Northeast Weather Blog

Strong to severe storms today/Arctic sea-ice watch

By: sullivanweather, 6:04 AM GMT on June 30, 2009


**Updated with data to June 28th**

Julian Day 169

------- Extent (km^2)----Difference (km^2)
2003 – 10,809,844……..……….-78,750
2004 – 10,685,156……..……….-67,188
2005 – 10,362,188……..……….-66,875
2006 – 10,228,438……..……….-57,031
2007 – 10,450,469………………-72,031
2008 – 10,542,500………..…….-70,469
2009 – 10,603,125………..…….-68,594

-------

Julian Day 170

------- Extent (km^2)----Difference (km^2)
2003 – 10,756,563……..……….-53,281
2004 – 10,609,844……..……….-75,312
2005 – 10,296,406……..……….-65,782
2006 – 10,174,844……..……….-53,594
2007 – 10,368,438………………-82,031
2008 – 10,499,531………..…….-42,969
2009 – 10,533,594………..…….-69,531

-------

Julian Day 171

------- Extent (km^2)----Difference (km^2)
2003 – 10,668,281……..……….-88,282
2004 – 10,583,906……..……….-25,938
2005 – 10,230,313……..……….-66,093
2006 – 10,109,844……..……….-65,000
2007 – 10,279,375………………-89,063
2008 – 10,449,531………..…….-50,000
2009 – 10,449,375………..…….-84,219

-------

Julian Day 172

------- Extent (km^2)----Difference (km^2)
2003 – 10,602,031……..……….-66,250
2004 – 10,550,781……..……….-33,125
2005 – 10,187,344……..……….-42,969
2006 – 10,051,406……..……….-58,438
2007 – 10,218,750………………-60,625
2008 – 10,386,719………..…….-62,812
2009 – 10,359,844………..…….-89,531

-------

Julian Day 173

------- Extent (km^2)----Difference (km^2)
2003 – 10,516,250……..……….-85,781
2004 – 10,493,594……..……….-57,187
2005 – 10,143,906……..……….-43,438
2006 – 9,982,188……..……….-69,218
2007 – 10,162,656………………-56,094
2008 – 10,319,063………..…….-67,656
2009 – 10,300,469………..…….-59,375

-------

Julian Day 174

------- Extent (km^2)----Difference (km^2)
2003 – 10,446,719……..……….-69,531
2004 – 10,426,875……..……….-66,719
2005 – 10,067,344……..……….-76,562
2006 – 9,896,094……..……….-86,094
2007 – 10,104,063……….………-58,593
2008 – 10,255,938………..…….-63,125
2009 – 10,243,906………..…….-56,563

-------

Julian Day 175

------- Extent (km^2)----Difference (km^2)
2003 – 10,402,500……..……….-44,219
2004 – 10,373,594……..……….-53,281
2005 – 10,001,094……..……….-66,250
2006 – 9,766,406……..…….….-129,688
2007 – 10,027,188………………-76,875
2008 – 10,198,438………..…….-57,500
2009 – 10,171,719………..…….-72,187

-------

Julian Day 176

------- Extent (km^2)----Difference (km^2)
2003 – 10,362,344……..……….-40,156
2004 – 10,297,344……..……….-76,250
2005 – 9,913,906……..……….-87,188
2006 – 9,654,844……..……….-111,562
2007 – 9,932,656………………-94,532
2008 – 10,112,031………..…….-86,407
2009 – 10,106,563………..…….-65,156

-------

Julian Day 177

------- Extent (km^2)----Difference (km^2)
2003 – 10,322,813……..……….-39,531
2004 – 10,226,250……..……….-71,094
2005 – 9,844,375……..……….-69,531
2006 – 9,585,000……..……….-69,844
2007 – 9,823,594………………-109,062
2008 – 10,054,375………..…….-57,656
2009 – 10,061,406………..…….-45,157

-------

Julian Day 178

------- Extent (km^2)----Difference (km^2)
2003 – 10,259,844……..……….-62,969
2004 – 10,179,531……..……….-46,719
2005 – 9,761,094……..……….-83,281
2006 – 9,526,719……..……….-58,281
2007 – 9,743,750………………-79,844
2008 – 9,992,344………..…….-62,061
2009 – 10,024,688………..…….-36,718

-------

Julian Day 179

------- Extent (km^2)----Difference (km^2)
2003 – 10,198,281……..……….-61,563
2004 – 10,155,156……..……….-24,375
2005 – 9,704,688……..……….-56,406
2006 – 9,435,625……..……….-91,094
2007 – 9,664,844………………-78,906
2008 – 9,949,844………..…….-42,500
2009 – 9,964,844………..…….-59,844



(*denotes extrapolated figure)


Sea-ice notes this week:

Weekly melt rate (6/21-28)

2009 – 56,429km^2
2008 – 62,411km^2
2007 – 79,129km^2
2006 – 87,969km^2
2005 – 68,951km^2
2004 – 56,518km^2
2003 – 57,679km^2

The melt rate for 2009 has slowed over the last week with an average rate of decline of 56,429km^2. This is likely due to the extensive cloud cover over the arctic in the western hemisphere. Near average to slightly below average temperatures is also aiding in this reduced melt rate, despite much of the ice edge consisting of first year ice. This reduced ice melt rate should continue over the next week as the polar vortex positions itself over the high Canadian Arctic with high pressure and light winds in the Chuckchi and East Siberian Seas.


-------

Pics from the cryosphere



Fig.6 - Melt ponds forming on the Greenland ice cap as seen from space.



Fig.6a - Weakening shorefast ice along the Siberian coast.


Extent difference


Fig.7 - Difference in sea-ice extent between 2009 and recent years.



Melt Rate

*Melt rate charts are far behind. Will try to have them updated tomorrow.*


Fig.8 - 2009(blue) daily melt rate of Arctic sea-ice compared to 2008(red).

-------


Fig.9 - 2009(blue) daily melt rate of Arctic sea-ice compared to 2007(magenta).

*Data retrieved from JAXA


___________________________________________________________



Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings
Fig.10 - Current watches, warning and advisories issued by the National Weather Service. Courtesy of NOAA.

--------

Forecast Discussion


Synopsis - Issued - 6/30 @8:30am


For the next several days the Northeast will be under the influence of an anomalous cut-off low as it slowly traverses the region. This feature will keep chances of showers and thunderstorms going virtually throughout the remainder of the week, with the bulk of the activity occurring during the afternoon though the passage of several shortwaves will also aid in precipitation production. By this weekend a slight eastward shift in the global longwave pattern over North America will push the longwave trough axis east to Atlantic Canada, lessening the daily chances for precipitation.


Short-term - Issued - 6/30 @8:30am


The barrage continues…

Current satellite imagery depicts a large pin-wheeling area of low pressure over the eastern Great Lakes with tell tale colder cloud tops representing areas of heavier showers and thundershowers over western/central New York and Pennsylvania. Further east, a large area of low clouds and fog are clearly visible over much of New England save the far western strip of the region where skies are generally clear, as are the skies across southern New Jersey. Between these two areas, across eastern New York/Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey, skies are partly to mostly cloudy with a few scattered showers but enough sun is managing to break through to prime this region for strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon; more on that below. Temperatures this morning are mild, with upper 50’s to mid 60’s covering much of the interior and coastal New England with low 70’s down along the coastal plain on south.


The main area under threat for severe weather this afternoon lies from east-central Pennsylvania, much of eastern New York State, northern New Jersey and western New England. Cloud cover will disperse as we head through the morning, allowing for strong June sun to destabilize the atmosphere ahead of an approaching shortwave and surface trough. These features will be the impetus for the development of numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. As mentioned, several hours of June sun will allow for adequate destabilization of the low-levels as surface based CAPE values approach 1,000J/kg with muCAPE values possibly as high as 1,500J/kg across the urban corridor. In addition, mid-levels will be cooling as well, from -16°C to -10°C northwest to southeast, though 700-500mb lapse rates will fall short of the >6.5°C/km prime rates that would denote a more deep unstable column. Winds aloft, as with instability, will fall into the marginal category for severe weather. Bulk shear should be in the 30-35kt range which should be sufficient enough to organize stronger multi-cellular clusters into line-segments, capable of damaging winds. However, winds below 500mb are generally under 30kts and mid-levels are fairly moist, so only the strongest cores should be capable of damaging winds. Of more concern will be the possibility of severe hail. Mid-levels, while not exceptionally cold, are still fairly cold for the last day of June and wet bulb zero heights are lower than climatology, ranging from 8,000-11,500asl from north to south. Pea to dime-sized hail will be most common, but could grow to golf ball-sized in the strongest storms. Precipitable water contents are slightly above normal, in the 1.1-1.3” range so heavy downpours will present urban and small stream flood concerns, especially given the continued saturated ground. A few training cells are possible and localized amounts of over 2” of rain can fall, though basin averages should be a third to two thirds of an inch. Subsidence behind the shortwave will taper showers and thunderstorms across the western third of the region by mid-afternoon while the marine deck over the eastern two thirds of New England slowly erodes throughout the day. Because of this marine layer temperatures will be held in check, ranging from the mid 60’s along the immediate coast to the low 70’s inland. Across the region highlighted for severe weather, varying levels of sunshine will allow temperatures to rise into the mid 70’s across the interior to the low 80’s along the coastal plain. To the west, rain-cooled air and varying levels of clouds through mid-afternoon will keep temperatures from rising much past the 70°F mark.


The loss of insolation tonight will signal the end of the severe weather threat but with the trough and shortwave still rotating through western New England showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing into the evening. After midnight much of the activity will become widely scattered with patchy fog forming, which could be especially thick in the river valleys. Lows will fall into the upper 50’s to mid 60’s across the interior with mid 60’s to near 70°F along the coastal plain.


Mid/long-term - coming later

___________________________________________________________


Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar
Fig.11 - Radar loop of the Northeast region. Courtesy of Weather Underground.


___________________________________________________________

Local SST's

Northeast SST's
Fig.12 Sea-surface temperatures off the Northeast Coast. Courtesy of NOAA.


___________________________________________________________



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Updated: 12:32 PM GMT on June 30, 2009

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Severe weather likely today

By: sullivanweather, 3:35 PM GMT on June 26, 2009






Fig.2 - USDA plant hardiness zone map of the eastern United States circa 1990. Credit: USDA

Garden Series

Blog 1: Planning the Garden


Blog 2: Cool season crops


Blog 3: Companion Planting


Blog 4: Container Gardening


Blog 5: Warm Season Crops(1)


___________________________________________________________

Soil Conditions

**Please note**
These soil condition charts are self-updating and occasionally display corrupted data (more often than not lately).


Soil moisture and anomalies 0-200cm
Soil moisture 0-200cm
Fig.3 - Weekly averaged soil moisture and anomalies 0-200cm. Credit: NOAA

Soil temperature 0-10cm
Soil temperature 0-10cm
Fig.4 - 6-hourly updated 0-10cm soil temperature. Credit: NOAA

Soil temperature and anomalies 10-40cm
Soil temperature 10-40cm
Fig.5 - Weekly updated 10-40cm soil temperature and anomalies. Credit: NOAA


Kelvin temperature scale
273.15°K = 0°C


___________________________________________________________



**Updated with data to June 18th**

Julian Day 161

------- Extent (km^2)----Difference (km^2)
2003 – 11,230,313……..……….-26,562
2004 – 11,043,594……..……….-26,562
2005 – 10,681,875……..……….-45,625
2006 – 10,690,000……..……….-80,156
2007 – 10,884,844………………-32,344
2008 – 10,897,031………..…….-101,407
2009 – 10,976,094………..…….-10,781

-------

Julian Day 162

------- Extent (km^2)----Difference (km^2)
2003 – 11,190,000……..……….-40,313
2004 – 11,013,906……..……….-29,688
2005 – 10,663,750……..……….-18,125
2006 – 10,622,969……..……….-67,031
2007 – 10,828,750………………-56,094
2008 – 10,827,656………..…….-69,375
2009 – 10,958,281………..…….-17,813

-------

Julian Day 163

------- Extent (km^2)----Difference (km^2)
2003 – 11,127,969……..……….-62,031
2004 – 10,971,563……..……….-42,343
2005 – 10,634,219……..……….-29,531
2006 – 10,560,000……..……….-62,969
2007 – 10,811,094………………-17,656
2008 – 10,806,875………..…….-20,781
2009 – 10,937,656………..…….-20,625

-------

Julian Day 164

------- Extent (km^2)----Difference (km^2)
2003 – 11,079,688……..……….-48,281
2004 – 10,953,438……..……….-18,125
2005 – 10,627,969……..……….-6,250
2006 – 10,507,500……..……….-52,500
2007 – 10,775,000………………-36,094
2008 – 10,775,938………..…….-30,937
2009 – 10,922,344………..…….-15,312

-------

Julian Day 165

------- Extent (km^2)----Difference (km^2)
2003 – 11,020,625……..……….-59,063
2004 – 10,916,406……..……….-37,032
2005 – 10,597,500……..……….-30,469
2006 – 10,442,344……..……….-65,156
2007 – 10,699,531………………-75,469
2008 – 10,736,250………..…….-39,688
2009 – 10,875,625………..…….-46,719

-------

Julian Day 166

------- Extent (km^2)----Difference (km^2)
2003 – 10,967,500……..……….-53,125
2004 – 10,857,656……..……….-58,750
2005 – 10,552,656……..……….-44,844
2006 – 10,379,844……..……….-62,500
2007 – 10,626,250………………-73,281
2008 – 10,714,063………..…….-22,187
2009 – 10,813,906………..…….-61,719

-------

Julian Day 167

------- Extent (km^2)----Difference (km^2)
2003 – 10,939,844……..……….-27,656
2004 – 10,806,250……..……….-51,406
2005 – 10,487,188……..……….-65,468
2006 – 10,337,969……..……….-41,875
2007 – 10,574,844………………-51,406
2008 – 10,664,531………..…….-49,532
2009 – 10,747,500………..…….-66,406

-------

Julian Day 168

------- Extent (km^2)----Difference (km^2)
2003 – 10,888,594……..……….-51,250
2004 – 10,752,344……..……….-53,906
2005 – 10,429,063……..……….-58,125
2006 – 10,285,469……..……….-52,500
2007 – 10,522,500………………-52,344
2008 – 10,612,969………..…….-51,562
2009 – 10,671,719………..…….-75,781



(*denotes extrapolated figure)


Sea-ice notes this week:

Coming soon...

-------

Pics from the cryosphere



Fig.6 - Melt ponds forming on the Greenland ice cap as seen from space.



Fig.6a - Weakening shorefast ice along the Siberian coast.


Extent difference


Fig.7 - Difference in sea-ice extent between 2009 and recent years.



Melt Rate


Fig.8 - 2009(blue) daily melt rate of Arctic sea-ice compared to 2008(red).

-------


Fig.9 - 2009(blue) daily melt rate of Arctic sea-ice compared to 2007(magenta).

*Data retrieved from JAXA


___________________________________________________________



Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings
Fig.10 - Current watches, warning and advisories issued by the National Weather Service. Courtesy of NOAA.

--------

Forecast Discussion


Synopsis - Issued - 6/26 @11:35am


A strengthening upper disturbance will pull into the Northeast today as a weak cold front slides through the region. These features will promote scattered showers and thunderstorms throughout the day, some of which will be severe. This upper disturbance cuts off from the main flow as it reaches the coast, sticking around through the weekend giving areas along the coastal plain another mostly gray go of it. Unfortunately, as next week begin yet another closed low will dive into the Great Lakes and slowly push across the Northeast over the course of the week. This will lead to a continuation of unsettled weather and temperatures, though averaging close to normal, running several degrees cooler for daily max’s.


Short-term - Issued - 6/26 @11:35am


Quite an active weather day is already underway across the Northeast. Numerous showers and thunderstorms extend in a broken line from east-central New York, around the Capital District, southeastward through western Connecticut to the eastern half of Long Island. This activity is associated with a weak vortimax rounding the bottom of the trough carving itself out over the region and should push eastward around 20-30mph. More isolated activity exists across the NYS Thruway to Buffalo and across northwestern Maine.

Behind the main batch of precipitation skies are gradually becoming mostly sunny, allowing for quick destabilization of the atmosphere in this warm humid airmass. Another area of mostly clear skies extend from northern New York and Vermont, across much of New Hampshire and western Maine. These two areas of ample sunshine will be the highest risk areas for severe thunderstorms today. CAPE values should exceed 1,000J/kg by max heating as lifted indices drop to -3 to -5. Region will lie in the dynamically favorable left-exit region of a 100kt jet streak over the Ohio Valley with good divergence aloft. Convection will fire up along a pre-frontal/leeside trough during the early afternoon hours from the western Catskills of New York into the Poconos of Pennsylvania, along the western flanks of a theta-e ridge axis. These storms will quickly intensify given the ripe thermodynamic environment and steep lapse rates with cold pool at mid-levels overhead. Additional storms will build along the actual front still hanging back across western New York and Pennsylvania. The storms within this region will begin as multi-clusters but should organize into line segments as bulk shear will be in the 30-40kt range. Once organized, storms will be capable of damaging wind gusts with large hail confined to the stronger/taller cells as freezing levels are rather high today. Supercell development is also possible in the higher CAPE/helicity environment expected along the coastal plain this afternoon. 0-3km storm-relative helicity is progged to run around 150m2/s2 from the Philadelphia metro area to southern New England where the possibility exists for a tornado to drop out of any stronger cell. There is some concern that cloud debris from this morning’s activity pushing into southern New England may limit heating potential and thus, convection today. However, thought here is that activity will move in from already developed storms from the west. All activity will push eastwards today and wane in intensity during the evening with the loss of insolation. By the overnight, mainly showers and thundershowers will be all that’s left of the severe weather. This activity will be confined mainly to the eastern half of the region as drier air works in behind the front across the west.

Temperatures today will be quite warm, with highs in the 80’s across much of the region. Exceptions will be over northern Maine and perhaps, if clouds hold on long enough, southern New England. Here temperatures will climb to a very muggy upper 70’s. Clouds persist throughout much of the region tonight with the upper trough in place. This will limit the diurnal fall in temperatures tonight with lows ranging from the low to mid 60’s across the far northern interior to the mid 60’s to low 70’s across the remainder of the region.



Mid/long-term - coming later


___________________________________________________________


Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar
Fig.11 - Radar loop of the Northeast region. Courtesy of Weather Underground.


___________________________________________________________

Local SST's

Northeast SST's
Fig.12 Sea-surface temperatures off the Northeast Coast. Courtesy of NOAA.


___________________________________________________________



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Unique hits.
hit-counter-download.com .


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Updated: 1:43 PM GMT on June 28, 2009

Permalink

Don't put away the raingear yet!

By: sullivanweather, 1:04 PM GMT on June 25, 2009






Fig.2 - USDA plant hardiness zone map of the eastern United States circa 1990. Credit: USDA

Garden Series

Blog 1: Planning the Garden


Blog 2: Cool season crops


Blog 3: Companion Planting


Blog 4: Container Gardening


Blog 5: Warm Season Crops(1)


___________________________________________________________

Soil Conditions

**Please note**
These soil condition charts are self-updating and occasionally display corrupted data (more often than not lately).


Soil moisture and anomalies 0-200cm
Soil moisture 0-200cm
Fig.3 - Weekly averaged soil moisture and anomalies 0-200cm. Credit: NOAA

Soil temperature 0-10cm
Soil temperature 0-10cm
Fig.4 - 6-hourly updated 0-10cm soil temperature. Credit: NOAA

Soil temperature and anomalies 10-40cm
Soil temperature 10-40cm
Fig.5 - Weekly updated 10-40cm soil temperature and anomalies. Credit: NOAA


Kelvin temperature scale
273.15°K = 0°C


___________________________________________________________



**Updated with data to June 18th**

Julian Day 161

------- Extent (km^2)----Difference (km^2)
2003 – 11,230,313……..……….-26,562
2004 – 11,043,594……..……….-26,562
2005 – 10,681,875……..……….-45,625
2006 – 10,690,000……..……….-80,156
2007 – 10,884,844………………-32,344
2008 – 10,897,031………..…….-101,407
2009 – 10,976,094………..…….-10,781

-------

Julian Day 162

------- Extent (km^2)----Difference (km^2)
2003 – 11,190,000……..……….-40,313
2004 – 11,013,906……..……….-29,688
2005 – 10,663,750……..……….-18,125
2006 – 10,622,969……..……….-67,031
2007 – 10,828,750………………-56,094
2008 – 10,827,656………..…….-69,375
2009 – 10,958,281………..…….-17,813

-------

Julian Day 163

------- Extent (km^2)----Difference (km^2)
2003 – 11,127,969……..……….-62,031
2004 – 10,971,563……..……….-42,343
2005 – 10,634,219……..……….-29,531
2006 – 10,560,000……..……….-62,969
2007 – 10,811,094………………-17,656
2008 – 10,806,875………..…….-20,781
2009 – 10,937,656………..…….-20,625

-------

Julian Day 164

------- Extent (km^2)----Difference (km^2)
2003 – 11,079,688……..……….-48,281
2004 – 10,953,438……..……….-18,125
2005 – 10,627,969……..……….-6,250
2006 – 10,507,500……..……….-52,500
2007 – 10,775,000………………-36,094
2008 – 10,775,938………..…….-30,937
2009 – 10,922,344………..…….-15,312

-------

Julian Day 165

------- Extent (km^2)----Difference (km^2)
2003 – 11,020,625……..……….-59,063
2004 – 10,916,406……..……….-37,032
2005 – 10,597,500……..……….-30,469
2006 – 10,442,344……..……….-65,156
2007 – 10,699,531………………-75,469
2008 – 10,736,250………..…….-39,688
2009 – 10,875,625………..…….-46,719

-------

Julian Day 166

------- Extent (km^2)----Difference (km^2)
2003 – 10,967,500……..……….-53,125
2004 – 10,857,656……..……….-58,750
2005 – 10,552,656……..……….-44,844
2006 – 10,379,844……..……….-62,500
2007 – 10,626,250………………-73,281
2008 – 10,714,063………..…….-22,187
2009 – 10,813,906………..…….-61,719

-------

Julian Day 167

------- Extent (km^2)----Difference (km^2)
2003 – 10,939,844……..……….-27,656
2004 – 10,806,250……..……….-51,406
2005 – 10,487,188……..……….-65,468
2006 – 10,337,969……..……….-41,875
2007 – 10,574,844………………-51,406
2008 – 10,664,531………..…….-49,532
2009 – 10,747,500………..…….-66,406

-------

Julian Day 168

------- Extent (km^2)----Difference (km^2)
2003 – 10,888,594……..……….-51,250
2004 – 10,752,344……..……….-53,906
2005 – 10,429,063……..……….-58,125
2006 – 10,285,469……..……….-52,500
2007 – 10,522,500………………-52,344
2008 – 10,612,969………..…….-51,562
2009 – 10,671,719………..…….-75,781



(*denotes extrapolated figure)


Sea-ice notes this week:

Coming soon...

-------

Pics from the cryosphere



Fig.6 - Melt ponds forming on the Greenland ice cap as seen from space.



Fig.6a - Weakening shorefast ice along the Siberian coast.


Extent difference


Fig.7 - Difference in sea-ice extent between 2009 and recent years.



Melt Rate


Fig.8 - 2009(blue) daily melt rate of Arctic sea-ice compared to 2008(red).

-------


Fig.9 - 2009(blue) daily melt rate of Arctic sea-ice compared to 2007(magenta).

*Data retrieved from JAXA


___________________________________________________________



Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings
Fig.10 - Current watches, warning and advisories issued by the National Weather Service. Courtesy of NOAA.

--------

Forecast Discussion


Synopsis - Issued - 6/25 @9:00am


The vertically stacked low offshore the New England Coast that has dogged the eastern half of the region with weather typically seen in April and May will finally lift, allowing for at least one day of some type of weather that resembles summer. Unfortunately, it’s being replaced quickly by the next trough currently digging into the Great Lakes. This trough will reach the Northeast by Friday, forming its own cut-off that will persist through the weekend. The story doesn’t get much better as another cut-off low pressure, this one much larger, slowly rotates towards the region from the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes early next week. This duo of low pressure areas will keep wet weather in the forecast throughout much of the period, though not everyday will be a washout.


Near-term - Issued - 6/25 @9:00am

A mix of sun and clouds this morning across a good portion of the Northeast, though most places have more clouds than sun. This is especially true along the New England coastal plain and portions of the interior where locally dense fog and light mist due to the still onshore flow from the low offshore continues to plague the region. Locally dense valley fog also exists in an axis from the southern Adirondacks to the Catskills, Poconos and surrounds areas where rainfall moved in late yesterday afternoon and evening. Temperatures throughout the region are mainly in the 60’s, with some of the higher terrain locales in the 50’s.

Short-term - Issued - 6/25 @9:00am

The fog should burn off during the mid-morning hours across the interior as the strong June sun goes to work. Along the coast it may take a bit longer, perhaps into the afternoon, for the sun to break out but it should eventually do so for most locales. Airmass over the region has considerably warmed since early in the week with 850mb temps running from 18°C across western Pennsylvania and New York to 13-14°C across eastern New England. With the high June sun shining down temperatures will quickly climb from their morning readings and reach into the 80’s from western New England on west. Eastern New England, where clouds remain the longest, temperatures may only hold in the 70’s.

Already moving in on the western horizon by afternoon will be the next trough. Ahead of this feature, the airmass will become quite unstable. CAPE values rise to over 2,000J/kg and with lifted indices in the -4 to -7 range and steep lapse rates into the mid-levels. What’s lacking is a well-defined trough passage to serve as the initiator for a more widespread event. Instead, an ill-defined pre-frontal trough will slide through providing weak convergence along its flanks for the development of convection. Another area to watch will be across the western Catskills and Poconos where leftover boundaries from yesterday’s showers and differential heating from thicker morning cloud cover should receive aid from the terrain allowing for isolated activity to develop. The flow aloft is weak, generally less than 20kts up to 500mb, so any storms that do develop will be slow movers. Precipitable water values will be roughly 125% of normal meaning any storms that do develop will be capable of producing torrential downpours. Given the expected slow movement of storms and nearly saturated ground localized flash flooding may be realized under the strongest cells.

The pre-frontal feature continues to move eastward, into eastern New York and western New England by late in the overnight. Showers and thunderstorms will accompany this feature but with the loss of daytime heating decreasing instability, the intensity of the storms will wane, eventually becoming thundershowers by tomorrow morning. Meanwhile, the actual front pushes into western New York and Pennsylvania after midnight with additional scattered showers and thunderstorms. Lows tonight will drop into the 60’s for most locales.


Mid/long-term - coming later


___________________________________________________________


Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar
Fig.11 - Radar loop of the Northeast region. Courtesy of Weather Underground.


___________________________________________________________

Local SST's

Northeast SST's
Fig.12 Sea-surface temperatures off the Northeast Coast. Courtesy of NOAA.


___________________________________________________________



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Permalink

June '09 - The 'Big Wet'

By: sullivanweather, 9:58 PM GMT on June 19, 2009






Fig.2 - USDA plant hardiness zone map of the eastern United States circa 1990. Credit: USDA

Garden Series

Blog 1: Planning the Garden


Blog 2: Cool season crops


Blog 3: Companion Planting


Blog 4: Container Gardening


Blog 5: Warm Season Crops(1)


___________________________________________________________

Soil Conditions

**Please note**
These soil condition charts are self-updating and occasionally display corrupted data (more often than not lately).


Soil moisture and anomalies 0-200cm
Soil moisture 0-200cm
Fig.3 - Weekly averaged soil moisture and anomalies 0-200cm. Credit: NOAA

Soil temperature 0-10cm
Soil temperature 0-10cm
Fig.4 - 6-hourly updated 0-10cm soil temperature. Credit: NOAA

Soil temperature and anomalies 10-40cm
Soil temperature 10-40cm
Fig.5 - Weekly updated 10-40cm soil temperature and anomalies. Credit: NOAA


Kelvin temperature scale
273.15°K = 0°C


___________________________________________________________



**Updated with data to June 18th**

Julian Day 161

------- Extent (km^2)----Difference (km^2)
2003 – 11,230,313……..……….-26,562
2004 – 11,043,594……..……….-26,562
2005 – 10,681,875……..……….-45,625
2006 – 10,690,000……..……….-80,156
2007 – 10,884,844………………-32,344
2008 – 10,897,031………..…….-101,407
2009 – 10,976,094………..…….-10,781

-------

Julian Day 162

------- Extent (km^2)----Difference (km^2)
2003 – 11,190,000……..……….-40,313
2004 – 11,013,906……..……….-29,688
2005 – 10,663,750……..……….-18,125
2006 – 10,622,969……..……….-67,031
2007 – 10,828,750………………-56,094
2008 – 10,827,656………..…….-69,375
2009 – 10,958,281………..…….-17,813

-------

Julian Day 163

------- Extent (km^2)----Difference (km^2)
2003 – 11,127,969……..……….-62,031
2004 – 10,971,563……..……….-42,343
2005 – 10,634,219……..……….-29,531
2006 – 10,560,000……..……….-62,969
2007 – 10,811,094………………-17,656
2008 – 10,806,875………..…….-20,781
2009 – 10,937,656………..…….-20,625

-------

Julian Day 164

------- Extent (km^2)----Difference (km^2)
2003 – 11,079,688……..……….-48,281
2004 – 10,953,438……..……….-18,125
2005 – 10,627,969……..……….-6,250
2006 – 10,507,500……..……….-52,500
2007 – 10,775,000………………-36,094
2008 – 10,775,938………..…….-30,937
2009 – 10,922,344………..…….-15,312

-------

Julian Day 165

------- Extent (km^2)----Difference (km^2)
2003 – 11,020,625……..……….-59,063
2004 – 10,916,406……..……….-37,032
2005 – 10,597,500……..……….-30,469
2006 – 10,442,344……..……….-65,156
2007 – 10,699,531………………-75,469
2008 – 10,736,250………..…….-39,688
2009 – 10,875,625………..…….-46,719

-------

Julian Day 166

------- Extent (km^2)----Difference (km^2)
2003 – 10,967,500……..……….-53,125
2004 – 10,857,656……..……….-58,750
2005 – 10,552,656……..……….-44,844
2006 – 10,379,844……..……….-62,500
2007 – 10,626,250………………-73,281
2008 – 10,714,063………..…….-22,187
2009 – 10,813,906………..…….-61,719

-------

Julian Day 167

------- Extent (km^2)----Difference (km^2)
2003 – 10,939,844……..……….-27,656
2004 – 10,806,250……..……….-51,406
2005 – 10,487,188……..……….-65,468
2006 – 10,337,969……..……….-41,875
2007 – 10,574,844………………-51,406
2008 – 10,664,531………..…….-49,532
2009 – 10,747,500………..…….-66,406

-------

Julian Day 168

------- Extent (km^2)----Difference (km^2)
2003 – 10,888,594……..……….-51,250
2004 – 10,752,344……..……….-53,906
2005 – 10,429,063……..……….-58,125
2006 – 10,285,469……..……….-52,500
2007 – 10,522,500………………-52,344
2008 – 10,612,969………..…….-51,562
2009 – 10,671,719………..…….-75,781



(*denotes extrapolated figure)


Sea-ice notes this week:

Coming soon...

-------

Pics from the cryosphere



Fig.6 - Melt ponds forming on the Greenland ice cap as seen from space.



Fig.6a - Weakening shorefast ice along the Siberian coast.


Extent difference


Fig.7 - Difference in sea-ice extent between 2009 and recent years.



Melt Rate


Fig.8 - 2009(blue) daily melt rate of Arctic sea-ice compared to 2008(red).

-------


Fig.9 - 2009(blue) daily melt rate of Arctic sea-ice compared to 2007(magenta).

*Data retrieved from JAXA


___________________________________________________________



Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings
Fig.10 - Current watches, warning and advisories issued by the National Weather Service. Courtesy of NOAA.

--------

Forecast Discussion


Synopsis - Issued - 6/19 @5:50pm

The unusually wet and chilly pattern we’ve seen thus far this June will continue through the weekend as another moisture-laden trough of low pressure is expected to track through the region. Rainfall amounts of one to three inches will accompany this next system in a wide swath from the Niagara Frontier to the New England Coast. The area of low pressure will become vertically stacked just offshore and slow to move out as we head into next week. This could keep coastal areas socked in with clouds and showers while conditions improve across the western half of the region as heights build aloft and temperatures may finally climb to average readings. Beyond Tuesday the pattern becomes more difficult to decipher as the Northeast becomes wedged between the offshore cut-off low and a strong H500 ridge developing over the center of the nation. General troughiness will exist over the region during the midweek period, allowing for a favorable environment for diurnal showers and thunderstorms, but axis of the aforementioned H500 ridge will extend from Texas to the western Great Lakes, curtailing the progression of any significant shortwaves tracking towards the region for a few days. This ridge then retrogrades back to the Western US by the end of the week, opening the door for more troughs to track towards the Northeast to close out this very damp month of June.


Near-term - Issued - 6/19 @5:50pm

A mid/upper disturbance working in tandem with a surface trough is pulling through Maine this afternoon and evening leading to a shield of moderate to occasionally heavy rainfall along the I-95 corridor from Portland to Houlton. Rainfall rates of a quarter to a half inch per hour is occurring within this area of rainfall and is leading to some minor poor drainage and smaller creek and stream flooding. This rain will slowly rotate through Downeast Maine this evening into the overnight with additional rainfall amounts of three quarters of an inch to an inch and a half possible. Outside of this main area of precipitation activity becomes more showery across northern and western Maine and northeastern New Hampshire. Here rainfall amounts will only amount to a tenth of an inch or less. Further to the south and west, where clouds have broken to allow some glimpses of sunshine, low level lapse rates have risen enough to support development of showers. This activity is mainly confined to the higher terrain of the Adirondacks, Greens and Berkshires, however, a couple stronger showers have also developed across eastern Massachusetts where a rumble or two of thunder may accompany these heavier showers. Even further south and west skies have become mostly sunny this afternoon, with some passing high clouds running out ahead of the next system slated to drench the region tomorrow. Temperatures have responded to the high June sun and are currently running in the upper 70’s to low 80’s where the sun is shining. Meanwhile, under the clouds and rainfall in New England temperatures are running in the 60’s to low 70’s.

The rainfall over Maine will be slow to leave tonight as the upper-level system drags its heels. Elsewhere across the region it will be partly cloudy, with increasing cloudiness across the western half of the region as the next system approaches and decreasing cloudiness over western and southern New England as the system currently over Maine moves out. Some showers or thunderstorms may work their way into the Niagara Frontier and western Pennsylvania by daybreak but most of the night will be spent precipitation-free. Temperatures will settle back into the 60’s for most locales with a few 50’s possible across the higher terrain up north. Patchy fog may become a problem across valley locations from the abundant low-level moisture still in place and temperatures falling to the dewpoint.


Short-term - Issued - 6/20 @12:55am


Rain and embedded thunderstorms will overspread much of western New York and Pennsylvania during the morning hours on Saturday as low pressure slides east-southeastwards into the Niagara Frontier from the central Great Lakes region. Deep-layer lift from the potent upper disturbance and its associated vorticity advection combined with strongly divergent flow ahead of this feature and strong low-level convergence provided by the advancing low pressure and the nose of a rich 30-40kt 850mb jet should make for efficient precipitation production. In addition, precipitable water values will rise to 1.5-2” on the heels of strong 850mb moisture transport via the Ohio Valley. This spells out conditions ripe for heavy rainfall and with a nearly saturated ground heading into this event from weeks of persistent rainfall, flooding may result. At this time any severe threat looks to remain along the southern tier of Pennsylvania, deeper into the warm sector and under the stronger winds aloft. Moderately unstable atmosphere with CAPE values of around 1,000J/kg will be in place, though these may be exceeded should the system hold off for a few hours allowing for some morning sunshine, but given the advancement of the precipitation of radar, extrapolation would place much of the region in the warm sector under clouds and precipitation early enough to prevent much insolation. Also in the morning hours, the tail end of the pesky trough over Maine will persist with up to an inch of additional rainfall on top of the 1-2 inches expected to have already fallen by daybreak. This will cause some minor flooding of creeks and streams but main stem rivers are expected to remain within their banks.

There’s still some spread within the models as to how the system begins to evolve from Saturday afternoon on. A narrow zone of confluent flow will exist between the two systems in a nnw-sse axis from northern Vermont to coastal Massachusetts. This will tend to keep these areas dry on Saturday, helping to shunt the system advancing from the west to the south and off the New York Bight by midnight. Rain and embedded thunderstorms will continue across much of New York, New Jersey, eastern Pennsylvania and western New England, where 1-2” of rainfall will be common. Some locales may even pick up 3-4 inches should thunderstorms train over any particular region, and this system has a history of such behavior. The rivers across this region are running a bit higher than areas to the west and this type of rainfall may lead to a more significant flooding event. No major flooding is expected but it would not be surprising to see a couple stage points reach moderate flood. Temperatures on Saturday should range into the 70’s for most locales. The exceptions will be across north-central New York and Downeast Maine where 60’s are expected. A few 80°F readings may be reached under the confluent axis where the strong June sun should shine the strongest. Little diurnal variation in temperature as we head into the nighttime hours Saturday night with the humid airmass in place. Lows will be some 5-10 degrees cooler than daily highs.

The upper trough takes on a negative tilt and cuts off from the main flow on Sunday, just off Long Island. Inverted trough axis will hang back across western New England and eastern New York State with rain continuing, bad news for the U.S. Open at Bethpage this year. This tournament may very well be lucky if it’s finished by Monday! The trough axis will slowly drop southwestward during the day on Sunday with the steady rain moving along with it and finally offshore by Sunday night. Elsewhere within the circulation of this cut-off low clouds and showers will make for a murky day. Temperatures will generally be in the 70’s with 60’s along the coast where maritime influences from easterly winds will be felt most. Showers continue into Sunday night with cloudy skies and fog for most areas. Skies will begin to break west of the Appalachians after midnight but all points east will be socked in. Lows will be in the 60’s throughout the region with higher elevations of the North Country checking in with lows in the 50’s.


Mid-term - Issued - 6/20 @12:55am


The cut-off low will linger not too far offshore Monday and Tuesday. Certainly close enough for areas east of the Appalachians to be caught in the fringe effects of this low. Along the immediate coast raw northeasterly flow and disturbances rotating in from the ocean will keep overcast skies and showers around for much of the time. Ocean temps in the Gulf of Maine are only in the 50’s and this will be reflected as the ambient air temperatures for many locales along the New England Coast while 60’s should do for coastal locales to the south. Just inland, there may be a few breaks of sun between passing showers allowing for temperatures to reach into the 70’s. Should a stronger disturbance round the low a bit further west or more sunshine filter through some convection may also be possible. Well inland, from the Appalachians on west, skies will be mixed sun and clouds, though there will be an overall decrease in the amount of cloudiness as we progress through the midterm. This ample amount of sunshine will allow temperatures to climb into the 80’s.


Long-term - Issued - 6/20 @12:20pm


Models continue to hang the upper low just offshore through Wednesday but currently disagree on whether or not to maintain this feature as a significant system. Several model solutions show the upper low filling and slowly weakening as it lifts northeast as an open trough. Others maintain a cut-off system lingering offshore the New England Coast as heights build over the central Atlantic and eastern Canada, effectively blocking the system. The latter scenario would present a continued miserable pattern along the immediate coast while areas inland may see the rare northeast flow severe weather event, akin to the 6/12-13/2007 event. There are some striking similarities between the set-up in ’07 to the set-up seen in some models. Should the low press offshore at a faster pace then the rain/storms threat would be confined Wednesday to the immediate coast. To the west of the Appalachians conditions will be much nicer with partly to mostly sunny skies and temperatures climbing into the 80’s. The pesky upper low should finally shove on out on Thursday as another trough digs into the Great Lakes region serving as the ‘kicker’. RH fields indicate plenty of moisture will linger and combined with a much warmer airmass in place but weak flow aloft, slow-moving pulse thunderstorms may pop during peak heating, presenting the possibility of localized flash flooding.

The aforementioned trough moves into the Northeast on Friday, bringing another round of more widespread showers and thunderstorms, some of which may be on the strong to severe side. It will also feel ‘summery’ for the first time in a long time, especially across New England where highs reaching the 80’s combined with elevated humidity levels should make for a rather muggy day, as opposed to damp. Meanwhile, the H500 ridge over the center of the nation that had been building all week will see a series of Pacific disturbances begin to chop it back down. The first of these disturbances will reach the Northeast by late next Saturday/early Sunday bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms, but by no means a washout as it currently looks. Unfortunately, the pattern beyond the extended range may revert back to the cool, wet mid-spring-like one we’ve seen for much of June as we head into July. As is usual with seasonal patterns, they tend to persist. Positive height anomalies just seem to be gravitating to south-central Texas, north-central Mexico and the Intermountain West where drought conditions and low soil-moisture contents seemingly perpetuate each other. Consequently, a slightly stronger than normal mid-oceanic ridge over the Atlantic has yielded persistent troughiness across the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes region and Northeast.


___________________________________________________________


Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar
Fig.11 - Radar loop of the Northeast region. Courtesy of Weather Underground.


___________________________________________________________

Local SST's

Northeast SST's
Fig.12 Sea-surface temperatures off the Northeast Coast. Courtesy of NOAA.


___________________________________________________________



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Updated: 4:23 PM GMT on June 20, 2009

Permalink

Galoshes needed

By: sullivanweather, 9:26 AM GMT on June 09, 2009






Fig.2 - USDA plant hardiness zone map of the eastern United States circa 1990. Credit: USDA

Garden Series

Blog 1: Planning the Garden


Blog 2: Cool season crops


Blog 3: Companion Planting


Blog 4: Container Gardening


Blog 5: Warm Season Crops(1)


___________________________________________________________

Soil Conditions

**Please note**
These soil condition charts are self-updating and occasionally display corrupted data (more often than not lately).


Soil moisture and anomalies 0-200cm
Soil moisture 0-200cm
Fig.3 - Weekly averaged soil moisture and anomalies 0-200cm. Credit: NOAA

Soil temperature 0-10cm
Soil temperature 0-10cm
Fig.4 - 6-hourly updated 0-10cm soil temperature. Credit: NOAA

Soil temperature and anomalies 10-40cm
Soil temperature 10-40cm
Fig.5 - Weekly updated 10-40cm soil temperature and anomalies. Credit: NOAA


Kelvin temperature scale
273.15°K = 0°C


___________________________________________________________



**Updated with data to June 9th**

Julian Day 153

------- Extent (km^2)----Difference (km^2)
2003 – 11,732,344……..……….+92,500
2004 – 11,298,438……..……….+9,844
2005 – 11,284,531……..……….+18,906
2006 – 11,151,094……..……….+75,781
2007 – 11,318,125………………-3,906
2008 – 11,459,219………..…….+55,313
2009 – 11,523,125………..…….+77,031

-------

Julian Day 154

------- Extent (km^2)----Difference (km^2)
2003 – 11,715,469……..……….-16,875
2004 – 11,335,313……..……….+36,875
2005 – 11,186,719……..……….-97,812
2006 – 11,108,906……..……….-42,188
2007 – 11,187,969………………-130,156
2008 – 11,507,656………..…….+48,437
2009 – 11,479,844………..…….-43,281

-------

Julian Day 155

------- Extent (km^2)----Difference (km^2)
2003 – 11,604,209……..……….-111,250
2004 – 11,302,188……..……….-33,125
2005 – 11,065,469……..……….-121,250
2006 – 11,032,188……..……….-76,718
2007 – 11,123,125………………-64,844
2008 – 11,452,969………..…….-54,687
2009 – 11,310,781………..…….-169,063

-------

Julian Day 156

------- Extent (km^2)----Difference (km^2)
2003 – 11,511,563……..……….-92,656
2004 – 11,241,406……..……….-60,782
2005 – 10,959,063……..……….-106,406
2006 – 10,947,969……..……….-84,219
2007 – 11,054,375………………-68,750
2008 – 11,347,344………..…….-105,625
2009 – 11,159,219………..…….-151,562

-------

Julian Day 157

------- Extent (km^2)----Difference (km^2)
2003 – 11,447,969……..……….-63,594
2004 – 11,136,094……..……….-105,312
2005 – 10,914,063……..……….-45,000
2006 – 10,909,219……..……….-38,750
2007 – 10,975,313………………-79,062
2008 – 11,223,750………..…….-123,594
2009 – 11,086,719………..…….-72,500

-------

Julian Day 158

------- Extent (km^2)----Difference (km^2)
2003 – 11,374,531……..……….-73,438
2004 – 11,108,750……..……….-27,344
2005 – 10,840,938……..……….-73,125
2006 – 10,862,865*……..……….-46,354*
2007 – 10,948,750………………-26,563
2008 – 11,145,625………..…….-78,125
2009 – 11,028,906………..…….-57,813

-------

Julian Day 159

------- Extent (km^2)----Difference (km^2)
2003 – 11,320,000……..……….-54,531
2004 – 11,094,531……..……….-14,219
2005 – 10,774,688……..……….-66,250
2006 – 10,816,511*……..……….-46,354*
2007 – 10,938,281………………-10,469
2008 – 11,077,656………..…….-67,969
2009 – 11,004,688………..…….-24,218

-------

Julian Day 160

------- Extent (km^2)----Difference (km^2)
2003 – 11,256,875……..……….-63,125
2004 – 11,070,156……..……….-24,375
2005 – 10,727,500……..……….-47,188
2006 – 10,770,156……..……….-46,355*
2007 – 10,917,188………………-21,093
2008 – 10,998,438………..…….-79,218
2009 – 10,986,875………..…….-17,813


(*denotes extrapolated figure)


Sea-ice notes this week:

-------

Pics from the cryosphere



Fig.6 - Melt ponds forming on the Greenland ice cap as seen from space.



Fig.6a - Weakening shorefast ice along the Siberian coast.


Extent difference


Fig.7 - Difference in sea-ice extent between 2009 and recent years.



Melt Rate


Fig.8 - 2009(blue) daily melt rate of Arctic sea-ice compared to 2008(red).

-------


Fig.9 - 2009(blue) daily melt rate of Arctic sea-ice compared to 2007(magenta).

*Data retrieved from JAXA


___________________________________________________________




Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings
Fig.10 - Current watches, warning and advisories issued by the National Weather Service. Courtesy of NOAA.

--------

Forecast Discussion


Synopsis - Issued - 6/09 @4:25am


An active weather pattern will persist through the work week, making for very wet conditions. Passages of individual shortwaves are slated for today, Thursday and Friday, with those later on in the week bringing the potential for minor flooding as the ground saturates during the week. The lone break on Wednesday will be dominated by easterly flow and a pesky marine layer pushing low clouds, fog and drizzle ashore. No guarantees that Saturday will remain precipitation-free in all locales but and activity appears isolated at best with most eking out a dry day. Another trough dips into the Great Lakes and Northeast Sunday and Monday as unsettled weather returns.


Near-term - Issued - 6/09 @4:25am

Numerous showers and thunderstorms associated with low pressure moving into the region and its attending frontal boundaries are sweeping through much of New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and western New England this overnight and early morning. A few of the storms in central Pennsylvania have been on the strong side, producing 30-40mph winds, frequent lightning and pea-sized hail, but no severe thunderstorm warnings have been issued thus far with this batch of storms at the time of this writing, though storms may become severe at any time. Through mid morning most locales across the affected regions will see a quarter to a half inch of rainfall, though where those heavier thunderstorms occur rainfall may exceed one inch. The clouds thin as one heads further northeast as high pressure is in control following the passage of a northern stream trough yesterday morning over northern New England. In fact, ideal radiational cooling under the clear skies, light winds and dry continental airmass has led to late frost/freeze across northern Maine. Temperatures here have dropped all the way back into the lower to middle 30’s. Elsewhere across northern New England temperatures this morning are in the 40’s to low 50’s while the remainder of the region remains in the mid 50’s to mid 60’s in the soupy airmass south of the warm front.

Short-term - Issued - 6/09 @5:25am


Aforementioned low pressure will weaken today as it heads into the Northeast, feeling the effects of blocking high pressure over the Labrador Coast. Regardless, showers and thunderstorms will still make their presence felt over the region today, especially in the warm sector ahead of the cold front. Despite varying levels of cloud cover, limiting surface based instability to an extent, enough insolation will occur to adequately destabilize the atmosphere for the development of thunderstorms along and ahead of the front today. Axis of deeper moisture, exhibited by precipitable water values running well over 1.5”, runs through eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey up into southeastern New York and southern New England aiding in CAPE that will exceed 1,000J/kg by the noon hour over the regions mentioned above. Winds aloft aren’t too impressive, running around 20kts @850mb and barely touching 40kts @500mb yielding effective shear of around 20-25kts, enough to sustain storms and weakly organize them, but no blockbuster line of squalls are expected. Drier air will be moving in aloft, however, increasing the potential for large hail and strong downdrafts in some of the stronger cells that do develop. As stated, the atmosphere will also be quite moist and storms will have the potential for blinding downpours leading to quick ponding of water in low-lying/poor drainage areas as well as rapid rises on flashier creeks and streams since the ground has significantly moistened over the last month. An additional half into to inch of rain could fall today with localized higher amounts in heavier storms. Further north and east, across northern New York and New England, thunder will be less common within the area of precipitation as it runs into more stable air, becoming more of a stratiform event. Here rainfall amounts will be less, on the order of a quarter to half an inch. Even further northeast, over northern Maine, rain should hold off for much of the day with merely an increase in clouds after a frosty start. Temperatures will only climb into the upper 50’s to low 60’s across these areas, about 10 degrees below normal for early June. Under the clouds and precipitation across the remainder of northern New York and New England temperatures will be held down, remaining in the 50’s until reaching the warm front. In the warm sector temperatures will be a humid 65-75°F while behind the front temperatures will be around those readings but will less humidity and partly to mostly cloudy skies.

The weakening low moves towards the mouth of the St.Lawrence River tonight, spreading rainfall across the remainder of New England with storms in the warm sector across southern New England weakening with the loss of daytime heating and the intrusion of a more stable maritime airmass. Rainfall tonight over northern New England should range from a quarter to a third of an inch. The front will more-or-less wash out over the region leaving a very moist low level airmass in place, leading to the development of low clouds, drizzle, mist and localized dense fog during the overnight hours. Temperatures won’t fall far from their daily highs with the thick cloud cover overhead. Lows will range from the upper 40’s to low 50’s across the north with upper 50’s to mid 60’s across the south.

The soupy airmass will remain in place during the day on Wednesday with much of the day spent under thick cloud cover. There will be some breaks, especially west of the Appalachians, but even here skies will be mostly cloudy to start and with the next system fast approaching by the late afternoon only a small window for fair skies will exist during midday. Temperatures should climb into the upper 60’s to mid 70’s. Meanwhile, east of the Appalachians it will be damp and dreary throughout the day, with low clouds, fog and drizzle for most locales. This marine layer will keep temperatures suppressed in the 60’s to low 70’s, very little diurnal variation here. Lingering showers across northern New England will also keep things quite miserable outside and temperatures here will be even cooler, only in the 50’s.




Mid-term - Issued - 6/09 @5:25am


Another significant shortwave/surface low will cut across the Northeast Wednesday night and Thursday. Moist southerly flow markedly increases ahead of this system with the nose of a 30kt low-level jet punching into the Northeast delivering copious amounts of Gulf moisture. Rain and thunderstorms will spread over the region from southwest to northeast with a wide swath of 1-2 inch rainfall totals expected. By Thursday evening much of the precipitation associated with this low pressure will pull into New England with areas to the west seeing a brief break. Temperatures should remain below normal by a couple degrees for highs but remain several degrees above normal for lows yielding slightly above normal temperatures during the period. By Friday models begin to diverge as some show another area of low pressure moving along a stationary front during the early morning left behind from Thursday’s system bringing another round of showers and storms while others show the front dropping south with high pressure building down from the Great Lakes. Either solution looks plausible at this point and the best chances for fair weather should be around the Great Lakes to the St.Lawrence Valley region. Temperatures on Friday will solely depend on whether or not precipitation falls and where it falls.


Long-term - Issued - 6/09 @5:25am


Another weak disturbance will push towards the Northeast on Saturday but with less moisture around and an anemic disturbance aloft expect any activity to remain widely scattered at best, mainly across the southern half of the region. Temperatures should remain near average for mid-June. Another deeper trough begins to carve out across the Great Lakes and Northeast on Sunday and Monday. Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage once again as moisture increases in southwesterly flow ahead of the trough. Stronger winds aloft also look to impinge on the region as well, possibly setting the stage for severe weather. Temperatures will continue to run close to average or slightly above with clouds keeping temperatures a few more degrees warmer than normal at night then they are cooler than normal during the day.


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Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar
Fig.11 - Radar loop of the Northeast region. Courtesy of Weather Underground.


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Local SST's

Northeast SST's
Fig.12 Sea-surface temperatures off the Northeast Coast. Courtesy of NOAA.


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Updated: 7:00 AM GMT on June 12, 2009

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Belmont Park

By: sullivanweather, 1:37 PM GMT on June 08, 2009

The Northeast Weather Blog will be on a one day hiatus in deference to a Belmont Park photo blog. This past Saturday, June 6th, Kate and I went to the 141st running of the Belmont Stakes, our first time at Belmont Race Track.

Updated: 1:42 PM GMT on June 08, 2009

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More storms across Pennsylvania and New Jersey today

By: sullivanweather, 1:43 PM GMT on June 03, 2009






Fig.2 - USDA plant hardiness zone map of the eastern United States circa 1990. Credit: USDA

Garden Series

Blog 1: Planning the Garden


Blog 2: Cool season crops


Blog 3: Companion Planting


Blog 4: Container Gardening


Blog 5: Warm Season Crops(1)


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Soil Conditions

**Please note**
These soil condition charts are self-updating and occasionally display corrupted data (more often than not lately).


Soil moisture and anomalies 0-200cm
Soil moisture 0-200cm
Fig.3 - Weekly averaged soil moisture and anomalies 0-200cm. Credit: NOAA

Soil temperature 0-10cm
Soil temperature 0-10cm
Fig.4 - 6-hourly updated 0-10cm soil temperature. Credit: NOAA

Soil temperature and anomalies 10-40cm
Soil temperature 10-40cm
Fig.5 - Weekly updated 10-40cm soil temperature and anomalies. Credit: NOAA


Kelvin temperature scale
273.15°K = 0°C


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**Updated with data to June 2nd**


Julian Day 147

------- Extent (km^2)----Difference (km^2)
2003 – 11,720,313……..……….-79,375
2004 – 11,351,875……..……….-3,438
2005 – 11,519,844……..……….-64,062
2006 – 11,179,531……..……….-36,563
2007 – 11,401,563………………-36,562
2008 – 11,586,250………..…….-39,688
2009 – 11,624,375………..…….-45,156

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Julian Day 148

------- Extent (km^2)----Difference (km^2)
2003 – 11,689,844……..……….-30,469
2004 – 11,364,688……..……….+12,813
2005 – 11,455,000……..……….-64,844
2006 – 11,145,156……..……….-34,375
2007 – 11,398,906………………-2,657
2008 – 11,534,531………..…….-51,719
2009 – 11,586,719………..…….-37,656


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Julian Day 149

------- Extent (km^2)----Difference (km^2)
2003 – 11,646,250……..……….-43,594
2004 – 11,362,500……..……….-2,188
2005 – 11,389,375……..……….-65,625
2006 – 11,104,531……..……….-40,625
2007 – 11,368,750………………-30,156
2008 – 11,497,031………..…….-37,500
2009 – 11,552,656………..…….-34,063


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Julian Day 150

------- Extent (km^2)----Difference (km^2)
2003 – 11,611,719……..……….-34,531
2004 – 11,340,625……..……….-21,875
2005 – 11,340,156……..……….-49,219
2006 – 11,058,594……..……….-45,937
2007 – 11,307,188………………-61,562
2008 – 11,490,156………..…….-6,875
2009 – 11,478,125………..…….-74,531


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Julian Day 151

------- Extent (km^2)----Difference (km^2)
2003 – 11,578,438……..……….-33,281
2004 – 11,325,313……..……….-15,312
2005 – 11,270,156……..……….-70,000
2006 – 11,009,375……..……….-49,219
2007 – 11,258,594………………-48,594
2008 – 11,448,750………..…….-41,406
2009 – 11,402,188………..…….-75,937

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Julian Day 152

------- Extent (km^2)----Difference (km^2)
2003 – 11,639,844……..……….+61,406
2004 – 11,288,594……..……….-36,719
2005 – 11,265,625……..……….-4,531
2006 – 11,075,313……..……….+65,938
2007 – 11,322,031………………+63,437
2008 – 11,403,906………..…….-44,844
2009 – 11,446,094………..…….+43,906

-------

Julian Day 153

------- Extent (km^2)----Difference (km^2)
2003 – 11,732,344……..……….+92,500
2004 – 11,298,438……..……….+9,844
2005 – 11,284,531……..……….+18,906
2006 – 11,151,094……..……….+75,781
2007 – 11,318,125………………-3,906
2008 – 11,459,219………..…….+55,313
2009 – 11,523,125………..…….+77,031

-------


Sea-ice notes this week:

·As expected, 2009 slipped into 2nd on the JAXA AMSR-E time series on May 23rd. 2003 is now the highest daily extent over the last 7 years, 71,407km^2 higher than 2009, for Julian Day 144.

·With continuous 24 daylight now over much of the arctic snowcover on the ice will melt into ponds, supported by the ice below. These melt ponds are sometimes mistakenly processed as open water on the current processing algorithm. On June 1st, in recent years, the JAXA AMSR-E data shows a jump in sea-ice extent on/around this date. This is due to a change in the processing algorithm to account for these melt ponds as ice covered.

·Over the last 9 days the average decline in extent has been 67,014km^2. This is a highest rate of decline for the same 9 days in any of the last 7 years and far exceeds the runner-up, 2008, which saw an average rate of decline of 60,503km^2 over the period.

·Ice-melt through the end of May should be strong in Baffin Bay and especially so along the Labrador Coast, where much of the ice left will be eroded by the 30th and 31st as warm air and moist southeasterly winds move into this region. Sea-ice melt will be less than average over the Barents Sea and the Bering/Chukchi Seas as cold air moves down from the high arctic due to a developing low pressure over mainland Alaska. Meanwhile, the consolidated area of ice Sea of Okhotsk will begin to fracture and break up. There may also be increasing fracturing of ice in the Kara Sea as warmer temperatures spread over this region during the next 3 days.

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Snow melt over the interior of Siberia have increased flow on rivers that drain into the Arctic Ocean. In this example, where rivers meet 'shorefast ice' channels are cut, very much resembling some of the world's more renown river deltas. The greenish/brown colour of the ice along the left side of the image, fringing the delta pattern in the ice, is where water has flown on top of the fast ice, melting the overlaying snow cover.


Extent difference


Fig.6 - Difference in sea-ice extent between 2009 and recent years.



Melt Rate


Fig.7 - 2009(blue) daily melt rate of Arctic sea-ice compared to 2008(red).

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Fig.8 - 2009(blue) daily melt rate of Arctic sea-ice compared to 2007(magenta).

*Data retrieved from JAXA


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Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings
Fig.9 - Current watches, warning and advisories issued by the National Weather Service. Courtesy of NOAA.

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Forecast Discussion


Synopsis - Issued - 6/03 @9:45am


An active pattern for the southern half of the region is forthcoming the next several days as daily shortwave passages will keep chances for showers and thunderstorms going through the end of the week. On the flip side, relatively quiet weather will prevail over the northern half of the region outside a couple isolated showers this afternoon. This weekend the Northeast will be sandwiched between systems to start with moderating temperatures and increasing humidity, though, by Sunday a lobe in the longwave trough will slide across southern Canada, possibly dropping a trough into the region leading to increased chances for showers and storms. The storm track continues to remain close to the region as we head into next week.


Short-term - Issued - 6/03 @9:45am


A minor mid-level disturbance is tracking offshore this morning, providing some showers and thunderstorms to coastal areas, mainly from New Jersey north to Long Island. Subsidence behind this disturbance has allowed for a small area of clearing across eastern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey, southeastern interior New York and southern New England. To the west the next system is already making its presence felt across western Pennsylvania as additional showers and thundershowers are marching east-northeast across the commonwealth. A band of mainly mid/upper level cloudiness extends across central New York/New England with mainly clear skies across the north, save northern Maine where a stratocumulus deck is making for a gray start to the day. Temperatures have quickly risen into the 40’s and 50’s north, 50’s and 60’s south.

A shortwave will track along the Mason-Dixon Line today, setting off showers and thunderstorms across the southern half of the region. A good chance for severe weather will exist this afternoon in the warm sector, mainly south of I-70, where varying levels of sun will aid in destabilization and fairly muggy dewpoints in the low to mid 60’s will encroach on the region, leading to CAPE approaching 1,000J/kg. Slight amplification of the persistent longwave trough over eastern Canada will result in lowering heights and increasing winds aloft. In fact, a rather healthy 140kt jet streak will be positioned over northern New England and the Canadian Maritimes, the southern half of the region in the dynamically favorable right-rear quad. Unidirectional 20-30kt 850mb flow increases to near 60kts @500mb providing the necessary shear to possibly organize storms into a line but feel mainly multi-clusters and a few supercells will dominate the landscape from south-central Pennsylvania to central/southern New Jersey. These storms will be capable of producing damaging winds over 60mph and hail over 1” in diameter. A little further to the north the severe threat lessens and the precipitation mainly takes on a stratiform nature, especially towards the NY/PA border. With lowering heights from the trough amplification to the north and the passage of the shortwave to the south, frontogenesis in the mid-levels will increase leading to rain and thundershowers breaking out across the northern tier of Pennsylvania and the southern tier of New York east-southeastwards to southern New England. The subsidence behind the departing shortwave of last night will provide several hours of sunshine along the coastal plain helping to destabilize the atmosphere for storms, but drier airmass (dewpoints in the 50’s) and lower temperatures will lead to a less buoyant atmosphere than neighbors to the south. Basin average rainfall should be around a quarter to half in inch in the showery north to three quarters of an inch in the stormy south, though areas that receive strong/persistent thunderstorms could get 1-2 inches of rain today. Mid/high clouds will continue to stream across central New York/New England throughout the day with varying levels of clouds across northern New York and New England. Temperatures today will vary wildly over the Northeast. Much of the region across the northern interior will see highs range from the mid 60’s to low 70’s. However, the northern tier of Pennsylvania will struggle to climb out of the 50’s today with the rain, low clouds and fog. Temperatures quickly rise to the east where several hours of sun this morning will push highs into the upper 60’s to mid 70’s and in our unstable warm sector south of I-70, low 70’s to near 80°F temperatures will rise.

Drier air pushes south from Canada tonight as today’s shortwave ejects offshore. Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing during the evening hours along the coastal plain but the severe threat will be quickly diminishing with the loss of insolation. Cannot rule out any remnant showers and thunderstorms moving east from the Ohio Valley affecting the southern tier of Pennsylvania from additional shortwaves riding along the stationary frontal boundary over the northern Mid-Atlantic but all points north will be precipitation-free after midnight, aside from coastal southern New England and Long Island. Several hours of clear skies across northern New York and Vermont may allow for enough radiational cooling for the formation of frost in those higher elevation sheltered valley locales. Otherwise, varying levels of cloudiness throughout the region will keep lows in the 40’s and 50’s throughout the interior with 60’s along the coastal plain and across the southern tier of Pennsylvania.

Weak surface ridge axis extending from high pressure over the Upper Midwest to New England will provide the northern half of the region with fair skies for Thursday. With the dip in the trough slightly lifting, the stalled frontal boundary over the Mid-Atlantic will start to creep back north. Showers and thunderstorms will once again increase in coverage across Pennsylvania and New Jersey during the afternoon hours. Rainfall may once again approach half an inch during the day on Thursday. Temperatures will run in the 60’s across northern New York and New England with 70’s elsewhere across the region, though a ribbon of 60’s may bisect those 70’s across the northern tier of Pennsylvania into the Catskills as clouds and perhaps a few showers by later in the afternoon keep temperatures down.

Little change in the pattern expected Thursday night with showers continuing over southern Pennsylvania and New Jersey and mainly fair skies elsewhere. Lows will drop into the 40’s and 50’s across the interior and northern coastal plain with a few low to mid 60’s along the southern coastal plain where the sub-tropical airmass will once again be taking up residence.




Mid-term - Issued - 6/03 @9:45am

Low pressure organizing over the Southeast today and tomorrow will move along the Mid-Atlantic coastal plain to just off the Jersey Coast on Friday. This system will carry tons of moisture up the coast with the now 80°F+ waters of the Gulf tapped. With a solid 1-2 inches of rain expected over the next 48 hours before this system arrives and perhaps another 2-3 inches falling, some minor flooding problems may result across southern New Jersey as the ground becomes increasingly saturated. Dry northeasterly flow capping the northwestern fringes of the low will ensure a rather sharp cut-off boundary to the precipitation, likely back around the I-81 corridor across Pennsylvania and I-88 to I-90 across New York and New England. Outside of the heavy rain threat area of extreme southeastern Pennsylvania and southern New Jersey rainfall should average half an inch to an inch. Good news for the gardens. Further north and west, skies will clear and temperatures should be a few degrees warmer as a result. Highs should climb into the 70’s away from the system with mainly 60’s expected where clouds and precipitation dominate. The low will shove out to sea Friday night with rain ending. Lows will be near average to a few degrees below for early June. Fair skies continue on Saturday and the airmass will be moderating. Highs should climb into the 70’s and 80’s.


Long-term - Issued - 6/03 @9:45am


A digging trough in the center of the nation will begin to send shortwaves rippling towards the Northeast once again in the long term portion of the forecast. The first to arrive on Sunday looks to affect mainly the northern half of the region while the southern half of the region possibly sizzles. 80’s should cover most of the region with a few spot 90°F readings from south-central Pennsylvania to the urban centers along the coastal plain. As heights lower and the jet drops a bit further south, activity will follow with most areas under threat for showers and storms Monday and Tuesday of next week above climatology.


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Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar
Fig.10 - Radar loop of the Northeast region. Courtesy of Weather Underground.


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Local SST's

Northeast SST's
Fig.11 Sea-surface temperatures off the Northeast Coast. Courtesy of NOAA.


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Updated: 11:26 AM GMT on June 05, 2009

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About sullivanweather

Thomas is an avid weather enthusiast, landscaper and organic gardener. This blog is dedicated to Northeast and tropical weather forecasting. Enjoy!

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