Don't put away the raingear yet!

By: sullivanweather , 1:04 PM GMT on June 25, 2009

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Fig.2 - USDA plant hardiness zone map of the eastern United States circa 1990. Credit: USDA

Garden Series

Blog 1: Planning the Garden


Blog 2: Cool season crops


Blog 3: Companion Planting


Blog 4: Container Gardening


Blog 5: Warm Season Crops(1)


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Soil Conditions

**Please note**
These soil condition charts are self-updating and occasionally display corrupted data (more often than not lately).


Soil moisture and anomalies 0-200cm
Soil moisture 0-200cm
Fig.3 - Weekly averaged soil moisture and anomalies 0-200cm. Credit: NOAA

Soil temperature 0-10cm
Soil temperature 0-10cm
Fig.4 - 6-hourly updated 0-10cm soil temperature. Credit: NOAA

Soil temperature and anomalies 10-40cm
Soil temperature 10-40cm
Fig.5 - Weekly updated 10-40cm soil temperature and anomalies. Credit: NOAA


Kelvin temperature scale
273.15°K = 0°C


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**Updated with data to June 18th**

Julian Day 161

------- Extent (km^2)----Difference (km^2)
2003 – 11,230,313……..……….-26,562
2004 – 11,043,594……..……….-26,562
2005 – 10,681,875……..……….-45,625
2006 – 10,690,000……..……….-80,156
2007 – 10,884,844………………-32,344
2008 – 10,897,031………..…….-101,407
2009 – 10,976,094………..…….-10,781

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Julian Day 162

------- Extent (km^2)----Difference (km^2)
2003 – 11,190,000……..……….-40,313
2004 – 11,013,906……..……….-29,688
2005 – 10,663,750……..……….-18,125
2006 – 10,622,969……..……….-67,031
2007 – 10,828,750………………-56,094
2008 – 10,827,656………..…….-69,375
2009 – 10,958,281………..…….-17,813

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Julian Day 163

------- Extent (km^2)----Difference (km^2)
2003 – 11,127,969……..……….-62,031
2004 – 10,971,563……..……….-42,343
2005 – 10,634,219……..……….-29,531
2006 – 10,560,000……..……….-62,969
2007 – 10,811,094………………-17,656
2008 – 10,806,875………..…….-20,781
2009 – 10,937,656………..…….-20,625

-------

Julian Day 164

------- Extent (km^2)----Difference (km^2)
2003 – 11,079,688……..……….-48,281
2004 – 10,953,438……..……….-18,125
2005 – 10,627,969……..……….-6,250
2006 – 10,507,500……..……….-52,500
2007 – 10,775,000………………-36,094
2008 – 10,775,938………..…….-30,937
2009 – 10,922,344………..…….-15,312

-------

Julian Day 165

------- Extent (km^2)----Difference (km^2)
2003 – 11,020,625……..……….-59,063
2004 – 10,916,406……..……….-37,032
2005 – 10,597,500……..……….-30,469
2006 – 10,442,344……..……….-65,156
2007 – 10,699,531………………-75,469
2008 – 10,736,250………..…….-39,688
2009 – 10,875,625………..…….-46,719

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Julian Day 166

------- Extent (km^2)----Difference (km^2)
2003 – 10,967,500……..……….-53,125
2004 – 10,857,656……..……….-58,750
2005 – 10,552,656……..……….-44,844
2006 – 10,379,844……..……….-62,500
2007 – 10,626,250………………-73,281
2008 – 10,714,063………..…….-22,187
2009 – 10,813,906………..…….-61,719

-------

Julian Day 167

------- Extent (km^2)----Difference (km^2)
2003 – 10,939,844……..……….-27,656
2004 – 10,806,250……..……….-51,406
2005 – 10,487,188……..……….-65,468
2006 – 10,337,969……..……….-41,875
2007 – 10,574,844………………-51,406
2008 – 10,664,531………..…….-49,532
2009 – 10,747,500………..…….-66,406

-------

Julian Day 168

------- Extent (km^2)----Difference (km^2)
2003 – 10,888,594……..……….-51,250
2004 – 10,752,344……..……….-53,906
2005 – 10,429,063……..……….-58,125
2006 – 10,285,469……..……….-52,500
2007 – 10,522,500………………-52,344
2008 – 10,612,969………..…….-51,562
2009 – 10,671,719………..…….-75,781



(*denotes extrapolated figure)


Sea-ice notes this week:

Coming soon...

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Pics from the cryosphere



Fig.6 - Melt ponds forming on the Greenland ice cap as seen from space.



Fig.6a - Weakening shorefast ice along the Siberian coast.


Extent difference


Fig.7 - Difference in sea-ice extent between 2009 and recent years.



Melt Rate


Fig.8 - 2009(blue) daily melt rate of Arctic sea-ice compared to 2008(red).

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Fig.9 - 2009(blue) daily melt rate of Arctic sea-ice compared to 2007(magenta).

*Data retrieved from JAXA


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Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings
Fig.10 - Current watches, warning and advisories issued by the National Weather Service. Courtesy of NOAA.

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Forecast Discussion


Synopsis - Issued - 6/25 @9:00am


The vertically stacked low offshore the New England Coast that has dogged the eastern half of the region with weather typically seen in April and May will finally lift, allowing for at least one day of some type of weather that resembles summer. Unfortunately, it’s being replaced quickly by the next trough currently digging into the Great Lakes. This trough will reach the Northeast by Friday, forming its own cut-off that will persist through the weekend. The story doesn’t get much better as another cut-off low pressure, this one much larger, slowly rotates towards the region from the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes early next week. This duo of low pressure areas will keep wet weather in the forecast throughout much of the period, though not everyday will be a washout.


Near-term - Issued - 6/25 @9:00am

A mix of sun and clouds this morning across a good portion of the Northeast, though most places have more clouds than sun. This is especially true along the New England coastal plain and portions of the interior where locally dense fog and light mist due to the still onshore flow from the low offshore continues to plague the region. Locally dense valley fog also exists in an axis from the southern Adirondacks to the Catskills, Poconos and surrounds areas where rainfall moved in late yesterday afternoon and evening. Temperatures throughout the region are mainly in the 60’s, with some of the higher terrain locales in the 50’s.

Short-term - Issued - 6/25 @9:00am

The fog should burn off during the mid-morning hours across the interior as the strong June sun goes to work. Along the coast it may take a bit longer, perhaps into the afternoon, for the sun to break out but it should eventually do so for most locales. Airmass over the region has considerably warmed since early in the week with 850mb temps running from 18°C across western Pennsylvania and New York to 13-14°C across eastern New England. With the high June sun shining down temperatures will quickly climb from their morning readings and reach into the 80’s from western New England on west. Eastern New England, where clouds remain the longest, temperatures may only hold in the 70’s.

Already moving in on the western horizon by afternoon will be the next trough. Ahead of this feature, the airmass will become quite unstable. CAPE values rise to over 2,000J/kg and with lifted indices in the -4 to -7 range and steep lapse rates into the mid-levels. What’s lacking is a well-defined trough passage to serve as the initiator for a more widespread event. Instead, an ill-defined pre-frontal trough will slide through providing weak convergence along its flanks for the development of convection. Another area to watch will be across the western Catskills and Poconos where leftover boundaries from yesterday’s showers and differential heating from thicker morning cloud cover should receive aid from the terrain allowing for isolated activity to develop. The flow aloft is weak, generally less than 20kts up to 500mb, so any storms that do develop will be slow movers. Precipitable water values will be roughly 125% of normal meaning any storms that do develop will be capable of producing torrential downpours. Given the expected slow movement of storms and nearly saturated ground localized flash flooding may be realized under the strongest cells.

The pre-frontal feature continues to move eastward, into eastern New York and western New England by late in the overnight. Showers and thunderstorms will accompany this feature but with the loss of daytime heating decreasing instability, the intensity of the storms will wane, eventually becoming thundershowers by tomorrow morning. Meanwhile, the actual front pushes into western New York and Pennsylvania after midnight with additional scattered showers and thunderstorms. Lows tonight will drop into the 60’s for most locales.


Mid/long-term - coming later


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Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar
Fig.11 - Radar loop of the Northeast region. Courtesy of Weather Underground.


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Local SST's

Northeast SST's
Fig.12 Sea-surface temperatures off the Northeast Coast. Courtesy of NOAA.


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17. Kaia
7:37 AM GMT on July 09, 2009
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
In 1976 the April heatwave was the hottest day of the year in Central Park, tied with a day in June. April 18.


Your memory is so amazing! haha...

ps: Welcome to visit my blog:http://www.oil-painting-online.com --- Stupendous Art World with Excellent Chinese Oil Paintings

16. Bonedog
3:22 PM GMT on June 26, 2009
Hey NE Ive been lurkin here and there when I get a chance. Took a second job so really dont have much time to be on the net.

I seen those storms up your way on radar looked nasty.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
15. NEwxguy
1:22 PM GMT on June 26, 2009
Hey,Bone,was asking the other day if anyone had seen you,good to see you. I'm expecting some big storms up my way today also. Had some big ones move through early this morning crossing over the north shore of Mass.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 887 Comments: 15965
14. TheDawnAwakening
11:19 AM GMT on June 26, 2009
Bonedog, I hope you get your storm so we can see the pictures.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 246 Comments: 3970
13. Bonedog
10:45 AM GMT on June 26, 2009
Morning All :)

Looks liek a busy day here as far as NE Weather goes. SPC has the region rocking later today. Geared up and ready over here and wishing work would end soon so I can get set up. Looking at the SPC maps NJ and SE NY are the prime spot today 2% Tornado Chance. Been a while since I have seen that :) Limitied on chase distance today due to prior commitments but hopefully the cells develope around Orange County and Northern NJ so I can be in position quickly.

Sulli what is your take on things today, I know its early yet and the ingrediants aren't in place but early guess?

Will be watching the maps and SPC to see if they narrow this down a little. If no tornados maybe some nice hail.

Anyways I will be in and out here today and watching the maps and radar stay safe everyone and keep a weather eye to the skys.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
12. TheDawnAwakening
2:48 AM GMT on June 26, 2009
Sully, I think tomorrow we do get a storm, especially at night. Right now its clear with temps near 60F with radiational cooling and the stars are amazing. We finally get to see the clear night skies. I will check the latest guidance soon enough. I just want to know your thoughts for tomorrow in terms of storms, Sully. Also I saw the Transformers movie in the theater tonight and it literally blew my mind. Constant action, courtesy of Michael Bay.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 246 Comments: 3970
11. TheShovler3
2:14 AM GMT on June 26, 2009
The storms really fizzled out here...
Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2579
10. JFLORIDA
1:12 AM GMT on June 26, 2009
Ok Sully all ready here.



OH! RAINGEAR! Crap!


Thanks for the Ice update. We are running out of time.
Member Since: May 22, 2006 Posts: 188 Comments: 24743
9. TheShovler3
1:08 AM GMT on June 26, 2009
The storms are approaching from the west. Looks to be a pretty good event just north of here.
Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2579
6. listenerVT
11:04 PM GMT on June 25, 2009
Watch out what you wish for...

We have had more sun than you to the south of VT have had.
And today we are ROASTING!
88 degrees and wicked humid. Blah!

Just saw that line of storms and HAD to come by to see how everyone is faring.
Make sure your camera batteries are charged! :~)


LakeShadow...I think he really does want it to be a more exciting storm setup.
After all, weather forecasters live for wild weather...
as long as it's someone else's, of course.

Heh.

Take care! ♥
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5542
5. sullivanweather
8:52 PM GMT on June 25, 2009
The past couple long range GFS model runs are almost ridiculous.

As in winter, almost any model run will show a big snowstorm in the week 2 time frame. In summer, most model runs will show one of those +21°C 850mb temp heat waves somewhere within that 16 day period. We're lucky to get to 15°C @850mb in the last several model runs. Not to mention when it gets close it has been accompanied by precipitation.

Imagine if that 4 day stretch in April ends up being the hottest stretch of the year?
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
4. NEwxguy
8:40 PM GMT on June 25, 2009
this weather has been so bad sulli,gotta just laugh,sure could use some summer weather,but doesn't look in the cards.Hope everything is going good with you down in Jersey.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 887 Comments: 15965
3. sullivanweather
8:33 PM GMT on June 25, 2009
Quoting NEwxguy:
Here in eastern mass. we have reports of a strange bright object in the air late this afternoon,some even hinted it might be the sun.



LOLOL!!

Stop playin' games, yo! You crazy...
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
2. NEwxguy
8:29 PM GMT on June 25, 2009
Here in eastern mass. we have reports of a strange bright object in the air late this afternoon,some even hinted it might be the sun.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 887 Comments: 15965
1. LakeShadow
5:10 PM GMT on June 25, 2009
Nasty line of storms headed my way.

Check this out...the NWS discussion for KBUF:
WHILE WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AREN`T QUITE AS STRONG
AS WHAT I WOULD NORMALLY LIKE TO SEE FOR A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
OUTBREAK WITH MAX WINDS IN THE SFC-500 MB LAYER GENERALLY RUNNING
35-45 KNOTS...THESE SHOULD STILL BE PLENTY STRONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW
FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE PULSE STORMS/BOWING LINE SEGMENTS TO
DEVELOP...


does he WANT damaging wind gusts??
Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 2134

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About sullivanweather

Thomas is an avid weather enthusiast, landscaper and organic gardener. This blog is dedicated to Northeast and tropical weather forecasting. Enjoy!

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