One two Winter punch

By: sullivanweather , 10:26 AM GMT on December 13, 2007

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Current watches, warnings and advisories.

Eastern US current watches/warnings


***Heavy snow threat area***

Radar zoom - heavy snow area

Northeast Pennsylvania, south-central New York eastwards into the Catskills, Berkshires and the hills of northwestern Conecticut should see eight inches to a foot of snowfall today.

This radar close-up will focus on this area today as very heavy snowfall rates of 1-2" per hour will be common this afternoon.


Regional Forecast

The Northeast will bare the brunt of two winter storms over the next several days followed by the coldest airmass of the season. A fast moving low pressure system will bring a round of heavy precipitation to the southern two thirds of the region on Thursday. This low rockets offshore during the evening hours with a cold front following for Friday. Sprawling high pressure builds into the Northeast from Canada ahead of the next system, a possible major nor'easter, that will move into the Northeast late in the day on Saturday and stick around until Sunday night before pulling off into the Canadian Maritimes. Coldest air of the season follows for Monday with slight moderation Tuesday and more so by Wednesday as flow turns zonal across the country and arctic air retreats north of Hudson Bay into the Canadian Archipeligo.


The last storm in a series of low pressure systems that have plagued the country with devastating ice storms, bouts of snow and flooding rains will move into the Northeast on Thursday. Fed by a sub-tropical jet and and a wide open Gulf of Mexico, copious amounts of moisture will overrun a cold airmass in place over the Northeast resulting in a widespread significant snowfall. In southwestern Pennsylvania precipitation is falling as a mix of snow sleet and freezing rain that will change to rain during the morning hours, then back to snow during the afternoon once low pressure passes. Elsewhere over the Northeast snow will develop during the morning hours from southwest to northeast reaching into New England by early afternoon.

It will be tricky trying to determine where the borders of the transition zones will be with this storm. Warm layer above 800mb could allow for sleet to mix in with the snow within 50 miles of the coastline (25 miles for the New England coast) west into central Pennsylvania. There could also be a change to plain rain along the south shore of Long Island and into the New York City metro area. Over inland central New Jersey and east-central Pennsylvania snow will change to a mix of sleet and freezing rain after a couple of inches of accumulation. Some factors, such as precipitation intensity may be able to overcome some of the atmosphere's temperature shortcomings, however, and any heavier burst of precipitation within the transition zone, especially where sleet is the dominate precipitation type at the time, could quickly change to heavy accumulating snow.

Further northward where precipitation falls as all snow conditions will deteriorate quickly as snow will gain in intensity during the morning hours. By afternoon a full-fledged snowstorm will be well on its way. Snowfall rates of one to two inches per hour thanks to a 700mb frontogenisis axis that will slide eastwards along the New York-Pennsylvania border into interior southern New England. Only limiting factor to seeing some really impressive accumulations are temperatures in the snow growth zone will not be optimal, leading to lower snow:liquid ratios around 10-12 to 1. None-the-less, snow amounts of 6 to 12 inches due to three quarters of an inch to an inch of QPF. Further north precipitation amounts will be less as best moisture and lift move by to the south, but prime temperatures in the snow growth region will lead to higher snow:liquid ratios, around 15-18 to 1. Snowfall here will average from 4 to 8 inches from north-central New York to the Capitol District into northern Massachusetts, southern New Hampshire and southern Vermont. Northern New York eastwards into southern Maine snowfall will generally be under 3 inches.

Northern New England should escape the snow from this system as high pressure remains in control with partly cloudy skies.

Temperatures will range from the teens over northern New York and northern New England, to the 20's over much of the rest of the interior. Along the coastal plain from New York City south and southeastern/southwestern Pennsylvania temperatures will reach into the 30's.

Snowfall through Friday

Low pressure moves offshore tonight with steady snow exiting the Northeast during the evening hours. Snow showers and freezing drizzle will be left in its wake along with a heafty accumulation of snow. There will be some enhancement of the snow showers around the Great Lakes where a few inches of accumulation can be expected in the snow belts. Otherwise expect mostly cloudy skies with a light westerly breeze. Temperatures will drop around 10 degrees from daily highs.


Upper trough and surface cold front pulls through the Northest on Friday with snow showers for the interior. Enhancement around the lakes and in upslope areas of northern New York and northern New England could deposit a couple of inches of snow. Skies will be mostly cloudy over the interior with partly cloudy skies along the coastal plain. By mid-afternoon clouds will begin to decrease in coverage as dry air advects into the area in front of a building area of high pressure. Temperatures will reach into the low 40's along the coastal plain extending up to the New York City metro area. The southern half of Pennsylvania eastward into southern New England will see highs in the 30's. Further north over the interior 20's will be common with teens over the higher terrain of northern New England. These readings will be near normal along the coast and southern areas to around 5 to 10 degrees below normal over northern areas.

Any lingering snow showers end Friday night as high pressure noses its way into the Northeast. Clear skies and calm winds with fresh deep snow pack will allow for temperatures to plummet. Single digits and teens will be common over most of the interior with below zero readings commong over the higher elevations of northern New York and New England. Temperatures along the coastline from the New York City area south will fall into the low to mid 20's.


**Major Nor'easter becoming more likely this weekend**

Saturday will start fair and very cold with clouds spreading into the Northeast from the southwest during the morning hours, eventually spreading over most of the Northeast by the afternoon. Snow will start to fall over southern Pennsylvania after noon, making steady progress northward. Temperatures will be close to 10 degrees below normal.

By Saturday the storm really gets cranking with snow quickly overspreading the Northeast. Snow will change to sleet and freezing rain over southern Pennsylvania and central/southern New Jersey as warmer air aloft moves into the southern portions of the region. Over northern Pennsylvania and New York State snow will be falling, heavy at times. Over 6 inches of snow is possible by daybreak. Further northward into northern New York and eastwards into central/southern New England snow will move into after midnight with accumulations of just a couple of inches by morning. Northern New England will remain dry. Temperatures will be average close to 5-10 degrees below normal north, and close to average south.

Storm continues into the day on Sunday with heavy snows across the far interior and coastal rain. From 25-75 miles inland will exist a transition zone of sleet and freezing rain. Significant accumulations of snow will fall over the interior of the Northeast with amounts over a foot possible during the day on Sunday. Closer to the coast sleet accumulations of an inch or two could fall as well as areas that could receive a 1/4 to 1/2 inch glazing of freezing rain. Winds will begin to howl as low pressure bombs near Long Island and move to a position just east of Cape Cod by late in the afternoon. Surf will increase along the coast and the possibility of coastal flooding and overwash will be of concern. Along the coast 1 to 2 inches of rainfall is also possible, leading to poor drainage/low-lying flooding, especially with fresh snow pack along the southern New England coast from Thursday's snow. Strom drains could be blocked by piles of snow, exacerbating and potential flooding issues.

Strong <980mb Nor'easter pulls into the Gulf of Maine Sunday night bringing the heavy snows into northern New England. Any rain/mixed precipitation will change to snow and end as snow showers and flurries along the coast. Wraparound moisture will bring scattered snow showers and light snowfall over the interior of New York with enhancement off the lakes as arctic air gets drawn into the Northeast behind the departing storm. Winds will be out of the northwest at 20-30mph and remain gusty throughout the night with widespread blowing and drifting snow. Temperatures will average around 5 degrees below normal over western sections, but close to normal over eastern sections with clouds and precipitation keeping temperatures up.


Low pressure moves into the Canadian Maritimes on Monday leaving behind blustery conditions with upslope snow showers over the higher terrain of northern New England and lake-effect snows during the morning. By afternoon winds will decrease and terrain enhanced snow showers will be on the wane. Lake-effect snow will still persist, but will decrease in coverage and intensity as drier air advects into the area and flow goes anti-cylonic as high pressure builds into the region bringing the coldest airmass of the season with it. Temperatures will average 10-15 degrees below normal.

Zonal flow develops on Tuesday and Wednesday allowing for temperatures to moderate over the Northeast, although they will remain below seasonal norms.

Northern stream trough could appraoch by Thursday spreading snow showers back into the region with the most coverage over the north country.


Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar


Current Northeast Snowcover

Northeast Snowcover

MODIS Rapid Response satellite photo of Northeast snow cover (12/06/2007)


Local SST's

Northeast SST's

Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.


Great Lakes SST's 12/07/2007

Great Lakes SST's as of 12/07/2007.


Fillipini's Pond conditions (Lake across street)

11/6: 42°F
11/9: 37°F
11/11: 33°F - 1st morning with grease ice on lake.
11/17: 33°F
11/22: 34°F
11/24: 32°F - patchy ice on lake this morning
11/25: 32°F - lake iced over completely, melting along the shores during the afternoon.
12/1: Patchy ice has been on the lake all week. Lake should freeeze over completely tonight.
12/3: Lake is frozen over and covered with snow. Thickness measurements starting soon.


December Daily Weather Statistics


December 1st - 28°F/11°F....Trace....80%..Trace..(0")
December 2nd - 30°F/12°F....0.32"....0%...3.8"...(3")
December 3rd - 36°F/22°F....0.43"....10%..1.8"...(3")
December 4th - 22°F/18°F....0.03"....10%..0.6"...(4")
December 5th - 21°F/14°F....0.02"....0%...0.3"...(4")
December 6th - 28°F/9°F.....0.00"....95%..0.0"...(3")
December 7th - 25°F/9°F.....0.06"....10%..0.9"...(4")
December 8th - 36°F/24°F....0.00"....25%..0.0"...(3")
December 9th - 30°F/23°F....0.24"....0%...0.0"...(3")
December 10th - 34°F/27°F....0.11"....0%..0.0"...(3")
December 11th - 32°F/19°F....0.17"....35%..0.0"...(2")
December 12th - 41°F/27°F....0.14"....50%..Trace..(2")

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Big Flakes (sullivanweather)
Large snowflakes started falling around 10am this morning. Good photo opp...
Big Flakes

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224. listenerVT
6:15 AM GMT on December 16, 2007
I'm in the RED advisory section that promises snow totals in the 18 " range.

Tonight the local news said 10-14"

Here in the hometown of Wilson A. "Snowflake" Bentley,
we'll be keeping a close eye on the type of snow and the total accumulation.
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5797
223. dean2007
5:56 PM GMT on December 14, 2007
I know its wierd to write a long term discussion before a rather intense storm hits the US this weekend, but for whoever would love to, a have written a long term 12z GFS discussion and what I see can unfold to be a day after Christmas Storm for the 26th.
221. Bonedog
5:04 PM GMT on December 14, 2007

NOUS42 KNHC 141500
1000 AM EST FRI 14 DEC 2007
VALID 15/1100Z TO 16/1100Z DEC 2007
WSPOD NUMBER.....07-0143

1. FLIGHT 0NE -- TEAL 70
A. A62/ TROUT(30.4N 77.0W) / 16/0000Z
C. 15/1615Z
E. 30,000 FT/ 16/0100Z

here is the area they will be flying into.
Image is centered 30.43N 77.82W
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
220. LakeShadow
4:57 PM GMT on December 14, 2007
Wow Bone, I read on your blog the HH are flying in...
Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 2134
219. StormJunkie
3:29 PM GMT on December 14, 2007
Morning sulli, hope all is well up N.

Congrats on the link in DR M's blog. Very cool :~)
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 17009
218. Bonedog
11:12 AM GMT on December 14, 2007
Morning Folks.

Well round one is over, ready for round two.

Sullivan FYI snow ended around 8:15pm in West Milford. My snow depth guage read 6.25 inches.

Might be a little less only because we had about 4 hrs of sleet then 2 to 3 hrs of very fluffy snow on top of it. Lets say a good 5.75 inches if you packed it all together.

Would have been more except the sleet was predominant. Thus limiting the snow pack.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
217. wfreeck
7:49 AM GMT on December 14, 2007
Bad news guys (good news for me and Witnerstormblog), now the NAM and UMKET have been becoming less consistant with developing a new surface low over the Atlantic, but instead just deepening and rapidly strengthening the original low over Ohio/Kentucky. It will slow down briefly according these 2 models and stregthen before racing NE.

The GFS is even showing that to an extent, but still tries to hint a low developing off the coast, but only briefly. It doesn't slwo down the system though as it stregthens though.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 124 Comments: 3535
215. Fshhead
7:34 AM GMT on December 14, 2007
Hey Sully,
LOL Hey remember u took all that flak before when u said arson was probably behind the fires??

Arrests made in Malibu wildfire
Member Since: November 19, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 9960
214. sullivanweather
4:19 AM GMT on December 14, 2007

Big question now is how long does the high hold on in the Northeast?

I notice that this run of the GFS keeps the 850mb line to my south, but 1000-500mb thicknesses are around 550dm, so there should be a fair amount of sleet here.

I think models will shift north or hold steady for one more run(06z run uses much of the same data as the 00z run), then come about 50 or so miles back to the southeast with the 12z runs.

Preliminary track thinking is from AKQ-DOX-LGA-CQX for the secondary
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
213. undoubtable
4:18 AM GMT on December 14, 2007
Thanks for rubbing it in Michigan guy. You get to sleep nice and comfortably while I have nightmares. However, even though the chances of the westerly track seem pretty good, I wouldn't pop the Champaign just yet.
212. Winterstormsblog
4:08 AM GMT on December 14, 2007
I LOVE the new GFS!!! brings near an 1.00 of precip which will be snow for me in SE michigan...yeah!

if u havent noticed most of the 00z runs tonight have been pretty consistent....the NAM, the GFS, and the UKMET all pretty much show the same storm track up thru ohio.... (the initial low that is)
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 86 Comments: 5650
211. sabesin2001
3:57 AM GMT on December 14, 2007
GFS pulling low way west now too...
210. dean2007
3:43 AM GMT on December 14, 2007
That's suppose to be now, not no.
209. dean2007
3:43 AM GMT on December 14, 2007
I agree, no its time to go to bed.
208. undoubtable
3:35 AM GMT on December 14, 2007
The 00zNAM does not seem to fit the pattern of a typical Nor'Easter. Forecasting this storm will be so difficult, and even if I don't get my snowfall, it will still be exciting to watch it play out.
207. dean2007
2:57 AM GMT on December 14, 2007
OK eaglesrock, tomorrow morning?
206. eaglesrock
2:54 AM GMT on December 14, 2007
Already looked Dean. But I have to get to bed, so I can't comment right now.
205. dean2007
2:51 AM GMT on December 14, 2007
I agree eaglesrock. I have done a whole blog updated post on the Blizzard of 2005 and its impacts, please check the blog if you can?
204. eaglesrock
2:49 AM GMT on December 14, 2007
I'm siding with the GFS on this one. The NAM has been way off this winter for a lot of things.
203. sullivanweather
2:38 AM GMT on December 14, 2007
Check out the 00zNAM run...

It's on the complete other side of the GFS right now, wrapping the primary low up over northern Kentucky...weird stuff going on with that model...

Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
202. TheShovler3
2:27 AM GMT on December 14, 2007
so whats the consensus on the sat-sunday storm

i like nam track but GFS moisture
Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2579
201. edhanna
2:20 AM GMT on December 14, 2007
200. sullivanweather
2:16 AM GMT on December 14, 2007
Albany, WFO:




So much for that plan, eh Binghamton?
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
199. sullivanweather
2:07 AM GMT on December 14, 2007

Both Bignhamton AND Buffalo have issued 5th period winter storm watches. Looks like they couldn't wait for this first one to get over with, could they?
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
198. MDFirefighter
2:00 AM GMT on December 14, 2007
nice map eagles rock. i'll gladly take 3-6 :)
Member Since: February 11, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 1201
197. dean2007
1:35 AM GMT on December 14, 2007
I got probably around 5-6" at the most because the snow changed to sleet at the end when the heaviest snow bands came through. I got jipped by sleet as well.
196. TheShovler3
1:16 AM GMT on December 14, 2007
Here is a link to what the grill looks like afterwards.
Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2579
195. TheShovler3
1:09 AM GMT on December 14, 2007
we topped out at just over 10" here about 10.25"
Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2579
194. SarahLawrenceScott
12:57 AM GMT on December 14, 2007
Does anyone know how to find archived records of Winter Storm Warnings for a specific location for the last few years? The college I work for (hint: look at my handle) has a tendency to decide in the middle of the day to cancel afternoon classes. That's what happened today. I think I can make an argument that the NWS has been accurate enough with Winter Storm Warnings that the closure could be predicted based on the warning, and people who don't have morning classes could stay home in the first place. I have a record of past closures, but to establish the correlation I need the record of past warnings...
193. eaglesrock
12:47 AM GMT on December 14, 2007
Here's my thinking on the storm:

192. dean2007
12:11 AM GMT on December 14, 2007
With a large and intense band over us the temps have risen just a bit over freezing and there are large snowflakes falling. Although the sleet as turned to large snowflakes its just a tad to warm for a huge burst of heavy snow, which stinks we could have had 10" easily even it wasn't for this stupid warm air invasion.
191. eaglesrock
12:08 AM GMT on December 14, 2007
I plan on making a snowfall map later, too.

One question: What will be the precip type if the sfc temp is 34 and the 850 mb temp is 30?
190. dean2007
11:57 PM GMT on December 13, 2007
Wow a pattern where the extremes continue for the next few weeks, potential is there quite interesting! As for tonights storm the transition to sleet has occurred and the snow amounts have seized to 4" with the sleet compacting the snow. So I guess WSB was right about the transition. As for this weekend storm, there won't be any real accuracy with the models until the disturbance hits and develops over TExas. The latest 18Z run of the GFS for this weekend's storm shows a further east route then its previous run 12z is this a trend? WHo knows but we will have a better idea tomorrow for the 12Z runs. So please stay tuned. I will update my blog tonight with a written discussion. Tomorrow I will have a full update with a snowfall map sometime tomorrow after the 12Z runs or maybe after the 18Z, but hopefully not until then or I will jump the gun to early as I have learned these past few storms.
189. sullivanweather
11:43 PM GMT on December 13, 2007
A quick thought on the recent 3 or 4 days of GFS runs in the long range.

This model has consistantly shown a storm on the 21/22nd and the 25/26th. For the most part we've been under warm enough air for rain for much of the Northeast. Over the last 3 or 4 runs however this model has been trending colder with these storms and now shows the transition zone somewhere across the Northeast. These storms also look to be big precipitation producers as they take a southern route on their way to the Northeast, picking up Gulf moisture. The future snowpack from both today's storm and the upcoming nor'easter should be substantial and help to keep cold air hanging around, perhaps longer than models currently indicate. There's also a snow/ICE pack building up over the Midwest which should also help to temper and potential warm airmass en route.

Bottom line is one, or both of these potential storms could turn out being snow/ice producers. Time shall tell and the first potential storm will be in the GFS's 'range of accuracy' in about 2 days. So lots to look out for in the long range beyond the upcoming nor'easter.

On a side note, the ECMWF indicates a mini-snowstorm due to a clipper w/ coastal redevelopment in the Wednesday/Thursday timeframe of next week. The ECMWF has been leaps and bounds above the other models performance-wise thus far this winter and could be on to something here.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
188. weatherkid23
11:40 PM GMT on December 13, 2007
yo sullivan post a comment on my blog please
Member Since: September 28, 2007 Posts: 33 Comments: 68
187. TheShovler3
11:33 PM GMT on December 13, 2007
yeah, UPSTATE NY Snow list

thats for some snow totals off a local out of albany.
Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2579
186. sullivanweather
11:28 PM GMT on December 13, 2007
Hey Rob!

Yeah, I bet you haave your hands full now...

I hope everything is doing great, new daddy.

If the models verify for this upcoming Nor'easter you should have plenty of snow to play
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
185. sullivanweather
11:27 PM GMT on December 13, 2007
Hey Dstar!

Thank you for the report! Thus far you're the highest amount reported here in the area. Seems as though you found yourself right under the 850mb frontogenesis band and in the deep moisture AND cold enough for all snow. Way to go, chap!

I scouted the NWS storm reports and the next highest I've seen was Kingston @ 10".

Libertygirl in Liberty, NY got 10" the last I heard from her.

I'm at 9.6" but the last snow shower on radar is moving though as I type. Should end right where I'm at unless a burst of big fluffy flakes comes down for a few min, but snow is already starting to settle, so I should just send my report into the NWS now.

Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
184. sullivanweather
11:21 PM GMT on December 13, 2007
snow started 7:49am



Still a bit of light snow falling, but for the most part the main show is over. I'll be outside at 7pm to take my final measurement of the storm.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
183. TheShovler3
11:19 PM GMT on December 13, 2007
real storms they are, i'd say the most i can hope for right now with this is around 10.5-11" Dstar you look like the winner around here congrats
Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2579
182. Spetrm
11:08 PM GMT on December 13, 2007
Lots of snow tonight! Thanks for keeping everyone informed sully!

I havent been around to much latly to do so and well I won't be for awhile. Expecially when I go to NEW YORK in two weeks! HURRAH! I get to play in snow! LOL
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 411 Comments: 9859
181. dstar2002
11:07 PM GMT on December 13, 2007
phew...been busy day

over here in north central ct we have 11" with steady snow still falling hard, probably for the next hour or two, so we could easily end up with 13-14" as its currently falling about 1.5" an hour

I gotta get back into the jist of things, cant believe we have real storms in december lol....valentines day flop last winter was the best chat, worst winter ever lol....thankfully this one looks much more promising
Member Since: February 11, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 79
180. sullivanweather
11:00 PM GMT on December 13, 2007
Yeah, we're getting one of those trailing bands right now...

They're a bit heavier than they appear on radar....snow is still falling pretty good here in nice big flakes, but falling gentle-like.

Should round out this storm around 9.6" or so...

As a matter of fact, it's time for my hourly measurement...
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
179. TheShovler3
10:53 PM GMT on December 13, 2007
yes thankfully! i am very grateful for that!.... still snowing where you are? its tapering off here but looks like two more tailing bands will hit us
Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2579
178. sullivanweather
10:51 PM GMT on December 13, 2007

That's awesome, bro!!

Thankfully no ice for those precious sugar maples of yours ;0)
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
177. TheShovler3
10:50 PM GMT on December 13, 2007
9.5" with some compaction i'll take a picture later, the lawn chairs from the summer look pretty cool.
Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2579
176. sullivanweather
10:40 PM GMT on December 13, 2007
Same thing here...sort of.

Once the sleet changed back to snow we got about 8" in 3 hours before we got dryslotted.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
175. sullivanweather
10:38 PM GMT on December 13, 2007
The GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian global models show a west track.

NAM/WRF shows a track that would favor more snow closer to the coast.

The SREF, GEFS, NOGAPS show the low tracking right over the benchmark...

I guess it's still to early to start jumping to conclusions.

Prrobably won't have a good model consensus until the 12z model runs tomorrow morning.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
174. undoubtable
10:38 PM GMT on December 13, 2007
If this turns out to be anything like Valentine's Day, I will be a happy man. We received 15in over a span of approx. five hours, and that's after a majority of the storm brought around 4.5in of sleet

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Thomas is an avid weather enthusiast, landscaper and organic gardener. This blog is dedicated to Northeast and tropical weather forecasting. Enjoy!

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