The heat is on!

By: sullivanweather , 6:24 PM GMT on June 07, 2008

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Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings

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Regional Forecast


Sunday afternoon update

A weak mid-level disturbance working in conjunction with a surface trough still draped over central New York has become the focal point for scattered convection this afternoon. A cluster of scattered thunderstorms has developed over the Finger Lakes/Mohawk Valley region of New York State, moving eastward around 30mph. These thunderstorms will continue during the afternoon hours fueled by high heat and humidity that has enveloped the region. A few cells may become severe around the peak heating hours of 12-5pm, containing penny sized hail and wind gusts over 60mph in wet microbursts. In fact, a severe thunderstorm watch has just been posted for much of central and eastern New York, northeast Pennsylvania and western New England.



Synopsis - Issued 6/7 - 2:30pm


A strong deep-layer ridge will anchor itself over the Carolinas through Monday before retreating into the Western Atlantic in response to an approaching trough Tuesday. For the next several days near record breaking warmth will envelop much of the Northeast with high temperatures well into the 90's with heat index values over 100°F. Precipitation chances will be limited to diurnal convection with the best chances across the far north, closer to the periphery of the ridge. A better chance for organized convection occurs Tuesday with the approach of a shortwave trough/cold front. Cooler temperatures (closer to normal, actually) will also follow in the wake of this system for Wednesday before the ridge tries to reestablish itself Thursday and Friday. A vertically stacked low off Nova Scotia will have to be watched late next week for the potential to draw a cooler marine layer over coastal New England.


Short-term - Issued 6/7 2:30pm


The seasons' first heat wave is upon us here in the Northeast. Temperatures yesterday climbed into the low to mid 90's across central New York and much of western/central Pennsylvania as the areas east of the Appalachians found themselves under a tough marine layer and temperatures in the 60's and 70's for much of the first half of the day before the warm front finally broke through. Today that warm front lies across northern New England with all points south socked in with sultry weather. A weak surface trough extends across the NY/PA border into western New England which may provide a focus for afternoon convection. Surface based CAPE values will be well over 2,000J/kg with the oppressive temp-dewpoint combo. An area of cumulus clouds on satellite is moving eastwards across north-central Pennsylvania and south-central New York into an area of high low-level lapse rates and a weaker mid level cap over eastern New York and western New England. This appears to be the prime location for storms during the afternoon hours, some of which may become severe with strong winds due to wet microbursts. A ribbon of PW's of 1.75" bisects the thunderstorm threat area and shear is weak so heavy rain from slow moving storms may cause some flash flooding or ponding of water in low-lying areas.

Convection quickly dies after dusk with loss of daytime heating. However, temperatures won't fall all too fast after a very hot day and high humidity. Temperatures during the evening will settle back through the 80's into the mid and upper 70's by midnight. Lows will bottom out in the upper 60's across the interior (mid 60's higher terrain), and 70's elsewhere. Areas of fog may form as temperatures approach the dewpoints and especially where any convection pops. Areas of northern New England will be closer to the warm front as it hangs up over this area before pushing north late Sunday. Some showers and thundershowers may occur here as a shortwave passes by to the north over Canada. Temperatures will be several degrees cooler also as this area will remain slightly to the north of the airmass over us here in the south.


Mid-term - Issued 6/7 - 2:30pm


Much more of the same Sunday and Monday as heights build northward along the coast. 850mb temps reach 17-21°C from north to south Sunday and peak Monday a degree or two higher. This will push highs into the upper 80's to mid 90's Sunday with upper 90's in the hotter locales on Monday. Overnight lows will give little relief with temperatures falling back into the 70's for most with any 60's confined to the far north over the higher terrain. The urban locations around Philadelphia and New York City may even remain in the 80's during the overnight.


Long-term - Issued 6/7 - 2:30pm



A cold front will approach from the west Tuesday and should spark a round of convection with the hot humid airmass in place. There's timing differences in the models at this time with a few members bringing the cold front through earlier in the day and others during late afternoon and early evening. A later frontal arrival would make for a greater threat for severe weather with this feature and one more day of unseasonably hot weather. Cooler temperatures and lower humidity follow for Wednesday. Heights start to build once again Thursday and Friday, this time from the southwest. Tuesday/Wednesday's cold front returns as a warm front which may hang up over the Appalachians once again as it did last Thursday, creating a west-east temperature gradient over the region. Next trough approaches Saturday afternoon.



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Garden Series

Blog 1: Planning the Garden
Blog 2: Cool season crops
Blog 3: Companion gardening
Blog 4: Container gardening


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Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar


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Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.



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June Daily Weather Statistics


June 1st - 71°F/51°F....0.00"....30%
June 2nd - 73°F/50°F....0.00"....70%
June 3rd - 77°F/46°F....0.05"....70%
June 4th - 66°F/54°F....0.28".....5%
June 5th - 69°F/56°F....0.00"....25%
June 6th - 69°F/55°F....0.16"....10%
June 7th - 88°F/63°F....Trace....60%
June 8th - 85°F/63°F....0.34"....50%
June 9th - 94°F/65°F....0.00"....95%

Storm shadow (sullivanweather)
If I had my camera only a few minutes earlier...
Storm shadow

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Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

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91. sullivanweather
7:30 AM GMT on June 10, 2008
Wow....that was pretty incredible!
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
90. charlesimages
7:27 AM GMT on June 10, 2008
LOL

Yeah no joke..

Sorry for the late reply I was watching some storm chasing videos

Look at this monster

Member Since: May 25, 2006 Posts: 347 Comments: 29278
89. sullivanweather
7:07 AM GMT on June 10, 2008
I won't take it back...lol

I've been pretty confident all along on a severe weather outbreak today. A moderate risk here is like a high risk for the plains...lol
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
88. charlesimages
7:04 AM GMT on June 10, 2008
Aww only one car? Well that does make things more difficult to chase Bro, guess it's time to get out the bicycle like I do.

Hopefully you didn't just jinx yourself with that comment above, no erasing it now though LOL It's already been said!
Member Since: May 25, 2006 Posts: 347 Comments: 29278
87. sullivanweather
7:00 AM GMT on June 10, 2008
I'll just hope that one makes it here. I have a pretty good view of what's going on from my porch.

Kate has work tomorrow so she'll have the car.

I've had good luck with getting some pretty decent weather here at this location.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
86. charlesimages
6:50 AM GMT on June 10, 2008
45% chance of severe wind damage covers a large area of the NE... so that is what I would be concerned about mainly, especially after seeing the MSC's that have rolled through the plains, midwest and great lakes. The common movement has been E & NE.

It is rare to see a Mod Risk up your way.
Do ya have gas? You may have to chase!
Member Since: May 25, 2006 Posts: 347 Comments: 29278
85. sullivanweather
6:45 AM GMT on June 10, 2008
Well, I've been telling everyone around here that Tuesday was going to be a bad one. Now we get to see how bad.

SPC thinks something big is coming to have us in moderate risk. That's pretty rare.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
84. charlesimages
6:39 AM GMT on June 10, 2008
I have a risk of large hail with the cold pool aloft. Hoping I get some decent updrafts later today. You get the tornado and straight line wind risks mainly =) Get your camera ready bro!
Member Since: May 25, 2006 Posts: 347 Comments: 29278
83. sullivanweather
6:36 AM GMT on June 10, 2008
Nice...

I'ma get it BaaAaaD
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
82. charlesimages
6:29 AM GMT on June 10, 2008
Well I'll be damned..
I must be psychic LMAO
Member Since: May 25, 2006 Posts: 347 Comments: 29278
81. sullivanweather
6:09 AM GMT on June 10, 2008
You'll certainly know about it...lol

I'll get some sort of pic of vid.

I hope we get a lot more of this during the summer. I love the hot days.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
80. charlesimages
5:58 AM GMT on June 10, 2008
Wow my typing was bad in my last comment bro.. LOL

I hope you get some good stuff, and it doesn't miss
Member Since: May 25, 2006 Posts: 347 Comments: 29278
79. sullivanweather
5:44 AM GMT on June 10, 2008
I doubt there would be a moderate risk.

They always keep us here in slight risk. I can only recall a few occasions where we get moderate risk.

I'm not worried too much about the clouds. We should have brilliant sunshine until at least noon and by that time most places will be in the 90's or close. The last day of these heat waves is always the worst. Moisture pooling ahead of the front prevents mixing down of lower dewpoints, so heat index is the highest for the event and we're usually starting from the warmest morning lows of the event.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
78. charlesimages
5:14 AM GMT on June 10, 2008
Are they going to throw a moderate risk for yo> I haven't looked at the maps yet.. they might.

The dynamics look good, although you could have some morning clouds..
Member Since: May 25, 2006 Posts: 347 Comments: 29278
77. sullivanweather
5:11 AM GMT on June 10, 2008
Ain't it crazy??

La Guardia is the warmest location in the city at night usually.

I really can't wait for tomorrow. Really good heat and bigtime storms coming.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
76. charlesimages
5:07 AM GMT on June 10, 2008
Jeeze man 90F at this hour? That's hotter than a lot of places...me for one! I am sitting in the 60s.

Too bad you missed the worst, err I mean good thing hehehehe
Member Since: May 25, 2006 Posts: 347 Comments: 29278
75. sullivanweather
5:05 AM GMT on June 10, 2008
I had three warnings on Sunday but barely got nipped by any of the storms.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
74. sullivanweather
5:04 AM GMT on June 10, 2008
New York, La Guardia Airport
Lat: 40.77 Lon: -73.9 Elev: 11
Last Update on Jun 10, 12:51 am EDT


Fair

90°F
(32°C) Humidity: 45 %
Wind Speed: W 12 MPH
Barometer: 29.85" (1010.7 mb)
Dewpoint: 66°F (19°C)
Heat Index: 93°F (34°C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.


Usually these 90 degree midnight temperatures doesn't begin until the water heats up in July.


Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
73. charlesimages
5:03 AM GMT on June 10, 2008
Alright. Hope you get some good stuff dude. There was apparently a monster bow echo I missed in NW Ohio ...
Member Since: May 25, 2006 Posts: 347 Comments: 29278
72. sullivanweather
5:01 AM GMT on June 10, 2008
Hey Chuck!

I was just going over some of the models to see what'll be our chances for severe tomorrow. They look pretty good.

I have a feeling I'll be shooting some video tomorrow.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
71. charlesimages
4:42 AM GMT on June 10, 2008
SULLY! I was missed this last round, but I lost power anyways, go figure LOL We had a moderate rain shower, I suspect it knocked an already weak tree onto the lines.

Had a house fire up the road too.

So what's up man?
Member Since: May 25, 2006 Posts: 347 Comments: 29278
70. sullivanweather
4:32 AM GMT on June 10, 2008
Champ,

LOL

Yeah, it was pretty awesome! Some decent sized stones were falling.


I meant to get back to you earlier but I got caught up in some garden stuff with the temperature being so high then we went to do laundry.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
69. TheShovler3
2:02 AM GMT on June 10, 2008
i just got done playing some basketball on the out door courts in town. Phew was i drenched, i bought 2 gallons of water and polished a little more than one of them off in the 4 hour marathon. The only thing i'm really looking forward to tomorrow is the severe weather potential.

I'm currently watering the garden, i choose to water during the evenings so the pants are less stressed while watering.
Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2579
68. Fshhead
11:06 PM GMT on June 09, 2008
WOW Sully!!

WU has your temp. at °93.6 at seven o'clock at night? LOL See you have to be careful what you wish for. You wanted the heat & GOT IT!!
Not too bad here yet, we have had a strong breeze & getting storms to keep the temps. down a little.
Member Since: November 19, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 9960
67. cchamp6
9:02 PM GMT on June 09, 2008
I have to see if there are any more dents. 2 years ago golf ball size hail and bigger pelted it pretty good!
Member Since: December 21, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 1641
66. TampaFLUSA
8:55 PM GMT on June 09, 2008
The hail video was awesome.
Member Since: June 21, 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 1657
65. cchamp6
8:40 PM GMT on June 09, 2008
Heat index is at 111 degrees!!! It doesnt look like any storms here today.

Also, check out the radar for Ct. coast line. You can clearly see the sea breeze moving north across Long Island heading for Ct.
Member Since: December 21, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 1641
64. cchamp6
8:33 PM GMT on June 09, 2008
It is currently 99 degrees with a dewpoint of 73 degrees. Mine is in the shade.

When I got home from work the poor garden looked like death.

Sully, did you see my hail video I posted here yesterday?
Member Since: December 21, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 1641
63. TheShovler3
8:20 PM GMT on June 09, 2008
both mine have solar shields one however has a glitch in it as it reads 105 today the other one has been constant between 97-99 today car temp read 98 at 2pm
Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2579
62. TampaFLUSA
8:16 PM GMT on June 09, 2008
Allot of stations are in direct sunlight and that skews the reading, they need a solar shield.
Member Since: June 21, 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 1657
61. sullivanweather
7:55 PM GMT on June 09, 2008
94 degrees here despite what the YUAN corp. ob from Liberty says (98.5).

That PWS is located in a parking lot on the side of a brick building.

The highest official NWS temp I've seen is 99 degrees at Newark Airport last hour.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
60. TampaFLUSA
7:30 PM GMT on June 09, 2008
I know I walked to my car in the Hudson Valley mall parking lot (pavement) and I got dizzy. My car temp outside said 102....
Member Since: June 21, 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 1657
59. TheShovler3
7:15 PM GMT on June 09, 2008
the real feel is the kicker at 109
Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2579
58. TheShovler3
7:14 PM GMT on June 09, 2008
i know its ridiculous, i walked around for 2 min and i was drenched. i hit 99.7 thus far i'm pretty sure it will hit 100
Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2579
57. TampaFLUSA
7:08 PM GMT on June 09, 2008
99.1 Dewpoint 68.....U can't breath outside! Lol.
Member Since: June 21, 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 1657
56. TheShovler3
5:33 PM GMT on June 09, 2008
My goodness, it just hit 99 here!
Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2579
55. listenerVT
2:33 AM GMT on June 09, 2008
Ally update:

They sent her HOME today! :~)
That's a swift recovery from Tuesday's monster surgery.

She goes back in for Chemo #6 later this week.
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5484
54. listenerVT
2:14 AM GMT on June 09, 2008
Evenin' all. ♥

We somehow keep missing the thunderstorms they keep predicting.
So we'll probably get whammed tomorrow.

Today's 90's weren't terribly oppressive.

At least I'll be working in air conditioning for the next three days, as temps moderate.

But it's sure been wild for the folks in the midwest, eh?!

Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5484
53. cchamp6
12:38 AM GMT on June 09, 2008
Another nice sunset after a couple rounds of storms today.

img src="sunset 6-8" alt="" />
Member Since: December 21, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 1641
51. cchamp6
8:43 PM GMT on June 08, 2008
Sully,

Did you check out my hail video?

I was just looking at the radar estimates of rain. I noticed the highest amounts right where the hail storms went. I assume they have no way to tell the difference between hail and rain in those storms.

I just spent an hour staking my broccoli, brussel sprouts and tomato plants that the damn storm knocked over.
Member Since: December 21, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 1641
50. sullivanweather
8:32 PM GMT on June 08, 2008
I've been getting the fringes of all these storms. LOTS of lightning and thunder, though.

Wind hasn't been too bad, no hail, a few heavier downpours.

Look at that line over Michigan.

IT'll be interesting to see how that holds up this evening into the overnight. Might get another late night MCS to move through.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
49. cchamp6
8:22 PM GMT on June 08, 2008
Flood advisory for my area. Up to 2" of rain has fallen. My house is at .60"

Looks like tues. afternoon might be the next threat for severe weather.
Member Since: December 21, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 1641
48. cchamp6
8:16 PM GMT on June 08, 2008
Sully,

All of these warnings for you, are you actually getting any storms?
Member Since: December 21, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 1641
47. sullivanweather
8:14 PM GMT on June 08, 2008
I'm under my third severe thunderstorm warning now.

this one is looking bad.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
46. TheShovler3
8:13 PM GMT on June 08, 2008
crazy awesome video man
Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2579
45. cchamp6
8:04 PM GMT on June 08, 2008
Hail about 1 mile to my south.


Member Since: December 21, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 1641
44. cchamp6
7:34 PM GMT on June 08, 2008
Round one just went by. It missed me by 1 mile to the south. I got some video of the hail. I did some storm chasing. The wind was pretty decent along with some minor flooding. Give me a minute to load the video.

Looks like the next one is gonna be bigger.
Member Since: December 21, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 1641
43. TheShovler3
7:25 PM GMT on June 08, 2008
it would appear there is a line trying to organize right now as its passing me overhead. Champ better watch out looks like you're in for another round as this passes me by.
Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2579
42. TheShovler3
7:22 PM GMT on June 08, 2008
lucky you man!
Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2579

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About sullivanweather

Thomas is an avid weather enthusiast, landscaper and organic gardener. This blog is dedicated to Northeast and tropical weather forecasting. Enjoy!

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