Northeast Weather Blog

Warming trend/Severe possibilities.

By: sullivanweather, 5:08 PM GMT on May 29, 2008

My apologies for not being around the last several days. I was taking full advantage of the extended holiday weekend and the great weather that followed to get done as much garden work as I could. Later today I'll be working on the warm-season crops blog to get that posted by this evening. That blog will remain up until the evening of June 1st when this blog will start to shift its focus to the tropics. Throughout the tropical season, aside from the monthly reports and any possible severe weather events, the Northeast forecasts will be more generalized in favor of the tropical scene. Since I'm usually up during the overnight come tropical season, "Tropical Nightshift" is what the blog title will be during this time with the Northeast weather du jour taking the title of the blog during the dayshifters timeframe.



Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings

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Regional Forecast


Synopsis - Issued 5/29 - 1:15pm


An upper disturbance rotating around the polar vortex over the Davis Strait will drop a backdoor cold front across northern Maine this afternoon bringing scattered showers and a reinforcing shot of chilly air. Otherwise, the remainder of the Northeast will see rather pleasant conditions with seasonable afternoon highs despite a frosty start for the interior. Transient high pressure slides over the region tonight and offshore Friday allowing for a warm frontal boundary to march northeastwards, bringing a much warmer, moister airmass to the Northeast. With this airmass in place, the stage will be set for rain and thunderstorms Friday night into Saturday as a potent shortwave trough moves through. Unsettled weather will hang tough over the weekend before clearing out by the start of next week as surface high pressure builds down from Canada. The next system of consequence appears to move in on Wednesday bringing renewed chances for showers and thunderstorms.



Short-term - Issued 5/29 - 1:15pm


Mostly sunny skies and seasonable temperatures will greet most Northeasterners this afternoon with the exception being those across northern Maine where clouds and scattered showers in association with a shortwave disturbance will move through. With high pressure building in from the west and a 1000mb low situated over the Canadian Maritimes rather blustery conditions will exist over New England as well where Red Flag Warnings and Fire Weather Watches are posted. The combination of dry Canadian air and gusty northwesterly winds are making for enhanced brushfire risk, especially since rainfall has been less than half of average over much of New England over the last 4-6 weeks. High today will climb into the 50's and lower 60's over northern New York and New England, closer to the upper disturbance. Elsewhere across the interior high temperatures should have no trouble making it into the mid to upper 60's with a few valley locales breaking 70 degrees. Along the coastal plain temperatures should reach into the lower 70's. Winds over New England will be out of the northwest at 15-25mph with higher gusts. Further west, winds will be around 10mph and slackening as high pressure builds in. The high will move overhead tonight making for another night of ideal radiational cooling conditions. With the warming airmass aloft, lows tonight will be 5-10 degrees warmer than this morning.

The high pressure will move offshore on Friday as a warm front moves in from the southwest bringing a warmer, more humid airmass across the region. High clouds will increase in coverage during the morning hours, especially across the north, with a lowering and thickening of the deck throughout the day. By afternoon some isentropic lift generated showers will develop across northern New York, Vermont and New Hampshire. Across the southern half of the region clouds will be more sparse and sunshine more prevalent. Highs will range from the upper 70's to low 80's across the southern half of Pennsylvania and along the coastal plain to the lower to mid 70's over northern Pennsylvania, the southern-tier of New York and southern New England. Further north where clouds and showers are present high will remain in the 60's. Low-level southerly flow increases Friday night ahead of an approaching shortwave over the Great Lakes region. This will sharpen the boundary layer thermal gradient across the region and give rise to showers and thunderstorms. The region will also find itself under the entrance region of a 100kt upper level jet streak and decent shear between the 850-500mb level. This should sustain convective development throughout the nighttime hours and could lead to heavy amounts of rain. The focus for these storms will be from the northern half of Pennsylvania, into central New York and western New England. Further north over Maine scattered showers will fall in association with the warm front. Lows will only drop into the 60's across the southern half of the region as increasing cloud cover and moisture will hold temperatures up. The northern half of the region will see lows fall back into the 50's with upper 40's across the higher terrain.


Mid-term - Issued 5/29 - 1:15pm


Lots of uncertainty extends into the forecast for Saturday. A few big questions remain for the potential for a severe weather outbreak across the region. Several ingredients are present, and others will be conditional, depending on the evolution of Friday night's MCS. The pluses will be plenty of moisture present, with dewpoints rising into the 60's across the southern half of the region and precipitable water values approaching 150% of normal and a tightening thermal gradient across the region as a surface cold front will approach from the northwest. Shear will be marginable with 850-500mb speed shear of only 20-30kts and the jet streak over the region will be slightly weaker than Friday night, although the Northeast will still find itself under the favorable entrance region. Cloud cover will be perhaps the most important factor in whether or not the region sees and widespread severe weather event or isolated reports of severe weather. If the sun manages to break through the cloud debris from Friday night’s convection much greater instability will be present. SREF CAPE values for Saturday afternoon range from 1,000-2,000 J/kg from eastern Pennsylvania over to southern New England, however, there remains quite a spread in the model members, likely due to the potential cloud cover. The cold front will move offshore Saturday night but scattered showers will remain with moist cyclonic flow over the region. Trough axis remains over the region on Sunday with a continuation of partly to mostly cloudy skies and scattered showers or thundershowers as pockets of energy through the region. Partly cloudy skies remain for Sunday night with seasonable overnight temperatures. A few scattered showers may be found across the higher terrain of northern New England.

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Garden Series

Blog 1: Planning the Garden
Blog 2: Cool season crops
Blog 3: Companion gardening
Blog 4: Container gardening


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Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar


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Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.



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May Daily Weather Statistics

May 1st - 56°F/25°F...0.12"...30%
May 2nd - 48°F/45°F...0.05"....0%
May 3rd - 48°F/43°F...0.16"....0%
May 4th - 64°F/45°F...0.07"...60%
May 5th - 67°F/35°F...0.00"...75%
May 6th - 70°F/36°F...Trace"...90%
May 7th - 75°F/39°F....0.00"...80%
May 8th - 68°F/48°F....0.04"...25%
May 9th - 48°F/42°F....0.62"....0%
May 10th - 61°F/39°F...0.00"...60%
May 11th - 62°F/36°F...0.00"...40%
May 12th - 54°F/39°F...Trace...20%
May 13th - 70°F/38°F...0.00"...90%
May 14th - 73°F/37°F...0.01"...95%
May 15th - 65°F/48°F...0.26"...40%
May 16th - 49°F/45°F...1.03"....0%
May 17th - 65°F/41°F...0.08"...40%
May 18th - 53°F/43°F...0.11"...25%
May 19th - 49°F/36°F...0.09"...10% (Snow - Trace)
May 20th - 53°F/28°F...Trace...20%
May 21st - 54°F/41°F...0.28"...25%
May 22nd - 51°F/43°F...0.22"...30% (Snow - Trace)
May 23rd - 60°F/45°F...Trace...25%
May 24th - 64°F/42°F...0.01"...80%
May 25th - 72°F/39°F...0.00"...95%
May 26th - 79°F/43°F...0.03"...70%
May 27th - 79°F/48°F...Trace...60%
May 28th - 61°F/39°F...0.00"..100%

Updated: 5:25 PM GMT on May 29, 2008

Permalink

Severe thunderstorms this afternoon

By: sullivanweather, 5:11 PM GMT on May 27, 2008

Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings

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Regional Forecast


Short-term - Issued 5/27 - 1:10pm


A surface cold front moving into a warm humid airmass across the Northeast will give rise to showers and thunderstorms, some of which could approach severe limits. Plenty of ingredients are currently coming together for a widespread severe thunderstorm outbreak, especially from eastern Pennsylvania across to southern New England. Temperatures have climbed into the upper 70's to low 80's with dewpoints in the 60's leading to CAPE values of 1,000-2,000J/kg. LI's range from -2 to -5C and low-level lapse rates range from 7-9C/km so there's plenty of instability present. Initial development has already occurred with individual cells of thunderstorms. Good speed shear, 35-50kts, will support organization of thunderstorms in line segments as the afternoon progresses. Strong winds aloft will easily make for severe wind gusts in the storms that do develop, up to 70mph. Individual cells ahead of the line segments may also contain large hail as shear should be strong enough to support persistent updrafts and CAPE extending into the -10C layer of the atmosphere. Freezing levels are fairly high, but hail could grow big enough to survive the trip down to the surface. Storms should be on the wane by evening with the loss of heating and the cold front moving south of the region/offshore.


Fig.1 - Surface based CAPE


Fig.2 - Low-level lapse rates


Fig.3 - Bulk shear


Skies will clear tonight from north to south as a very chilly airmass replaces the warm humid one currently over the Northeast. Freeze warnings are issued for the Adirondacks where the growing season has recently began. Frost advisories have also been issued across the Tug Hill Plateau, north-central Pennsylvania and southwestern New York. Lows in these areas will fall back into the 30’s. Elsewhere across the interior temperatures will fall back to the 40’s with low 50’s along the coastal plain.


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Garden Series

Blog 1: Planning the Garden
Blog 2: Cool season crops
Blog 3: Companion gardening
Blog 4: Container gardening


__________________________________________________________



Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar


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Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.



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May Daily Weather Statistics

May 1st - 56°F/25°F...0.12"...30%
May 2nd - 48°F/45°F...0.05"....0%
May 3rd - 48°F/43°F...0.16"....0%
May 4th - 64°F/45°F...0.07"...60%
May 5th - 67°F/35°F...0.00"...75%
May 6th - 70°F/36°F...Trace"...90%
May 7th - 75°F/39°F....0.00"...80%
May 8th - 68°F/48°F....0.04"...25%
May 9th - 48°F/42°F....0.62"....0%
May 10th - 61°F/39°F...0.00"...60%
May 11th - 62°F/36°F...0.00"...40%
May 12th - 54°F/39°F...Trace...20%
May 13th - 70°F/38°F...0.00"...90%
May 14th - 73°F/37°F...0.01"...95%
May 15th - 65°F/48°F...0.26"...40%
May 16th - 49°F/45°F...1.03"....0%
May 17th - 65°F/41°F...0.08"...40%
May 18th - 53°F/43°F...0.11"...25%
May 19th - 49°F/36°F...0.09"...10% (Snow - Trace)
May 20th - 53°F/28°F...Trace...20%
May 21st - 54°F/41°F...0.28"...25%
May 22nd - 51°F/43°F...0.22"...30% (Snow - Trace)
May 23rd - 60°F/45°F...Trace...25%
May 24th - 64°F/42°F...0.01"...80%
May 25th - 72°F/39°F...0.00"...95%
May 26th - 79°F/43°F...0.03"...70%
May 27th - 79°F/48°F...Trace...60%
May 28th - 61°F/39°F...0.00"..100%

Updated: 3:22 PM GMT on May 29, 2008

Permalink

Memorial Day Weekend forecast

By: sullivanweather, 12:33 PM GMT on May 23, 2008



Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings

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Regional Forecast


Synopsis - Issued 5/23 - 8:30am


Despite an improvement to the weather this Friday, the Northeast will be under the influence of the pesky upper level disturbance that has plagued the region all week for at least one more day. Surface high pressure will build down from Canada Saturday, bringing fair weather for the holiday weekend. A decent Memorial Day is shaping up for much of the region, however, a cold front will dip into northern New York and New England which could fire up some convection. This front will sag south of the region on Tuesday with a return to below normal temperatures for midweek. Warmth and humidity will return by next Friday into next weekend as a warm front approaches from the Southwest and high pressure moves offshore.



Short-term - Issued 5/23 - 8:30am



Cool cyclonic flow over the Northeast will keep mostly cloudy skies over the region this afternoon with a chance for showers over northern New England, closest to the core of the upper level low pressure system. Temperatures will remain some 5 degrees or so below normal with highs reaching into the 60's for most areas with 50's across the higher terrain of New York and New England. Winds will be out of the northwest around 10mph but could be locally higher, especially in any showers that pop. Skies will clear tonight and winds will diminish making for ideal radiational cooling conditions away from northern New England. Lows will drop into the lower 40's across much of the interior, however, the normally colder locations could find their lows fall into the mid 30's leaving the door open for the possibility of frost. Along the coast temperatures will drop into the mid 40's to low 50's. Clouds and even a few showers will hang tough over northern Maine. Here lows will be held up by those clouds, mainly in the low to mid 40's.

A noticeable improvement in the weather will be seen on Saturday as surface high pressure builds down from Canada and heights build aloft. This increase in anti-cyclonic flow and subsidence should make for a mostly sunny sky with temperatures rising close to normal levels for late May. Highs should crack 70°F across the southerntier of Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey and the New York City metro area. Elsewhere across the region low to mid 60's should do, however, northern Maine may still find itself under the periphery of the upper level low, keeping clouds and cooler temperatures in the upper 50's over the area. Another clear and calm night Saturday night will make for ideal radiational cooling once again, however, with a warming airmass over the region frost will not be an issue as most places will remain above 40 degrees. Lows will range from the low to mid 50's along the coastal plain with low to mid 40's across the interior.



Mid-term - Issued 5/23 - 8:30am


Heights builds further on Sunday as the surface high pressure slips south of the region allowing for a return flow of warming southerly winds to envelop the region. Skies will be mostly sunny with temperatures rising into the upper 60's to mid 70's region-wide. Increasing heat and humidity will set the stage for the chance for convection by Memorial Day across the northern half of the region as a strong cold front impinges on the region from Canada. Ahead of this front temperatures will rise into the upper 70's and maybe even crack 80 degrees as 850mb temperatures rise to 15°C and 1000-500mb thicknesses approach 570dm. Only inhibiting factor to allowing temperature from rising further will be increasing clouds from the west, likely convective debris from the previous days' storms over the Upper Midwest. The cold front will continue its southward push during the overnight hours Monday night into Tuesday morning with convection ahead of it and scattered showers in its wake. Much colder air will lie behind this front with temperatures on Tuesday likely 15-20 degrees cooler than Memorial Day. High pressure building in behind the front should clear the skies and allow for another chilly time of it Tuesday night.

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Garden Series

Blog 1: Planning the Garden
Blog 2: Cool season crops
Blog 3: Companion gardening
Blog 4: Container gardening


__________________________________________________________



Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar


___________________________________________________________

Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.



___________________________________________________________




May Daily Weather Statistics

May 1st - 56°F/25°F...0.12"...30%
May 2nd - 48°F/45°F...0.05"....0%
May 3rd - 48°F/43°F...0.16"....0%
May 4th - 64°F/45°F...0.07"...60%
May 5th - 67°F/35°F...0.00"...75%
May 6th - 70°F/36°F...Trace"...90%
May 7th - 75°F/39°F....0.00"...80%
May 8th - 68°F/48°F....0.04"...25%
May 9th - 48°F/42°F....0.62"....0%
May 10th - 61°F/39°F...0.00"...60%
May 11th - 62°F/36°F...0.00"...40%
May 12th - 54°F/39°F...Trace...20%
May 13th - 70°F/38°F...0.00"...90%
May 14th - 73°F/37°F...0.01"...95%
May 15th - 65°F/48°F...0.26"...40%
May 16th - 49°F/45°F...1.03"....0%
May 17th - 65°F/41°F...0.08"...40%
May 18th - 53°F/43°F...0.11"...25%
May 19th - 49°F/36°F...0.09"...10% (Snow - Trace)
May 20th - 53°F/28°F...Trace...20%
May 21st - 54°F/41°F...0.28"...25%
May 22nd - 51°F/43°F...0.22"...30% (Snow - Trace)
May 23rd - 60°F/45°F...Trace...25%
May 24th - 64°F/42°F...0.01"...80%
May 25th - 72°F/39°F...0.00"...95%

Updated: 3:41 PM GMT on May 26, 2008

Permalink

April in review

By: sullivanweather, 12:02 PM GMT on May 18, 2008

April in review


Local weather stats


April Daily Weather Statistics


April 1st - 64°F/41°F....0.46"...25%...0.0"...(>1")
April 2nd - 41°F/27°F....0.01"...90%...0.1"...(>1")
April 3rd - 48°F/16°F....0.00"...80%...0.0"...(>1")
April 4th - 41°F/31°F....0.67"...0%....1.8"...(2")
April 5th - 46°F/37°F....0.08"...30%...0.0"...(>1")
April 6th - 46°F/36°F....0.00"...20%...0.0"...(Trace)
April 7th - 49°F/34°F....0.01"...30%...0.0"...(Trace)
April 8th - 59°F/29°F....0.00"...50%...0.0"...(0")
April 9th - 61°F/31°F....0.00"...90%...0.0"...(0")
April 10th - 64°F/43°F...0.00"...100%..0.0"...(0")
April 11th - 55°F/43°F...0.32"...5%....0.0"...(0")
April 12th - 70°F/42°F...0.44"...70%...0.0"...(0")
April 13th - 46°F/32°F...0.00"...30%...0.0"...(0")
April 14th - 49°F/27°F...0.00"...50%...0.0"...(0")
April 15th - 55°F/26°F...0.00"...95%...0.0"...(0")
April 16th - 65°F/25°F...0.00"..100%...0.0"...(0")
April 17th - 75°F/31°F...0.00"..100%...0.0"...(0")
April 18th - 83°F/40°F...0.00"..100%...0.0"...(0")
April 19th - 81°F/48°F...0.00"...95%...0.0"...(0")
April 20th - 61°F/47°F...0.00"...10%...0.0"...(0")
April 21st - 70°F/45°F...0.00"...95%...0.0"...(0")
April 22nd - 72°F/38°F...0.00"...90%...0.0"...(0")
April 23rd - 75°F/44°F...0.04"...80%...0.0"...(0")
April 24th - 71°F/46°F...Trace...90%...0.0"...(0")
April 25th - 74°F/39°F...0.00"...60%...0.0"...(0")
April 26th - 64°F/52°F...0.09"...40%...0.0"...(0")
April 27th - 63°F/45°F...0.06"...20%...0.0"...(0")
April 28th - 50°F/42°F...1.19"....0%...0.0"...(0")
April 29th - 48°F/36°F...0.08"...40%...0.0"...(0")
April 30th - 47°F/29°F...0.00"...50%...0.0"...(0")




April '08 average high - 59.8°F
April normal average high - 55.3°F
April high temperature departure - 4.5°F above normal

April '08 average low - 36.7°F
April normal average low - 33.7°F
April low temp departure - 3°F above normal

April '08 mean temperature - 48.3°F
April normal mean temperature - 44.5°F
April mean temp departure - 3.8°F above normal




April '08 precipitation - 3.45"
April '08 precipitation days - 13
April '08 measurable precipitation days - 12

April '08 snowfall - 1.9"
April '08 snowfall days - 2
April '08 measurable snowfall days - 2


Northeast region

April began with a strong cold front ready to impinge on the Northeast which would usher in a chilly airmass in its wake. The southerly flow out ahead of this front would bring my local area the first 60°F day since last November and make for unstable enough conditions for a line of low-topped convection to cross the region. High pressure to build in behind the front would give the Northeast its coldest night of the month of April with lows ranging from the teens and 20's region-wide with a few readings going down to the single digits both above and below zero across the higher terrain of northern New York and New England. This chilly airmass would set the stage for a round of wintry precipitation during the overnight of the 3rd, morning of the 4th that would deposit several inches of snowfall from northern Pennsylvania across to central New York then northeastwards into New England. This wave of low pressure would move offshore the evening of the 4th leaving behind a slow moving cold front to drape over the coastal areas into the 5th. This stalled frontal boundary would provide a lane for the next wave of low pressure to ride up the morning of the 6th, which would mainly affect coastal regions south of southern New England. Following the coastal system would be a 2 day period of fair weather with high pressure dominating the sensible weather.

Over the next two plus week a pattern change will set up over the Northeast. First, a weakening trough would move through he region on the 9th bringing showers, mainly confined to western regions. Thereafter a deep layer ridge would build along the East Coast of North America from Florida to Canada that would bring a 2 week period of fair weather and much warmer than normal temperatures. Temperature departures during this timeframe would range from 5 to 12 degree above normal. Lows would average just a few degrees above normal, however, highs would attain 15 to 25 degrees above normal during the height of the warm spell. This ridge would begin to break down and move into the western Atlantic around the 23rd of the month as a weak cold front manages to break through, bringing many areas of the region its first measurable rainfall for 13 days.

The last week of the month would feature an increasingly wet and cloudy pattern. Several waves of low pressure would move through the region bringing rain beginning on the 25th. In fact, the storm to move through on the 28-30th would be a big time rain producer for the state of Maine where a significant snowpack still in place from record winter snowfall. Two to four inches of rain combined with snowmelt would contribute to record flooding, notably along the St. John River where the flood crest would reach 30.14' in Fort Kent.


Overall, the Northeast experienced its 6th warmest April on record and its 46th wettest April on record.


National review



The contiguous United States experienced its 27th coolest April on record. Much above normal temperatures were seen over the Northeast region, however, much of the rest of the nation saw below normal temperatures with Washington State having its 2nd coldest April on record and Oregon having its 5th coldest April on record.




Precipitation across the country as a whole was near average. The upper Midwest saw much above average precipitation for the month of April, their 7th wettest April on record. The desert southwest and Great Basin region saw much below normal precipitation. California and Nevada combined had their 5th driest April on record with the four corner states having their 8th driest April on record.


Global review




Globally, the month of April combined land and sea-surface temperature ranked as the 13th warmest on record, 0.41°C (0.74°F) above the long term mean. Land temperatures ranked as the 12th warmest on record for April, 0.64°C (1.12°F) above the long term mean. The ENSO cold episode weakened further during the month of April with monthly averaged sea-surface temperatures in the nino 3.4 region of 0.75°C below normal, a warming of 0.28°C from the month of March.


Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings

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Regional Forecast


Synopsis - Issued 5/18 - 8:00am


Deep upper trough will take up residence over the Northeast the next 4-5 days with several disturbances rotating around it keeping unsettled weather and below normal temperatures over the region. This trough will finally lift towards the Canadian Maritimes by weeks' end with building heights and temperatures returning to seasonable levels by Memorial Day weekend.


Short-term - Issued 5/18 - 8:00am


An upper disturbance rounding the base of a 500mb cutoff over the Great Lakes will induce the development of a surface low pressure in the Ohio Valley that will move across the Northeast on Sunday and Sunday night bringing showers to much of the region. Currently, a weakening trough of low pressure is moving across New England with mainly mid level clouds and a few sprinkles. This trough will pull offshore leaving clearing skies in its wake for eastern New England. Further west, mostly clear skies are in place over eastern Pennsylvania and New York early this morning but will not last as cloud cover is already moving into western sections in response to the approaching low pressure taking shape over the Ohio Valley. These clouds and accompanying showers will quickly spread eastwards as the day progresses, reaching the New York-New England border by afternoon. Rapidly falling heights and cold pool moving in aloft will create some elevated instability over southeastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey which could lead to a rumble or two of thunder. Low freezing levels could allow for small hail to accompany any stronger convection that manages to develop. Temperatures will climb into the 60's along the coastal plain and much of the lower elevations of New England. Across the remainder of New York and Pennsylvania highs should hold in the 50's with clouds and precipitation moving in. Winds will be southerly ahead of the low around 5-10mph shifting to the west after its passage.

As the low continues its east-northeastward trek tonight showers will overspread New England with precipitation tapering, for the most part, over New York and Pennsylvania. Behind the lows' accompanying cold front temperatures at 850mb will fall below 0°C, even dropping to -4°C towards the lakes which could induce a weak lake response. With synoptic moisture and lake moisture in play widely scattered showers will persist behind the front which may even mix with snow over the higher terrain of Pennsylvania and eventually New York. Lows will fall into the 30's across the interior with 40's along the coastal plain. Winds will be from the west-northwest at 5-10mph.

Impressive cold pool aloft moves overhead on Monday with temperatures at the 850mb level from 0°C to -4°C, 700mb -10°C to -12°C and 500mb from -22°C to -28°C!! Any sun that manages to break out during the morning hours will quickly give way to clouds and eventually showers as lapse rates steeping with diurnal heating. Showers will have a convective nature to them and may easily produce hail and/or graupel. Elevations over 2500' may even see snow mix in with any heavier showers that develop. High temperatures will be very chilly, on the order of 20 degrees below normal or greater. Along the coastal plain 50's will do, however across inland sections temperatures may very well remain in the 40's with upper 30's even over the higher terrain. With the loss of daytime heating clouds will break up, but not entirely disperse, during Monday evening. Scattered showers will remain over northern New York and New England where orographics come into play. Elsewhere should remain precipitation-free, although an eye will have to be kept on a shortwave passing south of the region. Any northward shift in the track of this feature could bring showers to southern Pennsylvania and New Jersey. Once again, overnight lows will range from the 30's and 40's from north to south.


Mid-term - Issued 5/18 - 8:00am


Several shortwave troughs will round the base of the 500mb cutoff over the Northeast Kingdom in the Tuesday through Thursday timeframe bringing clouds and showers with continued below normal temperatures. Timing these systems this far out is nearly impossible so expect showers at any time during this period with a higher prevalence of them during the afternoon hours with diurnal heating.



Long-term - Issued 5/18 - 8:00am


Upper trough will slowly begin to fill and lift out towards the northeast Friday and Saturday as ridging builds in from the west. Rex block which develops midweek over the central part of the country adds much uncertainty to the forecast in the long term. Evolution of this ridge will have to be monitored for if it gets pinched off by Pacific energy undercutting it could leave the Northeast in a northerly to northeasterly flow next weekend that could keep cooler than normal temperatures over the region as well as a marine layer along the coast. If the ridge moves eastward in one piece then a nice warm up will occur with temperatures returning to seasonable levels, perhaps a few degrees above normal.



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Garden Series

Blog 1: Planning the Garden
Blog 2: Cool season crops
Blog 3: Companion gardening
Blog 4: Container gardening


__________________________________________________________



Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar


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Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.

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Fillipini's Pond conditions (Lake across street)

11/6: 42°F
11/9: 37°F
11/11: 33°F - 1st morning with grease ice on lake.
11/17: 33°F
11/22: 34°F
11/24: 32°F - patchy ice on lake this morning
11/25: 32°F - lake iced over completely, melting along the shores during the afternoon.
12/1: Patchy ice has been on the lake all week. Lake should freeeze over completely tonight.
12/3: Lake is frozen over and covered with snow.

4/4: Lake is beginning to thaw from the shores inward
4/6: Lake is now completely unfrozen.

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May Daily Weather Statistics

May 1st - 56°F/25°F...0.12"...30%
May 2nd - 48°F/45°F...0.05"....0%
May 3rd - 48°F/43°F...0.16"....0%
May 4th - 64°F/45°F...0.07"...60%
May 5th - 67°F/35°F...0.00"...75%
May 6th - 70°F/36°F...Trace"...90%
May 7th - 75°F/39°F....0.00"...80%
May 8th - 68°F/48°F....0.04"...25%
May 9th - 48°F/42°F....0.62"....0%
May 10th - 61°F/39°F...0.00"...60%
May 11th - 62°F/36°F...0.00"...40%
May 12th - 54°F/39°F...Trace...20%
May 13th - 70°F/38°F...0.00"...90%
May 14th - 73°F/37°F...0.01"...95%
May 15th - 65°F/48°F...0.26"...40%
May 16th - 49°F/45°F...1.03"....0%
May 17th - 65°F/41°F...0.08"...40%
May 18th - 53°F/43°F...0.11"...25%
May 19th - 49°F/36°F...0.09"...10% (Snow - Trace)
May 20th - 53°F/28°F...Trace...20%
May 21st - 54°F/41°F...0.28"...25%

Updated: 3:26 PM GMT on May 22, 2008

Permalink

Rain for Friday/Storms Saturday with possible hail

By: sullivanweather, 8:39 AM GMT on May 16, 2008


I'll likely have my next addition to the garden series by the middle of next week. The focus will be on warm season crops which really hasn't been possible to start due to the colder than normal weather which would put a real damper on any warm season crops planted. I've seen several messages in other blogs about certain warm season crops being lost due to the chilly weather and cold soil, so I'd rather put that blog on the back burner and focus on the upcoming rain event Friday and possibility for hail on Saturday. I should also have out my April in review blog by Monday.


Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings

------


Regional Forecast


Synopsis - Issued 5/16 - 4:30am


A low pressure system will take a track from the central Appalachians to offshore the Delmarva Peninsula on Friday bringing steady rainfall across the southern half of the Northeast. A northern stream trough will dip down from the Great Lakes Saturday which will be the first in a series of disturbances that will keep temperatures below normal with unsettled weather through the middle of next week. Thereafter the positive PNA pattern will break down resulting in building heights across the eastern half of the country along with warming temperatures.


Short-term - Issued 4/16 - 4:30am



A rather active short-term period is in store for the southern half of the region as surface low pressure in the southern stream will skirt by just south of the Mason-Dixon line. Steady rain has already broken out across much of the Pennsylvania Commonwealth extending eastwards into New Jersey as of 3:30am. This rain will continue its east-northeastwards march across the southern half of the region reaching into south-central/southeastern New York by daybreak and southern New England before noon. In addition to the rain, a raw easterly wind, low clouds and fog will plague the region. Temperatures will average 10-15 degrees below normal with the dreary conditions. This will translate to highs in the low to mid 50's with upper 40's across the higher terrain. Rainfall amounts will range from a quarter to half an inch. Further northwards it should remain precipitation-free, although a shield of clouds will overspread much of northern New York, Vermont, New Hampshire and the southern half of Maine. The northern half of Maine may escape this system all together with mostly sunny skies and temperatures close to normal levels for mid May. The rain with this first system will end during the late afternoon and evening hours from west to east as the storm pulls out to sea. Skies will clear some and locally dense patchy fog will form, especially in low lying areas. Lows will range from the mid to upper 30's across the north with 40's across the remainder of the interior. Along the coastal plain lows should remain in the low 50's.

With Friday's low pressure system over the western Atlantic much of the Northeast should squeak out a decent day on Saturday. Morning low clouds will disperse with sunshine breaking out by afternoon. However, this sunshine may help to destabilize the atmosphere ahead of a sharp cold front moving down from the Great Lakes region. This frontal boundary will reach western New York and Pennsylvania by early afternoon with a line of showers and thundershowers developing along it. Freezing levels will range from 5,000-7,000agl so small hail is a distinct possibility. Strong winds shouldn’t be much of a factor as winds aloft won’t be terribly strong, although a few gusts up to 50kts cannot be ruled out in stronger cells. Precipitation will remain confined west of the New York/New England border during the day on Saturday with a steady weakening of any convection that manages to pop during the evening hours as diurnal heating is lost. Scattered showers will continue to move across the region overnight Saturday as spokes of shortwave energy rotate around the 500mb cutoff centered over Lake Huron. Highs during the day Saturday should warm into the 60’s and 70’s. The warmer readings will be realized if clouds are able to part earlier during the morning hours. Overnight lows will fall back into the 40’s and 50’s.



___________________________________________________________


Garden Series

Blog 1: Planning the Garden
Blog 2: Cool season crops
Blog 3: Companion gardening
Blog 4: Container gardening


__________________________________________________________

Soil moisture 0-200cm
Soil moisture 0-200cm

Soil temperature 0-10cm
Soil temperature 0-10cm

Soil temperature 10-40cm
Soil temperature 10-40cm


Kelvin temperature scale
273.15°K = 0°C


___________________________________________________________

Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar


___________________________________________________________

Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.

---------------------------


Fillipini's Pond conditions (Lake across street)

11/6: 42°F
11/9: 37°F
11/11: 33°F - 1st morning with grease ice on lake.
11/17: 33°F
11/22: 34°F
11/24: 32°F - patchy ice on lake this morning
11/25: 32°F - lake iced over completely, melting along the shores during the afternoon.
12/1: Patchy ice has been on the lake all week. Lake should freeeze over completely tonight.
12/3: Lake is frozen over and covered with snow.

4/4: Lake is beginning to thaw from the shores inward
4/6: Lake is now completely unfrozen.

___________________________________________________________




May Daily Weather Statistics

May 1st - 56°F/25°F...0.12"...30%
May 2nd - 48°F/45°F...0.05"....0%
May 3rd - 48°F/43°F...0.16"....0%
May 4th - 64°F/45°F...0.07"...60%
May 5th - 67°F/35°F...0.00"...75%
May 6th - 70°F/36°F...Trace"...90%
May 7th - 75°F/39°F....0.00"...80%
May 8th - 68°F/48°F....0.04"...25%
May 9th - 48°F/42°F....0.62"....0%
May 10th - 61°F/39°F...0.00"...60%
May 11th - 62°F/36°F...0.00"...40%
May 12th - 54°F/39°F...Trace...20%
May 13th - 70°F/38°F...0.00"...90%
May 14th - 73°F/37°F...0.01"...95%
May 15th - 65°F/48°F...0.26"...40%
May 16th - 49°F/45°F...1.03"....0%

Updated: 11:56 AM GMT on May 18, 2008

Permalink

Tranquil for now - Another chilly weekend

By: sullivanweather, 12:42 PM GMT on May 13, 2008

Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings

------


Regional Forecast


Synopsis - Issued 5/13 - 8:40am


A narrow deep layer ridge axis will build over the Northeast the next 36-48 hours allowing for tranquil conditions area-wide. A cold front will cross the region Wednesday night and Thursday bringing with it some scattered light showers. A brief break in the precipitation will occur after the passage of this front before another system from the southern stream affects the southern half of the region Friday. Thereafter a deep trough will move over the Great Lakes/Northeast to round out the weekend into early next week bringing unsettled weather and much below normal temperatures.


Short-term - Issued 5/13 - 8:40am


The late season nor'easter that has brought rain and high winds over the southern half of the region and even the latest snowfall on record across central Pennsylvania has moved out to sea leaving behind clearing skies and building heights which will allow for temperatures to approach seasonable levels both today and Wednesday. Most of the Northeast has cleared out at the time of this writing with the exception being eastern New England where skies should clear by this afternoon. With the region situated between the offshore low pressure and the surface ridge building from the west, a dry northerly flow will exist for much of the day. These winds could get quite gusty over New England where fire weather watches are posted. Precipitation has been between 30-70% of normal since the beginning of April over much of New England and vegetation has yet to really grow in across the north. Given the winds and low humidity one should be vigilant of any outdoor burning or just put it off all together. Tides are still running above normal from the onshore flow over the last couple days with water still piled up along the coast and inlets. Minor coastal flooding is possible at time of the next two high tide cycles along the Jersey shore, Long Island and southern New England. Temperatures should climb into the 60's for most areas today. However, the coastal plain of southern New Jersey, valleys of southern Pennsylvania and valleys along the US-Canadian border could see a few readings in the low 70's.

Winds will die off tonight as high pressure moves overhead with starlit skies allowing for ideal radiational cooling conditions. A few areas of patchy frost may develop after midnight across some of the normally colder locales. Lows will drop into the 40's for much of the interior except for those colder valley locations. 50's can be expected along the coastal plain from New Jersey up to southern New England.

There will be a great start to the day on Wednesday with mostly sunny skies and rapidly warming temperatures. High clouds will move into western sections by afternoon with a few showers breaking out by evening as the next trough approaches from the Great Lakes. Elsewhere across the region mostly sunny skies will prevail with temperatures several degrees warmer than today's readings as the flow turns southerly with the surface ridge moving offshore. These showers will move into the remainder of New York, Pennsylvania, New Jersey and western New England Wednesday night as the trough advances into the region. Most of the energy and dynamics with this system will slide by to the north of the region into Ontario making the shower activity light and scattered. Cloud cover over the region will keep overnight lows in the 50's for most. The exceptions will be over northern New England where lows will drop into the 40's. Western New York state will likely fall into the 40's as well as skies slowly clear after midnight with the passage of the front.


Mid-term - Issued 5/13 - 8:40am


Thursday will feature showers associated with the aforementioned front moving into New England as skies clear across New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania. Temperatures will remain at seasonable levels. The next system of concern will already be taking shape over the mid-Mississippi Valley region, gathering moisture from the Gulf of Mexico before moving northeastwards towards the Northeast by Friday. Much of the sensible weather with this system will affect mainly the southern half of the region as a steady stratiform rainfall. This will be a fast moving storm, pushing offshore the Delmarva/Jersey coast by Friday night with all precipitation likely ending during the evening hours. By Saturday a northern stream trough will dip into the region bringing mostly cloudy skies, scattered showers and a return to cooler than normal temperatures.



Long-term - Issued 5/13 - 8:40am


The second half of the weekend into early next week will feature unsettled weather and much below normal temperatures as the polar vortex will move to an anomalous southward position over the Great Lakes/St.Lawrence Valley. Several pieces of short wave energy will pinwheel around this vortex throughout the long term period making for rather nasty weather for mid to late May. Latest GFS progs has temperatures at 850mb falling below 0°C region wide and 500mb thicknesses falling below 540dm. It wouldn't be surprising to see some snow showers across the higher terrain of northern New York and New England during the overnight hours with this anomalously cold airmass overhead. Supportive of this cold pattern will be a highly positive PNA, a negative NAO and the MJO moving into phase 8 leading to East Coast troughiness.




___________________________________________________________


Garden Series

Blog 1: Planning the Garden
Blog 2: Cool season crops
Blog 3: Companion gardening
Blog 4: Container gardening


__________________________________________________________

Soil moisture 0-200cm
Soil moisture 0-200cm

Soil temperature 0-10cm
Soil temperature 0-10cm

Soil temperature 10-40cm
Soil temperature 10-40cm


Kelvin temperature scale
273.15°K = 0°C


___________________________________________________________

Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar


___________________________________________________________

Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.

---------------------------


Fillipini's Pond conditions (Lake across street)

11/6: 42°F
11/9: 37°F
11/11: 33°F - 1st morning with grease ice on lake.
11/17: 33°F
11/22: 34°F
11/24: 32°F - patchy ice on lake this morning
11/25: 32°F - lake iced over completely, melting along the shores during the afternoon.
12/1: Patchy ice has been on the lake all week. Lake should freeeze over completely tonight.
12/3: Lake is frozen over and covered with snow.

4/4: Lake is beginning to thaw from the shores inward
4/6: Lake is now completely unfrozen.

___________________________________________________________




May Daily Weather Statistics

May 1st - 56°F/25°F...0.12"...30%
May 2nd - 48°F/45°F...0.05"....0%
May 3rd - 48°F/43°F...0.16"....0%
May 4th - 64°F/45°F...0.07"...60%
May 5th - 67°F/35°F...0.00"...75%
May 6th - 70°F/36°F...Trace"...90%
May 7th - 75°F/39°F....0.00"...80%
May 8th - 68°F/48°F....0.04"...25%
May 9th - 48°F/42°F....0.62"....0%
May 10th - 61°F/39°F...0.00"...60%
May 11th - 62°F/36°F...0.00"...40%
May 12th - 54°F/39°F...Trace...20%
May 13th - 70°F/38°F...0.00"...90%
May 14th - 73°F/37°F...0.01"...95%
May 15th - 65°F/48°F...0.26"...40%

Updated: 5:08 AM GMT on May 16, 2008

Permalink

Late-season Nor'easter

By: sullivanweather, 7:14 PM GMT on May 11, 2008

Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings

------


Regional Forecast


Synopsis - Issued 5/11 - 3:15pm


A strong upper level cut-off low pressure/surface low pressure couplet will drift from the Ohio Valley Sunday afternoon to the northern Mid-Atlantic region by Monday morning. Upon crossing the Appalachians a secondary area of surface low pressure will form off the Delmarva coast, slowly moving east-northeastwards out to sea by Tuesday afternoon. A narrow ridge will build into the Northeast on Wednesday for a brief time before the next system moves into the region by Thursday. Thereafter another deep trough will dip down from Canada bringing unsettled weather Friday through next weekend.


Short-term - Issued 5/11 - 3:15pm


Much to discuss in the short-term as rainfall associated with the aforementioned upper level low has already pulled into the western half of Pennsylvania and extreme southwestern New York and will continue to overspread the southern half of the region this afternoon into this evening. This is a very vigorous system carrying an impressive cold pool aloft with temperatures at 500mb down to -20°C! After midnight the secondary low pressure takes over in central Virginia and intensifies into a full blown nor'easter. An anomalous 60-70kt low level easterly jet will develop aided by stubborn high pressure over New England which will transport a tremendous amount of Atlantic moisture into the system. Rainfall will become quite heavy late in the evening into early Monday morning across the southern two-thirds of New Jersey and Pennsylvania. As the cold pool encroaches on the region the possibility of elevated convection will arise, which could drop some heavy amounts of rain in a short period of time given precipitable water values close to or over an inch. In addition to the rain, some wet snowflakes will be possible at elevations over 2000’. In fact, some of the notches and mountain peaks above 3000’ could see several inches of snow if everything lines up just right. Rainfall amounts across New Jersey and Pennsylvania should average 1-2 inches with locally higher amounts. To the north there should be a sharp cutoff in precipitation amounts across New York and southern New England due to dry air advection from the high over New England. Under the influence of this low pressure it will be quite chilly for mid-May with highs struggling to get out of the 40’s. Some of the higher terrain may even remain in the upper 30’s. A stiff easterly to northeasterly wind will blow at 20-30mph with gusts to 45mph, especially along the coast. Coastal flooding will also be of concern with the long fetch of easterly wind piling water up along the coast. The nor’easter will slowly pull away from the region Monday night and Tuesday with precipitation ending from west to east. Clearing skies and milder temperatures will return to western sections on Tuesday with temperatures returning to near seasonable levels. Along the coast, clouds and light showers will hang tough keeping temperatures well below normal once again.

Across northern New York and New England conditions will remain tranquil as high pressure keeps the storm over the Mid-Atlantic south of the region. High clouds will move into the area on Monday providing filtered sunshine and mild temperatures in the upper 50’s to low 60’s. Heights will build on Tuesday with mainly sunny skies and temperatures about 5 degrees warmer.


___________________________________________________________


Garden Series

Blog 1: Planning the Garden
Blog 2: Cool season crops
Blog 3: Companion gardening
Blog 4: Container gardening


__________________________________________________________

Soil moisture 0-200cm
Soil moisture 0-200cm

Soil temperature 0-10cm
Soil temperature 0-10cm

Soil temperature 10-40cm
Soil temperature 10-40cm


Kelvin temperature scale
273.15°K = 0°C


___________________________________________________________

Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar


___________________________________________________________

Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.

---------------------------


Fillipini's Pond conditions (Lake across street)

11/6: 42°F
11/9: 37°F
11/11: 33°F - 1st morning with grease ice on lake.
11/17: 33°F
11/22: 34°F
11/24: 32°F - patchy ice on lake this morning
11/25: 32°F - lake iced over completely, melting along the shores during the afternoon.
12/1: Patchy ice has been on the lake all week. Lake should freeeze over completely tonight.
12/3: Lake is frozen over and covered with snow.

4/4: Lake is beginning to thaw from the shores inward
4/6: Lake is now completely unfrozen.

___________________________________________________________




May Daily Weather Statistics

May 1st - 56°F/25°F...0.12"...30%
May 2nd - 48°F/45°F...0.05"....0%
May 3rd - 48°F/43°F...0.16"....0%
May 4th - 64°F/45°F...0.07"...60%
May 5th - 67°F/35°F...0.00"...75%
May 6th - 70°F/36°F...Trace"...90%
May 7th - 75°F/39°F....0.00"...80%
May 8th - 68°F/48°F....0.04"...25%
May 9th - 48°F/42°F....0.62"....0%
May 10th - 61°F/39°F...0.00"...60%
May 11th - 62°F/36°F...0.00"...40%
May 12th - 54°F/39°F...Trace...20%

Updated: 7:16 AM GMT on May 13, 2008

Permalink

Stormy pattern for the foreseeable future.

By: sullivanweather, 10:07 AM GMT on May 09, 2008

I will add another entry into the garden series later today or tomorrow. For now, the forecast.


Garden Series

Blog 1: Planning the Garden
Blog 2: Cool season crops
Blog 3: Companion gardening
Blog 4: Container gardening


__________________________________________________________

Soil moisture 0-200cm
Soil moisture 0-200cm

Soil temperature 0-10cm
Soil temperature 0-10cm

Soil temperature 10-40cm
Soil temperature 10-40cm


Kelvin temperature scale
273.15°K = 0°C

___________________________________________________________


Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings

------

Regional Forecast


Synopsis - Issued 5/9 6:00am

Two fairly strong slow moving upper level systems and attending surface lows will move through the Northeast over the next four days. Each of these systems have the possibility of producing heavy rainfall which could lead to localized flooding, especially in the southern third of the region. In fact, some locations across the higher terrain may see some wet snowflakes Monday night as cold pool aloft moves overhead. Conditions will gradually improve on Tuesday with clearing skies and warming temperatures by Wednesday. By next Thursday and Friday another complex low pressure system could provide the region with another bout of rainfall.


Short-term - Issued 5/9 6:00am

Currently, a potent 500mb shortwave is crossing the central Appalachians with low pressure at the surface developing over central Virginia. This low will lift northeastwards as the mid-level disturbance, initially an open wave, closes off bringing a rain event to the Northeast. In addition, closed lows at the 850mb and 700mb level will act to enhance rainfall across southeastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, southeastern New York and southern New England where flood watches are posted. Broad southwesterly flow ahead of the storm is helping to move Gulf of Mexico moisture northeastward. Storms over the Carolinas and Virginia helped to stem the moisture transport towards the region earlier yesterday evening but as this convection has died the shield of rain as spread steadily northward. Light to moderate rain will be falling over much of the southeastern half of the Northeast Friday morning. As the storm system intensifies this afternoon a 40kt low-level easterly jet will transport Atlantic moisture into the storm with precipitable water values rising well over an inch to an inch and a half. Rather impressive dynamics will efficiently go to work on the available moisture. Mesoscale models show several areas banding/frontogenesis developing on the north side of the storm ahead of the system as well as modest zone of deformation on the backside of the low as it pulls away. Rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches are certainly likely along the coast and up to 100 miles inland with localized amounts approaching 3 inches. The low will be a slow mover, reaching Long Island Friday evening then moving to 100mi east-southeast of Cape Cod by Saturday afternoon. Further north and west there should be a sharp cut-off to the rainfall amounts from north-central Pennsylvania to east-central New York to the Maine Coast. Even further northwest the clouds will thin and temperatures should be warmer than their neighbors to the south. Here, high's will get into the mid to upper 60's with upper 50's just to the south under the thicker clouds before reaching the precipitation shield. Under the precipitation highs will be kept down, remaining in the upper 40's across the higher terrain of the Catskills, Berkshires and Poconos to low 50's along the coastal plain. Overnight lows will drop little with clouds and precipitation over the region. Saturday, as the low pressure slowly pulls away from the coast, a 5-10 degree rebound in temperatures can be expected, although southern New England up to the Maine coast will likely remain in the upper 40's to low 50's stuck under the precipitation.

A small bubble high will develop behind the storm system Saturday night with light winds and clearing skies outside of coastal Maine. It will be a rather chilly night with radiational cooling conditions realised for a time in most places. With the recent rainfall, areas of fog will develop after midnight which could become quite thick over low-lying areas. There's also a chance for frost across some of the more sheltered valleys across the region. Overnight lows will drop into the 40's for most areas, with mid to upper 30's over the higher terrain and sheltered valleys.


Mid-term - Issued 5/9 6:00am


A narrow ridge will hang over the region Sunday with mainly partly cloudy skies expected, although clouds from the previous storm will still rotate around the offshore low to effect Downeast Maine. A deep cut-off low pressure will slowly churn towards the region via the Ohio Valley with precipitation moving into western sections late in the day slowly spreading northeastwards during the overnight on into Monday. This will be another slow-moving complex low pressure system with coastal redevelopment able to produce heavy amounts of rainfall in excess of an inch. The storm will slowly move along the coast south of Long Island before shearing out to the east Monday night. With a cooler airmass over the region some wet snowflakes may mix in with the rain across the highest elevations of the Catskills as the core of the cold pool aloft moves over the region Monday night. Clearing skies will take hold Tuesday as the storm moves out to sea. Temperatures throughout the period will average much below normal along the coast with slightly below normal temperatures towards the US-Canadian border where sunnier skies may prevail.



Long-term - Issued 5/9 6:00am


Improving conditions will take shape during the midweek with temperatures gradually moderating to near normal levels. The next deep trough will approach from the west Thursday and Friday bringing renewed chances for rainfall that will extend into the beginning of the weekend. Once again temperatures will likely average below normal. Looking ahead, cool unsettled weather may extend into at least the first half of next week as persistent troughiness hangs over the Northeast and Great Lakes region of the country.



___________________________________________________________

Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar


___________________________________________________________

Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.

---------------------------

Great Lakes SST's 4/15/2008

Great Lakes SST's as of 04/15/2008.

-------

Fillipini's Pond conditions (Lake across street)

11/6: 42°F
11/9: 37°F
11/11: 33°F - 1st morning with grease ice on lake.
11/17: 33°F
11/22: 34°F
11/24: 32°F - patchy ice on lake this morning
11/25: 32°F - lake iced over completely, melting along the shores during the afternoon.
12/1: Patchy ice has been on the lake all week. Lake should freeeze over completely tonight.
12/3: Lake is frozen over and covered with snow.

4/4: Lake is beginning to thaw from the shores inward
4/6: Lake is now completely unfrozen.

___________________________________________________________




May Daily Weather Statistics

May 1st - 56°F/25°F...0.12"...30%
May 2nd - 48°F/45°F...0.05"....0%
May 3rd - 48°F/43°F...0.16"....0%
May 4th - 64°F/45°F...0.07"...60%
May 5th - 67°F/35°F...0.00"...75%
May 6th - 70°F/36°F...Trace"...90%
May 7th - 75°F/39°F....0.00"...80%
May 8th - 68°F/48°F....0.04"...25%

Permalink

Unsettled Weekend - Container Gardening

By: sullivanweather, 7:19 PM GMT on May 02, 2008



RIP Eight Belles

This magnificent filly ran a spectacular race in the 134th running of the Kentucky Derby finishing 2nd behind the favortie Big Brown. Upon finishing the race Eight Belles refused to be held up, wanting to run further than her body would allow. She broke both her two front ankles in an attempt to stop her and had to be euthanized a mere few minutes after running the race of her life.

Eight Belles ran a total of 10 races, finishing 1st in 5 of them, including her final 4 races leading up to the Run for the Roses. She failed to show in only one race.






Garden Series

Blog 1: Planning the Garden
Blog 2: Cool season crops
Blog 3: Companion gardening

___________________________________________________________



Container Gardening



The most recent cold snap is now behind us with little chance for freezing temperatures in the near future for regions where the growing season starts on or prior to May 1st. With the threat of frost now on the wane we can expand further into other aspects of gardening, namely container gardening. A thought did pass my mind to move on to warm season crops but for most of us soil temperatures are still too low. In addition, while many of us have a yard to install a garden there are those of us out there that don't. There's many ways one can garden using containers (flowers, conifers, vegetables & herbs). What this blog will focus on is vegetables and herbs. After all, this series of garden blogs is geared towards growing your own food - organically.

Unlike flowers, most vegetables have extensive root systems which require lots of space to spread out. With this being the case, the bigger the better when choosing a container to grow your vegetables in, although there are a couple of exceptions. A container too small for tomatoes, for example, will produce smaller tomatoes in reduced quantity. Also, once roots bunch up at the bottom of a container the plant will become susceptible to disease, especially in over-watered containers. Hence in choosing a container you’re going to want to make sure you choose one that’s appropriate for the vegetables you decide to grow. Containers come in all shapes and sizes, from plastic to terracotta to wooden whiskey barrels. When choosing a wooden container be sure that it has not been treated with any chemicals to preserve its integrity. You don’t want to plant anything inside a container treated with toxic chemicals that can easily be absorbed through the root systems of your plants.

Tomatoes, peppers, eggplant, cabbage family members and squash all have extensive root systems which will require a large deep container. Root crops such as onions and beets, beans, legumes and herbs can all get away with being planted in smaller, shallow containers. You’ll want to keep this in mind being that some containers can run quite pricey.

After obtaining the containers you’ll need some soil to fill them with. I must add, before filling your containers with soil you’ll want to be sure your containers have proper drainage. Most containers come with drainage holes already in place, however, if it doesn’t you’ll have to add your own. In addition to ensuring proper drainage you’ll want to add a layer of stones or a stone/charcoal mixture to the bottom of the container. This will also help with drainage and the charcoal will help to prevent root disease. Although different plants require different soil types I'll try to make soil selection as straight forward as possible. What I recommend is buying two types of soil, an all purpose organic fertilizer and garden lime. The first soil is a ’soiless’ growing medium that can be found at most nurseries or big box store garden departments. It’s called ‘pro-mix’ and I’ll provide a link at the bottom of this post to their website. It comes in several sizes from 3.8 cu.ft. bails to 2.2 cu.ft. bails as well as smaller sized bags. The second soil type would be a humus rich garden soil marked as organic. Steer clear of humus rich mixtures of soil that contain petrochemical fertilizers such as Miracle Grow. I recommend a soil called ‘Bumper Crop’ which I will also provide a link for. You’ll want to use, on average, a 70:30 pro-mix:bumper crop ratio when filling your containers. You’ll want to leave about an inch or two of space from the lip of the container to the top of the soil level. In addition to the soil you’ll want to amend it with an all-purpose organic fertilizer. As mentioned in previous blogs in the garden series, a great organic fertilizer company is Espoma which is widely available. They have a large line of organic fertilizer products ranging from all-purpose fertilizers, such as garden-tone, to specialized products such as tomato-tone. Add an appropriate amount of fertilizer following the instructions provided on the bags of the product to the soil in your containers and mix it in well. This will ensure that there will be plenty of food for your plants roots as it reaches down into deeper soil strata. Lastly, since pro-mix is a product derived from peat moss it will be acidic in nature. Since some plants such as beets and cabbage family members will find this acidic soil offensive you’ll want to raise its PH level. Garden lime will be needed to add to the soil of such plants to attain a higher level of alkalinity. Of course, always follow instructions on the bag of the product to ensure proper dosage.

Just as important as soil, you’ll also want to give your container gardens proper amounts of water and light. Keeping your containers evenly moist is essential to the health of the plants. Container gardens may also be fickle as once they dry out it’s often quite difficult to moisten the soil once again. This is due to the compaction of the soil as it dries making the dirt less porous. If this happens don’t be fooled! You may water your container garden only to have most of the water drain down the sides of the pot. It will take several doses of water to moisten your soil if it dries out. To make sure that the soil is retaining water once again you’ll have to make a small hole several inches into the soil of your container to check it for moisture retention. Often times the top of the soil will appear wet however just a couple inches below the surface will be bone dry. Due to the small volume of soil containers hold they will dry out quite fast, especially during periods of hot dry weather. Once summer-like temperatures set in be sure to give your containers regular watering once a day, preferably in the morning while the humidity is still relatively high. On extremely hot days (95 degrees or higher) it may be necessary to water your containers twice a day. Over-watering can also be a problem. If you take a pinch full of soil and squeeze out more than a drop of water your soil is likely too moist. It may all sound confusing now but after a couple weeks you’ll find a happy niche in watering your containers properly. Making sure your container gardens receive proper amounts of light is also essential to the health of your plants. Plants such as lettuce and cabbage can be burned by too much sun, especially during hot summer afternoons so you’ll want to provide them with some shade during those hours of the day. Root crops will require higher amounts of light and fruiting crops require the most. So properly placed containers will provide your plants the best health and highest yields.

Companion gardening, as discussed in the previous blog, is a great way to maximize your harvest from your containers. There’s also ‘pigmy’ plants that are suited to be grown in containers that will help with space. As always see your local nursery professionals in helping to choose your plants.

There’s other factors to keep in mind with container gardening concerning safety. When filled with dirt and watered containers can be quite heavy. After full of soil and watered you’ll want to be sure you don’t hurt yourself in moving them. Placing the containers on dowels and sliding them to where you want them will help to prevent potential injury. Also too many containers on a deck, for example, may cause that structure to collapse. Be sure to know how much weight your deck or patio can hold and don’t exceed that limit. Plants produce a surprising amount of yield so there’s no need to go overboard if using containers.




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Soil moisture 0-200cm
Soil moisture 0-200cm

Soil temperature 0-10cm
Soil temperature 0-10cm

Soil temperature 10-40cm
Soil temperature 10-40cm


Kelvin temperature scale
273.15°K = 0°C


Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings

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Regional Forecast


Synopsis - Issued 5/3 3:25am


Deep low pressure over the Upper Midwest which brought a late season blizzard to the High Plains will pull into southern Canada during the day on Saturday pushing a cold front towards the Northeast. This front will bring showers and the chance for thunderstorms in the warm sector as it pulls through the region. The front will pull offshore Sunday night with high pressure building in its wake for Monday and Tuesday. The next system, a northern stream trough, will move into the Northeast by Wednesday with another trough to move into the region out of the southern stream by late week.


Short-term - Issued 5/3 3:25am


Surface high pressure over Nova Scotia has kept a warm front draped over the Northeast for the previous two days. This high pressure will move little during the day on Saturday keeping the pesky marine layer banked along the coast and the east side of the Appalachians due to onshore flow. Under the marine layer one will find low clouds, fog and drizzle with a few steadier showers moving from northwest to southeast along the warm frontal boundary. High temperatures will remain in the upper 40's to upper 50's with a stiff easterly breeze blowing at 10-15mph. Once one heads west of the marine layer the clouds will break and temperatures will climb into the 60's and 70's with a southerly flow. By late in the day a pre-frontal trough will approach western New York and Pennsylvania bringing showers and the chance for thunderstorms. CAPE values will rise to 600-1,000 J/kg by afternoon as a 50kt low level jet punches through the region. Any convection that does develop has the potential to transfer these stronger winds down to the surface. These storms will continue into the evening as they push east through central New York and Pennsylvania. However, once they head into the stable marine airmass they will fall apart becoming more of a stratiform rainfall. Additional showers will develop along the actual cold front that will be moving into western sections of the region after midnight as the initial batch of precipitation moves into New England. Overnight lows Saturday night will range from the upper 30's to low 40's over Maine where dry conditions will prevail. The remainder of New England will drop into the 40's as will western Pennsylvania and New York as the cold front will clear this area ushering in chillier air. The eastern half of Pennsylvania, New Jersey and southern/south-central New York will likely remain in the 50's.

A mid level short wave rounding the base of the deep trough carved out over the Great Lakes will spawn a surface low pressure at the triple point of the frontal boundary over the Northeast Sunday morning. This will act to enhance precipitation over New England during the day on Sunday where amounts will range from a half inch to an inch. Further west over New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania the cold front will push through with clearing skies in its wake. Temperatures will rise into the 60's across the southern half of Pennsylvania, New Jersey and southeastern New York. Elsewhere over the region temperatures will climb into the 50's with 40's over northern New England. Rain will continue to push eastwards into Maine during the evening hours on Sunday as high pressure builds into the region from the Great Lakes region with clearing skies from west to east. Frost will be possible across the mountains of northwestern Pennsylvania as temperatures drop into the mid 30's under those clear skies and light winds. Elsewhere over the region temperatures will remain in the 40's. Southeasterly winds ahead of the front will become northwesterly before becoming light and variable across western sections where high pressure will become the dominate weather feature.



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Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar

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Current Northeast Snowcover

Northeast Snowcover



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Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.

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Great Lakes SST's 4/15/2008

Great Lakes SST's as of 04/15/2008.

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Fillipini's Pond conditions (Lake across street)

11/6: 42°F
11/9: 37°F
11/11: 33°F - 1st morning with grease ice on lake.
11/17: 33°F
11/22: 34°F
11/24: 32°F - patchy ice on lake this morning
11/25: 32°F - lake iced over completely, melting along the shores during the afternoon.
12/1: Patchy ice has been on the lake all week. Lake should freeeze over completely tonight.
12/3: Lake is frozen over and covered with snow.

4/4: Lake is beginning to thaw from the shores inward
4/6: Lake is now completely unfrozen.

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April Daily Weather Statistics


April 1st - 64°F/41°F....0.46"...25%...0.0"...(>1")
April 2nd - 41°F/27°F....0.01"...90%...0.1"...(>1")
April 3rd - 48°F/16°F....0.00"...80%...0.0"...(>1")
April 4th - 41°F/31°F....0.67"...0%....1.8"...(2")
April 5th - 46°F/37°F....0.08"...30%...0.0"...(>1")
April 6th - 46°F/36°F....0.00"...20%...0.0"...(Trace)
April 7th - 49°F/34°F....0.01"...30%...0.0"...(Trace)
April 8th - 59°F/29°F....0.00"...50%...0.0"...(0")
April 9th - 61°F/31°F....0.00"...90%...0.0"...(0")
April 10th - 64°F/43°F...0.00"...100%..0.0"...(0")
April 11th - 55°F/43°F...0.32"...5%....0.0"...(0")
April 12th - 70°F/42°F...0.44"...70%...0.0"...(0")
April 13th - 46°F/32°F...0.00"...30%...0.0"...(0")
April 14th - 49°F/27°F...0.00"...50%...0.0"...(0")
April 15th - 55°F/26°F...0.00"...95%...0.0"...(0")
April 16th - 65°F/25°F...0.00"..100%...0.0"...(0")
April 17th - 75°F/31°F...0.00"..100%...0.0"...(0")
April 18th - 83°F/40°F...0.00"..100%...0.0"...(0")
April 19th - 81°F/48°F...0.00"...95%...0.0"...(0")
April 20th - 61°F/47°F...0.00"...10%...0.0"...(0")
April 21st - 70°F/45°F...0.00"...95%...0.0"...(0")
April 22nd - 72°F/38°F...0.00"...90%...0.0"...(0")
April 23rd - 75°F/44°F...0.04"...80%...0.0"...(0")
April 24th - 71°F/46°F...Trace...90%...0.0"...(0")
April 25th - 74°F/39°F...0.00"...60%...0.0"...(0")
April 26th - 64°F/52°F...0.09"...40%...0.0"...(0")
April 27th - 63°F/45°F...0.06"...20%...0.0"...(0")
April 28th - 50°F/42°F...1.19"....0%...0.0"...(0")
April 29th - 48°F/36°F...0.08"...40%...0.0"...(0")
April 30th - 47°F/29°F...0.00"...50%...0.0"...(0")



May Daily Weather Statistics

May 1st - 56°F/25°F...0.12"...30%
May 2nd - 48°F/45°F...0.05"....0%
May 3rd - 48°F/43°F...0.16"....0%
May 4th - 64°F/45°F...0.07"...60%
May 5th - 67°F/35°F...0.00"...75%
May 6th - 70°F/36°F...0.00"...90%

Updated: 7:09 PM GMT on May 07, 2008

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About sullivanweather

Thomas is an avid weather enthusiast, landscaper and organic gardener. This blog is dedicated to Northeast and tropical weather forecasting. Enjoy!

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