Northeast prepares for Irene

By: sullivanweather , 2:52 PM GMT on August 24, 2011

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Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings
Current watches, warning and advisories issued by the National Weather Service. Courtesy of NOAA.

Your Northeast Forecast

Synopsis


The Northeast region will be treated to stunning late-summer weather this Wednesday (hopefully no earthquakes) before a cold front delivers another round of strong to severe thunderstorms on Thursday. A nearly undetectable short-wave ridge will provide enough subsidence for a pleasant Friday, which should be taken as a day of preparation for the arrival of Irene for residents within 150 miles of the coast. By Friday night Irene will be bearing down on the Outer Banks of North Carolina from Atlantic Beach to Cape Hatteras, headed north or north-northeast toward our region. Well out ahead of Irene will be a predecessor rain event (PRE) across a portion of the Northeast, from eastern Pennsylvania to southern New England, while most everywhere else escapes any precipitation. This weekend Irene begins to accelerate up the coast with gradually deteriorating conditions throughout the day Saturday for areas along the coastal plain and hurricane conditions possible by Saturday night and Sunday from Delaware to Maine. Heavy rain and flooding, damaging winds, and storm surge and beach erosion are all expected to accompany Irene, which stands a good possibility of becoming the first landfalling hurricane in the Northeast in 20 years. Following the storm, an area of high pressure nosing down from Canada will provide several days of cool, dry weather to allow for clean-up to commence.


Short-term forecast


A stunning day across much of the Northeast today so get out and enjoy it. Mostly sunny skies for most areas east of the Appalachians, though there will be some passing high cloudiness. Further west, cloud coverage will be a bit more widespread and some scattered showers or thunderstorms are possible in these areas by mid to late afternoon ahead of a cold front pushing towards the region. Temperatures will run a few degrees above normal and humidity levels will rise as the day progresses thanks to a breezy southwesterly return flow around a departing offshore high pressure. As this high gives way to the cold front moving in from the Great Lakes region, cloudiness will continue to increase into the evening and overnight hours. Showers and thunderstorms will become more numerous across the west and push into central Pennsylvania and the Finger Lakes region by daybreak. The increasing cloud cover and humidity will keep temperatures quite mild tonight, with 70's expected along the coastal plain and 60's across the interior.

Yet another round of heavy rain and severe weather is expected on Thursday From eastern New York and Pennsylvania to western New Englan, pushing across the remainder of New England Thursday night. Although my previous forecast had indicated there would be a lack of instability due to cloud cover on Thursday it now appears that enough sun will break through during the morning hours to adequately destabilize the warm, humid airmass ahead of the front before it sweeps through. CAPE's reach up to 1,500J/kg along the coastal plain with 500-1,000J/kg across the interior. Primary severe threats will be large hail up to 1.5" in diameter and strong thunderstorm winds via wet microburst. Heavy rains will also be a concern. Precipitable water values reach up to 2" out ahead of the front, which will be in the process of stalling as it aligns to the upper-level flow. This will make for training and/or slow-progressing thunderstorms capable of flash flooding, especially in rain-soaked regions from New Jersey to southern New England. Likelihood of such storms will increase towards evening as the front slows. Most of the activity will slide offshore a little after midnight. Highs on Thursday will be in the upper 60's across the higher terrain with low 70's to near 80°F expected across the remainder of the North Country and back towards the Great Lakes region. Further south highs will range from the upper 70's to mid 80's. Lows will remain elevated Thursday night along the coast with cloud cover hanging around. Expect upper 60's to low 70's here with upper 50's to mid 60's over the interior.

Friday will be a day of contrast across the Northeast as the coastal plain sees a rather warm, muggy day in the vicinity of the washed-out front with filtered sunshine and temperatures in the 80's. Further north the airmass will be cooler and drier with more abundant sunshine and temperatures in the upper 60's to mid 70's. The canopy of high clouds from Hurricane Irene will quickly spread from south to north starting early afternoon across New Jersey and reaching the Capitol District of Albany by dusk.



Mid-term forecast


The first effects of Irene will begin to be felt by Friday night across New Jersey and southeastern Pennsylvania as moisture streaming up the coast ahead of the storm reaches the old washed-out front still hanging around. This will cause heavy showers and thundershowers to develop and become more widespread as a predecessor rainfall event develops. Predecessor rainfall events (Pre-event) are quite a common occurrence in recurving tropical systems. Pre-events are notorious for having very localized areas of 4-6" of rainfall and this one should be no different. A combination of a rich tropical moisture transport, jet dynamics, positive vorticity and a pre-existing trough will lead to yet another round of heavy rains over areas that have been repeatedly hit this month and are about to get their heaviest rain yet when Irene arrives. To the north and west Irene's shield of clouds will gradually envelope the entire region, lowering and thickening during the overnight. As the flow turns back onshore humidity will rise and the air will begin to acquire the smell of the ocean as saltine air rides inland. Lows will be several degrees above normal with the increasingly muggy conditions.


As the weekend begins the pre-event will be tracking northward into New York and southern/western New England as Hurricane Irene, either after making landfall over the Outer Banks of North Carolina or just brushing them by, tracks toward Long Island. The outer rainbands of the hurricane itself will begin to impact southern New Jersey by mid-afternoon so all preparations and/or evacuations should take place by Saturday morning at the very latest for areas along the Jersey Shore. Elsewhere it will be mostly cloudy and muggy with high temperatures in the 70's region-wide.

The real show begins Saturday night as Irene moves from a position just offshore the Tidewater region of the lower Mid-Atlantic during the evening to about 40 miles east of Cape May, New Jersey by midnight and 25 miles south of central Long Island by daybreak Sunday. Hurricane conditions can be expected along the Jersey Shore for a 4-6 hour period during Irene's closest approach with tropical storm conditions as far west as eastern Pennsylvania and across nearly all of interior New Jersey up to New York City. In Long Island conditions will steadily deteriorate as the night progresses with tropical storm conditions likely by midnight and hurricane conditions likely by early Sunday morning. Across Long Island Sound into southern New England the first outer bands should be felt by midnight with tropical storm conditions likely by morning. The further one lives away from the coast the less likely it is they will see much from Irene. This appears to be a hard-hitter for those within 100-125 miles of the coast but west of here Irene will be a cloudstorm. During the day on Sunday Irene continues to accelerate to the north-northeast, crossing southern New England and finally into Maine by late in the evening. Irene is likely to be downgraded to a tropical storm sometime either late Sunday afternoon or Sunday evening over New England but will still remain quite a storm for the North Country of New Hampshire and the North Woods of Maine.

Irene's impacts will be felt greatest along the coast and will be detailed further in a future blog as the exact track gets nailed down. Generally, expect a 6-10' storm surge to the east of where the center comes ashore with a 2-5' storm up the Jersey Shore, across Long Island Sound and west of where the center comes ashore, presumably, in Long Island. Rainfall will be quite intense with 3-8" along the track of the cyclone, heaviest in a band just to the northwest of the center. Sustained hurricane force winds along the coast from New Jersey to Cape Cod are a good bet and may occur inland of the coast to the east of the center's landfall (southeastern southern New England). To the west of the storm's track up to 75 miles tropical storm conditions are a good bet as well, with possible gusts to hurricane force with 25 miles of the center. The strength of this wind on loaded trees, rooted in already saturated ground is a recipe for many fallen trees and power outages. There's a good chance this storm will rival any other before it in the number of customers who lose power due to the high population density of the region this storm is hitting and the antecedent conditions.



Long-range Outlook


High pressure builds down from Canada behind Irene bringing a taste of fall to the Northeast with crisp nights and dry, sunny afternoons both Monday and Tuesday. A little bit of moisture sneaking into the region next Wednesday may spark off a few scattered showers and thunderstorms across the southern half of the region but most areas will remain precipitation-free. Temperatures will average 4-7 degrees below seasonal averages.

-------

Tropical Update


Coming soon...



IR Satellite image of Hurricane Irene.



Track forecast for Hurricane Irene







Intensity forecast for Irene







Wind impact equivalent from Irene








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Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar
Radar loop of the Northeast region. Courtesy of Weather Underground.


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Local SST's

Northeast SST's
Sea-surface temperatures off the Northeast Coast. Courtesy of NOAA.


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54. Bayview
3:17 PM GMT on August 25, 2011
Another day of preparation for me and a big "you are welcome" to Sully, regarding my comments yesterday to you. See...libertygirl and Kaaterskillfalls feel like me about your forecasting and presentation. Today's storm scenario, precip chart and advice is much appreciated. listenerVT...thank you for your well wishes and I hope you and your family are OK also. We are all gonna get wet...I just don't want to float! JerseyShoreGirl..what you get, I get also. I'm on Cedar Run creek at the mouth of the Bay, across from LBI (Brant Beach). I used to tease my husband about becoming "ocean front" if a hurricane ever swamped the island. Now I am very sorry I ever said that and want to take it back! Here is an awesome webcam on Beach Haven, LBI. Can watch the Atlantic ocean as long as we have power. http://thesurfersview.com/index.php?option=com_con tent&view=article&id=50&Itemid=54
and thanks to listenerVT for your webcams last night.
The Brigantine one shows Atlantic City's casinos, and I am hoping they look the same after Irene. I gotta run...toys have to come out of the water now! Good luck and God Bless All in Irene's path.
Member Since: January 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4
53. sullivanweather
2:59 PM GMT on August 25, 2011
2,500-word forecast discussion en route.



Tropical discussion this afternoon.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
52. sullivanweather
2:53 PM GMT on August 25, 2011
Quoting JerseyShoreGirl:


Yes, I am just under 10ft elevation. The last few Nor'easterns have completely washed away the natural protection. It is not looking good for this area as we have the ocean, bay, 4 lagoons on my east side, wetlands on my south side, and a creek on my north side.

Thank you very much for the update. Today I will be getting my survival kits together... batteries, fresh water, medication, food, food for my pets. I will likely send my children and pets to my mothers up inland to Bricktown-- I have a bedroom window that cracked (daughter hit it with a toy) so I will have to get that fixed ASAP.

Good Luck to you all!



The best of luck to you. It's right for you to be taking this storm seriously. It's gonna surprise a lot of people.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
51. JerseyShoreGirl
2:03 PM GMT on August 25, 2011
Quoting sullivanweather:


The surge into the bays could easily reach 3-5' above normal tide. In some of the nooks and crannies of the bays maybe even higher. The winds will get to tropical storm force by early morning and ramp up to a solid 55-70mph by noon, with gusts over hurricane force. The worst looks to be from 10am till 4pm so make sure you're in a safe place during that time. If you're elevation is less than 10' and you're within a 1/4 mile of the water I would suggest taking refuge somewhere else.


Yes, I am just under 10ft elevation. The last few Nor'easterns have completely washed away the natural protection. It is not looking good for this area as we have the ocean, bay, 4 lagoons on my east side, wetlands on my south side, and a creek on my north side.

Thank you very much for the update. Today I will be getting my survival kits together... batteries, fresh water, medication, food, food for my pets. I will likely send my children and pets to my mothers up inland to Bricktown-- I have a bedroom window that cracked (daughter hit it with a toy) so I will have to get that fixed ASAP.

Good Luck to you all!
Member Since: February 25, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 22
50. libertygirl
1:35 PM GMT on August 25, 2011
Sully - you are the best of the best in forecasting!!You should be earning a living for all that you do. How ironic, I first found your blogs when I lived up in Liberty - needing info on N'Estrs. And now I'm back in KW - and you're blogging about Irene hitting NE. I'd rather be looking at a N'Ester any day than a Hurricane. Don't mind CAT 1 or 2...but any CAT in NE is bad news. Irene is HUGE! Epic storm. Historical.

Are there shelters up there for this kind of event? It is really worrisome - as the landscape is not TROPICAL, not conducive to CAT2/3 canes. Neither are the buildings. EVACUATE is the only option for folks on the coast. And as I have learned, the hard way, you don't WAIT UNTIL NHC ORDERS EVAC! If you are planning on evacuating - you better do it by Friday. Period. Or you are looking at a bigger nightmare of being caught up in the masses.
Good luck and God Bless. I'll be lurking...in thoughts and prayers all of you. Peace.
Member Since: December 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 195
49. sullivanweather
11:31 AM GMT on August 25, 2011


Latest GFS total precip chart.

6-10"+ totals along and to the west of the track of Irene as she comes up the coast. This would bring epic flooding.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
48. sullivanweather
11:15 AM GMT on August 25, 2011
Quoting JerseyShoreGirl:
I am in the Barnegat, NJ area. I live on the Bay-- the mouth of the Inlet. I have been reading and watching, but I have not heard much about the Jersey Coastline. Anyone have any guess as to what I can expect here? Surge? Winds?

Thank you in advance!


The surge into the bays could easily reach 3-5' above normal tide. In some of the nooks and crannies of the bays maybe even higher. The winds will get to tropical storm force by early morning and ramp up to a solid 55-70mph by noon, with gusts over hurricane force. The worst looks to be from 10am till 4pm so make sure you're in a safe place during that time. If you're elevation is less than 10' and you're within a 1/4 mile of the water I would suggest taking refuge somewhere else.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
47. sullivanweather
11:09 AM GMT on August 25, 2011
Quoting kaaterskillfalls:
Sully - I'm up in Rhinebeck area. This weekend is the Dutchess County Fair. The fair actually runs all week - so we'll have severe weather tomorrow perhaps and then maybe a hurricane over the weekend. Wow - what timing :)

Think we'll get enough of a punch up here to make us sit up and take notice ?

BTW your forecasts and discussions are the most interesting of any weather related info I've come across on the web. Tough to explain really but your presentation is very readable and informative but also very technical without being too much to handle. It's just right for both the layperson or very technically oriented - a very rare accomplishment indeed - nice job !


Thank you so much! Even my friends and family tell me this when I explain the weather to them. Maybe I'll have a future career as a politician?? lol j/k

Yeah. We're all gonna feel this one in the Hudson Valley. Newer model guidance is suggesting a 4-6 hour window during the day on Sunday of solid tropical storm conditions, especially as the storm passes to the east and that north wind funnels down the Hudson River. It will truly be a spectacle.

It'll start out innocent enough, breezy with a steady rain breaking out as the sun rises. But it'll gradually pick up in intensity towards noon and by mid-afternoon it'll really be blowing out there. Nearly 1"/hr rainfall rates 25-30mph northeast wind shifting to the north at 35-45 gusting to 60. Especially west facing slopes of the Taconics. Could see a few hurricane force gusts there. Anywhere over 2,000' within 150 miles of the circulation center stands a really good chance at seeing hurricane force wind gusts. There will be power outages. Gonna take a lot of people by surprise.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
46. sullivanweather
11:01 AM GMT on August 25, 2011
Quoting NJLuLu:
Well this is getting super serious. I have a planned Fundraiser inside/outside this Saturday for a cancer victim 39 N 74 W. Lots of prep and clean up. Praying a big turn out to sea.... Any Chance?



Luckily, on Saturday the storm will still be down Caorlinaway. The first bands won't reach Jersey until evening at the earliest but during the day there might be some isolated slow-moving torrential downpours as the tropical moisture feed out ahead of Irene links up with the remnants of the washed out front just inland of the coast.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
45. sullivanweather
10:57 AM GMT on August 25, 2011
Quoting listenerVT:
I just did the math (here: http://go.grolier.com/atlas?op=gd&tn=/atlas/g loba ldist.html )
and learned that I am 136 miles from the NH coast, as the crow flies. That means I'll be about 100 miles from Irene as she passes through NH. So I'll see TS force up here in NW VT, won't I?

Or will I? After all, I'm to the west. What's your take on it, Sully? Gusts as high as..??



Sorry I didn't get to this last night. I made that one last post and then the landlord stopped by with new gaskets for the fridge and I never made it back.

Given this new western track you will get into the rain shield on the backside of Irene and within this shield there will be embedded banding which should contain wind gusts to tropical storm strength.

The surprise is going to be after the storm ends with the wind in your area. There will be a sharply rising pressure and a decent push of cold air advection/dry air behind the system which would bring some of the stronger winds aloft around the periphery of Irene's circulation down to the surface. This means that even after the storm passes there could still be wind gusts to tropical storm force for a few hours. Not good should there be excessive rainfall.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
44. sullivanweather
10:50 AM GMT on August 25, 2011
Good morning, everyone!

Just got in from work. Everything in the forecast seems to be on track so far. No bites in this pond because this ain't no fish. The shift in the models back west yesterday (especially over the Northeast) may put an even larger area at risk for flooding. Will detail in a new blog I'll be in the process of constructing during the morning. I hope to have it out by no later than the 12Z runs of the models (about 2:30pm).



This is it. We'll be watching history unfold this weekend. I'm never one to really flip out but this is a very serious storm. It's large and will have an expanding windfield (think Katrina) so even if it literally hugs the coast of New Jersey and comes ashore in western Long Island, hurricane force winds will still be felt up to 125-150 miles to the east of the center all the way to Cape Cod. As I noted in a previous blog, this will be the worst hurricane in a generation so it will be worse than the worst recent storm anyone can think of. Something to keep in mind.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
43. MarylandGirl
9:34 AM GMT on August 25, 2011
Now the track is more west??? Not good for us, might bring it up the Chesapeake Bay???!! Waiting for Sulli's take on this later today......
Member Since: September 10, 2001 Posts: 2 Comments: 486
42. listenerVT
6:20 AM GMT on August 25, 2011
WHOA! The models have shifted strongly west!!
It's possible that Irene could yet come up the Connecticut River!

So I need to ask...
If I lose power up here, is there someone I could call for an occasional update?

If so, send me a wee note.
Thanks...!

Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5512
41. listenerVT
6:01 AM GMT on August 25, 2011
The 2am update is up.

No change to the track since 11pm.

See you in the morning.


KEEPER...hoping you're okay.

Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5512
40. listenerVT
5:06 AM GMT on August 25, 2011
CAMS!
Just found this in a note to my sister-in-law on Nantucket, sent last year as Hurricane Earl came alongside the coast as a Cat 3, and was supposed to affect New England on Sunday, August 29th, 2010. We lucked out as it was offshore, unlike Irene.


CAPE COD Live Cams: http://www.capecodlivecam.com/

NANTUCKET Greatpoint Cam: http://colossus.bu.edu/latestGreatpoint/

NANTUCKET Jetties Beach Cam: http://www.nantucket.net/live/jetties.php

Cams at various sites between Baltimore and Maine:
http://www.hazecam.net/allsites.html
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5512
39. listenerVT
3:42 AM GMT on August 25, 2011
Quoting JerseyShoreGirl:
I am in the Barnegat, NJ area. I live on the Bay-- the mouth of the Inlet. I have been reading and watching, but I have not heard much about the Jersey Coastline. Anyone have any guess as to what I can expect here? Surge? Winds?

Thank you in advance!


Hi JerseyShoreGirl,
You have centered on the question we're all waiting for Irene to reveal the answer to. The 11pm forecast shows a significant bump to the west, so I'd say you have more to be concerned about this evening than we were led to believe earlier today. Wherever the eye of this storm falls, the entire coastline is going to be raked and a storm that strong has to bring a large storm surge. I hope Sully can decipher just how high. Good for you keeping attentive!
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5512
38. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:14 AM GMT on August 25, 2011
09L/MH/I/C3
RI FLAG (off)
MARK
26.00n/76.00w forecast point





ALWAYS FOLLOW NHC/TPC FORECASTS FOR ALL WARNINGS REGARDING THIS STORM
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54398
37. JerseyShoreGirl
3:01 AM GMT on August 25, 2011
I am in the Barnegat, NJ area. I live on the Bay-- the mouth of the Inlet. I have been reading and watching, but I have not heard much about the Jersey Coastline. Anyone have any guess as to what I can expect here? Surge? Winds?

Thank you in advance!
Member Since: February 25, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 22
36. listenerVT
2:10 AM GMT on August 25, 2011
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
storms getting close
now under tornado warning here
lightening is constant
with a constant thunderings as well
be back in a bit


Not good. Be sure to check back when you can and let us know how you fare.

Hoping good things your way!
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5512
35. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:13 AM GMT on August 25, 2011
storms getting close
now under tornado warning here
lightening is constant
with a constant thunderings as well
be back in a bit
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54398
34. listenerVT
1:11 AM GMT on August 25, 2011
Thanks, KEEPER!

One graphic in motion is worth a thousand warnings!

Irene apparently plans to send her eye right over my brother's house in MA, multiple relatives' homes in NH, and my daughter's house in ME!
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5512
33. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:09 AM GMT on August 25, 2011
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54398
32. kaaterskillfalls
1:05 AM GMT on August 25, 2011
Sully - I'm up in Rhinebeck area. This weekend is the Dutchess County Fair. The fair actually runs all week - so we'll have severe weather tomorrow perhaps and then maybe a hurricane over the weekend. Wow - what timing :)

Think we'll get enough of a punch up here to make us sit up and take notice ?

BTW your forecasts and discussions are the most interesting of any weather related info I've come across on the web. Tough to explain really but your presentation is very readable and informative but also very technical without being too much to handle. It's just right for both the layperson or very technically oriented - a very rare accomplishment indeed - nice job !
Member Since: August 31, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 101
31. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:04 AM GMT on August 25, 2011
09L/MH/I/C3
RI FLAG (off)
MARK
26.00n/76.00w forecast point





ALWAYS FOLLOW NHC/TPC FORECASTS FOR ALL WARNINGS REGARDING THIS STORM
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54398
30. listenerVT
12:56 AM GMT on August 25, 2011
Quoting NJLuLu:
Well this is getting super serious. I have a planned Fundraiser inside/outside this Saturday for a cancer victim 39 N 74 W. Lots of prep and clean up. Praying a big turn out to sea.... Any Chance?


Hurricanes will do what they will do.
But it does not look like Irene would turn in time to give good weather for your event, unless it's in the morning...but wouldn't people need to be evacuating and preparing?
Are you near Atlantic City? The coordinates you posted appear to be offshore there.
The current understanding http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at2 01109_5day.html is that Irene will be centered on or just off the Outer Banks around 2pm on Saturday as a Category 3 storm. Take a look at the satellite picture of Irene here: http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at2 01109_sat.html and see how large the storm is. If that track holds, Irene would be centered near what I think is your area around 6pm...?
Remember what Sully wrote in his post above, that there may also be some pre-event rain as well.
Since I have a brother-in-law with pancreatic cancer, a little grandniece with neuroblastoma and a sister-in-law who heads up Make-a-Wish in her state, I am heartwarmed that you are doing this event for a dear person with cancer!! But I would not want you to risk your life to accomplish it. Could you possibly postpone one week? My heart goes out to you! ♥
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5512
29. NJLuLu
11:53 PM GMT on August 24, 2011
Well this is getting super serious. I have a planned Fundraiser inside/outside this Saturday for a cancer victim 39 N 74 W. Lots of prep and clean up. Praying a big turn out to sea.... Any Chance?
Member Since: January 10, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 18
28. listenerVT
9:14 PM GMT on August 24, 2011
I just did the math (here: http://go.grolier.com/atlas?op=gd&tn=/atlas/globa ldist.html )
and learned that I am 136 miles from the NH coast, as the crow flies. That means I'll be about 100 miles from Irene as she passes through NH. So I'll see TS force up here in NW VT, won't I?

Or will I? After all, I'm to the west. What's your take on it, Sully? Gusts as high as..??
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5512
27. sullivanweather
9:14 PM GMT on August 24, 2011
Quoting US20881:


That would put me on the wrong side of the eye, in about max velocity I would think. What's your opinion of wind levels just east of the eye at landfall? Could be an interesting weekend.




On the Island east of landfall winds should peak at 85-100mph sustained with gusts to 110mph in a narrow band 10-20 miles east of the landfall and at 60-80mph over the next 30-50 miles east with gusts to 100mph.


To the west of landfall sustained winds will drop off quickly to less than hurricane force sustained after 20 miles and occur only in gusts over western Long Island and possibly NYC.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
26. sullivanweather
9:09 PM GMT on August 24, 2011
Quoting MarylandGirl:
Sulli, thanks for the updates. I am in southern Maryland, St. Mary's County, and we are at the confluence of the bay and 2 rivers. What do you think will be the effect here? We are higher up from water than some which is a blessing during storms. We are also due to fly out of BWI on Sat. to go to Michigan to take care of aging parent.....not the best timing. Thanks again!




You're in for a rough go of it. Borderline on the tropical storm/hurricane conditions so expect 50-60mph sustained during the height of the storm on Saturday with gusts up to 75mph. 5-8" of rain and a 2-4' storm surge.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
25. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
9:01 PM GMT on August 24, 2011
09L/MH/I/C3
RI FLAG (off)
MARK
24.00n/75.00w forecast point





ALWAYS FOLLOW NHC/TPC FORECASTS FOR ALL WARNINGS REGARDING THIS STORM
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54398
24. LettyS
8:37 PM GMT on August 24, 2011
Quoting listenerVT:


Egads! I hadn't heard that that's what EURO is saying!! Folks say the EURO has been the most correct too! That would be so bad.


The Weather Channel just put us under EXTREME threat from Irene. Who knows what will ultimately happen, but I'm getting far more nervous than I was even a couple of hours ago.

Whatever happens, I think it's going to be epic.
Member Since: January 10, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 92
23. listenerVT
8:22 PM GMT on August 24, 2011
Bayview ~ Well spoken! I agree heartily, and I send my best to you and both your houses.


MarylandGirl ~ Any chance you can take an earlier flight out? Take care, and all the best to your family. ♥


Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5512
22. listenerVT
8:12 PM GMT on August 24, 2011
Quoting LettyS:


I'm lower down, thankfully. I see Henry Margusity is liking the latest EURO track which take the eye right over NYC and up the Hudson Valley. I sincerely hope he is wrong and that model is incorrect.


Egads! I hadn't heard that that's what EURO is saying!! Folks say the EURO has been the most correct too! That would be so bad.
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5512
21. listenerVT
8:07 PM GMT on August 24, 2011
Hi Sully. Thanks as ever!!

The Atlantic Basin Hurricane Tracking Chart you show does not reflect that Irene is going to become a Cat 4 as well. To align it with the 2pm cone, one needs to adjust by upgrading the storm strength by one category from mid-Florida upwards. That would suggest Irene would hit Long Island as a Cat 2, become a Cat 1 over my brother's house a tad west of Boston, then become a TS midway up Maine. Irene is a scary storm!

I read your update a few minutes after you posted it, but have been so busy updating loved ones that I didn't have time to comment on it until now!


Plus, I have posted the latest Ally update over at Crowe's blog. She is still HAMA negative, so has to wait to have more 3f8 treatments in NYC. Her Mom is waiting to hear from the docs in NYC about what to do meanwhile. The reason this is significant is that Ally can only receive 3f8 treatments until February, then she has to go off the protocol. So they want her to get as many 3f8 treatments as possible before then, as that increases her chances of the cancer not returning.
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5512
20. LettyS
7:14 PM GMT on August 24, 2011
Quoting sullivanweather:
Letty,

If you're down in the valley you should be fine. But if you're in the highlands closer to Jersey you might want to add a good 5-10mph onto those #'s I gave you for elevation sake.


I'm lower down, thankfully. I see Henry Margusity is liking the latest EURO track which take the eye right over NYC and up the Hudson Valley. I sincerely hope he is wrong and that model is incorrect.
Member Since: January 10, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 92
19. US20881
7:06 PM GMT on August 24, 2011
Quoting sullivanweather:


I would put my confidence level at 50% for a landfall within 15 miles either side of Patchouge.

15% west of there.
35% east of there.


That would put me on the wrong side of the eye, in about max velocity I would think. What's your opinion of wind levels just east of the eye at landfall? Could be an interesting weekend.
Member Since: August 24, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 3
18. MarylandGirl
7:05 PM GMT on August 24, 2011
Sulli, thanks for the updates. I am in southern Maryland, St. Mary's County, and we are at the confluence of the bay and 2 rivers. What do you think will be the effect here? We are higher up from water than some which is a blessing during storms. We are also due to fly out of BWI on Sat. to go to Michigan to take care of aging parent.....not the best timing. Thanks again!
Member Since: September 10, 2001 Posts: 2 Comments: 486
17. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
6:24 PM GMT on August 24, 2011
T.C.F.A.
XX/INV/90L
MARK
XX.XXN/XX.XXW
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54398
16. sullivanweather
6:22 PM GMT on August 24, 2011
Letty,

If you're down in the valley you should be fine. But if you're in the highlands closer to Jersey you might want to add a good 5-10mph onto those #'s I gave you for elevation sake.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
15. sullivanweather
6:21 PM GMT on August 24, 2011
Quoting US20881:
I was starting to feel a little better with the models creeping off shore, then I find your blog calling for landfall on Long Island. Yipes! I'm in Sag Harbor on the East End with a boat to worry about. Are you comfortable with your assessment?


I would put my confidence level at 50% for a landfall within 15 miles either side of Patchouge.

15% west of there.
35% east of there.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
14. LettyS
6:21 PM GMT on August 24, 2011
Quoting sullivanweather:


It looks like Warwick will get into a 2-3 hour period of 35-40 mph sustained winds with gusts to 55 or so. So right at the threshold for a tropical storm. The rest of the storm will likely be 20-25 mph winds with gusts to 40. Probably will have the feel of a rainy nor'easter, just muggy...lol


Thanks, Sulli! That's pretty much what I figured. Fine with me! I'd be happy to avoid it all together. Now I can concentrate on worrying about everyone else. :-\
Member Since: January 10, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 92
13. sullivanweather
6:16 PM GMT on August 24, 2011
Quoting LettyS:
I'm trying to figure out just what the impacts could be in Warwick, NY. I'm thinking heavy rain and TS winds, but am unsure which end of the spectrum. Very concerned for my family in northeastern MA. Mom is in an assisted living facility in Billerica, which is of particular concern to me. Brothers in Lowell and Billerica as well. This just doesn't sound good at all.


It looks like Warwick will get into a 2-3 hour period of 35-40 mph sustained winds with gusts to 55 or so. So right at the threshold for a tropical storm. The rest of the storm will likely be 20-25 mph winds with gusts to 40. Probably will have the feel of a rainy nor'easter, just muggy...lol
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
12. sullivanweather
6:12 PM GMT on August 24, 2011
LT,

The winds at their strongest will have an easterly component to them. Probably 40-50 sustained, gusts to 65 or so. One of those rainbands that sweep through will mean business.

The rest of the storm will probably be 25-40 sustained, gusting to 55.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
11. US20881
5:41 PM GMT on August 24, 2011
I was starting to feel a little better with the models creeping off shore, then I find your blog calling for landfall on Long Island. Yipes! I'm in Sag Harbor on the East End with a boat to worry about. Are you comfortable with your assessment?
Member Since: August 24, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 3
10. LettyS
5:34 PM GMT on August 24, 2011
I'm trying to figure out just what the impacts could be in Warwick, NY. I'm thinking heavy rain and TS winds, but am unsure which end of the spectrum. Very concerned for my family in northeastern MA. Mom is in an assisted living facility in Billerica, which is of particular concern to me. Brothers in Lowell and Billerica as well. This just doesn't sound good at all.
Member Since: January 10, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 92
9. originalLT
5:20 PM GMT on August 24, 2011
Thanks Sully, you are painting a pretty severe picture, or forecast for my area , worse than I thought. I will start to take in, starting thurs., the lawn furniture, garbage cans, hanging potted plants etc. Just worried about that huge oak tree I have on the eastern side of the house. Do you think my winds will be from the E and NE during the worst part of the storm? Sure looks that way. LT
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7608
8. sullivanweather
4:12 PM GMT on August 24, 2011
Quoting Bayview:
Thank you for your excellent and informative weather forecast, Mr. Sullivan. I've read your forecasts and comments over the years and have thoroughly enjoyed and learned from your expertise. You say you are "an avid weather enthusiast"--you are WAY MORE ACCURATE than almost all the professional meteorologists out there and with less drama! I've read you when I lived in SE Fairfield County; when snowstorms were my concern, and you were spot-on then. Now I am at the Jersey shore, near LBI, and still own the home in CT. Potentially I could have a huge amount of damage in two places and as of last night, I was a basket case reading the hurricane blog here. Your blog and predictions today and the timing of events are extremely informative and needed for those in the path of this hurricane. Not TWC and others here screaming of doom and gloom. Just give it to me straight without the hysterics! I've lived through Gloria in '85 and it sucked. Had my 7 month old son on my lap, huddled for hours in a safe spot of the house, with trees falling all around me. The "eye" of that cane went right over the house! (Grabbed a camera at that point for posterity!) Now I am 27 years older, waaay more tired, and just plain not wanting to deal with this scenario again, but I guess I have to! Just don't want another frickin eye over me again! Keep up your awesome, and accurate weather blogging...you are a breath of fresh air! (Pun intended!) I listened to Joe B. when he lived and skied in CT, before he became famous and he was almost always right...just like you have been. Hmmmm? (Don't miss your calling, dude! You've got it,IMHO.) Bless you and be safe!



Thank you so much for that very thoughtful comment!! =)

Comments like yours really have helped me over these past couple weeks get back into the swing of things and for that I'm ever grateful. I'm very pleased to be able to give out a forecast that people can use reliably.

I'm glad you notice my style of forecasting. I really do try and make it as easy to understand as possible without the hype. There's always time to hype up the big storms and I do believe the time will come with Irene where things will need to be rushed to completion but I don't think it's that time yet. Almost. But I did want to emphasize that now would be a good time to make preliminary preparations, which I'm glad some people started to do because it does seem that this one is heading this way.

Since Irene is a huge storm and will not only take time to spin down and retain those strong winds aloft, the north side of the storm will have some really strong rain bands as frontogenic forcing develops and forces some slantwise convection, akin to how a nor'easter produces thundersnow. This could very well force some of those strong winds aloft down to the surface. So you are right about both your places getting hammered cause I take it a line between them will nearly parallel the track of the storm.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
7. Bayview
3:58 PM GMT on August 24, 2011
Thank you for your excellent and informative weather forecast, Mr. Sullivan. I've read your forecasts and comments over the years and have thoroughly enjoyed and learned from your expertise. You say you are "an avid weather enthusiast"--you are WAY MORE ACCURATE than almost all the professional meteorologists out there and with less drama! I've read you when I lived in SE Fairfield County; when snowstorms were my concern, and you were spot-on then. Now I am at the Jersey shore, near LBI, and still own the home in CT. Potentially I could have a huge amount of damage in two places and as of last night, I was a basket case reading the hurricane blog here. Your blog and predictions today and the timing of events are extremely informative and needed for those in the path of this hurricane. Not TWC and others here screaming of doom and gloom. Just give it to me straight without the hysterics! I've lived through Gloria in '85 and it sucked. Had my 7 month old son on my lap, huddled for hours in a safe spot of the house, with trees falling all around me. The "eye" of that cane went right over the house! (Grabbed a camera at that point for posterity!) Now I am 27 years older, waaay more tired, and just plain not wanting to deal with this scenario again, but I guess I have to! Just don't want another frickin eye over me again! Keep up your awesome, and accurate weather blogging...you are a breath of fresh air! (Pun intended!) I listened to Joe B. when he lived and skied in CT, before he became famous and he was almost always right...just like you have been. Hmmmm? (Don't miss your calling, dude! You've got it,IMHO.) Bless you and be safe!
Member Since: January 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4
6. sullivanweather
3:57 PM GMT on August 24, 2011
NEwxguy,

On my 'earlycast' intensity map I have it weakening from a cat 2 to 1 as it makes landfall on Long Island.

**but I keep it a cat 1 right up to the Maine border**
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
5. NEwxguy
3:54 PM GMT on August 24, 2011
Great,going to watch that 78W.I just read we have astronomical high tides right now also,not good news for the coast.NHC now expects it to get to a Cat 4 before slowly weakening,but it will be going so fast as it approaches us,its still going to be strong up here.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 881 Comments: 15840
4. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:53 PM GMT on August 24, 2011
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54398

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Thomas is an avid weather enthusiast, landscaper and organic gardener. This blog is dedicated to Northeast and tropical weather forecasting. Enjoy!

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