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Early taste of Autumn this weekend

By: sullivanweather , 3:00 PM GMT on August 05, 2008

Storm reports last 72 hours. Click on map to view individual reports.


storm reports




Northern New England storm reports


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Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings

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Regional Forecast


Synopsis - Issued 8/05 @11:00am


A trough approaching from the west will bring an increase in clouds and precipitation to New York and Pennsylvania today while most of New England finally dries out. This trough will move through the Northeast on Wednesday and slow its eastward progress as additional energy dips down the trough's backside. Highly meridional flow develops the second half of this week into the weekend with a trough in the East and a ridge over the Four Corners States. This pattern will feature a cool and unsettled pattern heading into this weekend as it will feel rather autumn-like across the region. This trough finally begins to lift by next Monday with a return to seasonable early to mid August weather.


Short-term - Issued 8/05 @11:00am


The morning has begun mostly cloudy over the northern half of New England with mainly clear skies to the southwest over western New England and central/eastern New York. Skies cloud over once again towards western Pennsylvania as leftovers from last night's severe convection over the Ohio Valley/Midwest, which are now just scattered showers and thundershowers, roll into the region this morning. These showers will continue to push towards the southeast along a warm front draped over Pennsylvania. By this afternoon, once the clouds break and a little insolation occurs, convection will fire up along this warm front once again. The airmass on the south side of the warm front is very sticky. Yesterday many locations in the Mid-Mississippi Valley region had heat indices over 110°F and sbCAPE values of 6,000J/kg+! While this type of heat/instability won’t make it this far northeast, a portion of it will. mlCAPE values rise to 1,500-2,000J/kg south of the warm front, ~1,000J/kg along and just to the north. As spokes of mid-level energy ride down from the Great Lakes along the warm front convection will be triggered. Bulk shear will range from 30-40kts over this region as well in a unidirectional west-northwesterly flow. This could lead to an organized line segment of storms or two, but most will be scattered multi-clusters and isolated supercells given the 150-200% of normal precipitable water values and a 30kt low-level flow punching into the frontal region with a sharp drop off in the low-level flow on the north side of the front. With increased 0-1km helicity from the warm front being in the area I wouldn’t be surprised to see an isolated tornado drop down somewhere either. Further northeast the weather will be more benign as much of eastern New York and western New England see mostly sunny skies and seasonable temperatures. A few isolated terrain enhanced showers may still pop up over Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine but most of the day will be spent under fair weather cumulus clouds. High here are likely to remain in the 70’s with a few 60’s in the higher terrain.

The warm front continues to push northeast this evening but will begin to occlude as a cold front rapidly descends into the region. Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage over eastern/central New York and western New England with the increased low level forcing associated with the frontal boundaries. mlCAPE will be modest, generally 250-750J/kg and the core of strongest winds will be pushing off the Delmarva Coast, so severe weather will be unlikely. Drier air moving in behind the front will end precipitation chances over western New York and the southwestern 2/3’s of Pennsylvania. The eastern half of New England will also escape the precipitation during the overnight. Lows will range from the 50’s over northern New England to the 60’s across the rest of the interior. Along the coastal plain temperatures should remain in the upper 60 to low 70’s.

As the deep layer trough over the Northeast tilts negative tomorrow it will slow its eastward progression. Showers and thundershowers will continue over New England while most locales to the west dry out. Rainfall amounts over New England will total 1-2” and may lead to sharp rises of area rivers given all the recent rainfall. There’s a slight chance some afternoon thunderstorms will fire up from the southern Adirondacks to the Catskills, Hudson Valley, Taconics, Berkshires, and Litchfield Hills of Connecticut. Leftover low-level moisture, diurnal heating and favorable placement in left exit region of a 120kt jet streak may induce some isolated afternoon convection. Temperatures will remain near to slightly above seasonable levels behind the front as 850mb temps range from 13-17°C with decent mixing and near full sun. Under the clouds and precipitation over New England temperatures will likely remain in the 60’s north, 70’s south.


Mid-term - Issued 8/05 @11:00am


Core of the cold pool/upper trough move into the northern Great Lakes Friday, into Southern Ontario Saturday and over the Northeast by Sunday. Impossible to time disturbances rounding the base of this trough carved out over eastern North America will set off showers and thunderstorm, which will be most prevalent during the afternoon hours due to diurnal influences. Severe threat looks minimal at this point in time, although by the weekend as the cold pool aloft becomes better situated over the region, the threat for small hail will increase. Temperatures will begin the period near normal but will drop to below normal levels for early August by the weekend.


Long-term - Issued 8/05 @11:00am


The long term begins with the deep trough still carved out over the East Coast. Low pressure will form over the western Atlantic and move into the Canadian Maritimes spreading moisture back into the upper trough axis over northern New York and New England, keeping the threat for precipitation going into early next week there. Further south and west, over the remainder of New York, Pennsylvania and New Jersey is should be rather pleasant. The precipitation should come to an end, leaving behind mainly fair skies (afternoon cumulus development) and close to seasonable temperatures for daily highs, although the nighttime temperatures should fall below normal. Good sleeping weather!



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Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar


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Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.



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August Daily Weather Statistics

August 1st - 79°F/57°F....0.00"....60%
August 2nd - 75°F/59°F....0.52"....40%
August 3rd - 75°F/55°F....0.09"....50%
August 4th - 76°F/57°F....0.00"....75%

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164. Fshhead
6:50 AM GMT on August 09, 2008
Man held in Fla. for threatening Obama's life

Figures this went down here in my stupid state!
Seems like when anything bad happens there is always a Fla. connection. LOL
Member Since: November 19, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 9960
163. cchamp6
2:09 AM GMT on August 09, 2008
Excellent! Thanks for the help with garden. I am having such a good time growing everything this year and I cant wait till next spring to make my garden bigger.

My onions if you recall were planted wrong. I transplanted some and they are ok. The rest are f ed up or dead.

Brussel sprouts are growing like crazy. My wife loves them. I would say my favorite crop this season was brocolli. I wish I had planted more of it. I am going to plant some more this weekend.
Member Since: December 21, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 2192
162. Zachary Labe
11:54 PM GMT on August 08, 2008
LakeShadow- Exactly that is how my cucumbers are. Quite round with a very short length.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 288 Comments: 15228
161. LakeShadow
11:51 PM GMT on August 08, 2008
yeah my cukes arent so hot, either. Stumpy and roundish.. There's not many about 10 or so are growing..ate one already, another ready to pick, and I planted 6 plants. My Tomatoes are going crazy, though...I have rutgers, Beefsteak and Cherries. I pick about a dozen or so Cherries a day and the beefsteak and Rutgers are getting really big and are starting to turn orange. My brocolli is still plugging out a decent amount the Lettuce bed is very plentiful...the herbs are going crazy... Jalapenio peppers are formed pretty well near picking, but bell peppers are just starting to form. All in all not so bad for my first try at a garden.. The spinach fell victim to the rabbits a while back, oh well...thats all they got!
Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 2134
160. Zachary Labe
11:30 PM GMT on August 08, 2008
cchamp6- Wow, your garden sounds great. Remember that I grew watermelon, well, strange story but the flower nursery sold me the wrong seeds. Instead of watermelon I got eggplant. Very weird.

TheShovler3- 1-2dozen daily, wow!

sullivanweather- What is wrong with my cucumber plant? I have only 3 plants, but yet I have only gotten 3 cucumbers. Ugh, and they take forever to grow.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 288 Comments: 15228
159. sullivanweather
11:06 PM GMT on August 08, 2008
Champ,

What I usually do, especially in a wet pattern, is pick the cherry tomatoes as soon as they show blushing. If it's a more dry pattern, for instance; last August, I leave them on a little longer. What I've found out is that when the pattern is wet the tomatoes fall off early or split. So to prevent that I harvest them early. The beefstakes are completely normal. That's what they do. They're mutants...lol

Sometimes you'll get undeformed tomatoes that'll have very defined lobes and sometimes those lobes are simply deformed or covered in a black or brown crusty skin. That's a beefstake for ya.

You watermelons are fine to be left alone until they're ready to harvest. When they stop growing you'll have to start the knock trick. Which is knocking on the melon and listening to the sound it makes. If it sounds more solid then it's not ripe yet. When you knock on it and it sounds hollow or like you're striking a plastic barrel full of water, then it's ready.

The cucumbers you can pickle too. It works best with the smaller ones that have less seeds. Just mix 1 part water and 1 part vinegar, add pickling spice of your choosing, dill maybe, hot dried peppers perhaps...

They'll be good for 3-4 months, perhaps 6...
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
158. TheShovler3
11:05 PM GMT on August 08, 2008
ooo or gaspacho soup! Cukes are great in those!
Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2579
157. TheShovler3
11:03 PM GMT on August 08, 2008
Champ, Deformation of tomatoes are fine very common in heirloom varieties which are called the uglies but generally taste so much better than beefsteaks.

Second, Cherry tomatoes are very sensitive to wind and such and can drop not really a problem.

Watermelons, I like to take a piece of aluminum foil and put them under each fruit so they don't rot the bottoms out (not that they will but just a precaution) Watermelons are ripe when the bottom side turns yellowish or the stem at the top of the melon turns brownish and spindly.

Lastly pickling cukes are relatively easy and preserve as much as you possibly can. They go fast and furious! I have 14 plants and pick about 1-2 dozen daily!
Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2579
156. sullivanweather
10:59 PM GMT on August 08, 2008
I just got in from one last garden trip. I finally got the vagrant beefstake bed strung up with twine around 6 plastic coated metal rods. I also too a ton of pics so I'll have them uploaded soon.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
155. cchamp6
10:29 PM GMT on August 08, 2008
Oh yeah, one more thing. Friggin cucumbers!!! I planted 3 plants thinking, "oh they wont produce too much". OK I may have miscalulated this. I just hauled in 12 after I got 8 two days ago. And it looks like Ill have a dozen more in a few days. Thats just ridiculous. What the hell do I do with that many?? Can I pickle them? My kids eat them like candy, but they are in upstate NY.
Member Since: December 21, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 2192
154. cchamp6
10:25 PM GMT on August 08, 2008
Blizz,

Did you hit the lottery?

Sully,

Gardening question time! I have 3 cherry tomato plants that are putting out a ridiculous amount. The problem I have is when they are just ripe, they seem to fall off. Is this normal?
I also have 9 beef steaks? The tomatoes are the size of friggin grapefruits and somewhat deformed, is this normal?

Last question. I have 3 watermelon plants going and they are going wild. They are producing fruits that seem to double in size every day. When will I know they ready for harvest? And do I need to do anything to protect them or make them grow bigger?

I think I am going to hit the nursey tomorrow and plant a few fall crops. You are getting me all jacked up to grow some more stuff!!
Member Since: December 21, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 2192
153. TheShovler3
10:14 PM GMT on August 08, 2008
there a nice line forming west of you up through delaware county. Hope that thing doesn't explode like it did the other day before it reaches near this are.

Look at you and all the second planting!

I wish i had enough room! Land will be a large focal point in my house search as well as the kitchen since those are the areas i'll spend most of my time.
Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2579
152. sullivanweather
10:04 PM GMT on August 08, 2008
That's in addition to 3 15' rows of carrots I planted a few days ago and two 6' rows of snow peas and another 2-3' section of a curly leafed spinach I planted yesterday.

Hopefully I'll get a nice second season harvest.

Oh, I also planted a large bed of red-leafed romaine lettuce, a heat tolerant type - Rosalita.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
151. sullivanweather
10:02 PM GMT on August 08, 2008
I just got done planting one 10' row of New Zealand spinach, 2 hills of broccoli that'll hold 4-6 plants, and one wide row of bloomsdale long standing spinach that's about 5' long but wide enough for 2 rows once thinned.

I'm also going to put in some bush beans in a 4-6' section seperating the corn from the tomatos and hope to have some ready by the first fall frost.

Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
150. sullivanweather
9:58 PM GMT on August 08, 2008
I have a decent cell heading right for me right now.

On BGM radar: V5 56 dBZ 9,000 ft. 14 kg/m² 0% chance 0% chance 0.00 in. 16 knots
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
149. TheShovler3
9:45 PM GMT on August 08, 2008
I was all set to say most of the storms were done for today but with 1.5 hrs more of sun and the amount of storms to the north west and west i have to fashion a guess that we aren't done for today.
Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2579
148. Zachary Labe
9:34 PM GMT on August 08, 2008
sullivanweather- Lol, I like to travel. Last year I was in 13 states and Cancun, Mexico. Next year already I have one trip planned to Italy and Greece.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 288 Comments: 15228
147. sullivanweather
9:27 PM GMT on August 08, 2008
Blizz,

Sounds awesome!!

You're traveling everywhere this summer...

Florida, Mt.Washington, Accuweather, Oswego...LOL

I hope you bought some carbon credits...haha
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
146. Zachary Labe
9:19 PM GMT on August 08, 2008
sullivanweather- Herbs here are out of control. My basil plant is also about 1.5ft tall. Also the parsley is turning into a bush it is so large. Other herbs are pretty small.

On a side note I just scheduled a tour to see the Accuweather building in State College for next week. Should be pretty interesting. I will be sure to write a blog entry about my experience and take some pictures!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 288 Comments: 15228
145. sullivanweather
9:15 PM GMT on August 08, 2008
Blizz,

Oh, I can't wait for those dinners.

Chicken, potatoes, greens, winter squash...

I'm going to have such a big harvest this fall.

Pasta and sauce too!

I usually have giant tubs of sauce to make once I start getting overwhelmed with tomatoes. Plus I have a growing herb garden in the bottom bed of the garden.

Right now there's sage, oregano, flat parsley. I also have lots of 1-2' tall basil plants between my tomatoes.

The corn too! I can't forget about that! All the corn is 6-7' tall now! It's really grown huge this last week-10days
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
144. Zachary Labe
8:53 PM GMT on August 08, 2008
sullivanweather- I like parsnip too. Many people do not though. Lol, already have had the roast chicken meal with thanksgiving style sides. I am ready for Autumn now.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 288 Comments: 15228
143. Fshhead
8:52 PM GMT on August 08, 2008
Allright Y'all Bills a callin.
Good Luck tonite in the game Sull!!!!

PEACE!!
Member Since: November 19, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 9960
142. Fshhead
8:50 PM GMT on August 08, 2008
LOL Hmmm good point never thought of that!
Well I guess the blog author would have to be the one in control??
*sniff* I miss my larger blue font.....
Member Since: November 19, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 9960
141. sullivanweather
8:48 PM GMT on August 08, 2008
Fish,

A font tool would be awesome. To use in the blog entries and not the comment section, though. You know a troll will put the font on like 100 and do something like "fkadflbasfb;bgf;abdfbasdbvadsk.b" and stretch a blog to death.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
140. sullivanweather
8:46 PM GMT on August 08, 2008
Blizz,

Hell yeah! Bring a jacket, that's for sure...lol

This weather is really getting me into autumn mode. We even went out a got a whole chicken this week when we went food shopping to bake it in the oven. A nice roasted chicken dinner then use the leftovers to make soup with some garden veggies.

Potatos are ready, carrots, scallions, celery, greens, parlsey, dill, a few tomatoes.

Only thing I need to get from the store is some turnip and parsnip.

Hmmm...


Maybe I'll grow some parsnip in that bed for spring harvest...

I LOVE parsnip.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
139. Fshhead
8:43 PM GMT on August 08, 2008
Yea Blizz I agree! Yea when they made the change last year, I was not able to get my font color back into my blog. You can now but, its still a hassle. That is one thing I would like, a font tool!!
Member Since: November 19, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 9960
138. Zachary Labe
8:41 PM GMT on August 08, 2008
sullivanweather- I am headed up to Oswego, NY for Sunday and Monday to due some lake fishing. Should be pretty cold!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 288 Comments: 15228
137. Zachary Labe
8:40 PM GMT on August 08, 2008
When are they going to add some new blog features? That is what I would like to see.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 288 Comments: 15228
136. sullivanweather
8:40 PM GMT on August 08, 2008
Blizz,

LOL

After we got thast shower it got down to 63...

Now we're 67 also. This stinks. It's felt like fall here 4 of the last 5 days. Looks like it'll be kinda the same tomorrow (less rain, a little warming) but Sunday it'll be even worse as the core of the upper low moves overhead. It may not even make it to 70 here that day (it was 72 here earlier today so we at least hit 70 today).
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
135. Fshhead
8:38 PM GMT on August 08, 2008
Yea Sully, that one was not "too" bad. This new look I am really having a hard time getting used to...

I am just hoping that this new look is STABLE!!!
We are heading into the heart of the season & I really hope that this site does not crash like it has lately!!!
Member Since: November 19, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 9960
134. sullivanweather
8:35 PM GMT on August 08, 2008
Fish,

Remember when they changed everything around last year? lol

Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
133. Zachary Labe
8:34 PM GMT on August 08, 2008
It is a toasty 67degree August day (4:30pm) here in the southcentral Pennsylvania mountains, lol.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 288 Comments: 15228
132. sullivanweather
8:33 PM GMT on August 08, 2008
We got this new kid up, Daniel Murphy. He's 7 for his first 14 with 3 RBI.

He has a really nice swing. Makes good sharp contact. I'm sure he'll get in a game during the series.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
131. Fshhead
8:31 PM GMT on August 08, 2008
Blizz, I think the old one just needed some new coloring & it would have been fine.
Oh Well, still trying to get used to it. lol
Member Since: November 19, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 9960
130. sullivanweather
8:30 PM GMT on August 08, 2008
I think the new look is much more modern and in tune with other major weather websites that also have a modern appeal.

I thought that having things like subscribers pics on top of the page is one of the things that gave this site its charm...lol
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
129. Fshhead
8:29 PM GMT on August 08, 2008
Tell you what bro'
Mets better try & pitch around Hermida as much as possible. Ever since he was mentioned in that Manny deal he has been on a tear!
& of course Popeye!! He's coming out of the all-star fiasco lol
Member Since: November 19, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 9960
128. TheShovler3
8:28 PM GMT on August 08, 2008
the new site sucks man!.... I have been picking tomatoes consistently, i just think this might be a year where i don't get that many. I think its a lot to do with the weather. Too much rain has lead to some end rot and hail hurt some of the good ones. Fortunately i planted 24 plants so that should even them out some. Last year i picked by the tray, this year im' picking by 1's and 2's

Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2579
127. Zachary Labe
8:26 PM GMT on August 08, 2008
sullivanweather- .1inches of rain here with the last shower. It is amazing because in winter lake effect snow showers get about as far southeast as my location and then weaken. This is exactly what is happening to the rain showers.

Fshhead- I do not know. I thought the old layout was really outdated looking. I think the new look is much more modern and in tune with other major weather websites that also have a modern appeal.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 288 Comments: 15228
126. sullivanweather
8:24 PM GMT on August 08, 2008
Wright is awesome.

Sucks that they blew it for Santana again. 6th time this year, tied with Lincecum for the lead in no decisions when leaving with the lead.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
125. Fshhead
8:22 PM GMT on August 08, 2008
Yea Sully,
Gonna be some good games as usual LOL
Nice win yesterday BTW!!!!!!!
Man what a shot to end it!
Member Since: November 19, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 9960
124. sullivanweather
8:21 PM GMT on August 08, 2008
Me too. I liked the strip picture on the top of the page instead of the thumbnail on the side (where our nifty little menu used to be)
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
123. sullivanweather
8:20 PM GMT on August 08, 2008
Fish,

We're playing tonight!!

We're facing some good pitchers too.

Nolasco is going tonight. Johnson is pitching Sunday I think and Olsen (who always kilss us; except for the last start) tomorrow.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
122. Fshhead
8:19 PM GMT on August 08, 2008
Hey how do you guys like the new look to the site? Personally I liked the other better.
Member Since: November 19, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 9960
121. sullivanweather
8:18 PM GMT on August 08, 2008
Blizz,

Same thing here. Only some shmizzle but man those clouds were dark. I was out preparing a bed for more broccoli and spinach or beets and got chased in.

So I decided to take a break, have some chips and dip, get online and watch a little tv...lol
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
120. Fshhead
8:17 PM GMT on August 08, 2008
Blizz & Shovler,
G'afternoon! The vids were pretty cool. I liked the one with the women talking, with the horses right there oblivious..
Member Since: November 19, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 9960
119. sullivanweather
8:15 PM GMT on August 08, 2008
Shovler,

That sucks, man.

I wish I could send you one of my plants. They're about 6' tall now with dozens of fruits on them. No reds yet on the big plants but I started getting cherries and have picked about 2 dozen of them and a couple romas.

I have a bunch of vagrant beefstakes that are about 2' tall right now. Skinny and such from only getting about 6 hours of sun and growing amongst 15 other buddies. I think I'm going to make another bed and spread those out some. We'll see...
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
118. Fshhead
8:14 PM GMT on August 08, 2008
Ohhh & those INTERNETS with their fancy pipes can be a challenge too!!!! LMAO
Member Since: November 19, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 9960
117. Fshhead
8:13 PM GMT on August 08, 2008
Yea Sully,
They can be weird indeed!! LOL
Glad ya got it going!
Member Since: November 19, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 9960
116. TheShovler3
8:13 PM GMT on August 08, 2008
Awesome vids champ. thanks for the links.
Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2579
115. Zachary Labe
8:11 PM GMT on August 08, 2008
Nice rain shower just moved through. Looked all too much like a snow squall would in the winter. Just amazing it is only August!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 288 Comments: 15228
114. sullivanweather
8:09 PM GMT on August 08, 2008
Hey Fish!

It's working better now that it's been on for an hour or so. I guess it needed to get its connections back in order or something. I dunno.

Hopefully this lasts. I have a window fan under the laptop now to cool it off while it's in use and it seems to be working great. So now it's just a matter of getting one of those pads. I just think it was clogged with dust or something. When Kate called the HP guy he said they sometimes shut themselves off as a safety precaution when the system isn't cooling itself off properly. So we took it apart and blew dust off the hardware. Since then it hasn't done the weird start-up stuff and now that it's been in use for a little bit it's back up to speed.

Weird machines.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612

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Thomas is an avid weather enthusiast, landscaper and organic gardener. This blog is dedicated to Northeast and tropical weather forecasting. Enjoy!

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