Major nor'easter underway

By: sullivanweather , 3:49 PM GMT on February 13, 2014

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Surely the sky looked grayer than your typical stormy sky this morning. A classic February nor'easter is currently pummeling the Eastern Seaboard from Georgia to southern New England with intense snowfall rates and crippling ice accretions across the Northeast and interior sections of the South. Originating from the Gulf of Mexico, low pressure at the surface has now moved to a position approximately 40 miles east of Wallops Island, Virginia and is moving north-northeast around 30mph. Low pressure is now down to 995mb heading into the 970's by the wee hours Friday morning. Out ahead of this low exists a large shield of precipitation, associated with a surge of isentropic lift with a very intense band of snowfall embedded within thanks, in part, to 850-700mb 2-D frontogenesis which is resulting in 2-4"/hr snowfall rates. This intense band of snow extends from Long Island, back across north-central New Jersey and across the southern tier of Pennsylvania. A band of mostly light to moderate snow strung out along the spine of the Appalachians archs back to the upper level core of the system, which will become a major snow producer in its own right later tonight.

Through the rest of today the large shield of snow (rain along the immediate New Jersey coast) will continue to slowly build north, enveloping New England and reaching the Canadian border by dusk. Within this band of snow will exist the aforementioned frontogenesis band of 2-4"/hr rates. This band will push north around 25-30mph to Scranton/Newburgh/Hartford line before rapidly translating northeast to coastal Maine later this afternoon. 4-8" of snow can be expected during the 2-3 hour long passage of this band. Along the coastal plain of southern New England, the lower Hudson Valley, and down through the urban corridor of northeast New Jersey snow will begin to changeover to sleet and freezing rain after the intense frontogenesis band passes through. This will lead to very treacherous conditions with the ice/6"+ snow combo. Farther northwest of the transition zone, after the frontogenesis bands moves on, a steady light to moderate snow will continue from central Pennsylvania, through upstate New York and interior New England. Areas to the immediate northwest of the transition zone are likely to see the heaviest snowfall accumulations during the course of the day, on the order of 8-14" with locally higher amounts. Amounts will taper to the northwest of this line at roughly 1"/20mi, reaching a terminus over the Allegheny Plateau.

Low pressure in the mid/upper levels of the atmosphere rotates across the Northeast corridor tonight, leading to another round of very intense snowfall moving from south-southwest to north-northeast from southeast Pennsylvania through New Jersey, eastern New York and western New England. In response to the upper level energy swinging through, low pressure at the surface will occlude with the triple point low racing to the Gulf of Maine and the end-occlusion low hanging back toward the Jersey shore before moving northeast in tandem with the upper system, to a position near the Twin Forks of Long Island by midnight. An additional small band of very heavy snowfall associated with intense surface frontogenesis may also form adjacent to the surface low and move across coastal New Jersey, through New York City and Long Island. But the main deformation zone will lie to the northeast of the I-95 corridor. Snowfall rates of 2-4"/hr will once again be achieved with this secondary burst of snow overnight. Areas along the axis of heavy snowfall with this deformation zone will intersect areas which receives heavy snowfall during the daylight hours today, leading to very impressive 20-30" totals in from the Catskills to the northern Berkshires and southern Green mountains. Still some uncertainty whether this area of heavy snow continues on a path into Canada or cuts on a more easterly track toward northern New England. At this time will hedge toward a Canada trajectory given westerly-based guidance success with this storms' history. Either way, for northern New England, this storm will rage during the overnight hours and straight into Friday. Fully-phased, there will be little let up in the precipitation from when it starts to when it ends (morning hours in Vermont and New Hampshire/afternoon hours in Maine). Snowfall totals will range from 8-12" in the eastern Adirondacks to 18-24" across Vermont/New Hampshire and 12-18" across interior Maine.


snowfall map

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100. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
12:00 PM GMT on February 28, 2014
sullivanweather has created a new entry.
99. listenerVT
5:13 AM GMT on February 28, 2014
Quoting 97. goofyrider:
northern lights now?


Nothing here, though I'm way overdue and ready! Looks like it's going quiet presently. Maybe tomorrow night.
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98. originalLT
5:13 AM GMT on February 28, 2014
Listener, next week sometime I'll write a short Blog, about the cruise, have to wait till after the funeral of my Step mom. She is being buried today, Friday the 28th, but the service will be Sunday.. We moved up the interment due to the storm forecasted for Monday, People will be arriving this weekend so the service is being moved up from Monday to Sunday.
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97. goofyrider
2:41 AM GMT on February 28, 2014
northern lights now?
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96. listenerVT
1:41 AM GMT on February 27, 2014
Thanks, LT. He enjoys it. :-)


Today we had some sunny snowfall.
In Vermont, clouds are apparently optional.
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95. originalLT
4:58 AM GMT on February 26, 2014
Pretty talented "hubbie" Listener, those snow sculptures look good!
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94. listenerVT
4:08 AM GMT on February 26, 2014
We got some spitting of snow here today, but nothing to write blog about. It felt cold with moist air and some wind. Our snow cover is down to about 7", but what's there is rock solid, except for the new snow dusting on top. My husband's weekend snow sculpture is hard as stone and withstanding the winds nicely.



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93. listenerVT
6:29 AM GMT on February 25, 2014
Vermont today:

My photos at 4:12pm:




Hazecam photo at 5:30pm:
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92. listenerVT
5:37 AM GMT on February 25, 2014
Quoting 90. sullivanweather:
Listener,

It should be a good 15-20 degrees below normal. Teens during the day, around zero at night. Some nights may get colder if the wind settles but that's looking unlikely most nights as we should be in a good northwest/west-northwest flow pattern.

Spring should arrive on time this year. I know it sounds a little odd but the high pressure ridge out west that has been so persistent will start to build east in waves such that the spring roller coaster in temps which come along with ridge/trough patterns should even us out at normal. However, frost and freeze potential will be higher later into the spring given Great Lakes ice cover. Usually the ice cover/colder lake surface temps will help suppress the dewpoints in airmasses arriving from the west. So we'll get our mild days mixed in starting in late March; it'll get things like bulbs blooming once the snow melts off. But we'll still get those cold days and chances for snow. Pretty typical.

It's just until that time we're going to be dealing with another prolonged period of cold -- for a week -- then cold and snow for another good 7-10 days more.


Thank-you! Sounds like a good year to wait until Memorial Day to plant. I don't mind a nip in May as long as it isn't enough to take down the lilacs. I'm a little concerned it will be rainy with flooding. We really need to catch a break in that regard.

Hey, LT! How was the cruise?
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91. originalLT
5:10 PM GMT on February 24, 2014
Thanks for the Mid-Range outlook Sully, so by after the 15th or so, things should break, I guess.
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90. sullivanweather
6:54 AM GMT on February 24, 2014
Listener,

It should be a good 15-20 degrees below normal. Teens during the day, around zero at night. Some nights may get colder if the wind settles but that's looking unlikely most nights as we should be in a good northwest/west-northwest flow pattern.

Spring should arrive on time this year. I know it sounds a little odd but the high pressure ridge out west that has been so persistent will start to build east in waves such that the spring roller coaster in temps which come along with ridge/trough patterns should even us out at normal. However, frost and freeze potential will be higher later into the spring given Great Lakes ice cover. Usually the ice cover/colder lake surface temps will help suppress the dewpoints in airmasses arriving from the west. So we'll get our mild days mixed in starting in late March; it'll get things like bulbs blooming once the snow melts off. But we'll still get those cold days and chances for snow. Pretty typical.

It's just until that time we're going to be dealing with another prolonged period of cold -- for a week -- then cold and snow for another good 7-10 days more.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
89. listenerVT
6:28 AM GMT on February 24, 2014
How cold do you expect it to get this week, Sully? And how do you see the coming of Spring this year?
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88. listenerVT
5:59 AM GMT on February 22, 2014
How's your weather?

Our son and two granddaughters arrived here about an hour ago after a harrowing drive up I-89 in Vermont on glare ice with a dozen cars off the road in a 4 mile stretch. =Whew!=

Take care out there!
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87. listenerVT
1:59 AM GMT on February 21, 2014
42F here today and now we have rain with sleet mixed in.
It started right on schedule at 7pm.
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86. listenerVT
5:46 AM GMT on February 20, 2014
It actually rained a little bit here today. We didn't lose any snow over it. :-)
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85. DocNDswamp
5:28 PM GMT on February 19, 2014
Sneaux hog!
Yet another winter, no measurable accumulation noted at 29.6N 90.7W... although on 4 occasions, could have driven an hour up I49 and found "fluffy".

Seems I'm always teased.
Something about my latitude... and proximity to the warm Gulf Loop Current... and warm noses at 800 mb... c'mon Sully, make it go away!
;)

Cheers, New England friend!
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84. sullivanweather
3:50 PM GMT on February 19, 2014


Here's what it looked like (still does) outside my front window ten minutes ago.
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83. PhillySnow
12:59 PM GMT on February 19, 2014
Quoting 82. listenerVT:


We got about an inch of snow, which arrived sideways!


I see I left out a key detail. It's usually a six week halo time after an episode like I had, during which I'm more at risk. I am to be extra careful until my recheck with the specialist in early March. There is no treatment for Posterior Vitreous Detachment. But one can avoid needing surgery for a Retina Detachment.
Ah. Good to know. Careful, then! And I guess no shoveling! :)
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82. listenerVT
5:10 AM GMT on February 19, 2014
Quoting 81. PhillySnow:
The storm was both more intense than what was expected and within forecasted amounts. (10 miles west of south Philadelphia) We ended up with 2.5 inches, but that was because the storm moved more quickly than expected rather than because of warming layers. Plenty of cold air left after the precip was over. A great little snow storm, and fun that forecasted totals kept increasing yesterday!

Listener: I hope your doctor suggested some rehabilitation strategies for healing this. Can't go on forever being concerned about jostling! We all know from Ally that the body can do amazing things. :)


We got about an inch of snow, which arrived sideways!


I see I left out a key detail. It's usually a six week halo time after an episode like I had, during which I'm more at risk. I am to be extra careful until my recheck with the specialist in early March. There is no treatment for Posterior Vitreous Detachment. But one can avoid needing surgery for a Retina Detachment.
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81. PhillySnow
7:36 PM GMT on February 18, 2014
The storm was both more intense than what was expected and within forecasted amounts. (10 miles west of south Philadelphia) We ended up with 2.5 inches, but that was because the storm moved more quickly than expected rather than because of warming layers. Plenty of cold air left after the precip was over. A great little snow storm, and fun that forecasted totals kept increasing yesterday!

Listener: I hope your doctor suggested some rehabilitation strategies for healing this. Can't go on forever being concerned about jostling! We all know from Ally that the body can do amazing things. :)
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80. Pcroton
3:20 PM GMT on February 18, 2014
"Climate Change".

I get a chuckle at the designation for the way I see things is the Universe, solar system, the stars, planets and moons, the internal planet processes, and the weather on these planets.... is all one fluid, dynamic, continuiously evolving entity.

Earth's climate is like a path in the woods. Ups and downs, twists and turns, no "average" that is being broken in either direction... just one long journey.

Of course we're undergoing climate change. It is a continued natural process of life from inception to death. Our weather wasn't one straight line drawn across a piece of paper that suddenly began to fluctuate the moment man lit his first campfire.

You cannot plot the earth's multi dimensional proceeses on a two dimensional graph and expect to come up with any answers.

I have no problems with science and theories. I have a problem with a lack of adaptation and a desire to go down with the ship which is what "climate scientists" are doing these days.

About all the "climate sciences" have produced are bogus taxes and surcharges placed on our every day lives...and needless grants handed over to "scientists" with nothing more than the charm of your average used car salesman.

Just seems like one big money grab to me at this point. Green tax, carbon tax, fuel surcharge tax.... and all that keeps coming up is "well, it's not as dire as we thought, but we still don't know, so keep that funding coming!"

The theory is a broken one. It's time for a new theory...or just a return to basic science without a headline.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 70 Comments: 12434
79. Pcroton
3:11 PM GMT on February 18, 2014
Quoting 76. sullivanweather:
P,

Yes, snow ratios will be held down along the coastal plain due to the warmer air so a 10, or even 8:1 ratio would keep totals in check.


We did good in the end. Late guidance NAM last night showed the snow getting through before the temps rose. It was dead on.

Got 3" of snow. Now at 45F.

Was very heavy big flaked spring like snow. Roads still covered and white.

Now we get our monthly one week break before the final push of winter comes in.

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78. listenerVT
6:49 AM GMT on February 18, 2014
The locals are saying we won't get much snow up this far ~ a dusting to 6", probably 2-4" for me.
Link

WPTZ:



Philly, the official word is "aging," though this isn't so common before age 65 and I've a ways to go before that age. So I suspect for me the precursor was a fall I took in January ~ especially as I am told that any "jostling" at this point could lead to retina detachment.
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77. overlooked
1:56 AM GMT on February 18, 2014
Erik decided you were right and upped the amount for the eastern (my) end of the county.
Congratulations to you and Kate, may you have many years of happiness together!
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76. sullivanweather
1:21 AM GMT on February 18, 2014
P,

Yes, snow ratios will be held down along the coastal plain due to the warmer air so a 10, or even 8:1 ratio would keep totals in check.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
75. sullivanweather
12:08 AM GMT on February 18, 2014
Quoting 62. Neapolitan:

A) Why do you consider that article to be of particular interest?
B) Why would people need to "put on their stupid hat" to read it?
C) How do you arrive at the conclusion that CP "prides itself in censorship"?



A) Oddly, the string of strong ice storms cited was supposed to be the future of winter storms at one point in time, due to global warming. Snow storms would decrease in deference to ice storms. Then it was more Brown Christmases to come, now it's back to more snow storms. Wash, rinse, repeat.

B) Stupid hat seemed appropriate.

C) Experience.
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74. Pcroton
11:34 PM GMT on February 17, 2014
Evening Sully. This system got interesting in a hurry this evening. A local private forecaster is downplaying the higher amounts we're hearing citing 925mb and surface warmth being too much to get those totals. He's got a good point but it seems the NWS keeps trending higher and as we know they are always conservative.


Here was the HPC final advisory on the latest storm with all state totals.

Here was the previous storm that hit NJ hard.

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73. sullivanweather
11:27 PM GMT on February 17, 2014
Good evening, everyone. I've been too busy this weekend to devote the time needed to address some of the things I got involved with here on Friday. Quite a bit of snow still to shovel and such. Hopefully I get around to posting pics of our massive snow banks. Truly impressive, even for us hardy Northeasterners.

I've been watching this storm with some interest. Looks like the secondary redevelopment should give New England a good storm, possibly as far south as interior southeastern NY and northeast NJ as well. We'll have to watch the radars and satellites to see how this system evolves but if past storms this winter are any indication it would seem an earlier development should be likely, especially given how dynamic this storm is (reports of thundersnow across the Midwest).
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
72. PhillySnow
12:22 PM GMT on February 17, 2014
Quoting 71. listenerVT:
Philly, I wonder why climate change is SUCH an emotional button pusher for some people. Could it be fear or greed? That is: Is it Fear of what's to come or is it that some have a vested financial interest in things turning out a certain way?

The brain is amazing. A week ago I was surprised to find hundreds of floaters in my eye, including some large and complex. My brain has already started looking around them and ignoring them! I can drive again, and if the "dust bunny" floaters start to distract me, I need only hold my hand over that eye for a moment to allow my eye to refocus further out, and I hardly notice them. Impressive!
Maybe fear of change; a lot of people really don't like having to change. Greed, political identity, maybe even guilt. Really hard to find neutral parties.

That's interesting about your eye. Do you know why? Hope it stops soon!

We're getting a little snow tonight. Is it coming your way, Listener? sullivanweather, are you watching this one?
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71. listenerVT
1:21 AM GMT on February 17, 2014
Philly, I wonder why climate change is SUCH an emotional button pusher for some people. Could it be fear or greed? That is: Is it Fear of what's to come or is it that some have a vested financial interest in things turning out a certain way?

The brain is amazing. A week ago I was surprised to find hundreds of floaters in my eye, including some large and complex. My brain has already started looking around them and ignoring them! I can drive again, and if the "dust bunny" floaters start to distract me, I need only hold my hand over that eye for a moment to allow my eye to refocus further out, and I hardly notice them. Impressive!
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70. PhillySnow
8:34 PM GMT on February 16, 2014
Steven DiMartino is having an interesting conversation on Twitter today related to our little climate change foray. (@nynjpaweather). He feels some of the science is faulty. I don't understand his technical points, and I'd like to. I totally respect his competence and independence from any agenda other than good meteorology.

Twitter is very transparent - little me could witness his heated conversation with a colleague he respects. The topic elicits such strong emotions that it's hard to have true dialogue; even for colleagues who are on the same page!

That being said, we're at 29F, our forecast high today. Expecting a bit of snow tomorrow night; worst case being possible icing by morning. (near Philadelphia, PA)

Hope your eye gets better soon, Listener!
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69. listenerVT
2:43 AM GMT on February 16, 2014
Our plow guy arrived in time to find my driveway before I had to leave to work at the Library this morning. That was a relief. Got to work and couldn't shovel (which I love to do!) because of an eye issue, and my coworker couldn't shovel because she's been having chest pains and is awaiting a doc visit. So we were a motley crew and my dear husband (DH) came over and did the shoveling for us! :-)
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68. listenerVT
2:40 AM GMT on February 16, 2014
Quoting 65. PhillySnow:
Whoa! You're a poet, Listener! That's beautiful.

And I totally agree. That's what I like about sharing thoughts on our friendly blogs - we can discuss the science without the agendas. Just trying to understand what's happening, as we do with our storms.


Well said, Philly! Rock on!
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67. Pcroton
8:51 PM GMT on February 15, 2014
Nice call on the second nor'easter, Sullivan.

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66. PhillySnow
2:29 PM GMT on February 15, 2014
Quoting 62. Neapolitan:
B) Why would people need to "put on their stupid hat" to read it?
Hi Neapolitan. I can't answer A & C for Sully, but I can answer B from my perspective: It was in the comments, not the article.
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65. PhillySnow
2:25 PM GMT on February 15, 2014
Quoting 63. listenerVT:


Compassion without truth is not compassion but a kind of manipulation. Truth without compassion is not truth but cruelty.
Whoa! You're a poet, Listener! That's beautiful.

And I totally agree. That's what I like about sharing thoughts on our friendly blogs - we can discuss the science without the agendas. Just trying to understand what's happening, as we do with our storms.
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64. PhillySnow
2:21 PM GMT on February 15, 2014
Quoting 57. sullivanweather:
If anyone wants to put on their "stupid hat" please read this nonsense from a site which prides itself in censorship.


http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/02/13/32868 21/winter-storm-pax/

That conversation was painful to read.
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63. listenerVT
1:42 PM GMT on February 15, 2014
Quoting 54. sullivanweather:
I don't mind the climate change comments. Unlike many of the climate change blogs I don't censor dissenting opinions.



Thanks, Sully. I'm also fine with anyone's opinion, as long as they offer it in keeping with the respectful, open, friendly approach the folks on this blog usually take. I've seen blogs go downhill when people begin to imagine that their topic matters more than their fellow human beings. None of us has all the answers, so it's great to converse and kind of brainstorm. But truth and compassion are two parts of one whole. Compassion without truth is not compassion but a kind of manipulation. Truth without compassion is not truth but cruelty. There...steps off soapbox. ;-)
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62. Neapolitan
1:38 PM GMT on February 15, 2014
Quoting 57. sullivanweather:
If anyone wants to put on their "stupid hat" please read this nonsense from a site which prides itself in censorship.


http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/02/13/32868 21/winter-storm-pax/

A) Why do you consider that article to be of particular interest? B) Why would people need to "put on their stupid hat" to read it? C) How do you arrive at the conclusion that CP "prides itself in censorship"?

The piece seems very reasonable and non-confrontational. More than once it states that no single weather event can or should be linked to global warming. In fact, it even ends with this: "[T]he differing extremes on a global scale can make climate change difficult to understand, which is why it is more useful to look at long-term warming trends, rather than basing decisions on climate change off one singular storm." So I remain unsure as to how or why the piece would upset any so-called "skeptics".

So far as censorship, I've not yet seen a single instance of that there. I have seen the site's editors show a willingness to prevent the dissemination of pseudo-science and other nonsense via their site, a trait the "all points of view are equal" major media should seek to emulate. So do you have evidence of any censorship that's gone on there?
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61. listenerVT
1:27 PM GMT on February 15, 2014
We ended with 12.75", and for some reason our plow guy has not come. Hope he's okay!
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60. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
5:45 AM GMT on February 15, 2014
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55968
59. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
5:43 AM GMT on February 15, 2014



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58. PhillySnow
2:28 AM GMT on February 15, 2014
Quoting 57. sullivanweather:
If anyone wants to put on their "stupid hat" please read this nonsense from a site which prides itself in censorship.


http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/02/13/32868 21/winter-storm-pax/

OK; I'll have to read that one in the morning!
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57. sullivanweather
12:02 AM GMT on February 15, 2014
If anyone wants to put on their "stupid hat" please read this nonsense from a site which prides itself in censorship.


http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/02/13/32868 21/winter-storm-pax/

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56. PhillySnow
10:09 PM GMT on February 14, 2014
Quoting 54. sullivanweather:
I don't mind the climate change comments. Unlike many of the climate change blogs I don't censor dissenting opinions.

Thanks! It's interesting to discuss sometimes in relation to observed weather.
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55. sullivanweather
8:51 PM GMT on February 14, 2014
We ended up with 15.9" of snow here in Barryville. Biggest snowstorm since Feb 2010 (33.5").
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54. sullivanweather
8:45 PM GMT on February 14, 2014
I don't mind the climate change comments. Unlike many of the climate change blogs I don't censor dissenting opinions.

Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
53. listenerVT
7:06 PM GMT on February 14, 2014
Quoting 52. PhillySnow:
Good question! Is there a clear relation between the frogs and climate? There are other influences, like pesticides in the soil. I haven't seen the climate connection. (Sully - if you'd rather we discuss this elsewhere, please let us know.)

We're at 29F; expecting 2-4 inches of snow tomorrow. I am skeptical - I think our sweet winter of being cold enough to support snow is pretty much over.

Enjoy the rest of the storm, New Englanders! (This would have been the week to go to the White Mountains! Next year I'm consulting everyone first.)



I'll ask a dear old friend whose daughter is actually a frog biologist.


I wonder if what we're getting now is mostly from the bands of the storm or if three's some Lake Effect thrown in.
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52. PhillySnow
6:42 PM GMT on February 14, 2014
Quoting 51. listenerVT:


I aways wonder…if it's mutating frogs, what's it doing to us? We're mostly water.
Good question! Is there a clear relation between the frogs and climate? There are other influences, like pesticides in the soil. I haven't seen the climate connection. (Sully - if you'd rather we discuss this elsewhere, please let us know.)

We're at 29F; expecting 2-4 inches of snow tomorrow. I am skeptical - I think our sweet winter of being cold enough to support snow is pretty much over.

Enjoy the rest of the storm, New Englanders! (This would have been the week to go to the White Mountains! Next year I'm consulting everyone first.)

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51. listenerVT
6:35 PM GMT on February 14, 2014
Quoting 49. PhillySnow:
Thanks, Keeper! Great videos - concise and to the point.


I aways wonder…if it's mutating frogs, what's it doing to us? We're mostly water.
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50. listenerVT
6:32 PM GMT on February 14, 2014
8.5" of snow now, and the second half has big flakes coming down. 25F with wind about 13kts.
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Thomas is an avid weather enthusiast, landscaper and organic gardener. This blog is dedicated to Northeast and tropical weather forecasting. Enjoy!

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