timbersfan's WunderBlog

Mayan Apocalypse Holiday Mailbag
Posted by: timbersfan, 2:30 PM GMT on December 22, 2012 +0

You knew this was coming … it's the Mayan Apocalypse Holiday Mailbag! When will I ever get to do one of these again? Let's cross it with Week 16 NFL picks and answer even more e-mails than usual (over 50 in all), just so you'll always remember plowing through your final Sports Guy column during those final seconds as Earth is collapsing on itself. As always, these are actual e-mails from actual readers.

(Home teams in caps.)

Falcons (-4) over LIONS

Q: Did you know the Lions are selling Axel Foley jackets now? As a lifelong Lions fan (I'm 28), I can safely say that the fact that I can now own this jacket is one of my top 5 moments rooting for this team — Barry Sanders owns the first 4 moments, but this is definitely fifth.
—Brandon Draper, Farmingdale, NY

SG: So to recap — Brandon's top five Lions moments involve a 1984 Eddie Murphy movie and a running back who retired 14 years ago. And you wonder why I took the Falcons over the free-falling Lions. (Another reason: Atlanta clinches the no. 1 seed with a win, allowing them to rest everyone next week.) Meanwhile, Vince Verhei's recent ESPN.com piece (Insider only) made a devastating case for the Falcons being the first-ever "Nobody Believes In Us But With Reason Because We're Absolutely Screwed" team: They're the 12th team to exceed Football Outsiders' win expectancy model by three-plus wins, which ties into the whole "Atlanta isn't nearly as good as its record" angle. Of those other 11 teams, seven either missed the playoffs or lost their first playoff game, and only two made it to a conference championship (the '03 Panthers and '04 Falcons). Their best hope? That '03 Panthers team came within a break or two of beating the Patriots in the Super Bowl AND nearly launched the Mayan Apocalypse eight years early (had Jake Delhomme won the Super Bowl).

Q: When David Stern finally gets his way and Gary Bruce Bettman kills the NHL, what happens to Lord Stanley's Cup a.k.a. the greatest trophy in pro sports? Will it be rented out for parties? I know that I'd pay top dollar to spend a night drinking booze from it. Or maybe the NFL can buy it and rename it the Lord Stanley's Lombardi Cup. There are implications beyond losing a league and the best live experience from any American pro sport. We should really be planning the fate of the Stanley Cup now before Bettman starts using it as his personal outhouse.
— Brandon, Sacramento

SG: I like the idea of renting the Stanley Cup — if they charged $25,000 per night, with the caveat "The Stanley Cup cannot leave North America," how many nights could they sell off to wealthy people desperately trying to impress their friends? Maybe 200 or so? But I love the idea of another league buying the Cup. Why wouldn't the NBA (which currently has the worst trophy in professional sports) purchase it for $25 million as Stern's final dagger into the NHL's back nearly 20 years after planting his mole there? The NHL won't truly hit rock-bottom until it hawks the Cup — that would be the league's "Dirk Diggler jerking off in a church parking lot for 20 bucks" nadir.

(Shouldn't a few NHL diehards steal the Cup and threaten to melt it by January 15 unless hockey comes back? At the very least, couldn't we make this idea into a sports movie? Like a cross between Ocean's Eleven, Ransom and Celtic Pride? This feels like Kevin Smith's next straight-to-cable comeback movie. I'd call it either Stealing Lord Stanley or Five Minutes for Kidnapping.)

Q: Fantasy football sucks. The guy who took a kicker in the 8th round of our fantasy draft just beat me in the playoffs. I give up.
—Kurt, Peoria

SG: You're talking to the guy who spent 10 minutes adding up Week 15 stats for his team that never made the playoffs just to see if he would have beaten everyone else. And yes, Kaepernick (four TDs), Gore, Murray, Dez, Cal Johnson, James Jones (three TDs) and the Bengals D (12 pts) would have beaten everyone else. This is reason no. 92 why I'm probably retiring from fantasy football. Here's reason no. 93: I actually said the words "all fantasy football sites need to add live scoring pages for teams that didn't make the playoffs" on Sunday. It's a sickness.

TEXANS (-7.5) over Vikings

Q: Isn't Christian Ponder the perfect example of why QBR doesn't cover it all? He has the cushiest circumstances for a QB in the modern NFL. He faces nine-man boxes every single snap. It's a bonus if he throws for over ONE HUNDRED yards. He is a picture of sheer panic and fear every time he drops back. Take a close look not just at his incomprehensible interceptions, but all the unseen open receivers or simple underthrown/overthrown passes. Blame it on the receivers? Please. We thought the Vikings had bad receivers when T Jack was here — that was proven false the moment Favre stepped in. If Ponder was placed in any situation that did not involve the greatest running attack in modern NFL history, I am very confident he could surpass Skelton, Leaf, etc as the worst QB in modern NFL history.
—James Bachmeier II, St. Paul

SG: (Waving my arm like a third-base coach … )

Q: Something I read today: "In the Vikings' last six games, Christian Ponder has completed one pass in 23 attempts 15 yards or more downfield. During that time, 40 other players have completed multiple passes of those distances. Ponder's last completion 15 yards or more came in Week 10 against the Lions." Seriously, this is what AP has to protect him from nine men in the box?
—McLayne, Portland

SG: (Still waving my arm … )

Q: After reading your take on Ponder in your QB Power Poll, I was astonished not to see even the tiniest Samantha Steele reference. It was almost inconceivable. I actually re-read that paragraph thinking I missed it because of my hangover. I hope you have some sort of explanation, like an ESPN-related conflict of interest or something. If not I fear that this is the first sign of the beginning of your decline or even worse your Donny-Kerabatsos-leaving-the-last-pin-standing moment. Please tell me you were just fatigued and this never would have happened were he not such an awful NFL QB and thus not so far down the list. Give me something here.
—Bob, Greely, CO

SG: An honest copy-paste mistake. I had a joke in there about Ponder being the single luckiest guy of 2012 (for stumbling into Steele AND Peterson's amazing comeback AND two straight months of going against goal-line defenses) and accidentally chopped it from the final piece. By the way, my readers keep hypothesizing that Steele had some sort of a Kim Basinger/Roy Hobbs effect on Ponder's season. I'm pretty sure she didn't make a difference since Ponder's ceiling is really "a homeless man's Rich Gannon," but let's add her to the Gisele Bündchen All-Stars just to be safe. I'm also adding Allie LaForce preemptively just in case she ever starts dating a great athlete — she might be the only human alive who can derail Peterson at this point.

Q: Every year there are one or two guys (like Peterson this year) who go off late and wreck the end of the fantasy football season by putting up ridiculous stats and virtually guaranteeing a championship for their owners. Think Calvin Johnson last year or Michael Vick in 2009. This player needs a nickname that we can all recognize for easy discussion. Something like "The Wrecker," but not as lame. This way, you could say things like, "I thought I had my league won until I ran into 'The Wrecker' in the finals."
—Rob Ostrom, Strongsville, OH

SG: Hmmmmmm. I'm partial to The Saboteur because you're insinuating that things were going fine until outside forces willfully sabotaged it. Just to be sure, I e-mailed Matthew Berry for his blessing. Here's what he wrote back:

"I love this idea. On our podcast, we have ton of these phrases: 'Fantasy Whac-a-mole' (the guy who shows up one week and then disappears the next), the 'Fantasy Zombie' (guy left for dead who suddenly shows up and becomes relevant, like Knowshon Moreno), the 'Fantasy Goat' (the one player who, in an otherwise huge game, does nothing — like the Seahawks put up 58 points two weeks ago but Sidney Rice had three points) and, of course, 'Fantasy Kryptonite' (among my favorite fantasy nicknames of all time). Since you created 'Fantasy Kryptonite,' I'm on board with 'The Saboteur' given your track record. Just wondering if it would be better if you have a specific example of a 'Saboteur' and use that as the name. Like, anytime a closer gets a save in baseball but it's one of those that the guy gives up two runs, two walks and a hit before the save we always call a 'Dirty Fuentes' (after former closer Brian Fuentes, who seemed to lead the league in ugly, WHIP crushing saves). So what about the Fantasy Rielle (after the lady who ruined John Edwards' political career)? A Fantasy Jar Jar? Fantasy Yoko? For you, maybe Fantasy Bobby V? Maybe your readers can beat those?"

We don't even need my readers. I like Fantasy Yoko — that's really, really solid. Rolls right off the tongue. You could even shorten it and say, "Adrian Peterson just Yoko'd my fantasy title." Done. We're moving on.1

Q: In your latest QB power poll, you mentioned 2012 being, "The Year Of The Rookie QB, The Year Of The Replacement Refs, The Year Peyton Came Back, and The Year Goodell Totally Lost Control Of The Car So Badly That His Dad Had To Take The Wheel." How could you forget "The Year It Was Confirmed That Adrian Peterson Isn't Human"?
—Alex, Northfield, MN

SG: Because I'm an idiot. That should have been the first mention. 2012 also could have been dubbed "The Year We Realized That We Should Never Wager Against Adrian Peterson Under Any Circumstances," "The Year You Always Kept Adrian Peterson On A Wall of TVs Even In Meaningless Games Just In Case He Ran For 300 Yards" and "The Year Adrian Peterson Earned Himself The First-Ever 110 Madden Rating."

Q: I think AP's MVP trophy should be a lock. It's not just the comeback from injury, or shouldering the load for an entire team with a terrible QB. The biggest reason to vote for AP? Separation from his peers. He has outrushed his closest competitor by 30 percent more yards. That's crazy! By comparison, Brees would need to have 1,200 more passing yards than he currently has to be 30% ahead of second place Brady.
—Andy Knuth, St. Paul

SG: I need my MVPs to make the playoffs — that means the Vikes need to win in Houston this week, something that just seems far-fetched. Ponder is strolling into Houston and beating a no. 1 seed? Come on. You beat Houston by throwing the ball on them. I don't even see Minnesota covering, much less winning. If Peterson pulls this Texans game out, wins next week and makes the playoffs, I'd give him the MVP, an ESPY and a Nobel Prize.2

Titans (+13) over PACKERS

Q: My girlfriend and I went ice skating the other night, and witnessed a little girl, probably around eight years old, fall and bang her head against the ice. I helped her up and to the side of the rink, and asked her how she felt. She said she was dizzy, so I told her to stay awake. Her guardian — a "Mr. Mike" — casually glided over after a minute or so, and jovially asked her if she was scraped or bleeding. When she replied no, he said, "Then let's get back out there!" I'm not sure whether I've been watching too much football or not, but I felt like Mr. Mike should be fined $25,000 and possibly suspended.
—Dave, Charleston, SC

SG: That isn't even one of the five goofiest e-mails we're running in the Mayan Apocalype Holiday Mailbag. Speaking of goofy, the Packers have beaten just two teams by 13-plus points this season: Houston (by 18) and Arizona (by 14). They can't put teams away because they can't run the ball; their QB has been sacked 45 times (and counting) and could get concussed by Lambeau's ice-cold surface at any time; and they lose three to six points per game by employing a free-falling kicker whose confidence is more shaken right now than the studio exec who told Judd Apatow, "Sure, I have no problem with you making This Is 40 134 minutes long or casting your kids in big roles, I think it sounds fine." Grab the 13 points and thank me later, if only for the garbage-time TD potential.

Q: You should be cursing this whole Hollinger/Grizzlies thing. You're going to lose all your talent. Next year the Griz will go 70-12 and post an average team PER of 24 and someone will snap Barnwell right up for football. The next thing you know Lowe will be the G.M. of the Wizards, Greenwald will be a network exec at CBS, and you'll have to stop half-assing your articles and write more! So stop thanking John Hollinger, curse his name — cause you're screwed!
—Will Pyburn, Carmel, Indiana

SG: My favorite part of this scenario is Greenwald running CBS — within a week we'd see shows green-lighted like CSI: Philly starring Kyle Chandler, How I Met Your Mother at a Jrue Holiday Charity Bowling Event, Survivor: Midtown and NCIS: Park Slope, as well as Mandy Patinkin replacing David Letterman on the Late Show.3

Q: If Tom Cruise is truly embracing his own irony in Jack Reacher (your theory from last week's column), does that mean he's the next William Shatner? How long before he's hawking hotel rooms? Could he re-do T.J. Hooker for HBO or the Max? In a few years, Heather Locklear's daughter could step up, right?
—JD, Dyersburg, TN

SG: We're like 12 years and two more Mrs. Cruises away from this happening. But tell me you couldn't see Cruise as Shatner in this clip and deadpanning things like, "In the end, what hurts the most is when you realize love wasn't enough." This clip is s-p-e-c-t-a-c-u-l-a-r, by the way.

COWBOYS (-2.5) over Saints

Q: Jason Garrett is coaching for his career facing Drew Brees this week. Lose and the Cowboys are all but out of the playoffs. Why would Brees pour it on and spoil the season, sealing not only the fate of Jason Garrett, but also perhaps his own? No Playoff Cowboys = Sean Payton joining the Cowboys, right? I see Brees pulling an Anti Uncle Miltie, shriveling like a frightened turtle, doing just enough to lose and keeping his coach for next year. Watch.
—PK, Saratoga Springs

SG: Sold! Say no more! The best part of this scenario? Nobody will be suspicious when Brees is throwing into triple coverage because he's been doing it all season. Also, I fully support any scenario that could potentially lead to me wagering against Tony Romo and Jason Garrett in a playoff game — especially if it happens in Round 1 with no. 4-seed Dallas hosting no. 5-seed Seattle. After I hand in this column, I'm going to the Grove (an outdoor mall in L.A.), sitting on Santa's lap and asking for a Cowboys-Seahawks playoff game for Christmas. You know, assuming there is a Christmas.

Q: Your NFL Quarterback Power Poll led me to watch Varsity Blues. Can we really believe the NFL when they say they knew nothing about the effects of consussions, when the writers of Varsity Blues — Hollywood types who probably didn't know much about football or medicine — knew that concussions coupled with the pressures of playing football lead to drowning your sorrows in alcohol and what looked to be a near suicide? And this was in 1999!
—Ethan, Blandburg

Q: Why is no one pointing out that Goodell suspended Scott Fujita and no one, not even Tagliabue, can find one shred of evidence that he did ANYTHING wrong? Goodell even refuses to apologize. Could it have anything to do with the fact that Fujita was on the Players Board in the lockout negotiations? Nah, that would require Goodell to be a calculating, vindictive man who thinks he is a dictator and can get away with anything. On second thought …
—Cory B., San Diego

Q: Is Bud Selig somehow the least worst commissioner now? How did we get here?
—Zain Devshi, Livonia

SG: Yes, those three e-mails were more than tangentially related. I enjoyed how Zain phrased that last e-mail — he's right, Selig is the least worst commissioner. Perfect. Speaking of Bud, my first great teacher — as well as the guy who thought up the Hall of Fame Pyramid that eventually became the biggest part of my NBA book (late Christmas gift alert!), and the guy who taught me never to give anyone baseline — turned 80 on Thursday and it was nice to think he wasn't that old because he's only 19 months older than the commissioner of baseball. Happy 80th birthday, Wally Ramsey.

Q: Huge fan. But has it ever struck you that you hate every commissioner? You take the players' side on every topic. I mean every topic. And yet as a "grown man," you seem to love Vince Mcmahon the Owner and basically "Commissioner" of the WWE (I'm sure it's technically some wrestler or ex wrestler and you probably know who which goes to my point.) Did something really bad happen to you as a child? You seem to like your father but is it secretly out of fear? Was there an evil Uncle? Did you go to a private school with a taskmaster Head Master? Are you actually Pam Grier and stuck in one of your '70s movies that made us all men where there was a Warden who was selling your ass to rich business men? I just want to make sure you're ok.
—Erin, Los Angeles

SG: I'm fine. My mistake was this — I had been foolishly operating under the mistaken impression that commissioners care about serving the fans of their sports. As we've learned over the past three years, they only care about protecting their owners. The NBA squandered 16 regular-season games pretending they were losing money; meanwhile, they have a waiting list of billionaires wanting to purchase their teams and more marketable stars than every other American sport combined. The NHL is about to electrocute two seasons in seven years; the league openly hates its fans — it's disgusting (especially given how loyal those fans are). And the NFL's last lockout was flat-out extortion (my March 2011 column), and that's before their belated attempt to care about concussions, Goodell's sorry performance with Bountygate and everything else.

Even Stern's recent attempt to stick up for basketball fans was misguided — he fined Gregg Popovich $250,000 for embarrassing the league by resting his three best players against Miami, and meanwhile, Stern is the one who allows a grueling 82-game schedule when everyone agrees that (a) the schedule shouldn't be longer than 72-75 games, and (b) every team has seven or eight "schedule losses" (the actual nickname for them) when they're playing a fourth game in five nights, usually on the road (and they're so tired that Vegas actually shifts the line against them). You get injured when you're worn down; it's counterproductive. If Stern cared about NBA fans, he would have pushed to shorten the schedule so we wouldn't pay to see any schedule losses. He'd also fine teams who tank down the stretch, like the 2012 Warriors, who shamefully threw games to keep their first-round pick (and got rewarded with Harrison Barnes).4 But Stern works for the owners, not the fans, so that's the kind of stuff that happens and continues to happen. At least baseball's owners are honest about it — they trotted out an actual owner as their commissioner.

You know what I'm hoping? That Adam Silver becomes this century's first commissioner to put his fans' best interests on equal footing with his owners' best interests. I genuinely think he cares about NBA fans. And if I'm wrong, it's going to be an enormous letdown. But I don't think I am.

Q: The Pepsi commercial featuring Drew Brees singing has to be one of the worst commercials ever, and its extreme awfulness makes me really happy to enjoy how crappy the Saints have been this year. Where does this commercial rank amongst the all time worst commercials ever featuring a professional athlete? Because of this commercial, I can't stand Drew Brees and will never drink a Pepsi again.
—Benjamin, Charlotte

SG: That's not even the worst commercial featuring a QB in the past three years — you obviously haven't seen Joe Flacco's Pizza Hut commercials. As for the worst athlete commercials ever, for me, Pete Rose's Aqua Velva campaign will always be the bar that needs to be cleared. You had …

Pete doing something that seems like singing! (Special guest appearance by the great Vic Tayback.)

Pete and Joe Morgan becoming the Jackie Robinson and Larry Doby of homoerotic aftershave commercials!

Pete somehow being out-acted by his young son!

Pete winning over and apparently seducing a female sports reporter by repeatedly telling her he likes smelling like a man while inadvertently setting the feminist movement back by 20 years! (Special guest appearance by Betty Buckley.)

The moral of the story: There's no way those Brees/One Direction ads will be 10 percent as ridiculous in 35 years as those Rose/Aqua Velva ads are. He's still the Bad Commercial champ. Yet another reason why Pete needs to be in the Hall of Fame. And by the way? HE SMELLS LIKE A MAN!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Patriots (-14.5) over JAGUARS

Q: Just read your QB Power Poll. As a Colts fan and a reader of your columns, I am counting down the days until Tom Brady retires so that you will stop posting your middle-aged pseudo-sexual fantasies about Brady.
—Colin Riley, Miami

SG: I resent the word "pseudo."

Q: Did you realize that Brady threw for 327 yards in the final 26 minutes this past Sunday?? According to the ESPN; 327 yards would rank sixth out of all qualified quarterbacks in Week 15, one spot above Drew Brees which is honestly all that needs to be said. And this was in 26 MINUTES. Either this guy a hyper-advanced and humanlike football robot that Bill Belichick commands through the headset from the sidelines, or he just really hates losing.
—Kahlil Dozier, Cambridge, MA

SG: I thought those four straight TD drives, collectively, were the best hour of football that Tom Brady ever played. He's just never been better. I've been watching him for 12 solid years and that's the only time I remember thinking, He's out of his mind right now. Wait, I better slow down before Colin Riley gets pissed off.

Q: Listened to your Smart-Guy Wednesday podcast — I was horrified when you said you had a theory about when players have babies they lose sleep and thus play like crap. You know who just had a baby daughter? Tom Brady. I was terrified. Then, I remembered that like 90 percent of your theories never come true and that the Patriots and Tom Brady are fine.
—Matt O, Plymouth, NH

SG: Come on, couples making a combined $63 million a year are immune to the New Baby theory. I'm pretty sure a groggy Tom isn't waking up at 3 a.m. to handle his daughter's next feeding. As for the Pats, I see Belichick unleashing the hounds in Jacksonville — they're pissed off about being so sloppy against the Niners. You can't make this line high enough.

Q: Did you switch over to MSNBC during the Niners-Patriots game, or did you stay on NBC and watch the best moment of Obama's presidency?
—Tom, Providence, RI

SG: There was never a question — I stayed on NBC and watched the best moment of Obama's presidency. As a fellow American and a fellow parent, I couldn't have been prouder of him. Great speech. Hang in there, Newtown.

Chargers (+4) over JETS

Q: Hollywood Crony: "Hey, what happened to that Fourth & God sequel you were going to make?"

Hollywood Producer: "It's in turnaround."
—Brian, Jeffersonville, IN

SG: (Shaking my head.)

Q: Sanchez threw an interception into single coverage, double coverage, triple coverage and quadruple coverage on Monday Night Football … the interception cycle!
—Aaron W, Miami

SG: Let's just go ahead and rename that "The Sanchez," just so we can leave the door open for a QB having "The Sanchez" and "The Delhomme" (at least five turnovers including one pick-six) in the same game.

Q: Can we officially make "Mark Sanchezing" a verb after this Titans loss? It would mean to find a new and worse way to fail that still surprises people despite your proven incompetence for years, at everything.
—Zac Peake, Boise, ID

SG: Sorry, that phrase is already taken — it means "to pull off at least four upper-deckers in your buddy's bathroom in the same calendar year."

Q: Do you realize the kid who played A.J. Soprano has had ONE acting gig since the show ended? And it was a guest spot as "Lucky Stiff" three years ago onLaw & Order? Is he in the discussion for worst actor of all-time?
—Irv, Boston

SG: Whoops, I accidentally mixed up my A.J. Soprano and Mark Sanchez e-mails.

Q: I think the worst thing about being a Jets fan right now is that we can't possibly get rid of the biggest problem with our franchise. You can change coaches. You can fire the GM. You can't fire the owner. How am I supposed to have confidence that this guy knows what he is doing? At least fans of other teams know their owners were smart enough to make enough money to buy an NFL team. They are smart and successful businessmen. Our owner simply got born with the right last name. He has been so bad I actually wish he hadn't beaten Dolan in the bid for the team. As a Knicks fan I never thought I would see the day I wish my team was owned by a Dolan.
—Jamie Penn, Wwantagh, NY

SG: Stop it … that's crazy talk. You don't mean that. Everyone needs to settle down. The Jets recently played in TWO straight AFC title games. Ask Cleveland and Buffalo fans if they'd switch places with you. Besides, any season that results in Fireman Ed quitting has to be considered a success, right?

Q: As the final Jersey Shore episode nears, can we talk about how badly MTV screwed up that franchise? They didn't realize what the show is: "Guido Real World." By not recasting before filming Season 2, and allowing the original cast to become stars, they cost themselves a ton of money, and ensured that the show's days were numbered as this group was only going to be interesting for so long. I'm starting to think that the show was secretly being run by the Jets' management. Fist pumps, forever!
—Michael, New York

SG: Don't you love the fact that the Jets are the Jets again? Nobody juggles sarcasm, bitterness and self-loathing better than Jets fans — it's an art form for them, and that's before we get to their abject willingness to get sucked right back into a seemingly hopeless season at any time. If we could ever figure out who created the first venomous message board in the years right after Frank Gore invented the Internet, I'd bet anything that Jets fans were involved. That's what is going to make it so beautiful when they keep Rex and Sanchez for one more year, then hire Norv Turner as their offensive coordinator — something I've been predicting for three years, but dammit, this is the year!

Q: It's amazing to see how bad the Jets are. Their QB has had 50 turnovers the last two years, and has five games with a single digit QBR this year. That's ONE EVERY THREE GAMES. He is now benched for a guy with 0 career starts drafted in the seventh round. The running game is mediocre at best, and their top WR shares a name with one of the Three Stooges. The defense creates no pass rush and is missing their best player. They rank in the bottom five in most offensive categories. They are the worst 6-8 team ever … and they are favoredthis week against the Hopeless Norvs. It's the Incompetence Bowl!
—Taylor, Patchogue, NY

SG: That's why I'm predicting that the Chargers squeeze out a cover without winning this Sunday — something like Jets 4, Chargers 3. You heard me right. Jets 4, Chargers 3.

Raiders (+8.5) over PANTHERS5

Q: You wrote in the "Year in TV" about the number of zombie kills in The Walking Dead increasing after the first two seasons. Did you know a couple guys at the National Post did a statistical analysis of all the zombie kills in each of the 3 seasons? They broke it down by how they were killed, who killed them, what weapon was used, etc. Pretty cool graphic (someone has a lot of time on his hands).
—Geoff W, Mesa, AZ

SG: Speaking of zombies, how 'bout the Raiders getting 8½? I never thought I'd pick the 2012 Raiders to cover again, but the 5-9 Panthers are laying 8½???? Really? And wouldn't it be like Carson Palmer to Yoko about 200,000 fantasy championship games by randomly throwing for 425 yards and four TDs? (See, it worked!) By the way, bah humbug to the NFL for scheduling 12 early games and two late games on Sunday. Ridiculous.

DOLPHINS (-4.5) over Bills
Redskins (-6.5) over EAGLES

Q: A little True/False for you: That backdoor cover of a 10.5 point spread with 30 seconds remaining was the most heroic moment of the Eagles' season. Hint: it's true. This is being an Eagles fan in 2012.
—TJ V, Philly

Q: Does Fourth & God II: God Willing open with Tebow's arrival in Philadelphia? If so, I look forward to buying it in 2020 as part of a BluRay combo pack with Invincible and Silver Linings Playbook.
—Andy Levin, Philly

SG: Yup, it's been an especially rough year for Eagles fans, which got me thinking — haven't there been an unusual number of "it's been an especially rough year for … " seasons this year? Right now, Eagles, Jets, Raiders, Jags, Chargers, Cardinals, Chiefs AND Bills fans are all feeling like they've hit rock bottom (or something close). That's eight teams! And I didn't even mention Lions and Browns fans (who always feel like they've hit rock bottom, so this year didn't stand out), Cowboys fans (headed for their annual holiday kick in the nuts) or Bengals fans (who somehow remained at rock bottom while also contending for a playoff spot). I'll let Daniel Wasson explain …

Bengals (+3.5) over STEELERS

Q: If the Bengals get the wild card, it will be our second playoff appearance in 20 years. Our team is led by our fearsome all time winningest coach, Marvin Lewis (77-80), who has the backing of Mike Brown the Sadist (as of last season his Win/Loss ratio is 4-12 in his 20-plus years). The good news is we're doing it all in style in our publicly funded $500 million (and counting) stadium, while the county who paid to build it mortgages its own hospitals to pay back the worst stadium deal in sports history. Here's a fun fact: Hamilton County actually has to PAY MIKE BROWN to keep the Bengals in Cincinnati in the future. Even us poor bastards who refuse to go watch the Bengals … have to pay for our fair citizens … to not watch the Bengals. You see, even the few hominids with nothing better to do than sit down and watch Lewis call defensive timeouts (god help me), cannot because several of our home games have been blacked out because Mr. Brown doesn't care to showcase his shiny new product to the masses by paying the $100,00 Blackout Fee. My point. Mike Brown is the f-ing worst.
—Daniel Wasson, Cincinnati

SG: Let's just say that I wouldn't mind seeing the Bengals come to New England in Round 1, despite what Barnwell says. As for Bengals-Steelers, Mike Lombardi and I discussed this in Tuesday's podcast but it's worth rehashing here — are we sure the Steelers aren't aggressively mediocre? They can't block; they can't run the ball; their secondary has been crushed by injuries; their "name" defensive players look old; their coach's game management has been exceptionally sloppy this year; they're only 11 months removed from blowing a playoff game to someone who can't even start over Greg McElroy right now; and yet we're supposed to be frightened of them because their banged-up QB has come through in a few big games over the years (but again, he's banged up). Maybe 2012 just isn't their year? I'm leaning that way.

Colts (-6.5) over CHIEFS

Q: Has Bill Barnwell already written his "Why the Colts Won't Be This Good Next Year" column?
—Darron, Brooklyn

SG: Come on, even Barnwell is afraid to go against #ChuckStrong.6

Q: You know it's been a bad year when your fans are actually excited at the prospect of Ricky Stanzi possibly starting. Ladies and gentlemen your 2012 Kansas City Chiefs!
—Jason Young, Kansas City

SG: I found this impossible to believe and Googled the words "Ricky Stanzi" with "Chiefs fans" and "excited." Not only was it 100 percent true …

• There's a movement behind Stanzi getting the Chiefs job called "Stanzi Nation" that even has a "Stanzi Nation" Twitter account (nearly 3,400 followers!).

• The excellent Chiefs blog "Arrowhead Addict" had a post two days ago headlined, "THIS IS NOT A DRILL: Stanzi nation reacts to the possibility of Ricky Stanzi playing."

• My buddy Connor (the only Chiefs fan I know) reacted to my text "STANZI NATION!!!!!!" by angrily texting back, "We should have Sucked for Luck … just like the Chiefs to get the no. 1 pick the year nobody wants it. Am I way off in secretly hoping they get Mark Sanchez?"

(Once again, ladies and gentlemen, your 2012 Kansas City Chiefs!)

BRONCOS (-13) over Browns

Q: I work in the film industry and from time to time my non-industry friends will ask me if I have ever come across Michael Bay. And if so what's he like? And usually I just tell this story. What's Michael Bay like? Let me put it this way, one day I was working out at the Sports Club L.A. and I saw Michael working out in a game day Cleveland Browns jersey with the last name "Bay" adorned on the back of it.
—Brian, Los Angeles

SG: Can't decide if that goes in the "God Hates Cleveland" files or not. Leaning toward no, if only because we posted something this week with the headline, "The Grantland Staff Squeals With Delight Over the New Trailer for Michael Bay's Pain and Gain."

Q: Is Brandon Weeden the Anti-Bo Jackson? He's a two sport non-threat, and in 20 years, I'll still be telling my kids about all the things he was unable to do.
—Philip Wittmer, Dayton

Q: With the way announcers talk about Peyton Manning & John Elway, you'd think that they spent the summer together on Brokeback Mountain.
—Travis, Hattiesburg

SG: As you can tell, we had a two-way tie for the funniest e-mails relating to this Browns-Broncos game. And no, they can't make this line high enough — the one thing Denver has unequivocally proven is that they can take care of business with a big lead. Don't worry, Cleveland, help is on the way. Your new team president, Alec Scheiner, is a Sloan Conference staple and one of the smartest people I've met in sports. You haven't had a good regime running things since the Belichick era — Scheiner and Joe Banner are real dudes. God might not hate Cleveland anymore. It's possible. (And yes, you're only allowed to write something like that on 12/21/12.)

Q: I live in Denver so, obviously, I'm a little stoned, but your Kobe/Russell article was amazing! I can't thank you enough for the 45 minutes it took me to read it.
—Sam, Denver

SG: Does anyone else think the legalization of pot in Colorado and Washington is going to make my 2013 mailbags 5 percent better?

Q: After reading your QB Power Poll column last week and then watching Sunday's games — a dominating Denver win which was 31-3 early in the fourth, and a very tough loss for New England at home — how have your QB Power Rankings and your team Power Rankings changed as a result, if any? We are looking at a very fun January and February for NFL football, which is the first time I can say that as a Broncos fan since the days of Elway.
—Scott J., Denver

SG: I love how Broncos fans collectively pretend that the 2005 Broncos season with Jake Plummer never happened: 13-3, made the AFC title game, dethroned the Pats after they had just won three Super Bowls in four years. Whatever. The biggest QB Power Poll changes since last week: Manning hopped into the top Brady/Rodgers tier by winning that road game; Skinny Josh Freeman (no. 10 last week) dropped into the low teens between Cam Newton and Joe Flacco; Matt Stafford (12) and Tony Romo (15) flipped spots; Colin Kaepernick (18) leapfrogged into Russell Wilson's group; Tim Tebow dropped out of the column entirely once the words "CFL" became involved; Mark Sanchez moved ass-backwards into the Matt Cassel/Brady Quinn tier (the high 40s); and we're adding Matt Flynn to the Locker/Tannehill/Foles group because I forgot to put him in the column.

(Speaking of Flynn … )

Q: Do you think Matt Flynn sees this T-shirt and wants to jump off the Space Needle? Or maybe he'd slink out the back during halftime this Sunday night and just happen to notice that his innocuous-looking car has been moved … to the middle of the field!!!7 Anyway, how does the NFL shop seriously still try to sell this for $27.99? They must know it has negative value. You'd probably have to pay a Seahawks fan to buy and wear this. The only player that should be allowed to have their name in a Nike "______ KNOWS" T-shirt is GRONK, especially after his 18 TD season followed by the Patriots steamrolling to their fourth championship. Oh no, wait, that didn't happen because of Bernard F-ing Pollard. Excuse me, I mean Bernard F-ing Karmell Pollard. I hate him. Wow, that escalated quickly.
—Mike D, Boston

SG: It sure did. Let's hit three other terrible Christmas gifts while we're here …

1. Mark Sanchez's youth premier Jets jersey — A killer gift for your son if he's a Jets fan and he's not being made fun of enough at school. On sale right now for 33.4 percent off!

2. A New England Patriots Super Bowl XLVI AFC Champions Car Flag — What better way to personalize your car than by saying, "Remember that Super Bowl we blew to the Giants in the last five minutes? No, not the one from the 18-1 season, the other one!"

3. An authentic Chad Ochocinco Bengals jersey — Originally priced at $284.99, now it's on sale for just $99.97. Only $99.97 to go.

And one not-so-terrible Christmas gift: To purchase a subscription to Year 2 of theGrantland Quarterly (four hardcover books in all) for yourself or for a late Christmas gift,here's the link. If you want to purchase TWO subscriptions, there's a special deal for anyone reading this column: Enter the code "GRANTLAND" when you're checking out and you'll get $9.95 off each subscription. Good through Sunday night 12/23 at midnight. Oh, and here's our special Season 1 box set — we only made 1,000 of them. Or, you can just splurge for that Ochocinco jersey. It's really up to you.

Q: I was at Target this week and saw that they are now selling a box set ofRocky that only contains the first four movies (and at $7.50, I had to pull the trigger). Since you wrote about throwing out the fifth movie in the box set during checkout several years ago, I assume you have to take credit for this development. Where would you put this on your list of top professional accomplishments?
—Dan, St. Louis

SG: Very high. And thanks for leaving out a snarky joke about the Sports Guy cartoon in there — I really appreciate it. Happy holidays.

BUCS (-3) over Rams
Bears (-6) over CARDINALS

Q: My brother is a big Jay Cutler fan, but I've had to tell him 100 times that Jay Cutler is this generation's Jeff George. I put 8-5 odds on Jay saying/doing something to a teammate/coach in the next three games that gets him run out of Chicago.8 My favorite scenario is a Jay Cutler vs Mike Tice wrestling match in the Chicago locker room (think Pinella vs Dibble) where no one tries to break it up because everyone wants to see how it turns out. Followed by the new regime in Arizona trading a #1 pick to Chicago for Cutler in an effort to keep up with the division. In Arizona they will treat him like a savior until an offensive line worse than any in Chicago turns him into Jay Cutler again and his caustic nature drives nice guy Larry Fitzgerald into retirement (I can't wait to see Larry on FOX). At the end of his career he will end up with the Raiders where he has good numbers for some forgettable 6-10 Raiders teams until he is not resigned. He will then spend 2-3 years being mentioned for every opening on every QB-poor team until people realize he is 40 years old and 300 pounds.
—Joe Burianek, Maple Valley, WA

SG: I enjoyed your Arizona/Oakland scenarios, but we disagree on Cutler's George potential — something that's been a recurring theme in this column over the years. (I think I've flip-flopped on it nine or 10 times.) Check out their career numbers; they're totally different.

Cutler: 91 starts, 20,913 yards, 134 TDs, 100 INT, 60.9% completion, 84.0 rating
George: 124 starts, 27,602 yards, 154 TDs, 113 INT's, 57.9% completion, 80.4 rating

(Hey, wait a second … )9

Q: Isn't it a shame that two of sports' most gifted, respected, and classiest players have recently been left out to waste their primes in Arizona? #freestevenash has become #freelarryfitz
—Basir J., Bel Air, MD

SG: And to think, Pro Football Talk wrote this only 15 months ago (after Fitz signed his monster $120 million extension): "With this deal and the Cardinals' trade and new contract for Kevin Kolb, it's clear that Arizona believes it's going to have one of the best pass-catch combinations in football for years to come." Hey Michael David Smith, can't you go back into your archives and change that to "best overthrown pass/no chance for a catch combinations"?

Q: What's your favorite Christmas song of all-time?
—JP, Ann Arbor, MI

SG: Come on.

Giants (+2.5) over RAVENS

Q: I'm starting to think Joe Flacco is a double agent created by the Steelers organization. They probably got to him while he was at Pitt, made him an offer he couldn't refuse (money, threats) and forced him go to Delaware to keep him under the radar. Then somehow he came out of nowhere to be a first round pick and has shown flashes — he couldn't be terrible because that would be too obvious. He's just good enough to stick around each year and blue-ball us while putting together a good game sometimes so that we say things like "wow he's way better than Kyle Boller." He has that doofy lost look all the time as an act. He's really a saboteur.
…Will H., Baltimore

SG: Let's just say the big Joe Flacco breakout year never really materialized. I think Will just stumbled onto a killer sports movie idea, though — it's like The Manchurian Candidate crossed with Homeland crossed with North Dallas Forty. Get Channing Tatum on the phone, we need to get him attached!

Q: Jim Caldwell is the offensive coordinator for Baltimore? I can see it now, one blink means give the ball to Ray Rice. Two blinks means give the ball to Ray Rice again. Actually, this plan might work.
—Billy Newton, Detroit

SG: Come on, that's ridiculous — Jim Caldwell hasn't blinked since 1993. In other news, I love the Giants on Sunday for all the reasons you'd think I would love the Giants. I'm already pissed about their playoff "upset" victories in Green Bay and Atlanta that haven't happened yet.

Q: I'm working my way through TBOB right now (I just reached the Pantheon chapter), and I noticed that when you discussed Dr. J's broadcasting career, you ended your thoughts with "Some people just aren't meant to be on television" with a footnote that reads "Yes, I include myself." What happened?!?
—Jared Bower, New York

SG: Nothing! You think something's changed? I'm still not meant to be on television. You can see for yourself during our quintuple-header on ESPN and ABC starting at 9 a.m. EST on Christmas Day. On the bright side, it's always been a dream of mine to wear makeup for 15 straight hours.

SEAHAWKS (+1) over Niners

Q: I seem to remember a cooler, more calm Simmons saying that he wouldn't dream of giving up on Seahawks until they lost a home game. What happened to that guy?
—Billy Martin, Seattle

SG: That guy got angry before Week 13, lashed out at his Super Bowl pick and said some things he regretted almost immediately. It's not like I switched my pick to another team, right? I'M STILL ON THE BANDWAGON! YOU CAN'T PUSH ME OFF!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Q: I really hope you realize that the scene in Seattle on Sunday night will be like no other scene from SNF ever. Everyone in Seattle is ready for this game. Since Christmas Eve is the next day, nobody will have to work the next day so the crowd will be buzzing (and I don't just mean loud). You probably know but for everyone who hasn't been to Seattle, Safeco Field( Home of the Mariners) is right across the street from the Clink (Home of the Seahawks) and they are advertising on Twitter on Thursday (3 days before the game) that they will be open 3 hours before the game selling $5 24 oz beers. You can check the official Twitter feed for the Mariners. It is there. And this is Seattle so those beers aren't going to be just Bud Lights. We are talking seasonal microbrews that pack a bigger punch. I can't describe how excited people are in Seattle for this game. You wrote it earlier this year, "The Seahawks will go undefeated at home this year." As long as the world doesn't end on Friday, never go against the Seahawks at home.
—Kyle Miller, Seattle

SG: And I'm not. Seahawks 30, Niners 24. By the way, is there a reason Russell Wilson isn't being mentioned for Rookie of the Year?

Wilson: 2,697 yards, 21 TDs, 9 INTs, 95.5 rating, 68.7 QBR, 402 rushing yards (3 TDs), 9-5 record.

Luck: 3,978 yards, 20 TDs, 18 INTs, 75.5 rating, 65.5 QBR, 233 rushing yards (5 TDs), 9-5 record.

Griffin: 2,902 yards, 18 TDs, 4 INTs, 104.2 rating, 71.3 QBR, 748 rushing yards (6 TDs), 7-6 record.

Can we at least say Griffin is leading, but it's still up in the air? Also, check out this Luck vs. Wilson post and tell me this isn't a conversation. I predict that Cris Collinsworth brings this up by midway through the second quarter on Sunday night.

Q: Was just watching a porno and the girl in it was wearing a Toronto Maple Leafs cap. What the hell? Which sports team logo do you think is the most unlikely to show up in a dirty movie?
—Doug B., Monaca, PA

SG: That's easy — the Winnipeg Jets. Wait a second, are we in range?

Q: I would like to say congrats on the awesome work that you are doing with Grantland. I think that this is by far the best website on the Internet that is not porn.
—Andy, Rehoboth

SG: I guess we're in range.

Q: I got my picky-eating labradoodle's heartworm medication from 1-800-PetMeds with the free milkbone. So last night I was going to take him for a walk, but before I left I broke him off half to eat before we went. He sniffed it, walked away, and I thought "Wow, my dog is a giant douche. You lick your ass, but refuse to eat this treat. I assume you think it's meant for the more common breeds, not a dog of your taste and distinction. You must enjoy pressed kobe and foie gras." So I took him out, but before we left, he ran back to grab the treat and just carried it in his mouth during the walk. I was puzzled as to why he would bother to just carry this treat with him, as he has never done anything like this before. He'll either eat something or just let it sit around for days until I give up and just throw it out. As I was picking up his shit, I heard a crunch. Yes, he brought his milkbone with him to enjoy after he punished the sidewalk. I've never been more proud of my dog.
—Adam, Albany

SG: Hold on …

Q: Think about this hypothetical I came up with while dropping a deuce today … what if every NBA team had to put "Ass" in front of their team names? It's a source of never-ending comedy. You would have matchups like the AssRockets vs the AssWarriors and all sorts of fun combos … the Finals last year would have been an all-time match-up between the AssThunder and the AssHeat.
—Connor, Minneapolis

SG: Yup, these are my readers. Happy holidays, everybody.

Last week: 9-7
Season: 116-104-4

ESPN Insider's top 25 American soccer players
Posted by: timbersfan, 1:18 AM GMT on December 20, 2012 +0
1 Michael Bradley AGE: 25 DOB: 7/31/87 CLUB (COUNTRY) AS Roma (Italy) POS: MF
When Bradley landed at Roma over the summer, U.S. fans worried that playing time would be hard to come by in the Giallorossi's stacked midfield. Instead, Bradley has been a mainstay, while Roma legend (and Italian national team star) Daniele de Rossi -- long considered Francesco Totti's heir apparent as the club's captain -- has had a hard time getting off the bench.
2 Clint Dempsey AGE: 29 DOB: 3/9/83 CLUB (COUNTRY) Tottenham (England) POS: MF
That Deuce isn't atop this list says more about the season Bradley is having than anything else. Dempsey clearly has the confidence of Spurs coach Andre Villas-Boas, even if he hasn't always seemed to be on the same page as his teammates. Missing preseason while his move from Fulham was finalized certainly didn't help.
3 Landon Donovan AGE: 30 DOB: 3/4/82 CLUB (COUNTRY) L.A. Galaxy (MLS) POS: MF
Bradley and Dempsey may not have surpassed the country's all-time scoring leader this year had Donovan's head been right. The three-time World Cup vet is dealing with well-publicized motivation issues, but as his early 2012 loan to Everton showed, when he's at his best, no Yank is better. If he wants to, Donovan can compete for the top spot all the way to Brazil.
4 Tim Howard AGE: 33 DOB: 3/6/79 CLUB (COUNTRY) Everton (England) POS: GK
The veteran keeper has now made 200 consecutive EPL starts, and he has backstopped Everton to within reach of a Champions League berth this season. For the U.S., he's been even better. The famous 2012 road wins in Italy and Mexico (and last month's tie in Russia) probably don't happen without Howard in net.
5 Fabian Johnson AGE: 25 DOB: 12/11/87 CLUB (COUNTRY) Hoffenheim (Germany) POS: D
When U.S. coach Jurgen Klinsmann says that Germany's senior team would love to have Johnson -- the dual citizen played for Die Mannschaft's youth teams before committing to the U.S. last year -- you wonder if German coach Jogi Low told him as much himself. The slick-passing Johnson has been among the best left backs in the Bundesliga all season.
6 Jermaine Jones AGE: 31 DOB: 11/3/81 CLUB (COUNTRY) Schalke (Germany) POS: MF
Jones' club résumé is as impressive as any Yank; the Chicago-born, Frankfurt-raised hard man is the only American projected to start in the knockout rounds of the Champions League next year. Some U.S. fans love to hate the Schalke vet -- who admittedly plays better for club than country -- yet Jones remains central to Klinsmann's plans, too. That's no accident.
7 Steve Cherundolo AGE: 33 DOB: 2/19/79 CLUB (COUNTRY) Hannover (Germany) POS: D
Only one American captains a club in a top-four European league, and that's Cherundolo. How much longer will the diminutive right back -- who has worn the armband for Hannover since the start of the 2010-11 season -- compete at the highest level? Who knows? But right now, that's what he does each and every week.
8 Geoff Cameron AGE: 27 DOB: 7/11/85 CLUB (COUNTRY) Stoke City (England) POS: D
The ex-Houston Dynamo standout has been close to an automatic starter since arriving in England in late August, helping Stoke claim the third-best defensive record in Europe. As if that's not impressive enough, Cameron has mostly played right and left back for the Potters, despite being a central defender for his country.
9 Timmy Chandler AGE: 22 DOB: 3/29/90 CLUB (COUNTRY) FC Nuremberg (Germany) POS: D/MF
If he's in, he's in the top 10. With youth, skill, size and a well-schooled soccer brain, Chandler -- who insists he's committed to the Yanks' cause after almost two years on the fence -- has huge upside. He's also versatile, and he's rapidly gaining valuable experience in one of Europe's elite leagues.
10 Jozy Altidore AGE: 23 DOB: 11/6/89 CLUB (COUNTRY) AZ Alkmaar (Netherlands) POS: F
With 15 goals in 19 games for AZ, Altidore is having one of the best seasons an American has ever had overseas. That success hasn't yet translated to the national team -- Altidore went scoreless for the U.S. in 2012, most of which he spent in Jurgen Klinsmann's doghouse -- but it has piqued the interest of clubs across the continent.
11 Brad Guzan AGE: 28 DOB: 9/9/84 CLUB (COUNTRY) Aston Villa (England) POS: GK
After four years in England, Guzan is finally Aston Villa's first-choice keeper. That he supplanted Irish veteran Shay Given says plenty about how highly he's regarded there. Guzan has been one of Villa's few bright spots this season, and while fellow Premier Leaguer Howard remains the undisputed U.S. No.1, Guzan's recent play makes him No. 1a.
12 Brad Friedel AGE: 41 DOB: 5/18/71 CLUB (COUNTRY) Tottenham (England) POS: GK
Although he retired from international play in 2005, Freidel has been as good as any U.S. player since. So while Big Brad might never wear the U.S. crest again, he remains among the most respected active Yanks -- even after his record streak of 314 straight EPL starts came to an end earlier this season.
13 Carlos Bocanegra AGE: 33 DOB: 5/25/79 CLUB (COUNTRY) Racing Santander (Spain) POS: D
He's on the inevitable downslope of a decorated career, but few American defenders can match Bocanegra's experience, leadership and ability on set pieces. Those qualities keep the U.S. captain an important part of the national team, which will continue to rely on him during the final round of World Cup qualifying, although perhaps not all the way to Brazil 2014.
14 Graham Zusi AGE: 26 DOB: 8/18/86 CLUB (COUNTRY) Sporting KC (MLS) POS: MF
Zusi's stock rose as much as anyone's in 2012, when he went from January camp afterthought to World Cup qualifying starter and MLS MVP finalist. "Zeus" beat out teammates with better résumés along the way, displaying an international-class engine and pinpoint service from the right flank. He's poised for an even bigger role next year.
15 Herculez Gomez AGE: 30 DOB: 4/6/82 CLUB (COUNTRY) Santos (Mexico) POS: F
The Las Vegas native's club season ended quietly after a noisy start to 2012, but with the national team it was the opposite. After being ignored for the first three U.S. games of the year, Gomez started the Yanks' final 10 matches -- including their six World Cup qualifiers -- scoring three goals.
16 Danny Williams AGE: 23 DOB: 3/8/89 CLUB (COUNTRY) Hoffenheim (Germany) POS: MF
Williams would have been higher on this list in September, after his breakout game for the U.S. in Columbus against Jamaica. He's been inconsistent since, and his club is facing relegation from the Bundesliga. The German-born player didn't make Hoffenheim's 18 last weekend. His status with the Yanks -- and on this list -- could slip if he can't win his spot back soon.
17 Sacha Kljestan AGE: 27 DOB: 9/9/85 CLUB (COUNTRY) Anderlecht (Belgium) POS: MF
Kljestan's play this season earned him respect across Europe (Anderlecht shared a Champions League group with AC Milan, Malaga and Zenit St. Petersburg) as well as a recall to the U.S. squad. He has yet to secure his spot on Klinsmann's roster, but his playmaking, toughness and attention to defensive detail have improved greatly since he left MLS in 2010.
18 Terrence Boyd AGE: 21 DOB: 2/16/91 CLUB (COUNTRY) Rapid Vienna (Austria) POS: F
With nine league goals this season, his first as a first-team pro, Boyd is among the top scorers in the Austrian Bundesliga. He was also a regular call-up for the U.S. this year, although he was left off the roster for its most recent qualifying matches. Still, Boyd's willingness to fight should help him keep climbing the ranks.
19 Omar Gonzalez AGE: 24 DOB: 10/11/88 CLUB (COUNTRY) L.A. Galaxy (MLS) POS: D
The 2012 MLS Cup MVP won't have to wait long to show he's ready for the next level; Gonzalez gets his first chance to impress the U.S. staff next month -- unless he transfers to a European club first, something Galaxy coach Bruce Arena won't rule out. Either way, Gonzalez provides a defensive presence and set-piece threat that few Yanks can offer.
20 Eric Lichaj AGE: 24 DOB: 11/17/88 CLUB (COUNTRY) Aston Villa (England) POS: D
Since the end of last season, Lichaj has played in 22 of 25 Premier League games for his huge, if struggling, English club. He's won over two separate Villa managers during that time, and many players on this list don't have the experience the Illinois native has already accumulated. Bet on him working his way into the U.S. squad in 2013.
21 Michael Parkhurst AGE: 28 DOB: 1/24/84 CLUB (COUNTRY) FC Augsburg (Germany) POS: D
Parkhurst impressed for Danish team Nordsjaelland in Champions League group stage games against Chelsea, Juventus and Shakhtar Donetsk -- and those performances helped him land with Bundesliga side Augsburg, which he'll join Jan 1. Parkhurst also appeared in a career-high six games for the U.S. in 2012, proving himself a capable backup at both right and left back.
22 Eddie Johnson AGE: 28 DOB: 3/31/84 CLUB (COUNTRY) Seattle Sounders (U.S.) POS: F
The 2006 World Cup vet ended the year with aplomb for both club and country. The question is, can he pick up where he left off in the new year? Johnson's career has been plagued by inconsistency, but when he's on -- and he was for most of 2012 -- EJ is still among the country's most dangerous strikers.
23 Oguchi Onyewu AGE: 30 DOB: 5/13/82 CLUB (COUNTRY) Malaga (Spain) POS: D
Gooch has struggled mightily with fitness, but much of that is due to the laundry list of injuries Onyewu has battled over the last three years. He may take a while to recover, but when he's healthy and in form, he's still among America's best defenders. Gooch isn't there yet, but he's played six games for Malaga since Oct. 31.
24 Mikkel Diskerud AGE: 22 DOB: 10/2/90 CLUB (COUNTRY) Rosenborg (Norway) POS: MF
The rangy playmaker rebounded from the U.S. U-23 squad's failure to make the Summer Olympics by excelling with his native Norway's most-accomplished club. Mix brings something different to the U.S. attack, and he has already performed with the senior team (against South Africa in 2010 and in Russia last month) despite limited action.
25 Juan Agudelo AGE: 20 DOB: 11/23/92 CLUB (COUNTRY) Chivas USA (MLS) POS: F
2012 was a mostly year to forget for Agudelo, another would-be Olympian who was traded from New York to the opposite coast in May. But the young striker still has enough skill to change a game at the international level, like when he deftly set up Bradley's goal against Russia last month.
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It's Time for a Jets Intervention
Posted by: timbersfan, 12:52 AM GMT on December 20, 2012 +0
NFL teams don't often get the chance to rebuild on their own terms. In most cases, they're the last people to find out that it's time. A team that can scratch some credible way to contention in August finds themselves wasting away at the bottom of the league by November and realizes, after all, that it's time to make wholesale changes. Other teams see the writing on the wall and battle against the truth for a couple of years, desperately clinging to shreds of relevancy as they lose the leverage they'll never regain. The latter explanation, as you probably suspect, aptly characterizes the New York Jets, whose miserable loss to the Titans on Monday Night Football eliminated Gang Green from playoff contention, while crystallizing the need to make a change in their three-man core of Rex Ryan, Mark Sanchez, and general manager Mike Tannenbaum.

The problems that surround the Jets go back to the last time they faced a moment of crisis. After a 4-12 2007 season, the then-braintrust of Tannenbaum and head coach Eric Mangini decided that the Jets needed to go all-in (it was a poker term that was popular in 2007) to try to save the braintrust's respective jobs. Only two years after seemingly beginning a rebuilding project, the Jets spent freely in the offseason, adding Damien Woody, Kris Jenkins, Calvin Pace, and Alan Faneca in free agency, and then following up by trading for Brett Favre. The moves sorta worked — Faneca and Jenkins made the Pro Bowl — but Favre struggled to stay healthy while the deposed Chad Pennington signed with Miami and won the division. The Jets lost in Week 17, missed the playoffs at 9-7, and Mangini paid for it with his job.

Tannenbaum remained on board, though, and after hiring Rex Ryan, he somehow found more chips in his pockets to push to the center of the table. The following year saw Ryan favorites Bart Scott and Jim Leonhard arrive in town, with Braylon Edwards joining the team via trade during the season. The Jets had established themselves as a landing point for veteran free agents and trade candidates, and Tannenbaum performed cap magic to fit everyone in. He even tried to create space in consecutive years for Nnamdi Asomugha and Peyton Manning, but each player chose to head elsewhere.

The downside in Tannenbaum making those moves, though, was that the cap eventually had to come due. No general manager in the league seemed better at convincing his veterans to re-negotiate their contracts and clear up cap space, but that forced Tannenbaum to make concessions that jeopardized future spending opportunities. Players like Pace and Scott re-negotiated their deals and had future salaries guaranteed or salaries converted into signing bonuses that stretched into future seasons, deals that would accelerate if the Jets cut those players. Tannenbaum often found ways to use every bit of the space he created; in many ways, what he was doing wasn't dissimilar from the Isiah Thomas-era Knicks.

Of course, the difference between the Thomas-era Knicks and the first two years of the Tannenbaum-era Jets is that the Jets were winning. You can make a decent case that the success enjoyed by the triumvirate during the 2009 and 2010 seasons was generously lucky. In 2009, the Jets needed six quarters of teams disinterested in competing at the end of their season to worm their way into a playoff spot, and they rode an incredible string of five consecutive missed field goals to make it to the AFC championship game. The following year's team went 5-3 in games decided by one score or less and needed every one of those wins to make it in, and they drew a lame Peyton Manning in the first round. Those teams also recovered just about 70 percent of the fumbles in their games over a two-year stretch, a virtually unprecedented rate of recovery.

Sanchez was at the helm for all of this, but he wasn't joined by very many young players of any renown. With the trades they were making to acquire Favre, Edwards, Sanchez, and other players and picks, the Jets stopped having anything resembling full drafts. The Jets haven't had many draft picks, and of the ones they've had, precious few have developed into impact starters. They had two first-rounders in 2008, missing badly on Vernon Gholston and coming up with a spare part in Dustin Keller, but nothing else before the fourth round. They had just three selections in 2009, finding Sanchez, third-rounder Shonn Greene, and sixth-rounder Matt Slauson. That bounced up to four in 2010, but the finds were marginal: Kyle Wilson, Vlad Ducasse, Joe McKnight, and John Conner. The Jets had no second-rounder in 2011 and no fourth- or fifth-rounder in 2012 (although they finished up with three sixes). Although they appear to have found a star in defensive end Muhammad Wilkerson, their 2011 first-rounder, there just wasn't much left in the cupboard for the Jets if their starters got old fast or their stars got hurt.

Unfortunately for Jets fans, that's exactly what's happened. The offensive line, once dominant with Faneca and Woody, failed to replace them with competent linemen from the likes of Slauson and Wayne Hunter. Investments in the likes of Edwards, Santonio Holmes, and Plaxico Burress left few reps for any young talent to develop at wideout and a lack of cap space to bring in any weapons to serve as a backup. When the Jets finally did draft a weapon at wide receiver, it was the super-raw Stephen Hill, who was forced to start immediately in the absence of any competition around him. The defense has been more competent, but veterans like Pace, Davis, and Bryan Thomas are shells of their former selves. More disconcertingly, even their young building blocks aren't the same; Darrelle Revis will have to prove himself after tearing his ACL, while run-stopping dynamo David Harris has been a fraction of what he used to be for about a year now. (Watch him and Scott disappear on Chris Johnson's long touchdown run from last night.)

That brings us to Sanchez, whose failure to launch has become the ultimate symbol of the Jets' breakdown. The four interceptions Sanchez threw against Tennessee were awful, of course, but it goes beyond that. This was the seventh time this year that Sanchez has thrown 20 passes in a game while failing to complete at least 50 percent of those passes. Nobody else in the league has more than four such games. Sanchez has 14 of them during his career, and the only other player with more than 10 over that time frame is Joe Flacco (12).

The hope was always that Sanchez would develop after spending just one season in regular rotation at USC, but Sanchez simply hasn't matured into a competent quarterback or even a remotely different one. He struggles to set his protections on third down, fails to go through his reads in an orderly fashion, and makes risky throws at precisely the wrong time. Sanchez's final pick of the day was a perfect example of that, a dangerous throw up the seam to a double-covered receiver on first down at the two-minute warning. Even before Michael Griffin — who wasn't even one of the two defenders in the double coverage — swooped in to pick the ball off, the throw was inane because it was such a low-upside, high-downside decision at a time when the Jets could afford to be conservative. It was four-down territory with the game on the line; it was exactly the sort of play where you throw the ball away and try your luck again on the next down. Instead, Sanchez forced the throw. It was a rookie mistake for a player who, if anything, is regressing with his additional NFL experience.

Now, don't fool yourself into thinking that everybody knew that Sanchez was terrible and that the Jets should have realized it two years ago. This is the same guy who was earning points for being a winner in 2009 and 2010, years where the Jets had a top-5 running game and a top-5 defense around him. It wasn't even two years ago where Phil Simms and Boomer Esiason derided the stats that suggested Sanchez had thrown a disproportionate amount of dropped picks in 2010, with Esiason noting the following:

All I can go by is what I see. I don’t worry about dropped interceptions. There are just as many dropped passes as dropped interceptions. Nobody seems to use that argument in favor of Mark. All I can tell you is that when you’re hitting big play after big play on the road in NE, road in Pitt, road in Indy when the game is on the line … that’s all I need to know. All of those guys who write about those stats have never been in that situation and can never truly understand the pressure that is associated with it. When the pressure rises, he calms down and he seems like he’s in control.
It's a remarkable coincidence that Sanchez has seemingly forgotten how to handle the pressure and calm down at the exact same moment in time as his defense has fallen apart from old age and injuries and his running game has sputtered into nothingness. (Or that his interception rate from 2010 is significantly below his rate in each of Sanchez's three other seasons.) There's nothing wrong with believing in intangibles and that certain quarterbacks handle pressure better than others, but you also can't let yourself get blinded by that possibility and assume that a guy's going to win with bad numbers and worse habits forever.

That brings us to this upcoming offseason, where the Jets are widely expected to make some sort of change among that triumvirate while acknowledging that they have to make changes. Of the three, I think the evidence suggests that Ryan is the least culpable for these problems; as tempted as I am to point out that he led a team with Mark Sanchez at quarterback to consecutive AFC championship games and drop the proverbial mic, Ryan has done more than that. The organization has committed themselves to Sanchez financially (more on that in a moment), and in doing so, left Ryan with no option beyond Sanchez at quarterback. With that in mind, Ryan's done an incredible job of boosting Sanchez's confidence and getting behind him at quarterback, even through the rough patches of the past four years. For whatever shenanigans we expected when the Jets brought in Tim Tebow this offseason, Ryan has never entertained a quarterback controversy or given Tebow anything resembling equal time. Although he has been portrayed as a buffoon at times, Ryan plays the New York media extremely well and does a fantastic job of taking the pressure off of his team at exactly the right time. He has also managed to piece together a competent defensive line with spare parts, helping to develop his one blue-chipper (Wilkerson) into a star while getting significant contributions from the likes of Sione Po'uha and Mike DeVito.

If we take firing Ryan out of the picture, that leaves us with two paths, each dictated by what the Jets do with Sanchez. I've written in the past about how the Jets guaranteed Sanchez $20.5 million over the next two years when they gave him a contract extension this past year. Well, Jets beat reporter Rich Cimini took a look at Sanchez's contact and found that it was basically uncuttable before 2014. If the Jets cut Sanchez at the beginning of the offseason, he'll cost $17.1 million against their cap, which is $4.3 million more than the cap hold for keeping Sanchez on the roster. They could wait till June 1 and push $4.8 million of that $17.1-million hit back to 2014, but then they won't be able to make any moves with that space during the previous four months.

So, then, the decision on Sanchez becomes the decision that tells the Jets which way to go. If they truly decide that Sanchez is uncuttable and better kept on the roster, they'll probably be stuck giving Sanchez one last shot to produce in 2013. If they're going to go down that path, they need to do everything in their power to create a situation where Sanchez can improve to the point where the Jets can win football games. That means getting rid of Tebow, adding at least a competent veteran wide receiver to supplement the combination of Santonio Holmes, Jeremy Kerley, and Hill, and, most importantly, bringing in an offensive coordinator and/or quarterbacks coach with a significant track record of turning around quarterbacks to try and rebuild Sanchez from the ground up over the course of one summer. As happy as Jets fans were with the decision to fire Brian Schottenheimer, it's turned out to be disastrous, as Tony Sparano just hasn't been an effective offensive coordinator. Quarterbacks coach Matt Cavanaugh's time is up after four years with Sanchez, too.

The obvious candidate will make the blood of Jets fans run cold: It's Norv Turner. For whatever you can say about Turner's issues as a head coach, his ability as an offensive coordinator and quarterback whisperer is virtually unquestioned. Turner was the only coach before Jim Harbaugh who ever got anything out of Alex Smith, and he was even able to get competent play out of Jay Fiedler with Miami before he took over as Raiders head coach in 2004. Think about him as the offensive version of Wade Phillips, who was a laughingstock as Cowboys head coach before taking over as the Houston defensive coordinator and turning them into a top-5 unit overnight. You fire Sparano and Cavanaugh, give Turner one year to turn Sanchez around, and then re-evaluate things after 2013. It probably won't work, but Sanchez's contract might dictate that you have to give it a shot.

On the other hand, the Jets could be so sick of Sanchez and this lineup that they clean house and move on. In that case, New York will need to use 2013 to get rid of just about every bad contract they have on the roster. It won't be enough to dump Sanchez; they'll also want to cut the likes of Holmes, Keller, Pace, Scott, and even Harris. They would be right to hit the trade market and see what they can get for Revis, whose contract will be coming up in 2014, while floating the likes of D'Brickashaw Ferguson and Antonio Cromartie to see if there's an opportunity to acquire additional draft picks. This Jets team will probably be the worst squad in the league in 2013, but it will at least allow the team to make a clean break with the disappointing Jets of 2011-12 and build anew for the future.

If they do that, it makes sense to fire Tannenbaum. His draft record is spotty, especially since Mangini left town, and his track record of spending hand over fist to try to create a competitive team won't fit with these new Jets for a couple of seasons. They'll want someone who can rebuild the franchise from a scouting background, not a cap guy.

In this situation, they might also consider moving on from Ryan. Although I think Ryan is an above-average coach, he's probably a better fit on a veteran team than he is with a rebuilding one. I don't know that the Jets should necessarily fire him, but if Ryan doesn't want to be a part of a youth movement, could the Jets find a trade partner who might be willing to give up a mid-round pick for a head coach with some track record of playoff success? Could that trade partner be Philadelphia, who's likely to have an opening and want a veteran coach who won't demand personnel control, let alone one whose father became an icon in the town? That could allow the Jets to negotiate a soft departure from the Ryan-Sanchez-Tannenbaum era altogether and rebuild the franchise going forward.

If neither of those options sounds appealing to you, well, welcome to the Jets' nightmare. The window of contention that Tannenbaum seemed to pry open with bags of money is basically shut now, and it's going to take some unprecedented level of development from Sanchez this offseason to pry it back open again anytime soon. The game is telling the Jets that it's time to rebuild, with Monday night only serving to re-shout the obvious into Gang Green's ears. Barring a miracle, the old Jets are done for. The only question left now is whether the Jets are brave enough — or smart enough — to realize it and move on.
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Marquez departure a boost for Red Bulls
Posted by: timbersfan, 1:22 AM GMT on December 14, 2012 +0
A month ago, New York Red Bulls fans were hoping new sporting director Andy Roxburgh would one day turn into a competent MLS executive. Thursday he surpassed their wildest hopes by turning into Santa Claus, as he somehow convinced Rafael Marquez to tear up his contract, head back to Mexico, and rid the Red Bulls of their Designated Bust once and for all.

Various reports have Marquez preparing to sign with Liga MX side Leon. Given that Leon owner Carlos Slim is the richest man in the world, that no doubt played a part in convincing Marquez to leave.

Still, well done to Roxburgh, who is now tallying up the benefits from Marquez's departure. New York has freed up a Designated Player spot on its roster, and is no longer on the hook for the Mexico captain's $4.6 million salary. In a league where value for money is king, the $368,750 in cap space that will be freed up for 2013 is beyond significant.

- It's mutual: Marquez leaving Red Bulls

Better yet, whoever Roxburgh ultimately names as manager will be spared the agony of trying to find a spot in the lineup for Marquez. When he arrived in 2010, the Mexico international was thought to be the kind of central defender who would easily rule over opposition offenses.

Instead, his declining physical state left then-manager Hans Backe in a quandary. Marquez’s lack of mobility and tendency to ball-watch made him a poor fit to play in the back, so Backe was forced to move Marquez into a holding midfield role. He wasn’t much more effective there, and his poor play soon drew the wrath of the Red Bull faithful.

Granted, Marquez often wasn’t available to actually hear what fans thought of him, as his penchant for injury saw him manage just 50 league and playoff appearances out of a possible 88 after his arrival midway through the 2010 season. That comes out to a cozy 56.8 percent appearance rate.

Of course there was more to this statistic than just Marquez’s health. There was also his rap sheet. During the 2011 MLS playoffs when Marquez threw the ball – and hit – Los Angeles Galaxy attacker Landon Donovan, sparking a post-match melee. That indiscretion cost Marquez a post-match red card and an additional two-game ban. Then there was the episode earlier this year in which Marquez rugby-tackled San Jose’s Shea Salinas on a corner kick, breaking the Earthquake midfielder’s collar bone. Marquez could count himself lucky he got away with a three-game ban.

In this year’s postseason the former Barcelona defender delivered the coup de grace, getting sent off with 15 minutes to go in the second leg of New York’s playoff series against D.C. United with the score tied and the Red Bulls a man up. United went on to prevail, making Marquez’s departure the last image Red Bulls fans would get of him. All told, he had more playoff red cards (two) than he did career MLS goals (one).

Yet if there was one episode that crystallized Marquez’s stay in MLS, it came late in the 2011 season following a disastrous 3-1 home loss to Real Salt Lake, one in which RSL scored three times in the first 21 minutes. It was a match in which no one – especially Marquez – played well. Yet afterwards he insisted on highlighting the positive aspects of his own performance and then directed his ire at fellow center back Tim Ream.

Had Marquez displayed a scintilla of self-awareness, it would have gone some ways towards placating the Red Bull fan base. Instead, it only reinforced the perception that Marquez simply didn’t care, and any remnants of goodwill soon evaporated. His subsequent performances did little to reverse that assessment.

One could argue that in addition to selling lots of Red Bull (the drink, not necessarily tickets), that at least Marquez brought some badly needed attention to MLS. The leagu, after all, is not averse to having villains such as Marquez’s former international teammate Cuauhtemoc Blanco on its payroll. But Blanco largely delivered both on and off the field. Marquez’s displays were nowhere near what the league – always in search of gaining street cred with the Latino market – had in mind when they signed him. And the fact that he was allowed to leave with a year remaining on his contract speaks to what little value he had to the Red Bulls.

About all that’s left to discern now is if Marquez is the biggest bust in MLS history. And yes, he does have some competition in this regard. The good folks in Dallas are still trying to forget the performances of Brazilian winger Denilson, whose arrival midway through the 2007 so upset the balance of the team that FCD went from leading the Western Conference to a third-place finish and an early playoff exit. Nery Castillo’s stint in Chicago did little to warrant his $1.78 million salary in 2010. The DP signing of Mustapha Jarju by Vancouver still perplexes given that he failed to find the net during his six-month stay in British Columbia.

But none of those players, as poorly as they performed, ever embarrassed the league and their club quite like Marquez did, whether it was his play, his indiscipline, or his public criticism of teammates. Some might offer up Lothar Matthäus as a bigger disappointment. Granted, the German international sent the wrong kind of message when he opted to recover from a back injury in that noted rehab facility called San Tropez. But by season’s end, he was a solid contributor on a team that came within a game of reaching the 2000 MLS Cup final. Factor in Marquez’s hefty salary that was third-highest in league history, and there can be little doubt that no player has delivered so little return on investment as he did.

Fortunately for New York, that is all in the past now. This move, along with the acquisitions of players such as Jamison Olave and Fabian Espindola has given Red Bulls fans a holiday season to remember, as well as more faith that an MLS outsider like Roxburgh is up to the job.
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The David Luiz midfield experiment
Posted by: timbersfan, 1:21 AM GMT on December 14, 2012 +0
Apart from center forward, Chelsea have looked most undermanned in central midfield this year, particularly after Oriol Romeu's season-ending injury last week. Inevitably, this prompted speculation that Roman Abramovich would be spending again to bolster the middle of the park this January. But maybe Chelsea can find their solution in-house.

We've pretty much heard it since he landed in the Premier League, back in January 2011. Wouldn't David Luiz be better in central midfield?

You could see the logic behind it. His combination of size, athleticism, energy and technique on the ball meant you wanted to find a place for him in the lineup. At the same time, a few major positional blunders left some wondering whether he was really cut out to be a week-in, week-out centre half.

Gary Neville famously said he played as if he was “controlled by a 10-year-old in the crowd on a PlayStation.” Andre Villas-Boas, boss No. 2 of the four David Luiz has had at Stamford Bridge, famously said it was a “stupid” and “ridiculous” thing to say, but there were times when you could see where Neville was coming from.

So, the thinking went, in midfield you could still have his energy, presence and passing, and the odd mistake wouldn't be as damaging as if he was the last man in front of Petr Cech. Yet it took a long time for this to come to fruition.

Carlo Ancelotti's Chelsea played 4-3-3 and could already call upon John Obi Mikel, Frank Lampard, Ramires and Michael Essien in the middle of the park. You can see why he wasn't tempted. Neither was Villas-Boas -- who made a point of adding to the number of central midfielders by picking up Romeu and Raul Meireles -- or his successor, Roberto Di Matteo.

But now, against Monterrey in the FIFA Club World Cup, Rafa Benitez finally pulled the trigger. Luiz lined up alongside Mikel in the 4-2-3-1, with the usual trio of attacking midfielders -- Oscar, Juan Mata and Eden Hazard -- ahead of him.

Benitez's hand was forced somewhat. He only has four central midfielders and one of them, Romeu, saw his season end with a cruciate injury last weekend. Lampard is 34 and just coming back from injury himself. Ramires has been running himself into the ground recently; he deserved a day off. In that sense, this was the perfect scenario for the switch.

Without any disrespect to Monterrey, the slower pace of their football offered a good chance for Luiz to ease himself into this new role. And he still had Ramires and Lampard to come in off the bench should things go horribly wrong.

Luiz did well. His size and strength, coupled with his ability to run with the ball, created a mismatch when he came forward. And when he won possession -- unlike Ramires and Mikel, who tend to look short -- he wasn't shy about going vertical, with accurate balls into space.

On the flip side, he did give the ball away more than the guys who usually play there, possibly because he took more risks. And there were times when he was caught out of position which, against Monterrey, wasn't much of an issue but, against tougher opponents who play at a higher pace, it could be.

Still, you can't help but feel that it's an experiment worth repeating. This doesn't mean that Chelsea's three previous managers got it wrong in not lining him up in midfield. The reality is that Luiz in midfield didn't quite fit the way they played or there were better options at the time. Ancelotti's 4-3-3 had a younger version of Lampard breaking from the middle of the park. Villas-Boas played a high defensive line and required midfielders who pressed as a group. Di Matteo did switch to a 4-2-3-1 but he had enough on his plate last year in simply stopping Chelsea from sinking and, this season, was looking to introduce the kind of short passing game Abramovich supposedly craved.

But Benitez looks to be doing his own thing. Rather than some kind of samizdat Barcelona, his priority -- apart from results -- seems to be getting the best out of Fernando Torres. And that means mixing it up with the kind of service Torres needs: balls into space. It's not a coincidence that, when Torres performed at his best, he had guys like Steven Gerrard and Xabi Alonso offering him that very service from midfield.

This is not to say that Luiz is as good a passer as Gerrard and Alonso. But he does have the long, searching pass in his skill set, certainly more so than Ramires and Mikel. And in Benitez's system, it simply makes more sense. If it works out, it also gives Chelsea the option of stiffening up the attacking midfield by moving Ramires into that area, the way Di Matteo did so effectively last year. The other bonus is that it gives Chelsea another big body on set pieces. Along with whichever two play centre half, the Blues would now have three legitimate aerial threats in the lineup, which is something they haven't had since last year, when Didier Drogba played up front.

But let's not get carried away. In games in which Chelsea are going to be on the back foot, you wonder whether Luiz has the tactical sense and ability to read the game in the center of midfield to make it work. Because that's also something Benitez values, as he showed at Liverpool, when he assembled the Javier Mascherano-Alonso partnership to protect the back four.

Right now, it's something worth revisiting and nothing more. But if it works out, it could mean that Benitez -- supposedly signed in part to get the best out of Torres -- could also benefit Luiz, the other man Chelsea signed in that wild $110 million spending spree two Januarys ago.
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Jose Mourinho's deadly third-season boredom
Posted by: timbersfan, 1:20 AM GMT on December 14, 2012 +0
Dissect any manager and you'll find a weakness. Arsene Wenger is achingly stubborn, Alex Ferguson has secretly forgotten what central midfielders are and Roberto Mancini is actually Steve Bruce wearing a wig, with the scarf to cover the double chin -- allegedly.

There used to be one exception. Only Jose Mourinho seemed to evade the trend -- he'd always won, always been loved by his players and always had a rapport with his team's fans that other managers (Rafael Benitez) can only construct in their own heads. Dissect away, officer! You’ll find nothing here! No, that's not my underwear, it's my wife's!

But eventually something's cracked -- as it always does -- in Mourinho, because perfection, like happiness, is a painful illusion. And you'd be naive to think otherwise.

Eleven points behind Barcelona in La Liga, second in its Champions League group behind Borussia Dortmund having failed to win either game against them and now defeated by Celta Vigo in the first leg of its Copa del Rey matchup, Mourinho's Real Madrid currently looks like a sort of football club version of Ricky Hatton: punch-drunk, tired and perhaps in need of a renewed sense of dignity.

Mourinho blasts players for Copa defeat

If reports are true, the closest thing to a direction the club has had all season was last week when it decided its manager wouldn't stay on after June. The Man For All Seasons has turned out to be The Man For About Two And A Bit Seasons -- a manager only for the short term.

There have of course been rumours about this flaw all along -- at Porto, Chelsea and Inter Milan, only once did Mourinho finish a third season as manager, and it certainly didn't go to plan either -- but there had never been proof until now that "flaw" was really the right word for it. He left two of those clubs on his own terms to move on to bigger jobs, both times after two seasons, so we never glimpsed how the third campaign would look. At Chelsea, on the other hand, the world was quite rightly ready to blame tireless anti-self-awareness campaigner and owner Roman Abramovich for Mourinho's departure after a poor finish to his third and final full season at the club.

After this season, though, those exits ought to be framed differently. What had begun to happen at Chelsea five years ago has been played out in full in Madrid this season, finally giving non-rubber ammunition to those who have shouted all along that Mourinho would never be able to sustain success in any one place. The intensity has dropped off, the consistency of results has gone and cliques within the squad have begun to emerge. We're left to assume that had Mourinho stayed at Porto or Inter any longer, Sergio Ramos and his Alice band would have openly questioned his authority there too.



Angel Martinez/Getty Images
If Mourinho was truly tuned in this season, would Sergio Ramos' insubordination be rewarded with as much playing time as the defender is getting?
Now, undoubtedly part of Mourinho's genius has been in covering up -- or negating entirely -- this problem. Just as Alex Ferguson has worked around not knowing what a central midfielder is by simply deploying dozens of players -- often at the same time -- in that position, Mourinho has always got out of clubs at the right time, just before the magic wore off. But you're left asking why the magic has to wear off at all. The fact that Mourinho doesn't last well after two seasons is a symptom of failure, not an explanation for it. So what's the deal? Why does this keep happening? Is it something I said?

One unifying theory might explain it. Quite simply, it's hard to care once you don't have something to fight against directly anymore. And if your name is Jose, this seems to be a particular problem.

Look back at Mourinho's career and you see the pattern: invent the point, prove the point, then move on. At Porto he won the Champions League with a team that everyone would have said could never do it (as if there had ever even been a question of them doing it) and then left for Chelsea. At Stamford Bridge he knocked Wenger and Ferguson off their half-constructed perches with two league titles straight away when consensus said that it would take time; then he spent an entire season fizzling out until he simultaneously quit and got sacked at the beginning of that fourth season there. At Inter he won the Champions League treble after people had said he couldn't repeat what he'd achieved at Porto, only to immediately walk away.

Now he's at Real. In his first season there he won nothing except the Copa del Rey, which obviously left work to be done last season. But the point wasn't just to win; the point was to prove that one of football's greatest ever teams, Barcelona, could be beaten. How did Mourinho do it? Knowing he'd probably lose on the pitch, he went postmodern and worked outside the genre, going after the Barcelona coaching staff -- introducing Tito Vilanova's eye to his index finger, using press conferences exclusively to provoke Pep Guardiola and turning conspiracy theories into cliche -- and then proved his point not when he captured the league title for Real, but when he forced Pep into taking a break from football. Bye-bye, Pep!

Mourinho didn't just force Pep into changing jobs, he forced him into putting his career into hibernation. And when Guardiola quit, he didn't just move away from Spain, he moved continents -- the footballing equivalent of knocking someone out and then pushing them out of the ring. Into a different continent. Guardiola has since spent nearly a year without a job in football, and the natural assumption (if not the only assumption) to make is that he's waiting to see where Mourinho goes next so he can avoid him.



Javier Soriano/AFP/Getty Images
One suspects that Mourinho's impending next move might be connected to whatever job Pep Guardiola takes, such was Jose's joy at their competitive rivalry.
Mourinho beat Barcelona mentally and then also on points as an apparent afterthought. The point does not get more thoroughly proved than that. But it leaves nothing else to be done at Real. We can probably say that Mourinho doesn't love football -- he may even despise it -- but he loves winning, and that means finding new people to beat all the time. With Guardiola vanquished there's nothing left for him in Spain. Vilanova, of course, was beaten even before he was appointed as Barcelona's new leading man.

These days Mourinho simply doesn't seem interested. After last night's defeat to Celta Vigo he said he was "disappointed" in his players -- despite the headlines, that hardly sounds like a "blast," it sounds like grim acceptance of the status quo. Look at last summer's signings: Luka Modric and Michael Essien. Real didn't need them; they're Ballack and Shevchenko Mark II, players brought in perhaps without Mourinho's consent but definitely without his giving a damn. It goes like this: If Modric wasn't his signing, it's perfect proof that he's lost interest, and if he was... it's also perfect proof that he's lost interest.

If Mourinho still really wanted to win at Real this season, Sergio Ramos' efforts at insubordination would surely have been treated far more harshly. Ramos has been dropped a couple of times for shooting his mouth off but he hasn't been banished from the first team or even publicly bad-mouthed -- it stinks of a lack of effort on Mourinho's part.

The list goes on. Think about it: If Mourinho was trying, would Vilanova have any eyes left at this point? Would he not, at the very least, have given him a bit of a shove at the last Clasico?

Mourinho needs a new enemy to accuse of having the referees in his pocket. The reasonable guess, therefore, is that his eyes are on Manchester already. Either that or he's just planning to go after Pep again for laughs, a superior pursuit in both intellectual and emotional terms. The sooner he has a new point to prove, however, the better. Losing to Celta Vigo, first leg of a two-legged tie or otherwise, is not befitting of a man of Mourinho's managerial genius.
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Memo to Sterling: Sign the contract
Posted by: timbersfan, 1:19 AM GMT on December 14, 2012 +0
When Ryan Giggs broke into the Manchester United side, Sir Alex Ferguson directed him to Harry Swales, one of football's first super-agents. At 65 and in semi-retirement, Swales took the youngster under his wing and protected him from the vultures and hangers-on. Swales guarded his client so well that 21 years later, he's still playing for United, albeit at a rather more pedestrian pace. Raheem Sterling should give Swales a call. Even at 86, he would still be able to deliver the three words of advice that the youngster most needs to hear: "Sign. The. Contract."

You can understand why Sterling's representatives are playing hardball with Liverpool. They're agents, their primary concern is opening an artery and sucking the blood straight out of ... I do beg your pardon ... their primary concern is securing the best deal for their client. But the best deal isn't necessarily the most lucrative deal.

At just 18 years of age, what Sterling needs is stability and trust, playing time and protection. Yes, it's frustrating to see Stewart Downing shanking crosses into the Mersey and then picking up a reported 80,000 pounds at the end of the week, but it's not as frustrating as kicking your heels in the stands at Stamford Bridge or shivering inside a gigantic coat on the Manchester City bench. Sterling really couldn't be at a better club.

In 2009, Rafa Benitez overhauled Liverpool's youth system and brought Frank McParland back to head the academy. Under McParland, the youngsters are carefully cultivated, not just as footballers, but as men. They don't scrub boots anymore, but they are sent out into the community to old people's homes and hospitals. They're drilled in the history of Liverpool and constantly reminded what it is to represent the club. When they make the jump to Melwood, as Sterling now has, the care continues. After so much upheaval, Liverpool are settling down again and Sterling is surrounded by people who care about him and want him to develop on all fronts. In 1991, United were far from the global goliath they are today. They hadn't even won the league since 1967. But Swales knew that they were the right club for Giggs.

Sterling is a glorious footballer, the kind of player whose footwork has even neutral bottoms shuffling to the edge of their seat in anticipation. He terrifies defenders when he runs at them, he never hides from confrontation, he isn't easily bullied and he wants the ball, even when the team is losing. In recent weeks, he has shown a growing awareness of the movement of his teammates and an increasing ability to find them with clever, short passes. He is the most promising player at a club that has had to adjust its expectations since its snout was hauled of the Champions League cash trough in 2009.



Andrew Powell/Getty Images
In Brendan Rodgers, Sterling has a manager who can sharpen his talents without burning out.
But Sterling isn't yet so good that he should be holding Liverpool to ransom.

A move elsewhere might bring in more money. Manchester City certainly has been casting envious glances in his direction. But if Sterling has any sense, he'll cast a glance at Scott Sinclair. The 23-year-old can usually be found sitting on the bench looking glum.

Talented young English footballers have a tendency to take one of two dark paths. There is the ill-lit Michael Owen Avenue, where too many games and not enough rest leads to diminished pace and effectiveness. Sterling, as I wrote here in September, is particularly vulnerable to this. But there is also Gascoigne Lane, where an early exposure to wealth and fame blows your mind to smithereens. Putting an 18-year-old boy on a multimillion pound contract is dangerous. There will be plenty of time to earn that money later. His priority now is making sure that he builds on his talents, that he continues to learn his game. Football is littered with English players who learn a trick or two and then sit back, content to glide through without extending themselves. It would be an enormous shame for Sterling if this is to be his fate.

If Swales was representing Sterling, he would have secured him a sensible contract, with incremental raises to bring him in line with his teammates in the the coming seasons. His primary concern during those negotiations would have been ensuring that his client was happy, that he was looked after and that he was at a club where he could make the most of his undoubted potential. Sterling should ask his representatives what their primary concern is.
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The Designated Player: 2012 MLS Awards
Posted by: timbersfan, 12:53 AM GMT on December 13, 2012 +0
Sorry about that. I dropped my pen.

It’s been a funny few weeks with Hurricanes, snowstorms, Beckhams, and playoffs in my part of the world, not to mention the three days I spent in a darkened room as I processed the concept of Gerard Butler as a Celtic legend, and the week spent on a Manhattan Beach vision quest with Landon Donovan (before he took the decisive penalty in the MLS Cup final it occurred to me that I’d seen that squat before, just before he hurled marshmallows and peyote onto our campfire).

But the bills have to be paid, and with the second draft of my rewrite on the next Lifetime made-for-TV movie due next week (I can’t say too much about it, but the title is L’étranger and the tagline is “Lindsay Lohan IS Hope Solo”), and the confetti just about settled at the Home Depot Center, it’s time to turn our thoughts to looking back on this year’s MLS campaign.

So without further ado, here are the Designated Player 2012 MLS awards:

Best Coach

The big one first — actually, at this point I should mention that my criteria for all these awards has little to do with results and more with how much they entertained me throughout the year.

Unfortunately, Philadelphia’s Peter Nowak, an early front-runner, was ushered out of PPL Park before he could actually go the whole hog on what was turning into a very promising Sopranos routine, as his “my way or the highway” turned into a six-lane autobahn. He took with him the subplot of a five o’clock shadow that, had it been left unchecked, promised to Eddie Gaven its way to biblical proportions, and the further prospect of a bare-knuckle boxing match with Freddy Adu, which may have ended in the Delaware River. His replacement, John Hackworth, was too damned nice to entertain — as was Frank Yallop at San Jose, who’d otherwise have been an obvious front-runner. Frank Klopas looked promising for a while, in that sense of him looking like he’d stumbled to the sidelines by accident, and I overheard some fantastic expletive-ridden rants from his direction, but they rarely had much to do with the game we were watching, and were more a sort of general bawling at the sky as his raincoat flapped in the Illinois winds. It’s apparently why Flaco Fernandez used to take the long way off the field every time he was subbed out (as well as the long way 'round the box during approach play).

Of other contenders, it was always enjoyable listening to the officials' audio feed on my closed-frequency monitor, as the nearside assistant referee giggled at dodgy throw-in decisions he was about to give just in front of Peter Vermes. The Sporting Kansas City coach could always be relied upon to rise apoplectically to his feet at such moments, as well as when he was tormented by other injustices such as the hue of the grass, American Idol voting, people who text in movie theaters, and just about any moment, in any game, ever (see also Kreis, Jason). And having attended a couple of Robin Fraser’s press conferences (which could essentially be boiled down to steely glares and “It’s not funny … ”), I hope he gets back into the game soon. We need gravitas like that when faced with impertinent questions from blogs with names like “Chivas Deference” and “Goatee Beers.” Martin Rennie continually looking like he’d forgotten his homework on the sideline was always an entertaining expression, but like Sigi Schmid’s unfeasibly tight scarf, it was a one-trick pony.

Basically it came down to three front-runners for me. Ben Olsen managed to combine anger and childlike wonder as he watched each injustice unfold against his D.C. United side, and the following monologue before the snow-postponed game-that-wasn’t against New York almost saw him take top prize:

“PLEEEEEEAAAAAAASE. PerrrrrrlEEEEEEEEESE. It’s not even cold. I can’t even feel the cold. They always shut the schools. It’s just a stupid thing they do. Look, I’ve not even got my coat on … I won’t. That’s not even how you catch colds. All my friends are here. I’ll wear gloves. We’ll DEAL with it. My guys are raring to go. My guys are raring to go. Unbelievable.”

Reports that Hans Backe muttered that the same snowstorm was “like Sweden, in a way, which I left, by the way,” could not be confirmed. Backe may have left New York, but he will forever be in my heart with his comedic substitutions — a tactic he employed about as often and with as much integration into his workflow as a 1980s CEO might idly set a desktop executive toy in motion.

But for me there can be only one winner: Bruce Arena. So many moments make it worth it, and honestly, winning a back-to-back MLS Cup after giving the entire league half a year’s head start, and losing to Chivas and New England along the way, figures pretty low on the list. In just the past week, he has told us that he and Robbie Keane grew up together gazing at sneakers in the Fulton Mall, and that the latter is one tough bastard, before segueing into a full Lordz of Brooklyn medley, with Keane himself on silent beat box — setting the tempo by switching at random between his two looks of twinkly cheer and furrowed confusion. Encouraged by Arena’s bonhomie, several reporters joined in nervous laughter at the post-Cup-final press conference, at which point Arena fell silent for the next 25 minutes. He then stared imperiously down in slow scans of the room, licking his lips occasionally, and only rose when the ink on the proposed postseason tour schedule in front of him actually slinked off the page in embarrassment. Nodding grimly, Arena smiled again, closed his eyes, and whispered “next person I see is a dead man” before opening his eyes to an empty Home Depot Center TV room full of scattered chairs. He left the scene in a golf buggy and a Hawaiian shirt and carrying the Designated Player Coach of the Year Award, which he promised to “treasure forever.” It was later found in a hedge in Parking Lot 13.

Team of the Year

Again, it’s very tempting to give this to the Galaxy, what with them winning it all and all that. And yes, again, honorable mention to the New York Red Bulls — who may wish to consider a switch to a sponsorship from Orville Redenbacher, so suited are their daytime-soap-opera antics to the concurrent consumption of popcorn. Sporting KC and Houston Dynamo were too much like proper teams to ever seriously catch my eye. Portland Timbers almost made it for their comedy stylings against Cal FC in the U.S. Open Cup, but by the end of the year that was forgotten as they carried off the Cascadia Cup in a manner that we’ll file under “least worst on the day.” Toronto, too, were … well, more of them in a minute.

But the winner, by some distance, was the swarming attack of the San Jose Earthquakes, seen here in one of their dramatic stoppage-time comebacks:


At least part of the joy the Quakes brought me this year was the sense of anticipation for their Champions League adventures as cultural ambassadors for MLS next season. CONCACAF referees, meet Lenny … actually, New York, pass the popcorn.

Best Player

Again, on purely footballing terms, Chris Wondolowski’s wonderful goal-scoring record — or the Robbie Keane that returned from the Euros and drove the Galaxy through to the Cup — would probably be fighting it out, but the former’s humility and willingness to study the game discounted him early. Keane further edged it with his continued impression, during interviews, of a motorbike dispatch rider who’s turned up at the TV studios and been mistaken for the guest, and who, somewhere in makeup, decides it’s easier not to explain and just give it a bash answering questions about the fiscal cliff.

Thierry Henry’s continued aggressive assimilation into American life meant that he asked to be withdrawn from the running, as he’s now “strictly old-school lacrosse, d’accord?’ Otherwise he’d have been a contender.

Fans of the Year

I know this award is usually Scotch Taped inside the Cascadia Cup, for the contestants to argue over, and honorable mention has to go to the New England, Chivas, and Toronto fans for experiencing character-building above and beyond the call of duty (your Sunderland season tickets are in the mail). But the award goes to the D.C. fans who traveled for four hours each way on buses only to be sent home in the snow and then having to do it all again the next day up in New York. In 20 years there will be approximately as many people claiming to have been on both journeys as now claim to have been to see the Sex Pistols at the Lesser Free Trade Hall — so I encourage all those who actually were there to collect and safely encrypt all verifying data now. Such trips are what legends are made of. At least I expect they are. I thought it looked a bit cold around 4 p.m. and watched it on TV.


Game of the Year

San Jose 4, Los Angeles 3. C’mon …


Villain of the Year

I am fascinated by Rafael Marquez. Like with spam e-mails, it’s hard to escape the feeling that he’s actually a prank being played by a comparative literature department somewhere. He starts games with the neat economy of style of a Raymond Carver sentence, and ends them in the sleepwalking violence of a Bret Easton Ellis character. His apparent insistence that these are reconcilable internal modes, and even tenses, also has the hallmarks of magical realism, while his playing with an apparent lack of memory, or sense of cumulative transferable knowledge, is straight out of a David Markson novel …

I received the ball. I moved it fast, without fuss. It was a cold night. The air stung, hard. I received the ball. I looked up. A beat. I chose the man and passed. I received the ball. A sideways turn and another pass. I stepped forward. I retained possession, with a block and a glance. A man to my side. I punch him in the face then Iunge, Phil Collins loud in my ears as I shove my business card in the nape of his shirt and press. I lash out in desperation — “There is an idea of a Rafael Marquez, some kind of abstraction, but there is no real me. Only an entity, something illusory.” then walk from the field. Everyone stares. This is not an exit.

[Pause for three weeks.] I received the ball. I moved it fast, without fuss. It was a cold night …
One final note: The most bizarre part of a Marquez sending-off is the way he trots off the field instantly and meekly after each one. It’s like the red card is his safe word.

Special bonus on any Rafa infraction when it’s NBC’s Arlo White calling the incident — Arlo, the last man in the world to speak the Queen’s English, is at his best wondering what the world is coming to …

Video of the Year

Two leading candidates for me. The first is from that epic D.C. vs. New York playoff series, and it’s the heroic grandstanding of D.C. United goalkeeper Bill Hamid. Bear in mind he’s dropped the ball in the net during the first leg to concede an equalizer, just been sent off in the second, and his side will concede three in the next game with him out. Bill strips to the waist, strides into the area in front of the glass-walled lobby of Red Bull Arena (watched open-mouthed by 8-year-old autograph hunters), and tells the world and a lone stringer for Soccer by Ives, “They can’t hold us back.” It’s that type of perspective that may make him my new favorite player.

The winner, though, is Wolfgang Peterson’s bleak masterpiece, Das Boots, starring a deep-Method Joaquin Phoenix as Toronto’s Danny Koevermans:


On that note, the following are castings we need to see in future clips:

Thierry Henry — Daniel Day-Lewis
Bruce Arena — Steve Buscemi
Eddie Johnson — Jamie Foxx
David Beckham at 50 — A hologram of John Candy (if there’s any justice)
Frank Yallop — Gordon Ramsey
Rafa Marquez — Joe Pesci (just because)
Robbie Keane — Colin Farrell

Graham Parker (@kidweil) leads the U.S. and MLS soccer coverage for the Guardian. He also writes for Howler
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The Rise of the Middle-Class Coach
Posted by: timbersfan, 12:52 AM GMT on December 13, 2012 +0
The most interesting thing college football coaches did this month was to stay put. If you believe what you read, Charlie Strong, Mike Gundy, James Franklin, Gary Patterson, and Chris Petersen all had chances to leave their schools for bigger, more storied programs. None of them did. Collectively, they are college football’s new middle class, a well-paid group in no hurry to move.

College football, like America, has its rich and its middle class. Unlike an electrician, of course, a middle-class college football coach makes millions even when he fails. But stick with the analogy for a second.

Take Alabama and Vanderbilt. Bama is a rich school, with lots of national titles (some of them legit) and athletic revenue that last year topped $125 million. Vandy is a middle-class school, and that’s mostly because of its membership in the SEC. “When I took this job in 2003,” Vanderbilt athletic director David Williams said recently, “this was a stepping stone for coaches.”

If Vanderbilt ever found a good football coach, he was underpaid and highly poachable. In 2009, Alabama’s Nick Saban earned $3.9 million (before bonuses) compared to about $1 million for Vanderbilt’s Bobby Johnson. (Vanderbilt is a private school and doesn’t have to release salary information.) Saban and Johnson shared the 2008 SEC Coach of the Year Award.

Two things have happened: First, TV contracts have grown so much that nearly every BCS school has a pot of money. Second, college football continues to distribute that money by conference rather than by team. So when CBS pays the SEC $825 million and when ESPN gives it $2.25 billion, Vandy and Alabama pocket equal shares.

There’s still a significant gap between the two. Using USA Today’s invaluable coaching salary database, we find Saban now makes $5.5 million, while Vanderbilt’s James Franklin makes “approximately $3 million.” But look how the gap between the classes has shrunk. Today, Vandy’s coach makes 55 percent of what Bama’s makes versus 25 percent in 2009. Moreover, the pile of money Franklin takes home has gotten enormous. When Penn State (reportedly) puts out feelers, there’s less of a reason for Franklin to leave.

You see this happening all over college football. Louisville is a classic stepping-stone job — ask Bobby Petrino. Even Charlie Strong complained that the Cardinals’ outstanding 2012 season ended with 10,000 empty seats. "We're sitting there at [9-1] ... and we don't even pack the stadium," Strong said. When other schools began to circle him after the season, Strong used coachspeak to say goodbye: “I'm not here to discuss the rumors.”

When Tennessee offered Strong a $3.5 million per year to leave, it seemed like a slam dunk. But then Strong did the math. Louisville was already paying him $2.3 million per year. By turning down the Vols, he could get a new contract that would span eight years. Tennessee may be a “better” job — in terms of seats, Rivals rankings, etc. — but it’s not that much better. Strong stayed at Louisville. “This is a destination place, and that’s what I want it to be,” AD Tom Jurich crowed.

This offseason, Arkansas singlehandedly proved how tough it is to poach a middle-class coach. The Razorbacks’ wish list reportedly included both TCU’s Gary Patterson and Oklahoma State’s Mike Gundy. In previous decades, TCU (Dennis Franchione) and Oklahoma State (Les Miles) are the kind of places you’d go to get a coach. But it's not so easy anymore. Thanks to mega-donor Boone Pickens, Mike Gundy made $3.2 million this year. TCU paid Patterson $3.5 million. Arkansas gave its eventual hire, Bret Bielema, $3.2 million. Which isn’t much of an incentive to play Miles and Saban every season.

Chris Petersen is paid about $2 million per year at Boise State. Cal, the latest school to try to hire Petersen, paid their former coach Jeff Tedford $2.6 million. Could Cal have come up with a richer deal for Petersen? Sure. Would it have been rich enough to lure him out of Idaho? It seems not. Cal hired Sonny Dykes instead.

This isn’t to say there aren’t vast income disparities in college football. San Jose State’s Mike MacIntyre (salary: $412,000) got a big raise at Colorado. Wisconsin’s Bret Bielema got only a modest raise from Arkansas, but said the Razorbacks could pay more for top assistants. The gap between the richest and poorest FBS schools has grown even bigger. Ten years ago, New Mexico State’s coach made about 15 percent of what Alabama’s coach made. Now, the Aggies’ coach makes about 15 percent of what Vanderbilt’s coach makes.

But the creation of a middle class — one that’s well-paid, insulated from pressure, and in no rush to leave — has interesting effects on the sport. One, it hurts the schools like Tennessee and Arkansas. They’ve lost some of their ability to “money-whip” candidates. The Vols reportedly got turned down by Gundy, Strong, and Jon Gruden before poaching Butch Jones from the Big East.

Good coaches at TCU and Oklahoma State add variety to the postseason. If college football had had a four-team playoff in place, Gary Patterson’s 2010 team and Mike Gundy’s 2011 team probably would have qualified. If Gundy and Patterson think they can win national championships at their current posts — something the expansion of the playoff probably encourages — then there’s even less incentive to leave.

Finally, the rise of the middle-class coach changes the coach’s approach to job-hunting. No longer does he have to machete a Franchione-like path from one college town to the next. No, he simply lets the rumors circulate. He gets nice raises. If, and only if, a really rich school comes calling — Ohio State, Texas, Michigan, et al. — does he think about pulling the trigger. I never thought I’d say this about college football, but score one for income equality.
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Is Luiz Felipe Scolari the Right Man to Manage Brazil?
Posted by: timbersfan, 12:50 AM GMT on December 13, 2012 +0
Last week, Brazil lost the 2014 World Cup.

Not the job of hosting of the event, which they apparently aren’t exactly succeeding at right now, though it seems that every host nation of a major sporting event falls behind schedule on stadium and infrastructure projects. But given that over the weekend FIFA held the draw for the Confederations Cup, the World Cup's dress rehearsal, Brazil's host-nation status is as safe as kittens.

No, Brazil lost the World Cup competition. (An impressive feat, considering no games have been played.) They’ve already lost, because they’ve hired Phil Scolari to manage the Seleção, the national football team. Actually, they’ve rehired him.

On a cursory glance, Scolari, who led the country to a 2002 win in South Korea and Japan, seems like a solid pick. In his three international managerial stints, Scolari has won a World Cup (Brazil), been to a Euro final (Portugal), and won another regional championship of marginal import (Kuwait).

But that's history. And there were better options. Or option, singular. Before Scolari was announced, it was rumored that Pep Guardiola was not only interested but that Brazil was the one job for which he would break his self-imposed sabbatical. Guardiola's non-Brazilianness probably made him a non-starter (but if there were any available candidate whose résumé made nationalism an afterthought, it was probably Pep).

With their tiki-taka style of play, Guardiola's Barcelona squads superseded Brazil's joga bonito as the de facto standard for the beautiful game. It's a horribly imperfect perfect example, but the one notable occasion when Guardiola faced Brazilian opposition — in the final of the 2011 Club World Cup — his Barcelona side humiliated South American champions Santos, 4-0. It wasn't even close; after waltzing to a 3-0 halftime lead, the Catalans coasted during the second 45. Yes, having Messi, Xavi, and Iniesta helped. A lot. Still, advantage Pep.

Moreover, Scolari has been on somewhat of a downward trajectory since 2002. It’s true that after winning the World Cup, you can’t really climb any higher, but after his victory in '02, Scolari took over Portugal's national side and guided them to a second-place finish at the 2004 Euro and a fourth-place finish in the 2006 World Cup. On the one hand, it is a small miracle to be remotely competitive playing a 5-5-0 formation; take the Euro 2004 tournament. Portugal, the host nation, lost the final to an undermanned Greece. What’s worse: The defeat came when Scolari had his pick from the enduring players of the country's Golden Generation (Luis Figo, Nuno Gomes, João Pinto, Rui Costa), as well as Deco and a budding superstar in Cristiano Ronaldo, and still couldn't put his hands on the trophy.

Scolari then landed at Chelsea FC. With one of the world's most expensive squads at his disposal, he won nothing (unless you count the Community Shield) and failed to last an entire season. So, of course, he goes to Uzbekistan. Yes, some club called FC Bunyodkor paid him ¬13 million to move to Central Asia. It also tried to tempt half of the Barcelona squad with piles of cash before settling on a past-his-prime Rivaldo and Denilson (and not even the Denilson whom Arsenal can't get rid of). The stated goal of hiring Scolari was to win the very lightweight Asian Champions League, which FC Bunyodkor twice failed to do, crashing out in the quarters in 2009 and the round of 16 in 2010.

Scolari ended up back in Brazil at the helm of Palmeiras. After a series of bad league results that left his club in danger of relegation, he was fired. (Palmeiras would eventually drop to Serie B for only the second time in club history.)

Ultimately, it was really that simple: Brazil had a choice between the only person to ever win the Sextuple and an old guy who was available because he had just driven a domestic club into relegation.

The worst part isn’t that Brazil overlooked Guardiola in favor of Scolari. It’s that their decision seems remarkably similar to what Italy did in the run-up to the 2010 World Cup.

After Marcello Lippi steered Italy to its fourth World Cup crown in 2006, he retired and was succeeded by Roberto Donadoni, who, despite some early poor results, topped his Euro 2008 qualifying group, then proceeded to play some horribly dire and negative football (even by Catenaccio standards) in Austria-Switzerland.

Donadoni was sacked and Lippi brought back. He secured the Azzurri a spot in South Africa and named a squad that relied heavily on much the same nucleus (read: old players) that prevailed in Germany four years prior.

Defending his selection, Lippi said, "The World Cup is about seven games over a month, we don't necessarily need all the players to be 24 years old. If I had to use this team over an entire league season I'd probably make some different selections. But for a month it's not a problem."

He was wrong. It wasn't seven games and it wasn't a month. Italy's old-ish team lost one, drew two, and finished dead last in its group behind even New Zealand, the lowest-ranked side to make it to South Africa. They were sent home after just 10 days.

At his introductory press conference last week, Scolari seemed to acknowledge the youth at his disposal as somewhat of a necessary inconvenience while indicating that the old would be welcomed back into the fold: "We have experienced names who may come back into the team and contribute."

The man Scolari is replacing, Mano Menezes, was sacked because of less-than-stellar results with a side that heavily relied on youth and unproven internationals. (A side that, it should be said, seemed to be turning a corner, despite a loss to Argentina and draw with Colombia last month.) And the concurrent hiring of Carlos Alberto Parreira — who guided Brazil to the 1994 World Cup — as the country's technical director doesn't give the impression that the folks at the Brazilian Football Confederation are very forward-looking. As long as they are looking back, they should really look back at what happened to Italy a little over two years ago. It might help them not lose. Or worse, draw twice and lose.
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The Pelican Brief
Posted by: timbersfan, 12:49 AM GMT on December 13, 2012 +0
T he New Orleans Hornets are changing their name to the New Orleans Pelicans at the start of the 2013 season. In my opinion, the Hornets never really existed in New Orleans — there just happened to be an NBA team playing there since 2002. Their greatest achievement is paving the way for basketball in Oklahoma City after their team relocated there because of Hurricane Katrina during the 2006 season. Oklahoma City was able to support a team that no one in New Orleans was even interested in. Hell, if the Hornets had just stayed in Oklahoma City, there probably wouldn't have been much backlash in the Big Easy.

I often wonder why the Hornets haven't resonated with New Orleans after more than a decade. The team has had relatively successful stretches. Fans even got to watch a great, homegrown player in Chris Paul. This is a town that embraces the Saints whether they win or lose. The city's culture is based on celebrating life on a nightly basis. Especially after Katrina, any local business, no matter how large or small, became a symbol of hope and restoration. So why do the Hornets still feel like a homeless NBA franchise?

New Orleans is a Saints town; the Hornets just happen to play in the outdated arena across the street. I remember my first Hornets game, in the poorly attended 2005 season, when the team finished last in NBA attendance. My mom and brother came to town to drop me off at Tulane University, and we decided to go to a game one night after seeing an advertisement for incredibly cheap tickets. We bought three in the upper level, where we found a group of kids in our seats. They hadn't quite stolen them — the entire upper level had degenerated into a lawless general-admission section. Maybe this happens in other struggling NBA markets, but it operates in sharp contrast to the fan experience (and seating price points) that ushers protect at premier NBA arenas. Truthfully, there weren't enough people in the upper level to justify its preservation as anything more than a free-for-all. No one really cared.

There are two problems with the Hornets brand. First, they still have that awkward 'new franchise smell' from the 1988 expansion that birthed them alongside the Orlando Magic, Miami Heat, and Minnesota Timberwolves. Those franchises have crafted solid playoff runs, featured signature players who single-handedly elevated their franchises, and left their fans with on-court memories that transcend the post-ironic throwback gear market. But not the Hornets. Even famous '90s Hornets Larry Johnson and Alonzo Mourning, the franchise's most iconic players other than Paul, are more vividly remembered for their time on the Knicks and Heat, respectively.

The other problem is that the Hornets don't evoke the sense of pride that New Orleans demands from anything they can call their own. Sure, the Pelicans sounds like a silly name, but it could be their silly name. Anything that isn't 'boring' would probably sound silly. There's a risk in untraditional names, but that risk pays off in the long run. This explains why the generic Charlotte Bobcats don't have an identity of their own, and just hearing the words 'Brooklyn Nets' together still feels awkward. Unique franchises tap directly into local roots — they shouldn't share a name with thousands of America's youth soccer teams.

And New Orleans already has some pretty weirdly named sports teams. The minor league baseball team, a Triple-A affiliate of the Miami Marlins, is called the Zephyrs. Tulane University is home of the ambiguous Green Wave, who actually have their own pelican, named Riptide, roaming the sidelines at games. Even Isidore Newman School, the alma mater of Peyton and Eli Manning, is known as the Greenies. What do they all mean? I graduated from Tulane and I'm still not sure. But they all sound like they belong in New Orleans. So do the Pelicans.


ANDREW D. BERNSTEIN/NBAE/GETTY IMAGES
The Pelicans rebrand offers New Orleans a chance to have something that is legitimately their own after a decade of instability. Earlier this year, Saints owner Tom Benson purchased the Hornets from the NBA, a good move for the direction of the franchise on all fronts. Before Benson's ownership, the NBA had purchased the Hornets from Charlotte escapee George Shinn to show their 'commitment to remaining in New Orleans.' Unfortunately, the Hornets felt more like a bargaining chip for the CBA negotiations than an NBA franchise run with the goal of winning an NBA championship. Those Hornets were a sham. Players or fans never felt like they were part of 'something bigger,' which is required to take a franchise's identity to 'the next level.'

How many New Orleans Hornets fans have been created in the past 10 years? Who was there to watch Jamal Mashburn's amazing production on a terrible team? Who was there to watch the early days of Baron Davis as he perfected the art of the injury vacation? Who remembers when the Hornets hired Tim Floyd right after he stunk it up in Chicago? Who watched the rookie year of J.R. Smith, drafted out of high school, jacking up horrible shot after horrible shot as Byron Scott looked on in horror? At this point, who even remembers Chris Paul in a Hornets uniform?

The lack of local backlash concerning the Chris Paul departure always baffled me, but there was also a general fan feeling that he 'paid his dues' and 'probably deserved better.' Paul accomplished a lot in New Orleans; with the help of the underrated David West, he proved himself by taking mediocre rosters deeper into the playoffs than they had any business getting. He also single-handedly created the modern-day Tyson Chandler. However, Paul ultimately failed New Orleans because he Dwight Howard–ed his way out of town, only with more finesse and a just bit more justification. It's hard not to see his angle now that, as a member of the Los Angeles Clippers, he is one of the most appropriately appreciated players in the league.

But at the same time, being 'the guy' in New Orleans is a unique social opportunity and responsibility. It isn't for everyone. Think about how much Drew Brees means to New Orleans. That's because Brees embraces the social responsibility of being a New Orleanian. He's face of a city that is at risk of disappearing every hurricane season, someone who unifies the town across class and race lines, even if it's only for the seemingly meaningless duration of an NFL game. He's 'just' a professional athlete, but in New Orleans, public figures carry a heavier burden than just being famous. In a way, the 'Charlotte Hornets' could never shoulder the expectations of being in New Orleans.

New Orleans offers the purity of a small market, with big-market adoration for its teams and players. An NBA team should work there. If anything, the Pelicans can belong to Anthony Davis more than the Hornets ever could. The name change is probably the first step for Davis to take ownership of this team. He's building the Pelicans, not salvaging the legacy of the Hornets. With the Benson sale, David Stern has ensured that the NBA will have roots in New Orleans. Now we'll see if New Orleans wants to wrap its arms around the Pelicans.
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Fourth and Short: It's Only One Game, Houston
Posted by: timbersfan, 12:48 AM GMT on December 13, 2012 +0
Patriots-Texans looked like Monday Night Football's most mouthwatering tilt for about 19 minutes of game time last night. By the time New England finished its third drive, the Pats had a 21-0 lead that the Texans never came close to challenging the rest of the way. Houston fans could argue that they were unlucky — who knows what happens if the Texans recover a Stevan Ridley fumble inside their own 5-yard line and Matt Schaub avoids a killer interception in the end zone on the ensuing series — but on the whole, they were outplayed by the Patriots and were clearly the second-best team on the field. (Also, the Texans had recovered 66.7 percent of fumbles in their games this year, the league's second-best rate, so they've been lucky there.)

By the time that Ryan Mallett was throwing interceptions and Mike Tirico was rooting for the over to come in, it was safe to say that we had learned a fair amount about how these two teams might interact if they meet again in the AFC playoffs. We learned that the Texans aren't quite the same offensively if they can't force teams to honor their run-action on play fakes, but that they can still probably throw the ball on anybody by creating mismatches with Owen Daniels on drag routes. We learned that Tom Brady is still comfortable throwing to anybody on any down, even if it's Donte' Stallworth, and that he's still going to get inappropriately excited about running for a first down up three scores at the end of the third quarter. But do we know, definitively, that the Texans aren't ready to compete at the highest level?

The topic that came up after the game was that the Texans might not be ready for prime time, both figuratively and literally. That manifests itself in a number of ways, each of which we can analyze to see if there's any truth.

For one, Matt Schaub's numbers in night games are awful. After you add his disappointing performance against the Patriots to the mix, Schaub's day-night splits are stark:

SCHAUB DAY-NIGHT SPLITS

Splits Gms Cmp Att Cmp % Yds Yds/Att TD INT
Day 85 1,580 2,423 65.2% 19,145 7.9 109 57
Night 10 171 301 56.8% 2,085 6.9 10 11
You generally don't want your franchise quarterback turning into Derek Anderson once the sun goes down when the Super Bowl is going to be a night game. Ten games isn't an enormous sample, but 300 pass attempts isn't exactly a sample you can write off as a bad day, either. Is there some further insight that helps explain why Schaub's been so bad at night?

Well, there seems to be one obvious answer: Night games take place in prime time, which usually means superior opposition and tougher defenses. That's a testable hypothesis! Schaub has eight starts as the Texans quarterback underneath the prime-time lights, which account for 294 of the 301 pass attempts referenced in the table above. I went back and noted how each of those eight opponents ranked in terms of their pass defense DVOA, and I found that the concerns about his strength of schedule in night games are marginal. Schaub has faced one top-ranked pass defense (this year's Bears), four that were ranked between sixth and ninth, and three that ranked between 22nd and 26th. The average rank of the eight teams in pass defense DVOA was 13th; that's above-average, but not so much that it completely accounts for the huge dip in his performance versus day games. It could be nothing, but it's at least worth mentioning.

What about the broader Texans team? Was the dramatic loss to the Patriots on the national stage a sure sign that they won't be able to hold their own in the playoffs? For this one, Texans fans, I have better news: While the loss to the Patriots suggests that the Texans are perhaps not quite as good as their record indicates, losing to a playoff team by a significant margin doesn't preclude a team from competing come playoff time.

I went through the past few years and found a number of teams who lost by 21 points or more to a fellow playoff team during the regular season before eventually enjoying postseason success. One team stands out there. In 2011, the New York Giants were blown out by the Saints on Monday Night Football, 49-24. You may remember them winning the Super Bowl. In 2007, those same Giants were handed a whupping on Sunday afternoon by the Packers, 35-13, in a Week 2 game that saw Big Blue booed off (and on) the field by their fans. Not only did that Giants team win the Super Bowl, but they went through the Packers in the NFC Championship Game to do so. The 2008 Cardinals didn't win the Super Bowl, but they responded to a 48-20 manhandling by the Eagles on Thanksgiving night with a 32-25 victory over Philly in the NFC Championship Game. Even the Patriots aren't immune to this. In 2010, they beat the New York Jets, 45-3, at home in Week 13, only to lose to Gang Green, 28-21, on the same field in the divisional playoffs. Obviously, you'd rather see your team of choice beat a fellow playoff team during the regular season, but losing handily to another contender is hardly a death knell.

In Stunningly Unlikely News …

I never thought I'd have to spend time over the final four weeks of the year praising Norv Turner, but after Sunday's 34-24 win by the Chargers in Pittsburgh over the contending Steelers, it's only fair to give Turner some credit. The final score barely reflects what an impressive performance this was by the Chargers; they went up 27-3 in the third quarter on the road and allowed some garbage-time points to make the final score look closer than it actually was. Nobody would've been surprised to see the 4-8 Chargers show up flat and disinterested with nothing to play for, so some of the plaudits for getting them to play hard must go to Turner and his coaching staff.

Even more impressively, the Chargers managed to score 27 points on a perennially excellent defense, one with Troy Polamalu back in the lineup for the second week in a row. (The San Diego defense recovered a fumble for the other seven points.) That would be exceptional if the Chargers were fully healthy themselves, but San Diego limped into Sunday with what must be the worst set of offensive tackles in recent memory protecting Philip Rivers.

On the right side, the Chargers suited up utility lineman Reggie Wells, who was a regular starter for the Cardinals at guard … in 2009. Since then, he has started one game over four years with six different teams, but the Chargers signed him last Wednesday and gave him the start at right tackle four days later. Protecting Philip Rivers's blind side at left tackle? That job fell to practice-squad journeyman Kevin Haslam, who made his first career start in just his second week on the active roster for San Diego. Like Wells, he's also nominally a guard, but the Chargers were left without options on the line because of injuries.

Amazingly, the Chargers were able to make hay and keep Rivers upright, despite having to use the inexperienced tackles. The Steelers were without star pass-rusher LaMarr Woodley, but James Harrison & Co. were able to sack Rivers only once (for zero yards) in 42 dropbacks, which is stunning. Rivers had a middling day, going 21-of-41 for 200 yards, but he did have enough time to throw three touchdown passes and was knocked down on only three other occasions. That's a good day for the league's best offensive line, let alone its worst. For whatever criticisms the Turner era in San Diego will endure over these final few weeks, the embattled Chargers coach got a pair of journeymen linemen ready and kept his quarterback upright in a game in which nobody would've batted an eye if neither of those things had happened. It resulted in a win that just might keep the Steelers out of the AFC playoffs.
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The Passion of Adrian Peterson, or, a Purple Pilgrim's Progress
Posted by: timbersfan, 12:47 AM GMT on December 13, 2012 +0
There's nothing that makes you feel that old F. Scott's curse, that boats-borne-back-ceaselessly-against-the-current, west of the Mississippi, bass-ackward Minnesota Vikings pettiness, than your first trip to Lambeau Field. In some ways, even though there's no place in the world more Midwestern than Green Bay, and it's only five hours away by car from Minneapolis, you feel less significant and more alien here than you do on a trip to Manhattan. This is a place that should remind you of home — in Green Bay, everybody parks their cars on the lawns of little pea green ramblers for 15 bucks cash, exactly like when we park at the Minnesota State Fair — but the football is so much more real here. There are roots here, gridiron history that we just don't have back in Minnesota. You might have a couple vintage Polaroids of your dad's besnowmobilesuited trip to the old Met for a playoff game to see Fran Tarkenton and the Purple People Eaters back in the '70s, but when you're in Green Bay, snowmobilesuits and Bloomington and the '70s all seem like fads, long gone. The Packers have been playing in Green Bay since 1919 — and in the massive Lambeau Field Pro Shop, you can buy any of a variety of bourgie-as-fuck sweatshirts adorned with that date from "The Titletown Collection" by Lands' End. After inspecting enough of these garments, after seeing just how tasteful green and gold really is, you're sufficiently self-conscious about the color purple. It looks stupid. Back out in the atrium, you will notice the little pockets of Vikings fans interspersed throughout and you will begin to see that we're not even inspiring any animosity from these warm, goodhearted people. In fact, most Vikings fans you see are in singles or pairs tagging along in mixed company with other Packers fans, the idiot son or the strange nephew or the dopey boyfriend, trudging along, shoulders hunched over, sheepish, like he wore sweatpants to church and just realized everybody else looks nice.

As long as we're being honest with ourselves, maybe for the first time in our lives, it's not until you get to the ground zero of this so-called "Border Battle" that you realize quite what a little brother you are as a Vikings fan. We lost four Super Bowls in the 70s, but I've never even seen anything but four devastating NFC Championship Game losses in my lifetime. And the Vikings started out this season stronger than expected, but recently, our franchise quarterback, Christian Ponder, has regressed, and at 7-6 we're exactly who we thought we were: on the outside of the playoff picture looking in. But it wasn't until a visit to Lambeau's Packers Hall of Fame that it was brought home exactly how irrelevant, how ephemeral our little franchise is. After gasping at the sight of four Lombardi trophies in solemn glass cases in the sanctum sanctorum, two of them won by Lombardi himself, you walk out of the trophy room and into a room devoted to this season's Packer opponents. Beneath each enemy half-helmet there is a floor-to-ceiling plaque-scroll engraved with the historical results against the Packers. The Bears and the Vikings scrolls are right next to each other. We have three feet of blank space denoting the decades we awaited our first game against the Pack. The Bears have three feet of space where Red Grange and Bronko Nagurski were waging old-timey, double-time highlight-reel battles with Packer legends Johnny "Blood" McNally and Don Hutson. A tall, engraved roll call of tilts featured MDitka and Papa Bear Halas against Jim Taylor and Vince Lombardi, games that justified the epic poetry of John Facenda's baritone Homer. On this side of the Border Battle it's painfully obvious who the Packers consider to be their rival. All that hew and cry back home. Man, wandering around this place, it's embarrassing to think about.

So maybe the western Wisconsin Packers fans we have to deal with in the Twin Cities care about our little 50-year divisional rivalry, but when you see people standing next to the Curly Lambeau statue at the front gate with homemade signs proclaiming "BUCKET LIST ✔: FIRST GAME AT LAMBEAU!!!" you realize that you are at a holy site, this is a pilgrimage for these people. Packers fans coalescing from all corners of a vast diaspora, cheeseheads who have spent their whole lives waiting for one chance to be enfranchised by their heritage. These people have built a Yankee Stadium right here in dairy country. And Vikings fans? We're just another sacrificial lamb — we might as well be the Detroit Lions. Except the Lions have been the Packers' divisional rival since 1933.

I will say that when I was able to choke back the self-loathing by a couple of degrees, when I found the strength to tamp down the ill humor of my crazy jealousy of all this that belongs to them, I was able to appreciate the magic of the Lambeau time warp. There is no major sports stadium atmosphere in the world, maybe save Barcelona's Camp Nou, that feels so small-town, family-friendly, and rooted in noble football tradition while also somehow bizarrely cosmopolitan and open and confident in its place in the world. Granted, it's a lot more straight-up drunk than game night in Barcelona. And I know there are pathetic police reports filed every year here (this year's "man with purple sombrero flees assault scene"), but people could not be more butter-fed or welcoming. Even if you're obviously rooting for the opponent, Packers fans don't seem to really care. The "you just don't get it, do ya, you you silly goose!" Wisconsin twinkle is patronizing, obviously, but you can't help enjoying this. They are the cutest fan base on earth.

We found our seats 50 rows up in the south "Lambeau Leap" end zone (pro tip: Just go on Packers Fan Tours and buy your tickets there — really easy). There doesn't seem to be a bad seat in the place. It wasn't frozen tundra; more clammy 48 degree cold underneath gray skies that held fog for hundreds of miles on the way into town. They pack them in on old-school metal bleachers and it's cozy when you're folded into the full-on Oshkosh phonetic assault: FIRST AND TEN DO IT AGAIN GO PACK GO! The fighter jets had barely creased the sky when Aaron Rodgers had them up seven on a jump ball on which James Jones absolutely clowned one of our cornerbacks. They tacked on three shortly thereafter. But the next couple Packers drives stalled, and in the second quarter Adrian Peterson was starting to work up a lather. All Day is pretty much the Vikings' entire offense at this point, especially with Percy Harvin out, and, well, I guess we have big tight end Kyle Rudolph. Because Christian Ponder found Rudolph in the end zone to cap a long drive, and hey, we have a game in Lambeau. Somehow our defense got A.Rodge off the field on a third-and-short again. Then a handoff to AP on a play between the tackles. He's into the second level untouched. A Packer loses hold of his ankles, a linebacker bounces off of him near the sideline, followed by a defensive back, and now he's FLYING down the right sideline. And he's faster than everybody else on the field. There's more suspense here than there would have been with the old ruthlessly-hit-the-afterburners AP, but because of that torn ACL and his accelerated but very public recovery you're nervous for him, and you see his stride begin to tighten ever so slightly and is that d-back going to catch him? NO! Touchdown! Now we're up 14-10 and it feels like the ghost of Randy Moss just mooned the entire place. It's not silent, but people are definitely nervous. It's shortly before halftime and the Packers fans I drove into town with excuse themselves to get beer. A smirk infects the emotional vectors of my face. Adrian Peterson just spit on the collective hopes and hallowed history of Lambeau Field. He doesn't care about these cute little hobbits and their green-and-gold cheer. Or their progressive ownership structure or the genuflection to community that is the Lambeau Leap.1 You don't care about our civilization, well, we don't care about yours. We are the Norse invaders. We have come to ruin your glorious vibe.

That was an 82-yard touchdown run, the longest in his career. My phone is blowing up. I don't feel alone anymore. Say whatever you want, but All Day belongs on this hallowed ground. Or at least he's good enough to desecrate it. That's what I'm rooting for now. Desecration. Adrian Peterson just clarified that for me.


HANNAH FOSLIEN/GETTY IMAGES
Last year on Christmas Eve, the Adrian Peterson story became interesting again. Of course, that's not how Vikings fans felt at the time — he had just signed a seven-year, $96 million contract earlier in the season and now he was writhing on the Redskins' FedEx field. But even before this dark moment, even after five great seasons, he wasn't being recognized as the best running back in the game anymore. Or maybe just not celebrated. When's the last time you read a story trying to figure out Adrian Peterson? It's not your fault. The Vikings were rebuilding, and football fans and fantasy football people had moved on to the newest shiny, pretty thing, whether that was Maurice Jones-Drew or Arian Foster or Ray Rice. And then, when AP tore his ACL on that Christmas Eve night game against the Redskins, well, it was tragic, but that's the way it goes in the NFL. It's as cruel and as Darwinist as it comes.

I talked to the Vikings' head athletic trainer about that night in D.C.

"Anytime a professional athlete suffers a devastating injury like an ACL, there are so many emotions, but the first emotion is anger and denial," Eric Sugarman says. "And Adrian had both of those."

When Sugarman and Vikings orthopedic surgeon Dr. Joel Boyd came up to the injured player, AP said, "It's my knee."

"He was asking, 'Why?' over and over again," Sugarman says. "Why me? Why me? Why me?" Dr. Boyd administered the Lachman test, a maneuver that assesses the ACL. "You basically grab above and below the knee and it's like pulling a drawer out," Sugarman says. "And usually there's a good endpoint, and it kind of clunks into place. Well, when the ACL's torn, that thing just keeps going and going and you can pull it to the moon." The two men could see that AP's ligament had gone the way of Ralph Kramden's wife. "So you just know right away. This is the face of the franchise and he just tore his ACL. Not to mention it's Christmas Eve."

They carted him to the locker room and got him showered and got ice on his knee. The rest of the game went by. "We come back into the locker room," Sugarman says. "And he's not in denial anymore. He's accepted it. He goes, 'All right, let's attack this thing. What's the next step?'"

Adrian Peterson's father was the only member of AP's family in D.C. that night.

"My phone was blowing up," Nelson Peterson remembers. "Adrian's mother was calling me and every family member was calling me to tell me to go check on him." Nelson remembers what it was like sitting in the locker room with his son. "His mind-set from birth is what I've taught him: no pain," he says. "Just to show you that mind-set: Before that game, he had promised a kid that he would sign his jersey. So unfortunately he wasn't able to do it himself, but he sent a Vikings worker out there to get the jersey and he signed it and sent it back to the kid."

Maybe the NFL has evolved into such a quarterback's league, such a finesse game, that AP's DNA had to find another avenue to impress us. Or maybe his recovery from this injury actually has improved him. Maybe he really is, as his coach says, better than ever (he seems more patient, more willing to use his fullback's help, for instance, while retaining his relentless whirling-dervish-ness). It's not even a year since he tore his ligament, and with 1,600 yards, Peterson is leading the NFL in rushing by more than 300 over the next guy, Marshawn Lynch. In fact, he has a chance to join the small fraternity of 2,000-yard rushers, even a slight chance at breaking Eric Dickerson's all-time single-season rushing record of 2105. In Peterson's mind, this was all ordained through God. Every member of his family believed it would be exactly thus, ever since Nelson Peterson handed AP a ball, set him down in his hometown of Palestine in East Texas, and explained to him who The Tyler Rose is.

Peterson's DNA carried his parents' dreams with it, both fulfilled and otherwise. AP's mother was a three-time Texas All State Sprinter at Westwood High School in Palestine before matriculating as a scholarship sprinter and long jumper at the University of Houston. Nelson was a McDonald's All American out of high school before attending Idaho State. Nelson was granted a tryout with the Philadelphia 76ers, but back at home in Houston before training camp, his brother fumbled with a gun he was cleaning and shot Nelson in the thigh. He would never play basketball again.

"Jesus was the only person to walk this earth perfect," AP tells me when we're discussing fathers and injuries after practice before the first game of the season, back when there were rumors expecting Vikings backup Toby Gerhart to get the majority of the reps opening day against Jacksonville. He's also attempting to explain the contrast between his public persona, a warm, kindhearted humility with a famously granite handshake, and his on-field persona, which seems to be fueled by a molten, seething rage that's being manhandled into a nobler but no less violent purpose. He finishes each of his runs like he's trying to exorcize a spirit. He's fun to watch, but it's hard not to wonder what fuels this fusion of positivity and ferocity.

"I would say that came from a young age," he says. "When I lost my brother."

When a drunk driver hit Adrian's half-brother Brian, Adrian screamed and ran to him. "I ran down there and held my hand under him," he says. "I was calling his name but he wasn't responding. So I ran to my aunt's house, told her what happened. Two days later he passed from brain injuries; they decided to pull the plug." The boys were separated by 11 months — Brian was 8 and Adrian was 7. Adrian's mother, Bonita, says, "Everything they would do, they would do together." And while that usually meant running, "Brian was the speedster of the family."

"My mom cried for a year straight," Peterson says. "So it was up to me to be there and be tough and to be strong for her. To hold my tears."

Bonita still gets emotional when talking about it. "I was a young mom and it was a devastating time for me," she says. "And I know it was only the grace of God that got me through. If the devil would've had his way, I would've been some Sodomite now. But God saw fit for me to overcome that and what happened to my son." She calls Adrian her strength. "It seemed like he grew up a lot quicker than normal," she says. "And that's a lot on a 7-year-old kid. But it seemed like it was motivation for him."

"I could never beat him running or anything," AP says. "I was bigger than him, we had different dads, but athletic-wise I looked up to him. So that's one thing that I wanted to pattern myself by, to be like my brother. I run for him."


PATRICK SMITH/GETTY IMAGES
AP's genetics were apparent in the immediate wake of the injury. He had his surgery moved up from the first week in January to December 30, six days after he tore his ligament on Christmas Eve. Afterwards, Dr. James Andrews, who performed the procedure in Birmingham, Alabama, pulled AP's father aside and told him he had never seen the interior of a knee like that. "It's like a newborn baby," the famous orthopedic surgeon marveled.

Dr. Andrews agreed to talk to me about AP's knee. "He runs good tread on it," he says in that reassuring Louisiana country doctor accent that the most famous athletes in the world pay premium to have available on speed dial. "The big problem that we have in the NFL is that they wear out the patellofemoral joint, where the kneecap glides on the end of the thigh bone. We even start seeing this in college, sometimes even in high school. That articulate cartilage wears early in them. But the inside of AP's patellofemoral joint looks like white glistening marble. When it's worn it looks like a shaggy rug. That's a problem, because when you go to rehab 'em, it propagates further wear and they break down because they already have bad surfaces."

Dr. Andrews begs off credit for his role in the healing process. "I'm only with Adrian for an hour and a half during surgery," he says. "Now, surgery is important, but really three people are responsible for his excellent recovery, or anybody's recovery, and it's not the surgeon. It's the athletic trainer that works with them, that's with them daily; it's the physical therapist that's rehabbing 'em daily. And it's the patient. In AP's case he has Eric Sugarman up in Minnesota and his physical therapist Russ Paine in Houston. Two of the greatest in the world."

In fact, Dr. Andrews says his most important role is that of cheerleader. "Orthopedic patients that are injured have a long turnover," he says. "They don't get well over a couple of days — it's months. So positive attitude is extremely important in their recovery." He even has a ratio of positive to negative thoughts that he sees the most success with. "Five-to-1" he says. "Preferably 10-to-1."

Adrian Peterson's stepfather is a pastor at a Baptist church in East Texas. When AP was growing up, he attended his stepfather's Cedar Branch Missionary Baptist Church in Grapeland, and his concept of negative and positive thinking is firmly rooted in a biblical language of good and evil. "The devil is always at work," AP says. "He's going to shoot those darts no matter what. I feel like a lot of people, they give up when the devil is shooting those thoughts and stuff in their mind. He alters what God has planned for 'em. They're never able to get back on track and refocus on those things. So in that instance, the devil kind of won. So during that time immediately after surgery, when I couldn't ride a bike or squat down, that's when he was really at work with me. You're not going to be back stronger than you were. You're not going to be as fast. You're never going to be the same."

Christianity is intimately woven into football culture, of course, but religion seems like an even more natural partner with recovery from orthopedic surgery. The undeniable advantage of faith-based thinking is that you don't need proof that it's working, and healing from a catastrophic joint injury takes such a long time and your progress isn't readily apparent as you're going through it. Even so, Peterson's faith doesn't seem to be blind: It seems like another muscle Peterson has diligently sculpted over time into a very impressive physique. It's a trusted formula: God has always overcome the devil, adversity has always been followed by redemption. He lost his brother, but eventually his mother stopped crying and expanded the family; his father was incarcerated for laundering crack money,2 but he was released and now he comes to all of Peterson's games whether home or away; Peterson was arrested in a Houston nightclub for disorderly conduct last summer, but this winter the grand jury dropped the charges;3 last December he tore his ACL, but this December he leads the NFL in rushing.

"It dates back to when I lost my brother when I was 7," he says. "Different things that I've been through, different situations that I've been through in my life, praying to God and asking him to give me the strength and the faith and the courage, just whatever it takes to get through the situation. I've learned by applying those principles that things work out for me. So I've just been staying true to it."

That's not to say that his ACL recovery wasn't unique: Every man is tested in mysterious ways. In a patellar tendon autograft surgery, where the middle third of the patient's own patellar tendon is harvested from his own knee, cut into the shape of a ligament, and grafted into the thigh bone and the shin bone of the leg, the zombie ligament has to come back to life. There is usually a weakening before a strengthening. This, of course, can be discouraging to world-class athletes. In order for the new ligament to qualify among the living, according to Dr. Andrews, it needs to "revascularize,"4 which means rebooting the blood flow into the joint from the thigh and shinbones. "Rehab turns on Mother Nature's healing pump," Andrews says. "It stimulates that healing process. So you have to have a certain amount of controlled exercises by good therapists and a good trainer to get the thing to heal properly."

Early in the process, both Sugarman and Payne are literally hands-on, forcing the improvement in range of motion. "It's really hard to get the last 5 degrees of extension and the last 10 or 15 degrees of flexion," Sugarman says. "And you'd be hard pressed to do it on your own. So AP will tell you the most miserable part of rehab was when he would lay on his belly and he'd bend his knee as far as he could and I'd bend it the rest."

And just like any other workout, as his condition improved half of the ongoing battle was psychological and half was physical, and while Peterson was as mentally determined as ever, keeping AP's body interested isn't always as much of a given. "Adrian was a challenge because everything you gave him he was able to attack it and then some," Sugarman says. "I really had to think." Sugarman brought in a Wii Fit, they did parachute and bungee cord sprinting, they worked out in sand pits, on underwater treadmills. "We'd sit in a stool and chase each other around the training room because you have to use your legs and hamstrings to move around on a stool."

AP's progress was more than steady. He went in for surgery a week early because of a remarkable lack of swelling; because he didn't lose much muscle mass, he was jogging at six weeks on the Vikings' underwater treadmill, sprinting at eight weeks, and running on dry land at 10 weeks. Sugarman started agility rehab at about 15 weeks. But it was five months in when he started having breakthroughs.

"We were in the indoor facility and we were rehabbing on the side. He was doing some running. And the team was doing our first offseason program, and they were doing some half-gassers, where they run across the field and back. And he looked at me and said, 'Hey, let me go get two of these with these guys.' And I said, 'Adrian, no, no way.' Because I knew with competition he was going to run harder and faster. And he said, 'Listen, I'm not going to hurt myself. Just let me go get two of these with these guys.' And I said, 'Go ahead, but I'm watching.' And he went over and he blew them away. And everyone looked at each other like, You've gotta be kidding me. How is this possible? And he looked over at me and said, 'Maybe that will give them a little motivation.'"

The running joke in the locker room is for a beat reporter to ask Peterson, "Knee 100 percent yet?" By Week 13, when his right leg still isn't the same size as his left, this is obviously annoying to him, but he's been taking the question since Week 1, when he was answering it earnestly but didn't have much data, and it hasn't dawned on him until now that there's not enough room between the "95 percent" answer he was giving at the end of the preseason and what it's actually feeling like now for a percentage to be in any way helpful to anybody. And while he wants to be honest, he doesn't want his self-diagnosis to sound like an excuse, or maybe even a brag. Even Dr. Andrews is smart enough and humble enough, and maybe even religious enough, to tell me, "I've never said that we could fix something as good as the Good Lord made it."

Peterson will tell you that he started to feel "normal" after Game 3 versus San Francisco. His body took such a beating that his right leg felt more integrated with the rest of him — his entire body finally feeling like it was recovering together. "Looser and stronger," he says about his leg at that point. "And that only comes with wear and tear."

But as Dr. Andrews reminds us, you never quit worrying, especially during this first year back. "Especially at that level," he says, "when it's that accelerated."

"I'm the senior consultant for the Redskins, and when we played the Vikings, I watched him the whole game holding my breath from the other sideline. I would see them tackle him and see what he was doing running through the line and I'd hold my breath. Get up, man. You worry about it. I'm just like his mother watching him play. You OK?"

We're back at Lambeau, and after stress-eating my way through a bratwurst that requires larger, more Favre-size hands than my own, it's the start of the second half. Man, the Packers cheerleaders are rocking some dowdy outfits. No leg at all. But of course the Packers cheerleaders are plain. They're authentic and rooted in history. Like everything else here. Probably being internally obnoxious right now. I asked the season-ticket holder guy in front of me who the most obnoxious visiting fans are. "Used to be you guys about eight years ago, when you were good," he says. "Now it's back to Bears fans. They're the worst."

The Vikings have received the kickoff, and after a nice return they hand it to All Day (his father Nelson gave him that nickname, by the way, when he was a hyperactive toddler). On the first play from scrimmage, AP bounces it out left, breaks a tackle, and is streaking down the left sideline. But two Packers have an angle on him this time, and he's pushed out around the 12. Ponder hands it to him again and he gets a couple. Then on second down, Ponder goes back to throw, is flushed from the pocket, and scrambles across the entire field toward the right sideline. Nobody is open, but he seems locked on one of our big, slow wideouts, in this case Michael Jenkins. Ponder tosses it up Montana-to-Clark style, but the ball is horribly underthrown and it's an easy interception in the end zone for Morgan Burnett, the Packer defensive back that AP punked on the 82-yard touchdown run in the first half. After the game, Burnett is quoted in the recaps saying, "I'd seen it was a pretty spiral, and I made sure I got my paws on it." Such a perfectly smug, Packers d-back thing to say.

Lambeau Field immediately roared to life, and honestly, I know hindsight is 20/20, but that was the game right there. Because we're not that good, certainly not good enough to throw terrible red zone picks in our division rival's storied home stadium. The Packers get a field goal on their next drive. On a following drive, AP pumps his yardage up to 210, the second most yardage accumulated here in Lambeau history — behind the 218 Ahman Green had in a game against Denver in 2003 — but Ponder throws another pretty spiral to Burnett in the red zone at the end of the third quarter. After that pick, Aaron Rodgers leads the home team on an 18-play, 73-yard, 11-minute field goal scoring drive. It was the kind of ball-control drive that used to be the specialty of teams that run the ball, but A.Rodge's West Coast version is even higher-percentage, even more clinically actuarial. It completely taps us out. The Vikings get the ball back with four minutes left down by 9. Without Percy, and maybe even with Percy, Ponder doesn't have a chance. AP never touches the ball again. We don't score a point in the second half. The Packers' dowdy cheerleaders are enrosened by the colder air and the entire crowd sings along to "Roll Out the Barrel" and "Jump Around" while I sit there suffering from my millionth case of of course this was going to happen, infinite Vikings-fan resignation.

I zip my parka over my purple shirt and snake my way down a ramp into the green-and-gold bowels of the stadium. The reality-TV show that is a losing NFL locker room is the only part of the game that doesn't really work on a flat-screen. These guys are ground up, and they are exhausted, and they are depressed, and they don't want to fumble for clichés in front of cameras and microphones. When they let us in, AP is next to Ponder at Ponder's locker, whispering something that seemed to be urgent at him. AP pumps his fist at his quarterback and retreats back into the training room. I float around and overhear half a dozen variations on the same theme: reporter trying to get somebody to say something emotional and raw about Ponder's two picks, and the player signaling that he had his quarterback's back by responding with inane blandishments. In 35 minutes, the locker room starts to clear out, the call goes out that Coach Frazier would be at the podium, and every media member clusters around AP's locker, waiting for him to come out of the showers.

It's a strange moment, when the star player emerges from the shower, refuses to acknowledge the craven horde surrounding his stall of private space, and pulls on his underwear and his pants and his shirt with everybody staring, lying in wait. It feels ancient and modern all at the same time. Everybody is watching this guy carefully cover the most impressive physique outside of Jack Kirby, and nobody does anything but act like this is completely fine. I know, he's a dude, not Secretariat. It's weird. He's impressive. Everybody's discreetly impressed, right?

Finally dressed, AP turns around and answers the same questions everybody else got, except this time with a, you know, "How does it feel to rush for 210 and lose?" angle. He handles everything perfectly. Better than perfectly. So perfectly that his answers seem progressively absurd when you think about it. Yeah, I probably should've made that one nice little gain into a 94-yard touchdown run. He's not putting lipstick on a pig, he's trying to remove lipstick from the most beautiful woman in the world.

"Rushing yards means nothing when you get an L," he says. "Hard pill to swallow but there are two ways to look at it: negative or positive. I always choose to look at it positive.

"I think back on the turnover," he says. "When we went three-and-out. The first play was a 32 lead, and if I'm just a second more patient I'll take that to the crib. That's a 94-yard run. I look back on that and that could've changed the game."

I think about that old Catholic Vince Lombardi and his infallible pursuit of the perfectly executed power sweep. Even though we're in the visitors, I think Coach Lombardi would've appreciated this, the star running back at his locker after a game in which he ran for 210 yards on a zombie knee, still obsessing over yards left on the field, taking personal responsibility for the team's failure to get a win. Maybe that's the essence behind AP's reluctance to label his right knee "100 percent": In a world full of sin, nothing is ever 100 percent.

"I think about the 48-yarder," he says. "I could've taken that to the left side. There's a lot of different ways you can look at it. Sometimes when it happens at the end, you throw an interception, the finger gets pointed at you. It hurts."
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The Professional
Posted by: timbersfan, 12:47 AM GMT on December 13, 2012 +0
Larry Brown walked down the aisle of the bus transporting his Pistons, looking even more solemn than usual. Hours earlier, Detroit led Game 2 of the 2004 NBA Finals by three points with 10.9 seconds remaining. Brown instructed his team to foul, but the veterans in the huddle — Rasheed Wallace, Ben Wallace, Richard Hamilton, and Chauncey Billups — resisted his order. Brown relented, but only on the condition that should Shaquille O'Neal catch the ball, they foul him immediately. O'Neal did receive the ball on the ensuing possession, but he quickly passed to Luke Walton, who found Kobe Bryant for an acrobatic 3-pointer that sent Staples Center into a frenzy. The Lakers prevailed easily in overtime, evening the series and leaving the Pistons reeling. "We're crushed," Brown told reporters after the game. "We had a winnable game. And everybody in that locker room's down."

These were the Lakers, a dream team recalibrated: Bryant and O'Neal in their primes, Gary Payton and Karl Malone in the twilight of their careers, heavy favorites to win the franchise's fourth title in five years. With the series headed back to Detroit for three games, the Pistons had just handed them a second life. Brown sauntered to the back of the bus and thought about apologizing to his team, knowing he should have been more adamant about the foul.

"I remember in Philly … " Brown started.

Ben Wallace cut him off: "This ain't Philly."

Brown kept going, his voice rising. Chauncey Billups listened until he'd heard enough.

"Go back to the front of the bus," Billups told his coach. "We're not coming back to L.A."

Billups was right. The Pistons dominated the next three games and he snared the Finals MVP trophy, completing a seven-year odyssey that veered from lottery pick to draft bust to role player before finally settling at Mr. Big Shot. For one of the league's most respected teammates and leaders, it was certainly a strange way to launch his career — he's made eight stops in all, with the Clippers looking like the last one. Fifteen years ago, Billups won his first professional game by beating Jordan's Bulls; now, he's hoping to beat LeBron's Heat, Kobe's Lakers, and Carmelo's Knicks for a second title. Like always, he'll be filling a role — this time, the knowing veteran and calming influence, the guy who's been there before.

"The best damn coach the Clippers can have is Chauncey," said Butch Carter, who coached a young Billups in Toronto.

At every stop, there was a lesson for Billups. He's been traded five times and amnestied once. He's played for everyone from George Karl to Mike D'Antoni to Rick Pitino, and he's played with everyone from Kevin Garnett to Carmelo Anthony to Lloyd Daniels. He's also been in every conceivable situation, and over everything else, that's what makes the 36-year-old Billups so valuable. He can relate to almost every NBA player because he has been almost every player.

"I always believed that to become a great leader, you have to be a great follower," Billups said. These days, the Clippers follow him.

Today is Lottery Sunday, perhaps the most important event in Boston Celtic history since Red Auerbach drafted Larry Bird 19 years ago," Dan Shaughnessy wrote for the Boston Globe on May 18, 1997.

Boston entered that lottery with unrestrained, unfulfilled, and unrealistic optimism. The organization had just undergone a massive face-lift after a disastrous 15-win season, luring an in-demand Rick Pitino from Kentucky with a whopping $50 million offer. Larry Bird announced his departure from the organization and his acceptance of the Indiana Pacers coaching job the same day the Celtics introduced Pitino. The legendary Red Auerbach relinquished his team presidency to Pitino.1 Blessed with two high picks and a 27.5 percent chance to land the no. 1 choice, the Celtics somehow ended up with the no. 3 and no. 6 picks, missing out on can't-miss star Tim Duncan and even Keith Van Horn.2 Labeling the lottery disappointing is "the understatement of the century," Pitino says now. "It's what I banked on taking the job."

The Celtics audibled quickly, deciding to revamp their backcourt with Billups (the third pick) and silky scorer Ron Mercer (the sixth pick, as well as Pitino's former protégé at Kentucky). Pitino's new general manager, Chris Wallace, remembered watching Colorado's Billups notch 29 points and 10 rebounds against Texas Tech earlier that year. Billups scored the game's winning basket,3 and he left a lasting impression on Wallace. "When we brought him in for a workout, [we realized] that in addition to his talent, there is also character, there is work ethic, there was substance to this guy," Wallace said.


FRANK O'BRIEN/THE BOSTON GLOBE/GETTY IMAGES
Only a handful of players returned to Boston from the previous season, as the team renounced the rights to nine players4 to splurge on free agents Travis Knight, Chris Mills, and Tyus Edney. Pitino couldn't even make it through the preseason before swinging his first deal, sending Mills to New York for three younger players, then explaining that he wanted his team to play fast and smart. He tabbed Billups as the franchise's guard of the future and promised that his team would unleash his signature full-court press.

"Playing for a guy like Pitino, he always has you under a whole lot of pressure to play fast, a crazy style of play for the pros," Billups said. "That didn't help. That didn't give me a chance to really slow down and listen to myself, listen to the game and what's going on. I never really had that chance. It was a recipe for disaster there."

They both found themselves in pressure situations, with expectations high because of their pedigrees and college success. The shot clock, now 11 seconds shorter than in college, proved a burden for Billups. NBA point guards need to make heady decisions. Pitino wanted him to play at a breakneck pace when Billups was still figuring out who he was. "I wasn't the best player on the court," he said. "I wasn't the biggest at my position or strongest. I went from high school to college and I was able to dominate as a freshman. Going into the NBA, I go to the bottom of the totem pole. It was the first time it had ever been like that."

Billups arrived in the NBA just before a new era of point guards emerged and revolutionized the position. He was a scoring point guard before scoring point guards became fashionable. Two Celtics legends, Bob Cousy and Tommy Heinsohn, often argued on television over whether Billups should play point or shooting guard. Billups could shoot and bully his way to the basket past smaller, weaker guards, which made Cousy believe he should play off-guard. Heinsohn saw him as a point and preached patience with Pitino. "It was really funny to listen to two legends talk about that," Pitino said. "Tommy, wholeheartedly, thought the young man was a 1. He was on the money."

"I thought someday he was going to be an outstanding basketball player," Pitino added.

Just not then. Billups never knew when to pass or shoot. Edney remembers he and Billups formed a pseudo-support system for one another, routinely dismayed over their play and disheartened at being the source of their coach's angst. "At times, you would be like, 'I don't even know how to play this game,'" Edney said. "That was a real feeling sometimes." Billups told Boston assistant Jim O'Brien that the morning shootarounds were wearing him down. "The whole transition was a challenge," O'Brien said.

The team's patience ran thin quickly. At the trade deadline, just 51 games into his pro career, Boston traded Billups in a multi-player deal to acquire veteran All-Star Kenny Anderson. Pitino said afterward that he loved Billups but couldn't pass up the chance to grab a true point guard. Pitino was making the biggest mistake you can make in the NBA — instead of going through growing pains and building something substantial, he wanted to fast-forward the process. Billups missed playing with another future Finals MVP — Paul Pierce,5 Boston's 1998 lottery pick — by a scant four months.

"I had finally started to play well," Billups remembered. "The fans had started to embrace me and took me in. The team was all right, up and down. But I was finally starting to make my way and boom, the last day of the trading deadline, I get traded."

Richard Pitino,6 Rick's son, 15 at the time, refused to speak to his father for two weeks after the deal. Billups had been his favorite player. "We were struggling at the time and we needed it 'now,'" Pitino said. "Probably, that was a mistake. We should have taken our lumps and stayed with him."

"He wasn't really traded because of any great sense of disappointment about him or concern about his future," Chris Wallace said. "It was the price of doing business. Moving him enabled other things to occur."

Walter McCarty7 played under Pitino at Kentucky and in Boston before becoming his assistant in Louisville. He chalks up the miserable results to unrealistic expectations and clashing personalities. Other young players, including Antoine Walker and Mercer, routinely dominated the ball in Pitino's system.8 "All of us have egos and we have to find a way to manage those egos as coaches and players," McCarty said. "At that particular time, I don't think anybody did a good job of doing that, whether it was players or coaches."

This began a nomadic period for Billups, who bounced around the league without a position and, therefore, without an identity. He spent only a few months in Toronto before they rerouted him to Denver, with Billups narrowly missing out on playing with Tracy McGrady and Vince Carter. "He didn't have that leadership from a veteran player, so he didn't have that confidence," Butch Carter said. Denver went just as poorly. "We got him as a 2," then-Nuggets coach Mike D'Antoni remembers. "[His true position] was definitely the question mark without a doubt." In Orlando, Billups's bum shoulder prevented him from playing a single minute. By 2000, Duncan and McGrady had become the signature players from a disappointing 1997 draft. Keith Van Horn was fine — nothing great, but fine. Nobody else mattered, and in Billups's case, people were already calling him a bust. For the first time in his basketball life, Chauncey Billups was concerned that he wouldn't make it.


RICK CALLAHAN
What does it mean exactly to "make it"? Growing up in Denver's Park Hill, Billups was always a natural leader. Everyone called him "Smooth." His youth instructors — Harry Hollines, Horace Kearney, and Rick Callahan, who formed the University of Denver's backcourt in the mid 1960s — never had to give him the same directive twice. When one of his childhood friends, Mike Robinson, drifted toward crime and away from the basketball court, Billups threatened to quit the team if Callahan wouldn't reinstate him. "He was probably concerned with that more than anything else at the time," Callahan recalled.

Did Billups make it by putting Colorado high school basketball on the map? The state had featured players like Joe Barry Carroll and Micheal Ray Richardson, but never someone as impactful as Billups. He started varsity as a freshman, forcing a rising senior to transfer schools rather than compete for playing time with Billups. "He was a legend [in eighth grade] and everybody knew it," said Ed Calloway Jr., George Washington High School's coach.

The problem with "making it" is the ceiling keeps rising. Just two years after departing the University of Colorado, Billups banked his first million dollars. But he wasn't playing and he wasn't happy. What happens when you're not the best anymore?

"Chauncey is a star in high school, goes a mile and a half from home for college, and then he's thrown into the fire with Rick Pitino?" said Carter. "Say what you want; that just wasn't going to work."

During those trying times, Billups often talked with Hollines, who'd been drafted by the Suns in the '60s. He told Billups that he didn't have to be another Michael Jordan. He'd already made it. His job was to feed his family and stay in the league as long as possible. Billups wanted more than that. For once, fate intervened — the Minnesota Timberwolves offered Billups a two-year contract, inadvertently putting him in the perfect situation. They didn't need him to lead the team; they already had Terrell Brandon. They didn't need him to be their biggest star; they already had his old pal Kevin Garnett.9 For the first time, someone was asking Billups to be Billups. Play your game, do your thing.

"People had this negative perception of him as a basketball player," Timberwolves teammate Sam Mitchell said. "Because he came in and scored, they thought he was being selfish, which was the furthest thing from the truth. As I got to meet Chauncey, what I realized is people put labels on people that really stick. Well, how do you get those labels off? It's harder to get rid of a label than it is to gain one."

Brandon could relate to Billups. He apprenticed under Mark Price as a young point guard in Cleveland. Price didn't hesitate to teach Brandon everything he knew about the game, with Brandon quickly developing into a deft passer — by 1997, Sports Illustrated had labeled him the league's best point guard. In Billups, Brandon saw a family man and a younger version of himself — someone who could play and learn. "Once he got to Minnesota," Brandon remembers, "he saw that we were all secure with ourselves, no pressure, and he didn't have to come in and run the program. I had his back and I was going to show him how to do it because I knew he was next."

Brandon asked Billups to move his locker next to his. Billups quizzed Brandon about the mid-range game and confessed his troubles with decision-making. They stayed after practice and called one another at night while scouting opponents. "I had come from the school of 'Once your time is over, you have to know when it's time to move on,'" Brandon said. "Veterans shouldn't think that because it's not me anymore that you're not going to help a young player learn the game. If you're caught up in that and you've got nine, 10 years in the league, you should take a step back."

Billups also benefited from working with Mitchell, a veteran forward headed for a coaching career. Billups's reputation as a scorer — and not a point guard — trailed him to Minnesota. "Do you know how hard it is for players to look themselves in the mirror and say, 'It's me and not everybody else' and start changing?" Mitchell asked. "It's a difficult thing to do. And then when people are calling you a bust and you're the third pick of the draft? And to deal with those labels and to overcome them? It don't happen."

It did for Billups. "The thing that saved me was being honest with myself and saying it's not the coach's fault or the team's fault that I'm not playing," Billups said. "I'm just not ready and I have to look in the mirror and ask myself, 'All right, what do I have to do?'"

Billups continued playing both guard positions, slowly evolving into a valuable backup. When Brandon sustained a serious knee injury during the 2001-02 season, Billups's chance had finally arrived. Flip Saunders joked that he could become another Tom Brady — from the bench to a championship in months — only Billups wasn't kidding around. He helped the Timberwolves win 50 games before they were swept by Dallas in Round 1 of the playoffs, with Billups averaging 22 points per game in the series. It took four stops, five coaches, and five years, but Billups had finally established himself as a legitimate NBA starter.

"He actually calmed down in those situations where there was more pressure," Saunders said. "That's a very unique skill to have."

For once, Billups had perfect timing — he was hitting free agency again, only with the leverage of being an up-and-coming star with a strong pedigree.10 Billups visited Pistons general manager Joe Dumars's home, and the pair discussed his erratic past. "I'm sure it was somewhat cathartic to him, to sit there and rehash everything that had happened," Dumars said. "My basic response to him was now that I've heard all the obstacles that you've had in the past, my job is to ensure that you have none of those obstacles here in Detroit. So it was good for him, but it was also good for me to hear because I wanted to know what he felt impeded him from becoming the player he could become."

Billups signed a six-year, $35 million contract with Detroit, but not before agonizing about moving again, as well as leaving behind his buddies Brandon and Garnett. Midway through his first season, Dumars noticed something wrong: Even after being blessed with the security of that contract, Billups still looked over his shoulder.

"What are you looking around for?" Dumars recalled telling him. "You're looking like we're going to trade you or bench you. Not happening. You're the guy. We're committed to you. Quit looking over your shoulder. You're going to lead this team."

Billups thanked him and never looked back. He averaged 16.2 points, shot 39 percent from 3, and led the underdog Pistons to the playoffs, beating McGrady's Magic squad and Allen Iverson's Sixers before New Jersey swept them in the Eastern Conference finals. "It was the first time anyone had ever given him the ball and said, 'This is your team. We believe in you,'" said Rick Carlisle, Billups's first coach in Detroit. "He took the ball and ran with it."

Larry Brown replaced Carlisle the following season, bringing with him a reputation for driving his point guards hard. He wanted them to be an extension of himself on the court. Some could take it. Some couldn't. Early in his Detroit tenure, he summoned Richard Hamilton and Billups into his office and asked them to sacrifice their shots and get others more involved. Billups left disgruntled but not defiant.

"I never had another discussion with either one about that," Brown said. "Chauncey looked at me straight in the eye, made sacrifices for the team every single day. You look at the success that team had and that was a direct result of him buying in."

Those Pistons were competing for a title in a league perennially dominated by superstars — the previous 25 NBA titles had been won by teams led by Hall of Famers Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Larry Bird, Magic Johnson, Moses Malone, Isiah Thomas, Michael Jordan, and Hakeem Olajuwon, and future Hall of Famers Tim Duncan, Shaquille O'Neal, and Kobe Bryant. The 2004 Pistons had stars, but no superstars. They were equals. They argued like brothers would. "If you heard us on the basketball court," Hamilton explained, "you would think we didn't like each other. We were blunt with each other. That was the only way we knew how to communicate in the heat of the moment."

In basketball, chemistry is both the most overrated and underrated aspect of the game. How a multimillionaire feels about another multimillionaire shouldn't affect his ability to put a ball into a basket or defend it. But watch certain contenders that have played together for long enough, like Billups's Pistons or Duncan's Spurs, and you'll see something palpable. Rhythm. Poise. Awareness. Trust. And it starts off the court. "We all know, as far as guys who have won in this league, you build relationships off the floor and they become better when you're on the floor," Tayshaun Prince11 said. "Chauncey was always the guy. We hung out together, ate dinner and things like that, and we built that friendship. Once we got on the court everything was just connected from there."


ANDREW D. BERNSTEIN/NBAE/GETTY IMAGES
Brown bristles at the notion that the 2004 Pistons were devoid of superstars, saying, "I hate this thing about guys teaming up. I don't think Michael or Magic or Larry Bird or any of those guys, it would even enter their minds. They would have all felt the responsibility to do it themselves. They were good enough to make other guys better. I always take offense when people tell me we didn't have any superstars. They equate that to only one end of the court in my mind. Rasheed Wallace, Ben Wallace, all in my mind, Rip, Chauncey, Tayshaun, they were stars to me. They did whatever it took to help us win."

After Brown's rebuffed trip down the aisle of that bus in 2004, the Pistons beat the Lakers, claiming the franchise's first title since the Bad Boys of the late '80s. Billups averaged 21 points, five assists, and one angry telling-off of a Hall of Fame coach. "That was really big for me," Billups remembered. "From what I had been through in my career and all the people who said I couldn't make it and wouldn't be a top player. All the questions. All the doubters, all the things I've been through and to do that and climb that mountain was a validation for me. It was what I always thought I could do and the player I always thought I could be."

It may be a long time — if ever — before we see another "superstar-free" championship in this era of free-agent alignment. "We thought we were the best five alive," Rasheed Wallace said. "We felt like we could take on any five in any era of the NBA. That's how close-knit, that's how together we were … I'm not comparing one team to another, but I know we kicked a lot of ass for a long time."


I'm not comparing one team to another, but I know we kicked a lot of ass for a long time.

— Rasheed Wallace on the 2004 Pistons
Dumars won't venture that far: "We understood it was not the typical way to build a championship roster. To be able to duplicate it, there's no way I can sit here and tell you it's easy or we'll see it again. I don't know if we'll ever see it again."

Prince agreed, pointing to superstars playing together as the biggest reason why it might not happen: "Once a couple start doing it, then it continues to grow from there. It might happen one day. It might take a while. But I think in the near future, it's not going to happen, just from the fact that all these talented guys are starting to get together and trying to win a championship that way. You can't blame them, because everybody wants to win and have the best chance at winning. But the way we did it, I don't think you'll see that for a while."

Billups blossomed over the next few years, making five straight All-Star teams, hitting countless timely shots and earning himself the imaginative nickname "Mr. Big Shot." Another championship would have cemented Billups's case as the Walt Frazier of his generation — an elite defender and leader with a knack for coming through in big moments — only the Pistons suffered agonizing losses to the 2005 Spurs (Game 7 of the Finals) and 2007 Cavs (when LeBron James caught fire and shot them out of the Eastern finals). Billups assumed their 2004 title guaranteed that he'd finish his career in Detroit, never expecting Dumars to make a massive mistake — dealing Billups home to Denver for Allen Iverson at the beginning of the 2008-09 season. Denver needed a steadying influence to corral an eccentric roster with younger stars like Carmelo Anthony and J.R. Smith. Detroit needed to start rebuilding, rolling the dice on one more playoff run with Iverson (who memorably bombed) before rebooting with loads of cap space in the summer of 2009.12 Billups did as Billups does — he brought the Nuggets to their first conference finals since 1985, coming within two wins of the Finals before Kobe's Lakers pulled away. For Billups, it was his seventh straight conference finals appearance. The Pistons? They haven't won a playoff series since Billups left.

"I think, in hindsight, everybody knows that it was one of the worst things that could ever happen to them, getting rid of Chauncey, not only because of his ability to play, but also his leadership on that team," Saunders said.

Dumars remembered trading Billups as "the hardest and toughest thing I've ever had to do in this position," adding, "It's a guy that I have looked at as a little brother and a guy that I've got deep, deep affection for, a guy that I still talk to. And I'll leave it at that."

Nobody wanted Chauncey Billups," Sam Mitchell said. "And I laugh now. All these teams praise him. All these teams had a chance to have him. And look at the teams that had him. They didn't know what to do with him and they shooed him out the door. It's funny how the NBA is. But as soon as the lights come on and you start playing well, everybody wants you."

We end there, right? The player with the up-and-down career arc, finally standing atop the mountain, returns triumphantly home to Denver with his family and friends, and maybe even a bust in Springfield, Massachusetts?

Not quite.

"How did the NBA get to be such a nasty business?" Mark Kiszla wrote in the Denver Post on February 22, 2011. "In order for the Nuggets to stop being held hostage by disgruntled forward Carmelo Anthony, they had to sacrifice hometown hero Chauncey Billups in a blockbuster trade with the New York Knicks. There is relief in Denver, but no joy."

Once again, Billups found himself a spare part in yet another trade — this one, one of the biggest of the last few years. Nuggets president Josh Kroenke apologized to Billups and his family when he announced the trade, calling it the hardest aspect of the deal. And Denver fans lambasted Anthony online and on talk radio shows, blaming his selfishness for ruining a potential contender and costing them their hometown favorite. Billups doesn't blame him, saying that Anthony "was under so much stress and pressure that I wasn't disappointed with how he handled it. I just think he didn't know how to handle it. He listened to whoever he listened to and they planned it out, but I think that in hindsight, I'm pretty sure he would tell you he wishes he would have handled it a little differently.

"But he got what he wanted," Billups added. "He wanted to go to the Knicks. Denver let him get what he wanted. I'm sure for him, it's a success."

Billups and D'Antoni were reunited again, this time on much better footing. New Yorkers serenaded Billups in his first game as he clinched a victory over Milwaukee at the free throw line. Unfortunately, he injured his knee in their first playoff game and sat out the rest of Boston's sweep of the Knicks. "I really believe if I was healthy the whole time, we would have made a nice run," Billups said. "I thought we had a good chance to be pretty good with me in there."

That summer, New York amnestied the final year of Billups's contract to free up enough cap space to sign Tyson Chandler. In a rare moment, Billups's frustration boiled over — he warned other teams not to claim him during the amnesty process and told Yahoo Sports, "I'm tired of being viewed as the good guy. After a while, you just kind of get taken advantage of in these situations."

These days, he's a little more diplomatic: "They put the rule in; they were going to use it. But I just wanted to be in the driver's seat for my own self and not be some dangling meat out there for whoever takes the biggest swing."


GARRETT W. ELLWOOD/NBAE/GETTY IMAGES
Billups relented when he joined the new-culture Clippers, realizing quickly that it was the perfect place for him to lead. Terrell Brandon watched the Clippers and noticed Billups and Chris Paul talking on the bench the same way Brandon and Billups had chatted once upon a time, thinking that everything had come full circle for his old friend. But that's when misfortune struck again — Billups tore his Achilles during a game against Orlando, knocking him out for the season and leading many to think he might retire.

"He was very determined," Clippers coach Vinny Del Negro13 said. "I give him a lot of credit. From a therapy standpoint, from a workout standpoint, he never missed a therapy session. He stayed in good condition with his weight. That's just his personality. He wants to prove to everybody that he can come back and play at a high level."

When the Clippers were struggling last March, the veterans pushed for an injured Billups to travel and sit on the bench with the team for road games. Within a few weeks, you could see Billups mentoring various players, talking to them during timeouts and looking like a de facto associate coach. Nobody was surprised when he re-signed with the Clippers last summer, finally returning to playing action on November 28 and quickly getting thrown into some big crunch-time spots. We're seeing pieces from previous stops in Billups's final one: Minnesota (he's playing both guard spots), Detroit (he's being counted on for big shots), Denver (he's the leader of an eclectic team), and even Boston (the expectations for the Clippers might be a little too high). Fifteen years into his NBA journey, he's angling for one more title.

After that? Who knows? Billups doesn't know when he might retire, but nearly all of his former coaches — Saunders, Carter, and Brown among them — said it would be a seamless transition for Billups to move down the bench. Others wonder if Billups could take over an NBA front office like Dumars did, or maybe even take over the National Basketball Players Association for Billy Hunter someday.

"I never really wanted to coach in the NBA," Billups said. "If I coach, I want to coach players that are trying to get somewhere: high school, college. Some of the guys in the NBA, once they make it here, they're like, 'I'm here now. I'm good. I did what I needed to do. I don't need to listen.'"

The thought of dealing with those simply satisfied with "making it" turns him off, if only because that mind-set would have killed his career years ago. You can't teach other people how to care if they don't want to care. But if you care for the right people? That's a little different. For instance, when his old friend Mike Robinson was convicted on organized crime charges and sentenced to 25 years in prison in 1994, Billups sent Robinson money for commissary and took his phone calls even as he dashed to playoff games. He spoke on Robinson's behalf when he became eligible for parole. He helped Robinson become a master fitness trainer while he was incarcerated, pledging that he'd help Robinson gain employment. Four years ago, Robinson was released after serving 14 years of his sentence. He now trains Billups every offseason.

"Chauncey's not the type of person to gloat or speak about what he does," Robinson said. "He lets his actions speak for himself."

So who knows what will happen to Chauncey Billups? We only know what we see right now — another contender, another key leadership role, a 15th NBA season for the guy who was nearly forgotten after three. Only three 1997 draft picks are still playing in the NBA: Duncan, Billups, and Stephen Jackson. Two of them are leaders; the other one needs to be led. And that's the thing: A leader isn't born or built. It's always a little bit of both. Chauncey Billups would never tell you that. But he'll show you.
  Permalink | A A A
kobe
Posted by: timbersfan, 6:13 AM GMT on December 08, 2012 +0
I

spent five hours with Bill Russell last week and thought of Kobe Bryant twice and only twice. One time, we were discussing a revelation from Russell's extraordinary biography, Second Wind, that Russell scouted the Celtics after joining them in 1956. Why would you scout your own teammates? What does that even mean? Russell wanted to play to their strengths and cover their weaknesses, which you can't do without figuring out exactly what those strengths and weaknesses were. So he studied them. He studied them during practices, shooting drills, scrimmages, even those rare moments when Red Auerbach rested him during games. He built a mental filing cabinet that stored everything they could and couldn't do, then determined how to boost them accordingly. It was HIS job to make THEM better. That's what he believed.

So when Russell mentioned a current star devouring his book and stealing that specific concept — then thanking Russell for the help — naturally, I expected the player to be LeBron James, Chris Paul, Steve Nash, maybe even Kevin Durant. Nope.

Kobe Bryant.

"Really?" I said incredulously.

And that's how I learned that basketball's greatest teammate ever held something of a soft spot for Kobe, someone who's battled more coworkers over the years than Chevy Chase. Russell enjoys his competitiveness, loves his work ethic, appreciates his respect for history, and over anything else, loves how he borrowed that scouting idea. No other player ever mentioned it to him. Just Kobe. Which didn't make sense to me. After all, Kobe regards his teammates the same way President Obama regards the Secret Service — these guys are here to serve and protect ME. Why would he need to scout them? What was I missing?

(Hold that thought. Please.)

Later in the day, we were discussing leadership and Russell revealed that he never criticized a teammate publicly or privately. Not once. Not during his entire 13-year career. What was the point? Everyone already knew Russell was their best player — why undermine their confidence by making them doubt themselves, or even worse, making them wonder if he believed in them? How was that productive? Russell believed, and still believes, that a basketball team only achieves its potential if everyone embraces their roles — you figure out what you have, split the responsibilities and you're off. The less thinking, the better. Early in their playing partnership, Russell asked Bob Cousy to find a specific spot every time an opponent attempted a shot — about 25 feet away from the basket, on the left or right side — so Russell could snare the rebound, whirl around and throw Cousy an outlet pass in one motion. After a few months, they didn't even think about it anymore. Shot, spot, rebound, release, go. In time, Tommy Heinsohn took off right before Russell grabbed that rebound, as did everyone else wearing white-and-green, and suddenly, the greatest fast break in basketball history was off and running.

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REDSKINS (-2.5) over Ravens Chiefs (+6.5) over BROWNS STEELERS (-8) over Chargers Titans (+5.5) over COLTS Jets (-3) over JAGUARS Bears (-3) over VIKINGS PANTHERS (+3.5) over Falcons BUCS (-7.5) over Eagles Rams (+3) over BILLS BENGALS (-3) over Cowboys Dolphins (+10) over 49ERS Saints (+4.5) over GIANTS SEAHAWKS (-10) over Cardinals Lions (+6.5) over PACKERS PATRIOTS (-3.5) over Texans

This Week: 1-0 Last Week: 7-9 Season: 99-89-4

But that would have failed unless everyone embraced their role, and that's the thing — everyone has to have a role. In Boston, Cousy ran the break, Heinsohn ran the lane and crashed the boards, Bill Sharman, Sam Jones and (later) John Havlicek handled the scoring, K.C. Jones and Satch Sanders handled the perimeter defense, and Russell handled everything else. So it was the "everything else" that varied from season to season, or even month to month — Russell assessed what his team needed and tailored his game accordingly. That's what made him Bill Russell.

OK, so how do you challenge your teammates without undermining them? Russell's book covers one example with an enlightening section on Sam Jones, one of the league's first great scoring guards but someone who feared the responsibility of being great every night. Sam couldn't handle the pressure; the burden was too big, like having the same term paper hanging over your head 100 times per year. That drove Russell crazy. Eventually, he learned to accept that they just weren't wired the same way. Sam didn't puke before every big game. He didn't measure his happiness by the success or failure of his basketball team. But he also happened to be a phenomenally gifted offensive player, someone who loved taking and making pressure shots. Sam's laconic demeanor worked against him being a legendary player, but for big moments? It was perfect. You could always go to Sam when it mattered. More often than not, Sam came through.

In the wrong hands, Sam's career might have gone a little differently. Russell always understood that Sam was Sam — he wasn't going to bleed basketball like Jerry West did, and he would never obsess over every play of every quarter like Oscar Robertson did. You are who you are. Bill Russell left Sam Jones alone.

So that was one example. Russell told the other story in Seattle last week, after I asked him how the aging Celtics won their last two titles without a real point guard. They didn't run the triangle offense like MJ's Bulls or Shaq's Lakers … so how? Russell joked about "making" Larry Siegfried play point guard after K.C. Jones (Cousy's successor) retired, then explained how it happened. Russell became Boston's player/coach before the 1966-67 season, which ended unhappily after Wilt's Sixers demolished the (seemingly) aging Celtics in the Eastern Conference finals. During Game 5, Philly's crowd chanted "BOSTON IS DEAD! BOSTON IS DEAD!" Russell heard that chant ringing in his ears all summer. After winning eight straight titles, he wasn't ready to be buried as a basketball player yet. He also wasn't ready to blow up his team. So he asked Siegfried to replace K.C. Jones. Russell wasn't asking for a Cousy impression, just someone to dribble from Point A to Point B, call plays and start their offense. That's it.

Siegfried resisted. He wasn't a point guard. He didn't want the added responsibility, nor did he want to chase faster players around. Russell gently insisted. No, thanks, Larry Siegfried said. They had reached something of a stalemate. The modern solution would be dealing Siegfried away, but the Celtics never traded back then — they believed continuity was their single biggest advantage other than Russell. During Russell's entire playing career, the Celtics only swung one real trade in 13 years: Mel Counts for Bailey Howell. Amazing and true.

So Russell kept cajoling Siegfried, never threatening him, just appealing to him as a friend. Russell wore him down. Siegfried relented. After a few weeks, Siegfred decided that he didn't want to play point anymore. They did the same dance again. And Russell wore him down again, this time by making it clear this was Siegfried's best chance to play. He didn't threaten him or anything, just laid out the landscape. We have me, Havlicek, Sam and Bailey (Howell). All four of us need to play. This is your best way to get minutes, Larry. He kept appealing to him as a friend more than anything. You can guess what happened next. And yes, the Celtics won their last two titles of the Russell era with a shooting guard bringing up the ball. So much for Boston being dead.

As Russell was telling the Siegfried story, I couldn't help but wonder how Kobe would have handled that situation. Would he have cussed him out? Bullied him? Called him out to a reporter? Pushed behind the scenes for the Lakers to dump him? And how would an obviously stubborn guy like Siegfried have handled Kobe's reaction? My guess: Siegfried would have pushed back … and if he pushed back, he probably wouldn't have been a Laker for too long. Let's at least agree that Kobe wouldn't have handled things like Bill Russell did.

Then again, nobody handled things like Bill Russell did.

Then again, if we're really comparing Kobe to the greatest players who ever lived — something that seems to be happening more and more lately — you can't just rattle off his résumé (30,000 points, five titles, 10 first-team All-NBAs, one MVP, two Finals MVPs, etc.) without mentioning the other stuff. Of the 14 greatest players of all time, only Wilt and Kobe needed 10,000-word footnotes to cover "the other stuff." That list currently looks like this: Jordan, then Russell, then Kareem, then Magic/Bird, then Wilt, then Kobe/Duncan (or Duncan/Kobe), then West/Oscar, then Hakeem/Shaq/Moses. With LeBron lurking in there somewhere. We just don't know where yet.

You would have loved playing with nine of those guys. The other five? Maybe, maybe not. Wilt was historically selfish, someone who genuinely believed that the best situation for Wilt doubled as the best situation for Wilt's team (as none other than Jerry West once noted). 1 Nobody was moodier or more aloof than Kareem, a brilliant recluse who couldn't connect with anyone until Magic and Riley came along. Nobody was more demanding than Oscar, the league's smartest player other than Russell, but someone who treated his teammates like he was an overbearing parent — belittled them for mistakes and left them walking on eggshells. Of course, Oscar was a picnic compared to Jordan, who evolved into a withering, homicidally competitive bully; if you couldn't handle it, you needed to find another team. And Kobe tried to evolve into a withering, homicidally competitive bully, if only because his idol acted that way once upon a time. Eventually, that's what he became. For better and worse.



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uring that day in Seattle, I asked Russell why he stopped playing. The answer came in two parts. First, he didn't want to keep going if he wasn't the league's best player. Once he felt himself slipping imperceptibly, he decided to retire midway through the 1968-69 season, only telling his friend Oscar Robertson and nobody else. It wasn't about the physical grind for Russell, or even his body breaking down. Before every game, he worked himself into what he described as "a rage." That was just part of his process. He spent the day visualizing that night's game, thinking about his opponent, playing out sequences in his head, revving himself up, basically. If you think of basketball like chess, it makes a little more sense — Russell always wanted to be two or three chess moves ahead of everyone else. He didn't block shots in the moment. He blocked them five hours earlier. By the time he slipped on his uniform, Russell had already played out every possibility and determined every reaction. Carrying that knowledge into the game, and executing it, required an unfathomable amount of mental energy. Once he felt that energy slipping — not his skills, the energy itself — that's when he knew he needed to leave.

I know that sounds impossible, that no human being could actually think that way. But if you think of Russell as a genius —which he was — it might make more sense. Here's an example: A few years ago, Russell's wife 2 searched his name on eBay and found someone selling a DVD of one of Russell's college games. She bought the DVD and surprised him with it. They started watching the game: San Francisco (Russell's team) and Oregon State. 3 Bill Russell could rattle off every play before it happened. Not a few of the plays. Not half of the plays. Every play. For a random college game that happened in 1955.

"I can't do that anymore," Russell said last week. "I'm older now. If you showed me an old game now, I couldn't remember every play, just most of them."

Oh.

Anyway, Russell mined that genius through his 35th birthday, winning his final NBA title in his final game — in Los Angeles, in Game 7, with celebratory balloons hanging over the court that never ended up dropping. The greatest winner in sports history learned about those balloons before the game, felt the anger building inside him, embraced it one last time. "I knew we would win," he says now, and when he says it, you believe him. His career couldn't have ended any other way. 4

Every great basketball player reaches that point differently. Bird and Magic had to retire. Wilt's body broke down. Same for West. Kareem stayed one year too long. Oscar, Hakeem, Shaq and Moses kept playing until nobody wanted them anymore. Jordan left at the perfect time, missed the attention and (unfortunately) came back. Only Russell nailed his exit. I have a feeling Duncan will do the same. But Kobe? Your guess is as good as mine. He might be wired like a champion boxer, someone so competitive and relentless that you'd have to knock him out (or in Kobe's case, embarrass him) a few times before he reluctantly called it quits. Or, he might retire for a year or two, then return like Jordan did, unable to accept life after basketball. The romantic version? Kobe wins a sixth title, passes Jordan in career points, then drops the mic and moves back to Italy — playing well into his forties, torching inferior competition, draining six 3s a night, and reinventing himself as Europe's most famous basketball player.

Many NBA observers believe Kobe will handle his inevitable decline poorly, maybe even more poorly than Jordan's last two Wizards seasons. That's the reason Phil Jackson retired two years ago: He even admitted as much during our lunch together, saying that he didn't want to be coaching Kobe Bryant when Kobe wasn't Kobe anymore. 5 Even with Kobe still slinging his fastball in Year 17, it's morphed into another unhappy Lakers season — at least so far — and like always, Kobe has emerged as a lightning rod. His defenders maintain that Kobe hasn't been this efficient offensively in years, that you can't blame him for Dwight's back, Nash's leg, Mike Brown's brain and the cast of nobodies on his bench. His detractors believe it's been like watching Kobe Karaoke: As soon as things threatened to go south, Kobe started pushing for a new coach, blasting teammates and hogging the ball in close games. He's the most polarizing superstar since Wilt for a reason.

And yet …

Even his harshest critics marvel at Kobe's inspiring battle with Father Time, how he keeps churning out the same numbers —25 per night, every night, night after night — after reinventing his inside/outside game much like Jordan did. Only Tim Duncan has better footwork. Only LeBron competes as consistently hard. And nobody works harder during the offseason — even now, after playing 17 seasons, after making over $300 million, after battling a slew of injuries ranging from "annoying" to "how the hell is he playing?," after hitting a point in his career when basketball just shouldn't mean as much anymore. Unlike Bill Russell, Kobe Bryant can still work himself into that "rage" every night.

We know what's driving him: Kobe wants seven rings (one more than Jordan); he wants to be remembered as the greatest Laker of all time; he wants to at least be mentioned with Jordan; and he understands the sheer power of numbers better than anyone. You can pick apart his top-five candidacy pretty easily. He was the second-best player on three of those five title teams (not the best). He's only been voted "Most Valuable" once. He never held the "Best Player Alive" belt as emphatically as Jordan did, or even LeBron or Duncan did. And unlike Bird, Magic and Michael, his team seriously considered trading him one time (in 2007).

But you can't take two numbers away from him: 30,000 (points) and five (rings). It's all about pressure over time. He can't beat Jordan conventionally. Looking at the career regular-season averages …

Jordan: 30.1 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 5.3 APG, 50% FG, 84% FT, 27.9 PER, .250 WS/48, 5 MVPs

Magic: 19.5 PPG, 7.2 RPG, 11.2 APG, 52% FG, 85% FT, 23.0 PER, .208 WS/48, 3 MVPs.

Bryant: 25.4 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 4.7 APG, 45% FG, 84% FT, 23.5 PER, .185 WS/48, 1 MVP

… it's no contest. Jordan wins by any calculation. 6 And Magic remains the second-best guard ever, at least if you're going by those numbers. Career playoff averages don't help Kobe's case, either.

Jordan: 33.5 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 5.7 APG, 41.8 MPG, 49% FG, 83% FT, 28.6 PER, .255 WS/48, 6 rings, 6 MVPs

Magic: 19.5 PPG, 7.7 RPG, 12.4 APG, 39.7 MPG, 51/84%, 23.0 PER, .208 WS/48, 5 rings, 3 MVPs

Bryant: 25.6 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 4.7 APG, 39.3 MPG, 45% FG, 82% FT, 22.4 PER, .157 WS/48, 5 rings, 2 MVPs

We're still not arguing. Jordan's 33.5 PPG remains the highest ever — nobody else even cracked 30. Magic's 12.4 APG remains the highest ever — nobody else even cracked 10.2. Remember my 42 Club to account for players who averaged a combined 42-plus points, rebounds and assists in the same postseason playing at least 13 games? Only Jordan, Wilt, LeBron, Elgin, Pettit and Russell belong to the Career 42 Club. So there's that.

Back to "pressure over time" — Kobe knows that the totality of his career numbers, along with a certain number of rings (and really, five might be enough), might be enough to sway history his way. Look at this …

Jordan: 13 All-Stars (3 MVPs), 10 first-team All-NBAs (1 second-team), 1 Defensive P.O.Y.

Magic: 12 All-Stars (2 MVPs), 9 first-team All-NBAs (1 second-team), 0 Defensive P.O.Y.

Bryant: 13 All-Stars (4 MVPs), 10 first-team All-NBAs (2 second-team), 0 Defensive P.O.Y.

… and keep in mind, Kobe is still going. Now look at this.

Jordan: 1,072 games, 41,011 minutes, 32,292 points (fourth all time), 214.0 WS (fourth).

Magic: 906 games, 33,245 minutes, 17,707 points, 10,141 assists (fourth), 155.8 WS (22nd).

Bryant: 1,180 games, 43,077 minutes (17th), 30,016 points (sixth), 166.01 WS (17th)

And the playoff numbers …

Jordan: 179 playoff games, 7,474 minutes, 5,987 points, 1,152 rebounds, 1,022 assists.

Magic: 190 playoff games, 7,538 minutes, 3,701 points, 1,465 rebounds, 2,346 assists.

Bryant: 220 playoff games, 8,641 minutes, 5,640 points, 1,119 rebounds, 1,040 assists.

If you were wondering, Jordan and Kobe are the only members of the 5K/1K/1K Playoff Club AND the 4K/1K/1K Playoff Club. And again, Kobe is still going. Which is an entirely different conversation.

The most durable NBA superstars ever were Kareem and Karl Malone. 7 Kareem won Finals MVPs 14 years apart, lasted 20 solid years, started in Finals series 18 years apart, played 1,797 games (including playoffs) and averaged 22.2 points in the '87 playoffs when he was FORTY years old. (We didn't need to give Kareem a statue — he's never going to die. He's going to live until he's 400. He's not human.) And Malone lasted 19 years, played 1,669 games (including playoffs) and averaged 20-plus points for 17 straight seasons. Like Kobe today, Kareem and Malone were maniacal about taking care of themselves (Kareem with yoga, Malone with weights), but Kobe's era has offered decided advantages in conditioning, dieting, workout equipment, stretching routines, surgical techniques and even goofier advantages like napping (and the science behind it), sneakers (much better today) and the Internet (and the ability to study opponents on sites like Synergy). If ever an NBA player could play for a quarter of a century, and thrive for at least two solid decades, it's Kobe Bean Bryant. He's a basketball machine.

And that's what makes "the other stuff" so frustrating. Nothing that happened this season has been surprising because it's happened, in various forms, during so many other Laker seasons. Once upon a time, he called out Shaq — now he calls out Pau Gasol and Dwight Howard. He still says things like "If it doesn't get better, I'm going to kick everyone's asses," and you still can't even tell if he's half-kidding or not. He's only been successfully coached by one person … the man who happens to be the greatest NBA coach ever.

At this point, it's easier to remember Kobe's unhappy Lakers teams (by my count, nine 8 ) than the happy ones. His best teammate (Shaq) left Los Angeles on such hostile terms that they didn't talk for years. His second-best teammate (Gasol) looks totally broken, just a head case, a totally different player from the one who single-handedly almost vanquished our Olympic team five months ago. His third-best teammate (Andrew Bynum) got shipped to Philly and traded shots with Kobe on his way out. His only great coach (Phil Jackson) quit the Lakers and wrote a 2005 book that fearlessly tore Kobe to shreds with astonishing candor. His two non-Phil coaches since Shaq left have lasted 43 games and 83 games, respectively, before Mike D'Antoni took over. For reasons known only to him, he still takes shots at former teammates like Kwame Brown, Slava Medvedenko and the one and only Smush Parker, who landed in a bizarre Facebook-fueled feud with Kobe in October. I say "bizarre" because Smush was playing in China at the time. And because it was Smush Parker.

It's just a different way to lead a basketball team: through fear, through conflict, through bullying, through the media. He leads by example, and if you don't like that example, he reminds you how many rings he has (with the implication being, "Shut up"). When Jackson and Derek Fisher were around, Kobe's leadership was actually effective — something of a good cop/bad cop dynamic developed, with Kobe pushing the team competitively and the other two guys handling everything else. Now it's just him.

Sometimes, you wonder if Kobe can see the forest through the trees. He might be turning on Dwight Howard already — you can see it — a crucial development since Dwight could simply flee to Dallas, Houston or Atlanta next summer. Howard's missed free throws are driving Kobe batty; he can barely hide his disdain on the court anymore. Same for Howard's trying-too-hard-to-be-jovial routine and a general impression that Howard doesn't live and die with the result of every basketball game. From what I heard, Kobe already played the "You don't know anything about winning championships!" card with Howard — during a scrimmage last week, when the second team beat the first team partly because Howard checked out (he wasn't getting the ball enough), followed by Kobe blistering him. That same week, Kobe needled Gasol publicly for not sucking it up with knee tendinitis, saying he needed to "put your big boy pants." The whole thing is strange. Really, really weird to watch. Especially for me, just one week after hearing the greatest winner in basketball history say that he never criticized a teammate — not once.



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hen we were preparing for our NBA Countdown show on Wednesday afternoon, I told Magic that Russell/teammates story if only because I knew he'd appreciate it. 9 We started discussing the various ways to lead a basketball team. Magic settled on four, believing you could lead by example, by intimidation, by being a communicator (talking all the time, like Magic did) or by some combination of all three, or even two of the three. He didn't believe there was a right way or a wrong way. He believes basketball teams assume the personality of their best player, for better or worse. And that's always been the case. That night on television, Magic declared that Kobe misses Jackson and Fisher, with the implication being, Those guys helped Kobe so much more than anyone realized. 10

We've never asked Kobe for his feelings on leadership because we know the answer — he posted his thoughts on Facebook during the bizarre Smush Parker embroglio. I thought it was the strangest moment of Kobe's career, and possibly the most incredible, depending on how you feel about his 81-point game. Here's what he wrote. My thoughts off his thoughts are in parentheses.

Leadership is responsibility.

(So far so good.)

There comes a point when one must make a decision. Are YOU willing to do what it takes to push the right buttons to elevate those around you? If the answer is YES, are you willing to push the right buttons even if it means being perceived as the villain?

(Translation: I don't care if I take heat for pushing my teammates. I really don't. Say what you want. I can take it.)

Here's where the true responsibility of being a leader lies. Sometimes you must prioritize the success of the team ahead of how your own image is perceived.

(I'd be more prone to believe this if Kobe didn't spend so much time obsessing over how his image was perceived — he's the same guy who nicknamed himself "Mamba" and changed his number. Of course, maybe he wanted the perception of his image to include the words "Just as demanding as Jordan was, just as much of a bully, so that's another thing they had in common!" Who knows?)

The ability to elevate those around you is more than simply sharing the ball or making teammates feel a certain level of comfort.

(Look, I'm trying hard not to get snarky here. I'm trying really, really, really hard.)

It's pushing them to find their inner beast, even if they end up resenting you for it at the time.

(I think that's the most fascinating thing Kobe Bryant has ever said. Seriously. He just explained everything. I don't even think he was exaggerating or writing those words for effect. It might be as simple as "Every time I lay into Gasol or Howard, it's because I am pushing them to find their inner beast, and I don't give a shit if they resent me for it." Does he feel like Gasol responded so beautifully in Game 7 of the 2010 Finals — 19 points, 18 rebounds, nine offensive boards — partly because Kobe pushed him to embrace whatever an "inner beast" is called in Spanish? Why do I feel like he does?)

I'd rather be perceived as a winner than a good teammate.

(WHOA! GOOD GOD ALMIGHTY! Are you reading this????)

I wish they both went hand in hand all the time but that's just not reality.

(Translation: I need to read Second Wind again.)

I have nothing in common with lazy people who blame others for their lack of success.

(Translation: Hey, Smush Parker, tell me how my ass tastes.)

Great things come from hard work and perseverance. No excuses.

(That's a great quote. I couldn't agree more. I wish I could go back in time and use this as my high school yearbook quote instead of the embarrassing David Bowie passage that I picked.)

This is my way. It might not be right for YOU but all I can do is share my thoughts.

(Hold this thought.)

It's on YOU to figure out which leadership style suits you best.

(And actually, Magic Johnson agrees — so he might be right.)

Will check back in with you soon.. Till then Mamba out

(For the record, I end all my e-mails with "Mamba out" now.)

Could Kobe's Facebook post evolve into his own version of Second Wind? Why not? It's everything you ever wanted to know about his basketball career in 219 words. Which brings me to one last story involving a Hall of Fame center. Three years ago, I drove down to San Diego to interview Bill Walton for my NBA book and we ended up arguing (in a good-natured way) about Kobe right after he won the 2009 title. My book argued that success hinged on "The Secret" of basketball — that it wasn't actually about talent, but how you sacrificed your game and meshed with teammates. Walton maintained it was more like a "choice," saying it was every player's responsibility to find his own destiny. And that path was going to be different for every player. Walton believed that I didn't like watching Kobe that much because he didn't play basketball the way I liked to see basketball played. That was my choice, just like it was Kobe's choice to play that way.

And that's what Kobe described in that Facebook post. He's making it painfully, glaringly clear — after weighing every possibility, interacting with as many people as possible, and reading everything he could read, Kobe made the conscious decision to become this basketball player and this kind of leader. Just know that he put some real thought into it. So we shouldn't be surprised that he read Second Wind or hijacked that scouting-the-teammates trick. Kobe considered everything —every angle, every nuance, every trick, everything that could possibly help him — and determined what made sense for him and him alone. He wants to keep winning titles. He wants 40,000 points. He wants to be immortal.

He's also running out of time.

So, if the coach isn't working? He needs to go. If the new center isn't trying hard enough? He needs to try harder, or else. If the old center can't snap out of this crazy funk? Then he needs to put on his big-boy pants and suck it up. Kobe Bryant would rather be perceived as a winner than a good teammate. Kobe Bryant figured out what leadership style suited him best. Kobe Bryant doesn't care if you think he's a villain. Kobe Bryant wants to win and keep winning. Like Bill Russell before him, it's HIS job to make THEM better. He just does it differently. And if you don't like it? He doesn't care. This is his way. Mamba out.

This column has been updated.
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Schrödinger's Coach
Posted by: timbersfan, 3:18 PM GMT on December 05, 2012 +0
You're familiar with The Gaze, yes?

It's late in the match. Arsenal is trailing 2-1 to a beatable opponent. The Gunners are passing with urgency, doing everything but scoring, when suddenly some jumped-up Championship striker — let's call him, I don't know, Lee Stanhope, or maybe Robbie Davies — nabs the ball on the counter and goes barreling off toward Szczesny. He gets past Koscielny — it's not hard — and finds an opening before Sagna can track back. Quick chip shot and … yes! It's 3-1, just in time for the fourth official to hoist his little light board. The air sucks out of the Emirates. Game over.

And then: bam. The camera cuts to Arsene Wenger and, as if to put the final point on the disaster, we see The Gaze in its agonized glory. Wenger's eyes are clenched. His jaw is furrowed. He's looking at the spot where Walcott lost the ball, staring at it with the horrified dignity of a man who is simultaneously experiencing great pain and unable to believe that the event that brought on the pain has really happened. A man who, not for the first time, has seen his truest ideals betrayed by an indifferent world. A man who, furthermore, has recently eaten a pickle. Like all outward manifestations of complete psychic implosion, The Gaze has many depths.

If Arsene Wenger's late-game anguish-face has become a universal signpost among soccer fans, it's because Arsenal has become so familiar with late-game anguish. And early-game anguish. And halftime anguish. If there is such a thing as bus-ride-on-the-way-over-to-prematch-warm-ups anguish, I feel confident that Arsenal has experienced it repeatedly since 2005 (Wenger staring out the rain-streaked window of the motor coach, all the leaves of autumn falling behind his eyes).

Most recently, anguish arrived in the form of Saturday's 2-0 loss to Swansea, a team that used to be thought of as a kind of sidewalk-table Arsenal knockoff and can now simply be thought of as three places ahead of Arsenal in the Premier League table. The defeat left the Gunners in 10th — they've also dropped games to Norwich, Manchester United, and Chelsea — four points out of a Champions League spot and 15 points out of first place. They've won five games in 15 league matches since letting Robin van Persie escape to Manchester United in August. More seriously, they haven't won a trophy of any description in seven years, six months, and 13 days.1 Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain was 11 then. Peter O'Toole once quipped that The Ruling Class, his film about a paranoid schizophrenic who inherits an English peerage, was "a comedy with tragic relief." Arsenal increasingly looks like a tragedy with tragic relief. Only funny.

How do you characterize the pressure that's built up on Arsene Wenger during those seven years, six months, etc.? For much of that time, during what we might call the Tatooine period of Arsenal decline, the narrative the club sold to Gunners fans was one of young talent and hope: Things might look dark now, but wait till the youthful core of Cesc Fabregas and Robin van Persie and Samir Nasri and Emmanuel Adebayor and Theo Walcott and Nicklas Bendtner matures, and you'll see a force that could dominate English football for 10 years. The moment when that blossoming was destined to take place always seemed to be "next season," but it was something to live on, at least. The only problem was that most of the child stars got tired of waiting for themselves to mature and jumped ship for clubs where they could win trophies immediately:2 Fabregas to Barcelona, Nasri to Manchester City, van Persie to Manchester United, Adebayor to various clubs, and Bendtner to Bendtner Comes Alive! FC, a club of 11 Bendtners that plays its league games inside Bendtner's imagination.3

Having been criticized by fans for relying too heavily on youth players and not being aggressive in the transfer market, Wenger reacted to the slow bleed of his roster talent from 2009 to 2012 by … promoting a couple of good youth players (Oxlade-Chamberlain and Jack Wilshere) and not being aggressive in the transfer market (Prince is updating "When Doves Cry" to reflect what it feels like to watch Gervinho play for Arsenal). The really scary thing for the club is that it's not even all that startling to see them in their current position. They just don't have enough good players. Wenger keeps pointing out that the first team is tired, but the first team is tired mostly because Marouane "Hair Infection" Chamakh would have to enter the game if any of them ever left a match.4 Voltaire wrote in his notebook that God is on the side of the best shots, not the biggest armies. But Wenger doesn't have those, either.

And so to the question that's been asked in louder and louder whispers around the Premier League for at least the last two seasons: Should Arsenal part ways with Wenger? I mean, it's an impossible idea; he's not only the most successful manager in the history of the club, a coach who's already been given the bronze-bust treatment, he was also the architect of the era of success that makes the current era of un-success look so miserable. He's the winningest coach in Arsenal history. He presided over the only undefeated team in the English top flight since 1889.5 He once built a defense on £6 million that went 10 games without conceding in the Champions League. His Arsenal squads, during their peak Henry/Bergkamp years, played the game with more style than just about any other team in English history. It's not an exaggeration to say that he changed the way English football clubs think.

But still. The game doesn't lie. He's been on the wrong side of just about everything for several years now,6 and his early innovations at the club (a global scouting network, a modern understanding of fitness and nutrition, etc.) have long since been assimilated by his rivals. If Majority Arsenal Shareholder And American Billionaire Stan Kroenke called you up and asked for some advice, what would you tell him to do?

Easily the strangest thing about Wenger as a public figure is the way he appears as, simultaneously, a doomed visionary and a guy standing outside a lecture hall at Davos. He frequently talks about his commitment to entertaining fans and creating beautiful soccer.7 He is determined to do things his way, and if that means losing, he will stare into the blue ether with 10 kinds of mournfulness and lose. At the same time, his postmatch comments after a loss are often weirdly econometric, focused on stadium infrastructure and financial stability, and sometimes bewilderingly detached from the immediacy of winning and losing.8

Here he is, for instance, after losing against Swansea this past weekend: "This club is in fantastic shape. We have a good team, we have a strong structure that we have built over the years; we are in a strong financial situation and we are mentally strong." And he's right! Arsenal is very well run as a company, if you care about teams as companies. The seven-year title drought coincided with, and was possibly even created by, a series of enormously complex structural changes at the club — the move from Highbury to the Emirates Stadium, the redevelopment of the old ground as a luxury apartment complex, the consolidation of power from a group of feuding shareholders into Kroenke's majority ownership — that have put it on a firmer operational foundation. Still, though … winning and losing counts for something, right? Isn't it a little bizarre to focus on long-term operational improvements when you're staring at your worst-ever start to a Premier League season? If it weren't for The Gaze, you could get the impression that Wenger has refined the idea of soccer to the point that it no longer involves actually playing the game.

Which points toward something interesting: Isn't it striking how corporate Wenger's lifelong romantic engagement with beautiful football has been? He built — this is the romantic part — a team that could play the style of football he saw in his dreams. But he did it by exploiting market inefficiencies (signing players other Premier League clubs weren't scouting), embracing globalization (stocking Arsenal with foreign players at a time when the league was still mostly English), pursuing commercial partnerships (the deal with Emirates Airlines helped defray the cost of the stadium), and obsessing over easily controlled and replicable details like dietary balance. He didn't read his players "O Captain! My Captain!"; he got them personal trainers while tinkering with the shareholders' financial report.

Well, that's how you win beautifully in modern soccer. But it suggests that Wenger is intelligent enough and flexible enough to think like an executive as well as like a visionary coach — that for him, the two roles may even be synonymous. And that, ultimately, is why it's impossible to say whether Arsenal should fire him or not. Because we, as outside observers, however knowledgeable (and fun, and good-looking) we are, have no idea what the Arsenal board has demanded of Wenger. If they've made vast sums available for his transfer spending and pleaded with him to build the strongest team in England, then yes, his determination to buy bargain players and stick to his own vision has hurt the club. But what if they've ordered him to keep costs down, control wages, and just do the best he can while they get the club's long-term revenue and ownership structures worked out? Obviously, some managers would fail swiftly and hilariously in that scenario (I'm not convinced that Harry Redknapp knows how to subtract). But Wenger? He could just about keep it together under those circumstances, right? And wouldn't his corporate-administrative, "this club is in fantastic shape" side even approve of the project?

The only criterion by which we can judge a coach is what he accomplishes with the resources he has. And with Wenger, the background is so complicated that we simply don't know exactly what he's had. He's soccer's quantum uncertainty. He's a terrible coach whose decisions have ruined Arsenal, and he's a brilliant coach whose balancing act has saved Arsenal's future. We have no way of measuring which of those things he really is, so to us, he's both at the same time.

The slogan Arsenal fans have always used to express their faith in Wenger is "Arsene Knows." Maybe Arsene does know, and that's why he's gazing into space with that black-hole stare every weekend. For the fans' sake, I hope someone knows something — and at the moment that's all I know about Arsenal.
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‘Football the Way It's Supposed to Be Played’
Posted by: timbersfan, 1:22 AM GMT on December 05, 2012 +0
You're asking a lot of tough questions there," said Nick Saban, in response to a pair of questions that were not really tough at all, but also happened to veer into the realm of genuine human emotion, which is clearly not something Saban feels comfortable addressing in a public forum. It was a Saturday evening in Atlanta, and I presume Saban was relatively pleased, since his team had just survived an epic SEC Championship Game with Georgia and would now play for the national championship. But as usual, it was difficult to tell, and such was the obvious subtext of these queries. "I'm wondering, you personally, how long will you celebrate this win?" (Translation: Do you ever enjoy anything?) "How long will you let it soak in and when will you start preparing for Notre Dame personally?" (Translation: Do you even know how to enjoy anything?)

Already, on the trophy podium, as confetti and streamers popped out of the ceiling with a bang and the air grew hazy and the Georgia Dome took on the smell of an artillery range, Saban took out a pen and a notebook and marked down the word banquet. "First of all, you know, we have our team banquet tomorrow night," he said now, and then he rambled for a minute or two about how his team doesn't "practice our way to a game," about how he wouldn't fully focus in on Notre Dame for another couple of weeks, until his team started practicing in earnest. It was a deft and almost certainly false deflection; in the Alabama locker room a few minutes earlier, a linebacker named Nico Johnson was talking about how the Crimson Tide would essentially start over again this week, emphasizing the fundamentals, treating the next month like a repeat of fall camp, and insisting that they would essentially take no time at all to exhale because that was not the way their coach did things.

"So that's how we try to approach it," Saban concluded, and no one believed him, and Saban could sense that not only did no one believe him, most of what he said didn't really have much to do with the question of what he was feeling (or, for that matter, if he ever felt anything). And this seemed to please him most of all.

"I'm pretty good at not answering questions," he said.

I was on the field for the final minute of what might have been the best game of this dynamic and compelling college football season, and so I did not have the benefit of a mediated experience, of Verne Lundquist's endearing chortles and Gary Danielson's rigid proclamations about two-point conversions and clock management. It was loud and disorienting and chaotic down there on the Georgia sideline; when quarterback Aaron Murray threw what appeared to be an interception with 43 seconds left and his team trailing, 32-28, an offensive lineman walked back to the sideline and kicked over a chair and spiked his helmet, and he and I both presumed the damned thing was over. But then it wasn't. The call was overturned, and that bred further chaos, and on the opposite sideline, this lack of discipline — this fundamental ignorance of detail — was driving Nick Saban out of his well-coiffed gourd.

"I know y'all don't want to hear this stuff, but we're playing '33 zone' so they can't get out of bounds," he said. "And we let the guy get out of bounds twice over there without a first down. We tackle the guy inbounds one time and the game is over because it'll take them 25, 30 seconds, to get the next play going, by the time they regroup and run back to the formation and all that kind of stuff."

This obsessive micromanagement — and beyond that, the ability to translate this obsessiveness to a room full of 20-year-olds without alienating them altogether — is what makes Saban the best college football coach in this country. It is also why his teams are often purposefully uninteresting to watch; and that, I guess, is why he assumes that we all don't want to hear about this nitpicky little stuff, even when it's about as fascinating a window into his soul as we'll ever get. On Saturday, Alabama managed to be both boring and thrilling at the same time: Their power-run game, behind running backs Eddie Lacy and T.J. Yeldon and one of the best offensive lines in modern history, was culled straight from a John Facenda film reel. When Georgia crept forward in the tackle box to stop it, that's when quarterback AJ McCarron threw one of the best passes of his career, a deep ball down the sideline that hit freshman receiver Amari Cooper in stride, giving Alabama back the lead in a contest that had swung back and forth several times in the second half, when neither team could seem to stop the other.

In the end, Saban relied on a simple, power football strategy: Use the run to set up the pass. In the end, it came down to what one Alabama player, on ESPN's Gameday, had referred to as "football the way it's supposed to be played"; in the end, the SEC championship was decided by the SEC's primary claim to superiority, which is that they play football the way it's supposed to be played, and they just happen to do it better than anyone else ever has.

"I thought we were watching a Big 12 game there in the second half," I heard one Alabama fan say afterward, and there was little doubt he meant it pejoratively, and I assume he was fully aware that the Tide's only loss of the season had come to the one team that had challenged them on the Big 12's loose and creative terms. But right then, he might as well have labeled the Big 12 a hippie commune.


MIKE EHRMANN/GETTY IMAGES
I remember looking up at the clock and seeing 15 seconds remaining, and I remember thinking, Maybe they should spike it here. And I remember Georgia running a play, and Alabama's C.J. Mosley reaching an outstretched hand to tip it at the line of scrimmage, and the ball landing in the hands of the wrong Bulldog receiver, and I remember there was a moment of almost paralyzed silence in the Dome while we all waited for it to register, and then Aaron Murray undid his chin strap and walked toward the sideline, his face contorted into a grimace, and all that ridiculous crap started to tumble from the ceiling and it got very loud in the Dome once more.

"We called a play called stout … it's a fade by the outside receiver," said Bulldogs coach Mark Richt, who will now endure another offseason as the most embattled successful/likable coach in the country. "It's a four-step speed out by the inside receiver [who wound up catching the ball] … Spiking the ball takes time. We had plenty of time to call a play."

Honestly, I don't know if Richt made the right call by not spiking it, but I think there's a rationale here that applies to the BCS Championship Game, and that rationale has to do with Nick Saban, because the one element that seems capable of confounding a Saban team is spontaneity. It is rare that you catch an Alabama team off-guard, and so maybe it was best to attack the end zone before the Tide had a moment to prepare, to set themselves, to process all the micromanagerial lessons that Saban and his coaching staff had drilled down on them all year long.1 I mean, Alabama has lost two games in the past two seasons: One was to Les Miles, who is capable of doing something absurd and nonsensical at any time and has most assuredly worked his way into Saban's head like no other coach; the other was to Texas A&M, whose quarterback ad-libbed and prolonged plays to the point that order broke down into chaos. Frankly, Georgia might not have set the tempo in this game without the benefit of a successful fake punt in the first half.

I'm not sure if Notre Dame can defeat Alabama on their own terms. Maybe they can — maybe their defense really is that good — but a lot of very good teams have tried and failed over the past two seasons, and the Irish do have a quarterback who can prolong plays and engender chaos, and I imagine that, despite what Nick Saban says, he is already worrying about this while he stares blankly at the Weather Channel every morning. I imagine Notre Dame's best chance will come if they can lock into a moment or two that rely on improvisation, and that Saban could not possibly prepare for, and that do not fit strictly into the definition of football the way it's supposed to be played.

"Our players need to learn and execute things," Saban said. "Like I told them, the most important thing in this game was to execute the plan."

The answer, once again, had little to do with the question, but it was the answer that may have explained who Nick Saban is better than anything else he could have said. He got up shortly after that, walking fast and purposefully through the tunnels of the Georgia Dome accompanied by a retinue of well-wishers and state troopers, and finally burst through a door marked AUTHORIZED PERSONNEL ONLY, into a place where he seemed to belong.
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In Defense of Vince Carter
Posted by: timbersfan, 1:21 AM GMT on December 05, 2012 +0
In May 2010, Vince Carter was producing about 18 points per game for an Orlando team — his hometown team — that swept the first two rounds of the playoffs and looked like the best team in the league. He was the no. 2 option, a livelier and more polished version of Hedo Turkoglu, and the Magic were primed to win the title they lost to the Lakers the season before. But the aging Celtics stole Game 1 of the conference finals in Orlando and were hanging on late in Game 2, up 95-92 with 31 seconds left, when Carter stepped to the line for two must-have free throws. He missed both. Orlando lost the game and Carter disappeared for the rest of the series, averaging just 10 points per game on 33 percent shooting as Boston earned an improbable return trip to the Finals.

Carter was out of Orlando before Christmas the next season, sent to a mediocre Phoenix team in the megadeals that landed the Magic Gilbert Arenas, Jason Richardson, and Hedo Turkoglu. Carter played listless ball in Phoenix, ceding the lane to others on offense and politely vacating it on defense when he had opportunities to take a charge. He was an inattentive defender away from the ball on the perimeter, shot just 42 percent from the floor, barely got to the line, and looked every bit the part of a broken, selfish gunner playing out the string on his last massive contract. Vince Carter had become irrelevant faster than nearly any Hall of Fame–level superstar in the history of the NBA.

And then something unexpected happened, and is still happening: Carter reinvented himself in Dallas as a solid two-way player willing to work on both ends of the floor and fill whatever role the Mavericks asked of him on offense. He busted it during the lockout-shortened 2011-12 season, but the results were uneven — 41 percent shooting and a 13.6 Player Efficiency Rating, both career lows. Carter's numbers have ticked back up this season, even as the Mavericks have shifted him almost full-time to small forward and asked him to occasionally work as the centerpiece of their offense in Dirk Nowitzki's absence. The Mavs signed Carter in 2011 with no idea whether he'd contribute at all, but tune in to a Dallas game during crunch time this week and you'll likely see Carter running the pick-and-roll or using his beefed-up post game to draw a double-team, scan the floor, and find the open man.

The praise out of Dallas is unanimous, to the point that it doesn't seem possible the Mavs are talking about the same Vince Carter — the malingerer who exaggerates injuries, loafs on defense, and pouted his way out of Toronto, devastating a franchise and costing several higher-ups their jobs. "I can't say anything but great things about [Carter]," Mavs owner Mark Cuban says. "He brings it every night. He will take on any role coach asks of him. He is even taking a charge now and then."

Elton Brand laughs and clarifies that Carter leads the team in attempted charges. "I don't think he's actually got that many," Brand says with a laugh. "But he's throwing his body around down there." Brand and Carter are old Duke-Carolina rivals, but Brand didn't know Carter well before this season. He says he has been impressed so far by Carter's approach to the game. "He's one of the great superstars of his era, but he's coming off the bench here without complaint, working tirelessly, and being a really good teammate for the young guys," Brand says. "He's not out there trying to rock the boat, or saying he should be starting." Others in the Mavericks organization agree that Carter has taken on a key mentorship role, especially with Jae Crowder, the team's promising rookie combo forward.

Brand, a fiercely proud defender, adds this: "And Vince executes team defense really well." Wait: Vince Carter?

Let's not oversell things. Carter isn't a reliable one-on-one isolation scorer, and the Mavericks have probably leaned too heavily on him late in close games against Charlotte, Golden State, and others. He's not going to lock down an elite scorer for 35 minutes a night — or even play that many minutes. His pick-and-roll play is more functional than spectacular, and when he goes for spectacular, he usually ends up forcing a very difficult floater while bumping into a defender's chest in the lane. He's mostly a jump shooter, pulling up for 3s when defenders go under screens, or popping from the right elbow when defenders chase him over picks.

He's a good passer, but he's not Steve Nash or Chris Paul, the kind of player who creates passes that wouldn't otherwise exist with deep penetration and clever stop-and-go moves in the lane. Carter mostly makes the simple pick-and-roll passes. If the defense traps him, he'll jump right away and hit the roll man in the lane. If a defender on the weak side shifts into the paint early to bump that roll man, Carter will make the very basic pass across the court to the open spot-up guy — the shooter most defenses will leave open for a split second in order to patrol the paint. Carter makes most of these passes from outside the 3-point line, meaning he's not getting into the teeth of the defense.

But not everyone can make those passes, and Carter can sling them in part because he's big enough to see over defenders in his face.

The story is the same on defense: functional, but not game-changing. For the second straight season, Carter is doing fine on his own against one-on-one attacks; players are just 5-of-13 in isolations against him after going 13-of-44 last season, per Synergy Sports. Carter's footwork is genuinely very good, and if you blacked out his upper body and focused only on the legs dancing in concert with the dribbling would-be scorer, you might mistake his footwork for that of Jason Kidd. He doesn't bite on pump fakes, and he challenges shots without fouling.

The real revelation has been Carter's ability to fit nicely within Dallas's complex team defense schemes. He funnels ball handlers the right way, battles through screens and watches the ball without losing sight of his man — a chronic problem during his Phoenix malaise. The Mavs over the last two seasons have adopted an even more aggressive "pack the paint" philosophy with Tyson Chandler gone, and it's a strategy that requires maximum coordination, communication, and effort. Help defenders away from the ball are supposed to be in the paint early, as Carter is in the two stills below:


COURTESY OF SYNERGY/NBA

COURTESY OF SYNERGY/NBA
The goal is to take away what the offense wants to do on the strong side, and to force that offense to reset things by swinging the ball to the other side of the floor as the shot clock dwindles. When the offense makes that swing pass, those weakside defenders have to be ready to rotate to the correct players — to return to their own man if the situation allows for it, or to pick up the slack for a teammate who has gotten sucked too far into the paint to find his original mark.

Watch Carter doing that stuff. He's banging roll men in the paint and darting back out to his guy with maximum effort. He's talking and pointing, directing less experienced teammates to the right places as the offense changes shape. He's mostly making the right reads — rotating to the correct player so Dallas doesn't have two defenders chasing the same shooter, and closing out harder on Steve Novak than Alonzo Gee. There is a braininess to Carter's defense now.

Again: Nothing spectacular, just what smart defenders are supposed to do. But Carter wasn't doing it in Phoenix, and he was a subpar defender for most of his time in Toronto, when he had to carry an offense before he demanded a trade and then quit on his team in order to finally engineer one. You wouldn't have guessed two years ago that Carter, almost 36 now, would be attaching this coda to his career. His reputation certainly wouldn't have suggested it. "I wasn't worried about his reputation at all," Cuban says. "We look very closely at guys who have supposed reputations around the league. [Those reputations] are usually wrong, and they give us an opportunity to add good players."

It's hard to argue that the perception of Carter has really been wrong. His effort level did fall off when he wanted out of Toronto, even as he collected giant paychecks. He flopped in Phoenix, and those two missed free throws against Boston are only the most glaring lowlights in his career postseason underperformance. He has shot 40.2 percent or worse from the field in five of his seven trips to the playoffs, though he was productive in the other two — especially during a masterful 2005-06 run with the Nets. His playoff issues have given rise to the opinion around the league, including among his peers, that Carter is "too nice" to win, and that he was perhaps pressing in his quest to bring a title to the Magic.

Is all of it — the Toronto disgrace, the postseason flops, etc. — enough to keep him out of the Hall of Fame? It looked like it a year or so ago, when Carter appeared on his way out with career numbers that were very nice, but that did not quite confer Springfield lock status upon him. But he's averaging 13 per game now, shooting 42 percent from deep, and playing legitimately solid defense. He'll at least approach 22,000 career points this season, and with a guaranteed deal for next season, he has a shot to reach 23,000 if he stays healthy. Only 13 players in NBA/ABA history have eclipsed 22,000 points, 5,000 rebounds, and 4,000 assists; Carter, Ray Allen, and Paul Pierce will make it 16 shortly, and a few others — Clyde Drexler, Gary Payton, Larry Bird — barely missed. Eleven of those 13 players are in the Hall of Fame, and the other two are Kevin Garnett and Kobe Bryant. There is obviously some major cherry-picking involved in selecting those numbers; Carter will barely make the rebound and assist totals, while several players, including Dirk Nowitzki, Hakeem Olajuwon, and Patrick Ewing, have blown away the 22,000/5,000 feat by a wide margin while falling short on the dimes. Still, the numbers are impressive, and if you like plus/minus stuff, Carter's teams have usually scored much more efficiently with him on the floor — and defended at about the same level with him on the floor as on the bench.

Numbers aren't everything; that's why Antawn Jamison, a horrid defender for much of his career, is unlikely to get in. Carter has long had the counting stats and regular-season numbers. It was the other stuff that had fans, players, and media members justifiably holding their noses when it came to Carter's Hall candidacy.

And that's fair. Carter has earned that skepticism. But that shouldn't blind us to a fun little late-career evolution happening in Dallas — the kind of evolution a lot of players never figure out. Only 21 of the 87 first-rounders in Carter's draft class and the subsequent two are even active in the league. Carter is still surprising us.

10 Things I Like and Don't Like


GARY DINEEN/GETTY IMAGE
1. Boston's Alternate Road Jerseys

Dear Celtics: You have the best uniforms in the NBA, and one of the very best in all of U.S. pro sports. The green road jerseys are particularly attractive and iconic. Please stop messing them up with black trim, black numbers, and black words. The black alternates are for teams desperate to sell more stuff or project an unearned coolness. You are neither.

2. Milwaukee's Sudden Mike Dunleavy Pin-Down

Having a shooter run off a screen for a catch-and-shoot opportunity is NBA bread and butter. I can see it in my sleep. But the Bucks have a fun variation for Mike Dunleavy, whose on-the-cheap signing stands as one of the most underrated free-agent moves of the last few summers. It will start with Dunleavy innocently fading to the left corner as the Bucks run a pick-and-roll on the right side. The other two Milwaukee players will be standing next to each other on the left side, opposite the pick-and-roll action, as the play unfolds. And then suddenly, they will bolt together down toward Dunleavy, forming a monster moving double screen around which Dunleavy can cut up toward the foul line, catch a pass, and fire an open jumper. It's a fun variation on a classic NBA action, one that works in part because Dunleavy at the start of things looks to be clearing the right side for a pick-and-roll that is really just a decoy.

Also: LARRY SANDERS!


ROCKY WIDNER/NBAE/GETTY IMAGES
3. Marc Gasol's Shoes

They say "MARC" in giant letters on the part of the tongue that sticks out. I find this hysterical for some reason.

4. The Lakers' Defense

The Magic eviscerated the Lakers down the stretch on Sunday night in what had to be a very satisfying victory, and they became the latest team to expose the inconsistencies that will doom the Lakers if the glamour team doesn't fix them. Pick-and-roll ball handlers have been able to get by Dwight Howard's help defense more easily than usual, and he's not cutting off passing angles with the same precision as he did in Orlando. Pau Gasol has often been slow and out of position in trying to cut off those same ball handlers. Metta World Peace is trying his damnedest to guard the best opposing perimeter player every night to spare Kobe Bryant, but the results have been uneven. (World Peace sacrificing in this way is the main reason it's a joke Kobe keeps ending up on the All-Defensive teams.)

The Lakers have too often failed to force ball handlers to the baseline on side pick-and-rolls, and the chemistry between Howard and Gasol just isn't there. The holes are too big when one of them slides over to help on the strong side, and they don't close quickly enough. Smart cutters can find space to score, and a lot of enemy possessions end with Gasol and Howard shrugging at each other trying to hash out who was supposed to do what.

It's not a crisis. The Lakers have been among the league's 10 stingiest defenses all season. But they'll have to find consistency to get where they want to go.

5. Al-Farouq Aminu, Dribbling

Aminu is shooting a career-best 48 percent, hitting the boards, and working hard on defense. But teams don't guard him on the perimeter, and when you watch him attempt to dribble the ball at any location on the court, you can almost understand why the Hornets declined their $3.75 million option for next season on Aminu.

6. Kenneth Faried at Center

George Karl is still trying to find a comfort zone with his big-man rotation, but using Faried at center doesn't appear to be a workable solution. The two most common such lineups have allowed 115.2 and 123.8 points per 100 possessions, respectively, per NBA.com; the Hornets' league-worst defense has allowed 107.5.

You can understand what Karl is chasing. Pairing Faried with a center cramps the spacing for Denver's perimeter players so tightly even Ty Lawson can't squeeze all the way to the rim, and pairing Faried with a second unreliable defender in JaVale McGee has been a disaster; the Nuggets have allowed 112.2 points per 100 possessions when those two play together. But the Nuggets with Faried as the nominal center just don't have the size to compete for long stretches. The uncertain big-man rotation is the biggest issue separating Denver from the Western Conference heavies.

7. The Noise in the Barclays Center

The Barclays Center provides some of the best sight lines in the NBA, but it is also turning me into my father. "WHY IS IT SO LOUD IN HERE?! WHAT? WHY ARE THEY STILL PLAYING MUSIC OVER THE GAME ACTION 45 SECONDS AFTER THE LAST STOPPAGE? THE CHEERLEADERS ON STILTS ARE FRIGHTENING ME!"

It is overwhelming. It almost literally hurts.

8. The Bulls' Version of the "X" Cut

The Bulls have slipped to 21st in points per possession, and it takes some ingenuity to squeeze points from the current roster. One nice wrinkle: Chicago will have Luol Deng enter the ball to Carlos Boozer on the right block and jog across the paint toward the left side of the floor so casually it appears he's just clearing space for Boozer to work. But Joakim Noah will be lurking at the foul line, and Deng's jog will take him right beside Noah's defender, at which point Noah will accelerate around the scrum of players, cut toward the rim, and take a pass from Boozer for a layup.

9. Detroit Starting Kyle Singler

Detroit is 6-5 since moving Singler into Rodney Stuckey's starting role, and though the change hasn't turned the Pistons into a white-hot scoring machine, it has helped. Detroit's new starting lineup has scored 102.1 points per 100 possession so far, a mark that would rank 12th in the league. The old lineup, devoid of any long-range shooting, is scoring a sub-Wizards 88.8 points per 100 possessions, and this new group at least looks likes an NBA-level offense. There's more impactful off-ball movement, a bit more space on the floor, more dribble handoffs, and a level of dynamism that wasn't there before. It's not much, especially as Brandon Knight continues to have control and turnover issues, but it's a start.

10. Jeremy Lin's Functional No-Look Passes

Lin's still struggling, but he can take heart in knowing he actually fools defenders with his no-look passes. So many no-look passes fail because they aren't really no-look passes; guys throw the pass and then look away. Lin's are real, and they work.
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The Year of Living Cautiously
Posted by: timbersfan, 1:20 AM GMT on December 05, 2012 +0
We will remember the 2012 NFL season for Peyton Manning's astonishing comeback; the bumbling replacement refs (and the ensuing furor about the bumbling replacement refs); Golden Tate's "Fail Mary"; San Francisco's ballsy quarterback switch; the dueling Andy Reid/Norv Turner collapses; Atlanta shattering the record for "How the hell did they win that game?" victories; a truly bizarre Saints season that's playing out like the worst sports movie ever made; ChuckStrong; a slew of sloppy Thursday-night football games; Adrian Peterson's comeback; the Ass-to-Sanchez fumble; the magic of RG3 and the anti-magic of Blaine Gabbert; Houston winning two overtime games in less than 100 hours; Adderall's emergence as the NFL's new drug of choice (or handy excuse for a four-game suspension, or both); too many Aaron Rodgers commercials; God's blistering hatred of Cleveland and Kansas City; and, of course, Roger Goodell turning into Warden Norton from Shawshank, botching a variety of high-profile situations, contradicting himself in the most basic ways and making a legitimate run at Gary Bettman's "Most Inept Commissioner" crown.1 Somehow, we're not going to remember Tim Tebow even a little — he's about three years away from appearing on Survivor with a scruffy beard and pretending he's an insurance agent from Tampa.

Just know that we'll remember the lingering effect of concussions — and how it affects the way we watch football — over everything else that happened this season. The sport changed, and it continues to change, and really, I don't know where we're going anymore.

What's acceptable? Where are the lines? Last Sunday, the Seahawks-Dolphins game swung on a seemingly ludicrous call: Ryan Tannehill throwing the ball up for grabs in the end zone right as Seattle's Earl Thomas (running full-speed) jumped toward him with his arms outstretched, trying to deflect what ended up being a truly rancid pass that Seattle picked off easily. Only one problem: As Thomas was following through with his deflecting motion, Tannehill moved and one of Thomas's hands struck him in the head. Accidental, unintentional contact that only Bruce Lee or one of the Matrix characters could have avoided. What happened? They whistled Thomas with a penalty and gave the ball back to the Dolphins, who immediately tied the game and went on to win by three.

As the only person who picked the Seahawks to make the Super Bowl, as well as someone who would have wagered on Seattle (laying three points) if gambling were legal, the call left me more outraged than Alton's whiny, pathetic, legacy-altering, mail-in-of-a-performance in The Challenge did three days later. I even wondered in a tweet why the league didn't make helmet-to-helmet and inadvertently-hit-someone-because-they-were-in-mid air-when-the-target-moved-and-couldn't-stop-becaus e-it's-effing-impossible-to-change-what-your-brain -already-told-your-body-in-less-than-a-split-secon d penalties reviewable. If the goal of the instant-replay process is "getting game-turning calls correct," then shouldn't coaches be able to challenge massively important 15-yard penalties that may have been interpreted incorrectly? In the moment, I genuinely believed that Thomas's penalty (a) was the wrong call, and (b) altered the course of that Seahawks-Dolphins game.

Here's the funny part: Two days later, I learned that the NFL penalized Thomas for the play. Fifteen thousand dollars!!!! My man Mike Florio even defended the league and said it was the right call! And you know what else? IT PROBABLY WAS THE RIGHT CALL! You're not allowed to intentionally hurt quarterbacks, mistakenly hurt quarterbacks or even hurt their feelings anymore. It's a zero-tolerance policy for anything involving the words "quarterbacks" and "hurt." Same goes for defenseless receivers over the middle. Same goes for punters as they're kicking the football. Same goes for defenseless kick returners or defensive players getting annihilated by blind-side blocks … well, except for you, Eric Weddle.

So it's been something of an adjustment season — players recalibrating how they compete in a violent sport that only occurs at warp speed, a game they've been playing their entire lives a certain way, only now someone is telling them, "No, no, no, you have to play it THIS way now." Are we giving them enough credit for the difficulty of that task? Whenever I play pickup basketball, I invariably make a few spur-of-the-moment decisions that, even before they unfold into a play, my brain is realizing, "No! Don't do it!" after my body had already decided, "This is a great idea! I'm doing this!" and suddenly, I'm throwing a half-court pass to someone who isn't even remotely open. That's the biggest problem with getting old, and the biggest reason why I'm probably going to stop playing basketball soon: The mind-to-body delay between "This is a great idea! I'm doing this!" and "No! Don't do it!" has become a little too long for me. Well, unless I start doing HGH and chugging Adderall like Pez. And don't think I'm not thinking about it.

But isn't the length of that delay, as well as how it's handled, one of the things that defines any athletic performance? When Drew Brees threw those two terrible picks last night against Atlanta (I know he had five, but there were two especially egregious ones), I guarantee his brain was telling his right arm "NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!" even as his right arm was following through with a suddenly hopeless pass. You have hundreds of these moments every single football game, many of them happening with players traveling 20 miles an hour. Now we're attempting to govern them? No wonder it's been so bumpy.

And yet, every time someone gets decked, or someone is lying there twitching on the ground, you feel an entirely different emotion watching them reenter the game a few plays later. Was that too soon? Are we sure? And you hope they didn't tell a lie to their coaches so they could get back in there. Think about how much THAT changed compared to the old days — when we celebrated monster hits, poked fun at Troy Aikman's Concussion Face (a comedy staple in this column once upon a time), listened to meathead announcers yelp delightedly "He got … JACKED … UP!!!!!!!!!!!" and celebrated the Ronnie Lotts and Steve Atwaters for patrolling the middle and leaving a trail of limp bodies.

So it isn't just football that's changing. We're changing. I never really thought about it until a Middlebury, Vermont, reader named Patrick e-mailed me, "While also being absolute masterpieces, the 'Madden' 2000 and 2002 intros show how much softer the NFL has gotten over the years. Both of them thrive off the helmet to helmet hits that the league is trying to distance itself from now."

He didn't provide YouTube links, so I went and found them myself. They're amazing. Here's the cartoonishly violent 2000 intro …


And here's the nearly-as-violent 2002 intro …


That 2002 game was released one month before 9/11. Not that long ago, right? You watch it now and think, Yeeeessh. Where were we? Why didn't we know? Why didn't we care? At some point, the NFL will figure out the right leeway for players — a middle ground that allows them to play football under a safer set of rules without compromising them or becoming the TFL (Touch Football League). Just know that we aren't there yet. I thought the Seahawks got screwed last week. Maybe you realize it, maybe you don't, but we're witnessing a historic football season — the year football changed and we changed, and everyone agreed that it needed to happen, only there were more than a few sizable bumps along the way. I believe we're headed for a playoff game, or even a Super Bowl, that hinges on an officiating decision lurking in that nebulous, work-in-progress zone between that innocuous Thomas-Tannehill penalty (15 yards) and Anquan Boldin's game-saving, bone-crushing, probably-not-legal-and-definitely-dangerous block on Ray Rice's incredible fourth-and-29 reception (no call) that left Eric Weddle twitching on the field like a headless walker in The Walking Dead.

Maybe that's how this crazy 2012 season should be decided — by an in-the-moment play that falls in the complicated vortex of player safety, officiating, mixed messages, evolving rules, hypocrisy and lousy leadership. The NFL doesn't know what it is anymore. For whatever reason, I still love watching it every week. We will get through this. I think.

On to the Week 13 picks …

(HOME TEAMS IN CAPS)

Saints (+3.5) over FALCONS
How did I pick this game wrong while nailing it at the same time? That's the magic of the Skunk of the Week! Every week, the Falcons deal themselves a 4 or a 5, grind out a winning hand and take my chips as I'm thinking, Lucky bastard — next hand, I'm beating you! But a Wantagh, New York, reader named Kevin had an interesting post-Skunk take that I might steal from a handicapping standpoint:

"This might be one of your lazier skunk of the week picks. You aren't seeing the whole NFL landscape right now. Everyone is saying the Falcons haven't beat anybody, and everybody is saying that the Giants have righted the ship after the bye week. So let me tell you exactly what is going to happen the next 3 weeks: (1) the Falcons will beat the Saints and finally be considered the NFC's undisputed best team; (2) RG3 is going to make the Giants look silly, and everyone will be questioning the Giants and people will start jumping on the 'Redskins can still win the division' bandwagon; (3) next week the Giants lose to the Saints at home, and the Falcons crush the Panthers, only reinforcing the narratives; (4) in Week 15, the Giants go to Atlanta to play the Falcons in a game that has 'nobody believes in the Giants anymore' written all over it! That's when the Giants retake control of their own destiny using the exact same narrative they always use. It's all here, and it starts with Atlanta winning tonight, you of all people should see this."

(Let's just say I wish I had gotten that e-mail on Tuesday.)

CHIEFS (+3) over Panthers
Celebrating this epic Ron Rivera/Romeo Crennel checkers match by breaking in a new gambling rule: "Always pick the Chiefs as a home dog during any week when someone from Missouri won half of a $587.5 million Powerball jackpot by possibly picking numbers of his favorite Royals players."

Can you think of a better tipping point for a sports city than this one? By 2020, the Chiefs will have three Super Bowl titles and counting, Wil Myers will be talked about as the best baseball player of his generation, the Kings will have moved back to Kansas City, George Brett will be running for reelection as the President of the United States, the Jayhawks will be a college basketball dynasty, and Mystery Royals Fan/Powerball Winner X will be considered Kansas City's greatest hero. It all starts now. And just for the record, I have never filled out a lottery ticket or a Keno card in my entire life that didn't consist entirely of uniform numbers of my favorite Boston athletes. As Lloyd Christmas would say , "So you're telling me there's a chance … "

(Even if it turned out the numbers were picked at total random and it was just a coincidence that it matched the Royals stars, I don't care — it's still the highlight of the sports year in Kansas City. I'm riding the Chiefs +3! Feel the coincidental momentum!)

Jaguars (+6) over BILLS
True story: This week, I picked up Chad Henne in my East Coast fantasy league AND I'm starting him. And it's not like I'm out of it — I'm 10-2 and totally dominating this league. I just handed the wheels of a fantasy juggernaut to Chad Henne! And I feel great about it! WHAT THE F IS GOING ON?!?!?!?!?!?

BEARS (-4) over Seahawks
I have some sad news: I'm breaking up with the Seahawks. After watching them blow a winnable road game in the fourth quarter for the FIFTH time, enough was enough. Next time I pick a Pete Carroll team as my Super Bowl sleeper, you have permission to hit me with a 12-inch Subway sub. Seriously. It can even be a meatball and cheese. Print out this column, show it to the police, do whatever you need to do. You're off the hook for attemped assault. I told you to do it. Don't let me pick Pete Carroll again. Save me from myself. Meanwhile, a reader named Jerry in Baltimore writes in …

"Reading your Thanksgiving Day picks column gave me an idea for a Sports Guy/SportsCenter commercial: You are giving Russell Wilson a tour of the NBA Countdown studio talking yourself up as all guys do on a first date. As you leave the studio you casually ask Russell if he wants to grab some dinner at a place Magic Johnson recommended to you. Just then 'Baby come back' starts blaring and the camera pans to skinny Josh Freeman holding a boom box and a dozen roses. Then you and Russell awkwardly begin to walk away as Josh is left, sad and alone. Please tell me these types of commercials are already in the works!"

(My readers are insane. Just in case you forgot.)

Colts (+4.5) over LIONS
Brian from San Mateo brings up a great point: "At what point do you tweak your Gambling Manifesto to account for betting on teams whose coach is going through cancer treatment? I know it is a touchy subject and I wish Chuck Pagano a speedy recovery, but the Colts this year are completely unbettable. On any given Sunday you don't know if Pagano is going to show up in the locker room for a pep talk, wave to the fans from the owner's box or not show up at all. It is often a seven point swing in one direction or the other. So what do we do?"

Allow me to echo Brian's thoughts: I own a ChuckStrong T-shirt and would love to see the Colts make the playoffs. It never feels good to pick against them even if the goal of this column is, "Throw out all biases and predict every game as coldly/clinically/intelligently as you possibly can." Last Sunday, I had the Bills getting 3½ in Indy, but as soon as I saw Pagano in the luxury box and those two cheerleaders who shaved their heads, I hated myself for picking Buffalo (and also knew I was going to lose). That makes the Colts off-limits — they defy the traditional measures used to make these picks. So I'm picking the Colts for these last five regular-season weeks, rooting for them and that's that. Buy a ChuckStrong T-shirt already.

Vikings (+8) over PACKERS
TITANS (+6.5) over Texans
RAMS (+7.5) over 49ers
Boy, those are pretty big spreads for three division-rivalry games. I'm grabbing the points and hoping to go 2-1 at worst. Let's break out the mailbag format for some impromptu Niners e-mails.

Q: Is it just me or does this 49ers QB reek of the Patriots situation when Bledsoe was injured and eventually replaced by Brady on a permanent basis?
— Matt, San Francisco

SG: Couldn't agree more. And that was even more polarizing at the time — people mistakenly thought Bledsoe was better than he was (I wasn't one of them), and they just couldn't accept that Brady was a better fit for the specific offense the Patriots had in 2001 (more precision, more dink-and-dunk, more sleight of hand). We never knew Brady was going to become TOM BRADY, but we knew there was something special about him, and that it was probably worth exploring (especially since Bledsoe wasn't really DREW BLEDSOE anymore).

Feels like the same thing is happening here with the Niners. Kaepernick fits the 2012 Niners better because he can throw downfield and make a couple of "WOW!!!!!!" plays every game that they weren't getting with Smith. Long-term, he has a chance to be special — the way he responded in those first two starts certainly allows for that possibility. I thought Harbaugh needlessly risked a possible Super Bowl trip last week by starting Kaepernick again — if only because (as I wrote) you can't juggle QBs just like you can't juggle girlfriends — but clearly, Harbaugh had already determined that Kaepernick was his guy (and Smith was a goner). I look at it this way: If I'm a Falcons/Packers/Giants/Bears fan, I'm a little frightened of Kaepernick in January. And I wasn't frightened of Alex Smith. Same for Brady and Bledsoe 11 years ago. So yeah, I see the parallels.

Q: Whats all this faux-arguing FOR Alex Smith garbage I'm seeing? At different points the guy has lost his job to the likes of Shaun Hill, Troy Smith, and J.T. O'Sullivan. The 49ers are good, but if they get down 2 scores and Alex Smith is playing, the game is f-ing over. Is there anything else that even needs to be said?
— Sea Bass, Atherton, Seoul

SG: Not really. You nailed it. Just remember, if we're following the Brady-Bledsoe playbook, that means Alex Smith will be heard from one more time this season. Bledsoe came off the bench to help the Patriots win the AFC title game in Pittsburgh, something I actually predicted a month earlier right down to the location and the game (one of my creepiest predictions)? That's going to happen with Smith at some point in the playoffs. Has to. It's just the way this stuff works.

Q: Imagine if you were in the theater in 2005 watching Mr. and Ms. Smith and in the corner of the screen during the entire film you saw Jennifer Aniston looking sullen and angry at what had clearly happened between Brad and Angelina during filming. That's what Sunday's 49ers-Saints game felt like. Has there ever been a better celebrity/athlete doppelganger than Alex Smith/Jim Harbaugh and Jennifer Aniston/Brad Pitt? It's intriguing to view Kaepernick as the home-wrecker to Harbaugh and Smith's beloved on-the-field relationship.
— Bob, Dayton, OH

SG: So if Brad and Angelina became Brangelina, then what are Kaepernick and Harbaugh? Kaeperbaugh? Harbernick? Kaepharbaughnick? There's a better pop culture parallel for Alex Smith's demeanor on Sunday — he had the exact same look on his face that every female Bachelor contestant has during the final three episode right after they get voted off. There's no scorned look quite like "I slept with you on the overnight date and now you're voting me off? Really? You realize this show is televised, right?" That's how Alex Smith looked last Sunday.

Patriots (-9) over DOLPHINS
This line seemed a little high until I remembered the whole "New England has scored 190 points in the past four games" thing. Biggest red flag: After Miami, the Pats play home games against Houston (Monday night) and San Francisco … leaving the door open for Belichick to go vanilla in Miami, win the ugliest and most boring game possible (a.k.a. the Milton Berle "pulling out just enough to win" strategy) and save the good stuff for the next two games. Proceed with caution. In other news, I thought this e-mail from Eric in Boston was interesting:

"Two months from now, it's very possible Tom Brady will have 3 NFL MVPs, 6 Super Bowl appearances and 4 rings. Wouldn't that clinch him as the greatest QB of all time? It's just as possible that two months from now, Peyton Manning will have 5 NFL MVPs, 3 Super Bowl appearances, 2 rings (and may have even just beaten his brother in the long-awaited Manning Bowl). That would pretty much lock Peyton up as the greatest QB of all time, wouldn't it? Has there ever been another season where the Greatest of All Time title was up for grabs like this? For any position? In any sport?"

For one thing, it's neat that we're even here after what Manning went through these past 18 months. When I wrote about the Manning-Brady rivalry in January of 2011, right before the playoffs, their unofficial championship belt was seemingly hinging on the events of that month … and within a year, suddenly it seemed like Brady had a chance to grab the belt without any resistance from Manning. Now it's an argument again. I'd disagree with Eric on one point: We're not even close to resolving it. Quarterbacks are like NBA players — we don't have any idea how long their careers will last anymore (especially now that all these rules are in place to protect their safety). Could Brady play until he's … 42? Forty-three? Who knows? Could Kobe Bryant score 40,000 points? Who knows? I'm prepared for anything this decade.

Anyway, I don't think Brady or Manning can clinch anything yet other than the "Who did the best job of antagonizing his loyal fans by wearing hats of hated baseball teams and appearing in commercials that would have earned real scorn had it been anyone else?" (Brady clinched this years ago) and "Whose forehead can turn the reddest when he wears his helmet too long?" battle (Manning clinched this during this first game).

JETS (-4.5) over Cardinals
Try to pick this game simply working off these two e-mails.

E-mail no. 1: Whatever the line is, bet the Jets this week. Here's Arizona left guard Daryn Colledge talking about the injury to starting center Lyle Sendlein: "Without him," Colledge said, "the wheels just might come off." The wheels might come off? They've been off for weeks. This offensive line, already starting rookies at both tackle spots, can get worse? Oh no.
— Solon, India

E-mail no. 2: It's the day after Thanksgiving, pretty quiet in the office, so our secretary decided to bring her 6-year-old daughter in for the day. A bunch of us are gathered around one of the guys' desk watching the highlights from last night's Pats-Jets game, and her daughter sneaks up next to us to see what's going on. She instantly recognizes what we are watching, her eyes light up, and excitedly she says, "Oh yeah, I saw this! The guy who ran into the butt!" Amazing. As a Boston sports fan, I don't know what makes me happier: That a 6-year-old, in the earliest stages of her exposure to football, now knows the quarterback of the New York Jets as 'The Guy Who Ran Into The Butt;' or the fact that I now have a great new way to refer to Mark Sanchez.
— Kevin A., Boston


MIKE PHILBRICK/GRANTLAND
See, even SportsCenter knows what it's called.

(Thinking … )

(Still thinking … )

(Can you really pick Ryan Lindley Playing With His Normal Ribs or Kevin Kolb With Injured Ribs, on the road, when they're playing without both starting tackles and their starting center? I say no.)

Bucs (+7) over BRONCOS
Bengals (-1.5) over CHARGERS
I still believe in the Bucs … and whatever the opposite of the word "believe" is, that's how I feel about Norv Turner's Chargers. (Disbelieve? Unbelieve? Debelieve?) Speaking of San Diego, I enjoyed this e-mail from a Chargers fan named Rob:

"I get so tired of all the 'God Hates Cleveland' whining. Please, just take a look at the history of San Diego sports: Our only championship since 1962 is by something called the "Sockers" … Norv Turner … two World Series trips that happened to be against two all-time great teams (the '84 Tigers and the '98 Yankees) … lost the Rockets AND Clippers … best NFL team in 1979 (then Bum Phillips figured out the semaphore system for calling plays in to Fouts) … best NFL team in 1981 (then they went to Cincy where it was like 55 below) … Norv Turner … finally scrape into the Super Bowl in 1994 (the '94 Niners were waiting, really?) … Tony Gwynn stays loyal, never gets a ring, then gets cancer … Norv Turner … the weather … (Oh, right. Maybe God does hate Cleveland more.)"

Browns (+2.5) over RAIDERS
Things are looking up for Browns fans! Brandon Weeden has the two worst QBR performances of the season by a winning QB. They're undefeated anytime they can force eight turnovers against a team that's also starting a 38-year-old third-string QB. They get to play an imploding Raiders team that's lost its last four games by 100 combined points. Pat Shurmur went a whole week without pooping in the fridge or eating a wheel of cheese. And as a Clifton Park reader named Evan Lipinski points out, "Wouldn't you agree that Cleveland's greatest sports accomplishment since the Jim Brown era was losing their NHL franchise after just two years in the late '70s? A city with such dismal sports luck somehow managed to avoid the worst era in professional sports: The Gary Bettman Era." See, it could have been worse, Cleveland.

RAVENS (-4) over Steelers
In honor of Nate Silver's B.S. Report appearance this week, here's some simple math for you:

• The Ravens are 33-5 at home (including playoffs) since John Harbaugh became their head coach.

• The Ravens are 4-9 against Pittsburgh in Ben Roethisberger starts.

• The Ravens are 5-0 against Pittsburgh if an injured Roethlisberger is watching from the sideline.

• I don't know what the Ravens' record will be in games when a clearly injured Roethlisberger tries to play two weeks earlier than doctors recommended while wearing a giant flak jacket to cover the dislocated rib that nearly punctured his aorta, but my guess is that we're headed for 1-0. With that said, we can't take the Ravens off the hook here. St. Louis reader Matt Chick explains:

"The Ravens have somehow been 'out-sucked' this year by the following: Tony Romo/Jason Garrett; Norv Turner; Pat Shurmur/the entire history of the Browns and the city of Cleveland (twice!); Romeo Crennel/Matt Cassel; Byron Leftwich (with broken ribs no less); and this week, they're about to be out-sucked by Charlie Batch — who sucked when he was 27, but is somehow still in the league sucking at 37. There's no one in the league with more fraudulent wins this year. It's really unbelievable. Who drew up this schedule? They have literally every terrible coach in the NFL on it: Garrett, Reid, Shurmur, Turner, Crennel, Shanahan. They should complain to the league office about not getting a game against Ron Rivera's Panthers."

That got me thinking … how crazy would an Atlanta-Baltimore Super Bowl be? And what would happen in that game? How could both teams execute the "I'm going to let you hang around and eventually cobble together just enough decent football to eke out a victory that leaves our fans simultaneously excited and unimpressed" game plan to perfection when they're playing each other? Would we be headed for multiple overtimes? Would the game just keep going indefinitely while one team waited for the other team to screw up and gift-wrap them a win? Would we be sitting there for two or three days? If we get a Falcons-Ravens Super Bowl, I'm changing my travel plans to leave on the Wednesday after the game just to be safe.

Eagles (+10) over COWBOYS
The Cowboys shouldn't be favored by seven points over anyone; 10 points is so idiotic that I can't even see straight. Ten points? Have you watched the Cowboys???? Plus, the Eagles are 1-9-1 against the spread right now … you really think they're going 1-14-1? Come on. Grab the 10 and thank me later.

Speaking of the Eagles, roughly 10,000 readers e-mailed me during last week's Packers-Giants game wondering if a now-mustachioed and seemingly heavier Mike McCarthy had finally completed his transformation into Andy Reid, pointing to their physical similarities, Green Bay's lack of a running game and shoddy offensive line, Green Bay's erratic season and the clock management issues that plagued Reid over the years. There's a scene in The World According to Garp (on my all-time "most underrated movie" list) when Garp tells his mother (played by Glenn Close) that they're naming his new child "Jenny" after her, and she smiles and blesses it by saying, "I've been Jenny long enough." That's where we are during the final days of Andy Reid, right? He's been Andy Reid long enough. We needed a new one. I fully support McCarthy's creepy transformation into Andy.

REDSKINS (+3) over Giants
Four points on Robert Griffin III and then we're done …

1. I never liked St. Louis's decision to trade the no. 2 pick for two more first-rounders and a second-rounder, if only because "It would be harder cap-wise to trade Sam Bradford" just wasn't an acceptable enough reason for me. They owed Bradford $48 million over the next four years; Griffin's no. 2 draft spot yielded $21.1 million over four years (a bargain), so even if Bradford's $14 million cap hold counted against them this season, add everything up and it's still a bargain to have Griffin because of that new rookie salary cap (especially if he became a star, which he did). Besides, the Rams weren't going anywhere this season — it's not like they needed that extra cap room to contend. And it's hard for me to believe that Kansas City or Cleveland wouldn't have ponied up a pick for Bradford. I'm just not buying the spin. I think the Rams liked Bradford, they wanted to rebuild around Griffin's trade package, and they never expected him to be this good. So they basically dealt him for Danilo Gallinari, Wilson Chandler, Timofey Mozgov and a late first-round pick. Congratulations. You missed out on someone with a chance to become the league's most exciting player who got there by Thanksgiving of his rookie season. But at least you got two extra first-rounders and a second-rounder out of it!

2. A New Orleans reader named Hass wonders, "At what point in the season does Kim Kardashian ask around for RG3's cell phone number?" You're looking at it. We're here.

3. This is a strong statement, but screw it, I'm making it: Chicago fans love Derrick Rose more than any other city loves any player. They hold the title and it's not changing. Just know that RG3 has an excellent chance to grab the no. 2 spot on that totem pole, and that it could happen sooner than you think. The Washington fans are out of their minds about this guy — it's the perfect blend of "right guy," "right city," "right point he's hitting the city," and, of course, "right level of holyshitness" from week to week. For years and years and years, Washington sports fans desperately needed their guy. And now? They have their guy. I can't think of a better city for Griffin. I really can't.

4. I realized during RG3's Thanksgiving Day massacre in Dallas that he's already reached Barry Sanders Memorial "Don't Bet Against Me Under Any Circumstances" status. He's just terrifying. And in a wholly different way than, say, Manning, Rodgers or Brady. Those guys beat you methodically. You can't rest during any Griffin play, not even when he's on his own 20. And when he takes off, it's a five-second heart attack. He's just more fun to have on YOUR side. Those are the guys we always end up remembering. And that's why wild horses couldn't drag me away from the TV on Monday night.

This Week: 0-1
Last Week: 9-6-1
Season: 92-81-4
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