Thomas is an avid weather enthusiast, landscaper and organic gardener. This blog is dedicated to Northeast and tropical weather forecasting. Enjoy!
By: sullivanweather , 6:24 PM GMT on June 07, 2008
Current watches, warnings and advisories.
Sunday afternoon update
A weak mid-level disturbance working in conjunction with a surface trough still draped over central New York has become the focal point for scattered convection this afternoon. A cluster of scattered thunderstorms has developed over the Finger Lakes/Mohawk Valley region of New York State, moving eastward around 30mph. These thunderstorms will continue during the afternoon hours fueled by high heat and humidity that has enveloped the region. A few cells may become severe around the peak heating hours of 12-5pm, containing penny sized hail and wind gusts over 60mph in wet microbursts. In fact, a severe thunderstorm watch has just been posted for much of central and eastern New York, northeast Pennsylvania and western New England.
Synopsis - Issued 6/7 - 2:30pm
A strong deep-layer ridge will anchor itself over the Carolinas through Monday before retreating into the Western Atlantic in response to an approaching trough Tuesday. For the next several days near record breaking warmth will envelop much of the Northeast with high temperatures well into the 90's with heat index values over 100°F. Precipitation chances will be limited to diurnal convection with the best chances across the far north, closer to the periphery of the ridge. A better chance for organized convection occurs Tuesday with the approach of a shortwave trough/cold front. Cooler temperatures (closer to normal, actually) will also follow in the wake of this system for Wednesday before the ridge tries to reestablish itself Thursday and Friday. A vertically stacked low off Nova Scotia will have to be watched late next week for the potential to draw a cooler marine layer over coastal New England.
Short-term - Issued 6/7 2:30pm
The seasons' first heat wave is upon us here in the Northeast. Temperatures yesterday climbed into the low to mid 90's across central New York and much of western/central Pennsylvania as the areas east of the Appalachians found themselves under a tough marine layer and temperatures in the 60's and 70's for much of the first half of the day before the warm front finally broke through. Today that warm front lies across northern New England with all points south socked in with sultry weather. A weak surface trough extends across the NY/PA border into western New England which may provide a focus for afternoon convection. Surface based CAPE values will be well over 2,000J/kg with the oppressive temp-dewpoint combo. An area of cumulus clouds on satellite is moving eastwards across north-central Pennsylvania and south-central New York into an area of high low-level lapse rates and a weaker mid level cap over eastern New York and western New England. This appears to be the prime location for storms during the afternoon hours, some of which may become severe with strong winds due to wet microbursts. A ribbon of PW's of 1.75" bisects the thunderstorm threat area and shear is weak so heavy rain from slow moving storms may cause some flash flooding or ponding of water in low-lying areas.
Convection quickly dies after dusk with loss of daytime heating. However, temperatures won't fall all too fast after a very hot day and high humidity. Temperatures during the evening will settle back through the 80's into the mid and upper 70's by midnight. Lows will bottom out in the upper 60's across the interior (mid 60's higher terrain), and 70's elsewhere. Areas of fog may form as temperatures approach the dewpoints and especially where any convection pops. Areas of northern New England will be closer to the warm front as it hangs up over this area before pushing north late Sunday. Some showers and thundershowers may occur here as a shortwave passes by to the north over Canada. Temperatures will be several degrees cooler also as this area will remain slightly to the north of the airmass over us here in the south.
Mid-term - Issued 6/7 - 2:30pm
Much more of the same Sunday and Monday as heights build northward along the coast. 850mb temps reach 17-21°C from north to south Sunday and peak Monday a degree or two higher. This will push highs into the upper 80's to mid 90's Sunday with upper 90's in the hotter locales on Monday. Overnight lows will give little relief with temperatures falling back into the 70's for most with any 60's confined to the far north over the higher terrain. The urban locations around Philadelphia and New York City may even remain in the 80's during the overnight.
Long-term - Issued 6/7 - 2:30pm
A cold front will approach from the west Tuesday and should spark a round of convection with the hot humid airmass in place. There's timing differences in the models at this time with a few members bringing the cold front through earlier in the day and others during late afternoon and early evening. A later frontal arrival would make for a greater threat for severe weather with this feature and one more day of unseasonably hot weather. Cooler temperatures and lower humidity follow for Wednesday. Heights start to build once again Thursday and Friday, this time from the southwest. Tuesday/Wednesday's cold front returns as a warm front which may hang up over the Appalachians once again as it did last Thursday, creating a west-east temperature gradient over the region. Next trough approaches Saturday afternoon.
Blog 1: Planning the Garden
Blog 2: Cool season crops
Blog 3: Companion gardening
Blog 4: Container gardening
Radar: Northeast Region Loop
Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.
June Daily Weather Statistics
June 1st - 71°F/51°F....0.00"....30%
June 2nd - 73°F/50°F....0.00"....70%
June 3rd - 77°F/46°F....0.05"....70%
June 4th - 66°F/54°F....0.28".....5%
June 5th - 69°F/56°F....0.00"....25%
June 6th - 69°F/55°F....0.16"....10%
June 7th - 88°F/63°F....Trace....60%
June 8th - 85°F/63°F....0.34"....50%
June 9th - 94°F/65°F....0.00"....95%
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