Flooding expected/Hurricane Dolly update

By: sullivanweather , 10:06 AM GMT on July 23, 2008

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Tropical Update



Dolly



Latest satellite image of Tropical Storm Dolly.


Tuesday afternoon update

Dolly now a hurricane.

At the 5pm EDT (Tuesday) National hurricane Center advisory the center of Hurricane Dolly was located at 24.6°N 95.3°W, or about 165 miles east-southeast of Brownsville, Texas. Maximum sustained winds are around 75mph and the minimum estimated central pressure is 986mb. Previous reasoning from this morning applies to the current forecast.


Tuesday morning update

At the 5am EDT (Tuesday) National hurricane Center advisory the center of Tropical Storm Dolly was located at 23.3°N 93.8°W, or about 295 miles southeast of Brownsville, Texas. Maximum sustained winds are around 60mph and the minimum estimated central pressure is 997mb. Dolly is moving to the west at 15mph. Dolly has become much better organized during the overnight, developing a central dense overcast within a structurally improving inner-core. Banding has drastically improved over the northern and western semi-circles and it now appears that Dolly is on the verge of becoming a hurricane. Outflow is excellent in the northern and western quadrants with a well-defined outflow channel noted venting clockwise around the upper ridge over the central Gulf of Mexico down into the Caribbean. Outflow is restricted in the western quadrant and non-existent in the southern quadrant. The upper low the has been hindering Dolly's development thus far is weakening over Old Mexico, allowing for this sudden burst of intensification.

Dolly should continue to intensify over the next 18-24 hours while over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. In fact, Dolly may become a strong category 2 storm at peak intensity. As Dolly approaches the coast oceanic heat content decreases and the cyclone will begin to ingest some dry continental air, likely putting Dolly in a steady state or slight weakening trend in the hours before she comes ashore. Upon moving inland rapid weakening should occur and Dolly should be nothing more than a heavy rain producing tropical depression by late Thursday afternoon.

Dolly should continue on a just north of due west track over the next 6-12 hours. Thereafter a slightly more northerly component to Dolly track should ensue as the storm grows stonger and begins to feel a weakness in the ridge to her north. Dolly should also slow her forward speed to around 10mph or slightly less during the evening into the overnight tonight. It is still expected that Dolly will make landfall over the Rio Grande Valley region along the international border sometime during the day on Wednesday. As Dolly loses her vertical structure after landfall the storm will bend back towards the west in the low-level flow into Old Mexico.

Previous Discussion



At the 8am EDT (Monday) National hurricane Center intermediate advisory the ill-defined center of Tropical Storm Dolly was located at 21.6°N 88.7°W along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Maximum sustained winds are around 50mph and the minimum estimated central pressure is 1005mb. Dolly is moving to the west-northwest at 16mph. Tropical Storm Dolly continues to look very disorganized on satellite imagery with the mid-level center about 40miles west-northwest of the low-level center along the northern coast of the Yucatan. Outflow remains good to the north and east of the cyclone but fair to poor in the southern and western quadrants. The atmosphere surrounding Dolly is quite moist as satellite derived precipitable water soundings are upwards of 2.5". The upper level low which has been moving in tandem with Dolly has also begun to outrun the cyclone. and is now moving towards the west-southwest into the southwestern Bay of Campeche. Given the favorable outflow pattern and highly moist environmental conditions and deep warm waters along her projected path, the only factor holding the storm from intensifying is a poorly-defined inner structure of the storm.

Dolly should gradually get her act together over the next 24 hours as expectations are that she'll finally be able to develop a well-defined center of circulation. Dolly should also slow her forward speed giving the system more time to develop before reaching the Rio Grande River Valley region. In all likelihood Dolly will become a hurricane by Tuesday evening or early Wednesday morning and make landfall at hurricane strength Wednesday evening. Dolly should continue on her west-northwest track right up until landfall then bend to the west as it moves under the upper level ridge over the southern Plains. Despite drought conditions which have persisted since last autumn over the Rio Grande Valley, heavy rains from Dolly combined with recent heavy rains from several tropical waves that have come ashore in this region could lead to flash/river flooding. Moisture from Dolly will eventually become incorporated into the newly dubbed ‘North American Monsoon’ bringing additional rain to the Southwest. This moisture should eventually find the westerlies and could bring MCS activity to the northerntier of the country by next weekend.


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Storm reports last 72 hours. Click on map to view individual reports.


storm reports




Northern New England storm reports


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Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings

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Regional Forecast




High impact rain event for the Northeast is underway. The first in a series of low pressure waves is currently moving through Pennsylvania and New Jersey. This wave is accompanied by a line of strong to severe thunderstorms preceding a large area of heavy rainfall. A classic setup for heavy rain over the Northeast has shaped up as a strong sub-tropical ridge (Bermuda high) builds and moves to a position a few hundred miles south of Newfoundland while a digging upper level trough over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region goes into negative tilt as it slowly pushes east. Shortwaves rounding the base of this trough will spawn several areas of low pressure that will track northward along a nearly stationary surface frontal boundary that will extend from southeastern Pennsylvania to the Lake Champlian region. Deep tropical moisture connection will be present which will enable each of these waves the potential to drop 1-3"of rainfall. Where tracks of heavy rainfall overlap, rainfall total have to potential to drop close to a half foot of rain with locally higher amounts. This amount of rain falling in a 36-48 hour period will lead to flooding concerns of both flash flooding and river flooding.


Instead of trying to concentrate on each wave I'll just give a general overview of the synoptic set-up and let the chips fall where they may. Trying to pinpoint exact times and locations in such events where a large area stands to see the potential for flooding rains is nonsensical and, quite frankly, a waste of time.

Focus will be on the severe threat first since that will be the biggest initial threat. mlCAPE values over eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey and eastern New York are in the 500-1,200J/kg range, so the atmosphere is still plenty unstable even at what should normally be diurnal min. Vertical shear ranges from 30-40kts across this region as well, leading to storm organization and maintenance along a line of storms moving north through Pennsylvania and backbuilding cells just south of Lake Ontario in New York. Triggers for these cells are the remnants of an old frontal boundary across New York and a rapidly northeastward advancing 500mb shortwave pulling through Pennsylvania. Severe threat comes from a 40-50kt 500mb flow out of the southwest that any of the stronger cells should easily be able to transfer to the surface. Combined with anomalously cold temperatures at 500mb (-11 to -13°C) not only will severe wind gusts be a threat, but also nickel-sized hail. Some turning of the mid-level flow due in part to differential vorticity advection will be able to support stronger updrafts adding to the hail threat.

This afternoon, as diurnal effects take place, additional storms will increase in coverage and intensity once again. A train of mid-level impulses will make their way into the Northeast serving as a triggering mechanism for convection. There's a question as to how much insolation will take place to destabilize the atmosphere but at the time thinking is that enough sun should break through to sufficiently create modest instability. Models prog mlCAPE values to approach 1,500-2,000J/kg by afternoon along with 6-7°C/km mid-level lapse rates and 30m height falls @500mb. Deep southerly unidirectional flow along with 30-40kts of bulk shear will promote the development of bowing line segments of storms. However, as the afternoon progresses and the low-level jet increases to ~45kts due to the tightening pressure gradient, development of supercell storms are possible capable of damaging winds and hail, along with the threat of isolated tornados.


As for the heavy rain threat, favorable jet dynamics will play a role in enhancing rain amounts as the region from eastern Pennsylvania to western New England will find itself under the right rear entrance region (and remain there) of a 90-100kt jet maxima over western New York and southern Ontario. In addition, the tightening pressure gradient between the strong ridge over the western Atlantic and the upper trough over the Ohio Valley will increase the southerly low-level jet, helping to transport a deep tropical airmass from the Gulf of Mexico and the tropical western Atlantic over the region. Precipitable water values approach and exceed 2" focusing along the surface frontal boundary and zone of highest 850mb convergence axis. Given the convective nature of the precipitation, rainfall rates will range from 1-2"/hr in the heavier cells, leading to flash flooding problems of creeks, streams and urban areas. Large scale lift/ascent for heavy rainfall will be provided by the many impulses riding north into this tropical airmass, along with the favorable jet dynamics and theta-e ridge forecast to line up with the Hudson River Valley. Orographics will also come into play along the south facing slopes of the Green and Whites, Catskills, Berkshires, Taconics, Adirondacks, Poconos and Litchfield Hills of Connecticut. Rain will come in waves with and out ahead of each impulse moving north in the deep southerly flow. The frontal boundary will slowly push east by Thursday afternoon bringing the heavy rain threat into New England, but by then the frontal boundary, albeit slow. will finally show signs of progression as the ridge over the western Atlantic begins to give way to the slowly advancing trough. Total rainfall from this series of storms will approach 3-6" with locally higher amounts in the hardest hit areas, especially in the areas that will benefit, or in this case suffer, from orographic lift. Outside of this region rainfall amounts of 1-2 are possible with extreme western sections seeing generally under half in inch. Temperatures will be kept near normal given the cloud cover and rainfall with slightly below normal lows and slightly above normal highs. Of note, the NAM model has consistently shown southern New York to receive upwards of 10" of rain with this event. While highly unlikely, this possibility will be closely monitored.



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Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar


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Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.



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July Daily Weather Statistics


July 1st - 75°F/55°F.....Trace....60%
July 2nd - 80°F/54°F.....0.00"....90%
July 3rd - 79°F/54°F.....0.31"....20%
July 4th - 71°F/63°F.....Trace.....5%
July 5th - 80°F/59°F.....0.00"....40%
July 6th - 81°F/63°F.....0.00"....50%
July 7th - 82°F/66°F.....0.00"....50%
July 8th - 84°F/67°F.....0.00"....60%
July 9th - 79°F/64°F.....0.21"....50%
July 10th - 75°F/57°F....0.00"....80%
July 11th - 79°F/52°F....0.00"....70%
July 12th - 86°F/64°F....0.00"....80%
July 13th - 80°F/65°F....0.72"....20%
July 14th - 77°F/63°F....0.03"....80%
July 15th - 79°F/55°F....0.00"....80%
July 16th - 85°F/54°F....0.00"....95%
July 17th - 84°F/60°F....1.18"....60%
July 18th - 88°F/62°F....0.00"....75%
July 19th - 89°F/64°F....0.00"....60%
July 20th - 90°F/65°F....0.52"....60%
July 21st - 82°F/64°F....0.03"....40%
July 22nd - 81°F/59°F....1.12"....40%

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90. LakeShadow
6:05 PM GMT on July 25, 2008
Lost power for a few hours last night..was a few miles North of there when the storms hit but the clouds looked very impressive!

Dont know quite what happened, but something knocked out the juice!
Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 2134
89. crowe1
4:10 PM GMT on July 25, 2008
Listener- I was down at the Lake last night and saw a long line of storms to the east, starting over Saratoga and strung out over Lake Champlain. I did get some pictures but haven't had time to post them yet.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 15 Comments: 953
88. listenerVT
1:01 AM GMT on July 25, 2008
In addition, due to the storm due here within the hour,
I got out the shop vac and got the car all ready for tomorrow's trip.
We are headed to MA (near Boston) to visit my brother and sister-in-law,
then on to a huge Family Reunion on Hubby's side, in Newcastle, NH.

Hoping everyone over that way fared okay in the wildness of weather there!
There was a likely tornado from 10 miles east of Concord, NH to New Durham, including Merrymeeting Lake.
One death, others injured, some houses flattened, a huge mess.
http://www.abcnews.go.com/US/Weather/wireStory?id=5444521#
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5774
87. listenerVT
12:57 AM GMT on July 25, 2008
Impressive lightning and very LOUD thunder.
(Yes, my laptop is unplugged.)
Lots of wind and the rain is a veritable deluge.
{Very cool!}

I checked the radar around 7pm because Hubby was out on Lake Champlain in a sailing race.
When I saw the line of storms coming across from NY, I checked here as well as this website:
http://www.wptz.com/interactive-radar/index.html
...which I also recommend to all of you, as it may start over Burlington, VT, but it's interactive
so you can move it to wherever you need to see.
It shows the storm centers and tells the direction of the storm and how long before it gets to various locales.

So I was able to see that a storm with hail was aiming at the Bay that Hubby was sailing in.
I cell phoned him to warn him and he said they had just begun to wonder about the darkening skies to the west.
The race being just done (haven't yet heard how they fared)
and given my weather update, they elected to motor in rather than go in under sail.
Enroute they rolled the jib and put away the spinnaker,
instead of waiting until they were moored.
So they had gotten in and were walking up the dock when the rain hit.
SWEET! Hurrah for good weather forecasting!
Thanks so much for your site, Sully!
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5774
86. listenerVT
12:50 AM GMT on July 25, 2008
Hey All!

MASSIVE thunderstorm has just started here.
This particular storm cell has the potential to deliver hail,
and it is hitting after dark,
so send good vibes to our gardens!


Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5774
85. TheShovler3
11:48 PM GMT on July 24, 2008
I found an article as i was looking for the current flood situation in delaware and sullivan counties. Its from 1903 about a flood on the Delaware.

Link
Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2579
84. dean2007
11:00 PM GMT on July 24, 2008
Radar to my southwest is as well LakeShadow.
83. LakeShadow
9:21 PM GMT on July 24, 2008
radar's all lit up now... theres a severe tstorm warning just to my South, but I hear thunder, although the radar above my head is clear and its quite dark out there. Kids have been cooped up all day...its like tsing tsing in my house! whoever survives the day wins!
Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 2134
82. cchamp6
8:00 PM GMT on July 24, 2008
Well the predicted rainfall for my area didnt amount. Including yesterday I received .91". There were predictions of possibly over 5". We did get a decent storm last evening around 12. We had about 12 trees come down around town, most with power lines.
Member Since: December 21, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 2116
81. Fshhead
7:51 PM GMT on July 24, 2008
You know you live in Hurricane Alley when:

You walk into the local grocer & they are selling blue tarps along with the usual supplies! LOL
Member Since: November 19, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 9960
80. dean2007
5:53 PM GMT on July 24, 2008
WInds were unimpressive, but there is another storm or line of storms to my south, coming due north. They look like they're coming here. I would like to get some good winds here today. Storms appear to training as another area of convection is developing to my south as well.
79. TheShovler3
5:27 PM GMT on July 24, 2008
good luck with that dean. Hope you get some good storms
Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2579
78. dean2007
5:27 PM GMT on July 24, 2008
Rain clouds are moving in. Its pretty cool looking right now and we look to get smoked right now. Be back on soon! Winds are really picking up some.
77. dean2007
5:14 PM GMT on July 24, 2008
Storms are coming and they appear to be training. WInd gusts are possible. Its very gray to my immediate southwest and south, southwest.
76. TheShovler3
5:10 PM GMT on July 24, 2008
it just poured, and now its SUNNY yeah! woo hoo... the sun does still exist!

total rain for me here is 4.3" Despite what the radar says. .80" On tuesday, 2.65" yesterday Just shy of an inch today
Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2579
75. dean2007
4:50 PM GMT on July 24, 2008
Storms are to my immediate ssw. They appear they could come into my area, but however the storms have been moving mostly just east of due north.
74. LakeShadow
4:44 PM GMT on July 24, 2008
ok looks like its about to let up around here, but a bit of scattered convection headed my way. Still looks like the low hasnt moved, but the convection is weakening. Kids are going stir crazy indoors! I need the weather to clear up!!!
Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 2134
73. TheShovler3
4:30 PM GMT on July 24, 2008
Anyone check the total precip amounts on the albany radar? MAX rain 17.9" between yesterday and today!
Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2579
72. dean2007
4:29 PM GMT on July 24, 2008
crowe1, yeah I hope I get some good winds, however they could miss me to the west.
71. dean2007
4:28 PM GMT on July 24, 2008
Squall line approaching from the SSW looks to miss us to the west for the time being, will need to watch closely later today.
70. crowe1
4:27 PM GMT on July 24, 2008
Good luck Dean, looks like you may get some good wind.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 15 Comments: 953
69. LakeShadow
4:24 PM GMT on July 24, 2008
Woahh...watch out Syracuse and points west of that!!! Nasty band of storms headed your way!!!
Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 2134
68. dean2007
4:22 PM GMT on July 24, 2008
Big cells to my ssw. I hope they come right over me, high winds likely. NWS in Taunton, MA said we will likely have some severe storms due to sunshine.
67. crowe1
4:20 PM GMT on July 24, 2008
.33" at work here in Galway today, and .18" 7 miles to the north at my house.
Wow Lake and James, that doesn't look lke any fun. Interesting to see if they hold together long enough to make it here.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 15 Comments: 953
66. LakeShadow
4:13 PM GMT on July 24, 2008
Quoting jamesmcdermott:
Hailing in my town, Cheektowaga, NY (near Buffalo Airport)... about 1 CM big.. nothing big... lots o lightning though

Hey neighbor! S. Cheektavegas, here!
crazy radar...it looks like we're on the edge of an eyewall and its not moving ANYWHERE! Its that low spinning right over us. Its pretty much stalled out. Don didnt say it would be like this! LOL!

Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 2134
65. Zachary Labe
3:18 PM GMT on July 24, 2008
sullivanweather- Did you see the latest GFS for Sunday? I am not buying it yet, but it shows heavy rain again over the same areas.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15145
64. dean2007
2:26 PM GMT on July 24, 2008
Large storms are now forming to my south, southwest. These look like they aren't messing around. Sully, do you think we could have a severe thunderstorm watch?
63. jamesmcdermott
2:13 PM GMT on July 24, 2008
Hailing in my town, Cheektowaga, NY (near Buffalo Airport)... about 1 CM big.. nothing big... lots o lightning though
62. dean2007
12:37 PM GMT on July 24, 2008
A large area of cumulus clouds is developing to my south or south, southwest. Storms are beginning to fire in this high instability atmosphere over SE MA and southern coastal waters to our immediate south. This could become a long active severe weather day for the eastern MA, RI and CT areas. 5% of tornadoes forming within 10 miles of anyone location. Supercells are possible in a tropical and unstable atmosphere, so we need to pay attention to the NWS and the SPC forecasts. Sully what are your thoughts on such a day for severe weather?
61. dean2007
12:19 PM GMT on July 24, 2008
Lightning was cool last night around 1130pm EDT Wednesday. I heard from Joe Joyce from NECN say there is the possibility for wet microbursts. Is it possible, sully?
60. sullivanweather
12:02 PM GMT on July 24, 2008
It continues...


FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
637 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2008

NYC007-017-025-053-065-077-105-PAC069-103-115-127-241330-
/O.NEW.KBGM.FA.Y.0029.080724T1037Z-080724T1330Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CHENANGO NY-DELAWARE NY-MADISON NY-SULLIVAN NY-OTSEGO NY-BROOME NY-
SUSQUEHANNA PA-LACKAWANNA PA-PIKE PA-ONEIDA NY-WAYNE PA-
637 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
EASTERN CHENANGO COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...
DELAWARE COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...
EASTERN MADISON COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...
SULLIVAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...
OTSEGO COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...
SOUTHEASTERN BROOME COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...
EASTERN SUSQUEHANNA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...
LACKAWANNA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...
PIKE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...
EASTERN ONEIDA COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...
WAYNE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...

* UNTIL 930 AM EDT...

* AT 637 AM EDT DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT SLOW MOVING BANDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING OVER NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA...EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW
YORK. RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO AN INCH PER HOUR MAY OCCUR...WITH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...AND LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS...THIS MORNING. GIVEN RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL...MINOR
FLOODING CAN BE ANTICIPATED.

* LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO BLOOMING
GROVE...CARBONDALE...CLARKS SUMMIT...DICKSON CITY...DUNMORE...
EQUINUNK...GIBSON...GOULDSBORO...HAWLEY...HONESDALE...LACKAWAXEN...
MILFORD...MOOSIC...MOSCOW...PLEASANT MOUNT...SCRANTON...
SUSQUEHANNA...WAYMART...AFTON...BAINBRIDGE...BETHEL...
BLOOMINGBURG...BOONVILLE...CALLICOON...CHERRY VALLEY...
COOPERSTOWN...DAVENPORT...DELHI...DEPOSIT...GRAHAMSVILLE...
GUILFORD...HAMILTON...HANCOCK...HARPURSVILLE...HARTWICK...
HINCKLEY...HOBART...LIBERTY...LIVINGSTON MANOR...LOCH SHELDRAKE...
MARGARETVILLE...MARYLAND...MEREDITH...MONTICELLO...MORRISVILLE...
NEW BERLIN...NORWICH...ONEONTA...OXFORD...RICHFIELD SPRINGS...
ROME...ROSCOE...ROXBURY...SANFORD...SHERBURNE...SIDNEY...
STAMFORD...UNADILLA...UTICA...WALTON...WINDSOR AND WURTSBORO.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN
AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF THE FLOODING THREAT INCREASES...OR A
WARNING IS ISSUED
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
59. ChrisCone
4:51 AM GMT on July 24, 2008
naugatuck ct here, my gauge says 1.8 inches. we had quite a bit of rain in the morning, then a wave of strong thunderstorms during the evening, and now in the overnight more strong thunderstorms and heavy rain. Looking at the radar, it would appear that the edge of the heaviest and most frequent rain and storms has finally arrived. Many thunderstorms can be seen all the way down the mid-atlantic coast which will make its way here.

54 - I remember one summer, I believe it was 1997, when we had several waves of overnight severe weather, when watches needed to be extended due to later-than-expected frontal passage. That year for whatever reason thunderstorms liked to happen at night. I am thinking there is a slight possibility this watch may need to be extended again. If you ask me, the severe threat won't be over at 5am. Now, a 24 hour long severe thunderstorm watch, that WOULD be new! lol
58. LakeShadow
4:25 AM GMT on July 24, 2008
Crazy day for weather! Flash flooding near my hub's work in N. Erie County around 2pm..just happened that he took the day off anyways.

Almost biblical the weather today, eh?

Sheesh!

Everyone stay safe...looks hairy to the East, South and SW...Luckily we only got a nice few thunderboomers and a short sprinkle of rain. A few waterspouts were spotted on Lake Erie.
Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 2134
57. TheShovler3
2:49 AM GMT on July 24, 2008
Southeast Dutchess into litchfield in CT is really picking up on the rainfall totals.
Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2579
56. TheShovler3
2:48 AM GMT on July 24, 2008
I've already got enough for the plants for a week, so anything more is just bonus. I also built in a drain for excessive rainfall so i don't have standing water. So i think i should be okay. The only problem i could have is the stream flooding into the garden... which happened once and killed half of my tomatoes
Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2579
55. sullivanweather
2:18 AM GMT on July 24, 2008
I went out around 8 to check and we had 3.17"

I think we could get over 5" with the next band of rain heading here.

It's hard to tell what the rain is doing right now. It heads east for an hour or so then it backs towards the west for an hour or so.

Plus there's development happening ahead of the front itself. I still think the heaviest amounts will be back in the Catskills where the rain has been most persistent and where orographics come into play.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
54. cchamp6
2:14 AM GMT on July 24, 2008
They extended the severe thundestorm watch until 5 am. I cannot recall ever having a watch go the entire night.
Member Since: December 21, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 2116
53. cchamp6
1:55 AM GMT on July 24, 2008
I have been out to dinner the last few hours with my wife. It has not rained a drop here since the middle of the afternoon. Yet while we were driving home there was non stop lightning every direction we looked!

In regards to the radar estimates and the start date. I noticed they are all different. Now the Wundergrounds radar is just the NWS radar set up for them. I checked the NWS and there date is for only today. Yet the Wunderground says the nintenth or something.


Sully, it appears the bulleye for the rain is setting about 15 miles west of me. What are you thinking on this?
Member Since: December 21, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 2116
52. TheShovler3
1:55 AM GMT on July 24, 2008
Sully, whats your precip for the day now... my raingauge is a little wacky right now ... think i got another beehive in it. I stuck the old one out with the ruler i'm up to about 1.2" from what can tell.. still raining and a large amount of precip to the south.
Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2579
51. Zachary Labe
1:27 AM GMT on July 24, 2008
sullivanweather- Thanks.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15145
50. sullivanweather
1:26 AM GMT on July 24, 2008
I doubt it as well.

It is backing north-northwestward, but the cold front is right on your door step and that should continue pushing east, ending your heavy rain threat.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
49. Zachary Labe
1:17 AM GMT on July 24, 2008
sullivanweather- I have been watching the radars all night and cannot figure out if that line will reach me in Maryland. Personally I sort of doubt it, but any thoughts by you?
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15145
48. sullivanweather
1:10 AM GMT on July 24, 2008
NumberWise,

I have a link somewhere that shows daily precipitation. I'll try and find it.

Each office controls the period of storm total precip on their radars. It's not a standardized practice between all offices.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
47. dean2007
11:06 PM GMT on July 23, 2008
Cchamp, Matt Noyes a met at NECN said 50mph gusts and 60 to 65mph gusts in VT, he did not specify where those winds were likely to occur.
46. NumberWise
11:01 PM GMT on July 23, 2008
But, cchamp6, the beginning date on that link is July 19! This is exactly what I'm questioning. The begin dates are different on different radars.
Member Since: October 22, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1775
45. cchamp6
11:01 PM GMT on July 23, 2008
Oh yeah Sully,

Your powerball numbers sucked! I did mark the calender for the snowfall prediction on 12-18 for a trace in the evening!!
Member Since: December 21, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 2116
44. cchamp6
10:57 PM GMT on July 23, 2008
15-25 mph with gusts to 38 mph in any heavy rain.

Of course I am taking a wild guess. LOL
Member Since: December 21, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 2116
43. dean2007
10:49 PM GMT on July 23, 2008
Those are very impressive. Winds for tomorrow anyone?
42. cchamp6
10:33 PM GMT on July 23, 2008
These rainfall amounts are fairly impressive for today. I cant wait to see after tomorrow. Check this link.Link
Member Since: December 21, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 2116
41. dean2007
10:32 PM GMT on July 23, 2008
You guys heard about the waterspout in RI right, and a funnel cloud in RI as well. WHat does anyone think the complex of storms will do over North Carolina?
40. crowe1
10:32 PM GMT on July 23, 2008
Just hit 2.019" since midnight! I just saw on the news that the NYS Thruway (I-90) is closed due to 2' of water on the road near the town of Florida, Montgomery county.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 15 Comments: 953

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Thomas is an avid weather enthusiast, landscaper and organic gardener. This blog is dedicated to Northeast and tropical weather forecasting. Enjoy!

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