Northeast Weather Blog

Two storms this week.

By: sullivanweather, 9:18 PM GMT on March 30, 2008

Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings

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Commentary

As some may have noticed I usually post my forecasts in a NWS discussion format with my synopsis, followed by short term, mid term and long term outlooks. Starting today I will label these sections and add the issuance time to advoid any confusion.


Regional Forecast


Synopsis - Issued 3/30 5:20pm

The Northeast will see a fairly active pattern this week with two well developed systems to contend with. The first will begin to effect the sensible weather tonight and pull out of the region on Tuesday. High pressure will build in on Wednesday, then the second storm moves through late on Thursday into Friday. A long wave trough will set up shop over the Eastern United States this weekend with seasonable weather expected.


Short-term - Issued 3/30 5:20pm
High clouds are already beginning to filter into the Northeast and will continue to do so for the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening. Clouds will lower and thicken late in the evening over western sections but not before temperatures drop quite rapidly after sunset with high cloud deck, if any at all, and dry airmass over the region, especially over the eastern sections. Isentropic lift generated precipitation will begin to move into western Pennsylvania and the Niagara Frontier after midnight and push steadily eastwards. Once reaching the endless mountains of Pennsylvania and the Finger Lakes region of New York temperatures at the surface will be cold enough for precipitation to fall as freezing rain or sleet. Winter weather advisories are currently issued for these areas and will likely be expanded eastwards into the remainder of Upstate New York and interior sections of New England. At the surface a 1040mb+ high pressure system will slowly pull off Cape Cod creating a cold air damming situation east of the Appalachians setting the stage for this late-season icing situation. South of the I-80 corridor should see mainly rainfall as the dominate precipitation type however the southern Poconos and the Lehigh Valley could see a brief period of sleet and/or freezing rain in isolated pockets. Further north and east over New England precipitation will hold off until Monday and most areas should get by with mostly clear skies for much of the night. Ideal radiational cooling conditions will be met, especially over northern New England where an extensive snowpack remains with some areas having a fresh cover due to the storm on Friday. Temperatures will drop into the mid to upper 30's along the coastal plain of New Jersey as well as the southern and western halves of Pennsylvania on northwards to the Niagara Frontier. The remainder of upstate New York and most of New England, except for the immediate coast will see overnight lows drop into the teens and 20's. In fact, the higher terrain of northern New England may once again see overnight temperatures drop into the single digits.


Precipitation will overspread the remainder of the Northeast on Monday. The leading edge of the precipitation shield will continue to have wintry precipitation types accompany it. However, as a warm front pushes its way northward aided by a 50-55kt low level jet, precipitation will eventually changeover to rain from southwest to northeast. Central New York and northeast Pennsylvania will likely see a changeover during the morning hours with northern New York and western New England seeing a changeover during the early afternoon. Here up to a quarter inch of glazing may occur as well as up to an inch of snowfall over western New England where precipitation will move into a deeper layer of cold air initially. Northern New England will likely see freezing/frozen precipitation types for much of the day with a couple inches of snowfall possible before changing to sleet and freezing rain with additional light accretions of ice. Elsewhere will see widely scattered rain showers. Temperatures will range from the low 50's across southwestern and southeastern Pennsylvania as well as the coastal plain of New Jersey. 40's will be common across much of the rest of interior Pennsylvania, most of New York and southern New England with 30's over far northern New York and northern New England.


Cloudy skies with fog and drizzle will be common much of the night Monday night across most of the region with areas of freezing rain and sleet limited to northern Maine. Fog could become especially thick along the south coast of New England and over the snow covered areas of northern New York and New England as a high moisture content airmass advects into the region. Temperatures will likely hold steady or rise several degrees in an atypical diurnal scheme. Heavier showers may increase over western sections towards daybreak as the cold frontal boundary approaches the region.

___________________________________________________________

March 26th snow survey





___________________________________________________________

Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar

___________________________________________________________


Current Northeast Snowcover

Northeast Snowcover


MODIS Rapid Response satellite photo of Northeast snow cover (12/06/2007)


___________________________________________________________

Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.

---------------------------

Great Lakes SST's 3/11/2008

Great Lakes SST's as of 03/11/2008.

-------

Fillipini's Pond conditions (Lake across street)

11/6: 42°F
11/9: 37°F
11/11: 33°F - 1st morning with grease ice on lake.
11/17: 33°F
11/22: 34°F
11/24: 32°F - patchy ice on lake this morning
11/25: 32°F - lake iced over completely, melting along the shores during the afternoon.
12/1: Patchy ice has been on the lake all week. Lake should freeeze over completely tonight.
12/3: Lake is frozen over and covered with snow.

___________________________________________________________


March Daily Weather Statistics


March 1st - 34°F/19°F....0.21"....20%..2.9"...(17")
March 2nd - 35°F/18°F....Trace....80%..0.1"...(16")
March 3rd - 53°F/17°F....0.03"....30%..0.0"...(15")
March 4th - 41°F/32°F....0.86"....0%...Trace..(9")
March 5th - 45°F/28°F....1.03"....5%...0.0"...(6")
March 6th - 45°F/21°F....0.00"....70%..0.0"...(5")
March 7th - 43°F/23°F....0.74"....30%..0.0"...(5")
March 8th - 41°F/28°F....1.33"....5%...0.1"...(4")
March 9th - 31°F/19°F....0.03"....40%..0.2"...(3")
March 10th - 34°F/16°F....0.00"....50%..0.0"...(3")
March 11th - 39°F/21°F....0.03"....80%..0.5"...(3")
March 12th - 36°F/26°F....0.01"....20%..0.1"...(3")
March 13th - 43°F/21°F....Trace....50%..Trace..(3")
March 14th - 47°F/27°F....0.19"....10%..0.0"...(3")
March 15th - 45°F/35°F....0.24"....40%..Trace..(2")
March 16th - 39°F/27°F....0.11"....20%..0.6"...(2")
March 17th - 44°F/21°F....0.00"...100%..0.0"...(2")
March 18th - 38°F/25°F....0.06"...20%...0.1"...(2")
March 19th - 43°F/32°F....1.21"....0%...Trace..(2")
March 20th - 45°F/27°F....0.06"...20%...0.3"...(1")
March 21st - 35°F/23°F....0.03"...40%...0.5"...(1")
March 22nd - 40°F/20°F....0.00"...90%...0.0"...(1")
March 23rd - 37°F/18°F....0.00"...60%...0.0"...(1")
March 24th - 41°F/18°F....0.00"...60%...0.0"...(1")
March 25th - 43°F/18°F....0.00"...80%...0.0"...(1")
March 26th - 49°F/31°F....0.14"...60%...1.1"...(2")
March 27th - 44°F/27°F....0.00"...0%....0.0"...(1")
March 28th - 37°F/28°F....0.43"...10%...Trace..(1")
March 29th - 36°F/20°F....0.00"...95%...0.0"...(1")



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More snow on the way.

By: sullivanweather, 11:13 AM GMT on March 26, 2008

Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings

------

Commentary

As some may have noticed I usually post my forecasts in a NWS discussion format with my synopsis, followed by short term, mid term and long term outlooks. Starting today I will label these sections and add the issuance time to advoid any confusion.


Regional Forecast



Synopsis - issued 3/26 6:45am
A frontal boundary associated with a clipper system over Canada is moving offshore this Wednesday morning. A 18-30 hour period of tranquil weather will follow the passage of this frontal boundary followed by more unsettled weather Thursday and Friday as a couple waves of low pressure ride along a baroclinic zone that sets up along the Mason-Dixon line. These lows bring the possibility for a late-season snowstorm along the New York/Pennsylvania border region eastwards into interior New England. High pressure will build down behind the departing low from Canada bringing a fair but chilly weekend to the Northeast. The next storm system will move into the region the beginning of next week bringing another wintry mix towards the north with rain south.


Short-term - issued 3/26 6:45am
A clipper over central Ontario is dragging a cold frontal boundary through the Northeast this Wednesday morning. Widely scattered light rain and elevation dependant snow showers will prevail during the morning hours, especially over New England with clearing towards the west. By afternoon most of the region will clear out aside from the higher terrain of northern New York and New England where orographic lift will provide clouds and a few scattered snow showers. Good mixing and downsloping winds will allow for temperatures to warm nicely this afternoon along the coastal plain with temperatures climbing into the low 50's to near 60°F from north to south. Across the interior temperatures will range from the low to mid 50's across southern Pennsylvania with mid to upper 40's across northern Pennsylvania. From south-central New York to interior southern New England highs will climb into the mid 40's across the higher terrain with low 50's in the valleys. North-central New York, including the Niagara Frontier will see mid to upper 40's for highs. Northern New York, Vermont, New Hampshire and southern Maine will see highs in the low to mid 40's in the lowlands with mid to upper 30's across the higher terrain. Northern Maine will see highs only in the low to mid 30's.

Clouds return fairly quickly Wednesday night, especially over the southern sections as warm advection ensues. Rain showers will spread into western Pennsylvania after midnight as isentropic lift increases and will spread eastwards towards daybreak. Elsewhere over the Northeast expect steadily increasing cloud cover, although mostly clear skies early in the evening will allow for temperatures to drop rather quickly, especially over northern New York and New England where a deep snowpack still exists. Temperatures will bottom out in the upper 30's to low 40's along the coastal plain and across southern Pennsylvania. Northern Pennsylvania to interior southern New England will drop into the low 30's. Further north, temperatures will bottom out in the 20's with some teens across the higher terrain and across northern Maine.


The first wave of low pressure will continue to work across the southern sections of the Northeast during the day on Thursday, bringing scattered rain showers to most areas, although snow or sleet may mix in as one heads towards the New York/Pennsylvania border region to the Catskills, Berkshires and hills of northwestern Connecticut. Further northwards any precipitation will be limited to a few flurries under mostly cloudy skies. Temperatures will fail to rise much from their morning lows with the expected cloud cover. Highs will reach the mid to upper 40's along the coastal plain and southern Pennsylvania. Temperatures will drop quickly as one heads north due to a tightening baroclinic zone setting up over the Northeast. Highs will remain in the upper 30's to near 40°F from the New York/Pennsylvania border region eastwards to interior southern New England with low to mid 30's towards the north. The higher terrain is expected to remain in the upper 20's to near 30°F.


Mid-term - issued 3/26 9:40am
An increasingly complicated scenario will be developing Thursday night as the squeeze play will be on in the Northeast. A second stronger wave of low pressure will ride along a stationary front draped along the Mason-Dixon line as a surface high pressure will build down from central Canada all the while a 500mb cut-off low will remain nearly stationary over the Gulf of St.Lawrence. Confluent flow over northern New England combined with northerly to northeasterly flow around the east side of high pressure sliding southeastward will keep a cold air locked into the interior of the Northeast as moisture advects into the region. Increasing frontogenesis over northern Pennsylvania and south-central New York will lead to an area of steady moderate precipitation developing during the overnight hours. Towards the New York/Pennsylvania border region and all points north most, if not all, of this precipitation will fall as snow which could bring advisory level accumulations, especially at elevations above 1000' mainly south of the New York State Thruway. To the south of the I-80 corridor precipitation will be mainly rain with a narrow band of sleet and/or freezing rain to the north of I-80 and south of the NY/PA border. This area of precipitation will reach to the New York/New England border by daybreak. Far northern New York and northern New England will see mostly cloudy skies with little precipitation to speak of, aside from a few renegade flurries. Low temperatures will remain near to slightly above normal with clouds and precipitation around.

Precipitation continues into spread into the southern two thirds of New England Friday morning. Coastal sections will see rainfall while across the interior a wintry mix of precipitation types will be present with snow becoming predominate towards the Mass Pike. There could be a brief break in the precipitation as forcing/lift associated with the second wave of low pressure moves offshore early in the afternoon. However, a third wave of low pressure spawn from a potent mid-level short wave will move south of the region during the afternoon. This disturbances' associated PVA will bisect the region late in the afternoon into the evening hours bringing another round of precipitation to the region. Once again, a messy mixture of precipitation types will plague the region. Notably along the I-80 corridor and points eastwards with snow towards the north and rain south. However, this transition zone will slowly push southwards during the evening hours as the surface low moves offshore and colder air wraps in behind the circulation. Precipitation will end from northwest to southeast during the overnight hours as the aforementioned high pressure builds into the region bringing clearing skies. Through all this mess, far northern New York and northern New England will likely remain precipitation-free. Temperatures will remain below normal during the day on Friday and Friday night for most, although coastal areas may remain near normal with clouds being slow to exit Friday night.

Snowmap - issued 3/27 7:00am



Slight changes were made to shift the snow northward from 10-25 miles. Otherwise everything looks good.

___________________________________________________________

Long-term - issued 3/27 8:00am

A sprawling area of high pressure of ~1040mb strength will build into the Northeast this weekend behind the departing waves of low pressure. On Saturday a few snow showers will be present over the higher terrain of northern New England as an upper trough settles over the area, aided by a strong March sun leading to increased low level instability. Otherwise expect mostly clear skies for the reminder of the region before high clouds move in late Sunday afternoon in advance of the next system to affect the Northeast for the beginning of next week. A rather chilly airmass will accompany the high pressure over the Northeast as its origin will be from the polar regions of northern Canada. Temperatures will average some 5-10 degrees below normal during day on Saturday with a slight moderation on Sunday. Overnight lows will be 10-15 degrees below normal Saturday night, in some cases more with deep snowcover present over northern New England and ideal radiational cooling conditions expected. With a similar airmass over northern Maine earlier this week Caribou set record lows on consecutive nights of -14°F.

Moisture continues to advect into the region Sunday night with clouds eventually overspreading the region. Isentropic lift will increase late in the evening causing precipitation to break out over western sections. This will mainly be in the form of rain, however isolated pockets of freezing rain and/or snow will be possible especially as one heads east of I-81 where high pressure over New England will set up a cold air damming situation east of the Appalachians. With clouds spreading over the region temperatures will be closer to normal over western sections with a continuation of below normal temperatures over New England where clouds will move in towards midnight allowing temperatures to fall rapidly after dark.

Warm advection pattern continues on Monday as precipitation envelopes the Northeast. A wintry mix of precipitation will begin the day east of I-81 and north of I-84 but quickly change over to rain. Further north and east the mix of precipitation types will hang on a bit longer into the day but eventually most areas will see plain rain aside from far northern New York and northern New England. Temperatures will be close to average for most areas.

Low pressure will ride up the St.Lawrence Valley Monday night with most areas seeing a changeover to rain in southwesterly flow ahead of the low. Temperatures will be above normal.

A cold frontal boundary will push through the Northeast during the day on Tuesday with rain ending from northwest to southeast. A changeover to snow is possible over northern sections before precipitation ends. High pressure will build into the region with temperatures falling back below normal under mostly clear skies by Wednesday.

___________________________________________________________

March 26th snow survey





___________________________________________________________

Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar

___________________________________________________________


Current Northeast Snowcover

Northeast Snowcover


MODIS Rapid Response satellite photo of Northeast snow cover (12/06/2007)


___________________________________________________________

Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.

---------------------------

Great Lakes SST's 3/11/2008

Great Lakes SST's as of 03/11/2008.

-------

Fillipini's Pond conditions (Lake across street)

11/6: 42°F
11/9: 37°F
11/11: 33°F - 1st morning with grease ice on lake.
11/17: 33°F
11/22: 34°F
11/24: 32°F - patchy ice on lake this morning
11/25: 32°F - lake iced over completely, melting along the shores during the afternoon.
12/1: Patchy ice has been on the lake all week. Lake should freeeze over completely tonight.
12/3: Lake is frozen over and covered with snow.

___________________________________________________________


March Daily Weather Statistics


March 1st - 34°F/19°F....0.21"....20%..2.9"...(17")
March 2nd - 35°F/18°F....Trace....80%..0.1"...(16")
March 3rd - 53°F/17°F....0.03"....30%..0.0"...(15")
March 4th - 41°F/32°F....0.86"....0%...Trace..(9")
March 5th - 45°F/28°F....1.03"....5%...0.0"...(6")
March 6th - 45°F/21°F....0.00"....70%..0.0"...(5")
March 7th - 43°F/23°F....0.74"....30%..0.0"...(5")
March 8th - 41°F/28°F....1.33"....5%...0.1"...(4")
March 9th - 31°F/19°F....0.03"....40%..0.2"...(3")
March 10th - 34°F/16°F....0.00"....50%..0.0"...(3")
March 11th - 39°F/21°F....0.03"....80%..0.5"...(3")
March 12th - 36°F/26°F....0.01"....20%..0.1"...(3")
March 13th - 43°F/21°F....Trace....50%..Trace..(3")
March 14th - 47°F/27°F....0.19"....10%..0.0"...(3")
March 15th - 45°F/35°F....0.24"....40%..Trace..(2")
March 16th - 39°F/27°F....0.11"....20%..0.6"...(2")
March 17th - 44°F/21°F....0.00"...100%..0.0"...(2")
March 18th - 38°F/25°F....0.06"...20%...0.1"...(2")
March 19th - 43°F/32°F....1.21"....0%...Trace..(2")
March 20th - 45°F/27°F....0.06"...20%...0.3"...(1")
March 21st - 35°F/23°F....0.03"...40%...0.5"...(1")
March 22nd - 40°F/20°F....0.00"...90%...0.0"...(1")
March 23rd - 37°F/18°F....0.00"...60%...0.0"...(1")
March 24th - 41°F/18°F....0.00"...60%...0.0"...(1")
March 25th - 43°F/18°F....0.00"...80%...0.0"...(1")
March 26th - 49°F/31°F....0.14"...60%...1.1"...(2")
March 27th - 44°F/27°F....0.00"...0%....0.0"...(1")
March 28th - 37°F/28°F....0.43"...10%...Trace..(1")
March 29th - 36°F/20°F....0.00"...95%...0.0"...(1")



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Updated: 4:41 AM GMT on March 30, 2008

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Winter sticking around...

By: sullivanweather, 5:07 AM GMT on March 23, 2008

Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings

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Commentary

A quick update. I've been out of the house for much of the last three days and will be out again tomorrow for Easter. I wanted to get a fast forecast out being I haven't issued one for several days.


Regional Forecast

High pressure building down from central Canada will make for a pleasent but chilly Easter Sunday for the Northeast. Upper trough swings through on Monday and moves offshore by Tuesday with a slight moderation in temperatures. A clipper low will affect the region Tuesday night and Wednesday with a southern stream system moving into the region for later Thursday into the first half of the weekend. Another chilly Canadian high pressure will build into the Northeast to round out the weekend and to begin next week.

---------------

A sprawling dome of high pressure will nose down from Canada spreading a modified arctic airmass into the Northeast for Easter Sunday. Skies will be mostly sunny aside from some cloudiness around the lakes and higher terrain of northern New York and New England. Temperatures will run some 5 to 10 degrees below normal with 20's expected voer northern New York and New England. Across the rest of the interior highs will climb into the 30's with 40's expected along the coastal plain and the lowlands of southern Pennsylvania. Winds will be northwesterly around 5-10mph except for northern New England where 10-15mph winds will be commong with slightly higher gusts.


Mid and high level cloudiness will increase Sunday night as a weak upper disturbance moves towards the region from the Great Lakes. Some scattered light snow showers and flurries can be expected around the lakes region with this disturbance. Otherwise expect partly to mostly cloudy skies, except for northern New England where cloudiness should hold off. Temperatures will continue to run below normal. Lows will fall below zero across northern Maine where radiational cooling conditions will be ideal. Elsewhere across the interior temperatures will fall into the teens and 20's from north to south, although the higher terrain of northern New York, Vermont and New Hampshire should have no problems falling into the single digits. Along the coastal plain temperatures will drop into the 20's.


The Northeast will find itself directly under an upper trough axis during the day on Monday. Moisture will be limited with this feature, especially at the surface where, in fact, a ridge axis will lie. However, with the ever stronger March sun, some diurnally driven snow showers will pop up over the region, especially over the higher terrain where orographic lift will aid in their development. This activity will be widely scattered and most will not seee much of anything except for partly cloudy skies. Temperatures will climb into the 40's along the coastal plain and along the Mason-Dixon line in southern Pennsylvania. Elsewhere over the interior temperatures will remain in the 30's with 20's across the northern sections and higher terrain.


Skies will clear out Monday night with only a few mid and high level clouds drifting by. High pressure will be overhead so another chilly night will be in store with temperatures running 5 to 15 degrees below normal under ideal radiational cooling conditions. Temperatures will range from the upper 20's to low 30's along the coastal plain with teens to lower 20's over much of the interior. Again, the northern sections will find their temperatures drop the most with a deep snowcover in place aiding in the radiational cooling. Here lows will fall back into the single digits and below zero once one heads into northern Maine.


The next disturbance will approach from the west on Tuesday, although most areas will still see a rather pleasent day. Clouds will be on the increase as the day progresses with precipitation entering western sections during the afternoon. Most areas will likely see snowfall although lower elevations below 1,000' south of the New York/Pennsylvania border could see rain, or a rain/snow mix. Accumulations will be on the light side and confined to grassy areas due to the wet nature of the snow falling during the daylight hours. Temperatures will rebound as high pressure moves offshore with a southwesterly return flow. Highs will be 5 to 10 degrees warmer than readings on Sunday and Monday. Temperatures will climb into the mid 40's to near 50°F along the coastal plain. Across the interior temperatures will climb into the 30's north with 40's south with the higher terrain remaining below 30°F.


The clipper low will track north of the region across southern Canada Tuesday night with a cold frontal passage expected for the region. Snow and/or rain showers will spread over the region as the night progresses with precipitation slowly transitioning towards the snowy side after the frontal passage. Areas over 1,000' should see all snow with light accumulations. Areas between 500-1,000' should begin the night with rain, changing to snow after the frontal passage. Areas below 500' should see mostly rain, except for northern locales where temperatures should be cold enough for snow throughout. Cloudiness will keep lows from dropping much from their diurnal maxes. Lows will be in the upper 30's to low 40's along the coastal plain with upper 20's to low 30's over the interior and upper teens to low 20's over the higher terrain.


The frontal boundary will push offshore Wednesday morning bringing most of the precipitation with it. Cold air advection behind the front will aid in the development of some lake effect clouds and snow showers in and around the Great Lakes region. The higher elevations of northern New York and New England will also see some scattered snow showers aided by the terrain and some wrap around moisture behind the departing low. Elsewhere expect partly to mostly sunny skies. Temperature will climb little from their overnight readings in the strong cold air advection pattern. Highs will reach into the 40's along the coastal plain with a 50°F reading ot two possible in southern New Jersey. The interior will see highs in the low to mid 30's over northern sections with upper 30's to low 40's towards the south.



___________________________________________________________

Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar

___________________________________________________________


Current Northeast Snowcover

Northeast Snowcover


MODIS Rapid Response satellite photo of Northeast snow cover (12/06/2007)


___________________________________________________________

Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.

---------------------------

Great Lakes SST's 3/11/2008

Great Lakes SST's as of 03/11/2008.

-------

Fillipini's Pond conditions (Lake across street)

11/6: 42°F
11/9: 37°F
11/11: 33°F - 1st morning with grease ice on lake.
11/17: 33°F
11/22: 34°F
11/24: 32°F - patchy ice on lake this morning
11/25: 32°F - lake iced over completely, melting along the shores during the afternoon.
12/1: Patchy ice has been on the lake all week. Lake should freeeze over completely tonight.
12/3: Lake is frozen over and covered with snow.

___________________________________________________________


March Daily Weather Statistics


March 1st - 34°F/19°F....0.21"....20%..2.9"...(17")
March 2nd - 35°F/18°F....Trace....80%..0.1"...(16")
March 3rd - 53°F/17°F....0.03"....30%..0.0"...(15")
March 4th - 41°F/32°F....0.86"....0%...Trace..(9")
March 5th - 45°F/28°F....1.03"....5%...0.0"...(6")
March 6th - 45°F/21°F....0.00"....70%..0.0"...(5")
March 7th - 43°F/23°F....0.74"....30%..0.0"...(5")
March 8th - 41°F/28°F....1.33"....5%...0.1"...(4")
March 9th - 31°F/19°F....0.03"....40%..0.2"...(3")
March 10th - 34°F/16°F....0.00"....50%..0.0"...(3")
March 11th - 39°F/21°F....0.03"....80%..0.5"...(3")
March 12th - 36°F/26°F....0.01"....20%..0.1"...(3")
March 13th - 43°F/21°F....Trace....50%..Trace..(3")
March 14th - 47°F/27°F....0.19"....10%..0.0"...(3")
March 15th - 45°F/35°F....0.24"....40%..Trace..(2")
March 16th - 39°F/27°F....0.11"....20%..0.6"...(2")
March 17th - 44°F/21°F....0.00"...100%..0.0"...(2")
March 18th - 38°F/25°F....0.06"...20%...0.1"...(2")
March 19th - 43°F/32°F....1.21"....0%...Trace..(2")
March 20th - 45°F/27°F....0.06"...20%...0.3"...(1")
March 21st - 35°F/23°F....0.03"...40%...0.5"...(1")
March 22nd - 40°F/20°F....0.00"...90%...0.0"...(1")
March 23rd - 37°F/18°F....0.00"...60%...0.0"...(1")
March 24th - 41°F/18°F....0.00"...60%...0.0"...(1")
March 25th - 43°F/18°F....0.00"...80%...0.0"...(1")



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Updated: 10:30 AM GMT on March 26, 2008

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February in review

By: sullivanweather, 1:59 PM GMT on March 15, 2008

Local Statistics - Bethel, NY


February Daily Weather Statistics

February 1st - 33°F/22°F....1.13"....0%...0.9"...(1")
February 2nd - 35°F/29°F....Trace....0%...Trace..(2")
February 3rd - 38°F/23°F....0.00"....60%..0.0"...(2")
February 4th - 31°F/24°F....0.04"....0%...0.2"...(2")
February 5th - 43°F/31°F....0.52"....5%...0.0"...(2")
February 6th - 48°F/32°F....1.08"....0%...0.0"...(1")
February 7th - 41°F/24°F....0.36"....30%..0.1"...(1")
February 8th - 34°F/20°F....Trace....30%..Trace..(1")
February 9th - 33°F/25°F....0.22"....0%...2.5"...(1")
February 10th - 33°F/2°F....0.13"....40%..2.4"...(3")
February 11th - 17°F/-1°F...Trace....90%..Trace..(4")
February 12th - 17°F/1°F....0.44"....10%..4.2"...(4")
February 13th - 34°F/17°F...1.68"....0%...0.5"...(7")
February 14th - 29°F/19°F...Trace....60%..Trace..(5")
February 15th - 37°F/17°F...0.06"....30%..0.3"...(5")
February 16th - 25°F/10°F...Trace....50%..Trace..(5")
February 17th - 37°F/9°F....0.35"....0%...0.1"...(5")
February 18th - 54°F/30°F...0.48"....10%..Trace..(4")
February 19th - 32°F/16°F...0.01"....50%..0.2"...(2")
February 20th - 26°F/11°F...Trace....70%..Trace..(2")
February 21st - 25°F/10°F...0.00"....50%..0.0"...(2")
February 22nd - 25°F/18°F...0.85"....0%..10.5"...(4")
February 23rd - 28°F/16°F...0.06"....10%..0.8"...(12")
February 24th - 34°F/9°F....Trace....50%..Trace..(11")
February 25th - 39°F/10°F...0.00"....70%..0.0"...(8")
February 26th - 33°F/21°F...0.96"....0%...7.1"...(7")
February 27th - 32°F/10°F...0.07"....20%..0.7"...(14")
February 28th - 16°F/2°F....0.01"....20%..0.1"...(13")
February 29th - 25°F/-8°F...0.17"....60%..2.4"...(12")




February normal high temperature mean - 32.1°F
February '08 high temperature mean - 32.2°F
February '08 high temperature departure - 0.1°F above normal

February normal low temperature mean - 17.2°F
February '08 low temperature mean - 15.5°F
February '08 low temperature departure - 1.7°F below normal

February normal temperature mean - 24.7°F
February '08 temperature mean - 23.8°F
February '08 temperature departure - 0.9°F below normal





February 2008 precipitation - 8.62"
Days with at least a trace of precipitation - 26
Days with measurable precipitation - 19

February 2008 snowfall - 33.0"

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Regional Review

February 2008 was mild and extremely wet in the Northeast region. According to the National Climatic Data Center, the Northeast experienced its 42nd warmest February on record and its wettest February on record. Vermont, Connecticut, Massachusetts and Rhode Island all had their wettest February on record. New York and Pennsylvania both had their second wettest February on record while New Jersey New Hampshire and Maine all logged a top ten wettest February. The three month winter period brought the Northeast its 26th warmest winter on record as well as its 5th wettest winter on record.

The month began with a strong winter storm over the region with low pressure taking a path directly through the center of the region. Snow fell over northern New York and New England with an icy mix of precipitation over the central sections. To the south the story was heavy rainfall and a few thunderstorms that were able to pop up in a warm unstable layer that was able to push into extreme southeastern Pennsylvania and southern New Jersey. The next day, Groundhog Day, the furry rodent saw its shadow. According to folklore, this meant a continuation of 6 more weeks of Winter. For the next several days the weather pattern over the Northeast was rather benign with only a couple of weak disturbances skirting by to the north bringing some light precipitation mainly to northern sections.

By Tuesday and Wednesday, the 5th and 6th of the month, a cold front dropped over the region as several waves of low pressure moved along it. This brought another round of snow and ice to the north with rain to the south, once again. Snowfall amounts of up to a foot fell from the Adirondacks eastwards across southern Vermont and New Hampshire. To the south an inch to two inches rain fell, bringing high river levels and localized urban and small stream flooding problems. The cold front pushed through the region by Thursday morning, the 7th, which brought a brief 36 hour period of dry, calm conditions outside a few lake effect snow shower. A stronger front associated with a clipper pushed through the Northeast on Saturday the 9th bringing light snows to the region with accumulations of 1-5 inches area wide. However, a very strong arctic front pushed through the region on Sunday the 10th bringing several lines of strong snow squalls to the entire region leaving lake effect snows in its wake.


The arctic air left in the wake of the departing frontal boundary would set the stage for yet another strong winter storm that would effect the region Tuesday the 12th and Wednesday the 13th. This storm would once again take a track that would bisect the region, bringing snow to northern areas, snow to ice to central areas and snow to ice to rain across the southern sections. Once again, up to a foot of snow accumulated over the northern sections of the region with lesser amounts towards the south where precipitation had changed over to a mix or rain. QPF amounts of 1 to 2 inches fell area wide once again with this system, already the 3rd such storm during the 1st two weeks of the month. A weak clipper system would move through the Northeast on Friday the 15th bringing lighter snows to the northern sections of the region and not much else further south. A spring-like storm would move through the Northeast on Sunday and Monday, the 17-18th, bringing mainly rain to the region with frozen and freezing precipitation confined to northern New England, but even here precipitation would eventually change to plain rain.

Following this system a pronounced pattern change would take place as the Pacific-North American pattern (PNA) changing from negative phase to positive phase. The PNA in positive phase usually results in troughiness over the eastern half of the United States and is a more favorable pattern for snowfall during the winter. The final 10 days of the month would bring 3 major snowstorms to the region, although some areas across the southern sections of the region would continue to see rainfall.

Wednesday the 20th would bring a weak clipper system that would effect mainly the extreme southern sections with light snowfall of 1 to 4 inches. A cold airmass left in this clipper systems' wake would set the stage for a major winter storm that would pull through the heart of the Northeast on Friday the 22nd and Saturday the 23rd. Northern Maine would escape this storm, however across northern Pennsylvania, eastwards to interior southern New England anywhere from 8 inches to a foot of snow would fall with this system. To the immediate north a solid 4 to 8 inches would fall while to the south snow would eventually mix with freezing rain and rain, limiting accumulations.

The second major snowstorm would move through the region on the 26th and 27th, once again bringing up to a foot or more of snowfall to the region from upstate New York northeastwards into New England. Ice would be less of a problem with this storm with precipitation type being mainly rain or snow.

With a deep snowcover over the region the Northeast would see it's coldest night on the 29th of the month. Areas of northern Maine would drop to near -40°F with many other areas across the Northeast seeing below zero morning lows. Later that day a strong clipper system would move through the Northeast bringing the 3rd major snowstorm to the region. Although the heaviest snow amounts would fall over New England after midnight on the 1st of March.

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National Overview

The February average temperature for the contiguous United States was 34.9°F, or 0.2°F above normal, the 52nd warmest February on record. It was also the 31st wettest February on record as an average of 2.3" of precipitation fell, which is 0.3" above normal.

Regionally, much of the country was near normal temperature-wise except for the Southeast (above normal) and the Upper Midwest/Western Great Lakes region (below normal). Precipitation wise, only the Northwest region saw below normal levels of precipitation. The four corners region, western Great Lakes/Upper Midwest and the Mid-Mississippi Valley/Ohio Valley region saw above normal precipitation while the Northeast saw its wettest February on record. As mentioned above, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts and Vermont all saw their wettest February on record. Several cities in the Northeast also broke their monthly precipitation records, in some cases by a wide margin. Portland, Maine recorded 11.75" of precipitation which is more than 3 inches greater than their previous record. Also of note, Allentown, Pennsylvania broke their wettest February by more than 2 inches, recording 7.60" for the month. This wet weather extended west-southwestward to Missouri along a very pronounced storm track that varied little during the month. Missouri recorded their 5th wettest February on record, Illinois their 2nd, Indiana their 5th and Ohio their 3rd.




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Regional Forecast

High pressure will be in control of the sensible weather until later tonight, bringing mostly clear skies to the Northeast. Then low pressure developing in the Southern Plains will bring a variety of weather to the region starting after midnight tonight lasting into Thursday night. Much colder air moves in behind this low as it pulls into Canada. Zonal flow sets up over the contiguous United States by Friday bringing a fast west to east moving system to the southern portions of the region. Chilly weather continues into the weekend as the jet stream buckles to the west that could potentially spawn a more significant storm system to effect the region with wintry weather late Sunday night into the beginning of next week.


High pressure over the region will make for mostly sunny skies for much of the region. Some renegade cloudiness will exist over eastern Maine and the higher terrain of northern New England this morning, but these should dissipate as the day wears on. High clouds will begin to move into western sections after noon but will not dampen the sun much. Temperatures will be near to slightly below normal levels for mid March with high’s reaching into the mid 40’s to low 50’s along the coastal plain. Over the interior temperatures will range from the mid to upper 40’s over southern Pennsylvania with highs in the low 40’s over the northern half of the commonwealth. Low 40’s will also be common across south-central New York eastwards to interior southern and central New England, aside from some upper 30’s across the higher elevations of the Catskills and Berkshires. Further north over northern New York and New England temperatures will rise into the mid 30’s with the higher terrain likely remaining below freezing. Winds will be out of the north to northwest over New England at 10-20 mph with some higher gusts during the morning with slackening winds by late in the afternoon. Elsewhere winds will be light and variable.

Deeper moisture begins to spread into the Northeast tonight with high clouds lowering and thickening over western sections during the evening hours and precipitation moving in around midnight. Precipitation will reach central Pennsylvania and the Niagara Frontier by daybreak. Most will fall as rain, however, some pockets of freezing rain and sleet over the northwest mountains of Pennsylvania is possible. Further east over the remainder Pennsylvania, New Jersey and New York, excluding the far northern sections, clouds will be on the increase. Much of New England will spend the night under mostly clear skies. Temperatures will range from the mid to upper 30’s across southern Pennsylvania and along the coastal plain. Further north and east temperatures will likely fall below freezing with lows dropping into the 20’s from northeastern Pennsylvania, central New York and interior southern New England. Northern New York and New England will fall into the teens with ideal radiational cooling conditions expected. Winds will be light and variable over much of the region although they will be increasing out of the south and southeast over western Pennsylvania.


Clouds and precipitation will continue to slowly overspread the Northeast during the day on Tuesday. Again, most of the precipitation will fall as rain, but across the higher terrain of northern Pennsylvania and south-central New York, a wintry mix is possible. Western sections have the best chance of seeing icy conditions during the morning hours before warmer air floods into the area while eastern sections stand the best chance of seeing any mixing of precipitation during the late afternoon as precipitation moves into very dry air which carries with it near freezing wet-bulb temperatures. Across southern Pennsylvania the rain will fall heavy at times with amounts approaching over an inch, especially across the southwestern corner of the commonwealth. Further north and east the progression the cloud and precipitation shield will be slowed by confluence aloft and high pressure at the surface. Much of New England will see a mostly sunny day with high clouds moving into the region from the west by afternoon. Temperatures will rise into the 40’s across much of Pennsylvania, New Jersey, southeastern New York and southern New England. Mid to upper 30’s will be common across the higher terrain of northern Pennsylvania and south-central New York. With clouds over these areas and evaporational cooling due to precipitation moving into a rather dry airmass I’m having trouble believing model forecasts of low 40’s here. 30’s will be common across the remainder of northern New York and New England.

Moisture continues streaming into the Northeast Tuesday night with the leading edge of precipitation reaching into western New England by midnight and the Maine stateline by daybreak. Much of the precipitation over the interior of east-central New York and interior New England will fall as a wintry mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain. Further south and west precipitation will be in the form of rain, which could fall heavy at times, especially over southern Pennsylvania. The transition zone will slowly progress eastwards as the night wears on with sections of south-central New York and northeastern Pennsylvania beginning the night with a wintry mix that will changeover to rain after midnight. Any ice and/or snow accumulations are expected to be light with 1-3” of snow possible and ice accretions remaining under 1/4”. An atypical diurnal temperature scheme will be present over much of the region Tuesday night. Western sections will see slowly rising temperatures throughout the night. Central New York and northeastern Pennsylvania will see temperatures fall during the evening hours to near or slightly below freezing before rising above freezing between midnight and daybreak. Western New England will see temperatures fall to below freezing during the evening hours and hold steady thereafter in the upper 20‘s. Over the state of Maine much of the 1st half of the night will be spent under clear skies with high pressure holding firm until midnight. Thereafter high clouds will move into the area reaching the far eastern sections of the state by daybreak. Temperatures here will fall rather quickly during the evening into the upper teens to low 20’s before clouds move in and put a hold on the drop in temperatures.


Slow moving low pressure finally approaches the Northeast from the Ohio Valley during the day on Wednesday. The low level jet will increase which will act to scour out much of the cold air in the boundary layer left over much of the region. Areas of east-central/northern New York and interior New England, aside from Maine, will see any wintry mix quickly change over to rain as the morning progresses. As one heads northeastwards towards Maine precipitation will begin, most likely in the form of snow and/or sleet away from the coast. Coastal areas of Maine could see a brief period of wintry mix as the precipitation begins but mild maritime air will quickly move over the coastal sections changing precipitation over to rain. The southern half of the region will see a continuation of the rainfall with southeastern Pennsylvania and central/southern New Jersey possibly making it into the warm sector which could allow for better mixing of stronger winds off the deck to mix down as well as increase the chances for convection by late in the afternoon into the early evening hours. Precipitation amounts will range from a quarter inch over northern New England to a half inch to an inch over the rest of the region. Areas of Pennsylvania and south-central New York may begin to run into some minor flooding problems due to wet antedecent ground conditions and total rainfall amounts of an inch to two inches or more. Luckily this precipitation will be spread out over a period of 36-48 hours. Temperatures will be quite mild across southeastern Pennsylvania and central/southern New Jersey where highs could very well reach into the upper 50’s to low 60’s. 50’s will be common across the rest of the coastal plain with mid 40’s to low 50’s over much of the interior of Pennsylvania, New York and southern New England. Northern New York, Vermont and New Hampshire will see highs reaching into the upper 30’s to low 40’s with northern Maine staying within a few degrees of freezing.

Low pressure moves across central New York State Wednesday night then begins to slide east-northwastwards towards the Maine coast. The attending cold front will sweep through Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York and western New England during the evening and into the overnight with precipitation becoming showery and widely scattered with colder air filtering in behind it. From the Niagara Frontier northeastwards to northern New England precipitation will transition over to snow with several inches of accumulation possible. Across the rest of New England light to moderate precipitation will continue with only areas of northern Maine hanging onto any wintry precipitation with elsewhere seeing plain rain. The deep snowpack that still exists over northern New England should have no trouble accepting whatever precipitation falls into it without much melting or flooding problems anticipated. Temperatures will drop rather quickly behind the front with lows dropping into the 30’s over the interior with 40’s along the coastal plain. A similar temperature structure will be found ahead of the front with 40’s along coastal areas of Maine with 30’s over the interior.


Low pressure will begin to wrap up over Downeast Maine on Thursday morning before pulling into the Canadian Maritimes during the afternoon. Deformation axis will be present over the northern sections of Maine where a period of moderate to heavy snow could significant accumulations. Areas along the Maine coast will likely see rainfall ending as snow showers later in the afternoon. Elsewhere over the region wrap around moisture will bring scattered snow showers to the region which could find some enhancement from upslope and the lakes. Areas along the coastal plain should escape the precipitation and for any that does make it down to the coast temperatures in the boundary layer should be warm enough for rain. Temperatures will not rise much from their overnight readings with highs in the 40’s along the coastal plain and along the southern interior with 30’s over the northern interior. It will be rather breezy in the wake of low pressure as well with gusty winds out of the northwest in a cold advection pattern. It will not feel like the first day of Spring.

Cold air advection and snow showers will continue over much of the same areas Thursday night. Temperatures will fall back to below normal readings for late March.

A weak clipper system will move rapidly into the region during the day on Friday affecting mainly the southern portions of the region with light rain and snow showers. Snow showers will also continue to affect northern New York and New England as wrap around moisture continues to plague these areas. Temperatures will be much colder than normal with highs averaging around 10 degrees or more below normal.


As quickly as the clipper system moves into the region it will exit off the coast, reinforcing the cold air over the region. The weekend will remain quite chilly with high pressure slowly building into the region shutting down any leftover lake effect/upslope snow showers. Temperatures will continue to average some 5-10 degree below normal

The next system of concern will approach Sunday night and Monday as a southern stream disturbance rides across the center of the country and attempts to round the bend and come up the coast as a nor’easter. Still plenty of time to watch this potential storm system, but with the NAO expected to going strongly into negative territory the chances are there for a significant East Coast storm system. There’s plenty of cold air out ahead of this low pressure so wintry precipitation types are likely, especially over the interior. Towards the coast it’s more of a toss up but even here wintry weather is certainly possible.

High pressure builds in behind this storm with a continuation of below normal temperatures into Tuesday.


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Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar

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Current Northeast Snowcover

Northeast Snowcover


MODIS Rapid Response satellite photo of Northeast snow cover (12/06/2007)


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Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.

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Great Lakes SST's 3/11/2008

Great Lakes SST's as of 03/11/2008.

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Fillipini's Pond conditions (Lake across street)

11/6: 42°F
11/9: 37°F
11/11: 33°F - 1st morning with grease ice on lake.
11/17: 33°F
11/22: 34°F
11/24: 32°F - patchy ice on lake this morning
11/25: 32°F - lake iced over completely, melting along the shores during the afternoon.
12/1: Patchy ice has been on the lake all week. Lake should freeeze over completely tonight.
12/3: Lake is frozen over and covered with snow.

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March Daily Weather Statistics


March 1st - 34°F/19°F....0.21"....20%..2.9"...(17")
March 2nd - 35°F/18°F....Trace....80%..0.1"...(16")
March 3rd - 53°F/17°F....0.03"....30%..0.0"...(15")
March 4th - 41°F/32°F....0.86"....0%...Trace..(9")
March 5th - 45°F/28°F....1.03"....5%...0.0"...(6")
March 6th - 45°F/21°F....0.00"....70%..0.0"...(5")
March 7th - 43°F/23°F....0.74"....30%..0.0"...(5")
March 8th - 41°F/28°F....1.33"....5%...0.1"...(4")
March 9th - 31°F/19°F....0.03"....40%..0.2"...(3")
March 10th - 34°F/16°F....0.00"....50%..0.0"...(3")
March 11th - 39°F/21°F....0.03"....80%..0.5"...(3")
March 12th - 36°F/26°F....0.01"....20%..0.1"...(3")
March 13th - 43°F/21°F....Trace....50%..Trace..(3")
March 14th - 47°F/27°F....0.19"....10%..0.0"...(3")
March 15th - 45°F/35°F....0.24"....40%..Trace..(2")
March 16th - 39°F/27°F....0.11"....20%..0.6"...(2")
March 17th - 44°F/21°F....0.00"...100%..0.0"...(2")
March 18th - 38°F/25°F....0.06"...20%...0.1"...(2")
March 19th - 43°F/32°F....1.21"....0%...Trace..(2")
March 20th - 45°F/27°F....0.06"...20%...0.3"...(1")
March 21st - 35°F/23°F....0.03"...40%...0.5"...(1")
March 22nd - 40°F/20°F....0.00"...90%...0.0"...(1")



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Updated: 4:06 AM GMT on March 23, 2008

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Superstorm - 15 year anniversary

By: sullivanweather, 3:52 PM GMT on March 13, 2008

Superstorm - March 12th(late morning)

"Storm of the Century" is a most fitting name to a storm which featured a blizzard of epic proportions, comparable to the "Great Blizzard of 1888", a derecho which produced tornados and winds up to the force of a category 4 hurricane, and an unexpected 8-12 foot storm surge along Florida's Gulf Coast. Although this blog is dedicated to the Northeast, I'll try to fit in all areas affected by this monster storm.

The "Superstorm" was the storm that had it all. A classic Miller Type-A Nor'easter, only much stronger. The "Superstorm" was also one of the first conquests of long-range forecasting by meteorologist of the time. A well-forecasted blizzard almost a week in advance was unheard of just 15 years ago. When many meteorologist hyped this storm a full week before its arrival many were skeptical. The only problem was this storm was under-forecasted, most likely due to the fact that few had ever seen such a storm.

As the storm grew near the impact that this storm would bring was beginning to become apparent. A strong low pressure developed in the western Gulf of Mexico and moved across the northern Gulf. Strong convection fired up, similar to a tropical system, as a tremendous amount of upper level energy was injected into this storm. This allowed the storm to gain even more strength, as low pressure dropped at near 980mb. The storm then made a sharp left and tore up the East Coast, just inland, setting low-pressure records up and down the Eastern Seaboard.



For the Northeast, if folks were looking for any indication for what this storm would bring they only had to look to the South, where blizzard conditions raged across Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia IN MARCH! Unprecedented snow and cold pummeled the region as over a foot of snow fell in major cities and snow even fell to the Gulf Coast in Mobile and Pensacola. The mountains of Georgia, Tennessee and North Carolina saw the absolute worst of this storm with 3-5 feet of snow, wind gusts up to 100mph and below zero temperatures. Impressive snowfall totals of 20" Chattanooga, TN and 13" in Birmingham, AL collapsed many roofs and brought down many trees. The only blizzard on record previous to the "Superstorm" in the Southeast was a Great Blizzard of 1899.

As the storm made its way up to the Northeast the storm only grew in ferocity. Widespread snowfall totals of 2-4 feet along with strong winds of 40-60mph drifted snow to 15 feet. Syracuse, NY received 43" of snow. Albany, NY had 27", Pittsburgh, PA 25". The snow shut down municipalities for days after the storm as snow had to be trucked out of cities. Due to the inland track of this storm the 'Megalopolis" was spared the worst of the snow as precipitation changed to rain. Despite the changeover the storm was still paralyzing. Many roofs collapsed due to the weight of the snow weighed down furthermore by the rain. After the storm passed a strong arctic outbreak that followed froze the slush into impossible to move ice.


The "Superstorm" will not only be remembered for the impressive snowfall it brought from the Southeast to Canada but also for the intense derecho that swept through Florida and Cuba. An extremely intense line of thunderstorms developed along the attendant cold front as it crossed over Florida and the Gulf of Mexico. As this line of storms moved through Florida it produced winds of 70-90 mph. A tent city set up to provide shelter for victims of Hurricane Andrew was almost completely swept away when this line of storms moved through. When this line of storms made it to Cuba widespread hurricane force winds were felt across the island with some winds estimated to be as high as 130mph+, or equivalent to a category 4 hurricane. 10 tornados were reported in Florida was the line of storms blew through as well.

Another aspect of this storm that was totally unexpected was the storm surge along the Gulf Coast of Florida. Strong southerly winds ahead of the storm in the Gulf of Mexico piled water in the Northeast Gulf. As the strong cold front swept through during the overnight the winds shifted westerly, pushing all this water into the coast. What resulted was a storm surge up to 12 feet high which struck during the night, compounding the situation. When residents woke in the morning what they saw was truly surprising, a rising surge of water. Many of Florida's 44 deaths attributed to the "Superstorm" were of direct result of this storm surge.

Some estimates put damages from the "Superstorm" at over 6 billion dollars with 248 deaths attributed to the storm, more than 3 times the amount of people killed from Hugo and Andrew combined.

Storm of the Century - March 13th, 1993

The "Superstorm" didn't just make #1 on this list because it was the most ferocious storm to affect the Northeast in the last 25 years, perhaps ever. Personally it is also my most memorable storm, above the severe thunderstorm in August of 2002, above the blizzard of 1996, even above the Presidents' Day Storm of 2003. The intensity of the snow that fell, the fierce winds, thunder, lightning, how high the snow piled up, how fast it piled up, I haven't seen anything like it since.

Days before the event, the storm was being forecast as a potential BIG Nor'easter. When the main energy for this storm was still out in the Central Pacific I clearly remember watching Jim Cantore pointing it out, tapping his little clicker on that storm on the bluewall, saying "This is going to be a big one, about one week from now." He wasn't the only one. Word was spreading quickly about the storm. Local news stations were talking about it. The hype was there. How big will it be? Tales of the "Great Blizzard of 1888" were being thrown about, which ironically occurred on the same dates 105 years previous. There was precedent, but would history repeat itself?

On a side note, one of the strangest occurrences also happened to me the day before the storm. In school we had been learning about the Cuban Missile Crisis and watched the air raid drills performed in the 60's with school children ducking under their desks in the event of a nuclear detonation (like ducking under a desk in a fetal position would help). Anyway, Middletown has those 12 O'clock sirens which sounds like the air raid siren. My mother had picked me up from school that Friday and we went straight to the grocery store. On the way there, for some reason (it wasn't noon, it was a quarter after 3) those air raid sirens were going off. So I'm thinking to myself "Okay, this is weird...". Suddenly the Emergency Broadcast System comes on the radio with that long "BOOOOOO...P" sound. When the man with the creepy voice cuts in and usually says "This is only a test of the emergency broadcast system. In the event of a real emergency..." and so on didn't come on, it was even more weird. Then when the man with the creepy voice comes on and says "This is a real emergency." I as like "Oh no we're getting bombed!!"

As it turned out it was a warning for the impending blizzard with expectations of 2-4 feet of snow. Pretty scary, huh? lol

The night before the storm the scope of what this storm would bring was becoming obvious. CNN and The Weather Channel showed video of Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia experiencing white out conditions, snowfall of 6-10 inches, rivaling the most snow from all previous record snowfalls and the storm was only half over!

I woke up very early that Saturday morning expecting to see snow falling but I was early by a couple of hours. The local news cut to non-stop coverage of the storm during its onset. We had already gone through 'the biggest Nor'easter in 50 years' 3 months earlier (#11 event) so the assumption was this was going to be much worse. I watched as the snow advanced northward with reports from areas to the south, only a few hours into the storm, of 4-6 inches already. By the time the snow started in Middletown, just before 9 in the morning, areas around New York City had 3-6 inches, areas near Philadelphia had up to 10 inches and it was snowing harder by the minute.

Once the snow started the scene shifted from sitting in front of the television, to being outside. Snow engulfed the air. It seemed as though every parcel of air was filled with a snowflake. First they were small flakes, but gradually gained sized before the wind made everything a white blur. By noon about 6 inches lay on the ground, and only 2 hours later there was over a foot. It was a near constant whiteout from just before noon until 6 in the evening. Some very amazing events occurred during this storm as well. Thundersnow was prevalent throughout the afternoon. During the mid-afternoon one thunderstorm in particular demonstrated the true intensity of this storm.

The sky grew dark, dark enough to 'see' the flashes on lightning in the sky. The snow was falling so hard and the light so filtered it was more like a greyout, that brightened to a whiteout during the lightning, which was quite frequent. The thunder was muffled by the snow but loud none-the-less. Small hail even fell during the thunderstorm. It certainly wasn't sleet for the hail was about 3 times the size of a sleet pellet. Even despite this hail during this storm snow still accumulated 6 inches for the hour in which this storm occurred. The wind was most fierce during this storm as well. Due to the reduced visibilities no trees were within view to use as a gauge to how strong the wind actually was. But it was strong enough to rip the siding off a neighbors house.

The snow continued at an incredible rate until tapering around 6:30 that evening as out location got dry slotted. When the snow initially tapered off 27" of snow lay on the ground from this storm. 27 inches in 9 hours, 21 inches in the final 6 hours! After the snow tapered the wind calmed and an eerie fog settled over the area until around 11 later that night when snow began to fall again at a moderate clip. This time in large flakes. An additional 6 inches of snow fell during the overnight giving us a total of 33" all of which fell in a 24 hour period.

We took a walk that Sunday, a few hours after the storm. Snow was still blowing everywhere and the main road through down was desolate, with 10 foot high piles of snow along the road every so often. There were snow drifts over 8 feet high and could only be removed by front loaders and dump trucks. I remember Syracuse still getting pounded that morning and was almost disappointed that the snow was over where I lived. For some reason, you don't want these events to come to an end sometimes...

There's so many other memories from this storm that would be too much to list here. So I'll stop now and let everyone else give their story of this storm because everyone I'm sure has one, even if they didn't get hit...

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"Superstorm" photos

Our car after the superstorm

This photo was taken the morning after the "Superstorm" on Sunday March 14th, 1993. Our car, a Dodge Colt, was buried across the entire front and half way up in the back of the car. What's amazing about this was my mother didn't get home from work until 1:30 the afternoon of the 13th after more than a foot had already fallen. In other words the car was parked long after the storm began.




This photo was taken on the morning of the 14th as well. This view of behind my house was very telling of how the snow formed huge drifts. Aided by a 8ft retaining wall, these drifts attained enormous heights of 10-12 feet in between the decks and the wall. This snow persisted until May due to the lack of sunlight behind the house.




This photo was of me and my little sister taken on the morning of the 14th. The wooden stick in the snow was a meter stick I made out of a piece of baseboard because my father didn't want me to 'ruin the meter stick'.


Superstorm - Standing halfway up a snowdrift

This photo is of me standing half way up a snow drift behind my house with the meter stick. The base of the window on my right in this picture is 7 feet off the ground.


Notable records broken

Barometric Pressure

White Plains, NY - 28.38”
Philadelphia, PA - 28.43”
New York City, NY (JFK Airport) - 28.43”
Dover, DE - 28.45”
Boston, MA - 28.51”
Augusta, ME - 28.53”
Norfolk, VA - 28.54”
Washington, DC - 28.54”

Low Temperatures

Burlington, VT -12°F
Caribou, ME -12°F
Syracuse, NY -11°F
Elkins, WV -5°F
Pittsburgh, PA 1°F
Birmingham, AL 2°F
Knoxville, TN 6°F
Philadelphia, PA 11°F
New York City, NY 14°F
Washington, DC 15°F
Montgomery, AL 17°F
Pensacola, FL 25°F


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___________________________________________________________


Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings

------


___________________________________________________________

Regional Forecast

Low amplitude/zonal flow will continue for the next several days over the contiguous United States. This will send a series of weak systems towards the Northeast with one arriving Tuesday night, another on Thursday and another on Friday. Jet stream becomes increasingly meridional by this weekend with the possibility of a stronger storm to move up the coast which could bring a fairly significant snowfall to the interior. Another chilly airmass will move into the region following this storm with Canadian high pressure building into the region for the end of the weekend into the beginning of next week. The ridge will move offshore by Tuesday with return flow bringing milder air into the Northeast ahead of an approaching trough for mid-week.


A weak short wave, responsible for scattered rain and snow showers which will fall over coastal sections of southern New England, New York and New Jersey this morning, will quickly move offshore leaving clearing skies in its wake. Other than this area of nuisance light precipitation for the first few hours of the day, most of the region will see mostly sunny skies with light southwesterly winds. Some high clouds will move into northern and western sections by late in the afternoon and early evening as the next short wave trough approaches from the northern Great Lakes. Temperatures will be near normal levels for mid March with highs ranging from the low 40's across the coastal plain of southern New England to the upper 40's to near 50°F as one heads south to the coastal plain of southern New Jersey. 40's will be widespread across Pennsylvania to interior southeastern New York State to interior southern and central New England. Further to the north across upstate New York and northern New England temperatures will remain in the mid to upper 30's with low 30's over the higher terrain.

Aforementioned short wave/clipper low will move into the Northeast tonight with widespread snow showers across the north which should deposit a couple of inches of snow. Highest accumulations during the overnight hours will be over the Adirondacks and the Green and White Mountains. Further to the south snow showers will be more scattered in nature with accumulations remaining under an inch for the most part. Rain will mix with the snow over the coastal sections where increasing cloud cover will prevent temperatures from falling far from their daytime highs. Temperatures will bottom out in the mid to upper 30's across the coastal sections with lower 30's over the southern interior. Across the north lows will fall into the 20's. Winds will increase out of the south to near 10mph, turning towards the west after the passage of the attending cold front at the same speeds.

As trough axis associated with the clipper system moves offshore some Atlantic moisture will be tapped with a strengthening of low pressure over northern New England. This could bring several inches of snowfall to downeast and northeastern Maine. Lesser amounts will fall over the rest of northern New England but a couple of inches of snowfall are still possible. Cold air advection could also bring some lake effect snowfall to the snowbelts southeast of Lake Ontario. Little, if any, additional accumulations will be realized over these areas. These snow showers should also be cellular in nature as the March sun angle should provide a bit more instability, breaking up any streamers. Otherwise expect clearing skies across the remainder of the region with breezy conditions as low pressure strengthens as it moves into the Canadian Maritimes, increasing the gradient over the region. Cold air advection will also make for gusty conditions. High temperatures will range from the low to mid 40's along the coastal plain. The southern interior will see highs ranging from the upper 30's to near 40°F, except for the higher elevations where low to mid 30's are to be expected. The northern interior will see highs in the low to mid 30's with mid to upper 20's over the higher terrain.

A narrow ridge will move over the region Wednesday night bringing mostly clear skies to the region and ideal radiational cooling conditions, especially before midnight. After midnight, high clouds will move into western sections putting a cap on the drop in temperatures. However, further east ideal radiational cooling conditions will continue. Low temperatures will drop into the teens and low 20's over the interior, with single digits over the higher terrain of northern New York and New England. Some below zero readings are not out of the realm of possibility, especially over northern Maine. Along the coastal plain temperatures will drop into the mid 20's to near 30°F.


Warm advection precipitation will spread into the Northeast during the day on Thursday as isentropic lift increases over the region ahead of a low pressure center located over the northern Great Lakes. Precipitation will be light with snow confined to upstate New York, Vermont and New Hampshire. A couple of inches of snowfall will be possible. Elsewhere precipitation will fall as rain over the rest of central and southern New England, downstate New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania. Mixed precipitation appears to be limited with some sleet possible close to the rain/snow line along with isolated pockets of freezing rain across sheltered valleys of the southern Adirondacks, southern Green and Whites, northern Berkshires and northern Catskills. Highs will range from the upper 20's to low 30's over northern New York and New England. Mid to upper 30's across the rest of upstate New York eastwards to central New England with 40's across the southern interior over to the coastal plain.

Warm advection precipitation will continue to move into the rest New England during the overnight hours Thursday as it clears out of New York, Pennsylvania and New Jersey. A light accumulation of snow is possible over New England as this batch of precipitation pulls through. Temperatures will be slightly above normal due to the cloud cover and mild air over the region.


As the clipper type low pulls north of the region on Friday a trough will swing through the region setting off another round of light precipitation. Snow will be found mainly across northern New York and New England with only an inch or two expected. To the south precipitation will fall in liquid form, although snow may mix in with the rain in north-central New York as well as to the north of the Mass Pike, especially in the Berkshires. Western sections will see precipitation pull out of the area by the late afternoon. Temperatures will be near normal for mid March.

The trough pulls into Maine Friday evening and moves offshore after midnight taking precipitaion with it. an additional inch or so of snowfall may fall before ending. Partly cloudy skies will be left in its wake with temperatures dropping into the teens and 20's over the interior with 30's along the coastal plain.

-----------

Much uncertainty remains for the first half of the weekend as an area of low pressure from the Mid-Mississippi Valley region makes a run at the Northeast. The operational GFS/ECMWF show a flat wave passing safely offshore to the south of the region. However, many of the GFS ensemble members show this system having a significant impact over the region beginning on Saturday. The GFS has support from the GGEM emsembles as well as the NAM. The SREF model has incredible spread amongst its model members. Their solutions range from a widespread snowfall, to a mainly rain event, to the system missing the region completely. There's still plenty of time to watch this system as it is still 4 days away. For now will call it snow across the northern third of Pennsylvania, south-central New York and interior southern New England. The southern two-thirds of Pennsylvania to extreme southeastern New York and along coastal southern New England should see mainly rain, although a change to snow may occur by Saturday night as te storm pulls offshore and colder air wraps into the backside of the system. With the increasing sun angle and due to the storm moving in during the daytime, precipitation type will be elevation dependent within the area of snow with most areas below 500 feet mixing with rain. From the Niagara Frontier to across north-central/northern New York to northern New England precipitation will likely remain south of the region with partly cloudy skies.

For ther second half of the weekend there's still a split between the models with most taking the system east-northeastwards offshore while several other curl the system up the coast to deliver Maine a heafty snowfall. Areas to the south and west should see an end to the precipitation, if it comes at all, with clearing skies as high pressure builds into the region. Regardless of whether or not the region sees the storm, cooler air will move in from Canada on a northwesterly flow. The snowbelts could see lake effect snow showers, but nothing major. Temperatures will likely fall below normal area-wide with the polar airmass over the region.


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Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar

___________________________________________________________


Current Northeast Snowcover

Northeast Snowcover


MODIS Rapid Response satellite photo of Northeast snow cover (12/06/2007)


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Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.

---------------------------

Great Lakes SST's 3/11/2008

Great Lakes SST's as of 03/11/2008.

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Fillipini's Pond conditions (Lake across street)

11/6: 42°F
11/9: 37°F
11/11: 33°F - 1st morning with grease ice on lake.
11/17: 33°F
11/22: 34°F
11/24: 32°F - patchy ice on lake this morning
11/25: 32°F - lake iced over completely, melting along the shores during the afternoon.
12/1: Patchy ice has been on the lake all week. Lake should freeeze over completely tonight.
12/3: Lake is frozen over and covered with snow.

___________________________________________________________


March Daily Weather Statistics


March 1st - 34°F/19°F....0.21"....20%..2.9"...(17")
March 2nd - 35°F/18°F....Trace....80%..0.1"...(16")
March 3rd - 53°F/17°F....0.03"....30%..0.0"...(15")
March 4th - 41°F/32°F....0.86"....0%...Trace..(9")
March 5th - 45°F/28°F....1.03"....5%...0.0"...(6")
March 6th - 45°F/21°F....0.00"....70%..0.0"...(5")
March 7th - 43°F/23°F....0.74"....30%..0.0"...(5")
March 8th - 41°F/28°F....1.33"....5%...0.1"...(4")
March 9th - 31°F/19°F....0.03"....40%..0.2"...(3")
March 10th - 34°F/16°F....0.00"....50%..0.0"...(3")
March 11th - 39°F/21°F....0.03"....80%..0.5"...(3")
March 12th - 36°F/26°F....0.01"....20%..0.1"...(3")



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Updated: 6:00 PM GMT on March 13, 2008

Permalink

2008 North Atlantic hurricane season forecast

By: sullivanweather, 12:29 PM GMT on March 10, 2008

A Forecast for the 2008 North Atlantic Hurricane Season




With reasonable accuracy, one can predict the level of North Atlantic Basin tropical cyclone activity by early May due to a number of meteorological factors that become apparent at that time. However, by March one can look to large scale, slowly evolving oceanic-atmospheric interactions such as ENSO and PDO, which effect worldwide atmospheric circulation patterns, which in turn effect tropical cyclone variability in the North Atlantic Ocean Basin. Also important are close proximity climatic variables such as West African rainfall during the year prior to the season in prognostication (Gray, Landsea, Mielke, Berry 1992)¹.



To get a hint of what the upcoming 2008 North Atlantic hurricane season has in store, taking a look at prior years with similar climatic conditions is a good place to start. Over the previous six decades where the climatic record is most complete, I will use three years with similar large scale pre-season climatic conditions to prognosticate the expected tropical cyclone activity for 2008. These seasons are: 1955, 1971 and 1999. All three seasons were part of a negative PDO (table 1) which were also in the second year of a multi-year ENSO cold episode (table 2), which the 2008 season promises to have.



An analysis of these seasons reveal that overall numbers of tropical cyclones are above normal, but not extraordinarily so. 1955 saw twelve storms in total, nine of which became hurricanes with six becoming major hurricanes and one category five storm (Janet). 1971 saw thirteen storms, six of which became hurricanes with only one major hurricane, although it was a category five storm (Edith). Both category five hurricanes from 1955 and 1971 made landfall at that intensity. Janet in the Yucatan Peninsula near Chetumal, Mexico, Edith in along the northeast coast of Nicaragua near Cabo Gracias a Dios. 1999 saw no category five storms, however, two came very close. Both Hurricane Floyd and Lenny gained maximum sustained wind speeds of 155m.p.h., only 1m.p.h. short of category five intensity. Overall 1999 saw twelve storms, eight of which became hurricane with five major hurricanes.


In addition to PDO and ENSO, which affect wind circulation patterns that contribute to wind shear across the Atlantic Basin, or lack thereof. Sea surface temperatures (SST‘s) play an important role in the amount of energy that a storm could possibly attain. Although there are a few exceptions, normally the SST’s required for tropical cyclone formation are 26°C (79°F) or greater. Both 1955 and 1999 had above normal SST’s within the main development region (MDR) with 1971 having below normal SST’s. Using years with both above normal and below normal SST’s gives a range of expectations for the upcoming 2008 hurricane season.



The total number of storms from the three seasons is 37 storms, 23 hurricanes, 12 major hurricanes and 2 category five storms. 62% of the tropical cyclones to have formed during these years attained hurricane force with 32% becoming major hurricanes. This is also above the long term mean of 58% of storms becoming hurricanes and 25% becoming major hurricanes. When taking into account 1955 and 1999, which had above normal SST’s, the percentage of tropical storms that became hurricanes is 71% with major hurricanes accounting for 46% of the tropical cyclone activity for those years. In 1971 when there was below normal SST’s within the MDR only 46% of the storms went on to become hurricanes with just one storm becoming a major hurricane which equals to 8% of the tropical cyclone activity.



Another measure of tropical cyclone activity is the A.C.E. index, which sums the square of active tropical cyclones at 6 hour intervals which is then divided to 10,000. Subtropical cyclones do not factor into A.C.E. but none of the seasons analyzed recorded subtropical cyclones. Beginning in 1950, a period of 58 years, 1955 had the 6th highest A.C.E. index and 1999 the 8th highest, recording values of approximately 199 and 177 respectively. 1971 had a near normal season in terms of A.C.E. with an approximate value of 97, however, this too is above the median value of 89.



The tracks for all tropical cyclones recorded during the three analog years are shown by year (fig. 1) and by month (fig. 2). Three dominate storm tracks become apparent when the storm tracks are overlaid. One set of storms recurve between 55-65°W once reaching between 30-35°N. These are typically storms that form in October when upper level westerlies begin to impinge into the subtropics, and storms that form east of 35°W. The second set of storms mainly track westward or west-northwestward through the Caribbean Sea until making landfall in Central America. These storms originate from just east of the Lesser Antilles south of 15°N. The third, and most dominate, storm tracks recurve between 70-80°W once reaching between 30-35°N. These storms mainly originate between 40-55°W and 12-18°N during the height of the season from the 2nd week of August to the 3rd week of September.



During the analog years most cyclones formed during the height of the season; between the 3rd week of August and the 3rd week of September with 59% of the activity occurring during this timeframe (22 storms). A total of only three storms formed during the months of June and July, with four storms forming during the first two weeks of August. Six tropical cyclones formed during the month of October with three of these storms forming in the Western Caribbean and the other three forming in the open Atlantic. Two cyclones formed in November, including the infamous Hurricane Lenny. There has been no out of season storms to form during the analog years.



Now that some facts, figures and variables have been discussed for prior years with large scale climatic conditions similar to 2008 the attempt to prognosticate tropical cyclone activity for the North Atlantic Basin will be made.


Due to the active phase of the AMO that we’re currently in, an active ITCZ should be present over West Africa and the tropical Atlantic Ocean. This should lead to an eventual reduction in OLR over the tropical Atlantic which should create higher than normal SST’s over this region. This should lead to earlier development of easterly waves within the MDR such as storms of 1955 and 1999 as opposed to the later forming storms of 1971. This will bring the highest risk for landfall from a tropical cyclone to the East Coast of the United States, especially from the Carolinas and all points north. In North Carolina alone seven tropical cyclones made landfall during the three analog years, most often with the remnants moving into the Northeast to produce flooding rainfall. Other areas with a high risk for a tropical cyclone landfall include the Yucatan Peninsula where five tropical cyclones made landfall during the three analog years and the Western Gulf of Mexico where six tropical cyclones made landfall. Atlantic Canada is also at a moderate risk for tropical cyclone activity, with five storms to affect the area directly or indirectly. As with any year, the Lesser Antilles are also at a high risk for tropical cyclone activity where a total of eight cyclones affected these Islands during the three analog years, including Hurricane Lenny which is the only hurricane to strike the islands from the east. However, a repeat of this event is extremely unlikely.


Now down to the numbers. In total I predict fourteen storms, eight of which will be come hurricanes with 6 major storms. Early season activity will be limited, with one storm at most forming before August 1st. Most of the activity will occur during the climatological peak of the season with a couple of storms forming in October which should curve into the westerlies fairly quickly. If any activity occurs during the late season these storms will likely form in the Western Caribbean south of 15°N. Areas most at risk are North Carolina, the Yucatan Peninsula, the Western Gulf of Mexico and the northern Lesser Antilles. The A.C.E. index for the Atlantic basin should also be above normal, with a value of approximately 150 (+/- 20).








Table 1: Monthly PDO values.






Table 2: ONI index values. Based on 3 month average of Nino 3.4 sea surface temperature.



Photobucket


Figure 1. Tracks of all tropical cyclones during the years 1955, 1971 and 1999 colour coded by year. Shown in red are the tracks of tropical cyclones during the year 1955, white for 1971 and cyan for 1999. (click on image for full resolution version)






Figure 2. Tracks of all tropical cyclones during the years 1955, 1971 and 1999 colour coded by month. Shown in green are tracks for June, yellow for July, red for August, magenta for September, blue for October and white for November. (click on image for full resolution version)



¹Gray, W.M., C.W. Landsea, P.W. Mielke, and K.J. Berry, 1992: Predicting Atlantic seasonal hurricane activity 6-11 months in advance. Wea. Forecasting, 7, 440-455.


___________________________________________________________


Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings

------


___________________________________________________________

Regional Forecast

Low amplitude/zonal flow will continue for the next several days over the contiguous United States. This will send a series of weak systems towards the Northeast with one arriving Tuesday night, another on Thursday and another on Friday. Jet stream becomes increasingly meridional by this weekend with the possibility of a stronger storm to move up the coast which could bring a fairly significant snowfall to the interior. Another chilly airmass will move into the region following this storm with Canadian high pressure building into the region for the end of the weekend into the beginning of next week. The ridge will move offshore by Tuesday with return flow bringing milder air into the Northeast ahead of an approaching trough for mid-week.


A weak short wave, responsible for scattered rain and snow showers which will fall over coastal sections of southern New England, New York and New Jersey this morning, will quickly move offshore leaving clearing skies in its wake. Other than this area of nuisance light precipitation for the first few hours of the day, most of the region will see mostly sunny skies with light southwesterly winds. Some high clouds will move into northern and western sections by late in the afternoon and early evening as the next short wave trough approaches from the northern Great Lakes. Temperatures will be near normal levels for mid March with highs ranging from the low 40's across the coastal plain of southern New England to the upper 40's to near 50°F as one heads south to the coastal plain of southern New Jersey. 40's will be widespread across Pennsylvania to interior southeastern New York State to interior southern and central New England. Further to the north across upstate New York and northern New England temperatures will remain in the mid to upper 30's with low 30's over the higher terrain.

Aforementioned short wave/clipper low will move into the Northeast tonight with widespread snow showers across the north which should deposit a couple of inches of snow. Highest accumulations during the overnight hours will be over the Adirondacks and the Green and White Mountains. Further to the south snow showers will be more scattered in nature with accumulations remaining under an inch for the most part. Rain will mix with the snow over the coastal sections where increasing cloud cover will prevent temperatures from falling far from their daytime highs. Temperatures will bottom out in the mid to upper 30's across the coastal sections with lower 30's over the southern interior. Across the north lows will fall into the 20's. Winds will increase out of the south to near 10mph, turning towards the west after the passage of the attending cold front at the same speeds.

As trough axis associated with the clipper system moves offshore some Atlantic moisture will be tapped with a strengthening of low pressure over northern New England. This could bring several inches of snowfall to downeast and northeastern Maine. Lesser amounts will fall over the rest of northern New England but a couple of inches of snowfall are still possible. Cold air advection could also bring some lake effect snowfall to the snowbelts southeast of Lake Ontario. Little, if any, additional accumulations will be realized over these areas. These snow showers should also be cellular in nature as the March sun angle should provide a bit more instability, breaking up any streamers. Otherwise expect clearing skies across the remainder of the region with breezy conditions as low pressure strengthens as it moves into the Canadian Maritimes, increasing the gradient over the region. Cold air advection will also make for gusty conditions. High temperatures will range from the low to mid 40's along the coastal plain. The southern interior will see highs ranging from the upper 30's to near 40°F, except for the higher elevations where low to mid 30's are to be expected. The northern interior will see highs in the low to mid 30's with mid to upper 20's over the higher terrain.

A narrow ridge will move over the region Wednesday night bringing mostly clear skies to the region and ideal radiational cooling conditions, especially before midnight. After midnight, high clouds will move into western sections putting a cap on the drop in temperatures. However, further east ideal radiational cooling conditions will continue. Low temperatures will drop into the teens and low 20's over the interior, with single digits over the higher terrain of northern New York and New England. Some below zero readings are not out of the realm of possibility, especially over northern Maine. Along the coastal plain temperatures will drop into the mid 20's to near 30°F.


Warm advection precipitation will spread into the Northeast during the day on Thursday as isentropic lift increases over the region ahead of a low pressure center located over the northern Great Lakes. Precipitation will be light with snow confined to upstate New York, Vermont and New Hampshire. A couple of inches of snowfall will be possible. Elsewhere precipitation will fall as rain over the rest of central and southern New England, downstate New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania. Mixed precipitation appears to be limited with some sleet possible close to the rain/snow line along with isolated pockets of freezing rain across sheltered valleys of the southern Adirondacks, southern Green and Whites, northern Berkshires and northern Catskills. Highs will range from the upper 20's to low 30's over northern New York and New England. Mid to upper 30's across the rest of upstate New York eastwards to central New England with 40's across the southern interior over to the coastal plain.

Warm advection precipitation will continue to move into the rest New England during the overnight hours Thursday as it clears out of New York, Pennsylvania and New Jersey. A light accumulation of snow is possible over New England as this batch of precipitation pulls through. Temperatures will be slightly above normal due to the cloud cover and mild air over the region.


As the clipper type low pulls north of the region on Friday a trough will swing through the region setting off another round of light precipitation. Snow will be found mainly across northern New York and New England with only an inch or two expected. To the south precipitation will fall in liquid form, although snow may mix in with the rain in north-central New York as well as to the north of the Mass Pike, especially in the Berkshires. Western sections will see precipitation pull out of the area by the late afternoon. Temperatures will be near normal for mid March.

The trough pulls into Maine Friday evening and moves offshore after midnight taking precipitaion with it. an additional inch or so of snowfall may fall before ending. Partly cloudy skies will be left in its wake with temperatures dropping into the teens and 20's over the interior with 30's along the coastal plain.

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Much uncertainty remains for the first half of the weekend as an area of low pressure from the Mid-Mississippi Valley region makes a run at the Northeast. The operational GFS/ECMWF show a flat wave passing safely offshore to the south of the region. However, many of the GFS ensemble members show this system having a significant impact over the region beginning on Saturday. The GFS has support from the GGEM emsembles as well as the NAM. The SREF model has incredible spread amongst its model members. Their solutions range from a widespread snowfall, to a mainly rain event, to the system missing the region completely. There's still plenty of time to watch this system as it is still 4 days away. For now will call it snow across the northern third of Pennsylvania, south-central New York and interior southern New England. The southern two-thirds of Pennsylvania to extreme southeastern New York and along coastal southern New England should see mainly rain, although a change to snow may occur by Saturday night as te storm pulls offshore and colder air wraps into the backside of the system. With the increasing sun angle and due to the storm moving in during the daytime, precipitation type will be elevation dependent within the area of snow with most areas below 500 feet mixing with rain. From the Niagara Frontier to across north-central/northern New York to northern New England precipitation will likely remain south of the region with partly cloudy skies.

For ther second half of the weekend there's still a split between the models with most taking the system east-northeastwards offshore while several other curl the system up the coast to deliver Maine a heafty snowfall. Areas to the south and west should see an end to the precipitation, if it comes at all, with clearing skies as high pressure builds into the region. Regardless of whether or not the region sees the storm, cooler air will move in from Canada on a northwesterly flow. The snowbelts could see lake effect snow showers, but nothing major. Temperatures will likely fall below normal area-wide with the polar airmass over the region.


___________________________________________________________

Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar

___________________________________________________________


Current Northeast Snowcover

Northeast Snowcover


MODIS Rapid Response satellite photo of Northeast snow cover (12/06/2007)


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Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.

---------------------------

Great Lakes SST's 2/17/2008

Great Lakes SST's as of 02/17/2008.

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Fillipini's Pond conditions (Lake across street)

11/6: 42°F
11/9: 37°F
11/11: 33°F - 1st morning with grease ice on lake.
11/17: 33°F
11/22: 34°F
11/24: 32°F - patchy ice on lake this morning
11/25: 32°F - lake iced over completely, melting along the shores during the afternoon.
12/1: Patchy ice has been on the lake all week. Lake should freeeze over completely tonight.
12/3: Lake is frozen over and covered with snow.

___________________________________________________________


March Daily Weather Statistics


March 1st - 34°F/19°F....0.21"....20%..2.9"...(17")
March 2nd - 35°F/18°F....Trace....80%..0.1"...(16")
March 3rd - 53°F/17°F....0.03"....30%..0.0"...(15")
March 4th - 41°F/32°F....0.86"....0%...Trace..(9")
March 5th - 45°F/28°F....1.03"....5%...0.0"...(6")
March 6th - 45°F/21°F....0.00"....70%..0.0"...(5")
March 7th - 43°F/23°F....0.74"....30%..0.0"...(5")
March 8th - 41°F/28°F....1.33"....5%...0.1"...(4")
March 9th - 31°F/19°F....0.03"....40%..0.2"...(3")
March 10th - 34°F/16°F....0.00"....50%..0.0"...(3")



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Updated: 12:22 PM GMT on March 12, 2008

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Major storm to bring flooding and heavy snow.

By: sullivanweather, 7:25 PM GMT on March 07, 2008

Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings

------

Commentary

Sorry for the delay today with the blog. There's much to discuss with this storm system and I wanted to make sure I covered all bases.

I expect that I will complete the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season forecast sometime over the next 3-4 days and should have it posted here hopefully on March 9th or 10th. I'll let that blog run for several days with the regional forecast, as always. Then on March 13th I plan on posting a 15th anniversary blog on the Superstorm of 1993. Hard to imagine it's been 15 years since that storm and I'm sure we all remember it like it was yesterday. So those are my plans for the upcoming 10 days. I hope that I could meet my personally set deadlines, especially for the Superstorm blog.



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Regional Forecast


A complex moisture laden low pressure system is bearing down on the Northeast for the second time in five days just as the region ended its wettest February on record. As usual with strong March low pressure systems, it will be a dynamic storm with both wintry and spring like weather. The main concerns with this storm will be heavy wet snow on the western and northern fringes of the precipitation shield and significant flooding to the east of the low pressure track. Other concerns range from the possibility for thunderstorms if the warm unstable layer can make it into the region, coastal flooding with a strong southerly flow combined with high astronomical tides, a band of freezing rain and/or sleet within the transition zone and the possibility for roof collapse across northern New England where incredible snow packs have built up. Low pressure clears the area by Sunday morning with snow showers and flurries left in its wake aided by the lakes and higher terrain. High pressure building into the region will slowly end this activity by late in the day. This high will bring dry weather through Tuesday morning although lots of mid and high level cloudiness with be present with temperatures running below seasonable norms. Clipper low moves through the region Tuesday night and Wednesday bringing light precipitation across the region. The next trough approaches for Thursday night and Friday with a better chance for significant precipitation in the form of a cold frontal passage.


Lots to discuss in the short term as meridional flow over the center of the country spawns two separate low pressures that will ride up the Eastern Seaboard into the region, providing a variety of high impact weather. The first wave of low pressure will move into the region this afternoon and this evening as isentropic lift increases and deeper moisture advects northward. This initial batch of precipitation will be a light to moderate stratiform type precipitation, bringing a half inch to an inch of QPF. North and west of a line extending from Youngstown, OH to Bradford, PA to Syracuse, NY to Burlington, VT to Houlton, ME should see primarily snow. These areas will likely see 4 to 8 inches of snowfall with this initial batch of precipitation. To the immediate southeast of this line a mixture of all precipitation types is possible. During the daylight hours it will most likely be either rain or snow due to above freezing boundary layer temperatures but a few hours after dusk precipitation will also all in the form of freezing rain and sleet. A light accretion of ice is possible of trees and power lines, but this shouldn't cause too much of a problem. Further south and east where precipitation will fall as rain minor flooding will ensue due to already saturated ground and high river flows. A brief break is expected in the steady precipitation after midnight into early Saturday morning across the Northeast except for the northwestern sections where deformation banding will keep steady light to moderate snows going throughout the entire storm.

Most previous questions as to the evolution of this storm have been mostly answered now, including the track of low pressure at the surface as well as the track of low pressure at the 850/700mb level, axis of heaviest precipitation and thunderstorm potential.

The 850mb low pressure will track up along the spine of the Appalachian Mountains which will delineate where the transition zone will set up. To the north and west of the track of this low pressure will be where precipitation falls primarily as snowfall, although some sleet may mix in. The 700mb low pressure will track just northwest of the 850mb low with areas to the northwest of the track of the 700mb low seeing the heaviest snowfall. Up to a foot of additional snowfall is a distinct possibility within this zone which will extend from extreme northwestern Pennsylvania to the Niagara Frontier across Lake Ontario into southern Canada, but including northern areas of New York from the northern Adirondacks to the St.Lawrence Valley and northern Maine. Northern New York and New England are running incredible snow packs and any additional heavy snowfall may very well cause roof collapse. Areas just south of the main axis of heavy snowfall will also see a wintry mix of precipitation which will cause the same problems with roof collapse, as well as problems due to ice accretion on trees and power lines. The rain/snow line will also start to progress southeastwards during Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening with rain changing to ice and snow with light to moderate accumulations possible.

Further to the south and east where precipitation will fall as rain the main concern will be flooding, which will very likely be major, especially across southern New England. A strong southerly low level jet to the tune of 60-80kts over the region will result in tremendous low level convergence over the region with one to three inches of rainfall expected across much of eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, southeastern New York and central/southern New England. Another concern is the 2-6 inches of water content within the remaining snow pack across many of the catch basins of area waterways. Many area rivers are already near or above flood stage and some rivers are still rising from the storm that moved through on Tuesday and Wednesday. The Susquehanna, Delaware, Hudson River tributaries, Housatonic and Connecticut rivers will all be susceptible to moderate to major flooding. Areas of southern and downeast Maine may also see minor flooding although a deep snow pack should be able to take on much of what rain falls. Here mainly nuisance flooding will result due to culverts, ditches and storm drains clogged with snow.

Another concern is the possibility for convection as the mid level low center moves into the region Saturday afternoon and evening. There will be elevated instability with mid-level cape values reaching 500 J/kg2 over New Jersey, extreme southeastern New York and southern New England. A narrow squall line could be forced along the cold frontal boundary as it pulls through these areas which may result in severe wind gusts as strong winds above the deck gets mixed down to the surface within the convection. With very high precipitable water values over the region flash flooding will be a concern as well as very heavy amounts of rainfall may occur in a short period of time.

Coastal flooding will also be of concern with a strong prolonged southerly flow over the open waters of the Atlantic piling water up along the south facing coastal areas. This combined with high astronomical tides and high surf will result in overwash and areas of minor coastal flooding.

The whole system will wrap up over the Northeast Saturday night with cold air being drawn into the backside of the system changing much of the rain over to snow across areas of upstate New York and central/northern New England. The upper trough will tilt negative and cut off from the main flow with the surface low pressure occluding pushing the southerly jet offshore and into the Canadian Maritimes, dryslotting areas of southern New England, bringing an end to the precipitation here. Northern New York and New England will continue to receive steady snowfall in the throwal with several additional inches of accumulation possible. Another concern will be for flash freezing as temperatures rapidly drop during the evening and overnight hours. With all of the rainfall much of the residual salt will be washed from area roadways so very slippery conditions will quickly develop.

The storm pulls into Atlantic Canada during the day on Sunday with wraparound precipitation slowly winding down as the day progresses and high pressure builds into the region from the Ohio Valley. Temperatures will fall to early February levels as opposed to expected readings for early March in the wake of the storm.

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___________________________________________________________

Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar

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Current Northeast Snowcover

Northeast Snowcover


MODIS Rapid Response satellite photo of Northeast snow cover (12/06/2007)


___________________________________________________________

Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.

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Great Lakes SST's 2/17/2008

Great Lakes SST's as of 02/17/2008.

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Fillipini's Pond conditions (Lake across street)

11/6: 42°F
11/9: 37°F
11/11: 33°F - 1st morning with grease ice on lake.
11/17: 33°F
11/22: 34°F
11/24: 32°F - patchy ice on lake this morning
11/25: 32°F - lake iced over completely, melting along the shores during the afternoon.
12/1: Patchy ice has been on the lake all week. Lake should freeeze over completely tonight.
12/3: Lake is frozen over and covered with snow.

___________________________________________________________


March Daily Weather Statistics


March 1st - 34°F/19°F....0.21"....20%..2.9"...(17")
March 2nd - 35°F/18°F....Trace....80%..0.1"...(16")
March 3rd - 53°F/17°F....0.03"....30%..0.0"...(15")
March 4th - 41°F/32°F....0.86"....0%...Trace..(9")
March 5th - 45°F/28°F....1.03"....5%...0.0"...(6")
March 6th - 45°F/21°F....0.00"....70%..0.0"...(5")
March 7th - 43°F/23°F....0.74"....30%..0.0"...(4")
March 8th - 41°F/28°F....1.33"....5%...0.1"...(3")



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Updated: 7:31 PM GMT on March 09, 2008

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Another significant storm to bring more snow/flooding to the Northeast

By: sullivanweather, 8:25 PM GMT on March 05, 2008

Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings

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Commentary

As many readers have no doubt realized, I have not been around much in the blogs over the previous few days for I have been hard at work trying to complete my 2008 Atlantic Hurricane season forecast. Unfortunately the weather never stops and never has it been more apparent since mid February as the region as been under threat from one storm after the next after the next.

I figured that if I didn't buckle down and try to get this hurricane forecast done I never would. Just looking at the long range models last week told me that I shouldn't take a break to concentrate on the hurricane forecast but after a few conversations in other blogs about the upcoming hurricane season got me motivated to just work hard on that until completion. I'm still in the midst of working on it but I wanted to put out a decent blog about the upcoming storm for Friday and Saturday since I feel I may have skimped on this most recent blog.

I expect that I will complete the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season forecast sometime over the next 3-4 days and should have it posted here hopefully on March 9th or 10th. I'll let that blog run for several days with the regional forecast, as always. Then on March 13th I plan on posting a 15th anniversary blog on the Superstorm of 1993. Hard to imagine it's been 15 years since that storm and I'm sure we all remember it like it was yesterday. So those are my plans for the upcoming 10 days. I hope that I could meet my personally set deadlines, especially for the Superstorm blog. What's the sense of issuing a anniversary blog days after the anniversary, right?


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Regional Forecast


Spring-like storm that has been affecting the Northeast over the previous 36-48 hours is now pulling into northern New England and will be moving into the Canadian Maritimes later this evening. A weak area of high pressure will build in its wake bringing a seasonable airmass to the region for Thursday as attention shifts to the west once again as another strong March storm system develops in the southern Plains states. Despite the considerable spread in the models it is likely that this storm will spread a variety of weather into the Northeast both Friday and Saturday before pulling away. High pressure from central Canada builds into the Northeast on Sunday and Monday bringing a chilly March airmass over the region. A clipper moves into the region for Tuesday which should bring more wintry weather with perhaps another stronger system by the end of next week.



With high pressure over the Northeast on Thursday expect mainly fair skies and light winds. A weakening trough moving to the north of the region may spread some high and mid level cloudiness over the northern sections of New York and New England. Temperatures are expected to be near normal levels for early March with highs reaching into the mid to upper 40’s along the coastal plain. Across the interior temperatures will range from the upper 30’s to low 40’s over the valleys while the higher terrain will see temperatures rise to near the freezing level. Winds will be light and variable.

Center of high pressure will move offshore Thursday night leaving behind a weak ridge axis over the region. A deep positively tilted trough will dig across the Heartland of the nation spawning low pressure along the Gulf Coast. This will be the next weather maker for the Northeast. There will be an increase in clouds over western sections after midnight as moisture streams towards the region from the southwest. As isentropic lift increases some light snow may break out over western New York and Pennsylvania towards daybreak, but chances for this happening are slight. Otherwise it will be a partly cloudy to mostly clear night for most with temperatures continuing to average near normal for early March. Lows will drop to the teens and 20’s over the interior with low 30’s along the coastal plain.

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Complications begin to unfold as early as Friday as low pressure over the Southeast lifts northeastwards towards the region. Several questions remain as to the eventual track of low pressure(s) and how individual pockets of mid level energy within the overall trough phase up. This will have major implications as to who sees what as this whole mess progresses eastwards. First, I’ll attempt to hammer out some of the certainties and then go over the uncertainties in the storm evolution.

At this time there’s fair model agreement that this storm will be an inside runner. The trough axis will be near 90°W and despite being tilted positive it will take on an increasingly negative tilt as the event unfolds. Being that this storm will be an inside runner rainfall is a pretty good bet along the coastal plain, across southern New England and up the immediate New England coastline up to Downeast Maine. There’s just not a tremendous amount of cold air out ahead of the approaching low pressure and no high pressure to the north of the region to allow for wintry precipitation. With the recent heavy rainfall from the system that has been affecting the region over the past couple of days and the associated snowmelt already pushing rivers to near and above flood stage, more flooding is likely. As is usual during the spring given this current situation the first storm primes the region for flooding and a second storm in close succession to the first becomes too much for area waterways to handle. The Connecticut River is especially vulnerable for this event. Snowfall is also a pretty good bet along the spine of the Appalachians and all points north and west. This snowfall could be rather significant as there will be a good moisture feed from both the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Ocean. This will also be a long-lived event, lasting another 24 to 36 hours as the trough will be slow in its eastwards progression.

Now to the questions...

Perhaps the biggest question, as always, will be the eventual track of the low pressure as it moves up the Eastern Seaboard. It’s fairly certain that it will be an inside runner, but by how much. Several model solutions show the storm moving up the coast within a few miles of the shoreline while other show the storm system moving up along the Appalachians. Should the storm take a more inland path, this would extend the threat for major flooding much further westward. Rivers such as the Housatonic, Delaware, Susquehanna would now come under threat for a major flooding event as the ground is already saturated and there’s still considerably high water equivalents in the remaining snowpack, which has been ripened by this most recent storm. If the storm moves within 10-25 miles of the coast this would give these areas a significant snowfall. So areas from 50-150 miles of the coast stand to see the biggest bust potential for this storm. A snow forecast could result in a major flood or a rain forecast could result in a major winter storm. The next question is how much phasing occurs and where does it occur. Since there’ll be several pockets of upper energy rounding the base of the trough if phasing occurs early, a dominate low pressure will develop early and most likely take the further inland path. If phasing is delayed, the low pressure will remain weaker and further east, with bagginess along the trough and several waves of low pressure riding up the coast. This later phasing scenario would also act to prolong the event and limit how much moisture gets thrown back into the cold sector, giving areas that do receive snowfall a much lighter, but significant none-the-less, event. So there’s many scenarios still in play and much uncertainty remains.


Everything will pull into the Canadian Maritimes Saturday night with a cold northwesterly flow over the Northeast bringing in much colder temperatures. Lake effect/upslope/wrap around snow will likely fall over the snowbelts and across the higher terrain of northern New England and temperatures will run some 5-10 degrees below normal.

The chilly pattern will continue into Sunday and Monday with the snow tapering off as high pressure builds into the region. Temperatures ought to remain several degrees below normal throughout this period as high pressure overhead will make for very chilly nights and limit mixing during the day.

A trough dipping down from Canada via the upper Great Lakes will provide the Northeast with snow showers as we head into Tuesday, although boundary layer temperatures may get warm enough for just some rain showers along the coastal plain. Temperatures will slowly climb to near normal levels for what will be mid-March, although most likely they will remain slightly below.

High pressure briefly builds in on Wednesday as the clipper system moves offshore. By next Thursday a stronger system will approach the region. Orientation of high pressure over New England will determine precipitation type as this storm heads into the Northeast. Long range models are indicating that the pattern over the North Atlantic will be becoming more blocked with time as the NAO is showing signs of dipping negative for the first time in many weeks and may continue to do so for the remainder of the month of March. This will have to be watched as it could bring more winter storms to the region to close out the month.



___________________________________________________________

Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar

___________________________________________________________


Current Northeast Snowcover

Northeast Snowcover


MODIS Rapid Response satellite photo of Northeast snow cover (12/06/2007)


___________________________________________________________

Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.

---------------------------

Great Lakes SST's 2/17/2008

Great Lakes SST's as of 02/17/2008.

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Fillipini's Pond conditions (Lake across street)

11/6: 42°F
11/9: 37°F
11/11: 33°F - 1st morning with grease ice on lake.
11/17: 33°F
11/22: 34°F
11/24: 32°F - patchy ice on lake this morning
11/25: 32°F - lake iced over completely, melting along the shores during the afternoon.
12/1: Patchy ice has been on the lake all week. Lake should freeeze over completely tonight.
12/3: Lake is frozen over and covered with snow. Thickness measurements starting soon.

___________________________________________________________


March Daily Weather Statistics


March 1st - 34°F/19°F....0.21"....20%..2.9"...(17")
March 2nd - 35°F/18°F....Trace....80%..0.1"...(16")
March 3rd - 53°F/17°F....0.03"....30%..0.0"...(15")
March 4th - 41°F/32°F....0.86"....0%...Trace..(9")




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Updated: 8:47 PM GMT on March 05, 2008

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Two significant storms this week

By: sullivanweather, 2:59 PM GMT on March 03, 2008

Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings

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___________________________________________________________

Regional Forecast


A warm frontal boundary pushing through the Northeast on Monday will bring milder air into the region. However, for the northern half of the region this will not last as a cold frontal boundary will quickly move in on its heels for Tuesday. This cold frontal boundary will stall across the southern third of the region as a strong moisture laden low pressure moves up along it. The end result will be a prolonged precipitation event with a wintry mix or snow to the north and flooding rains possible across the south. This whole mess pushes offshore Wednesday evening as a deep trough moves into the eastern half of the nation for Thursday. Another disturbance rounding the base of the trough could bring another significant storm system by the end of the week into the beginning of the weekend followed by much below normal temperatures to close out the weekend and to open next week.

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It will be a quiet day for most this Monday and may even get some folks across the southern half of the region thinking about Spring. High pressure will be offshore with a return flow of air moving into the Northeast. Mostly sunny skies and temperatures rising into the upper 40's to low 50's will grace those across Pennsylvania, New Jersey, southeastern New York and southern New England. Further north clouds will be tough to scour out with the frontal boundary in the vicinity. Temperatures will be much milder than in recent days, however. Highs across central and northern New York and New England will climb above freezing and may even crack 40°F. There could be some isolated pockets of light freezing rain or drizzle this morning but these problems will be alleviated by noon as temperatures warm above the freezing mark. Winds will be out of the south at 5 to 10 mph.

What was originally a full latitude trough with two spokes of vorticity along its axis will break into two seperate features tonight with the northern branch disturbance sliding by well to the north and the southern branch disturbance forming a cut-off low over the Arklatex. The frontal boundary pushing through the Northeast has anafrontal characteristics with most of its associated precipitation falling behind the boundary with only a few scattered showers ahead of it. Precipitation will start as plain rain but as colder air filters into the region behind the front precipitation will changeover to an icy sleet and freezing rain mixture towards morning across north-central/northern New York and northern New England. Temperatures will fall back to near and slightly below freezing across these areas while areas further to the south will remain in the mid 30's to near 40°F.

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Increasing southerly to southwesterly low level jet will help to transport tremendous amounts of Gulf of Mexico moisture northwards over a tightening baroclinic zone setting up over the Northeast. High pressure building to the north of the region behind Monday night's cold frontal passage will help to keep this baroclinic zone in place throughout the day on Tuesday. This cold front will settle to a position across central Pennsylvania to near the south shore of Long Island. The transition zone will lie about 100-150 miles north of this frontal boundary from near the New York-Pennsylvania border region then extending east-northeastwards to along the Massachusetts northern state line and just inland of the immediate Maine Coast. To the south of this transition zone precipitation should fall mainly in the form of rain and will be showery in nature. Within the transition zone precipitation will fall in a steady state and most likely in the form of freezing rain and sleet with any snow confined to near the US-Canadian border region. Highest precipitation amounts will range from northwestern Pennsylvania to central and northern New York State where a half inch to an inch of QPF is possible, most, if not all of this falling as a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain. Elsewhere precipitation amounts should range from a quarter inch or less. Within the warm sector where a light snowcover exists most of this snow should melt and runoff with the rainfall saturating the ground. Where snowcover is deeper, most of the rainfall should be absorbed into the snowcover, however, this will only act to ripen the snowpack for later on in the event. High temperatures will range from the upper 20's to low 30's from within the transition zone on northward. Within the warm sector temperatures will range from the mid 40's close to the frontal boundary to mid 50's as one heads towards the Mason-Dixon line.


Both the surface low pressure and the negatively tilting upper level cut-off will approach the region from the Ohio Valley Tuesday night. There's many complicated factors coming into play for the Northeast Tuesday night and I will try my best to decipher what will happen now and update tomorrow as it will most likely be necessary.

Cold shallow arctic air will be oozing southwards, undercutting the strong southerly low level jet pushing into the Northeast at 50-60kts. Just how far south the below freezing air pushes remains in question, but most likely the transition zone will remain in place from Tuesday afternoon, with the southward push of arctic air being balanced by the strong southerly push of warm air off the deck. This strong low level jet will also bring a very high moisture content airmass over the region as precipitable water values rise from over an inch in the south to a half to three quarters of an inch all the way north to the US-Canadian border. Lift from the baroclinic zone will be aided by increasing surface convergence as the surface low pressure approaches and increasing divergence aloft. Heavy precipitation will continue to fall over the same areas from central Pennsylvania to central and northern New York and extending into New England. With the prolonged period of heavy precipitation, problems will begin to arise. One will be from heavy mixed precipitation over central and northern New York where ice accretion on trees will begin to bring down limbs onto power lines, creating power outages. Further to the south heavy rainfall of one to two inches will combine with increasing snow melt to create flooding problems. Creeks and smaller streams will be affected first, but main stem rivers will also become a problem later in the event.

Low pressure at the surface will pull through the Northeast during the day on Wednesday with the low pressure in the upper levels becoming an open wave. Heavy precipitation will continue over the region until the passage of the low and attending cold front. The transition zone will push northwards as southerly flow at all levels of the atmopshere immediately ahead of the low will scour out any remaining cold air at the surface. But to the north of the low pressure track the transition zone will remain. Northern Vermont, New Hasmpshire and central Maine will begin to run into problems from the prolonged period of heavy wintry mix while northern Maine will see primarily snowfall. To the south over central New England flooding problems will move into this area and expand over central Pennsylvania to central and southern New York as heavy rainfall combined with snowmelt will send many creeks and streams out of their banks. Main stem rivers will also rise to near bankfull or experience minor to moderate flooding. Rivers most at risk will be the Susquehanna, Deleware, Wallkill, Housatonic and Connecticut along with their tributaries. Further to the north the snowpack is deep enough and a long enough period of freezing/frozen precipitation should allow for absorbtion of most of the precipitation that falls as liquid rain. Temperatures also do not appear at this time to get warm enough for ice break-up (usually ice break-up will occur when temperatures average 43°F or warmer for 3 straight days). However, since there has already been a couple of ice break-ups due to mid winter thaws, the ice on these rivers is not particularly thick.


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Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar

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Current Northeast Snowcover

Northeast Snowcover


MODIS Rapid Response satellite photo of Northeast snow cover (12/06/2007)


___________________________________________________________

Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.

---------------------------

Great Lakes SST's 2/17/2008

Great Lakes SST's as of 02/17/2008.

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Fillipini's Pond conditions (Lake across street)

11/6: 42°F
11/9: 37°F
11/11: 33°F - 1st morning with grease ice on lake.
11/17: 33°F
11/22: 34°F
11/24: 32°F - patchy ice on lake this morning
11/25: 32°F - lake iced over completely, melting along the shores during the afternoon.
12/1: Patchy ice has been on the lake all week. Lake should freeeze over completely tonight.
12/3: Lake is frozen over and covered with snow. Thickness measurements starting soon.

___________________________________________________________


March Daily Weather Statistics


March 1st - 34°F/19°F....0.21"....20%..2.9"...(17")
March 2nd - 35°F/18°F....Trace....80%..0.1"...(16")



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Updated: 5:22 PM GMT on March 03, 2008

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Two significant storms this week

By: sullivanweather, 2:51 PM GMT on March 03, 2008

Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings

------

___________________________________________________________

Regional Forecast


A warm frontal boundary pushing through the Northeast on Monday will bring milder air into the region. However, for the northern half of the region this will not last as a cold frontal boundary will quickly move in on its heels for Tuesday. This cold frontal boundary will stall across the southern third of the region as a strong moisture laden low pressure moves up along it. The end result will be a prolonged precipitation event with a wintry mix or snow to the north and flooding rains possible across the south. This whole mess pushes offshore Wednesday evening as a deep trough moves into the eastern half of the nation for Thursday. Another disturbance rounding the base of the trough could bring another significant storm system by the end of the week into the beginning of the weekend followed by much below normal temperatures to close out the weekend and to open next week.

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details to follow soon....


___________________________________________________________

Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar

___________________________________________________________


Current Northeast Snowcover

Northeast Snowcover


MODIS Rapid Response satellite photo of Northeast snow cover (12/06/2007)


___________________________________________________________

Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.

---------------------------

Great Lakes SST's 2/17/2008

Great Lakes SST's as of 02/17/2008.

-------

Fillipini's Pond conditions (Lake across street)

11/6: 42°F
11/9: 37°F
11/11: 33°F - 1st morning with grease ice on lake.
11/17: 33°F
11/22: 34°F
11/24: 32°F - patchy ice on lake this morning
11/25: 32°F - lake iced over completely, melting along the shores during the afternoon.
12/1: Patchy ice has been on the lake all week. Lake should freeeze over completely tonight.
12/3: Lake is frozen over and covered with snow. Thickness measurements starting soon.

___________________________________________________________


March Daily Weather Statistics


March 1st - 34°F/19°F....0.21"....20%..2.9"...(17")
March 2nd - 35°F/18°F....Trace....80%..0.1"...(16")



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About sullivanweather

Thomas is an avid weather enthusiast, landscaper and organic gardener. This blog is dedicated to Northeast and tropical weather forecasting. Enjoy!

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