Thomas is an avid weather enthusiast, landscaper and organic gardener. This blog is dedicated to Northeast and tropical weather forecasting. Enjoy!
By: sullivanweather , 10:26 AM GMT on December 13, 2007
Current watches, warnings and advisories.
***Heavy snow threat area***
Northeast Pennsylvania, south-central New York eastwards into the Catskills, Berkshires and the hills of northwestern Conecticut should see eight inches to a foot of snowfall today.
This radar close-up will focus on this area today as very heavy snowfall rates of 1-2" per hour will be common this afternoon.
The Northeast will bare the brunt of two winter storms over the next several days followed by the coldest airmass of the season. A fast moving low pressure system will bring a round of heavy precipitation to the southern two thirds of the region on Thursday. This low rockets offshore during the evening hours with a cold front following for Friday. Sprawling high pressure builds into the Northeast from Canada ahead of the next system, a possible major nor'easter, that will move into the Northeast late in the day on Saturday and stick around until Sunday night before pulling off into the Canadian Maritimes. Coldest air of the season follows for Monday with slight moderation Tuesday and more so by Wednesday as flow turns zonal across the country and arctic air retreats north of Hudson Bay into the Canadian Archipeligo.
The last storm in a series of low pressure systems that have plagued the country with devastating ice storms, bouts of snow and flooding rains will move into the Northeast on Thursday. Fed by a sub-tropical jet and and a wide open Gulf of Mexico, copious amounts of moisture will overrun a cold airmass in place over the Northeast resulting in a widespread significant snowfall. In southwestern Pennsylvania precipitation is falling as a mix of snow sleet and freezing rain that will change to rain during the morning hours, then back to snow during the afternoon once low pressure passes. Elsewhere over the Northeast snow will develop during the morning hours from southwest to northeast reaching into New England by early afternoon.
It will be tricky trying to determine where the borders of the transition zones will be with this storm. Warm layer above 800mb could allow for sleet to mix in with the snow within 50 miles of the coastline (25 miles for the New England coast) west into central Pennsylvania. There could also be a change to plain rain along the south shore of Long Island and into the New York City metro area. Over inland central New Jersey and east-central Pennsylvania snow will change to a mix of sleet and freezing rain after a couple of inches of accumulation. Some factors, such as precipitation intensity may be able to overcome some of the atmosphere's temperature shortcomings, however, and any heavier burst of precipitation within the transition zone, especially where sleet is the dominate precipitation type at the time, could quickly change to heavy accumulating snow.
Further northward where precipitation falls as all snow conditions will deteriorate quickly as snow will gain in intensity during the morning hours. By afternoon a full-fledged snowstorm will be well on its way. Snowfall rates of one to two inches per hour thanks to a 700mb frontogenisis axis that will slide eastwards along the New York-Pennsylvania border into interior southern New England. Only limiting factor to seeing some really impressive accumulations are temperatures in the snow growth zone will not be optimal, leading to lower snow:liquid ratios around 10-12 to 1. None-the-less, snow amounts of 6 to 12 inches due to three quarters of an inch to an inch of QPF. Further north precipitation amounts will be less as best moisture and lift move by to the south, but prime temperatures in the snow growth region will lead to higher snow:liquid ratios, around 15-18 to 1. Snowfall here will average from 4 to 8 inches from north-central New York to the Capitol District into northern Massachusetts, southern New Hampshire and southern Vermont. Northern New York eastwards into southern Maine snowfall will generally be under 3 inches.
Northern New England should escape the snow from this system as high pressure remains in control with partly cloudy skies.
Temperatures will range from the teens over northern New York and northern New England, to the 20's over much of the rest of the interior. Along the coastal plain from New York City south and southeastern/southwestern Pennsylvania temperatures will reach into the 30's.
Low pressure moves offshore tonight with steady snow exiting the Northeast during the evening hours. Snow showers and freezing drizzle will be left in its wake along with a heafty accumulation of snow. There will be some enhancement of the snow showers around the Great Lakes where a few inches of accumulation can be expected in the snow belts. Otherwise expect mostly cloudy skies with a light westerly breeze. Temperatures will drop around 10 degrees from daily highs.
Upper trough and surface cold front pulls through the Northest on Friday with snow showers for the interior. Enhancement around the lakes and in upslope areas of northern New York and northern New England could deposit a couple of inches of snow. Skies will be mostly cloudy over the interior with partly cloudy skies along the coastal plain. By mid-afternoon clouds will begin to decrease in coverage as dry air advects into the area in front of a building area of high pressure. Temperatures will reach into the low 40's along the coastal plain extending up to the New York City metro area. The southern half of Pennsylvania eastward into southern New England will see highs in the 30's. Further north over the interior 20's will be common with teens over the higher terrain of northern New England. These readings will be near normal along the coast and southern areas to around 5 to 10 degrees below normal over northern areas.
Any lingering snow showers end Friday night as high pressure noses its way into the Northeast. Clear skies and calm winds with fresh deep snow pack will allow for temperatures to plummet. Single digits and teens will be common over most of the interior with below zero readings commong over the higher elevations of northern New York and New England. Temperatures along the coastline from the New York City area south will fall into the low to mid 20's.
**Major Nor'easter becoming more likely this weekend**
Saturday will start fair and very cold with clouds spreading into the Northeast from the southwest during the morning hours, eventually spreading over most of the Northeast by the afternoon. Snow will start to fall over southern Pennsylvania after noon, making steady progress northward. Temperatures will be close to 10 degrees below normal.
By Saturday the storm really gets cranking with snow quickly overspreading the Northeast. Snow will change to sleet and freezing rain over southern Pennsylvania and central/southern New Jersey as warmer air aloft moves into the southern portions of the region. Over northern Pennsylvania and New York State snow will be falling, heavy at times. Over 6 inches of snow is possible by daybreak. Further northward into northern New York and eastwards into central/southern New England snow will move into after midnight with accumulations of just a couple of inches by morning. Northern New England will remain dry. Temperatures will be average close to 5-10 degrees below normal north, and close to average south.
Storm continues into the day on Sunday with heavy snows across the far interior and coastal rain. From 25-75 miles inland will exist a transition zone of sleet and freezing rain. Significant accumulations of snow will fall over the interior of the Northeast with amounts over a foot possible during the day on Sunday. Closer to the coast sleet accumulations of an inch or two could fall as well as areas that could receive a 1/4 to 1/2 inch glazing of freezing rain. Winds will begin to howl as low pressure bombs near Long Island and move to a position just east of Cape Cod by late in the afternoon. Surf will increase along the coast and the possibility of coastal flooding and overwash will be of concern. Along the coast 1 to 2 inches of rainfall is also possible, leading to poor drainage/low-lying flooding, especially with fresh snow pack along the southern New England coast from Thursday's snow. Strom drains could be blocked by piles of snow, exacerbating and potential flooding issues.
Strong <980mb Nor'easter pulls into the Gulf of Maine Sunday night bringing the heavy snows into northern New England. Any rain/mixed precipitation will change to snow and end as snow showers and flurries along the coast. Wraparound moisture will bring scattered snow showers and light snowfall over the interior of New York with enhancement off the lakes as arctic air gets drawn into the Northeast behind the departing storm. Winds will be out of the northwest at 20-30mph and remain gusty throughout the night with widespread blowing and drifting snow. Temperatures will average around 5 degrees below normal over western sections, but close to normal over eastern sections with clouds and precipitation keeping temperatures up.
Low pressure moves into the Canadian Maritimes on Monday leaving behind blustery conditions with upslope snow showers over the higher terrain of northern New England and lake-effect snows during the morning. By afternoon winds will decrease and terrain enhanced snow showers will be on the wane. Lake-effect snow will still persist, but will decrease in coverage and intensity as drier air advects into the area and flow goes anti-cylonic as high pressure builds into the region bringing the coldest airmass of the season with it. Temperatures will average 10-15 degrees below normal.
Zonal flow develops on Tuesday and Wednesday allowing for temperatures to moderate over the Northeast, although they will remain below seasonal norms.
Northern stream trough could appraoch by Thursday spreading snow showers back into the region with the most coverage over the north country.
Radar: Northeast Region Loop
Current Northeast Snowcover
MODIS Rapid Response satellite photo of Northeast snow cover (12/06/2007)
Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.
Great Lakes SST's as of 12/07/2007.
Fillipini's Pond conditions (Lake across street)
11/11: 33°F - 1st morning with grease ice on lake.
11/24: 32°F - patchy ice on lake this morning
11/25: 32°F - lake iced over completely, melting along the shores during the afternoon.
12/1: Patchy ice has been on the lake all week. Lake should freeeze over completely tonight.
12/3: Lake is frozen over and covered with snow. Thickness measurements starting soon.
December Daily Weather Statistics
December 1st - 28°F/11°F....Trace....80%..Trace..(0")
December 2nd - 30°F/12°F....0.32"....0%...3.8"...(3")
December 3rd - 36°F/22°F....0.43"....10%..1.8"...(3")
December 4th - 22°F/18°F....0.03"....10%..0.6"...(4")
December 5th - 21°F/14°F....0.02"....0%...0.3"...(4")
December 6th - 28°F/9°F.....0.00"....95%..0.0"...(3")
December 7th - 25°F/9°F.....0.06"....10%..0.9"...(4")
December 8th - 36°F/24°F....0.00"....25%..0.0"...(3")
December 9th - 30°F/23°F....0.24"....0%...0.0"...(3")
December 10th - 34°F/27°F....0.11"....0%..0.0"...(3")
December 11th - 32°F/19°F....0.17"....35%..0.0"...(2")
December 12th - 41°F/27°F....0.14"....50%..Trace..(2")
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