Thomas is an avid weather enthusiast, landscaper and organic gardener. This blog is dedicated to Northeast and tropical weather forecasting. Enjoy!
By: sullivanweather , 6:50 PM GMT on January 12, 2008
Current watches, warnings and advisories.
Updated the snowfall map as confidence has increased in bringing the axis of heavier snow a tad further SW.
On a side note: GO GIANTS!!!
I would love to see the G-men whip up on 'dem boys' today. If such a scenario would happend we'd have two Ice Bowls next Sunday with an arctic airmass draped over the northern United States. One in Green Bay and another in Foxboro.
**Two significant snowstorms possible this week**
Fair weather for the next 24 hours as high pressure controls the sensible weather across the Northeast. Next item of interest is an upper disturbance currently over Texas. This feature will spawn an area of low pressure along the Carolina Coastline that will move northeastward Sunday into Monday bringing snow to inland regions with a mix or rain along the coast. Along with the coastal system will be a clipper type low combined with an upper trough that will provide western sections with scattered light snow showers. This upper feature will pull through the remainder of the Northeast Tuesday, keeeping snow showers in the picture. A transient high pressure works across the region Wednesday before a very complicated situation sets up by weeks' end. An arctic front will be marching across the country while at the same time a fairly significant spoke of energy dips down the backside of a deep trough carving itself out over the central/eastern US. A fairly strong, moisture-laden low pressure will develop in the north-central Gulf of Mexico and take a classic Miller type-A storm path. Aforementioned arctic front blasts through the region following this storm system with much below temperatures and lake-effect snows for next weekend and beyond as large circulation polar vortex drops to a position over Hudson Bay.
Clouds will begin to increase out of the southwest on Sunday as an area of low pressure develops along the Carolina coastline in response to a sharpening 500mb trough and associated vortmax pushing into the Southeast that will tilt negative and eventually cut-off over southeastern New England. This low will ride up the Eastern Seaboard passing about 75-100 miles off the New Jersey Coast Sunday night, over the 40/70 benchmark Monday morning, then up into the Gulf of Maine by Monday afternoon. Given this track a fairly significant snowfall is to be expected along the coastal plain of northeast New Jersey northeastward into New England as well as the adjacent higher terrain to the immediate northwest, including the eastern Poconos, southern Catskills, Taconics and Berkshires. Immediate coastal area of New Jersey, Long Island and Cape Cod sit right on the fence as only a very sliht shift in track would mean a world of difference in a rain vs. snow precipitation-type.
The coastal low won't be the only game in town as a 500mb cut-off drops down over the Great Lakes and could very well be the key in the eventual track of the coastal low. This energy dropping down the backside of the overall 500mb trough will help to lift the energy coming out of the Southeast up the coast in sort of a 'fujiwara effect'. Along with the 500mb cut-off over the Great Lakes will be a clipper type low which will link up with the coastal low through an inverted trough which will act to tap some of the Atlantic moisture and draw it westward, bringing lighter accumulating snow back across the New York Pennsylvania border.
Precipitation will break out north of the Mason-Dixon line around sunset with the leading edge rapidly working its way northeastward reaching southern New England by midnight. A brief period of rain could start things out along the coast as boundary layer temperatures should be well above freezing, but as low pressure gets organized off the coast and heavier precipiation moves in. Dynamic cooling of the column should allow for a rapid changeover to snow. This snow will fall heavy at times as a 850-700mb frontogenesis axis works up the coast, as well as strong lift in a nearly saturated snow growth zone. This could lead to snowfall rates exceeding an inch an hour for several hours during the overnight from metro northeast New Jersey northeastward into southern New England. Good banding will extend northwest on the main frontogenesis band as strong omega from 850-500mb will exist back into the Poconos and Catskills which could lead to enhanced snowfall rates here as well. Models typiclly are very poor at picking up on QPF on the NW fringes of these systems in such events. Further west lighter snows will fall in associated with the clipper system, which will link up to the developing coastal low with an inverted trough.
By Monday morning heavy snowfall will push into southern/central New England as best dynamics/deep moisture pull northeast of the NY/PA/NJ tri-state area. However, with inverted trough/deformation zone hanging back over the area lighter snows will continue. This deformation axis will extent westwards into central Pennsylvania/New York back into the digging upper trough. Monday afternoon sees the low pull into the Gulf of Maine bringing the heaviest snow to coastal/downeast Maine with lighter snows lingering over central New England. A swath of snowfall totals over 6 inches should extend from metro northeastern New Jersey up into coastal Maine, except for a few immediate coastal locations in Long Island and Cape Cod where mixing with rain will be an issue. Lake enhancement won't be of much concern throughout this event as delta T's are marginal, at best, and flow is unconducive.
Temperatures to begin the event along the coastal plain will be in the upper 30's to low 40's, hence the rainy start. Further inland temperatures will be in the low to mid 30's which will easily allow for temperatures to wet bulb to freezing or below once precipitation starts, resulting in snow. During the overnight temperatures will fall to the low 30's as the atmosphere is dynamically cooled along the coastal sections. Furhter inland temperatures will drop back into the upper 20's, giving a better 'fluff factor' to the snow that their neighbors to the southeast won't have. Temperatures climb back into the 30's on Monday.
Clouds and snow showers hang back through the region on Tuesday as the upper trough axis swings through. Temperatures will run close to or sligtly above seasonal norms for what is now the coldest part of the year, climatologically.
Gradual clearing takes place Tuesday night as ridging at the surface and aloft begin to build over the region. There could still be a few stray snow showers scattered about over the higher terrain and in and around the snow belts. Temperatures will drop into the teens over the interior with single digits over the higher terrain. Along the coastal plain lows will fall into the upper teens and 20's, which is right around normal for this time of year.
Transient high, initially, will move into the Northeast on Wednesday, bringing a fine day to most with partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies and temperatures running a few degrees above normal - the calm before the storm.
By Wednesday night high pressure will slide northward into New England as an area of low pressure begins to organize over the central Gulf of Mexico, moving into the Southeast. High clouds may begin to increase after midnight as moisture begins to stream up the East Coast. Temperatures will drop quickly after sundown as ideal radiational cooling conditions will exist for the first half of the night. With this being the case, overnight lows could drop slightly below normal.
Clouds continue to increase on Thursday as low pressure moving out of the Southeast turns the corner and heads up the East Coast. A deep sharp 500mb trough digging into the Ohio Valley will begin to tilt negative and phase with the southern stream disturbance as it reaches the Carolinas. By afternoon light snow will spread up into southern Pennsylvania and New Jersey, perhaps mixing with rain along the immediate coastline. This system will have tremendous amounts of moisture to work with, being of Gulf of Mexico origin. It will also tap into Atlantic moisture as it heads up the coast.
By Thursday night precipitation will overspread the region, falling heavy at times. At this juncture it is too early to depict any sort of rain/snow line with any certainty, but early call is a little northwest of the I-95 corridor. Inland areas will see rather substantial snowfall with some locales seeing a foot or more possible while coastal areas could easily see over an inch of rainfall. Winds will pick up out of the northeast as low pressure deepens rapidly in response to the 500mb trough approaching the coastline. This storm appears to be an inside runner, so a changeover to sleet/freezing rain and even rain can be expected over the eastern half of New England as the storm pulls northward.
The nor'easter rapidly pulls into Maine by Friday morning and off into Canada by afternoon with strong cold air advection in its wake across the Northeast as an arctic airmass blasts into the region. Snow will continue for much of the day over northern New England with areas to the south seeing precipitation taper during the morning hours. Widespread blowing and drifting of snow will take place over the region as gusty northwest winds follow behind the storm in the cold advection pattern. Lake-effect snows will kick into gear as colder air works over the Great Lakes. Temperatures will most likely fall during the day by several degrees with wind chills becoming a factor late in the day.
Radar: Northeast Region Loop
Current Northeast Snowcover
MODIS Rapid Response satellite photo of Northeast snow cover (12/06/2007)
Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.
Great Lakes SST's as of 01/02/2008.
Fillipini's Pond conditions (Lake across street)
11/11: 33°F - 1st morning with grease ice on lake.
11/24: 32°F - patchy ice on lake this morning
11/25: 32°F - lake iced over completely, melting along the shores during the afternoon.
12/1: Patchy ice has been on the lake all week. Lake should freeeze over completely tonight.
12/3: Lake is frozen over and covered with snow. Thickness measurements starting soon.
January Daily Weather Statistics
January 1st - 36°F/18°F....0.26"....20%..3.4"...(10")
January 2nd - 28°F/5°F.....0.01"....75%..0.1"...(13")
January 3rd - 10°F/-5°F....Trace...100%..Trace..(13")
January 4th - 25°F/-3°F....0.00"....30%..0.0"...(13")
January 5th - 36°F/9°F.....0.08"....20%..0.1"...(12")
January 6th - 43°F/29°F....0.02"....0%...0.0"...(11")
January 7th - 56°F/36°F....0.00"....50%..0.0"...(9")
January 8th - 59°F/36°F....0.00"....35%..0.0"...(5")
January 9th - 54°F/35°F....0.34"....40%..0.0"...(2")
January 10th - 39°F/28°F....0.04"....80%..0.0"...(1")
January 11th - 43°F/32°F....0.31"....20%..0.0"...(1")
January 12th - 38°F/27°F....0.00"....20%..0.0"...(1")
January 13th - 36°F/23°F....0.23"....15%..2.7"...(1")
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