Cold until this weekend, then a warm-up. Stormy pattern developing next week.

By: sullivanweather , 5:25 PM GMT on January 23, 2008

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Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings


Commentary

A brief update, for now. I will be out of the house after 1 O'clock and won't be home until later tonight. I will be down at my parents house after 3pm and they have internet connection, but the resources on their computer isn't nearly as complete as mine at home.

So I'll probably have my synopsis out within the hour and perhaps the short term update. Long term won't be out until later.



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Regional Forecast


Weak high pressure to the south of the region this Wednesday will keep westerly flow going over the region with lake-effect snows continuing across the snow belts. A vigorous shortwave trough swings through the region tonight and Thursday, but is lacking decent moisture to produce anything more than a few snow showers across the region. As this shortwave heads offshore it will spawn quite an impressive ocean storm which could clip coastal sections with an inch or two of snow on its northwest fringes before heading out to sea. Northwesterly flow behind this system will drag another arctic airmass over the region and reactivate the lake-effect machine with a multi-band scenario lasting into Friday before sprawling high pressure building south of the region turns the flow anti-cyclonic and lifts these bands northward. This high will move offshore Saturday, giving way to another shortwave trough that will spread light precipitation into the region over the weekend along with a moderating trend. Models diverge in their solutions early next week with the GFS much more amplified with a trough heading out of the western states than it's much flatter GGEM operational counterpart with the ECMWF somewhere inbetween. The GFS might be trying to move too big a chunk of the western cut-off eastward while the GGEM is holding too much of it back over the four-corners region. Either way, sub-tropical moisture will be moving into the southwest as an MJO pulse spreads into the eastern Pacific and becomes incorporated into the North American weather pattern which will spell a much more active week weather-wise for the contiguous United States. The pattern over the western north Atlantic will be crucial in determining the sensible weather here in the Northeast during this timeframe and models are very touch and go at this time with this developing pattern, showing very little run to run consistancy. It could wind up very rainy or very snowy, depending on which way the NAO decides to tilt, which has been stuck in neutral phase for almost a month.


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Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar

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Current Northeast Snowcover

Northeast Snowcover


MODIS Rapid Response satellite photo of Northeast snow cover (12/06/2007)


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Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.

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Great Lakes SST's 12/07/2007

Great Lakes SST's as of 01/13/2008.

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Fillipini's Pond conditions (Lake across street)

11/6: 42°F
11/9: 37°F
11/11: 33°F - 1st morning with grease ice on lake.
11/17: 33°F
11/22: 34°F
11/24: 32°F - patchy ice on lake this morning
11/25: 32°F - lake iced over completely, melting along the shores during the afternoon.
12/1: Patchy ice has been on the lake all week. Lake should freeeze over completely tonight.
12/3: Lake is frozen over and covered with snow. Thickness measurements starting soon.

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January Daily Weather Statistics

Date___________Hi/Lo____Precip___Sun___Snow____(Snowdepth)

January 1st - 36°F/18°F....0.26"....20%..3.4"...(10")
January 2nd - 28°F/5°F.....0.01"....75%..0.1"...(13")
January 3rd - 10°F/-5°F....Trace...100%..Trace..(13")
January 4th - 25°F/-3°F....0.00"....30%..0.0"...(13")
January 5th - 36°F/9°F.....0.08"....20%..0.1"...(12")
January 6th - 43°F/29°F....0.02"....0%...0.0"...(11")
January 7th - 56°F/36°F....0.00"....50%..0.0"...(9")
January 8th - 59°F/36°F....0.00"....35%..0.0"...(5")
January 9th - 54°F/35°F....0.34"....40%..0.0"...(2")
January 10th - 39°F/28°F....0.04"....80%..0.0"...(1")
January 11th - 43°F/32°F....0.31"....20%..0.0"...(1")
January 12th - 38°F/27°F....0.00"....20%..0.0"...(1")
January 13th - 36°F/23°F....0.23"....15%..2.7"...(1")
January 14th - 31°F/27°F....0.08"....0%...0.9"...(3")
January 15th - 28°F/19°F....0.04"....10%..0.4"...(3")
January 16th - 29°F/13°F....Trace....55%..Trace..(3")
January 17th - 26°F/9°F.....0.17"....0%...1.6"...(3")
January 18th - 37°F/23°F....0.06"....70%..0.2"...(4")
January 19th - 33°F/18°F....Trace....10%..Trace..(3")
January 20th - 21°F/8°F.....Trace....80%..Trace..(3")
January 21st - 18°F/2°F.....0.00"....95%..0.0"...(3")
January 22nd - 29°F/8°F.....0.03"....30%..0.4"...(3")



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14. sullivanweather
6:08 PM GMT on January 24, 2008
There could be a 2-4 hour period of steady light snows sometime inbetween sunset and midnight. A half inch to an inch on the northern Cape, 1-2" southern Cape, Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket.

Perhaps some moderate intensity PVA driven snow showers after midnight which could add a coating.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
13. dean2007
5:58 PM GMT on January 24, 2008
What are your thoughts on this storm, say for Cape Cod, MA and what to expect?
12. sullivanweather
5:51 PM GMT on January 24, 2008
Good afternoon, Dean!

It would appear so.

Here's a good satellite link in motion (non java)

Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
11. dean2007
5:38 PM GMT on January 24, 2008
Sully is this a low, anyone?Link
10. NewtownPennsylvania
4:13 PM GMT on January 24, 2008
Anyone watching Feb. 2nd system?
9. Beachfoxx
8:05 PM GMT on January 23, 2008
Sully,

Still watching the market... its all shaken up! APL is down 24% last I checked! Going to watch it closely, there may be an opportunity once the shake down rattles and rolls back to some stablity.
Member Since: July 10, 2005 Posts: 157 Comments: 29384
8. Winterstormsblog
7:21 PM GMT on January 23, 2008
A mere 0.2 inches...

that steady snow lasted only 15 min.....since then lighter snows have fallen.
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 86 Comments: 5650
7. sullivanweather
6:27 PM GMT on January 23, 2008
How much accumulation you have thus far, Matt?
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
6. sullivanweather
6:23 PM GMT on January 23, 2008
Good afternoon, Fox!

Yup, unfortunately, this is something I wish I was wrong about....

I don't think we've seen anything yet...

As all this poor economic data pours in it's only going to get worse. We'll probably be down near 10,500 on the Dow by next month. Investors can't keep the market artificially inflated for too much longer.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
5. Winterstormsblog
6:14 PM GMT on January 23, 2008
sup sul,

snowing at a decent clip now....vis. down to a mile at times or even below.....

18. 4 F


this is some impressive snow for the radar returns...
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 86 Comments: 5650
4. sullivanweather
6:12 PM GMT on January 23, 2008
Good afternoon, Bob


I'm still very unsure about any February 2nd system.

The GFS has been advertising something around that timeframe, but has shown no consistancy what-so-ever beyond Monday of next week, so anything beyond that time I'm simply throwing out the window.

The Euro model has been showing a very blocky pattern developing over the western north Atlanic next week and until the models can somewhat come into agreement I wouldn't trust any one solution over the next beyond that 5 day cut-off timeframe where the models diverge.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
3. Beachfoxx
6:07 PM GMT on January 23, 2008
Morning Sully,

You were on the mark w/ your market predictions! Still watching the ups and downs.

good day to you!

d
Member Since: July 10, 2005 Posts: 157 Comments: 29384
2. WeatherBobNut
5:55 PM GMT on January 23, 2008
Hi Sully, no prob...when you have time, what are your thoughts on the FEB 2nd storm in the east? Looks like a great lakes cutter so far.....Thanks....
1. lawntonlookers
5:31 PM GMT on January 23, 2008
Good Afternoon Sulli. Have you heard any additional information on the Lake Effect sonw amounts from these latest storms. It seems like they have been going on for several days now. I was just woundering if any posted the amounts. Have a Great Day
Member Since: March 22, 2006 Posts: 9 Comments: 1570

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About sullivanweather

Thomas is an avid weather enthusiast, landscaper and organic gardener. This blog is dedicated to Northeast and tropical weather forecasting. Enjoy!

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