Cam's Weather

2013 Hurricane Season Prediction

By: tornadocam, 6:18 PM GMT on March 30, 2013

In 9 weeks June will be here and that starts the official hurricane season which last to the end of November. I am going to make my prediction for what I think this year's hurricane season will be like. I am basing my predictions off of past historical records.

For much of 2013 we have been in a Neutral pattern, which means that El-Nino or La-Nina are absent. However parts of the equatorial Pacific are developing cool spots which means that 2013 may transition into a La Nina pattern. So what does this mean for tropical cyclone activity? Well Neutral and La Nina years favor above average hurricane activity in the Atlantic

Here are my predictions for 2013
13-17 named storms
7-9 will become hurricanes
3-5 will become major hurricanes (Category 3,4, and 5)

I think this will be above average season due to the Neutral and perhaps a La Nina developing past seasons seem to suggest this.For example,
2012 (Neutral), 19 named storms, 10 hurricanes and 2 major
2011 (La Nina) 19 storms, 7 hurricanes, 4 major
2010 (La Nina) 19 storms, 11 hurricanes, 5 major
2008 (La Nina) 16 storms, 8 hurricanes, 5 major
2007 (Neutral) 15 storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 major
2005 (La Nina) 28 storms, 15 hurricanes, 7 major
2004 (La Nina) 15 storms, 9 hurricanes, 6 major
2003 (Neutral) 16 storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 major
2002 (Neutral) 12 storms, 4 hurricanes, 2 major
2001 (Neutral) 15 storms, 9 hurricanes, 4 major
2000 (Neutral) 15 storms, 8 hurricanes, 3 major
1999 (La Nina) 12 storms, 8 hurricanes, 5 major
1998 (La Nina) 14 storms, 10 hurricanes, 3 major
1996 (La Nina) 13 storms, 9 hurricanes, 6 major

I excluded 1997, 2006, and 2009 because those where El-Nino years and had below average activity. An average year sees 10 storms, 6 hurricanes and 2 major. Thus based on past seasons and the fact that Neutral conditions exists. I think we will have an above average season.

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why March has been below normal

By: tornadocam, 6:02 PM GMT on March 30, 2013

March is an unique month for Southeast Tennessee. March usually starts a rapid warm up in temperatures and a sing that spring is on the way. On March 1st the average high is 59 degrees by the end of March the average high is 70 degrees. Overall March's average high is 64 and the average low is 38. March is typically the wettest month of the year averaging 5.1 inches of rainfall.

However March of 2013 has been below monthly average high for March 2013 has been 57 degrees, that is 7 degrees below normal. March 2013 compares to other march's that have finished at least 5 degrees or more below normal. March 2010 the monthly average high was 58 degrees which was 6 degrees below average and March 1996 when the average monthly high was 56 which is 8 degrees below normal. So what has caused March of 2013 to be below normal?

A cold high pressure known as a Greenland Block is responsible. The Greenland block is a cold high pressure that originates from Greenland. The Greenland Block pulls cold air down the Eastern United States to the Gulf Coast. Often times this causes temperatures to be way below normal. For example in March 2010 a strong Greenland Block brought cold temps all the way down to Florida, which damaged the orange crop it also caused cold temperatures in Kentucky, Tennessee, and Alabama. The same situation also occurred in 1996.

Spring conditions will come, as in 1996 and 2010 by April the Greenland Block dissipated and warm humid air was able to return. For spring 2013 that looks to be in the forecast. After the first week of April long range models show temperatures being 75-80 degrees which is typical of April.

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About tornadocam

I'm a Christian who loves weather. I have been into weather since I was 3 years old and I continue to study weather, I'm also a weather spotter