Thomas is an avid weather enthusiast, landscaper and organic gardener. This blog is dedicated to Northeast and tropical weather forecasting. Enjoy!
By: sullivanweather , 3:00 PM GMT on August 05, 2008
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Synopsis - Issued 8/05 @11:00am
A trough approaching from the west will bring an increase in clouds and precipitation to New York and Pennsylvania today while most of New England finally dries out. This trough will move through the Northeast on Wednesday and slow its eastward progress as additional energy dips down the trough's backside. Highly meridional flow develops the second half of this week into the weekend with a trough in the East and a ridge over the Four Corners States. This pattern will feature a cool and unsettled pattern heading into this weekend as it will feel rather autumn-like across the region. This trough finally begins to lift by next Monday with a return to seasonable early to mid August weather.
Short-term - Issued 8/05 @11:00am
The morning has begun mostly cloudy over the northern half of New England with mainly clear skies to the southwest over western New England and central/eastern New York. Skies cloud over once again towards western Pennsylvania as leftovers from last night's severe convection over the Ohio Valley/Midwest, which are now just scattered showers and thundershowers, roll into the region this morning. These showers will continue to push towards the southeast along a warm front draped over Pennsylvania. By this afternoon, once the clouds break and a little insolation occurs, convection will fire up along this warm front once again. The airmass on the south side of the warm front is very sticky. Yesterday many locations in the Mid-Mississippi Valley region had heat indices over 110°F and sbCAPE values of 6,000J/kg+! While this type of heat/instability won’t make it this far northeast, a portion of it will. mlCAPE values rise to 1,500-2,000J/kg south of the warm front, ~1,000J/kg along and just to the north. As spokes of mid-level energy ride down from the Great Lakes along the warm front convection will be triggered. Bulk shear will range from 30-40kts over this region as well in a unidirectional west-northwesterly flow. This could lead to an organized line segment of storms or two, but most will be scattered multi-clusters and isolated supercells given the 150-200% of normal precipitable water values and a 30kt low-level flow punching into the frontal region with a sharp drop off in the low-level flow on the north side of the front. With increased 0-1km helicity from the warm front being in the area I wouldn’t be surprised to see an isolated tornado drop down somewhere either. Further northeast the weather will be more benign as much of eastern New York and western New England see mostly sunny skies and seasonable temperatures. A few isolated terrain enhanced showers may still pop up over Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine but most of the day will be spent under fair weather cumulus clouds. High here are likely to remain in the 70’s with a few 60’s in the higher terrain.
The warm front continues to push northeast this evening but will begin to occlude as a cold front rapidly descends into the region. Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage over eastern/central New York and western New England with the increased low level forcing associated with the frontal boundaries. mlCAPE will be modest, generally 250-750J/kg and the core of strongest winds will be pushing off the Delmarva Coast, so severe weather will be unlikely. Drier air moving in behind the front will end precipitation chances over western New York and the southwestern 2/3’s of Pennsylvania. The eastern half of New England will also escape the precipitation during the overnight. Lows will range from the 50’s over northern New England to the 60’s across the rest of the interior. Along the coastal plain temperatures should remain in the upper 60 to low 70’s.
As the deep layer trough over the Northeast tilts negative tomorrow it will slow its eastward progression. Showers and thundershowers will continue over New England while most locales to the west dry out. Rainfall amounts over New England will total 1-2” and may lead to sharp rises of area rivers given all the recent rainfall. There’s a slight chance some afternoon thunderstorms will fire up from the southern Adirondacks to the Catskills, Hudson Valley, Taconics, Berkshires, and Litchfield Hills of Connecticut. Leftover low-level moisture, diurnal heating and favorable placement in left exit region of a 120kt jet streak may induce some isolated afternoon convection. Temperatures will remain near to slightly above seasonable levels behind the front as 850mb temps range from 13-17°C with decent mixing and near full sun. Under the clouds and precipitation over New England temperatures will likely remain in the 60’s north, 70’s south.
Mid-term - Issued 8/05 @11:00am
Core of the cold pool/upper trough move into the northern Great Lakes Friday, into Southern Ontario Saturday and over the Northeast by Sunday. Impossible to time disturbances rounding the base of this trough carved out over eastern North America will set off showers and thunderstorm, which will be most prevalent during the afternoon hours due to diurnal influences. Severe threat looks minimal at this point in time, although by the weekend as the cold pool aloft becomes better situated over the region, the threat for small hail will increase. Temperatures will begin the period near normal but will drop to below normal levels for early August by the weekend.
Long-term - Issued 8/05 @11:00am
The long term begins with the deep trough still carved out over the East Coast. Low pressure will form over the western Atlantic and move into the Canadian Maritimes spreading moisture back into the upper trough axis over northern New York and New England, keeping the threat for precipitation going into early next week there. Further south and west, over the remainder of New York, Pennsylvania and New Jersey is should be rather pleasant. The precipitation should come to an end, leaving behind mainly fair skies (afternoon cumulus development) and close to seasonable temperatures for daily highs, although the nighttime temperatures should fall below normal. Good sleeping weather!
Radar: Northeast Region Loop
Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.
August Daily Weather Statistics
August 1st - 79°F/57°F....0.00"....60%
August 2nd - 75°F/59°F....0.52"....40%
August 3rd - 75°F/55°F....0.09"....50%
August 4th - 76°F/57°F....0.00"....75%
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