Significant storm targets Northeast on Friday

By: sullivanweather , 8:49 PM GMT on January 29, 2008

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Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings

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Regional Forecast

A warm front will approach from the southwest tonight as a strong area of low pressure wraps up just north of the Great Lakes spreading rain showers across the southern two-thirds of the Northeast with a mix up north. A strong cold front blows through the region during the early morning west, reaching the coast by early afternoon. Any leftover shower activity will change to snow before ending. There will be some lake-effect over the Niagara Frontier and north of the Tug Hill Plateau as flow will be out of the west-southwest following the frontal passage. Some arctic air will skirt by the far north, but for the most part the air following the front should drop temperatures back to within a few degrees of normal. High pressure settles over the region on Thursday as a southern stream system approaches from the southwest. The models are currently divided between two solutions for Friday's storm. One model camp holds on to the primary over the Ohio Valley longer with a weaker secondary development, while the other camp develops a secondary along a strong coastal front which quickly becomes the dominate low. This second solution would bring a substantial snowfall across the interior while the first solution would bring more a a mix precipitation event for these areas. So there's big bust potential with this storm. Given the expected QPF amounts with this storm, the difference in the two model camps is the differenece between a foot plus snowstorm as a few inches of slop. This low moves out of the picture Saturday, with an area of high pressure building in and a seasonably mild airmass in its wake. Early next week another southern stream low begins to get organized over the center of the country. This will move towards the Northeast by Monday, spreading a more significant round of precpitation over the region yet again.

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Warm front situated across the region this afternoon. South of the front temperatures and dewpoints are in the 40's while to the north temperatures and dewpoints are still in the 20's and 30's. This warm front will slowly progress northeastward this evening into the overnight, spreading milder air and rain showers across most of the region. A band of steadier rain could develop, but this will quickly move through the region with steadier precipitation not lasting longer than 3 or 4 hours in any one location. Northern New York and New England may have to deal with a wintry mix of precipitation later tonight with temperatures remaining below freezing. A few pockets of freezing rain could also exist over the Catskills and Berkshires as colder surface air could be tough to scour out over the sheltered valleys. Precipitation amounts aren't expected to be much due to the very progressive nature of this system. Perhaps a quarter to a half an inch. With the recent cold temperatures over the region no hydrologic issues will be of concern. Ice that has developed on area rivers shouldn't break up and the snowpack over the region should absorb most of whatever else falls. Temperatures will hover in the 40's across the lake plains, most of Pennsylvania and New Jersey, southeastern New York and coastal southern New England. Across the interior temperatures will hover in the 30's with near or below freezing temperatures limited to the far north. Winds will increase out of the south, espcially over the lake plain and higher elevations along the spine of the Appalachians, to 20-30 mph. Elsewhere over the Northeast winds will remain lighter out of the south around 5-15 mph.


A sharp negatively tilting trough will rapidly move across the region, entering western areas after midnight and blowing offshore by Wednesday afternoon. The air behind this front will be sharply colder, changing any remaining precipitation over to snow showers before ending. Temperatures will drop several degrees after the frontal passage and hover at those readings during peak heating tomorrow afternoon before dropping again late. Lake-effect snow showers will develop on a mean west-southwesterly wind flow. Several inches of snow will fall across the Niagara Frontier and around the Watertown area. The wintry mix of precipitation over northern New England will decrease in coverage as temperatures slowly warm above freezing during the morning hours. After the frontal passage during the late morning or early afternoon, precipitation will change quickly over the snow showers with upslope regions seeing an inch or two. The other big story tomorrow will be the wind. With strong low pressure wrapping up to the north of the region and high pressure quickly building in, the pressure gradient/rise-fall couplet will be conducive to producing very strong winds, especially across the north. Strong cold air advection will make for some very gusty conditions as well. Winds over the southern portions of the region will range from 20-30mph with gusts to 40mph. However over the northern sections winds will blow from 30-45mph with gusts as high as 60mph, especially along the lakes and over the higher terrrain. Skies will gradually clear after the frontal passage aside from the snow belts and higher terrain.


Wednesday evening will be breezy and chilly for much of the Northeast with lake effect snow showers over the snow belts on a continued westerly to west-southwesterly flow. Several more inches of snow may accumulate in these areas before high pressure begins to build in towards daybreak. Elsewhere over the Northeast skies will continue to clear with diminishing winds after midnight. Lows will range from the 20's along the coastal plain to teens and single digits over the interior from south to north. Some lows may drop below zero across the higher elevations of the Adirondacks, Green and Whites and over northern Maine. Winds will be out of the west to west-southwest around 15-25mph with higher gusts during the evening, becoming much lighter after midnight.

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High pressure builds into the Northeast on Thursday, bringing a fair day to most with temperatures running near or slightly above normal. Attention turns to a developing southern stream disturbance in the southern plains. A vigorous 500mb trough will roll out of the southern Rocky's spawning a surface low pressure over northeastern Texas. This low will then head up into the Ohio Valley Thursday night. From this point on there's considerable spread within the models as some show a secondary low pressure forming along a strong coastal front while others hold on to the primary low as it heads into the eastern lakes. Either way, precipitation will move into the Northeast from southwest to northeast Thursday night after midnight. The initial burst of precipitation away from the coast could be snow or a mixture of snow, sleet and freezing rain. Areas of southern New Jersey and extreme sotheastern Pennsylvania should see precipitation begin as mainly rain, although some frozen precipitation cannot be ruled out.


Evolution of complex area of low pressure on Friday will determine whether or not the Northeast sees a major winter storm, or more of a rain storm. Most storms with a similar set-up this winter have held on to their primary low into the eastern Great Lakes with secondary development occuring over New England, bringing heavy snows across northern New England and a changeover across the rest of the region. This scenario is a distinct possibility with this storm as well, although there are several factors that would suggest otherwise. First, there is a strong, although somewhat transient, 1040mb high over northern New England and the Canadian Martimes. Secondly, offshore waters are some 8-12 degrees colder now then they were in early December when a few of these systems came through. Since there are two model camps set up for this system means are showing the placement of low pressure over central Pennsylvania. Don't be fooled. This will either go one way or the other. Behaviour of the 500mb low while over the Mississippi Valley will be important as well. If it is able to cut off a strong enough low pressure at 500mb, it should help to hold the west-east thermal field to the northeast of the low pressure as flow turns easterly as opposed to southeasterly.

This time around I think I will put my cards in the development of a secondary low along the developing coastal front, with a snowier scenario for the Northeast, eventhough I've been burned once before this winter on this very same forecast. Believe the high to the northeast will hold on long enough and offshore thermal gradient be strong enough to force a transfer of energy to the coastal system, keeping the primary low at bay.

Following this scenario, northern sections will primarily see snow. Across central New York over to central New England, snow will fall for several hours before changing over to sleet then back to snow before ending. Northern Pennsylvania to the Catskills, Mid-Hudson Valley, Taconics and interior southern New England will see snow develop with a light to moderate accumulation before precipitation changes over to an extended period of sleet and freezing rain before ending as snow. Central Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey, southeastern New York and the rest of southern New England away from the immediate coast will see an initial burst of snow which could leave a coating to a couple of inches. Then precipitation will change to sleet and freezing rain for several hours and eventually rain before changing back to snow before ending as heights crash and cold ar floods the region as storm pulls away. Coastal locations, central and southern New Jersey and southern Pennsylvania will see mainly a rain storm, although a brief burst of snow and/or sleet could start things off. Precipitation should taper before it becomes cold enough for any accumulating snow, although some passing flurries cannot be ruled out.

The storm moves into New England Friday night. The bulk of the precipitation will be over with by midnight, except for some wrap around snows over northern New York and New England. There could also be a few lake enhanced snow showers. Temperatrues aloft are marginal at best, but good synoptic moisture will remain over the region which will also promote the development of some upslope snow showers over the higher terrain of northern New England. Otherwise expect clearing skies and a brisk northwesterly breeze. Temperatures will remain several degrees above normal with lack of cold airmass following the system.

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High pressure builds into the region for the weekend with mainly fair skies and temperatures running slightly above normal for early February.

The next system of concern, another southern stream disturbance, will move into the Northeast early next week. Again, there will be an area of high pressure over the Canadian Maritimes with a margially cold airmass in place over the region. Precipitation type will be an issue yet again with a transition zone likely setting up over the interior. There will be a brief 18-24 hour break before the next system moves through Tuesday night and Wednesday with a similar set-up.


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Useful links

Models

National Centers for Environmental Prediction (American models)

Canadian global model (GGEM)

Canadian regional model (RGEM)

European ECMWF model

Pennsylvania State University 'E-wall'

Canadianweather.org model page

Florida State University model page

Cyclone phase evolution

SUNY Stony Brook MM5 model

Northeast HiRes WRF model

Model biases


Climate info

Climate Prediction Center
NOAA's operational climate program. Links to many climate indicators including ENSO, MJO, teleconnections, outlooks, temperature and precipitation monitoring, stratospheric information, etc.

National Climatic Data Center

Weathercharts.org
Wealth of weather charts and maps

Cryosphere Today (Snow and ice cover updated daily)

United States extremes for specific locations


Climate change links and info

Met office Hadley Centre

NASA GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies)

Real Climate (climate blog)

Climate Policy (AMS project)

--------

Here's a preliminary list of some useful links that I will add to now and then when time allows.



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Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar

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Current Northeast Snowcover

Northeast Snowcover


MODIS Rapid Response satellite photo of Northeast snow cover (12/06/2007)


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Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.

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Great Lakes SST's 1/25/2008

Great Lakes SST's as of 01/25/2008.

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Fillipini's Pond conditions (Lake across street)

11/6: 42°F
11/9: 37°F
11/11: 33°F - 1st morning with grease ice on lake.
11/17: 33°F
11/22: 34°F
11/24: 32°F - patchy ice on lake this morning
11/25: 32°F - lake iced over completely, melting along the shores during the afternoon.
12/1: Patchy ice has been on the lake all week. Lake should freeeze over completely tonight.
12/3: Lake is frozen over and covered with snow. Thickness measurements starting soon.

___________________________________________________________


January Daily Weather Statistics

Date___________Hi/Lo____Precip___Sun___Snow____(Snowdepth)

January 1st - 36°F/18°F....0.26"....20%..3.4"...(10")
January 2nd - 28°F/5°F.....0.01"....75%..0.1"...(13")
January 3rd - 10°F/-5°F....Trace...100%..Trace..(13")
January 4th - 25°F/-3°F....0.00"....30%..0.0"...(13")
January 5th - 36°F/9°F.....0.08"....20%..0.1"...(12")
January 6th - 43°F/29°F....0.02"....0%...0.0"...(11")
January 7th - 56°F/36°F....0.00"....50%..0.0"...(9")
January 8th - 59°F/36°F....0.00"....35%..0.0"...(5")
January 9th - 54°F/35°F....0.34"....40%..0.0"...(2")
January 10th - 39°F/28°F....0.04"....80%..0.0"...(1")
January 11th - 43°F/32°F....0.31"....20%..0.0"...(1")
January 12th - 38°F/27°F....0.00"....20%..0.0"...(1")
January 13th - 36°F/23°F....0.23"....15%..2.7"...(1")
January 14th - 31°F/27°F....0.08"....0%...0.9"...(3")
January 15th - 28°F/19°F....0.04"....10%..0.4"...(3")
January 16th - 29°F/13°F....Trace....55%..Trace..(3")
January 17th - 26°F/9°F.....0.17"....0%...1.6"...(3")
January 18th - 37°F/23°F....0.06"....70%..0.2"...(4")
January 19th - 33°F/18°F....Trace....10%..Trace..(3")
January 20th - 21°F/8°F.....Trace....80%..Trace..(3")
January 21st - 18°F/2°F.....0.00"....95%..0.0"...(3")
January 22nd - 29°F/8°F.....0.03"....30%..0.4"...(3")
January 23rd - 30°F/16°F....Trace....80%..Trace..(3")
January 24th - 24°F/12°F....Trace....10%..Trace..(3")
January 25th - 25°F/9°F.....Trace....80%..Trace..(3")
January 26th - 28°F/15°F....Trace....15%..0.1"...(3")
January 27th - 33°F/19°F....Trace....50%..0.1"...(3")
January 28th - 34°F/20°F....0.00"....90%..0.0"...(2")
January 29th - 33°F/18°F....0.16"....0%...0.0"...(2")



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122. charlesimages
7:15 AM GMT on February 01, 2008
LMAO golly WSB I just re-read what I typed about "Dave" lmao

Hope Sully gets a laugh this AM
Member Since: May 25, 2006 Posts: 347 Comments: 29278
121. Winterstormsblog
7:07 AM GMT on February 01, 2008
hahahhha lol charles
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 86 Comments: 5650
120. charlesimages
7:06 AM GMT on February 01, 2008
Wonderful chatting with you Listener. Have a wonderful night!
Member Since: May 25, 2006 Posts: 347 Comments: 29278
119. charlesimages
7:05 AM GMT on February 01, 2008
WOW! Some very well accomplished individuals your children! Those are stories of success that I so enjoy reading and hearing about, warms the heart and allows me to know that yes.. there is hope for our world still!!

The level of intelligence possessed by the majority in modern day in minimal, or so it would seem, here on wunderground we've a very intelligent group... go into the real world, and you can tell where the line of intelligence and flat out ignorance lies. Disgraceful if you ask me..

I plan on my own business with photography. That is a definite.

I prefer amateur meteorology as opposed to professional, I hate math.. a lot. So I will stick to forecasting here on WU and over on our local met. Bill Steffen's blog.

One day I would like to have my own storm chasing show on the Discovery Channel, and teach the public about weather, instead of the mindless "OH WOW HOLY **** IT'S COMING RIGHT FOR US DAVE!" LOL
Member Since: May 25, 2006 Posts: 347 Comments: 29278
118. listenerVT
7:04 AM GMT on February 01, 2008
Well, have a fun evening watching the flakes fall.
Get that yardstick ready!!
I'll check back mid-morning.
Gotta sleep now, though, because I need to be coherent for a phone call in the morning.
I'm working on getting some legislation passed.

Hey, BTW, our family helped pass the home school legislation in Vermont back in 1987. We worked for two years to get a law that balances the rights of children, parents and state. It is such a good law that it still stands today.
It includes an enrollment process, versus approval process,
and has six options for evaluation.
No cookie cutter education in Vermont. ;~)
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5512
117. listenerVT
6:56 AM GMT on February 01, 2008
Winterstormsblog...
Well, that explains why you are able to come here and converse so well about the technical aspects of weather prediction!

Rock on and PARTY on! :~)
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5512
116. listenerVT
6:55 AM GMT on February 01, 2008
BTW, having named the areas of interest of my adult kids, I'll add that since my interests are oil painting, photography, writing and so on, I can honestly say I got out of their way. ;~D
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5512
115. listenerVT
6:53 AM GMT on February 01, 2008
charlesimages...

Yeah..."Is our children learning?"

After college, our son served for two years in Americorps, tutoring 2nd graders in the inner city. He said he could understand why Howard Dean called No Child Left Behind "No Teacher Left Standing"...since there are so many worthless requirements and paperwork fillers.

Home schooling trusts and honours the child's intelligence. Each of ours had a particular interest that was not squelched into sameness, but was allowed to flourish: Computer Science major now making programs used by doctors and hospitals; Math major now in high level management job that scrutinises drug companies; Wildlife Biologist working on docotorate; Computer Science major with English minor (can actually spell! Ha!) working in specialised Customer Service; Website Development major with two companies begging him to work full time.

What are you planning? Is it weather or something else (if I may ask)?
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5512
114. Winterstormsblog
6:52 AM GMT on February 01, 2008
I was .....homeschooled....yessir, thats right...K-12

Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 86 Comments: 5650
113. charlesimages
6:45 AM GMT on February 01, 2008
Indeed, public schools are especially trying as far as focusing and being able to concentrate and cram everything they are required to teach you in such a short amount of time.. Stupid quotas, a "state regulated curricular quota" (is really what it is despite what they portray it to be)

Yet, at the same time, the population wonders why our children aren't passing grades, and handing in work etc.

I have many friends in various grades on the internet, and I am shocked at what they are trying to feed their brains. I don't blame them for skipping classes, dropping out etc..

The stress that the children have in school these days is immense, and yet they wonder what leads them to suicide, drugs, cutting etc?? WAKE UP!

But what are we going to do right? Nobody gives a hoot what we the people think anymore, it's all about money...
Member Since: May 25, 2006 Posts: 347 Comments: 29278
112. listenerVT
6:38 AM GMT on February 01, 2008
charlesimages...

I totally hear you about the efficiency and it being worthwhile (worth remembering) content.

When my daughter was in her second year of college she commented that she missed being able to concentrate on ONE thing for a whole afternoon or day (like a science experiment or reading Tolkien). She also realised she had begun to "memorise for the test." It wasn't the way she would have liked to learn. I will say that she made the best of it. Later she said with that style of learning you have to take it in as fast as you can and trust that you'll sort out what matters and how to use it later on. It's a lot better in Britain, where learning is more conversational.
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5512
111. listenerVT
6:33 AM GMT on February 01, 2008
TheShovler3

Ohhhhh myyyyy!!
So sorry to see your car got wrecked!!
Did you hit a tree or did someone hit you?
Any injuries in the 15 accidents??

Will insurance make another car possible?

Kick back and party for sure.

I can't do the all-nighter, but our storm hasn't started yet here anyway.
Tomorrow noon and onwards.
Our night is tomorrow night.

Hope you get SNOWed on!! :~)
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5512
110. charlesimages
6:33 AM GMT on February 01, 2008
Hey Listener =)

Yes I was! It was so much better, and more efficient learning took place. The best thing is I REMEMBERED everything I was taught.. which is what matters!

Congrats to your kids on their accomplishments! Yeah, I am far from shy myself, I love being amongst the people.

Rock On? I always do!!
Member Since: May 25, 2006 Posts: 347 Comments: 29278
109. listenerVT
6:29 AM GMT on February 01, 2008
charlesimages!

Hey, you home schooled? Tres cool!
We home schooled our five, K-12.
They all made the Dean's list first semester of college, daughter graduated B.S. magna cum laude in math, and they are all gainfully employed citizens...(who are not stunted socially LOL!).

Rock on!
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5512
108. listenerVT
6:23 AM GMT on February 01, 2008
I think you're all having an effect. LOL!
Our forecast in Vermont used to say: noon to 3pm: snow and sleet, 3-4pm sleet and freezing rain, 4-6pm snow and sleet, then mostly snow...etc. Cracked me up that it was so hour-by-hour specific...AS IF that is how it'll come down.

But, NOW, here's the scoop from Vermont...


SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO SLEET AND POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN BY FRIDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT... POSSIBLY BRIEFLY CHANGING TO RAIN BEFORE ENDING AS SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 7 INCHES ALONG WITH ICE ACCUMULATION UP TO AN HALF INCH IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS EVENT. THE GREATER SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS.

THIS WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS LATE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.

IN ADDITION...STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5512
107. Zachary Labe
12:30 AM GMT on February 01, 2008
Winterstormsblog-yea I will be in and out a few times tonight. I cannot wait to see some pictures of the snow!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
106. Winterstormsblog
12:29 AM GMT on February 01, 2008
btw...you coming to the party?
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 86 Comments: 5650
105. Winterstormsblog
12:29 AM GMT on February 01, 2008
bliz.....I FEEL you....I have been what you are going through MANY times.

This year the snow has come in big storms...which is great. I am a bit above average, but not to much.....I am looking at breaking 70 inches this year, which is 15-20 inches above average. Last year I was a bit below with around 45 inches.
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 86 Comments: 5650
104. Zachary Labe
12:21 AM GMT on February 01, 2008
Winterstormsblog- you are so lucky this year. Usually I too would have snowstorms like you have had this year. But this year it has been ice storms.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
103. Winterstormsblog
12:17 AM GMT on February 01, 2008
YEAH!!!!! VIRTUAL BEER!!!! LMFAO

good good.....This will be my 3rd all nighter this winter......

All nighter # 1 Mid-December Blizzard - 9.3 inches of snow and drifts over 3 feet.

All nighter # 2 New Years Day Snowstorm - 11.8 inches of snow, snowfall rates of over 3 inches an hour.

All nighter # 3 Febuary 1st Heavy Snow Event - TBD......... 7 - 12 inches of snow forecasted......
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 86 Comments: 5650
102. TheShovler3
10:17 PM GMT on January 31, 2008
WSB i'll be there man... i'll bring the beer!
Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2579
101. TheShovler3
10:16 PM GMT on January 31, 2008
ugh, ice is terrible. but i'll take it based on the simple fact that i have not a single place to be tomorrow. Would make some nice pictures.
Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2579
100. cchamp6
10:02 PM GMT on January 31, 2008
Thanks WSB!

Shovler, check out the Taunton Ma. tech. dis. They have a secondary low forming near NYC traveling up I-95, I think this would lock the cold air at the surface. We may be looking at some serious ice.
Member Since: December 21, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 1641
99. Winterstormsblog
9:57 PM GMT on January 31, 2008
lol cchamp......YES

I am staying up all night and I need company, lmao.

I will be providing new photos of the snow every hour so you might feel like you are in the storm.

Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 86 Comments: 5650
98. cchamp6
9:55 PM GMT on January 31, 2008
WSB, you got room in your place for a visitor who cant remember what the hell snow is?
Member Since: December 21, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 1641
97. cchamp6
9:54 PM GMT on January 31, 2008
Shovler, I just dropped to 28. I think its gonna free fall for a while. According to Albany NWS, they are gonna hold off until tonight. Thats really smart, so everyone will go to bed not expecting anything and while they are driving to work tomm. they will be doing the slip and slide crash up derby. I swear they dont even know we exsist down here. Its always about albany north!
Member Since: December 21, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 1641
96. Winterstormsblog
9:52 PM GMT on January 31, 2008
hey sul...hate to advertise on your blog......but....

PARTY!!!! ALL NIGHT LONG


When : Tonight
Where: Winterstormsblog
Why: I am stayng up all night for the snowstorm



be there or be square
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 86 Comments: 5650
95. TheShovler3
9:48 PM GMT on January 31, 2008
its 28 here Cchamp, temp got to 32 here also as the top about 4 degrees below the forecast. Our low for tonight is between 14-18 depending on what you look at its gonna be one slushy icy mess tomorrow morning for quite awhile. What i don't understand is why there is no advisory for our areas
Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2579
94. cchamp6
9:37 PM GMT on January 31, 2008
430 pm update. 29 degrees, dewpoint 11 deg., high today was 32 degrees. It is looking like a pretty good shot of sleet and freezing rain here tomm. morning. Not too excited about that. Sully how long do you think the freezing rain will hold on here in northwest ct. ?
Member Since: December 21, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 1641
93. EmmyRose
9:26 PM GMT on January 31, 2008
Well Sulli - was the 8 ball forecast a bust?
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 347 Comments: 76405
92. primez
9:24 PM GMT on January 31, 2008
I'm a sad Long Islander.

I have gone through the entire month of January and needed to wear a coat only once. Sure, the weather is nice, but I was really looking forward to some decent amounts of snow. It doesn't look like February is going to change anything, either.

This sucks...
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 195
91. Winterstormsblog
3:32 PM GMT on January 31, 2008
sul.....

40-50%...I would NOT go that far..

Whoever is JUST north of the dry slot in SE Michigan will get 7-12+....just my thoughts....hehe.

btw.... I put a updated snowmap up on winterstormsblog, its amazing.
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 86 Comments: 5650
90. sullivanweather
7:16 AM GMT on January 31, 2008
lol

I told you it was nutty...

When I clicked on the map and read that my first thought was - "Damn, all that for nothing?!" (notice it says little to no accumulation of anything)

Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
89. charlesimages
7:09 AM GMT on January 31, 2008
SULLY YOU.. YOU REVEALED WSB!!! HE'S GONNA HUNT YOU DOWN LOLOLOLOL

Wow what a forecast, believe it or I understood it LOL!
Member Since: May 25, 2006 Posts: 347 Comments: 29278
88. TheShovler3
7:00 AM GMT on January 31, 2008
partially i believe our lack of closing was due large in part to our superintendent who was from upstate NY where snow averaged 200"+per year that and his Ford F-350 with 36" super swampers. haha...

Well at this point i'd love rain over the ice. here our snow pack is minimal at just about 1.5" however at my girlfriends shes got a solid 3" and in the woods where we tap its about 5" in most places.
Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2579
87. sullivanweather
6:56 AM GMT on January 31, 2008
HA!!!! FOUND IT!!!

Tonight: A slight chance of rain and sleet between 7pm and 8pm, then a chance of rain, freezing rain and sleet between 8pm and 10pm, then freezing rain and sleet likely between 10pm and 11pm, then periods of rain and sleet between 11pm and midnight, then periods of freezing rain and sleet between midnight and 3am, then periods of rain and sleet after 3am. Low around 32. South wind 5 to 8 mph increasing to between 15 and 18 mph. Winds could gust as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
86. sullivanweather
6:50 AM GMT on January 31, 2008
Yeah schools need the students to be there otherwise they dont get that federal funding...

Damn schooling system...
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
85. sullivanweather
6:49 AM GMT on January 31, 2008
Shovler,

Don't let the NWS fool you.

I think we might get enough rain to cause some minor flooding problems on flashier streams and creeks.

There's just no cold air in place ahead of this system. 50-60kt low level jet should have no trouble what-so-ever scouring out this paltry cold air...

There's hardly a lick of snowpack to help out that cause, too.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
84. sullivanweather
6:47 AM GMT on January 31, 2008
Hey Matt,

The NAM, as usual, is showing its bias for giving out ridiculous amounts of QPF...

Cut that down by, ummm, 40-50% and that's where you should end up.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
83. charlesimages
6:47 AM GMT on January 31, 2008
Sucks about your ride Shoveler.. somebody was on the stupidity side when they didn't close school .. but what's new? Schools could give less of a crap if you make it safely or not, THEY HAVE STANDARDS!!!

I was homeschooled, since 6th grade, and I must say, it was incredibly more productive for me than regular school. I can really see how terribly organized schools are.. it's pathetic.
Member Since: May 25, 2006 Posts: 347 Comments: 29278
82. TheShovler3
6:43 AM GMT on January 31, 2008
yeah that was my ride, 2002 dodge durango r/t 300hp 18" chrome's... i loved her more than any other car i've ever owned. Funny thing was we paid 30k for it and the insurance gave us 39k 2 years later and 40,000 miles later... weird huh? so i see that friday they expect freezing rain and sleet til 1pm on NOAA. and they seem to think very little rain

Snow and sleet likely before 10am, then periods of freezing rain and sleet between 10am and 1pm, then occasional rain after 1pm. High near 38. East wind between 5 and 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between one and two inches possible.

I seriously hope we don't get 1-2" of ice that would be ridiculous
Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2579
81. Winterstormsblog
6:36 AM GMT on January 31, 2008
Hey sul,

Just stopping in really quick to say....OMG THE 00z NAM!!!!!!!!! it gives me over 1.50 inches of precip...what our your thoughts on this???

good night all
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 86 Comments: 5650
80. sullivanweather
6:34 AM GMT on January 31, 2008
hmmm....can't seem to find it anywhere...

Shovler,

Day-yamn!! That was your ride?!

Ouch!

Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
79. TheShovler3
6:28 AM GMT on January 31, 2008
This is what happens when your high school refuses to close on an ICY November morning. Completely totaled, rolled over once and the ironic part was it was a 40 ft patch of trees with fields on either side

There were 15 student accidents that day.

Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2579
78. charlesimages
6:25 AM GMT on January 31, 2008
Glad you like the new avatar Sully. If only I could get away with saying F*** YEAH! here.. without ** LOL
Member Since: May 25, 2006 Posts: 347 Comments: 29278
77. sullivanweather
6:05 AM GMT on January 31, 2008
See what? the crazy forecast? lol
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
76. sullivanweather
6:05 AM GMT on January 31, 2008
Thank you, listener!

I'm glad to be of service!

Thank you for being a wonderful contributer! I always look foward to your posts!
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
75. listenerVT
6:03 AM GMT on January 31, 2008
I'd rather have plain old rain than ice, despite the winter weather buff that I am.

Wow! That's saying a LOT!! ;~D
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5512
74. listenerVT
6:01 AM GMT on January 31, 2008
Well, I have to print out some stuff before sleeping,
so I'll close for now.
I hope to be around a lot on Friday (if we keep power! Ha!)
and will post conditions as they happen.

I'm very grateful for this blog and the kind folks here. :~)
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5512
73. charlesimages
6:01 AM GMT on January 31, 2008
Nice, go find it NOW YOUNG MAN! LOL j/k

It would be nice to see it
Member Since: May 25, 2006 Posts: 347 Comments: 29278
72. sullivanweather
6:01 AM GMT on January 31, 2008
Listener,

Yeah, I know what you mean. Luckily I haven't been in any serious weather related car accident...yet.

The ice really does suck. I'd rather have plain old rain than ice, despite the winter weather buff that I am.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612

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Thomas is an avid weather enthusiast, landscaper and organic gardener. This blog is dedicated to Northeast and tropical weather forecasting. Enjoy!

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