Thomas is an avid weather enthusiast, landscaper and organic gardener. This blog is dedicated to Northeast and tropical weather forecasting. Enjoy!
By: sullivanweather , 12:54 PM GMT on January 15, 2008
Current watches, warnings and advisories.
No major changes to the forecast. Just a small update to Friday's forecast to clean up some messy wording.
An upper disturbance will move through Pennsylvania to provide the southern half of the Northeast with widespread snow showers this Tuesday. High pressure builds in on Wednesday before a low in the southern stream moves up the coast Thursday and Friday with snow inland and rain along the coast. Arctic front blasts through the Northeast on Friday night with much colder air and lake effect snows moving into the region behind it lasting into the weekend. A southern stream disturbance will have to be watched this weekend as the Canadian model depicts a second system trying to turn the corner, however this solution is unlikely as mean trough axis appears a bit too far east. Cold continues into Martin Luther King Jr. Day and beyond.
An upper disturbance will rotate through the southern portions of the region this Tuesday. Combined with a surface trough and decent moisture through 700mb, these features will produce snow showers over Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York and southwestern New England throughout the day. Accumulations could amount to an inch or two in some locales, especially across western New York and Pennsylvania due to some lake enhancement. Scattered snow showers will also continue in some wrap-around moisture over northern Maine thanks to yesterday's nor'easter. In between these features some stray flurries are possible, but otherwise it should remain partly to mostly cloudy. Temperatures will range from the 30's along the coastal plain and the southern portions of the interior to the 20's across the northern interior. Winds will be light and out of the northwest across the north, shifting westerly south.
Upper low and surface trough both move offshore during the evening with a gradual decrease in coverage of snow showers. Clouds will also decrease after midnight as drier air advects into the region with high pressure building in. Snow showers could hang tough around the snow belts with light flow of marginally cold air over the lakes. Temperatures will drop back into the teens over the interior with 20's to near 30°F along the coastal plain.
High pressure moves overhead on Wednesday. Some flurries might hang on during the morning downwind of the lakes with a light northerly flow, but for the most part it will be a pleasent day with light winds and mostly sunny skies. Temperatures will rise into the mid and upper 30's along the coastal plain with mid 20's to low 30's over the interior. Higher elevations of northern New York and New England might struggle to reach 20°F. All of these readings will be within a few degrees of normal for mid-January.
High pressure continues to dominate the sensible weather through Wednesday night. With snow cover over much of the region combined with light winds and clear skies, there will be ideal radiational cooling conditions. Lows will drop into the low teens and single digits over the interior with upper teens and 20's along the coastal plain. It would not be surprising if some of the sheltered valleys over the Northeast Kingdom to drop below zero. High clouds could begin to stream into the southern portions of the region by daybreak.
Clouds begin to stream northward on Thursday as a southern stream disturbance attemps to ride up the Eastern Seaboard. What seemed to be another major storm earlier is now looking like a much less intense event, and a warmer one as well. Early indications were for phasing of this southern stream system and a deep trough carving itself ot over the eastern half of the country. This now doesn't occur until the storm reaches the Canadian Maritimes which keeps this a much weaker system with less QPF. None-the-less, precipitation will begin to work its way into the southern portions of the region by Thursday afternoon as light snow over interior Pennsylvania and rain along the coastal plain. Further north, a dry day will be squeezed out with nothing more than some increasing cloud cover. Temperatures will be close to normal.
Precipitation spreads northwards Thursday night as low pressure moves up the coast. With the lack of high pressure to the north and an approaching frontal boundary to the west, warmer air will be drawn inland allowing for a changeover to sleet and freezing rain up to 100 miles inland and rain up to 50 miles inland. Since this will be where the heaviest QPF will fall during the night on Thursday, accumulations doesn't look nearly as impressive as they have on previous model runs. Snow will be confined from central Pennsylvania northeastwards into central/northern New York and central New England. Northern New England should stay dry. Temperatures will rise above freezing along the coastal plain, with teens and 20's over the interior. Winds will increase out of the southeast.
Storm system moves into New England on Friday where phasing begins to occur, but too late for a major storm for the all of the Northeast but early enough to give Maine some significant snowfall. Snow will move into northern New England and continue over central and northern New York. The transition zone will push into central New England and straddle up along the Maine coast. By afternoon the frontal boundary will begin to move into western sections with the lakes beginning to get involved as cold air floods the region. Across the south precipitation will clear the area leaving behind partly cloudy skies.
Models diverge in their solutions this weekend as the GFS model shows a clipper low moving into the Northeast on Saturday, followed by an arctic blast of air which will fire up the lake-effect machine by Sunday. The Canadian, and to a lesser extent the ECMWF, show the possibility of another southern stream disturbance trying to move up along the coast, bringing a more significant precipitation event to areas within one hundred miles of the coast. It's too early to say with any certainty which solution will verify but bottom line is that much colder weather can be expected with the passage of the arctic fron with 850mb temperatures dropping from -15°C to -24°C from south to north. Lake-effect snow is another certainty with cold air moving over the relatively warm lake waters.
Radar: Northeast Region Loop
Current Northeast Snowcover
MODIS Rapid Response satellite photo of Northeast snow cover (12/06/2007)
Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.
Great Lakes SST's as of 01/13/2008.
Fillipini's Pond conditions (Lake across street)
11/11: 33°F - 1st morning with grease ice on lake.
11/24: 32°F - patchy ice on lake this morning
11/25: 32°F - lake iced over completely, melting along the shores during the afternoon.
12/1: Patchy ice has been on the lake all week. Lake should freeeze over completely tonight.
12/3: Lake is frozen over and covered with snow. Thickness measurements starting soon.
January Daily Weather Statistics
January 1st - 36°F/18°F....0.26"....20%..3.4"...(10")
January 2nd - 28°F/5°F.....0.01"....75%..0.1"...(13")
January 3rd - 10°F/-5°F....Trace...100%..Trace..(13")
January 4th - 25°F/-3°F....0.00"....30%..0.0"...(13")
January 5th - 36°F/9°F.....0.08"....20%..0.1"...(12")
January 6th - 43°F/29°F....0.02"....0%...0.0"...(11")
January 7th - 56°F/36°F....0.00"....50%..0.0"...(9")
January 8th - 59°F/36°F....0.00"....35%..0.0"...(5")
January 9th - 54°F/35°F....0.34"....40%..0.0"...(2")
January 10th - 39°F/28°F....0.04"....80%..0.0"...(1")
January 11th - 43°F/32°F....0.31"....20%..0.0"...(1")
January 12th - 38°F/27°F....0.00"....20%..0.0"...(1")
January 13th - 36°F/23°F....0.23"....15%..2.7"...(1")
January 14th - 31°F/27°F....0.08"....0%...0.9"...(3")
January 15th - 28°F/19°F....0.04"....10%..0.4"...(3")
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|Dew Point:||11.4 °F|
|Wind Gust:||4.0 mph|
Updated: 11:55 PM EST on February 17, 2014
Town of Lumberland
Glen Spey, NY
|Dew Point:||55.9 °F|
|Wind Gust:||0.0 mph|
Updated: 6:01 AM EDT on June 09, 2014