Thomas is an avid weather enthusiast, landscaper and organic gardener. This blog is dedicated to Northeast and tropical weather forecasting. Enjoy!
By: sullivanweather , 9:53 AM GMT on November 14, 2007
Current Surface Analysis
A strong cold front will approach the Northeast on Wednesday in association with a sharpening upper trough. This trough will take on a negative tilt as it reaches the coast on Thursday bringing a solid shield of moderate rain to the area. On the backside of this area of rainfall a changeover to snow is possible across inland sections of the Northeast, especially across higher elevations. Lake effect snows will develop in the systems' wake during the day on Thursday, lasting into Friday. As this system wraps up and heads into the Canadian Maritimes on Friday moderate snow could develop over northern Maine on the backside of this low. Ridge of high pressure slides south of the area over the weekend as a weak clipper drops into the Northeast bringing spotty light rain and snow showers. Early next week models diverge in their soultions and lose consistancy as some point to a possible East Coast snowstorm while others leave the Northeast high and dry.
One more mild day could be expected on Wednesday as clouds increase from the west and temperatures average around 5-10 degrees above normal. Light showers could develop across central and western New York and Pennsylvania during the afternoon as moisture across the region increases ahead of approaching trough. Highs will reach the mid to upper 40's across northern New York and New England. South of here highs will easily climb into the 50's across the rest of the interior and coastal New England north of the Boston area. Across the coastal plain from Boston south highs should rise to the low to mid 60's under increasing southerly flow.
Cold front moves into western sections tonight as a wave of low pressure develops along the front after midnight on the lee side of the Appalachians. A steady area of rainfall will develop in response to this wave of low pressure as it heads northeastward along the frontal boundary and overspread much of the Northeast by daybreak. Higher elevations of western Pennsylvania could see a changeover to wet snow before precipitation comes to an end. Precipitation amounts should range from a quarter to three quarters of an inch. Lows Wednesday night will drop into the low 50's along coastal areas from southern New England south. Inland lows falls into the 40's except for extreme northern New England and western sections where front clears where 30's will be common.
Low heads offshore during the afternoon on Thursday and strengthens rapidly. This will shift the axis of heaviest rain into New England where a half to one inch of rainfall could be expected. On the backside of this low across New Jersey, eastern Pennsylvania and eastern New York State precipitation from the trough will come to an end by afternoon with higher elevations above 1800' perhaps seeing a changeover to snow showers before tapering. Downwind of Lakes Erie and Ontario snow showers will develop in repsonse to the colder airmass being ushered in from the northwest. Accumulations during the daylight hours are unlikely, however, due to warm ground and marginal boundary layer temperatures. Highs will reach the lower 50's along coastal southern New England south along the coastal plain. Inland, highs will hold in the 40's and should be reached by noon before falling during the afternoon hours. Across higher elevations from northern New York into northern New England 30's will be common.
Strong low pressure heads into the Gulf of Maine Thursday night and eventually into Nova Scotia. Rain will taper from southwest to northeast across northern New England during the nighttime hours. A changeover to snow is possible away from the immediate coast with little to no accumulation. Lake effect snows kick into gear as well on a northwest flow. However short fetch and marginal temps will keep accumulations on the light side. Lows will fall into the 20's inland with 30's along coastal areas and immediately downwind of the Lakes. A brisk wind will blow out of the northwest as developing system offshore begins to intensify.
A chilly, brisk day is in store Friday for much of the Northeast with snow possible for Maine as storm bombs out and heads into the Canadaian Maritimes. Snow should rapidly develop across the State of Maine on Friday on the backside of a deepening low pressure. Except for extreme Downeast Maine where rain should be the dominate precipitation type a light to moderate snowfall is expected. Elsewhere across the Northeast a brisk northwest wind will usher in a chilly airmass under partly cloudy skies. Areas downwind of the lakes should be in and out of snow showers as the lake effect coninues. High's will reach the 40's along the coastal plain from central New England south with perhaps a 50°F reading or two across extreme southern New Jersey. Inland areas and along coastal Maine highs will remain in the 30's.
Steady snow will taper to snow showers across upslope areas of northern New England Friday night and storm system pulls into Canada. Snow showers will continue southeast of the lakes, but will lift northwards and diminish in intensity as flow turns anti-cyclonic and inversion lowers. Across the southern half of the Northeast away from the lakes skies will clear and winds will become light. Lows here will drop into the 30's along the coast with 20's inland. Cloud cover will stick around the northern half of the Northeast as they will still be under the influence of the low lifting into Canada. Lows here will also drop into the 20's except for along the immediate coast where temperatures will fall into the low 30's.
Friday's storm develops into a deep, closed low over Quebec this weekend before lifting north into Baffin Bay. A weak moisture straved short wave rounds the base of this trough to provide the Northeast with a chance for snow showers across inland locations. Along the coast moisture won't survive the trip over the mountains, but a few flurries or sprinkles are possible. A reenforcing shot of cold air follows this short wave which could reactivate the lakes Saturday night. However, the flow quickly goes anti-cyclonic as a cold Canadian dome of high pressure builds into the region. Temperatures this weekend will average 5-10 degrees below normal as the coldest air this autumn infiltrates into the Northeast.
A narrow surface ridge remains over the Northeast on Monday with fair conditions and temperatures near normal. Heights build on Tuesday with continued fair conditions and temperatures rising above normal levels. Another frontal boundary approaches the Northeast by Wednesday with temperatures remaining above normal.
Radar: Northeast Region
Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.
Great Lakes SST's as of 11/02/2007.
Temperature of lake across the street as of 11/11 at 7:30am: 33°F. This was the first morning patchy grease ice was observed.
November Daily Weather Statistics
November 1st - 53°F/38°F....0.00"....40%
November 2nd - 52°F/30°F....0.00"....90%
November 3rd - 51°F/35°F....0.00"....30%
November 4th - 48°F/36°F....0.00"....15%
November 5th - 52°F/28°F....0.23"....60%
November 6th - 45°F/36°F....0.26"....40% Trace
November 7th - 37°F/27°F....Trace....40% Trace
November 8th - 37°F/19°F....0.00"....60%
November 9th - 38°F/27°F....0.21"....0% 1.5"
November 10th - 37°F/26°F....0.26"....20% 3.1"
November 11th - 42°F/20°F....0.00"....95%
November 12th - 39°F/24°F....0.12"....0%
November 13th - 54°F/29°F....0.31"....80%
November 14th - 48°F/27°F....0.39"....5%
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