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Last Updated: 1:35 PM GMT on July 03, 2008 — Last Comment: 7:04 PM GMT on July 05, 2008
Severe storms possible today
 
Posted by: sullivanweather, 1:35 PM GMT on July 03, 2008
Storm reports last 72 hours. Click on map to view individual reports.


storm reports




Northern New England storm reports


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Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings

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Regional Forecast


Synopsis - Issued 7/3 - 9:35am


A cold front will sag through the Northeast today bringing showers and thunderstorms to the region, some of which may be severe. This frontal boundary will stall along the Mason-Dixon line Friday, then slowly return northward as a warm front during the holiday weekend bringing chances for more showers and thunderstorms, especially across the southern half of the region. Weak ridging builds in from the west Monday and early Tuesday as much of the concentrated showers/storms move into New England with isolated diurnal activity elsewhere. Another trough approaches for Tuesday night and Wednesday bringing more widespread precipitation once again.



Short-term - Issued 7/3 - 9:35am



Clouds and showers along and ahead of a cold front extends over much of the northwestern half of the Northeast this morning, with mainly clear skies to the southeast. At the time of this writing, thicker cloud cover lines up from Altoona, PA to Glens Falls, NY to Caribou, ME. To the south and east of this line enough insolation will occur to modestly destabilize the atmosphere. Temperatures here should warm into the 80's by afternoon but dewpoints will only be in the upper 50's, rising into the lower 60's with moisture pooling ahead of the front. By afternoon mlCAPE rises to 600-1,200 J/kg with muCAPE values approaching 1,500J/kg. Mid-level lapse rates are a paltry 6C/km so the thermodynamic set-up for severe weather is marginal, at best. The best dynamics ride by to the northwest into Canada as well, however, the wind field aloft is still strong. Unidirectional flow from the southwest with a 25-35kt low-level jet, increasing to 40-50kt @700mb and 50-65kt @500mb. Storms will be capable of severe wind gusts as convection mixes these wind down to the surface. Bulk shear of from south to north 30-40kts will organize storms into bowing line segments. Triggers for convection will be forcing along the frontal boundary, a MCV moving out of the Ohio Valley. In fact, a more organized line of convection may form ahead of this MCV as it moves through Pennsylvania this afternoon. To the north, more stratiform precipitation should fall, although there could be an embedded thundershower, before the front clears the region and drier air advects south from Canada. With clouds and precipitation, temperatures here shouldn't rise much from this mornings temperatures as most locales remain in the mid 60's to lower 70's.

Convection continues into this evening, but will be in a weakening phase. Precipitation should continue throughout the overnight from eastern Pennsylvania into southern New England as showers and a few embedded thundershowers. Otherwise expect clearing skies from the north as dry air continues to advance south behind the front. Temperatures will fall back into the 40's over the higher terrain of northern New York and New England! Elsewhere across the interior temperatures will settle into the 50's and 60's from north to south with temperatures holding into the 70's along the southern coastal plain.

Rest of forecast to come later


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Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar


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Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.



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June Daily Weather Statistics


June 1st - 71°F/51°F.....0.00"....30%
June 2nd - 73°F/50°F.....0.00"....70%
June 3rd - 77°F/46°F.....0.05"....70%
June 4th - 66°F/54°F.....0.28".....5%
June 5th - 69°F/56°F.....0.00"....25%
June 6th - 69°F/55°F.....0.16"....10%
June 7th - 88°F/63°F.....Trace....60%
June 8th - 85°F/63°F.....0.34"....50%
June 9th - 94°F/65°F.....0.00"....95%
June 10th - 94°F/67°F....0.98"....70%
June 11th - 78°F/59°F....Trace....90%
June 12th - 78°F/55°F....0.00"...100%
June 13th - 83°F/51°F....0.00"....95%
June 14th - 84°F/61°F....0.35"....40%
June 15th - 80°F/64°F....0.03"....70%
June 16th - 81°F/57°F....0.65"....50%
June 17th - 66°F/53°F....0.34"....20%
June 18th - 59°F/46°F....0.23"....10%
June 19th - 66°F/45°F....0.03"....30%
June 20th - 69°F/48°F....0.14"....30%
June 21st - 79°F/47°F....Trace....70%
June 22nd - 73°F/55°F....0.67"....50%
June 23rd - 77°F/57°F....0.46"....60%
June 24th - 73°F/57°F....0.12"....30%
June 25th - 78°F/50°F....0.00"....80%
June 26th - 75°F/59°F....0.08"....20%
June 27th - 75°F/61°F....0.06"....40%
June 28th - 84°F/61°F....0.13"....50%
June 29th - 78°F/63°F....0.72"....40%
June 30th - 75°F/59°F....0.03"....70%




July Daily Weather Statistics


July 1st - 75°F/55°F.....Trace....60%
July 2nd - 80°F/54°F.....0.00"....90%

View Comments (53)

Permalink
 
 
Upper trough persists
 
Posted by: sullivanweather, 9:21 AM GMT on July 01, 2008
Storm reports last 72 hours. Click on map to view individual reports.___________________________________________________________Current watches, warnings and advisories.------Regional ForecastSynopsis - Issued 7/1 - 5:25amAn upper trough will slowly lift through the Northeast and fill over the next couple days. Showers and thunderstorms have occurred along the trough axis with this feature each afternoon and should continue today. Building heights on Wednesday will ...

View Comments (39)

Updated: 9:49 AM GMT on July 01, 2008 Permalink
 
 
Severe possibilities.
 
Posted by: sullivanweather, 9:12 AM EDT on June 29, 2008
Storm reports last 72 hours. Click on map to view individual reports.___________________________________________________________Current watches, warnings and advisories.------Regional ForecastClouds cover a good portion of the Northeast this morning with scattered showers and thundershowers across New Hampshire and western Maine. Another area of mainly light showers extends from central Pennsylvania northeastwards into south-central New York then up towards the sout...

View Comments (57)

Updated: 2:35 PM GMT on June 30, 2008   Permalink
 
 
The beat goes on...
 
Posted by: sullivanweather, 7:53 AM EDT on June 27, 2008
Storm reports last 72 hours. Click on map to view individual reports.___________________________________________________________Current watches, warnings and advisories.------Regional ForecastLight showers are widely scattered across Pennsylvania early this Friday morning while most locales elsewhere across the Northeast see a mostly cloudy start. Severe possibilities today are from central Pennsylvania and south-central New York eastward to southern New England as ...

View Comments (42)

Updated: 3:03 PM GMT on June 28, 2008   Permalink
 
 
Widely scattered storms today/drier tomorrow
 
Posted by: sullivanweather, 6:52 AM EDT on June 24, 2008
Storm reports last 72 hours. Click on map to view individual reports.___________________________________________________________Current watches, warnings and advisories.------Regional ForecastSynopsis - Issued 6/24 - 7:00amAn upper trough axis will swing through the Northeast today bringing diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms with the greatest concentration over southern New England. Ridging in the lower and middle layers of the atmosphere builds over the reg...

View Comments (37)

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About sullivanweather:
sullivanweather Thomas is an avid weather enthusiast, landscaper and organic gardener. This blog is dedicated to Northeast and tropical weather forecasting. Enjoy!
 
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