Thanksgiving weather; Another winter storm Sunday/Monday?

By: sullivanweather , 9:20 AM GMT on November 27, 2008

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Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings

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Forecast Discussion



Synopsis - Issued 11/27 @4:20am



Lake enhanced snow showers will linger through Thanksgiving as the pesky upper low that has brought unsettled weather to the Northeast over the last several days slowly rotates north towards Hudson Bay. A weak clipper blows by the region on Black Friday with light showery precipitation mainly confined to the North Country then a possible winter storm will move up the Eastern Seaboard as a deep trough carves out over the Ohio Valley late this weekend into early next week.


Short-term - Issued 11/27 @4:20am



Vertically stacked low pressure over southern Ontario will finally begin to move north today, away from the Northeast, but we will still feel some of the fringe effects of this system as lake enhanced snow showers continue across upstate New York in cold, moist cyclonic flow. Areas in and around the Adirondacks and St.Lawrence River Valley/Thousand Island region remain under lake effect snow warnings/advisories as anywhere from 3-10 inches of snow can be expected between the time of this writing and late tonight. The Niagara Frontier will also see some lake enhanced snow showers but accumulations will be much lighter, on the order of an inch or two, as deeper moisture has left this region and the air aloft warms, reducing lake induced instabilities. Additional flurries and snow showers extend over central New York and north-central Pennsylvania but these won’t amount to anything more than a dusting and should end by the late morning. Elsewhere across the region skies will be party to mostly clouds, meaning that there will be some periods of sunshine for the first time in many days for some areas. Temperatures will still run near to slightly below normal. Highs will range from the 30’s across the interior, with 40’s across the interior river valleys, such as the Hudson, Susquehanna and Connecticut, as well as along the coastal plain. A few locations may even may the low 50’s across southern New Jersey and extreme southeastern Pennsylvania around the Philadelphia area. Winds will be out of the west to west-southwest around 5-10mph.

Lake effect winds down tonight across upstate New York as the remainder of the region stays dry. High clouds will increase after midnight as a fairly weak clipper system drops down out of the Great Lakes region towards the Northeast. Lows will fall into the 20’s across the north, with a few teens in the higher terrain, with 30’s along the coastal plain. Winds will be generally under 5mph.


Aforementioned clipper low slides through the Northeast on Black Friday, bringing nothing more than an increase in mid/high clouds and perhaps a few snow showers to the higher terrain of northern New York and New England. Once again, temperatures will be seasonal, with highs ranging from the 30’s across the north with 40’s across the southern interior and New England coastal plain. From the New York City metropolitan area on south across the I-95 corridor temperatures should crack the 50°F mark once again. Winds will be from a southerly direction at 5-10mph, shifting from the west after an afternoon cold frontal passage around the same speeds.

The moisture-starved clipper is finally able to tap into some Atlantic moisture that could bring an inch or so of snow across Downeast Maine Friday night. A few snow showers may come off the lakes as weak cold air advection drops 850mb temps down to –6 to –8°C, creating marginal/conditional lake instability parameters, but these won’t amount to much. The remainder of the region will see partly cloudy skies. Lows will range from the 20’s across the interior to the 30’s along the coastal plain.

The clipper will be pulling out to sea by Saturday morning, leaving behind fair skies and a continuation of seasonable temperatures. A couple nuisance flurries will dot the Tug Hill Plateau/Adirondacks region but these won’t amount to anything.



Mid-term - Issued 11/27 @4:20am


Lots of uncertainty in the mid-term as a complex interaction of northern and southern stream disturbances will make for a very challenging forecast. Models do agree that there will be some level of phasing between the two branches of the jet, which will ultimately lead to cyclogenesis somewhere across the Southeast, as the northern stream branch of the jet buckles into a deep trough over the Mississippi/Tennessee Valley. What track the low takes from there is where the models are at odds with each other. The GFS is showing more of an inland runner due to a deeper trough and greater phasing, with the rain/snow line pushing into the interior. On the other hand, the ECMWF, GGEM, UKMET models show less phasing and an offshore track to the low pressure. This puts the rain/snow line much further southeast, bringing more snow to the interior, although QPF is much less than the GFS. Bottom line is that a storm will be affecting at least the southern half of the region to close out the holiday weekend and any traveling plans may need to be pushed up a day to Saturday to avoid delays, especially across the interior. Low pressure moves into New England on Monday with the upper trough axis swinging through keeping unsettled weather over the Northeast. Temperatures will return back to slightly below seasonal averages for late November.



Long-term - Issued 11/27 @4:20am


In the long term, the GFS lifts out the trough, bringing a moderating trend to the region on Tuesday and Wednesday before a cold front blasts through the region on Thursday bringing much colder air back over the Northeast for Friday into next weekend. This solution has little support from other global models, which lingers the trough over the region, keeping the cooler air locked over the Northeast. In addition, a clipper system is progged to drop down from Canada by the GGEM/ECMWF, reaching the Northeast by Wednesday bringing renewed chances for snow across the interior and rain to the coastal plain. In fact, both of these models maintain an active storm track across the eastern US the second half of next week into next weekend with plenty of cold air around for wintry precipitation types. Since the models have shown very little consensus beyond next Tuesday I’ll forego mentioning any individual systems until better run to run consistency develops.



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Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar


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Local SST's

Northeast SST's

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2008-09 Winter Forecast

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23. TheShovler3
3:25 AM GMT on November 29, 2008
I saw some today too and it said 39-40 degrees
Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2579
22. TampaFLUSA
12:13 AM GMT on November 29, 2008
Quoting TheShovler3:
i keep telling myself its only November but its looking like we here in dutchess on east through ct and lower mass will be almost all rain. I get this feeling that this might be the MO of winter to come. Kinda like 93 when it would rain most of the time and then hit us with like 40" in one shot.

Don't jinx us {-;, and btw a couple of flurris now and my WS says 41? WTH?
Member Since: June 21, 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 1657
21. TheDawnAwakening
10:26 PM GMT on November 28, 2008
OK sounds good.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 248 Comments: 3970
20. sullivanweather
9:54 PM GMT on November 28, 2008
It will be cold, yes. But merely polar air, nothing arctic.

I think we get a much better cold shot of air at the end of the week.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
19. TheDawnAwakening
9:49 PM GMT on November 28, 2008
thanks. I remember we were talking about a cold air mass coming down after this weekend storm coming through.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 248 Comments: 3970
18. sullivanweather
9:45 PM GMT on November 28, 2008
Dean,

Which one? Which model?

The ECMWF is showing a pretty cold airmass coming down the end of next week but warms us up pretty good beforehand. It has some support from the Canadian, which the GFS is a little more flat with the ridge and a little less robust on the cold.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
17. TheDawnAwakening
9:40 PM GMT on November 28, 2008
What does the big cold airmass look like now on the models?
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 248 Comments: 3970
16. sullivanweather
9:02 PM GMT on November 28, 2008
Dean,

Doesn't look like it. 20-30ish looks to be about as high as the winds will get with this one. It's not particularly potent and will be rather broad. The high off to the northeast isn't strong by any means, eiter.

This is really just a run-of-the-mill storm. I think there's been alot of talk about it because it's expected to be widespread and occur on a big travel day.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
15. TheDawnAwakening
8:59 PM GMT on November 28, 2008
Will there be any storms, or high winds?
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 248 Comments: 3970
14. sullivanweather
8:29 PM GMT on November 28, 2008
Shovler,

Yup. We had two fo them that year. The infamous 'Superstorm' and the 'Downslope nor'easter'.

Both storms were generational events. The Superstorm for just about everybody and the December 1992 storm for the flooding it caused in NYC and that one also had a tremendously snowy side of things with locations in the Berkshires picking up to 3' of snow.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
13. TheShovler3
8:24 PM GMT on November 28, 2008
i keep telling myself its only November but its looking like we here in dutchess on east through ct and lower mass will be almost all rain. I get this feeling that this might be the MO of winter to come. Kinda like 93 when it would rain most of the time and then hit us with like 40" in one shot.
Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2579
12. sullivanweather
6:45 PM GMT on November 28, 2008
Good afternoon, Blizz!

well, maybe for the coastal plain and lower elevations...

Once far enough inland, us folks would beg to differ. Could be a pretty good icing event from NE PA into the Catskills and central New England north of the Mass Pike.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
11. Zachary Labe
6:32 PM GMT on November 28, 2008
sullivanweather- Well not really looking like a big bang to start off the meteorological winter.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15145
10. sullivanweather
5:55 PM GMT on November 28, 2008
Champ,

The models have trended a bit warmer, so it's looking like a snow to mix to rain scenario (aside from some local influences which may tend to keep the mix) for many inland locales within 200 miles of the coast.


As for you over there in connecticut, I think you get a brief period of snow at the onset, adding up to maybe an inch before it changes over to a brief period of sleet and freezing rain, then quickly over to rain as warm air floods over the region east of the Hudson Valley. Right now it looks like your 850mb temperatures climb well above 3°C, which is usually the key temperature in turning frozen/freezing precip over to liquid, especially w/o any type of arctic airmass ahead of the system in place.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
9. sullivanweather
5:49 PM GMT on November 28, 2008
Tampa,

We both correctly called the storm, but the difference is that you were putting much more faith in the lead shortwave, currently moving through the South. I put more emphasis on the trailing shortwave, which is what will ultimately form the coastal...err...double barrel eastern US storm.

Shown here in my forecast discussion from 11/20...

Forecast Discussion - Issued 11/20 @3:00am


The big shopping weekend also looks to be in jeopardy as the longwave trough over the Northeast buckles once again as another potent northern stream disturbance is progged to drop down the backside of the trough as the relentless wintry weather pattern continues on.



Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
8. cchamp6
5:19 PM GMT on November 28, 2008
Hey Sully,

Any new information on the upcoming storm?
Member Since: December 21, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 2116
7. TampaSpin
4:01 AM GMT on November 28, 2008
Looks like the Winter Storm we was debating is coming together and could be a very large system. Holiday travel problems coming. Hope you had a great Thanksgiving......im stuffed....LOL
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20450
5. shoreacres
7:06 PM GMT on November 27, 2008
Happy Thanksgiving, Sully!

Hope your day is absolutely wonderful!

Member Since: October 4, 2004 Posts: 205 Comments: 15288
4. TheShovler3
7:02 PM GMT on November 27, 2008
HAPPY THANKSGIVING! Lets go for snow!
Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2579
3. TheDawnAwakening
1:54 PM GMT on November 27, 2008
Happy Thanksgiving Sully and here's to a snowstorm.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 248 Comments: 3970
2. Raysfan70
12:05 PM GMT on November 27, 2008
Good Morning {{Sully and Family}}!
HaPpY ThAnKsGiViNg!

MyHotComments.com

Rays,Wobbie and Boys
Member Since: July 28, 2005 Posts: 138 Comments: 57354
1. sullivanweather
9:31 AM GMT on November 27, 2008
I wish everyone a very happy and safe Thanksgiving!

Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612

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Thomas is an avid weather enthusiast, landscaper and organic gardener. This blog is dedicated to Northeast and tropical weather forecasting. Enjoy!

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