2013 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON OUTLOOK

By: trHUrrIXC5MMX , 3:40 PM GMT on March 12, 2013

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Although there are still 80 days to the official start of the aforementioned busy season, we are already giving out forecasts as to how many storm, the weather setup in upper levels, possible negative effects...etc.

"It only takes ONE STORM to make the season be memorable..."
e.g. Hurricane Andrew 1992.

In an earlier blog I gave out the range of my forecast numbers, this time I have a more narrowed-down forecast


Figure 1: My forecast compared to TSR and the average for the past three years.

18-20 named storms, this season is expected to follow suit as the last three, it's not out of the question 2013 could stand with those of 2012, 2011, 2010, 1995 and 1887.
I include 20 as the potential high end, based on history of these 3.

These continuous-record seasons began in 2010 after the tropics 'cooled down' activity in 2009. These last three seasons, 1995 and 1887 are the second most active ones only behind the destructive and all-time record breaking 2005.

The reasons as to why 2009 did not continue this trend after the active 2008 were the following;
-El Nino came around in the Pacific, warming up temperatures and creating above normal wind shear in the Atlantic, all the shear created form thunderstorms there moved into the Atlantic as paper shredders.
-High Wind Shear, as described above, in order for any tropical cyclone to develop and strengthen it needs to rise further into the atmosphere, if there is wind shear (some very thing/cold clouds that look like knives) they would cut through the storm therefore limiting it's intensity until the area becomes clear for re-intensification.
Shear is a killer, they can completely annihilate any potential developing storm, look at the example below...



Figure 2: Deadly strong wind shear was 2006 Chris fate. Before this happened overnight, hurricane watches were up for the Bahamas already. It was becoming a major concern for Florida, this storm could also have ended in the Gulf of Mexico, can't think how it would have been if the conditions are favorable.

Just like in the 2009 season, 2006 faced similar conditions.
- Dry air was another factor in 2009, much more than average dry air aloft was coming of the Saharan Desert in Africa and at higher rates/frequency. The MDR is the breeding place for the 60% of all tropical cyclones and 85% of all hurricanes. Not the case that year, for the early season.
Dry air acts as a 'relaxants', not letting instability take place in the atmosphere needed for tropical cyclone genesis and intensification.

-Timing, timing is also a critical component, it was for many storms in 2009. Some of the potential storms developing formed close to land, weakening after landfall, others formed and did not last long until wind shear took it's toll on them. Eg. Ana, Claudette, Danny, Erika, Fred and Henri.

The first named storm, Ana, ended up forming in August! By that time "normally" hurricanes are spinning up and we should be somewhat far into the list.


Figure 3: Hurricane Season 2009 storm tracks.
Nonetheless, Hurricane Bill was a dangerous one that year, so was Ida in Central America.

Out of those four factors above, (potentially some others not discussed) many are not expected to be in place this season, or have minimal impacts.

Since we remain in a 'neutral time' as for the Pacific water temperatures, meaning no in depth into La Nina or El Nino to have any major impacts. With this said Neutral and La Nina conditions are optimal for an above average forecast. No much of wind shear is expected, if any, to be short lived.

Dry air could be a problem, however, it was strongly present las year. Most of the storms formed away or slid away spinning into cyclones from the Main Development Region (MDR). That does not mean much, above average season it could still be as proved last year.


Im still learning from this big topic, I might fall short in some fields within the topic, there is still lots of information I ignore. Ameliorating in a daily basis is vital and it's what makes us expand out knowledge.


From another point of view...

As we near the next hurricane season, which is being aforementioned as another active.busy one, we have to start thinking about where we left that "hurricane emergency kit" or the "evacuation plan" if needed. From Brownsville,TX to Key West, FL to Eastport, ME and all interior states within range all live in a hurricane risk area. We can;t just forget really about hurricanes even if we are in the winter, we don't know if a hurricane could come during a season and change someone's life forever.



We are soon entering spring (March 20), later this month through May is the time for tornado outbreaks which are another more immediate concern.

We all can help reduce the weather related deaths when it comes to both of this killers by just being aware and handing over information.
For example, if tornado watches are issued in a certain region, we know for sure that a tornado could strike anywhere within it, that's why watches are issued in a larger area in the first place. Common sense.

For hurricane alerts, we must be monitoring the situation, for a reason those alerts are up as well as warnings. Please stay informed and aware, if you don't trust what anyone else say to you, find out yourself and dray wise conclusions especially if there is a potential for evacuation.

Let all of us enjoy a great hurricane season, after the nail-biting tornadoes of course!

BE AWARE!

MaxWeather
Tropical Awareness

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63. trHUrrIXC5MMX
10:12 PM GMT on April 20, 2013
Quoting amatuermet:
Hello, here is my weather forecast, after making my analysis of the situation:


Named Storm: 16-24

Hurricanes: 8-12

Major Hurricanes: 4-6


got it...
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
62. amatuermet
12:49 PM GMT on April 18, 2013
Hello, here is my weather forecast, after making my analysis of the situation:


Named Storm: 16-24

Hurricanes: 8-12

Major Hurricanes: 4-6
Member Since: April 18, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 17
61. Tropicsweatherpr
8:16 PM GMT on March 20, 2013
After I made an analysis about all the factors you can add my numbers. 16/8/3.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14548
60. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
6:38 PM GMT on March 14, 2013
trHUrrIXC5MMX has created a new entry.
59. trHUrrIXC5MMX
4:07 AM GMT on March 14, 2013
3/14
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
58. trHUrrIXC5MMX
3:31 AM GMT on March 14, 2013
Quoting SPLbeater:
I like looking at the pictures. :P

Oh and uh, I believe we will see 18-7-3.


alright' I'll keep you in mind when I update my chart..thanks
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
57. SPLbeater
3:27 AM GMT on March 14, 2013
I like looking at the pictures. :P

Oh and uh, I believe we will see 18-7-3.
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
56. trHUrrIXC5MMX
2:58 AM GMT on March 14, 2013
Quoting Astrometeor:
Thanks for the post Max, I thought about participating in your survey, but hurricanes aren't my thing, I have hardly any idea what they talk about sometimes. Maybe next year I will do a prediction.

My mother doesn't really like how they do it. In her opinion, "they should just make a prediction and stick with it, no changing or anything. How do you improve if, you are constantly changing after the weather gives you hints? That's like cheating on a test."


ok, about the first two lines, it's up to you, not everyone here knows what they base their numbers on, just a random prediction, while some others do.

botton lines, I don't know what to say. Sounds a little severe to me.
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
55. Astrometeor
2:55 AM GMT on March 14, 2013
Thanks for the post Max, I thought about participating in your survey, but hurricanes aren't my thing, I have hardly any idea what they talk about sometimes. Maybe next year I will do a prediction.

My mother doesn't really like how they do it. In her opinion, "they should just make a prediction and stick with it, no changing or anything. How do you improve if, you are constantly changing after the weather gives you hints? That's like cheating on a test."
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 101 Comments: 10417
54. trHUrrIXC5MMX
2:41 AM GMT on March 14, 2013
Note:

If any one makes changes in their forecasts, please let me know.
I'll be updating the graphic every once in a a while during each week...


please contribute, I'll add you in.
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
53. trHUrrIXC5MMX
2:27 AM GMT on March 14, 2013
Quoting wxchaser97:

Of course, at least some of us will be revising our predictions in May or late April.


sure thing... let me know if you make changes though..
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
52. wxchaser97
2:22 AM GMT on March 14, 2013
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Latest/fresh score card... 27 people joined...
Thanks to all

click it for larger size

Of course, at least some of us will be revising our predictions in May or late April.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7958
51. trHUrrIXC5MMX
2:15 AM GMT on March 14, 2013
Latest/fresh score card... 27 people joined...
Thanks to all

click it for larger size
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
50. trHUrrIXC5MMX
1:35 AM GMT on March 14, 2013
Quoting Agent00Goat:
Recent member here, but I've been following you folks awhile. I'm just going to throw in some random numbers for fun.

19N-12H-2M


Welcome to the blog! I'll add you in..
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
49. Agent00Goat
12:23 AM GMT on March 14, 2013
Recent member here, but I've been following you folks awhile. I'm just going to throw in some random numbers for fun.

19N-12H-2M
Member Since: February 13, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1
48. trHUrrIXC5MMX
11:19 PM GMT on March 13, 2013
Quoting Doppler22:

Quite alot of forecasts there.... It'd be interesting to pull this picture back up in November to see who was the closest


indeed
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
47. Doppler22
11:18 PM GMT on March 13, 2013
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Thanks to the 20 people who participated in my poll...
still open for more, I'll expand the graphic, that's not a problem...
may I have at least one mod listed in?


click picture for larger size...

Quite alot of forecasts there.... It'd be interesting to pull this picture back up in November to see who was the closest
Member Since: February 13, 2012 Posts: 11 Comments: 3816
46. trHUrrIXC5MMX
9:32 PM GMT on March 13, 2013
Quoting WunderGirl12:


Max - I could NOT see the picture you posted. :-( Can you save it and make it a WunderPhoto??

Thanks!!

WUGIRL12


it would be the same...how come you can't see it?
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
45. WunderGirl12
8:58 PM GMT on March 13, 2013
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Thanks to the 20 people who participated in my poll...
still open for more, I'll expand the graphic, that's not a problem...
may I have at least one mod listed in?


click picture for larger size...


Max - I could NOT see the picture you posted. :-( Can you save it and make it a WunderPhoto??

Thanks!!

WUGIRL12
Member Since: January 9, 2011 Posts: 24 Comments: 812
44. trHUrrIXC5MMX
8:07 PM GMT on March 13, 2013
Thanks to the 20 people who participated in my poll...
still open for more, I'll expand the graphic, that's not a problem...
may I have at least one mod listed in?


click picture for larger size...
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
43. trHUrrIXC5MMX
6:52 PM GMT on March 13, 2013
thanks to you both, I'll have you listed as well.
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
42. WunderGirl12
2:01 PM GMT on March 13, 2013
I'd guess at:

18/5/3
Member Since: January 9, 2011 Posts: 24 Comments: 812
41. SFLWeatherman
1:50 PM GMT on March 13, 2013
This is waht i say for Hurricane season 2013!



Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4908
40. trHUrrIXC5MMX
12:50 PM GMT on March 13, 2013
Quoting robintampabay:
Max I will go with 16-8-3


I'll put you in this afternoon, thanks
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
39. robintampabay
12:49 PM GMT on March 13, 2013
Max I will go with 16-8-3
Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 166
38. trHUrrIXC5MMX
12:42 PM GMT on March 13, 2013
if anyone else wants to be included, just tell me your thoughts for this hurricane season.I'll add you in as soon as I can


click on image for larger view...
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
37. MahFL
12:12 PM GMT on March 13, 2013
Here is my guess based on a percived active year.

17-22 named storms
6-8 hurricanes
2-3 major hurricanes

Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 3684
36. trHUrrIXC5MMX
4:25 AM GMT on March 13, 2013
Quoting AussieStorm:
16-22 named storms
8-12 hurricanes
1-4 major hurricanes
1 Cat 5 Hurricane.

The difference in the SST around the equator compared to N40 will be the difference this year in allowing more up-drafts and all allow Hurricanes to deepen quicker, hence why I think at least 1 Cat 5 Hurricane, possibly July/August. I also think we need to watch how hot it becomes in India and east towards Africa as the Indian Monsoon will effect how busy the ATL Hurricane season will be. Also of course how much rain Central and Northern Africa gets to keep SAL levels down.


whoa!! 22 as the high end?, alright
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
35. AussieStorm
4:18 AM GMT on March 13, 2013
16-22 named storms
8-12 hurricanes
1-4 major hurricanes
1 Cat 5 Hurricane.

The difference in the SST around the equator compared to N40 will be the difference this year in allowing more up-drafts and all allow Hurricanes to deepen quicker, hence why I think at least 1 Cat 5 Hurricane, possibly July/August. I also think we need to watch how hot it becomes in India and east towards Africa as the Indian Monsoon will effect how busy the ATL Hurricane season will be. Also of course how much rain Central and Northern Africa gets to keep SAL levels down.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15961
34. trHUrrIXC5MMX
3:11 AM GMT on March 13, 2013
Quoting txjac:


I like the way wxchaser thinks ...I go with what they have


just to clear out, your numbers are the same as Chaser's?
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
33. txjac
3:05 AM GMT on March 13, 2013
Quoting wxchaser97:
Ok I'll give my numbers now.

16-20 named storms
8-10 hurricanes
1-3 major hurricanes

Still doing my blog on it though.


I like the way wxchaser thinks ...I go with what they have
Member Since: April 24, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 2568
32. trHUrrIXC5MMX
3:02 AM GMT on March 13, 2013
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Is there a date when the poll closes? I will post mines on April 1rst.


it can go all the way into June first... take your time, there is no rush.
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
31. Tropicsweatherpr
3:01 AM GMT on March 13, 2013
Is there a date when the poll closes? I will post mines on April 1rst.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14548
30. wxchaser97
2:47 AM GMT on March 13, 2013
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


ok that was unexpected, but thanks.... I'll wait for your blog

K, I felt like giving my preliminary numbers as you're doing your chart thingy.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7958
29. trHUrrIXC5MMX
2:45 AM GMT on March 13, 2013
Quoting wxchaser97:
Ok I'll give my numbers now.

16-20 named storms
8-10 hurricanes
1-3 major hurricanes

Still doing my blog on it though.


ok that was unexpected, but thanks.... I'll wait for your blog
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
28. wxchaser97
2:44 AM GMT on March 13, 2013
Ok I'll give my numbers now.

16-20 named storms
8-10 hurricanes
1-3 major hurricanes

Still doing my blog on it though.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7958
27. trHUrrIXC5MMX
2:39 AM GMT on March 13, 2013
Quoting WxGeekVA:
14 to 18 names
6-9 canes
2 majors
Quoting weatherh98:
18-20 named
7-9 hurricanes
2-4 majors


I'll have both of you and anyone else tomorrow...in the morning maybe.
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
26. weatherh98
2:35 AM GMT on March 13, 2013
18-20 named
7-9 hurricanes
2-4 majors
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
25. WxGeekVA
2:16 AM GMT on March 13, 2013
14 to 18 names
6-9 canes
2 majors
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3476
24. trHUrrIXC5MMX
2:14 AM GMT on March 13, 2013
Latest list
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
23. pcola57
10:22 PM GMT on March 12, 2013
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


yes, you found yourself in there!
Let me know if you want to change your numbers anytime..I'll be updating it everyday


Ok Max..
But I'm gonna stick with mine..no changes for me.. :)
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6877
22. trHUrrIXC5MMX
10:12 PM GMT on March 12, 2013
Quoting pcola57:
Cool Score Card Max !!
This outta get interesting.. Lol..


yes, you found yourself in there!
Let me know if you want to change your numbers anytime..I'll be updating it everyday
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
21. pcola57
10:10 PM GMT on March 12, 2013
Cool Score Card Max !!
This outta get interesting.. Lol..
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6877
20. trHUrrIXC5MMX
9:56 PM GMT on March 12, 2013
Quoting Doppler22:
May u add me to ur picture?

15-17 / 7-10 / 2-4


of course! I'll add anyone who wants to be added.
Also if anyone wants to change their numbers just let me know...
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
19. Doppler22
9:54 PM GMT on March 12, 2013
May u add me to ur picture?

15-17 / 7-10 / 2-4
Member Since: February 13, 2012 Posts: 11 Comments: 3816
18. PedleyCA
9:45 PM GMT on March 12, 2013
18/6/3 Atlantic Region
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 5999
17. wxchaser97
9:44 PM GMT on March 12, 2013
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
SURVEY

I have been thinking on trying to come up with a list of all the possible outcomes for the Atlantic tropical activity.

The only way I am able to do it is by having anyone who would like to participate to shout out their forecast. I have a list where Im putting it all together in alphabetical order, in that way we all can compare our forecasts with each other...

So what I would like to know is if any is willing to give their own forecast of the possible named storm, hurricanes and major hurricanes we could see this year in the Atlantic basin.

I'll add all the ones I get or remove the ones you ask me to. So far I have some, a broader list would be great...

Again I'll remove anyone who doesn't want to be on it or add in.

I have some thus far... who else want's to participate?
If you want to go to my blog to tell me it's fine...



I'll keep updating it as soon as I can

I'll be hopefully releasing mine this weekend.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7958
16. trHUrrIXC5MMX
9:38 PM GMT on March 12, 2013
SURVEY

I have been thinking on trying to come up with a list of all the possible outcomes for the Atlantic tropical activity.

The only way I am able to do it is by having anyone who would like to participate to shout out their forecast. I have a list where Im putting it all together in alphabetical order, in that way we all can compare our forecasts with each other...

So what I would like to know is if any is willing to give their own forecast of the possible named storm, hurricanes and major hurricanes we could see this year in the Atlantic basin.

I'll add all the ones I get or remove the ones you ask me to. So far I have some, a broader list would be great...

Again I'll remove anyone who doesn't want to be on it or add in.

I have some thus far... who else want's to participate?



I'll keep updating it as soon as I can
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
15. MAweatherboy1
9:31 PM GMT on March 12, 2013
Thanks Max!
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7926
14. trHUrrIXC5MMX
8:21 PM GMT on March 12, 2013
Quoting VR46L:
Hey !
Nice job

16/7/4 My prediction !!


Sounds great...
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
13. VR46L
8:19 PM GMT on March 12, 2013
Hey !
Nice job

16/7/4 My prediction !!
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6950

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I'm just a 21 year old weather graphic geek. Most of you know Max.

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