Severe thunderstorms this afternoon

By: sullivanweather , 5:11 PM GMT on May 27, 2008

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Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings

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Regional Forecast


Short-term - Issued 5/27 - 1:10pm


A surface cold front moving into a warm humid airmass across the Northeast will give rise to showers and thunderstorms, some of which could approach severe limits. Plenty of ingredients are currently coming together for a widespread severe thunderstorm outbreak, especially from eastern Pennsylvania across to southern New England. Temperatures have climbed into the upper 70's to low 80's with dewpoints in the 60's leading to CAPE values of 1,000-2,000J/kg. LI's range from -2 to -5C and low-level lapse rates range from 7-9C/km so there's plenty of instability present. Initial development has already occurred with individual cells of thunderstorms. Good speed shear, 35-50kts, will support organization of thunderstorms in line segments as the afternoon progresses. Strong winds aloft will easily make for severe wind gusts in the storms that do develop, up to 70mph. Individual cells ahead of the line segments may also contain large hail as shear should be strong enough to support persistent updrafts and CAPE extending into the -10C layer of the atmosphere. Freezing levels are fairly high, but hail could grow big enough to survive the trip down to the surface. Storms should be on the wane by evening with the loss of heating and the cold front moving south of the region/offshore.


Fig.1 - Surface based CAPE


Fig.2 - Low-level lapse rates


Fig.3 - Bulk shear


Skies will clear tonight from north to south as a very chilly airmass replaces the warm humid one currently over the Northeast. Freeze warnings are issued for the Adirondacks where the growing season has recently began. Frost advisories have also been issued across the Tug Hill Plateau, north-central Pennsylvania and southwestern New York. Lows in these areas will fall back into the 30’s. Elsewhere across the interior temperatures will fall back to the 40’s with low 50’s along the coastal plain.


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Garden Series

Blog 1: Planning the Garden
Blog 2: Cool season crops
Blog 3: Companion gardening
Blog 4: Container gardening


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Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar


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Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.



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May Daily Weather Statistics

May 1st - 56°F/25°F...0.12"...30%
May 2nd - 48°F/45°F...0.05"....0%
May 3rd - 48°F/43°F...0.16"....0%
May 4th - 64°F/45°F...0.07"...60%
May 5th - 67°F/35°F...0.00"...75%
May 6th - 70°F/36°F...Trace"...90%
May 7th - 75°F/39°F....0.00"...80%
May 8th - 68°F/48°F....0.04"...25%
May 9th - 48°F/42°F....0.62"....0%
May 10th - 61°F/39°F...0.00"...60%
May 11th - 62°F/36°F...0.00"...40%
May 12th - 54°F/39°F...Trace...20%
May 13th - 70°F/38°F...0.00"...90%
May 14th - 73°F/37°F...0.01"...95%
May 15th - 65°F/48°F...0.26"...40%
May 16th - 49°F/45°F...1.03"....0%
May 17th - 65°F/41°F...0.08"...40%
May 18th - 53°F/43°F...0.11"...25%
May 19th - 49°F/36°F...0.09"...10% (Snow - Trace)
May 20th - 53°F/28°F...Trace...20%
May 21st - 54°F/41°F...0.28"...25%
May 22nd - 51°F/43°F...0.22"...30% (Snow - Trace)
May 23rd - 60°F/45°F...Trace...25%
May 24th - 64°F/42°F...0.01"...80%
May 25th - 72°F/39°F...0.00"...95%
May 26th - 79°F/43°F...0.03"...70%
May 27th - 79°F/48°F...Trace...60%
May 28th - 61°F/39°F...0.00"..100%

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15. sullivanweather
3:19 PM GMT on May 29, 2008
Good morning, everyone~!

Sorry I haven't been around the last few days. I ended up taking full advantage of the extended holiday weekend and the near perfect weather since to get LOTS of garden work done. There really hasn't been time for much else.

I'll be posting a new blog today with the forecast and a follow up during the evening for warm season crops. I'll have that blog up until the evening of June 1. Thereafter I'll be switching gears with the blog to the tropics. Already a formidable cyclone in the East Pac, so things are heating up.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
14. ncforecaster
8:01 AM GMT on May 29, 2008
Hey Sullivan,

I hardly get a chance to post on the blogs anymore. That being said, I wanted to take a moment and do just that by thanking you for your post in my previous blog.

I also wanted to commend you on your excellent blog, which I'm sure is an asset to many who live in the Northeast. Most importantly, I want to wish you a great rest of the week.:)

Most sincerely,
Tony
Member Since: May 17, 2006 Posts: 108 Comments: 1374
12. Zachary Labe
12:36 AM GMT on May 29, 2008
sullivanweather- Good evening!!! So what are your thoughts on the potential severe weather this weekend? Things look pretty significant.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
11. SilverMountain
9:28 PM GMT on May 28, 2008
I cant believe we have frost/freeze warnings in NW PA!! AHHH. Im tired of coldish weather already!!

10. charlesimages
7:10 AM GMT on May 28, 2008
Hey Sully! Just wanna pass along my congrats on your AC! Man I thought you had more than one!!

Man, it's an awesome photo though!

I almost hit a deer on the way home today.....ON MY BICYCLE! I was doing about 25mph downhill and about 20ft in front of me a deer jumps out in the road LOL! Too bad I didn't have the camera on me..

Hope all is well, it's 38F at my house and into the 20s north of me!!!
Member Since: May 25, 2006 Posts: 347 Comments: 29278
9. listenerVT
6:45 AM GMT on May 28, 2008
Hallo all!

I still breathe...just haven't had time to play much this week.

I was home doing some oil painting yesterday while Hubby and son were out on Lake Champlain in a sailboat race...when the rain that wasn't due for hours yet showed up early, and I heard a huge, long roll of thunder! I looked at the radar and there were three large yellow spots over them. Then I heard more thunder. I kind of freaked until they called me back awhile later on cell phone. They'd only gotten a little wet, not the thunder.

They came in first in the race, too.


We have a frost warning tonight, but I don't think it'll get below 35 here.
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5692
8. cchamp6
12:06 AM GMT on May 28, 2008
Hello everyone,

High temp. here today was 85 degrees. The dewpoint made it up to 70 degrees late this afternoon. We had a total of .48" of rain. The wind was not a factor, it is blowing now about 20 mph. We had several rounds of storms in my area. Nothing severe though.

Two questions. Frost tonight or tomorrow night? And what about this severe weather for saturday?
Member Since: December 21, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 2032
7. Zachary Labe
11:59 PM GMT on May 27, 2008
dean2007- I am going to do some research and analyzing the event. I should have a new blog out tomorrow devoted to the event. Pretty cool severe thunderstorm moved through my region. I got some good pictures I will upload soon.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
6. dean2007
9:14 PM GMT on May 27, 2008
I'm doing well. What about that supposed severe weather outbreak this weekend?
5. Zachary Labe
7:26 PM GMT on May 27, 2008
dean2007- Nope they are not affecting me yet. How are you? Haven't seen you around here in a while.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
4. dean2007
7:18 PM GMT on May 27, 2008
It was out around 130pm EDT today, as the storms began to pop up. Hey Blizzard any pictures of the storms?
3. Zachary Labe
7:08 PM GMT on May 27, 2008
I see a watch is now out.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15140
2. dean2007
5:36 PM GMT on May 27, 2008
We normally get whacked either in the summer or winter(sometimes) but rarely. Sully, anything going to happen here on Cape Cod, MA, I know it doesn't look like it, I just want your overall thoughts?
1. TheShovler3
5:32 PM GMT on May 27, 2008
Sully, what with my area, when we get sever storms they always seem to slide just south and just north. During the winter we usually get whacked, what gives?
Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2579

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Thomas is an avid weather enthusiast, landscaper and organic gardener. This blog is dedicated to Northeast and tropical weather forecasting. Enjoy!

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