Preparations must be rushed to completion

By: sullivanweather , 2:28 PM GMT on October 28, 2012

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Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings
Current watches, warning and advisories issued by the National Weather Service. Courtesy of NOAA.

___________________________________________


Well, this is it. Any and all preparations for Hurricane Sandy must be completed by this evening and no later. If you wait until Monday you will be risking your life venturing out into this storm. A brief overview of the worst Sandy has to offer is a sobering picture of an unfolding natural disaster. Most importantly, in terms of risk to life, property and infrastructure will be the storm surge. The track Sandy is now expected to take is the worst-case scenario for New York City and surrounding areas. A surge of over 12' is expected across western Long Island Sound, New York Harbor and Raritan Bay. A surge of this height will flood several subway lines, overtop seawalls along the south side of Manhattan and flood La Guardia airport causing massive disruptions which will last long after Sandy has passed. Wind will be the second most dangerous aspect of this storm, despite the 4-10 inches of rain expect long and to the left of Sandy's track. Many, many trees will be toppled over, and large ones at that, also many large limbs and branches will be snapped off. Not only is there a high risk of being crushed by a falling tree, people caught out driving may very well get stranded, trapped by fallen trees on roads, for many days before a crew could reach them. Yes, it is that serious. Inland flooding will also be a major concern with the expected amounts of rain. River stages along many of the rivers across Pennsylvania and New Jersey should reach moderate flood stage at the very least. In addition, with many of the trees losing their foliage over the last week, along with much of the remaining foliage expected to be stripped with Sandy, storm drains and culverts will become clogged with leaves causing extensive ponding of water. The storm which is bearing down upon the Northeast will be unlike any storm many of us have ever seen. Residents along the shores in the aforementioned highest surge risk areas will experience the highest surges yet recorded for their portions of the coast. Many of the residents of northern New Jersey, southeast New York and eastern Pennsylvania will experience sustained winds unlike any those areas have ever experienced. These are heavily forested areas so tree loss will be extensive and power outages in these areas may be the longest in the storm's aftermath.

The rest of the forecast will remain as is, updated with some graphics.


Synopsis

As of the 8am National Hurricane Center advisory Hurricane Sandy was located at 32.1°N, 73.1°W, moving northeast at 10MPH. Maximum sustained winds are 75MPH with higher gusts. Minimum central pressure is 951mb and is dropping rapidly, 9mb in the last 3 hours. Tropical storm force winds extend out from the center 520 miles with hurricane force winds extending up to 175 miles from the center. This is an incredibly large storm and is approaching record size in the Atlantic hurricane analong.


East Coast IR satellite image.

Track, structure and intensity forecast

The satellite presentation of Sandy is one of a highly sheared hurricane struggling with the entrainment of dry air, which working in tandem have left Sandy devoid of convection in the southern semi-circle of the cyclone. This is due, in large part, to a rather potent upper-level low pressure located over the Florida Straits. In fact, there's been a warming of the cloud tops in the northern semi-circle observed as well, all pointing to a temporary weakening of Sandy over the next 24 hours as she undergoes structural changes. Otherwise, Sandy remains an impressive feature on satellite, occupying a huge region of the western Atlantic Ocean. Most of the convection associated with Sandy lies in a large cyclonically curved band over the northern half of the storm, wrapping back into the western core of Sandy's circulation. Outflow is excellent to the north and east and is being aided by a large cold-cored low pressure southeast of Newfoundland, fanning the high cloud blow off from Sandy several thousand miles downstream.

In the short term, Sandy will continue to struggle with the shear provided by the upper-level low and may very well weaken just below hurricane strength. Sandy will also parallel the Southeast US Coastline, remaining about 200 miles offshore through the next 48 hours. Once clearing Cape Hatteras, North Carolina the storm will begin to turn back towards the north as Sandy begins to feel the effects of an approaching deep mid-latitude trough. Embedded within this trough will be a rather potent shortwave at the trough's base which will undercut Sandy as the trough tilts negative. As the trough goes full negative tilt it will capture Sandy and slingshot her back toward the East Coast. When exactly this happens will ultimately determine where along the coast Sandy will make landfall. The sooner the trough captures Sandy, the further south landfall will occur. This puts a huge stretch of coastline at risk for a direct hit from the center of Sandy. A highly unusual track but looking back at recent times we have had a storm chart a similar course through the offshore waters of the Northeast, through it was during the winter season with the February 2010 Blizzard. After Sandy makes landfall models diverge with some looping Sandy cyclonically along the coastal plain before lifting north into Canada. Other models simply continue pushing Sandy west, then northwest and north toward the eastern Great Lakes region.


February 2010 Blizzard - radar loop of landfall.

The intensity forecast for Sandy is a very tricky one indeed. Not necessarily for the short-term, but the long -term when baroclinic energy is introduced. Over the next 48 hours there should be little change with Sandy as she remains a purely tropical cyclone with a deep, warm-core, despite a rather amorphous structure throughout this timeframe. Maximum sustained winds should remain in the 60-70kt range and the storm's central pressure will fluctuate between 965-972mb. Thereafter, as the trough catches up to Sandy, she will take on more of a subtropical-like structure, a warm seclusion storm and her windfield will greatly expand. This poses its own set of risks and benefits. For one, an expanding windfield will allow Sandy to pile up much more water along the coast before her arrival and this is where her general landfall location will become more critical. A late capture of Sandy by the trough, Sandy heads into New England, a shoreline much more capable of absorbing a storm surge. An early capture of Sandy would bring her into the Delmarva, where locations along Delaware Bay could see a catastrophic storm surge of 10-15' above normal tides. But there's a worst-case scenario I will detail later in the blog. What's important to note is that the introduction of baroclinic energy will spark a new round of intensification which should drop the central pressure to ~950mb. This is where a warm-seclusion sub-tropical storm, as Sandy is predicted to be by then, might pose an enhanced wind threat in the areas immediate to Sandy's landfall location. A short, rapid drop in central pressure combined with the whiplash effect of Sandy being captured and shot back toward the west could have an area of coastline in the right-front quadrant immediate to the center of the storm see a 1-2 hour period of 80-100mph winds with much higher gusts, similar to the 1962 Columbus Day Storm along the Oregon Coast. This has to be considered as a distinct possibility given the storm's expected structure after interaction with the mid-latitude trough. After making landfall Sandy will slowly fill and weaken but remain a significant weather-maker over the Northeast through Wednesday and linger through Friday.

Impacts (wind, rainfall, snowfall based on central NJ landfall)

Storm surge:
This is the sleeper part of this storm. Not that storm surge isn't expected, nor expected to be bad. It's that it could be something we've never seen before in the modern-era and I will explain. Several forecast models track Sandy along, or just to the south of Long Island as it curls into the coast. Should Sandy retain a strong warm-core in a warm seclusion scenario this will force a tremendous amount of water into the bottlenecks of Raritan Bay, Manhasset Bay, Flushing Bay, Little Neck Bay, etc., in and around New York City. This could easily produce a 12-15' storm surge into these areas capable of producing catastrophic damage, including flooding lower Manhattan and flooding the New York City subway system. This will also result in a shutdown of the financial district and La Guardia Airport for perhaps a period of time after the storm passes. This is the worst-case scenario in terms of breadth of impact across the socioeconomic spectrum but not the worst-case scenario in general. Should Sandy take a southerly route into the coast and make landfall just south of Delaware Bay a similar surge of up to 15' may be pushed into this region, likewise producing catastrophic damage not seen in these areas in modern times. In addition to the surge, very large and battering waves will build over the Atlantic due to the long fetch easterly flow. This storm will not be like Irene, moving parallel to the coastline, it will come in at a perpendicular angle in most scenarios. This will fully realize surge potential unlike any storm this region of coast has ever seen. Since most storms impacting the coast in this region have a northerly component to forward movement, wind direction turns as the storm zips by. However, with Sandy, wind direction will be with the storm movement and not turning quickly offshore with her passage. Moreover, the wind will be of that direction for 18-30 hours preceding the storm, which will allow seas to build over several high tide cycles also at astronomically high levels. Could this get any worse?
The most likely location for landfall, as per the NHC and a clustering of deterministic and ensemble models, has been the southern/central New Jersey Shore. While this would also produce a large storm surge of 5-10' along the coast to the north of the landfall location for hundreds of miles, it would be hitting a coastline well-guarded by barrier islands, buffering the surge to some extent. So storm surge, unlike many storms of the recent past will play a major role. Only a few take the storm north into New England where there's more oblique angles of the coast relative to storm movement. This would produce a 4-8' surge in some of the bays along the southern New England coastline, causing moderate damage to these areas, but these are surges experienced in these locations with some frequency and wouldn't be out of the ordinary.


Wind:

Photobucket

There's going to be two areas which receive a significant wind storm from Sandy as she traverses through the Northeast. First, mainly out ahead of the storm a persistently easterly component wind of 30-50mph with gusts to 70mph will impact just about all of the Northeast, east of the Appalachians and south of I-90. The high elevation regions of the Catskills, Berkshires, Poconos could easily see wind gusts over hurricane force, as will areas along the coast. This will cause extensive tree damage to the region and will leave its scar on the forest for years to come. Widespread and lengthy power outages are a given and preparations should commence now for being without power for several days. Plus there's the wild card of Sandy's core remaining tight and energized by baroclinic energy to produce a mesoscale wind event close to the landfall location. The structure of Sandy will be such that there may be multiple bands of enhanced wind maxima. So there will be peaks and lulls in the action. The second area of high winds will be on the backside of the storm, likely from western/central Pennsylvania down the spine of the Appalachians to West Virginia. Here elevations above 2000' may see a horrific wind storm with sustained 60-80mph winds with gusts over 100mph as lower elevation areas receive 45-60 mph winds with gusts to hurricane force. This region, too, will also see extensive tree damage and widespread power outages lasting several days.

Rainfall:

Photobucket

As Sandy moves up the coast and interacts with the mid-latitude features that will yield our superstorm, a predecessor rainfall event (pre-event) will commence across western Pennsylvania and western New York Saturday afternoon into Sunday yielding 1-3 inches of rain in these areas. There will be a 18-24 lull in steady precipitation before the main show begins early Monday morning as Sandy morphs from a tropical low to whatever state she takes. A heavy band of deformation precipitation will develop along the backside of the storm of 1-2"/3hr rates. This area of rainfall will move across the coastal plain from the Delmarva through New Jersey, eastern Pennsylvania and southeast New York west of the Hudson River. A more banded, convective type of precipitation will occur in areas east of here, with some convection capable of producing isolated tornadoes. As Sandy begins to ricochet back toward the coast the deformation axis will slide west as well, as showery, banded rainfall overtakes areas to the east. This precipitation will have a heavily influence owning to topography so upslope areas of the Catskills, Berkshires and Poconos will see amounts up to double the basin average while rain-shadowed areas may see only half basin average rainfall. In total areas to the west and south of Sandy's track, from New Jersey through central Pennsylvania and south to Maryland, northern Virginia and Delaware, anywhere from 3-8 inches of rainfall will be common with some areas seeing as much as a foot of rainfall. Areas along and to the immediate north of Sandy's track will see an average of 2-6 inches of rainfall with isolated amounts up to 10 inches. This will be especially true across the aforementioned areas of higher elevation. Areas east of the Hudson River should see 1-3 inches of rain with isolated amounts to 6 inches; this will tend to be where persistent banding sets up.

Snowfall:
This "Frankenstorm" will have a wintry side to it as well. Now, depending on where Sandy comes ashore will determine the extent and amount of snowfall seen across the region. The snowfall will be on the southwestern flank of the storm in the cold sector, covering southwestern Pennsylvania, southern Ohio, eastern Kentucky, West Virginia, western Maryland and western Virginia. Snow could even fall as far south and eastern Tennessee, western North Carolina, upstate South Carolina and northern Georgia, though in light amounts. As far as the amounts go, some high elevation areas of West Virginia could see as much as two feet of snow! Elsewhere along the spine of the Appalachians from 8-16 inches of snow is well within the realm from the northern Smoky Mountains to the Laurel Highlands. Lower elevation areas, including the Pittsburgh metro area could even see up to 6 inches of heavy wet snow. This will pose a serious problem when wind is gradually introduced into the storm for these regions.

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Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar
Radar loop of the Northeast region. Courtesy of Weather Underground.

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Northeast SST's
Sea-surface temperatures off the Northeast Coast. Courtesy of NOAA.


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73. overlooked
12:39 PM GMT on November 04, 2012
Parts of Neversink are still without power, got mine back last night and spent a lot of time looking at pictures of the devastation. I only saw a TV for a couple mins on Thurs and I can't believe what I see!
My daughters friend near Breezy Point lost everything in the storm surge, but she and her dog are fine and staying with a cousin on LI.
I'm really be interested in the storm coming on Wed.but I still have the borrowed generator.
Any good sites for storm pics?
Good to know most here are safe and sound!
Member Since: February 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 21
72. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
12:35 PM GMT on November 04, 2012
sullivanweather has created a new entry.
71. MarylandGirl
8:04 AM GMT on November 04, 2012
Thanks Sully.....looking forward to update. We are supposed to head to Maine to close up camp on Thursday and wondered how the storm will affect travel....flying out of BWI early thursday...
Member Since: September 10, 2001 Posts: 2 Comments: 486
70. sullivanweather
6:05 AM GMT on November 04, 2012
The blog isn't fully completed and I have to head to work. Will post in the morning before I leave. Since the game doesn't start until 4 I should have plenty of time to get this thing written out with some level of detail.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
69. originalLT
5:07 AM GMT on November 04, 2012
Thanks Sully.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8010
68. listenerVT
2:30 AM GMT on November 04, 2012
Quoting sullivanweather:
Good evening, everyone!

I'm going to try and get out a blog tonight about the upcoming nor'easter. Tomorrow I'm likely to head down to my mother's to watch the Giants-Steelers game so hopefully I can get everything finished up on this latest upcoming storm tonight.

I also want to give a brief assessment of Sandy, although giving Sandy a proper assessment may have to wait for a more in-depth blog.



Thanks, Sully! Looking forward to it.

Good luck with the game.
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5600
67. sullivanweather
1:25 AM GMT on November 04, 2012
Good evening, everyone!

I'm going to try and get out a blog tonight about the upcoming nor'easter. Tomorrow I'm likely to head down to my mother's to watch the Giants-Steelers game so hopefully I can get everything finished up on this latest upcoming storm tonight.

I also want to give a brief assessment of Sandy, although giving Sandy a proper assessment may have to wait for a more in-depth blog.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
66. goofyrider
11:31 PM GMT on November 03, 2012
JCP & L repaired snapped house feed today.  Juice sometime between 7-14 Nov.   Lots of people trying to get by on space heaters], gas ovens etc.  Life for our Squad may heat up soon.
Member Since: February 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2957
65. Skyepony (Mod)
11:15 PM GMT on November 03, 2012
Glad to see people getting their power back!

TheShovler3~ Congrats! & what great luck you started with:)
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 39469
64. listenerVT
12:51 PM GMT on November 03, 2012
Sully! Welcome back!! So glad you're okay!

Any thoughts on Wednesday's possible nor'easter?
The coast suuuure doesn't need another one right now.


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63. listenerVT
12:48 PM GMT on November 03, 2012
= Shovler!!! = Sweet Congratulations!!!

May you be as happy as we have been these 38+ years!

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62. NumberWise
11:24 PM GMT on November 02, 2012
Welcome back, Sully. Is there much damage around you? It sounds like trees were snapping off.

Congrats, Shovler!
Member Since: October 22, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1739
61. sullivanweather
8:24 PM GMT on November 02, 2012
Woo!!

Got power back!!

In fact, we got it back last night around midnight but for some reason our phone lines went down. We must've got them back sometime between 8 this morning and 2 this afternoon. Either way, it feels good to be back.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
60. TheShovler3
4:16 PM GMT on November 02, 2012
All turned out well for me. I got married on the 27th also my birthday and after a week of setting up at an old barn in the cold, rain and wind saturday was still, warm and sunny here. We even had a rainbow. The night went flawless. Instead of relaxing we then went all day sunday to take all of the stuff back from the barn especially my 1949 coke machine that was there before the hurricane. Luckily for me we didnt' have a honeymoon planned until jan or else we would never have left. Wind was very strong but thankfully we dont have too many pines or willows which seemed to take the brunt of the wind. Never lost power and rainfall was really nothing too bad. i don't know how i lucked out to get such an amazing day saturday and have it go so well but i'll take it!

Best wishes to all of you dealing with aftermath of the storm!!!
Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2579
59. originalLT
2:23 PM GMT on November 02, 2012
That long post of mine in Blizz's blog, #1088, is now on his earlier thread, since he started a new thread this morning, if you want to read it.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8010
58. originalLT
3:01 AM GMT on November 02, 2012
Thanks Sully, I made a rather long post on Blizz's blog about what happened to me here in my immediate area in Stamford CT. I was very lucky, but so much of the entire North East was not. See my post # 1088 over at Blizz's blog.
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57. listenerVT
2:06 AM GMT on November 01, 2012
Quoting sullivanweather:
Just wanted to check in and say all is well here. According to nyseg we may be out of power till election day. As long as i get to vote I'll be happy.


Thanks for checking in, Sully!!

SOOO glad you're okay! And thanks for caring to vote!


HAPPY HALLOWE'EN! You've had enough of a trick, time for some treats!


I calll this: "Wow! Great costume!"
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56. sullivanweather
11:15 AM GMT on October 31, 2012
Just wanted to check in and say all is well here. According to nyseg we may be out of power till election day. As long as i get to vote I'll be happy.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
55. listenerVT
3:54 AM GMT on October 31, 2012
Dabbio, you would not be alone in your confusion!
This was a first for everybody!!

Hoping to hear from Sully soon that he's got power back.
He probably spent the day working on tree damage and is back to work tonight...if the roads are passable.

Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5600
54. Dabbio
4:15 PM GMT on October 30, 2012
Quoting listenerVT:
Dabbio (#44) ~ There certainly will be intense analysis of this system. It will be fascinating to find out what has been learned from this. Your query is part of that.


Thanks, listener. A brief note by Blizz made it clear to me that I have no idea what this storm was about. I look forward to further analyses. Live and learn.
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53. listenerVT
2:29 PM GMT on October 30, 2012
Dabbio (#44) ~ There certainly will be intense analysis of this system. It will be fascinating to find out what has been learned from this. Your query is part of that.
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52. listenerVT
2:24 PM GMT on October 30, 2012
Goofyrider ~ Thanks for checking in! That's important work you're doing!! The stories are heartbreaking and the heroism heartwarming.
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51. listenerVT
2:16 PM GMT on October 30, 2012
Sully, I hope you get your power back today and that the tree loss is manageable. It sure didn't sound good last night. When you catch your breath and have some power to spare again, let us know how you are.
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50. goofyrider
4:42 AM GMT on October 30, 2012

Think most of the phone and power are out in Monmouth Co by the shore.  At the squad building we have the back up M-G set and fiber link to the Verizon central station in town for phone, internet and tv.   Winds from the south 20-30 kts pressure up to 980mb.  Last two rescues are gumby suits, boat and stokes basket, two at one location and three at another, both  in waste deep water.  Last one house was failing.
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49. listenerVT
1:26 AM GMT on October 30, 2012
Early evening I rescued our two seven month old kittens. They're indoor cats, but we allow them out on our screened in back porch. Most of the time they behave pretty well, but once in awhile they climb the screens. I heard them mewing and took a look. BOTH of them were up on the crossbeams at the top of the porch, and the wind was picking up! I had already put away the porch furniture, so had to fetch a chair fast. Silly kitties!
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48. listenerVT
1:17 AM GMT on October 30, 2012
So grateful, Sully!

Sad for your trees. :-( We are really worried about ours. A friend of mine lost 100 trees in that 1 Dec 2010 storm here, when we lost 3. My biologist son says that when a tree falls all the other vegetation around it cheers! because the resources can be used differently. But that sounds like too many trees all at once. I hope your house is safe.

My husband planned to leave work at 5:30pm and come home to clean out the garage and put his new car in. But, they got a crisis to fix at work, so he had to work late.
Fortunately, I cleaned the garage in daylight to surprise him! :-D When he called to tell me he'd be late, I told him and he was sooo relieved! :-)

So his new Honda is in the garage (the Honda Fit fit! LOL!), my Mini is tucked up as close to the garage door as possible (in the hopes that if one of the big White Pines falls onto the house it will be deflected away from my car by the porch roof) and a friend's car that we're allowing to be here for a month is safely aroudn the side of the garage, away from trees.

We're going to sleep downstairs in the livingroom tonight incase a tree hits our roof.


My other big feat of the day was procuring the last two D batteries in town!

I also got a flu shot.

So I'm prepared for just about anything now. Ha!
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47. NumberWise
11:44 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
Thanks, Sully. Stay safe!
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46. sullivanweather
11:35 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
Im signing off for the night. Have to conserve my phone battery
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45. goofyrider
11:12 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
Spring Lake NJ   Winds 30-45 backed from N to E, G<60,  Temp 60 F,   Seas confused 8-12  Ft  breakers. Numerous trees down, power and phone out.  At least 2 miles of new boardwalk  since Irene out to sea.   Responded to at least 30 reports of wires down hot wires on ground and flaming trees(1).  pressure dropped to 956 , now trending up.  Rain= 1.50 in since morning of the 28th.
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44. Dabbio
10:16 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
I think that we can probably stand to learn a lot more about the three-dimensional structure and dynamics of these puppies, as rare as they might be, rather than stay fixated on troughs and ridges. What I have been seeing, and wondering about, is how all that dry air off the SC/GA/FL coasts could have been pumping into the rear end of this thing and not be drying it out, and even more, how it could survive having its top blown off into Canada for the last day or two and still have some kickapoo juice downstairs. i.e., at the surface, rather than where some of the measurements may have been taken. It looks to me, except for what may yet be a record breaking surge at 9 pm full moon high tide in NYC tonight, that this thing is a few hours from over. As a complete amateur, I will be happy to be proven wrong.

Also, as I look at the very large apparent divergence aloft, which maybe could not have been predicted, but which I did not hear commented on even when observable, had to have weakened the impacts below, no? Maybe not. OK, let's give it a few more hours, but--again except for the slamming of the the back door with this storm surge down the Island and the Sound, I think it is a wrap for NYC. News media in full denial mode. Again, perfectly willing to have my rear end handed to me as I walk out the door.

I grant that the southern mid-Atlantic got/is getting slammed hard. Is it the storm of the century?

--Brooklyn, NY, 6:00 p.m., 64℉, 39 mph NE, gusting to 50 mph, light rain
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43. sullivanweather
10:10 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
If my words makes no sense i blame autocorrect on the phone
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42. sullivanweather
10:03 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
Between 50-60mph in gusts. 25-35 sustained. We've heard about 20-30the trees break across the street and about the same in the back yard
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
41. Zachary Labe
9:36 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
Quoting sullivanweather:
We lost power and are losing trees at the rate of 3-4/min.

Wow, stay safe! What do you estimate the winds to be?
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
40. sullivanweather
9:30 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
We lost power and are losing trees at the rate of 3-4/min.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
39. listenerVT
8:02 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
My brother, in Needham, MA just had an attic window blow out! The power is already out in Lake George, NY, and my cousin in Derry, NH has already lost power and internet once (it's back on).

Water in NYC is "6 ft high and rising."
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38. originalLT
6:15 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
Hi Sully and everyone. This storm is "flying" now, moving NW at 28mph, at that speed it will be on the coast at or just South of Atlantic city by about 6pm. The main brunt of the precip and worst winds appear to be heading to NJ. Here at my house, we have winds out of the NE at 20-30mph with higher gusts. I've hardly have had any rain, just enough to wet the ground. This storm is NOT living up to the "hype", at least here in Sw CT., at least wind wise and precip. wise. There coastal flood portion is however living up to it's billing. NYC. is being hit hard with flooding from the huge tidal increase. Satellite and radar presentations for me, my area, are not impressive in the up-coming hours. Meanwhile the Barometric pressure is down to 28.91" and falling fast. My idea or feeling is, Sully, that maybe since the storm intensified and Kept it's tropical characteristics more than they thought, thereby keeping the strongest winds more tightly around the center and not spreading out as much(except in the SW quadrant) that is why we here in CT. are not getting as strong a wind as we thought. See post #599 in Blizz's blog, by Marrieta moon, about this possibility. Thanks.
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37. listenerVT
6:12 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
Wow, Sully! You called it!

The waves just north of Atlantic City are phenomenal!

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36. listenerVT
6:01 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
We have a new record folks! 940mb
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35. listenerVT
3:35 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
jerseycityjoan ~ I look forward to hearing from you whenever you can post and tell your tale. Sounds like you may end up hosting the folks from downstairs for a day or so.

Sandy is all trick and no treat!! 90mph with gusts to 115 now and pressure 943mb!! Just one millibar above the record! EGADS!!!

Take care, all!!
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34. jerseycityjoan
2:52 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
I am about to go back to sleep -- I hope.

I expect an all nighter or close to it, as I stand vigilant over the possessions in my second floor apartment located about 10 blocks from the Hudson and less than half that distance to the edge of a marina.

My basement neighbors with the dog and the two cats decided not to go a shelter, even though they got water up the knees in their apartment from Irene.

The stage is being set as Sandy makes her way to us.

We have become participants in a large drama that will take place tonight and tomorrow too. Our roles will be limited by the narrow choices that remain to us, once we decided to ride things out in our building.

Tonight will be pitch dark outside, the wind will howl and the streets will end up covered with water that desperately seeks for a new place to go.

What next?

Well, that's what we want to know too. There are many others here that will have their own Sandy Storm drama. We look forward to hearing your tales.

More later.

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33. zotty
1:03 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
Quoting sullivanweather:
I'm off to work. I'll have my phone on me so should anyone post a comment over the next few hours I should get a chance to respond to it within 20 minutes or so.

Tomorrow I should be here all day long as long as the power remain intact.


Hey Sully- I hope you had a good one at work. I thought you may be interested in this-
Link

There has been so much more wind over the water than even a mile or two inland. 20 knots of steady wind for a day causes coastal flooding in the western LI Sound. The wind direction has been and continues to be a worst case scenario. Pretty crazy...
Member Since: August 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 778
32. listenerVT
12:21 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
Thanks, Sully!

Ohhh wow. Sandy has increased to 85 and lowered to 946 and looks to be headed straight up Delaware Bay! That will destroy Cape May (and so much else)!

My forecast has increased to 35-45 sustained, with gusts to 75!! Eek!!
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5600
31. partylight
7:28 AM GMT on October 29, 2012
Well, things are soon going to get exciting. Looks like Sandy has an eye again and is making it's turn. Be safe everyone.
Member Since: December 8, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 110
30. goofyrider
5:20 AM GMT on October 29, 2012
Sully New post up for R Maue
Member Since: February 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2957
29. sullivanweather
5:17 AM GMT on October 29, 2012
I'm off to work. I'll have my phone on me so should anyone post a comment over the next few hours I should get a chance to respond to it within 20 minutes or so.

Tomorrow I should be here all day long as long as the power remain intact.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
28. sullivanweather
5:12 AM GMT on October 29, 2012
Listener,

That red area is supposed to represent the higher terrain of western Vermont. The low-resolution of the pic is what makes trying to draw contours in that area tough but I tried my best to get a line of orange between the 'Dacks and the Greens.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
27. sullivanweather
5:07 AM GMT on October 29, 2012
Quoting LakeWorthFinn:
Stay safe my friend!


Thank you! I think we've done everything we could thus far to ride this one out. We even got the landlord to come by this morning and take out three trees in the yard in danger of falling so the house should be safe from that threat. Just gotta hope we don't lose power for a week. =(
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
26. sullivanweather
5:06 AM GMT on October 29, 2012
Listener,

Lake Champlain should get some 7-9' waves along the southwest shores. Sandy's gonna roil the waters there too.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
25. sullivanweather
5:05 AM GMT on October 29, 2012
Numberwise,

By Tuesday night the storm will be winding down. So Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday may see some lingering showers and some 10-20mph breezes but that should be just about it.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
24. listenerVT
5:04 AM GMT on October 29, 2012
Sully, I'm very curious about your wind map. Why is it that with the storm curving around from NY toward VT, you show a straight line (of red) up the western side of VT from MA nearly to Canada? Is that primarily because those are the western slopes of the Green Mountains? Wait, that doesn't quite match where the mountain ridge runs, as I see you have it in the valley between the Greens and the Adirondacks. I'd love to hear more about that when you have time.
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5600
23. LakeWorthFinn
4:37 AM GMT on October 29, 2012
Stay safe my friend!
Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 67 Comments: 7419

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Thomas is an avid weather enthusiast, landscaper and organic gardener. This blog is dedicated to Northeast and tropical weather forecasting. Enjoy!

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