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2014 Hurricane Season. Give in your predictions!

By: trHUrrIXC5MMX, 1:36 PM GMT on March 31, 2014



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Update: April 4 at 3:35 AM
Severe thunderstorms across the Lower Mississippi River overnight into the morning today


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HURRICANE SCORECARD

Hello everyone from WU!
Im happy to announce that today is the official day in which the poll opens for you to give in your prediction for the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season.
One more time I would like to serve you keeping up with a list of the bloggers who are wishing to participate.

Last year 142 of you tried and 15 of those were winners. Let's go for another try since last hurricane season was a bit deceiving for me and many forecasting big.
Please read through the information below as there are some important points regarding the easy process.



I hope it's understandable and clear the message for you, as said in the graphic above this is a team effort. I would like you to take your time to give the right forecast. The time is long for you to do so.

You have THREE MONTHS of room for your predictions to be in, even if you want an update of it to be there as well there is time.

Disclaimers:

Please remember that sometimes I may not be around the main blog to catch your predictions for those wanting to be listed so please come to my blog and drop them here. I will surely see them and list you!

I'll be going around from this time on catching as many as I can everywhere outside this blog, IF yours prediction is missing it means i did not see it or you don't want to be included.

The pool closes on July 1. I won't add in or update your forecast after this date because it could be considered cheating and unfair for the other buddies.

I may drop you if you seek constant update of your forecast... this may make me tired of if you try to do so. It's not fair for others who want to join in for the first time and someone taking the time away just for themselves.

Don't worry! I have some friend here who will also go out and search for those predictions I may miss listing.

Every 2 weeks expect an update to the list. Again if I miss your prediction please come in and leave a note in the comment section below.
The scorecard will be updated at the beginning and middle of the month.


WHO WINS?

Same process as last year, take a look below:



I will take my time to designate a winner, trust me, I won't do a mistake about this for you.

If we run into a situation where a storm is possibly stronger than it actually was, like Sandy (designated a major hurricane port facto) then we have to hold the announcement to the winners next year until the National Hurricane Center issues the Post Storm Analysis on the storm. This may be delayed for a while.

For now let's just have fun and enjoy this second try you have! For those who won last year this is your second chance for a double win!!

The new look of "THE SCORECARD".
I took my time to design a new scorecard for you, this time yo won't be listed in alphabetical order as I did last year but in the order I get your predictions.

You will be given a reference number which will also appear on the chart next to your name. When the list becomes too long and it turns a bit difficult to find people I will track you by this reference number. I hope you can remember it.

There are four predictions already listed, myself is included.
Please feel free to join.



I hope I can break last year's 142 predictions.

More information coming later. But this is pretty much how it's going to work. "Lets have a fun long ride once again towards the hurricane season!"



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On April 1st, many of the NWS office websites will transition to a new webpage still under development.

Hurricane Scorecard

Updated: 7:35 AM GMT on April 04, 2014

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Pushing more into spring-like weather but not for many of us

By: trHUrrIXC5MMX, 4:50 PM GMT on March 29, 2014





Date changed... expect a new blog today with the information




SPRING COMING?

Update: 4:35 PM March 30
Significant rainfall in the northeast coast


Heavy rain to sweep the northeast dirty roads this weekend
Anywhere from New Jersey to Boston, MA expect over 2 inches of needed rain.
It could turn a bit risky for the NYC area to Boston where 3" or more could fall increasing the changes for flooding along low lying areas, poor drainage streets or even streams flowing by. Know your surroundings.

The Drought Monitor placed much of the southwest Connecticut under drought conditions so this rain is very beneficial.

The NWS issued widespread flood watches for the area in advance. Notice the vast area covered. In the northern portions where it's cold enough to support heavy snow winter storm watches and advisories have been issued as well.

Current NWS alerts


Again, accumulations of 2 or more inches for the tri-state area possible through April 1.


Current radar, rain bands slowly entering the area


more updates to come later

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Update: March 29 at 8:40 PM

North Carolina under tornado watch




Severe storms continue today for the southeast



The storms that were impacting Louisiana and Mississippi yesterday have moved across Alabama and Georgia overnight and now threatening Central Florida where tornado watches haste been posted for Tampa, Gainesville Orlando, Melbourne, Daytona Beach and Cape Canaveral.

This threat remains in effect up to 5 PM.


Stay on top of today's weather updates if you live within the threatened area.

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Where is winter making presence?

Winter's not over for the upper plains, a storm expected to evolve into blizzard in parts of eastern South Dakota and pasts of southeastern Minnesota.
Rapid City, St. Cloud, Fargo and Duluth are some of the big cities under the threat for several inches of snow.




-

Note: 2014 Hurricane season predictions

A new blog, the next one, will be coming out on April 2nd which will be discussing the important event of starting the long hurricane predictions' trek.
The hurricane scorecard is ready to be released on this date with additional information about the process.
I can't wait to make this known to you, stick around.


Thanks for visiting! Feel free to leave a comment below.

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On April 1st, many of the NWS office websites will transition to a new webpage still under development.

NYC NWS first Skywarn spotter classes' schedule is out, take a look for your near attending location
The cost is $free. I may be going to Danbury's WUconn, the closest one for me.

Spring Hurricane Scorecard Winter Weather NWS

Updated: 4:55 AM GMT on March 31, 2014

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Major storm possible for the northeast?

By: trHUrrIXC5MMX, 6:40 PM GMT on March 22, 2014



Update: March 28 at 11:35 PM
Stromg storms hitting the south





Current NWS Alerts
The italicized headings represent alerts for marine areas not land areas which are upright. I know the graphic looks a little cluttered with headings



Snowfall forecast

Note: This is the last winter weather snowfall forecast graphic I'll do for this winter season. Unless this storm is forecast to shift eastwards increasing the snowfalls amounts significantly this current graphic will remain unchanged or if we get the threat of another spring snow storm later.





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Snow returns next week... from a potentially dangerous storm!
img
src="http://models.weatherbell.com/news/gfs_20140 32200_pres_uv10m_east2.gif">

This is today's 00z run of the GFS (American) model. It depicts a storm exiting by Georgia and soon after starting to explosively deepen. Yes, explosively deepening to hurricane force.

Many weather models depict a storm offshore Cape Cod, MA as a violent nor-easter with pressures in the mid 950s mb. However, the worst threat from this storm appears to remain offshore though Cape Cod and southeastern Maine could be up for some strong winds from this mid week storm next week.

This is the current forecast from the NWS... the strongest winds remain offshore. Coastal Flooding and beach erosion are likely



As far as snow goes, the threat remains for southern New England and pasts of Maine. Interior places will receive snow but it appears to be less than casta areas from Delaware to Maine.

I'll have a snowfall graphic as we near the event... on Monday possibly.

Please check your weather forecast closely if you live anywhere in the Northeast. It is still possible for this storm to shift in either direction as we remain 2-3 days out. If the storm path shifts closer to the coast then we may be looking for a potentially dangerous blizzard with near hurricane force winds.

Or, the storm may shift further out to sea limiting the snowfall much further.
Again, stay tuned for updates as we go.

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Passing the Susquehanna River on Amtrak - January 30, 3014


This was a clip I recorded of the semi-covered seas of the basin. We had snow on grounds all trip long. It was a great trip!


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In 11 days:
2014 Hurricane Scorecard... stick around!

Updated: 3:36 AM GMT on March 29, 2014

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3 additional winter storm threats ahead, one is out there. Yes, weary NE US is up!

By: trHUrrIXC5MMX, 4:11 AM GMT on March 18, 2014


Happy St. Patricks day!


HELLO SPRING?

Update: 12:20 AM March 20
Potential snowstorm for the northeast possible next week
Still very early for details but the potential is there at this time

Stay tuned for latest updates
--


We transition into the Spring Equinox this Thursday, March 20th at 16:57 UTC (12:57 PM EDT), so with this in mind, will weather play accordingly?
You answer that yourself, Im going to give you some hints.

This relentless winter weather patten still continues across much of the nation.
Warm and Dry for the West coast, cold and wet for the east and a mix in between of both. At least snow as we enter spring temperatures for many locations in the east coast will be going like a roller coaster, this is good or bad depending on your judgement.

Having temperature swings like this, besides posing a risk for sickness it also brings the threat of snowstorms to roll across areas where the conditions may be just right for big dumps of snow just causing extra headaches to travelers, businesses and to the cities as a whole.

There are three threats for snow during the next upcoming days: this and early next week.

Threat 1.
As mentioned in the blog heading, the storm is out there, soon to cause problems in the North Central States.



Upper Plains states like South Dakota, Minnesota, and Wisconsin are up for significant snowfalls during the next 24 hours.
The Minneapolis-St Paul area could receive 3-5 inches, snowfalls increase as you go up Interstate 94 into St. Cloud 6-12" there.

The worst appears for the Duluth (MN) area to Ironwood, MI... a foot (or some more) of snow is possible across this region including northern Wisconsin.

The storm will be slowly weakening as it enters the area but is will be strong enough to bury some streets possibly leaving people stranded if they don't take the needed precautions.



Threat 2.
This will be a storm coming down from Canada entering the US by the Rocky Mountains, as of snow the storm appears to be weak thus bringing only light snowfall accumulations from Montana to Michigan.
Cities like Bismarck, Minneapolis, Cedar Rapids, Milwaukee, Chicago and Detroit may be up for light to moderate snowfall accumulations from this quick moving storm by late this week.

Stay tuned to your forecast weather for details.


Threat 3.
It just gotta be the Northeast, isn't it? And Midwest
Early next week, there is the possibility for snow across the major northeast cities from a storm rolling in from the Midwest.

Another storm dripping down from Canada will be bringing snows from the Upper plains down to the Ohio River Valley area into the Mid atlantic and Northeast. In the interior the storm will be weaker only bringing light snows to a large area there but possibly heavier snows as it moves closer to the coast.

The scenario will be the following:
After the storm discussed in threat 2 moves along and out of the picture, there will be room for the arctic high to build down bringing that really cold air needed for snowstorms.



The image above is the 18z 3/17 GFS run at 204 hours (March 26)
How many times have we seen this patten? Arctic high dropping down after a storm moves by leaving room for the cold to expand increasing the chances for a storm (from the west) to roll along its southern boundary and possibly turning north as it exits the coast bringing snowfalls to the big cities.
This pattern has happened so many times this winter and will continue to happen.

For this possible storm the snow threat appears to be from Virginia to southern New England so along I-95 from Richmond to the DC area, Baltimore, Wilmington, Philadelphia into New York City to Providence all the way to Boston (probably on the northern edge) and all the cities in the interior like Hartford, Albany, NY State Thruway, State College, Pittsburg etc. It is too early to talk about the details and it is still unknown if any will be getting snow actually since the recent snow storms have missed southern New England. We are a week away still.

There is also a chance for this to be moved with rain along coastal areas or just rain. Stay tunes for updates as we go on.

As of now, this is how things look. Again, just preliminary


As you see, we still have a long winter ride to get done with.
Most of us want spring all I can say is to be patient.





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In two weeks:
2014 Hurricane Scorecard... stick around!

Winter Weather Spring

Updated: 4:22 AM GMT on March 20, 2014

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Storm of the century 21 years later. Wild weather continues. My 100th blog.

By: trHUrrIXC5MMX, 1:27 PM GMT on March 13, 2014



March 16 - 5:55 PM Update
MID ATLANTIC SNOWSTORM
Winter storm alerts expanded




STORM OF THE CENTURY - 21 YEARS



It was today 21 years ago when nature challenged many along the east coast from Alabama to Maine.

A extremely destructive storm brought hurricane force wind gusts across a vast area in the east, some even reaching hurricane category 2 strength. Record snowfall over 40" across the high terrains in southern Appalachians as the storm there evolved into a devastating blizzard.


This is Asheville, NC. Many cities nearby looked like this or worse.

In the south::

Record setting extreme snowfalls were reported in Chattanooga, TN where 2 to 4 feet of snow accumulated. Down I-75 into Atlanta, Georgia just under a foot of snow causing complete shut down of the city. Same went for Birmingham, Alabama where 13" of snow were measured.


North Carolina

Locations north Georgia, eastern Tennessee, western South and North Carolina and even Virginia realized they were in a true blizzard...something that rarely happens across the area.

Here is what the Georgia NWS (FFC) says regarding this storm:
In 1993, the "Storm of the Century" produced record amounts of snow across north Georgia. Wind gusts near 65 mph across extreme north Georgia produced blizzard conditions as visibilities dropped to zero in many areas. Total snowfall by late evening averaged 18 to 24 inches from Rome to Clayton with near 30 inches from Fannin to Union Counties. Snow drifts up to 10 feet high were reported. In Murray, Whitfield and Gordon Counties in northwest Georgia, damage estimates to businesses and homes were over $300 million. Over 120 carpet businesses in northwest Georgia were destroyed or damaged from high wind or the weight of heavy snow. Over 90 chicken houses were destroyed in north Georgia killing at least 1.3 million chickens. Thousands of trees were uprooted with damage costs of wood products and cleanup estimated at $5 to $10 million. Travel across extreme north Georgia, especially along the I-75 corridor, was brought to a standstill for up to a week following the blizzard conditions.

In Florida, the damage was caused by a different type of weather, still as destructive, they were not spared.

A very strong and large squall moved through Florida causing extensive damage. Winds reported to be over 100 mph with the storm. 11 tornadoes touched down, three of them EF2 killing 5 people altogether. Dangerous waves measuring as high as 12 feet (some higher than those of actual hurricanes) came in the early morning of March 13 crashing ashore with little warning flooding homes and even killing people in their sleep. This storm was very uncommon for Floridians, as the death toll in the state rose to 47.

High waves also struck Louisiana and Mississippi.


Tampa, FL

In Cuba, to where the squall line moved into, caused extensive damage as well. 10 people died and the total damages total to about $1 billion.

Many, if not all, states in the south were caught by surprise placing themselves in emergency.

In the north:
In the north the storm completely broke wild. Major blizzard conditions developed and intensified from an already violent storm with a pressure around 960mb.

Snowfalls over 3 feet were reported in West Virginia, New York and New Hampshire. Baltimore, MD reported nearly a foot, over a foot in NYC and in Trenton, NJ. Over 20" in Worcester, Mass and Pittsburg, PA.
Washington DC reported 6.6" of snow.

Strong hurricane force wind gusts were reported in in many locations. 81 mph reported in Boston, Mass.



Indeed this was a storm for the ages... we don't know when this may happen again...

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Possible severe weather starting this upcoming saturday across the south:
Oklahoma, Texas, Arkansas and Louisiana play attention to the clouds!




Yet one more round of snow possible as we start the workweek next week.
Threat includes Washington DC - Baltimore - Philadelphia - New York City - Hartford - Providence - Boston - Portland.
Things are still too unsure about exactly where the snow is going to significantly accumulate but the threat is there.
Also, lots of things can change from now as models keep changing their minds in future weather from run to run.


---

This is my 100th blog...
I am pleased to have reached this milestone in underground... 100 blogs, 100 chapters of stories, wonders and just fun. It's been a long ride here and it just keeps getting longer.


Thanks for visiting! Feel free to leave a comment below.


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東日本大震災
March 11, 2011


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HURRICANE SCORECARD 2014

The new scorecard has been completed! The three first predictions are listed...
Take a peek at the new look!

Updated: 11:41 AM GMT on March 17, 2014

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JAPAN... Remembering Tohoku and Fukushima 2011

By: trHUrrIXC5MMX, 2:48 AM GMT on March 11, 2014


IN MEMORIAM - March 11, 2011

***
THIS BLOG IS DEDICATED TO THE VICTIMS OF THE RAGE OF NATURE...
***

An extremely powerful attack no matter how invulnerable they are.
For them... keep in your prayers




2:50 PM Update - March 11
Northern New England major snowstorm
Expect blizzard conditions



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東日本大震災
March 11, 2011



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Updated: 6:48 PM GMT on March 11, 2014

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Snowstorm looming for Northeast next week. Prayers for China and Malaysia Jet crash.

By: trHUrrIXC5MMX, 8:47 PM GMT on March 08, 2014


March 11, 2011: Remembering Japan on that fateful time almost 3 years ago. Keep the victims in your prayers


Update: 9-March 4:10 PM
Snowfall swath has been shifted north... keeping an eventual rain to snow change over from Philly to Boston.

Baltimore down into Washington DC will be up for plain rain. Same for Mass Cape Cod and Nantucket. Perhaps the Long Island forks (Montauk) may also be up for all rain but decided not to include it at this time.

Notice: There is a special shade for NYC and areas north and west where the change over to snow may occur sooner than for eastern areas of southern New England



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A new storm looming for mid-week next week... before the Ides of March.

8 PM Update - Weather Event
Tuesday-Wednesday for Midwest and Wednesday-Thursday for Northeast


Please stay tuned to the latest forecasts. I will try to keep up with the updates as we go through the next few days. Many things could change in the meantime.

___

GRIEF IN ASIA
Malaysia suffers the tragic airplane "unknown disappearance".

Whether it was a catastrophic accident or not, all the 239 passengers of 14 nationalities went missing with plane from the face of the Earth overnight our time.
The Airplane, a Boeing 777-200ER, operating at the moment as Flight MH370 departed Kuala Lumpur at 12:41 AM Local time, some time after the plane went down into the South China Sea near the Vietnamese coast (either the plane as a whole or in fragments), 154 passengers were Chinese, 38 Malaysians, 12 crew members, and 4 Americans...it's believed one of them was a child.
The plane never arrived in Beijing at 6:30 AM local time as expected.

All sorts of speculations are on the table right now as to what could have happened to the jet when experts say it happened in the safest point of flight.

Keep the victims and their suffering relatives in our prayers...

Map of the event...




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東日本大震災
March 11, 2011 - Apocalyptic M9.0

Mourning for Flight MH370


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I announced the winners of the 2013 hurricane scorecard in my previous blog, go to see it

Updated: 8:08 PM GMT on March 09, 2014

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March snowstorm impacts Midwest and Northeast

By: trHUrrIXC5MMX, 5:35 AM GMT on March 02, 2014


March 11, 2011: Remembering Japan on that fateful time almost 3 years ago. Keep the victims in your prayers



2:10 PM ET March 2
Updated snowfall forecast - a significant sift to the south
A Mid-Atlantic snowstorm this will be

Most of Maryland, Virginia, West Virginia, Delaware, southern New Jersey, Pennsylvania could get hammered by this storm. Maryland is the state to be in!

North of New York expect anywhere between 2-4" just north of the city and for the Mass Nantucket-Cape Cod area and about 1-3" for southern New England. Snow is not expected north of Interstate 84, places along the highway and just south are up for 1-2" the most in Connecticut.




A zoom into Washington DC - Baltimore Area... as it appears now the bulk of the snow will be just to your south


--

This has been a difficult snowstorm to track... it's hard to pinpoint exactly where the heaviest snow is going to fall which this recurring southward shifts of the forecast snowfall swath from the weather model runs. It's possible having more shifts later today into early tomorrow changing the snowfall forecasts for many locations so stay tuned.

MAJOR STORM EXTENDING ACROSS THE NATION
Form heavy rains, thunderstorms and even tornado warnings in Los Angeles to heavy snows, ice and wind impacting the Midwest and soon the northeast. This is a major storm traveling across all the Lower-48. Brutal cold air expected to arrive for many as this storm passes by, expect a vast area of below zero temperatures in the north country.

Northeast:
Most of the snow has been drawn southward due to recent model trends, no significant snowfall is expected for places north of New York City... this is what the latest runs depict, however this is a very difficult forecast because there is a chance for future model runs hinting a new northward shift bringing neahier snow for the NYC area as there is a chance to remain the way it is now or even shift further south.

Right now Anywhere in the Mid-Atlantic expect 6-12" of snow... perhaps 10-15" in some locations around the DC-Baltimore area into Southern New jersey and Southern Pennsylvania including Philadelphia...

Again, a northward southward or no shift is possible. All depending on the storm intensity



Notice the length of this storm... from coast to coast


More information to come by the afternoon...
Models should have a clear solution about this.



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PRAY FOR JAPAN-They still need our help!
東日本大震災
March 11, 2011 - Apocalyptic M9.0

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I announced the winners of the 2013 hurricane scorecard in my previous blog, go to see it




Amazing sunset nature wants us to keep for our records... Norwalk, CT
Feb 28 - 6:35 PM ET

Updated: 7:11 PM GMT on March 02, 2014

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About trHUrrIXC5MMX

I'm just a 21 year old weather graphic geek. Most of you know Max.

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Elevation: 86 ft
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