Northeast Weather Blog

Heat Wave on the way!

By: sullivanweather, 3:31 PM GMT on July 29, 2008



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Eastern US current watches/warnings

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Regional Forecast


Synopsis - Issued 7/29 @11:30am


A fine day for much of the Northeast on Tuesday with the exception being the northern 2/3rds of Maine where showers and thunderstorms will dot the landscape. A shortwave approaches the region on Wednesday and lingers into Thursday bringing more widespread precipitation. Heights build on Friday as the western ridge flexes its muscles and builds across the country. By the weekend into early next week some serious heat will build east which should bring this summers' hottest spell of weather. MCS activity will effect some portion of the region being on the northeast quadrant of the 'ring of fire'. A fairly strong cold front is forecast to break the heat by the middle of next week. I’d imagine there’ll be quite a severe weather outbreak to look forward to with this frontal passage.


Short-term - Issued 7/29 @11:30am


Much of the Northeast will see partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies today with seasonable temperatures. However, the State of Maine, along with extreme northern Vermont and New Hampshire, stands the chance for seeing afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The cold pool aloft with still be over this region, being in the upper trough axis. In addition the region will also be in the left exit region of a modest 80kt upper jet. Cyclonic flow/orographics should provide the necessary trigger for convection once convective temperatures are reached. mlCAPE will only be ~500J/kg with bulk shear generally under 30kts. 850-700mb winds are also progged to remain under 25kts., hence severe wind gusts shouldn’t be an issue with little to no organization to speak of; mainly pulse storms. There will be a threat for small hail, though. Freezing levels are only around 10,000’ and 500mb temperatures will range from -13 to -15°C. A stray stronger cell may produce penny to nickel-sized hail. Temperatures here should remain in the mid 70’s or lower. Convection dies quickly after loss of insolation setting the region up for a mostly clear night with light winds. Pockets of radiation fog will form in the river valleys and low lying areas. Temperatures will range from the mid to upper 60’s along the coastal plain to the mid 50’s to mid 60’s across the interior. A few mountain valleys across the Northeast Kingdom may see temperatures dip into the 40’s tonight.

A shortwave trough moves into the Northeast tomorrow afternoon with several pockets of vorticity maxima along the wavelength of the trough. Plenty of insolation should occur ahead of this feature to destabilize the atmosphere (mlCAPE values approach 1,500J/kg) as a 25-35kt low/mid level flow pumps an increasingly hot and humid airmass into the Northeast. 850mb temperatures rise to 14-20°C from north to south which will translate to high temperatures being several degrees above normal given nearly full sun and decent boundary layer mixing. But that warmth in the low/mid layers should provide a decent cap for much of the day. High’s will range from the low 80’s over northern New England to the low to mid 90’s across the southern coastal plain. Interior valleys across the southern half of the region should also make a run at 90 degrees. As the trough approaches from the west during the afternoon the cap should erode allowing convection to pop. Mid-level ascent from height falls/PVA combined with the increased low-level forcing due to a 30kt low-level jet moving into the southern half of the region should provide the necessary ingredients for thunderstorm development. Bulk shear is progged by models to range from 25-40kts so some organization of storms into line segments may occur but most should remain in multi-clusters. The 30-35kt low/mid level flow should also make for the potential for severe wind gusts. Again, most of this activity should be limited to the western half of the region late in the afternoon with eastern regions remaining dry. As the trough moves into the region Wednesday night showers and thunderstorms will spread east. Increasing mid-level lapse rates and >30kts of bulk shear should be able to maintain convection into the overnight. Overnight lows should range from the 60’s over the interior to the 70’s across the coastal plain.


Mid-term - Issued 7/29 @11:30am


Shortwave trough remains over the Northeast on Thursday bringing more scattered showers and thunderstorms. Heights begin to build on Friday, although northern New York and much of New England will still be under the influence of the upper trough axis with scattered showers and thunderstorms remaining. Temperatures will be near seasonable levels, slightly below across New England, both days. Warm advection really gets going by Saturday as a large chunk of the western ridge builds east. A few scattered showers and thunderstorms may linger over northern New England but dry weather should envelop much of the region. Temperatures will also warm several degrees from Thursday/Friday’s readings.


Long-term - Issued 7/29 @11:30am


The heat is on in the long term. If the GFS is correct the Sunday-Tuesday period may feature some very hot days as 850mb temperatures rise to 21-23°C with 580dm+ 1000-500mb thicknesses!! This raises the possibility for a few 100 degree days across the coastal plain, including the metro areas of Philadelphia, New York, Hartford and Boston. Even interior valleys will approach 100 degrees. Most everywhere else should also climb into the 90’s at least one day of the three with the only areas not reaching 90 degrees being the higher terrain and extreme northern Maine. In addition to the oppressive heat, humidity will be on the rise with a strong northwesterly jet traversing the region as the upper ridge builds east. Any shortwaves that happen to drop into the Northeast in this northwesterly flow around the top of the ridge may send a couple strong MCS systems through the region. Potential exists for 50-60kt 500mb jet to coincide with the passage of these features so severe weather will definitely be a concern. As mentioned in the synopsis, a strong cold front is progged by long range models to break the heat wave during the middle of next week. A fairly deep progressive longwave trough is progged to move across the North American continent as a chunk of the polar vortex drops into central Canada. Given the strength of the upper ridge progged to be over the US an anaomalously fast upper jet should develop across the US/Canadian border. Delta T’s between the airmass ahead of and behind the front could be around 12-15°C. Given the strong upper flow and drastic change of airmass, a widespread severe weather event can be expected.

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Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar


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Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.



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July Daily Weather Statistics


July 1st - 75°F/55°F.....Trace....60%
July 2nd - 80°F/54°F.....0.00"....90%
July 3rd - 79°F/54°F.....0.31"....20%
July 4th - 71°F/63°F.....Trace.....5%
July 5th - 80°F/59°F.....0.00"....40%
July 6th - 81°F/63°F.....0.00"....50%
July 7th - 82°F/66°F.....0.00"....50%
July 8th - 84°F/67°F.....0.00"....60%
July 9th - 79°F/64°F.....0.21"....50%
July 10th - 75°F/57°F....0.00"....80%
July 11th - 79°F/52°F....0.00"....70%
July 12th - 86°F/64°F....0.00"....80%
July 13th - 80°F/65°F....0.72"....20%
July 14th - 77°F/63°F....0.03"....80%
July 15th - 79°F/55°F....0.00"....80%
July 16th - 85°F/54°F....0.00"....95%
July 17th - 84°F/60°F....1.18"....60%
July 18th - 88°F/62°F....0.00"....75%
July 19th - 89°F/64°F....0.00"....60%
July 20th - 90°F/65°F....0.52"....60%
July 21st - 82°F/64°F....0.03"....40%
July 22nd - 81°F/59°F....1.12"....40%
July 23rd - 72°F/64°F....3.48"....0%
July 24th - 75°F/57°F....1.15"....30%
July 25th - 79°F/52°F....0.00"....90%

Permalink

Storms this weekend.

By: sullivanweather, 1:44 PM GMT on July 26, 2008


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Eastern US current watches/warnings

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Regional Forecast




A cold front will slowly sag through the Northeast over the weekend bringing with it the chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms. Upper trough axis/cold pool lingers on Monday bringing showers across the higher terrain up north but mostly fair conditions everywhere else. Building heights and warm air advection brings a nice day and a warming trend to the Northeast by Tuesday but the zonal flow across the northern tier of the country will quickly usher in the next system by Wednesday. Longwave trough remains over the eastern Great Lakes/Northeast region of the country into next weekend with individual shortwaves bringing an increase in chances for precipitation as they swing through the region.


Mainly clear skies and light winds led to ideal summertime radiational cooling last night leading to a rather cool start to the morning with pockets of locally dense fog across the interior valleys. A rather thick marine layer can also be found this morning across downeast Maine. Strong July sun should quickly burn off the valley fog, but the marine layer may put up a good fight into early afternoon along the immediate coast of Maine. Interior locations will see a gradual erosion of this marine layer during the late morning as the atmosphere gradually mixes this layer out. Towards the west, mid and high level clouds are already on the increase as a cold frontal boundary pushes into the area that will serve as a focus for afternoon convection. Currently, moisture is somewhat limited across the region with precipitable water values ranging from 0.75" across northern New England to 1.25" across western New York and Pennsylvania. However, moisture will increase during the day and this is shown nicely in the 850mb moisture transport vectors. Moisture pooling ahead of the front will increase precipitable water values to near 1.5". Enough insolation should occur in the broken sky ahead of the front to further destabilize the atmosphere. mlCAPE values rise from around 800J/kg to 1,200J/kg as this axis of moisture ahead of the front pulls through. With little cap to speak of convection should fire by noon. Bulk shear is running around 25-30kts in a unidirectional flow so a little organization may occur, mainly line-segments across north-central New York into the southern Adirondacks region which may produce severe wind gusts. Freezing levels are around 11,000' and 500mb temperatures are forecast to run close to -12°C so small hail may be an issue as well. South of the NY/PA border extended east, shear is generally under 25kts. Here scattered small multi-cluster storms and pulse storms moving east-southeast around 20-25kts should occur. Small hail may be an issue here also, but freezing levels are around 2,000' higher and the upper levels are about 2°C warmer so any hail should remain confined to the strongest cells. A severe wind gust or two may be reported, but with a lack of dry air and a rather weak wind field aloft I don't see winds being much of a threat with these storms to the south. After forming, storms will push towards the east-southeast across New York and Pennsylvania, moving into western New England by early evening. Intensity of convection wanes during the evening but showers and thundershowers will persist into the overnight from eastern Pennsylvania to southern New England. Mostly cloudy to overcast skies will be in the vicinity of the front with partly cloudy skies ahead of the front across downeast Maine and clearing skies behind the front across western New York and Pennsylvania. High's will range from the 70's across the northern interior and the Niagara Frontier to the 80's just about everywhere else. Lows tonight fall into the 50's across the far north and across the higher elevations of western New York and Pennsylvania. Temperatures fall back into the 60's across the remainder of the interior with 70's along the southern coastal plain.

The front continues to move southeast on Sunday with convection firing once again ahead of it's flanks. The main threat area will be from southeastern Pennsylvania to southern New England, including New Jersey and southeast New York. The big question will be how much cloud debris remains after today convection over the area. If skies clear adequately mlCAPE may approach 2,000J/kg and severe weather may be a concern. None-the-less, enough insolation will occur to destabilize the atmosphere for convection. There’ll be more moisture availability as well with model progged precipitable water values over 1.75” across southeastern Pennsylvanian and the southern half of New Jersey. Outside of the severe threat area, central and northern New England will see scattered showers and thundershowers as well. However, instability will be limited and the convection should remain low-topped limiting the hail/wind threats. Behind the frontal boundary it will be partly cloudy, for the most part, with fairly seasonable temperatures. Ahead of the front it will be quite steamy with highs in the mid to upper 80’s.



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Tropical Update


Coming later...

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Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar


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Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.



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July Daily Weather Statistics


July 1st - 75°F/55°F.....Trace....60%
July 2nd - 80°F/54°F.....0.00"....90%
July 3rd - 79°F/54°F.....0.31"....20%
July 4th - 71°F/63°F.....Trace.....5%
July 5th - 80°F/59°F.....0.00"....40%
July 6th - 81°F/63°F.....0.00"....50%
July 7th - 82°F/66°F.....0.00"....50%
July 8th - 84°F/67°F.....0.00"....60%
July 9th - 79°F/64°F.....0.21"....50%
July 10th - 75°F/57°F....0.00"....80%
July 11th - 79°F/52°F....0.00"....70%
July 12th - 86°F/64°F....0.00"....80%
July 13th - 80°F/65°F....0.72"....20%
July 14th - 77°F/63°F....0.03"....80%
July 15th - 79°F/55°F....0.00"....80%
July 16th - 85°F/54°F....0.00"....95%
July 17th - 84°F/60°F....1.18"....60%
July 18th - 88°F/62°F....0.00"....75%
July 19th - 89°F/64°F....0.00"....60%
July 20th - 90°F/65°F....0.52"....60%
July 21st - 82°F/64°F....0.03"....40%
July 22nd - 81°F/59°F....1.12"....40%
July 23rd - 72°F/64°F....3.48"....0%
July 24th - 75°F/57°F....1.15"....30%
July 25th - 79°F/52°F....0.00"....90%

Permalink

Flooding expected/Hurricane Dolly update

By: sullivanweather, 10:06 AM GMT on July 23, 2008

Tropical Update



Dolly



Latest satellite image of Tropical Storm Dolly.


Tuesday afternoon update

Dolly now a hurricane.

At the 5pm EDT (Tuesday) National hurricane Center advisory the center of Hurricane Dolly was located at 24.6°N 95.3°W, or about 165 miles east-southeast of Brownsville, Texas. Maximum sustained winds are around 75mph and the minimum estimated central pressure is 986mb. Previous reasoning from this morning applies to the current forecast.


Tuesday morning update

At the 5am EDT (Tuesday) National hurricane Center advisory the center of Tropical Storm Dolly was located at 23.3°N 93.8°W, or about 295 miles southeast of Brownsville, Texas. Maximum sustained winds are around 60mph and the minimum estimated central pressure is 997mb. Dolly is moving to the west at 15mph. Dolly has become much better organized during the overnight, developing a central dense overcast within a structurally improving inner-core. Banding has drastically improved over the northern and western semi-circles and it now appears that Dolly is on the verge of becoming a hurricane. Outflow is excellent in the northern and western quadrants with a well-defined outflow channel noted venting clockwise around the upper ridge over the central Gulf of Mexico down into the Caribbean. Outflow is restricted in the western quadrant and non-existent in the southern quadrant. The upper low the has been hindering Dolly's development thus far is weakening over Old Mexico, allowing for this sudden burst of intensification.

Dolly should continue to intensify over the next 18-24 hours while over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. In fact, Dolly may become a strong category 2 storm at peak intensity. As Dolly approaches the coast oceanic heat content decreases and the cyclone will begin to ingest some dry continental air, likely putting Dolly in a steady state or slight weakening trend in the hours before she comes ashore. Upon moving inland rapid weakening should occur and Dolly should be nothing more than a heavy rain producing tropical depression by late Thursday afternoon.

Dolly should continue on a just north of due west track over the next 6-12 hours. Thereafter a slightly more northerly component to Dolly track should ensue as the storm grows stonger and begins to feel a weakness in the ridge to her north. Dolly should also slow her forward speed to around 10mph or slightly less during the evening into the overnight tonight. It is still expected that Dolly will make landfall over the Rio Grande Valley region along the international border sometime during the day on Wednesday. As Dolly loses her vertical structure after landfall the storm will bend back towards the west in the low-level flow into Old Mexico.

Previous Discussion



At the 8am EDT (Monday) National hurricane Center intermediate advisory the ill-defined center of Tropical Storm Dolly was located at 21.6°N 88.7°W along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Maximum sustained winds are around 50mph and the minimum estimated central pressure is 1005mb. Dolly is moving to the west-northwest at 16mph. Tropical Storm Dolly continues to look very disorganized on satellite imagery with the mid-level center about 40miles west-northwest of the low-level center along the northern coast of the Yucatan. Outflow remains good to the north and east of the cyclone but fair to poor in the southern and western quadrants. The atmosphere surrounding Dolly is quite moist as satellite derived precipitable water soundings are upwards of 2.5". The upper level low which has been moving in tandem with Dolly has also begun to outrun the cyclone. and is now moving towards the west-southwest into the southwestern Bay of Campeche. Given the favorable outflow pattern and highly moist environmental conditions and deep warm waters along her projected path, the only factor holding the storm from intensifying is a poorly-defined inner structure of the storm.

Dolly should gradually get her act together over the next 24 hours as expectations are that she'll finally be able to develop a well-defined center of circulation. Dolly should also slow her forward speed giving the system more time to develop before reaching the Rio Grande River Valley region. In all likelihood Dolly will become a hurricane by Tuesday evening or early Wednesday morning and make landfall at hurricane strength Wednesday evening. Dolly should continue on her west-northwest track right up until landfall then bend to the west as it moves under the upper level ridge over the southern Plains. Despite drought conditions which have persisted since last autumn over the Rio Grande Valley, heavy rains from Dolly combined with recent heavy rains from several tropical waves that have come ashore in this region could lead to flash/river flooding. Moisture from Dolly will eventually become incorporated into the newly dubbed ‘North American Monsoon’ bringing additional rain to the Southwest. This moisture should eventually find the westerlies and could bring MCS activity to the northerntier of the country by next weekend.


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Storm reports last 72 hours. Click on map to view individual reports.


storm reports




Northern New England storm reports


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Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings

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Regional Forecast




High impact rain event for the Northeast is underway. The first in a series of low pressure waves is currently moving through Pennsylvania and New Jersey. This wave is accompanied by a line of strong to severe thunderstorms preceding a large area of heavy rainfall. A classic setup for heavy rain over the Northeast has shaped up as a strong sub-tropical ridge (Bermuda high) builds and moves to a position a few hundred miles south of Newfoundland while a digging upper level trough over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region goes into negative tilt as it slowly pushes east. Shortwaves rounding the base of this trough will spawn several areas of low pressure that will track northward along a nearly stationary surface frontal boundary that will extend from southeastern Pennsylvania to the Lake Champlian region. Deep tropical moisture connection will be present which will enable each of these waves the potential to drop 1-3"of rainfall. Where tracks of heavy rainfall overlap, rainfall total have to potential to drop close to a half foot of rain with locally higher amounts. This amount of rain falling in a 36-48 hour period will lead to flooding concerns of both flash flooding and river flooding.


Instead of trying to concentrate on each wave I'll just give a general overview of the synoptic set-up and let the chips fall where they may. Trying to pinpoint exact times and locations in such events where a large area stands to see the potential for flooding rains is nonsensical and, quite frankly, a waste of time.

Focus will be on the severe threat first since that will be the biggest initial threat. mlCAPE values over eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey and eastern New York are in the 500-1,200J/kg range, so the atmosphere is still plenty unstable even at what should normally be diurnal min. Vertical shear ranges from 30-40kts across this region as well, leading to storm organization and maintenance along a line of storms moving north through Pennsylvania and backbuilding cells just south of Lake Ontario in New York. Triggers for these cells are the remnants of an old frontal boundary across New York and a rapidly northeastward advancing 500mb shortwave pulling through Pennsylvania. Severe threat comes from a 40-50kt 500mb flow out of the southwest that any of the stronger cells should easily be able to transfer to the surface. Combined with anomalously cold temperatures at 500mb (-11 to -13°C) not only will severe wind gusts be a threat, but also nickel-sized hail. Some turning of the mid-level flow due in part to differential vorticity advection will be able to support stronger updrafts adding to the hail threat.

This afternoon, as diurnal effects take place, additional storms will increase in coverage and intensity once again. A train of mid-level impulses will make their way into the Northeast serving as a triggering mechanism for convection. There's a question as to how much insolation will take place to destabilize the atmosphere but at the time thinking is that enough sun should break through to sufficiently create modest instability. Models prog mlCAPE values to approach 1,500-2,000J/kg by afternoon along with 6-7°C/km mid-level lapse rates and 30m height falls @500mb. Deep southerly unidirectional flow along with 30-40kts of bulk shear will promote the development of bowing line segments of storms. However, as the afternoon progresses and the low-level jet increases to ~45kts due to the tightening pressure gradient, development of supercell storms are possible capable of damaging winds and hail, along with the threat of isolated tornados.


As for the heavy rain threat, favorable jet dynamics will play a role in enhancing rain amounts as the region from eastern Pennsylvania to western New England will find itself under the right rear entrance region (and remain there) of a 90-100kt jet maxima over western New York and southern Ontario. In addition, the tightening pressure gradient between the strong ridge over the western Atlantic and the upper trough over the Ohio Valley will increase the southerly low-level jet, helping to transport a deep tropical airmass from the Gulf of Mexico and the tropical western Atlantic over the region. Precipitable water values approach and exceed 2" focusing along the surface frontal boundary and zone of highest 850mb convergence axis. Given the convective nature of the precipitation, rainfall rates will range from 1-2"/hr in the heavier cells, leading to flash flooding problems of creeks, streams and urban areas. Large scale lift/ascent for heavy rainfall will be provided by the many impulses riding north into this tropical airmass, along with the favorable jet dynamics and theta-e ridge forecast to line up with the Hudson River Valley. Orographics will also come into play along the south facing slopes of the Green and Whites, Catskills, Berkshires, Taconics, Adirondacks, Poconos and Litchfield Hills of Connecticut. Rain will come in waves with and out ahead of each impulse moving north in the deep southerly flow. The frontal boundary will slowly push east by Thursday afternoon bringing the heavy rain threat into New England, but by then the frontal boundary, albeit slow. will finally show signs of progression as the ridge over the western Atlantic begins to give way to the slowly advancing trough. Total rainfall from this series of storms will approach 3-6" with locally higher amounts in the hardest hit areas, especially in the areas that will benefit, or in this case suffer, from orographic lift. Outside of this region rainfall amounts of 1-2 are possible with extreme western sections seeing generally under half in inch. Temperatures will be kept near normal given the cloud cover and rainfall with slightly below normal lows and slightly above normal highs. Of note, the NAM model has consistently shown southern New York to receive upwards of 10" of rain with this event. While highly unlikely, this possibility will be closely monitored.



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Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar


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Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.



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July Daily Weather Statistics


July 1st - 75°F/55°F.....Trace....60%
July 2nd - 80°F/54°F.....0.00"....90%
July 3rd - 79°F/54°F.....0.31"....20%
July 4th - 71°F/63°F.....Trace.....5%
July 5th - 80°F/59°F.....0.00"....40%
July 6th - 81°F/63°F.....0.00"....50%
July 7th - 82°F/66°F.....0.00"....50%
July 8th - 84°F/67°F.....0.00"....60%
July 9th - 79°F/64°F.....0.21"....50%
July 10th - 75°F/57°F....0.00"....80%
July 11th - 79°F/52°F....0.00"....70%
July 12th - 86°F/64°F....0.00"....80%
July 13th - 80°F/65°F....0.72"....20%
July 14th - 77°F/63°F....0.03"....80%
July 15th - 79°F/55°F....0.00"....80%
July 16th - 85°F/54°F....0.00"....95%
July 17th - 84°F/60°F....1.18"....60%
July 18th - 88°F/62°F....0.00"....75%
July 19th - 89°F/64°F....0.00"....60%
July 20th - 90°F/65°F....0.52"....60%
July 21st - 82°F/64°F....0.03"....40%
July 22nd - 81°F/59°F....1.12"....40%

Permalink

Flooding expected/Hurricane Dolly update

By: sullivanweather, 11:35 AM GMT on July 21, 2008

Tropical Update


Cristobal


Latest satellite image of Tropical Storm Cristobal.

At the 5am EDT (Monday) National Hurricane Center advisory, Tropical Storm Cristobal was located at 36.1°N 73.9°W, or 110mi northeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. Maximum sustained winds are around 50mph with a estimated minimum central pressure of 1004mb. Cristobal is moving to the northeast around 13mph. Cristobal consists mainly of a blob on deep convection on the east-side of the cyclone. Westerly shear is beginning to have an impact on Cristobal as outflow on the western side of the cyclone is non-existent.

There's not much else to say about Cristobal as it should continue to endure increasing shear, leading to a very disorganized system with all of the deep convection remaining offshore the East Coast of the United States. There's a chance that Cristobal will strengthen slightly as it begins to accelerate to the northeast later today, perhaps attaining 60mph strength. Otherwise, Cristobal will be a mariner hazard and kick up some high surf along the coast for beach-goers resulting in a high risk for rip currents. Some 'pre' activity may contribute to heavier showers on Long Island and along the New England coast as low-level frontogenic forcing increases along the trough straddling the coast. After 48 hours Cristobal's position will be near Nova Scotia as it either undergoes extratropical transition or becomes absorbed into the baroclinic zone over this region.


Additional analysis of 'pre' activity ahead of Cristobal

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Dolly



Latest satellite image of Tropical Storm Dolly.


Tuesday afternoon update

Dolly now a hurricane.

At the 5pm EDT (Tuesday) National hurricane Center advisory the center of Hurricane Dolly was located at 24.6°N 95.3°W, or about 165 miles east-southeast of Brownsville, Texas. Maximum sustained winds are around 75mph and the minimum estimated central pressure is 986mb. Previous reasoning from this morning applies to the current forecast.


Tuesday morning update

At the 5am EDT (Tuesday) National hurricane Center advisory the center of Tropical Storm Dolly was located at 23.3°N 93.8°W, or about 295 miles southeast of Brownsville, Texas. Maximum sustained winds are around 60mph and the minimum estimated central pressure is 997mb. Dolly is moving to the west at 15mph. Dolly has become much better organized during the overnight, developing a central dense overcast within a structurally improving inner-core. Banding has drastically improved over the northern and western semi-circles and it now appears that Dolly is on the verge of becoming a hurricane. Outflow is excellent in the northern and western quadrants with a well-defined outflow channel noted venting clockwise around the upper ridge over the central Gulf of Mexico down into the Caribbean. Outflow is restricted in the western quadrant and non-existent in the southern quadrant. The upper low the has been hindering Dolly's development thus far is weakening over Old Mexico, allowing for this sudden burst of intensification.

Dolly should continue to intensify over the next 18-24 hours while over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. In fact, Dolly may become a strong category 2 storm at peak intensity. As Dolly approaches the coast oceanic heat content decreases and the cyclone will begin to ingest some dry continental air, likely putting Dolly in a steady state or slight weakening trend in the hours before she comes ashore. Upon moving inland rapid weakening should occur and Dolly should be nothing more than a heavy rain producing tropical depression by late Thursday afternoon.

Dolly should continue on a just north of due west track over the next 6-12 hours. Thereafter a slightly more northerly component to Dolly track should ensue as the storm grows stonger and begins to feel a weakness in the ridge to her north. Dolly should also slow her forward speed to around 10mph or slightly less during the evening into the overnight tonight. It is still expected that Dolly will make landfall over the Rio Grande Valley region along the international border sometime during the day on Wednesday. As Dolly loses her vertical structure after landfall the storm will bend back towards the west in the low-level flow into Old Mexico.

Previous Discussion



At the 8am EDT (Monday) National hurricane Center intermediate advisory the ill-defined center of Tropical Storm Dolly was located at 21.6°N 88.7°W along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Maximum sustained winds are around 50mph and the minimum estimated central pressure is 1005mb. Dolly is moving to the west-northwest at 16mph. Tropical Storm Dolly continues to look very disorganized on satellite imagery with the mid-level center about 40miles west-northwest of the low-level center along the northern coast of the Yucatan. Outflow remains good to the north and east of the cyclone but fair to poor in the southern and western quadrants. The atmosphere surrounding Dolly is quite moist as satellite derived precipitable water soundings are upwards of 2.5". The upper level low which has been moving in tandem with Dolly has also begun to outrun the cyclone. and is now moving towards the west-southwest into the southwestern Bay of Campeche. Given the favorable outflow pattern and highly moist environmental conditions and deep warm waters along her projected path, the only factor holding the storm from intensifying is a poorly-defined inner structure of the storm.

Dolly should gradually get her act together over the next 24 hours as expectations are that she'll finally be able to develop a well-defined center of circulation. Dolly should also slow her forward speed giving the system more time to develop before reaching the Rio Grande River Valley region. In all likelihood Dolly will become a hurricane by Tuesday evening or early Wednesday morning and make landfall at hurricane strength Wednesday evening. Dolly should continue on her west-northwest track right up until landfall then bend to the west as it moves under the upper level ridge over the southern Plains. Despite drought conditions which have persisted since last autumn over the Rio Grande Valley, heavy rains from Dolly combined with recent heavy rains from several tropical waves that have come ashore in this region could lead to flash/river flooding. Moisture from Dolly will eventually become incorporated into the newly dubbed ‘North American Monsoon’ bringing additional rain to the Southwest. This moisture should eventually find the westerlies and could bring MCS activity to the northerntier of the country by next weekend.

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Elsewhere in the tropics a strong tropical wave is forecast to move off the Coast of Senegal later today or early tomorrow. This AEW has a chance of becoming the next system of concern as several forecast models develop this wave into a tropical cyclone over the next 48-72 hours.

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Regional Forecast


Synopsis - Issued 7/21 - 7:30am


A rather unsettled weather pattern is expected for much of the region this week as a deep trough takes up residence over the Great Lakes and Northeast. Several shortwave disturbances will round the base of this trough to bring showers and thunderstorms to the region with the first to rotate through today. Tropical Storm Cristobal will make a close pass to southern New England on it's way to Nova Scotia tonight and Tuesday which may brush the coast with some rain, wind, high surf and rip currents. The next system of concern moves into the region Tuesday night through Thursday. The trough over the eastern Great Lakes will sharpen and deepen, tilting negative to boot. Combined with a strong western Atlantic ridge just offshore, the southerly flow will increase bringing tremendous amounts of tropical moisture over the region leading to a potentially heavy rainfall event from eastern Pennsylvania into New England. The main moisture axis moves offshore Friday but with the upper trough axis remaining over the region and cool air aloft, instability showers and thundershowers may develop with diurnal heating. As quickly as one trough lifts the next follows quickly on its heels. Accompanied by a sharp cold front, this trough will likely bring renewed chances for precipitation to western sections Saturday and the whole region Sunday. Upper low lingers over the region early next week with scattered showers and below normal temperatures.


Short-term - Issued 7/21 - 7:30am


Scattered showers are present in the Northeast this morning along coastal New England and isolated activity extends over central New York. Otherwise expect partly cloudy skies this morning with patchy fog in the river valleys. Height/thickness falls, dry air moving into the region and a lowering of 850mb temperatures will bring a slightly cooler, less humid day to the region. None-the-less, temperatures along the southern coastal plain and the southerntier of Pennsylvania should climb into the upper 80's to low 90's and enough humidity will linger to still make it feel uncomfortable. Over the interior and northern coastal plain temperatures will likely rise into the 80's with mid to upper 70's over the higher terrain of northern New York and New England. A weak mid-level disturbance will move across the region this afternoon, combining with residual low pressure over the region touching off some showers and thunderstorms, some of which could be severe over southeastern New York and southern New England. Moderate levels of instability will be present over this region with mlCAPE values approaching 1,000J/kg as well as favorable jet dynamics and a 40kt mid-level westerly flow. Moisture is somewhat lacking, confined to the lower levels of the atmosphere with precipitable water values of 1.1-1.4" leading to more scattered convection as opposed to widespread activity. Dry air above the 700mb level will also increase the threat for severe wind gusts and small hail along with the lowering freezing levels and DVA in mid-levels.

Convection associated with the mid-level disturbance dies quickly after dusk with loss of heating and the disturbance itself moving offshore leaving behind partly cloudy skies and patchy valley fog. MCS activity over the Ohio Valley may penetrate into southwestern/south-central Pennsylvania late in the evening into the overnight and will need to be watched. Temperatures will fall into the upper 60's to low 70's along the coastal plain with 60's across the interior. Some of the higher terrain up north will fall into the 50's.


Updated Tuesday


Going to be brief this morning for depending on one's perspective, it's early. But for me, it's late.


A strong MCS that blow through much of the Midwest and Ohio Valley during the overnight will brush southwestern Pennsylvania with some rainfall but most of the thunderstorm activity will be found to the south over West Virginia and Maryland. A few other isolated storms are moving off Lake Erie into northwestern Pennsylvania and southwestern New York State. Otherwise partly to mostly cloudy skies will be the rule for most everywhere else.

The SPC has placed the southeastern third of the region under a slight threat for severe weather today. This area lies in the right rear quadrant of a 70-90kt upper jet streak while a mid-level disturbance associated with 12 hour height falls of 30m slides through Pennsylvania overtop a trough lingering at the surface. Remnants of MCS will also lead to differential heating and additional outflow boundaries to trigger late morning/afternoon convection that will move east-northeastward through Pennsylvania into New Jersey and the southerntier of New York eventually moving into southern/central New England. Further north scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop with diurnal heating but these are not expected to be severe, although a stonger storm may be able to tap sronger flow aloft for severe wind gusts. However this threat is very slim.


Previous Discussion


The surface low pressure will continue to remain over the Northeast on Tuesday as the upper trough digs into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. A mid-level disturbance riding out ahead of the trough will slide across the Northeast bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms to the region. Some of these storms may be severe with the primary threat being the potential for wind damage. Tropical Storm Cristobal will also make its closest approach to southeastern southern New England Tuesday morning and may brush the coast with some wind and rain, although most of Cristobal's effects will be felt offshore. Late in the afternoon a wave of low pressure will develop along the southern tip of this trough that will bring a heavy rain event to the region mid-week. Temperatures will rise into the 80's across most locations on Tuesday. Exceptions will be along the southern coastal plain where a few 90 degree readings may be reached and the higher terrain up north with temperatures will likely be held in the 70's.

The first in a series of low pressure waves riding northward along a surface trough into the Northeast will move into the region Tuesday night. Steady rain and thundershowers are expected to spread over the eastern half of Pennsylvania into eastern New York and western New England. Elsewhere expect partly to mostly cloudy skies. Temperatures will fall into the 60's.


Mid-term - Issued 7/21 - 7:30am


Updated mid-term

Not many changes in the mid-term, but I did want to hilight the increasing threat for flooding rains beginning Wednesday morning and especially by Thursday morning as several waves of low pressure take a very similar track between the Delaware River and Connecticut River Valleys. Models continue to prog several inches of rain between central Pennsylvania and western New England with the greatest chance for flooding over the Hudson River Valley and the Catskills/Taconics/Berkshires up into the Adirondacks and Green and White Mountains of Vermont and New Hampshire. Just to throw it out there, the 06UTC NAM is showing 5-6 inches of rain up the Hudson River Valley up to Albany along a strong theta-e ridge. This scenario is very unlikely but clearly shows the connection to deep tropical moisture with precipitable water values rising well over 2". Flash flood guidance is generally running between 3 and 5 inches over a 12-24 hour period but there's a decent chance this will be reached over several locations. Further north over Vermont flash flood guidance is much lower, around 2-2.5". Flooding is expected to be worst over Vermont where recent bouts of heavy rainfall have left this area vulnerable to any additional heavy rain. This developing situation will be closely montiored leading up to the event and during the event.


Previous Discussion


Upper trough continues to dig and tilt negative on Wednesday. Offshore, high pressure over the western Atlantic will give little ground. Increasing gradient between these two synoptic features will bring a 40kt southerly low-level jet into eastern New York and southern New England. As several waves of low pressure ride up the stalled trough along the coast several periods of heavy rainfall appear likely at this time. Medium-range models all depict at least one inch of rain with several members showing as much as 5 inches of rain before all is set and done. The trough will make very little eastward progress but will finally begin to pick up its heels by Thursday afternoon pushing most of its associated moisture offshore the Jersey shore and up into northern New England. Western sections will likely remain dry, but a passing shower or two may temporarily wet the ground. Temperatures will likely be slightly below normal across western section, near-normal over central sections under the precipitation and slightly above normal across eastern sections given the moist tropical airmass expected over this area.




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Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar


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Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.



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July Daily Weather Statistics


July 1st - 75°F/55°F.....Trace....60%
July 2nd - 80°F/54°F.....0.00"....90%
July 3rd - 79°F/54°F.....0.31"....20%
July 4th - 71°F/63°F.....Trace.....5%
July 5th - 80°F/59°F.....0.00"....40%
July 6th - 81°F/63°F.....0.00"....50%
July 7th - 82°F/66°F.....0.00"....50%
July 8th - 84°F/67°F.....0.00"....60%
July 9th - 79°F/64°F.....0.21"....50%
July 10th - 75°F/57°F....0.00"....80%
July 11th - 79°F/52°F....0.00"....70%
July 12th - 86°F/64°F....0.00"....80%
July 13th - 80°F/65°F....0.72"....20%
July 14th - 77°F/63°F....0.03"....80%
July 15th - 79°F/55°F....0.00"....80%
July 16th - 85°F/54°F....0.00"....95%
July 17th - 84°F/60°F....1.18"....60%
July 18th - 88°F/62°F....0.00"....75%
July 19th - 89°F/64°F....0.00"....60%
July 20th - 90°F/65°F....0.52"....60%

Updated: 9:31 PM GMT on July 22, 2008

Permalink

Severe storms/More action in the tropics.

By: sullivanweather, 5:56 PM GMT on July 20, 2008

Tropical Update

Coming later...


Cristobal


Latest satellite image of Tropical Storm Cristobal.


At the 2pm EDT intermediate advisory from the National hurricane Center, Tropical Storm Cristobal was located at 34.6°N 76.1°W, or about 25 miles east of Cape Lookout, North Carolina. Maximum sustained winds have weakened to 45mph. Estimated central pressure is 1007mb. Cristobal consists mainly of a low-level cloud swirl with most of the convection located well to the south and southeast of the center. Cristobal is struggling to overcome the dry air over the Piedmont being drawn into the circulation.

Cristobal should change very little in strength while over the Outer Banks while it continues to ingest dry air. Once moving out over the open waters east of Tidewater some strengthen is possible as it moves into a higher moisture content environment. However, SST's fall off quickly once out of the Gulf Stream waters and shear will increase as the cyclone approaches the belt of westerlies over the Northeast. It is possible that Cristobal will become a 60mph tropical storm tomorrow morning as it parallels the East Coast. The storms center will come close to Cape Cod Monday night and may bring tropical storm force winds there before bending east towards Nove Scotia as a weakening tropical storm undergoing extratropical transition.



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Dolly



Latest satellite image of Tropical Storm Dolly.


After antagonizing all eyes watching for the last week, the disturbance ‘94L’ has finally attained a low-level circulation center, becoming Tropical Storm Dolly. Surface winds with this system have been at tropical storm strength for the last 24-36 hours, hence skipping the depression status and jumping right to a tropical storm once acquiring a well-defined low-level center. At the 2pm EDT NHC intermediate advisory Tropical Storm Dolly was located at 18.6°N 84.5°W, or about 200 miles southeast of Cozumel, Mexico. Dolly is moving to the northwest at 15mph and maximum sustained winds are 45mph. Estimated lowest pressure is 1008mb.

Now that a circulation center has formed strengthening should occur over the next 12-18 hours until landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula overnight Sunday. While it is not expected for Dolly to become a hurricane before landfall, it may come close, likely attaining up to 60mph sustained winds. The storm will weakening while over land, but should still emerge in the Gulf of Mexico as a tropical storm. Dolly’s trip over the Yucatan will dictate how big of a threat she will be once in the Gulf. A longer, more southerly course and a weaker, more disorganized storm will emerge in the northern Bay of Campeche. Having to take some time to reorganize itself, Dolly would likely make landfall along the central coast of Mexico as a tropical storm. If Dolly takes a more northerly course, it will spend less time over the Yucatan and the frictional component of the land may actually tighten it’s rather lopsided circulation. A much more organized system will emerge in the Gulf of Mexico and would likely strengthen into a hurricane after about 24 hours over water. Having taken a more northerly course would put southern Texas at greater threat for a landfalling hurricane, possible by Wednesday. Much more will be known over the next 12-24 hours as Dolly is still in her infancy and may tend to have erratic forward motion until finding her niche. But all interests in the western Gulf of Mexico should pay close attention to Dolly as it will soon be a threat.


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Regional Forecast


Update

After a closer inspection of SPC mesoanalysis pages I'm going to be adding a tornadic threat from the Finger lakes region of New York into the Mohawk Valley. A line of thunderstorms developing over the Niagara Frontier will push east into this area where a strengthening low level jet is punching into a weak baroclinic zone. There's 20-30° of 850/500mb directional shear and 0-1km helicity values are approaching 200/m2/s2. These conditions may allow for rotating thunderstorms capable of producing tornados.


Previous Discussion

Widespread rain and embedded thundershowers arc across northern New York to southern Maine associated with a wave of low pressure riding along a warm frontal boundary. This shield of precipitation should slowly push northward during the afternoon with stronger thunderstorms developing on the south of the warm front in the more unstable airmass aided by differential heating from the cloud shield to the north. To the south much of the morning has been spent under full sun and temperatures have responded by rising into the mid 80's to low 90's. This has also allowed the atmosphere to destabilize, with mlCAPE values of 1,000-1,500J/kg across much of Pennsylvania. A rather potent MCV is moving out of Ohio into Pennsylvania sparking off thunderstorms in this unstable airmass. Bulk shear is running between 25-35kts so some organization of these storms into a MCS will occur as they march across Pennsylvania this afternoon. East of the Appalachians low-level lapse rates are greater than 8C/km and there's some dry air in mid levels which will enhance the threat for severe wind gusts. A pocket of differential vorticity advection is straddling the New York Pennsylvania border which may aid in mid level rotation of updrafts increasing the hail threat across this region. In addition to the severe threat, Precipitable water values approach 2" in association with the MCS, so very heavy rain leading to localized flash flooding will also be an issue. Especially where storms train or back-build.

Shower and thunderstorms along the warm front spread north over Maine during the evening hours and move offshore during the overnight. Meanwhile the MCS will continue to blow east across eastern Pennsylvania into southern New England. Some weakening of this feature is expected with loss of daytime heating, but it should maintain itself right to the coast. Shortwave energy will continue to move through the region during the overnight, combining with waning but still present instability to spark off scattered showers and thundershowers. Airmass is still very moist over the region so any precipitation could be potentially heavy.



___________________________________________________________




Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar


___________________________________________________________

Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.



___________________________________________________________



July Daily Weather Statistics


July 1st - 75°F/55°F.....Trace....60%
July 2nd - 80°F/54°F.....0.00"....90%
July 3rd - 79°F/54°F.....0.31"....20%
July 4th - 71°F/63°F.....Trace.....5%
July 5th - 80°F/59°F.....0.00"....40%
July 6th - 81°F/63°F.....0.00"....50%
July 7th - 82°F/66°F.....0.00"....50%
July 8th - 84°F/67°F.....0.00"....60%
July 9th - 79°F/64°F.....0.21"....50%
July 10th - 75°F/57°F....0.00"....80%
July 11th - 79°F/52°F....0.00"....70%
July 12th - 86°F/64°F....0.00"....80%
July 13th - 80°F/65°F....0.72"....20%
July 14th - 77°F/63°F....0.03"....80%
July 15th - 79°F/55°F....0.00"....80%
July 16th - 85°F/54°F....0.00"....95%
July 17th - 84°F/60°F....1.18"....60%
July 18th - 88°F/62°F....0.00"....75%

Updated: 7:27 PM GMT on July 20, 2008

Permalink

Eastern trough to return/tropical update

By: sullivanweather, 9:13 AM GMT on July 19, 2008

Tropical Update

Coming later...


Bertha


Latest satellite image of Bertha.

At 5am EDT Hurricane Bertha was located at 41.2°N 47.4°W, moving towards the northeast at 25mph. Maximum sustained winds were at 75mph, with higher gusts. Estimated pressure is 989mb.

Bertha is now firmly located within the mid-latitude westerlies over progressively cooler waters and should begin extra-tropical transition within 24 hours. For the time being, Bertha resembles a well-formed category one hurricane, which may even have stronger winds than issued in the advisory. The 25mi wide eye is located in the center of the CDO with good poleward outflow. However, convection is becoming more shallow and cloud tops have warmed over the previous 6 hours. Perhaps the beginning of the end to this record breaking cyclone.


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TD#3


Latest satellite image of Tropical Depression Three.


At 5am EDT Tropical Depression Three was located at 32.4°N 79.4°W, or 45 miles southeast of Charleston, South Carolina. The depression was moving slowly towards the northeast at 5mph. Maximum sustained winds are 30mph. Estimated minimum pressure is 1009mb.

The center of the depressing is rather ill-defined and appears to be on the north side of a cyclonically curved band of convection just offshore. Very dry air lies to the north of the depression over North Carolina and will limit much of the convection away from the immediate coast. Precipitable water values here are under an inch and this dry air will be incorporated into the circulation center, greatly inhibiting intensification. However, it won't take much for this system to strengthen into a tropical storm and it should do so within 24 hours close to the North Carolina Coast. The storm will continue on a slow course up the East Coast through Sunday night. Proximity to land and increasing shear by Monday will prevent anything much stronger than a 50mph tropical storm. A trough moving off the coast late Monday should absorb the system, perhaps bringing stronger winds and heavy rain to coastal New England.


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94L



Latest satellite image of tropical disturbance "94L".



A strong tropical wave in the central Caribbean, dubbed '94L' almost a week ago, keeps chugging along to the west-northwest accompanied by strong convective flare-ups. This system has continuously shown signs of becoming organized, only to fade into disorganization just as fast. Now that the disturbance has cleared the South American land mass and is under a low shear/high moisture/warm SST environment conditions appear favorable for this system to develop into the next depression of the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season with the next 24-36 hours.

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Regional Forecast


Synopsis - Issued 7/19 - 5:10am


A weak frontal boundary will move south and stall along the New York-Pennsylvania border today then return north as a warm front Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms will accompany this feature, especially during the afternoon and evening hours. A sharpening positively tilted trough will dig into the Great Lakes region on Monday increasing the thunderstorm threat over the entire region. Some storms may be severe with favorable jet dynamics and contain very heavy rain given the tropical airmass over the region. Eyes will also be on TD#3, forecast to possibly develop further into a tropical storm and make a close pass by of coastal areas from New Jersey to Cape Cod. Trough lingers through Tuesday and Wednesday keeping unsettled conditions around from time to time then slowly lifts by Thursday. Warmer and more humid conditions return by weeks' end with chances for showers and thunderstorms increasing into next weekend.



Short-term - Issued 7/19 - 5:10am


A couple clusters of thundershowers remain over the Northeast this overnight. One over eastern Maine, the other moving across the Adirondacks into northern and central Vermont. These areas of precipitation should continue through the overnight moving towards the east-southeast around 30mph. A few isolated thundershowers may pop outside these regions along the frontal boundary. Otherwise, it'll be a warm, muggy night with patchy fog, especially in the river valleys.

Aside from the aforementioned clouds and showers across the north, Saturday should start under a hazy, mostly sunny sky for the southern half of the region. 850mb temps rise to 19-20°C across much of this area. Near full sun and decent mixing will allow temperatures to skyrocket into the 85-92°F range by late morning and into the 90's pretty much everywhere by afternoon. One saving grace along the coastal plain may be a pocket of drier air aloft that will mix down during peak heating preventing oppressive heat indices but it will still be darn hot. The atmosphere is well-capped but a couple cells broke through the cap off the ridge tops in south-central Pennsylvania and may do so again today. The real action will be further north, closer to the frontal boundary. Some mid and high level cloudiness will be drifting over the area during the morning hours, but enough filtered sunshine will adequately destabilize the atmosphere. A weak mid-level disturbance currently over Michigan will move east along the front and aid in triggering storms this afternoon. Slight height falls @500mb and an increase in mid-level lapse rates are noted with this feature. Bulk shear isn’t impressive across the central portion of the region, generally under 30kts, so organized storms aren’t expected here. Mainly pulse storms and smaller multi-clusters but some of them may become severe given high low-level lapse rates during peak heating, accelerating the unidirectional westerly flow over the region. Winds aloft and bulk shear are a bit stronger over northern New York, Vermont, New Hampshire and southern Maine which may support storms organizing into line segments capable of severe straight-line winds. Stronger cells will also be capable of producing nickel-sized hail. Temperatures will rise into the 80’s across most of the region, with a few 90 degree readings in the valleys and a few 70 degree readings across the higher terrain.

Once again, convection wanes but doesn’t completely die Saturday night. Enough convergence along the frontal boundary and elevated instability will sustain isolated convection throughout the night. Still remaining warm and muggy with temperatures likely holding in the 70’s across much of the region, with 60’s across the far north and under precipitation.

The stalled front begin to lift north during the day on Sunday. Once again, with diurnal heating, this frontal boundary will serve as the focus for showers and thunderstorms. Add to the mix a wave of low pressure moving into the region from the Great Lakes late in the day and widespread showers and thunderstorms are possible. Small differences exist in the models to the track of this wave, but this feature should be accompanied by an MCS that will gain strength as it moves into highly unstable airmass over the region. Severe weather is possible in the form of strong winds and large hail. Temperatures will be quite warm once again. Highs should climb into the upper 80’s to low 90’s across the southern half of the region. Clouds and precipitation to the north will hold temperatures in the 70’s and 80’s but it will feel muggy throughout.

MCS associated with the wave of low pressure continues through the region Sunday night, moving offshore late. Additional showers and thunderstorms will continue along the frontal boundary, which should be over northern New York eastward to the southern Maine Coast. Further south skies will be partly to mostly cloudy. Temperatures will range from the 70’s along the coastal plain to the 60’s over the interior.


Mid and long term coming this afternoon.

___________________________________________________________




Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar


___________________________________________________________

Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.



___________________________________________________________





July Daily Weather Statistics


July 1st - 75°F/55°F.....Trace....60%
July 2nd - 80°F/54°F.....0.00"....90%
July 3rd - 79°F/54°F.....0.31"....20%
July 4th - 71°F/63°F.....Trace.....5%
July 5th - 80°F/59°F.....0.00"....40%
July 6th - 81°F/63°F.....0.00"....50%
July 7th - 82°F/66°F.....0.00"....50%
July 8th - 84°F/67°F.....0.00"....60%
July 9th - 79°F/64°F.....0.21"....50%
July 10th - 75°F/57°F....0.00"....80%
July 11th - 79°F/52°F....0.00"....70%
July 12th - 86°F/64°F....0.00"....80%
July 13th - 80°F/65°F....0.72"....20%
July 14th - 77°F/63°F....0.03"....80%
July 15th - 79°F/55°F....0.00"....80%
July 16th - 85°F/54°F....0.00"....95%
July 17th - 84°F/60°F....1.18"....60%
July 18th - 88°F/62°F....0.00"....75%

Updated: 10:23 AM GMT on July 19, 2008

Permalink

Possible storms/Tropics heating up

By: sullivanweather, 10:14 AM GMT on July 17, 2008

Tropical Update


Synopsis and prognostication based on observations through 7/17 @ 6am.


Bertha


Latest satellite image of Bertha.


At 5am EDT Tropical Storm Bertha was located at 34.5°N, 59.2°W, moving towards the southeast, or 140°, at 10mph. Maximum sustained winds are near 60mph with higher gusts. Pressure is estimated at 997mb.

Bertha has endured northwesterly shear over the previous 24-36 hours which has steadily weakened the system as an upper level low approached from the northeast. That system is now lifting northward as Bertha slides underneath. Over the next 24-36 hours Bertha will accelerate eastward then make a left turn towards the northeast as it crosses the upper trough axis ahead of the cyclone. With the storm moving over slightly warmer SST's and moving in tandem with the shear over the system, lessening its effect on Bertha, there's a chance that Bertha may once again gain strength. Although it is unlikely that Bertha will become a hurricane. In about 72 hours Bertha will undergo extra-tropical transition and the book will close on the longest-lived Atlantic Basin July tropical cyclone.


94L



Latest satellite image of tropical disturbance "94L".

After showing some promising signs yesterday, 94L was never able to consolidate into a tropical cyclone as the circulation remained broad and ill-defined. Squally weather can be expected across the island and along the northern coast of South America with this disturbance. Development into a tropical cyclone is unlikely in the 'dead zone' of the southeastern Caribbean Sea. As this system moves into the central and western Caribbean conditions will become more favorable for development.


A tropical wave with a surface low pressure along its axis is over the southern Caribbean, off the coast of Nicaragua that may develop into a tropical depression before coming ashore. A broad circulation exists in association with this disturbance and strong convection has recently develop closer to the center of circulation. Upper level high pressure is over this area and the atmosphere is plenty moist. There's about an 18-24 hours window for development to occur. This system will surely need to be monitored on both the Atlantic and Pacific Basins for development.


Another disturbance is off the east coast of Florida that's showing signs of development. A stationary trough (leftovers of the cold front that moved off the coast Monday) has been producing scattered showers and thunderstorms for the past several days. Multiple small vorticies developed along this trough yesterday morning from the eastern Gulf of Mexico northeastwards off the South Carolina coast. By last evening a dominate low pressure developed over central Florida and has now moved northeastwards to its current position northeast of Daytona Beach. Convection is limited with this system, but it is now over the warm open waters of the Gulf Stream. Upper level winds are favorable for development and with the system being right on the East Coasts' doorstep, it will need to be closely monitored. In any event, if development were to occur it would be unlikely for this system to strengthen into anything more than a minimal tropical storm. This system, were it to develop will probably be nothing more than a beneficial rain maker for the parched Southeast.


Elsewhere in the tropics, another strong wave has moved off the African Coast. There's a plenty moist environment and favorable upper level winds in the path of this wave. Certinaly another area to watch given the early start to the Cape Verde season this year.


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Regional Forecast


Synopsis - Issued 7/17 - 6:30am

The Northeast resides under a very warm and humid airmass that will get hotter Friday and Saturday with 90+ degree heat across much of the southern half of the region. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms may pop up today given the juicy atmosphere but most of the region will remain capped through Saturday. The potential for a MCS to clip northern Maine exists Friday night as a stronger disturbance moves across southern Canada. Cap erodes by Sunday and chances for diurnal convection increase. The next significant system moves towards the Northeast via the Great Lakes region bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms early next week. Another factor to consider is the potential tropical development off the Southeast Coast that will be caught in the deep southerly flow ahead of this system. Whatever form this system arrives in, it will increase the deep tropical moisture over the region and the potential for flash flooding will arise.

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Short-term - Issued 7/17 - 7:40am


A few scattered showers are over western New York this morning in association with a MCV over eastern Lake Erie that will have implication on today's weather across the central sections of the Northeast. Clouds from this system have spread over much of western New York and Pennsylvania northeastward into the Adirondacks/St.Lawrence Valley region giving these area a partly cloudy start to the day. Elsewhere skies are mostly clear and hazy/misty with patchy fog in the river valleys across the interior. Morning sun should quickly burn off any fog and warm the region quickly given good mixing and nearly full sun under 850mb temps of 15-18°C across the southern half of the region. This should allow for a rapid rise in temperatures this morning as highs across much of this region will climb into the upper 80's to low 90's (mid 80's over the higher terrain). Across the north temperatures are a bit cooler at 850mb (12-15°C) and should make for highs in the upper 70's over the higher terrain to the mid 80's in the valleys. The aforementioned MCV will move across central and eastern New York this afternoon in tandem with a weak surface trough. These features will be the focal point for afternoon convection, some of which may be severe. mlCAPE values rise to 1,000-1,500 J/kg as mid-level lapse rates increase and a surge of moisture below 800mb moves into the region. Winds below 500mb are fairly light and bulk shear is generally under 30kts. Storms will have a general east-southeastward movement at a slow rate of speed and a few may stall. With precipitable water values of 1.5”+ advecting into the region, storms will have the capability of producing a lot of rain in a short period of time. Given their slow movement flash flooding may become an issue, however, FFG is generally over 2” in one hour and over 4” in three. The ground should be able to handle whatever rain falls today given the dry antedecent conditions. Pockets of dry air exist over 700mb, increasing in the 500mb level so a few wet microbursts may occur with some of the stronger, taller storms. This will also increase the hail threat, despite freezing levels over 12,000’. Storms today should have enough updraft to easily punch through this level. Other isolated terrain origin thunderstorms will develop over northern New York and New England. Shear is a little higher over this area so once developed storms will have a better chance of maintaining themselves and move down into the valleys. Areas across the coastal plain should remain precipitation-free as atmosphere remains capped throughout the afternoon.

A muggy night is in store for the northeast tonight as warm advection continues abated throughout the night. Any leftover convection will end by midnight leaving behind partly cloudy to mostly clear skies. Temperatures will drop into the 60’s across the inteiror with 70’s along the coastal plain. Areas of patchy fog will develop in the river valleys and where ever rain falls from afternoon convection.

Warm humid air continues to flood into the region on Friday as 850mb temperatures rise 2-3°C from today’s readings. The warming in the low-mid levels of the atmosphere should cap off the southern half of the region to any convection. Here temperatures will climb into the low to mid 90’s under brilliant sunshine with only the higher terrain remaining in the 80’s. Further to the north the leftover surface boundary moving through New York today will return northward as a warm front as several mid-level impulses ride the zonal flow across the northern-tier of the country into the region. The combination of these features will spark rounds of afternoon convection across this area. Bulk shear will increase as well, to ~40kts helping to organize storms. With the stronger winds aloft, storms will have the chance for producing severe wind gusts of over 60mph. Temperatures across the north will likely rise into the 80’s.

A much stronger disturbance moves across southern Canada into northern Maine Friday night, sparking off a strong MCS system. This complex of thunderstorms will have the capability to produce severe wind gusts as it tracks along the US/Canadian border region during the evening into the overnight. Elsewhere mostly clear skies with patchy fog will be the rule. Overnight lows will fall back into the 60’s across the north with 70’s in most other locales.


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Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar


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Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.



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July Daily Weather Statistics


July 1st - 75°F/55°F.....Trace....60%
July 2nd - 80°F/54°F.....0.00"....90%
July 3rd - 79°F/54°F.....0.31"....20%
July 4th - 71°F/63°F.....Trace.....5%
July 5th - 80°F/59°F.....0.00"....40%
July 6th - 81°F/63°F.....0.00"....50%
July 7th - 82°F/66°F.....0.00"....50%
July 8th - 84°F/67°F.....0.00"....60%
July 9th - 79°F/64°F.....0.21"....50%
July 10th - 75°F/57°F....0.00"....80%
July 11th - 79°F/52°F....0.00"....70%
July 12th - 86°F/64°F....0.00"....80%
July 13th - 80°F/65°F....0.72"....20%
July 14th - 77°F/63°F....0.03"....80%
July 15th - 79°F/55°F....0.00"....80%
July 16th - 85°F/54°F....0.00"....95%

Updated: 11:44 AM GMT on July 17, 2008

Permalink

Upcoming heat/Active tropics

By: sullivanweather, 7:23 AM GMT on July 14, 2008

Tropical Update


Synopsis and prognostication based on observations through 7/14 @ 3am.


Bertha


Latest satellite image of Bertha.


Update!!

New data from aircraft reconnaissance mission indicates that Bertha's maximum sustained winds have strengthened to 70mph and is on the verge of becoming a hurricane. Satellite presentation of the cyclone has improved throughout the day as the storm moves away from the cool pool of water Bertha helped to stir up. Convection has developed into a cyclonically-curved band (0.9 arc) that spirals in towards the center. In all likelyhood, Bertha will be a hurricane once again by this evening. The government of the island of Bermuda have issued hurricane watches in response to this recent increase in intensity with the cyclone.

------

previous discussion


At 11pm EDT Tropical Storm Bertha was located at 30.5°N, 63.1°W, moving to the north-northwest (335°) at 3mph. Maximum sustained winds are at 65mph, with higher gusts. Estimated minimum pressure is 990mb. Bertha has remained in the same general vicinity for the previous 48 hours, churning up cooler waters that's slowly choking off the cyclone's heat source weakening the storm. Over time, convection as waned and the system has become more shallow.

Bertha is finally starting to show signs of movement as she drifts to the north-northwest. Over the next 36-48 hours Bertha should slowly gain a little more momentum, bringing her forward motion to 7-8kts, and take a bend to a more northerly direction. This movement will bring the storm close enough to Bermuda for sustained tropical storm force winds to affect the island. Stronger gusts will occur in convective bursts that rotate around the cyclone over the island, along with 2-4 inches of rain in total from the storm. A digging shortwave within the overall trough moving off the East Coast should induce a southward shift of the prevailing westerlies. This should steer Bertha towards the east, a change from previous thinking (I originally forecasted the storm to accelerate north-northeastwards towards the Davis Strait). A blocking high over the North-central Atlantic may keep Bertha around for the next week over the open waters of the Atlantic. However, the gain in latitude will make the cyclone more susceptible to be swept northward by any ensuing troughs.

As Bertha begins her northward movement the cyclone should gain some intensity as it moves back over warmer, less disturbed waters. Bertha may even strengthen into a hurricane once again in the next day or two. However, once north of 35°N, the storm will encounter a more hostile environment as westerly shear will begin to take it's toll. Bertha will also encounter cooler waters, but warm enough to sustain some level of convection, so Bertha won't die gracefully. Slow weakening is expected days 4-7, likely from a minimal hurricane/strong tropical storm to a minimal tropical storm. But Bertha should survive over the next week which would make her the longest lived July tropical cyclone in the Atlantic basin.


-------------


94L (future TD#3/Cristobal??)




Latest satellite image of tropical disturbance "94L".

Update #2

Updated 7:15am 7/15.

Thus far tropical disturbance 94L has failed to maintain convection through diurnal cycles and remains a low pressure along a tropical wave. Overnight the mid-level center has trailed behind the low-level center which is now located under the east side of the most recent flare up of convection. Estimated low-level center position at 5am EDT is 12.2°N, 47.2°W. It should be noted that the overall circulation is broad and elongated. With this being the case the center may have a tendency to jump around towards convective flare ups should persistent convection fail to occur.

Once again, 94L will be fighting against diurnal factors today and it remains to be seen whether or not the most recent convective outburst will sustain the day. Weak banding features would suggest that convection should wane as diurnal min approaches. Dry air lies in the projected path of the low and has also made an intrusion into the southern half of the system. So there’s some factors working against development of this system in the near term, despite the most recent flare up this morning. On the other hand, shear remains light in the upper levels and there’s a good pocket of moisture trailing the low shown on SSM/I microwave imagery.

Chances are still good that 94L will develop into a depression during the next 24-36 hours but since failing to do so as of yet, the Lesser Antilles should be looking at a weaker system than expected yesterday. If a tropical cyclone develops, it will likely remain below hurricane strength upon encountering the islands. Given the broad circulation of the system and some of the negative factors mentioned above, only slow development, if any, is expected.


Update #1

Updated - based on observations through 7/14 @ 1pm.


94L went through a slight convective downturn over the previous 6-8 hours which likely prevented the disturbance from attaining tropical depression status. However, in the last hour or two a cyclonically curved convective band has developed about 40-50mi away from the center in the northern semicircle of the circulation. As of 1pm the latest position estimate of the center of circulation is at 11.9°N, 42.7°W. Initial motion direction estimate is slightly north of due west, or 285°, around 13kts.


Previous discussion

Another strong disturbance is over the tropical central Atlantic and will likely become the next depression, the third of the year. A center of circulation has become apparent on satellite imagery near 11.3°N, 41.1°W. Convection is beginning to wrap around the southern and eastern portions of this broad circulation center and banding has become apparant in the southwest quadrant of the disturbance. Upper levels are extremely favorable for development with good poleward venting of convection noted on satellite. Expectations are of development into a depression by this afternoon and a tropical storm by tomorrow morning. A general west to west-northwesterly motion of 12-15kts will ensue to then, Cristobal, that will take the center of the storm toward the Lesser Antilles in 84-96 hour timeframe. All eyes thereafter will then turn towards northeastern Caribbean. A weakness extending southward from Bertha may cause a more northwesterly motion after passage of the Lesser Antilles. By day 5 the storm may be near Puerto Rico with eyes set towards the west. Of course this is all speculative upon development of the disturbance. Strength of the storm is always a bit harder to forecast. I anticipate development into a depression by the 11am EDT NHC issuance time of advisories and a tropical storm by 5am EDT tomorrow morning. With little shear to speak of over the next 24-48 hours, a moist environment in the pipeline and warm SST's of 28°C along the projected path, continued steady intensification should ensue. Broader circulation and lower latitude should prevent a rapid burst of intensification but the storm may very well be a hurricane upon approach to the Lesser Antilles. This possible development should be closely monitored by residents of the Caribbean island and anyone planning a trip to the region.


Elsewhere in the tropics


Another disturbance is located several hundred miles to the southwest of the Cape Verde Islands that will likely become the next area of interest. Strong convergence within the ITCZ has sustained strong convection over the previous 24-36 hours. This morning’s QuikSCAT pass also shows many 40-50kt wind barbs both to the north and south of the ITCZ. The system’s low latitude and location within the ITCZ will hinder development initially but it does look impressive on satellite and on QuikSCAT. I wouldn’t be surprised to see another invest slapped on this feature in the near future.


Another tropical wave along 70°W, south of 17°N, is interacting with an upper level low over the central Caribbean causing flare ups of moderate to strong convection. Hostile upper level winds will prevent this from developing in the short-term.


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Regional Forecast


With much of my focus on the tropics and the weather in the Northeast taking a turn for the benign, this will be a short update.

Mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers remain along the East Coast as the cold front moving offshore has slowed its eastward progress considerably. These showers should taper by evening and clouds will slowly decrease from northwest to southeast. Other instability showers may develop with diurnal heatng along the US/Canadian border region and south of Lake Ontario over western New York. Tonight, clearing skies and low humidity will make for great sleeping weather as lows dip into the 50's across the interior, with 60's along the coastal plain and 40's across the higher terrain of northern New York and New England.

Surface high pressure builds over the region Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing clear skies and comforable humidity levels, although humidity will be on the rise on Wednesday. Temperatures will remain near seasonable levels for mid-July with a slight moderation in readings from Tuesday to Wednesday. The surface high pressure slips offshore Thursday as hieghts build aloft. The return flow around the backside of the high will bring an increase in temperatures and humidity to uncomfortable levels. Broad southwesterly flow across the country late this week will continue to feed heat and humidity into the Northeast region, likely bringing about a mid-summer heat wave. Temperatures along the coastal plain should make it into the low to mid 90's while interior sections will top out in the mid to upper 80's with a few 90+ degree readings in the valleys.

The jet stream will ride far to the north, over central Ontario and Quebec. This should keep any shortwaves (and attending precipitation) north of the region, although northern Maine stands a chance at seeing some activity. The remainder of the region looks to stay dry with a capped atmosphere preventing diurnal convection. Indications are that some erosion of this cap may come about by next weekend that could increase the chances for afternoon thunderstorms, but these will be isolated at best. No significant weather systems are forecast over the next 7 days. Welcome to the dog days.





Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar


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Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.



___________________________________________________________





July Daily Weather Statistics


July 1st - 75°F/55°F.....Trace....60%
July 2nd - 80°F/54°F.....0.00"....90%
July 3rd - 79°F/54°F.....0.31"....20%
July 4th - 71°F/63°F.....Trace.....5%
July 5th - 80°F/59°F.....0.00"....40%
July 6th - 81°F/63°F.....0.00"....50%
July 7th - 82°F/66°F.....0.00"....50%
July 8th - 84°F/67°F.....0.00"....60%
July 9th - 79°F/64°F.....0.21"....50%
July 10th - 75°F/57°F....0.00"....80%
July 11th - 79°F/52°F....0.00"....70%
July 12th - 86°F/64°F....0.00"....80%
July 13th - 80°F/65°F....0.72"....20%

Updated: 11:17 AM GMT on July 15, 2008

Permalink

Pleasant Northeast/Bertha update

By: sullivanweather, 6:09 AM GMT on July 09, 2008

Storm reports last 72 hours. Click on map to view individual reports.


storm reports




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___________________________________________________________



Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings

------


Regional Forecast


Synopsis - Issued 7/9 @2:10am


The warm and humid weather will last for one more day as a sharp cold front will usher in a much more comfortable airmass by Thursday. The change of airmass will be marked by rounds of showers and thunderstorms, some of which may be severe Wednesday afternoon and evening. Mainly dry and seasonable weather will continue into Saturday before the next trough brings renewed chances for showers and thunderstorms Sunday and Monday. Building heights will bring a return to drier conditions by the middle of next week along with a warming trend that may build into some big time summer heat by the end of the week.



Near-term - Issued 7/9 @2:10am


Showers and isolated thundershowers over western Pennsylvania will weaken overnight as they move east. Other thunderstorms have formed over Lake Ontario and Ontario Province. These storms should move across the St.Lawrence Valley and northern Adirondacks during the overnight. These storms should maintain themselves over northern Vermont and New Hampshire and move into Maine by daybreak. Additional precipitation may sneak back into western Pennsylvania before daybreak from ongoing convection over the Ohio Valley. Elsewhere mainly partly cloudy skies with areas of patchy fog, especially where storms developed earlier. It will be quite muggy this overnight with temperatures in most regions remaining in the mid 60's to mid 70's.


Short-term - Issued 7/9 @2:10am


An active day is expected on Wednesday. The big question will be how much does convective debris limit instability? Regardless of how much cloud cover moves over the region, forcing provided by the pre-frontal trough/cold front combo moving into the tropical airmass should initiate showers and thunderstorms. CAPE values still manage to climb to 800-1,500 J/kg from north to south. The deep tropical moisture over the Northeast (precipitable water values 150-200% of normal) will make storms capable of producing blinding downpours that could lead to urban/flash flooding. Storms will have a faster forward motion than those of the previous few days, however, training and back-building of cells could lead to flooding problems. Storms should concentrate along two areas. The first, a MCV, currently moving into the Niagara Frontier, will make it to east-central New York/western New England by peak heating and work in tandem with a pre-frontal/lee-side trough to produce multi-cellular clusters of storms that may organize into bowing line segments. Upper level winds here will be highest throughout the region, lying in the entrance region of a 100kt jet streak, and the area will lie closest to the best dynamics with this system passing by to the northwest of the region through southern Ontario and Quebec. Wind shear will be on the order of 25-35kts which should sustain storms into the evening across the remainder of New England. A few of these storms should contain severe wind gusts of up to 60mph. The second area of storms will develop from a MCV currently moving into western Ohio. This feature will move across the I-80 corridor Wednesday afternoon producing another area of multi-cellular clusters of storms. Upper levels winds here aren’t as strong and wind shear is generally under 25kts. However, where kinematics lack, thermodynamics will make up for, so severe potential here is just as great, especially if more sun makes an appearance. Between these two areas other scattered convection will fire up. Temperatures should climb into the 80’s across most of the region with the exception being across northern New England where ongoing morning convection will likely give temperatures little time to recover out of the 70’s. Winds will be out of the south to southwest at 5-15mph.

The cold front will move through the region Wednesday evening into the overnight. Ongoing convection will exist from the eastern half of Pennsylvania to southern New England along and ahead of the front as it crosses the region. Behind the front clearing skies and a much more comfortable airmass will move into the region on a 5-10mph westerly breeze.

A few lingering showers may skirt along the coastal regions of southern New Jersey, southeastern Massachusetts, Rhode Island and coastal Maine during the early morning hours. These should be of little consequence as they will leave behind mostly sunny skies for the remainder of the day. The rest of the Northeast will see those sunny skies all day long with much lower humidity levels than those of Wednesday. Highs will range from the 70’s across most of the interior to the 80’s along the coastal plain and interior valleys.


Mid-term - Issued 7/9 @2:10am



The Thursday night through Saturday night period will feature mainly dry conditions. An outside chance of a few showers exists Friday afternoon/evening along the US-Canaidan border. Daytime high temperatures will range from near normal to start the period ending slightly above normal by Saturday. Overnight lows will dip below normal readings with ideal summer-time radiational cooling expected Thursday and Friday nights. Increasing humidity and clouds will bring overnight temperatures back to normal levels by Saturday night.


Long-term coming soon!

_________________________________________________________


Tropical Update





July 12th update


Just a couple quick comments on Bertha today for time is pressed.


Category 1 Hurricane Bertha is located at 29.7°N, 62.5°W as per the 5am EDT NHC advisory. The storm is moving towards the north-northwest, or 340°, at 9mph. Maximum sustained winds are to 90mph and the barometric pressure is 976mb.


Bertha's inner core/eyewall has completely collapsed over the previous 24 hours and a large eye of some 50-60 miles in diameter has now become more defined. A ring of deep convection surrounds this new, large eye. Bertha has been battling dry air and an eyewall replacement cycle causing her to become ragged in appearance. With this process now over some strengthening may occur and Bertha might once again become a category two storm over the next 24-36 hours. However, being surrounding by a marginal environment for intensification (light to moderate bouts of wind shear, dry air intrusions, 27°C SST's) status quo will be the most likely near-term future for Bertha. The last 24-36 hours of Bertha's life has been very interesting. The outer eyewall never constricted during it's ERC which essentially choked off the inner core of the storm and put the now 'outer' core of the storm in a position more susceptible to dry air intrusion. Less banding between the core of the storm (being as expansive as it is) and the dry surroundings means that dry air is not being mixed out through convection before being drawn into the circulation center. Shear is also increasing to the storms NE as an upper low drifts towards it from that direction, tightening the upper level pressure gradient, creating a mini jet streak.

Bertha's track will be somewhat of an enigma as it gets squeezed between an upper low approaching from the northeast and confluent flow ahead of an approaching, but lifting trough from the west. This should force Bertha slowly northward, taking it periously close to the island of Bermuda. Given Bertha's new larger structure, there's a chance Bermuda may feel more than fringe impacts from Bertha. Rest of the track forecast remains the same. A much deeper trough will move off the East Coast on Monday causing a highly meridional pattern over the western Atlantic. Large positive geopotential height anomalies develop over the north Atlantic that may block a recurvature with Bertha causing her to take a more northward motion towards Atlantic Canada.



Elsewhere in the tropics, an area of disturbed weather is in the central Atlantic along the ITCZ in conjunction with a tropical wave whose axis is along 45°W south of 15°N. Turning in the low/mid level cloud field is noted along with recent flare ups of deep convection, likely diurnally influenced. Being embedded in the ITCZ chances for further development into a tropical depression are low but it's worth keeping an eye on due to it's precarious position.

Further east a strong easterly wave is due to emerge off the coast of Africa in 30-42 hours time. A couple global models are hinting at development with this feature. As Bertha has shown, development in the eastern Atlantic is not impossible this early in this particular season. Looks like a very early, and potentially very active, start to the Cape Verde season this year.


July 10th discussion


Category 1 Hurricane Bertha is located at 26.5°N, 60.2°W as per the 11am EDT NHC advisory. The storm is moving towards the northwest, or 315°, at 9mph. Maximum sustained winds are down to 90mph and the barometric pressure has risen to 977mb. Outflow is excellent in the northern quadrant, good in the western quadrant and fair in the southern and eastern quadrants. Bertha is now a mature sub-tropical hurricane, having lost her feeder bands from the deep tropics. Convective inertia of flare-ups within the CDO is causing the eye of the storm to wobble erratically on its overall northwesterly course.


Bertha should continue to move on a northwest to north-northwestward motion at a slow rate of speed over the next 24-48 hours. Bertha is positioned between an upper level low to the cyclones WNW and a digging upper trough to the cyclones ENE. A blocking high is to the storms north that should deflect the trough moving into the western Atlantic away from Bertha. As the trough lifts out and ridging builds once again to the north of Bertha the storm may bend back towards the west, threatening Bermuda. At this time I still only expect fringe effects of Bertha to affect Bermuda. Perhaps a feeder band or two bringing some squally weather as well as large swells from the storm. But the core of Bertha should pass safely to the east of the island. A much deeper trough will move off the East Coast on Monday causing a highly meridional pattern over the western Atlantic. Large positive geopotential height anomalies develop over the north Atlantic that may block a recurvature with Bertha causing her to take a more northward motion towards Atlantic Canada.


Small fluctuations in intensity are likely over the next 2-3 days due to small changes in the surrounding environment (dry air intrusions, changes in wind shear) and Bertha should remain a strong category one to strong category 2 storm. There after wind shear will increase from the south as the trough moving off the East Coast approaches the cyclone. However, moving with the shear and being a weaker/shallower system, Bertha may glide under the strongest shear aloft and maintain hurricane status over the next five days. Thereafter the storm will begin to encounter cooler waters and increasing hostile winds that should weaken her to a tropical storm.




July 9th discussion

The center of Hurricane Bertha was located at 24.2°N, 57.5°W @11am EDT as per NHC advisory. Bertha has been moving on a northwesterly course, or 300° at 12mph. Maximum sustained winds are near 75mph with higher gusts. Estimated minimum pressure has risen to 987mb.


Bertha has shown signs of new life this morning as a ragged eye has become apparent on visible satellite imagery located in the center of the CDO. The shear has relaxed some over the last 6-12 hours after tearing apart the structure of the storm yesterday. Bertha has also taken a westerly bend in her track over the previous 6 hours, as the trough to her north slowly lifts and she begins to feel the effects of the high to her northwest. Being a compact system, with a well-defined inner structure shown on microwave imagery late Sunday afternoon, Bertha was able to quickly take advantage of the then favorable environment, allowing her to reach major hurricane status from a 55kt tropical storm in only 18 hours. However, small systems are less able to fight off any hostility and Bertha quickly weakening upon encountering higher wind shear and a pocket of drier air. A large blow up of convection in her far northeast quadrant also disrupted the inflow into Bertha, causing the storm to become asymmetrical. Given the new found favorable conditions, it wouldn't be shocking if Bertha once again attained category 2 status and maintained this strength as it turns north.


A shortwave trough moving off the East Coast on Wednesday should erode the western periphery of the Bermuda high to allow Bertha to take a more northward turn by Thursday night. Bertha may then turn northeast at a slow rate of speed before stalling or meandering as the trough moving off the coast doesn't appear to pick Bertha up and send her on her way at this time. There's a chance that the cyclone may even perform an anti-cyclonic loop back west for a short time before a stronger trough moving off the coast Monday induces recurvature. There's still the outside chance that Bermuda will see some fringe effects from Bertha but the core of the cyclone should pass by at a safe distance to the east. Once caught in the westerlies extra-tropical transition will occur as it races north towards the Davis Strait.

__________________________________________________________



Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar


___________________________________________________________

Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.



___________________________________________________________





July Daily Weather Statistics


July 1st - 75°F/55°F.....Trace....60%
July 2nd - 80°F/54°F.....0.00"....90%
July 3rd - 79°F/54°F.....0.31"....20%
July 4th - 71°F/63°F.....Trace.....5%
July 5th - 80°F/59°F.....0.00"....40%
July 6th - 81°F/63°F.....0.00"....50%
July 7th - 82°F/66°F.....0.00"....50%
July 8th - 84°F/67°F.....0.00"....60%
July 9th - 79°F/64°F.....0.21"....50%
July 10th - 75°F/57°F....0.00"....80%
July 11th - 79°F/52°F....0.00"....70%

Updated: 9:52 AM GMT on July 12, 2008

Permalink

Warm and humid/Eye on Bertha

By: sullivanweather, 4:00 PM GMT on July 06, 2008

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Current watches, warnings and advisories.


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------


Regional Forecast


Synopsis - Issued 7/6 - 12:00pm


A stationary front draped across the southern half of the region will gradually wash out over the next 24 hours. In doing so, it will become increasingly warm and humid across the Northeast the next several days as southwesterly flow around the building Bermuda high offshore pumps a soupy airmass into the region. A weakness in the atmosphere will move into the region from the Ohio Valley during this timeframe, providing broad weak ascent ahead of this feature and a more favorable upper environment for diurnal convection. The next significant trough approaches Wednesday and moves offshore Thursday, bringing another round of showers and thunderstorms. The evolution of this trough will have to be closely monitored for its eventual impact on Bertha churning out in the Atlantic. The NHC forecasts Bertha to be a minimal hurricane several hundred miles southwest of Bermuda late Thursday night when the trough reaches its longitude. High pressure builds back over the East Coast Friday into next weekend. If Thursday's trough fails to pick-up Bertha and re-curve the cyclone out to sea it could meander off the coast during the several days that follow. The trough that should ultimately steer Bertha away from the East Coast moves through the region late next weekend into the beginning of the following week. Still a long ways out and much can change between now and then. I would advise all residents living along the coast to keep a close eye on the evolution of Bertha as it does pose a slight long-term threat.



Short-term - Issued 7/6 - 12:00am



A quasi-stationary frontal boundary that settled across the southern half of the region on Thursday is in the process of slowly washing out. However, enough low-level convergence along this boundary remains to spark off a few scattered showers and thunderstorms, given the moderately unstable airmass in place. Winds aloft are light (generally under 20kts below 500mb) so any storms that do develop will have a very slow movement. Precipitable water values of 150-200% of normal reside along and to the south of the boundary so any storms that do develop will have the capability of producing extremely heavy downpours and flash flooding due to the slow movement of the storms. Shear is very weak, so pulse thunderstorms are likely with no organization of storms to speak of and the only chances for severe weather coming in the form of wet microbursts. High temperatures will range from the 70's across the northern interior and higher terrain to the 80's along the southern interior and coastal plain.

Convection dies after dusk with patchy fog/stratus formation given the highly moist airmass in place. Otherwise expect partly cloudy skies and temperatures falling back into the 70's along the coast/60's to near 70 across the interior.

Front becomes more diffuse Monday, if not completely washing out, as light broad southwesterly flow continues to pump a tropical airmass into the region. A weak upper disturbance will move into the Northeast, aiding in instability but the lack of synoptic low level forcing with the loss of the front will leave triggering mechanisms for storms up to terrain, differential heating and sea-breeze boundaries. Storms will be slow movers again, capable of heavy downpours and urban/flash flooding, expanding north with their coverage as those regions come under the influence of the increasingly humid airmass. Temperatures will rise into the 80's along the coastal plain and much of the interior with 70's limited to the higher terrain. Convection wanes after sunset again Monday night, but will last longer into the night than tonight with the close proximity of the 500mb trough. Patchy fog/stratus will develop once again. It will remain muggy with temperatures only falling into the mid 70's along the southern coastal plain/low 70's north. Over the interior temperatures will fall into the 60's to near 70.


Mid-term - Issued 7/6 - 1:00pm


Tuesday should be the warmest, most oppressive day of the week with more scattered afternoon convection. 850mb temperatures climb to 16-18°C and most locations will warm into the 80's. An MCS will move north of the region through central Ontario and Quebec, but will have to be watched in northern Maine as they may get clipped by the tail end of this feature late afternoon/early evening. A stronger trough enters the Northeast on Wednesday, bringing the chance for a more widespread convective event. Early look would indicate that northern New York into New England stands the best chance at seeing organized convection and/or severe weather with more scattered activity south. The trough clears the coast by Thursday morning leaving fair weather and lower humidity in its wake. The amplitude of the trough as it clears the coast will be a key factor in the evolution of the steering currents across the Western Atlantic as Bertha approaches from the tropics. Currently, the trough doesn't appear to break through the ridge axis that extends from Bermuda to the Southeast coast. With this being the case, a northwesterly turn in the cyclone is anticipated north of Puerto Rico but not a complete recurvature. This will have implications on the long term forecast.



Long-term - Issued 7/6 - 1:00pm


Building heights Friday and Saturday with dry weather expected and increasing heat/humidity. A rather significant trough will move into the Northeast late next weekend into the following Monday. At this time, this trough, and attending cold front, looks strong enough to deliver a bout of severe weather to the region and should also steer Bertha away from the East Coast, possibly after a close call. Temperatures will begin the period near normal and should rise to above normal readings by the weekend.



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Tropical Update







Tropical Storm Bertha has continued to improve in satellite presentation since crossing the 26°C isotherm earlier this morning and now appears to be getting her act together. Banding features are becoming better defined this afternoon and strong convection has persisted, unlike previous flare-up's, around the center of circulation, primarily on the western semi-circle. 11am National Hurricane Center advisory puts Bertha at 17.4°N, 45.1°W moving westward, on a 280° heading, at 18kts. Maximum sustained winds were 50mph, with higher gusts.

Bertha is moving into an environment conducive for continued steady intensification and should become a hurricane by tomorrow evening. Shear is forecast to remain below 15kts over the next 48 hours and should remain below 20kts over the next 72 hours. Bertha will also be moving into an increasingly moist environment once north of Puerto Rico. With SST's in that region upwards of 28°C and oceanic heat content of 30-45kJ/cm², low shear and a moist environment, it's not entirely impossible for Bertha to attain major hurricane status.

A trough will move off the Eastern Seaboard on Wednesday, creating a weakness in the ridge to the north of Bertha that will cause the system to take a turn towards the northwest or north-northwest and slow its forward movement. A narrowing ridge axis to the north of the cyclone should prevent this system from making a complete recurvature as the trough moving off the coast should remain shallow and progressive enough to leave Bertha behind to meander. Regardless of the trough's bearing on Bertha's track, it will increase the wind shear over the system likely weakening it. Ridging builds along the East Coast behind the trough that may allow Bertha to resume a more westerly track but a much stronger trough progged to move off the East Coast late next weekend should finally turn the storm out to sea. Much can change between now and next week but at this time I wouldn't expect Bertha to have any direct impact on the US East Coast. Her main effects felt here should be limited to high surf and the risk for rip currents, which should arrive along the Southeast Coast late Thursday or early Friday.



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Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar


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Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.



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July Daily Weather Statistics


July 1st - 75°F/55°F.....Trace....60%
July 2nd - 80°F/54°F.....0.00"....90%
July 3rd - 79°F/54°F.....0.31"....20%
July 4th - 71°F/63°F.....Trace.....5%
July 5th - 80°F/59°F.....0.00"....40%

Updated: 5:12 PM GMT on July 07, 2008

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Severe storms possible today

By: sullivanweather, 1:35 PM GMT on July 03, 2008

Storm reports last 72 hours. Click on map to view individual reports.


storm reports




Northern New England storm reports


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Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings

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Regional Forecast


Synopsis - Issued 7/3 - 9:35am


A cold front will sag through the Northeast today bringing showers and thunderstorms to the region, some of which may be severe. This frontal boundary will stall along the Mason-Dixon line Friday, then slowly return northward as a warm front during the holiday weekend bringing chances for more showers and thunderstorms, especially across the southern half of the region. Weak ridging builds in from the west Monday and early Tuesday as much of the concentrated showers/storms move into New England with isolated diurnal activity elsewhere. Another trough approaches for Tuesday night and Wednesday bringing more widespread precipitation once again.



Short-term - Issued 7/3 - 9:35am



Clouds and showers along and ahead of a cold front extends over much of the northwestern half of the Northeast this morning, with mainly clear skies to the southeast. At the time of this writing, thicker cloud cover lines up from Altoona, PA to Glens Falls, NY to Caribou, ME. To the south and east of this line enough insolation will occur to modestly destabilize the atmosphere. Temperatures here should warm into the 80's by afternoon but dewpoints will only be in the upper 50's, rising into the lower 60's with moisture pooling ahead of the front. By afternoon mlCAPE rises to 600-1,200 J/kg with muCAPE values approaching 1,500J/kg. Mid-level lapse rates are a paltry 6C/km so the thermodynamic set-up for severe weather is marginal, at best. The best dynamics ride by to the northwest into Canada as well, however, the wind field aloft is still strong. Unidirectional flow from the southwest with a 25-35kt low-level jet, increasing to 40-50kt @700mb and 50-65kt @500mb. Storms will be capable of severe wind gusts as convection mixes these wind down to the surface. Bulk shear of from south to north 30-40kts will organize storms into bowing line segments. Triggers for convection will be forcing along the frontal boundary, a MCV moving out of the Ohio Valley. In fact, a more organized line of convection may form ahead of this MCV as it moves through Pennsylvania this afternoon. To the north, more stratiform precipitation should fall, although there could be an embedded thundershower, before the front clears the region and drier air advects south from Canada. With clouds and precipitation, temperatures here shouldn't rise much from this mornings temperatures as most locales remain in the mid 60's to lower 70's.

Convection continues into this evening, but will be in a weakening phase. Precipitation should continue throughout the overnight from eastern Pennsylvania into southern New England as showers and a few embedded thundershowers. Otherwise expect clearing skies from the north as dry air continues to advance south behind the front. Temperatures will fall back into the 40's over the higher terrain of northern New York and New England! Elsewhere across the interior temperatures will settle into the 50's and 60's from north to south with temperatures holding into the 70's along the southern coastal plain.

Rest of forecast to come later


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Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar


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Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.



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June Daily Weather Statistics


June 1st - 71°F/51°F.....0.00"....30%
June 2nd - 73°F/50°F.....0.00"....70%
June 3rd - 77°F/46°F.....0.05"....70%
June 4th - 66°F/54°F.....0.28".....5%
June 5th - 69°F/56°F.....0.00"....25%
June 6th - 69°F/55°F.....0.16"....10%
June 7th - 88°F/63°F.....Trace....60%
June 8th - 85°F/63°F.....0.34"....50%
June 9th - 94°F/65°F.....0.00"....95%
June 10th - 94°F/67°F....0.98"....70%
June 11th - 78°F/59°F....Trace....90%
June 12th - 78°F/55°F....0.00"...100%
June 13th - 83°F/51°F....0.00"....95%
June 14th - 84°F/61°F....0.35"....40%
June 15th - 80°F/64°F....0.03"....70%
June 16th - 81°F/57°F....0.65"....50%
June 17th - 66°F/53°F....0.34"....20%
June 18th - 59°F/46°F....0.23"....10%
June 19th - 66°F/45°F....0.03"....30%
June 20th - 69°F/48°F....0.14"....30%
June 21st - 79°F/47°F....Trace....70%
June 22nd - 73°F/55°F....0.67"....50%
June 23rd - 77°F/57°F....0.46"....60%
June 24th - 73°F/57°F....0.12"....30%
June 25th - 78°F/50°F....0.00"....80%
June 26th - 75°F/59°F....0.08"....20%
June 27th - 75°F/61°F....0.06"....40%
June 28th - 84°F/61°F....0.13"....50%
June 29th - 78°F/63°F....0.72"....40%
June 30th - 75°F/59°F....0.03"....70%




July Daily Weather Statistics


July 1st - 75°F/55°F.....Trace....60%
July 2nd - 80°F/54°F.....0.00"....90%

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Upper trough persists

By: sullivanweather, 9:21 AM GMT on July 01, 2008

Storm reports last 72 hours. Click on map to view individual reports.


storm reports




Northern New England storm reports


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Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings

------


Regional Forecast


Synopsis - Issued 7/1 - 5:25am


An upper trough will slowly lift through the Northeast and fill over the next couple days. Showers and thunderstorms have occurred along the trough axis with this feature each afternoon and should continue today. Building heights on Wednesday will bring sunnier skies and warmer temperatures over the western half of the region with showers confined to New England. The next upper trough in this active pattern, which has lasted several weeks now, will dig down into the Great Lakes on Thursday, sending a cold front towards the region. Another round of showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front, a few of which may be severe. The front will settle south and stall somewhere between central Pennsylvania and the Mason-Dixon line by Friday before slowly lifting back northwards this weekend. Several disturbances will ripple along the boundary during this timeframe sparking rounds of convection making for a stormy holiday weekend across the southern half of the region. Finally, a northern stream trough will swing by on Sunday, extending convection chances into northern New York and New England. However, this feature should be progressive, sweeping offshore and taking the stalled frontal boundary with it. Only one day to dry out on Monday before another trough brings renewed chances for showers and storms by next Tuesday and Wednesday.



Short-term - Issued 7/1 - 5:25am

Today's weather graphic






An area of vorticity along an upper trough axis is in the process of shearing out. Regardless, it has continued to keep showers going over the western Finger Lakes region of New York and north-central Pennsylvania. These showers will wane after sunrise and drift eastwards. The morning will begin with partly to mostly sunny skies east of the upper trough axis with mostly cloudy skies under this feature with scattered showers. Areas of patchy fog will be found in the river valleys and other sheltered valleys, especially if rain fell the prior day. Eventually, strong late June sun will burn off most low clouds and modestly destabilize the atmosphere. Temperatures climb into the upper 70's with dewpoints in the upper 50's bringing surface based CAPE values to 500-800J/kg ahead of the trough axis from eastern Pennsylvania northeastwards into western New England. Mid-level lapse rates increase as cold pool associated with the trough moves overhead and the region lies under a 80-100kt 300mb jet streak. Showers and thunderstorms will re-develop along and ahead of the trough axis. Dry air above 700mb and lowered freezing levels will allow for small hail within some of the stronger cells along with some gusty winds, although most storms will remain below severe limits with weak flow below 700mb (<25kts). These lighter winds will allow for mainly pulse type thunderstorms or propagating cells on a 30-120 degree heading. A small window during the mid to late afternoon for severe weather exists over western Massachusetts and Connecticut. Most of the day spent with partly sunny skies will bring muCAPE values to 1,200J/kg with winds @500mb of ~40kts as storms move into the region. A few severe wind gusts may result, as well as penny to nickel-sized hail. Dry air moving into the region behind the trough will end showers from west to east across eastern Pennsylvania and New York before most activity winds down after sunset.

Clear skies and light winds will allow for decent summer-time radiational cooling to the west of the trough axis. Patchy fog will develop in river and sheltered valleys. Eastwards to New England under the trough axis, partly to mostly cloudy skies will exist with isolated showers. Lows tonight will fall into the 50's across much of the interior with 40's possible across the higher terrain. Along the coastal plain temperatures will likely remain in the 60's.

Trough axis will move offshore most of the Northeast coast on Wednesday, Maine being the exception, with building heights moving into from the west. Scattered showers and thundershowers will develop over Maine as enough convergence within the trough axis and cold pool aloft move overhead. Otherwise, the rest of the region will see mostly sunny skies with temperatures in the upper 70's to mid 80's. Showers may cool temperatures into the 60's across Maine.

More dry weather expected Wednesday night with mainly clear skies and light winds. A great night for stargazing with comfortable temperatures in the 50's and 60's.



Rest of forecast to come later


__________________________________________________________



Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar


___________________________________________________________

Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.



___________________________________________________________




June Daily Weather Statistics


June 1st - 71°F/51°F.....0.00"....30%
June 2nd - 73°F/50°F.....0.00"....70%
June 3rd - 77°F/46°F.....0.05"....70%
June 4th - 66°F/54°F.....0.28".....5%
June 5th - 69°F/56°F.....0.00"....25%
June 6th - 69°F/55°F.....0.16"....10%
June 7th - 88°F/63°F.....Trace....60%
June 8th - 85°F/63°F.....0.34"....50%
June 9th - 94°F/65°F.....0.00"....95%
June 10th - 94°F/67°F....0.98"....70%
June 11th - 78°F/59°F....Trace....90%
June 12th - 78°F/55°F....0.00"...100%
June 13th - 83°F/51°F....0.00"....95%
June 14th - 84°F/61°F....0.35"....40%
June 15th - 80°F/64°F....0.03"....70%
June 16th - 81°F/57°F....0.65"....50%
June 17th - 66°F/53°F....0.34"....20%
June 18th - 59°F/46°F....0.23"....10%
June 19th - 66°F/45°F....0.03"....30%
June 20th - 69°F/48°F....0.14"....30%
June 21st - 79°F/47°F....Trace....70%
June 22nd - 73°F/55°F....0.67"....50%
June 23rd - 77°F/57°F....0.46"....60%
June 24th - 73°F/57°F....0.12"....30%
June 25th - 78°F/50°F....0.00"....80%
June 26th - 75°F/59°F....0.08"....20%
June 27th - 75°F/61°F....0.06"....40%
June 28th - 84°F/61°F....0.13"....50%
June 29th - 78°F/63°F....0.72"....40%
June 30th - 75°F/59°F....0.03"....70%

Updated: 9:49 AM GMT on July 01, 2008

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About sullivanweather

Thomas is an avid weather enthusiast, landscaper and organic gardener. This blog is dedicated to Northeast and tropical weather forecasting. Enjoy!

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