Two big storms possible this week followed by deep winter chill

By: sullivanweather , 6:50 PM GMT on January 12, 2008

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Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings

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Commentary

Updated the snowfall map as confidence has increased in bringing the axis of heavier snow a tad further SW.

On a side note: GO GIANTS!!!

I would love to see the G-men whip up on 'dem boys' today. If such a scenario would happend we'd have two Ice Bowls next Sunday with an arctic airmass draped over the northern United States. One in Green Bay and another in Foxboro.

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Regional Forecast

**Two significant snowstorms possible this week**

Fair weather for the next 24 hours as high pressure controls the sensible weather across the Northeast. Next item of interest is an upper disturbance currently over Texas. This feature will spawn an area of low pressure along the Carolina Coastline that will move northeastward Sunday into Monday bringing snow to inland regions with a mix or rain along the coast. Along with the coastal system will be a clipper type low combined with an upper trough that will provide western sections with scattered light snow showers. This upper feature will pull through the remainder of the Northeast Tuesday, keeeping snow showers in the picture. A transient high pressure works across the region Wednesday before a very complicated situation sets up by weeks' end. An arctic front will be marching across the country while at the same time a fairly significant spoke of energy dips down the backside of a deep trough carving itself out over the central/eastern US. A fairly strong, moisture-laden low pressure will develop in the north-central Gulf of Mexico and take a classic Miller type-A storm path. Aforementioned arctic front blasts through the region following this storm system with much below temperatures and lake-effect snows for next weekend and beyond as large circulation polar vortex drops to a position over Hudson Bay.

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Clouds will begin to increase out of the southwest on Sunday as an area of low pressure develops along the Carolina coastline in response to a sharpening 500mb trough and associated vortmax pushing into the Southeast that will tilt negative and eventually cut-off over southeastern New England. This low will ride up the Eastern Seaboard passing about 75-100 miles off the New Jersey Coast Sunday night, over the 40/70 benchmark Monday morning, then up into the Gulf of Maine by Monday afternoon. Given this track a fairly significant snowfall is to be expected along the coastal plain of northeast New Jersey northeastward into New England as well as the adjacent higher terrain to the immediate northwest, including the eastern Poconos, southern Catskills, Taconics and Berkshires. Immediate coastal area of New Jersey, Long Island and Cape Cod sit right on the fence as only a very sliht shift in track would mean a world of difference in a rain vs. snow precipitation-type.

The coastal low won't be the only game in town as a 500mb cut-off drops down over the Great Lakes and could very well be the key in the eventual track of the coastal low. This energy dropping down the backside of the overall 500mb trough will help to lift the energy coming out of the Southeast up the coast in sort of a 'fujiwara effect'. Along with the 500mb cut-off over the Great Lakes will be a clipper type low which will link up with the coastal low through an inverted trough which will act to tap some of the Atlantic moisture and draw it westward, bringing lighter accumulating snow back across the New York Pennsylvania border.

Precipitation will break out north of the Mason-Dixon line around sunset with the leading edge rapidly working its way northeastward reaching southern New England by midnight. A brief period of rain could start things out along the coast as boundary layer temperatures should be well above freezing, but as low pressure gets organized off the coast and heavier precipiation moves in. Dynamic cooling of the column should allow for a rapid changeover to snow. This snow will fall heavy at times as a 850-700mb frontogenesis axis works up the coast, as well as strong lift in a nearly saturated snow growth zone. This could lead to snowfall rates exceeding an inch an hour for several hours during the overnight from metro northeast New Jersey northeastward into southern New England. Good banding will extend northwest on the main frontogenesis band as strong omega from 850-500mb will exist back into the Poconos and Catskills which could lead to enhanced snowfall rates here as well. Models typiclly are very poor at picking up on QPF on the NW fringes of these systems in such events. Further west lighter snows will fall in associated with the clipper system, which will link up to the developing coastal low with an inverted trough.

By Monday morning heavy snowfall will push into southern/central New England as best dynamics/deep moisture pull northeast of the NY/PA/NJ tri-state area. However, with inverted trough/deformation zone hanging back over the area lighter snows will continue. This deformation axis will extent westwards into central Pennsylvania/New York back into the digging upper trough. Monday afternoon sees the low pull into the Gulf of Maine bringing the heaviest snow to coastal/downeast Maine with lighter snows lingering over central New England. A swath of snowfall totals over 6 inches should extend from metro northeastern New Jersey up into coastal Maine, except for a few immediate coastal locations in Long Island and Cape Cod where mixing with rain will be an issue. Lake enhancement won't be of much concern throughout this event as delta T's are marginal, at best, and flow is unconducive.


Temperatures to begin the event along the coastal plain will be in the upper 30's to low 40's, hence the rainy start. Further inland temperatures will be in the low to mid 30's which will easily allow for temperatures to wet bulb to freezing or below once precipitation starts, resulting in snow. During the overnight temperatures will fall to the low 30's as the atmosphere is dynamically cooled along the coastal sections. Furhter inland temperatures will drop back into the upper 20's, giving a better 'fluff factor' to the snow that their neighbors to the southeast won't have. Temperatures climb back into the 30's on Monday.



Snowfall through Monday

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Clouds and snow showers hang back through the region on Tuesday as the upper trough axis swings through. Temperatures will run close to or sligtly above seasonal norms for what is now the coldest part of the year, climatologically.

Gradual clearing takes place Tuesday night as ridging at the surface and aloft begin to build over the region. There could still be a few stray snow showers scattered about over the higher terrain and in and around the snow belts. Temperatures will drop into the teens over the interior with single digits over the higher terrain. Along the coastal plain lows will fall into the upper teens and 20's, which is right around normal for this time of year.

Transient high, initially, will move into the Northeast on Wednesday, bringing a fine day to most with partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies and temperatures running a few degrees above normal - the calm before the storm.

By Wednesday night high pressure will slide northward into New England as an area of low pressure begins to organize over the central Gulf of Mexico, moving into the Southeast. High clouds may begin to increase after midnight as moisture begins to stream up the East Coast. Temperatures will drop quickly after sundown as ideal radiational cooling conditions will exist for the first half of the night. With this being the case, overnight lows could drop slightly below normal.

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Clouds continue to increase on Thursday as low pressure moving out of the Southeast turns the corner and heads up the East Coast. A deep sharp 500mb trough digging into the Ohio Valley will begin to tilt negative and phase with the southern stream disturbance as it reaches the Carolinas. By afternoon light snow will spread up into southern Pennsylvania and New Jersey, perhaps mixing with rain along the immediate coastline. This system will have tremendous amounts of moisture to work with, being of Gulf of Mexico origin. It will also tap into Atlantic moisture as it heads up the coast.

By Thursday night precipitation will overspread the region, falling heavy at times. At this juncture it is too early to depict any sort of rain/snow line with any certainty, but early call is a little northwest of the I-95 corridor. Inland areas will see rather substantial snowfall with some locales seeing a foot or more possible while coastal areas could easily see over an inch of rainfall. Winds will pick up out of the northeast as low pressure deepens rapidly in response to the 500mb trough approaching the coastline. This storm appears to be an inside runner, so a changeover to sleet/freezing rain and even rain can be expected over the eastern half of New England as the storm pulls northward.

The nor'easter rapidly pulls into Maine by Friday morning and off into Canada by afternoon with strong cold air advection in its wake across the Northeast as an arctic airmass blasts into the region. Snow will continue for much of the day over northern New England with areas to the south seeing precipitation taper during the morning hours. Widespread blowing and drifting of snow will take place over the region as gusty northwest winds follow behind the storm in the cold advection pattern. Lake-effect snows will kick into gear as colder air works over the Great Lakes. Temperatures will most likely fall during the day by several degrees with wind chills becoming a factor late in the day.


___________________________________________________________

Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar

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Current Northeast Snowcover

Northeast Snowcover


MODIS Rapid Response satellite photo of Northeast snow cover (12/06/2007)


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Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.

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Great Lakes SST's 12/07/2007

Great Lakes SST's as of 01/02/2008.

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Fillipini's Pond conditions (Lake across street)

11/6: 42°F
11/9: 37°F
11/11: 33°F - 1st morning with grease ice on lake.
11/17: 33°F
11/22: 34°F
11/24: 32°F - patchy ice on lake this morning
11/25: 32°F - lake iced over completely, melting along the shores during the afternoon.
12/1: Patchy ice has been on the lake all week. Lake should freeeze over completely tonight.
12/3: Lake is frozen over and covered with snow. Thickness measurements starting soon.

___________________________________________________________


January Daily Weather Statistics

Date___________Hi/Lo____Precip___Sun___Snow____(Snowdepth)

January 1st - 36°F/18°F....0.26"....20%..3.4"...(10")
January 2nd - 28°F/5°F.....0.01"....75%..0.1"...(13")
January 3rd - 10°F/-5°F....Trace...100%..Trace..(13")
January 4th - 25°F/-3°F....0.00"....30%..0.0"...(13")
January 5th - 36°F/9°F.....0.08"....20%..0.1"...(12")
January 6th - 43°F/29°F....0.02"....0%...0.0"...(11")
January 7th - 56°F/36°F....0.00"....50%..0.0"...(9")
January 8th - 59°F/36°F....0.00"....35%..0.0"...(5")
January 9th - 54°F/35°F....0.34"....40%..0.0"...(2")
January 10th - 39°F/28°F....0.04"....80%..0.0"...(1")
January 11th - 43°F/32°F....0.31"....20%..0.0"...(1")
January 12th - 38°F/27°F....0.00"....20%..0.0"...(1")
January 13th - 36°F/23°F....0.23"....15%..2.7"...(1")


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Viewing: 402 - 352

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402. Spetrm
11:50 AM GMT on January 15, 2008
Its really starting to look like a good north Easter setting up later this week.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 409 Comments: 9857
401. listenerVT
5:55 AM GMT on January 15, 2008
Wow! This thread is over 400 comments now!

I hope Sully isn't "under the weather" again!
Take care, all! ♥
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5525
400. listenerVT
5:57 AM GMT on January 15, 2008
MaineJayhawk...

Yow! Nice!
I wish I could bring my snowshoes!

:~)
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5525
399. listenerVT
5:46 AM GMT on January 15, 2008
WeatherBobNut...
Where are you that this 6-8" will be?
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5525
398. listenerVT
5:45 AM GMT on January 15, 2008
384. TheShovler3 6:03 PM EST on January 14, 2008

Now I wish I'd seen your message earlier.
I haven't gone out to move any snow around,
since we got so little (possibly less than 2").
But if it's heavy, maybe that would have been a good idea.

Hope everyone who had a large load of snow to move
was wise in bending the knees, and took good breaks.
Take care, keep the hot chocolate at the ready.
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5525
397. WeatherBobNut
4:56 AM GMT on January 15, 2008
Did any of you see the long range GFS for January 24th? It's showing a SUPERSTORM! LOL....oh, those darn models!

Picked up a quick 2 inches of wet snow here this evening....Waiting on Thurday and Friday storm now...that one looks good for at least 6-8 inches here!!! :-) Ratios will be at least 15-1 with the colder air rushing in...
396. NumberWise
4:39 AM GMT on January 15, 2008
From my brother, who lives just west of Manchester, NH: 10-12". He lives in the area that you had designated as 8-12", so you were right on in another area.

(P.S. He would like a little less next time, please.)
Member Since: October 22, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1716
395. rmh9903
3:54 AM GMT on January 15, 2008
Sully... Any chance of that large cold blast still coming our way? Or do you see a long term blast of below average temps? I don't want it to last too long but to see some record cold in the Northern VA area's would be neat. Let me test out my new jacket. LOL
394. HeavySnow
3:30 AM GMT on January 15, 2008
I want in on the fun.
Member Since: July 7, 2004 Posts: 18 Comments: 2989
393. bigtrucker
2:53 AM GMT on January 15, 2008
Hi sully, yesterdays storm was a dud along Connecticut coast and even further inland. Even the local met was surprised and he's part of AMS.He said it just goes to show you that we still have a lot to learn about these storms.
It was a tricky one from the get-go anyhow
Member Since: January 9, 2006 Posts: 80 Comments: 6119
392. MaineJayhawk
2:10 AM GMT on January 15, 2008
Storm total for North Waterboro, ME ... 12.5" in about 12 hours time.
391. Zachary Labe
1:19 AM GMT on January 15, 2008
Yea, I saw that snow band in eastern pennsylvania. I heard a report from Scranton that it is snowing moderately and roads are now snow covered.

Here north of Harrisburg, PA just saw some flurries today.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
390. PhillyBurbsTrevosePa
1:13 AM GMT on January 15, 2008
Current Conditions, Langhorne, PA

8:00pm, 35F, Light Snow, Vis 9 Mi, 0" Acc.


It's finally snowing here! Too little, too late...
Member Since: January 2, 2003 Posts: 0 Comments: 162
389. techteacher
12:22 AM GMT on January 15, 2008
Hey Sulli,

Thanks for all the hard work and effort. This last one was tricky. Anyway, do you think we'll see some snow in Milford, CT from Thur/Fri system?
388. Zachary Labe
11:56 PM GMT on January 14, 2008
Ok, thankyou for your response. I agree.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
387. TheShovler3
11:45 PM GMT on January 14, 2008
Bliz, i think its gonna be tough right now i think rain to sleet and snow to all snow at the end, hopefully rapid strengthening can bring in cold air quickly for you. Perhaps a coating -2"
Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2579
386. Zachary Labe
11:33 PM GMT on January 14, 2008
TheShovler3- Do you think I could see any snow accumulation for me 10miles northeast of Harrisburg, PA?
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
385. PhillyBurbsTrevosePa
11:20 PM GMT on January 14, 2008
FOR PHILLY AREA:

Thursday into Friday brings another coastal low to the area. Models
are all in agreement that we will see some affects from the coastal
storm, but as usual, the timing and placement of the system the
main question at this point. Right now it looks very similar to
the storm we just had. The coastal low should move very quickly past
the area, with a secondary low pressure system over the Great
Lakes preventing any really cold air making it to the area. Our
higher elevations and extreme northern counties are the most
likely to see snow, all snow, while other parts of eastern
Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey could see a rain/snow mix,
while the southern half of the County Warning Area sees all rain.

In the far extended, models are showing an area of low pressure
and an associated frontal system moving into the area around next
Tuesday or Wednesday.
Member Since: January 2, 2003 Posts: 0 Comments: 162
384. TheShovler3
11:03 PM GMT on January 14, 2008
how are you Listener...snow was decent here but day warmth and heavy snow condensed the 7.5" into what looks like 4" shoveling was very labor intensive.
Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2579
383. TheShovler3
10:55 PM GMT on January 14, 2008
bliz i think your precips are pretty decent. And i had to modify my previous post... i said east when i mean west. Right now the track is pretty far east in my opinion. i think bulk of the precip goes up from North Jersey through southeast NY into Mid CT, Middle MA
Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2579
382. listenerVT
10:23 PM GMT on January 14, 2008
Evenin' all ♥

Well, we had the first snowflakes just after 8:00am, a dusting by noon, and an inch total by nightfall.

Not exactly snowshoe weather.
Also not exactly sap tapping weather either.
(We did have Vermont maple syrup on our waffles yesterday, though!)
So I suppose it's just, as Elisabeth von Trapp sings:

...a January thaw that melts the freeze
one momentary ease


We had more birds than snow in the yard today.
3 pair of Pine Grosbeaks, a pair of Crows, lots of Chickadees and Juncoes,
and a pair of Northern Cardinals.
I also heard a hoard of House Finches somewhere nearby.
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5525
381. Zachary Labe
10:29 PM GMT on January 14, 2008
Check out my precipitation types outlook map for january 17-18 storm. Let me know what you think. Is there a chance the low could move farthur east?
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
380. TheShovler3
10:25 PM GMT on January 14, 2008
sabesin i see what you're saying. I primarily take note of the qpf rather than pressure. I think the next model runs will have a stronger storm more west than this run.
Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2579
379. sabesin2001
10:19 PM GMT on January 14, 2008
it does looks moist, but the central pressure was 988 over CT in the 00z run, now it's 1008.
378. Drakoen
10:15 PM GMT on January 14, 2008
375. TheShovler3 10:04 PM GMT on January 14, 2008
that could certainly suck.... better start canning food and veggies from now!


LOL yea.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30615
377. TheShovler3
10:14 PM GMT on January 14, 2008
here is the Link to the GFS on the thurs-friday storm
Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2579
376. TheShovler3
10:13 PM GMT on January 14, 2008
sure it does, especially the one that just came out however i think the track is a bit exaggerated to the east.
Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2579
375. TheShovler3
10:04 PM GMT on January 14, 2008
that could certainly suck.... better start canning food and veggies from now!
Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2579
374. sabesin2001
10:11 PM GMT on January 14, 2008
thursday night/friday storm doesn't look very intense on the gfs...
373. Drakoen
9:59 PM GMT on January 14, 2008
Hey Sully earlier in the blog you were talking about extreme cold weather events and how often they occur. Well, how about something a bit sooner.
Link
I read this 4 times over lol.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30615
372. TheShovler3
9:09 PM GMT on January 14, 2008


Look at all that Precip it looks very promising for thurs to friday. if it starts as a mix it surely will get cold enough at the end to turn it to all snow and a high ratio snow. i say generally 15-1 is possible
Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2579
371. cchamp6
8:45 PM GMT on January 14, 2008
Damn it Sully, your fired! LOL Ok, you told me it would start snowing at my house @ 12:23 and I would get 7.8" of snow. You were really bad. It started at 10;05 and we had a range of 5-9 in the Litchfield area. You were way closer than all of our local guys who were predicting 10-15. Good call, Ill be waiting for the thurs./fri. prediction. Hopefully you can improve by then! Elevation played a big role in my area. Thanks for the blog, you do a really nice job.
Member Since: December 21, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 1643
370. lawntonlookers
8:34 PM GMT on January 14, 2008
Just checking out the snow fall. Harrisburg, PA had mostly rain with a few snow showers in the early PM. Not enough to even think of getting a snow fall count.
Member Since: March 22, 2006 Posts: 9 Comments: 1570
369. TheShovler3
8:18 PM GMT on January 14, 2008
just started lightly snowing again.


Sully, How is your snow pack doing.... ours is steadily condensing into itself and becoming very wet. temps at 34 for most of the day. I'd say it looks more like 4" rather than 7.5" as it did this morning.
Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2579
368. LakeShadow
6:53 PM GMT on January 14, 2008
woohoo!!! Now its coming down! we have a steady sleetfall here...starting to cover the ground...c'mon #14.....
Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 2134
367. Bonedog
6:21 PM GMT on January 14, 2008
sullivan good call man. 6 inches of heavy wet snow squarely inside your 4-8 line.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
366. Hurricaneblast
6:19 PM GMT on January 14, 2008
that's a good point Palmyra. It is true that it is very hard to forecast the weather as it can change drasticaly at any moment. from what I've seen this winter, Sulli has been forecasting snowfall better than most of the other places I look at. I give him great credit for the quality of his forecasts.
Member Since: February 14, 2006 Posts: 161 Comments: 3626
365. PalmyraPunishment
6:15 PM GMT on January 14, 2008
hey guys, before you get all butthurt and take it out on Sulli... maybe you should realize that we're just humans trying to grab an interpretation of what THE EARTH is going to do. We have no exact method of forecasting that is going to be 100 percent correct all the time, simply because the earth is well, the earth and who are we to say what it will do, and when?

With all that said, Sulli and all the forecasters and predictors and people who pontificate on this site do a pretty good job, in many cases... a much better job than people in State College, Pennsylvania who consider this their career... so don't be so brash on them...
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
364. Hurricaneblast
6:10 PM GMT on January 14, 2008
something went extremely wrong. Not a single weather forecast was correct here. A mere 1 inch of snow fell by my house out of an expected 7-10 inches. The closest forecast said 3-6 inches of snow. There was about a 1/16 of an inch of freezing rain. This snow is perfect snowball snow however. that would be the only good part about it.
Member Since: February 14, 2006 Posts: 161 Comments: 3626
363. NumberWise
6:06 PM GMT on January 14, 2008
We got 3.5" of new snow. We're just inside your 2-4" snow line, Sully, so here is one that you predicted exactly right!
Member Since: October 22, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1716
362. TheShovler3
5:38 PM GMT on January 14, 2008
Spetrm, its a rough process but it sure is rewarding, knowing that you made what you're eating. Plus just holding on to a past-time is a good feeling! Although i tore my meniscus in my right knee in two places last year treking through the woods
Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2579
361. dean2007
5:08 PM GMT on January 14, 2008
A coating of snow here on the coast and it changed over about three hours ago to a heavy wet, rain like snowfall. For my thoughts on this coming week and long term forecast my blog has been updated. I admit it this storm was bust, esp for the coast and areas south and southwest of CT.
360. Spetrm
5:21 PM GMT on January 14, 2008
Lake I made it once too, burnt myself no fun there.

All the sap is sticky too. Yuck!
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 409 Comments: 9857
359. PhillyBurbsTrevosePa
5:19 PM GMT on January 14, 2008
Hey Newtown. I actually live in Langhorne now, so I'm even closer to you. I'd change my name to PhillyBurbsLanghornePa, but I don't know how lol.

1.5" 07-08 season total so far here in Langhorne, PA. 0" from this last storm.
Member Since: January 2, 2003 Posts: 0 Comments: 162
358. TheShovler3
4:54 PM GMT on January 14, 2008
well then have some Pancakes PP haha.


I have about 250ish trees. i can never seem to keep count.
Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2579
357. MDFirefighter
4:54 PM GMT on January 14, 2008
yay for rain!!!!
Member Since: February 11, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 1201
356. TheShovler3
4:50 PM GMT on January 14, 2008
norfolk, CT at 9.2" as of 9:15 am
Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2579
355. LakeShadow
4:53 PM GMT on January 14, 2008
I made syrup once as a kid, since I bought this house and have these trees, I've been determined to give it a try...
thanks again...as I experiment, I'll be asking you all sorts of questions.
How many trees do you have?
Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 2134
354. PalmyraPunishment
4:53 PM GMT on January 14, 2008
all this talk about maple syrup is making me want pancakes, damnit
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
353. TheShovler3
4:52 PM GMT on January 14, 2008
radar still showing nothing but its still snowing here picked up an 1.2" so far since 8:30am so its 7.4" now at just about noon
Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2579
352. TheShovler3
4:48 PM GMT on January 14, 2008
not a problem, anything i can do to help!
Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2579

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About sullivanweather

Thomas is an avid weather enthusiast, landscaper and organic gardener. This blog is dedicated to Northeast and tropical weather forecasting. Enjoy!

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