Storm later this week followed by arctic blast

By: sullivanweather , 12:54 PM GMT on January 15, 2008

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Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings

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Commentary


No major changes to the forecast. Just a small update to Friday's forecast to clean up some messy wording.

___________________________________________________________


Regional Forecast


An upper disturbance will move through Pennsylvania to provide the southern half of the Northeast with widespread snow showers this Tuesday. High pressure builds in on Wednesday before a low in the southern stream moves up the coast Thursday and Friday with snow inland and rain along the coast. Arctic front blasts through the Northeast on Friday night with much colder air and lake effect snows moving into the region behind it lasting into the weekend. A southern stream disturbance will have to be watched this weekend as the Canadian model depicts a second system trying to turn the corner, however this solution is unlikely as mean trough axis appears a bit too far east. Cold continues into Martin Luther King Jr. Day and beyond.

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An upper disturbance will rotate through the southern portions of the region this Tuesday. Combined with a surface trough and decent moisture through 700mb, these features will produce snow showers over Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York and southwestern New England throughout the day. Accumulations could amount to an inch or two in some locales, especially across western New York and Pennsylvania due to some lake enhancement. Scattered snow showers will also continue in some wrap-around moisture over northern Maine thanks to yesterday's nor'easter. In between these features some stray flurries are possible, but otherwise it should remain partly to mostly cloudy. Temperatures will range from the 30's along the coastal plain and the southern portions of the interior to the 20's across the northern interior. Winds will be light and out of the northwest across the north, shifting westerly south.


Upper low and surface trough both move offshore during the evening with a gradual decrease in coverage of snow showers. Clouds will also decrease after midnight as drier air advects into the region with high pressure building in. Snow showers could hang tough around the snow belts with light flow of marginally cold air over the lakes. Temperatures will drop back into the teens over the interior with 20's to near 30°F along the coastal plain.

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High pressure moves overhead on Wednesday. Some flurries might hang on during the morning downwind of the lakes with a light northerly flow, but for the most part it will be a pleasent day with light winds and mostly sunny skies. Temperatures will rise into the mid and upper 30's along the coastal plain with mid 20's to low 30's over the interior. Higher elevations of northern New York and New England might struggle to reach 20°F. All of these readings will be within a few degrees of normal for mid-January.

High pressure continues to dominate the sensible weather through Wednesday night. With snow cover over much of the region combined with light winds and clear skies, there will be ideal radiational cooling conditions. Lows will drop into the low teens and single digits over the interior with upper teens and 20's along the coastal plain. It would not be surprising if some of the sheltered valleys over the Northeast Kingdom to drop below zero. High clouds could begin to stream into the southern portions of the region by daybreak.


Clouds begin to stream northward on Thursday as a southern stream disturbance attemps to ride up the Eastern Seaboard. What seemed to be another major storm earlier is now looking like a much less intense event, and a warmer one as well. Early indications were for phasing of this southern stream system and a deep trough carving itself ot over the eastern half of the country. This now doesn't occur until the storm reaches the Canadian Maritimes which keeps this a much weaker system with less QPF. None-the-less, precipitation will begin to work its way into the southern portions of the region by Thursday afternoon as light snow over interior Pennsylvania and rain along the coastal plain. Further north, a dry day will be squeezed out with nothing more than some increasing cloud cover. Temperatures will be close to normal.

Precipitation spreads northwards Thursday night as low pressure moves up the coast. With the lack of high pressure to the north and an approaching frontal boundary to the west, warmer air will be drawn inland allowing for a changeover to sleet and freezing rain up to 100 miles inland and rain up to 50 miles inland. Since this will be where the heaviest QPF will fall during the night on Thursday, accumulations doesn't look nearly as impressive as they have on previous model runs. Snow will be confined from central Pennsylvania northeastwards into central/northern New York and central New England. Northern New England should stay dry. Temperatures will rise above freezing along the coastal plain, with teens and 20's over the interior. Winds will increase out of the southeast.

Storm system moves into New England on Friday where phasing begins to occur, but too late for a major storm for the all of the Northeast but early enough to give Maine some significant snowfall. Snow will move into northern New England and continue over central and northern New York. The transition zone will push into central New England and straddle up along the Maine coast. By afternoon the frontal boundary will begin to move into western sections with the lakes beginning to get involved as cold air floods the region. Across the south precipitation will clear the area leaving behind partly cloudy skies.

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Models diverge in their solutions this weekend as the GFS model shows a clipper low moving into the Northeast on Saturday, followed by an arctic blast of air which will fire up the lake-effect machine by Sunday. The Canadian, and to a lesser extent the ECMWF, show the possibility of another southern stream disturbance trying to move up along the coast, bringing a more significant precipitation event to areas within one hundred miles of the coast. It's too early to say with any certainty which solution will verify but bottom line is that much colder weather can be expected with the passage of the arctic fron with 850mb temperatures dropping from -15°C to -24°C from south to north. Lake-effect snow is another certainty with cold air moving over the relatively warm lake waters.




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Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar

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Current Northeast Snowcover

Northeast Snowcover


MODIS Rapid Response satellite photo of Northeast snow cover (12/06/2007)


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Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.

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Great Lakes SST's 12/07/2007

Great Lakes SST's as of 01/13/2008.

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Fillipini's Pond conditions (Lake across street)

11/6: 42°F
11/9: 37°F
11/11: 33°F - 1st morning with grease ice on lake.
11/17: 33°F
11/22: 34°F
11/24: 32°F - patchy ice on lake this morning
11/25: 32°F - lake iced over completely, melting along the shores during the afternoon.
12/1: Patchy ice has been on the lake all week. Lake should freeeze over completely tonight.
12/3: Lake is frozen over and covered with snow. Thickness measurements starting soon.

___________________________________________________________


January Daily Weather Statistics

Date___________Hi/Lo____Precip___Sun___Snow____(Snowdepth)

January 1st - 36°F/18°F....0.26"....20%..3.4"...(10")
January 2nd - 28°F/5°F.....0.01"....75%..0.1"...(13")
January 3rd - 10°F/-5°F....Trace...100%..Trace..(13")
January 4th - 25°F/-3°F....0.00"....30%..0.0"...(13")
January 5th - 36°F/9°F.....0.08"....20%..0.1"...(12")
January 6th - 43°F/29°F....0.02"....0%...0.0"...(11")
January 7th - 56°F/36°F....0.00"....50%..0.0"...(9")
January 8th - 59°F/36°F....0.00"....35%..0.0"...(5")
January 9th - 54°F/35°F....0.34"....40%..0.0"...(2")
January 10th - 39°F/28°F....0.04"....80%..0.0"...(1")
January 11th - 43°F/32°F....0.31"....20%..0.0"...(1")
January 12th - 38°F/27°F....0.00"....20%..0.0"...(1")
January 13th - 36°F/23°F....0.23"....15%..2.7"...(1")
January 14th - 31°F/27°F....0.08"....0%...0.9"...(3")
January 15th - 28°F/19°F....0.04"....10%..0.4"...(3")



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94. listenerVT
6:51 AM GMT on January 17, 2008
Oh, and WELCOME JerseyFlake!! :~)

I hope we all get enough snow to go snowshoeing in...
once I'm off the roads! LOL!

Take care, Winterstormsblog!
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5600
93. listenerVT
6:50 AM GMT on January 17, 2008
Well, I'm going to pack the suitcase and hit the pillow.

The NWS says it's 4 degrees here right now,
but our thermometer says 11 degrees.

I think the thermometer is correct
because I haven't needed to add an extra layer this evening.
Of course, it's not especially windy either.

Traveling Mercies to all. ♥
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5600
92. jerseyflake
6:12 AM GMT on January 17, 2008
I'm a newbie here on the blog....what are the chances that something actually pans out this weekend for jersey
91. rmh9903
5:53 AM GMT on January 17, 2008
Sully I just got off the phone with a guy I know at the Sterling VA NWS office and he said the maps are a bit under what he thinks will fall for an area from Harrisonburg VA to northeast mountains of PA. He thinks 7-9 will be the average . :) Me HAPPY!!!
90. Winterstormsblog
5:52 AM GMT on January 17, 2008
yeah I-94.....it goes right up next to the lakeshore for a good stretch....my worry is that I will be passing through western Michigan before the real heavy stuff gets here..unless, like you say, I catch some heavy bursts along the arctic front...I hope I get lucky ; P

goodnight bro
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 86 Comments: 5650
89. sullivanweather
5:38 AM GMT on January 17, 2008
Matt,

I-94??

If so, you should hit some lake-effect. In fact, behind that front the lake-effect combined with the wind, you might just run into a mini-blizzard! LOL

I'm liking the new GFS too! It's finally starting to keep a nice strong high right to our north as these systems come through. Could be very snowy here for the last half of the month.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
88. Winterstormsblog
5:20 AM GMT on January 17, 2008
I wont be home friday night!! DARN!!

any chance that I run into it driving to chicago between 11am - 3pm friday afternoon? Or at least some type of heavy snow? I would love to, lmfao.

Am I ever liking the 00z GFS for next week...looks snowy for the great lakes!
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 86 Comments: 5650
87. sullivanweather
5:10 AM GMT on January 17, 2008
Hey Matt!

I'll be pulling for ya! I'm thinking that there should also be a nice squall line that develops out ahead of the arctic front that comes through on Friday night.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
86. sabesin2001
5:03 AM GMT on January 17, 2008
thanks sully, i'll be keeping my fingers crossed but i'd be plenty happy with 2-5.
85. Winterstormsblog
4:52 AM GMT on January 17, 2008
sup sully...

had a low of 9 F this morning...

looks like some snow could come my way tommorow...The 00z NAM shows a little, and a mean little, area of heavier precip during the day tomorrow right over Ann Arbor...wouldnt that be nice? lol
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 86 Comments: 5650
84. sullivanweather
4:46 AM GMT on January 17, 2008
Hey Sabes,

It's looking like there could be a good 2-5" snowfall in Boston for this storm.

Eventhough QPF doesn't look too impressive, ratios could be some 14-15:1 with the arctic air being drawn into the backside of the system.

I still think the storm will be too far offshore for a major hit at this time, but man, wouldn't it be nice for this one to turn the corner.

I specifically remember a VERY similar event when I was much younger. Probably in 1994, where there was a coastal system forecast to closely follow another coastal storm that was originally progged to head out to sea but instead gave a good swath of 6-12" of snow.

I really wish I had some information on that one to compare to this storms' set-up. At this juncture anything is possible. The two storms set to come together to form the weekend storm are currently off the southern California coast and in northern British Columbia where the ob network is very sparse. Any under-analyzing from the current models would bring a storm closer to the coast. If any good convection can get fired up over the GOM that will also help to builds heights somewhat in the western Atlantic, which would induce more south-north movement as opposed to west-east.

Right now the trough digging into the eastern US just seems to positively tilted/progressive to give a major storm. Although as mentioned above, models just might be under-analyzing the energy that will be feeding this systems' devleopment.

I would put the chances for snowfall at the following percentages:

significant snowfall (6"+) - 15%
Moderate snowfall (3-6") - 25%
light snowfall (1-3") - 40%
near-miss - 20%
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
83. sabesin2001
4:30 AM GMT on January 17, 2008
looks like the gfs and nam are inching the saturday storm closer to the coast. should i get excited in boston?
82. sullivanweather
3:19 AM GMT on January 17, 2008
Listener,

LOL

Either way is fine.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
81. listenerVT
3:17 AM GMT on January 17, 2008
BTW, do you prefer Sully or Sulli?
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5600
80. listenerVT
3:15 AM GMT on January 17, 2008
That is my fervent hope, Sully.

I suppose weather is always inconvenient for someone.
This could be my turn. We'll see.
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5600
79. sullivanweather
3:11 AM GMT on January 17, 2008
Yeah, if you're leaving Thursday you should be able to make it to your destination before it hits and if you leave late enough on Friday it should all be over.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
78. listenerVT
3:08 AM GMT on January 17, 2008
Thanks, Sully.

That does concern me a bit.
However, since the storm is supposed to hit between 3am and 2:30pm, I think I am going to go after all.
Let's hope the timing is accurately forecast.

Everybody do a Rain Dance, okay?
(Just until I get home around dinnertime on Friday.
Then it's on to Snow Dancing!) :~)
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5600
77. Stormfront
2:35 AM GMT on January 17, 2008
Don't fret snojo. Big winter snows will fall once again on us in the future. Just not this year!
Member Since: March 3, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 125
76. sullivanweather
2:20 AM GMT on January 17, 2008
Listener,

I think there should be a light to moderate snow event for Vermont and New Hampshire.

If you feel as though you can make it through about 3-5" you should be okay. I must say though, those higher mountains just might get a little bit more.

Tough call.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
75. NumberWise
12:42 AM GMT on January 17, 2008
It's snowing in Georgia....
Member Since: October 22, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1739
74. listenerVT
11:37 PM GMT on January 16, 2008
Well, I'm feeling a bit confused.
The forecasters here are still saying "snow" for Friday,
and "mixed precipitation" for NH.

I'm supposed to make a 2 1/2 hr trip from near Burlington, VT to Concord, NH tomorrow and drive back on Friday.
Good idea? Bad idea?
I have two, possibly three meetings to go to,
but will bow out if the roads are going to be bad.
I-89 from near Burlington, VT to Concord stretches through 5 weather areas:
Champlain Valley, Green Mountains, Upper Valley (at CT River), the mountains in W. NH, and the Concord region.
I have gone from sunshine to snow squalls to rain to ice then on to flurries in less than three hours.

I'd really like to know what to expect
before I make a hotel reservation.
What do folks here think?
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5600
73. SnoJo
8:58 PM GMT on January 16, 2008
Yes...it is sad. Winter is not the same as it was in the late 70's and early 80's in MD. Alot of disappointment if you are a fan of snow.Though there have been moments. Short-lived.
72. MDFirefighter
8:12 PM GMT on January 16, 2008
LOL Palmyra
Member Since: February 11, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 1201
71. PalmyraPunishment
8:28 PM GMT on January 16, 2008
I think last year I got so fed up with the lack of snow storms (early winter - january) that I just started forecasting blood falling from the skies...

I'm about there, again...
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
70. Zachary Labe
8:26 PM GMT on January 16, 2008
I am going to post a full update on storm potential in my blog sometime this afternoon.

I think this 20th storm could be something to watch!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
69. dean2007
8:22 PM GMT on January 16, 2008
I would too sully like to see the GFS hop on to the bandwagon on the Saturday storm. I'm off the Thursday/Friday storm since this past Monday. I have been saying we were going to see a snowstorm on the 20th, just by my gut feeling, but gut feelings don't always pan out, and I'm feeling this is just the case again Saturday and Sunday.
68. MDFirefighter
8:18 PM GMT on January 16, 2008
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
235 PM EST WED JAN 16 2008
..WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO
MIDNIGHT EST THURSDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THURSDAY
TO MIDNIGHT EST THURSDAY NIGHT.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW TO A POSITION SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
BY FRIDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...PRECIPITATION WILL
OVERSPREAD INTO NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND MOST OF MARYLAND AFTER 7 AM
TOMORROW AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF AROUND
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS SNOW THURSDAY MORNING
ACCUMULATING AROUND AN INCH AROUND THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR WITH
AS MUCH AS THREE INCHES POSSIBLE NORTH AND WEST OF WASHINGTON DC
AND BALTIMORE. A CHANGEOVER TO SOME SLEET...FREEZING RAIN OR RAIN IS
EXPECTED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS FROM A LIGHT COATING TO UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE ON TOP OF THE SNOW PACK.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.
Member Since: February 11, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 1201
67. sabesin2001
8:16 PM GMT on January 16, 2008
i sure hope someone starts "illegally" posting the ecmwf again soon. what do "professional" mets know anyway?
66. sullivanweather
6:27 PM GMT on January 16, 2008
PP,

I still have my reservations for this weekends' potential storm. Although the chances for it are looking better and better.

I would still like to see the GFS hop on board.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
65. PalmyraPunishment
6:35 PM GMT on January 16, 2008
storm on saturday looks nice, although it looks like i may be a little too far west. let's just hope this one doesn't crap out on us
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
64. sullivanweather
6:24 PM GMT on January 16, 2008
Russ,

I still think that you should start off with a period of snow before quickly going over to rain. Some sleet might mix in at times as well, but this should be mostly rain for you.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
63. sullivanweather
6:25 PM GMT on January 16, 2008
Yeah, the GFS has been rather inconsistant lately.

It was doing well about a week or two ago...now it's out of sync.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
62. RussinRichmond
6:24 PM GMT on January 16, 2008
So what happens with Richmond guys im talking about tomorrows little storm btw.
61. MDFirefighter
6:28 PM GMT on January 16, 2008
good. i'm not really worried about the GFS right now. it can't seem to make up its mind recently.
Member Since: February 11, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 1201
60. sullivanweather
6:26 PM GMT on January 16, 2008
Models have definitely trended stronger with events as they have drawn near, usually following the lead of the GGEM/ECMWF models, much of the winter.

Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
59. MDFirefighter
6:23 PM GMT on January 16, 2008
Thanks Sully. Things should be interesting.
Member Since: February 11, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 1201
58. sullivanweather
6:19 PM GMT on January 16, 2008
Canadian GGEM

Here you go, MDF.

Looks pretty good. You're close to the rain/snow line, but you should see something if this model verifies.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
57. MDFirefighter
6:04 PM GMT on January 16, 2008
what's it look like for my area Sully?
Member Since: February 11, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 1201
56. sullivanweather
5:50 PM GMT on January 16, 2008
I just took a look at the new GGEM and it's showing a rather significant snowstorm for this weekend.

@84hrs it shows a 996mb low about 100mi SE of Cape May.

@96hrs it shows a 981mb low just off Nova Scotia.

Within 100mi of the coast it brings about a half inch to an inch QPF.



Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
55. LakeShadow
5:14 PM GMT on January 16, 2008
doesnt even look too promising for LES in my area, the 850mb winds are in the right direction but the convective outlook is not in favor...from what I can tell, anyways.
The local mets still calling for the NE storm, so I have no idea what to expect...
Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 2134
54. sullivanweather
4:57 PM GMT on January 16, 2008
MDF,

Anytime, bro!
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
53. LakeShadow
4:57 PM GMT on January 16, 2008
thanks sully.
its very useful.
;O)
Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 2134
52. MDFirefighter
4:35 PM GMT on January 16, 2008
Thanks for that link Sully!
Member Since: February 11, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 1201
51. sullivanweather
4:37 PM GMT on January 16, 2008
Lake,

You might find this link useful
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
50. MDFirefighter
4:47 PM GMT on January 16, 2008
Thanks for the info Sully!
Member Since: February 11, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 1201
49. MDFirefighter
4:42 PM GMT on January 16, 2008
But did I see correctly that the 20th storm is going to be a bust, as well? Man.. a lot of people have been riding that storm for 15 days now, I would hate to see it end so sadly... want snow, damnit!

Seems like a majority of the models are liking the 20th storm. I think the GFS is about the only one that doesn't like it.
Member Since: February 11, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 1201
48. sullivanweather
4:44 PM GMT on January 16, 2008
MDF,

Nope, no 'good' Euro links here, really.

I do have this one, but it doesn't show precipitation. It also doesn't update until like 6-8 hours after the run has come out.

The easternwx.com website was forced to take their ECMWF graphics down because they violated distribution rights, or something.

Apparently the ECMWF people think that their little model shouldn't be disseminated to the public and only make it available for the professional METS, which is absolute BS, if you ask me.


Of course, you can always go here which is the ECMWF official site and click on the 'forecasts' tab on the left side of the page. Once it takes you to the forecasts page you then have to click on the north america option. Only problem is that the only options you have to look at is 850mb wind/mslp and 500mb heights. This is usually posted around 2pm/2am everyday. It also goes out the full 10 days.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
47. PalmyraPunishment
4:39 PM GMT on January 16, 2008
Morning, all.

So Thursday looks to officially become a bust... good thing I never put too much in that one,

But did I see correctly that the 20th storm is going to be a bust, as well? Man.. a lot of people have been riding that storm for 15 days now, I would hate to see it end so sadly... want snow, damnit!
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
46. LakeShadow
4:33 PM GMT on January 16, 2008
hola...so it looks like the lakes will get the LES and the NE will get the shaft this weekend, eh? Seeing as mesoscale analysis is a short term type of thing, when can I start looking to see what Thurs will bring? I have a NOAA meso page but it just gives me 6 hours notice...do you have anything that projects farther into the future?
thanks!
Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 2134
45. MDFirefighter
4:23 PM GMT on January 16, 2008
Sully, do you have a good link for the Euro? The site I was using got shut down or something lol
Member Since: February 11, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 1201
44. MDFirefighter
4:04 PM GMT on January 16, 2008
I think the GFS just needs to quit with its cha cha dancing recently lol
Member Since: February 11, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 1201

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