Storm to bring rain/snow to Northeast

By: sullivanweather , 9:53 AM GMT on November 14, 2007

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Current Surface Analysis

Current Surface Analysis

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Regional Forecast

A strong cold front will approach the Northeast on Wednesday in association with a sharpening upper trough. This trough will take on a negative tilt as it reaches the coast on Thursday bringing a solid shield of moderate rain to the area. On the backside of this area of rainfall a changeover to snow is possible across inland sections of the Northeast, especially across higher elevations. Lake effect snows will develop in the systems' wake during the day on Thursday, lasting into Friday. As this system wraps up and heads into the Canadian Maritimes on Friday moderate snow could develop over northern Maine on the backside of this low. Ridge of high pressure slides south of the area over the weekend as a weak clipper drops into the Northeast bringing spotty light rain and snow showers. Early next week models diverge in their soultions and lose consistancy as some point to a possible East Coast snowstorm while others leave the Northeast high and dry.

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One more mild day could be expected on Wednesday as clouds increase from the west and temperatures average around 5-10 degrees above normal. Light showers could develop across central and western New York and Pennsylvania during the afternoon as moisture across the region increases ahead of approaching trough. Highs will reach the mid to upper 40's across northern New York and New England. South of here highs will easily climb into the 50's across the rest of the interior and coastal New England north of the Boston area. Across the coastal plain from Boston south highs should rise to the low to mid 60's under increasing southerly flow.

Cold front moves into western sections tonight as a wave of low pressure develops along the front after midnight on the lee side of the Appalachians. A steady area of rainfall will develop in response to this wave of low pressure as it heads northeastward along the frontal boundary and overspread much of the Northeast by daybreak. Higher elevations of western Pennsylvania could see a changeover to wet snow before precipitation comes to an end. Precipitation amounts should range from a quarter to three quarters of an inch. Lows Wednesday night will drop into the low 50's along coastal areas from southern New England south. Inland lows falls into the 40's except for extreme northern New England and western sections where front clears where 30's will be common.

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Low heads offshore during the afternoon on Thursday and strengthens rapidly. This will shift the axis of heaviest rain into New England where a half to one inch of rainfall could be expected. On the backside of this low across New Jersey, eastern Pennsylvania and eastern New York State precipitation from the trough will come to an end by afternoon with higher elevations above 1800' perhaps seeing a changeover to snow showers before tapering. Downwind of Lakes Erie and Ontario snow showers will develop in repsonse to the colder airmass being ushered in from the northwest. Accumulations during the daylight hours are unlikely, however, due to warm ground and marginal boundary layer temperatures. Highs will reach the lower 50's along coastal southern New England south along the coastal plain. Inland, highs will hold in the 40's and should be reached by noon before falling during the afternoon hours. Across higher elevations from northern New York into northern New England 30's will be common.

Strong low pressure heads into the Gulf of Maine Thursday night and eventually into Nova Scotia. Rain will taper from southwest to northeast across northern New England during the nighttime hours. A changeover to snow is possible away from the immediate coast with little to no accumulation. Lake effect snows kick into gear as well on a northwest flow. However short fetch and marginal temps will keep accumulations on the light side. Lows will fall into the 20's inland with 30's along coastal areas and immediately downwind of the Lakes. A brisk wind will blow out of the northwest as developing system offshore begins to intensify.

A chilly, brisk day is in store Friday for much of the Northeast with snow possible for Maine as storm bombs out and heads into the Canadaian Maritimes. Snow should rapidly develop across the State of Maine on Friday on the backside of a deepening low pressure. Except for extreme Downeast Maine where rain should be the dominate precipitation type a light to moderate snowfall is expected. Elsewhere across the Northeast a brisk northwest wind will usher in a chilly airmass under partly cloudy skies. Areas downwind of the lakes should be in and out of snow showers as the lake effect coninues. High's will reach the 40's along the coastal plain from central New England south with perhaps a 50°F reading or two across extreme southern New Jersey. Inland areas and along coastal Maine highs will remain in the 30's.

Steady snow will taper to snow showers across upslope areas of northern New England Friday night and storm system pulls into Canada. Snow showers will continue southeast of the lakes, but will lift northwards and diminish in intensity as flow turns anti-cyclonic and inversion lowers. Across the southern half of the Northeast away from the lakes skies will clear and winds will become light. Lows here will drop into the 30's along the coast with 20's inland. Cloud cover will stick around the northern half of the Northeast as they will still be under the influence of the low lifting into Canada. Lows here will also drop into the 20's except for along the immediate coast where temperatures will fall into the low 30's.

Precipitation Amounts Nov 14-17th

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Snowfall through Saturday

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Friday's storm develops into a deep, closed low over Quebec this weekend before lifting north into Baffin Bay. A weak moisture straved short wave rounds the base of this trough to provide the Northeast with a chance for snow showers across inland locations. Along the coast moisture won't survive the trip over the mountains, but a few flurries or sprinkles are possible. A reenforcing shot of cold air follows this short wave which could reactivate the lakes Saturday night. However, the flow quickly goes anti-cyclonic as a cold Canadian dome of high pressure builds into the region. Temperatures this weekend will average 5-10 degrees below normal as the coldest air this autumn infiltrates into the Northeast.

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A narrow surface ridge remains over the Northeast on Monday with fair conditions and temperatures near normal. Heights build on Tuesday with continued fair conditions and temperatures rising above normal levels. Another frontal boundary approaches the Northeast by Wednesday with temperatures remaining above normal.
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Radar: Northeast Region

NE radar

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Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.

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Great Lakes SST's 9-29

Great Lakes SST's as of 11/02/2007.

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Temperature of lake across the street as of 11/11 at 7:30am: 33°F. This was the first morning patchy grease ice was observed.

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November Daily Weather Statistics

Date___________Hi/Lo____Precip___Sun___Snow

November 1st - 53°F/38°F....0.00"....40%
November 2nd - 52°F/30°F....0.00"....90%
November 3rd - 51°F/35°F....0.00"....30%
November 4th - 48°F/36°F....0.00"....15%
November 5th - 52°F/28°F....0.23"....60%
November 6th - 45°F/36°F....0.26"....40% Trace
November 7th - 37°F/27°F....Trace....40% Trace
November 8th - 37°F/19°F....0.00"....60%
November 9th - 38°F/27°F....0.21"....0% 1.5"
November 10th - 37°F/26°F....0.26"....20% 3.1"
November 11th - 42°F/20°F....0.00"....95%
November 12th - 39°F/24°F....0.12"....0%
November 13th - 54°F/29°F....0.31"....80%
November 14th - 48°F/27°F....0.39"....5%



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42. Ivansrvivr
12:51 PM GMT on November 15, 2007
Morning S.W. we her in Fl could use some rain like what youre getting. I'd personally love a good 6 inch snow. Nothing too heavy, Just a good solid snowfall. 2 concussions left me partially dyslexic. can't handle complex math anymore. Meds help, moreso w/ memory problems complex math just becomes blur. I'm improving w/ practice though and would love to get a degree in meteorology.
41. Fshhead
7:01 AM GMT on November 15, 2007
Sometimes my blog gets soooo frustrating.
I haaad to pick the topic that pushes everybodys buttons.... lol
Member Since: November 19, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 9960
40. edhanna
12:53 AM GMT on November 15, 2007
Great job on the blog sull! Glad to hear it. Hope you get to talk more about the strom for next week, I've been quite interested in it. Keep up the great blogs!
Ed
39. NumberWise
12:35 AM GMT on November 15, 2007
Well, congratulations! I think it's quite an honor to have a featured blog, and you deserve it. From a personal standpoint, though, I feel a bit divided. It's reassuring to know that you'll stay with providing these great forecasts, but I'll worry that your blog will become so popular that it will be littered with glitter graphics, trolls, and all the garbage that goes on in some of the other blogs. So don't make it too good....
Member Since: October 22, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1775
38. sullivanweather
1:23 PM GMT on November 14, 2007
Spetrm,

Yeah. On the job experience is far more valuable, in my opinion.

I've been self studying the weather now for about 12 years....nothing especially extensively. But I can whip up one hell of a forecast after the next after the next.

Again, once you're used to pattern reconigtion and following the models long enough to be able to just look at one and be like yeah, im tossing this, it's an outlyer. Or look at a model run and say, wow this one is right on...

Reading papers is always interesting too. LOTS of good works out there.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
37. sullivanweather
1:18 PM GMT on November 14, 2007
Ivansurvivor,

That seems like quite an intimidating cat...

I'd love to get a special breed, but I'ma wait for these ones to start dropping...

Man, I don't even know if I want animals after this...dealing with these 5 are enough to last a lifetime
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
36. Spetrm
1:17 PM GMT on November 14, 2007
I took the military option. I have the equivalant of a bachelors in met now but its not a bachelors so ya... Plus plenty of on the job expierience. Thats the important part I think.

Going to college now though. To much math! I hate math.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 410 Comments: 9858
35. sullivanweather
1:16 PM GMT on November 14, 2007
Good morning WSB!

i was thinking about adding your blog in my recommended links as well. Especially since I don't have someone from the Upper Great Lakes in there.

I guess now I will do so
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
34. sullivanweather
1:14 PM GMT on November 14, 2007
Spetrm,

That's awesome!

I'm going to Met school starting next year. I hope I can get to grad school for a masters, eventually...

I would have loved to start sooner, but we decided that it would be better if my g/f would start school 1st as her school was local and we would have to move to go to my school. She just graduated this spring as a grad nurse and passed her board exams in Aug, so now she's an R.N.

That really helps us out when I go to school, it won't nearly be the same struggle as it has been while she was goingto school
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
33. sullivanweather
1:09 PM GMT on November 14, 2007
Ivansurvivor,

Yeah, those you mentioned both have very good blogs.

I've kept a weather journal for some time whenever I could, but this blogs make it a whole lot easier. I started commenting here back in March and began making my own blogs starting in June. It does take awhile to get a format down but once you have a few trials and errors it'll come to you. So keep with it!
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
32. Ivansrvivr
1:08 PM GMT on November 14, 2007
Talk about huge, my first non domestic, an Amur leopard weighed 30 lbs and had no fat at all. That cat was huge and mean except to me. It would growl in it's sleep. I someone made it mad, it growl until it snorted.
31. Winterstormsblog
1:05 PM GMT on November 14, 2007
sullivan,

I added your blog to my recomended links, not like it will matter since your have a featured blog, lol. : )
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 86 Comments: 5650
30. Spetrm
1:04 PM GMT on November 14, 2007
Well ya, he has his masters in met and worked for the local tv station for awhile. He knows what hes talking about. A cool guy too. Will answer just about anyones questions.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 410 Comments: 9858
29. Ivansrvivr
1:03 PM GMT on November 14, 2007
Congrats on being a feature blogger. After my being banned incedent, I found the administration takes notice of those that contribute. They e-mailed me and e discussed the banning situation and they welcomed my input and opinions on how to improve those matters. While I dont really do my own blog yet, I do try to contribute to whatever topic is occurring and don't treat those new to weather any differently than Storm W or MichaelSTL. I found that they do take notice of those who contribute and conduct themselves well. Evntually, I'll be doing my own weather blog too but not yet. This is actually the first blog I've ever had enough interest join. I know more about the weather than I do about blogging. I was lurking for 8-9 months before i jumped in.
28. sullivanweather
1:01 PM GMT on November 14, 2007
Spetrm,

LMAO! Yeah, I know what you mean. I try to bite my tongue but I usually end up saying something like..."When was the last time a hurricane moved straight through a 590mb+ mid level high?" in response to those that thought Dean and Felix was heading straight for the Gulf Coast.

I just try to throw out some logic....

I've read weatherguy03's blog before. He seems to know what he's talking about. I'm sure if he's going to be running his own site soon he does...lol
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
27. sullivanweather
12:57 PM GMT on November 14, 2007
Hey BangorWalker!

Yeah, you're going to be close. I'm guessing that you'll get a good amount of rainfall, perhaps an inch from Thursday afternoon-Friday morning. I'm thinking that you'll get into some wrap around after getting dry slotted which could bring an inch or so.

These negatively tilting systems are always a challenge. I still don't think I got this one down yet. Confidence level is probably somewheres in the middle, but certainly not a high confidence forecast.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
26. Spetrm
12:54 PM GMT on November 14, 2007
Well everytime I go to masters blog someone starts something with me. Like if I say something they dont like. Most response is thats wrong your stupid in blunt.

And Bob is Weatherguy03.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 410 Comments: 9858
25. sullivanweather
12:53 PM GMT on November 14, 2007
Spetrm,

Who's Bob? lol


I'm pretty even keeled, so I usually don't find myself in spats with the bloggers...lol

I usually just laugh at the others when they get into the fights and all. I probably have said one or two things that might be considered offensive, but I tend to stay away from those conversations.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
24. sullivanweather
12:50 PM GMT on November 14, 2007
Ivansurvivor,

Cats are amazing creatures...

I have 2 cerebellar hypopalsia cats. We actually diagnosed them ourselves (my g/f and I). Our vet told us that they had panlukopemia (sp), which if that was the case they'd be dead by now.

The one cat in the video I sent over is pretty messed up, obviously. She weighs about 3 lbs and is the size of a normal 4 month old cat. The other is an absolute demon. If he wasn't a CH kitty he'd be even more of a terror.

I also have 3 others. One we got at one of those barns that's completely full of cats at a place we go racing R/C cars on sundays. The other is a half blind orange cat that's huge....weighs like 15lbs.

Our last is my kitty I've had since I've been 13. He's 12 years old right now but still acts like he's 6. SMART as hell. Very VERY clever cat. You can tell he's always thinking.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
23. BANGORWALKER
12:46 PM GMT on November 14, 2007
Good Morning Sullivan--

My local MET says mostly rain for me Friday, but he's keeping an eye on it. I might be right on the rain/snow line which could make for an icy mess...

Meanwhile I get to enjoy the "warmest" day today since the first...
Member Since: January 17, 2006 Posts: 18 Comments: 3382
22. Spetrm
12:45 PM GMT on November 14, 2007
OOO, thats why I probaly never could be a feature, I tell people when there being stupid that there being stupid. I'm a bad boy. Plus I'm leaving this blog once bob gets his page up and running so ya.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 410 Comments: 9858
21. sullivanweather
12:44 PM GMT on November 14, 2007
Spetrm,

Simply asked. We exchanged a few WUmails where I gave him some information about myself and my commitment to the blog etc.

I really don't know what the internal process was at Wunderground that followed after my request, however. I'm sure they read over previous blogs and made sure I wasn't confrontational to other bloggers and whatnot.

But he said that he'll give me a try and see how it goes from there.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
20. Ivansrvivr
12:43 PM GMT on November 14, 2007
I have 2. Mo is more like 3 cats and a dog rolled up into 6 lb package. the other one (juice) is 14 years old and has brain damage. She was owned by these to STUPID stripper girls(puting it very milldly). They had no clue how to take care of a kitten. Locked it in their freezer, itgot stuck under their mattress, then it chewed into 220 electric line and blew it's brains out. I took it from them at that point, nursed it back to health and changed it's name to Juice. Noboby though it would survive. To my surprise Juice and Mo play together. Juice hadn't played in years.
Juice has lived far longer than I expected. She was so traumatized, thst she stopped growing premturely and is scared of everyting. Much to my surprise she and Mo are pals now.
19. Spetrm
12:38 PM GMT on November 14, 2007
I'm confused, I wasent acutally talking about the post itself. Nevermind,

I want to know how you got put up for featured blogger? Thats cool.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 410 Comments: 9858
18. sullivanweather
12:34 PM GMT on November 14, 2007
Ivansurvivor,

I'll be sure to take your advice!

My g/f's mother has a landscaping biz and I mainly work with her. We only have a few clients which really don't require power tools, just a lot of elbow grease...lol

I'm real sorry to hear about your injury. Ladder accidents aren't very good and I always have that thought in the back of my head whenever I have to go up on a roof to clean a gutter or roof, etc.

Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
17. sullivanweather
12:28 PM GMT on November 14, 2007
Spetrm, I really don't mind what others post. I encourage the folks that come by and leave comments to post whatever their heart pleases. I'm talking about the blog entry itself, my part of it.

Dr.Masters is putting me up as a featured blogger within the next couple of days and I want to make sure that the blog won't be a hassle for some folks.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
16. Ivansrvivr
12:27 PM GMT on November 14, 2007
S.W. if you don't want injuries, stay off ladders w/ chainsaws. I did alot of tree rimming and cutting after Ivan/Dennis. I have long arms, and could always reach one more branch. I reached one branch too many. So me, the ladder, and chainsaw all landed in the concrete. That ended my landscaping days (full time). I too enjoyed the exercise. I reallly miss landscaping. Thats why against dr.s orders I still take on a project here or there.
15. Spetrm
12:23 PM GMT on November 14, 2007
Well I didnt mean to put the pics on here ya know. I'm just saying I print it out and draw it up with like colered pencils. It clears my head. And I get to coler!!! LOL
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 410 Comments: 9858
14. sullivanweather
12:23 PM GMT on November 14, 2007
Ivansurvivor,

Oh the joys of having cats....lol


My little demons (I have 5) are already begging for their morning food by incessantly caterwaling. And it'll only be a matter of time before the bird wakes up and sings his morning song.....ugh lol
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
13. sullivanweather
12:21 PM GMT on November 14, 2007
Spetrm,

I see what you mean. We'll see. I'll definitely think about it. I have to try and keep balance here now however, I don't want the blog to have too many pics inside otherwise it'll take a long time to load for dail-up users.

Thanks for the idea, though. Maybe I can find an HPC map or something to that effect. I know they have surface plots somwwhere on that site.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
12. Ivansrvivr
12:19 PM GMT on November 14, 2007
If I had a camcorder, I'd film Mo chasing her tail. She does it a bit different than other cats. She jumps and shases her tail vertically in the air. Basically doing double and triple sommersaults. It's histerical to watch. Mokee has tail issues all the time. Her tail is completely for balance and often doesn't eve know it's there. When she hides, it always sticks out.
11. sullivanweather
12:18 PM GMT on November 14, 2007
Ivansurvivor,

That's awesome bro!

Yeah, I really like to landscape! Been doing it for about 10 years now as a job, although I landscaped my parents house when I was younger since I've been about 10 years of age. Thankfully I haven't gotten anh injuries yet as I love the workouts doing that line of work provides. Keeps me healthy.

Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
10. Spetrm
12:12 PM GMT on November 14, 2007
I mean this, just as an example. I don't really like it. Plymouth weather has better ones.

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 410 Comments: 9858
9. Ivansrvivr
12:11 PM GMT on November 14, 2007
I diddn't know youre a landscaper. Landscaping has been a hobby which became an occupation for 15 yrs. Injury sidelined me and I'm not supposed to do any.(but I still take a project occasionally just for fun). Part of what I enjoyed about was being able to observe the weather while I worked. I also did alot of landscape design which let's my artistic side out.
8. sullivanweather
12:10 PM GMT on November 14, 2007
Spetrm,


A map with plots?

As in marking cities and towns?
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
7. sullivanweather
12:08 PM GMT on November 14, 2007
Good morning, Ivansurvivor!

Yes I did and I did check out those sites. I have seen the potty trained kittys site before and the other pics and videos were great!

Those youtube videos I posted in your blog is of one of my cerebellar hypoplasia kitties. If you click on our user profile there's one more video. The originial "Drunk Kitty" video that started it all. LOL We have an internet STAR!

Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
6. Spetrm
12:05 PM GMT on November 14, 2007
No worrys, I didnt go anywhere, I was just filling my empty brain with weather for the day. I try to drain it out every night and start new every day that way I keep my information fresh. A tip you should try out is print out a map with plots on it and draw out a map yourself. I do that for suface analysis everyday and for upper air every other. It really makes things more clear.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 410 Comments: 9858
5. Ivansrvivr
12:02 PM GMT on November 14, 2007
S.W., did you get that e-mail I sent last night?
4. sullivanweather
11:59 AM GMT on November 14, 2007
Hey spetrm, I thought you left me but I guess you're at work...lol

That is good that we do agree on the forecast. I'll check out your blog ASAP. I had just gottem Wumail from Bonedog earlier and went to check their blog and leave a comment or two.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
3. Spetrm
11:56 AM GMT on November 14, 2007
Good map, I can't make one here today cuase I'm at work. But what I described in my update is exactly that. Its good when we agree on the same forecast.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 410 Comments: 9858
2. sullivanweather
11:16 AM GMT on November 14, 2007
Hey bro!

whats going on?

I was in the process of making a snowfall map for the upcoming storm/lake effect event.

I'm here now...lol
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
1. Spetrm
10:54 AM GMT on November 14, 2007
Its still to early go back to sleep!! LOL

Nothing has changed in the last 6 hours. Still cold and fronts.....
Ok I'm still trying to wake up, give me 20 minutes or so after my brain gets cranking and I'll be able to talk weather with ya.

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 410 Comments: 9858

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Thomas is an avid weather enthusiast, landscaper and organic gardener. This blog is dedicated to Northeast and tropical weather forecasting. Enjoy!

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