is saying about 6-8" for our area, as it looks now.


he mentioned NYC around 6". So we are up for a little more, perhaps we are right on the NWS map...some 6-8" for us (not for NYC anymore)

Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
200. trHUrrIXC5MMX
4:30 PM GMT on December 31, 2013
Quoting 195. Hurricane614:
That's really weird, the graphics in post 190 and 192, don't go together at all, and are almost opposites.

well, they are based from different model consistency
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
199. Hurricane614
4:27 PM GMT on December 31, 2013
When does is the Euro released?
Member Since: September 6, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 509
198. Pcroton
4:26 PM GMT on December 31, 2013
The maps in 190 are a 6 hour total for a specific 6 hour period...and at a 10:1 ratio.

Ratios will be nearly double that NYC northward..and the storm is lasting ~18 hours.

No worries.

I like what the 12Z GFS did because it finally phased and wound the storm up - IN our waters and not well out to sea.

If you see the 0Z run come in with a phase just 3 hours earlier guess what? Now we're talking 12"+ central NJ and points north and east.

This is the fragility of the situation folks.

The 12Z GFS is actually a good sign...bring things more in focus...and closer to the coastal region with the storm winding up.

Don't focus on the fine point details focus on the idea and trend. It's a good one.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 73 Comments: 12792
197. originalLT
4:25 PM GMT on December 31, 2013
Still don't like those maps Max. Bernie, by the way is saying about 6-8" for our area, as it looks now.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8010
196. Hurricane614
4:22 PM GMT on December 31, 2013
Quoting 195. Hurricane614:
That's really weird, the graphics in post 190 and 192, don't go together at all, and are almost opposites. In terms of where the heaviest snow is.
Member Since: September 6, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 509
195. Hurricane614
4:20 PM GMT on December 31, 2013
That's really weird, the graphics in post 190 and 192, don't go together at all, and are almost opposites.
Member Since: September 6, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 509
194. trHUrrIXC5MMX
4:19 PM GMT on December 31, 2013
Quoting 193. originalLT:
Post #190, those maps are totally wrong for SW CT. Why would we be singled out for that lack of snow? Makes no sense.


those maps are the 6 hour snowfall... snow per every 6 hour intervals, or course they are much lower in snowfall

those are different from the "total snowfall" maps which depict the possible entire amounts of snow from the first flake that falls up to the last
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
193. originalLT
4:13 PM GMT on December 31, 2013
Post #190, those maps are totally wrong for SW CT. Why would we be singled out for that lack of snow? Makes no sense.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8010
192. trHUrrIXC5MMX
4:09 PM GMT on December 31, 2013

AccuWeather
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
191. trHUrrIXC5MMX
4:05 PM GMT on December 31, 2013
Quoting 190. MAweatherboy1:
12z GFS wasn't awful. Here's a map for the Boston area:



NYC:



Remember, those maps use a 10:1 ratio. I'm assuming 20:1, or at least close to it, so double what you see. QPF for greater Boston is ~.6-.75", less further south.


so sad for NYC :(

look at this... no big change in regard to QPF, GFS btw
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
190. MAweatherboy1
4:04 PM GMT on December 31, 2013
12z GFS wasn't awful. Here's a map for the Boston area:



NYC:



Remember, those maps use a 10:1 ratio. I'm assuming 20:1, or at least close to it, so double what you see. QPF for greater Boston is ~.6-.75", less further south.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8049
189. trHUrrIXC5MMX
3:59 PM GMT on December 31, 2013
Quoting 188. Hurricane614:
Poughkeepsie NY


Ohh, I always see Poughkeepsie listed on my chart for a while now so that must've been you lurking here then
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
188. Hurricane614
3:57 PM GMT on December 31, 2013
Poughkeepsie NY
Member Since: September 6, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 509
187. trHUrrIXC5MMX
3:56 PM GMT on December 31, 2013
Quoting 185. Hurricane614:


I had a big surprise on Christmas eve to. A quick 2 inches, road covered, grass almost gone. There were tons of accidents driving home.

On another note the high on Friday is supposed to be 9 here, and the low -8. Getting firewood ready.

May we know what's your location?
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
186. trHUrrIXC5MMX
3:55 PM GMT on December 31, 2013
Lol... what Bernie Rayno from accuweather does


he says "Recording video now. Shld be on line in about 20 min. Will send link pic.twitter.com/18cnvJTKel"

Im can't wait to see it... he's good with this and has done a great job forecasting
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
185. Hurricane614
3:55 PM GMT on December 31, 2013
Quoting 183. trHUrrIXC5MMX:


remember that one we got for Christmas eve?...that was a mighty tiny snow squall.
I got nearly half inch out of it in just half hour

current radar


I had a big surprise on Christmas eve to. A quick 2 inches, road covered, grass almost gone. There were tons of accidents driving home.

On another note the high on Friday is supposed to be 9 here, and the low -8. Getting firewood ready.
Member Since: September 6, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 509
184. originalLT
3:53 PM GMT on December 31, 2013
Yup, I remember, same here.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8010
183. trHUrrIXC5MMX
3:51 PM GMT on December 31, 2013
Quoting 181. originalLT:
Now, speaking of "snow showers", we really might get some later this afternoon or tonight, if that small clipper holds together as it moves eastward. Take a look at the RADAR in western and central Pa. Now those ARE snow showers!


remember that one we got for Christmas eve?...that was a mighty tiny snow squall.
I got nearly half inch out of it in just half hour

current radar
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
182. trHUrrIXC5MMX
3:50 PM GMT on December 31, 2013
The NWS site has no information about snow accumulations yet for my location...
Im going to see when the winter storm watches are going to be spread around...
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
181. originalLT
3:49 PM GMT on December 31, 2013
Now, speaking of "snow showers", we really might get some later this afternoon or tonight, if that small clipper holds together as it moves eastward. Take a look at the RADAR in western and central Pa. Now those ARE snow showers!
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8010
180. trHUrrIXC5MMX
3:48 PM GMT on December 31, 2013
Quoting 171. Pcroton:
NAM has never liked it, Max, and has remained steady in that.

As usual we're held hostage by the phasing of the northern and southern streams.

Most models holding the phasing off until the system is out to sea.

Most seem to agree the models are holding off too late.

Who knows what will give. At some point we'll see the models all lock in. I was hoping today would be that day...but it's apparent the pieces of energy are still too far apart and underdeveloped for the models to really get a handle on them.

By the time the models get it right it's going to be snowing at this rate.


Im unsure really if we get something good out of the 12z Euro run... I'll leave it at 50-50 chance
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
179. Hurricane614
3:47 PM GMT on December 31, 2013
same as you, 6-10"
Member Since: September 6, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 509
178. trHUrrIXC5MMX
3:47 PM GMT on December 31, 2013
Quoting 177. Hurricane614:


OMG, the literally exact same thing happened to me. Earlier it was heavy snow and wind, with 4-8 inches, and now it's few snow showers! This is driving me nuts!


Im laughing so loud right now seeing this
LOLOL

What does accuweather says about snowfall for your location?
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
177. Hurricane614
3:45 PM GMT on December 31, 2013
Quoting 173. trHUrrIXC5MMX:
this is really silly..take a look at this Larry

TWC also backed off from their previous forecast for Norwalk
now calling for 50% chance of "snow showers"



yesterday night and earlier this morning they said 4-8" of "heavy snow"


OMG, the literally exact same thing happened to me. Earlier it was heavy snow and wind, with 4-8 inches, and now it's few snow showers! This is driving me nuts!
Member Since: September 6, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 509

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I'm just a 21 year old weather graphic geek. Most of you know Max.

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Cranbury
Norwalk, CT
Elevation: 86 ft
Temperature: 42.8 °F
Dew Point: 41.5 °F
Humidity: 95%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 0.0 mph
Updated: 7:42 AM EST on December 28, 2014
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Elevation: 1170 ft
Temperature: 52.9 °F
Dew Point: 52.4 °F
Humidity: 98%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 1.0 mph
Updated: 7:42 AM EST on December 28, 2014

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