Winter returns to the Northeast.

By: sullivanweather , 11:45 AM GMT on February 07, 2008

Share this Blog
0
+

Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings

------

Commentary

Snow/ice forecast was a bust over central New York and could have been a little less than indicated over Vermont. Any snow reports from the North Country would be appreciated!

On a side note, I think I'm going to take a in depth snow survey later today. I'm going to go into the deep woods and get some measurement and liquid equivalent samples.

-----

I've been having some serious internet connection problems that's not letting me access certain pages. So I'm going to post the forecast from Friday-Sunday from my previous blog, which looks good so far.

Pictures from the walk yesterday will be posted in my g/f's blog, which she will be starting soon.

___________________________________________________________


Regional Forecast



The upper remnants of the very March-like winter storm that has plagued the nation the past few days will rotate over the Northeast today. This will start a trend towards troughiness in the east that will bring a return to winter weather over the next week and perhaps beyond. A clipper system quickly followed by an arctic front will bring snow to much of the region over the weekend. A brief break on Monday with cold surface high overhead then another hallmark La Nina pattern develops during the midweek as several disturbances track along a stationary frontal boundary set up from the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Ohio Valley. The potential exists for a prolonged winter weather event in the Northeast, especially across the northern half of the region. Enough warm air may sneak into southern portions to eventually change precipitation over to rain but all in all a very wintry weather pattern is becoming likely as we head into this weekend into next week.

--------

Upper trough axis swings through the Northeast today, in conjunction with an inverted surface trough, bringing snow showers to the interior and rain showers along the coastal plain. Snowfall will be light with accumulations ranging from 1-4" with the highest amounts likely over the highest elevations of northern New York, Vermont and New Hampshire. Valley locations should see little, if any, accumulation due to wet ground and temperatures slightly above freezing. Otherwise expect mostly cloudy skies for much of the day with gradually improving conditions from the west during the afternoon. Temperatures will climb into the 40's along the coastal plain with 20's and 30's inland from north to south. North of the surface trough winds will be light out of the north and northeast. To the south of this trough winds will be out of the west-northwest at 5-10mph.

Many rivers around the region are running very high and will continue to do so over the next 24 hours. Action stage and minor flood stage levels have been reached over central and western New York and Pennsylvania with many other smaller stream and creeks running at bankfull. There's also many areas of overwash over area roadways. This runoff should continue over the next 48 hours until this weekends' cold blast which could create more problems as refreezing takes place.

--------


Some clouds and flurries will hang on over New England and northern New York State Thursday night. Further south and west expect a break up of the low cloud cover, but mid and upper level cloudiness will move by as a moisture starved upper trough moves overhead. Temperatures will fall back to near freezing along the coastal sections with teens and 20's inland from north to south. Any wet roads due to continued runoff will likely develop patches of black ice, especially with most salt being washed off area roadways by recent rainfall.

-------


Big changes are in store starting Friday extending into the weekend and early next week. The northern jet stream will buckle and dislodge a very cold arctic airmass currently building over the Yukon and Alaska and send it southeastward across the Canadian praries and eventually into the Northeast.

Weak upper disturbance will still be over the region on Friday and will help to set off some snow showers over the higher terrain of northern New York and New England. Elsewhere over the region it will be partly cloudy with temperatures near normal.

A rather potent mid level disturbance will move into the Midwest Friday night as a strong arctic front attatched to a clipper low over the northern Great Lakes dips southward out of Canada into the Northern Plains. This feature is associated with another strong 500mb vortmax of it's own. Deep trough that's carving itself out over the eastern US will begin to tilt negative as its axis reaches the Great Lakes. Clouds increase Friday night with snow reaching western sections after midnight as warm air advection ensues. Further east skies will be partly cloudy with no precipitation expected.

Complicated situation setting up by Saturday as strong upper disturbance reaches the coast. Clipper-like surface low pressure over the eastern Great Lakes will transfer its energy to a developing low along the Jersey coast. Atlantic moisture will begin to become entrained into this complex area of low pressure and an increasing area of light to moderate steady snowfall will develop over New York and push northeastwards into New England. Boundary layer temperatures along the coast may be warm enough for rain to fall initially but even these locations will see a change to snow during the afternoon as heights crash and dynamic cooling aloft takes place.

Arctic front comes screaming through the region Saturday night while low pressure bombs over the Gulf of Maine. A band of heavy snow may develop on the backside of this low pressure over maine as it wraps up and heads into the Canadian Maritimes Sunday morning. As the arctic front crosses the region a narrow line of snow squalls may accompany its passage. Strong winds will also develop over the region as the pressure gradient tightens between the bombing low pressure over the Maritimes and a 1040mb high over the Midwest. Strong cold air advection will also ensue behind the frontal passage with 850mb temps tumbling to -20°C to -25°C with 500mb thicknesses dropping to 500dm. a major lake-effect snow set-up will be in place with good synoptic moisture present, cyclonic flow and very cold temperatures aloft. Only mitigating factor will be shear, but given the amount of moisture and cold air present the shear will merely act to spread the accumulating snows out some. Temperatures will drop well below normal levels following the frontal passage.

Much of the same continues on Sunday with cold northwesterly flow over the region and lake-effect snows continuing. Steadier snows may also continue over Maine as wrap around moisture from the strong low pressure over the Maritimes will clip the state. Temperatures will rise very little from their morning readings with cold air advection ongoing.

------

Extended forecast to follow soon...

___________________________________________________________


Useful links

Models

National Centers for Environmental Prediction (American models)

Canadian global model (GGEM)

Canadian regional model (RGEM)

European ECMWF model

Pennsylvania State University 'E-wall'

Canadianweather.org model page

Florida State University model page

Cyclone phase evolution

SUNY Stony Brook MM5 model

Northeast HiRes WRF model

Model biases


Climate info

Climate Prediction Center
NOAA's operational climate program. Links to many climate indicators including ENSO, MJO, teleconnections, outlooks, temperature and precipitation monitoring, stratospheric information, etc.

National Climatic Data Center

Weathercharts.org
Wealth of weather charts and maps

Cryosphere Today (Snow and ice cover updated daily)

United States extremes for specific locations


Climate change links and info

Met office Hadley Centre

NASA GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies)

Real Climate (climate blog)

Climate Policy (AMS project)

--------

Here's a preliminary list of some useful links that I will add to now and then when time allows.



___________________________________________________________

Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar

___________________________________________________________


Current Northeast Snowcover

Northeast Snowcover


MODIS Rapid Response satellite photo of Northeast snow cover (12/06/2007)


___________________________________________________________

Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.

---------------------------

Great Lakes SST's 1/25/2008

Great Lakes SST's as of 01/25/2008.

-------

Fillipini's Pond conditions (Lake across street)

11/6: 42°F
11/9: 37°F
11/11: 33°F - 1st morning with grease ice on lake.
11/17: 33°F
11/22: 34°F
11/24: 32°F - patchy ice on lake this morning
11/25: 32°F - lake iced over completely, melting along the shores during the afternoon.
12/1: Patchy ice has been on the lake all week. Lake should freeeze over completely tonight.
12/3: Lake is frozen over and covered with snow. Thickness measurements starting soon.

___________________________________________________________


February Daily Weather Statistics

February 1st - 33°F/22°F....1.13"....0%...0.9"...(1")
February 2nd - 35°F/29°F....Trace....0%...Trace..(2")
February 3rd - 38°F/23°F....0.00"....60%..0.0"...(2")
February 4th - 31°F/24°F....0.04"....0%...0.2"...(2")
February 5th - 43°F/31°F....0.52"....5%...0.0"...(2")
February 6th - 48°F/32°F....1.08"....0%...0.0"...(1")



Visitor Map
Create your own visitor map!

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

Sign In or Register Sign In or Register

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 35 - 1

Page: 1 — Blog Index

35. MVmass
4:21 AM GMT on February 09, 2008
forecast calls for 2-4 for me tomorrow night and heavy snow squalls with thunderstroms possible on sunday. eeekkkkkkkk!!
34. MNTornado
3:25 AM GMT on February 09, 2008
Good evening my friends. Just a not to tell you that

YouRock_Kitty

Stop by my blog and check out post number 227. I would like to get you input on what I have posted. Thank you.
Member Since: July 1, 2005 Posts: 160 Comments: 19329
33. listenerVT
1:53 AM GMT on February 09, 2008
cchamp6 ~

It's all good!

Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5761
32. cchamp6
9:52 PM GMT on February 08, 2008
I took it apart and found a staple stuck to the magnet. I took it off the magnet, but it still doesnt work. I sent Lacrosse an email but they havent responded. I will look at it again tomm., maybe I missed something else.
Sounds like a couple of inches tomm. night and a pretty good squall coming sunday morning! That will have to do. We havent had any big storms this winter, but we are on record pace for overtime. We have used alot of salt on these little coatings and all of the ice we have enjoyed!
Member Since: December 21, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 2115
31. Zachary Labe
9:20 PM GMT on February 08, 2008
cchamp6- Did you get your rain gauge fixed?
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15142
30. cchamp6
9:16 PM GMT on February 08, 2008
I was just kidding around Listener! Jealousy took over. I am glad to hear that someone gets snow!
Member Since: December 21, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 2115
29. TheShovler3
6:06 PM GMT on February 08, 2008
I was on my way out to see a friend play Basketball at UMASS and i went through North Chatam and saw the crippling ice they had of .5" or more.

I didn't have my camera but i did have my webcam so bare with me



Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2579
28. sabesin2001
5:51 AM GMT on February 08, 2008
euro next wednesday looks pretty nice imo
27. listenerVT
1:19 AM GMT on February 08, 2008
Sully!
I just noticed a familiar pic at the top of the thread.
Way cool! :~)
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5761
26. listenerVT
1:18 AM GMT on February 08, 2008
I've been hanging around waiting for Sully to post his photos.
I'll check back at some point.
Later skaters.
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5761
25. listenerVT
1:15 AM GMT on February 08, 2008
Well, cchamp, I haven't intended to make you feel that I was rubbing it in your face.

It's just that Sully said at the top of the thread:
Any snow reports from the North Country would be appreciated!


So I have been reporting in.
Then Shovler asked me to post photos, and I did.

I've had two days of cancelled meetings and didn't even get plowed out until after 7pm tonight.

Sorry if my postings made your lack of snow feel worse!
Of course, I didn't actually make it snow or not snow.
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5761
24. cchamp6
11:04 PM GMT on February 07, 2008
Listener, nobody cares about all of your snow. I am crying out loud. I am just jealous!!
Member Since: December 21, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 2115
23. listenerVT
11:00 PM GMT on February 07, 2008
Just went out and measured.
We have 16.5 inches of snow now.
And it is *still* snowing lightly.
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5761
22. listenerVT
9:50 PM GMT on February 07, 2008
Just to say, I think we've been getting Lake Effect snow all afternoon.
A little is still spitting, but it appears to be winding down.
If it's not dark yet, when you see this,
taking a look at the Burlington VT webcam will show
that the storm is finally beginning to abate.
http://www.hazecam.net/burlington.html
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5761
21. listenerVT
7:36 PM GMT on February 07, 2008
kdubbz

Which forecast model are you looking at for 132hrs out?
Can you post a link?
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5761
20. kdubbz
7:14 PM GMT on February 07, 2008
We only got a half inch here in albany, ny. Another bust! Ahh well 132 hours out looks like a eastern central NY storm, if it would only stay like this!
19. listenerVT
6:26 PM GMT on February 07, 2008
Webcam in Burlington VT
(scroll down a little to see same view on a clear day)

http://www.hazecam.net/burlington.html
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5761
18. listenerVT
6:23 PM GMT on February 07, 2008
May the Blessing of Snow fall upon all your lawns
(but none of your roadways)~!!
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5761
17. listenerVT
6:20 PM GMT on February 07, 2008
Shovler...mud is no fun. :~(

Our mudtime is coming, and usually happens during Town Meeting (March 4th this year),
which will also be the Presidential Primary here this year.
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5761
16. TheShovler3
5:47 PM GMT on February 07, 2008
listener, fantastic pictures... i'm happy that you got snow, i'd take pictures of my yard but its just a muddy mess right now... maybe next time i'll get a lil snow to cover things up
Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2579
15. listenerVT
5:38 PM GMT on February 07, 2008
(Last photo for now)
This is the yard I said you could all come play in ~

Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5761
14. listenerVT
5:36 PM GMT on February 07, 2008
As you can see, the trees are really weighed down.
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5761
13. listenerVT
5:34 PM GMT on February 07, 2008
Cool!
Northern Cardinal Pair:
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5761
12. listenerVT
5:33 PM GMT on February 07, 2008
Does the blog resize for us?
Or do I need to do that myself?

I'll try one more; if it doesn't work it means I need to resize first. But I tagged the photos under "Snow" and "Winter" ~ so feel free to have a look.

Here's that tree I tried to post before:
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5761
11. listenerVT
5:30 PM GMT on February 07, 2008
Hmmm...that didn't work.
How about this photo of a bluejay? ~
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5761
10. listenerVT
5:24 PM GMT on February 07, 2008
Hopefully this is a photo of a snow covered tree in my back yard.
At any rate, I uploaded 5 new photos into My Photos, so click on my Gravatar and have a look!
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5761
9. sullivanweather
5:13 PM GMT on February 07, 2008
Hey everyone!

My girlfriend and I went out on a nice LOOONG walk this morning to try and find some flood damage.

We were out for over 2 hours and got some good pics.

They'll be posted a little bit later.

We have to go out and go food shop and accomplish other various tasks.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
8. listenerVT
4:17 PM GMT on February 07, 2008
Well, I hope you didn't faint away, Sully, when I posted 18 inches.
It's actually only 14 inches.
Apparently when I went out last night to measure
I forgot to clear snow off the spot I eyeball from, from upstairs.
But 14 inches is enough for this time around.

It's a real bear shoveling out the mailbox.
Sure wish our plow guy could come in the AM instead of the PM most times.
But I like shoveling. I also like making snow sculptures.
But generally I don't end up doing both on the same day. Ha!

Photos coming soon. Downloading now.
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5761
7. LargeCanDan3
3:25 PM GMT on February 07, 2008
I was told by a buddy that Wednesday has a chance of producing something. Any word on a Valentine's Eve storm Sully???
6. Winterstormsblog
3:03 PM GMT on February 07, 2008
18 inches!!

nice total listener....

I'll try and take some photos of my little total of 3.3 inches, lol.

Hey Sully....I HAVE MORE SNOW THEN YOU THIS MONTH! ha!!!

8 inches more to be exact..........you are going down.

Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 86 Comments: 5650
5. listenerVT
2:54 PM GMT on February 07, 2008
Will do, Shovler!
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5761
4. TheShovler3
2:42 PM GMT on February 07, 2008
listener, got a chance to snap a picture or two?
Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2579
3. TheShovler3
2:41 PM GMT on February 07, 2008
Sully, you're forecast was fine. i know i didn't get the snow as expected but that darn temp wouldn't budge from 31, i was 8 degrees below the day time high and had some high hopes for more snow. Oh and my rainfall wasn't over 2" as i reported earlier. I forgot that my gauge was adding in the .38 from the other day. Bud i did receive 1.82" just yesterday when i pulled up the daily data on the computer. We did get about .1" of ice. Our school here was delayed 2hrs because of it. No one could have guessed we would have gotten that much frigid rain.
Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2579
2. listenerVT
2:39 PM GMT on February 07, 2008
Well, I'm heading out to shovel again...the third time in 24 hours and I really can't keep up with it. Looks like we have about 18 inches of snow so far (it is still coming down). Exact total to come.

While out shoveling yesterday, and just beginning to wilt from it a bit (and I like shoveling), I heard a chickadee's Spring Song for the first time all year! It really made me smile. :~) What a gift our songbirds are!
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5761
1. Spetrm
1:58 PM GMT on February 07, 2008
Any wet roads due to continued runoff will likely develop patches of black ice, especially with most salt being washed off area roadways by recent rainfall


Good observation.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 410 Comments: 9858

Viewing: 35 - 1

Page: 1 — Blog Index

Top of Page

About sullivanweather

Thomas is an avid weather enthusiast, landscaper and organic gardener. This blog is dedicated to Northeast and tropical weather forecasting. Enjoy!

Local Weather

Overcast
64 °F
Overcast

sullivanweather's Recent Photos

Sully
Coronas
Mid-October snowfall
Mid-October snowfall

Personal Weather Stations

About Personal Weather Stations