Max's conference

Winning the chart numbers... there is an "equal" chance for all.

By: trHUrrIXC5MMX, 12:33 AM GMT on August 01, 2013



Hurricane Scorecard 2013

Hi everyone, yes Im back to touch up with you some extra things about it, this will be about winning your prediction!

First off, note that we already have four named storms in the Atlantic Basin: Andrea, Barry, Chantal and Dorian

As you know Im the creator of the Hurricane Score Card which lists many hurricane predictions of those who participated.

This is how it's going to work...


If you think you got a number right I urge you to check the following, there are two ways of winning

1. If you submitted a range of numbers, you must get two of them right (out of the three)
2. If you submitted exact numbers, you just have to get one right (of out the three)

Submitting exact numbers have a higher chance for being wrong but you can still bingo. The greater probabilities go for those why submitted range of numbers but again, everyone has an equal chance. Im telling you, there should be many winners out of the 142 of you.
so based on the 2 ways, you can win.


For example, Im going to pick randomly 2 bloggers out of the list to give you a better understanding

a) Aussiestorm: 18-25 named storms, 9-13 hurricanes and 3-6 majors
...Aussie could only win if he gets two of the three predictions right because he did a range prediction

b) OriginalLT: 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 majors
...Mr. LT could only win if he gets only one of the three predictions right


lets assume the 2013 hurricane season numbers end up being 19 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 4 majors...

Aussie wins the range, 19 in 18-25 named storms AND 4 in 3-6 majors
LT wins the exact numbers, he got the prediction of 7 hurricanes right.

Its harder to nail exact numbers than a number within a range, that's why for a range prediction I want 2 of the three and not 1 like in exact number prediction.
Do you understand the rules? Tell me otherwise please.

now, the ULTIMATE WINNER will be the one who wins the entire prediction... either all exact numbers or all range. You will have a "higher regard".

Rewards, I'll make a list of all winners for display in the Main Blog, including any ultimate winners. Please congratulate them and remember that this is only for fun.

If you lose, don't worry, you can try again next year! I urge you to and those who didn't participate to do next season please!

Final Hurricane Season results... Hopefully by December the season will be over and all the storms we end up having will stay the same in the NHC PSA (Post Storm Analysis), hopefully we won't get a storm like Sandy making landfall as a 110 mph hurricane but reanalyzed as a 115 major hurricane. This is a significant change and many of you may be affected if this kind of situation happens, top which I may delay to publish the final results into next year.

Speaking of next year, on April 2nd, the poll will re-open for the new Hurricane Scorecard 2014. more info by then...


Remember, you can always find the hurricane chart under my recommended links menu to the right.


_______________________

Storm Track

Tropical Storm Flossie...
Flossie fizzled out as it neared Hawaii and the TS warnings were cancelled. Nonetheless, heavy rains and some gusty winds impacted Maui.

I would like to share with you some of the pictures Civicane49 (a fellow blogger from Honolulu) sent me. Appreciations extended to him.

From Kailua


Paia, HI


Oahu, HI


Flossie is now gone...the final advisory was written on it by the CPHC.


Hurricane Gil


Gil became a hurricane...no land threat

Thanks for reading!



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PS. This is how I say goodbye to the long J months... finally over with.
Happy August everyone!

Hurricane Season Hurricane Scorecard

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Tropical Storm Flossie threatens Hawaii

By: trHUrrIXC5MMX, 2:44 PM GMT on July 28, 2013



STORM TRACK//


**Update***


Tropical storm Flossie entered the Central Pacific Basin (140W-180IDL) Saturday morning (Sat. afternoon EDT) as a moderate 50 mph tropical storm, and further weakening was expected. However Flossie is now entering an area of warmer surface waters which could lead to the storm re-organization and that is not what the 50th US Sate of Hawaii doesn't want to hear.


Expect major rainfall from this storm over most of the Hawaiian Islands, as well as high waves, high rip current risk, widespread tropical storm winds brining down trees and causing power outages.


Hawaii, NWS


A flash flood watch is in effect for the islands as well.



Warmer waters are ahead of the storm which could help intensifying it but not too fast as there is a dense layer of dry air ahead and right now there is some dry shear affecting the storm. I expect the storm to slowly weaken from now on but to be strong enough to reach Hawaii and bring some adverse weather there.


More info later... expect the 5 AM HST ( 11 AM EDT) advisory shortly
Mahalo for visiting...

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click on image to visit the CPHC website

Updated: 10:22 PM GMT on July 28, 2013

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Getting back to long track Dorian

By: trHUrrIXC5MMX, 4:38 PM GMT on July 25, 2013



Hello everyone Im returning to have fun with all of you again here.
I just took some time off to take a splash of water, refreshening my mind to be ready to go again. Here I am.

Im happy to have so many people stop my and comment during my absence.
Very appreciated


STORM TRACK

**TS FLOSSIE



Tropical Storm Dorian


The fourth named storm of the season formed yesterday, now Tropical Storm Dorian packs winds near 60 mph as it rolls across the long open Atlantic. It may take the storm over 3 days to reach any landmasses.


8:45 AM Dorian's NASA satellite image

Current situation:


Tropical storm Dorian is a harmless storm and will be so for the next three days however the Northern Leeward Islands must monitor the progress of this storm because they will be the first ones to feel the impacts (if any) from Dorian..

Dorian is a small storm, but able to change quicker intensity than larger storms. Being smaller represent a higher vulnerability to adverse conditions ahead. Right now Dorian entered a region in the Atlantic where the sea surface temperatures SSTs are not optimal for storm intensification, the waters needed for so are way below and that's where the storm sits... 25-27C are the current sea temperatures and this may bring some disruption to the storm. This is a reason to why the 11 AM NHC ADV 6 was kept at 60 mph and not higher.


The orange colors represent temperatures of about 25F or 77F.

Since 9 AM Dorian's cold cloud tops have been slowly warming, its obvious if such thing occurred that the intensification process was halted, with the storm clouds warming, losing height into the atmosphere making the storm lose intensity so for this reason Dorian may weaken some for the rest of today.

As the storm nears the Lesser Antilles the SSTs will be warmer reviving the storm and potentially strengthen it but there the problem will be high wind shear.


Water vapor image, on the image you can clearly see some shear across the Eastern Caribbean.

North of Puerto Rico there is an upper low generating lots of wind shear which could disrupt once again Dorian, since the projected path for the storm is to navigate north of the Islands.

I don't expect Dorian to dissipate from the cooler waters of the shear, only weakening the storm, especially the wind shear. If the storm manages to get out well thought this then the conditions ahead past Puerto Rico are very favorable for significant development.



Who's at Risk?



The northern coasts of all leeward Islands will be dangerous for swimmers, boating etc. Rough surf, rip currents and possibly pop up thunderstorms are expected. Same thing for Hispaniola and Cuba.

Actually Hispaniola must monitor this storm closer than the Lesser Antilles, its possible Dorian could make a closer pass by the northern side of the Island and may bring some heavy rain and coastal gusty winds, rough surf etc.

The one who really needs to watch out are the Bahama Islands, for you things could be serious because Dorian could potentially impact you as a hurricane, it all depends how well it does now and how it makes it by Puerto Rico. A stronger, resistant storm could get it together and intensify faster than a weaker and more disrupted one.

This is why the Bahama Islands need to be on the lookout. There are still many days to track this storm, many changes could take place and if it were to hit the Bahamas it would happen in 5-6 days from today.

Please keep checking. I have nothing to say about Florida or the US East Coast yet.

NHC 11 AM: Current Stats for Dorian...It's Advisory 6 (not 9...sorry about that)




Tropical Storm Flossie



Flossie is a developing storm in the open Eastern Pacific, this storm could become a hurricane as it churns westward, just coincidental this storm could pose a threat to Hawaii like last 2007 C4 Hurricane Flossie.

Flossie could impact Hawaii by midweek next week, but as a weak storm only bringing heavy rains and some winds potentially generating mudslides, flooding and rough surf. Hawaii's big cities of Hilo (Big Island and Honolulu (Oahu) need to monitor this storm as well.
I expect tropical storm advisories for the state by this weekend.

Note: Flossie will cross the 140W line sometime Sat-Sun (EDT Time), the Central Pacific Hurricane Center will handle Flossie afterwards, NHC discontinues it at that point.
Flossie is currently located 2,150 miles ESE of Honolulu, Hawaii.

Please keep monitoring this storm as well.


During my time off...

A 10 day vacation it's all I needed to restart. Here I am again for a while now.
I took some pictures on my way to work and at work, gotta love my hobby.

Kennesaw GA... you can see the thunderstorms in the distance, I was trying to get one with lightning but I couldn't... I did see some awesome strikes.


Dallas, GA... we were coming from work near Rome... awesome landscapes there are


Douglasville, GA... A stop we made to get some stuff from a house to take to work as some thunderclouds were rolling by. We went to some place near the border with Alabama on I-20. Unfortunately our van broke down soon after we entered the highway on our way back and being over 1.5 hours away from home..


Picture taken at the job near Alabama... I just forgot the name of the place... very cool view right?


Acworth, GA... this is what you gotta love about this state.


I hope you enjoyed them.


I'll be tracking and posting updates from Dorian and Flossie later as we go.
Thanks for reading!




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Updated: 3:47 AM GMT on July 28, 2013

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This is Astrometeor here

By: trHUrrIXC5MMX, 3:12 AM GMT on July 17, 2013

Hello all, this is Astrometeor here. I have been given exclusive use of trHUrrIXC5MMX from the owner himself, Max:

My blog is your blog now... Do whatever pleases you.
It's going to be fine...just announce yourself so people there know.

Btw...in case anyone asks, you have my full permission to run my blog during my absence.

Did you log in yet? Post something...
It's going to be weird for me too... Lol

Have fun!


I will be running his blog from now on until whenever he decides to return. I shall try and do my best to follow his kind of style, although I do not have the knack that he has with regards to those excellent charts he makes. If you have any questions, feel free to ask and I will answer to my fullest ability. Trust me, this is more awkward for me than it is for all of you.

So, to start off with this new use, I am going to make a note here for those that missed it earlier:

The NHC is making a switch in the next few weeks to a new supercomputer. Today, they did a test run of Invest 97L. If anyone is still confused as to why there was a few hours of invest today, that is why. The only real question that is left to be solved here is why not use the test designations, usually noted as Invest 80L with the word TEST in the ATCF announcements.

Everyone have a good evening and I will answer all of your questions regarding this strange transition!

Max's farewell

Hurricane Chart

Locations of Site Visitors





TROPICAL STORM DORIAN

Max's Leaving

Updated: 12:25 AM GMT on July 25, 2013

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GOOD BYE EVERYONE

By: trHUrrIXC5MMX, 8:47 PM GMT on July 14, 2013

Good Afternoon everyone

Yes, as you read the title, Im stepping down and leaving the blog.
I don't know for how long.

I really enjoyed talking with everyone and pleasing all of you with my creativity.
Very happy of the job I've done for all, and the hurricane chart.

I now must have time for myself, too much time I need for.

Take care everyone and forever thankful to those who come and post on Max blog.
You may keep doing so...feel free


Good times, laughs and argues here with all but especially with someone who I really consider a brother, cause he is.

Alright.. Max is leaving until further notice.
Good Bye.

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Updated: 3:53 AM GMT on July 15, 2013

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Weather Top stories II

By: trHUrrIXC5MMX, 1:16 AM GMT on July 13, 2013


Blog dedication: We are all one united culture, race, ethnicity and country under God.
May God Bless the United States of America!

_


As mentioned in the previous blog;
This will be a new blog style, I'll be posting here all my new graphics (whenever available) regarding anything that happens in the weather world.

The newest made graphics will be at the top of the page and the becoming-old ones below. So stop by everyday, there will always be something new!

Simple reason, because in the comment section the maps won't be as appreciated as much since people post and post there and they get pushed back sometimes not being seen at all.

I'll still check your comments, for sure!
Enjoy my creativity, criticize constructively!

________

Rain continues...



_

My time in the South

I didn't realize that when I set foot on that Crescent 19 train heading to Atlanta, GA was going to be the last time in 2013 to be in the NYC area.
My new plan after talking and arguing with my mother is to go for Christmas and New Year's 2014 in Miami, Florida.

This means that I won't return to NYC probably in a year from now.. unless called due to an emergency, those I do act fast upon.

For now, I'll reside in Atlanta for the rest of 2013... I have to say with pain that I won't be there for Thanksgiving and my delicious turkey... (miserable world!), but oh well.

I have nearly 2.5 months living in the northern suburbs of Atlanta, wow, time goes so fast.

There, just if you wanted to know... disregard it otherwise.
_


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*New thing I did ^

Updated: 4:17 AM GMT on July 14, 2013

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Weather top stories

By: trHUrrIXC5MMX, 2:52 PM GMT on July 07, 2013


Blog dedication: We are all one united culture, race, ethnicity and country under God. May God Bless the United States of America!

This will be a new blog style, I'll be posting here all my new graphics (whenever available) regarding anything that happens in the weather world.

The newest made graphics will be at the top of the page and the becoming-old ones below. So stop by everyday, there will always be something new!

Simple reason, because in the comment section the maps won't be as appreciated as much since people post and post there and they get pushed back sometimes not being seen at all.

I'll still check your comments, for sure!
Enjoy my creativity, criticize constructively!

_________________________________________________ ______________

TROPICAL UPDATE



________


TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL



Update 2... latest as of 11:45 PM EDT

read the comment section for more...




Notes: I won't do a "forecast path with intensities" because:
- too much room for uncertainty/errors
- makes the graphic get too crowded
- open for unwanted argue

instead I have a shaded red path which indicates about where the storm will go and who must pay attention. "The cone of uncertainty"

NOTE: I have this storm reach category 1 with winds near 80 mph, this could change.


If and If this storm threats to become a hurricane before landfall I must get hurricaneZone out.
Southern Coast of Dominican Republic is the best area for the worst if the storm makes it that strong. We know what disappointing surprises these storms could reveal.

_____


SPC Severe thunderstorm watch #395 just north of NYC, including Brotherly Love



Big time heat in NHC, excessive heat warnings for the major city

These temperatures are apparent temperatures meaning that you'll feel those temps outside, they are not the actual temps which are about 10 degrees clooler.





Southeast USA Major rainfall


______________________


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Hurricane Season

Updated: 11:55 PM GMT on July 10, 2013

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Major Rainfall for Georgia, Alabama, Tennessee and Florida

By: trHUrrIXC5MMX, 1:06 AM GMT on July 04, 2013


Blog dedication: We are all one united culture, race, ethnicity and country under God. May God Bless the United States of America!

Major rainfall for the Southeastern US States.

A large disturbance located in the Gulf of Mexico, to which the NHC is giving a 10% chance of cyclogenesis, is held accountable for the major rainfall in the forecast for the southeast. Ruining people's July 4th plans completely.


The disturbance is not expected to develop into a tropical cyclone since it's located in a hostile environment; wind shear will proven any development, however, the storm will continue to generate that massive rainfall


Its possible to have rainfall rates of 2" within those heavy bands, the key is location since they will be isolated, however, if you get picked expect very heavy rain and instant flooding and big runoff.
Places in northern Georgia, eastern TN and far western SC are the best bet.


Rainfall outlook through Saturday...


To come up with my rainfall forecast I used NWS info and a blend of the following maps:

1. WPC 1-3 day rain forecast


2. TWC SE rainfall map


3. Current NWS SE Radar

Currently: Lots of rain, and heavy, is headed for Macon and Atlanta.


Current information:
Widespread flood watches

The so called "Atmospheric river", bringing up the coast rain up to NYC, even further north.

NWS Peachtree City rainfall forecast



Please avoid driving over roads covered with water, you may be severely tricked!
Stay dry and listed to updates, look up for yourself if you want instead.

More updates later



Atlanta, GA radar


HAVE AN SPECTACULAR JULY 4TH CELEBRATION... HAPPY BIRTHDAY USA!

Remember to check the final Hurricane Scorecard, over in the recommended links menu.


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hurricaneZONE
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**July 4th, Independence Day.
237th anniversary**

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As of 10:50 PM EDT July 4th

Rain

Updated: 2:52 AM GMT on July 05, 2013

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The Final Hurricane Scorecard

By: trHUrrIXC5MMX, 1:02 AM GMT on July 02, 2013


Blog dedication: We are all one united culture, race, ethnicity and country under God. May God Bless the United States of America!

Hurricane Scorecard - The End

Finally the last sand particle in the hourglass made its way down. The time is up.

Take a look at the amazing chart to which 142 WU bloggers contributed to. Im very, very happy and impressed.


This list will be added to my Recomended Links for you to come and see it anytime you want as we go through the season.

As Maweatherboy1 said "It's time to sit back and enjoy"... absolutely right. I have been working on this for nearly three months since I came up with it on March 10.

Special thanks to Astrometeor, VR46L, Pcola57, Doppler22, Bluestorm5 and OriginalLT who have given part of their own time contributing to my chart improvement and dropping off predictions I have missed on the main blog to put in.

Thanks to all bloggers listed. Lets go for outcomes, winners and rewards!

_________

Tropical Storm Dalila



__________

My most sincere condolences to the families of the brave Phoenix firefighters who died doing their job for this land.
My respects!



Major Southeast rainfall through the 4th of July... A dangerous situation unfolding


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Hurricane Season Hurricane Scorecard July 4th

Updated: 12:50 AM GMT on July 03, 2013

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About trHUrrIXC5MMX

I'm just a 21 year old weather graphic geek. Most of you know Max.

trHUrrIXC5MMX's Recent Photos

Personal Weather Stations

Cranbury
Norwalk, CT
Elevation: 86 ft
Temperature: 75.9 °F
Dew Point: 61.5 °F
Humidity: 61%
Wind: 2.0 mph from the SW
Wind Gust: 8.0 mph
Updated: 12:00 PM EDT on August 30, 2014
Park Slope, Brooklyn, NY 11215
Brooklyn, NY
Elevation: 95 ft
Temperature: 64.4 °F
Dew Point: 57.0 °F
Humidity: 77%
Wind: 3.8 mph from the ESE
Wind Gust: 3.8 mph
Updated: 7:43 PM EDT on June 11, 2014
Eagle Ridge
Marietta, GA
Elevation: 1170 ft
Temperature: 84.2 °F
Dew Point: 73.6 °F
Humidity: 70%
Wind: 2.0 mph from the NNE
Wind Gust: 3.0 mph
Updated: 12:00 PM EDT on August 30, 2014

About Personal Weather Stations