Significant Severe Weather Outbreak Saturday
Current watches, warnings and advisories.
Current watches, warning and advisories issued by the National Weather Service. Courtesy of NOAA.
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Synopsis
A summer-like evening is in store for the Northeast this Friday night as broad, southerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front pumps an anomalously warm, humid airmass into the region. This cold front is associated with a sharpening mid/upper level trough diving into the Great Lakes region. As this cold front blasts into the Northeast during the day on Saturday a strong to severe squall line of thunderstorms will develop in response. The SPC has issued a moderate risk for severe weather across a large swath of the Northeast from central Pennsylvania across to western New England, including most of New York and New Jersey. Lingering showers move offshore with the frontal boundary on Sunday, leaving behind high pressure, fair skies for most and much lower humidity. This area of high pressure will persist throughout much of next week, bringing beautiful late summer/early autumn weather. A weak cold front will attempt to drop south from Canada late in the week with sparse precipitation.
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Short-term
A lovely evening and overnight will greet most Northeast residents this Friday night. Aside from a few widely scattered showers and thunderstorms across the coastal plain, central Pennsylvania and the Lake Ontario region, most areas will see mostly clear skies with temperatures mainly remaining in the 60's across the interior and 70's along the coastal plain. There will be an increase in high clouds after midnight from the west but any precipitation ahead of the cold front should hold off till after sunrise. Winds will be light and from the south.
SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook
The day of action will be Saturday as the aforementioned cold front approaches from the Ohio Valley. Weakening convection from overnight storms currently located over Indiana will move into western New York and Pennsylvania by mid-morning. Areas to the east should start fair with just some high clouds. This will allow for decent diurnal heating before the cold front moves into these areas during the afternoon hours. As the mid/upper support for the storm dives into the Northeast, the trough will begin to swing negative, resulting in a rapidly developing surface low pressure which will ride quickly northeast across the lake plain to the St.Lawrence valley. The southerly flow ahead of the front will increase as well, pumping a tropical airmass into the region. Hence, a rather breezy afternoon will take the edge off the high levels of humidity somewhat. Instability will increase during the day with CAPE's ranging from 500-1,000J/kg ahead of the front, not overly impressive, but combined with approximately 100dm height falls associated with the upper through should be enough of a trigger for the development of storms. Winds aloft @500mb will increase to 50-75kt, yielding about 30-40kts of shear. As storms fire during the early afternoon they should quickly organize into a squall line and push rapidly east at 45-60mph. These storms shouldn't have any trouble tapping into these stronger winds aloft as the strengthening surface low pressure system riding northeast will make for a highly dynamic atmosphere (sustained lift/updrafts). Strong, damaging winds up and down the length of this squall line should be the biggest severe threat on Saturday. In addition to the strong wind threat, there may even be a few tornadoes in supercell thunderstorms which develop out ahead of the main line of storms. This is a low threat due to lacking instability and convergence ahead of the frontal boundary itself but the threat is there. The fast movement of the line of storms should prevent significant flash flooding concerns but with the tropical airmass in place and precipitable water values reaching as high as 2" localized areas of flash flooding may ensue. High temperatures will range from the low to mid 80's along the coastal plain with mostly 70's across the interior. Temperatures should drop into the 60's and upper 50's with the passage of the front.
By the evening hours on Saturday the frontal boundary and its associated squall line should be moving into western New England and southern New Jersey. These storms will be in the process of weakening with the loss of daytime instability and the surface low pressure moving further north into Canada. Despite this weakening trend there will still be strong winds aloft and the potential for convection to mix these winds down to the surface. But any damaging winds won't be nearly as widespread as areas across Pennsylvania and New York receive during the afternoon hours. Total rainfall from these storms should range from a half inch to an inch and a half with higher amounts over two inches in localized spots. Low temperatures will range from the 40's and 50's across the western portion of the region behind the front with 60's and 70's in the humid airmass out ahead of the front.
The front should continue to push offshore during the morning hours on Sunday with any lingering precipitation confined to areas from eastern Massachusetts and Cape Cod to downeast Maine. A refreshing breeze from the northwest around 10mph should usher in a much cooler and drier airmass. A few showers may develop over the higher elevations under the axis of the upper trough and downwind of the Great Lakes but most areas should see plenty of sun. High temperatures will range from the 60's across the interior with 70's along the coastal plain. A few locales across the higher terrain may remain in the 50's.
Winds will die down Sunday night, with clearing skies and a dry airmass overhead ideal radiational cooling conditions will be in place. Temperatures should drop into the 40's across much of the interior with a few lows in the 30's across the higher terrain. This may lead to widely scattered areas of frost across these regions. Along the coast temperatures will be closer to 60°F due to the moderating influence of the ocean.
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Mid-term
High pressure will remain in control throughout the mid-term period, ranging from Monday through Wednesday of next week. Mostly sunny skies and low humidity will make for stunning weather conditions, with daily high temperatures ranging from the mid 60's to mid 70's across the interior with upper 70's to low 80's along the coastal plain. The clear skies and light winds due to high pressure will lead to chilly nights with lows in the upper 30's to upper 40's across the interior with slightly milder temperatures along the coast, in the 60's, as offshore sea-surface temperatures are still rather warm - in the 70's.
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Long-term
The surface high pressure will slowly begin to slide offshore on Thursday with southwesterly flow increasing, helping to bring more humidity and warmer temperatures to the region to close out the week. A weak cold front will drop down into the region from Canada by late on Friday with little precipitation to speak of. This frontal boundary will wash out over the weekend as another area of high pressure drifts into the region by the weekend Highs in the 70's across the interior and 80's along the coastal plain should be common with lows in the 40's and 50's across the interior. Lows will be in the 60's and 70's along the coast.
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Radar: Northeast Region Loop
Radar loop of the Northeast region. Courtesy of Weather Underground.
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Sea-surface temperatures off the Northeast Coast. Courtesy of NOAA.
Reader Comments
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Ironically, I was supposed to be at a meeting in Concord, NH on Monday, but as we're down to one vehicle I decided not to go. Can't remember if I mentioned that my husband's truck caught fire last week on my birthday while we were out choosing Winterberry bushes. It happened as we drove into the third garden center. DH dove in behind the driver's seat, came up with a 15 yr old fire extinguisher, and had that ready before opening the hood. My hero! The good news is that they had the exact bushes we were seeking: 3 Winter Red ladies and one Southern Gentleman. The bad news is the truck was 17 years old and, well, "It's dead, Jim." So the bushes are out back along our new fence, and after looking at new trucks over the weekend, we think we want to try car-sharing for the Winter and buy in the Spring or Summer. It sure made for an exciting birthday, though!
We're all getting deluged today. We've been told to expect 2" of rain. How about you? Is this 93L? We're also under a Wind Advisory, expecting gusts to 50mph. Good day to wear the long raincoat.
http://http://www.hazecam.net/camsite.aspx?site=b urlington
Mesocale discussion 1960
We are under all kinds of issued warnings right now in Sullivan County - high wind, flash flood, severe thunderstorm, and tornado...
so are so good, lot's of rain today and the wind is blowing a lot of the leaves off the trees :(
the leaves are already staring to turn color, mostly yellows with hints of reds here and there.
haven't heard anything from white lake, bethel, smallwood monticello, that area had high winds issued happening about right now.
happy to be home and not on the road. this makes for an icky commute home. hope everyone stays safe and dry...
take care... :)
http://www.burlingtonfreepress.com/article/201209 18/NEWS02/309180023/Wind-causes-power-outages-acro ss-Vermont?odyssey=mod|breaking|text|FRONTPAGE
Mt. Mansfield 77 655 PM 9/18 mesonet
Burlington Intl Arpt 45 650 PM 9/18 ASOS
Underhill 43 456 PM 9/18 mesonet
I live 2 miles from Underhill
I was in Claryville on Sunday and the river was so low it was barely flowing and many parts had not been cleaned up from the flooding last summer. From what I had heard kids from Claryville don't have to go to
school tomorrow.
Sullivan Co really took a pounding today!
Tonight we have a FROST advisory and are very near to the area under a Freeze Warning.
It won't be long now!! :-D
LT ~ I'm so glad you got to see some great sights and still got home safely! Sounds like it was rather exhilerating!
Shovler ~ I call that real dedication to your sport!
overlooked ~ Was your area in need of that much rain?
Where is everyone?
What's happening where you are?
I notice they've dropped the thunderstorm warnings. :-)
Report said:
"Mostly cloudy in the morning, then partly cloudy. High of 63F. Winds from the SSW at 5 to 10 mph."
Another said "10%" chance of showers.
So I waited until it hit 60F and got ready to go out and put the last of the gardens to bed. Looked out and it was pouring rain!
What is wrong with this picture?
I wonder if anyone will stop by next year?????
Check it out:
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comm ent.html?entrynum=2247
Big news from the North Country! Check this out:
Sunday Night
Overcast with a chance of rain in the evening, then partly cloudy with a chance of SNOW and a chance of rain. Low of 32F. Winds from the NNW at 5 to 10 mph shifting to the WSW after midnight. Chance of precipitation 50%.
Whooooo! Time to start the countdown to Winter! :-D
None here on the valley floor yet.
Maybe a new thread would bring us good luck. :-)
This one is scary, especially since we have seen the damage that can be done by "mere" tropical storms several times these last two years.
Now I guess we'll see what a hybrid storm can do.
I'm actually starting a new blog on this storm right now. I really wish I had time to write this blog out last week. I shot a wumail off to Listener on the 20th saying how I needed to write a blog out then. But I just got really busy building crafts for halloween, costumes, etc.
There's so much to go over with this storm so I'm going to take a few hours writing this one out. I want to make sure I'm as thorough as possible due to how dangerous this storm is and a nod to its historical precedence.
We need thy wisdom, o great soul!
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