Saturday springing Spring

By: trHUrrIXC5MMX , 5:53 PM GMT on March 30, 2013

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Last days of March, what a month of great weather from snow to thunderstorms...

Spring has arrived! Gotta say Phil did not do so good this year with that shadow, perhaps he went to sleep late the night before the big roll for the next day.

NYC Forecast
March 31 - April 5, 2013

Easter is around the corner but wet for us… warm day nonetheless but the big day s the one after it, Monday could be the best day so far this year as far as temperatures; balmy 60F!

Rest of Today
Very comfortable day, great for walking around town, going out to eat, or have fun in the backyard... can't be any better.
Reaching upper 50s from coastal Conn northwards including the counties of Sussex NJ up to Wayne, PA and upper NY state, even warmer for the southern half of the CWA entering into the low 60s. NYC, Long Island, central and south Jersey down to Philly.
Not too cold for the night hours, decreasing to upper 40s all across, Upper NY state down to mid 40s as we make the transition into April.


EASTER SUNDAY...wonderful day, but humid with some showers at night.

Somewhat fresh morning to look for the Easter Bunny, wear some jackets if going out.
Down to low 40s from NYC southward. Upper 30s along coastal CT and Long Island and mif 30s in the interior NY/CT states also Northern New Jersey and PA.
Again, expect tomorrow to be excellent, a great spring day with temperatures near 60s for many in the area, only interior places to remain in the upper 50s.
Things turn ugly tomorrow just after noon when clouds roll in for the NYC metro area from the west. And some showers in the early evening hours until the end of the day. Expecting the rain to end by midnight. Remaining in the low 40s across most of the area with lower temperatures in the far interior places.

I expect more northern places to slide into the 60s.


HAPPY APRIL
Monday April Fools...best of this year so far! Sunny and warm! No joke! Big cool down afterwards... noo!
Clearing morning, but still very humid (above 80% all throughout), expected to gradually decrease to low 40%s.
Monday, yes ugly Monday, but the best day so far to head out, a preview of late spring entering summer. Enjoy the day because that's going to leave, sadly.
All above 60Fs from Philly to NYC...From cities like Philadelphia, Trenton, Middletown, Elizabeth and NYC. Low 60Fs for Coastal Connecticut (from New Haven westwards) and Long Island. Upper 50s across northern NJ and NE PA. Mid 50s for interior Hudson Valley.
Only light breeze expected through this day.

COLD? big kick back to winter-like weather overnight Monday-Tuesday. 35F from Philly to NYC and Long Island! Coastal CT, low 30s for all CT, northern NJ and interior NY. Upper 20s for NE PA!
Also winds pick up a bit, nearly 10 mph making a relative temperature much cooler. Expect some child chills much below freezing
What a big unpleasing surprise this warmth brings... :(

Tuesday through Wednesday
Cold weather returns! Back to the AM 30s for the south and upper 20s for the north and PM highs in the mid to upper 40s for the south and low to mid 40s for the northern half of the CWA... so depressing I know but these will be nice sunny days, no precipitation expected. Winds remain low.

Thursday
A little warmer, reaching mid 50s south of NYC and low 50s north of NYC. Lows in the low 40s to mid 30s from south to north. Colder places across the interior.

Friday pushing into warmer temperatures upper 50s all across the area...
Too far out for details at this time...more updated in the blog comments below as we progress.
-

My CWA


Geographical map
Some geography for you to lean about if you are not familiar with New York City, if you are then you'll know better when I discuss including towns not marked in the map.

The outlook... choosing my area this time


___________________________


HURRICANE SEASON

The hurricane season is 62 days away, we have to start thinking about this guys! Especially if you live in ground zero.

NOTE: The listing deadline is August 1st, you still have a lot of time to think about your numbers or change them. Just let me know.

Thanks to all listed. I hope this Atlantic hurricane Season could be one of the many I plan to forecast with your help of course.
The list will be updated again on my new blog next Saturday April 6, 2013.

THE BIG LIST…look for yourself...thanks to those 69 listed!
click picture-link for larger view, this picture is pretty big!



How to win?…. simple
Since some of you gave me a range of numbers and some others gave me exact numbers, this is how it's going to work..

Exact numbers… nail at least one of the three categories (meaning either named storms, hurricanes or major hurricanes)
Range of numbers…at least two of the three categories (meaning either named storms, hurricanes or major hurricanes)

If you don't win, don't worry..I'll leave your row as it is…

_____________________________________

Spring Outlook

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued their spring outlook last week. I came up with my version including the temperatures, precipitation and the danger of flooding across many states due to the high impact from this winter.



Here in NYC, the merciless winter left…that's it! Warmth is slowly coming, forget about the cold 30s and 40s we used to get up to in the afternoons. In this month we will begin to see the trees blossom.

_____________________________________

PLEASE PEOPLE OF THE EARTH SIGN THE PETITION FOR AGREEING ON PROTECTING OUR BELOVED PLANET FROM CLIMATE CHANGE

Please do! Very thankful to those 8620+ (including me) who have...
We can make it to 1,000,000,000!!!, don't do it for you but for your now/future kids!

____________________________________

SKYWARN CLASSES UP FOR NYC
New York City's NWS Office (Upton [Long Island], NY) announced the first skywarn classes for those interested. More classes to be added, expecting one here in SW CT which I will be attending.



Currently, there are three locations, all of them in Long Island. None in CT nor NJ.
They said ion Facebook that they eventually hope to plan to add more classes in deferent locations across the region.

The locations and time…Look at the numbers labeled to the marks on the map

Location 1… Brooklyn, NY at 6:30 PM on April 24 in the NYC Office of Emergency Management
Location 2… Bethpage, NY at 7 PM on May 21 in Nassau County OEM
Location 3…Upton, NY at 7 PM on May 29 in the Bookhaven National Laboratory. That's also the NYC NWS office location

for more information go to Skywarn NYC NWS site, you can register there to take the one closer to your location

_____________________________________

Main headlines in Dr. Master's Blog this week

-El Nino and La Nina and its atmospheric effects in the hurricane season.
-Pipeline Protesters.
-Hurricane Forecasts and other related information
-Government investments to improve weather forecasting and tracking
-Global Warming, the petition to conserve a planet underground climate change
-Cold blast across the southeast, Virgil last snows and season forecasts.

SPECIAL NOTES:
1. A special thanks to TomTaylor for his precise explanation of certain atmospheric waves, check out his blog. It helped me lots.
These waves are not much known by their name, location or structure to some as he stated in the first paragraph.
Equatorial Rossby waves

2. Please lets behave in the blog, don't make provocative comments leading to self destruction!

3. Be watchful…some time from this week on the WMO (World Meteorological Organization) will announce in a conference with representatives across the world which names are going to be retired from last year's hurricane season. Again I'm expecting a replacement for Sandy and possibly to Isaac.

_____________


I'll have a new blog next Saturday with more updates.
Let Spring spring. Enjoy these times!

Hopefully to those celebrating Good Friday had an awesome time, weather cooperating.
May you all have a great Easter. Hunt the Bunny or eggs.
Stay clean.




MaxWeather
NYC Forecaster
Tropical Awareness



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58. originalLT
6:35 PM GMT on April 01, 2013
Front starting to come thru now, cloudy, showers around, and it has gotten very windy, SW at 20-30mph with gusts well over 40mph.Baro. 29.63"F temp. down to 55.5F after a high of 64F.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7083
57. originalLT
1:55 PM GMT on April 01, 2013
THANKS!!
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7083
56. trHUrrIXC5MMX
1:53 PM GMT on April 01, 2013
Quoting originalLT:
Hi Max, thanks for the support for this idea. Yes I will try to post it, but I'm so "stupid" when it comes to computers! If I have any problems I'll of course contact you.


no one is...

Absolutely, don't hesitate to yell for help...

http://imageshack.us/a/img109/179/hurricaneseason forecast.jpg
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14869
55. originalLT
1:51 PM GMT on April 01, 2013
Hi Max, thanks for the support for this idea. Yes I will try to post it, but I'm so "stupid" when it comes to computers! If I have any problems I'll of course contact you.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7083
54. pcola57
1:21 PM GMT on April 01, 2013
Good Morning Max,
I'm sure folks appreciate you posting the Skywarn classes and locations they are being held..
Hope they arrange one for SW Conn. soon for you..
I can see you teaching those classes one day..
And on Tom's rossby waves,I've yet to read it all but so far very interesting..
Will stop in later there and finish the read..
That front that passed through yesterday day left us with ....a trace of precip..
Almost a no show..
Just some wind and a brief shower..
Didn't hardly test my waterproofed picnic table..Lol
I will stop in again later to check your blog..
Be cool my friend.. :)
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6667
53. trHUrrIXC5MMX
1:13 PM GMT on April 01, 2013
Quoting originalLT:
Morning Max and all. I'm going to try something this Hurricane season, instead of identifying invests starting with , say 90L, I'm going to keep a chart identifying them in a numeric order, starting with 1, then 2, then 3, and so on. Then I, we, can chart or compare at the end of the season, just how many, or what percentage of those invests develops into a tropical system. Is it 40%, 50% of them that develop? I think it will be interesting to see. I don't know why the NHC doesn't do this.


Hey LT... that's a brilliant Idea...
would you upload the chart for as to see as we go though the season or at the end?
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14869
52. originalLT
12:46 PM GMT on April 01, 2013
Morning Max and all. I'm going to try something this Hurricane season, instead of identifying invests starting with , say 90L, I'm going to keep a chart identifying them in a numeric order, starting with 1, then 2, then 3, and so on. Then I, we, can chart or compare at the end of the season, just how many, or what percentage of those invests develops into a tropical system. Is it 40%, 50% of them that develop? I think it will be interesting to see. I don't know why the NHC doesn't do this.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7083
51. trHUrrIXC5MMX
4:48 AM GMT on April 01, 2013
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14869
50. trHUrrIXC5MMX
4:35 AM GMT on April 01, 2013
Anyway..later today I'll be editing my entire blog profile... adding new links of other fellow bloggers and some other weather sites as well, some other things too.

I'll be changing my profile picture once again to the one I really want... I have ready btw. I just need to upload it.

Going to start April fresh...

please if you want to joke around, remember the rules.
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14869
48. trHUrrIXC5MMX
4:22 AM GMT on April 01, 2013
Quoting Astrometeor:
"I took meteorology, but did not challenge me"

Who administered the course?

Hey Max, to think of it this way, you will have a hand in teaching the next generation of people, that is a monumental task and a very important one at that, no matter what subject you are teaching.


it's not the teacher's fault..it's just that the class was very, very basic on all kinds of weather (nothing to depth) plus the class is only half a year long...

You gotta know something about me, any class I ever get to take in school (other than the ones I'm required to) they better be challenging or forget it. Weather class was different, (see my bio for that), just some very few things I learned though, but boring
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14869
47. Astrometeor
4:18 AM GMT on April 01, 2013
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


sleep warm, and loose


you too, blog more with you about your new path later.

buenas noches senor.
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 80 Comments: 8320
46. trHUrrIXC5MMX
4:15 AM GMT on April 01, 2013
Quoting wxchaser97:

I'm going to bed...
I was messing with you earlier. Imho, they are way too low though.


sleep warm, and loose
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14869
45. wxchaser97
4:08 AM GMT on April 01, 2013
Quoting Astrometeor:


You're supposed to be asleep.

Was wondering if one of you were going to see my post or not. At least you respond to my picking.

I'm going to bed...
I was messing with you earlier. Imho, they are way too low though.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 123 Comments: 7893
44. trHUrrIXC5MMX
4:08 AM GMT on April 01, 2013
Quoting wxchaser97:

How dare you have such low numbers!? You're expelled from this competition!

j/k


well, look up in the list, someone calls for 6-10 majors! While other calls for none.
Don't mess with astro...jk
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14869
43. Astrometeor
4:07 AM GMT on April 01, 2013
Quoting wxchaser97:

How dare you have such low numbers!? You're expelled from this competition!

j/k


You're supposed to be asleep.

Was wondering if one of you were going to see my post or not. At least you respond to my picking.
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 80 Comments: 8320
42. wxchaser97
4:05 AM GMT on April 01, 2013
Quoting Astrometeor:
hey max, you should put something in that states that no blogger is allowed to ridicule another blogger for their numbers or risk expulsion from the friendly competition.

just a thought I had.

How dare you have such low numbers!? You're expelled from this competition!

j/k
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 123 Comments: 7893
41. trHUrrIXC5MMX
3:53 AM GMT on April 01, 2013
Astro, yeah I came earlier than expected, I was about 15 miles away from home, the rain was heavy.

Indeed, I'll add your words as to respect everyone else's friendly prediction. I'll credit you for that in my next blog.
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14869
40. Astrometeor
3:41 AM GMT on April 01, 2013
hey max, you should put something in that states that no blogger is allowed to ridicule another blogger for their numbers or risk expulsion from the friendly competition.

just a thought I had.
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 80 Comments: 8320
39. Astrometeor
11:47 PM GMT on March 31, 2013
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
hi, this is Max's sister.
Max told me to let you guys know that he is leaving with some friends and won't be back until tomorrow
He also told me to tell Astro (?) that he will check his blog tomorrow

bye


Thanks for letting me know.

Darn, he just missed it.
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 80 Comments: 8320
38. trHUrrIXC5MMX
11:42 PM GMT on March 31, 2013
hi, this is Max's sister.
Max told me to let you guys know that he is leaving with some friends and won't be back until tomorrow
He also told me to tell Astro (?) that he will check his blog tomorrow

bye
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14869
37. trHUrrIXC5MMX
6:34 PM GMT on March 31, 2013
Hey, LT maybe it's going to start by 3-4 PM

it's past 5 PM...nothing yet

Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14869
36. originalLT
6:21 PM GMT on March 31, 2013
Virga over us now, (SW CT.) should start raining soon., Winds have picked up too, in the 10-20mph range. Baro. falling at 29.99".
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7083
35. trHUrrIXC5MMX
5:46 PM GMT on March 31, 2013
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14869
34. trHUrrIXC5MMX
5:40 PM GMT on March 31, 2013
Balmy day tomorrow... first time this year to be so
Enjoy April Fools


click image for larger view
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14869
33. trHUrrIXC5MMX
2:55 PM GMT on March 31, 2013
would you take this with a big smile tomorrow...although, hmm, yeah, it's Monday



DC Mid 60s, Philly Low 60s and I expect NYC, western Long Island and Coastal Conn to reach 60F
Upper 50s for interior Conn
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14869
32. trHUrrIXC5MMX
2:34 PM GMT on March 31, 2013
another strike at the Northeast

Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14869
31. trHUrrIXC5MMX
2:21 PM GMT on March 31, 2013
Quoting Astrometeor:
Hey Max and others, just wanted to let you guys know that I made it home after a 11 hour drive back to Nashville, TN from Harrisburg, PA.

^That took a while to write, so sleepy here.

Happy Easter Sunday everyone.


Im happy you did get there safely...warm sleep.
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14869
30. Astrometeor
5:42 AM GMT on March 31, 2013
Hey Max and others, just wanted to let you guys know that I made it home after a 11 hour drive back to Nashville, TN from Harrisburg, PA.

^That took a while to write, so sleepy here.

Happy Easter Sunday everyone.
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 80 Comments: 8320
29. trHUrrIXC5MMX
4:41 AM GMT on March 31, 2013
thanks everyone for stopping by...
Im off to bed.. Gnite
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14869
28. trHUrrIXC5MMX
4:34 AM GMT on March 31, 2013
our little guy facing extinction in New England?

Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14869
27. trHUrrIXC5MMX
1:05 AM GMT on March 31, 2013
hey Pcola...thanks
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14869
26. pcola57
11:21 PM GMT on March 30, 2013
Great blog Max,
I know your ready for some spring weather..
Here's something for you...

Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6667
25. trHUrrIXC5MMX
11:09 PM GMT on March 30, 2013
Im going for a nap, be back later tonight
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14869
24. trHUrrIXC5MMX
9:58 PM GMT on March 30, 2013
Quoting originalLT:
Hi Max, I'm keeping my prediction I made on 3-13-13, no matter what has transpired up to August 1st. I love your Hurricane chart, by I think it should end(entrants and revisions that is) on May 31. I don't want to make revision's "on the fly". But it's your "Baby" , you are the boss, and again I commend you for starting it and posting it. It will be interesting for sure.


The heart of the hurricane season (climatologically) is AUG-SEP-OCT... I want to let some of the bloggers here change their mind a little into the game as to what to expect.

look at this example.. from a random blogger let's say

Blogger April forecast 16TS, 7H and 3MH

Hurricane season starts... June 2 storms, July 3 storms = five storms before the peak..meaning by the "E" name...
the SST heats up, favorable environment for a bunch more storms... and 4 months still left

I think the bloggers wants to up their forecasts a little, there could me more activity than what it's thought

same happens with snow, 3-5" in the forecast, the snow starts falling pretty heavy, the accumulations are upped a little after the event started..

that is why I'm letting them update it before the big peak. They can come up with their own after that date but I won't worry anymore.

Thanks anyway LT... great day out here
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14869
23. originalLT
9:44 PM GMT on March 30, 2013
Hi Max, I'm keeping my prediction I made on 3-13-13, no matter what has transpired up to August 1st. I love your Hurricane chart, by I think it should end(entrants and revisions that is) on May 31. I don't want to make revision's "on the fly". But it's your "Baby" , you are the boss, and again I commend you for starting it and posting it. It will be interesting for sure.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7083
22. trHUrrIXC5MMX
7:21 PM GMT on March 30, 2013
Quoting wxchaser97:
Oh and KoritheMan's are 17/9/4
Found that out last night.


I might do them later, idk.


gotcha...

well, have fun if you really want to do that
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14869
21. wxchaser97
7:17 PM GMT on March 30, 2013
Oh and KoritheMan's are 17/9/4
Found that out last night.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The average for tropical storms is 17. I'm not doing hurricanes or major hurricanes right now, that took way too long lol.

I might do them later, idk.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 123 Comments: 7893
20. trHUrrIXC5MMX
7:04 PM GMT on March 30, 2013
I just put in a picture I forgot in the blog..

thanks for stopping by y'all
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14869
19. AtHomeInTX
6:47 PM GMT on March 30, 2013
Good job Max. And Happy Easter to you too. :)
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 459
18. trHUrrIXC5MMX
6:31 PM GMT on March 30, 2013
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Have your considered closing the poll earlier than August? I ask because I have seen polls in other boards that last until May 31rst at Midnight EDT to then start the season and see who wins or get close to the actual nmbers.


Yes I did... The deadline is August 1...
check the hurricane section again if you'd like to see it.

People change their minds based on the activity and the present-future environment for tropical activity as we enter the season, might as well give them a chance for their final numbers, after August 1 I'll close it up.

Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14869
17. Tropicsweatherpr
6:29 PM GMT on March 30, 2013
Have your considered closing the poll earlier than August? I ask because I have seen polls in other boards that last until May 31rst at Midnight EDT to then start the season and see who wins or get close to the actual numbers.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13341
16. trHUrrIXC5MMX
6:26 PM GMT on March 30, 2013
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The average for tropical storms is 17. I'm not doing hurricanes or major hurricanes right now, that took way too long lol.


you actually did the math for that...???
hurricanes and majors are easier...lol
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14869
15. trHUrrIXC5MMX
6:23 PM GMT on March 30, 2013
Quoting originalLT:
Thanks Max, how do you get to be one?


no idea. Wunder Yakuza picked the ones here, some requirements are to be active bloggers, low ban records, to have been here for a long time and take the responsibility...idk about the rest..
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14869
14. TropicalAnalystwx13
6:22 PM GMT on March 30, 2013
Quoting wxchaser97:

I wonder what the mean is for all the categories. I know it would take a while to calculate it, but it would be cool to see the average.

The average for tropical storms is 17. I'm not doing hurricanes or major hurricanes right now, that took way too long lol.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30310
13. originalLT
6:21 PM GMT on March 30, 2013
Thanks Max, how do you get to be one?
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7083
12. trHUrrIXC5MMX
6:19 PM GMT on March 30, 2013
Quoting originalLT:
Sorry for being "dopey" but what are "mods"?


there are like 7 moderators, they monitor/patrol the blog and many others for any "misdemeanors"...
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14869
11. trHUrrIXC5MMX
6:16 PM GMT on March 30, 2013
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Great blog. Let's see how many participate at the end.


The picture looks big now... from 6 I had at the beginning... expecting more to join...

thanks
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14869
10. Tropicsweatherpr
6:15 PM GMT on March 30, 2013
Great blog. Let's see how many participate at the end.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13341
9. Tazmanian
6:10 PM GMT on March 30, 2013
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
The list has been fixed... sorry about that Taz


That's ok
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114075
8. trHUrrIXC5MMX
6:06 PM GMT on March 30, 2013
The list has been fixed... sorry about that Taz

Thanks everyone for your help, takes me hours writing this...
Yes a big list for sure
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14869

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About trHUrrIXC5MMX

I'm just a 21 year old weather graphic geek. Most of you know Max.

Personal Weather Stations

Cranbury
Norwalk, CT
Elevation: 86 ft
Temperature: 35.7 °F
Dew Point: 25.8 °F
Humidity: 67%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 0.0 mph
Updated: 4:07 AM EDT on April 25, 2014
Park Slope, Brooklyn, NY 11215
Brooklyn, NY
Elevation: 95 ft
Temperature: 47.8 °F
Dew Point: 20.8 °F
Humidity: 34%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 0.0 mph
Updated: 4:06 AM EDT on April 25, 2014
Eagle Ridge
Marietta, GA
Elevation: 1170 ft
Temperature: 65.6 °F
Dew Point: 57.1 °F
Humidity: 74%
Wind: 1.0 mph from the ESE
Wind Gust: 7.0 mph
Updated: 4:07 AM EDT on April 25, 2014

About Personal Weather Stations