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Last Updated: 7:57 PM GMT on November 16, 2009
— Last Comment: 2:14 AM GMT on November 22, 2009
Current watches, warnings and advisories.
 Fig.2 - Current watches, warning and advisories issued by the National Weather Service. Courtesy of NOAA. -------- Forecast Discussion Synopsis - Issued 11/16/09 @2:50pm A weak backdoor cold front will glide through the Northeast over the next 24 hours with strong high pressure quickly building in its wake. Temperatures will cool from their recent very mild readings but will remain slightly above normal. Thursday and Friday precipitation chances increase once again as a cut-off low over the Midwest opens to a trough that should graze the region. By the weekend signs of a pattern change begin to emerge with several digging shortwave disturbances carve out a trough over the center of the nation which should lead to a more active pattern as we head into Thanksgiving week. Near-term - Issued 11/16/09 @2:50pm A glorious afternoon is shaping up for most locales across the Northeast this Monday with mostly sunny skies abound and mild temperatures running 10 degrees or more above normal. There are a few exceptions around the peripheries of the region with northern Maine coming under a stratocumulus deck behind the backdoor front. There’s also been an increase in clouds over northwestern Pennsylvania and the Niagara Frontier of New York as some moisture streaks out along the jet stream cutting across the region. Where these clouds are present temperatures are running closer to normal. Short-term - Issued - 11/16/09 @2:50pm The backdoor front will continue its push through the region tonight with little fanfare. There may be a slight increase in mid/high level cloudiness across the region coinciding with the passage of the front but with high pressure nosing down from the northern Great Lakes region and a much drier airmass moving in behind the front these clouds should give way to clearing skies, providing a wonderful opportunity to catch the Leonid meteor shower tonight. The clear skies and dry airmass will also make for ideal radiational cooling conditions and a large diurnal swing in temperatures tonight. Lows will dip down into 20’s tonight for much of the northern interior with teens likely across the higher terrain. Further south a bit more clouds and a milder airmass will keep temperatures a few notches higher during the overnight with interior locales falling into the 30’s and coastal/urban areas remaining in the low to mid 40’s, although the pine barren regions of South Jersey and Long Island should drop close to freezing. High pressure will hold firm over the Northeast both Tuesday and Wednesday, providing plenty of sunshine and mild temperatures during the day. A great stretch of weather to finish up any outside work before winter sets in. High temperatures should continue to average some 5-15 degrees above normal, with the warmer day of the two being Wednesday. This translates into highs reaching into the 50’s across the southern half of the region with a few 60°F readings possible along the coastal plain. To the north 40’s to low 50’s should be where temperatures find themselves during the afternoon hours. The clear skies, calm winds and dry airmass with also make for a continuation of ideal radiational cooling at night. Temperatures should have no trouble dropping some 25-30 degrees from daily max to daily min through Wednesday night. Lows will range from the teens and 20’s across the interior to the 30’s to low 40’s down along the coastal plain. An increase in clouds from the west may keep western New York and Pennsylvania a bit milder by Wednesday night. Mid-term - Issued - 11/16/09 @2:50pm High pressure moves offshore early on Thursday as the upper level cut-off over the Midwest finally starts to make some progress off to the northeast. The track of this low should take it across the central Great Lakes region during the day on Thursday and across southern Quebec during the day on Friday, with the bulk of the energy/dynamics with this system remaining northwest of the region. Being on the mild southeastern side of the low the region should see mainly liquid precipitation from this system, although a few pockets of freezing rain cannot be ruled out across the normally colder locales of northern New England early in the day on Friday. The highest precipitation amounts with this system should be confined to the region around the international border, with a half to three quarters of an inch expected. Further south the precipitation should be much more showery with generally under a quarter inch expected. Temperatures will continue to run above average for mid to late November with daily max temperatures running close to normal but overnight lows running several degrees above normal with insulating cloud cover. Long-term - Issued - 11/16/09 @2:50pm A second shortwave trough will quickly follow on the heels of the slow moving upper level system during the end of the week and the start of the weekend. With the region remaining in a very mild airmass another rainstorm is expected as the system travels up the Eastern Seaboard/Appalachians. A bit more moisture will be involved with the passage of this second system over the weekend and rainfall amounts could add up to over an inch. With deep-layer ridging remaining in place over the Western Atlantic and a Pacific airmass entrenched over much of the country, more mild weather is expected in the wake of the weekend system with temperatures to begin next week still averaging 5-10 degrees above normal. However, with the polar jet anticipated to return south over the course of Thanksgiving week, continental air will eventually bleed south from Canada into the U.S. and a decided turn towards more wintry weather countrywide should ensue to close out the month. ___________________________________________________________ Radar: Northeast Region Loop Fig.4 - Radar loop of the Northeast region. Courtesy of Weather Underground. ___________________________________________________________ Local SST's  Fig.5 - Sea-surface temperatures off the Northeast Coast. Courtesy of NOAA. ___________________________________________________________ All hits. Unique hits.  My weather dragon!
strong>Current watches, warnings and advisories.Fig.2 - Current watches, warning and advisories issued by the National Weather Service. Courtesy of NOAA.--------Forecast DiscussionSynopsis - Issued 11/06/09 @2:50pmHigh pressure will crest over the Northeast tonight delivering the coldest night of the season thus far for several locales. As the high moves offshore to begin the weekend a moderating trend will ensue that should bring temperatures back above normal read...
Previous blog - October 2009, coldest on record? may be reposted after this week's wild weather. After this weekend temperatures across the country may moderate for several days which would put breaking the record likely out of reach. Until then I will keep an updated month-to-date anomaly chart here at the top of the blog.Fig.1 - Month-to-date temperature anomalies for October 2009. (Credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center)Current watches, warnings and advisories.Fi...
Previous blog - October 2009, coldest on record? may be reposted after this week's wild weather. After this weekend temperatures across the country may moderate for several days which would put breaking the record likely out of reach. Until then I will keep an updated month-to-date anomaly chart here at the top of the blog.Fig.1 - Month-to-date temperature anomalies for October 2009. (Credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center)Current watches, warnings and advisories.Fi...
For 95% of the contiguous United States the first 5 days of October has started below normal, with about half the country decidedly so, running 5-12 degrees subpar. For much of the Western US and Northern Plains this is a marked change from the month of September when temperatures ran 4-8 degrees above normal for the month. Several locations even recorded their warmest or second warmest September on record. The reason for the record warmth was an anomalously strong ...
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