Northeast Weather Blog

Fall Foliage/Severe storms today
Posted by: sullivanweather, 9:06 PM GMT on October 14, 2007 +0
I'll be putting weather on the back burner this week as I dedicate a blog to the wonderful spectacle of the Autumn season.

I will be adding to this blog as the week progresses but to get it started I'll be posting about 20 or so pictures of this wonderful season in all it's glory. Any visitors that would like to add pictures here of the Autumn season have all my blessings.

I will still keep my monthly weather statistics at the bottom of the blog along with any weather events on the horizon. There is a tropical disturbance and a strong fall storm forecast to approach the area by weeks' end, so I'm sure there will be plenty of weather to catch up on here.



Fire Maples




Golden Fields at Morning




Splashes of Colour





Reflections of Fall





Autumn Sunrise






Harvest Moon





Where the Frogs Live




Can We Fly Now?






Clovers too?







Autumn on Rocks






Trying to Cheer up the Barn






Misty Morning Lake






Dry Times






More Fall Fields





Autumn Road






More Fire Maples






Turkeys!






Autumn North






One Tree, Every Colour






Orb web exposed






Scarlett Sisters





Verbena





Grumpy Stump O' the Forest





Red Berries





The Peaks' End







Glow in the Dark






Sunset on the Ridge
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Regional Forecast.

A weak ridge of high pressure will move over the region Tuesday night and offshore on Wednesday. A weakening trough will approch Wednesday bringing chances for showers and drizzle. Upper ridge axis then pulls east into the region for Thursday which could give most of the area a nice fall day with temperatures running 10-15 degrees above normal. A strengthening low moving from the Midwest into the Upper Great Lakes region will spread rain into the western sections of the region by Thursday night. A strong front sweeps east of this low into the region on Friday. There's a chance for severe thunderstorms with the passage of this cold front across Pennsylvania, New Jersey and the southern half of New York State. A triple point low should form in north-central Pennsylvania/the Finger Lakes region of New York and pull northeast to a position just north of Maine by Saturday at noon. This will bring a swath of heavy rain from a Syracuse-Albany-Boston line north and east. Unfortunately Southeastern southern New England could miss out on heavy precipitation yet again. Cool cyclonic flow will keep clouds and showers around throughout the remainder of the weekend with lake response and terrain enhancement.

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A fairly warm fall airmass will move into the region on Thursday. Most areas except for northern New England will lie in the warm sector with temperatures running 10-15 degrees above normal. With the warm front draped across northern areas clouds and a chance for showers will be present. South of this boundary a mix of sun and mid/high clouds will provide for a wonderful fall afternoon. Temperatures will climb into the 70's and perhaps as high as 80°F along the coastal plain. Along and to the north of the warm front temperatures will remain in the 50's to low 60's.

Warm southerly flow will continue into Thursday night. Low temperatures will run 15-20 degrees above normal. There could be some showers that move into western sections as the cold frontal precipitation approaches the area. Otherwise skies across the area will be mostly cloudy. Along the coast there could be some fog/low stratus deck that develops and spreads inland. Lows will drop into the 40's across northern New England with 50's and 60's acorss the rest of the interior from north to south.

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Main action will come on Friday as a strong area of low pressure wraps up in the Western Great Lakes and moves towards Hudson Bay. This low will send a front plowing through the region that will be a focus for heavy rain and possible severe thunderstorms. The front will move at a fair rate of speed from west to east so widespread flooding is not of particular concern. There could be some flash flooding where cells train ahead of the front before it passes through. There does appear to be a pre-frontal trough that will serve as a focus for thunderstorm development before the main cold front moves through. PW's rise to nearly 2" across the southern half of the Northeast on Friday afternoon so these stroms could be very heavy rainers.

As the cold front makes it's passage there could be a very strong squall line along the wind shift. This could easily drop over an inch of rain in a very short period of time and bring winds gusts of 40-60mph. Some of the individual cells within this squall line could contain small hail as well.

Friday/Saturday storm

Precipitation will taper quickly after the passage of the cold front in New York and Pennsylvania. Winds will shift to the west and it will be breezy. Temperatures behind the front should fall close to normal levels for this time of year, so the air behind the front isn't terribly chilly.

Rain and embedded thundershowers will spread into New England during the evening and into the overnight. Chances for severe weather during the evening will extend from east-central New York southward to southeastern Pennsylvania. Strong straightline winds will be the main threat from these storms with a slight chance for some wet microbursts. This system is a tornado producer as well. Although the main area of dynamics lifts into the upper Great Lakes some energy will be transfered to a developing triple point low in north-central Pennsylvania Friday afternoon. So an isolated tornado is not out of the question!

Severe weather after midnight should be limited to a few locales in southern New England as the weakening squall line moves into a more stable airmass. For the most part this line will bring a brief shot of heavy rain and some 40mph wind gusts to the eastern half of southern New England. Extreme southeastern New England could miss the boat again with this storm as triple point low pulls into Canada bringing most of the moisture and dynamics with it. This area will have to rely on a weakening band of rain and thunderstorms associated with the cold front. Up to a half inch of rain could fall, but much more is needed. Especially when neighbors to the north and west have the potential for much more.

Rain will continue into Saturday over central and northern New England. This rain could come down heavy at times as the triple point low moves up the St.Lawrence Valley. Rain will taper from south to north during the morning and early afternoon. Temperatures will return to near normal on Saturday across the Northeast. Some showers could fall downwind of the lakes and across higher elevations of northern New York and Vermont. Clouds will hang around most of the interior with some clearing along the coastal plain.



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NE radar

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Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.

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Great Lakes SST's 9-29

Great Lakes SST's as of 10/14/2007.
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October daily weather statistics.

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October 1st - 64°F/46°F....0.00"....15%
October 2nd - 69°F/49°F....0.00"....25%
October 3rd - 77°F/55°F....0.00"....40%
October 4th - 82°F/55°F....0.00"....60%
October 5th - 82°F/55°F....0.00"....80%
October 6th - 84°F/54°F....0.17"....85%
October 7th - 75°F/54°F....0.01"....45%
October 8th - 83°F/52°F....0.71"....70%
October 9th - 68°F/55°F....0.63"....10%
October 10th - 70°F/54°F....0.05"....35%
October 11th - 56°F/52°F....2.76"....0%
October 12th - 55°F/38°F....0.23"....30%
October 13th - 54°F/36°F....0.00"....40%
October 14th - 53°F/37°F....Trace....20%
October 15th - 57°F/45°F....0.00"....30%
October 16th - 64°F/41°F....0.00"....40%
October 17th - 66°F/45°F....Trace....55%
October 18th - 73°F/48°F....0.00"....60%



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1. DenverMark 9:49 PM GMT on October 14, 2007    
I love the colors! So nice back East in the fall!!
Member Since: February 11, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 6988
2. miawolf 9:51 PM GMT on October 14, 2007    
Hi Sullivan,
Great photos here! Superb.
3. sullivanweather 10:05 PM GMT on October 14, 2007    
Hi Mark!

They certainly are wonderful!! Although I would love to see those Aspens out there in the Rockies. I bet they're spectacular!

Our peak passed with a couple of pretty good thunderstorms. Two on Monday and another round of heavy showers on Tuesday. Then we got the Nor'easter on Thursday and Friday with strong winds this weekend. As you can imagine the colour here is gone, except for some hardy oaks that love to keep their leaves until November and almost immediately turn brown.

Not too far to the south, however, the trees have yet to peak. We had two nights of frost at my location on 9-15/16 and some areas just south of here escaped it. This gave us a wonderful display of colour throughout that long 20 day or so period of indian summer. the only problem was that it was very humid over that stretch and didn't make for the clearest of skies. Good shots of long distance were hard to come by. But the trees themselves put on the best display I have yet to see. Some perfect conditions for bringing out fall colour played into it. Heavy spring rains, near to below normal summer precip, but came in regular occurance. Then from mid august to just recently we had only 30-50% of normal precip. Then came the early frost and a long stretch of dry calm weather. There was good colour from 9/20-10/8.

Thanks for stopping by and leaving a comment!
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 269 Comments: 12492
5. moonlightcowboy 4:40 AM GMT on October 15, 2007    
B E A U T I F U L, Sully! All, but my fav is #3...love the trunks that spiral up to the fall foilage. Looks like one for the wall!
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 179 Comments: 28210
6. beell 4:58 AM GMT on October 15, 2007    
"Misty Morning Lake" for me Sullivan.
Where's my canoe?
Thanks-some time well spent here on your part and mine fwiw.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 126 Comments: 13069
7. sullivanweather 6:15 AM GMT on October 15, 2007    
Thanks guys!!

Hopefully there's more on the way. Have to go landscape down in Port Jervis later this week so I'm sure I'll be able to get some then. Maybe I'll go visit my parents in Middletown. Both of these locations have yet to reach their peak.

Keep checking back every few days for updates. Once again, thanks for the comments!!
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 269 Comments: 12492
8. Fshhead 8:05 AM GMT on October 15, 2007    
Sully like I told you before those are some awesome pics & my favorites are still#'s 5&10!!
Saw you added a few more that I had not seen. Saw you taking some "heat" in my blog lol
Member Since: November 19, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 9960
9. sullivanweather 5:07 PM GMT on October 15, 2007    
Hey Fish!!

There's more on the way, hopefully. I might go back in the woods today and snap a few past peask photos. Maybe some Oaks are starting to display themselves.

I have to go landscape this week where the peak has yet to come, so I'm sure I'll get a few good pics from there as well.

----


That DoverDan guy just can't take the fact that his GW champion is not as envrio-friendly as he seems on the surface. The problem is that people have associated CO2/GHG emissions with environmentalism. I still believe that doing good for the environment is making wise landuse decisions and using organic products (instead of chemical/syntesized ones) and not being associated with/profit from operations that cause real pollution i.e.letting these chemicals seep into the ground.

No Dover mentioned that the groundwater was okay around the mine site but I wouldn't drink that water. Who knows how many hydraulic lines burst, gas spilled, oil leaked into the ground and all the other nasties that are involved in keeping that machinery working to get as much product out of the ground, not to mention the special zinc mine industry products that are used that we probably don't know about.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 269 Comments: 12492
10. Winterstormsblog 5:15 PM GMT on October 15, 2007    
Hi sullivanweather,
thanks for the great blog and photos. I noticed that you are located in New York state. I have a blog on winter weather in the Eastern United states. I give some forcasts, post snowfall amounts, and try to give the most up to date information on winter weather. Please come check it out this winter, thanks.
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 86 Comments: 5650
11. sullivanweather 8:49 PM GMT on October 15, 2007    
Going out for a walk through the woods now.

Hopefully I come back with some more pics!!

If there's any worthy pics I should have them posted here by this evening.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 269 Comments: 12492
12. Winterstormsblog 11:33 PM GMT on October 15, 2007    
Thanks for checking out my blog, I cant wait for your winter outlook. Also I was wondering if you could help me out, I cant seem to figure out how to post photos on my blog. I click image and it asks for a website address?? If you or somebody else reading his could help me out I would really appreciate it.
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 86 Comments: 5650
13. Fshhead 11:44 PM GMT on October 15, 2007    
Hey Sully I was just looking at your MapLoco hit counter. You really moving up man, you got more hits than me today LMAO!!!!!! But, I get Worldwide visitors so na, na, na ,na, na!!! lol
J/K!!!!! Man did you see Troupers post about my blog's influence on him?? *blushes*
Man that makes every hour I spend on it TOTALLY worth it!!!!!!! :))))
Member Since: November 19, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 9960
14. sullivanweather 1:09 AM GMT on October 16, 2007    
Hey Fish!

I did see that and thought that it was awesome!

I'm glad to see that the info you've been posting in your blog for these past couple of years is making a difference in people's lives! I'm sure it makes the time you put into the blog fell worth it and more!

They were very kind words.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 269 Comments: 12492
15. Alleyoops 3:40 AM GMT on October 16, 2007    
Looks like you folks go the rain they had forecasted for us this afternoon but thankfully it went northeast of us. There is still the possibility of rain yet for the next couple of days so its a waiting game at the moment if we here in Chatham, Ont get any. So far all of it has went around us. Still quite warm at 59F now at ll:30 PM. We did see 69F this afternoon here so at present we are having our normal fall temps. Suppose to be a great weekend for us. Lets hope the forecast does not change much. Have a restful night and may your day be great tomorrow.
Member Since: April 18, 2007 Posts: 187 Comments: 29188
16. Winterstormsblog 3:44 PM GMT on October 16, 2007    
Just looking at your great photos, I love photo #5 from the top. keep the pics commming!
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 86 Comments: 5650
17. NumberWise 11:15 PM GMT on October 16, 2007    
Great photos, and I've enjoyed them several times. I like that you included some taken on hazy days, for we seem to get a lot of those during the fall.

I'm still trying to figure out what the foliage is doing around here! Most places have not gotten a frost, and many trees still have green leaves. The foliage color has been increasing each day in area, but we aren't getting the blazing colors we usually do. Many trees seem to turn a muted red, orange, or yellow, but then the leaves fade and drop off.

I appreciated your debate in pumps' blog. You state your points clearly, and your rebuttal is always polite and factual. When these exchanges are factual and civil, they have much more impact, for we readers will read the "whole thing".
Member Since: October 22, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1569

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About sullivanweather
Thomas is an avid weather enthusiast, landscaper and organic gardener. This blog is dedicated to Northeast and tropical weather forecasting. Enjoy!

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