More flooding rains likely
Current watches, warnings and advisories.
Current watches, warning and advisories issued by the National Weather Service. Courtesy of NOAA.
Your Northeast Forecast
Synopsis
A rather complicated forecast is shaping up for the Northeast this upcoming week and much will be dependent on the behavior of two tropical systems, Katia in the Atlantic and Lee currently along the Gulf Coast, and their interaction with the mid-latitude flow. Tropical storms aside, our region will have its own issues as a slow-moving cold front taps into some of that deep moisture streaming out from the Gulf ahead of Lee and deposits it onto the region in the form of heavy rain and thunderstorms Sunday through Tuesday. This alone will have the potential to reinitiate flooding given the over-saturated soil and rivers still running quite high. Beyond Tuesday all bets are off as model consensus completely breaks down in their handling of Katia and Lee, especially. Some models merge Lee with the stalled front bringing yet another round of heavy rain for mainly the southern and eastern portions of the region, though a few models manage to bring Lee's remnants as far west as Michigan. Other models loop Lee back into the Gulf where it then meanders and strengthens into a hurricane. While all this uncertainty exists with Lee during the midweek timeframe, Katia will be swinging between Bermuda and the US East Coast. Most models bring the storm completely around the high missing the coast but allow for some indirect effect between itself and a stacked low pressure over the Ohio Valley. Other models build the high to the north of Katia just enough to bring the western half of the storm into at least a portion of the region along the coast by the end of the week into next weekend.
Daily soil-moisture percentiles. Nearly all of New Jersey, eastern Pennsylvania, southeast New York and western New England are at record high soil-moisture content levels. Credit: CPC/NOAA
Unfortunately, this uncertainty in the forecast couldn't have come at a worse time given the ongoing clean-up and reconstruction efforts following Irene. Irene's rains on top of already record to near-record levels of soil-moisture content provided for record flooding and only further bolstered the high soil-moisture contents across the region. With one round of heavy rain virtually guaranteed to occur with the stalling cold front centered on Labor Day and others possible from midweek on, additional flooding is all but sure to occur. Having just experienced a devastating flood, many of the same areas could very well flood again. So if you live in a flood-prone area and are recovering you may need to prepare once again.
Short-term forecast
Warm, muggy, summer-like weather will persist this weekend for the Northeast as a deep-layer southwesterly flow emanating from the scorched Southern Plains advects their hot airmass into the region. Temperatures in the 80's and low 90's are common across the southern two-thirds of the region this Saturday afternoon, with dewpoint temperatures well into the 70's. Further north, more clouds have kept temperatures cooler, mainly in 70's across northern New England. Though warm temperatures aloft have capped much of the surface-based instability a few thunderstorms have managed to pop and will continue to do so into the early evening hours across central Pennsylvania and New York.
A very warm night for Northeast with temperatures remaining in the 70's for much of the southern two-thirds of the region, excluding the higher elevations which will drop into the 60's. With lots of low-level moisture expect areas of locally dense fog to develop overnight. Across the northern third of the region it will be a bit cooler, with lows in the 60's. This region will also stand a chance of being grazed by a MCS moving east-northeast from the Great Lakes region along a warm front draped along the US-Canadian border. A quick inch of rain is possible from this system but most places will see amounts under a half an inch. This batch of showers and thunderstorms will weaken towards daybreak as it moves into Maine.
Sunday begins very warm with any fog quickly burning off. Convective debris from the Great Lakes region may provide for varying levels of mid/high clouds across the region but most places will see filtered sunshine at the least through late morning, helping to warm things up back into the 80's for most places from I-90 south. To the north 80's will be found in the St.Lawrence and Champlain Valleys with 70's elsewhere. The very warm and humid airmass will give rise to afternoon shower and thunderstorms as a pre-frontal trough moves into western Pennsylvania and New York ahead of a cold front across the Great Lakes. Some of these storms have the potential to become severe but the bigger concern will be the expected slow-movement of these thunderstorms along a line. The individual cells will move northeastward rather quickly but training of cells and slow forwards progression of lines of storms may present a problem with flash flooding, especially across northern New York during the day on Sunday. This threat will slowly shift southeastward Sunday night into Monday as the cold front pushes into the region, further aiding in lift. Once again, Vermont and the northern Catskills/Mohawk Valley/southern Adirondacks look to receive the heaviest rainfall from this first event. The rainfall will be convective in nature throughout the event so the biggest threat will be from flash flooding, though larger rivers will once again see significant rises as well. Rainfall of 2-4 inches is possible with much higher amounts possible in areas of training cells. Along the coast any activity is expected to be widely scattered as the heaviest stuff will hold off until Monday night. Highs here on Labor Day will climb into the 80's.
Mid-term forecast
Monday night through Tuesday night the front slowly sags to the coast and stalls. Heavy rainfall and thunderstorms will continue to stream along it with the tropical moisture feed well-established between itself and Lee. Rainfall will average an additional 1-3 inches with higher amounts. These amounts could easily lead to flooding. Further north rain will begin to taper to lighter showers and eventually end by Tuesday. Additional rainfall of a half inch to an inch is possible. Temperatures behind the front will run 15-20 degrees cooler than those out ahead of it.
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Tropical Update
Coming soon...
IR Satellite image of Tropical Storm Katia. Credit: SSD/NOAA
IR Satellite image of Tropical Storm Lee. Credit: SSD/NOAA
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Radar: Northeast Region Loop
Radar loop of the Northeast region. Courtesy of Weather Underground.
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Local SST's
Sea-surface temperatures off the Northeast Coast. Courtesy of NOAA.
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Reader Comments
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Thanks, partylight. Yeah, I just saw that!
http://www.wunderground.com/US/VT/017.html#WIN
Hmmm. Maybe my family should drive over on Thursday morning instead.
We didn't get the day of sunshine we were promised by the locals. It was cold, cloudy and spit rain and snow. We still only got a dusting of snow here (Jericho, VT), while one of our guests got 6" of snow! (East Fairfield, VT)
But it turns out that a meal cooked by 8 different family chefs can work and taste great! Amazing!
I hope you and Kate have had a delicious Thanksgiving. Still holding you in the Light.
P.S.: There's a new Ally update over at Crowe's.
It means I modified the post after posting!! The system doesn't translate cute heart or star characters twice. It was either a heart or a star. Not profanity! LOL! I hope Sully knew that. :-)
* Snowflakes! *
coming down!!!!
May this day bring you some really great interior peace.
Belated Merry Christmas Sull
It doesn't look like much on the radar right now, but we're getting hammered with snow here. I know everyone is envious of snow, and I'm glad to have some, but I sure wish it hadn't begun with a thick layer of ice, when we're expecting 0 or below tonight, before you factor in the 30mph wind gusts! Brrrr! I'll feel better about it when all my loved ones are safely home tonight. The last to arrive home will be my husband, and tonight is the 39th anniversary of our engagement!
Meanwhile, Sully, Ally is doing great and our niece who had leukemia in high school and had a bone marrow transplant for that, 15 years ago, gave birth on Christmas Eve morning to an adorable little girl! :-)
You just never know what's around the next bend in the road. May yours be snow and inner peace, and a sabbath new year. Say Hi when you can. Miss you.
I'd love to hear from you...just a wee note to say you're more or less okay.
Hoping you have a sabbath new year.
Hope you're having a better 2012 than 2011. Thinking of you.
I hope you come in for some too, Sully.
Thinking of you. Please say 'hi' sometime.
Maybe just pop by and post your snow total?
49.6N, 11.8E
Had more snow here in the last 10 days then I have seen all year on the Shore. But by tonight it will melt away again.
See ya when we see ya
Were at about 27" for the year 21 coming in october and an inch inbetween last weekend which was about 5" Had snow cover only for a total of 5 days this year including october. Yesterday the 24th was 56 degrees.
My hopes for maple syrup this year are dismal to say the least. Frost hasn't even made it and inch into the ground :(
I'm sad for you, and all of us, about the maple syrup! There are so many far-reaching effects of a too warm winter.
Chief among them may be that we don't have as much to tempt Sully to pop by to say hallo or offer a forecast.
Thanks for coming by with a bit of news! I miss all our rambles here.
Thinking of you, Sully. Please say hi when you can. Do you know, I come by here frequently because at the top of your blog you have the "Current watches, warnings and advisories" map and it's clickable!! :-)
Suspect you are right. Thought where you are frost might have settled. FEB will be tough to get a deep freeze. Little rain followed by a few hard freezes may help. Think you might see at least that.
As for syrup, if the frost doesn't drop quick there will be nothing to stop the trees from jumping into an early budding. Frost usually controls the roots, trees start to bud after frost has dissipated and new growth begins. Once trees bud its over for maple syrup.
Don't know if they have maples here, but the temps will work. Last four nights have been in the teens and last night went down to 6 F.
We sure are! Always alert for a Sully sighting. :-)
Shovler, I am rooting for you and your wedding syrup!!
Hope Ally is doing well!! Shes been an inspiration to all of us!
Enjoy the normal cold weather from Saturday through Wed. Lastnight was actually a decent hard frost.
Thank-you!
Ally aced ALL her tests and scans in January!
She has now been in remission for TWO YEARS!!
And she turned 5 at the end of January.
Awesome. ♥
Winter without much snow is harsh.
Thinking of you and thinking that Winter without a Sully post is worse.
Say "hi" when you're able. ♥
Congrats on the new rain gauge!
I hope you never have to use it like you did last August 28th!!
Pick your favourite weather songs here:
http://www.weather.com/outlook/weather-news/news/ articles/weather-songs-tournament-index_2012-03-07
Now, weeks later, some areas have a freeze warning.
Wow, this surely has been the Season of Opposites!
I hope you're going to come in for a share of that snow that's coming to parts of PA and NY. That is...as long as it won't mess up your gardening!
It's 39F here with a 10kt wind for my son's non-profit's event. For the Root Center's huge Earth Day event, volunteers from 18 countries have converged to help the Root Center get the crops planted! All the food goes to the local Food Banks and last year also was shared with victims of Irene flooding. At least the rain has held off for the event. http://www.therootcenter.org/
Hope you're keeping cool in all this heat and that your gardens are thriving somehow!
I still come by here often to borrow that very first link! :-)
Currently, we are under a tornado watch, here in Sullivan County. The radar looks scary. :-/
We've had a couple of thunderstorms the past week, bringing much needed rain. The lakes are low, as well as, creeks and streams; but seem to be running a little quicker today. :)
Lighting strikes seem to make it closer, with the lake nearby. Yikes! Preparing for the weather coming in.
Take care, look forward to seeing a hearty winter full with lot's o' snow, good icepack and of course, all the best well wishes to ya' Sully!
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