Cold and snowy week ahead.

By: sullivanweather , 8:38 AM GMT on February 24, 2008

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Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings

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___________________________________________________________

Regional Forecast


Quiet weather for much of the Northeast over the next 36-48 hours. The next system of interest will approach from the Ohio Valley on Monday night and Tuesday spreading snow across the north with a wintry mix or rain to the south. Much colder air floods into the Northeast following this system on Wednesday bringing a round of lake effect snow lasting into Thursday. High pressure will briefly build into the region Thursday night before giving way to a rather potent clipper system for Friday and Saturday. Cold sticks around for the remainder of next weekend with the possibility of a moderating trend beginning early the following week.

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A few renegade lake clouds and snow showers reside over central New York State this Sunday morning, otherwise most locations throughout the Northeast are mostly clear and will continue to be so for the remainder of the day. The higher sun angle and longer days are beginning to have a noticeable impact on daily maxes with most locations along the coastal plain approaching 40°F despite a chilly start and a modest snowcover. Across the interior temperatures will climb into the low to mid 30 with 20's over the higher terrain.


Mostly clear skies, light winds and snowcover should allow for ideal radiational cooling conditions tonight over a vast majority of the region. Temperatures will plummet after dusk and level off around midnight. Lows along the coastal plain will fall to the upper teens to low 20's. The should see teens and single number easily reached with sheltered valleys across the higher terrain of northern New York and New England falling below zero.


The benign weather continues on Monday as a surface ridge axis will bisect the Northeast. By late afternoon a weak cold frontal boundary could bring an increase in high cloudiness to the northern extremities of the region, otherwise it will be a fair day with temperatures running close to average for late February. High's will reach into the low to mid 40's along the coastal plain with upper 30's to near 40°F across the southern interior. Across the north temperatures will top out in the low to mid 30's, although the higher terrain will likely remain below freezing.

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The Monday night through Wednesday forecast remains extremely tricky at this point in time, so will skip on the finer details in this post and save those for the next once the storm comes within range of the HiRes models. In a nutshell, a rather vigourous low pressure will be crashing ashore the Pacific Coast this afternoon. The surface low will be lost in translation in its trek across the Rocky's over the next 18-24 hours, however the potent upper level pocket of energy will emerge in the Central Plains Monday morning with a surface reflection developing over Kansas. This low pressure will track across the Mid-Mississippi Valley and up the Ohio River briskly Monday afternoon and Monday evening. This low pressure will then move across the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, through southeast New York and interior Southern New England on Tuesday slowing and intensifying as it does so before moving off into the Gulf of Maine Tuesday night as a ~980mb low. In terms of sensible weather expect clouds to quickly race into the region Monday night with precipitaion entering western sections after midnight. The rain/snow line appears to setup along the I-80 corridor with areas to the north seeing an inch or so of accumulation by daybreak. To the south of I-80 there may be a few pockets of freezing rain, but due to the lack of a cold airmass ahead of this system precipitation type appears to be a simple rain or snow scenario, so rain is to be expected. Precipitation spreads its way across the rest of the Northeast during the day on Tuesday with a slow northward advance of the rain/snow line as the day progresses, most likely reaching near the NY/PA border and on eastwards to along the Mass Pike by afternoon. Where precipitation remains all snow a significant accumulation can be expected. Within the transition zone a nearly isotermal atmospheric profile is evident so precipitation type will likely be determined by elevation and mesoscale features within the storm that are impossible to resolve this far in advance. To the south mainly rain is expected. As the storm pulls offshore Tuesday evening and colder air becomes entrained into the backside of the system expect most areas to change back over to snow. There's some indications of a decent deformation axis setting up across upstate New York which could bring a second round of heavy snowfall to this region. Across northern New England the show will just be getting started with snow across the interior picking up in intensity as the night progresses with coastal areas seeing mainly a soaking rain. It should be noted that a slight deviation in track could shift the transition zone north or south from this preliminary judgement. Low pressure wraps up over the Canadian Martimes on Wednesday with all areas across the Northeast seeing just snow as the precipitation type. Heavier snow will persist over northern New England with wrap around snow showers scattered throughout the rest of the region. As arctic air pours down from Canada the lake effect machine will become active once again with several more inches of accumulation in the favored snowbelts on a northwesterly flow regime.

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Snowfall - February 26-27th


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Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar

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Current Northeast Snowcover

Northeast Snowcover


MODIS Rapid Response satellite photo of Northeast snow cover (12/06/2007)


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Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.

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Great Lakes SST's 2/17/2008

Great Lakes SST's as of 02/17/2008.

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Fillipini's Pond conditions (Lake across street)

11/6: 42°F
11/9: 37°F
11/11: 33°F - 1st morning with grease ice on lake.
11/17: 33°F
11/22: 34°F
11/24: 32°F - patchy ice on lake this morning
11/25: 32°F - lake iced over completely, melting along the shores during the afternoon.
12/1: Patchy ice has been on the lake all week. Lake should freeeze over completely tonight.
12/3: Lake is frozen over and covered with snow. Thickness measurements starting soon.

___________________________________________________________


February Daily Weather Statistics

February 1st - 33°F/22°F....1.13"....0%...0.9"...(1")
February 2nd - 35°F/29°F....Trace....0%...Trace..(2")
February 3rd - 38°F/23°F....0.00"....60%..0.0"...(2")
February 4th - 31°F/24°F....0.04"....0%...0.2"...(2")
February 5th - 43°F/31°F....0.52"....5%...0.0"...(2")
February 6th - 48°F/32°F....1.08"....0%...0.0"...(1")
February 7th - 41°F/24°F....0.36"....30%..0.1"...(1")
February 8th - 34°F/20°F....Trace....30%..Trace..(1")
February 9th - 33°F/25°F....0.22"....0%...2.5"...(1")
February 10th - 33°F/2°F....0.13"....40%..2.4"...(3")
February 11th - 17°F/-1°F...Trace....90%..Trace..(4")
February 12th - 17°F/1°F....0.44"....10%..4.2"...(4")
February 13th - 34°F/17°F...1.68"....0%...0.5"...(7")
February 14th - 29°F/19°F...Trace....60%..Trace..(5")
February 15th - 37°F/17°F...0.06"....30%..0.3"...(5")
February 16th - 25°F/10°F...Trace....50%..Trace..(5")
February 17th - 37°F/9°F....0.35"....0%...0.1"...(5")
February 18th - 54°F/30°F...0.48"....10%..Trace..(4")
February 19th - 32°F/16°F...0.01"....50%..0.2"...(2")
February 20th - 26°F/11°F...Trace....70%..Trace..(2")
February 21st - 25°F/10°F...0.00"....50%..0.0"...(2")
February 22nd - 25°F/18°F...0.85"....0%..10.5"...(4")
February 23rd - 28°F/16°F...0.06"....10%..0.8"...(12")
February 24th - 34°F/9°F....Trace....50%..Trace..(11")
February 25th - 39°F/10°F...0.00"....70%..0.0"...(8")
February 26th - 33°F/21°F...0.96"....0%...7.1"...(7")





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291. Spetrm
5:16 PM GMT on February 28, 2008
I still havent ate breakfast yet, But i've had about 6 cups of coffe, so thats really in my belly and making me want food even more.

Check out this model. Its lift. I guess the plus side theres not much convection with this clipper. So the biggest affect will probaly be from the lake. Nam is giving me hit or miss on snow fall models. Piece of crap!

O and use a rubber hammer to remove the ice. Works like a charm if you want to get dirty.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 409 Comments: 9857
290. sullivanweather
5:08 PM GMT on February 28, 2008
LOL!!

Hey Rob!!

Nah, just paying through the teeth for some car repairs. Who woulda thunk it. 90 bucks to get some ice taken out from the bottom of the car?

Then again, we have been getting TONS of snow lately without much time for it to melt inbetween storms.

I'll be updating over the next hour or so probably. Still need to look at the models are everything. I glanced at them this morning before we left but didn't really have enough time to write anything out. I was more concerned about getting breakfast in the gullet...lol
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
289. Spetrm
5:04 PM GMT on February 28, 2008
Holy crap nevermind there he is! LOL So sully why are not talking about the clipper today then. Don't think much of it?
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 409 Comments: 9857
288. Spetrm
5:03 PM GMT on February 28, 2008
Looks like a heavy clipper tomorrow and saturday morning. Lost of lake snow west of michigan, erie and ontario. Then once ya'll recover a second shot on monday. Have fun! Florida will be in the 80s by sunday. LOL

O and wheres sully! Our super northeast weather forecaster is missing!?
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 409 Comments: 9857
287. sullivanweather
4:58 PM GMT on February 28, 2008
Hey everyone!!

I'm doing fine...lol

I just had to get to bed early last night because I had to bring my car in for an 8am appointment this morning. The car was driving awfully weird and we wanted it looked at.

As it turns out we had over 20lbs of ice stuck up in it's undercarriage and we needed new brakes.

I was planning on writing a post while I was down at the shop since they have ethernet connection down there, but apparently vista doesn't work with their system. At least that's what the Honda people told us. Does vista work with anything? So we sat in the waiting room and watch the president 'gracefully' explain what congress needs to get certain things done. I think I may have pissed some people off in there.

You know how when you try holding back laughter and it only makes everything more funny to the point where you just burst out laughing? Well, needless to say, I was most likely making a fool of myslef bursting out laughing at the president while he was talking on the television and all these people were sitting behind me trying to hear what he was trying to say. Thankfully, our car had just gotten done. Otherwise I would have probably been murdered by an angry mob of republicans.

So I'm here and will be working on a post over the next hour or so.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
286. NumberWise
4:29 PM GMT on February 28, 2008
Hmmm. I hope Sully hasn't had a relapse from that flu bug. He sounded quite sick for a few days. Has anyone heard from him?
Member Since: October 22, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1700
285. listenerVT
6:27 AM GMT on February 28, 2008
Well, HeavySnow...
I got 10" of snow to play in,
but I'd rather be playing with a warm little newborn
so I'm envious of YOU!
Congrats on a sweet Day Two (and Three..) ♥
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5500
284. HeavySnow
4:48 AM GMT on February 28, 2008
Thanks all for last night congrats on my new baby girl. She is just as beautiful if not more so on her 2nd day. We at least got a couple of flurries today to welcome her properly. But she needed a whiteout like I got to read about here. Thanks for the descriptions you lucky snow lovers. If I weren't so happy for me I'd be really jealous. Okay, I AM really jealous.
Member Since: July 7, 2004 Posts: 18 Comments: 2989
283. listenerVT
4:09 AM GMT on February 28, 2008
Bet he would have preferred to do it with one hand tied behind his back...(instead of with flu). Ha!
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5500
282. listenerVT
4:08 AM GMT on February 28, 2008
Y'know what impresses me most?
Sulli made his accurate prediction, three days before the storm,
and that while getting over the mean flu!
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5500
281. TheShovler3
3:57 AM GMT on February 28, 2008
Cchamp what did you get as for snow today. i got 1.2" so far still lightly falling.
Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2579
280. dean2007
3:47 AM GMT on February 28, 2008
cchamp it looks like rain. For the clipper looks like mainly a mix to rain event for southern most areas. Something off the coast tonight. Maybe a dusting of snow on the coast for MA.
279. cchamp6
12:39 AM GMT on February 28, 2008
Sully,

Where the heck have you been? You get big snow last evening and disappear!

It is 7:30 pm and it has been snow lightly for a couple of hours. Temp. is 23. The ground is starting to cover up. Kind of breezy out of the northeast up to 20 mph.

Looks like some snow on friday night/sat. Locals saying 2-4 range maybe.

Whats up for next week? Snow or rain?
Member Since: December 21, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 1641
278. listenerVT
11:52 PM GMT on February 27, 2008
Also, wondering if anyone can explain what was going on that made the locals here keep increasing the projected snow totals, when they were at or less than originally predicted.

Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5500
277. listenerVT
11:25 PM GMT on February 27, 2008
You were, as usual, spot-on, Sulli!

We got 10 inches of snow here.
Funny, but we never got the big wind.
Any idea why?
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5500
276. cchamp6
10:59 PM GMT on February 27, 2008
Sully, where are ya? Still digging out I hope. I was looking at the watervapor loop and noticed all of that storminess off the coast- I assume it is a front that looks to be hanging out there. What do we need to get a storm going there and back into us?
Member Since: December 21, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 1641
275. TheShovler3
10:17 PM GMT on February 27, 2008
.5" snow sofar today with a nice little band working through. maybe i'll pick up an inch
Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2579
274. Fshhead
8:34 PM GMT on February 27, 2008
Hey Sully,
Nice cool shot here Bro' Its around 60° here with a pretty good breeze. The cloudcover is still over us right now. Gonna be a "cold" night for us when those clouds clear!!!!
Member Since: November 19, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 9960
273. MDFirefighter
5:44 PM GMT on February 27, 2008
Someone please explain to me how I'm getting rain out of this...???







Everything I've looked at on the GFS has the 540 line WELL to the South of Baltimore....yet all the locals & NWS are calling for rain? What gives? Especially with the bulk of the precip predicted to be here between 1900 & 0100?
Member Since: February 11, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 1201
272. dean2007
2:54 PM GMT on February 27, 2008
Thoughts on the clipper sully?
271. BANGORWALKER
1:49 PM GMT on February 27, 2008
Well I'm off to move the stuff. It's gonna be wet and heavy. I haven't had to fire up the machine in over 6 weeks, I shovel anything 5" and under...

Have a great day all :)
Member Since: January 17, 2006 Posts: 18 Comments: 3382
270. BANGORWALKER
1:36 PM GMT on February 27, 2008
It's done for me I'm at 31ºF and overcast. They didn't even cancel school.

The spotters and coops are starting to report in. Your 1-4 along the coast is right on also. Very well done calling this one 3 days in advance!
Member Since: January 17, 2006 Posts: 18 Comments: 3382
269. sullivanweather
1:30 PM GMT on February 27, 2008
Walker,

I think this was one of my best storms of the year, bar none.

For all the model discrepancies, NWS confusions, the list here can go on and on, I think I really did nail it. The rain/snow line and everything. I even made the map on Monday afternoon, so there was even lead time to it.

I'm impressed with myself, even...lol
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
268. BANGORWALKER
1:25 PM GMT on February 27, 2008
usda has me at 6.2" for the storm so it's a done deal 3.9" so far today.

You nailed this one for Maine. Look how thin that blue line of 5-9 inches is and it's dead on accurate from some of the totals I have so far. And yes they got 8-12 just North of me, and yes there are some reports of 12+ where you called it!

Great job!
Member Since: January 17, 2006 Posts: 18 Comments: 3382
267. sullivanweather
1:08 PM GMT on February 27, 2008
You still have much of the day left to get that extra 0.5"

I'm sure you'll get caught in some wrap around before the day closes out.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
266. BANGORWALKER
1:01 PM GMT on February 27, 2008
Sully--

It's going to be close for the 3.5" record. I got 2.3" before midnight so that has to go on the 26th. I had inch an hour rate from midnight-3AM, then lighter and mixed with frz. rain. I measured 5.5" at 7AM so now it's just wait and see what the "official" reporting station says...
Member Since: January 17, 2006 Posts: 18 Comments: 3382
265. MDFirefighter
12:45 PM GMT on February 27, 2008
Ugh...Eh well. BRING ON SUMMER AND THE STORMS!!! LOL
Member Since: February 11, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 1201
264. sullivanweather
12:29 PM GMT on February 27, 2008
Good morning, MDF

I think the reason for them to be calling for rain is that the precipitation doesnt start up for you guys until after peak heating and by then the boundary layer should have warmed sufficiently for rain.

I hate to keep on having to tell you the bed news, bro...=(
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
263. MDFirefighter
10:52 AM GMT on February 27, 2008
Morning Sully. I guess I'm not really getting this.....why is the NWS and every other weather site, calling for rain for the Baltimore area when our clipper system moves through on Friday/Saturday?
Member Since: February 11, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 1201
262. Fshhead
7:35 AM GMT on February 27, 2008
Man check out the squall line going over Bimini & heading towards Grand Bahama!

Link
Member Since: November 19, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 9960
261. listenerVT
7:18 AM GMT on February 27, 2008
Anybody wondering how the snow is doing in Vermont,
have a look at the webcam in Burlington.
(Be sure to scroll down to see what that same view looks like on a nice, sunny, snowless day. Ha!)

http://www.hazecam.net/burlington.html
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5500
260. listenerVT
6:03 AM GMT on February 27, 2008
We have 10" overall, 5" new.
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5500
259. listenerVT
6:02 AM GMT on February 27, 2008
So, what's it like down south?
Is it over?
We were told to expect snow all day tomorrow
along with wind.
By the radar it looks like it'll be over by morning.
Or is it still developing?
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5500
258. listenerVT
5:49 AM GMT on February 27, 2008
Well, we have 5 inches now and the heavier snow is underway.

Temp is 33.

Pressure is 29.01 and falling

I just shoveled the inner driveway (in front of the garage)
and hope our plow guy comes at a good hour.
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5500
257. sullivanweather
5:30 AM GMT on February 27, 2008
kdubbz,

Yeah, there's a REAL deep snowpack out there now.
14" here.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
256. listenerVT
5:28 AM GMT on February 27, 2008
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
HEAVY SNOW!!!

Well done, and welcome to the wee lass! ♥♥♥

How long was labour? Tired?
Many delights to you. :~)
Third babies are awesome!
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5500
255. kdubbz
5:28 AM GMT on February 27, 2008
I think about 6 inches here where I am, it never mixed either. What a day. Treacherous travel all day, roads still bad. Good snow for snowmobiling though!
254. sullivanweather
5:19 AM GMT on February 27, 2008
Bro, it was dark as if the sun was about to go down a full 90 minutes before sunset. It looked like we were ready for a thunderstorm.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
253. Fshhead
5:18 AM GMT on February 27, 2008
WOW, it was coming down hard for you guys lol
Member Since: November 19, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 9960
252. sullivanweather
5:12 AM GMT on February 27, 2008
This pinetree is about 250ft away from where I took this pic.

This was during the height of the storm



Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
251. sullivanweather
5:11 AM GMT on February 27, 2008
It was pouring snow here today...lol

Haven't seen 2.5" snow per hour rates in a LONG time.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
250. Fshhead
5:08 AM GMT on February 27, 2008
BTW.... pourin here right now lol
Member Since: November 19, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 9960
249. sullivanweather
5:07 AM GMT on February 27, 2008
Fish,

Yeah, that's what they were saying on the news about the transmission feeder or something sutomaticaly shutting down the reactors. I dunno. That just seems to me like it shouldn't be so hush hush. I mean, if it was that they should have more details.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
248. Fshhead
5:01 AM GMT on February 27, 2008
They still have not given a definitive answer to what caused it either. I have heard a few speculations mainly concerning a transmission feeder going down & that in turn sends the signal to the plant to automatically shut down the reactors. Now I am by no means a nuke power expert but, I think there is going to be more to the story soon cause FPL was very very vague about the cause lol
Member Since: November 19, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 9960
247. sullivanweather
4:58 AM GMT on February 27, 2008
Fish,

Yeah. I had on the news in the other room and they kept on talking about the traffic lights not being on. I wasn't paying attention much cause I was watching the white out we were having.

Then I heard something about Turkey Point shutting down reactors and I flew into the room. I was like "Holy shit! The power plant!!" lol
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
246. Fshhead
4:56 AM GMT on February 27, 2008
Sully,
2 words......
NAILED IT!!!!!!!!!! lol
& to add on to that comment he hinted of this cold snap at the beginning of the month!!
Member Since: November 19, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 9960
245. Fshhead
4:54 AM GMT on February 27, 2008
Low at my location Wed. night is 38
Member Since: November 19, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 9960
244. sullivanweather
4:52 AM GMT on February 27, 2008
NumberWise,

I've been telling Fshhead about this cold snap coming for about 10 days now.

I made the outlandish prediction that he would get down close to the upper 30's on Wednesday night. Looks like this might pan out.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
243. Fshhead
4:52 AM GMT on February 27, 2008
Well you know my schedule so it happened while I was sleeping lol I heard about on the radio in the truck when I ventured to the store. The radio brodcast was almost like an emergencey broadcast & when they mentioned both reactors shut down at the nuke plant, well let's just say that caught my attention REAL quick! lol
Member Since: November 19, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 9960
242. sullivanweather
4:50 AM GMT on February 27, 2008
Hey, Matt!

I'll go and check it out. Closing in on 80" for the year now. A good snow shower tomorrow will get me there, I'm sure.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
241. NumberWise
4:49 AM GMT on February 27, 2008
HeavySnow, congrats!

Did you all see the "winter weather statement" for Florida? At first I thought the Severe Weather map had a mistake, for the temps in southern FL have been 80s and 90s. Crazy...
Member Since: October 22, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1700

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About sullivanweather

Thomas is an avid weather enthusiast, landscaper and organic gardener. This blog is dedicated to Northeast and tropical weather forecasting. Enjoy!

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