Thomas is an avid weather enthusiast, landscaper and organic gardener. This blog is dedicated to Northeast and tropical weather forecasting. Enjoy!
By: sullivanweather , 1:32 PM GMT on January 19, 2008
Current watches, warnings and advisories.
Short term forecast should be out by 9am. Longer term by 10am.
Low pressure in the south will head out to sea as an arctic front crosses the region today. Lake-effect snow and brutally cold air will following in the arctic fronts' wake, lasting into Martin Luther King Day when high pressure builds south of the area. A weak fast moving disturbance will cross the region on Tuesday bringing light precipitation, mainly in the form of snow. The attending cold front will reenforce the cold air and bring another round of lake-effect snow that will last through Thursday with the aid of a couple minor shortwave disturbances that will drop into the Northeast on a northwesterly flow. Transient high moves through the region on Friday as another trough appraoches for next weekend, bringing chances for rain and snow.
A southern stream low pressure system will head out to sea via the Carolinas this Saturday, too far south to bring anything more than some high clouds to the region while at the same time a strong arctic front will be approaching from the west. Winds ahead of this front are shifting to the southwest, lifting lake-effect bands into the Niagra Frontier and into the St.Lawrence Valley of northern New York. As this front crosses through the region winds will quickly shift from the west and become quite gusty. Some snow showers or squalls may accompany this front as it moves through the region which could drop a fast inch of snow. Moisture is lacking ahead of the front but dynamics are impressive and should be able to overcome this lack of moisture. After the frontal passage lake-effect bands will become west-east oriented and quite intense, especially off Lake Ontario where snow rates with these bands could approach 2-3" an hour by evening. Elsewhere over the Northeast skies should be partly cloudy before the frontal passage with temperatures close to, or slightly above seasonal norms. Highs will reach the mid to upper 30's along the coasal plain with mid to upper 20's over the interior, except for the higher terrain where highs around 20°F should do. Over western sections where the front should pass by before noon temperatures should begin to fall during the afternoon hours.
The arctic front will push offshore tongiht with strong cold air advection behind it and rapidly falling temperatures. Lake-effect snows will continue with the Tug Hill Plateau region of New York expected to pick up well over a foot of snow tonight. In western New York southern Erie, Wyoming, Allegany Chautauqua and Cattaraugus Counties as well as the western Pennsylvania countries of Erie, Crawford and Warren could see accumulations of up to a foot of snow. Just outside of these areas could see accumulations of 3-6 inches, including the western Adirondacks. Elsewhere there could be some scattered snow showers away from the lakes but low level dry air should act to dry up much of the activity away from the lakes. This should lead to partly cloud to mostly clear skies for much of the rest of the Northeast. Temperatures will drop into the single digits across the interior with lows below zero over the higher terrain. Along the coastal plain temperatures will drop into the teens and 20's. With gusty west winds behind the front wind chills should drop well below zero inland and approach zero along the coastal plain.
Strong cold advection continues into Sunday as 850mb temperatures bottom out from -21°C to -30°C from south to north. Lake-effect snows will continue on a westerly flow in the snow belts with favored areas picking up an additional 6-12 inches of wind blown snow. A weak short wave passing overhead Sunday afternoon might provide enough additional lift to carry a few snowbands further from the lakes. Otherwise expect a bitterly cold and blustery day for all of the region with temperatures struggling to crack 10°F over the interior with upper teens to low 20's along the coastal plain. Would not be surprised if some of the higher elevations of the Adirondacks and Green and Whites did not rise above zero. Wind chills will be another factor with many areas remaining below zero in the wind chill department and areas along the coastal plain staying in the single digits. Winds will continue to blow out of the west at 10-20 mph with higher gusts for much of the day before diminishing across southern areas during the late afternoon as high pressure begins to build in.
1040mb high pressure will move by south of the Mason-Dixon line Sunday night with a cold westerly flow of air continuing. Winds will diminish some, allowing for better radiational cooling conditions across the southern areas where lows will fall into the low teens and single digits. Areas along the coastal plain will not fare much better with temperatures in the teens during the overnight. However, across the interior temperatures will bottom out in the low single digits to as much as 20 degrees below zero the further north one heads towards northern Maine. With winds still an issue across the north some extremely low wind chill values exceeding 30 degrees below zero are possible, so it will be dangerously cold outside. Now would be a good time to assemble a survival kit if anyone has plans on traveling Sunday night across the Northeast. Downwind of the Great Lakes the lake-effect machine will be ongoing, but winding down as inversions lower and very dry air moves overhead. Despite all this some significant accumulations of up to 6 inches are still possible given the extremely low water content of the snow that will be falling.
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1040mb+ high pressure crests south of the region on Monday with lake-effect snow showers ongoing over the snow belts, but weakening further. Much of the rest of the region will spend the forst half of the day mostly clear with high clouds moving into the western half of the region by afternoon. Eastern sections will remain mostly clear with very cold conditions area-wide. Temperatures will remain 10-15 degrees below normal for what is the, climatologically, the coldest time of the year.
Rest of forecast remains unchanged...
With high pressure moving offshore Monday night and Tuesday, broad southwesterly flow will ensue bringing a moderating trend. A wave of low pressure will move through the eastern Great Lakes bringing a warm front and associated isentropic lift through the region, setting off some scattered snow showers. The highest concentration of these snow showers will be across northern areas of New York and New England where a light accumulation of snow is possible. To the south amounts should be held under an inch as moisture will be lacking and best lift moves north of this area. Temperatures will approach normal readings for late January with 20's across the north and readings near freezing south.
After passage of the trough temperatures will drop to slightly below normal readings once again Wednesday, as 850mb temperatures drop from -16°C to -22°C from south to north. The lake-effect machine will fire up once again with light accumulations over the snow belts. This event won't be nearly as long lasting as the current lake-effect event that's ongoing over the eastern lakes. The rest of the Northeast will be mostly clear skies.
Clouds increase from the west once again Wednesday night as a clipper low dropping into the Northern Plains will move into the Great Lakes region. Backing flow will lift any residual lake bands north into the Niagara Frontier and north of the Tug Hill Plateau region during the evening hours before they, too, gradually taper. Some light synoptic snow showers will spread into western sections by midnight and spread eastward, reaching the coast by daybreak. Lows will run several degrees below normal with cold airmass in place.
Clipper low heads offshore during the day on Thursday. Before doing so this low has a slight potential to tap into some Atlantic moisture and bring a light 1-3" snowfall to much of New England before heading out to sea. Lake-effect will start up again as this low pressure wraps another fairly significant cold airmass in behind it on a northwest flow. High temperatures on Thursday will once again drop to nearly 10 degrees below seasonal averages area-wide.
High pressure will build in from the west on Friday and Saturday, providing the region with mainly fair skies and light winds. A moderating trend will take hold once again with temperatures returning to near normal levels by the first half of the weekend.
As high pressure moves offshore Saturday night, return flow around this high will start to advect some moisture into the area. Clouds will increase and overnight lows should remain above normal for the first time in a week.
By Sunday a disturbance in the southern branch could begin to spread precipitation into the region. With the cold airmass gone precipitation type will be an issue. For now will go with snow north and a mix or rain to the south. The low pressure is progged to track south of the region so that should limit how far north the transition zone gets with this system. With a week to watch this one there will be time for adjustments, but at this time it appears this storm could be the most significant precipitation event of the month of January.
Radar: Northeast Region Loop
Current Northeast Snowcover
MODIS Rapid Response satellite photo of Northeast snow cover (12/06/2007)
Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.
Great Lakes SST's as of 01/13/2008.
Fillipini's Pond conditions (Lake across street)
11/11: 33°F - 1st morning with grease ice on lake.
11/24: 32°F - patchy ice on lake this morning
11/25: 32°F - lake iced over completely, melting along the shores during the afternoon.
12/1: Patchy ice has been on the lake all week. Lake should freeeze over completely tonight.
12/3: Lake is frozen over and covered with snow. Thickness measurements starting soon.
January Daily Weather Statistics
January 1st - 36°F/18°F....0.26"....20%..3.4"...(10")
January 2nd - 28°F/5°F.....0.01"....75%..0.1"...(13")
January 3rd - 10°F/-5°F....Trace...100%..Trace..(13")
January 4th - 25°F/-3°F....0.00"....30%..0.0"...(13")
January 5th - 36°F/9°F.....0.08"....20%..0.1"...(12")
January 6th - 43°F/29°F....0.02"....0%...0.0"...(11")
January 7th - 56°F/36°F....0.00"....50%..0.0"...(9")
January 8th - 59°F/36°F....0.00"....35%..0.0"...(5")
January 9th - 54°F/35°F....0.34"....40%..0.0"...(2")
January 10th - 39°F/28°F....0.04"....80%..0.0"...(1")
January 11th - 43°F/32°F....0.31"....20%..0.0"...(1")
January 12th - 38°F/27°F....0.00"....20%..0.0"...(1")
January 13th - 36°F/23°F....0.23"....15%..2.7"...(1")
January 14th - 31°F/27°F....0.08"....0%...0.9"...(3")
January 15th - 28°F/19°F....0.04"....10%..0.4"...(3")
January 16th - 29°F/13°F....Trace....55%..Trace..(3")
January 17th - 26°F/9°F.....0.17"....0%...1.6"...(3")
January 18th - 37°F/23°F....0.06"....70%..0.2"...(4")
January 19th - 33°F/18°F....Trace....10%..Trace..(3")
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|Dew Point:||11.4 °F|
|Wind Gust:||4.0 mph|
Updated: 11:55 PM EST on February 17, 2014
Town of Lumberland
Glen Spey, NY
|Dew Point:||55.9 °F|
|Wind Gust:||0.0 mph|
Updated: 6:01 AM EDT on June 09, 2014