Winning the chart numbers... there is an "equal" chance for all.

By: trHUrrIXC5MMX , 12:33 AM GMT on August 01, 2013

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Hurricane Scorecard 2013

Hi everyone, yes Im back to touch up with you some extra things about it, this will be about winning your prediction!

First off, note that we already have four named storms in the Atlantic Basin: Andrea, Barry, Chantal and Dorian

As you know Im the creator of the Hurricane Score Card which lists many hurricane predictions of those who participated.

This is how it's going to work...


If you think you got a number right I urge you to check the following, there are two ways of winning

1. If you submitted a range of numbers, you must get two of them right (out of the three)
2. If you submitted exact numbers, you just have to get one right (of out the three)

Submitting exact numbers have a higher chance for being wrong but you can still bingo. The greater probabilities go for those why submitted range of numbers but again, everyone has an equal chance. Im telling you, there should be many winners out of the 142 of you.
so based on the 2 ways, you can win.


For example, Im going to pick randomly 2 bloggers out of the list to give you a better understanding

a) Aussiestorm: 18-25 named storms, 9-13 hurricanes and 3-6 majors
...Aussie could only win if he gets two of the three predictions right because he did a range prediction

b) OriginalLT: 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 majors
...Mr. LT could only win if he gets only one of the three predictions right


lets assume the 2013 hurricane season numbers end up being 19 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 4 majors...

Aussie wins the range, 19 in 18-25 named storms AND 4 in 3-6 majors
LT wins the exact numbers, he got the prediction of 7 hurricanes right.

Its harder to nail exact numbers than a number within a range, that's why for a range prediction I want 2 of the three and not 1 like in exact number prediction.
Do you understand the rules? Tell me otherwise please.

now, the ULTIMATE WINNER will be the one who wins the entire prediction... either all exact numbers or all range. You will have a "higher regard".

Rewards, I'll make a list of all winners for display in the Main Blog, including any ultimate winners. Please congratulate them and remember that this is only for fun.

If you lose, don't worry, you can try again next year! I urge you to and those who didn't participate to do next season please!

Final Hurricane Season results... Hopefully by December the season will be over and all the storms we end up having will stay the same in the NHC PSA (Post Storm Analysis), hopefully we won't get a storm like Sandy making landfall as a 110 mph hurricane but reanalyzed as a 115 major hurricane. This is a significant change and many of you may be affected if this kind of situation happens, top which I may delay to publish the final results into next year.

Speaking of next year, on April 2nd, the poll will re-open for the new Hurricane Scorecard 2014. more info by then...


Remember, you can always find the hurricane chart under my recommended links menu to the right.


_______________________

Storm Track

Tropical Storm Flossie...
Flossie fizzled out as it neared Hawaii and the TS warnings were cancelled. Nonetheless, heavy rains and some gusty winds impacted Maui.

I would like to share with you some of the pictures Civicane49 (a fellow blogger from Honolulu) sent me. Appreciations extended to him.

From Kailua


Paia, HI


Oahu, HI


Flossie is now gone...the final advisory was written on it by the CPHC.


Hurricane Gil


Gil became a hurricane...no land threat

Thanks for reading!



Atlanta, GA radar



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Atlanta, GA



Locations of Site Visitors

PS. This is how I say goodbye to the long J months... finally over with.
Happy August everyone!

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Quoting 99. Astrometeor:
There have been some wicked hooks tonight on the Great Plains. Kyle posted some pictures of the radar echoes on the main blog, might have to read back a bit, start from around comment #433


not going to the main blog sorry...
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
There have been some wicked hooks tonight on the Great Plains. Kyle posted some pictures of the radar echoes on the main blog, might have to read back a bit, start from around comment #433
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 101 Comments: 10423
Issued: Aug 03, 2013 2:00 pm HST

For the central north Pacific, between 140°W and 180.

1. The National Hurricane Center in Miami Florida is issuing advisories on tropical storm Gil, located 1400 miles east-southeast of Hilo Hawaii, under AWIPS header tcpep2 and WMO header WTPA32 KNHC. Gil is expected to cross 140°W into the Central Pacific Hurricane Center area of responsibility midday Monday.

2. An area of low pressure about 700 miles southeast of Hilo Hawaii continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms, with no increase in organization observed over the past several hours. Conditions are marginally conducive for further development, and this system has a low chance, near 0 percent, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours, as it moves westward at about 10 mph.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected through Monday afternoon.
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting 96. trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Im on my way home... been on 85 for an hour, still half of another to go.

Ring.. think on a doughnut. Saturn s rings, circus maximus, track field, etc


think on a doughnut? Going to need a doughnut then.

LOL
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 101 Comments: 10423
Quoting 95. Astrometeor:
Although, one could argue (wait, Max doesn't like that word, how about "say") that what goes on the finger isn't a ring, more of a "band". But this all comes down to naming, however, the evidence I stated in my response with the source of the dictionary draws the line pretty straight (no pun intended) I believe. Thus, the difference between ring and circle is more of a custom of the persons involved than that of an actual difference. In theory as stated, they are the same. Thesaurus would agree with me there, too.

Care to reply Max?


Im on my way home... been on 85 for an hour, still half of another to go.

Ring.. think on a doughnut. Saturn s rings, circus maximus, track field, etc
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Although, one could argue (wait, Max doesn't like that word, how about "say") that what goes on the finger isn't a ring, more of a "band". But this all comes down to naming, however, the evidence I stated in my response with the source of the dictionary draws the line pretty straight (no pun intended) I believe. Thus, the difference between ring and circle is more of a custom of the persons involved than that of an actual difference. In theory as stated, they are the same. Thesaurus would agree with me there, too.

Care to reply Max?
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 101 Comments: 10423
Quoting 93. trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Yes. You are my cross, my punishment, my daily torture
Lmao


Sure... Anything else you would like Max?
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 101 Comments: 10423
Quoting 91. Astrometeor:


??? Nothing in my argument merits dumb, or similar adjectives. Sheesh.

You need a rest? LMAO


Yes. You are my cross, my punishment, my daily torture
Lmao
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting 89. trHUrrIXC5MMX:
LT... ya see there the speed limit on I-95 is 55 mph...but people don't care and go to 65-75 mph.
Well here we were coming up on I-85 (which connects to I-95 eventually) and on this highway the limit is 70 mph... I saw such number on the sign.
We were going at the traffic speed which is much faster than what it's allowed. .. near 90 mph...yeah!


Who goes the speed limit? I've seen folks here do 80 in a 45 mph construction zone, lol.
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 101 Comments: 10423
Quoting 90. trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Merits something more than? You want dumb, foolish, idiotic. ..which one (lol)
Today is Saturday. ..give me a rest. . I argue with you every day


??? Nothing in my argument merits dumb, or similar adjectives. Sheesh.

You need a rest? LMAO
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 101 Comments: 10423
Quoting 88. Astrometeor:


-_- I believe the substance of my argument merits more than "not so bright" sir...

Aww, no arguing? That stinks. What's wrong?


Merits something more than? You want dumb, foolish, idiotic. ..which one (lol)
Today is Saturday. ..give me a rest. . I argue with you every day
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
LT... ya see there the speed limit on I-95 is 55 mph...but people don't care and go to 65-75 mph.
Well here we were coming up on I-85 (which connects to I-95 eventually) and on this highway the limit is 70 mph... I saw such number on the sign.
We were going at the traffic speed which is much faster than what it's allowed. .. near 90 mph...yeah!
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting 87. trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Not so bright you are
I don't feel like arguing with you today boy


-_- I believe the substance of my argument merits more than "not so bright" sir...

Aww, no arguing? That stinks. What's wrong?
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 101 Comments: 10423
Quoting 86. Astrometeor:
Circle, noun: A ring.
Ring, noun: A circular course.

Source: dictionary.com



Both.


Not so bright you are
I don't feel like arguing with you today boy
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Circle, noun: A ring.
Ring, noun: A circular course.

Source: dictionary.com

Quoting 84. trHUrrIXC5MMX:


The empty space inside. ..
You place a circle or a ring in your gf's 4th finger?


Both.
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 101 Comments: 10423
Awesome place here. Athens is beautiful
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting 83. Astrometeor:


What's the difference?


The empty space inside. ..
You place a circle or a ring in your gf's 4th finger?
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting 80. trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Well it's really a ring not a circle


What's the difference?
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 101 Comments: 10423
I like the "ring" with an "L" in it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting 79. trHUrrIXC5MMX:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/overview_atl/atl_overview .g if
They are using the circle now... I like that
Im going to switch to a circle in my maps as well


Well it's really a ring not a circle
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873

They are using the circle now... I like that
Im going to switch to a circle in my maps as well
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Goog morning. .. Im on my way to Athens, GA

Dorian did regenerate... now a TD... expeced to stay as so and no TS advisories needed
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting 74. originalLT:
Wow, you start school early Astro. Up here the teachers report to school on Wed. Aug. 21. Then the students on Monday the 26th. This is very early for CT. Years ago when I went to school it was always the first day after Labor Day.


We used to start Aug. 21. Then some study came out that said students forget things over summer...so they have been cautiously expanding the school year. Mostly bureaucrats who do it, they have 0% support, only thing that has stopped year-round school is teacher-unions.

The one good thing is that the A/Cs at the school didn't break yesterday, usually they do, perhaps it was because this year has been so cool.
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 101 Comments: 10423
Quoting 74. originalLT:
Wow, you start school early Astro. Up here the teachers report to school on Wed. Aug. 21. Then the students on Monday the 26th. This is very early for CT. Years ago when I went to school it was always the first day after Labor Day.


yeah Aug 26 is kinda early for us... .I don't know about Norwalk yet.
Im going to ask my sister...shell be a sophmore this year
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Wow, you start school early Astro. Up here the teachers report to school on Wed. Aug. 21. Then the students on Monday the 26th. This is very early for CT. Years ago when I went to school it was always the first day after Labor Day.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 69. Astrometeor:


"E" told me that I should've told you that I was indeed skipping school.


I've thought so
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
TS Jebi made landfall today:



Now heading for the mainland:

Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 101 Comments: 10423
And storm reports so far today, check back periodically to see updates as map updates with new info from the SPC page:

Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 101 Comments: 10423
Storm reports from yesterday:

Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 101 Comments: 10423
Quoting 61. trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Astro..get back to class. Aren't you there? Skipping? Dropping out?


"E" told me that I should've told you that I was indeed skipping school.
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 101 Comments: 10423
Quoting 67. trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Really? ??
O.o


You don't have to take the AP test. All schools have regular finals, the AP tests are just added bonuses for taking the class. They are useful for getting out of whole classes in college.
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 101 Comments: 10423
Quoting 66. Astrometeor:


APs aren't finals though.


Really? ??
O.o
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting 65. trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Me going to school after finals??? Never gonna happen


APs aren't finals though.
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 101 Comments: 10423
Quoting 64. Astrometeor:


I only skip school if I have a legit reason, like the end of last year we left school on days we had AP tests, and non-days we went up to one teacher's room the entire day to play games and such.


Me going to school after finals??? Never gonna happen
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting 63. trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Oh ok.
I just thought you were skipping or something.
I know you "so" well...

Go seniors !!!


I only skip school if I have a legit reason, like the end of last year we left school on days we had AP tests, and non-days we went up to one teacher's room the entire day to play games and such.
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 101 Comments: 10423
Quoting 62. Astrometeor:


No school today, lol. School resumes for good Monday.


Oh ok.
I just thought you were skipping or something.
I know you "so" well...

Go seniors !!!
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting 61. trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Astro..get back to class. Aren't you there? Skipping? Dropping out?


No school today, lol. School resumes for good Monday.
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 101 Comments: 10423
Astro..get back to class. Aren't you there? Skipping? Dropping out?
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting 59. trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Guilty. ..guilty. ..guilty! !!!


I'm guiltless, your just sour over my last e-mail from last night and your back pains.
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 101 Comments: 10423
Quoting 58. Astrometeor:


well, it just turned noon here, so when I posted it was still morning.

WHAT DO YOU BLAME ME FOR??? I didn't do anything wrong, I'm just typing away comments several hundred miles away. You can only blame yourself for a hurt back Max. -__-


Guilty. ..guilty. ..guilty! !!!
Maximas poenas tibi dare!!!


Jk
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting 57. trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Its almost 1 pm here...

I blame you for btw


well, it just turned noon here, so when I posted it was still morning.

WHAT DO YOU BLAME ME FOR??? I didn't do anything wrong, I'm just typing away comments several hundred miles away. You can only blame yourself for a hurt back Max. -__-
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 101 Comments: 10423
Quoting 54. Astrometeor:


Morning Max, did you sleep well last night?


Its almost 1 pm here...

I blame you for btw
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting 55. trHUrrIXC5MMX:


No Astro... my back hurts...
Can't really twist


Oh. Sorry for that then. Have a better day then, I hope.
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 101 Comments: 10423
Quoting 54. Astrometeor:


Morning Max, did you sleep well last night?
Quoting 54. Astrometeor:


Morning Max, did you sleep well last night?


No Astro... my back hurts...
Can't really twist
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting 53. trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Thanks. .mom told me about some rain


Morning Max, did you sleep well last night?
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 101 Comments: 10423
Quoting 52. originalLT:
Hi Max, I got 0.98" of rain from that system yesterday--most of it fell between 7pm and 1am last night.


Thanks. .mom told me about some rain
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Hi Max, I got 0.98" of rain from that system yesterday--most of it fell between 7pm and 1am last night.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 49. trHUrrIXC5MMX:


it's wonderland... don't try to trick me... I know


that's why Im not going to reply it...got me a little heated and not helping when trying to sleep.


Oh. Woops. I made Max mad again. Have a good night Max, sleep tight. Don't hold any grudges, just remember:

Quoting 222. Astrometeor:


But, but, but, but....ok, I'll stop the whining Natalie. Still nothing wrong with being shy.

Yo Max, you're not off the hook yet.
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 101 Comments: 10423
One last note... a big celebration across all Costa Rica has started... I wish I could be there

bye now
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873

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About trHUrrIXC5MMX

I'm just a 21 year old weather graphic geek. Most of you know Max.

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Cranbury
Norwalk, CT
Elevation: 86 ft
Temperature: 54.5 °F
Dew Point: 51.9 °F
Humidity: 91%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 0.0 mph
Updated: 6:11 AM EDT on October 22, 2014
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Brooklyn, NY
Elevation: 95 ft
Temperature: 74.1 °F
Dew Point: 60.7 °F
Humidity: 63%
Wind: 5.8 mph from the South
Wind Gust: 5.8 mph
Updated: 4:07 PM EDT on October 14, 2014
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Marietta, GA
Elevation: 1170 ft
Temperature: 46.7 °F
Dew Point: 42.4 °F
Humidity: 85%
Wind: 3.0 mph from the NNW
Wind Gust: 5.0 mph
Updated: 6:11 AM EDT on October 22, 2014

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