1st Widespread Snowfall/Pics

By: sullivanweather , 8:32 AM GMT on November 09, 2007

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Clipper to bring seasons' frist snowfall to portions of the Northeast.

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Pennsylvania, New Jersey, southern New York and extreme southern New England

A pair of disturbances will combine to bring the first synoptic snowfall this season across southern New York State, Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey. A system currently over the Ohio Valley will transfer its energy to a developing low offshore. This system does not have a lot of moisture to work with but does have enough to produce a period of light precipitation during the day on Friday. Lower elevations should mainly see light rainfall but as one heads higher into the hills and mountains precipitation should mix with, and change to snow. Even some of the lower elevations could see a period of sleet at the onset of the precipitation.

Clouds will have spread over most areas that will receive precipitation today by dawn. This will help to keep temperatures down and when combined with dewpoints in the 20's across most of the areas where precipitation type will be an issue, there could be a tendacy towards frozen precipitation. As it looks now, snow levels will range from 1800' across the southern two thirds of Pennsylvania to around 1000' across southern New York. This precipitation will not amount to much during the day on Friday, mainly under a tenth of an inch, with little to no accumulations of snow.

Friday ptype

A secondary disturbance, currently north of Minnesota, will quickly dive into western Pennsylvania this evening. This short wave combined with an inverted trough at the surface should provide enough lift and convergence to produce another period of precipitation overnight Friday into Saturday morning. Snow levels will lower and move towards the coast as the night progresses with areas down to the I-95 corridor seeing a mixture by daybreak Saturday. Across the interior light accumulations of snow is likely during the overnight period. Precipitation should taper during the morning hours on Saturday except for eastern Long Island and southeastern New England who could get into some wrap around from strengthening offshore low. There could even be an ocean-effect rain or snow shower over Cape Cod as system pulls away.

UPDATED 9PM
Precip type - Friday night

UPDATED 9PM
Snowfall Amounts

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Northern New York and the rest of New England.

High pressure over Quebec will keep northern New York and central and northern New England dry on Friday. Skies will be mostly clear across northern Maine with increasing clouds towards the south and west. Temperatures will average about 5 degrees below normal on Friday.

Much of the same is expected Friday night with clipper system staying to the south of the area and high pressure to the north remaining in control.

Benign weather continues into Saturday with temperatures remaining below normal. There will be some gusty winds along the New England coast as pressure gradient tightens between developing offshore low and high pressure to the north.

Skies clear and winds calm by Saturday night making for ideal radiational cooling conditions. Temperatures will remain about 5-10 degrees below normal.

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Sunday through Midweek

High pressure will remain anchored over the region on Sunday with mostly clear skies and light winds. High clouds will approach from the west as a weakening trough moves towards the area. Temperatures will remain about 5-10 degrees below seasonal norms.

High pressure begins to move southward Sunday night bringing a milder westerly flow of air into the region. Temperatures Sunday night will average about 5-10 degrees warmer than Saturday night under partly cloudy skies.

Southwesterly flow kicks into gear Monday with temperatures returning to normal levels for mid-November. Skies will remain partly cloudy across New England with increasing levels of cloudiness as one heads southwestward towards Pennsylvania. There could even be some very light rain or drizzle by afternoon in western Pennsylvania. Trough approaches from the west by Monday night which could provide some light rain showers across the western half of the Northeast. With cloud cover and a milder southwesterly flow of air temperatures should climb back above normal.

Trough continues to pull eastward on Tuesday providing most of the Northeast with a chance for rain showers. Continued cloud cover will prevent temperatures from climbing much from overnight lows with high close to average. Since this system will be of Pacific origin the air behind this trough will not cool much. Weak ridge will provide some clearing Tuesday night. Overnight lows will remain close to or slightly above average.

The ridge quickly moves offshore Wednesday morning, giving way to another trough. Southwest flow out ahead of this trough will bring temperatures back above seasonal norms as storm track remains in Canada. Clouds will filter back into the region with light showers breaking out by evening across western sections.

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Radar: Northeast Region

NE radar

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Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.

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Great Lakes SST's 9-29

Great Lakes SST's as of 11/02/2007.

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Temperature of lake across the street as of 11/9 7:30am: 37°F

___________________________________________________________



November Daily Weather Statistics

Date___________Hi/Lo____Precip___Sun___Snow

November 1st - 53°F/38°F....0.00"....40%
November 2nd - 52°F/30°F....0.00"....90%
November 3rd - 51°F/35°F....0.00"....30%
November 4th - 48°F/36°F....0.00"....15%
November 5th - 52°F/28°F....0.23"....60%
November 6th - 45°F/36°F....0.26"....40% Trace
November 7th - 37°F/27°F....Trace....40% Trace
November 8th - 37°F/19°F....0.00"....60%
November 9th - 38°F/27°F....0.21"....0% 1.5"
November 10th - 37°F/26°F....0.26"....20% 3.1"



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1st Snowfall (3am) (sullivanweather)
30 second exposure of seasons' first snowfall here in Bethel.
1st Snowfall (3am)
1st Snowfall - Field across street (sullivanweather)
1st Snowfall - Field across street
1st Snowfall - Field across street
1st Snowfall - Front Yard (sullivanweather)
1st Snowfall - Front Yard
1st Snowfall - Front Yard
1st Snowfall - Lakeside (sullivanweather)
1st Snowfall - Lakeside
1st Snowfall - Lakeside
1st Snowfall - Shrubs in full leaf (sullivanweather)
1st Snowfall - Shrubs in full leaf
1st Snowfall - Shrubs in full leaf
1st Snowfall - Down the street (sullivanweather)
1st Snowfall - Down the street
1st Snowfall - Down the street
1st Snowfall - Pine and Maple (sullivanweather)
1st Snowfall - Down the street
1st Snowfall - Pine and Maple
1st Snowfall - Hemlock amongst Hardwoods (sullivanweather)
1st Snowfall - Hemlock amongst Hardwoods
1st Snowfall - Hemlock amongst Hardwoods
1st Snowfall - Fenced field with treeline (sullivanweather)
1st Snowfall - Fenced field with treeline
1st Snowfall - Fenced field with treeline
1st Snowfall - Snowy apples (sullivanweather)
1st Snowfall - Snowy Apples
1st Snowfall - Snowy apples
1st Snowfall - Old farm Equipment (sullivanweather)
1st Snowfall - Old farm Equipment
1st Snowfall - Old farm Equipment
1st Snowfall - Sugar Maple Grove (sullivanweather)
1st Snowfall - sugar Maple Grove
1st Snowfall - Sugar Maple Grove
1st Snowfall - Blueberry Bush (sullivanweather)
1st Snowfall - Blueberry Bush
1st Snowfall - Blueberry Bush
1st Snowfall - Looking down on the Farm (sullivanweather)
1st Snowfall - Looking down on the Farm
1st Snowfall - Looking down on the Farm
1st Snowfall - Measurement (sullivanweather)
1st Snowfall - Measurement taken on a tree stump in the middle of the field.
1st Snowfall - Measurement

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39. ShenValleyFlyFish
10:24 AM GMT on November 11, 2007
Wonderful set of pictures. Thanks for sharing.
Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
38. sullivanweather
5:54 AM GMT on November 11, 2007
Hey everyone!

Thank you for the gracious comments on both the blog and the pictures. It makes all the extra effort feel really appreciated.

We finished the storm with 4.6" of snow. In open fields and grassy areas most of the snow melted to due a high of 37, warm ground and breaks of sun. Fields that slope down toward the north or east there's about an inch or two of snow cover remaining as well as any wooded areas.

The leftover snow is helping out with radiational cooling tonight and once the winds calm we should get down to around 20 degrees. I'll be looking for grease ice on the lake in the morning along the shores as it might just be cold enough for some ice development in shallow areas.

Once again, I thank everyone for stopping by and leaving comments.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
37. HeavySnow
5:50 AM GMT on November 11, 2007
Snow jealousy.
Awesome.
I want mine.
Member Since: July 7, 2004 Posts: 18 Comments: 2990
36. weatherguy03
1:07 AM GMT on November 11, 2007
Great pics!! Man you live in a beautiful area! I miss snow when I see pictures like that. And great analysis on the inverted trough!!
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29708
35. charlesimages
1:02 AM GMT on November 11, 2007
Great photos!!

I especially liked the fence/field and down the road shots best. Makes me anxious to get our first snow here in Michigan actually.

Thanks for sharing =)
Member Since: May 25, 2006 Posts: 347 Comments: 29278
34. NumberWise
10:08 PM GMT on November 10, 2007
Yes, lovely photos, and they really capture the magic of that first snowfall. I like the snowy apples.
Member Since: October 22, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1737
33. Fshhead
9:02 PM GMT on November 10, 2007
WOW Sully!!! Awesome pics there my friend THANX for sharing!!!!! I gotta agree with Mark on those two & I like the front shot of the house too.
Member Since: November 19, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 9960
32. DenverMark
8:32 PM GMT on November 10, 2007
Great pics!! My favorites are "Looking Down on the Farm" and "Down the Street"...perfect 10s in my book!
Member Since: February 11, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 6988
31. Spetrm
7:44 PM GMT on November 10, 2007
Good pics. I like the country setting. Its nice.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 410 Comments: 9857
29. Winterstormsblog
7:29 PM GMT on November 10, 2007
Great pics Sully!
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 86 Comments: 5650
28. NumberWise
2:10 PM GMT on November 10, 2007
Thanks so much! Your explanations always make sense to me.
Member Since: October 22, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1737
27. sullivanweather
1:39 PM GMT on November 10, 2007
An inverted trough is a trough whose axis is opposite that of a normal trough.

Normally air pressure along a trough axis will increase as one heads away from the low from north to south. An inverted troughs' pressure increases along the axis as one heads from south to north. Inverted troughs will usually be found on the backside of a low pressure system.

I got asked this very same question last night and made a diagram for them, which I will now post for you here.

Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
26. sullivanweather
1:33 PM GMT on November 10, 2007
On a side note, the snowfall measurement @8am was 4.2". Could get close to 4.5" by the time it ends but we're battling the sun now.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
25. NumberWise
1:32 PM GMT on November 10, 2007
Could you explain a little about an inverted trough?
Member Since: October 22, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1737
24. sullivanweather
1:31 PM GMT on November 10, 2007
Good morning DenverMark!

That band that extends from Binghamton to Sussex is dropping some pretty fluffy snows which is helping to beef up the totals. It has now slid just south and west of my area but there appears to be another band redeveloping just to my northeast that should follow it southwestward. So there's still a chance that I could get into one more burst before flurries round out the morning.

Thanks for stopping by!
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
23. sullivanweather
1:26 PM GMT on November 10, 2007
Good morning WSB!

I've been out for the last hour taking more pics and will be adding them to the blog shortly.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
22. sullivanweather
1:25 PM GMT on November 10, 2007
Top O' the morning to you, NumberWise!

I'm glad my forecast worked out for you!

Down by my area I could've actually beefed up the snow accumulations. I played it conservative with a 2"+ area as my highest contour as I wasn't expecting over 3". At the time I thought I may have been overstepping it some, but in the back of my mind I had been thinking about how inverted troughs are typically not handled well by models in terms of them being underforecast with snow amounts.

This one will go into the memory bank to be used the next time an inverted trough threatens, that's for sure.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
21. DenverMark
1:03 PM GMT on November 10, 2007
Good morning Sullivan!
Looks like some pretty decent snow is falling from around Binghamton over to High Point, NJ. 4" for you already...enjoy!!
Member Since: February 11, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 6988
20. Winterstormsblog
12:57 PM GMT on November 10, 2007
Sully, great blog and congrats on the forecast. You had yours out way before I changed my snow area further north. I will be coming to you for forecast advice now, lol.

Nice pic! looks great outside! enjoy!

-WSB
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 86 Comments: 5650
19. NumberWise
12:41 PM GMT on November 10, 2007
Good morning. We got just a dusting of snow. This was exactly what I had expected, for we're right on the edge of your snow line.
Member Since: October 22, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1737
18. sullivanweather
12:15 PM GMT on November 10, 2007
As of 7am there is 3.9" of snow

Hourly obs from midnight are as follows...

Midnight - 1.5"
1am - 1.8"
2am - 2.2"
3am - 2.5"
4am - 2.8"
5am - 3.0"
6am - 3.4"
7am - 3.9"
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
17. sullivanweather
3:10 AM GMT on November 10, 2007
Hey bigtrucker!

70 degrees sounds rather pleasent. I'm doubting we'll see temperatures here that warm again until March!

I hope you're enjoying yourself out there in Iowa. I'm sure its still a shock to the system weatherwise and otherwise.

Have a great weekend!
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
16. sullivanweather
3:07 AM GMT on November 10, 2007
edhanna,

Yes, eventually...

You're under a small pocket of slightly drier air around the 850-700mb level. This pocket of drier air should gradually gain some moisture and move southeast. Precipitation should begin there within the next hour or two as a light mix of rain and snow that should transition more to snow during the overnight towards daybreak. You could wake up in the morning with a dusting on the grass.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
15. edhanna
2:58 AM GMT on November 10, 2007
Hey there sully, if you remember where i am in the Lehigh Valley just south of the poconos, it hasn't even started raining yet, what's the deal with that? Any chance of seeing the white stuff?
14. bigtrucker
2:49 AM GMT on November 10, 2007
Hi sully, looking at the models by next Friday we could be looking at some snow ...for the immidiate future a mini warm up here in NW Iowa,on Sunday, southwest winds will allow temps to flirt with 70F,most likely upper 60's. Not bad for November.
Hope you have a pleasant weekend
Member Since: January 9, 2006 Posts: 80 Comments: 6119
13. sullivanweather
1:16 AM GMT on November 10, 2007
I just went outside to check out the latest. There's about a half inch of snow, maybe a bit more, on grassy surfaces and car tops.

The paved surfaces are just wet.

Inverted trough appears to be strengthening at the time over southeastern New York and northern New Jersey. As upper disturbance moves into this region later precipitation should transition over to snow in lower elevations closer to the coast. Where snow is falling now it could come down steady for a period as upper lift should be able to draw some moisture into the snow growth zone. This should occur in the Poconos and southern Catskills where as they should be under the inverted trough as upper support swings through.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
12. sullivanweather
12:25 AM GMT on November 10, 2007
I wish you luck. You're going to need it to get snow down there.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
10. sullivanweather
12:11 AM GMT on November 10, 2007
3rd day in a row here @ 37 degrees. Temperatures quickly dropped to 31 once the snow started. It's starting to dust the ground now.


My plan tonight is to watch the Knicks' game after Scrubs and celebrate their victory by taking a nighttime walk in the snow....lol
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
8. sullivanweather
11:37 PM GMT on November 09, 2007
Simon,

Can't argue with you there. He probably spends most of the Winter in shorts. lol
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
6. sullivanweather
10:23 PM GMT on November 09, 2007
Spetrm,

Thank you for pointing that out. I must've posted the wrong links to the mouseover text.

Rather impressive moisture plume now over central Long Island extending northwestward in southeastern New York. Models seem to have a good handle on this feature and their QPF forecast of .25" or greater amounts looks reasonable. Could see some winter weather advisories hoisted tonight.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
5. sullivanweather
10:17 PM GMT on November 09, 2007
Simon,

60's?!? Brutal winter?!? lol

That's too much.

Well, if it makes you feel better it's 31 here now with a mile and a quarter visibility in light snow.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
4. Spetrm
10:11 PM GMT on November 09, 2007
Good snyobsis man! Thanks, BTW though your NYC radar is central PA. LOL
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 410 Comments: 9857
1. sullivanweather
8:22 PM GMT on November 09, 2007
Snow has begun falling here in Bethel.

Temperatures have dropped to 35 and should head down further.

The fact that is it now snowing, as opposed to raining, has given me a bit more confidence in the forecast put out early this morning.

Models ave now come into agreement showing QPF >.25" across northern New Jersey, Southeastern New York and northeastern Pennsylvania. If this holds true there should be a 2" snowfall for locations above 1200' tonight.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612

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Thomas is an avid weather enthusiast, landscaper and organic gardener. This blog is dedicated to Northeast and tropical weather forecasting. Enjoy!

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