Northeast Weather Blog

Stormy pattern to continue for the forseeable future.

By: sullivanweather, 5:28 PM GMT on February 28, 2008

Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings

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Regional Forecast


Outside a few lake effect snow showers it should be mostly quiet over the next 24 hours in the Northeast. By Friday a clipper system will approach from the west, spreading clouds into the area during the morning and snow by afternoon. This will be a hybrid type clipper with secondary development likely occuring off the Southern New England coastline sometime during the evening hours on Friday. This will spread heavier snowfall into New England Friday night and lasting into Saturday. A narrow ridge will build into the Northeast fro Saturday night and Sunday followed by a warm frontal boundary that will allow for milder air to move into the region for the beginning of next week. Models diverge at this point in its handling of a complex area of low pressure for the middle of the week. At this point in time it is not known what the eventual outcome will be in this developing situation. However, what is known is a deep cut-off low in the Southeast will form and attemp to work its way up the coast. Some models take this low pressure on an inland track while others have a track more up the Eastern Seaboard. The difference in these tracks will determine whether or not the Northeast sees a substantial rain or snowstrom. the more reliable ECMWF sides with the latter scenario while the GFS the former. The Canadian GGEM model offers a compromise solution. Either ay all global models paint a slow moving/high QPF system over the eastern United States. This system will clear the coast by the end of next week with much colder air filtering back into the region. The potential exists for another significant storm system by next weekend as the stormy pattern continues.

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Arctic high pressure will settle over the Northeast tonight bringing the region one of the coldest nights of the season. Lake effect snow showers and flurries will subside after dusk as capping inversion continues to lower and winds diminish. Clear skies, calm winds and fresh deep snow cover over the region will make for ideal radiational cooling conditions for most regions. Low temperatures will fall into the teens along the coastal plain. Over the interior temperatures will bottom out much low with single digits above zero across the south with single digits below zero across the north. As one heads into the higher terrain and sheltered valleys of the north country temperatures will bottom out in the teens and 20's below zero!


High pressure will slide offshore Friday morning with a very chilly start to the day for the Northeast. With bright late February sunshine there will be a quick recovery in temperatures before clouds start to filter into the region from the west as a rather potent clipper system approaches. Clouds will enter western sections frist around mid-morning and spread eastwards with precipitation entering the region around noon local time. Precipitation will fall in the form of snow with a slight chance for rain to mix in across extreme southwestern Pennsylvania. Snow will make it as far east as a Syracuse-Binghamton-Scranton-Harrisburg line by sundown. Accumulations of 1-3 inches will be possible across western sections where snow begins earlier in the day. Further east, most of the day will be spent precipitation-free with an increase in high cloudiness late in the afternoon. High temperatures will make it into the mid to upper 30's along the coastal plain. Over the interior temperatures will stuggle to reach into the 20's with teens over the higher terrain of northern New York and New England. Winds will increase out of the south as the day progresses, reaching 10-15mph by afternoon.


Evolution of the clipper system begins to get very interesting as we head into Friday night. Primary surface low continues to move along the US-Canadian border while energy in the mid-levels dives across Pennsylvania and becomes negatively tilted. As this energy heads towards the Jersey Shore secondary development will occur east of Long Island. A strong 50kt+ low level jet will begin to tap into Atlantic moisture and advect this moisture over New England. Snow will gain in intensity as the night progresses over New England with rates reaching over an inch an hour after midnight. The potential exists for an advisory level snowfall event from basically I-81 eastward to the NY/New England border and warning criteria snowfall to be met across much of New England, especially north of the Mass Pike. Further south across southern New England temperatures will be marginal and the best lift doesn't intersect the best snow growth region so an advisory level event seems plausable here as well, except for area along the coast where a mix with rain remains a possibility due to a warming boundary layer. Although lowering heights and heavy precipitation intensity could allow for more snowfall than models currently indicate. Low temperatures will remain close to their daily maxes with cloud cover and precipitation across the region. Temperatures will range from the low to mid 30's along the coastal plain with teens and 20's over the interior.

By Saturday the secondary really gets cranking in the Gulf of Maine with heavy snowfall moving into northern New England. Areas of downeast Maine could see a 4-6 hour period of snowfall rates of 1-2" per hour during the afternoon hours on Saturday. Otherwise expect wrap around moisture to bring scattered snow showers to area west of Maine, extending back into New York State. Lake effect snow will plague the snow belt regions downwind of Lake Ontario and to a lesser extent, ice-covered Lake Erie. Highs will range from the 30's along the coastal plain with 20's over the interior.


Low pressure moves into the Canadian Maritimes Saturday night with some wrap around snows extending back into New England with an additional inch or two expected. Outside of some residual lake effect snows most of the Northeast will dry out with decreasing levels of cloudiness. Winds will also die down across western sections where high pressure will build in while areas further east will continue to see northwesterly winds along with some blowing and drifting snows. Temperatures will range from the upper 20's to low 30's along the coastal plain with teens and 20's over the interior.

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Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar

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Current Northeast Snowcover

Northeast Snowcover


MODIS Rapid Response satellite photo of Northeast snow cover (12/06/2007)


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Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.

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Great Lakes SST's 2/17/2008

Great Lakes SST's as of 02/17/2008.

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Fillipini's Pond conditions (Lake across street)

11/6: 42°F
11/9: 37°F
11/11: 33°F - 1st morning with grease ice on lake.
11/17: 33°F
11/22: 34°F
11/24: 32°F - patchy ice on lake this morning
11/25: 32°F - lake iced over completely, melting along the shores during the afternoon.
12/1: Patchy ice has been on the lake all week. Lake should freeeze over completely tonight.
12/3: Lake is frozen over and covered with snow. Thickness measurements starting soon.

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February Daily Weather Statistics

February 1st - 33°F/22°F....1.13"....0%...0.9"...(1")
February 2nd - 35°F/29°F....Trace....0%...Trace..(2")
February 3rd - 38°F/23°F....0.00"....60%..0.0"...(2")
February 4th - 31°F/24°F....0.04"....0%...0.2"...(2")
February 5th - 43°F/31°F....0.52"....5%...0.0"...(2")
February 6th - 48°F/32°F....1.08"....0%...0.0"...(1")
February 7th - 41°F/24°F....0.36"....30%..0.1"...(1")
February 8th - 34°F/20°F....Trace....30%..Trace..(1")
February 9th - 33°F/25°F....0.22"....0%...2.5"...(1")
February 10th - 33°F/2°F....0.13"....40%..2.4"...(3")
February 11th - 17°F/-1°F...Trace....90%..Trace..(4")
February 12th - 17°F/1°F....0.44"....10%..4.2"...(4")
February 13th - 34°F/17°F...1.68"....0%...0.5"...(7")
February 14th - 29°F/19°F...Trace....60%..Trace..(5")
February 15th - 37°F/17°F...0.06"....30%..0.3"...(5")
February 16th - 25°F/10°F...Trace....50%..Trace..(5")
February 17th - 37°F/9°F....0.35"....0%...0.1"...(5")
February 18th - 54°F/30°F...0.48"....10%..Trace..(4")
February 19th - 32°F/16°F...0.01"....50%..0.2"...(2")
February 20th - 26°F/11°F...Trace....70%..Trace..(2")
February 21st - 25°F/10°F...0.00"....50%..0.0"...(2")
February 22nd - 25°F/18°F...0.85"....0%..10.5"...(4")
February 23rd - 28°F/16°F...0.06"....10%..0.8"...(12")
February 24th - 34°F/9°F....Trace....50%..Trace..(11")
February 25th - 39°F/10°F...0.00"....70%..0.0"...(8")
February 26th - 33°F/21°F...0.96"....0%...7.1"...(7")
February 27th - 32°F/10°F...0.07"....20%..0.7"...(14")
February 28th - 16°F/2°F....0.01"....20%..0.1"...(13")
February 29th - 25°F/-8°F...0.17"....60%..2.4"...(12")





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Updated: 4:07 PM GMT on March 01, 2008

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Cold and snowy week ahead.

By: sullivanweather, 8:38 AM GMT on February 24, 2008

Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings

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___________________________________________________________

Regional Forecast


Quiet weather for much of the Northeast over the next 36-48 hours. The next system of interest will approach from the Ohio Valley on Monday night and Tuesday spreading snow across the north with a wintry mix or rain to the south. Much colder air floods into the Northeast following this system on Wednesday bringing a round of lake effect snow lasting into Thursday. High pressure will briefly build into the region Thursday night before giving way to a rather potent clipper system for Friday and Saturday. Cold sticks around for the remainder of next weekend with the possibility of a moderating trend beginning early the following week.

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A few renegade lake clouds and snow showers reside over central New York State this Sunday morning, otherwise most locations throughout the Northeast are mostly clear and will continue to be so for the remainder of the day. The higher sun angle and longer days are beginning to have a noticeable impact on daily maxes with most locations along the coastal plain approaching 40°F despite a chilly start and a modest snowcover. Across the interior temperatures will climb into the low to mid 30 with 20's over the higher terrain.


Mostly clear skies, light winds and snowcover should allow for ideal radiational cooling conditions tonight over a vast majority of the region. Temperatures will plummet after dusk and level off around midnight. Lows along the coastal plain will fall to the upper teens to low 20's. The should see teens and single number easily reached with sheltered valleys across the higher terrain of northern New York and New England falling below zero.


The benign weather continues on Monday as a surface ridge axis will bisect the Northeast. By late afternoon a weak cold frontal boundary could bring an increase in high cloudiness to the northern extremities of the region, otherwise it will be a fair day with temperatures running close to average for late February. High's will reach into the low to mid 40's along the coastal plain with upper 30's to near 40°F across the southern interior. Across the north temperatures will top out in the low to mid 30's, although the higher terrain will likely remain below freezing.

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The Monday night through Wednesday forecast remains extremely tricky at this point in time, so will skip on the finer details in this post and save those for the next once the storm comes within range of the HiRes models. In a nutshell, a rather vigourous low pressure will be crashing ashore the Pacific Coast this afternoon. The surface low will be lost in translation in its trek across the Rocky's over the next 18-24 hours, however the potent upper level pocket of energy will emerge in the Central Plains Monday morning with a surface reflection developing over Kansas. This low pressure will track across the Mid-Mississippi Valley and up the Ohio River briskly Monday afternoon and Monday evening. This low pressure will then move across the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, through southeast New York and interior Southern New England on Tuesday slowing and intensifying as it does so before moving off into the Gulf of Maine Tuesday night as a ~980mb low. In terms of sensible weather expect clouds to quickly race into the region Monday night with precipitaion entering western sections after midnight. The rain/snow line appears to setup along the I-80 corridor with areas to the north seeing an inch or so of accumulation by daybreak. To the south of I-80 there may be a few pockets of freezing rain, but due to the lack of a cold airmass ahead of this system precipitation type appears to be a simple rain or snow scenario, so rain is to be expected. Precipitation spreads its way across the rest of the Northeast during the day on Tuesday with a slow northward advance of the rain/snow line as the day progresses, most likely reaching near the NY/PA border and on eastwards to along the Mass Pike by afternoon. Where precipitation remains all snow a significant accumulation can be expected. Within the transition zone a nearly isotermal atmospheric profile is evident so precipitation type will likely be determined by elevation and mesoscale features within the storm that are impossible to resolve this far in advance. To the south mainly rain is expected. As the storm pulls offshore Tuesday evening and colder air becomes entrained into the backside of the system expect most areas to change back over to snow. There's some indications of a decent deformation axis setting up across upstate New York which could bring a second round of heavy snowfall to this region. Across northern New England the show will just be getting started with snow across the interior picking up in intensity as the night progresses with coastal areas seeing mainly a soaking rain. It should be noted that a slight deviation in track could shift the transition zone north or south from this preliminary judgement. Low pressure wraps up over the Canadian Martimes on Wednesday with all areas across the Northeast seeing just snow as the precipitation type. Heavier snow will persist over northern New England with wrap around snow showers scattered throughout the rest of the region. As arctic air pours down from Canada the lake effect machine will become active once again with several more inches of accumulation in the favored snowbelts on a northwesterly flow regime.

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Snowfall - February 26-27th


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Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar

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Current Northeast Snowcover

Northeast Snowcover


MODIS Rapid Response satellite photo of Northeast snow cover (12/06/2007)


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Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.

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Great Lakes SST's 2/17/2008

Great Lakes SST's as of 02/17/2008.

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Fillipini's Pond conditions (Lake across street)

11/6: 42°F
11/9: 37°F
11/11: 33°F - 1st morning with grease ice on lake.
11/17: 33°F
11/22: 34°F
11/24: 32°F - patchy ice on lake this morning
11/25: 32°F - lake iced over completely, melting along the shores during the afternoon.
12/1: Patchy ice has been on the lake all week. Lake should freeeze over completely tonight.
12/3: Lake is frozen over and covered with snow. Thickness measurements starting soon.

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February Daily Weather Statistics

February 1st - 33°F/22°F....1.13"....0%...0.9"...(1")
February 2nd - 35°F/29°F....Trace....0%...Trace..(2")
February 3rd - 38°F/23°F....0.00"....60%..0.0"...(2")
February 4th - 31°F/24°F....0.04"....0%...0.2"...(2")
February 5th - 43°F/31°F....0.52"....5%...0.0"...(2")
February 6th - 48°F/32°F....1.08"....0%...0.0"...(1")
February 7th - 41°F/24°F....0.36"....30%..0.1"...(1")
February 8th - 34°F/20°F....Trace....30%..Trace..(1")
February 9th - 33°F/25°F....0.22"....0%...2.5"...(1")
February 10th - 33°F/2°F....0.13"....40%..2.4"...(3")
February 11th - 17°F/-1°F...Trace....90%..Trace..(4")
February 12th - 17°F/1°F....0.44"....10%..4.2"...(4")
February 13th - 34°F/17°F...1.68"....0%...0.5"...(7")
February 14th - 29°F/19°F...Trace....60%..Trace..(5")
February 15th - 37°F/17°F...0.06"....30%..0.3"...(5")
February 16th - 25°F/10°F...Trace....50%..Trace..(5")
February 17th - 37°F/9°F....0.35"....0%...0.1"...(5")
February 18th - 54°F/30°F...0.48"....10%..Trace..(4")
February 19th - 32°F/16°F...0.01"....50%..0.2"...(2")
February 20th - 26°F/11°F...Trace....70%..Trace..(2")
February 21st - 25°F/10°F...0.00"....50%..0.0"...(2")
February 22nd - 25°F/18°F...0.85"....0%..10.5"...(4")
February 23rd - 28°F/16°F...0.06"....10%..0.8"...(12")
February 24th - 34°F/9°F....Trace....50%..Trace..(11")
February 25th - 39°F/10°F...0.00"....70%..0.0"...(8")
February 26th - 33°F/21°F...0.96"....0%...7.1"...(7")





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Updated: 12:43 PM GMT on February 27, 2008

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Winter storm on the way.

By: sullivanweather, 9:48 AM GMT on February 21, 2008

Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings

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___________________________________________________________

Regional Forecast

High pressure builds into the Northeast on Thursday, ending the lake effect snow showers currently falling over upstate New York. This high pressure will move offshore as it gives way to low pressure organizing over the Mississippi Valley that will move east-northeastward towards the Mid-Atlantic. This complex system will keep precipitation over the area until Saturday afternoon before pulling offshore. Longwave trough remains entrenched over the Eastern US on Sunday with high pressure building into the region from the west. Cold front from a northern stream disturbance drops into the region on Monday as another Pacific system approaches from the west. Precipitation from this low will break out over the region on Tuesday lasting into Wednesday. Greater amplification of the mean trough over the central part of the nation will help to draw milder air into the region, pushing the rain/snow into the central part of the Northeast. Deep trough moves in behind this storm with lake-effect snow and much colder air.


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Rather benign conditions across the much of the Northeast in the near-term. A few lake effect clouds are over central New York with scattered snow showers and flurries still coming off Lake Ontario, affecting mainly the Tug Hill Plateau region. These should diminish towards evening as the focus will shift west towards an approaching complex area of low pressure.

High clouds from this low are already spilling into western Pennsylvania. These clouds will continue to overspread the southern tewo thirds of the region tonight, lowering and thickening as the night progresses. Precipitation will enter the region by the middle of the evening over western Pennsylvania, which will fall in the form of snow. This snow will move across Pennsylvania and south-central New York State during the overnight as isentropic lift increases over the area in response to the mild air and moisture spreading east-northeastward over the cold dome oof air currently over the region. Snow will make it to the Jersey shore and be at the doorstep of southern New England by daybreak Friday morning. Accumulations across the western half of Pennsylvania should be in the 2-4 inch range by morning, especially the southern half, with gradually lessening amounts to the east and north where precipitation will start later. Some sleet may also begin to mix in with the snow across the extreme southwestern corner of the Commonwealth. Low's tonight will range from the 20's where clouds and precipitation moves in before midnight and along the coastal plain. Where precipitation moves in after midnight lows should easily fall back into the teens. Further north across northern New York and central/northern New England high pressure will hold much of the cloudiness at bay leaading to ideal radiational cooling conditions under mostly clear skies and light winds. Lows here will drop into the single digits with below zero readings across the higher terrain.

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Precipitation will increase in intensity and coverage during the day on Friday as area of low pressure makes it's closest approach to the south of the region. Also indicated on models is a fairly warm wedge of air aloft that will push northwards changing precipitation over to a mixture of sleet and freezing rain south of interstate 80 across much of Pennsylvania. This transition zone will continue eastwards along interstate 84 through northeastern Pennsylvania, southeastern New York and into southern New England. To the immediate north of these interstate corridors there's a slight chance that some sleet may mix in, but it should remain predominately snow, which could fall heavy at times during the morning hours over north-central Pennsylvania and during the afternoon all points east. Northern edge of the precipitation shield should extent from the eastern shores of Lake Ontario, across central Vermont and New Hampshire to the coast of Maine. North of this line there could be an occasional flurry but for the most part it should remain dry with mostly cloudy skies. The real battle will play itself out across the southern portions of the region and along the coastal plain where the warm air aloft will have no trouble pushing into these zones. The big question will be how much cold air will stay locked in at the surface. With high pressure retreating offshore and a southeasterly wind developing, bringing milder air in the boundary layer across these areas, not too much. Hence a changeover to all rain should occur along and to the south of interstate 76/78 and along the interstate 95 corridor along the coastal plain but not before a significant accumulation of snow and ice here as well. Accumulations during the day on Friday should range from 3-6 inches across north-central Pennsylvania eastwards to interior southeastern New York and interior southern New England. South-central New York eastwards to central New England will see 2-4 inches with gradually tapering amounts to the north. The tricky area will be along and to the south of the interstate 80/84 corridor where a 3-5 inches snowfall is possible before a changeover to sleet and freezing rain. Along and to the south of the interstate 76/78/95 corridors a 2-3 inch snowfall may occur before a changeover to sleet, freezing rain and eventually rain. High's will range from the teens and 20's over the interior sections of the Northeast with 30's across southern Pennsylvania and along the coastal plain.


Low pressure pulls offshore during the evening hours Friday, leaving behind a deformation axis from southern New England extending back to central Pennsylvania. This upper feature will combine with a surface trough to keep light precipitation going over much of the region through the overnight hours. As wind direction shifts back from a northerly direction the rain/snow line will gradually push back down towards the coast. An additional 2-3 inches of snow may fall within this deformation axis during the overnight. Low temperatures will range from the teens and 20's over the interior to near freezing along the coast.


Deformation axis will break up during the day on Saturday, but decent moisture will still hang back over the region leading to a mostly cloudy day. A minor shortwave trough will dip down into the region from the Great Lakes region which could squeeze out a few flurries, but otherwise it will be a day to dig out. Highs will make it into the 20's over the interior with teens possible over the higher elevations. Along the coastal plain temperatures will make it into the 30's.

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Snowfall - Thursday night through Saturday


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The Northeast will be under the influence of high pressure Saturday night. Skies will clear aside from a few lake clouds and flurries downwind of Lake Ontario. With clear skies, light winds and fresh snow cover, ideal radiational cooling conditions will be met with temperatures running 5-10 degrees below normal.

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High pressure continues to dominate the Northeast on Sunday. Skies will be mostly sunny and temperatures will climb to near or slightly below normal levels. Some high clouds may sneak their way into northern New York and New England due to a trough passing by to the north over Canada.

Aforementioned trough over Canada will drop a cold frontal boundary into the region Sunday night and Monday, bringing mainly mid and high level cloudiness and perhaps a few snow showers to the higher terrain of northern New York and New England. Temperatures will continue to average a few degrees below normal.


The next weather maker will approach from the west Monday night and Tuesday. An area of low pressure will develop over the Central Plains states Sunday night and slowly work its way eastward towards the area. What initially looked like a much milder system could in fact turn out much colder and snowier for at least the northern half of the Northeast. The ridge over the southern states looks much flatter on models than it did several days ago, which will limit the amount of mild air drawn northward ahead of this system. The storm still appears to move into the eastern Great Lakes which would bring about a changeover for at least the southern half of the Northeast. However, areas north of the NY/PA border appear to remain cold enough for an all snow event, as per recent model trends. QPF looks similar or slightly less than the storm that's currently affecting the area so an advisory level event appears likely.

Low pressure moves into New England Tuesday night and into the Canadian Maritimes on Wednesday. Following this low pressure a deep trough will carve itself out over the Eastern US, bringing below normal temperatures back into the region along with some lake effect snow in the snowbelts.

High pressure builds into the region on Thursday and Friday followed by a northern stream disturbance for the beginning of next weekend.


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Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar

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Current Northeast Snowcover

Northeast Snowcover


MODIS Rapid Response satellite photo of Northeast snow cover (12/06/2007)


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Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.

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Great Lakes SST's 2/17/2008

Great Lakes SST's as of 02/17/2008.

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Fillipini's Pond conditions (Lake across street)

11/6: 42°F
11/9: 37°F
11/11: 33°F - 1st morning with grease ice on lake.
11/17: 33°F
11/22: 34°F
11/24: 32°F - patchy ice on lake this morning
11/25: 32°F - lake iced over completely, melting along the shores during the afternoon.
12/1: Patchy ice has been on the lake all week. Lake should freeeze over completely tonight.
12/3: Lake is frozen over and covered with snow. Thickness measurements starting soon.

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February Daily Weather Statistics

February 1st - 33°F/22°F....1.13"....0%...0.9"...(1")
February 2nd - 35°F/29°F....Trace....0%...Trace..(2")
February 3rd - 38°F/23°F....0.00"....60%..0.0"...(2")
February 4th - 31°F/24°F....0.04"....0%...0.2"...(2")
February 5th - 43°F/31°F....0.52"....5%...0.0"...(2")
February 6th - 48°F/32°F....1.08"....0%...0.0"...(1")
February 7th - 41°F/24°F....0.36"....30%..0.1"...(1")
February 8th - 34°F/20°F....Trace....30%..Trace..(1")
February 9th - 33°F/25°F....0.22"....0%...2.5"...(1")
February 10th - 33°F/2°F....0.13"....40%..2.4"...(3")
February 11th - 17°F/-1°F...Trace....90%..Trace..(4")
February 12th - 17°F/1°F....0.44"....10%..4.2"...(4")
February 13th - 34°F/17°F...1.68"....0%...0.5"...(7")
February 14th - 29°F/19°F...Trace....60%..Trace..(5")
February 15th - 37°F/17°F...0.06"....30%..0.3"...(5")
February 16th - 25°F/10°F...Trace....50%..Trace..(5")
February 17th - 37°F/9°F....0.35"....0%...0.1"...(5")
February 18th - 54°F/30°F...0.48"....10%..Trace..(4")
February 19th - 32°F/16°F...0.01"....50%..0.2"...(2")
February 20th - 26°F/11°F...Trace....70%..Trace..(2")
February 21st - 25°F/10°F...0.00"....50%..0.0"...(2")
February 22nd - 25°F/18°F...0.85"....0%..10.5"...(4")
February 23rd - 28°F/16°F...0.06"....10%..0.8"...(12")





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Updated: 5:09 AM GMT on February 24, 2008

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Winter to return to the Northeast.

By: sullivanweather, 9:56 PM GMT on February 18, 2008

Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings

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___________________________________________________________

Regional Forecast



Very spring-like storm is currently exiting the coast, dragging a cold front through the Northeast that will signal a return to winter-like conditions over the next week. Post frontal trough will keep clouds and some snow showers over the region on Tuesday with much colder air behind it, activating some lake-effect snows. A pocket of upper level energy will drop over the Great Lakes and move through the Ohio Valley and along the Mason-Dixon line on Wednesday, bringing a round of snow showers to the region. High pressure build in behind this system on Thursday while at the same time a storm system will begin to organize over the Tennessee Valley region. This complex low presure system will begin to spread moisture into the cold sector over the Northeast by Friday. With high pressure holding firm over northern New England and slow movement of storm system, a prolonged winter weather event could take shape for Friday into the first half of the weekend for at least the southern half of the region. Areas further north should remain dry with the high pressure in control but as we've seen many times this winter season, a northward trend in the storm could ensue in the models as the event draws near. High pressure will build into the region by Sunday, bringing drier conditions and near normal temperatures for late February.

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Cold frontal boundary in association with low pressure over Quebec will continue to push offshore this evening. There's still decent moisture hanging about the region, so skies will likely remain mostly cloudy with scattered showers throughout the region gradually transitioning to snow showers as cold air advection will be ongoing. After midnight temperatures aloft become marginable to begin to get the lakes involved. Activity will be light, however, an inch or two of snow can be squeezed out over the favored snowbelt regions. Wind flow will be out of the west-southwest, so the Niagara Frontier and the areas north of the Tug Hill Plateau will be favored. Temperatures will fall as the evening progresses, likely dropping below freezing across inland locations by midnight and down to the coast by daybreak.

Cold air advection will be ongoing during the day on Tuesday with 850mb temperatures dropping to -10°C to -15°C from south to north by afternoon. Temperatures will struggle to climb from their morning readings, rising only a couple of degrees until peak heating then slowly falling thereafter. With upper trough axis overhead and several shortwave disturbances dropping into the region rounding the base of the trough carved out over the Northeast, cyclonic flow and decent synoptic moisture there should be widespread snow showers and flurries throughout the day. As one heads towards the Great Lakes snow showers will increase in coverage with several inches of accumulation possible. With the passage of each shortwave the wind flow will turn more towards the west from the west-southwest, so lake enhanced activity will drop southwards as the day progresses.

Brief ridging will move into the area Tuesday night, ending the snow shower activty away from the lakes and bringing clearing skies to most. Around the lakes and across the mountainous terrain snow showers will be ongoing but will decrease in intensity. Temperatures will bottom out slightly below normal with lows in the teens and low 20's over the interior except for the higher terrain where single digits will be possible. Along the coastal plain low temperatures will bottom on in the mid to upper 20's. Winds will be from the west, but will diminish as the night progresses.

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A stronger short wave disturbance will dive down the backside of the trough over the western Great Lakes and move into the Ohio Valley Tuesday night which will become the next weather maker for the Northeast on Wednesday. This system is moisture starved, but is rather energetic and should be able to squeeze out whatever moisture is available over the region as it moves across the Mason-Dixon line during the day on Wednesday. Clouds will move into western Pennsylvania by daybreak and spread quickly eastward during the morning hours with precipitation not far behind. Snow showers will break out during the morning hours and move across the state of Pennsylvania, reaching the coast by afternoon. Despite not having much moisture to work with snow:liquid ratios will be high given the rather chilly temperatures aloft and decent lift intersecting the prime snow growth region. An inch or two of snowfall cannot be ruled out with the passage of this disturbance with locally higher amounts over the Allegheny Plateau and along the spine of the Appalachians. The northern cut-off to precipitation should be close to the New York/Pennsylvania border region extending eastwards to along the Mass Pike. To the north of this line partly to mostly cloudy skies will be the rule with temperatures across the north averaging several degrees below normal. Highs will climb into the teens and 20's over the interior with near freezing temperatures along the coastal plain.

As this clipper system moves offshore Wednesday night skies will be slow to clear over the southern half of the region, which will be bad news for those trying to catch a glimpse of the lunar eclipse which will occur during the evening hours on Wednesday, the last until December of 2010 for eastern North America. Snow showers will overspread southern New England during the evening and could be enhanced as some Atlantic moisture is drawn into the system before it moves out to sea, resulting in minor accumulations of an inch or two along the immediate coast. After the passage of this low the lake-effect machine will once again fire up, but amounts are expected to be light. Central and northern New England should escape most of the clouds and precipitation Wednesday night. Colder air will be reenforced behind this system with temperatures remaining some 5-10 degrees below normal. Lows will range from the single digits and teens over the interior with 20's along the coastal plain. A few readings below zero cannot be ruled out over the higher terrain of northern New England where cloud cover will be sparse.

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As per request, a snowfall map for Wednesday's clipper
Note: Lake-effect not included in this map

Wednesday's clipper


-------


Lake-effect snow showers following Wednesday's clipper will likely end by daybreak as high pressure builds into the Northeast, bringing clearing skies and light winds to the region. A cold airmass will be over the region with 850mb temperatures averaging from -12°C to -22°C from south to north. With high pressure overhead this should limit mixing and keep temperatures around 10 degrees below normal. To the southwest an area of low pressure will begin to get organized over the Lower Mississippi Valley region and will move northeastwards.

Clouds from this low pressure will begin to spread into the southern sections of the Northeast from the southwest during the evening hours on Thursday. High pressure will be centered over New England with a confluent flow over the Northeast which will help to keep cold air locked in over the region for one of the few times this winter season. Accumulating snow will break out over Pennsylvania after midnight as isentropic lift increases. Further northeast, precipitation will be held at bay due to the confluence over the region. Temperatures will average some 10-15 degrees below normal, especially over northern sections where high pressure will lead to ideal radiational cooling conditions.

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Complex area of low pressure moves towards the Northeast during the day on Friday. The region will be in a squeeze play as high pressure and confluent flow over the northern half of the region will give little ground to the advancing area of precipitation. Across the north, high pressure will hold firm, giving most of northern New York and New England fair day, although there should be an increase in high cloudiness as baroclinic leaf lifts over the area. Further south moisture will overspread the region, likely resulting in a prolonged period of precipitation. Warmer air flowing northward ahead of the low pressure system will complicate matters further as the initial burst of snowfall could begin to mix with and changeover to sleet and freezing rain. Due to the high pressure being favorably placed over New England for a cold air damming situation, a complete changeover to rain appears unlikely for areas inland of the immediate coast. North of interstate 80 it appears at this time precipitation should fall primarily in the form of snow, with significant accumulations possible. South of I-80 enough warm air may come into play for the changeover to occur, but not before a light to moderate snowfall. The potential also exists for a significant accumulation of sleet and/or freezing rain as well. At this point in time it is still too early to say with any certainty that this situation will occur, but given the propensity this winter for such changeover scenarios it cannot be ruled out, even for areas north of I-80.

Movement of low pressure will be slower than most this winter season with precipitation ongoing into the overnight hours Friday and lingering into Saturday as the upper level trough axis will remain over the Northeast.

High pressure builds west of the region Saturday night and Sunday with northwesterly flow over the region. Lake effect snow showers will be present in the snow belts with mostly fair conditions elsewhere over the region. Temperatures will average near or slightly below normal to close out the weekend.

High pressure moves slowly eastwards early next week with the positive PNA pattern relaxing and warm air advection ensuing, bringing about a moderating trend.


___________________________________________________________

Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar

___________________________________________________________


Current Northeast Snowcover

Northeast Snowcover


MODIS Rapid Response satellite photo of Northeast snow cover (12/06/2007)


___________________________________________________________

Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.

---------------------------

Great Lakes SST's 2/17/2008

Great Lakes SST's as of 02/17/2008.

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Fillipini's Pond conditions (Lake across street)

11/6: 42°F
11/9: 37°F
11/11: 33°F - 1st morning with grease ice on lake.
11/17: 33°F
11/22: 34°F
11/24: 32°F - patchy ice on lake this morning
11/25: 32°F - lake iced over completely, melting along the shores during the afternoon.
12/1: Patchy ice has been on the lake all week. Lake should freeeze over completely tonight.
12/3: Lake is frozen over and covered with snow. Thickness measurements starting soon.

___________________________________________________________


February Daily Weather Statistics

February 1st - 33°F/22°F....1.13"....0%...0.9"...(1")
February 2nd - 35°F/29°F....Trace....0%...Trace..(2")
February 3rd - 38°F/23°F....0.00"....60%..0.0"...(2")
February 4th - 31°F/24°F....0.04"....0%...0.2"...(2")
February 5th - 43°F/31°F....0.52"....5%...0.0"...(2")
February 6th - 48°F/32°F....1.08"....0%...0.0"...(1")
February 7th - 41°F/24°F....0.36"....30%..0.1"...(1")
February 8th - 34°F/20°F....Trace....30%..Trace..(1")
February 9th - 33°F/25°F....0.22"....0%...2.5"...(1")
February 10th - 33°F/2°F....0.13"....40%..2.4"...(3")
February 11th - 17°F/-1°F...Trace....90%..Trace..(4")
February 12th - 17°F/1°F....0.44"....10%..4.2"...(4")
February 13th - 34°F/17°F...1.68"....0%...0.5"...(7")
February 14th - 29°F/19°F...Trace....60%..Trace..(5")
February 15th - 37°F/17°F...0.06"....30%..0.3"...(5")
February 16th - 25°F/10°F...Trace....50%..Trace..(5")
February 17th - 37°F/9°F....0.35"....0%...0.1"...(5")
February 18th - 54°F/30°F...0.48"....10%..Trace..(4")
February 19th - 32°F/16°F...0.01"....50%..0.2"...(2")





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Updated: 12:23 PM GMT on February 20, 2008

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January in review

By: sullivanweather, 10:05 PM GMT on February 14, 2008

January in review

Bethel, NY

January Daily Weather Statistics

Date___________Hi/Lo____Precip___Sun___Snow____(Snowdepth)

January 1st - 36°F/18°F....0.26"....20%..3.4"...(10")
January 2nd - 28°F/5°F.....0.01"....75%..0.1"...(13")
January 3rd - 10°F/-5°F....Trace...100%..Trace..(13")
January 4th - 25°F/-3°F....0.00"....30%..0.0"...(13")
January 5th - 36°F/9°F.....0.08"....20%..0.1"...(12")
January 6th - 43°F/29°F....0.02"....0%...0.0"...(11")
January 7th - 56°F/36°F....0.00"....50%..0.0"...(9")
January 8th - 59°F/36°F....0.00"....35%..0.0"...(5")
January 9th - 54°F/35°F....0.34"....40%..0.0"...(2")
January 10th - 39°F/28°F....0.04"....80%..0.0"...(1")
January 11th - 43°F/32°F....0.31"....20%..0.0"...(1")
January 12th - 38°F/27°F....0.00"....20%..0.0"...(1")
January 13th - 36°F/23°F....0.23"....15%..2.7"...(1")
January 14th - 31°F/27°F....0.08"....0%...0.9"...(3")
January 15th - 28°F/19°F....0.04"....10%..0.4"...(3")
January 16th - 29°F/13°F....Trace....55%..Trace..(3")
January 17th - 26°F/9°F.....0.17"....0%...1.6"...(3")
January 18th - 37°F/23°F....0.06"....70%..0.2"...(4")
January 19th - 33°F/18°F....Trace....10%..Trace..(3")
January 20th - 21°F/8°F.....Trace....80%..Trace..(3")
January 21st - 18°F/2°F.....0.00"....95%..0.0"...(3")
January 22nd - 29°F/8°F.....0.03"....30%..0.4"...(3")
January 23rd - 30°F/16°F....Trace....80%..Trace..(3")
January 24th - 24°F/12°F....Trace....10%..Trace..(3")
January 25th - 25°F/9°F.....Trace....80%..Trace..(3")
January 26th - 28°F/15°F....Trace....15%..0.1"...(3")
January 27th - 33°F/19°F....Trace....50%..0.1"...(3")
January 28th - 34°F/20°F....0.00"....90%..0.0"...(2")
January 29th - 33°F/18°F....0.16"....0%...0.0"...(2")
January 30th - 37°F/22°F....0.11"....70%..0.0"...(1")
January 31st - 31°F/15°F....0.00"....80%..0.0"...(1")

Temperatures

Bethel, NY January 2008 temperature graph


Jan normal high temperature mean - 27.1°F
January '08 high temperature mean - 33.2°F
January '08 high temperature departure - 6.1°F above normal

Jan normal low temperature mean - 14.4°F
January '08 low temperature mean - 17.5°F
January '08 low temperature departure - 3.1°F above normal

Jan normal temperature mean - 20.8°F
January '08 temperature mean - 25.4°F
January '08 temperature departure - 4.6°F above normal


Precipitation

Bethel, NY January 2008 precipitation graph

January '08 precipitation - 1.94"
Days of at least a trace of precipitation - 24
Days of measurable precipitation - 15

Snowfall

January total snowfall - 10.0"
Days of at least a trace of snowfall - 18
Days of measurable snowfall - 11


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Northeast region


January 2008 was a mild and dry January overall for the Northeast region. According to the NCDC's January report the Northeast saw its 20th warmest January and its 34th driest January on record extending back to 1895. Despite the overall averages the month of January in the Northeast saw wild temperature fluctuations and a few heavy precipitation events, mainly over New England.


January began on a cold and snowy note for most locations in the Northeast. A potent clipper system moved through the region on New Year's Day, forming a secondary area of low pressure south of Long Island which eventually moved up the coast which brought significant amounts of snow over much of New York and New England. Following behind this low pressure was a brutally cold arctic airmass which dropped many locations in the interior of the Northeast to below zero readings. However, this arctic airmass was short-lived as an impressive January thaw ensued. Several all-time January high temperature records were met, oddly enough, one year to the date that many other locations in the Northeast saw their all-time January high temperature records broken. Binghamton, NY (63°F), Syracuse, NY (70°F) and Scranton, PA (67°F) all tied their warmest January readings on the 8th of the month. This impressive warmup was fed by a deep southwesterly flow which developed out ahead of a very strong Pacific system that brought over a foot of rain and six to ten feet of snow to California and 54 reported tornados to the Mississippi Valley region. As this system reached the Northeast a strong squall line moved through western New York and Pennsylvania. Many trees and power lines were felled by 60-70mph winds in the Buffalo and Rochester areas. In Erie county Pennsylvania a 737 aircraft was blown into the jetway damaging the aircrafts' wing.

Temperatures remained above normal throughout the Northeast following the passage of the strong cold front associated with the Pacific storm. Despite the above normal temperatures another storm would bare down on the region on the 13th and 14th of the month, spreading decent snowfall into central New England and up the coast of Maine. Bangor, Maine recorded a record snowfall for the 14th of the month (12.3") with several other locations in Maine picking up over a foot of snow. A couple light to moderate precipitation events would follow over the next several days, bringing snow to the northern regions and mainly rain along the coastal areas. The 19th of the month saw a strong arctic front pass through the Northeast that brought the snow belts their most significant lake-effect event to date this winter season. Lake storm 'Dalmation' dropped 2-3 feet of snow off of Lake Ontario (Fulton, NY - 37") and 1-2 feet of snow off of Lake Erie (Perrysburg - 25"). Snow from this event continued into the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday before tapering. The northern branch of the jet stream would dominate the weather pattern over the next several days, bringing continued lake-effect snow on a mainly westerly wind. The now famous Redfield, NY, located on the Tug Hill Plateau, would receive 41" of snowfall on the 23-24th during Lake storm 'English Setter'. The night of the 24th also featured some exceptionally cold low temperatures over northern Maine with several locations reporting overnight lows of -30°F to -35°F.

The last week of the month featured a pattern change as the northern branch of the jet stream phased with a strong sub-tropical jet moving off the Southeast Coast, forming an oceanic storm that would eventually back towards the coastal sections of the Northeast, bringing Cape Cod blizzard conditions. Snow moved into extreme southeastern New England on Sunday the 27th and lasted into Monday. Many locations saw 6-12 inches of snowfall, however, a few locations picked up as many as 14 inches, along with 50 to 60 mph winds. Constant onshore flow caused some minor coastal flooding and beach erosion. A vigorous but moisture starved system would move through at months' end, sending a warm front with showers south and a mix/snow to the north on the 29th. The attendant cold front would sweep through the region on the 30th, bringing colder air and windy conditions as well as another lake-effect event, Lake storm 'Great Dane'. A few locations downwind of Lake Ontario would receive close to a foot of snow with this event with Hooker, NY picking up 14 inches.



Northeast region temperature timeseries
Northeast temperature timeseries
Credit: NOAA



Northeast region precipitation timeseries
Northeast precipitation timeseries
Credit: NOAA

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National data

Overall the contiguous United States saw near average temperature and precipitation for the month of January. Based on preliminary data, the average temperature nationwide was 30.5°F, or 0.3°F below normal nationwide, making January 2008 the 49th coolest January on record since 1895. Precipitation averaged 2.21" nationwide, making it the 50th driest January on record. Much warmer than average temperatures were experienced in the Eastern Great Lakes region and Northeast with above average temperature anomalies across the Mid-Mississippi Valley region, Northern and Southern Plains. Below average temperature anomalies were seens across the rest of the western states, the Southeast and the Central Plains. The Inter-mountain region saw much below normal temperatures. Drier than normal conditons existed across much of the Plains states, across the interior of the Southeast and up the East Coast. Above normal precipitation was seen across much of the western states, around the Great Lakes and along the Gulf Coast.

Contiguous United States January temperature timeseries
Credit:NOAA



Contiguous United States January precipitation timeseries
Credit:NOAA


The most significant weather occured during the first 10 days of the month. The new year began with a rather strong clipper type low pressure center that raced from northern Missouri to the eastern Great Lakes, eventually forming a coastal low pressure south of Long Island. A band of moderate to heavy snow fell along and to the north of the track of this low pressure center with several locations in southeast Michigan seeing over a foot of snow in very impressive snowfall rates of up to 4 inches an hour. As this storm moved into the Northeast it dumped heavy amounts of snow across the state of Maine with many areas receiving 10 to 20 inches of snow.

Later that week a very strong Pacific jet stream steered a series of low pressure systems into the West Coast. Many areas saw almost a seasons' worth of rain and snowfall in a few short days. Rainfall amounts of 5-15 inches fell across many areas of California with the mountainous terrain seeing upwards of 10 feet of snow. Very strong winds also accompanied these systems as they slammed ashore. Wind gusts of 50-70mph were common across highly populated areas along the coast. However, the highest winds were experienced over the Sierra Nevada Mountains were frequent gusts of over 100mph and a few recorded gusts near 160mph were reported.

As the energy from these systems crossed over the Rocky Mountains cyclogenesis occured over the Plains and interacted with a very warm humid airmass pumped northward on a deep southerly flow to produce a myriad of severe weather over the Mississippi Valley region into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. Over a 2 day period (January 7-8th) there were over 500 reports of severe weather, incuding 54 reported tornados based on preliminary figures. The warmth ahead of this storm also tied or set nearly 100 daily temperature records, including several all-time temperature records in the Great Lakes and Northeast. Another spoke of energy crossing the south spawned an additional 17 tornados on the 10th of the month.

Severe reports January 7th
Severe weather reports January 7th
Credit:NOAA


Severe weather reports January 10th
Credit:NOAA


The month of January also brought near record snowfall to the Pacific Northwest with many locations in the Cascades at or above 150% of normal snowpack. This pattern of heavy snowfall continued into February.



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Global data

January 2008 saw a very sharp decline in temperatures compared to January of 2007, globally. Global land temperatures were below normal (-0.02°F) for the first time since 1982, a full 3.33°F lower than January 2007, which was the warmest on record. Much colder than normal temperatures were experienced from northern Africa, to the Middle East and into China where they are experiencing one of thier coldest winters in 100 years. Colder than normal temperatures were also seen in Eastern Siberia and Western Alaska. On the flip side much warmer than normal temperatures were seen across Australia, where they recorded their warmest January on record. Europe and Western Siberia also saw much warmer than normal temperatures. Sea-ice in the Baltic Sea were at the lowest levels ever recorded in over 300 years of record keeping. the beginning of January also saw blooming flowers in parts of Scandinavia and England where temperatures averaged 3.6°F to 11.2°F above normal.

Global temperature anomaly 'dot map'
Credit:NOAA


Despite the extreme warmth over much of Europe the northern hemisphere broke a record extending back to 1967 for the greatest areal extent of snow cover. North America saw snow cover anomalies of roughly +300,000 sq.km. but the Eurasian snow cover anomaly was an amazing +2.9 million sq.km. This extremely high snow cover can be attributed to many weeks of winter like weather over southeastern China where they are not accustomed to such winter-like weather. Places with the same latitude of Miami, Florida saw snow and cold temperatures averaging between 35 and 40 degrees for 3 weeks straight.

Northern hemisphere snow cover anomaly - January 2008
Credit:NOAA




Sea-ice extent (>15% concentration) in the Arctic was still far below the 1979-2000 mean extent, but has recovered nicely since reaching all time record lows from August-October. In fact, sea-ice area (>30% concentration) is now higher than at any time during the previous 2 years at the time of this writing, although sea-ice thickness is still much below normal. Another interesting item in terms of Arctic sea-ice is a large fracture that developed in the multi-year icepack in the Beaufort Sea during the beginning of December and continued to grow into January. A large ice floe has been rotating in the Beaufort Gyre since that time and has begun to solidify over the previous couple of weeks. In the southern hemisphere the sea-ice extent shattered its previous record for maximum extent during the month of January showing a 34% positive anomaly.


Arctic sea-ice anomaly - January 2008
Credit:NOAA


Antarctic sea-ice anomaly - January 2008
Credit:NOAA

La Nina continued to intensify during the month of January in the equitorial Pacific Ocean. Nino 3.4 region anomalies averaged over the month of January was -1.77°C, a cooling of 0.45°C from the month of December. The SOI index was also at the highest level observed during this current La Nina event.

ENSO regions SST's and anomalies
Credit:NOAA



__________________________________________________________


Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings

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Commentary


This blog is under construction...

___________________________________________________________

Regional Forecast


Modified arctic airmass will settle into the Northeast over the next 24 hours with lake-effect snow ending Saturday morning as high pressure builds into the region. As high pressure moves offshore return flow from the south will bring much milder air into the Northeast beginning Sunday ahead of a developing area of low pressure that will drive up into the western Great Lakes. Precipitation will spread into the region with wintry weather confined to the far north. Cold front blasts through the region Monday, bringing temperatures back to near normal. A clipper system moves through on Tuesday night and Wednesday with a brief shot of arctic air in its wake. Low pressure will approach from the southwest on Thursday and another on Friday. Potential blocking high pressure over northern New England could help to lock cold air over the region resulting in a more wintry scenario lasting into next weekend.

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West-northwesterly flow over the Northeast during the overnight will continue into Saturday morning, promoting the development of lake effect snow. Marginal temperatures aloft, lack of deep moisture and backing flow will preclude any significant accumulations but a general 2-5 inch snowfall can be expected in the favored snow belts southeast of Lake Ontario with lighter amounts downwind of Lake Erie due to the lake being mostly frozen over. As high pressure builds into the Northeast during the morning hours on Saturday, lowering inversions, incresingly anti-cyclonic flow and dry air advecting into the region will effectively end the lake effect. Elsewhere over the region mostly sunny skies and light winds will make for a fine day, despite the chilly air due to a modified arctic airmass over the region. Temperatures will range from the teens and 20's over the interior with highs in the low 30's over the coastal plain.

High pressure will be overhead Saturday evening before moving offshore after midnight with warm air advection ensuing. However, during the evening clear skies, light winds and snow cover over much of the region will provide an ideal set-up for radiational cooling. Temperatures will bottom out well below zero over the north country with single digits and teens over the remainder of the interior. Along the coastal plain low temperatures will bottom out in the upper teens to low 20's.


Low pressure developing in the Mississippi Valley region will move into the western Great Lakes during the day on Sunday. Powerful (50-70kt) low level jet impinging into the Northeast from the south will help to transport mild air and ample Gulf of Mexico moisture into the region. Showers will develop during the late morning across western New York and Pennsylvania and spread eastwards into the afternoon and evening hours. Some of this precipitation will begin as snow or a wintry mix north and northeast of the Catskill Mountains. Highs will range from the 30's and 40's across the southern half of the interior, along the lake plain and along the coastal plain. Further north temperatures will remain below freezing.


Precipitation will continue and increase in intensity Sunday evening, especially over the eastern half of the region where best low level convergence will be. Rainfall amounts from eastern Pennsylvania into southern New England will range from three quarters of an inch to an inch and a half. With recent heavy rainfall and additional runoff from snow melt there could be some problems due to flooding. Main concerns will be urban and small stream flooding although creeks and streams may come out of thier banks with some sharp within bank rises on main stem rivers. Dry slot will also work into the central Pennsylvania and New York with precipitation tapering towards daybreak. Northern New York and New England will see wintry precipitation for much of the night with several inches of snow accumulation as well as a glaze of ice as temperatures aloft warm above freezing, changing precipitation to sleet and freezing rain all the way to the Canadian border. With continued warm air advection temperatures will follow an atypical diurnal trend with rising temperatures overnight. Towards daybreak cold front will enter western zones with precipitation changing to scattered snow showers.

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Cold front continues to push through the Northeast during the day on Monday. Ahead of the front precipitation will be ongoing throughout most of New England with much of precipitation falling in the form of rain, even up into northern Maine, although some pockets of freezing rain may still exist. Behind the front scattered snow showers will develop in cyclonic flow, aided by decent synoptic moisture and additonal moisture added by the lakes. However, there will be little, if any, accumulation. Temperatures will likely reach their daily maxes during the morning hours with steady or slowly falling temperatures during the afternoon under cold air advection. Winds will be out of the west-southwest behind the front at 10-20mph with some higher gusts.

Cold air advection continues Monday night with scattered lake effect/upslope snow showers in cyclonic flow over the Northeast. Towards the coast skies will become partly cloudy. Winds will continue from the west to west-southwest diminishing some after midnight. Lows will range from the teens and 20's over the interior to the low to mid 30's along the coastal plain.

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Remainder of forecast to follow later.


___________________________________________________________

Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar

___________________________________________________________


Current Northeast Snowcover

Northeast Snowcover


MODIS Rapid Response satellite photo of Northeast snow cover (12/06/2007)


___________________________________________________________

Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.

---------------------------

Great Lakes SST's 2/17/2008

Great Lakes SST's as of 02/17/2008.

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Fillipini's Pond conditions (Lake across street)

11/6: 42°F
11/9: 37°F
11/11: 33°F - 1st morning with grease ice on lake.
11/17: 33°F
11/22: 34°F
11/24: 32°F - patchy ice on lake this morning
11/25: 32°F - lake iced over completely, melting along the shores during the afternoon.
12/1: Patchy ice has been on the lake all week. Lake should freeeze over completely tonight.
12/3: Lake is frozen over and covered with snow. Thickness measurements starting soon.

___________________________________________________________


February Daily Weather Statistics

February 1st - 33°F/22°F....1.13"....0%...0.9"...(1")
February 2nd - 35°F/29°F....Trace....0%...Trace..(2")
February 3rd - 38°F/23°F....0.00"....60%..0.0"...(2")
February 4th - 31°F/24°F....0.04"....0%...0.2"...(2")
February 5th - 43°F/31°F....0.52"....5%...0.0"...(2")
February 6th - 48°F/32°F....1.08"....0%...0.0"...(1")
February 7th - 41°F/24°F....0.36"....30%..0.1"...(1")
February 8th - 34°F/20°F....Trace....30%..Trace..(1")
February 9th - 33°F/25°F....0.22"....0%...2.5"...(1")
February 10th - 33°F/2°F....0.13"....40%..2.4"...(3")
February 11th - 17°F/-1°F...Trace....90%..Trace..(4")
February 12th - 17°F/1°F....0.44"....10%..4.2"...(4")
February 13th - 34°F/17°F...1.68"....0%...0.5"...(7")
February 14th - 29°F/19°F...Trace....60%..Trace..(5")
February 15th - 37°F/17°F...0.06"....30%..0.3"...(5")
February 16th - 25°F/10°F...Trace....50%..Trace..(5")





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Updated: 7:17 PM GMT on February 17, 2008

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Winter storm to impact region

By: sullivanweather, 8:57 PM GMT on February 11, 2008

Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings

------

Commentary

My girlfriend has her blog up and running.

Her topic will be (for the most part) "My walk today" where she will discuss our adventures during our walks with picture illustration.

Her blog can be found here

___________________________________________________________

Regional Forecast

A significant winter storm will approach from the southwest during the day on Tuesday. This storm will continue to affect the region until Wednesday evening as it pulls away into the Canadian Maritimes. High pressure briefly builds into the region on Thursday, giving way to a clipper system on Friday. this low will drag a cold front through the region that will set the stage for another, possibly significant, winter storm during the weekend as a southern stream low pressure attempts to turn up the Eastern Seaboard. Northern branch dominates the weather pattern over the Northeast next week as cold regime continues with a deep trough carved out over the Eastern United States.

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High pressure is building into the Northeast this evening and will continue to do so during the overnight. Lingering lake effect snow band over the Mohawk Valley will gradually dissapate as the evening progresses and dry air advects into the area, inversions lower and winds turn anti-cyclonic. Strong low pressure near the Labrador Coast in Canada will continue to produce gusty winds over northern New York and New England into the evening hours with diminishing winds after midnight as low pressure fills and pulls into the Davis Strait. Expect mostly clear skies throughout much of the Northeast leading to ideal radiational cooling conditions. The only exception will be over southern and western Pennsylvania where some warm air advection moisture could bring clouds into the area by midnight with a few snow showers skirting by on their trek towards the east-southeast. Temperatures will be very chilly tonight with clearing skies, calming winds and snowcover present. Lows across the interior will range from the single digits below zero across the north country with some -10°F to -20°F readings over the higher terrain. Further south across the rest of New York, north-central Pennsylvania and interior central/southern New England lows will drop into the single digits with some below zero readings across the sheltered valleys in the Catskills and Berkshires. The remainder of Pennsylvania and along the coastal plain temperatures will bottom out in the teens to near 20°F.


Surface low pressure located in the entrance region of a developing 120kt jet streak over the eastern US will move out of the Mid-Mississippi Valley region early Tuesday morning and ride up along a tightening baroclinic zone into the Ohio Valley by late in the afternoon. A strengthening 50-60kt southwesterly low-level jet will develop out ahead of this low pressure, helping to transport copious amounts of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico into the Northeast. Isentropic lift will ensue and spread precipitation northeastward into the region, reaching central Pennsylvania by mid morning, central New York and southern New England by early afternoon, northern New York and central New England by dusk. Precipitation will be moving into dry air/confluent flow regime, so some erosion of the leading edge is likely as it pushes into the Northeast. However, the column will quickly moisten as high precipitable water values are advected into the region on the aforementioned strong low-level jet. Precipitation will likely begin as snow in all areas except for extreme southern New jersey immediate to the coast. As the day progresses warmer air aloft will begin to stream into the region, changing precipitation over to sleet and freezing rain from south to north across southern and central Pennsylvania and New Jersey, but not before a light accumulation of snow. Further north, precipitation will remain as all snow during the daylight hours on Tuesday with 2-4" of snow expected by evening along the NY/PA border with lesser amounts to the east where precipitaion will be just commencing. Winds will increase out of the east-southeast, although some areas will see north-northeasterly winds due to ageostrophic flow. Temperatures will climb into the low 30's in southern Pennsylvania and along the coastal plain. Further inland temperatures will remain in the teens and 20's from north to south with some single digits possible over the higher terrain of northern New England closer to the core of the moderating arctic airmass.


The forecast becomes very tricky Tuesday night as warmer air aloft continues to stream into the region aided by a 50kt+ low level jet stream coming straight from the Gulf of Mexico. Transition zone will likely continue to press northward, reaching into the interior during the late evening into the overnight. Northeastern Pennsylvania, interior southeastern New York State and interior southern New England will likely see a changeover to sleet and freezing rain with liquid rain moving into the coastal plain from New York City and points south. Further north snow will continue to spread into the rest of New England, reaching northern Maine by daybreak. From the Mohawk Valley into the Northeast Kingdom, significant amounts of snow can be expected with 6 inches or more likely. Just to the south in the transition zone from the NY/PA border region eastwards into interior southern New England an additional 2-4 inches of snow could fall before a prolonged period of sleet and freezing rain sets in. Ice accumulations will approach an half inch some 50-125 miles from the coast. Even further south from central Pennsylvania to northern New Jersey and just inland of the New York and southern New England coastlines the transition from snow to ice will occur much earlier during the evening with significant accumulations of ice during the overnight of up to a half inch. Precipitation may changeover to plain rain by daybreak, but normally colder locations could remain freezing rain even into Wednesday. Coastal areas and along the southerntier of Pennsylvania precipitation will changeover to liquid rain at some point during the evening and continue, falling heavy at time into the overnight. Ponding of water on low lying roadways, ditches and parking lots will be likely as over an inch of rainfall can be expected. Temperatures will remain closer to their daily highs or even rise a few degrees with strong warm air advection ongoing. 850mb temperature rises over the 24-36 hour period will be on the order of 12-24°C.


-------

Snow/ice through Wednesday

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The first area of low pressure along the trough will move into the eastern Great Lakes and weaken early Wednesday morning as a new area of low pressure forms in the Southeast in response to a new spoke of jet energy. Much remains to be seen in regard to the development of this seondary area of low pressure. The upper support for this low is currently over northern British Columbia and will dive down over the front range of the Rockys during the day tomorrow. When this energy hits a dense network of ob sites, a batter handle on ther secondary system will be seen in the model output. For now, the secondary system is progged to move up along the Eastern seaboard during the day on Wednesday, passing close to the 40/70 benchmark Wednesday evening before moving into the Gulf of Maine and eventually Nova Scotia Wednesday night. Deformation zone along a pre-existing trough axis left over the region from tomorrow's storm system will enhance preciptation on the backside of this low pressure as it moves up the coast. The transition zone will still be set up some 50 miles inland, so rain is to be expected along the coast with snow or a mix once one heads into the hills away from the shoreline. Precipitation amounts will be in the range of a quarter to a half inch on the backside of this low pressure. North towards northern New England precipitation from the initial trough will begin or be ongoing during the morning hours with a gradual weakening of the precipitation shield as forcing wanes due to the weakening of the initial low. Later in the afternoon and into the evening precipitation will intensify once again as the coastal system approaches from the south. Temperatures during the day on Wednesday will range from near 40°F along the immediate coast, to the 30's along the rest of the coastal plain and 20's over the far interior.



___________________________________________________________

Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar

___________________________________________________________


Current Northeast Snowcover

Northeast Snowcover


MODIS Rapid Response satellite photo of Northeast snow cover (12/06/2007)


___________________________________________________________

Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.

---------------------------

Great Lakes SST's 1/25/2008

Great Lakes SST's as of 01/25/2008.

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Fillipini's Pond conditions (Lake across street)

11/6: 42°F
11/9: 37°F
11/11: 33°F - 1st morning with grease ice on lake.
11/17: 33°F
11/22: 34°F
11/24: 32°F - patchy ice on lake this morning
11/25: 32°F - lake iced over completely, melting along the shores during the afternoon.
12/1: Patchy ice has been on the lake all week. Lake should freeeze over completely tonight.
12/3: Lake is frozen over and covered with snow. Thickness measurements starting soon.

___________________________________________________________


February Daily Weather Statistics

February 1st - 33°F/22°F....1.13"....0%...0.9"...(1")
February 2nd - 35°F/29°F....Trace....0%...Trace..(2")
February 3rd - 38°F/23°F....0.00"....60%..0.0"...(2")
February 4th - 31°F/24°F....0.04"....0%...0.2"...(2")
February 5th - 43°F/31°F....0.52"....5%...0.0"...(2")
February 6th - 48°F/32°F....1.08"....0%...0.0"...(1")
February 7th - 41°F/24°F....0.36"....30%..0.1"...(1")
February 8th - 34°F/20°F....Trace....30%..Trace..(1")
February 9th - 33°F/25°F....0.22"....0%...2.5"...(1")
February 10th - 33°F/2°F....0.13"....40%..2.4"...(3")
February 11th - 17°F/-1°F...Trace....90%..Trace..(4")
February 12th - 17°F/1°F....0.44"....10%..4.2"...(4")





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Updated: 3:57 PM GMT on February 13, 2008

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Active winter pattern over the next week

By: sullivanweather, 6:26 AM GMT on February 09, 2008

Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings

------

Commentary

My girlfriend has her blog up and running.

Her topic will be (for the most part) "My walk today" where she will discuss our adventures during our walks with picture illustration.

Her blog can be found here

___________________________________________________________


A hybrid clipper low will bring a round of rain and snow to the Northeast on Saturday. This low will quickly be followed by an arctic front accompanied by snow squalls and much colder air on gusty winds. Lake effect/upslope snow will be ongoing into Monday morning until a surface ridge builds into the region by afternoon. Storminess returns by midweek with an overrunning event on Tuesday and perhaps a coastal storm on Wednesday. Low wraps up over the Maritimes on Thursday with nose of a transient surface high centered south of the Mason-Dixon line ending precipitation briefly. Weak disturbance moves through on Friday with a modified arctic airmass in its wake on Saturday.

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Isentropic lift driven precipitation is developing this morning out ahead of a warm front over the state of Pennsylvania. This area of precipitation will expand and move northeastward into New York, New Jersey and western New England as the day progresses. Across the interior this precipitation should fall mainly in the form of snow with a snow to rain or mixed scenario along the coastal plain. A developing 30-40kt low level jet will attemp to warm the boundary layer making for this changeover and is also helping to transport moisture into the region with precipitable water values running between a third and half an inch, slightly above climatological normal values for early February. Vorticity advection at the head of the trough will produce UVM over the region, which will intersect a fairly moist snow growth region from central Pennsylvania extending northeastwards into the Catskills and eventually New England by later this afternoon into tonight. In this region, 2 to 5 inches of snowfall from southwest to northeast can be expected, with locally higher amounts once one reaches the higher terrain of the Catskills. Precipitation may begin as snow over the coastal plain, but the warming of the boundary layer will likely change snow over to rain by noon. Across northern and western New York and northwestern Pennsylvania precipitation will be more showery in nature with snow amounts generally remaining under 2 inches. Northern New England will see mostly cloudy skies with precipitation holding off until tonight. Temperatures will range from the 20's over the far interior with mainly 30's elsewhere. Highs may reach the low 40's along the immediate coast of southern New Jersey. Winds will increase out of the southeast at 5-10mph, shifting to the west over western sections at 10-15mph after the passage of the pre-frontal trough.


System continues to move through the Northeast tonight with a secondary area of low pressure developing over southern New England along the trough axis. This will aid in developing a weak deformation zone over interior New England, enhancing snow amounts from north-central Massachusetts to central Maine. Weak frontogenic banding will also be present and could help to produce snowfall rates of over an inch an hour in localized areas. Snowfall will end by the evening hours over New York and northeast Pennsylvania and a dry slot works into the region. There will still be decent moisture below 850mb so some spotty freezing drizzle will be possible. Towards daybreak the arctic front will begin to enter western New York and Pennsylvania and should be accompanied by a line of snow squalls. More on this in the Sunday forecast. Temperatures tonight will range from the teens and 20's over the interior to readings near freezing along the coast. Winds will be out of the southeast at 10-15mph over central and northern New England. Westerly winds around 10mph will exist over the rest of the region except for southern New England where winds will be light and variable.


Arctic front blasts through the Northeast during the day on Sunday producing a windex event over the region. Strong PVA, low level cape values rising to 30-80 J/km ahead of the front, steep low/mid level lapse rates will be present and high RH(>70%) can be found within the snow growth zone. The front will enter western New York and Pennsylvania around daybreak and move west to east through the region, reaching New England by early to mid afternoon and offshore by Sunday night. 1-3 inches of snow can be expected with this with the passage of this front with significant lake-effect snow developing behind it which could accumulate several more inches before dusk. While this arctic front progresses through the region, northern New England will also still be feeling the influence of the secondary low pressure. Light snow to moderate snow will be ongoing during the morning hours with precipitation tapering during the afternoon as dry slot works into the area. Snowfall here could range from 2-4 inches during the morning hours. Temperatures will begin the day in the 20's and 30's from north to south ahead of the front but will quickly fall into the teens and 20's behind it under strong cold air advection. Winds will increase behind the front out of the west from 20-30mph with gusts as high as 50mph, especially over the higher terrain. Ahead of the front winds will be southwesterly around 10mph.

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Snowfall through Monday

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As the arctic front and its associated snow squalls move offshore Sunday night the strong mid-level disturbance will reenergize the old clipper low over the Maritimes and a deformation axis of snowfall will redevelop over northern New England. This could lead to an additional 2-4" of snowfall from eastern New Hampshire into Maine. Out towards the lakes the lake-effect machine will be cranked up, producing moderate to heavy snow accumulations in the snow belts on a 280-290° flow. Inversions will start high and lapse rates will be steep, leading to very heavy snowfall rates during the evening hours. Lake Ontario is still around 3°C with 850mb temps dropping to -20°C to -22°C creating extreme instability. Lake Erie is mostly frozen, but enough open water does exist (heat flux still occurs through ice as well) to produce moderate snowfall amounts downwind of Lake Erie as well. Elsewhere over the region there will be scattered snow showers but those will be diminishing for the most part away from the lakes and skies will become partly cloudy. Winds will be brisk out of the west-northwest at 15-25mph with some higher gusts. Temperatures will range from near or slightly below zero over the higher terrain to single digits and teens over the interior and 20's along the coastal plain. Wind chills will average below zero over the interior with teens and single digits along the coastal plain.


Lake-effect/upslope snowfall continues into the daytime hours on Monday, accumulating a few additional inches. Otherwise expect partly to mostly cloudy skies with scattered flurries for the remainder of the Northeast with gusty west-northwesterly winds. Temperatures will struggle to climb from their morning lows with highs only reaching the upper 20's to near 30°F along the coastal plain. Over the interior highs will range from the single digits to near 20°F from north to south.

High pressure builds into the region Monday night. Inversion will lower and flow will go anti-cyclonic effectively ending the lake-effect snowfall. skies will clear and decent radiational cooling will ensue. Temperatures will drop well below zero over northern New England and the higher terrain. Elsewhere over the interior lows will bottom out in the single digits and low teens with upper teens to near 20°F expected along the coast. Winds will be light and variable except over northern New England where 5-10mph northwesterly winds will blow before midnight before calming.

---------

Attention shifts to the west midweek as a vigorous upper disturbance will drop out of the Rockys into the central Plains on Monday. This will spawn a surface low pressure that will ride a tight baroclinic zone set up from northern Missouri to central Pennsylvania Monday night and Tuesday. The Gulf of Mexico will be wide open and moisture will feed northward on a southwesterly flow out ahead of the area of low pressure into the Northeast. Snow will break out over western sections during the morning hours on Tuesday and quickly spread northeastward despite precipitation pushing into a confluent flow, eroding the leading edge some. Across southern Pennsylvania, central/southern New Jersey and up along the coastal plain temperatures both aloft and in the boundary layer may warm enough for precipitation to change over to a wintry mix or even plain rain. From north-central Pennsylvania to interior southeastern New York to interior southern New England precipitation should remain in the form of snow but could mix with sleet close to the transition zone. Temperatures will be near normal for mid-February.

Northern stream low pressure system will slow some Tuesday ngiht as a southern stream disturbance gets organized over the south and heights build over the western Atlantic. This scenario could back the transition zone inland a little ways as southerly flow increases east of the trough axis that will still be over the central Great Lakes states. Light to moderate precipitation will continue over central/northern New York and New England with showery precipitation to the south in the warm sector. Temperatures will average above normal with clouds around the area and modified polar airmass over the region.


Confidence is increasing for a potential coastal strom on Wednesday as the southern stream system attempts to round the corner in the Southeast. The GFS takes the track of this low just inland of the coast, bringing rain to the coast and a wintry mix just inland with snow confined from northwestern Pennsylvania to the north country. On the other hand, the ECMWF model takes this system outside of the 40/70 benchmark. This solution would bring the transition line down to the coast with lighter amounts of snow inland. As with the last several systems in the mid-range, the Canadian global model (GGEM) has offered a compromise solution between the GFS and Euro models and will be the chosen path for this forecast. This solution brings the coastal storm over or just inside the 40/70 benchmark (which is also the climatologically favored track this time of year). Given this circumstance, rain would fall along the immediate coast with a mix just inland along the coastal plain. Inland areas stand to see a substantial snowfall with amounts tapering up towards the lakes, west of the Allegheny Plateau and up towards the St.Lawrence Valley.

Low pressure pulls into the Canadian Marimtes Wednesday night with some minor lake effect snows in its wake. High pressure quickly builds in behind the storm bringing a modified arctic airmass over the region, so temperatures will be close to average, maybe slightly below in areas where ideal radiational cooling conditions are met.

-----

Significant differences in the models begin to arise by Thursday. The GFS turns Wednesday's coastal storm into a sub 950mb storm center near the Davis Strait with a flat trough extending from the western Great Lakes to the Canadian Maritimes. At the base of this trough the GFS takes low pressure on a path from northern Missouri to western Pennsylvania along a tight baroclinic zone eventually spreading more snow/mix into the Northeast, similar to Tuesday. The EURO, following the GGEM's lead, takes low pressure into the Great Lakes as a strong western Atlantic ridge will build and greater heights will exist along the eastern seaboard. At this time I don't see any reason to choose one scenario over the other as the GFS has shown more consistancy than the Euro model as of late(although the well-performing GGEM model shows a EURO-like solution). In another nod to the GGEM and ECMWF solutions, it has been the preferred track for low pressure system thus far this winter. However, the PNA has been showing signs of becoming positive or neutral-positive, which would favor the flat trough solution over the eastern US put forth by the GFS.

For the time being I will side with the GFS with a slight hedging towards the GGEM/Euro solution. This bring system into the Northeast before noon on Thursday with rain south/along the coast with a snow or mix inland. System continues to affect the area Thursday night and exits on Friday with Canadian high pressure building down over the Great Lakes and sliding eastwards.

With the active pattern continuing over the contiguous United States the next system of interest should approach from the southwest by the middle of the weekend.

___________________________________________________________

Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar

___________________________________________________________


Current Northeast Snowcover

Northeast Snowcover


MODIS Rapid Response satellite photo of Northeast snow cover (12/06/2007)


___________________________________________________________

Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.

---------------------------

Great Lakes SST's 1/25/2008

Great Lakes SST's as of 01/25/2008.

-------

Fillipini's Pond conditions (Lake across street)

11/6: 42°F
11/9: 37°F
11/11: 33°F - 1st morning with grease ice on lake.
11/17: 33°F
11/22: 34°F
11/24: 32°F - patchy ice on lake this morning
11/25: 32°F - lake iced over completely, melting along the shores during the afternoon.
12/1: Patchy ice has been on the lake all week. Lake should freeeze over completely tonight.
12/3: Lake is frozen over and covered with snow. Thickness measurements starting soon.

___________________________________________________________


February Daily Weather Statistics

February 1st - 33°F/22°F....1.13"....0%...0.9"...(1")
February 2nd - 35°F/29°F....Trace....0%...Trace..(2")
February 3rd - 38°F/23°F....0.00"....60%..0.0"...(2")
February 4th - 31°F/24°F....0.04"....0%...0.2"...(2")
February 5th - 43°F/31°F....0.52"....5%...0.0"...(2")
February 6th - 48°F/32°F....1.08"....0%...0.0"...(1")
February 7th - 41°F/24°F....0.36"....30%..0.1"...(1")
February 8th - 34°F/20°F....Trace....30%..Trace..(1")
February 9th - 33°F/25°F....0.22"....0%...2.5"...(3")



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Updated: 2:29 PM GMT on February 10, 2008

Permalink

Winter returns to the Northeast.

By: sullivanweather, 11:45 AM GMT on February 07, 2008

Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings

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Commentary

Snow/ice forecast was a bust over central New York and could have been a little less than indicated over Vermont. Any snow reports from the North Country would be appreciated!

On a side note, I think I'm going to take a in depth snow survey later today. I'm going to go into the deep woods and get some measurement and liquid equivalent samples.

-----

I've been having some serious internet connection problems that's not letting me access certain pages. So I'm going to post the forecast from Friday-Sunday from my previous blog, which looks good so far.

Pictures from the walk yesterday will be posted in my g/f's blog, which she will be starting soon.

___________________________________________________________


Regional Forecast



The upper remnants of the very March-like winter storm that has plagued the nation the past few days will rotate over the Northeast today. This will start a trend towards troughiness in the east that will bring a return to winter weather over the next week and perhaps beyond. A clipper system quickly followed by an arctic front will bring snow to much of the region over the weekend. A brief break on Monday with cold surface high overhead then another hallmark La Nina pattern develops during the midweek as several disturbances track along a stationary frontal boundary set up from the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Ohio Valley. The potential exists for a prolonged winter weather event in the Northeast, especially across the northern half of the region. Enough warm air may sneak into southern portions to eventually change precipitation over to rain but all in all a very wintry weather pattern is becoming likely as we head into this weekend into next week.

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Upper trough axis swings through the Northeast today, in conjunction with an inverted surface trough, bringing snow showers to the interior and rain showers along the coastal plain. Snowfall will be light with accumulations ranging from 1-4" with the highest amounts likely over the highest elevations of northern New York, Vermont and New Hampshire. Valley locations should see little, if any, accumulation due to wet ground and temperatures slightly above freezing. Otherwise expect mostly cloudy skies for much of the day with gradually improving conditions from the west during the afternoon. Temperatures will climb into the 40's along the coastal plain with 20's and 30's inland from north to south. North of the surface trough winds will be light out of the north and northeast. To the south of this trough winds will be out of the west-northwest at 5-10mph.

Many rivers around the region are running very high and will continue to do so over the next 24 hours. Action stage and minor flood stage levels have been reached over central and western New York and Pennsylvania with many other smaller stream and creeks running at bankfull. There's also many areas of overwash over area roadways. This runoff should continue over the next 48 hours until this weekends' cold blast which could create more problems as refreezing takes place.

--------


Some clouds and flurries will hang on over New England and northern New York State Thursday night. Further south and west expect a break up of the low cloud cover, but mid and upper level cloudiness will move by as a moisture starved upper trough moves overhead. Temperatures will fall back to near freezing along the coastal sections with teens and 20's inland from north to south. Any wet roads due to continued runoff will likely develop patches of black ice, especially with most salt being washed off area roadways by recent rainfall.

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Big changes are in store starting Friday extending into the weekend and early next week. The northern jet stream will buckle and dislodge a very cold arctic airmass currently building over the Yukon and Alaska and send it southeastward across the Canadian praries and eventually into the Northeast.

Weak upper disturbance will still be over the region on Friday and will help to set off some snow showers over the higher terrain of northern New York and New England. Elsewhere over the region it will be partly cloudy with temperatures near normal.

A rather potent mid level disturbance will move into the Midwest Friday night as a strong arctic front attatched to a clipper low over the northern Great Lakes dips southward out of Canada into the Northern Plains. This feature is associated with another strong 500mb vortmax of it's own. Deep trough that's carving itself out over the eastern US will begin to tilt negative as its axis reaches the Great Lakes. Clouds increase Friday night with snow reaching western sections after midnight as warm air advection ensues. Further east skies will be partly cloudy with no precipitation expected.

Complicated situation setting up by Saturday as strong upper disturbance reaches the coast. Clipper-like surface low pressure over the eastern Great Lakes will transfer its energy to a developing low along the Jersey coast. Atlantic moisture will begin to become entrained into this complex area of low pressure and an increasing area of light to moderate steady snowfall will develop over New York and push northeastwards into New England. Boundary layer temperatures along the coast may be warm enough for rain to fall initially but even these locations will see a change to snow during the afternoon as heights crash and dynamic cooling aloft takes place.

Arctic front comes screaming through the region Saturday night while low pressure bombs over the Gulf of Maine. A band of heavy snow may develop on the backside of this low pressure over maine as it wraps up and heads into the Canadian Maritimes Sunday morning. As the arctic front crosses the region a narrow line of snow squalls may accompany its passage. Strong winds will also develop over the region as the pressure gradient tightens between the bombing low pressure over the Maritimes and a 1040mb high over the Midwest. Strong cold air advection will also ensue behind the frontal passage with 850mb temps tumbling to -20°C to -25°C with 500mb thicknesses dropping to 500dm. a major lake-effect snow set-up will be in place with good synoptic moisture present, cyclonic flow and very cold temperatures aloft. Only mitigating factor will be shear, but given the amount of moisture and cold air present the shear will merely act to spread the accumulating snows out some. Temperatures will drop well below normal levels following the frontal passage.

Much of the same continues on Sunday with cold northwesterly flow over the region and lake-effect snows continuing. Steadier snows may also continue over Maine as wrap around moisture from the strong low pressure over the Maritimes will clip the state. Temperatures will rise very little from their morning readings with cold air advection ongoing.

------

Extended forecast to follow soon...

___________________________________________________________


Useful links

Models

National Centers for Environmental Prediction (American models)

Canadian global model (GGEM)

Canadian regional model (RGEM)

European ECMWF model

Pennsylvania State University 'E-wall'

Canadianweather.org model page

Florida State University model page

Cyclone phase evolution

SUNY Stony Brook MM5 model

Northeast HiRes WRF model

Model biases


Climate info

Climate Prediction Center
NOAA's operational climate program. Links to many climate indicators including ENSO, MJO, teleconnections, outlooks, temperature and precipitation monitoring, stratospheric information, etc.

National Climatic Data Center

Weathercharts.org
Wealth of weather charts and maps

Cryosphere Today (Snow and ice cover updated daily)

United States extremes for specific locations


Climate change links and info

Met office Hadley Centre

NASA GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies)

Real Climate (climate blog)

Climate Policy (AMS project)

--------

Here's a preliminary list of some useful links that I will add to now and then when time allows.



___________________________________________________________

Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar

___________________________________________________________


Current Northeast Snowcover

Northeast Snowcover


MODIS Rapid Response satellite photo of Northeast snow cover (12/06/2007)


___________________________________________________________

Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.

---------------------------

Great Lakes SST's 1/25/2008

Great Lakes SST's as of 01/25/2008.

-------

Fillipini's Pond conditions (Lake across street)

11/6: 42°F
11/9: 37°F
11/11: 33°F - 1st morning with grease ice on lake.
11/17: 33°F
11/22: 34°F
11/24: 32°F - patchy ice on lake this morning
11/25: 32°F - lake iced over completely, melting along the shores during the afternoon.
12/1: Patchy ice has been on the lake all week. Lake should freeeze over completely tonight.
12/3: Lake is frozen over and covered with snow. Thickness measurements starting soon.

___________________________________________________________


February Daily Weather Statistics

February 1st - 33°F/22°F....1.13"....0%...0.9"...(1")
February 2nd - 35°F/29°F....Trace....0%...Trace..(2")
February 3rd - 38°F/23°F....0.00"....60%..0.0"...(2")
February 4th - 31°F/24°F....0.04"....0%...0.2"...(2")
February 5th - 43°F/31°F....0.52"....5%...0.0"...(2")
February 6th - 48°F/32°F....1.08"....0%...0.0"...(1")



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Updated: 3:06 PM GMT on February 08, 2008

Permalink

Active pattern upcoming with an arctic blast to follow

By: sullivanweather, 10:17 AM GMT on February 05, 2008

Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings

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___________________________________________________________


Regional Forecast



Several waves of low pressure will move up along a frontal boundary that will oscillate through the region over the next couple of days. South of the boundary precipitation type will be rain while to the north frozen/freezing precipitation will be likely. This front finally drops south, through the Northeast as a cold fron Wednesday and Wednesday night. Some lingering clouds and light precipitation along the coast early on Thursday before ridge exis moves into the region, clearing things out. A weak disturbance moves into the region on Friday, followed by a much stronger northern stream disturbance on Saturday. This secondary disturbance will be accompanied by an arctic blast and could very well spawn a coastal storm this weekend. Much colder air on gusty northwest winds and a major lake-effect snow event as low pressure bombs over the Canadian Maritimes and a deep trough carves itself out over the Northeast. Arctic high pressure builds into the region early next week as another southern stream disturbance moves out of the Rocky's. This system will have to be watched for the Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe next week as a possible winter storm.

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A wave of low pressure will move across the St.Lawrence Valley and into northern Maine today along a frontal boundary currently pushing northwards as a warm front. Isentropic lift driven precipitation is falling out ahead of this low pressure over northern New York and central/northern New England. Over northern Maine, where precipitation will be predominately snow, 3 to 6 inches can be expected. Further south the surge of warmer air will change the initial snowfall over to a mixture of sleet and freezing rain with a light glazing of ice accretion likely. Precipitation type could eventually changeover completely to rain over Vermont, southern New Hampshire and southern Maine by the afternoon hours. By evening the low pressure will move offshore with a cold front dropping back southwards. Temperatures here will rise into the mid to upper 30's over central New England and northern New York. Northern New Hampshire and northern Maine temperatures should remain below freezing.

Further south and west over Pennsylvania, New Jersey, central/southern New York and southern New England, a secondary area of precipitation in association with the cold front will spread into the area from the west and slowly work its way southeastward as the day progresses. Low/mid level frontogenic forcing along this boundary acting on a very moist atmosphere (precipitable water values 1"-1.25") aligned with good upper support in the form of a 100kt+ jet streak will produce some locally heavy rainfall. Some elevated instability could lead to some isolated rumbles of thunder with mid-level laspe rates running 6-7°C/km. Rainfall amounts ranging from a half inch to an inch and a quarter, with the highest amounts over western sections and lessor amounts east, will result in some localized flooding problems, especially in areas that receive any convection. Snowpack has below normal SWE values with only a half inch to two inches in areas that will receive heavy rainfall. That could be enough when rainfall and snowmelt combined to send some of the flashier creeks and streams out of their banks. Main stem rivers should remain withing their banks with rises to 3/4 bankfull likely. Should heavier rainfall amounts occur over a more widespread area some rivers could go to minor flood, but downstream convection should steal some moisture feeding into this frontal boundary. Areas of southern New Jersey may remain precipitation-free until evening. Temperatures will show a sharp gradient from north to south with upper 30's and low 40's over north-central/east-central New York, mid to upper 40's over south-central New York eastwards to southern New England. Further south temperatures rise into the low to mid 50's from central Pennsylvania to the New York City metro area with highs approaching 60°F over southern New Jersey. Very foggy conditions area-wide can also be expected this morning with gradually improving conditons once the fron pushes through the region and atmosphere mixes some.


The front will slow its southward progress during the evening and return northwards as a warm front as another wave of low pressure develops over the Midwest and moves into the Ohio Valley by daybreak. Precipitation will increase from the west once again after midnight as strong 50-60kt low level jet will transport moisture from the Gulf of Mexico into the region. Areas further east will be in between system with mostly cloudy skies and fog redeveloping during the overnight. Temperatures will range from the mid 40's to low 50's over the southern half of Pennsylvania eastwards to the coast. Northern Pennsylvania, much of New York and southern/central New England will see lows ranging from to mid 30's to the mis 40's. Below freezing temperatures will be limited to northern New York and northern New England.


--------

The next surface low pressure, favorably placed in the left entrance region of a 120kt upper level jet, moves across the region during the day on Wednesday reaching the southern New England coast by evening. At the same time an anti-cyclone north of the Great Lakes will be trying to builds southwards. Atmosphere will be rich with moisture as precipitable water values will remain an inch and over acorss the south and up to a half inch over northern New York and New England. At the surface a secondary cold front will drop southwards out of Canada, sharpening the baroclinic zone extending east-west over the region. This will add aid in lift over the region leading to very heavy rainfall over Pennsylvania, New York and southern New England. Up to an inch or more of rainfall can be expected on top of what's received today. This baroclinic zone will gradually drop southwards as colder air bleeds into the Northeast with precipitation spreading into the region a very interesting day will ensue. Models still haven't agreed on a solution, although the trends in the models over the previous 24 hours has been for a colder scenario with greater chances for wintry precipitation. A dangerous transition from rain, to freezing rain and sleet then finally snow will occur from north to south. First over northern New York, Vermont and New Hampshire during the morning hours. By afternoon the transition zone will move into central New England and central New York State. South of the NY/PA border and southern New England precipitation should remain as rain until the evening and overnight hours. Given the amount of moisture present, significant amounts of snow and/or ice may accumulate north of the NYS thruway and the Mass Pike (I-90). Snowfall amounts could exceed 6 inches, especially over the Adirondacks and Green and White Mountains. This is a very tricky developing situation as models historically perform poorly given the expected set-up. Temperatures will slowly fall throughout the day north of the boundary to below freezing. South of the boundary it will be very mild with some record highs possible. Temperatures will reach into the upper 40's inland to upper 50's and low 60's along the coastal plain.

Surface frontal boundary completes its southeastward progression through the region Wednesday night. Bagginess develops along the frontal boundary as no dominate low manages to ever form. This bagginess combined with the 500mb trough axis still over the eastern Great Lakes will help to keep light precipitation over the region during the overnight. Some resemblance of an inverted trough appears to develop on models as well which could act to enhance precipitation amounts. Inland locations should see primarily snowfall as temperatures both aloft and at the surface will have sufficiently cooled below freezing by the evening. Along the coastal plain it gets a little more dicy as the transition zone will be working its way southward through the overnight. It will also be harder to cool the boundary layer given the near record max temperatures from the daytime and the lack of a true arctic source for the cold air pushing into the region. Areas along the immediate coast of southern New England, the New York City metro area and along the coastal plain in New Jersey may not see anything more than plain rain with areas just inland likely seeing a changover to snow showers before precipitation ends. Areas further inland the situation in much more clear cut with a steady light snow or snow showers expected. A light accumulation of an inch or two can be expected with perhaps some higher amounts over the Catskills and Berkshires. The far northern and western areas may escape the bulk of the precipitation during the overnight. Temperatures will continue to average above normal, by some 10 degrees.


Snow/ice map


---------


Remnants of the inverted trough hang over the coastal sections during the morning hours on Thursday, bringing mostly cloudy skies and perhaps a few snow showers. By the afternoon hours a weak ridge axis will set up over the region which will clear the skies and dry things out a bit. Airmass over the region isn't especially chilly and temperatures will be seasonable, but still a few degrees above normal. 20's and 30's will be common across the north and inland sections with low 40's along the coastal plain.

Clouds increase once again Thursday night as a weak upper level disturbance pulls into the Northeast. There's not much moisture left for this system to work with, either. None-the-less, a few scattered snow showers could break out after midnight, mainly up north. Temperatures will continue to run a few degrees above normal.

--------

Big changes are in store starting Friday extending into the weekend and early next week. The northern jet stream will buckle and dislodge a very cold arctic airmass currently building over the Yukon and Alaska and send it southeastward across the Canadian praries and eventually into the Northeast.

Weak upper disturbance will still be over the region on Friday and will help to set off some snow showers over the higher terrain of northern New York and New England. Elsewhere over the region it will be partly cloudy with temperatures near normal.

A rather potent mid level disturbance will move into the Midwest Friday night as a strong arctic front attatched to a clipper low over the northern Great Lakes dips southward out of Canada into the Northern Plains. This feature is associated with another strong 500mb vortmax of it's own. Deep trough that's carving itself out over the eastern US will begin to tilt negative as its axis reaches the Great Lakes. Clouds increase Friday night with snow reaching western sections after midnight as warm air advection ensues. Further east skies will be partly cloudy with no precipitation expected.

Complicated situation setting up by Saturday as strong upper disturbance reaches the coast. Clipper-like surface low pressure over the eastern Great Lakes will transfer its energy to a developing low along the Jersey coast. Atlantic moisture will begin to become entrained into this complex area of low pressure and an increasing area of light to moderate steady snowfall will develop over New York and push northeastwards into New England. Boundary layer temperatures along the coast may be warm enough for rain to fall initially but even these locations will see a change to snow during the afternoon as heights crash and dynamic cooling aloft takes place.

Arctic front comes screaming through the region Saturday night while low pressure bombs over the Gulf of Maine. A band of heavy snow may develop on the backside of this low pressure over maine as it wraps up and heads into the Canadian Maritimes Sunday morning. As the arctic front crosses the region a narrow line of snow squalls may accompany its passage. Strong winds will also develop over the region as the pressure gradient tightens between the bombing low pressure over the Maritimes and a 1040mb high over the Midwest. Strong cold air advection will also ensue behind the frontal passage with 850mb temps tumbling to -20°C to -25°C with 500mb thicknesses dropping to 500dm. a major lake-effect snow set-up will be in place with good synoptic moisture present, cyclonic flow and very cold temperatures aloft. Only mitigating factor will be shear, but given the amount of moisture and cold air present the shear will merely act to spread the accumulating snows out some. Temperatures will drop well below normal levels following the frontal passage.

Much of the same continues on Sunday with cold northwesterly flow over the region and lake-effect snows continuing. Steadier snows may also continue over Maine as wrap around moisture from the strong low pressure over the Maritimes will clip the state. Temperatures will rise very little from their morning readings with cold air advection ongoing.



___________________________________________________________


Useful links

Models

National Centers for Environmental Prediction (American models)

Canadian global model (GGEM)

Canadian regional model (RGEM)

European ECMWF model

Pennsylvania State University 'E-wall'

Canadianweather.org model page

Florida State University model page

Cyclone phase evolution

SUNY Stony Brook MM5 model

Northeast HiRes WRF model

Model biases


Climate info

Climate Prediction Center
NOAA's operational climate program. Links to many climate indicators including ENSO, MJO, teleconnections, outlooks, temperature and precipitation monitoring, stratospheric information, etc.

National Climatic Data Center

Weathercharts.org
Wealth of weather charts and maps

Cryosphere Today (Snow and ice cover updated daily)

United States extremes for specific locations


Climate change links and info

Met office Hadley Centre

NASA GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies)

Real Climate (climate blog)

Climate Policy (AMS project)

--------

Here's a preliminary list of some useful links that I will add to now and then when time allows.



___________________________________________________________

Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar

___________________________________________________________


Current Northeast Snowcover

Northeast Snowcover


MODIS Rapid Response satellite photo of Northeast snow cover (12/06/2007)


___________________________________________________________

Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.

---------------------------

Great Lakes SST's 1/25/2008

Great Lakes SST's as of 01/25/2008.

-------

Fillipini's Pond conditions (Lake across street)

11/6: 42°F
11/9: 37°F
11/11: 33°F - 1st morning with grease ice on lake.
11/17: 33°F
11/22: 34°F
11/24: 32°F - patchy ice on lake this morning
11/25: 32°F - lake iced over completely, melting along the shores during the afternoon.
12/1: Patchy ice has been on the lake all week. Lake should freeeze over completely tonight.
12/3: Lake is frozen over and covered with snow. Thickness measurements starting soon.

___________________________________________________________


January Daily Weather Statistics

Date___________Hi/Lo____Precip___Sun___Snow____(Snowdepth)

January 1st - 36°F/18°F....0.26"....20%..3.4"...(10")
January 2nd - 28°F/5°F.....0.01"....75%..0.1"...(13")
January 3rd - 10°F/-5°F....Trace...100%..Trace..(13")
January 4th - 25°F/-3°F....0.00"....30%..0.0"...(13")
January 5th - 36°F/9°F.....0.08"....20%..0.1"...(12")
January 6th - 43°F/29°F....0.02"....0%...0.0"...(11")
January 7th - 56°F/36°F....0.00"....50%..0.0"...(9")
January 8th - 59°F/36°F....0.00"....35%..0.0"...(5")
January 9th - 54°F/35°F....0.34"....40%..0.0"...(2")
January 10th - 39°F/28°F....0.04"....80%..0.0"...(1")
January 11th - 43°F/32°F....0.31"....20%..0.0"...(1")
January 12th - 38°F/27°F....0.00"....20%..0.0"...(1")
January 13th - 36°F/23°F....0.23"....15%..2.7"...(1")
January 14th - 31°F/27°F....0.08"....0%...0.9"...(3")
January 15th - 28°F/19°F....0.04"....10%..0.4"...(3")
January 16th - 29°F/13°F....Trace....55%..Trace..(3")
January 17th - 26°F/9°F.....0.17"....0%...1.6"...(3")
January 18th - 37°F/23°F....0.06"....70%..0.2"...(4")
January 19th - 33°F/18°F....Trace....10%..Trace..(3")
January 20th - 21°F/8°F.....Trace....80%..Trace..(3")
January 21st - 18°F/2°F.....0.00"....95%..0.0"...(3")
January 22nd - 29°F/8°F.....0.03"....30%..0.4"...(3")
January 23rd - 30°F/16°F....Trace....80%..Trace..(3")
January 24th - 24°F/12°F....Trace....10%..Trace..(3")
January 25th - 25°F/9°F.....Trace....80%..Trace..(3")
January 26th - 28°F/15°F....Trace....15%..0.1"...(3")
January 27th - 33°F/19°F....Trace....50%..0.1"...(3")
January 28th - 34°F/20°F....0.00"....90%..0.0"...(2")
January 29th - 33°F/18°F....0.16"....0%...0.0"...(2")
January 30th - 37°F/22°F....0.11"....70%..0.0"...(1")
January 31st - 31°F/15°F....0.00"....80%..0.0"...(1")

-----

February Daily Weather Statistics

February 1st - 33°F/22°F....1.13"....0%...0.9"...(1")
February 2nd - 35°F/29°F....Trace....0%...Trace..(2")
February 3rd - 38°F/23°F....0.00"....60%..0.0"...(2")
February 4th - 31°F/24°F....0.04"....0%...0.2"...(2")



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Updated: 12:29 PM GMT on February 06, 2008

Permalink

Six more weeks of Winter??

By: sullivanweather, 6:55 PM GMT on February 02, 2008

Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings

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___________________________________________________________


Regional Forecast



A cloudy day this Saturday has left me to wonder how the groundhog saw it's shadow. I guess we'll be having 6 more weeks of winter minus the warm-up projected for the middle of this upcoming week.

A general weak surface high pressure will be around the area for much of the weekend. Low clouds over much of the region will gradually erode by Superbowl Sunday. There may be an increase in high cloudiness over northern sections on Sunday as a weak disturbance moves by to the north, over southern Canada. Overall, the weather will be rather benign this weekend. On Monday a weak disturbance outrunning it's upper support will approach from the west, bringing a light round of precipitation to the region. A warm frontal boundary lift through the region Tuesday with several disturbances riding up a positively tilted trough keeping precipitation across the region. Any frozen precip is likely to stay across the far north. Trough pull offshore, taking precipitation with it and frontal passage dropping temperatures back to seasonable levels. Transient high pressure moves across the Northeast Thursday with another trough bringing snow showers to the region on Friday.

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Current visible satellite loops show low clouds socked in over much of New York, Pennsylvania, central and northern New Jersey as well as the western half New England. Some erosion of the low clouds deck is noted south of the Mason-Dixon line, over southern New Jersey and over the eastern half of New England. Under these clouds there's little precipitation to speak of aside from a few light snow showers over the Adirondacks and Green and White mountains. Temperatures over the higher terrain will remain in the 20's today with mid 30's over the rest of the interior. Along the coastal plain temperatures have risen into the low to mid 40's. Winds are quite blustery over the state of Maine where a wind advisory is posted with sunshine providing a well mixed atmosphere. Elsewhere over the Northeast winds are out of the west around 10mph. On a side note, Mt.Washington has been reporting hurricane force winds for much of today with a gust to 117mph earlier this morning.


Decreasing cloudiness tonight as slightly drier air advects into the region. A stray flurry or two could skirt by along the lake shores and across the higher terrain. Elsewhere it will remain precipitation free. Temperatures will fall into the teens and 20's inland with upper 20's to low 30's along the coast. Winds will be mainly from the west around 5-10mph.

A very weak disturbance will slide by to the north of the region on Sunday. This will keep clouds and a few snow showers over northern New York and New England. Central New York and northern Pennsylvania eastwards to central New England will have mostly cloudy skies with a broken lower deck and a mid and upper deck due to disturbance passing to the north. Southern Pennsylvania and northeastwards along the coastal plain will have partly cloudy skies during the morning, transitioning to mostly sunny skies by afternoon. High's will climb to the upper 40's along southern sections and the coastal plain. Upper 30's to lower 40's inland with temperatures near freezing or below across the north.


High pressure builds in during the evening hours on Sunday and moves to central New England by morning. Clouds will decrease for the western half of the region before midnight, with gradually clearing skies after midnight over New England. Not ideal radiational cooling conditions be enough lack of cloud cover will allow temperatures to drop into the teens and low 20's inland with upper 20's to near 30°F over the coastal plain. Winds will be light and variable.

---------

Deep trough develops in the western states late this weekend and early next week. In response, a broad moist southwesterly flow will develop from Texas eastwards. A weak disturbance moving out ahead of the main trough will grab up some moisture and move into the Northeast during the day on Monday. Thermal profiles suggest snow will be the predominate precipitation type north of the northerntier of Pennsylvania when precipitation starts with a mix or rain to the south. In fact, a band of steady light to moderate snow may move along the New York/Pennsylvania border then east-southeastwards towards southern New England which could drop up to 3 inches before precipitation gradually transitions to freezing rain/drizzle. Ice accretions in central Pennsylvania could reach a tenth to a quarter inch before temperatures warm above freezing by late afternoon. Southern Pennsylvania eastwards to the coastal plain up to the New York City metro area temperatures in the boundary layer and aloft should be sufficiently warm enough for rain. Northern New York and central/northern New England should see partly to mostly cloudy skies. Temperatures will rise into the upper 30's to low 40's along southern Pennsylvania to the coastal plain up to New York City. Central/northern Pennsylvania and central New York will have temperatures remain below freezing until late afternoon/early evening. As the warm front passes temperatures will rise above freezing. Northern New Jersey, inland southeastern New York and southern New England will likely see temperatures rise into the mid 30's before the precipitation starts, then drop back to freezing or slightly below until the precipitation ends and the warm front moves through after midnight. To the north of the precipitation shield across northern New York and central/northern New England temperatures will range from the low 20's across the higher terrain to the upper 20's and low 30's over the valleys.

Warm front continues to lift into the Northeastern states Monday night. Low clouds, fog and drizzle will be prevailent to the south of this boundary with light frozen/freezing precipitation to its north. A light glaze of ice or up to an inch of snow could fall as the warm front works its way into Northern New York and New England during the overnight hours. Temperatures will remain steady or slowly rise during the overnight as mild southwesterly flow sweeps into the region.

-------


Low pressure over the Great Lakes will move into southern Canada on Tuesday, well west of the region. The warm front will extend over central New England during the morning hours and may very well clear northern Maine by late in the afternoon. A period of light to moderate snow, changing to sleet and freezing rain then finally rain will move across central/northern Maine, which could drop 3-5". To the south all precipitation will be in liquid form. Light rains will begin the day over northern New York and central New England with scattered low clouds, fog and drizzle elsewhere. Temperatures will run well above normal. 850mb temperatures reach +9°C to +12°C over the southern half of the region from north to south with the 0°C isotherm reaching into Canada by evening. Despite thick cloud cover it will get quite mild with temperatures in the upper 40's to mid 50's across the southern portions of the region and along the coastal plain. 40's will be common over much of the rest of the interior with 30's confined to northern New England.


Heights continue to builds Tuesday night as a low pressure gets organized over the Ohio Valley and pushes into the eastern Great Lakes then up to the St.Lawrence Valley by daybreak. Mild southerly flow ahead of this low pressure will keep the mild air entrenched over the Northeast. Overnight lows will be some 15-25 degrees above normal with many areas remaining in the 30's and 40's. A steady rain will move into the region from the west and could become heavy at times. Coastal areas should escape the precipitation but inland sections could receive a third to three-quarters of an inch of rainfall.

This low pressure and attending trough will be progressive. By noon a strong cold front will have swept through the western half of the region moving offshore by evening. Rain will fall in a 4-6 hour band out ahead of this cold front with precipitation quickly ending to blustery winds as the front passes by. Decent synoptic moisture and cyclonic flow behind the departing low pressure will provide some snow showers to inland sections. Lake enhancement is possible with marginally cold temperatures aloft. Winds will be another issue with pressure rises on the order of 12-17mb over a 6 hour timeframe and stong cold advection during the afternoon hours. Low pressure will be bombing over eastern Canada reaching ~970mb by evening increasing the isobaric gradient over the region as well. Would not be surprised to see 50mph gusts over northern New York to northern New England. Temperatures will fall from their morning highs in the 40's and 50's back into the upper 20's to low 40's by evening.

Scattered clouds and snow showers continue into Wednesday night with a gradual decrease in coverage away from the higher terrain and lakes where some upslope flow and lake enhancement will keep snow showers going until daybreak. High pressure will be building into the region after midnight so blustery conditions will be on the decrease, except over northern New England. Temperatures will fall back to their seasonal averages.

High pressure remains in control on Thursday bringing a fair day with light winds. Temperatures will continue to average near normal levels for early February.

--------

___________________________________________________________


Useful links

Models

National Centers for Environmental Prediction (American models)

Canadian global model (GGEM)

Canadian regional model (RGEM)

European ECMWF model

Pennsylvania State University 'E-wall'

Canadianweather.org model page

Florida State University model page

Cyclone phase evolution

SUNY Stony Brook MM5 model

Northeast HiRes WRF model

Model biases


Climate info

Climate Prediction Center
NOAA's operational climate program. Links to many climate indicators including ENSO, MJO, teleconnections, outlooks, temperature and precipitation monitoring, stratospheric information, etc.

National Climatic Data Center

Weathercharts.org
Wealth of weather charts and maps

Cryosphere Today (Snow and ice cover updated daily)

United States extremes for specific locations


Climate change links and info

Met office Hadley Centre

NASA GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies)

Real Climate (climate blog)

Climate Policy (AMS project)

--------

Here's a preliminary list of some useful links that I will add to now and then when time allows.



___________________________________________________________

Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar

___________________________________________________________


Current Northeast Snowcover

Northeast Snowcover


MODIS Rapid Response satellite photo of Northeast snow cover (12/06/2007)


___________________________________________________________

Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.

---------------------------

Great Lakes SST's 1/25/2008

Great Lakes SST's as of 01/25/2008.

-------

Fillipini's Pond conditions (Lake across street)

11/6: 42°F
11/9: 37°F
11/11: 33°F - 1st morning with grease ice on lake.
11/17: 33°F
11/22: 34°F
11/24: 32°F - patchy ice on lake this morning
11/25: 32°F - lake iced over completely, melting along the shores during the afternoon.
12/1: Patchy ice has been on the lake all week. Lake should freeeze over completely tonight.
12/3: Lake is frozen over and covered with snow. Thickness measurements starting soon.

___________________________________________________________


January Daily Weather Statistics

Date___________Hi/Lo____Precip___Sun___Snow____(Snowdepth)

January 1st - 36°F/18°F....0.26"....20%..3.4"...(10")
January 2nd - 28°F/5°F.....0.01"....75%..0.1"...(13")
January 3rd - 10°F/-5°F....Trace...100%..Trace..(13")
January 4th - 25°F/-3°F....0.00"....30%..0.0"...(13")
January 5th - 36°F/9°F.....0.08"....20%..0.1"...(12")
January 6th - 43°F/29°F....0.02"....0%...0.0"...(11")
January 7th - 56°F/36°F....0.00"....50%..0.0"...(9")
January 8th - 59°F/36°F....0.00"....35%..0.0"...(5")
January 9th - 54°F/35°F....0.34"....40%..0.0"...(2")
January 10th - 39°F/28°F....0.04"....80%..0.0"...(1")
January 11th - 43°F/32°F....0.31"....20%..0.0"...(1")
January 12th - 38°F/27°F....0.00"....20%..0.0"...(1")
January 13th - 36°F/23°F....0.23"....15%..2.7"...(1")
January 14th - 31°F/27°F....0.08"....0%...0.9"...(3")
January 15th - 28°F/19°F....0.04"....10%..0.4"...(3")
January 16th - 29°F/13°F....Trace....55%..Trace..(3")
January 17th - 26°F/9°F.....0.17"....0%...1.6"...(3")
January 18th - 37°F/23°F....0.06"....70%..0.2"...(4")
January 19th - 33°F/18°F....Trace....10%..Trace..(3")
January 20th - 21°F/8°F.....Trace....80%..Trace..(3")
January 21st - 18°F/2°F.....0.00"....95%..0.0"...(3")
January 22nd - 29°F/8°F.....0.03"....30%..0.4"...(3")
January 23rd - 30°F/16°F....Trace....80%..Trace..(3")
January 24th - 24°F/12°F....Trace....10%..Trace..(3")
January 25th - 25°F/9°F.....Trace....80%..Trace..(3")
January 26th - 28°F/15°F....Trace....15%..0.1"...(3")
January 27th - 33°F/19°F....Trace....50%..0.1"...(3")
January 28th - 34°F/20°F....0.00"....90%..0.0"...(2")
January 29th - 33°F/18°F....0.16"....0%...0.0"...(2")
January 30th - 37°F/22°F....0.11"....70%..0.0"...(1")
January 31st - 31°F/15°F....0.00"....80%..0.0"...(1")

-----

February Daily Weather Statistics

February 1st - 33°F/22°F....1.13"....0%...0.9"...(1")
February 2nd - 35°F/29°F....Trace....0%...Trace..(2")



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Updated: 8:33 PM GMT on February 03, 2008

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Winter storm to bring snow, ice, rain, flooding, high winds (need I say more?)

By: sullivanweather, 10:18 AM GMT on February 01, 2008

Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings

------


___________________________________________________________


Regional Forecast


A strong area of low pressure will wrap up over the Ohio Valley and move east-northeastwards through the Northeast Friday and offshore coastal New England Friday night. This low will bring a variety of precipitation types which could fall heavy at times. System lifts northeastwards towards Newfoundland on Saturday with high pressure of Pacific origin building into the region making for pleasent conditions and above normal temperatures. Surface ridge axis remains over the region on Sunday as a weak upper disturbance swings through. A few flurries can fall over the North Country with some weak cold air advection filtering into the Northeast, bringing temperatures a few degrees lower than Saturday's reaadings. Clouds increase on Monday as another trough approaches from the Great Lakes, arriving by evening. Another variety of precipitation types appears likely with this system as marginally cold air will be in place over the region. Milder air overtakes the region Tuesday with any frozen precipitation confined to the far north. Broad southwesterly jet stream will be in place over the region with several ripples of low pressure moving northeastwards along it. This should keep the Northeast in the clouds and precipitation until the trough axis pulls offshore by Wednesday night. High pressure builds in Thursday with the possibility of a colder low pressure moving into the region by Friday and the beginning of next weekend.

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**Major winter storm expected Friday and Friday night**

Lots to discuss today as a complex area of low pressure, located over north-central Kentucky, will move to the south shores of Lake Erie by midday and across the New York Pennsylvania border by afternoon. Deep moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and eventually the Atlantic out ahead of this low will be transported northward on a strong 60-70kt low level jet into the Northeast. Isentropic lift generated precipitation moving into the Northeast will initially fall into a cold dry airmass. The nose of a 1040mb+ high pressure over the Canadian Maritimes will help to set up a cold air damming situation. This will result in mostly frozen/freezing precipitation across the interior with liquid rain along the coasts and southwestern Pennsylvania throughout much of the morning hours. Snow will be confined from the Mohawk Valley northeastwards with thermal profiles below freezing across these areas, at least initially. By afternoon even these northern areas will see enough warm air intrusion at mid levels to force a changeover to sleet and/or freezing rain. To the south a warm layer above the surface will already be in place as precipitation begins. Evaporational cooling at the onset of precipitation could allow for a brief burst of snow but eventually a mixture of sleet and freezing rain will fall for much of the morning, changing to rain by afternoon, not before a potentially significant accumulations of ice. Areas to be worst affected by ice will be north-central Pennsylvania to south-central New York and northeastwards into central New England and finally the northern two-thirds of Maine where up to a half inch of ice accretion is possible. This amount of ice can cause tree damage resulting in downed power lines. From east-central Pennsylvania to northern New Jersey, southeastern New York and interior southern New England precipitation will start off as a mixture of sleet and freezing rain as well, but a quicker changeover to plain rain should prevent serious icing concerns. Extreme southeastern Pennsylvania, central and southern New Jersey, the New York City metro area including Long Island and immediate coastal areas of southern New England should remain all rain throughout the event.

Aside from precipitation type issues heavy amounts of QPF may result in flooding. Main stem rivers should remain within their banks, but may approach action stage Friday night. The main concern will be on fast responding creeks and streams as rain falling on mostly frozen ground combined with some snow melt could cause these flashy waterways to come out of their banks. Some flash flooding and street/urban flooding may also occur during the evening hours as an intense band of rainfall will move through the southern half of the area in association with the cold front. Rainfall rates may range from a half inch to an inch an hour within this band as a tounge of 1"+ precipitable water pools just ahead of the frontal boundary. Precipitation amounts should range from a half inch to an inch over western Pennsylvania and New York increasing to an inch to an inch and a half all points east.

A map will be posted for snowfall...


Another concern will be the potential for high winds as unstable warm layer may scour out the inversion over southeastern Pennsylvania, the southern two-thirds of New Jersey and extreme southeastern New York allowing some stronger winds aloft to mix down to the surface. Strong negative tilt trough punching into the warm sector combined with intense lift in the lower levels along the front (850mb omega -40 microbars!!) could lead to a line of low topped convection. Severe wind gusts could topple trees in areas of unfrozen ground in convective line as the 60-70kt low level jet could be mixed down to the surface.

Temperatures will warm into the 50's in the warm sector, perhaps reaching 60°F in southern New Jersey. Just to the north and west from east-central Pennsylvania to interior southern New England temperatures will remain below freezing until around noon where they will rapidly rise into the 40's. Central Pennsylvania, northeastwards to central New England temperatures will remain below freezing into the early afternoon climbing into the upper 30's to near 40°F by late afternoon. North-central New York into northern New England temperatures will remain below freezing throughout the day. After the frontal passage temperatures will drop 5-10 degrees within two hours of its passage before slowly dropping thereafter. Some flash freeze issues could arise inland.

Precipitation will end from southwest to northeast Friday evening into the overnight with very little in the way of wrap around as 700mb low tracks into southern Canada via southeast Michigan.


Snow/ice accumulations

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Rest of detailed forecast following soon...

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Useful links

Models

National Centers for Environmental Prediction (American models)

Canadian global model (GGEM)

Canadian regional model (RGEM)

European ECMWF model

Pennsylvania State University 'E-wall'

Canadianweather.org model page

Florida State University model page

Cyclone phase evolution

SUNY Stony Brook MM5 model

Northeast HiRes WRF model

Model biases


Climate info

Climate Prediction Center
NOAA's operational climate program. Links to many climate indicators including ENSO, MJO, teleconnections, outlooks, temperature and precipitation monitoring, stratospheric information, etc.

National Climatic Data Center

Weathercharts.org
Wealth of weather charts and maps

Cryosphere Today (Snow and ice cover updated daily)

United States extremes for specific locations


Climate change links and info

Met office Hadley Centre

NASA GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies)

Real Climate (climate blog)

Climate Policy (AMS project)

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Here's a preliminary list of some useful links that I will add to now and then when time allows.



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Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar

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Current Northeast Snowcover

Northeast Snowcover


MODIS Rapid Response satellite photo of Northeast snow cover (12/06/2007)


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Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.

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Great Lakes SST's 1/25/2008

Great Lakes SST's as of 01/25/2008.

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Fillipini's Pond conditions (Lake across street)

11/6: 42°F
11/9: 37°F
11/11: 33°F - 1st morning with grease ice on lake.
11/17: 33°F
11/22: 34°F
11/24: 32°F - patchy ice on lake this morning
11/25: 32°F - lake iced over completely, melting along the shores during the afternoon.
12/1: Patchy ice has been on the lake all week. Lake should freeeze over completely tonight.
12/3: Lake is frozen over and covered with snow. Thickness measurements starting soon.

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January Daily Weather Statistics

Date___________Hi/Lo____Precip___Sun___Snow____(Snowdepth)

January 1st - 36°F/18°F....0.26"....20%..3.4"...(10")
January 2nd - 28°F/5°F.....0.01"....75%..0.1"...(13")
January 3rd - 10°F/-5°F....Trace...100%..Trace..(13")
January 4th - 25°F/-3°F....0.00"....30%..0.0"...(13")
January 5th - 36°F/9°F.....0.08"....20%..0.1"...(12")
January 6th - 43°F/29°F....0.02"....0%...0.0"...(11")
January 7th - 56°F/36°F....0.00"....50%..0.0"...(9")
January 8th - 59°F/36°F....0.00"....35%..0.0"...(5")
January 9th - 54°F/35°F....0.34"....40%..0.0"...(2")
January 10th - 39°F/28°F....0.04"....80%..0.0"...(1")
January 11th - 43°F/32°F....0.31"....20%..0.0"...(1")
January 12th - 38°F/27°F....0.00"....20%..0.0"...(1")
January 13th - 36°F/23°F....0.23"....15%..2.7"...(1")
January 14th - 31°F/27°F....0.08"....0%...0.9"...(3")
January 15th - 28°F/19°F....0.04"....10%..0.4"...(3")
January 16th - 29°F/13°F....Trace....55%..Trace..(3")
January 17th - 26°F/9°F.....0.17"....0%...1.6"...(3")
January 18th - 37°F/23°F....0.06"....70%..0.2"...(4")
January 19th - 33°F/18°F....Trace....10%..Trace..(3")
January 20th - 21°F/8°F.....Trace....80%..Trace..(3")
January 21st - 18°F/2°F.....0.00"....95%..0.0"...(3")
January 22nd - 29°F/8°F.....0.03"....30%..0.4"...(3")
January 23rd - 30°F/16°F....Trace....80%..Trace..(3")
January 24th - 24°F/12°F....Trace....10%..Trace..(3")
January 25th - 25°F/9°F.....Trace....80%..Trace..(3")
January 26th - 28°F/15°F....Trace....15%..0.1"...(3")
January 27th - 33°F/19°F....Trace....50%..0.1"...(3")
January 28th - 34°F/20°F....0.00"....90%..0.0"...(2")
January 29th - 33°F/18°F....0.16"....0%...0.0"...(2")
January 30th - 37°F/22°F....0.11"....70%..0.0"...(1")
January 31st - 31°F/15°F....0.00"....80%..0.0"...(1")



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Updated: 12:28 PM GMT on February 01, 2008

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About sullivanweather

Thomas is an avid weather enthusiast, landscaper and organic gardener. This blog is dedicated to Northeast and tropical weather forecasting. Enjoy!

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