Thomas is an avid weather enthusiast, landscaper and organic gardener. This blog is dedicated to Northeast and tropical weather forecasting. Enjoy!
By: sullivanweather , 11:45 AM GMT on February 07, 2008
Current watches, warnings and advisories.
Snow/ice forecast was a bust over central New York and could have been a little less than indicated over Vermont. Any snow reports from the North Country would be appreciated!
On a side note, I think I'm going to take a in depth snow survey later today. I'm going to go into the deep woods and get some measurement and liquid equivalent samples.
I've been having some serious internet connection problems that's not letting me access certain pages. So I'm going to post the forecast from Friday-Sunday from my previous blog, which looks good so far.
Pictures from the walk yesterday will be posted in my g/f's blog, which she will be starting soon.
The upper remnants of the very March-like winter storm that has plagued the nation the past few days will rotate over the Northeast today. This will start a trend towards troughiness in the east that will bring a return to winter weather over the next week and perhaps beyond. A clipper system quickly followed by an arctic front will bring snow to much of the region over the weekend. A brief break on Monday with cold surface high overhead then another hallmark La Nina pattern develops during the midweek as several disturbances track along a stationary frontal boundary set up from the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Ohio Valley. The potential exists for a prolonged winter weather event in the Northeast, especially across the northern half of the region. Enough warm air may sneak into southern portions to eventually change precipitation over to rain but all in all a very wintry weather pattern is becoming likely as we head into this weekend into next week.
Upper trough axis swings through the Northeast today, in conjunction with an inverted surface trough, bringing snow showers to the interior and rain showers along the coastal plain. Snowfall will be light with accumulations ranging from 1-4" with the highest amounts likely over the highest elevations of northern New York, Vermont and New Hampshire. Valley locations should see little, if any, accumulation due to wet ground and temperatures slightly above freezing. Otherwise expect mostly cloudy skies for much of the day with gradually improving conditions from the west during the afternoon. Temperatures will climb into the 40's along the coastal plain with 20's and 30's inland from north to south. North of the surface trough winds will be light out of the north and northeast. To the south of this trough winds will be out of the west-northwest at 5-10mph.
Many rivers around the region are running very high and will continue to do so over the next 24 hours. Action stage and minor flood stage levels have been reached over central and western New York and Pennsylvania with many other smaller stream and creeks running at bankfull. There's also many areas of overwash over area roadways. This runoff should continue over the next 48 hours until this weekends' cold blast which could create more problems as refreezing takes place.
Some clouds and flurries will hang on over New England and northern New York State Thursday night. Further south and west expect a break up of the low cloud cover, but mid and upper level cloudiness will move by as a moisture starved upper trough moves overhead. Temperatures will fall back to near freezing along the coastal sections with teens and 20's inland from north to south. Any wet roads due to continued runoff will likely develop patches of black ice, especially with most salt being washed off area roadways by recent rainfall.
Big changes are in store starting Friday extending into the weekend and early next week. The northern jet stream will buckle and dislodge a very cold arctic airmass currently building over the Yukon and Alaska and send it southeastward across the Canadian praries and eventually into the Northeast.
Weak upper disturbance will still be over the region on Friday and will help to set off some snow showers over the higher terrain of northern New York and New England. Elsewhere over the region it will be partly cloudy with temperatures near normal.
A rather potent mid level disturbance will move into the Midwest Friday night as a strong arctic front attatched to a clipper low over the northern Great Lakes dips southward out of Canada into the Northern Plains. This feature is associated with another strong 500mb vortmax of it's own. Deep trough that's carving itself out over the eastern US will begin to tilt negative as its axis reaches the Great Lakes. Clouds increase Friday night with snow reaching western sections after midnight as warm air advection ensues. Further east skies will be partly cloudy with no precipitation expected.
Complicated situation setting up by Saturday as strong upper disturbance reaches the coast. Clipper-like surface low pressure over the eastern Great Lakes will transfer its energy to a developing low along the Jersey coast. Atlantic moisture will begin to become entrained into this complex area of low pressure and an increasing area of light to moderate steady snowfall will develop over New York and push northeastwards into New England. Boundary layer temperatures along the coast may be warm enough for rain to fall initially but even these locations will see a change to snow during the afternoon as heights crash and dynamic cooling aloft takes place.
Arctic front comes screaming through the region Saturday night while low pressure bombs over the Gulf of Maine. A band of heavy snow may develop on the backside of this low pressure over maine as it wraps up and heads into the Canadian Maritimes Sunday morning. As the arctic front crosses the region a narrow line of snow squalls may accompany its passage. Strong winds will also develop over the region as the pressure gradient tightens between the bombing low pressure over the Maritimes and a 1040mb high over the Midwest. Strong cold air advection will also ensue behind the frontal passage with 850mb temps tumbling to -20°C to -25°C with 500mb thicknesses dropping to 500dm. a major lake-effect snow set-up will be in place with good synoptic moisture present, cyclonic flow and very cold temperatures aloft. Only mitigating factor will be shear, but given the amount of moisture and cold air present the shear will merely act to spread the accumulating snows out some. Temperatures will drop well below normal levels following the frontal passage.
Much of the same continues on Sunday with cold northwesterly flow over the region and lake-effect snows continuing. Steadier snows may also continue over Maine as wrap around moisture from the strong low pressure over the Maritimes will clip the state. Temperatures will rise very little from their morning readings with cold air advection ongoing.
Extended forecast to follow soon...
National Centers for Environmental Prediction (American models)
Canadian global model (GGEM)
Canadian regional model (RGEM)
European ECMWF model
Pennsylvania State University 'E-wall'
Canadianweather.org model page
Florida State University model page
Cyclone phase evolution
SUNY Stony Brook MM5 model
Northeast HiRes WRF model
Climate Prediction Center
NOAA's operational climate program. Links to many climate indicators including ENSO, MJO, teleconnections, outlooks, temperature and precipitation monitoring, stratospheric information, etc.
National Climatic Data Center
Wealth of weather charts and maps
Cryosphere Today (Snow and ice cover updated daily)
United States extremes for specific locations
Climate change links and info
Met office Hadley Centre
NASA GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies)
Real Climate (climate blog)
Climate Policy (AMS project)
Here's a preliminary list of some useful links that I will add to now and then when time allows.
Radar: Northeast Region Loop
Current Northeast Snowcover
MODIS Rapid Response satellite photo of Northeast snow cover (12/06/2007)
Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.
Great Lakes SST's as of 01/25/2008.
Fillipini's Pond conditions (Lake across street)
11/11: 33°F - 1st morning with grease ice on lake.
11/24: 32°F - patchy ice on lake this morning
11/25: 32°F - lake iced over completely, melting along the shores during the afternoon.
12/1: Patchy ice has been on the lake all week. Lake should freeeze over completely tonight.
12/3: Lake is frozen over and covered with snow. Thickness measurements starting soon.
February Daily Weather Statistics
February 1st - 33°F/22°F....1.13"....0%...0.9"...(1")
February 2nd - 35°F/29°F....Trace....0%...Trace..(2")
February 3rd - 38°F/23°F....0.00"....60%..0.0"...(2")
February 4th - 31°F/24°F....0.04"....0%...0.2"...(2")
February 5th - 43°F/31°F....0.52"....5%...0.0"...(2")
February 6th - 48°F/32°F....1.08"....0%...0.0"...(1")
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