Thomas is an avid weather enthusiast, landscaper and organic gardener. This blog is dedicated to Northeast and tropical weather forecasting. Enjoy!
By: sullivanweather , 8:49 PM GMT on January 29, 2008
Current watches, warnings and advisories.
A warm front will approach from the southwest tonight as a strong area of low pressure wraps up just north of the Great Lakes spreading rain showers across the southern two-thirds of the Northeast with a mix up north. A strong cold front blows through the region during the early morning west, reaching the coast by early afternoon. Any leftover shower activity will change to snow before ending. There will be some lake-effect over the Niagara Frontier and north of the Tug Hill Plateau as flow will be out of the west-southwest following the frontal passage. Some arctic air will skirt by the far north, but for the most part the air following the front should drop temperatures back to within a few degrees of normal. High pressure settles over the region on Thursday as a southern stream system approaches from the southwest. The models are currently divided between two solutions for Friday's storm. One model camp holds on to the primary over the Ohio Valley longer with a weaker secondary development, while the other camp develops a secondary along a strong coastal front which quickly becomes the dominate low. This second solution would bring a substantial snowfall across the interior while the first solution would bring more a a mix precipitation event for these areas. So there's big bust potential with this storm. Given the expected QPF amounts with this storm, the difference in the two model camps is the differenece between a foot plus snowstorm as a few inches of slop. This low moves out of the picture Saturday, with an area of high pressure building in and a seasonably mild airmass in its wake. Early next week another southern stream low begins to get organized over the center of the country. This will move towards the Northeast by Monday, spreading a more significant round of precpitation over the region yet again.
Warm front situated across the region this afternoon. South of the front temperatures and dewpoints are in the 40's while to the north temperatures and dewpoints are still in the 20's and 30's. This warm front will slowly progress northeastward this evening into the overnight, spreading milder air and rain showers across most of the region. A band of steadier rain could develop, but this will quickly move through the region with steadier precipitation not lasting longer than 3 or 4 hours in any one location. Northern New York and New England may have to deal with a wintry mix of precipitation later tonight with temperatures remaining below freezing. A few pockets of freezing rain could also exist over the Catskills and Berkshires as colder surface air could be tough to scour out over the sheltered valleys. Precipitation amounts aren't expected to be much due to the very progressive nature of this system. Perhaps a quarter to a half an inch. With the recent cold temperatures over the region no hydrologic issues will be of concern. Ice that has developed on area rivers shouldn't break up and the snowpack over the region should absorb most of whatever else falls. Temperatures will hover in the 40's across the lake plains, most of Pennsylvania and New Jersey, southeastern New York and coastal southern New England. Across the interior temperatures will hover in the 30's with near or below freezing temperatures limited to the far north. Winds will increase out of the south, espcially over the lake plain and higher elevations along the spine of the Appalachians, to 20-30 mph. Elsewhere over the Northeast winds will remain lighter out of the south around 5-15 mph.
A sharp negatively tilting trough will rapidly move across the region, entering western areas after midnight and blowing offshore by Wednesday afternoon. The air behind this front will be sharply colder, changing any remaining precipitation over to snow showers before ending. Temperatures will drop several degrees after the frontal passage and hover at those readings during peak heating tomorrow afternoon before dropping again late. Lake-effect snow showers will develop on a mean west-southwesterly wind flow. Several inches of snow will fall across the Niagara Frontier and around the Watertown area. The wintry mix of precipitation over northern New England will decrease in coverage as temperatures slowly warm above freezing during the morning hours. After the frontal passage during the late morning or early afternoon, precipitation will change quickly over the snow showers with upslope regions seeing an inch or two. The other big story tomorrow will be the wind. With strong low pressure wrapping up to the north of the region and high pressure quickly building in, the pressure gradient/rise-fall couplet will be conducive to producing very strong winds, especially across the north. Strong cold air advection will make for some very gusty conditions as well. Winds over the southern portions of the region will range from 20-30mph with gusts to 40mph. However over the northern sections winds will blow from 30-45mph with gusts as high as 60mph, especially along the lakes and over the higher terrrain. Skies will gradually clear after the frontal passage aside from the snow belts and higher terrain.
Wednesday evening will be breezy and chilly for much of the Northeast with lake effect snow showers over the snow belts on a continued westerly to west-southwesterly flow. Several more inches of snow may accumulate in these areas before high pressure begins to build in towards daybreak. Elsewhere over the Northeast skies will continue to clear with diminishing winds after midnight. Lows will range from the 20's along the coastal plain to teens and single digits over the interior from south to north. Some lows may drop below zero across the higher elevations of the Adirondacks, Green and Whites and over northern Maine. Winds will be out of the west to west-southwest around 15-25mph with higher gusts during the evening, becoming much lighter after midnight.
High pressure builds into the Northeast on Thursday, bringing a fair day to most with temperatures running near or slightly above normal. Attention turns to a developing southern stream disturbance in the southern plains. A vigorous 500mb trough will roll out of the southern Rocky's spawning a surface low pressure over northeastern Texas. This low will then head up into the Ohio Valley Thursday night. From this point on there's considerable spread within the models as some show a secondary low pressure forming along a strong coastal front while others hold on to the primary low as it heads into the eastern lakes. Either way, precipitation will move into the Northeast from southwest to northeast Thursday night after midnight. The initial burst of precipitation away from the coast could be snow or a mixture of snow, sleet and freezing rain. Areas of southern New Jersey and extreme sotheastern Pennsylvania should see precipitation begin as mainly rain, although some frozen precipitation cannot be ruled out.
Evolution of complex area of low pressure on Friday will determine whether or not the Northeast sees a major winter storm, or more of a rain storm. Most storms with a similar set-up this winter have held on to their primary low into the eastern Great Lakes with secondary development occuring over New England, bringing heavy snows across northern New England and a changeover across the rest of the region. This scenario is a distinct possibility with this storm as well, although there are several factors that would suggest otherwise. First, there is a strong, although somewhat transient, 1040mb high over northern New England and the Canadian Martimes. Secondly, offshore waters are some 8-12 degrees colder now then they were in early December when a few of these systems came through. Since there are two model camps set up for this system means are showing the placement of low pressure over central Pennsylvania. Don't be fooled. This will either go one way or the other. Behaviour of the 500mb low while over the Mississippi Valley will be important as well. If it is able to cut off a strong enough low pressure at 500mb, it should help to hold the west-east thermal field to the northeast of the low pressure as flow turns easterly as opposed to southeasterly.
This time around I think I will put my cards in the development of a secondary low along the developing coastal front, with a snowier scenario for the Northeast, eventhough I've been burned once before this winter on this very same forecast. Believe the high to the northeast will hold on long enough and offshore thermal gradient be strong enough to force a transfer of energy to the coastal system, keeping the primary low at bay.
Following this scenario, northern sections will primarily see snow. Across central New York over to central New England, snow will fall for several hours before changing over to sleet then back to snow before ending. Northern Pennsylvania to the Catskills, Mid-Hudson Valley, Taconics and interior southern New England will see snow develop with a light to moderate accumulation before precipitation changes over to an extended period of sleet and freezing rain before ending as snow. Central Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey, southeastern New York and the rest of southern New England away from the immediate coast will see an initial burst of snow which could leave a coating to a couple of inches. Then precipitation will change to sleet and freezing rain for several hours and eventually rain before changing back to snow before ending as heights crash and cold ar floods the region as storm pulls away. Coastal locations, central and southern New Jersey and southern Pennsylvania will see mainly a rain storm, although a brief burst of snow and/or sleet could start things off. Precipitation should taper before it becomes cold enough for any accumulating snow, although some passing flurries cannot be ruled out.
The storm moves into New England Friday night. The bulk of the precipitation will be over with by midnight, except for some wrap around snows over northern New York and New England. There could also be a few lake enhanced snow showers. Temperatrues aloft are marginal at best, but good synoptic moisture will remain over the region which will also promote the development of some upslope snow showers over the higher terrain of northern New England. Otherwise expect clearing skies and a brisk northwesterly breeze. Temperatures will remain several degrees above normal with lack of cold airmass following the system.
High pressure builds into the region for the weekend with mainly fair skies and temperatures running slightly above normal for early February.
The next system of concern, another southern stream disturbance, will move into the Northeast early next week. Again, there will be an area of high pressure over the Canadian Maritimes with a margially cold airmass in place over the region. Precipitation type will be an issue yet again with a transition zone likely setting up over the interior. There will be a brief 18-24 hour break before the next system moves through Tuesday night and Wednesday with a similar set-up.
National Centers for Environmental Prediction (American models)
Canadian global model (GGEM)
Canadian regional model (RGEM)
European ECMWF model
Pennsylvania State University 'E-wall'
Canadianweather.org model page
Florida State University model page
Cyclone phase evolution
SUNY Stony Brook MM5 model
Northeast HiRes WRF model
Climate Prediction Center
NOAA's operational climate program. Links to many climate indicators including ENSO, MJO, teleconnections, outlooks, temperature and precipitation monitoring, stratospheric information, etc.
National Climatic Data Center
Wealth of weather charts and maps
Cryosphere Today (Snow and ice cover updated daily)
United States extremes for specific locations
Climate change links and info
Met office Hadley Centre
NASA GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies)
Real Climate (climate blog)
Climate Policy (AMS project)
Here's a preliminary list of some useful links that I will add to now and then when time allows.
Radar: Northeast Region Loop
Current Northeast Snowcover
MODIS Rapid Response satellite photo of Northeast snow cover (12/06/2007)
Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.
Great Lakes SST's as of 01/25/2008.
Fillipini's Pond conditions (Lake across street)
11/11: 33°F - 1st morning with grease ice on lake.
11/24: 32°F - patchy ice on lake this morning
11/25: 32°F - lake iced over completely, melting along the shores during the afternoon.
12/1: Patchy ice has been on the lake all week. Lake should freeeze over completely tonight.
12/3: Lake is frozen over and covered with snow. Thickness measurements starting soon.
January Daily Weather Statistics
January 1st - 36°F/18°F....0.26"....20%..3.4"...(10")
January 2nd - 28°F/5°F.....0.01"....75%..0.1"...(13")
January 3rd - 10°F/-5°F....Trace...100%..Trace..(13")
January 4th - 25°F/-3°F....0.00"....30%..0.0"...(13")
January 5th - 36°F/9°F.....0.08"....20%..0.1"...(12")
January 6th - 43°F/29°F....0.02"....0%...0.0"...(11")
January 7th - 56°F/36°F....0.00"....50%..0.0"...(9")
January 8th - 59°F/36°F....0.00"....35%..0.0"...(5")
January 9th - 54°F/35°F....0.34"....40%..0.0"...(2")
January 10th - 39°F/28°F....0.04"....80%..0.0"...(1")
January 11th - 43°F/32°F....0.31"....20%..0.0"...(1")
January 12th - 38°F/27°F....0.00"....20%..0.0"...(1")
January 13th - 36°F/23°F....0.23"....15%..2.7"...(1")
January 14th - 31°F/27°F....0.08"....0%...0.9"...(3")
January 15th - 28°F/19°F....0.04"....10%..0.4"...(3")
January 16th - 29°F/13°F....Trace....55%..Trace..(3")
January 17th - 26°F/9°F.....0.17"....0%...1.6"...(3")
January 18th - 37°F/23°F....0.06"....70%..0.2"...(4")
January 19th - 33°F/18°F....Trace....10%..Trace..(3")
January 20th - 21°F/8°F.....Trace....80%..Trace..(3")
January 21st - 18°F/2°F.....0.00"....95%..0.0"...(3")
January 22nd - 29°F/8°F.....0.03"....30%..0.4"...(3")
January 23rd - 30°F/16°F....Trace....80%..Trace..(3")
January 24th - 24°F/12°F....Trace....10%..Trace..(3")
January 25th - 25°F/9°F.....Trace....80%..Trace..(3")
January 26th - 28°F/15°F....Trace....15%..0.1"...(3")
January 27th - 33°F/19°F....Trace....50%..0.1"...(3")
January 28th - 34°F/20°F....0.00"....90%..0.0"...(2")
January 29th - 33°F/18°F....0.16"....0%...0.0"...(2")
Create your own visitor map!
Comments will take a few seconds to appear.