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Rough weather starting the weekend, but some may welcome it with a smile

By: trHUrrIXC5MMX, 11:20 AM GMT on February 26, 2014


Welcome to my blog!


Second preliminary snowfall forecast... until winter alerts are issued
February 28 at 7:10 PM ET

Based on the latest computer models, the swath of snow is now forecast to have taken a southward shift than initially forecast. New places may be up for significant snows while others previously threatened may not be any longer up for such snow.

Here is the breakdown:

1-3 Inches:
In Virginia for Roanoke eastwards to Richmond and the Virginia section of the DelMarVa Peninsula (Salisbury). So Lynchburg to Charlottesville, Culpepper, Alexandria and the Arlington area which may be in the higher end of the range, possibly for 2-5"
In the north end: From Erie into Buffalo eastwards to Rochester and Syracuse to Schenectady, Utica and Saratoga Springs crossing the NY/VT state line to Rutland, Hanover VT/NH into Lincoln all the way to Augusta, Maine or maybe south of Augusta a bit. The city may be looking for the lower end of the snowfall forecast... Up to 2"

3-6 inches:
All northern Pennsylvania except for Erie.
Northern W VA and VA. Harrsonburg, VA eastwards to Washington DC to Baltimore along I-95. Havre de Grace and all the southern Susquehanna River Valley. Central Delaware and southern New Jersey.
All northern PA except for Erie into Binghamton, NY and northern Hudson River Valley. Northern and western Massachusetts. Southern Vermont and New Hampshire. Anywhere south of Portland for Maine

6-12 Inches... here is where it comes critical forecast
From the Major city of Boston, westwards to Worcester into Springfield-Northampton down into northern Connecticut for Hartford, Torrington, Storrs, Norwich, Putnam. Also the entire Ocean State (Providence, Pawtucket Warwick, Newport, Narragansett. This also includes all the Cape Cod-Plymouth-Nantucket area of Massachusetts. This forecast is also for Mid Hudson River Valley from Poughkeepsie in NY westwards to Monticello. Into PA for Scranton, State College (higher snow just south of the city) all the way to Pittsburg, then coming back for the southern border counties along I-76 into Harrisburg Lancaster and Philadelphia Metro Area.
Only central New Jersey, Monmouth and northern Burlington counties are up for 6-12" because there is heavier snow for the north and lighter snow for the south.


12+ Inches... Major
South of State College from Central PA into all Northern New Jersey. A line from Trenton to Middletown northward into New York City metropolitan area and all Long Island. North of the city for Yonkers, White Plains to Peekskill in Westchester county. All coastal Connecticut along 1-95... southern Fairfield (south of I-84), New Haven and coastal areas of Middlesex and New London counties including Danbury on I-84 down into Stamford, Norwalk, Bridgeport, New Haven metro area eastward to Old Lyme to New London to Westerly in the CT/RI border. This includes Block Island.

There is no solid forecast as to these snow accumulations for the places listed above thus this may change.





Forecasting Snowstorms: More misses than actual hits for the Northeast?
Last week we were monitoring the potential for a snowstorm to hit the northeast, a pretty significant snowstorm, after that point models began coming up with the idea that such ingredients coming together was more of a fantasy than a reality thus no significant storm is on sight anymore for this week.



Only very little, if anything, is expected to accumulate for the NYC Area



Is winter over then...snow-wise?
Um..well, can't call off winter completely regarding the snow for the northeast. In fact, a very strong high is expected to move southwards and bring another blast of dangerous cold air to the area, possibly like those we had in January. Temperatures in the teens to twenties are in the forecast for the metropolitan area, blow zero to single digits to teens up places in the interior. These are truly deep winter temperatures.

In 2 days we will be entering March, the 3rd month of 2014, how is it possible to be feeling such brutal weather conditions in March? Aren't we getting loose from the cold to enter the milder spring-like temperatures? Winter has another plans!

According to AccuWeather, winter has not plans on leaving for the next 3 weeks! Yes, this comes with a stormy weather pattern for the northeast.
Winter is going to deliver up to last snowflake for of us, until then is not leaving.

A stormy pattern is going to build as the aforementioned arctic high moves its way southward starting today. After the light snow expected today for the Mid-Atlantic and the Northeast we may expect another weak storm by this weekend with no significant impacts then Monday next week is the day we have to look out for. There is a potential storm to impact the region.

But before talking about the northeast, let's rewind, rewind to the west coast as this storm will be starting the parade from there.

The storm circled in red is the big player, as you see there is a storm reaching the coast of California where they need rain so bad to stop the major drought currently affecting the state from getting worse than it is right now. That storm is going to do little to help however the one being it, the big player, could dump a hefty amount of rain. California then needs to worry about mudslides and flooding from the heavy rain coming their way starting on Friday out of the storm currently located north of Hawaii.

The coastal half of California, which is in the worst shape rain wise may receive from 3 to 6 inches of beneficial rain during the early weekend. Also very heavy Sierra snows are expected, 12 to 24" of snowfall accompanied by gusty winds all across the drought stricken state.

6.1" for the Los Angeles metro area


Anywhere from San Diego, Los Angeles to Sacramento-San Francisco to Redding and all the way to Portland, OR will be looking for big rain.



Again, this heavy rain is beneficial for California but people need to watch out for flooding as this water can't penetrate the dried land as fast as if it were moist. Flood watches may be issued.

This could be the last big rain California may see in a while, unfortunately.

As the storm, circled in red, enters California from the southwest and moves northeastward delivering heavy amounts of rain for must of the southwest states, Midwest cities then need to pay attention to this storm as heavy snow, dangerous ice and heavy rain with thunderstorms are possible all the way from north to south.

If you live along the Ohio River Valley and the northern Mississippi River Valley in the Midwest you need to pa attention to the forecast as there could be some significant snow for you from this storm approaching by the weekend. Anywhere north of Intestate 64 from West Virginia through Lexington, KY to Kansas City, MO could see accumulable snow. Depending on the exact track of the storm we can be pointed out who is going to get how much but at this time it's too pearly to talk about accumulations.



Between Interstate 40 and Interstate 64 look for a rain/snow and ice mix. There is the potential for some dangerous ice to accumulate anywhere from St. Louis eastwards to central Kentucky (possibly northern Tennessee) into the Virginias. Such mix could also slide into portions of Southern IL, IN and OH.

Anywhere south of I-40 is going to be just rain, Dallas - Little Rock - Nashville - Knoxville-Greensboro, NC and Norfolk, VA on southwards.
Anywhere from Shreveport, LA to Atlanta, Georgia look for a rumble of thunder accompanied with the rain.

Now, the question is for the northeast states. Where is is storm going to go?
Some models take the storm close enough up the coast to bring dangerous wintry weather conditions others take the storm out to sea off North Carolina



As usual, there are two possible tracks. Depending on which the storm moves along we may be impacted or not. By this time must of the northern states have gone through a major cold spell so big snows for the I-95 big cities is possible as we are going to be influenced by this arctic high still.


7:25 PM Update 2/26
Winter alerts beginning to be issued for the northwest
This is the beginning of this big storm


Stay tuned for more updates, we are still too far from this event and a lot of things can happen.




Remembering Chile on this day...

After the world's 6th most powerful earthquake unleashed a Pacific Ocean wide tsunami placing dozens of countries under alert.

M 8.8 - Southwest of Santiago, Chile.
Over 500 deaths... shaking lasted for nearly 3 minutes.


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Amazing sunset nature wants is to keep for our records... Norwalk, CT
6:35 PM ET

Winter Weather

Updated: 1:08 AM GMT on March 01, 2014

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Potential snowstorm for the northeast next week. Christchurch 3 years later

By: trHUrrIXC5MMX, 1:36 AM GMT on February 20, 2014



Feb 23 at 6:00 PM ET
Florida tornado warnings - CLOSE CALL FOR DAYTONA 500...



People rushed to satefy outside the Daytona 500 speedway which was placed under a tornado warning around 3 PM EST.
Soon afterwards, by around 5 PM another tornado warning was issued from Deltona to Cape Canaveral.


All tornado warnings have expired, severe weather has moved offshore

------

February 22, 2011 - Remembering the day that changed Christchurch forever
Please keep the victims in your prayers. They were set to rest today 3 years ago.


Christchurch, New Zealand

____


A big-needed winter break coming for the northeast..., sadly it's not going to last long

Upper 40s to mid 50s possible by the remainder of the work week, February 20-21, across the NYC area. Warmer temps expected near the coastal areas where the ground is covered under a foot of snow or more. This temperatures will significantly increase the speed of the snow melting which has been a slow process during these past weeks due to the fact that we have not been able to warm up enough, on average we reach mid to upper 30s across the region then cool down to 10s or 20s.

The northeast has been hammered this winter, snowstorm after snowstorm which has resulted in too many disruptions for the already annoyed travelers everyday. We are running low in the essential salt supply needed for the road cleaning during these past weeks. Schools across the area has closed for over a week time total during the last months from the recurring snow storms.

NYC this year has received over 50 inches of snow which is more than double the snow the city gets on average. Places far inland have gotten more than places near the coast generally this season. This excessive amount of snow has taken large spaces in public parking areas, street intersections and home properties.


Warming up and rain by the last days of the week. Not of a good thing really.

These temperature will do good for accelerating the current snow melting across the region but at the same time they increase the flooding potential and ice jams on rivers which could lead to flooding as well.

Rain is expected on Friday... about an inch of liquid precipitation to fall across the area will increase the flooding risk significantly. This is not good news for us.


NWS Forecast highs for Thursday... nearly the same for Friday too


Potential snowstorm next week... yes, winter is going to make a harsh comeback after the warming up in the next 2 days for our area.

Snow is not done with us, a big cold shot is expected to enter and dominate in the region during the next week, yep, any storms entering the region could deliver more snow and this is what could happen based on recent model run information

On Sunday-Monday a weak storm is expected to move though the area bringing moderate snow for the interior and rain for the coast, perhaps mixing with snow at times now.

After that, the cold high expands southward shifting a boundary line from the Carolinas into the midwest placing the potential for a storm to develop and track east along the boundary with more room for cold air to sit from the Mid-Atlantic into the northeast. This storm will have to be watched when it reached the coast, by that time, two things could happen:

Scenario 2: The storm keeps on moving eastward and off to sea doing little impact.

Scenario 1: If such storm were to move north as it exits the coast then there could be trouble from Virginia to Maine. A significant snowstorm is possible to develop tracking offshore along the coast. As we know timing is critical but we are not confident this track is going to happen anyway.

Why such possibility? This type of scenarios have happened over and over again this year and most of the time the outcome has been for a storm to track along the coast bringing heavy snow to the area, this is why this upcoming storm could be concerning. At this time there are chances for such continuity but there are chances for this to take another turn and not affect us at all but I find this less likely.

Latest graphic depicting this pattern.. note that the snowstorm potential would only happen if scenario #1 verifies.



More information as we near the event...stay tuned.


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I announced the winners of the 2013 hurricane scorecard in my previous blog, go to see it

Winter Weather

Updated: 11:04 PM GMT on February 23, 2014

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2013 Hurricane Scorecard winners. Congratulations to the 15 of you!!!

By: trHUrrIXC5MMX, 2:53 AM GMT on February 15, 2014



As promised and long wait for... Im thrilled to make the dedication to the 15 winners of my hurricane scorecard where 142 people participated.

Special present for Valentine's Day... can't be better

"Thank you all for taking the time to share your predictions and for the competition, last year was a great year for many of us even if the hurricane season was not what we expected. Congratulations to the winners and I invite all the participants and those "strangers" to try one more time this new year.
It was a pleasure for me to have served you on something... I'm happy to have contributed with my grain of sand to wunderground.com in such way.
Thank you and again, congratulations!"

-MaxWeather



try to see the image in its full resolution... about 4x bigger. Feel free!


- If you want to see the final 2013 Hurricane Scorecard, click there or check it out in my recommended links

- If you want to back in time to the main blog where Dr. Masters announces the WU Community forecast featuring Max Scorecard, please click on the link

- If you want to check out my last blog featuring the Final Scorecard list of July, 1 2013, please click there.


Thanks for contributing for last year's scorecard.

2014 Scorecard is coming, in early Spring I'll release the new scorecard to you and I'll want to have some new predictions by then. You can do them as soon as now until July 1, 2014... you have a long time, please participate!


________________

Feb 18 Update
Snow to make a comeback?
Winter is still around!




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Hurricane Scorecard Hurricane Season 2013

Updated: 3:19 AM GMT on February 19, 2014

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Potentially devastating winter storm for the Northeast

By: trHUrrIXC5MMX, 7:41 PM GMT on February 11, 2014



Feb 14, 2014 at 7:44 PM
YET ANOTHER STORN STORN TO STRIKE WEARY NEW ENGLAND - Blizzard watches for Mass coast except for Boston
Nantucket up for 3-6
Plymouth county, Mass for 12-18"

Latest snowfall forecast

_______________

POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS STORM TO HAMMER THE NORTHEAST... MAJOR SNOWFALL BECOMING LIKELY

Af of 10 AM...outside my room window



Update Feb 13 at 1:30 PM
Major snowfalls for the northeast.
Significantly increased snowfall totals


click on image for larger size




weather.com forecast




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________________

HURRICANE SCORECARD 2013

The final official numbers finally came in for the season:
14 Named storms and 2 hurricanes

Expect the dedication for those 15 winners on February 14, 2014

________________



Winter Weather NYC Area

Updated: 12:44 AM GMT on February 15, 2014

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Blizzard of Feberuary 2013: One for the ages in the Northeast US. South snow returns

By: trHUrrIXC5MMX, 6:57 PM GMT on February 09, 2014





10-Feb 10:40 PM Update
East Coast snowstorm

I'll postpone the blog due to unclear snowfall forecasts at the moment for the northeast



It has been a year since a blizzard of historic proportions just shut down activity in the Northeast Big Cities from New York City and Long Island northwards

Snowfall Accumulations
Central southern New England felt the worst


Click on iage for larger view


A historic Northeast blizzard dumps snow that is best measured in FEET. This blizzard is nothing we have seen since that on 1978. 35 years ago.
Hurricane winds along with dangerous coastal flooding were the extra ingredients. Connecticut was the hardest hit state, 40" (the highest snowfall) was reported in Hamden, CT closely followed by 38" in Milford, CT.
Boston picked up nearly 25" and NYC 7.5".


Check out the blog on the aftermath of the blizzard from last year with lots of information. Blizzard Nemo.


Feb 8, 2013 radar before midnight


New York Times

NEW HAVEN — Few of the people parading around the streets with snow shovels on Sunday needed any reminder of the region’s string of natural disasters in recent years: Hurricanes Irene and Sandy, and a rare pre-Halloween snowstorm.

ut as parts of the state dug out from three feet or more of snow, there was no avoiding it.


Derby, CT

In Old Lyme, Conn., Beth Hamilton and her husband, Matthew Barrett, were among 80 percent of the town who lost power on Friday night. They were still without power on Sunday night.

“We lost power in both of the hurricanes — for five days during Irene, and six days during Sandy. So we’re not having a lot of luck,” said Ms. Hamilton, the mother of four children from age 3 to 16. “Last night, it got down to zero degrees. It was brutal.” She added, “If we ever do make it through this, the first thing we’ll do is buy a generator.”

Connecticut was hardly alone in being buried in the snow, but it seemed to suffer the worst of the storm. While much of the prestorm concerns centered on Eastern Massachusetts, no area was hit harder than Connecticut, where the town of Hamden took top snowfall honors: 40 inches.

Five of the 11 deaths attributed to the storm in the Northeast occurred in Connecticut. By Sunday evening, Connecticut Light and Power said it had restored service to more than 60,000 customers. Fewer than 7,000 customers remained without power, most of them in the southeastern corner of the state.

President Obama signed a disaster declaration for Connecticut, the fifth such instance in the two-plus years Dannel P. Malloy has been governor, a wearying tape loop of natural chaos — with tragedies like the massacre at Sandy Hook Elementary School in December and the previous year’s fatal Christmas Eve fire in Stamford added to the mix — that seems a long way from the state’s traditional reputation as the low-drama “Land of Steady Habits.”


Jayne Buturla digs out of the piled up snow with her trusty companion Luke by her side on High St. in Fairfield, Conn. on Saturday, Feb. 9, 2013. Southwestern Connecticut was hit by one of the biggest snowstorms in history, a howling blizzard that dumped up to three feet of snow across the state.


A lone vehicle travels on the Merritt Parkway, in Stratford, Conn., Feb. 9th, 2013. All road in Connecticut are closed Saturday due to the massive amounts of snow.


A Cardinal sits on the snow-covered branch of a tree in Byram during the aftermath of the blizzard that hit Greenwich, Conn., Saturday morning, Feb. 9, 2013.


West Putnam Avenue during the aftermath of the blizzard that hit Greenwich, Conn.


Gusts of wind make snowblowing difficult Saturday morning, Feb. 9, 2013, on Maple Avenue in Danbury, Conn. Almost two feet of snow was dumped on the area by a blizzard Friday and early Saturday.

Thats just in Connecticut, people traveling on Long Island Expressway I-495 ended up just like this


Areas on Long Island and south central CT received snowfall rates between 5 and 8 inches per hour! Over 2 feet accumulated in these locations.



Major transpiration cancellations, people stranded everywhere around the northeast. Just paralyzed this place of the nation was, the worst to be in at the moment.

This was the first time-ever seen snowfall forecast from NYC NWS


In my location in SW CT i picked up just under 2 feet: 21".
My 18" steel ruler failed the snow measurement for the first time ever since I bought it 6 years ago



Would this happen again?

--

Another potential nightmare for travelers in the south?
Up to 3" of snow are possible across North Georgia, 1-2" just north of Atlanta
Winter storm watches are in effect addressing this upcoming snowstorm from Arkansas to Georgia. Expecting anywhere from 2-4" from this snowstorm in general across the area. Localized snowfall around half a foot is possible




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PS. Im still waiting for the NHC TCR for TD8 to announce the winners of the 2013 Hurricane Scorecard. As soon as they do I will go ahead and release the winners.

Nemo Winter Weather

Updated: 2:17 PM GMT on February 11, 2014

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JAPAN: Major snows from Tokyo to Fukushima and Sendai. Storms looming NE USA?

By: trHUrrIXC5MMX, 2:38 AM GMT on February 07, 2014

Major snowstorm to strike Japan by this weekend. Honshu Island to feel the worst

A big snow storm is set to bury the Japanese big cities by this weekend. Major transportation disruption likely all across the top populated areas of Honshu.

The worst of the storm will be felt across the east coast of Honshu (followed by Shikoku). In Honshu anywhere form Shizuoka up the coast to Fujisawa-Yokosuka up to the Greater Tokyo area (Chiba-Tokyo-Saitama-Matsudo and Hachioji) northwards to Utsunomiya, Mito to Iwaki and to the Fukushima area and Sendai are expected to get anywhere from 6" to a foot of snow. Closer to a foot of snow to the northern places or the higher elevations where 12" up to 2 feet are possible, especially in the higher terrains north of Tokyo. Higher snowfalls are expected around the Mt. Fuji area as well

Anywhere from 1 to 6" are expected along the west coast of the island, like for cities of Niigata, Joetsu down to Toyama. Same goes for most of the Island of Hokkaido.

Lower elevations of Shikoku may get up to 6" inches of snow and higher elevations could get anywhere near a foot. Kochi, Takamatsu and Tukushima could see 3-6", with maximum amounts over 6".

Inland places of Kyushu will only get few inches, perhaps 3" the most. And a mix with rain since it's far south

Plan in advance your travel if necessary, rough weekend ahead for our Japanese friends! Stay safe!

I'll try up upload photos over the weekend on the snow in the other side of the world.

Forecast snowfall map:


-
Northeast US big storm?

The idea of a potentially major snowstorm impacting the northeast big cities, according to earlier computer models, has been dropped. And now theory are leaning towards Wednesday next week for such threat.

NYC NWS has a note on this:


PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
535 PM EST WED FEB 05 2014

...POTENTIAL FOR A CHANCE OF SNOW THIS WEEKEND...

ALTHOUGH FORECAST MODELS SHOW A CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF SNOW THIS
WEEKEND...THEY DO NOT SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A LARGE COASTAL STORM
THAT WOULD BRING HIGH IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION.

YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS FORECASTING A ...CHANCE... OF SNOW
FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON SATURDAY WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ON SUNDAY.



Though, its still possible to get snow this weekend here from two separate systems which were supposed to merge into one thus becoming the dangerous snowstorm which is not going to happen. One storm is coming after the other this weekend but only delivering few inches from the mid-atlantic into New England.

There is still time to determine what is going to happen whiz weekend with the snow as models keep changing their minds from run to run.

Currently, this is the storm the 18z GFS has up for 180 hours.



-

The recent snowstorms we have had this week add up to over a foot of snow across Southwestern Connecticut. 14.5", to be exact, around Norwalk, CT.
With that in mind our seasonal snowfall so far this 2013-2014 winter time adds up to 40" of snow.

Here are some of the dozens of pictures I took after the second snowstorm (Wednesday storm) was over all around the area.

Norwalk - Strawberry Hill


Norwalk- Far in the background there is the high school I graduated from, also on Strawberry Hill


Westport - somewhere in the woods


Danbury - Taken today after my visit to town. From the entrance of the Danbury Fair mall looking out into the woods and the airport runway

...

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Japan Winter Weather

Updated: 3:02 AM GMT on February 07, 2014

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About trHUrrIXC5MMX

I'm just a 21 year old weather graphic geek. Most of you know Max.

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Personal Weather Stations

Cranbury
Norwalk, CT
Elevation: 86 ft
Temperature: 74.7 °F
Dew Point: 71.6 °F
Humidity: 90%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 2.0 mph
Updated: 12:56 PM EDT on September 21, 2014
Park Slope, Brooklyn, NY 11215
Brooklyn, NY
Elevation: 95 ft
Temperature: 64.4 °F
Dew Point: 57.0 °F
Humidity: 77%
Wind: 3.8 mph from the ESE
Wind Gust: 3.8 mph
Updated: 7:43 PM EDT on June 11, 2014
Eagle Ridge
Marietta, GA
Elevation: 1170 ft
Temperature: 76.9 °F
Dew Point: 66.2 °F
Humidity: 69%
Wind: 2.0 mph from the NNE
Wind Gust: 2.0 mph
Updated: 9:24 PM EDT on September 21, 2014

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