Challenges of the Art of Forecasting
ART OF FORECASTING
We always watch the news to find out what's up around town, around the state, around the region, around the country and around the world. As a weather enthusiast I never miss the 2-3 minute weather report, especially the forecast for the days ahead.
It's always about what lies ahead in weather for me and I'm sure it's the case for many of you as you reading this. I always go to find out what's new from the computer weather models like the GFS and EMCWF, the most reliable forecast models. I broaden my inquiry (if you will) when the hurricane season is around.
I always see people in Dr. Master's blog put up pictures of potential severe weather for the days ahead, models depicting big snowstorms, or snowfall forecasts... "We are in the present to only be alive but our lives are set in the future when it comes to weather"
As a forecast is given, errors will always included as confidence decreases in the long run... At this moment one of the top weather headlines if the possible impact of a major snowstorm in the Mid-Atlantic states. As models fight among themselves we here try to come up with an average or consensus until there is not much time or gap between the storm and the location it could potentially impact.
This image below represent a forecast for my area I did in late January
It is highly self-explanatory, the only thing important that is untold is that people forget it's a forecast . By all means I'm not saying it's wrong, but there is less confidence for the weather during that day to happen. As you can see it says there is a chance for snow on Friday Jan 25, although it's there as the main weather event that day, it's not necessarily a mind-blowing cataclysmic event as many weather sites/people and models often hype them as... In fact that snow there did happen, just a dusting for my area.
Pre-Isaac...AL092012's forecast, calling for hurricane intensity as it entered the Eastern Caribbean, (what really happened?)
Never buy a forecast that is over 5 days out... Days 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 are more credible... Even day 5 might be a little shaky.Not always a +5 day forecast is 100% wrong, in fact they can hold on to their prediction up to day 1.
We all can say "Owww!! Look at that huge 928mb low slamming NYC!" as the EMCWF did for Sandy when it was over the Caribbean, a forecast 216 hours out.
216 hours = 9 days... way too far out. Although it was not that off forecast...
Models are becoming better and better every year... But they will take a long time trying to foretell far ahead weather setups...
I hope you enjoyed reading it... Everyone has a different point of view. That one above is mine.
May all enjoy weather forecasting... and of course, to laugh or be mind-blown about are all good stuff. It may excite or frighten you.