More flooding rains likely

By: sullivanweather , 10:21 PM GMT on September 03, 2011

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Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings
Current watches, warning and advisories issued by the National Weather Service. Courtesy of NOAA.

Your Northeast Forecast


Synopsis

A rather complicated forecast is shaping up for the Northeast this upcoming week and much will be dependent on the behavior of two tropical systems, Katia in the Atlantic and Lee currently along the Gulf Coast, and their interaction with the mid-latitude flow. Tropical storms aside, our region will have its own issues as a slow-moving cold front taps into some of that deep moisture streaming out from the Gulf ahead of Lee and deposits it onto the region in the form of heavy rain and thunderstorms Sunday through Tuesday. This alone will have the potential to reinitiate flooding given the over-saturated soil and rivers still running quite high. Beyond Tuesday all bets are off as model consensus completely breaks down in their handling of Katia and Lee, especially. Some models merge Lee with the stalled front bringing yet another round of heavy rain for mainly the southern and eastern portions of the region, though a few models manage to bring Lee's remnants as far west as Michigan. Other models loop Lee back into the Gulf where it then meanders and strengthens into a hurricane. While all this uncertainty exists with Lee during the midweek timeframe, Katia will be swinging between Bermuda and the US East Coast. Most models bring the storm completely around the high missing the coast but allow for some indirect effect between itself and a stacked low pressure over the Ohio Valley. Other models build the high to the north of Katia just enough to bring the western half of the storm into at least a portion of the region along the coast by the end of the week into next weekend.



Daily soil-moisture percentiles. Nearly all of New Jersey, eastern Pennsylvania, southeast New York and western New England are at record high soil-moisture content levels. Credit: CPC/NOAA


Unfortunately, this uncertainty in the forecast couldn't have come at a worse time given the ongoing clean-up and reconstruction efforts following Irene. Irene's rains on top of already record to near-record levels of soil-moisture content provided for record flooding and only further bolstered the high soil-moisture contents across the region. With one round of heavy rain virtually guaranteed to occur with the stalling cold front centered on Labor Day and others possible from midweek on, additional flooding is all but sure to occur. Having just experienced a devastating flood, many of the same areas could very well flood again. So if you live in a flood-prone area and are recovering you may need to prepare once again.


Short-term forecast

Warm, muggy, summer-like weather will persist this weekend for the Northeast as a deep-layer southwesterly flow emanating from the scorched Southern Plains advects their hot airmass into the region. Temperatures in the 80's and low 90's are common across the southern two-thirds of the region this Saturday afternoon, with dewpoint temperatures well into the 70's. Further north, more clouds have kept temperatures cooler, mainly in 70's across northern New England. Though warm temperatures aloft have capped much of the surface-based instability a few thunderstorms have managed to pop and will continue to do so into the early evening hours across central Pennsylvania and New York.

A very warm night for Northeast with temperatures remaining in the 70's for much of the southern two-thirds of the region, excluding the higher elevations which will drop into the 60's. With lots of low-level moisture expect areas of locally dense fog to develop overnight. Across the northern third of the region it will be a bit cooler, with lows in the 60's. This region will also stand a chance of being grazed by a MCS moving east-northeast from the Great Lakes region along a warm front draped along the US-Canadian border. A quick inch of rain is possible from this system but most places will see amounts under a half an inch. This batch of showers and thunderstorms will weaken towards daybreak as it moves into Maine.

Sunday begins very warm with any fog quickly burning off. Convective debris from the Great Lakes region may provide for varying levels of mid/high clouds across the region but most places will see filtered sunshine at the least through late morning, helping to warm things up back into the 80's for most places from I-90 south. To the north 80's will be found in the St.Lawrence and Champlain Valleys with 70's elsewhere. The very warm and humid airmass will give rise to afternoon shower and thunderstorms as a pre-frontal trough moves into western Pennsylvania and New York ahead of a cold front across the Great Lakes. Some of these storms have the potential to become severe but the bigger concern will be the expected slow-movement of these thunderstorms along a line. The individual cells will move northeastward rather quickly but training of cells and slow forwards progression of lines of storms may present a problem with flash flooding, especially across northern New York during the day on Sunday. This threat will slowly shift southeastward Sunday night into Monday as the cold front pushes into the region, further aiding in lift. Once again, Vermont and the northern Catskills/Mohawk Valley/southern Adirondacks look to receive the heaviest rainfall from this first event. The rainfall will be convective in nature throughout the event so the biggest threat will be from flash flooding, though larger rivers will once again see significant rises as well. Rainfall of 2-4 inches is possible with much higher amounts possible in areas of training cells. Along the coast any activity is expected to be widely scattered as the heaviest stuff will hold off until Monday night. Highs here on Labor Day will climb into the 80's.


Mid-term forecast


Monday night through Tuesday night the front slowly sags to the coast and stalls. Heavy rainfall and thunderstorms will continue to stream along it with the tropical moisture feed well-established between itself and Lee. Rainfall will average an additional 1-3 inches with higher amounts. These amounts could easily lead to flooding. Further north rain will begin to taper to lighter showers and eventually end by Tuesday. Additional rainfall of a half inch to an inch is possible. Temperatures behind the front will run 15-20 degrees cooler than those out ahead of it.

-------

Tropical Update


Coming soon...



IR Satellite image of Tropical Storm Katia. Credit: SSD/NOAA




IR Satellite image of Tropical Storm Lee. Credit: SSD/NOAA






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Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar
Radar loop of the Northeast region. Courtesy of Weather Underground.


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Local SST's

Northeast SST's
Sea-surface temperatures off the Northeast Coast. Courtesy of NOAA.


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187. libertygirl
8:09 PM GMT on July 26, 2012
I made it back to Liberty, NY :-)...and came to check out Sully's blog. What a drag, no Sully, eh? Hope all is well and good.

Currently, we are under a tornado watch, here in Sullivan County. The radar looks scary. :-/

We've had a couple of thunderstorms the past week, bringing much needed rain. The lakes are low, as well as, creeks and streams; but seem to be running a little quicker today. :)

Lighting strikes seem to make it closer, with the lake nearby. Yikes! Preparing for the weather coming in.

Take care, look forward to seeing a hearty winter full with lot's o' snow, good icepack and of course, all the best well wishes to ya' Sully!
Member Since: December 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 195
186. originalLT
5:20 PM GMT on July 08, 2012
Just got back from an Alaskan trip Sully, being a naturalist/gardener/ meteorology buff, you would really enjoy such a trip. The mountains, the glaciers, the flora and fauna,-- you would really "be in heaven" up there. It is something you must look foreward to doing some time in the future. Please be well, take care, LT.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8010
185. goofyrider
5:00 PM GMT on July 07, 2012
A'cc'er radar for NY/NJ. Shows clusters of moisture streaming SE from the lakes. If this was Jan. we would be talking about "lake effect snows". How about lake effect rains. Looks like Sullivan Co in the path and maybe NYC suburbs to west and north. Afternoon Sull
Member Since: February 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2936
184. listenerVT
5:38 PM GMT on July 06, 2012
Just wanted to pop by and post a note to say I'm thinking of you and missing this blog.

Hope you're keeping cool in all this heat and that your gardens are thriving somehow!


I still come by here often to borrow that very first link! :-)
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5595
183. goofyrider
10:08 AM GMT on June 13, 2012
Morning Sul
Member Since: February 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2936
182. listenerVT
6:57 PM GMT on April 22, 2012
Hi Sully!

I hope you're going to come in for a share of that snow that's coming to parts of PA and NY. That is...as long as it won't mess up your gardening!

It's 39F here with a 10kt wind for my son's non-profit's event. For the Root Center's huge Earth Day event, volunteers from 18 countries have converged to help the Root Center get the crops planted! All the food goes to the local Food Banks and last year also was shared with victims of Irene flooding. At least the rain has held off for the event. http://www.therootcenter.org/
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5595
180. listenerVT
6:10 AM GMT on April 05, 2012
First we had 80's in March.
Now, weeks later, some areas have a freeze warning.

Wow, this surely has been the Season of Opposites!
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5595
179. listenerVT
5:00 AM GMT on March 14, 2012
Want something fun to do?

Pick your favourite weather songs here:
http://www.weather.com/outlook/weather-news/news/ articles/weather-songs-tournament-index_2012-03-07
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5595
178. listenerVT
3:01 AM GMT on February 29, 2012
Quoting partylight:
Well, this has been a long winter with out any snow or this blog. The weather has been a blah anyway but, for all us weather nuts out there, some exciting news, I got my new rain gauge today which reads to a hundredth of an inch. That is going to be exciting.


Congrats on the new rain gauge!

I hope you never have to use it like you did last August 28th!!
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5595
177. partylight
7:29 AM GMT on February 24, 2012
Well, this has been a long winter with out any snow or this blog. The weather has been a blah anyway but, for all us weather nuts out there, some exciting news, I got my new rain gauge today which reads to a hundredth of an inch. That is going to be exciting.
Member Since: December 8, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 110
176. originalLT
6:06 AM GMT on February 19, 2012
I echo Listeners thoughts.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8010
175. listenerVT
6:02 AM GMT on February 19, 2012
Missing you Sully.

Winter without much snow is harsh.
Thinking of you and thinking that Winter without a Sully post is worse.

Say "hi" when you're able. ♥
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5595
174. originalLT
5:32 AM GMT on February 11, 2012
It is "AWESOME!" for Ally. Thanks for the report Listener, and belated "Happy Birthday" to Ally!
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8010
173. listenerVT
4:14 AM GMT on February 11, 2012
Quoting TheShovler3:
Thanks i appreciate it.

Hope Ally is doing well!! Shes been an inspiration to all of us!

Enjoy the normal cold weather from Saturday through Wed. Lastnight was actually a decent hard frost.



Thank-you!
Ally aced ALL her tests and scans in January!
She has now been in remission for TWO YEARS!!
And she turned 5 at the end of January.
Awesome. ♥
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5595
172. TheShovler3
3:34 PM GMT on February 09, 2012
Thanks i appreciate it.

Hope Ally is doing well!! Shes been an inspiration to all of us!

Enjoy the normal cold weather from Saturday through Wed. Lastnight was actually a decent hard frost.

Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2579
171. listenerVT
6:14 AM GMT on February 08, 2012
Quoting NumberWise:
Hi, Shovler! That sure sounds like a lot of work for 7.5 gallons, but it's obviously for a good cause! I hope the weather works in your favor. Keep us posted - many of us are still lurking here.



We sure are! Always alert for a Sully sighting. :-)

Shovler, I am rooting for you and your wedding syrup!!
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5595
170. NumberWise
3:41 PM GMT on February 07, 2012
Hi, Shovler! That sure sounds like a lot of work for 7.5 gallons, but it's obviously for a good cause! I hope the weather works in your favor. Keep us posted - many of us are still lurking here.
Member Since: October 22, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1737
169. TheShovler3
3:18 PM GMT on February 07, 2012
Saturday-Wed look like normal feb days where the lows are in the single digits and it fails to reach freezing. This should kick the trees into gear. I've washed all the buckets taps and replaced tubing. I'm washing the pans on saturday along with the tanks, setting it all back up and i'll be ready to go. I just need to make 7.5 gallons for my wedding favors!when i hit that number i'll rest easier.
Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2579
168. goofyrider
9:01 AM GMT on February 02, 2012
49.6N, 11.8E

Don't know if they have maples here, but the temps will work. Last four nights have been in the teens and last night went down to 6 F.
Member Since: February 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2936
167. TheShovler3
4:15 PM GMT on January 31, 2012
Likewise i miss them too its just not the same without 1. sully or 2. a normal winter.

As for syrup, if the frost doesn't drop quick there will be nothing to stop the trees from jumping into an early budding. Frost usually controls the roots, trees start to bud after frost has dissipated and new growth begins. Once trees bud its over for maple syrup.

Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2579
166. goofyrider
8:22 PM GMT on January 28, 2012
@ 164

Suspect you are right. Thought where you are frost might have settled. FEB will be tough to get a deep freeze. Little rain followed by a few hard freezes may help. Think you might see at least that.
Member Since: February 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2936
165. listenerVT
4:18 AM GMT on January 27, 2012
Hiya Shovler!

I'm sad for you, and all of us, about the maple syrup! There are so many far-reaching effects of a too warm winter.

Chief among them may be that we don't have as much to tempt Sully to pop by to say hallo or offer a forecast.

Thanks for coming by with a bit of news! I miss all our rambles here.

Thinking of you, Sully. Please say hi when you can. Do you know, I come by here frequently because at the top of your blog you have the "Current watches, warnings and advisories" map and it's clickable!! :-)
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5595
164. TheShovler3
4:51 PM GMT on January 25, 2012
Hey everyone just letting everyone know i'm still lurking hope everyones doing well

Were at about 27" for the year 21 coming in october and an inch inbetween last weekend which was about 5" Had snow cover only for a total of 5 days this year including october. Yesterday the 24th was 56 degrees.

My hopes for maple syrup this year are dismal to say the least. Frost hasn't even made it and inch into the ground :(
Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2579
163. goofyrider
9:27 AM GMT on January 24, 2012
Morn Sull: how's it going.
49.6N, 11.8E

Had more snow here in the last 10 days then I have seen all year on the Shore. But by tonight it will melt away again.

See ya when we see ya

Member Since: February 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2936
162. listenerVT
4:25 AM GMT on January 12, 2012
We're gonna get some snow!!

I hope you come in for some too, Sully.
Thinking of you. Please say 'hi' sometime.

Maybe just pop by and post your snow total?
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5595
161. listenerVT
2:48 AM GMT on January 07, 2012
Hey, Sully! Look who came through with CLEAR SCANS today! :-)

Hope you're having a better 2012 than 2011. Thinking of you.
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5595
160. listenerVT
1:17 AM GMT on January 03, 2012
Thinking of you, Sully...

I'd love to hear from you...just a wee note to say you're more or less okay.
Hoping you have a sabbath new year.
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5595
159. listenerVT
9:57 PM GMT on December 28, 2011
Christmas Greetings of Snow!

It doesn't look like much on the radar right now, but we're getting hammered with snow here. I know everyone is envious of snow, and I'm glad to have some, but I sure wish it hadn't begun with a thick layer of ice, when we're expecting 0 or below tonight, before you factor in the 30mph wind gusts! Brrrr! I'll feel better about it when all my loved ones are safely home tonight. The last to arrive home will be my husband, and tonight is the 39th anniversary of our engagement!

Meanwhile, Sully, Ally is doing great and our niece who had leukemia in high school and had a bone marrow transplant for that, 15 years ago, gave birth on Christmas Eve morning to an adorable little girl! :-)

You just never know what's around the next bend in the road. May yours be snow and inner peace, and a sabbath new year. Say Hi when you can. Miss you.
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5595
158. goofyrider
12:20 AM GMT on December 28, 2011

Belated Merry Christmas Sull
Member Since: February 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2936
157. originalLT
6:10 PM GMT on December 24, 2011
Merry Christmas to you and your family Sully, and I hope for you all a happy and HEALTHY New Year. LT (And for at least one good "snow storm"!)
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8010
156. Zachary Labe
5:11 PM GMT on December 24, 2011
sullivanweather- Merry Christmas! I hope all is well!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
155. listenerVT
5:53 PM GMT on December 02, 2011
Missing you all the more, Sully, since I now have

* Snowflakes! *

coming down!!!!

May this day bring you some really great interior peace.
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5595
154. listenerVT
5:51 PM GMT on December 02, 2011
Quoting originalLT:
Hi Listener, hope you and your family had a wonderful and safe Thanksgiving. Also thanks for the new Ally post. Also, in your post # 152, what does HAPPY%u2665 Thanksgiving, Sully mean?


It means I modified the post after posting!! The system doesn't translate cute heart or star characters twice. It was either a heart or a star. Not profanity! LOL! I hope Sully knew that. :-)
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5595
153. originalLT
5:24 AM GMT on November 25, 2011
Hi Listener, hope you and your family had a wonderful and safe Thanksgiving. Also thanks for the new Ally post. Also, in your post # 152, what does HAPPY%u2665 Thanksgiving, Sully mean?
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8010
152. listenerVT
4:22 AM GMT on November 25, 2011
H A P P Y * T H A N K S G I V I N G, S U L L Y !!!

We didn't get the day of sunshine we were promised by the locals. It was cold, cloudy and spit rain and snow. We still only got a dusting of snow here (Jericho, VT), while one of our guests got 6" of snow! (East Fairfield, VT)

But it turns out that a meal cooked by 8 different family chefs can work and taste great! Amazing!

I hope you and Kate have had a delicious Thanksgiving. Still holding you in the Light.

P.S.: There's a new Ally update over at Crowe's.
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5595
151. listenerVT
2:49 AM GMT on November 22, 2011
Quoting partylight:
8" to 12" the NWS is saying for southern VT with the most in the higher elevations. Good for the ski areas, bad for me not getting my snow tires on yet but then again, it's going to be wet yuck that stinks to drive on anyway.


Thanks, partylight. Yeah, I just saw that!
http://www.wunderground.com/US/VT/017.html#WIN


Hmmm. Maybe my family should drive over on Thursday morning instead.
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5595
150. partylight
1:32 AM GMT on November 22, 2011
Snowfall Probability Forecasts day 2

Member Since: December 8, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 110
149. partylight
1:28 AM GMT on November 22, 2011
8" to 12" the NWS is saying for southern VT with the most in the higher elevations. Good for the ski areas, bad for me not getting my snow tires on yet but then again, it's going to be wet yuck that stinks to drive on anyway.
Member Since: December 8, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 110
148. listenerVT
1:46 PM GMT on November 19, 2011
Snow expected on the day before Thanksgiving when the family is supposed to travel from Maine to Vermont.

How much will be falling and where?
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5595
147. listenerVT
2:12 AM GMT on November 10, 2011
Hey Sully, if you're still popping by (and I hope you are), check this out:

... Record high temperature set at Mount Mansfield VT...

A record high temperature of 58 degrees was set at Mount Mansfield
VT today. This breaks the old record of 54 degrees set in 1996.


I saw 68 on the car thermometer today, while in South Burlington, VT

It's still 58 here in Jericho at the base of Mount Mansfield, at 9pm. The moon was so bright I walked home from dropping off my car to get its snow sneakers put on. Then I'll be ready for the shift back to cold.


Enjoy the warm night on the road!
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5595
146. listenerVT
7:13 PM GMT on November 05, 2011
When I left for work this morning it was sunny and 25 degrees. Every blade of grass was heavily frosted and crunched when walked on. A guy came into the Library saying he was hoping to finish building a porch, but it was so cold his ladders were iced! It only got up to about 43 this afternoon, but it's so sunny it's a gorgeous day.
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5595
145. listenerVT
7:11 PM GMT on November 05, 2011
Quoting NEwxguy:
Listener,just read the update on Blizz's blog,such a great story and so happy to hear she is doing better.
My wife has been through cancer treatment 3 times over the years and it was horrible,and what Ally is going through is so much worse,what a girl.


Ohhhh, NEwxguy, I hadn't realised your wife's been through it three times. That sure is rough. I'm sure you are a very supportive spouse. May she be healthy and never have to go through it again. ♥

We also have a niece who was diagnosed with leukemia in high school, had a bone marrow transplant thanks to a perfect match sibling, and lives today. She got married about 8 years ago and is expecting her first child in January! After a bone marrow transplant a person cannot conceive, but her older sister (who has 4 children) donated the egg. It's pretty amazing.
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5595
144. NEwxguy
7:05 PM GMT on November 04, 2011
Listener,just read the update on Blizz's blog,such a great story and so happy to hear she is doing better.
My wife has been through cancer treatment 3 times over the years and it was horrible,and what Ally is going through is so much worse,what a girl.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 888 Comments: 15988
143. listenerVT
6:40 PM GMT on November 04, 2011
Crowe and Blizz have asked me to continue to post Ally updates at their blogs. I have not yet heard from Sully. So, if you are interested in how Ally is faring, see Crowe1's blog or Blizzard92's. Thanks.
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5595
142. TheShovler3
10:52 PM GMT on November 02, 2011
A lot melted but still have a bit depending on where you are in terms of shade, my magnolia tree had to come down house is fine power came back on after 3 days. My parents have much more extensive tree damage as they had more oaks on their property!
Glad to hear ally's doing better
Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2579
141. listenerVT
7:07 PM GMT on November 02, 2011
Ally had an even better day! Update in the usual place.

I'm waiting to hear whether Sully still wants me to post Ally updates here. One blogger has asked me not to and I want to be sensitive to what folks want. Of course, it's Sully's blog.

Until I hear, please just check over at Crowe's for updates. Thanks.
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5595
140. listenerVT
7:05 PM GMT on November 02, 2011
Quoting TheShovler3:
Haven't gotten a chance to put the photos in the blog but theyre in my photos! check em out


They're amazing!

Has it melted off now, and what became of your downed tree? How's the house?
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5595
139. TheShovler3
2:38 AM GMT on November 02, 2011
Haven't gotten a chance to put the photos in the blog but theyre in my photos! check em out
Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2579
138. listenerVT
12:50 AM GMT on November 02, 2011
Ally had a better day! Update at Crowe's blog...


http://www.wunderground.com/blog/crowe1/comment.h tml?entrynum=15#commenttop
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137. listenerVT
6:32 PM GMT on October 31, 2011
Scary Ally update at Crowe's blog
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5595

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Thomas is an avid weather enthusiast, landscaper and organic gardener. This blog is dedicated to Northeast and tropical weather forecasting. Enjoy!

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