I'm just a 21 year old weather graphic geek. Most of you know Max.
By: trHUrrIXC5MMX , 10:59 PM GMT on April 06, 2013
ANOTHER TASTE OF SPRING?
Spring has arrived! Gotta say Phil did not do so good this year with that shadow, perhaps he went to sleep late the night before the big roll for the next day.
ummm, not so fast! Sadly, I said that too soon in my last blog after we hit 20s again last few days. But those days are over (hopefully)
April 6 - 12, 2013
Gusty winds today making those temperatures feel in the low 40Fs for many across the Greater Big Apple. The highs today were in the low 50Fs for the central CWA, upper 50s to the south and upper 40s to the north.
The warmth returns tomorrow, a milder day as we return to those temperatures before the big cold shot. Highs in the low 60Fs for NYC/LI/SW CT and southward, nearly 60F or upper 50s for interior places. Another windy day tomorrow... look at Albany, NY getting blowed with nearly 50 mph gusts.
At night temps should not go below 40s anywhere.
Much warmer Monday... NYC could hit 70F!
All Coastal CT, LI, Interior hudson Valley, Upstate NJ reaching mid 60s. Central NJ from Trenton, to New Brunswick, Staten Island, Elizabeth, Newark, NYC, Paterson and Middletown could reach nearly 70 degrees if not upper 60s. Trenton, Philly and southern NJ are up for over 70 degrees Monday... enjoy this as a mild air mass moves into the area raising temperatures even more for the next day.
Lows in the mid-upper 50s for the southern half, upper 40s to 50F in the northern half of the CWA. Winds should be light Monday night.
Expect NO precipitation, so these next two days are going to be dry. The NWS has been issuing wildfire alerts (red flag warnings) though because of the multiple days without rain making the grounds vulnerable for fire ignitions and spread by the gusty winds. This will continue as well.
Tuesday hitting SEVENTIES!... yes 70s!... Hard to believe.
All across the Big Apple and the entire CWA we could hit over 70 degrees Tuesday, indeed, 70F!
The southern areas like Philadelphia could even reach 75F further down as you get into Baltimore-Washington nearly 80F!. A preview of early summer guys!
Tuesday will be the warmest day we are going to have so far this year, however, it's going to be somewhat humid, especially in the afternoon.
Head to the beaches, parks, cities, etc... enjoy Tuesday.
Same PM low temperatures as Monday
I'll map the highs for Tuesday later on.
Wacky Wednesday-Friday... Some rain with lower temps :(
Wednesday: Reaching mid 60s (still great) across the entire area, however, clouds are moving in by morning and humidity rises to over 60%s in anticipation to a storm system moving from the southwest. The day will remain cloudy.
Lows in the 50s for the southern half and 40s for northern half of the area.
Thursday: Rainy and cooler
Not exact as to when the rain will slide over but expect some light rain across the area, right now chances are low, only 30%. If it does not rain then is going to be all cloudy. Highs will not get to 60F for the 5 Boroughs. Mid 50s for Coastal CT and northward, nearly 60F for NYC, LI Cntrl NJ. Southern NJ will get to low 60s. Philly to Mid 60s. Humid day indeed!
Some breeze going through.
Friday..coolder than Thursday
mid 50s for the northern 2/3 of the area, low 60s for the south. Still unclear as to what the weather could be but for now we think it's going to be cloudy as well.
More updates to come later...
Local Forecast...Look at Tuesday...
Some geography for you to lean about if you are not familiar with New York City, if you are then you'll know better when I discuss including towns not marked in the map.
The hurricane season is 55 days away, we have to start thinking about this guys! Especially if you live in ground zero. Closing in...
NOTE: The listing deadline is August 1st, you still have a lot of time to think about your numbers or change them. Just let me know.
Thanks to all listed. I hope this Atlantic hurricane Season could be one of the many I plan to forecast with your help of course.
The list will be updated again on my new blog next Saturday April 13, 2013.
THE BIG LIST…look for yourself
click picture-link for larger view, this picture is pretty big!
NOTE:A a good friend of mine here on WU, Astrometeor, encourages (and I also second it) that everyone should respect your fellow bloggers' predictions. Everyones' numbers here are right (or wrong) but until when the final numbers come out. It's just a matter of having fun which is the main purpose of me doing this.
How to win?…. simple
Since some of you gave me a range of numbers and some others gave me exact numbers, this is how it's going to work..
Exact numbers… nail at least one of the three categories (meaning either named storms, hurricanes or major hurricanes)
Range of numbers…at least two of the three categories (meaning either named storms, hurricanes or major hurricanes)
If you don't win, don't worry..I'll leave your row as it is…
When the time of tracking storms people (who generally are not well into the subject) ask what are the Tnumbers, ACE or SSHWS…
I put up this for you, explaining all three
Dvorak Technique (DT)
Developed in 1969 by Vernon Dvorak (hence the name), is a system used to estimate the intensity of tropical depressions, tropical storms and hurricanes by only looking at satellite images (infrared or visible imagery). This system is used worldwide, yes also for typhoons in the Western Pacific and tropical cyclones in the Indian Ocean/South Pacific/Australian Region. It's popular nowadays.
In our NHC, we see this many times, especially for developing hurricanes..look at the example below:
Hurricane Rick, 2009
MORE IMPORTANTLY...SUBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS ARE 7.0 AND 7.5
ON THE DVORAK SCALE FROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY...AND THE
OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS HAVE REACHED 7.7 AND A 3-HOUR AVERAGE OF 7.4
DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO. BASED ON THESE DATA..THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 155 KNOTS.
The scale for rating (if you will) storms ranges from 1 to 8.
T1.0 (T is added before the number, and as formally denoted) is an estimation for a weak storm (tropical depression), T5.0 corresponds to a mid-strength category 2 hurricane and T7.0 corresponds to a 160 mph category 5 hurricane.
The NHC takes this (not entirely) into consideration when estimating the intensity of a storm far out to sea without HHs reach. But they base on the ATCF index for the nearly final decision.
(See chart below for DT)
ACE-Cyclone Accumulated Energy
A formula developed by the NOAA NHC to express the activity of tropical cyclones. It's an energy-measuring system for every single storm during it's lifetime but it only applies to storms that become named, meaning tropical storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes only. Previously the system was not used for subtropical storms but now it is… again, it does not apply to storms with sustained winds less than 39 mph (40 mph really).
Here is the (complicated) formula
Here is the easy ("preferred") way
Find the knot-equivalent of the storm, square it and divide it by 10,000.
Eg. 100 mph = 85 kt…. 85x85 = 7,225 / 10,000 = 0.7225
NOTE: The energy of the storm is added only every six (6) hours when the NHC gives out their complete advisory at the following hours: 5AM, 11AM, 5 PM and 11PM EDT… or in the UTC times: 0300, 0900, 1500 and 2100.
It is not added for special advisories, final advisories or when the storm weakens to a TD.
(See chart below)
Hurricane Scale (SSHWS)
It's very common to us, a storm is so based in it's category or where it fits in the scale. A hurricane is a hurricane because it has sustained winds over 74 mph (75 mph really)… not that hard.
Here is the list of how the winds in MPH are converted into Knots and how they produce the energy that fits into the certain ACE criteria and the T-numbers. Also the pressure is given, note that some pressure values are estimated (hence the asterisk*)
Also (for those know know about this) the T-numbers are selected for the MPH winds not knots.
IMPORTANT NHC NOTICE:
April 4: NHC announces changes in the issuance of alerts that is tropical storm and Hurricane advisories. This will be in effect starting on June 1st, 2013
New definition of Hurricane Warning
Hurricane Warning: An announcement that sustained winds of 64 knots (74 mph or 119 km/hr) or higher are expected somewhere within the specified area in association with a tropical, subtropical, or post-tropical cyclone. Because hurricane preparedness activities become difficult once winds reach tropical storm force, the warning is issued 36 hours in advance of the anticipated onset of tropical-storm-force winds The warning can remain in effect when dangerously high water or a combination of dangerously high water and waves continue, even though winds may be less than hurricane force.
The NHC has a sample advisory where a hurricane becomes extratropical but keeping hurricane warnings and still being tracked until the danger is over. Take a look
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued their spring outlook lat week. I came up with my version including the temperatures, precipitation and the danger of flooding across many states due to the high impact from this winter.
In this month we will begin to see the trees blossom.
PLEASE PEOPLE OF THE EARTH SIGN THE PETITION FOR AGREEING ON PROTECTING OUR BELOVED PLANET FROM CLIMATE CHANGE
Please do! Very thankful to those 9450 (including me) who have...
We can make it to 1,000,000,000!!!, don't do it for you but for your now/future kids!
New York City's NWS Office (Upton [Long Island], NY) announced the first Skywarn classes for those interested
Currently, there are three locations, all of them in Long Island. None in CT nor NJ.
They said ion Facebook that they eventually hope to plan to add more classes in deferent locations across the region.
The locations and time…
Location1… Brooklyn, NY at 6:30 PM on April 24 in the NYC Office of Emergency Management
Location2… Bethpage, NY at 7 PM on May 21 in Nassau County OEM
Location 3…Upton, NY at 7 PM on May 29 in the Bookhaven National Laboratory. That's also the NYC NWS office location
for more information go to NYC NWS site, you can register there to take the one closer to your location
Main headlines in Dr. Master's Blog this week
-April Fool's…nice day to forecast doom as some bloggers did.
-Texas storms…see special note #3
-New NHC cyclone alerts
-Gulf States big rain and Florida Severe Weather…see special note #4
1. This week's special thanks goes to Mr. Lee Grenci (Lee, as he likes to be called), a retired Met lecturer who posted very interesting severe weather blogs (mesoscale forecasting) during this past week.I learned so many things when blogs are well explained like this one.
(The first featured WU blogger that quotes me three times)-Thank you Mr. Grenci!
2. Mark your calendar…next week the WMO will announce in a conference with representatives across the world which manes are going to be retired from last year's hurricane season. I'm expecting a replacement for Sandy and possibly to Isaac.
Also on April 10 CSU will release their predictions for this upcoming hurricanes season
3.Nice severe weather tracking Tuesday night. Severe weather watches issued from SW Texas all the way across to Galveston.
San Antonio, Houston and Galveston reported big hail, gusty winds and heavy rain. 2 tornadoes were reported (both close to each other) in the Texas Panhandle in Briscoe county both just before midnight. 37 storm reports.
Houston TX was placed under a severe thunderstorm Warning late at night in April 2. Strong winds and large hail reported there.
4. Big rain from New Orleans to Florida where there was some severe weather. Multiple reports of 2" of rainfall in the Sunshine State
5. I'll like to talk to you a bit about 2 bloggers here on WU besides being very influential to me here everyday, their contributions are worth your time looking at.
-Astonishing and mind-blowing his weather, nature and astronomical pictures as his personal experience with hurricanes are, the blog of pcola57 is something you don't want to miss, I highly recommend to check it out. Some pictures (of the topics above) are unbelievable!
-Some of you nearing the end of high school who seek a future in meteorology (actually there are many here), should go over to take a look at Astrometeor's blog. There he discusses a potential college he might attend to get the meteorology credentials needed, and the life experience he gains in the way.
Just as anyone else who seek a different future, your life starts when you enter college. High School graduation is often called the "Commencement Ceremony". Throw your graduation caps up when you get the chance…it feels so great!
Both fellow bloggers described above are included in the "recommended Links" in the side-menu to the right. Take a look.
Let Spring spring. Enjoy these times!
Stay clean and be nice.
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