Northeast Weather Blog

Louisiana prepares for Gustav

By: sullivanweather, 9:34 PM GMT on August 31, 2008

Tropical Update


Hurricane Gustav


Auto-updating IR color enhanced satellite image of Hurricane Gustav.



As per the 8/31 4pm CDT National Hurricane Center advisory, Hurricane Gustav was located at 26.4°N 87.3°W, or about 215 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River. Gustav is moving towards the northwest at 18mph. Maximum sustained winds are 115mph with a 957mb estimated central pressure. Gustav is a major category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale.


Since encountering Cuba, Gustav has failed to regain the inner core structure it displayed yesterday that allowed the hurricane to strengthen to nearly a category 5 storm. Gustav has become an asymmetric upon moving into the Gulf of Mexico, as southerly shear has thus far not allowed for any significant strengthening. This has also caused Gustav to accelerate northwestwards at a pretty good clip, with landfall now predicted along the Louisiana Coast sometime Monday morning at the mouth of the Mississippi River. The eye of Gustav has been ragged throughout the day, occasionally clouding over with cirrus outflow.

The steering flow over the northern Gulf will be crucial over the next 12 hours as the current track of Gustav extrapolated out would bring the center ashore, south of New Orleans and passing just west of the city by 15 miles. This would put New Orleans in the right front quadrant, and perhaps an eyewall passage. However, it does appear Gustav will bear slightly towards the west as it approaches shore, feeling the influence of the high to the north, which would spare New Orleans the worst of the storm but they may still see flooding rainfall and some hurricane force winds in gusts. A more pronounced turn towards the west should occur as the system loses its vertical structure and begins to be steered by the lower level flow. Unfortunately, the steering currents weaken as the remnants of Gustav moves towards the Arklatex, where Gustav may rain itself out, or linger for an uncomfortably long amount of time before moving into the westerlies. Inland flooding appears likely from Gustav in the long term.

As mentioned above, southerly wind shear has thus far prevented any strengthening of Gustav during the day, with rising pressures during the morning and pressure recently falling once again, but otherwise remaining in the upper 950mb’s. As Gustav approaches the northern Gulf Coast overnight the upper wind flow veers from the east more, inducing the westward bend in track and possibly allowing for a small window for intensification. The southerly shear over Gustav has prevented the system from wrapping strong convection completely around the center, but this weakened shear later on just may be the shot in the arm Gustav is seeking. With only marginal conditions for strengthening expected, the most I foresee Gustav strengthening to, if doing so, is a borderline 3/4 storm. It’s most likely Gustav will maintain itself as a 115-120mph category 3 storm. There’s also a small chance that the cyclone will weaken to a category 2 before coming ashore. Unlike Fay’s Cape Romano landfall, Gustav should weaken quickly upon moving ashore to a tropical storm within 12 hours and a depression within 24 hours.

With Gustav coming ashore the Gulf of Mexico is likely to reclaim more of the Mississippi River Delta, as this area continues to lose wetlands to the sea. Gustav is a medium/large tropical cyclone and should bring a 10-14’ storm surge where the eye comes ashore and up to 25 miles east. To the immediate west of the eye’s landfall location storm surge is likely to be 8-10’, dropping a foot or so every 15 miles west. To the east of the eye, around the LA/MS border region and Lake Ponchartrain surge should be 5-10’ which would give the levee system an uncomfortable early test, but this could be much more if the eye makes landfall further east. Along the Mississippi and Alabama coasts surge should range from 2-5’ and generally 2’ or less towards the Florida panhandle.

Rainfall from Gustav is likely to cause flooding, especially since there’s wet antedecent conditions left in the wake of Fay. Amounts should range from 4-8 inches with isolated 12 inch amounts in the landfall region and points east about 50 miles, with amounts tapering to a few inches across eastern Mississippi, Alabama, Florida and Georgia. Across western Louisiana, southern Arkansas, eastern Texas and Southeastern Oklahoma, rainfall amounts may be extreme as Gustav moves slowly across the region. 5-10 inch amounts with isolated amounts up to 15 inches or more should occur close to where the circulation center tracks.

As always with landfalling tropical cyclones, the frictional component of the land will make for a tornado risk. Feeder bands in the eastern semicircle are notorious tornado producers, so areas from Mississippi, Alabama, the Florida panhandle and western Georgia are at most risk. As Gustav spins down the wind field around the storm will weaken, but cloud cover will decrease, so the lack of kinematics will be made up for with thermodynamics and the tornado threat will continue, shifting west across Louisiana and Arkansas.




Tropical Storm Hanna


Auto-updating IR color enhanced satellite image of Tropical Storm Hanna.



Tropical Storm Hanna has the look of a sub-tropical system this afternoon as northeasterly wind shear is really taking a toll on the system. Hanna is located directly under a developing jet streak diving into the western Caribbean, due in part to the outflow pattern from Gustav. Convection continues to fire around the center of Hanna but quickly get sheared southeastwards and on a couple occasions today it appeared as if the mid-level center got ripped away from the low-level center. It’s not a certainty that Hanna will survive this amount of wind shear for too much longer, but as Gustav moves away from Hanna’s relative position to it and weakens, the upper level flow over the western Atlantic will weaken, lessening the shear over the region. Should Hanna survive the shear over the next 36-48 hours it could find itself in a much better environment for strengthening. The Bermuda high will build west, taking Hanna on a west-northwesterly to northwesterly course towards the Carolina Coast. Sea surface temperatures are 27-28°C and shear is likely to remain 15kts or less along Hanna’s trek towards the coast and the storm may intensify into a hurricane.

In the long term, Hanna is likely to be very close to the Carolina coastline and moving north around the western periphery of the Bermuda high. Areas up the coast in the Northeast may see Hanna as well, if she happens to remain just offshore or hug the coast which is a possible scenario. Residents of the East Coast need to keep a close eye on Hanna over the next week.



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Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings

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Regional Forecast


Coming later...
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Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar


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Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.



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August Daily Weather Statistics

August 1st - 79°F/57°F....0.00"....60%
August 2nd - 75°F/59°F....0.52"....40%
August 3rd - 75°F/55°F....0.09"....50%
August 4th - 76°F/57°F....0.00"....75%
August 5th - 80°F/55°F....0.00"....60%
August 6th - 80°F/64°F....0.71"....30%
August 7th - 77°F/57°F....0.03"....40%
August 8th - 71°F/57°F....0.07"....30%
August 9th - 76°F/55°F....0.00"....70%
August 10th - 68°F/52°F....0.32"....15%
August 11th - 64°F/57°F....0.11"....10%
August 12th - 72°F/59°F....0.23"....40%
August 13th - 73°F/50°F....0.00"....65%
August 14th - 79°F/60°F....0.30"....60%
August 15th - 71°F/57°F....0.03"....20%
August 16th - 73°F/55°F....0.04"....60%
August 17th - 78°F/50°F....0.00"....80%
August 18th - 80°F/55°F....0.00"....80%
August 19th - 71°F/51°F....0.26"....40%
August 20th - 72°F/43°F....0.00"....100%
August 21st - 78°F/46°F....0.00"....100%
August 22nd - 81°F/54°F....0.00"....95%
August 23rd - 79°F/52°F....0.00"....80%
August 24th - 81°F/58°F....0.00"....40%
August 25th - 75°F/60°F....0.19"....40%
August 26th - 73°F/45°F....0.00"....90%
August 27th - 73°F/46°F....0.00"....90%
August 28th - 76°F/50°F....0.00"....50%

Updated: 10:04 PM GMT on August 31, 2008

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Tropical threats

By: sullivanweather, 10:20 AM GMT on August 29, 2008

Tropical Update

8/30 Update!!!

As per the 8/30 5am EDT National Hurricane Center advisory, Hurricane Gustav was located at 20.2°N 81.3°W, or about 135 miles southeast of the Isle of Youth. Gustav is moving towards the northwest at 12mph. Maximum sustained winds are 110mph with a 965mb estimated central pressure. Gustav is a strong category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale.



I believe it safe to say that Gustav is currently placing its reservation on the retired names list. A period of rapid intensification appears to have commenced and the storm looks frightening coming out of the satellite eclipse period. A ring of deep convection now surrounds an increasingly well-defined eye. The inner-core structure of the storm is vastly improved and the storm will be taking on a classic buzzsaw-shape, with a well-defined eye placed directly in the center of a strong CDO. Outflow remains good to excellent in all quadrants as an upper level anti-cyclone continues to vent Gustav well. It is now almost certain that Gustav will become a major hurricane today and will likely reach category 4 status by this afternoon. This is an extremely dangerous situation developing for the western tip of Cuba, as a potentially catastrophic hit from Gustav will occur during the overnight.

Interaction with Cuba will weaken Gustav some but the storm should quickly reintensify over the warm Gulf waters. Gustav will take a northwesterly course towards the north-central Gulf and will likely be location south of the mouth of the Mississippi River Monday evening as a major hurricane. Once again, residents from Panama City to Houston and inland locations as well, due to a significant inland flooding threat, need to follow up on the latest with Gustav. Models have trended west but with Gustav’s expected size areas even up to 100 miles east of the point of landfall may see hurricane force winds, including up to a 10 foot storm surge. Now is not the time to let down your guard! An inland flooding risk exists with Gustav, as mentioned above. A blocking ridge over the Ohio Valley with an axis extending back towards the Southern Plains should halt the forward movement of Gustav either just offshore, but more likely inland of the coast 50-150 miles. Incredible rainfall amounts should materialize should this occur.


Previous discussion


As they say, “This is where the plot thickens”

As per the 8/29 5am EDT National Hurricane Center advisory, Tropical Storm Gustav was located at 18.1°N 78.1°W, just off the western Jamaica coast and about 220 miles east-southeast of Grand Cayman. Gustav is moving towards the west-northwest at 8mph. Maximum sustained winds are 65mph with a 991mb estimated central pressure.

Hurricane Gustav


Auto-updating IR color enhanced satellite image of Hurricane Gustav.


After straddling the south coast of Jamaica over the last 18 hours, the center of tropical storm Gustav is now offshore and moving towards open waters. The upper environment is extremely favorable with an anti-cyclone sitting atop Gustav. Outflow is good to excellent, expanding in all quadrants. Intermittent moderate to strong convection has been flaring over the center while a well-defined cyclonically curved band of strong convection wraps around the northern and eastern quadrants. Satellite presentation of the storm is of a classic ‘9’ shape with two pronounced feeder bands having developed overnight; one extending into the south-central Caribbean and the second extending into the northwest Caribbean. All indications are for immediate intensification once away from the detrimental influence of Jamaica. Gustav will likely regain its hurricane status by this afternoon and may quickly move up the Saffir-Simpson scale. It cannot be stressed enough the heat potential of the waters Gustav finds itself in. It wouldn’t be going out on a limb to say rapid intensification, by definition, should occur.

The path of Gustav takes the center of the storm directly towards the Cayman Islands, arriving there sometime this evening. However, during its approach, the aforementioned trailing feeder band will move across Jamaica, already primed from Gustav’s rains yesterday. Mudslides and flash flooding are likely to occur over widespread areas as this band slowly moves through. Gustav will be a rapidly strengthening hurricane by this evening as it moves by the Cayman’s, a borderline 1/2 storm and possibly stronger. Gustav will begin to near the western periphery of the upper ridge over the Bahamas on Saturday and turn on a more northwesterly course and start to put a move on. Continued strengthening to a major hurricane should occur, as there’s no obstruction to development to be seen. The last landmass Gustav may encounter while finding its way towards the Gulf of Mexico will be the western tip of Cuba. In another nighttime appearance, Gustav’s next stop on the Americas Tour may be as a major hurricane. For several days models have insisted on a category 4 or 5 storm as it passes Cuba and continue to do so. This scenario is entirely possible and I would put chances of at least a major (category 3) hurricane strike to Cuba at 75%.

In what will be the start of a very tense week, Gustav will enter the Gulf of Mexico and beeline towards the northwest around 12-15kts. Whatever weakening brought about by interaction with Cuba will be short-lived and Gustav should remain a major hurricane as at approaches the US Mainland. As mentioned in the last blog, an upper ridge over the Southern Plains may extend far enough towards the east to bend the system west. Where this occurs, if this occurs, will be crucial. Worst-case scenario is Gustav moving towards Mobile, feels the tug of the ridge and bends west into the Mississippi River Delta area (yes, I’ll say it, New Orleans). The angle at which such a storm would track may be doomsday for the City of New Orleans as water gets pushed into Lake Pontchartrain in the right-front quadrant of the storm. Of course, the storm may not feel the effects of this ridge as much and may make landfall east of New Orleans or it may feel the ridge more and make a landfall more toward Beaumont. Gustav will likely slow down beyond 84 hours as well. This far out, it too tough pinpoint any location for landfall, but a US landfall is likely along the Gulf Coast from Houston to Panama City.


Tropical Storm Hanna


Auto-updating IR color enhanced satellite image of Tropical Storm Hanna.


As per the 8/29 5am EST National Hurricane Center advisory, the center of Tropical Storm Hanna was located at 21.7°N, 62.3°W, or about 245 miles north-northeast of the northernmost Leeward Islands. Hanna is moving towards the northwest around 14mph. Maximum sustained winds are around 50mph with a 1000mb estimated central pressure.


Tropical Storm Hanna isn’t the picture of cyclone health this morning. The upper low that has played havoc with Hanna almost immediately upon gaining her name continues to send shear over the system. Indications are this small, but potent, upper low will begin to outrun Hanna as they both move towards the west-northwest. It is also possible that the low-level center of Hanna makes a jump southeast towards the heavier convection. In all, the short-term future of Hanna is likely to remain a mystery until the upper low weakens and pulls away. Upon doing so, Hanna is likely to strengthen to a hurricane. SST’s are ~28°C, the surrounding environment is moist and upper level winds will be slackening, however it remains to be seen whether or not Gustav might send a shear package Hanna’s way. Regardless, favorable conditions will exist long enough for development into a hurricane. Once again, complication arises in the long term. There’s likely to be an upper trough/northern jet maximum over Florida and the Bahamas in Gustav’s wake as deep layer ridging develops over the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Downstream, a vertically stacked low will be spinning in place southeast of Nova Scotia. This all represents a blocky pattern over the western North Atlantic that’ll likely get Hanna caught in the low/mid level flow around the southeast side of the building positive height anomalies over the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast. Hence, an erratic movement will ensue that may take Hanna back towards the southwest into a very threatening position. With all attention of Gustav, a brewing storm may be lurking that-a-way -------->

Elsewhere in the Tropics

A large amplitude tropical wave stretches across the central Atlantic and has an area of low pressure located around 18.5°N 42°W along its axis. Very broad cyclonic turning of the low and mid level cloud field has been present with this wave since moving off the African coastline. Isolated to scattered moderate to strong convection has increased around the area of lowest pressure but wind shear is taking its toll on the system. Development into a tropical depression is not expected over the next day or so but if the low pressure along the wave axis manages to remain south of 20°N conditions may become more favorable for further development beyond 36 hours.

In addition, a very strong wave has just moved off the African coast late yesterday afternoon and overnight. Several models develop this wave quickly, perhaps a true-to-word Cape Verde system. The flare up of convection a couple hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde islands is worth mentioning as it's an intersting little flare-up, but most likely nothing will become of this as most of the convection is associated within the ITCZ.



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Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings

------


Regional Forecast


Coming later...
___________________________________________________________


Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar


___________________________________________________________

Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.



___________________________________________________________


August Daily Weather Statistics

August 1st - 79°F/57°F....0.00"....60%
August 2nd - 75°F/59°F....0.52"....40%
August 3rd - 75°F/55°F....0.09"....50%
August 4th - 76°F/57°F....0.00"....75%
August 5th - 80°F/55°F....0.00"....60%
August 6th - 80°F/64°F....0.71"....30%
August 7th - 77°F/57°F....0.03"....40%
August 8th - 71°F/57°F....0.07"....30%
August 9th - 76°F/55°F....0.00"....70%
August 10th - 68°F/52°F....0.32"....15%
August 11th - 64°F/57°F....0.11"....10%
August 12th - 72°F/59°F....0.23"....40%
August 13th - 73°F/50°F....0.00"....65%
August 14th - 79°F/60°F....0.30"....60%
August 15th - 71°F/57°F....0.03"....20%
August 16th - 73°F/55°F....0.04"....60%
August 17th - 78°F/50°F....0.00"....80%
August 18th - 80°F/55°F....0.00"....80%
August 19th - 71°F/51°F....0.26"....40%
August 20th - 72°F/43°F....0.00"....100%
August 21st - 78°F/46°F....0.00"....100%
August 22nd - 81°F/54°F....0.00"....95%
August 23rd - 79°F/52°F....0.00"....80%
August 24th - 81°F/58°F....0.00"....40%
August 25th - 75°F/60°F....0.19"....40%
August 26th - 73°F/45°F....0.00"....90%
August 27th - 73°F/46°F....0.00"....90%
August 28th - 76°F/50°F....0.00"....50%

Updated: 9:18 AM GMT on August 30, 2008

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Active tropics; Rain on the way for some.

By: sullivanweather, 9:33 PM GMT on August 26, 2008


Tropical Update


Tropical Depression Fay

The remnant circulation of former Tropical Storm Fay is centered over south-central Tennessee and continues to draw deep tropical moisture from the Gulf of Mexico over the drought-stricken Southeast. A large shield of rain extends from eastern Tennessee and Kentucky to upstate South Carolina, most of North Carolina and southwestern Virginia. To the south of this steady rain shield bands of showers and thunderstorms are marching across Georgia and the remainder of South Carolina. Some of these storms will have the potential to produce tornados given the cyclonic turning in the atmosphere over this region. Strong confluence over the northern Mid-Atlantic is halting the northward progression of the rain shield but as the blocking over the Northeast/Atlantic Canada relaxes some, the rain will spread north. Lingering ridge axis over New England will deflect most the precipitation from the remnants of Fay across New York, Pennsylvania and the eastern Ohio Valley. By the weekend Fay’s remnants will become caught by the westerlies and become indiscernible.


Hurricane Gustav


Auto-updating IR color enhanced satellite image of Hurricane Gustav.


As alluded to in yesterday’s blog, it had become painfully obvious that disturbance ‘94L’ was on the verge of a period of rapid intensification. Cyclonic turning of the cloud field, in which convective tops were a sustained –80°C, was indication that a tropical cyclone was in formation. This proved to be the case as reconnaissance found a tropical depression and soon thereafter a 50kt tropical storm. Gustav, the seasons’ 7th named storm, became a hurricane overnight and recently made landfall along the southern coast of Haiti with 75kt maximum sustained winds and a 981mb pressure.

At the 8/26 5PM EDT the National Hurricane Center’s advisory on Hurricane Gustav puts the center at 18.4°N, 73.2°W. Winds have weakened to 75mph and the pressure has risen to 992mb.

Since making landfall cloud tops have warmed some and the cloud pattern has deteriorated some. Interaction with the mountainous terrain of southeast Haiti will likely weaken the storm, perhaps back into a tropical storm over the next 6-12 hours. However, once back over open waters all indications are for further intensification. Upper levels are conducive with light shear aloft, atmospheric moisture content is high and oceanic heat content along the path of the cyclone could easily support a category 5 hurricane. The only factor impeding development will be interaction with land. The southeastern tip of Cuba lies along the northern fringe of near-term track possibilities but a building ridge over Florida and the Bahamas should induce a westward turn to Gustav’s track, likely keeping the storm over open water. This should bring about strengthening of Gustav into a major hurricane and some models even show Gustav attaining category 5 strength within the next 5 days. This is a distinct possibility since over the last decade the stretch of Atlantic Basin it will be traversing has supported category 5 storms the likes of Ivan, Emily, Katrina, Rita, Wilma, and Dean. Only three other category 5 storms have formed outside of this region over the last decade, Felix last year in the central Caribbean, Mitch in late October of 1998 just north of Honduras and the impressive annular Hurricane Isabel north of Puerto Rico for a couple days back in 2003. Of course, we all remember the other ‘G’ storm to roil these waters, Gilbert back in 1988, which held the Atlantic Basin low barometric pressure of 888mb until 2005.


THCP (tropical cyclone heat potential) is well over 100kJ/cm2 along the projected path of Gustav. The blue area just south of Cuba is a glitch in the data.

The aforementioned mid/upper ridge developing to the north of Gustav will induce a westward bend in the forward motion of the storm. Where this westward bend occurs will be crucial to the short-term intensity of Gustav. If this occurs too late, the storm center may come ashore southeastern Cuba. At this time, belief is that Gustav will travel just south of Cuba and remain over open waters to the south of the island. This ridge should persist to the north of the cyclone for 2-3 days, which places the storm near the Yucatan Channel in 72 hours. A break in the ridge over the Southeast as a mid-latitude slides by to the north should draw the storm towards the northwest and slow its forward motion in days 4 and 5. Gustav should then move into the south-central Gulf of Mexico with eyes on the Gulf Coast from central Mexico to the mouth of the Mississippi River. Current global model indications are that an upper ridge will expand east from central Texas that may turn the storm back towards the west. Narrowing in on an area of highest threat gives me Tampico, Mexico to Houston, Texas along the west Gulf Coast.


95L


Auto-updating IR color enhanced satellite image of disturbance 95L.



Good ol’ 95L is still with us, currently a couple hundred miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. Despite being under moderate upper level shear, 95L has yet to look better than it does now. Interaction with an approaching upper trough is aiding in convective development in diffluent flow aloft. Also, a surface circulation is now apparent on visible satellite imagery, which shows up at 20.5°N 57.0°W. Most of the convection associated with 95L is east of the low-level turning noted due to the shear over the disturbance. Some dry air surrounds the system, which combined with the shear should impede development. It remains to be seen whether these hostile factors will continue over the system. Several models show 95L becoming quite a hurricane northeast of the Bahamas in several days so it’s certainly worth keeping an eye on.


Elsewhere in the Tropics


METEOSAT-8 image of possible future 96L centered southeast of the Cape Verde Islands. Image updates every 6 hours.


A strong tropical wave is located close by the Cape Verde Islands this afternoon and should be slapped with the next invest tag shortly. There’s a large moisture envelope associated with this wave and strong convection to the south of an area of broad cyclonic turning. Also apparent is the very large amplitude of this wave, so should it get going, it will be doing so slowly. This may be one of those slow rolling, classic Cape Verde systems that may fight for headlines with Gustav in about a week. We’ll see but conditions are ripe for development.


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Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings

------


Regional Forecast


Synopsis - Issued 8/25 @ 4:25am

In almost a repeat of last week, a strong but moisture-starved cold front will sweep through the Northeast in the beginning of the week bringing early Autumn-like weather for a couple days. Also, like last week, strong surface high pressure will build over the region bringing mainly sunny skies with warm afternoons and cool overnights. This wild card this week will be the remnants of Fay, which will spread moisture towards the region by Thursday through Saturday. Blocking pattern over the western Atlantic/Canadian Maritimes may prevent much of this moisture from completely spreading over the entire Northeast, but southern sections should receive a couple days of scattered showers and thunderstorms whereas northern sections are touch and go. A stronger trough approaches once again for Sunday and next Monday but the air behind this trough doesn't look as chilly as the current front, so temperatures should remain near normal heading into next week.

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Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar


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Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.



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August Daily Weather Statistics

August 1st - 79°F/57°F....0.00"....60%
August 2nd - 75°F/59°F....0.52"....40%
August 3rd - 75°F/55°F....0.09"....50%
August 4th - 76°F/57°F....0.00"....75%
August 5th - 80°F/55°F....0.00"....60%
August 6th - 80°F/64°F....0.71"....30%
August 7th - 77°F/57°F....0.03"....40%
August 8th - 71°F/57°F....0.07"....30%
August 9th - 76°F/55°F....0.00"....70%
August 10th - 68°F/52°F....0.32"....15%
August 11th - 64°F/57°F....0.11"....10%
August 12th - 72°F/59°F....0.23"....40%
August 13th - 73°F/50°F....0.00"....65%
August 14th - 79°F/60°F....0.30"....60%
August 15th - 71°F/57°F....0.03"....20%
August 16th - 73°F/55°F....0.04"....60%
August 17th - 78°F/50°F....0.00"....80%
August 18th - 80°F/55°F....0.00"....80%
August 19th - 71°F/51°F....0.26"....40%
August 20th - 72°F/43°F....0.00"....100%
August 21st - 78°F/46°F....0.00"....100%
August 22nd - 81°F/54°F....0.00"....95%

Updated: 9:41 PM GMT on August 26, 2008

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Cold front passage today/tropics

By: sullivanweather, 8:38 AM GMT on August 25, 2008

Warnings, advisories and storm reports during the previous 72 hours. Click on map to view individual reports.


storm reports




Northern New England storm reports


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Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings

------


Regional Forecast


Synopsis - Issued 8/25 @ 4:25am

In almost a repeat of last week, a strong but moisture-starved cold front will sweep through the Northeast in the beginning of the week bringing early Autumn-like weather for a couple days. Also, like last week, strong surface high pressure will build over the region bringing mainly sunny skies with warm afternoons and cool overnights. This wild card this week will be the remnants of Fay, which will spread moisture towards the region by Thursday through Saturday. Blocking pattern over the western Atlantic/Canadian Maritimes may prevent much of this moisture from completely spreading over the entire Northeast, but southern sections should receive a couple days of scattered showers and thunderstorms whereas northern sections are touch and go. A stronger trough approaches once again for Sunday and next Monday but the air behind this trough doesn't look as chilly as the current front, so temperatures should remain near normal heading into next week.


Short-term - coming soon.


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Tropical Update


Tropical Depression Fay



Tropical depression Fay continues to deliver heavy rain and thunderstorms to the Southeast. The remnant circulation is over south-central Mississippi with a solid cyclonically curved band of heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms of about 50 miles in length extending along the eastern and southern flanks of the circulation center. Additional showers and storms are rotating around the depression over northern Georgia and along the Kentucky-Tennessee state border. There's still a large envelope of moisture around the circulation center that will give rise to numerous showers and thunderstorms with diurnal heating. Cyclonic flow will support a continued tornadic threat with these storms on Monday. After Monday the remnants may finally begin to make a move north and northeastward as a trough moves into the center of the nation. This trough should eventually sweep most of the moisture leftover from Fay into the mid-latitudes.



94L


The disturbance, 94L, has become much better organized over the last 12-24 hours and is now on the verge of becoming the 7th tropical depression of the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season. A mid-level circulation has been apparent with this system for quite some time but a surface circulation has yet to materialize until perhaps now. Banding features are starting to become noticeable on IR satellite imagery, although a recent microwave pass that would have confirmed this missed the disturbance. Strong convection has coalesced around the presumed low-level center and an upper level anti-cyclone rests atop the system. The disturbance is also situated to the south of the base of a deep upper trough, which is aiding in the development of a nice poleward outflow channel.

As of this writing the disturbance is centered roughly around 14.5°N 68.5°W, moving west-northwestward, or around 285°, around 13mph. This general motion should continue over the next 24-36 hours. The gain in latitude into a moist, low-shear environment and movement away from the South American landmass all favor continued development of this system. Sea surface temperatures are balmy and those warm waters extend to a decent depth. TCHP along the projected path of the disturbance is generally above 80kJ/cm and rises above 100kJ/cm between Jamaica and the Yucatan Peninsula. Given the favorable upper/high moisture content environment and excellent fuel source there’s a chance for quick intensification upon development. A deep-layer ridge is forecast to persist over the northern Gulf to the Bahamas in days 3-5 but a weakness develops around 85°W near day 6. By this time the disturbance should have moved on a west-northwestward course to 95-105°W so it is unlikely that this system will be swept north into the US, although this is still a possibility. However, what’s most probable right now is a course that would take this system towards the Yucatan Peninsula and eventually into the Mexican Mainland. All interests in the central and western Caribbean should closely monitor the very latest with this system and begin to take some preliminary steps to prepare for a strong tropical cyclone.




95L


The disturbance, 95L, has encountered hostile upper level winds and is currently being sheared apart. This disturbance should be of little consequence over the next 2-3 days.


Elsewhere in the tropics

A tropical wave is along 33°W, south of 17°N with an area of low pressure near 13°N along the wave axis. There's broad cyclonic turning in the low and mid-level cloud field associated with this wave. Convection close to the center, which had been present yesterday, has waned and now is mostly confined to within the ITCZ. Development of this system is not anticipated in the short-term but will need to be watched upon entering the central Atlantic.


Behind this wave another strong wave has recently moved off the African Coast. A couple models develop this seedling into a tropical cyclone rather quickly so this feature will need to be monitored closely. Two more strong waves are to follow this week. Cape Verde season is in full swing!

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Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar


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Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.



___________________________________________________________


August Daily Weather Statistics

August 1st - 79°F/57°F....0.00"....60%
August 2nd - 75°F/59°F....0.52"....40%
August 3rd - 75°F/55°F....0.09"....50%
August 4th - 76°F/57°F....0.00"....75%
August 5th - 80°F/55°F....0.00"....60%
August 6th - 80°F/64°F....0.71"....30%
August 7th - 77°F/57°F....0.03"....40%
August 8th - 71°F/57°F....0.07"....30%
August 9th - 76°F/55°F....0.00"....70%
August 10th - 68°F/52°F....0.32"....15%
August 11th - 64°F/57°F....0.11"....10%
August 12th - 72°F/59°F....0.23"....40%
August 13th - 73°F/50°F....0.00"....65%
August 14th - 79°F/60°F....0.30"....60%
August 15th - 71°F/57°F....0.03"....20%
August 16th - 73°F/55°F....0.04"....60%
August 17th - 78°F/50°F....0.00"....80%
August 18th - 80°F/55°F....0.00"....80%
August 19th - 71°F/51°F....0.26"....40%
August 20th - 72°F/43°F....0.00"....100%
August 21st - 78°F/46°F....0.00"....100%
August 22nd - 81°F/54°F....0.00"....95%

Permalink

Summer holding on

By: sullivanweather, 9:21 AM GMT on August 23, 2008

Warnings, advisories and storm reports during the previous 72 hours. Click on map to view individual reports.


storm reports




Northern New England storm reports


___________________________________________________________



Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings

------


Regional Forecast


Synopsis - Issued 8/23 @5:20am


It’ll be another beautiful late-summer day on Saturday with mostly sunny skies and temperatures running slightly above normal. A cold front will approach western sections late in the day on Sunday spreading clouds and showers into the area by dusk while all points east squeak out another fine day. The cold front continues through the Northeast Sunday night and Monday with widely scattered showers and a few rumbles of thunder. Mostly sunny skies and warming temperatures follow as heights build once again by midweek. A deep layer ridge axis sets up along the Northeast Coast Tuesday and Wednesday, then the remnants of Fay may deliver some moisture to the region by Thursday and Friday. The sub-tropical jet will be moving up the Appalachians possibly dragging whatever’s left of Fay with it. With no appreciable rain over the last week and none in the future until the possible remnants of Fay arrive, her moisture would be welcome despite the wet year thus far.


Short-term - Issued 8/23 @5:20am


The western edge of a deep layer ridge axis extending out into the western North Atlantic remains in place of the Northeast. This feature has been with us since Wednesday and continues to deliver superb weather as sunny skies have graced the mornings and afternoons with great sleeping weather at night. The airmass has steadily warmed since Wednesday, from an early autumn feel to something a bit more summer-like, minus the humidity. As for today, it’ll once again be mostly sunny and warm. There may be some patchy fog around the valleys and waterways early but this should burn off quick. 850mb temps will range from 16-18°C across the international border region and closer to 13-15°C along the coast. This should bring most locales up into the 80’s with higher elevations above 2500’ climbing into the 70’s. High clouds will increase during the afternoon as some exit region spillover from scattered convection over the Great Lakes region makes it into the Northeast. Temperatures drop quickly after dusk with thin/no cloud cover and relatively dry air remaining over the Northeast. Some leftover convective activity over Michigan and southern Ontario may sneak into the Niagara Frontier late in the overnight but for the most part skies will be mostly clear. Lows will bottom out in the upper 40’s to near 60°F across the interior with low to mid 60’s along the coastal plain.


Mid-term - Issued 8/23 @5:20am


The western periphery of the ridge axis begins to erode on Sunday as a trough approaches from the west. Much of the dynamics with this trough will be well north of the region over Hudson Bay. Here in the Northeast we’ll see a simple cold frontal passage; one with limited moisture. However, this feature doesn’t arrive until later in the day. Beforehand, the recent trend of mostly sunny skies and warm temperatures after another coolish and somewhat foggy start will once again repeat itself. There will be more cloudiness spread throughout the region than in days previous but the deck should be thin, for the most part, and should do little to impede insolation. A more uniform temperature profile aloft will exist as well with 850mb temps ranging from 15-17°C region-wide. Afternoon highs will be similar to those of today with 80’s for most and 70’s in the higher terrain. Humidity will increase some as some moisture will be drawn out ahead of the approaching front. By mid-afternoon, with the approach of the front and a modestly unstable airmass out ahead of it (mlCAPE ~1,000J/kg), some scattered thunderstorms will fire up over western New York and Pennsylvania. Favorable right-rear entrance region of an 80kt jet will reside just north of the border over southern Ontario, PVA looks weak and there’s hardly any omega in low/mid-levels. Shear is also forecast to remain weak, generally under 30kts. There just won’t be much upper support for storms and boundary layer conditions will be only marginal. With waning instability heading into Sunday overnight and early Monday morning, precipitation will be isolated at best. Model output only spits out a tenth of an inch or less for most locales with the passage of the cold front through the region Sunday through Monday. A few locations may pick up to an half inch if favorably placed under a storm but for the most part rainfall amounts will be light. Certainly no help to alleviate the recent dry spell. It’ll clear out quickly behind the front as a surface high pressure quickly builds in. 850mb temps take quite a tumble over northern New York and New England, dropping some 10-14°C while cool air penetrates little towards the south as areas along the Mason-Dixon line hardly see any change in temperatures aloft at all. Across the north highs on Monday will be some 10-15 degrees cooler than those of Sunday with less of a change towards the south. Surface high pressure crests over the Northeast Monday night bringing a great night for radiational cooling. Lows will fall into the low 40’s to low 50’s over the interior with upper 50’s to low 60’s along the coastal plain.



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Tropical Update


Tropical Storm Fay


Yes, Fay is still with us. I last updated my blog 5 days ago as Fay was making her second landfall at Cape Romano. Since then Fay has moved across the Florida peninsula and offshore into Atlantic waters near Melbourne, looped back and came back ashore north of Daytona Beach for her third Floridian landfall, moved back across the peninsula and into the extreme northeastern Gulf of Mexico where it recently made her fourth Floridan landfall near Carrabelle, Florida. Along Fay's slow erratic path flooding rains have occured with some locales north of Melbourne receiving rainfall totals of over two feet!

This morning Fay is located at 29.9°N, 84.9°W, or about 50 miles east-southeast of Panama City, Florida as per the 5am NHC advisory. Fay is moving westward around 8mph with maximum sustained winds around 45mph. The minimum central pressure with the cyclone is around 997mb. Fay's remarkable resilience to maintain tropical storm strength over land, even strengthening in some cases, has made her somewhat of an enigma. Thus far the cyclone has found enough water and flat marshy land under an incredibly favorable upper environment to maintain at least minimal tropical storm strength and deliver copius amounts of rain.

Fay's west to west-northwestward movement of generally under 10mph should continue for the next 48-60 hours, which would bring the circulation center back out over open water south of the Florida panhandle and bootheels of Alabama and Mississippi. With this bring the case, Fay will remain a modest tropical storm and may see her winds strengthen to near 50kts if she's able to stay over the water longer than 24 hours. What will hopefully be Fay's final landfall should occur from near the Panama City area to the Mississippi River delta area. An upper ridge will remain over Fay for at least the next 48 hours and possibly longer. Thus far Fay has shown that given this upper environment and proximity to water and/or warm saturated soil the ability to maintain minimal tropical storm strength and I expect this will be the cae. Beyond 72 hours an upper trough moving into the southern Plains should erode the western periphery of the upper-level anticyclone over Fay as a sub-tropical jet begins to develop over the lower Mississippi River Valley region. This should cause Fay to move further inland, weakening her to a depression and eventually bringing about extra-tropical transition. Fay's shield of rainfall will continue to produce flooding. Her slow movement will lead to 5-10" rainfall total over a widespread area from southern Georgia and northern Florida and eventually to southern Mississippi and Louisianna.




94L


This disturbance that was originally 94L is moving across the Lesser Antilles as an open wave at this time. However, the disturbance that was east of 94L over the past several days has come to within close enough proximity of 94L to apparently become incorporated into the invest area, I reckon. This eastern disturbance showed nice mid-level rotation yesterday on satellite imagery and has recently developed strong convection close to this mid-level center. Several computer models develop this disturbance into a tropical cyclone and there are signs of low-level rotation on shortwave IR satellite loops.




95L



Another dsiturbance several hundred miles northeast of 94L continues to flare up and die back. No development of this system is expected over the next 24-48 hours.


Elsewhere in the tropics

A very strong tropical wave will be moving off the coast of Africa in the next 24-48 hours. This system will have potential to quickly develop upon emerging off the coast if it's able to maintain it's convection.


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Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar


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Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.



___________________________________________________________


August Daily Weather Statistics

August 1st - 79°F/57°F....0.00"....60%
August 2nd - 75°F/59°F....0.52"....40%
August 3rd - 75°F/55°F....0.09"....50%
August 4th - 76°F/57°F....0.00"....75%
August 5th - 80°F/55°F....0.00"....60%
August 6th - 80°F/64°F....0.71"....30%
August 7th - 77°F/57°F....0.03"....40%
August 8th - 71°F/57°F....0.07"....30%
August 9th - 76°F/55°F....0.00"....70%
August 10th - 68°F/52°F....0.32"....15%
August 11th - 64°F/57°F....0.11"....10%
August 12th - 72°F/59°F....0.23"....40%
August 13th - 73°F/50°F....0.00"....65%
August 14th - 79°F/60°F....0.30"....60%
August 15th - 71°F/57°F....0.03"....20%
August 16th - 73°F/55°F....0.04"....60%
August 17th - 78°F/50°F....0.00"....80%
August 18th - 80°F/55°F....0.00"....80%
August 19th - 71°F/51°F....0.26"....40%
August 20th - 72°F/43°F....0.00"....100%
August 21st - 78°F/46°F....0.00"....100%
August 22nd - 81°F/54°F....0.00"....95%

Updated: 10:24 AM GMT on August 23, 2008

Permalink

Storms later then much cooler; warm-up by late week

By: sullivanweather, 10:38 AM GMT on August 18, 2008

Warnings, advisories and storm reports during the previous 72 hours. Click on map to view individual reports.


storm reports




Northern New England storm reports


___________________________________________________________



Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings

------


Regional Forecast


Synopsis - Issued 8/18 @6:30am

A vigorous shortwave trough will move across Ontario and Quebec on Monday and Tuesday, dropping a strong cold front into the Northeast. Showers and thunderstorms will accompany the frontal passage and much cooler air will filter in behind it. Surface high pressure settles over the region Tuesday night delivering a very chilly late summer night. This high will slowly translate offshore by Thursday as heights build aloft and temperatures moderate. By Friday into the weekend the heat and humidity builds to mid summer-like readings with chances for convection increasing by Saturday night and especially Sunday and Monday as the next trough approaches.


Short-term - Issued 8/18 @6:30am


A lone thundershower over Lake Erie may come ashore along the Pennsylvania-New York border early this morning but as for everyone else Monday should begin as a fine day with mostly sunny skies. Some patchy valley fog will be present but should quickly burn off by mid morning. Temperatures should rise rather quickly into the upper 70’s to mid 80’s by noon under nearly full sun, 12-16°C 850mb temps and mixing to about that level. A few locations may top out near 90°F across the urban corridor of New Jersey with some downsloping. Most other locales outside of the higher terrin will top out in the 80’s. Meanwhile, a sharp trough over Ontario will send a strong cold front towards the region. Areas along the US-Canadian border will be in the right rear entrance region of a developing 90-100kt jet streak @300mb over Quebec. Upper divergence will enhance the broad scale ascent ahead of the approaching trough, thanks in part to a strong shot of PVA. At the surface, moisture pooling ahead of the front combined with the warm airmass over the region will push surface based CAPE values over 1,000J/kg. Surface frontal boundary will initiate storms over Canada during the afternoon hours and slide southeastwards towards the US side of the border by evening. In addition, height falls eroding the northern and western flank of the cap over the region will allow storms to develop over the higher terrain and move eastwards. Winds aloft will increase dramatically during the course of the day. Strong unidirectional flow increases to 40-60kts @500mb, 30-40kts at 850mb by evening. Storms will easily be able to transfer these strong winds to the surface. Initial formation of storms should be cellular in nature but as evening approaches bulk shear will rise to 30-35kts so storms will organize into bowing line segments, especially along the actual cold front. Precipitable water values will range from 1.25-1.5” so any training or back-building of storms may result in flash flooding. Drier times over the past couple days has allowed more of a cushion to flash flooding over New England but the soil still remains wet. The cold front continues southeastward into the region during the overnight as storms weaken with the loss of heating. The warm moist airmass ahead of the front combined with cloud cover will hold up temperatures in the 70’s for the most part. Along and behind the front, precipitation will cool things into the 50’s and low 60’s. Some clearing will occur late that may push temperatures along the US-Canadian border down into the 40’s. A cool crisp breeze will follow in behind the front.

The front continues through the region on Tuesday without the same fanfare as today as the upper support for the system moves well northeast of the region towards the Davis Strait. Some scattered showers and maybe a rumble of thunder will be all that’s left of the front as it clears the southern half of the region. Elsewhere it will be cooler and much less humid. 850mb temps fall all the way down to 2°C over northern Maine with the 10°C isotherm south of the New York-Pennsylvania border. A refreshing, dry northwesterly breeze will give the day an early autumn feel. Some cumulus clouds will dot the region with the greatest concentration of cloud cover over the higher terrain of northern New York and New England. It wouldn’t be surprising if a few of these cumulus clouds produce a few sprinkles or a brief heavier shower, but these will be few and far between. There will be a sharp temperature gradient across the Northeast as areas south of the front climb into the 80’s, but towards the north temperatures will range from the low 60’s to low 70’s. Some locales across the higher terrain may just remain in the 50’s! Surface high begins to build into the Northeast Tuesday night, bringing clearing skies and light winds, aside from Maine. A good night for radiational cooling, temperatures are likely to plummet into the 40’s and 50’s. It may even dip into the 30’s across sheltered valleys in the Adirondacks and may very well be chilly enough for frost if the atmosphere is able to decouple early enough in the overnight. A great night for campfires!


Mid-term - Issued 8/18 @6:30am


The surface high crests over the Northeast on Wednesday as upper heights begin to build. This will be the first day of a moderating trend that will take temperatures back to normal means by Friday. Afternoon highs are likely to approach average by Thursday but overnight lows will remain below normal until Friday with a drier airmass over the region and lengthening night. It should remain dry throughout the mid-term (Wednesday-Friday).



Long-term - Issued 8/18 @6:30am


Deep layer ridge will be over the Northeast this weekend as increasing southerly flow begins to pump increased humidity levels into an already warm airmass. 850mb temps rise to 14-17°C on Saturday and Sunday, pushing surface temperatures back towards mid-summer readings. With the increase in heat and humidity, diurnal convection will begin to be a concern, although the lack of any synoptic triggers will make for mainly isolated activity, likely terrain enhanced, outflow boundary type pulse storms. A trough will begin to approach by Sunday night and Monday that should lead to a higher concentration of activity although it is still too early to tell whether or not any severe weather will occur with the feature. This trough will also bring an end to the brief return of summer.




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Tropical Update


Tropical Storm Fay


At 5:00AM EDT the center of Tropical Storm Fay was located at 25.9°N, 81.7°W along the Florida coast at Cape Romano, about 55 miles south of Fort Myers, Florida. Fay is moving towards the north-northeast around 9mph with a continuation of this heading and forward speed expected today. Maximum sustained winds are around 60mpg with higher gusts. Minimum pressure reported by reconiassance aircraft is near 989mb.

Fay’s appearance has improved over the previous 6 hours or so with the cyclone now having a well-defined CDO with the center of circulation now developing a partial eyewall on the northern semi-circle. Outflow remains poor in the southern and western quadrants but good to excellent in the northern and eastern quadrants. There’s not much time for Fay to strengthen into a hurricane, however, with the center of circulation now coming ashore. Once Fay does move ashore the cyclone should steadily weaken. In about 18-24 hours the center of Fay, whether still a tropical storm or downgraded to a depression, should emerge off the east coast of Florida over the open waters of the Atlantic. From there there’s a small window for re-strengthening to occur but the cyclone is not likely to attain hurricane strength before moving back ashore the Space Coast in 48-60 hours. In all, the cyclone stands very little chance to become a hurricane over the next three days.

The track of Fay becomes highly uncertain after 60-72 hours. A strong mid-latitude deep layer ridge will develop to the north of the cyclone following the passage of a strong cold frontal boundary that will be moving off the East Coast north of the Mason-Dixon line over the next 24 hours. The development of this high will likely slow and/or stall the cyclone either just off the east coast of Florida or just inland of the coast, halting its northward movement. Where Fay moves from there is anyone’s guess as several possibilities arise. It is possible that the high will influence a westward turn to Fay, pushing the storm across the Florida peninsula and back over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico where it will have the potential to re-strengthen, becoming a threat to the east side of the northern Gulf Coast. From there a trough dropping into the Midwest late in the week would likely pick up the storm and accelerate it to the northeast as it undergoes extra-tropical transition. Another possibility has the high not as prominent in the cyclones’ future track as Fay will still bend back towards the west but with a more northerly component. This would prevent the storm from emerging back out over the Gulf of Mexico and keep it inland over northern Florida or southern Georgia where Fay would likely become a remnant low. The good news from either scenario would be more beneficial rainfall to the Southeast as they struggle to come out of the grips of a prolonged drought.



94L



Fay isn’t the only game in town now as a strong tropical wave with an area of low pressure along its axis (94L) is showing signs of becoming a tropical depression. The center of the low pressure is located close to 12.5°N, 36.5°W moving towards the west around 8-10kts. Overnight, convection has become consolidated around the center of circulation and the only factor likely preventing this strong disturbance from being named a depression at 5am is persistence. However, I fully expect this disturbance to be named a depression and become the next named storm over the next 18-36 hours, as environmental conditions are favorable for further development. On a side note, the blow-up of convection east of the disturbance could become the next area of interest in the coming days.


The track of this disturbance will likely be just north of due west over the next 24-48 hours then hedge more towards the west-northwest or northwest as a weakness develops in the deep layer ridge to the north of the disturbance/potential cyclone upon reaching 50-55°W. Southwesterly wind shear may become detrimental to development beyond 72 hours as an upper trough axis is progged by models to be over the eastern Caribbean at that time. Whether or not this shear will rip apart the system, assuming it develops, or further hinders development, assuming it doesn’t, is unknown this far in the future. However, the projected moderate to high shear environment will at least slow down or halt the development of this system for some time. In the long range (beyond 5 days time) the deep layer sub-tropical ridge bridging the Atlantic looks to re-establish itself, which could potentially spell trouble for land areas to the west as easterlies expand across the Atlantic basin south of 25°N.

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Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar


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Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.



___________________________________________________________


August Daily Weather Statistics

August 1st - 79°F/57°F....0.00"....60%
August 2nd - 75°F/59°F....0.52"....40%
August 3rd - 75°F/55°F....0.09"....50%
August 4th - 76°F/57°F....0.00"....75%
August 5th - 80°F/55°F....0.00"....60%
August 6th - 80°F/64°F....0.71"....30%
August 7th - 77°F/57°F....0.03"....40%
August 8th - 71°F/57°F....0.07"....30%
August 9th - 76°F/55°F....0.00"....70%
August 10th - 68°F/52°F....0.32"....15%
August 11th - 64°F/57°F....0.11"....10%
August 12th - 72°F/59°F....0.23"....40%
August 13th - 73°F/50°F....0.00"....65%
August 14th - 79°F/60°F....0.30"....60%
August 15th - 71°F/57°F....0.03"....20%
August 16th - 73°F/55°F....0.04"....60%
August 17th - 78°F/50°F....0.00"....80%
August 18th - 80°F/55°F....0.00"....80%
August 19th - 71°F/51°F....0.26"....40%
August 20th - 72°F/43°F....0.00"....100%

Updated: 6:26 PM GMT on August 21, 2008

Permalink

More unsettled weather

By: sullivanweather, 9:34 AM GMT on August 14, 2008

Warnings, advisories and storm reports during the previous 72 hours. Click on map to view individual reports.


storm reports




Northern New England storm reports


___________________________________________________________



Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings

------


Regional Forecast


Synopsis - Issued 8/14 @5:25am



A powerful oceanic storm about 200miles offshore Delmarva, resembling a wintertime nor’easter, will take a northeastward course towards the Canadian Maritimes perhaps skirting Cape Cod and the Islands with some showers and gusty winds. Over the remainder of the Northeast an upper trough that has persisted over the region for quite some time now will help set off scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. A stronger spoke of shortwave energy rounds the base of the trough, moving into the lower Great Lakes on Friday. This feature will bring an increase in coverage of showers and thunderstorms over the western half of the region Friday; New England on Saturday. Transient area of high pressure slides through the region on Sunday followed by a backdoor front that should be accompanied by showers and storms to begin next week. Eyes will also be on the tropics as disturbance 92L now appears to be on the fast track to becoming Fay. Heights build by midweek as summer tries to mount a final comeback.


Near-term - Issued 8/14 @5:25am


A weak mid-level disturbance is currently moving through southeastern New York State as a surface trough drops across central New York and New England. These features have been responsible for scattered areas of convection that moved from central Pennsylvania and New York into western New England during the overnight. A gradual weakening trend in this convection should occur over the next few hours but a few cells will survive, reaching the Connecticut Valley by daybreak. Elsewhere expect partly cloudy skies with patchy areas of fog in the river valleys and in areas that have received rainfall. Temperatures will start the day in the 60’s for most locales across the southern half of the region with 50’s across the north. Some 40’s will also be found in the higher terrain of the Adirondacks, Green and Whites.


Short-term - Issued 8/14 @5:25am



Isolated convection will continue into the morning across southern New England. Elsewhere will see clouds along with some breaks of sun, outside of the patchy areas of fog. Temperatures will rise into the 60’s and 70’s from north to south by noon. However, the upper trough remains overhead and weak cyclonic flow will persist over the region. Another mid-level disturbance, currently over western Ohio, will move across Pennsylvania this afternoon, providing weak PVA across the region. In addition, the remnants of a surface trough will extend from central Pennsylvania to interior southern New England. A ribbon of higher low-level moisture extends along this trough axis. Combined with diurnal heating, these features should promote afternoon showers and thunderstorms. CAPE appears to be modest, generally under 1,000J/kg for most regions. Winds aloft are light and bulk shear is low, so I’m not expecting much organization to the storms and wind gusts should remain sub-severe. Storms will mainly be pulse-type storms but a multi-cluster or two may form. Mid-levels are still rather cool so stronger cells will be capable of small hail. Other isolated storms are likely to form over the higher terrain of northern New York and New England. Also of note is a powerful oceanic storm passing about 250 miles east of Nantucket during the course of the day. A few showers on the northwest fringe of this storm may clip the Cape and outer islands during the late morning to early afternoon. Some higher surf and rip currents are possible along coastal areas as well today. Highs will range from the 60’s north to the 70’s across much of the rest of the interior and coast. The southern coastal plain of southeast Pennsylvania and southern New Jersey to the New York City metro area should break 80.

The mid-level disturbance will continue to move across southern New York and New England Thursday night, bringing with it more showers and thunderstorms in almost a repeat of the night before. Outside of the precipitation threat, skies will be partly to mostly cloudy. Patchy valley fog will develop overnight once again. Lows will range from the 50’s north to the 60’s south.

A stronger disturbance drops into the lower Great Lakes on Friday leading to more widespread showers and thunderstorms. The lower levels look very similar to today with weak winds below 850mb and dewpoints in the low to mid 60’s. However, in mid and upper levels the disturbance will be much stronger than the one moving through today as evidence by a core of –20°C temperatures @500mb and 30-60m height falls. Better jet dynamics will come into play as well as an upper jet streak develops in response to the upper energy dropping down the backside of the trough. Enough morning sun should adequately destabilize the atmosphere with MlCAPE moving over 1,000J/kg across the southeastern 2/3rd of the region ahead of the mid-level disturbance. Stronger winds aloft and better jet dynamics doesn’t develop until later in the day so the main threat from the initial batch of storms over Pennsylvania and New York should be heavy rain, frequent lightning and small hail. Storms should be of multi-cluster/cellular variety. A few isolated storms may also pop over the higher terrain of New England. Then southern coastal plain will lie in the favorable left-exit region of this 100kt jet streak that develops by evening. Bulk shear will also increase to ~35kts which may organize storms into a broken line with a couple bowing segments. Severe wind gusts may accompany these storms during the evening hours and perhaps some large hail in the stronger updrafts being the flow at mid-levels is only progged to be around 30kts preventing a more widespread hail event. These storms should push off the Jersey Shore within a couple hours of midnight. More numerous storms also move into western New England by dusk and continue east-northeastward into New Hampshire and western Maine into the overnight. Highs tomorrow will range from the upper 60’s and low 70’s north to the upper 70 to mid 80’s south. Temperatures fall back into the 50’s north; 60’s south tomorrow night.


Mid-term - Issued 8/14 @6:30am


The upper low moves across the Northeast on Saturday with most of the shower and thunderstorm activity moving into New England leaving only isolated storms across New York and Pennsylvania. Surface high pressure moves across the southern portion of the region on Sunday as heights builds slightly aloft bringing a fair day for most. Temperatures will also finally climb close to normal levels. Areas along the US/Canadian border will be close to the jet stream and any disturbances contained therein. A few scattered showers or storms may skirt by during the afternoon here. This jet dips further south on Monday sending a backdoor front into northern New England. Afternoon ahowers and storms are probable along this boundary along with cooler temperatures behind the front. Ahead of this boundary across the southern third of the region it should be a warm mid-summer day with temperatures in the mid 80's.


Long-term - coming later



___________________________________________________________

Tropical Update


92L


Tropical disturbance '92L' has improved in organization remarkably during the overnight. Convection has increased around the general area of low pressure and a tropical depression appears to be in its formative stages. Currently the disturbance is about 150 east of the northern Leeward Islands moving slightly north of due west. This general motion should continue over the next 24 hours and will bring squally weather to the islands today and Puerto Rico by tonight. This disturbance could very well be a tropical storm by that time so some light preparations should be made. However, this system shouldn't be a major problem with heavy rain leading to flash flooding most likely the biggest threat.

Beyond the initial 24 hours things are still up in the air due to the system having not developed as of yet. If this system were to develop a turn to the west-northwest should occur upon passing Puerto Rico, perhaps paralleling the northern coast of Hispainola about 100mi offshore. The Bahamas are next in line and may be dealing with a strong storm by that time, assuming it develops.

A trough (back-door cold front) dipping into the Northeast on Monday may provide enough of a weakness to lift this potential system northward but high pressure builds back in by the middle of next week so the East Coast of the United States may come under threat from this system as well. Of course this is all speculation this far in advance, but if this system develops the steering currents over the sub-tropical Atlantic should bring the system towards the west across many lines of longitude where land becomes an obstacle.


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Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar


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Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.



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August Daily Weather Statistics

August 1st - 79°F/57°F....0.00"....60%
August 2nd - 75°F/59°F....0.52"....40%
August 3rd - 75°F/55°F....0.09"....50%
August 4th - 76°F/57°F....0.00"....75%
August 5th - 80°F/55°F....0.00"....60%
August 6th - 80°F/64°F....0.71"....30%
August 7th - 77°F/57°F....0.03"....40%
August 8th - 71°F/57°F....0.07"....30%
August 9th - 76°F/55°F....0.00"....70%
August 10th - 68°F/52°F....0.32"....15%
August 11th - 64°F/57°F....0.11"....10%
August 12th - 72°F/59°F....0.23"....40%
August 13th - 73°F/50°F....0.00"....65%

Updated: 10:30 AM GMT on August 14, 2008

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Cool and stormy once again

By: sullivanweather, 12:20 PM GMT on August 09, 2008

Warnings, advisories and storm reports during the previous 72 hours. Click on map to view individual reports.


storm reports




Northern New England storm reports


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Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings

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Regional Forecast


Synopsis - Issued 8/09 @5:20am


Low pressure will continue to produce unsettled conditions over New England, especially Maine, on Saturday but shortwave ridging in the low/mid levels will bring drier conditions to most locales further west, although temperatures will remain below normal region-wide. A potent vertically stacked low pressure system is expected to arrive Sunday. This very dynamic system will move into the Niagara Frontier with numerous showers and thunderstorms, some severe, developing over Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey and western New England. The low pressure system will slowly move east, fill and weaken during the day on Monday but numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue to accompany it from eastern New York/Pennsylvania into New England. Tuesday looks similar to Saturday with shortwave ridging moving into western sections as New England remains unsettled with their proximity to the now barotropic stacked low pressure over the Gulf of Maine. Longwave trough remains locked in place over the Northeast to close out next week bringing a continuation of below normal temperatures and occasionally unsettled weather.


Near-term - Issued 8/09 @5:20am



Broad surface low pressure over Maine combined with a couple lobes of mid-level energy continues to produce showers across eastern Maine early this morning while weak cyclonic/upslope flow is providing just enough convergence/lift for isolated showers extending back west to central New York, aided by influences from Lake Ontario. Partly to mostly cloudy skies extend over much of the rest of the interior aside from western New York and Pennsylvania and along the coastal plain where skies have cleared. There may also be patchy fog in the river valleys and locales where rain fell last evening.


Short-term - Issued 8/09 @7:00am



An upper trough axis that has plagued the Northeast over the last several days with early Autumn-like temperatures along with showers and thunderstorms will remain entrenched over the region today. However, shortwave ridging in the low/mid-levels of the atmosphere will try to put a cap on afternoon convection today over much of New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania as drier air moves into the area and a subsidence inversion develops in the mid-levels. It will still be possible for a terrain enhanced shower to pop over the ridge tops or Catskills this afternoon during peak heating. There will be some scattered fair weather cumulus clouds that develop elsewhere under the inversion but drier air should lead to less cloud cover than yesterday. Along with good boundary layer mixing and 850mb temperatures of 10-13°C, surface temperatures should climb into the 70's for most locales with an 80-degree reading or two in southeast Pennsylvania and southern New Jersey. Further northeast, closer to the deep layer trough, clouds and showers will increase in coverage. Much of the precipitation will be confined to Maine where deeper moisture/better lift resides. Across the remainder of New England (away from the immediate southern New England coast) and extreme northern New York weak cyclonic flow, cool mid-levels and steepening lapse rates from diurnal heating will bring about scattered afternoon showers and thundershowers. mlCAPE values will generally be a few hundred Joules/kg with meager kinematics so severe weather is unlikely. Freezing levels are rather low so small hail may accompany a few of the stronger cells. With more cloud cover, scattered precipitation and 850mb temperatures of 9-10°C surface temperatures will only climb into the 60’s for most locales with lower 70’s across southern New England.

Showers over New England die from the combination of the low pressure moving off into the Canadian Maritimes and loss of heating. Plenty of low clouds linger with moist, weak cyclonic flow, especially in upslope regions. The next system of concern, a strong vertically stacked low pressure, will be diving down into the Great Lakes region. As mentioned in the synopsis, there’s lots of dynamics for this storm to work with. The Northeast will lie in the left exit region of a 90-100kt jet streak over the Ohio Valley in a highly diffluent flow aloft along with strong PVA in mid-levels. Additional forcing along a surface cold front encroaching on the region ahead of the upper level system will spark of showers and thunderstorms that will move into the Niagara Frontier and western Pennsylvania late in the evening and push into the western Finger Lakes and Appalachians during the overnight. Between these two systems over eastern New York and western New England skies will be mostly clear, although some high clouds may spill into this region later in the overnight. It could be a good night to view some early Perseids, which are approaching rates of a dozen or so an hour now. Temperatures will drop into the 50’s across the interior with 60’s along the coastal plain.

High impact weather is likely on Sunday as the strong vertically stacked low pressure system moves into the region. Strong forcing ahead of this system from the surface front and PVA in the mid-levels, favorable jet dynamics in the left exit region of a 90kt jet streak in a highly diffluent flow will provide all the support necessary for showers and thunderstorms to continue moving through the region. Breaks of sun from eastern New York and Pennsylvania into western New England will warm the surface enough for thermodynamics to become a factor but how much so remains in question. Current model runs prog mlCAPE values to rise to 1,000-1,500J/kg and mid level lapse rates to hover between 6-7°C /km. Convection will intensify as it moves east into this more buoyant atmosphere. Kinematics will be a factor as well with a 30-40kt mid-level jet nosing into the region along with ~40kts of deep-layer shear. Storms along the frontal boundary and a developing lee-side trough will have the potential to organize into bowing line segments capable of severe wind gusts and large hail but multi-cluster storms should be the predominate form convection will take. Freezing levels will generally be under 10,000’ so even weaker convection will have the ability to produce small hail but the stronger cells will certainly have to be watched for severe hail, especially given the stronger mid-level flow and potential for rotating updrafts. These storms will carry with them frequent lightning given the low freezing levels/high storm tops. Precipitable water values will range from 100-130% of normal (nothing spectacular), but training and back-building of storms will be possible so flash flooding will be a concern as well, especially given the wet antedecent conditions. Behind the front isolated showers will continue to pop up and collapse while over northern New England the shortwave ridging currently over western sections gives Maine a fairly pleasant day. Temperatures will range from the low 70’s along the coastal plain to the 60’s across much of the interior with the cool airmass overhead, clouds and precipitation.


Mid-term - Issued 8/09 @7:45am


Vertically stacked low pressure will slowly traverse the region during the mid-term, slowly filling and weakening with time. This system starts the period over New York State with the attending cold front along the New York/New England border with plenty of ongoing shower and thunderstorm activity out ahead of it. These showers and storms will continue into the overnight, although more widely scattered, as enough dynamics/steep enough lapse rates will still exist with this system to maintain convection into diurnal min. With diurnal heating on Monday precipitation will become more widespread once again as the system pulls into New England. Cool mid-levels/lowered freezing levels will allow for hailers once again in stronger cells that develop. The storm moves offshore Tuesday as western sections dry out and precipitation confined to New England.


Long-term - Issued 8/09 @8:15am


Deep upper trough remains over the eastern half of the United States Wednesday through Friday. A southern stream system will have to be watched as it phases with the northern stream trough. But this system should remain south of the region and phasing will likely occur too far offshore to directly effect the Northeast, becoming an oceanic storm that moves into the Canadian Maritimes. The most likely scenario will be a continuation of northern stream shortwaves, impossible to time at this juncture, diving into the region touching off diurnally enhanced convection. The upper trough looks to finally loosen its grip over the region next weekend as upper heights build and surface high pressure moves into the region. Temperatures will begin the period below normal and slowly rise to near normal by next weekend as drier weather returns.



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Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar


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Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.



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August Daily Weather Statistics

August 1st - 79°F/57°F....0.00"....60%
August 2nd - 75°F/59°F....0.52"....40%
August 3rd - 75°F/55°F....0.09"....50%
August 4th - 76°F/57°F....0.00"....75%
August 5th - 80°F/55°F....0.00"....60%
August 6th - 80°F/64°F....0.71"....30%
August 7th - 77°F/57°F....0.03"....40%
August 8th - 71°F/57°F....0.07"....30%
August 9th - 76°F/55°F....0.00"....70%
August 10th - 68°F/52°F....0.32"....15%

Updated: 11:01 AM GMT on August 11, 2008

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Early taste of Autumn this weekend

By: sullivanweather, 3:00 PM GMT on August 05, 2008

Storm reports last 72 hours. Click on map to view individual reports.


storm reports




Northern New England storm reports


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Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings

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Regional Forecast


Synopsis - Issued 8/05 @11:00am


A trough approaching from the west will bring an increase in clouds and precipitation to New York and Pennsylvania today while most of New England finally dries out. This trough will move through the Northeast on Wednesday and slow its eastward progress as additional energy dips down the trough's backside. Highly meridional flow develops the second half of this week into the weekend with a trough in the East and a ridge over the Four Corners States. This pattern will feature a cool and unsettled pattern heading into this weekend as it will feel rather autumn-like across the region. This trough finally begins to lift by next Monday with a return to seasonable early to mid August weather.


Short-term - Issued 8/05 @11:00am


The morning has begun mostly cloudy over the northern half of New England with mainly clear skies to the southwest over western New England and central/eastern New York. Skies cloud over once again towards western Pennsylvania as leftovers from last night's severe convection over the Ohio Valley/Midwest, which are now just scattered showers and thundershowers, roll into the region this morning. These showers will continue to push towards the southeast along a warm front draped over Pennsylvania. By this afternoon, once the clouds break and a little insolation occurs, convection will fire up along this warm front once again. The airmass on the south side of the warm front is very sticky. Yesterday many locations in the Mid-Mississippi Valley region had heat indices over 110°F and sbCAPE values of 6,000J/kg+! While this type of heat/instability won’t make it this far northeast, a portion of it will. mlCAPE values rise to 1,500-2,000J/kg south of the warm front, ~1,000J/kg along and just to the north. As spokes of mid-level energy ride down from the Great Lakes along the warm front convection will be triggered. Bulk shear will range from 30-40kts over this region as well in a unidirectional west-northwesterly flow. This could lead to an organized line segment of storms or two, but most will be scattered multi-clusters and isolated supercells given the 150-200% of normal precipitable water values and a 30kt low-level flow punching into the frontal region with a sharp drop off in the low-level flow on the north side of the front. With increased 0-1km helicity from the warm front being in the area I wouldn’t be surprised to see an isolated tornado drop down somewhere either. Further northeast the weather will be more benign as much of eastern New York and western New England see mostly sunny skies and seasonable temperatures. A few isolated terrain enhanced showers may still pop up over Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine but most of the day will be spent under fair weather cumulus clouds. High here are likely to remain in the 70’s with a few 60’s in the higher terrain.

The warm front continues to push northeast this evening but will begin to occlude as a cold front rapidly descends into the region. Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage over eastern/central New York and western New England with the increased low level forcing associated with the frontal boundaries. mlCAPE will be modest, generally 250-750J/kg and the core of strongest winds will be pushing off the Delmarva Coast, so severe weather will be unlikely. Drier air moving in behind the front will end precipitation chances over western New York and the southwestern 2/3’s of Pennsylvania. The eastern half of New England will also escape the precipitation during the overnight. Lows will range from the 50’s over northern New England to the 60’s across the rest of the interior. Along the coastal plain temperatures should remain in the upper 60 to low 70’s.

As the deep layer trough over the Northeast tilts negative tomorrow it will slow its eastward progression. Showers and thundershowers will continue over New England while most locales to the west dry out. Rainfall amounts over New England will total 1-2” and may lead to sharp rises of area rivers given all the recent rainfall. There’s a slight chance some afternoon thunderstorms will fire up from the southern Adirondacks to the Catskills, Hudson Valley, Taconics, Berkshires, and Litchfield Hills of Connecticut. Leftover low-level moisture, diurnal heating and favorable placement in left exit region of a 120kt jet streak may induce some isolated afternoon convection. Temperatures will remain near to slightly above seasonable levels behind the front as 850mb temps range from 13-17°C with decent mixing and near full sun. Under the clouds and precipitation over New England temperatures will likely remain in the 60’s north, 70’s south.


Mid-term - Issued 8/05 @11:00am


Core of the cold pool/upper trough move into the northern Great Lakes Friday, into Southern Ontario Saturday and over the Northeast by Sunday. Impossible to time disturbances rounding the base of this trough carved out over eastern North America will set off showers and thunderstorm, which will be most prevalent during the afternoon hours due to diurnal influences. Severe threat looks minimal at this point in time, although by the weekend as the cold pool aloft becomes better situated over the region, the threat for small hail will increase. Temperatures will begin the period near normal but will drop to below normal levels for early August by the weekend.


Long-term - Issued 8/05 @11:00am


The long term begins with the deep trough still carved out over the East Coast. Low pressure will form over the western Atlantic and move into the Canadian Maritimes spreading moisture back into the upper trough axis over northern New York and New England, keeping the threat for precipitation going into early next week there. Further south and west, over the remainder of New York, Pennsylvania and New Jersey is should be rather pleasant. The precipitation should come to an end, leaving behind mainly fair skies (afternoon cumulus development) and close to seasonable temperatures for daily highs, although the nighttime temperatures should fall below normal. Good sleeping weather!



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Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar


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Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.



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August Daily Weather Statistics

August 1st - 79°F/57°F....0.00"....60%
August 2nd - 75°F/59°F....0.52"....40%
August 3rd - 75°F/55°F....0.09"....50%
August 4th - 76°F/57°F....0.00"....75%

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Severe storms possible today

By: sullivanweather, 2:06 PM GMT on August 02, 2008


Storm reports last 72 hours. Click on map to view individual reports.


storm reports




Northern New England storm reports


___________________________________________________________



Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings

------


Regional Forecast


Synopsis - Issued 8/02 @9:50am



A potent upper level trough and attending cold front will move through the Northeast on Saturday, bringing a line of showers and thunderstorms through the region. Some of these storms may be severe, capable of damaging winds and large hail. The upper trough axis persists over New England into the beginning of next week keeping precipitation around this region while to the west fair skies and seasonable temperatures dominate. The trough finally lifts out of the Northeast by Tuesday with much warmer and more humid air moving into the region. Southwesterly flow continues to pump in the heat and moisture ahead of the next trough/cold frontal passage Wednesday. Once again, severe thunderstorms will be possible with the passage of the front Wednesday afternoon and evening. One dry day on Thursday then an anomalously deep 500mb trough brings unsettled weather once again Friday into next weekend.


Short-term - Issued 8/02 @9:50am


Clouds and precipitation associated with the upper trough/cold front couplet are progressing through the region this morning, most concentrated over central New York and north-central/northeastern Pennsylvania. Some of these storms have already prompted the issuance of severe thunderstorm warnings. However, with the thick cloud cover spreading out ahead of this system, surface based instability will be dampened. Only the eastern half of southern New England have managed to escape the clouds this morning, allowing for a more unstable atmosphere to develop there. Despite the poor thermodynamics elsewhere, the trough moving into the region has quite impressive jet dynamics and moisture pooling out ahead of the front may allow for a more buoyant atmosphere. Moreover, a good shot of PVA combined with impressive height falls associated with the approach of the strong upper trough which will be tilting negative, inducing surface low development, increasing low level convergence and upper level difluence from a cyclonically curved upper jet streak will provide all the lift necessary for elevated convection. Bulk shear is around 25-40kts so some organization of convection is possible, likely into bowing line segments capable of damaging winds. Fast flow of ~50kts at mid-levels from eastern Pennsylvania to southern New England will outline the area at highest threat for these damaging winds. With a warm front draped across the region the region, an increase in helicity to over 200m2/s2 is expected which will raise concern for supercell development capable of rotation. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. The best chance for this to occur will be over southern New England where surface based instability will be highest. Hail may be a concern as well as freezing levels fall to ~10,000’ and 500mb temperatures fall to -10°C to -14°C from south to north. Temperatures are likely to remain in the 60’s and 70’s today except for the coastal plain where temperatures should move into the 80’s.


Mid-term - Issued 8/02 @9:50am


The cold front will be offshore by Sunday morning as the surface low pressure moves into New England. Good lift and deep moisture source ahead of this low will bring showers and embedded thundershowers to the northern half of New England. The rainfall over New England may be locally heavy with one to two inches of rain possible from this event (Sat PM-Mon PM). Scattered diurnally driven showers and thundershowers will hang back in the upper trough axis over northern New York. With rather chilly air in the upper levels the possibility exists for hail in some of the stronger cells that develop. The cold pool aloft will also lead to afternoon cumulus development over much of the remainder of interior New York and Pennsylvania with some isolated showers developing during peak heating over central New York and north-central Pennsylvania. Diurnal showers over New York and Pennsylvania quickly die with loss of heating during the evening hours. The surface low over New England will also be moving offshore with the best lift associated with this system moving into the Canadian Maritimes. Some scattered showers will remain over New England but for the most part precipitation will be decreasing in coverage and skies will gradually clear. The upper trough axis lingers over New England on Monday. Diurnal heating will lead to a redevelopment of showers and thundershowers over much of northern New England. Elsewhere, fair skies and seasonable temperatures will prevail. Building heights extend east on Tuesday as the upper trough over New England lifts. Temperatures climb above seasonable levels across the southwestern half of the region with near normal temperatures over New England.


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Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar


___________________________________________________________

Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.



___________________________________________________________



July Daily Weather Statistics


July 1st - 75°F/55°F.....Trace....60%
July 2nd - 80°F/54°F.....0.00"....90%
July 3rd - 79°F/54°F.....0.31"....20%
July 4th - 71°F/63°F.....Trace.....5%
July 5th - 80°F/59°F.....0.00"....40%
July 6th - 81°F/63°F.....0.00"....50%
July 7th - 82°F/66°F.....0.00"....50%
July 8th - 84°F/67°F.....0.00"....60%
July 9th - 79°F/64°F.....0.21"....50%
July 10th - 75°F/57°F....0.00"....80%
July 11th - 79°F/52°F....0.00"....70%
July 12th - 86°F/64°F....0.00"....80%
July 13th - 80°F/65°F....0.72"....20%
July 14th - 77°F/63°F....0.03"....80%
July 15th - 79°F/55°F....0.00"....80%
July 16th - 85°F/54°F....0.00"....95%
July 17th - 84°F/60°F....1.18"....60%
July 18th - 88°F/62°F....0.00"....75%
July 19th - 89°F/64°F....0.00"....60%
July 20th - 90°F/65°F....0.52"....60%
July 21st - 82°F/64°F....0.03"....40%
July 22nd - 81°F/59°F....1.12"....40%
July 23rd - 72°F/64°F....3.48"....0%
July 24th - 75°F/57°F....1.15"....30%
July 25th - 79°F/52°F....0.00"....90%
July 26th - 80°F/55°F....0.00"....60%
July 27th - 77°F/63°F....0.05"....20%
July 28th - 80°F/53°F....0.01"....80%
July 29th - 81°F/57°F....0.00"....80%
July 30th - 82°F/55°F....0.00"....80%
July 31st - 82°F/64°F....0.04"....50%


August Daily Weather Statistics

August 1st - 79°F/57°F....0.00"....60%

Updated: 11:26 PM GMT on August 02, 2008

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About sullivanweather

Thomas is an avid weather enthusiast, landscaper and organic gardener. This blog is dedicated to Northeast and tropical weather forecasting. Enjoy!

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