The 2012 Atlantic Hurricane season was above average with 19 named storms. An Average year usually has around 10 named storms. The 2012 Hurricane season had some storms that impacted land. The question that is asked is will any of the names join the retired list. I will be taking a look at all the storms and giving a percentage that I think the storm has of getting retired.
1. Alberto. Alberto formed in May but did not really impact land. Alberto has a 0% chance of getting retired
2. Beryl. Beryl formed in May and made landfall near the Georgia and South Carolina Boarder, but did less than $1 million in damage. Beryl has 0% chance of getting retired
3. Chris. Chris was a Hurricane that formed north of where most Hurricanes form but did not impact any land. So Christ has a zero chance of getting retired
4. Debby. Debby made Landfall in Florida as a Tropical Storm claiming 10 lives and over $300 million in damages. Debby was not an Allison which was a tropical storm, that caused $5 billion in damage to Texas in 2001. Debby, has a 10% chance of getting retired
5. Ernesto. Ernesto was a category 2 hurricane that made landfall in Mexico. Ernesto did cause 12 deaths and over $250 million in damages to Mexico. Mexico has a history of not retiring hurricanes, on the other hand there have been some hurricanes that did damage similar to Ernesto that Mexico did request retirement other times not. More destructive storms like 2010's Hurricane Alex and Karl were not retired. Thus, Ernesto has a 30% chance of getting retired
6. Florence. Florence did not impact any land so 0% of getting retired.
7. Gordon. Gordon was a hurricane that did not impact any land. Gordon has a 0% chance of getting retired
8. Helene. Helene made landfall in Mexico but caused little damage so 0% chance of getting retired.
9. Isaac. Isaac caused a lot of damage to Haiti when it made Landfall as a Tropical Storm. Isaac also made Landfall in Louisiana as a category 1 claiming over 40 lives and over $2 Billion in damages. Storms that did similar damage have been retired, on the other hand some storms have not been retired (Dolly 2008) did similar damage but was not retired. Isaac based on history of similar storms is hard to predict as the name could be retired or not. Chance of retirement 40%
10. Joyce. Joyce did not impact land so 0% chance of retirement
11. Kirk. Kirk did not impact land so 0% chance of retirement
12. Leslie. Leslie made landfall in Canada as a Category one Costing $10 million. But Leslie was not a Horetense, a Juan or an Igor, which all three did lots of damage to Canada. So Leslie has only a 5% chance of getting retired
13. Michael. Michael did not impact land so 0% chance of getting retired
14. Nadine. Nadine did not impact any land so 0% of retirement
15. Oscar. Oscar did not impact any land so 0% chance of retirement
16. Patty. Patty did not impact any land so 0% chance of retirement
17. Raphael. Raphael caused $ 2 million in damages to the Lesser Antilles, so probably a 0% chance of retirement
18. Sandy. Sandy was the most costly storm of the season. First making landfall in Cuba as a category 2 hurricane causing high casualties and Billions in damages. Sandy than made landfall in New Jersey & New York as a Sub Hurricane type storm with 90 mph winds. Sandy cost over $60 Billion in damages and over 250 lives lost.
Sandy I feel like will be retired the only reason that it could not be retired is it was sub-tropical when it made landfall in the USA. Still Sandy was destructive
Sandy gets a 75% chance of retirement
19. Tony, never impacted land 0% chance of retirement
Bottom Line. Isaac and Sandy seem to be the most likely to have their names retired. Sandy has a much higher chance since it was so devastating. Isaac could be retired but at the same time it was not the most damaging gulf of Mexico Storm and could be overshadowed by Sandy. Ernesto probably will not be retired due to more destructive Mexico storms where not retired. So, Sandy will probably be retired and perhaps Isaac though Sandy is more likely