Northeast Weather Blog

Severe possibilities.

By: sullivanweather, 1:14 PM GMT on June 29, 2008

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Regional Forecast



Clouds cover a good portion of the Northeast this morning with scattered showers and thundershowers across New Hampshire and western Maine. Another area of mainly light showers extends from central Pennsylvania northeastwards into south-central New York then up towards the southern Adirondacks. The sunshine makes an appearance along the southern coastal plain where temperatures are rising fast into the 80's and may even reach 90 by afternoon.

The big question for today is how much will cloud cover limit instability for thunderstorm development. Although clouds will be a negative factor for thunderstorm development, falling heights and temperatures aloft may make for the clouds. Winds aloft will strengthen as the day progresses as a 100kt jet streak tracks across the Northeast. Winds also increase at low and mid-levels to 30 and 50kts, respectively. This will put bulk shear values at or above 40kts for a good portion of the region. Chances are there for any thunderstorms that do develop to organize into line segments and perhaps a longer line of squalls capable of producing damaging wind of over 60mph. Freezing levels are rather high (above 12,000') and there's not much dry air in the mid-levels, so hail will be limited to the strongest cells/updrafts. However, precipitable water values rise to nearly 2" across the southern portion of the region and rise to 1.5" across the north. With frontal orientation beginning to line up with the unidirectional flow aloft the potential exists for training of cells that may produce extremely heavy amounts of rain leading to flash flooding. Strength of low level jet and backing flow ahead of the trough may promote the development of mesocyclones capable of producing an isolated tornado. The best chance for this would be along the southern coastal plain, ahead of the pre-frontal trough. The sun is shining in these areas right now, so there's a better chance for greater instability here. Temperatures will climb into the 80's for most locales with 70's likely in the higher terrain. Winds will be from the south at 10-25mph ahead of the front, perhaps stronger along the coast. This will pile water up along south facing beaches making for minor coastal flooding at time of high tide and the risk of rip currents.

Convection wanes tonight with the loss of daytime heating, however, deep moisture will remain over the region with enough disturbances rotating around the upper low moving into the area to keep the threat for showers going throughout the night. Temperatures will fall back into the 70's along the coastal plain with 60's across the interior.





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Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar


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Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.



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June Daily Weather Statistics


June 1st - 71°F/51°F.....0.00"....30%
June 2nd - 73°F/50°F.....0.00"....70%
June 3rd - 77°F/46°F.....0.05"....70%
June 4th - 66°F/54°F.....0.28".....5%
June 5th - 69°F/56°F.....0.00"....25%
June 6th - 69°F/55°F.....0.16"....10%
June 7th - 88°F/63°F.....Trace....60%
June 8th - 85°F/63°F.....0.34"....50%
June 9th - 94°F/65°F.....0.00"....95%
June 10th - 94°F/67°F....0.98"....70%
June 11th - 78°F/59°F....Trace....90%
June 12th - 78°F/55°F....0.00"...100%
June 13th - 83°F/51°F....0.00"....95%
June 14th - 84°F/61°F....0.35"....40%
June 15th - 80°F/64°F....0.03"....70%
June 16th - 81°F/57°F....0.65"....50%
June 17th - 66°F/53°F....0.34"....20%
June 18th - 59°F/46°F....0.23"....10%
June 19th - 66°F/45°F....0.03"....30%
June 20th - 69°F/48°F....0.14"....30%
June 21st - 79°F/47°F....Trace....70%
June 22nd - 73°F/55°F....0.67"....50%
June 23rd - 77°F/57°F....0.46"....60%
June 24th - 73°F/57°F....0.12"....30%
June 25th - 78°F/50°F....0.00"....80%
June 26th - 75°F/59°F....0.08"....20%
June 27th - 75°F/61°F....0.06"....40%
June 28th - 84°F/61°F....0.13"....50%
June 29th - 78°F/63°F....0.72"....40%

Updated: 2:35 PM GMT on June 30, 2008

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The beat goes on...

By: sullivanweather, 11:55 AM GMT on June 27, 2008

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Regional Forecast




Light showers are widely scattered across Pennsylvania early this Friday morning while most locales elsewhere across the Northeast see a mostly cloudy start. Severe possibilities today are from central Pennsylvania and south-central New York eastward to southern New England as a MCV moves through this region. Other thunderstorms (a few severe as well) can be expected along a weak backdoor frontal boundary that's slowly pushing southwards from northern New England. Despite the clouds, enough sun will manage to break through to warm surface temperatures from east-central Pennsylvania to southern New England into the mid to upper 80's and a few possible 90 degree readings where cloud cover is sparse along the southern coastal plain. Surface dewpoints will rise into the mid 60's to low 70's, which pushes surface based CAPE values to 1,500-2,500J/kg. Winds aloft aren't too impressive, to say the least. For the most part <20kts below 700mb rising to 30kts @ 500mb. However, a few models are showing a 40kt wind maxima moving across Massachusetts early to mid afternoon, which could provide a strong enough updraft in this region the possibility of producing severe wind gusts. Other localized severe wind gusts from wet microbursts will result further west where winds aloft aren't as supportive for a more widespread event. Precipitable water values rise from 1.5-2" so flash flooding will be a concern as well in slower moving cells and where training of cells occurs. Activity winds down after dusk with loss of heating and MCV moving offshore.

North of the convection to the Great Lake plains, along the US-Canadian border and on into Maine, it will be a rather pleasant day. An isolated cell may pop across the higher terrain of Vermont, New Hampshire, into south-central Maine, but much of the day will be spent under partly cloudy skies. Dewpoints here will be several degrees lower as well as temperatures rise into the upper 70's to mid 80's.

Backdoor front stalls during the overnight and may provide enough convergence in this soupy airmass to generate a few showers. Elsewhere expect partly cloudy skies with fog development as winds remain light and ground likely wet from recent rainfall. Lows fall into the 70's along the coastal plain with 60's for much of the interior. Only the highest terrain of northern New England will see overnight lows fall below 60.


UPDATE!!

Just a fast update for today (Sat 28th)...


A shortwave disturbance has spawned an MCS during the overnight which has moved into the Great Lakes region this morning. Most of the activity has remained over the lakes and on north into Canada but several locales along the lake shores in New York have received a brief period of showers and thunderstorms. This MCS will weaken into thundershowers some over the next couple hours as it moves northeastwards, eventually re-entering New York State along the St.Lawrence River Valley and northern Adirondacks by which time enough heating will have occurred to allow for redevelopment of convection as this feature moves along the US-Canadian border. Thunderstorm chances today look better than they did yesterday across Pennsylvania and New York as well. The passage of a secondary shortwave during the peak heating depicted by the 09Z RUC/06Z WRF should provide the trigger for semi-organized convection. Winds aloft are light but unidirectional, so expect multi-cell clusters and perhaps a few line segments of storms to progress east around 15-25kts. Despite some warming in the mid-levels, varying levels of sunshine (as opposed to very little yesterday) will allow for much warmer skin temperatures. Once again, heavy rain and gusty winds via wet microbursts will be the main threats today. Other isolated showers will pop with afternoon heating just about anywhere given the warm humid airmass. Likely areas will be across the interior adjacent to the higher terrain where topography will aid in convective development.

Another area of interest will develop by early evening as a potentially strong MCS now taking shape in the Ohio Valley moves into western Pennsylvania. This feature may bring quite a few severe wind gusts to this region. The next question that remains with this system is how long into the night will it hold together. Showers and thunderstorms are a good possibility into the overnight across central Pennsylvania and south-central New York.



Backdoor front remains stalled over New England on Saturday as all points south and west sweats it out. 850mb temps climb above 18°C for a good portion of this area under hazy partly cloudy skies pushing surface temps up into the mid 80's to low 90's. High dewpoints in the upper 60's will make it quite uncomfortable. Once again, CAPE values approach the 1,500-2,000 J/kg range, however, there will be more of a cap in place and winds aloft will be lighter than those of today. Slow-moving, topography aided pulse thunderstorms will result, mainly across the interior with the coastal plain perhaps seeing an isolated thunderstorm or two that move down from the mountains or fire up along any sea-breeze boundary. With highly moist airmass still in place these thunderstorms will likely produce blinding downpours and the ability to create flash/urban flooding. Convection winds down after sunset with partly skies remaining. Patchy fog will be an issue once again, especially where storms develop. Lows will remain in the 70's along the coastal plain with mid to upper 60's across the interior.

North of the backdoor frontal boundary, much of the day Saturday will be spent partly cloudy. However, late in the day this front may start to creep back north as a warm front and may set off a few showers and storms. This evening into the overnight MCS activity may track across this region via Quebec. High's here will likely climb into the upper 70's to low 80's. Lows will fall back into the 60's.

More on Sunday's severe possibilities later...





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Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar


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Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.



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June Daily Weather Statistics


June 1st - 71°F/51°F.....0.00"....30%
June 2nd - 73°F/50°F.....0.00"....70%
June 3rd - 77°F/46°F.....0.05"....70%
June 4th - 66°F/54°F.....0.28".....5%
June 5th - 69°F/56°F.....0.00"....25%
June 6th - 69°F/55°F.....0.16"....10%
June 7th - 88°F/63°F.....Trace....60%
June 8th - 85°F/63°F.....0.34"....50%
June 9th - 94°F/65°F.....0.00"....95%
June 10th - 94°F/67°F....0.98"....70%
June 11th - 78°F/59°F....Trace....90%
June 12th - 78°F/55°F....0.00"...100%
June 13th - 83°F/51°F....0.00"....95%
June 14th - 84°F/61°F....0.35"....40%
June 15th - 80°F/64°F....0.03"....70%
June 16th - 81°F/57°F....0.65"....50%
June 17th - 66°F/53°F....0.34"....20%
June 18th - 59°F/46°F....0.23"....10%
June 19th - 66°F/45°F....0.03"....30%
June 20th - 69°F/48°F....0.14"....30%
June 21st - 79°F/47°F....Trace....70%
June 22nd - 73°F/55°F....0.67"....50%
June 23rd - 77°F/57°F....0.46"....60%
June 24th - 73°F/57°F....0.12"....30%
June 25th - 78°F/50°F....0.00"....80%
June 26th - 75°F/59°F....0.08"....20%


Updated: 3:03 PM GMT on June 28, 2008

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Widely scattered storms today/drier tomorrow

By: sullivanweather, 11:00 AM GMT on June 24, 2008

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Regional Forecast



Synopsis - Issued 6/24 - 7:00am


An upper trough axis will swing through the Northeast today bringing diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms with the greatest concentration over southern New England. Ridging in the lower and middle layers of the atmosphere builds over the region on Wednesday, bringing fair weather for a change. Precipitation chances return by Thursday as an active jet stream along the US-Canadian border sends a mid-level shortwave and attending surface trough into the region. Diurnal convection will develop Friday afternoon with warmer, more humid airmass in place. By this weekend the jet will buckle some in response to a stronger disturbance moving down from Canada. As this system approaches the coverage of showers and thunderstorms will increase. By the start of next week this system becomes a vertically stacked low midway between the Great Lakes and Hudson Bay, keeping the Northeast under the influence of its trough with a continuation of scattered, mainly diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms.



Short-term - Issued 6/24 - 7:00am



Light, widely scattered showers are moving northeastwards through southeastern New York into southern New England and on up the coast early this morning. These will diminish by mid-morning leaving partly to mostly cloudy skies in their wake. Further north and west, clouds will have less coverage with a mostly sunny start to the day. With diurnal heating the lower levels of the atmosphere will destabilize in combination with the cold pool aloft (mid-level lapse rates ~7C/km) associated with the upper trough axis moving overhead. Convective temperatures will be reached late in the morning promoting the development of cumulus clouds and eventually showers and thunderstorms. Convection will be aided by orographic lift over the higher terrain as there's not much convergence in the lower levels. After developing over the higher terrain they will move southeastwards into the coastal plain of southern New York and New England. Dry air exists over 700mb for the most part and combined with the cold pool aloft will result in a few of the stronger cells containing hail that may be up to 3/4" in diameter. Gusty winds will accompany some of these storms as well, but the main threat will be for hail. Over the western half of the region an isolated storm or two may pop with peak heating, but for the most part the day will be spent dry under partly cloudy skies. High temperatures will rise into the 70's over the interior except for the higher terrain of northern New York and New England where temperatures will climb into the 60's. Along the coastal plain and lowlands of southern Pennsylvania highs will reach the low 80's. Winds will be out of the northwest at 5-15mph.

Loss of heating will bring an end to the convection during the evening hours. Skies will clear as ridging builds eastward from the Ohio Valley. Patchy fog will develop in valleys and low lying areas as atmosphere decouples and the ground remains quite moist from recent rainfall. A weak mid-level disturbance/thermal trough may skirt through central New York bringing an increase in mid-level cloudiness and perhaps a few sprinkles but not much else. Lows will fall into the 40's and 50's across the interior with 60's likely along the coast.

Surface high pressure slides south of the region and off the Mid-Atlantic coast Wednesday morning, merging with the Bermuda high over the Western Atlantic. A return flow around the backside of the high will commence warm air advection over the Northeast. Both temperature and dewpoint at the 850mb level will rise 3-5 degrees during the day. A few isolated storms may develop in the more humid airmass over western New York and Pennsylvania late in the afternoon. Otherwise a mostly sunny day is to be expected with seasonable temperatures. Highs will make it to the low to mid 80's along the coastal plain with mid 70's to low 80's over the interior (low 7'0's over the higher terrain).



Mid-term - Issued 6/24 - 7:00am



Quasi-zonal jet stream along the US-Canadian border will steer a couple shortwave disturbances towards the Northeast in the mid-term. The first is expected to arrive in conjunction with a surface trough late Wednesday night and early Thursday morning and may be accompanied by a MCS. The surface low associated with this system moves north of the region through Ontario into Quebec dragging a trough through the Northeast during the day. Storms will have a weakening trend during the morning hours as they move across New York State but re-fire with afternoon heating across New England. Deeper moisture remains over the region Thursday night and scattered showers will continue along with some patchy fog. Diurnal showers and storms will fire up again on Friday with humid airmass in place. A second disturbance will move towards the region Friday night bringing a renewed chance for MCS activity.



Long-term - Issued 6/24 - 7:00am



A much stronger disturbance will move from central Canada into the Northern Plains and eventually the Great Lakes over the weekend. Southerly flow will increase pumping in deeper moisture as the Northeast will lie between this digging trough and the Bermuda high offshore. Showers and thunderstorms will become more widespread along a warm front moving into New England and along a pre-frontal/lee-side trough. Cold/occluded front moves into the western New York/Pennsylvania on Sunday with showers and thunderstorms developing along this boundary. Another enhanced region of precipitation will be over New England under the triple point. Temperatures will be near seasonable levels for highs with above normal lows across the southern half of the region. North of the warm front across northern New England and Maine temperatures will average near or slightly below normal for highs, and near normal for lows. Deep vertically stacked low moves to a position north of the Great Lakes by Monday. General troughiness over the Northeast early next week will bring scattered diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms to the region with enhancement under any shortwave disturbances that rotate through.

No big changes in the pattern beyond day 7 are apparent. General troughiness will persist over the Great Lakes as per GFS/ECMWF long range progs. Our weather here in the Northeast will be dictated by any westward expansion of the Bermuda high which is entirely possible as it becomes climatologically favorable and the gyration of the polar vortex progged to set-up shot over western Hudson Bay.





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Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar


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Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.



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June Daily Weather Statistics


June 1st - 71°F/51°F.....0.00"....30%
June 2nd - 73°F/50°F.....0.00"....70%
June 3rd - 77°F/46°F.....0.05"....70%
June 4th - 66°F/54°F.....0.28".....5%
June 5th - 69°F/56°F.....0.00"....25%
June 6th - 69°F/55°F.....0.16"....10%
June 7th - 88°F/63°F.....Trace....60%
June 8th - 85°F/63°F.....0.34"....50%
June 9th - 94°F/65°F.....0.00"....95%
June 10th - 94°F/67°F....0.98"....70%
June 11th - 78°F/59°F....Trace....90%
June 12th - 78°F/55°F....0.00"...100%
June 13th - 83°F/51°F....0.00"....95%
June 14th - 84°F/61°F....0.35"....40%
June 15th - 80°F/64°F....0.03"....70%
June 16th - 81°F/57°F....0.65"....50%
June 17th - 66°F/53°F....0.34"....20%
June 18th - 59°F/46°F....0.23"....10%
June 19th - 66°F/45°F....0.03"....30%
June 20th - 69°F/48°F....0.14"....30%
June 21st - 79°F/47°F....Trace....70%
June 22nd - 73°F/55°F....0.67"....50%
June 23rd - 77°F/57°F....0.46"....60%

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Severe thunderstorms today

By: sullivanweather, 10:41 AM GMT on June 23, 2008

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Regional Forecast



Synopsis - Issued 6/23 - 6:40am




An upper trough over the Great Lakes that has brought rounds of showers and thunderstorms to the Northeast over the previous couple days will move east into the region. With diurnal heating, the cold pool aloft, jet streak overhead and a surface cold front sliding through during the afternoon and evening, more showers and thunderstorms will be likely, some of which may be severe. The SPC has a large section of the Northeast under a slight risk for severe weather, although I'm expecting a more widespread event.



Short-term - Issued 6/23 6:40am



Clusters of showers with embedded thunderstorms are progressing through upstate New York and New England early this morning. Several of these cells have a history of severe weather with penny to nickel sized hail during the overnight. This area of precipitation will continue to move northeastwards during the morning hours with a gradual weakening trend to the convection. Locally dense fog resides over the region this morning as well, especially in the river valleys and where rain has fallen during the overnight. The fog will burn off by mid-morning with a partly cloudy sky overhead across the southern half of the region. Further north, showers with embedded thunderstorms will move into the Adirondack Mountains and along the US-Canadian border into Maine by noon.

The main show will begin to take shape during the early afternoon hours. Despite some drying in the mid-levels plenty of moisture will be in place. CAPE values rise above 1,000 J/kg across much of Pennsylvania, the southern half of New York and southern New England. Lapse rates of around 7C/km in the mid levels moves overhead as cold pool aloft advances eastward with ever increasing lapse rates in the low levels after several hours of broken sunshine. The cold front will still lie back over the Niagara Frontier but outflow boundaries and differential heating will provide enough convergence at the surface ahead of the front for convection to fire. Once again, hail will be a factor with today's storms with freezing levels between 8-10,000 feet, but with a 50kt 500mb jet cutting through the region, strong winds will also be an issue. Speed shear of 40-55kts will organize storms that develop into bowing line segments. Storms will have a quick northeast to north-northeastward motion, however, the tail end of any line segments training cells may develop. With precipitable water values well over an inch flash flooding may become a concern as well. Other showers and thunderstorms will develop over central and northern New England as a pre-frontal trough moves through. Chances for severe weather here will be less as the atmosphere will be more stable than areas to the south, but strong winds aloft could easily be mixed down to the surface in stronger convective cells. Late in the afternoon the surface cold front will enter western New York and Pennsylvania. Additional showers and thunderstorms will develop along this boundary as it pushes southeastwards. Shear along the front won't be as high as areas further east so the wind damage threat is diminished, but close to the core of the cold pool aloft, hail will certainly be an issue. High temperatures should range from the 60's across the northern interior to the 70's across much of the rest of the interior. Areas in the coastal plain should climb into the low 80's.

The loss of heating during the evening will allow for convection away from the frontal boundary to diminish. Showers and thunderstorms along the front itself will continue, but will also gradually weaken as the front approaches the coast. Southerly winds will advect a more stable marine layer along the immediate coast that will help to dampen the storms as they approach. Winds behind the front are light and skies will clear some. Valley regions should decouple and allow for radiational fog to develop. Lows fall back into the 50's across the interior with 40's across the higher terrain of the Adirondacks. 60's should do along the coast.


Mid-term - Issued 6/22 - 8:50am




Upper trough axis moves overhead on Tuesday as the surface front moves off the coast. Enough moisture/instability within the trough axis will combine with convergence provided by cyclonic flow to produce scattered afternoon convection. Convection will likely consist of pulse thunderstorms with gusty winds and small hail as freezing levels fall below climatology. Temperatures will average several degrees below normal. High pressure builds into the region from the west Tuesday night. Combined with loss of daytime heating, showers and thunderstorms will quickly diminish and skies will clear. Patchy radiational fog may develop in the sheltered valleys and around area waterways. High pressure continues to assert itself on Wednesday with mainly dry weather and partly cloudy skies. Temperatures will climb towards normal levels. The NAM models seems to want to develop a coastal low that would bring clouds and rain to coastal regions, but this solution has no support from any of the other models.



Long-term - Issued 6/22 - 8:50am



Shortwave energy continues to ripple along the jet stream in a northwest flow over the Northeast in the long term which will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms with their passage. Timing of these disturbances this far out is impossible, but it appears daily chances for MCS activity is certainly there. Temperatures will average near seasonable levels.







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Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar


___________________________________________________________

Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.



___________________________________________________________




June Daily Weather Statistics


June 1st - 71°F/51°F.....0.00"....30%
June 2nd - 73°F/50°F.....0.00"....70%
June 3rd - 77°F/46°F.....0.05"....70%
June 4th - 66°F/54°F.....0.28".....5%
June 5th - 69°F/56°F.....0.00"....25%
June 6th - 69°F/55°F.....0.16"....10%
June 7th - 88°F/63°F.....Trace....60%
June 8th - 85°F/63°F.....0.34"....50%
June 9th - 94°F/65°F.....0.00"....95%
June 10th - 94°F/67°F....0.98"....70%
June 11th - 78°F/59°F....Trace....90%
June 12th - 78°F/55°F....0.00"...100%
June 13th - 83°F/51°F....0.00"....95%
June 14th - 84°F/61°F....0.35"....40%
June 15th - 80°F/64°F....0.03"....70%
June 16th - 81°F/57°F....0.65"....50%
June 17th - 66°F/53°F....0.34"....20%
June 18th - 59°F/46°F....0.23"....10%
June 19th - 66°F/45°F....0.03"....30%
June 20th - 69°F/48°F....0.14"....30%
June 21st - 79°F/47°F....Trace....70%
June 22nd - 73°F/55°F....0.67"....50%

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Unsettled weather to continue

By: sullivanweather, 12:47 PM GMT on June 22, 2008

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Current watches, warnings and advisories.


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Regional Forecast



Synopsis - Issued 6/22 - 8:50am



A long wave upper trough will shift eastwards from the Great Lakes to settle over the Northeast for the next 72-84 hours. This feature will keep generally unsettled weather over the region as several shortwave disturbances round the base of the trough and move through the Northeast. Showers and thunderstorms are a good bet at any time, but by no means will either of the next three days be washouts. A surface ridge will dry things out a bit for Wednesday but general broad troughiness will remain over the Great Lakes/Northeast. By weeks' end additional shortwave impulses will drop down the backside of the trough, sharpening it and renewing the chances for showers and thunderstorms.



Short-term - Issued 6/22 - 8:50am



A pre-frontal trough is currently draped over eastern Pennsylvania extending north-northeastwards into eastern New York State. Showers and thundershowers accompany this boundary as it slowly works its way on east. Low clouds and fog are also prevalent over much of southern New England, coastal Maine and northwestern Pennsylvania. These will burn off as the morning progresses but clouds of varying levels will be increasing with the approach of the thermal trough. Any sun that does manage to break out will serve to destabilize the atmosphere and give rise to thunderstorms, especially along the trough. Thunderstorms that do develop have the potential to reach severe levels and the SPC has a sizeable portion of the region under a slight risk for severe weather with the main threats being hail and high winds. The airmass isn’t terribly warm and/or moist with surface temperatures pushing into the 70’s across the interior with low 80’s possible along the coastal plain away from the immediate coast and dewpoints generally running in the mid 50’s to low 60’s. Bulk shear only yields 30-35kt, lapse rates are between 6-6.5C/km, CAPE for the most part will be under 1,000 J/kg. All in all, not impressive numbers but enough variables are present for a marginal event. However, there is good convergence along the trough and this system does have a history of producing severe weather, as well as some tornados. Stronger storms should begin to fire around the noon hour in eastern New York State and push into western New England during the afternoon. Other additional showers and thunderstorms will develop over western New York and Pennsylvania as daytime heating destabilizes the atmosphere.

Diurnal activity winds down this evening with the loss of heating. Along the trough itself, showers and thundershowers will continue into the overnight across New England. Patchy fog will develop, especially in low lying areas and where late afternoon rain falls.

A stronger disturbance will round the base of the upper trough on Monday and head into the region by the afternoon. With less morning cloud cover, stronger winds aloft, a more potent disturbance in the mid-levels, chances for severe weather tomorrow are greater than those of today. Strong winds and large hail will be the primary threats on Monday. The surface frontal boundary will move into western sections late in the day and continue across the remainder of Pennsylvania and New York states during the overnight hours on Monday with additional rain and thundershowers along it.



Mid-term - Issued 6/22 - 8:50am




Upper trough axis moves overhead on Tuesday as the surface front moves off the coast. Enough moisture/instability within the trough axis will combine with convergence provided by cyclonic flow to produce scattered afternoon convection. Convection will likely consist of pulse thunderstorms with gusty winds and small hail as freezing levels fall below climatology. Temperatures will average several degrees below normal. High pressure builds into the region from the west Tuesday night. Combined with loss of daytime heating, showers and thunderstorms will quickly diminish and skies will clear. Patchy radiational fog may develop in the sheltered valleys and around area waterways. High pressure continues to assert itself on Wednesday with mainly dry weather and partly cloudy skies. Temperatures will climb towards normal levels. The NAM models seems to want to develop a coastal low that would bring clouds and rain to coastal regions, but this solution has no support from any of the other models.



Long-term - Issued 6/22 - 8:50am



Shortwave energy continues to ripple along the jet stream in a northwest flow over the Northeast in the long term which will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms with their passage. Timing of these disturbances this far out is impossible, but it appears daily chances for MCS activity is certainly there. Temperatures will average near seasonable levels.







__________________________________________________________



Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar


___________________________________________________________

Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.



___________________________________________________________




June Daily Weather Statistics


June 1st - 71°F/51°F.....0.00"....30%
June 2nd - 73°F/50°F.....0.00"....70%
June 3rd - 77°F/46°F.....0.05"....70%
June 4th - 66°F/54°F.....0.28".....5%
June 5th - 69°F/56°F.....0.00"....25%
June 6th - 69°F/55°F.....0.16"....10%
June 7th - 88°F/63°F.....Trace....60%
June 8th - 85°F/63°F.....0.34"....50%
June 9th - 94°F/65°F.....0.00"....95%
June 10th - 94°F/67°F....0.98"....70%
June 11th - 78°F/59°F....Trace....90%
June 12th - 78°F/55°F....0.00"...100%
June 13th - 83°F/51°F....0.00"....95%
June 14th - 84°F/61°F....0.35"....40%
June 15th - 80°F/64°F....0.03"....70%
June 16th - 81°F/57°F....0.65"....50%
June 17th - 66°F/53°F....0.34"....20%
June 18th - 59°F/46°F....0.23"....10%
June 19th - 66°F/45°F....0.03"....30%
June 20th - 69°F/48°F....0.14"....30%
June 21st - 79°F/47°F....Trace....70%

Permalink

Upper low to sit over the Northeast

By: sullivanweather, 9:29 AM GMT on June 17, 2008

Storm reports last 72 hours. Click on map to view individual reports.


storm reports




Northern New England storm reports


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Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings

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Regional Forecast



Synopsis - Issued 6/17 - 5:30am



An upper level low will drop over the Northeast on Tuesday and stick around for much of the week as a blocking ridge develops over the Davis Strait. Chances for diurnally driven showers and thundershowers will exist each day as the cold pool aloft and June sun work in tandem to destabilize the atmosphere. Showers and thundershowers will be most concentrated near any shortwaves that rotate around this upper low. This feature will begin to lift northeastward by the start of the weekend but another trough will move into the region, perhaps spawning a coastal system that could bring more rain. Temperatures should average below normal for much of the period with daily max's running 5-10 degrees below normal and overnight lows slightly below to near normal.



Short-term - Issued 6/17 - 5:30am



Steadier rain will begin the day over northern Maine as the trough that swept through the region yesterday tilts negative, increasing the onshore flow ahead of the system. Another batch of scattered showers exists over western New York associated with a 500mb shortwave. This potent spoke of energy will rotate into the Northeast during the day on Tuesday, setting off showers and thunderstorms. The shortwave will be associated with a secondary surge of cold air aloft as the upper level low over the Great lakes slowly churns towards the region. Behind the disturbance 500mb temperatures fall to -20°C with freezing levels dropping to an astonishing 5-6,000 feet! Even though skin temperatures are only expected to rise into the 60's across much of the interior, lapse rates in the lower and middle levels of the atmosphere will still be great enough to induce convection. Low-topped cells will develop with diurnal heating in northeast Pennsylvania and south-central New York during the late morning and intensify as they push eastward into southern/central New England. Hail will be the primary threat from any storms that do develop with the low freezing levels. A few localized microbursts are possible in any of the stronger cells that do develop but this wind damage threat appears minimal. Today's storms should not produce the same damaging hail that fell with yesterday's storms, which fell as the size of golf balls in some locations. Instead smaller pea-sized to penny-sized hail should do. Storm chances will diminish towards southern Pennsylvania to the southern coastal plain as partly cloudy skies will prevail with temperatures in the upper 60's to mid 70's. Other isolated orographic aided showers and thunderstorms will develop over northern New York, Vermont and New Hampshire during the afternoon. Showers and thundershowers will diminish tonight with the loss of heating. Skies will be partly cloudy to mostly clear with temperatures ranging from the 50's along the coastal plain to the 40's across much of the interior. Some of the higher elevations northern New York and New England may drop into the upper 30's.

Diurnal showers and thundershowers will develop once again tomorrow with the cold pool aloft remaining in place. However, the lack of any significant mid-level energy will make for a more isolated nature to the precipitation. Showers will develop from orographic lift and differential heating. Temperature will be several degrees colder than today with the core of the upper low overhead. Showers will die after dusk once again tomorrow night, although marginable instability provided by the lakes may allow for showers to develop downwind. Delta T's will approach 12°C Wednesday night with the cold pool overhead. Lows will range from the upper 30's across the higher terrain to the lower 50's along the coast with 40's predominate across the rest of the interior.


Mid-term - Issued 6/17 - 5:30am




The vertically stacked low will slowly lift northeastwards into New England Thursday and Friday. Temperatures will continue to average below normal with diurnally driven showers and thundershowers. Impossible to time shortwaves rotating around the upper low will enhance chances for any precipitation. This upper low finally begins to lift into Canada by Saturday with rising heights and a return to near normal temperatures. Most locales will remain precipitation-free, however, isolated showers are still a possibility, especially over New England.



Long-term - Issued 6/17 - 5:30am



Another trough will dip into the Northeast on Sunday bringing renewed chances for rainfall. The GFS operational and several ensemble members are indicating the development of a coastal system that could bring a steady soaking rainfall and below normal temperatures to areas within 100-150 miles of the coast right on through the beginning of next week. The GGEM is also indicating coastal develop while the ECMWF keeps the bulk of the system offshore with some fringe effects along the immediate coast.

This system should pull away by Tuesday with building heights and warming temperatures returning to the region.





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Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar


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Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.



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June Daily Weather Statistics


June 1st - 71°F/51°F.....0.00"....30%
June 2nd - 73°F/50°F.....0.00"....70%
June 3rd - 77°F/46°F.....0.05"....70%
June 4th - 66°F/54°F.....0.28".....5%
June 5th - 69°F/56°F.....0.00"....25%
June 6th - 69°F/55°F.....0.16"....10%
June 7th - 88°F/63°F.....Trace....60%
June 8th - 85°F/63°F.....0.34"....50%
June 9th - 94°F/65°F.....0.00"....95%
June 10th - 94°F/67°F....0.98"....70%
June 11th - 78°F/59°F....Trace....90%
June 12th - 78°F/55°F....0.00"...100%
June 13th - 83°F/51°F....0.00"....95%
June 14th - 84°F/61°F....0.35"....40%
June 15th - 80°F/64°F....0.03"....70%
June 16th - 81°F/57°F....0.65"....50%
June 17th - 66°F/53°F....0.34"....20%
June 18th - 59°F/46°F....0.23"....10%
June 19th - 66°F/45°F....0.03"....30%
June 20th - 69°F/48°F....0.14"....30%
June 21st - 79°F/47°F....Trace....70%

Updated: 7:20 AM GMT on June 22, 2008

Permalink

Severe storms/record highs today

By: sullivanweather, 11:16 AM GMT on June 10, 2008

Storm warnings and reports over the previous 3 days.





Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings

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Regional Forecast




Fig. 1 - The SPC has placed central/eastern Pennsylvania, central/northern New York, western Vermont and northwestern New Jersey under a moderate risk for severe thunderstorms today with the main threat being damaging winds.



An extremely active day is upcoming for the Northeast as a strong cold front will slam into the unseasonably hot humid airmass that has been in place over the past several days. Strong to severe storms are likely with this frontal passage during the afternoon and evening hours.

Scattered thundershowers are moving through the Adirondacks and across eastern Maine early this morning but these should weaken over the next couple hours. Other thundershowers are pressing into western Pennsylvania as the cold front approaches from the west. Otherwise expect mostly clear skies as the sun comes up with rapidly rising temperatures. With most of the region is starting the day in the 70's temperatures will reach the 80's by mid morning with the large urban areas of New York and Philadelphia possibly reaching into the 90's a couple hours before noon. By afternoon much of the coastal plain and inland valleys will be solidly in the 90's under sunny skies with heat indices into the triple digits. Heat advisories and excessive heat warnings are issued for these locations. Several high temperature records are in jeopardy of being broken today. The western half of Pennsylvania and New York, northern New England and the higher terrain should remain in the 80's with earlier arrival of clouds and precipitation.

Not only will the heat be a major issue today, strong to severe thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon hours along and out ahead of a strong cold front. Surface based CAPE values reach over 2,000J/kg with most unstable CAPE approaching 4,000J/kg in some locations. Atmosphere will initially be capped but as the ridge gives way in response to the approaching trough height falls and cooling aloft will allow for storms to pop. Storms will fire up along a pre-frontal trough from central Pennsylvania into central New York and along the actual cold front that will be pushing into western Pennsylvania and New York. Bulk shear is unidirectional in excess of 50kts across a wide swath of central Pennsylvania to the Canadian border and should promote organization of these storms into a squall line with bowing segments due to extreme low level shear/instability. This is the area the SPC has outlined for a moderate risk of severe thunderstorms, a pretty rare occurrence here in the Northeast. Damaging winds and hail can be expected with the squall line. Individual storms out ahead of the squall line have the potential to grow into supercells that could very well drop a tornado.

The storms will weaken some late in the evening as they push into New England although some severe weather is still possible. The air behind the front will send temperatures tonight some 15-20 degrees cooler than last night with lowering humidity. Some patchy fog may develop in low lying areas and where it rains. Lows will drop into the 60’s and low 70’s along the coastal plain with upper 50’s to low 60’s over the interior.



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Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar


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Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.



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June Daily Weather Statistics


June 1st - 71°F/51°F....0.00"....30%
June 2nd - 73°F/50°F....0.00"....70%
June 3rd - 77°F/46°F....0.05"....70%
June 4th - 66°F/54°F....0.28".....5%
June 5th - 69°F/56°F....0.00"....25%
June 6th - 69°F/55°F....0.16"....10%
June 7th - 88°F/63°F....Trace....60%
June 8th - 85°F/63°F....0.34"....50%
June 9th - 94°F/65°F....0.00"....95%
June 10th - 94°F/67°F...0.98"....70%

Updated: 6:06 PM GMT on June 11, 2008

Permalink

The heat is on!

By: sullivanweather, 6:24 PM GMT on June 07, 2008

Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings

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Regional Forecast


Sunday afternoon update

A weak mid-level disturbance working in conjunction with a surface trough still draped over central New York has become the focal point for scattered convection this afternoon. A cluster of scattered thunderstorms has developed over the Finger Lakes/Mohawk Valley region of New York State, moving eastward around 30mph. These thunderstorms will continue during the afternoon hours fueled by high heat and humidity that has enveloped the region. A few cells may become severe around the peak heating hours of 12-5pm, containing penny sized hail and wind gusts over 60mph in wet microbursts. In fact, a severe thunderstorm watch has just been posted for much of central and eastern New York, northeast Pennsylvania and western New England.



Synopsis - Issued 6/7 - 2:30pm


A strong deep-layer ridge will anchor itself over the Carolinas through Monday before retreating into the Western Atlantic in response to an approaching trough Tuesday. For the next several days near record breaking warmth will envelop much of the Northeast with high temperatures well into the 90's with heat index values over 100°F. Precipitation chances will be limited to diurnal convection with the best chances across the far north, closer to the periphery of the ridge. A better chance for organized convection occurs Tuesday with the approach of a shortwave trough/cold front. Cooler temperatures (closer to normal, actually) will also follow in the wake of this system for Wednesday before the ridge tries to reestablish itself Thursday and Friday. A vertically stacked low off Nova Scotia will have to be watched late next week for the potential to draw a cooler marine layer over coastal New England.


Short-term - Issued 6/7 2:30pm


The seasons' first heat wave is upon us here in the Northeast. Temperatures yesterday climbed into the low to mid 90's across central New York and much of western/central Pennsylvania as the areas east of the Appalachians found themselves under a tough marine layer and temperatures in the 60's and 70's for much of the first half of the day before the warm front finally broke through. Today that warm front lies across northern New England with all points south socked in with sultry weather. A weak surface trough extends across the NY/PA border into western New England which may provide a focus for afternoon convection. Surface based CAPE values will be well over 2,000J/kg with the oppressive temp-dewpoint combo. An area of cumulus clouds on satellite is moving eastwards across north-central Pennsylvania and south-central New York into an area of high low-level lapse rates and a weaker mid level cap over eastern New York and western New England. This appears to be the prime location for storms during the afternoon hours, some of which may become severe with strong winds due to wet microbursts. A ribbon of PW's of 1.75" bisects the thunderstorm threat area and shear is weak so heavy rain from slow moving storms may cause some flash flooding or ponding of water in low-lying areas.

Convection quickly dies after dusk with loss of daytime heating. However, temperatures won't fall all too fast after a very hot day and high humidity. Temperatures during the evening will settle back through the 80's into the mid and upper 70's by midnight. Lows will bottom out in the upper 60's across the interior (mid 60's higher terrain), and 70's elsewhere. Areas of fog may form as temperatures approach the dewpoints and especially where any convection pops. Areas of northern New England will be closer to the warm front as it hangs up over this area before pushing north late Sunday. Some showers and thundershowers may occur here as a shortwave passes by to the north over Canada. Temperatures will be several degrees cooler also as this area will remain slightly to the north of the airmass over us here in the south.


Mid-term - Issued 6/7 - 2:30pm


Much more of the same Sunday and Monday as heights build northward along the coast. 850mb temps reach 17-21°C from north to south Sunday and peak Monday a degree or two higher. This will push highs into the upper 80's to mid 90's Sunday with upper 90's in the hotter locales on Monday. Overnight lows will give little relief with temperatures falling back into the 70's for most with any 60's confined to the far north over the higher terrain. The urban locations around Philadelphia and New York City may even remain in the 80's during the overnight.


Long-term - Issued 6/7 - 2:30pm



A cold front will approach from the west Tuesday and should spark a round of convection with the hot humid airmass in place. There's timing differences in the models at this time with a few members bringing the cold front through earlier in the day and others during late afternoon and early evening. A later frontal arrival would make for a greater threat for severe weather with this feature and one more day of unseasonably hot weather. Cooler temperatures and lower humidity follow for Wednesday. Heights start to build once again Thursday and Friday, this time from the southwest. Tuesday/Wednesday's cold front returns as a warm front which may hang up over the Appalachians once again as it did last Thursday, creating a west-east temperature gradient over the region. Next trough approaches Saturday afternoon.



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Garden Series

Blog 1: Planning the Garden
Blog 2: Cool season crops
Blog 3: Companion gardening
Blog 4: Container gardening


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Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar


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Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.



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June Daily Weather Statistics


June 1st - 71°F/51°F....0.00"....30%
June 2nd - 73°F/50°F....0.00"....70%
June 3rd - 77°F/46°F....0.05"....70%
June 4th - 66°F/54°F....0.28".....5%
June 5th - 69°F/56°F....0.00"....25%
June 6th - 69°F/55°F....0.16"....10%
June 7th - 88°F/63°F....Trace....60%
June 8th - 85°F/63°F....0.34"....50%
June 9th - 94°F/65°F....0.00"....95%

Updated: 5:49 AM GMT on June 10, 2008

Permalink

Showers and storms tonight/Heat wave this weekend

By: sullivanweather, 6:05 PM GMT on June 03, 2008




Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings

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Regional Forecast


Synopsis - Issued 6/3 - 2:00pm


A potent mid-level shortwave will spawn surface low pressure that will track along a weak cold front dropping into the region tonight into Wednesday. This front will return northward on Thursday allowing a very summer-like airmass to move across the region for Friday lasting into next week. Atmosphere appears capped, but with the warm and humid airmass over the region diurnally driven thunderstorms are possible. The next chance for widespread rainfall occurs during the middle of next week.


Short-term - Issued 6/3 - 3:55pm


An active night of weather is expected as the aforementioned mid-level disturbance/surface low couplet takes a track eastwards right across the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania this evening into the overnight, then offshore Long Island during the morning hours on Wednesday. The southern half of the region will be placed favorably in the entrance region of a divergent 90-110kt jet streak, 30-40kt low level jet, PVA from the mid-level disturbance, mid-level isentropic lift, sharp low-level thermal gradient and an increasingly moist airmass (PW's 1.5-2"). This should all lead to the development of a rather impressive MCS that will track across Pennsylvania during the overnight. Heavy rainfall appears to be the main threat but a few reports of severe wind gusts are possible. To the north of this system exiting jet segments should expand the rainfall to the northeast of the MCS and enough mid-level instability will support embedded thundershowers, but severe weather and/or excessive rainfall are unlikely. Across the far north scattered showers are possible but the chances for these will wane as the front slides southward. Overnight low temperatures will be mild with the clouds and humid airmass in place overthe region. Lows should remain in the 60's across the interior except for the higher terrain and northern Maine where lows will bottom out in the 50's. Along the coastal plain temperatures should remain in the 70's until precipitation moves in, cooling temperatures into the upper 60's.

MCS will exit during the morning hours on Wednesday with slight clearing behind the departing system. If enough sun manages to break through another round of thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon as the cold front sags to the south. Best chances for these storms will be across the southerntier of Pennsylvania where the greatest ow leel convergence will be due to the stalling front and outflow boundaries from the previous nights' convection. Additional showers will be present over New England on the north side of the mornings' MCS. Low-level convergence and mid level frontogenesis will fuel these showers which may contain a few enbedded rumbles of thunder. Highs on Wednesday will be mild as clouds and showers help to keep temperatures down. Across the northern interior temperatures should climb into the 60's while across the south 70's will do. It will also be quite muggy along the southerntier of Pennsylvania where the front will fail to push south of the area.


Surface high pressure moves through the Northeast on Thursday leading to a fair first half of the day and warming temperatures. Light onshore breeze and weak CAD signature in the models suggest the warmest readings will be found west of the Appalachians. As the high moves offshore during the late afternoon Wednesday's cold front will return northward as a warm front. Scattered convection will fire up along this boundary later in the day as the low level thermal gradient tightens across the region. Highs will climb into the 70's over the northern interior and along the immediate coast. Cape Cod and the Twin Forks or Long Island may even remain in the 60's given the onshore flow as offshore SST's are still quite chilly. Across southern Pennsylvania and west of the Appalachians along the lake plains temperatures will climb into the 80's.


Mid-term - Issued 6/3 - 4:15pm


A big time pattern change is in store for the Northeast starting Thursday night as the warm front lifts across the region. A mid-level disturbance riding along this warm front will spawn the development of an MCS that will cross from Canada into New England during the overnight. Scattered areas of showers and thunderstorms will also be possible as the warm front crosses over the Appalachins and attempts to displace the wedge of relatively cooler air on the east side of the mountains. Overnight lows will only fall 5-10 degrees from their afternoon highs as clouds and a much warmer, more humid airmass moves into the region.


Heights build dramatically by Friday as deep layer ridging develops over the Eastern Seaboard. Thermal gradient will set up across northern New England where afternoon convection will fire. Here, temperatures will range from the mid 70's to mid 80's. Further south the atmosphere appears to be well-capped although a terrain enhanced cell is not out of the realm of possibility. However, the big story will be the temperatures. 850mb temps will rise from 18-20°C and 500mb thicknesses will reach the upper 570dm. At the surface temperatures will climb into the upper 80's and low 90's combined with increasing levels of humidity. Since this will be the first real taste of summer heat now would be a good time to go over some hot weather safety. Drink plenty of non-alcoholic fluids, check on the elderly/pets, stay out of the sun during the hottest time of the day when the sun is nearly directly overhead (10am-4pm).

It will remain warm and muggy during the overnigt hours Friday into early Saturday. Temperatures will only fall back into the 60's across the north with 70's south.


Long-term - Issued 6/3 - 4:30pm

The heat is on!

After a May which featured consistantly below normal temperature the upcoming heat wave this weekend will be a big shock to the system. Broad southwesterly flow across the entire eastern half of the country will continue to pump a hot, humid airmass into the Northeast region. Across northern New England a couple of shortwaves may make an attempt to flatten the topside of the right and bring some scattered thundershowers, but for the most part it will be a scorcher. There's slight chances for afternoon convection each day of the weekend into Monday as the heat and humidity will certainly be there. Lacking will be a triggering mechanism and inhibiting convection will be a well-capped atmosphere. Despite the negatives, there will be terrain enhancement, so a keeping a slight chance in the forecast at this timeframe is prudent. With the extended period of hot weather upcoming be sure to follow some hot weather safety, especially if spending long period of time outdoors, such as at picnics or playing golf.

The East Coast ridge will begin to break down some by Tuesday and Wednesday allowing for increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. However, it will remain muggy with above normal temperatures throughout the long term.


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Garden Series

Blog 1: Planning the Garden
Blog 2: Cool season crops
Blog 3: Companion gardening
Blog 4: Container gardening


__________________________________________________________



Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar


___________________________________________________________

Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.



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June Daily Weather Statistics


June 1st - 71°F/51°F....0.00"....30%
June 2nd - 73°F/50°F....0.00"....70%
June 3rd - 77°F/46°F....0.05"....70%
June 4th - 66°F/54°F....0.28".....5%
June 5th - 69°F/56°F....0.00"....25%

Updated: 7:29 AM GMT on June 06, 2008

Permalink

Sunday forecast/warm season crops (1)

By: sullivanweather, 2:37 PM GMT on June 01, 2008

I'll be posting the forecast for today and most of the warm season crops blog, minus peppers and tomatoes, which I have yet to complete. That section of the warm season crops will be added tomorrow. I'll be at the baseball game tonight, Dodgers vs. Mets on ESPN. I likely won't be back home until 3 in the morning. It's going to be a looong night.

Take care all!


Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings

------


Regional Forecast


The Northeast will find itself under a longwave trough this Sunday with partly to mostly cloudy skies and widely scattered showers. Clouds will be most prevalent across the northern interior, especially over the higher terrain while clouds along the coastal plain will be more sparse. Highs will be near or slightly below seasonable levels region-wide. Temperatures will range from the low to mid 70's along the coastal plain to the upper 60's to low 70's over the southern interior. Across the north the extra cloud cover and higher concentration of showers will keep temperatures down some. Highs here will only climb into the low to mid 60's with temperatures likely to fall back into the 50's in any rain that develops. Winds will be from the west at 5-15mph.

Skies will clear out across the south tonight as weak high pressure builds into the Central Appalachians. However, across the north, cyclonic flow will prevail around low pressure moving into the Canadian Martimes keeping clouds around, although any showers should be on the wane. Lows will drop back into the mid to upper 50's across the coastal plain with 40's and low 50's over the interior.

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Corn

A favorite at summertime barbecues, corn is a great crop to have in the garden, especially if you have the space for it. Corn requires rich soil, which must be of at least 60°F to germinate the seeds properly, and a full sun location. At minimum, to ensure a proper harvest, corn will occupy at least 60 sq.ft of garden space - 4 rows, of at least 4 feet in length, 3 feet apart (and room to maneuver around the periphery). Sow the corn seeds at least 1/2” deep, one inch apart down the rows and water in thoroughly. After germination, thin the seedlings to 6 inches apart and eliminate any weeds that pop up to compete with the corn (they are not good competitors early in life). Depending in variety, corn will be ready for harvest in as little as 60 days (an early variety), or as many as 95 days (a long season variety). What I have found is that the longer season corn is usually sweeter in taste. Although corn will set its roots deep and can tolerate heat and drought, water corn in times of dry weather, especially if no rain has occurred in a 7 day span.

Common pests of corn include the corn earworm and silkworms, which enter the ear of corn through the silk. Keep tomatoes and corn away from each other in the garden due to the corn earworm which will attack both plants. Crows and jays may also try to snack on the crop. When harvesting the corn pull the ear down and twist in the same motion. Corn also loses its sugars to starches quickly after harvesting but corn will keep well on the plant for several weeks before needing to be harvested. In other words, to keep sweet corn on your plate night after night, harvest only what you intend to use that night before making a final harvest. Corn stalks also make great Halloween decor and compost. However, one must be careful. If your corn crop had died back due to fungus you could spread the spores into your compost so only add ‘healthy’ plants.


Curcubit Family

The Curcubita family, which includes cucumbers, gourds, squashes and pumpkins. There are two methods of growing the members of the Curcubit family in the garden, each of which require rich, well-draining, high humus soil. The first is planting them in a row, with a fence or trellis alongside the row to support the vines (works best for non-heavy curcubits such as cucumbers and lighter gourds). The second is planting a hill, leaving the vines to sprawl out across the garden(works best with melons, squashes, pumpkins and heavier gourds). The latter method (with cucumbers and gourds) will usually yield more fruits as the vines grows secondary roots where they come in contact with soil, tapping more nutrients. The prior will yield less fruits due to the vines being suspended in air, but will also require much less space in the garden and an ideal method for smaller gardens. Sow seeds in soil of at least 60°F (in rows, seeds should be sowed 2 inches apart, in hills, around 8 seeds per hill) to around an inch in depth and water immediately. Then again after 2 or 3 days, if no rain has fallen to ensure a high percentage, timely germination. Once seedlings begin to develop their second sets of leaves thin them out to 4 inches apart in rows or leaving the strongest 3-4 seedlings per hill. Curcubits are a heavy feeder and will require scheduled fertilization, usually once every other week. As the plants grow, train them to climb the support given by twining the vines through a few openings in the support. Most cucumbers and squashes will begin to produce in 60 days while pumpkins and gourds will take as many as 100 days or more.

Curcubits have many pests and diseases they are susceptible to. Cucumber beetles can be a big problem, as they eat all parts of the plant and will do so quickly. Radishes planted close by curcubits will deter these pests but most often other measures must be taken. Picking them off by hand is effective but tedious or applying insect deterrents such as hot pepper spray have shown results. Squash Vine Borers also will attack curcubits, eating their way into the vine at its junction with the soil and tunneling through the plant. Fungus will also attack curcubits. The most common fungus is a white powdery like substance, powdery mildew, which covers the leaves. Remove any leaves showing signs of this problem.

Harvest cucumbers and summer squashes the first day they appear to ‘stop growing’. Cucumbers and summer squashes grow very fast and are usually ready for harvest between 4-5 days after forming. Leaving them on the plant too long will cause the plants to curtail its production. Winter squash can be picked as soon as the skin shows a noticeable change in colour. Plants usually produce fruits until frost.


Eggplant

Enjoyed the world over, eggplant has found its way into international cuisine and can into your dinner plate straight from your garden very easily. Eggplant prefers hot weather and will not produce well if started before nighttime temperatures climb above 45°F. In northern climes this means starting the plants indoors at least 6 weeks before setting them outside, or buying them from the local nursery. You may still get fruit by direct seeding them into your garden, but an early frost in September will just about eliminate the possibility of seeing any fruit. Eggplant needs a soil rich in organic material and as much sun as possible. Eggplant would most like the sunniest location in your garden. If starting by seed, they only need to be pressed firmly into the soil and watered in. Plants should be placed 2 feet apart in rows 2-3 feet apart. Eggplants also do not like competition with weed, so cultivate the beds often, especially while young. The plants typically take 10-12 weeks to mature.

Common pests include aphids, red spider mites and whiteflies. Other pests, such as the leaf-hopper beetle are less common, but more damaging. They will bullet-spray the leaves with holes as they feed very quickly while young, eventually turning into larger ever more consuming insects. Hot pepper spray works well in control, as well as picking them off by hand.

Harvest when the fruit is young and firm. Letting the fruit grow too much will allow for seed development inside the fruit which robs it of flavor. Cut fruit off the plant with a good sharp pair of durable scissors or pruners, they are very tough.



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Garden Series

Blog 1: Planning the Garden
Blog 2: Cool season crops
Blog 3: Companion gardening
Blog 4: Container gardening


__________________________________________________________



Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar


___________________________________________________________

Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.



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May Daily Weather Statistics

May 1st - 56°F/25°F...0.12"...30%
May 2nd - 48°F/45°F...0.05"....0%
May 3rd - 48°F/43°F...0.16"....0%
May 4th - 64°F/45°F...0.07"...60%
May 5th - 67°F/35°F...0.00"...75%
May 6th - 70°F/36°F...Trace"...90%
May 7th - 75°F/39°F....0.00"...80%
May 8th - 68°F/48°F....0.04"...25%
May 9th - 48°F/42°F....0.62"....0%
May 10th - 61°F/39°F...0.00"...60%
May 11th - 62°F/36°F...0.00"...40%
May 12th - 54°F/39°F...Trace...20%
May 13th - 70°F/38°F...0.00"...90%
May 14th - 73°F/37°F...0.01"...95%
May 15th - 65°F/48°F...0.26"...40%
May 16th - 49°F/45°F...1.03"....0%
May 17th - 65°F/41°F...0.08"...40%
May 18th - 53°F/43°F...0.11"...25%
May 19th - 49°F/36°F...0.09"...10% (Snow - Trace)
May 20th - 53°F/28°F...Trace...20%
May 21st - 54°F/41°F...0.28"...25%
May 22nd - 51°F/43°F...0.22"...30% (Snow - Trace)
May 23rd - 60°F/45°F...Trace...25%
May 24th - 64°F/42°F...0.01"...80%
May 25th - 72°F/39°F...0.00"...95%
May 26th - 79°F/43°F...0.03"...70%
May 27th - 79°F/48°F...Trace...60%
May 28th - 61°F/39°F...0.00"..100%
May 29th - 72°F/35°F...0.00"..100%
May 30th - 78°F/39°F...Trace...80%
May 31st - 75°F/56°F...0.52"...50%

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Tropical "Nightshift" 6/1/08

By: sullivanweather, 4:09 AM GMT on June 01, 2008

Welcome to the 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season! We already have our first storm of the season on our hands this overnight as Tropical Storm Arthur, which formed in the Western Caribbean late on the morning of the 31st, has come ashore in Belize this afternoon. The main threats at this juncture with Arthur is heavy rain and squalls, especially along the Caribbean coastline of the Yucatan Peninsula.

The forecast for Arthur calls for degeneration over the Yucatan over the next 24-48 hours before dissapation, although the NHC hints at the slight possibility of the system emerging over the southern Bay of Campeche and possible re-generation.


Fig. 1 - Auto-updating IR satelllite image centered over Tropical Storm Arthur.



Fig. 2 - Latest microwave imagery showing a band of deep convection offshore Belize.



Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic is relatively quiet in the early going. A few weak easterly waves are traversing the ITCZ between Africa and South America. The western most wave is moving west around 15kts and has an axis around 59°W. Most of the convection associated with this wave is buried in the ITCZ. A second wave is along 45°W, south of 15°N moving westward around 15kts. Scattered moderate convection is also associated with this wave, mainly south of 10°N. A third wave is in the far eastern Atlantic and carries with it a mid level circulation. This wave if moving westward at 10kts and has convection firing within the ITCZ.




Fig. 3 - Auto-updating IR satellite image of the Central Atlantic Basin.



At the surface, the Bermuda/Azores high pressure stretches across a good portion of the tropical Atlantic at this time with 10-20kt trades south of 20°N. A cold front is also moving off the Northeast Coast with 25-30kt winds from the south out ahead of it.

In the upper levels a broad upper trough extends from the Southeast Coast of the US to 50°W with a trough axis that dips down into the eastern Caribbean Sea. An upper level low pressure embedded in this trough is centered around 27°N, 60°W. Another upper trogh axis lies just west of the Canary Islands and breaks the ridge axis between two upper level high pressure areas in the deep tropics. One upper level high pressure stretches across the tropical Atlantic and is centered at 10°N, 40°W. Another upper high is centered along the African Coast.


Fig. 4 - Current Western Atlantic Basin surface analysis.


Any and all comments are welcome!

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About sullivanweather

Thomas is an avid weather enthusiast, landscaper and organic gardener. This blog is dedicated to Northeast and tropical weather forecasting. Enjoy!

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