Northeast Weather Blog

Significant storm targets Northeast on Friday

By: sullivanweather, 8:49 PM GMT on January 29, 2008

Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings

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Regional Forecast

A warm front will approach from the southwest tonight as a strong area of low pressure wraps up just north of the Great Lakes spreading rain showers across the southern two-thirds of the Northeast with a mix up north. A strong cold front blows through the region during the early morning west, reaching the coast by early afternoon. Any leftover shower activity will change to snow before ending. There will be some lake-effect over the Niagara Frontier and north of the Tug Hill Plateau as flow will be out of the west-southwest following the frontal passage. Some arctic air will skirt by the far north, but for the most part the air following the front should drop temperatures back to within a few degrees of normal. High pressure settles over the region on Thursday as a southern stream system approaches from the southwest. The models are currently divided between two solutions for Friday's storm. One model camp holds on to the primary over the Ohio Valley longer with a weaker secondary development, while the other camp develops a secondary along a strong coastal front which quickly becomes the dominate low. This second solution would bring a substantial snowfall across the interior while the first solution would bring more a a mix precipitation event for these areas. So there's big bust potential with this storm. Given the expected QPF amounts with this storm, the difference in the two model camps is the differenece between a foot plus snowstorm as a few inches of slop. This low moves out of the picture Saturday, with an area of high pressure building in and a seasonably mild airmass in its wake. Early next week another southern stream low begins to get organized over the center of the country. This will move towards the Northeast by Monday, spreading a more significant round of precpitation over the region yet again.

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Warm front situated across the region this afternoon. South of the front temperatures and dewpoints are in the 40's while to the north temperatures and dewpoints are still in the 20's and 30's. This warm front will slowly progress northeastward this evening into the overnight, spreading milder air and rain showers across most of the region. A band of steadier rain could develop, but this will quickly move through the region with steadier precipitation not lasting longer than 3 or 4 hours in any one location. Northern New York and New England may have to deal with a wintry mix of precipitation later tonight with temperatures remaining below freezing. A few pockets of freezing rain could also exist over the Catskills and Berkshires as colder surface air could be tough to scour out over the sheltered valleys. Precipitation amounts aren't expected to be much due to the very progressive nature of this system. Perhaps a quarter to a half an inch. With the recent cold temperatures over the region no hydrologic issues will be of concern. Ice that has developed on area rivers shouldn't break up and the snowpack over the region should absorb most of whatever else falls. Temperatures will hover in the 40's across the lake plains, most of Pennsylvania and New Jersey, southeastern New York and coastal southern New England. Across the interior temperatures will hover in the 30's with near or below freezing temperatures limited to the far north. Winds will increase out of the south, espcially over the lake plain and higher elevations along the spine of the Appalachians, to 20-30 mph. Elsewhere over the Northeast winds will remain lighter out of the south around 5-15 mph.


A sharp negatively tilting trough will rapidly move across the region, entering western areas after midnight and blowing offshore by Wednesday afternoon. The air behind this front will be sharply colder, changing any remaining precipitation over to snow showers before ending. Temperatures will drop several degrees after the frontal passage and hover at those readings during peak heating tomorrow afternoon before dropping again late. Lake-effect snow showers will develop on a mean west-southwesterly wind flow. Several inches of snow will fall across the Niagara Frontier and around the Watertown area. The wintry mix of precipitation over northern New England will decrease in coverage as temperatures slowly warm above freezing during the morning hours. After the frontal passage during the late morning or early afternoon, precipitation will change quickly over the snow showers with upslope regions seeing an inch or two. The other big story tomorrow will be the wind. With strong low pressure wrapping up to the north of the region and high pressure quickly building in, the pressure gradient/rise-fall couplet will be conducive to producing very strong winds, especially across the north. Strong cold air advection will make for some very gusty conditions as well. Winds over the southern portions of the region will range from 20-30mph with gusts to 40mph. However over the northern sections winds will blow from 30-45mph with gusts as high as 60mph, especially along the lakes and over the higher terrrain. Skies will gradually clear after the frontal passage aside from the snow belts and higher terrain.


Wednesday evening will be breezy and chilly for much of the Northeast with lake effect snow showers over the snow belts on a continued westerly to west-southwesterly flow. Several more inches of snow may accumulate in these areas before high pressure begins to build in towards daybreak. Elsewhere over the Northeast skies will continue to clear with diminishing winds after midnight. Lows will range from the 20's along the coastal plain to teens and single digits over the interior from south to north. Some lows may drop below zero across the higher elevations of the Adirondacks, Green and Whites and over northern Maine. Winds will be out of the west to west-southwest around 15-25mph with higher gusts during the evening, becoming much lighter after midnight.

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High pressure builds into the Northeast on Thursday, bringing a fair day to most with temperatures running near or slightly above normal. Attention turns to a developing southern stream disturbance in the southern plains. A vigorous 500mb trough will roll out of the southern Rocky's spawning a surface low pressure over northeastern Texas. This low will then head up into the Ohio Valley Thursday night. From this point on there's considerable spread within the models as some show a secondary low pressure forming along a strong coastal front while others hold on to the primary low as it heads into the eastern lakes. Either way, precipitation will move into the Northeast from southwest to northeast Thursday night after midnight. The initial burst of precipitation away from the coast could be snow or a mixture of snow, sleet and freezing rain. Areas of southern New Jersey and extreme sotheastern Pennsylvania should see precipitation begin as mainly rain, although some frozen precipitation cannot be ruled out.


Evolution of complex area of low pressure on Friday will determine whether or not the Northeast sees a major winter storm, or more of a rain storm. Most storms with a similar set-up this winter have held on to their primary low into the eastern Great Lakes with secondary development occuring over New England, bringing heavy snows across northern New England and a changeover across the rest of the region. This scenario is a distinct possibility with this storm as well, although there are several factors that would suggest otherwise. First, there is a strong, although somewhat transient, 1040mb high over northern New England and the Canadian Martimes. Secondly, offshore waters are some 8-12 degrees colder now then they were in early December when a few of these systems came through. Since there are two model camps set up for this system means are showing the placement of low pressure over central Pennsylvania. Don't be fooled. This will either go one way or the other. Behaviour of the 500mb low while over the Mississippi Valley will be important as well. If it is able to cut off a strong enough low pressure at 500mb, it should help to hold the west-east thermal field to the northeast of the low pressure as flow turns easterly as opposed to southeasterly.

This time around I think I will put my cards in the development of a secondary low along the developing coastal front, with a snowier scenario for the Northeast, eventhough I've been burned once before this winter on this very same forecast. Believe the high to the northeast will hold on long enough and offshore thermal gradient be strong enough to force a transfer of energy to the coastal system, keeping the primary low at bay.

Following this scenario, northern sections will primarily see snow. Across central New York over to central New England, snow will fall for several hours before changing over to sleet then back to snow before ending. Northern Pennsylvania to the Catskills, Mid-Hudson Valley, Taconics and interior southern New England will see snow develop with a light to moderate accumulation before precipitation changes over to an extended period of sleet and freezing rain before ending as snow. Central Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey, southeastern New York and the rest of southern New England away from the immediate coast will see an initial burst of snow which could leave a coating to a couple of inches. Then precipitation will change to sleet and freezing rain for several hours and eventually rain before changing back to snow before ending as heights crash and cold ar floods the region as storm pulls away. Coastal locations, central and southern New Jersey and southern Pennsylvania will see mainly a rain storm, although a brief burst of snow and/or sleet could start things off. Precipitation should taper before it becomes cold enough for any accumulating snow, although some passing flurries cannot be ruled out.

The storm moves into New England Friday night. The bulk of the precipitation will be over with by midnight, except for some wrap around snows over northern New York and New England. There could also be a few lake enhanced snow showers. Temperatrues aloft are marginal at best, but good synoptic moisture will remain over the region which will also promote the development of some upslope snow showers over the higher terrain of northern New England. Otherwise expect clearing skies and a brisk northwesterly breeze. Temperatures will remain several degrees above normal with lack of cold airmass following the system.

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High pressure builds into the region for the weekend with mainly fair skies and temperatures running slightly above normal for early February.

The next system of concern, another southern stream disturbance, will move into the Northeast early next week. Again, there will be an area of high pressure over the Canadian Maritimes with a margially cold airmass in place over the region. Precipitation type will be an issue yet again with a transition zone likely setting up over the interior. There will be a brief 18-24 hour break before the next system moves through Tuesday night and Wednesday with a similar set-up.


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Useful links

Models

National Centers for Environmental Prediction (American models)

Canadian global model (GGEM)

Canadian regional model (RGEM)

European ECMWF model

Pennsylvania State University 'E-wall'

Canadianweather.org model page

Florida State University model page

Cyclone phase evolution

SUNY Stony Brook MM5 model

Northeast HiRes WRF model

Model biases


Climate info

Climate Prediction Center
NOAA's operational climate program. Links to many climate indicators including ENSO, MJO, teleconnections, outlooks, temperature and precipitation monitoring, stratospheric information, etc.

National Climatic Data Center

Weathercharts.org
Wealth of weather charts and maps

Cryosphere Today (Snow and ice cover updated daily)

United States extremes for specific locations


Climate change links and info

Met office Hadley Centre

NASA GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies)

Real Climate (climate blog)

Climate Policy (AMS project)

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Here's a preliminary list of some useful links that I will add to now and then when time allows.



___________________________________________________________

Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar

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Current Northeast Snowcover

Northeast Snowcover


MODIS Rapid Response satellite photo of Northeast snow cover (12/06/2007)


___________________________________________________________

Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.

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Great Lakes SST's 1/25/2008

Great Lakes SST's as of 01/25/2008.

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Fillipini's Pond conditions (Lake across street)

11/6: 42°F
11/9: 37°F
11/11: 33°F - 1st morning with grease ice on lake.
11/17: 33°F
11/22: 34°F
11/24: 32°F - patchy ice on lake this morning
11/25: 32°F - lake iced over completely, melting along the shores during the afternoon.
12/1: Patchy ice has been on the lake all week. Lake should freeeze over completely tonight.
12/3: Lake is frozen over and covered with snow. Thickness measurements starting soon.

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January Daily Weather Statistics

Date___________Hi/Lo____Precip___Sun___Snow____(Snowdepth)

January 1st - 36°F/18°F....0.26"....20%..3.4"...(10")
January 2nd - 28°F/5°F.....0.01"....75%..0.1"...(13")
January 3rd - 10°F/-5°F....Trace...100%..Trace..(13")
January 4th - 25°F/-3°F....0.00"....30%..0.0"...(13")
January 5th - 36°F/9°F.....0.08"....20%..0.1"...(12")
January 6th - 43°F/29°F....0.02"....0%...0.0"...(11")
January 7th - 56°F/36°F....0.00"....50%..0.0"...(9")
January 8th - 59°F/36°F....0.00"....35%..0.0"...(5")
January 9th - 54°F/35°F....0.34"....40%..0.0"...(2")
January 10th - 39°F/28°F....0.04"....80%..0.0"...(1")
January 11th - 43°F/32°F....0.31"....20%..0.0"...(1")
January 12th - 38°F/27°F....0.00"....20%..0.0"...(1")
January 13th - 36°F/23°F....0.23"....15%..2.7"...(1")
January 14th - 31°F/27°F....0.08"....0%...0.9"...(3")
January 15th - 28°F/19°F....0.04"....10%..0.4"...(3")
January 16th - 29°F/13°F....Trace....55%..Trace..(3")
January 17th - 26°F/9°F.....0.17"....0%...1.6"...(3")
January 18th - 37°F/23°F....0.06"....70%..0.2"...(4")
January 19th - 33°F/18°F....Trace....10%..Trace..(3")
January 20th - 21°F/8°F.....Trace....80%..Trace..(3")
January 21st - 18°F/2°F.....0.00"....95%..0.0"...(3")
January 22nd - 29°F/8°F.....0.03"....30%..0.4"...(3")
January 23rd - 30°F/16°F....Trace....80%..Trace..(3")
January 24th - 24°F/12°F....Trace....10%..Trace..(3")
January 25th - 25°F/9°F.....Trace....80%..Trace..(3")
January 26th - 28°F/15°F....Trace....15%..0.1"...(3")
January 27th - 33°F/19°F....Trace....50%..0.1"...(3")
January 28th - 34°F/20°F....0.00"....90%..0.0"...(2")
January 29th - 33°F/18°F....0.16"....0%...0.0"...(2")



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Updated: 12:24 PM GMT on January 30, 2008

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Oceanic storm to brush coastal areas Sunday and Monday.

By: sullivanweather, 12:09 AM GMT on January 26, 2008

Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings

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Regional Forecast


Outside of some lake-effect affecting the Tug Hill Plateau and areas south of Buffalo a modified arctic airmass and building ridge will bring tranquil weather for most in the Northeast in the near term. High pressure will move offshore Saturday morning as a northern stream trough approaches from the west. This trough will spread clouds and a few snow showers across the region. More importantly, it will phase up with an impressive sub-tropical jet moving across the Southeast, forming low pressure off the Carolina coastline by Sunday. Pattern is becoming increasingly blocked over the western north Atlantic, which will keep this low pressure close enough for coastal areas to at least see some fringe effects and perhaps something more significant lasting into Monday. Another trough approaches from the west on Tuesday and Wednesday. Light precipitation will spread into the Northeast with this feature and much colder air will move in behind it. This cold airmass could set the stage for a more significant winter storm by Friday and Saturday as a low pressure in the southern stream makes a run towards the area.

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High pressure building just south of the Mason-Dixon line will bring fair weather to most of the Northeast over the next 18-24 hours. The only problem areas are downwind of the Great Lakes were a few snow showers and squalls continue. The heaviest snowfall will occur over the Tug Hill plateau where snowfall rates of over an inch per hour will continue until midnight before bands begin to disperse as flow turns anti-cyclonic. Snow showers coming off Lake Erie will deposit an additional inch or so as they have already begun to taper. High pressure moves off Tidewater Saturday morning and builds towards the Canadian Martimes as a moisture starved trough approaching from the Great Lakes by the afternoon. Clouds will increase from the west as the day progresses with snow showers moving over western sections by late afternoon. Low Friday night will range from the upper teens to low 20's along coastal areas to single digits and low teens over the much of the interior. Towards the far north and higher terrain temperatures could drop below zero. Temperatures rebound nicely with a weak return flow around departing high pressure on Saturday. Highs along the coastal plain and across southern Pennsylvania and New Jersey will rise into the low to mid 30's with 20's over the interior. The higher terrain across the north country could very well remain in the upper teens.

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Northern stream disturbance will pull through the Northeast Saturday night, spreading snow showers across the southern half of the region with high pressure in control over northern sections. Temperatures will fall into the mid to upper 20's along the coastal plain with low 20's over the southern interior. Over the north country, lows will drop into the teens and single digits.

As the northern stream shortwave moves offshore it will phase with a strong sub-tropical jet stream moving off the Southeast Coast, forming low pressure offshore the Carolinas. This low will intensify quickly into a gale by Sunday morning and move very slowly as upstream pattern becomes blocked. Clouds will hang tough over most of the region with scattered snow showers across New York, Pensylvania, New Jersey and southern New England. Northern New England will see partly cloudy skies with precipitation remaining south of the area as high pressure remains in control. Temperatures will run a few degrees above normal.


Oceanic storm will move within 100-200 miles of the coastlines of New Jersey and southern New England Sunday night and Monday. As this system occludes Sunday night, a band of precipitation will track north-northwestward towards coastal southern New England and eastern Long Island. With marginally cold air over the area intially, the potential exists for an accumulating snow developing after midnight Sunday night for eastern Long Island and extreme southeastern southern New England. This could be a wind blown snow as well, with northeasterly winds along the coast increasing to over 30mph. Furhter inland conditions will remain precipitation free with decreasing levels of cloudiness as one heads northwestward away from the coast. Lows will range from near freezing along the coast to teens and 20's inland.

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Oceanic storm becomes vertically stacked on Monday and incresingly barotropic. Milder maritime air will begin to infiltrate along the coast, bringing about a changeover to rain showers by afternoon. With filling low offshore pulling east-northeastward and weakening forcing aloft, precipitation will taper by evening. Another concern will be the high tide cycles early Monday morning and Monday afternoon as minor coastal flooding could result of persistant northeasterly winds. Away from the coast it will be a fine mid winter day with partly cloudy skies and temperatures running several degrees above normal.

Narrow ridge axis will lie over the Northeast Monday night with partly cloudy skies and temperatures running around 5 degrees above normal.

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By Tuesday a rather strong area of low pressure will move from the northern shores of Lake Superior towards Hudson Bay sending a negatively tilting trough towards the Northeast. Clouds will increase during the day on Tuesday with precipitation entering western sections by evening. Temperatures will run some 5-10 degrees above normal.

A 4 to 8 hour band of precipitation will move through the region during the evening and overnight hours with the leading edge reaching northern New England by morning. Precipitation type will be all rain over the southern half of the interior and along the coastal plain. Over the northern interior precipitation type will be an issue throughout the event. Areas along the lake plains will begin as rain and turn to snow before ending. Further east over the higher elevations freezing rain could be an issue as precipitation begins with valley locations seeing plain rain. All areas could switch to rain before the cold front comes through and changes the higher terrain back over to snow before ending. Northern New England should escape the precipitation until Wednesday with increasing cloud cover here. Temperatures will average 5-15 degrees above normal.

Front rapidly clears the region during the morning hours on Wednesday with any precipitation over New England changing to snow by midday before ending. Colder air floods the with lake-effect snow kicking into gear on a westery to west-southwesterly flow. Temperatures will hold nearly steady from their morning readings and slowly fall after mid-afternoon. Higher terrain of northern New England will also see some upslope snow showers given good synoptic moisture in place and cyclonic flow.


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High pressure will nose its way into the Great Lakes and Northeastern United States on Wednesday night and Thursday as a deep vertically stacked low dominates over northern Quebec. Another modified arctic airmass will move over the region with temperatures falling to near or slightly below seasonable levels with mainly fair conditions outside of the snow belts.


The next low pressure, a southern stream disturbance, will get organized over the Lower mississippi Valley Thursday night and likely move up the west side of the Appalachians during the day on Friday. From there, several scenarios could transpire. One, low pressure phases with northern stream forming a strong system that pushes through the eastern lakes. This would bring a snow to mix to rain situation for most with only northern New England remaining cold enough to hold on to frozen precipitation. Or two, low pressure remains 'baggy' along the frontal boundary. This would result in a weaker Ohio Valley low and secondary development along the Eastern Seaboard. This is also a snowier scenario for the Northeast as warm air gets shunted offshore as new low pressure forms along the coast.

Trends thus far this Winter season the predomainance has been for a stronger primary, with secondary development occuring late, or not at all(scenario one). This remains a distinct possibility. However, this time around, the pattern over eastern North America will be a tad more blocky. A ridge axis/confluence will stretch across the Northeast from the northern Great Lakes southeastward and offshore central New England. These factors could shunt the low eastwards towards the coast, resulting in a snowier scenario.

For now will go will all snow over the northern third of the region, mainly Friday night and Saturday. Across the southern third of the region, precipitation could begin as snow or a mix, but should change to rain as there should be a strong enough push of warm air northward before the system transfers its energy to the coastal system. In the middle precipitation will start as snow, which should fall for several hours before changing over to a mix and perhaps rain if secondary development occurs late or turn back to snow if secondary forms early. Things are likely to switch around before models settle on a solution but there's still a week to watch this one.

This complex low pressure will exit the Northeast during the day on Saturday, leaving behind mostly fair conditions along with some lake-effect likely under cold air advection to close out next weekend.


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Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar

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Current Northeast Snowcover

Northeast Snowcover


MODIS Rapid Response satellite photo of Northeast snow cover (12/06/2007)


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Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.

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Great Lakes SST's 1/25/2008

Great Lakes SST's as of 01/25/2008.

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Fillipini's Pond conditions (Lake across street)

11/6: 42°F
11/9: 37°F
11/11: 33°F - 1st morning with grease ice on lake.
11/17: 33°F
11/22: 34°F
11/24: 32°F - patchy ice on lake this morning
11/25: 32°F - lake iced over completely, melting along the shores during the afternoon.
12/1: Patchy ice has been on the lake all week. Lake should freeeze over completely tonight.
12/3: Lake is frozen over and covered with snow. Thickness measurements starting soon.

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January Daily Weather Statistics

Date___________Hi/Lo____Precip___Sun___Snow____(Snowdepth)

January 1st - 36°F/18°F....0.26"....20%..3.4"...(10")
January 2nd - 28°F/5°F.....0.01"....75%..0.1"...(13")
January 3rd - 10°F/-5°F....Trace...100%..Trace..(13")
January 4th - 25°F/-3°F....0.00"....30%..0.0"...(13")
January 5th - 36°F/9°F.....0.08"....20%..0.1"...(12")
January 6th - 43°F/29°F....0.02"....0%...0.0"...(11")
January 7th - 56°F/36°F....0.00"....50%..0.0"...(9")
January 8th - 59°F/36°F....0.00"....35%..0.0"...(5")
January 9th - 54°F/35°F....0.34"....40%..0.0"...(2")
January 10th - 39°F/28°F....0.04"....80%..0.0"...(1")
January 11th - 43°F/32°F....0.31"....20%..0.0"...(1")
January 12th - 38°F/27°F....0.00"....20%..0.0"...(1")
January 13th - 36°F/23°F....0.23"....15%..2.7"...(1")
January 14th - 31°F/27°F....0.08"....0%...0.9"...(3")
January 15th - 28°F/19°F....0.04"....10%..0.4"...(3")
January 16th - 29°F/13°F....Trace....55%..Trace..(3")
January 17th - 26°F/9°F.....0.17"....0%...1.6"...(3")
January 18th - 37°F/23°F....0.06"....70%..0.2"...(4")
January 19th - 33°F/18°F....Trace....10%..Trace..(3")
January 20th - 21°F/8°F.....Trace....80%..Trace..(3")
January 21st - 18°F/2°F.....0.00"....95%..0.0"...(3")
January 22nd - 29°F/8°F.....0.03"....30%..0.4"...(3")
January 23rd - 30°F/16°F....Trace....80%..Trace..(3")
January 24th - 24°F/12°F....Trace....10%..Trace..(3")
January 25th - 25°F/9°F.....Trace....80%..Trace..(3")
January 26th - 28°F/15°F....Trace....15%..0.1"...(3")
January 27th - 33°F/19°F....Trace....50%..0.1"...(3")



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Updated: 7:39 AM GMT on January 28, 2008

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A pattern change for the Northeast.

By: sullivanweather, 9:32 PM GMT on January 24, 2008

Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings

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Commentary

I will have an update out later this afternoon as to the potential for the oceanic storm this weekend into early next week to come a bit closer than previously indicated. Coastal New England and Long Island could get brushed with precipitation to go along with some gale force winds and high seas that could lead to some beach erosion and perhaps some minor coastal flooding.


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Regional Forecast


Oceanic storm developing off the Delmarva coast will head out to sea this Thursday night with the northwestern edge of the precipitation shield clipping coastal locations up to southern New England. Arctic front dropping southwards behind this storm will usher in very chilly air on northwesterly winds. Lake effect snow and quite possibly, ocean-effect snow for a few hours will develop overnight and Friday. High pressure builds south of the region through Friday night and weakens as another shortwave trough approaches for the weekend. Upon moving offshore this system will develop into a rather formiddable oceanic storm, stalling a few hundred miles off the coast as the pattern over the western Atlantic gets blocky. This should keep the Northeast in a maritime polar airmass until the next trough approaches Tuesday night and Wednesday. Strong low pressure will develop over the northern Plains and head towards the western shores of Hudson Bay. With a blocking pattern developing this should act to tilt this approaching trough negative as it heads into the Northeast. Looking increasingly anafrontal the cold front will cross the region Wednesday with temperatures dropping to near or slightly below normal behind it.

Looking ahead to next weekend the possibility exists for a major storm in the eastern half of the nation with enough cold air on the northern periphery of this storm that will lead to a significant snowfall. Exactly where this band of snow falls is yet to be determined, but chances for some level of wintry precipitation next weekend look fair at this time.

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Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar

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Current Northeast Snowcover

Northeast Snowcover


MODIS Rapid Response satellite photo of Northeast snow cover (12/06/2007)


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Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.

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Great Lakes SST's 12/07/2007

Great Lakes SST's as of 01/13/2008.

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Fillipini's Pond conditions (Lake across street)

11/6: 42°F
11/9: 37°F
11/11: 33°F - 1st morning with grease ice on lake.
11/17: 33°F
11/22: 34°F
11/24: 32°F - patchy ice on lake this morning
11/25: 32°F - lake iced over completely, melting along the shores during the afternoon.
12/1: Patchy ice has been on the lake all week. Lake should freeeze over completely tonight.
12/3: Lake is frozen over and covered with snow. Thickness measurements starting soon.

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January Daily Weather Statistics

Date___________Hi/Lo____Precip___Sun___Snow____(Snowdepth)

January 1st - 36°F/18°F....0.26"....20%..3.4"...(10")
January 2nd - 28°F/5°F.....0.01"....75%..0.1"...(13")
January 3rd - 10°F/-5°F....Trace...100%..Trace..(13")
January 4th - 25°F/-3°F....0.00"....30%..0.0"...(13")
January 5th - 36°F/9°F.....0.08"....20%..0.1"...(12")
January 6th - 43°F/29°F....0.02"....0%...0.0"...(11")
January 7th - 56°F/36°F....0.00"....50%..0.0"...(9")
January 8th - 59°F/36°F....0.00"....35%..0.0"...(5")
January 9th - 54°F/35°F....0.34"....40%..0.0"...(2")
January 10th - 39°F/28°F....0.04"....80%..0.0"...(1")
January 11th - 43°F/32°F....0.31"....20%..0.0"...(1")
January 12th - 38°F/27°F....0.00"....20%..0.0"...(1")
January 13th - 36°F/23°F....0.23"....15%..2.7"...(1")
January 14th - 31°F/27°F....0.08"....0%...0.9"...(3")
January 15th - 28°F/19°F....0.04"....10%..0.4"...(3")
January 16th - 29°F/13°F....Trace....55%..Trace..(3")
January 17th - 26°F/9°F.....0.17"....0%...1.6"...(3")
January 18th - 37°F/23°F....0.06"....70%..0.2"...(4")
January 19th - 33°F/18°F....Trace....10%..Trace..(3")
January 20th - 21°F/8°F.....Trace....80%..Trace..(3")
January 21st - 18°F/2°F.....0.00"....95%..0.0"...(3")
January 22nd - 29°F/8°F.....0.03"....30%..0.4"...(3")
January 23rd - 30°F/16°F....Trace....80%..Trace..(3")
January 24th - 24°F/12°F....Trace....10%..Trace..(3")



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Updated: 6:47 PM GMT on January 25, 2008

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Cold until this weekend, then a warm-up. Stormy pattern developing next week.

By: sullivanweather, 5:25 PM GMT on January 23, 2008

Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings


Commentary

A brief update, for now. I will be out of the house after 1 O'clock and won't be home until later tonight. I will be down at my parents house after 3pm and they have internet connection, but the resources on their computer isn't nearly as complete as mine at home.

So I'll probably have my synopsis out within the hour and perhaps the short term update. Long term won't be out until later.



___________________________________________________________


Regional Forecast


Weak high pressure to the south of the region this Wednesday will keep westerly flow going over the region with lake-effect snows continuing across the snow belts. A vigorous shortwave trough swings through the region tonight and Thursday, but is lacking decent moisture to produce anything more than a few snow showers across the region. As this shortwave heads offshore it will spawn quite an impressive ocean storm which could clip coastal sections with an inch or two of snow on its northwest fringes before heading out to sea. Northwesterly flow behind this system will drag another arctic airmass over the region and reactivate the lake-effect machine with a multi-band scenario lasting into Friday before sprawling high pressure building south of the region turns the flow anti-cyclonic and lifts these bands northward. This high will move offshore Saturday, giving way to another shortwave trough that will spread light precipitation into the region over the weekend along with a moderating trend. Models diverge in their solutions early next week with the GFS much more amplified with a trough heading out of the western states than it's much flatter GGEM operational counterpart with the ECMWF somewhere inbetween. The GFS might be trying to move too big a chunk of the western cut-off eastward while the GGEM is holding too much of it back over the four-corners region. Either way, sub-tropical moisture will be moving into the southwest as an MJO pulse spreads into the eastern Pacific and becomes incorporated into the North American weather pattern which will spell a much more active week weather-wise for the contiguous United States. The pattern over the western north Atlantic will be crucial in determining the sensible weather here in the Northeast during this timeframe and models are very touch and go at this time with this developing pattern, showing very little run to run consistancy. It could wind up very rainy or very snowy, depending on which way the NAO decides to tilt, which has been stuck in neutral phase for almost a month.


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Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar

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Current Northeast Snowcover

Northeast Snowcover


MODIS Rapid Response satellite photo of Northeast snow cover (12/06/2007)


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Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.

---------------------------

Great Lakes SST's 12/07/2007

Great Lakes SST's as of 01/13/2008.

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Fillipini's Pond conditions (Lake across street)

11/6: 42°F
11/9: 37°F
11/11: 33°F - 1st morning with grease ice on lake.
11/17: 33°F
11/22: 34°F
11/24: 32°F - patchy ice on lake this morning
11/25: 32°F - lake iced over completely, melting along the shores during the afternoon.
12/1: Patchy ice has been on the lake all week. Lake should freeeze over completely tonight.
12/3: Lake is frozen over and covered with snow. Thickness measurements starting soon.

___________________________________________________________


January Daily Weather Statistics

Date___________Hi/Lo____Precip___Sun___Snow____(Snowdepth)

January 1st - 36°F/18°F....0.26"....20%..3.4"...(10")
January 2nd - 28°F/5°F.....0.01"....75%..0.1"...(13")
January 3rd - 10°F/-5°F....Trace...100%..Trace..(13")
January 4th - 25°F/-3°F....0.00"....30%..0.0"...(13")
January 5th - 36°F/9°F.....0.08"....20%..0.1"...(12")
January 6th - 43°F/29°F....0.02"....0%...0.0"...(11")
January 7th - 56°F/36°F....0.00"....50%..0.0"...(9")
January 8th - 59°F/36°F....0.00"....35%..0.0"...(5")
January 9th - 54°F/35°F....0.34"....40%..0.0"...(2")
January 10th - 39°F/28°F....0.04"....80%..0.0"...(1")
January 11th - 43°F/32°F....0.31"....20%..0.0"...(1")
January 12th - 38°F/27°F....0.00"....20%..0.0"...(1")
January 13th - 36°F/23°F....0.23"....15%..2.7"...(1")
January 14th - 31°F/27°F....0.08"....0%...0.9"...(3")
January 15th - 28°F/19°F....0.04"....10%..0.4"...(3")
January 16th - 29°F/13°F....Trace....55%..Trace..(3")
January 17th - 26°F/9°F.....0.17"....0%...1.6"...(3")
January 18th - 37°F/23°F....0.06"....70%..0.2"...(4")
January 19th - 33°F/18°F....Trace....10%..Trace..(3")
January 20th - 21°F/8°F.....Trace....80%..Trace..(3")
January 21st - 18°F/2°F.....0.00"....95%..0.0"...(3")
January 22nd - 29°F/8°F.....0.03"....30%..0.4"...(3")



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Updated: 6:05 PM GMT on January 23, 2008

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Cold continues with weak impulses through the weekend.

By: sullivanweather, 4:04 PM GMT on January 21, 2008

Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings



___________________________________________________________


Regional Forecast


Lake-effect snow is ongoing this Martin Luther King Day over the Mohawk Valley and south of Buffalo on a line extending from Dunkirk to Dansville. Totals of up to 3' since Saturday are being reporting in sections of Oswego County. These lake-effect snows are on the wane with an additional 2 to 5 inches expected downwind of Lake Erie and 3 to 8 inches expected downwind of Lake Ontario. Otherwise it will be a fair but chilly day across the rest of the Northeast with high clouds increasing from the west as the day progresses. Temperatures will range from the mid to upper 20's along the coastal plain with teens to low 20's across the interior. Higher elevations of northern New York and New England could very well remain in the single digits with wind chills remaining below zero. Winds will be out of the west to northwest at 5 to 15 mph with some higher gusts early and diminish by late afternoon.

Clouds continue to increase tonight as high pressure moves offshore and a bout of warm air advection ensues. Lake-effect snow showers will weaken and drift northwards as the flow turns towards the southwest. With an increasing cloud canopy low temperatures will not drop to levels seen during the previous two nights. Expect low 20's along the coastal plain with single digits and teens over the interior. Higher elevations will still drop slightly below zero, but no where near the -20°F to -25°F readings of last night.

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Trough of low pressure approaching from the west on Tuesday will lower and thicken clouds during the morning hours with precipitation in the form of light snow breaking over over western sections by noon. This will spread east, reaching the coast by evening, lasting into the overnight. QPF amounts will be in the range of a tenth to a third of an inch with highest amounts over the eastern half of the region. Precipitation type along coastal sections will be problematic with rain or sleet from southern New England south. Over the interior precipitation type will be all snow with an inch or two expected. Winds will increase out of the south during the day on Tuesday from 10-20mph, then switch to the west behind the trough during the evening and overnight. Lake-effect will fire back up after the frontal passage with 2-4 inches of snow expected by morning. Highs on Tuesday will rise into the mid 30's along the coastal plain and drop back into the 20's Tuesday night. Over the interior highs will remain in the 20's, dropping back into the teens Tuesday night.

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Precipitation will be over with, for the most part, on Wednesday except for some residual snow showers over northern Maine as the trough heads out to sea. Eastern sections will see mainly fair skies with a light westerly breeze and temperatures near normal as air behind Tuesday trough is not impressively cold. Western sections clouds will hang tough as another spoke of energy in an active northern branch will drop down into the Great Lakes region. Here temperatures will remain slightly below normal due to cloud cover. Lake-effect will continue over the snow-belt, but with light amounts of just a couple of inches expected.

By Wednesday night the aforementioned trough moves into the region bringing some light snow showers. QPF looks minimal, under an tenth of an inch leading to snow accumulations to a dusting to a coating with an inch or two possible over the higher terrain. Low temperatures will be near normal readings.


Trough moves offshore Thursday morning, spawning low pressure that will quickly head out to sea, although there could be some Atlantic moisture that tries to clip southern New England bringing the chance for an inch or two of snow here. Otherwise, skies will gradually clear as the day progresses outside of the lake-effect areas, which will see several inches of snow on a northwesterly flow, rather than the westerly flow of the previous two events. This would bring lake-effect to central New York and perhaps the Finger Lakes region as the flow could favor those lakes becoming involved. Temperatures will not rise much from their early morning readings and could fall after noon as arctic air is drawn into the region once again.


------

A very cold arctic airmass settles overhead of Thursday night that will rival the current airmass over the region. Skies will be mostly clear away from the lakes and winds light which could lead to very cold overnight temperatures. Northern New England could easily drop to the negative teens and 20's with the rest of the interior in the single digits above or below zero. Coastal sections could drop into the low teens with wind chills throughout the region ranging from near zero south to as cold as 30 below zero north. Lake-effect snows will be an issue for central New York State, the Finger Lakes region and perhaps even areas downwind of Lake Champlain if the winds turn northerly enough. Once again, if you will be out and about make sure to carry a winter weather survival kit.


Very cold airmass will remain entrenched over the region Friday as high pressure builds into the Ohio Valley, keeping the Northeast in cold northwesterly flow. Tempertures will remain 10-15 degrees below normal with scattered lake-effect snows continuing.

------------


High pressure moves offshore by this weekend with return flow of air warming temperatures to near normal readings for late January. The return flow will also allow moisture to advect into the region ahead of a weak trough approaching from the west. Snow showers will break ot across the north with a mix or rain south on Saturday. This clears the area by Sunday with a brief break in the precipitation before another disturbance moves into the area by next Monday. This second low looks a bit warmer with the rain/snow line further north. However, the pattern over the North Atlantic seems to become blocky and this could lead the models to being a bit too hasty in moving out the cold air over the region. Later model runs will give a better indication of this developing pattern change.


___________________________________________________________

Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar

___________________________________________________________


Current Northeast Snowcover

Northeast Snowcover


MODIS Rapid Response satellite photo of Northeast snow cover (12/06/2007)


___________________________________________________________

Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.

---------------------------

Great Lakes SST's 12/07/2007

Great Lakes SST's as of 01/13/2008.

-------

Fillipini's Pond conditions (Lake across street)

11/6: 42°F
11/9: 37°F
11/11: 33°F - 1st morning with grease ice on lake.
11/17: 33°F
11/22: 34°F
11/24: 32°F - patchy ice on lake this morning
11/25: 32°F - lake iced over completely, melting along the shores during the afternoon.
12/1: Patchy ice has been on the lake all week. Lake should freeeze over completely tonight.
12/3: Lake is frozen over and covered with snow. Thickness measurements starting soon.

___________________________________________________________


January Daily Weather Statistics

Date___________Hi/Lo____Precip___Sun___Snow____(Snowdepth)

January 1st - 36°F/18°F....0.26"....20%..3.4"...(10")
January 2nd - 28°F/5°F.....0.01"....75%..0.1"...(13")
January 3rd - 10°F/-5°F....Trace...100%..Trace..(13")
January 4th - 25°F/-3°F....0.00"....30%..0.0"...(13")
January 5th - 36°F/9°F.....0.08"....20%..0.1"...(12")
January 6th - 43°F/29°F....0.02"....0%...0.0"...(11")
January 7th - 56°F/36°F....0.00"....50%..0.0"...(9")
January 8th - 59°F/36°F....0.00"....35%..0.0"...(5")
January 9th - 54°F/35°F....0.34"....40%..0.0"...(2")
January 10th - 39°F/28°F....0.04"....80%..0.0"...(1")
January 11th - 43°F/32°F....0.31"....20%..0.0"...(1")
January 12th - 38°F/27°F....0.00"....20%..0.0"...(1")
January 13th - 36°F/23°F....0.23"....15%..2.7"...(1")
January 14th - 31°F/27°F....0.08"....0%...0.9"...(3")
January 15th - 28°F/19°F....0.04"....10%..0.4"...(3")
January 16th - 29°F/13°F....Trace....55%..Trace..(3")
January 17th - 26°F/9°F.....0.17"....0%...1.6"...(3")
January 18th - 37°F/23°F....0.06"....70%..0.2"...(4")
January 19th - 33°F/18°F....Trace....10%..Trace..(3")
January 20th - 21°F/8°F.....Trace....80%..Trace..(3")
January 21st - 18°F/2°F.....0.00"....95%..0.0"...(3")



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Updated: 3:08 PM GMT on January 22, 2008

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Arctic air invasion/lake-effect

By: sullivanweather, 1:32 PM GMT on January 19, 2008

Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings

----------

Commentary

Short term forecast should be out by 9am. Longer term by 10am.


___________________________________________________________


Regional Forecast


Low pressure in the south will head out to sea as an arctic front crosses the region today. Lake-effect snow and brutally cold air will following in the arctic fronts' wake, lasting into Martin Luther King Day when high pressure builds south of the area. A weak fast moving disturbance will cross the region on Tuesday bringing light precipitation, mainly in the form of snow. The attending cold front will reenforce the cold air and bring another round of lake-effect snow that will last through Thursday with the aid of a couple minor shortwave disturbances that will drop into the Northeast on a northwesterly flow. Transient high moves through the region on Friday as another trough appraoches for next weekend, bringing chances for rain and snow.

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A southern stream low pressure system will head out to sea via the Carolinas this Saturday, too far south to bring anything more than some high clouds to the region while at the same time a strong arctic front will be approaching from the west. Winds ahead of this front are shifting to the southwest, lifting lake-effect bands into the Niagra Frontier and into the St.Lawrence Valley of northern New York. As this front crosses through the region winds will quickly shift from the west and become quite gusty. Some snow showers or squalls may accompany this front as it moves through the region which could drop a fast inch of snow. Moisture is lacking ahead of the front but dynamics are impressive and should be able to overcome this lack of moisture. After the frontal passage lake-effect bands will become west-east oriented and quite intense, especially off Lake Ontario where snow rates with these bands could approach 2-3" an hour by evening. Elsewhere over the Northeast skies should be partly cloudy before the frontal passage with temperatures close to, or slightly above seasonal norms. Highs will reach the mid to upper 30's along the coasal plain with mid to upper 20's over the interior, except for the higher terrain where highs around 20°F should do. Over western sections where the front should pass by before noon temperatures should begin to fall during the afternoon hours.


The arctic front will push offshore tongiht with strong cold air advection behind it and rapidly falling temperatures. Lake-effect snows will continue with the Tug Hill Plateau region of New York expected to pick up well over a foot of snow tonight. In western New York southern Erie, Wyoming, Allegany Chautauqua and Cattaraugus Counties as well as the western Pennsylvania countries of Erie, Crawford and Warren could see accumulations of up to a foot of snow. Just outside of these areas could see accumulations of 3-6 inches, including the western Adirondacks. Elsewhere there could be some scattered snow showers away from the lakes but low level dry air should act to dry up much of the activity away from the lakes. This should lead to partly cloud to mostly clear skies for much of the rest of the Northeast. Temperatures will drop into the single digits across the interior with lows below zero over the higher terrain. Along the coastal plain temperatures will drop into the teens and 20's. With gusty west winds behind the front wind chills should drop well below zero inland and approach zero along the coastal plain.

-----

Strong cold advection continues into Sunday as 850mb temperatures bottom out from -21°C to -30°C from south to north. Lake-effect snows will continue on a westerly flow in the snow belts with favored areas picking up an additional 6-12 inches of wind blown snow. A weak short wave passing overhead Sunday afternoon might provide enough additional lift to carry a few snowbands further from the lakes. Otherwise expect a bitterly cold and blustery day for all of the region with temperatures struggling to crack 10°F over the interior with upper teens to low 20's along the coastal plain. Would not be surprised if some of the higher elevations of the Adirondacks and Green and Whites did not rise above zero. Wind chills will be another factor with many areas remaining below zero in the wind chill department and areas along the coastal plain staying in the single digits. Winds will continue to blow out of the west at 10-20 mph with higher gusts for much of the day before diminishing across southern areas during the late afternoon as high pressure begins to build in.

1040mb high pressure will move by south of the Mason-Dixon line Sunday night with a cold westerly flow of air continuing. Winds will diminish some, allowing for better radiational cooling conditions across the southern areas where lows will fall into the low teens and single digits. Areas along the coastal plain will not fare much better with temperatures in the teens during the overnight. However, across the interior temperatures will bottom out in the low single digits to as much as 20 degrees below zero the further north one heads towards northern Maine. With winds still an issue across the north some extremely low wind chill values exceeding 30 degrees below zero are possible, so it will be dangerously cold outside. Now would be a good time to assemble a survival kit if anyone has plans on traveling Sunday night across the Northeast. Downwind of the Great Lakes the lake-effect machine will be ongoing, but winding down as inversions lower and very dry air moves overhead. Despite all this some significant accumulations of up to 6 inches are still possible given the extremely low water content of the snow that will be falling.

**Please visit THIS LINK for information on what should be included in a winter weather survival kit. It just may save your life!

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1040mb+ high pressure crests south of the region on Monday with lake-effect snow showers ongoing over the snow belts, but weakening further. Much of the rest of the region will spend the forst half of the day mostly clear with high clouds moving into the western half of the region by afternoon. Eastern sections will remain mostly clear with very cold conditions area-wide. Temperatures will remain 10-15 degrees below normal for what is the, climatologically, the coldest time of the year.


Rest of forecast remains unchanged...

------------

With high pressure moving offshore Monday night and Tuesday, broad southwesterly flow will ensue bringing a moderating trend. A wave of low pressure will move through the eastern Great Lakes bringing a warm front and associated isentropic lift through the region, setting off some scattered snow showers. The highest concentration of these snow showers will be across northern areas of New York and New England where a light accumulation of snow is possible. To the south amounts should be held under an inch as moisture will be lacking and best lift moves north of this area. Temperatures will approach normal readings for late January with 20's across the north and readings near freezing south.


After passage of the trough temperatures will drop to slightly below normal readings once again Wednesday, as 850mb temperatures drop from -16°C to -22°C from south to north. The lake-effect machine will fire up once again with light accumulations over the snow belts. This event won't be nearly as long lasting as the current lake-effect event that's ongoing over the eastern lakes. The rest of the Northeast will be mostly clear skies.

Clouds increase from the west once again Wednesday night as a clipper low dropping into the Northern Plains will move into the Great Lakes region. Backing flow will lift any residual lake bands north into the Niagara Frontier and north of the Tug Hill Plateau region during the evening hours before they, too, gradually taper. Some light synoptic snow showers will spread into western sections by midnight and spread eastward, reaching the coast by daybreak. Lows will run several degrees below normal with cold airmass in place.

-----------

Clipper low heads offshore during the day on Thursday. Before doing so this low has a slight potential to tap into some Atlantic moisture and bring a light 1-3" snowfall to much of New England before heading out to sea. Lake-effect will start up again as this low pressure wraps another fairly significant cold airmass in behind it on a northwest flow. High temperatures on Thursday will once again drop to nearly 10 degrees below seasonal averages area-wide.

High pressure will build in from the west on Friday and Saturday, providing the region with mainly fair skies and light winds. A moderating trend will take hold once again with temperatures returning to near normal levels by the first half of the weekend.

As high pressure moves offshore Saturday night, return flow around this high will start to advect some moisture into the area. Clouds will increase and overnight lows should remain above normal for the first time in a week.

By Sunday a disturbance in the southern branch could begin to spread precipitation into the region. With the cold airmass gone precipitation type will be an issue. For now will go with snow north and a mix or rain to the south. The low pressure is progged to track south of the region so that should limit how far north the transition zone gets with this system. With a week to watch this one there will be time for adjustments, but at this time it appears this storm could be the most significant precipitation event of the month of January.


___________________________________________________________

Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar

___________________________________________________________


Current Northeast Snowcover

Northeast Snowcover


MODIS Rapid Response satellite photo of Northeast snow cover (12/06/2007)


___________________________________________________________

Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.

---------------------------

Great Lakes SST's 12/07/2007

Great Lakes SST's as of 01/13/2008.

-------

Fillipini's Pond conditions (Lake across street)

11/6: 42°F
11/9: 37°F
11/11: 33°F - 1st morning with grease ice on lake.
11/17: 33°F
11/22: 34°F
11/24: 32°F - patchy ice on lake this morning
11/25: 32°F - lake iced over completely, melting along the shores during the afternoon.
12/1: Patchy ice has been on the lake all week. Lake should freeeze over completely tonight.
12/3: Lake is frozen over and covered with snow. Thickness measurements starting soon.

___________________________________________________________


January Daily Weather Statistics

Date___________Hi/Lo____Precip___Sun___Snow____(Snowdepth)

January 1st - 36°F/18°F....0.26"....20%..3.4"...(10")
January 2nd - 28°F/5°F.....0.01"....75%..0.1"...(13")
January 3rd - 10°F/-5°F....Trace...100%..Trace..(13")
January 4th - 25°F/-3°F....0.00"....30%..0.0"...(13")
January 5th - 36°F/9°F.....0.08"....20%..0.1"...(12")
January 6th - 43°F/29°F....0.02"....0%...0.0"...(11")
January 7th - 56°F/36°F....0.00"....50%..0.0"...(9")
January 8th - 59°F/36°F....0.00"....35%..0.0"...(5")
January 9th - 54°F/35°F....0.34"....40%..0.0"...(2")
January 10th - 39°F/28°F....0.04"....80%..0.0"...(1")
January 11th - 43°F/32°F....0.31"....20%..0.0"...(1")
January 12th - 38°F/27°F....0.00"....20%..0.0"...(1")
January 13th - 36°F/23°F....0.23"....15%..2.7"...(1")
January 14th - 31°F/27°F....0.08"....0%...0.9"...(3")
January 15th - 28°F/19°F....0.04"....10%..0.4"...(3")
January 16th - 29°F/13°F....Trace....55%..Trace..(3")
January 17th - 26°F/9°F.....0.17"....0%...1.6"...(3")
January 18th - 37°F/23°F....0.06"....70%..0.2"...(4")
January 19th - 33°F/18°F....Trace....10%..Trace..(3")



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Updated: 3:50 PM GMT on January 20, 2008

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Two coastal storms followed by arctic blast

By: sullivanweather, 11:23 AM GMT on January 17, 2008

Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings

----------

Commentary


Will cover the latest trends on the weekend system with an update.

___________________________________________________________


Regional Forecast


Low pressure will track up the East Coast spreading a variety of precipitation into the Northeast over the next 24 to 36 hours. Snow will be confined to inland sections with significant accumulations possible across northern New England. After a brief break Friday night, clouds will spread back into the region Saturday as another coastal low organizes over the deep south and moves offshore Cape Hatteras. This low could track close enough to the region to provide coastal areas with some snowfall. As this low moves away an arctic front will blast through the region bringing much below normal temperatures and lake-effect snows. Transient high moves through the region Monday with a clipper system accompanied by a moderating trend following close behind for Tuesday.

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High pressure is currently moving offshore with clouds already increasing over the Northeast this Thursday morning. These clouds will lower and thicken with precipitation moving into the region from southwest to northeast over the southern half of the region as the day progresses. Most of this precipitation will fall in the form of snow across inland areas, although some rain and sleet could mix in with the snow during the afternoon over southeastern Pennsylvania. Across southern New Jersey precipitation could begin as a brief period of snow or sleet but should change to rain as boundary layer temperatures warm above freezing. Up to an inch or two of snow could fall across central and western Pennsylvania with amounts tapering towards coastal areas to the east. Further north the day should begin with mostly clear skies with high clouds increasing during the afternoon. Temperatures will range from the 20's across northern sections with teens over the higher terrain of northern New York and New England. Across the south temperatures will remain a few degrees below freezing across inland areas but warm above freezing within 50 miles of the coast. Winds will increase from the east and southeast at around 5 to 10 mph.


Precipitation overspreads the rest of the Northeast Thursday night with snow across the interior and rain along the coastal plain. The transition zone will work its way northward as the night progresses with snow changing to sleet and freezing rain over northern New Jersey, southeastern New York and interior southern New England. Light accumulations of snow of up to an inch or two can be expected before the changeover occurs. Where precipitation stays all snow accumulations of up to 3 inches are possible. The areas likely to see such accumulations are the Poconos, Catskills, Berkshires and Adirondacks. Further west snow amounts will taper due to lack of moisture while further north over northern New England the bulk of the precipitation will hold off until Friday. Temperatures will hold in the 30's along the coastal plain with 20's expected over the interior. Area of northern New England should drop into the teens.


By Friday the coastal low will begin to phase with an upper disturbance moving across southern Ontario and Quebec. This will act to enhance precipitation amounts over northern New England where the predominate precipitation type will be snow. This could result in significant amounts of snowfall from eastern Vermont northeastwards into central and northern Maine. Along coastal Maine enough warm air could move in at mid-levels to change precipitation over to a mix of sleet and freezing rain, limiting snow accumulations here. Across the southern half of the region the precipitation will have moved north with clearing skies. Weak cold air advection following the storm will allow for some lake-effect to develop during the afternoon hours but accumulations will be on the light side. Temepratures will range from near 40°F across the coastal plain with 30's over the southern interior. 20's will do over the northern interior with temperatures climbing to near freezing over downeast Maine and perhaps a few degrees above along the immediate Maine coastline.


Snowfall through Friday

--------

Things quiet down Friday night as precipitation pulls out of the region, into the Canadian Maritimes. Skies will become partly cloudy outside of some lake clouds and snow showers which could deposit an a couple of inches of snow on a 270° flow. Temperatures will drop into the teens and single digits over the interior with 20's along the coastal plain.

Clouds increase rapidly on Saturday as a low pressure approaches from the south and an arctic front approaches from the west. Models are inconclusive on the movement of this low pressure as it races northeastward offshore near Cape Hatteras. The NAM is furthest west with this low, bringing a fairly significant snowfall to coastal areas while other models have a track much further offshore, just grazing coastal areas with some light precipitation. At this juncture will go for a compromise solutions which brings some light snowfall totals within 50 miles of the coast. Early call would give 1-3" just inland of the coast with amounts as high as 6" to the Cape, Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard. If the NAM were to verify these amounts would have to be increased significantly and moved further inland. Since this is a rapidly moving system, snow should not last longer more than 10 hours in any one location, even if the NAM solution were to play itself out. Precipitation from this storm should be done and over with by late Saturday night. Behind this system an arctic front will blast through the region which could bring a line of snow squalls to the region and much colder temperatures. Lake-effect snows will begin in earnest and widespread snow showers will be present area-wide given the strong cold air advection, PVA and upper trough axis sitting squarely overhead. Temperatures will begin this period near normal and drop to below normal readings by daybreak on Sunday. This situation will have to be closely montiored as a big change in the forecast is a distinct possibility.

1/18 6:30am Update

Possibility for a significant impact from this weekends' potential coastal low are much diminished. At this time it appears only the eastern end of Long Island, Cape Cod, Nanatucket and Martha's Vineyard stand any chance of seeing an accumulating snowfall from this system, perhaps an inch or two. It will continue to be monitored for any westward trends, which appear to be unlikely.

Focus this weekend will be on the very cold airmass moving into the Northeast behind the arctic front along with dangerously low wind chills as well as a significant lake-effect snow event. Details on this will come with tomorrow's blog. I will let this one ride for the rest of the day.

------

Perhaps the coldest airmass of the season thus far will move into the Northeast on Sunday. Lake-effect/upslope snow showers/squalls will continue with northwest flow. Wind chills will be dangerously cold and temperatures will likely hold steady from their morning readings or slowly fall throughout the day. These readings will be some 10-20 degrees below normal for what is the coldest time of the year, climatologically.

It will be another very chilly day on Monday with lake-effect snow continuing in the snow belts, but lifting northwards as the flow turns westerly with high pressure sliding by to the south. Otherwise it will be partly cloudy to mostly clear with the aforementioned high pressure building just south of the Mason-Dixon line. Temperatures will continue to average 10-15 degres below normal, moderating only slightly from Sunday's readings.

-----------

With high pressure moving offshore Monday night and Tuesday, broad southwesterly flow will ensue bringing a moderating trend. A wave of low pressure will move through the eastern Great Lakes bringing a warm front and associated isentropic lift through the region, setting off some scattered snow showers. The highest concentration of these snow showers will be across northern areas of New York and New England where a light accumulation of snow is possible. To the south amounts should be held under an inch as moisture will be lacking and best lift moves north of this area. Temperatures will approach normal readings for late January with 20's across the north and readings near freezing south.

Cold air will filter back into the region Tuesday night and Wednesday with temperatures returning to below normal readings by several degrees. Lake-effect snows will begin once again, however, these will be short lived as high pressure quickly builds in by Wednesday afternoon.

By late next week indications are some sub-tropical moisture will begin to be incorporated into North America via the desert Southwest. The Northeast will still be dominated by the northern branch of the jet but a pattern change will be underway that could allow some of this moisture to work its way towards the area by next weekend.

___________________________________________________________

Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar

___________________________________________________________


Current Northeast Snowcover

Northeast Snowcover


MODIS Rapid Response satellite photo of Northeast snow cover (12/06/2007)


___________________________________________________________

Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.

---------------------------

Great Lakes SST's 12/07/2007

Great Lakes SST's as of 01/13/2008.

-------

Fillipini's Pond conditions (Lake across street)

11/6: 42°F
11/9: 37°F
11/11: 33°F - 1st morning with grease ice on lake.
11/17: 33°F
11/22: 34°F
11/24: 32°F - patchy ice on lake this morning
11/25: 32°F - lake iced over completely, melting along the shores during the afternoon.
12/1: Patchy ice has been on the lake all week. Lake should freeeze over completely tonight.
12/3: Lake is frozen over and covered with snow. Thickness measurements starting soon.

___________________________________________________________


January Daily Weather Statistics

Date___________Hi/Lo____Precip___Sun___Snow____(Snowdepth)

January 1st - 36°F/18°F....0.26"....20%..3.4"...(10")
January 2nd - 28°F/5°F.....0.01"....75%..0.1"...(13")
January 3rd - 10°F/-5°F....Trace...100%..Trace..(13")
January 4th - 25°F/-3°F....0.00"....30%..0.0"...(13")
January 5th - 36°F/9°F.....0.08"....20%..0.1"...(12")
January 6th - 43°F/29°F....0.02"....0%...0.0"...(11")
January 7th - 56°F/36°F....0.00"....50%..0.0"...(9")
January 8th - 59°F/36°F....0.00"....35%..0.0"...(5")
January 9th - 54°F/35°F....0.34"....40%..0.0"...(2")
January 10th - 39°F/28°F....0.04"....80%..0.0"...(1")
January 11th - 43°F/32°F....0.31"....20%..0.0"...(1")
January 12th - 38°F/27°F....0.00"....20%..0.0"...(1")
January 13th - 36°F/23°F....0.23"....15%..2.7"...(1")
January 14th - 31°F/27°F....0.08"....0%...0.9"...(3")
January 15th - 28°F/19°F....0.04"....10%..0.4"...(3")
January 16th - 29°F/13°F....Trace....55%..Trace..(3")
January 17th - 26°F/9°F.....0.17"....0%...1.6"...(3")



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Updated: 3:33 PM GMT on January 18, 2008

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Storm later this week followed by arctic blast

By: sullivanweather, 12:54 PM GMT on January 15, 2008

Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings

----------

Commentary


No major changes to the forecast. Just a small update to Friday's forecast to clean up some messy wording.

___________________________________________________________


Regional Forecast


An upper disturbance will move through Pennsylvania to provide the southern half of the Northeast with widespread snow showers this Tuesday. High pressure builds in on Wednesday before a low in the southern stream moves up the coast Thursday and Friday with snow inland and rain along the coast. Arctic front blasts through the Northeast on Friday night with much colder air and lake effect snows moving into the region behind it lasting into the weekend. A southern stream disturbance will have to be watched this weekend as the Canadian model depicts a second system trying to turn the corner, however this solution is unlikely as mean trough axis appears a bit too far east. Cold continues into Martin Luther King Jr. Day and beyond.

-------

An upper disturbance will rotate through the southern portions of the region this Tuesday. Combined with a surface trough and decent moisture through 700mb, these features will produce snow showers over Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York and southwestern New England throughout the day. Accumulations could amount to an inch or two in some locales, especially across western New York and Pennsylvania due to some lake enhancement. Scattered snow showers will also continue in some wrap-around moisture over northern Maine thanks to yesterday's nor'easter. In between these features some stray flurries are possible, but otherwise it should remain partly to mostly cloudy. Temperatures will range from the 30's along the coastal plain and the southern portions of the interior to the 20's across the northern interior. Winds will be light and out of the northwest across the north, shifting westerly south.


Upper low and surface trough both move offshore during the evening with a gradual decrease in coverage of snow showers. Clouds will also decrease after midnight as drier air advects into the region with high pressure building in. Snow showers could hang tough around the snow belts with light flow of marginally cold air over the lakes. Temperatures will drop back into the teens over the interior with 20's to near 30°F along the coastal plain.

-----

High pressure moves overhead on Wednesday. Some flurries might hang on during the morning downwind of the lakes with a light northerly flow, but for the most part it will be a pleasent day with light winds and mostly sunny skies. Temperatures will rise into the mid and upper 30's along the coastal plain with mid 20's to low 30's over the interior. Higher elevations of northern New York and New England might struggle to reach 20°F. All of these readings will be within a few degrees of normal for mid-January.

High pressure continues to dominate the sensible weather through Wednesday night. With snow cover over much of the region combined with light winds and clear skies, there will be ideal radiational cooling conditions. Lows will drop into the low teens and single digits over the interior with upper teens and 20's along the coastal plain. It would not be surprising if some of the sheltered valleys over the Northeast Kingdom to drop below zero. High clouds could begin to stream into the southern portions of the region by daybreak.


Clouds begin to stream northward on Thursday as a southern stream disturbance attemps to ride up the Eastern Seaboard. What seemed to be another major storm earlier is now looking like a much less intense event, and a warmer one as well. Early indications were for phasing of this southern stream system and a deep trough carving itself ot over the eastern half of the country. This now doesn't occur until the storm reaches the Canadian Maritimes which keeps this a much weaker system with less QPF. None-the-less, precipitation will begin to work its way into the southern portions of the region by Thursday afternoon as light snow over interior Pennsylvania and rain along the coastal plain. Further north, a dry day will be squeezed out with nothing more than some increasing cloud cover. Temperatures will be close to normal.

Precipitation spreads northwards Thursday night as low pressure moves up the coast. With the lack of high pressure to the north and an approaching frontal boundary to the west, warmer air will be drawn inland allowing for a changeover to sleet and freezing rain up to 100 miles inland and rain up to 50 miles inland. Since this will be where the heaviest QPF will fall during the night on Thursday, accumulations doesn't look nearly as impressive as they have on previous model runs. Snow will be confined from central Pennsylvania northeastwards into central/northern New York and central New England. Northern New England should stay dry. Temperatures will rise above freezing along the coastal plain, with teens and 20's over the interior. Winds will increase out of the southeast.

Storm system moves into New England on Friday where phasing begins to occur, but too late for a major storm for the all of the Northeast but early enough to give Maine some significant snowfall. Snow will move into northern New England and continue over central and northern New York. The transition zone will push into central New England and straddle up along the Maine coast. By afternoon the frontal boundary will begin to move into western sections with the lakes beginning to get involved as cold air floods the region. Across the south precipitation will clear the area leaving behind partly cloudy skies.

-------------


Models diverge in their solutions this weekend as the GFS model shows a clipper low moving into the Northeast on Saturday, followed by an arctic blast of air which will fire up the lake-effect machine by Sunday. The Canadian, and to a lesser extent the ECMWF, show the possibility of another southern stream disturbance trying to move up along the coast, bringing a more significant precipitation event to areas within one hundred miles of the coast. It's too early to say with any certainty which solution will verify but bottom line is that much colder weather can be expected with the passage of the arctic fron with 850mb temperatures dropping from -15°C to -24°C from south to north. Lake-effect snow is another certainty with cold air moving over the relatively warm lake waters.




___________________________________________________________

Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar

___________________________________________________________


Current Northeast Snowcover

Northeast Snowcover


MODIS Rapid Response satellite photo of Northeast snow cover (12/06/2007)


___________________________________________________________

Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.

---------------------------

Great Lakes SST's 12/07/2007

Great Lakes SST's as of 01/13/2008.

-------

Fillipini's Pond conditions (Lake across street)

11/6: 42°F
11/9: 37°F
11/11: 33°F - 1st morning with grease ice on lake.
11/17: 33°F
11/22: 34°F
11/24: 32°F - patchy ice on lake this morning
11/25: 32°F - lake iced over completely, melting along the shores during the afternoon.
12/1: Patchy ice has been on the lake all week. Lake should freeeze over completely tonight.
12/3: Lake is frozen over and covered with snow. Thickness measurements starting soon.

___________________________________________________________


January Daily Weather Statistics

Date___________Hi/Lo____Precip___Sun___Snow____(Snowdepth)

January 1st - 36°F/18°F....0.26"....20%..3.4"...(10")
January 2nd - 28°F/5°F.....0.01"....75%..0.1"...(13")
January 3rd - 10°F/-5°F....Trace...100%..Trace..(13")
January 4th - 25°F/-3°F....0.00"....30%..0.0"...(13")
January 5th - 36°F/9°F.....0.08"....20%..0.1"...(12")
January 6th - 43°F/29°F....0.02"....0%...0.0"...(11")
January 7th - 56°F/36°F....0.00"....50%..0.0"...(9")
January 8th - 59°F/36°F....0.00"....35%..0.0"...(5")
January 9th - 54°F/35°F....0.34"....40%..0.0"...(2")
January 10th - 39°F/28°F....0.04"....80%..0.0"...(1")
January 11th - 43°F/32°F....0.31"....20%..0.0"...(1")
January 12th - 38°F/27°F....0.00"....20%..0.0"...(1")
January 13th - 36°F/23°F....0.23"....15%..2.7"...(1")
January 14th - 31°F/27°F....0.08"....0%...0.9"...(3")
January 15th - 28°F/19°F....0.04"....10%..0.4"...(3")



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Updated: 10:23 PM GMT on January 16, 2008

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Two big storms possible this week followed by deep winter chill

By: sullivanweather, 6:50 PM GMT on January 12, 2008

Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings

------

Commentary

Updated the snowfall map as confidence has increased in bringing the axis of heavier snow a tad further SW.

On a side note: GO GIANTS!!!

I would love to see the G-men whip up on 'dem boys' today. If such a scenario would happend we'd have two Ice Bowls next Sunday with an arctic airmass draped over the northern United States. One in Green Bay and another in Foxboro.

___________________________________________________________


Regional Forecast

**Two significant snowstorms possible this week**

Fair weather for the next 24 hours as high pressure controls the sensible weather across the Northeast. Next item of interest is an upper disturbance currently over Texas. This feature will spawn an area of low pressure along the Carolina Coastline that will move northeastward Sunday into Monday bringing snow to inland regions with a mix or rain along the coast. Along with the coastal system will be a clipper type low combined with an upper trough that will provide western sections with scattered light snow showers. This upper feature will pull through the remainder of the Northeast Tuesday, keeeping snow showers in the picture. A transient high pressure works across the region Wednesday before a very complicated situation sets up by weeks' end. An arctic front will be marching across the country while at the same time a fairly significant spoke of energy dips down the backside of a deep trough carving itself out over the central/eastern US. A fairly strong, moisture-laden low pressure will develop in the north-central Gulf of Mexico and take a classic Miller type-A storm path. Aforementioned arctic front blasts through the region following this storm system with much below temperatures and lake-effect snows for next weekend and beyond as large circulation polar vortex drops to a position over Hudson Bay.

-------

Clouds will begin to increase out of the southwest on Sunday as an area of low pressure develops along the Carolina coastline in response to a sharpening 500mb trough and associated vortmax pushing into the Southeast that will tilt negative and eventually cut-off over southeastern New England. This low will ride up the Eastern Seaboard passing about 75-100 miles off the New Jersey Coast Sunday night, over the 40/70 benchmark Monday morning, then up into the Gulf of Maine by Monday afternoon. Given this track a fairly significant snowfall is to be expected along the coastal plain of northeast New Jersey northeastward into New England as well as the adjacent higher terrain to the immediate northwest, including the eastern Poconos, southern Catskills, Taconics and Berkshires. Immediate coastal area of New Jersey, Long Island and Cape Cod sit right on the fence as only a very sliht shift in track would mean a world of difference in a rain vs. snow precipitation-type.

The coastal low won't be the only game in town as a 500mb cut-off drops down over the Great Lakes and could very well be the key in the eventual track of the coastal low. This energy dropping down the backside of the overall 500mb trough will help to lift the energy coming out of the Southeast up the coast in sort of a 'fujiwara effect'. Along with the 500mb cut-off over the Great Lakes will be a clipper type low which will link up with the coastal low through an inverted trough which will act to tap some of the Atlantic moisture and draw it westward, bringing lighter accumulating snow back across the New York Pennsylvania border.

Precipitation will break out north of the Mason-Dixon line around sunset with the leading edge rapidly working its way northeastward reaching southern New England by midnight. A brief period of rain could start things out along the coast as boundary layer temperatures should be well above freezing, but as low pressure gets organized off the coast and heavier precipiation moves in. Dynamic cooling of the column should allow for a rapid changeover to snow. This snow will fall heavy at times as a 850-700mb frontogenesis axis works up the coast, as well as strong lift in a nearly saturated snow growth zone. This could lead to snowfall rates exceeding an inch an hour for several hours during the overnight from metro northeast New Jersey northeastward into southern New England. Good banding will extend northwest on the main frontogenesis band as strong omega from 850-500mb will exist back into the Poconos and Catskills which could lead to enhanced snowfall rates here as well. Models typiclly are very poor at picking up on QPF on the NW fringes of these systems in such events. Further west lighter snows will fall in associated with the clipper system, which will link up to the developing coastal low with an inverted trough.

By Monday morning heavy snowfall will push into southern/central New England as best dynamics/deep moisture pull northeast of the NY/PA/NJ tri-state area. However, with inverted trough/deformation zone hanging back over the area lighter snows will continue. This deformation axis will extent westwards into central Pennsylvania/New York back into the digging upper trough. Monday afternoon sees the low pull into the Gulf of Maine bringing the heaviest snow to coastal/downeast Maine with lighter snows lingering over central New England. A swath of snowfall totals over 6 inches should extend from metro northeastern New Jersey up into coastal Maine, except for a few immediate coastal locations in Long Island and Cape Cod where mixing with rain will be an issue. Lake enhancement won't be of much concern throughout this event as delta T's are marginal, at best, and flow is unconducive.


Temperatures to begin the event along the coastal plain will be in the upper 30's to low 40's, hence the rainy start. Further inland temperatures will be in the low to mid 30's which will easily allow for temperatures to wet bulb to freezing or below once precipitation starts, resulting in snow. During the overnight temperatures will fall to the low 30's as the atmosphere is dynamically cooled along the coastal sections. Furhter inland temperatures will drop back into the upper 20's, giving a better 'fluff factor' to the snow that their neighbors to the southeast won't have. Temperatures climb back into the 30's on Monday.



Snowfall through Monday

-----------


Clouds and snow showers hang back through the region on Tuesday as the upper trough axis swings through. Temperatures will run close to or sligtly above seasonal norms for what is now the coldest part of the year, climatologically.

Gradual clearing takes place Tuesday night as ridging at the surface and aloft begin to build over the region. There could still be a few stray snow showers scattered about over the higher terrain and in and around the snow belts. Temperatures will drop into the teens over the interior with single digits over the higher terrain. Along the coastal plain lows will fall into the upper teens and 20's, which is right around normal for this time of year.

Transient high, initially, will move into the Northeast on Wednesday, bringing a fine day to most with partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies and temperatures running a few degrees above normal - the calm before the storm.

By Wednesday night high pressure will slide northward into New England as an area of low pressure begins to organize over the central Gulf of Mexico, moving into the Southeast. High clouds may begin to increase after midnight as moisture begins to stream up the East Coast. Temperatures will drop quickly after sundown as ideal radiational cooling conditions will exist for the first half of the night. With this being the case, overnight lows could drop slightly below normal.

-----------

Clouds continue to increase on Thursday as low pressure moving out of the Southeast turns the corner and heads up the East Coast. A deep sharp 500mb trough digging into the Ohio Valley will begin to tilt negative and phase with the southern stream disturbance as it reaches the Carolinas. By afternoon light snow will spread up into southern Pennsylvania and New Jersey, perhaps mixing with rain along the immediate coastline. This system will have tremendous amounts of moisture to work with, being of Gulf of Mexico origin. It will also tap into Atlantic moisture as it heads up the coast.

By Thursday night precipitation will overspread the region, falling heavy at times. At this juncture it is too early to depict any sort of rain/snow line with any certainty, but early call is a little northwest of the I-95 corridor. Inland areas will see rather substantial snowfall with some locales seeing a foot or more possible while coastal areas could easily see over an inch of rainfall. Winds will pick up out of the northeast as low pressure deepens rapidly in response to the 500mb trough approaching the coastline. This storm appears to be an inside runner, so a changeover to sleet/freezing rain and even rain can be expected over the eastern half of New England as the storm pulls northward.

The nor'easter rapidly pulls into Maine by Friday morning and off into Canada by afternoon with strong cold air advection in its wake across the Northeast as an arctic airmass blasts into the region. Snow will continue for much of the day over northern New England with areas to the south seeing precipitation taper during the morning hours. Widespread blowing and drifting of snow will take place over the region as gusty northwest winds follow behind the storm in the cold advection pattern. Lake-effect snows will kick into gear as colder air works over the Great Lakes. Temperatures will most likely fall during the day by several degrees with wind chills becoming a factor late in the day.


___________________________________________________________

Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar

___________________________________________________________


Current Northeast Snowcover

Northeast Snowcover


MODIS Rapid Response satellite photo of Northeast snow cover (12/06/2007)


___________________________________________________________

Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.

---------------------------

Great Lakes SST's 12/07/2007

Great Lakes SST's as of 01/02/2008.

-------

Fillipini's Pond conditions (Lake across street)

11/6: 42°F
11/9: 37°F
11/11: 33°F - 1st morning with grease ice on lake.
11/17: 33°F
11/22: 34°F
11/24: 32°F - patchy ice on lake this morning
11/25: 32°F - lake iced over completely, melting along the shores during the afternoon.
12/1: Patchy ice has been on the lake all week. Lake should freeeze over completely tonight.
12/3: Lake is frozen over and covered with snow. Thickness measurements starting soon.

___________________________________________________________


January Daily Weather Statistics

Date___________Hi/Lo____Precip___Sun___Snow____(Snowdepth)

January 1st - 36°F/18°F....0.26"....20%..3.4"...(10")
January 2nd - 28°F/5°F.....0.01"....75%..0.1"...(13")
January 3rd - 10°F/-5°F....Trace...100%..Trace..(13")
January 4th - 25°F/-3°F....0.00"....30%..0.0"...(13")
January 5th - 36°F/9°F.....0.08"....20%..0.1"...(12")
January 6th - 43°F/29°F....0.02"....0%...0.0"...(11")
January 7th - 56°F/36°F....0.00"....50%..0.0"...(9")
January 8th - 59°F/36°F....0.00"....35%..0.0"...(5")
January 9th - 54°F/35°F....0.34"....40%..0.0"...(2")
January 10th - 39°F/28°F....0.04"....80%..0.0"...(1")
January 11th - 43°F/32°F....0.31"....20%..0.0"...(1")
January 12th - 38°F/27°F....0.00"....20%..0.0"...(1")
January 13th - 36°F/23°F....0.23"....15%..2.7"...(1")


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Updated: 2:35 PM GMT on January 14, 2008

Permalink

One more warm storm before winter returns

By: sullivanweather, 9:47 PM GMT on January 10, 2008

Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings

------

Commentary

I have fallen victim to a pretty nasty flu virus that has kept me in bed for the previous couple of days, hence the lack of an update. I should have something out a little later. I have to drive my girlfriend over to her parents house in about half an hour so a complete update probably won't be here until later tonight. She's going down to Maryland with her father for an R/C competition, so the best of luck to the both of them!!


___________________________________________________________


Regional Forecast

A mild, moist storm system will work its way through the Northeast through the overnight and Friday with rain over the southern 2/3rds of the region. Wintry precipitation will be confined to the far north. Frontal boundary clears the region Friday with some record highs possible behind this front if any sun can break out. Cooler air begins to filter down from Canada this weekend with temperatures returning to within seasonable levels. An area of low pressure passes southeast of the region Sunday night, perhaps skirting coastal areas with some precipitation. Upper trough will dive into the Northeast for the beginning of the week with snow showers spreading over the region as well as indications of an inverted trough developing which could act to enhance said snowfall. A deep trough dives into the central/eastern US by mid to late week that could spawn a much more significant low pressure over the south. As this low reaches the eastern seaboard it should make the turn and come up the coast as a significant nor'easter. This system is still over a week out and much can change but with a deep trough carving out over the east this should increase the chances for a signifcant snowfall over the Northeast.

--------


Rain and thunderstorms are moving through the Northeast this afternoon, with wintry precipitation confined to northern Maine. Caribou has been reporting moderate to heavy snow with visibilities of 1/4 to 1/2 a mile. Snow should mix with and change to sleet and freezing rain by evening as warm air floods in aloft. Over the State of New Jersey several lines of thunderstorms have formed and are trying to organize into a single line of storms. These thunderstorms could produce some very heavy amounts of rain in a short period of time. With saturated grounds over the area from recent rains and snowmelt, localized flooding problems appear likely. Urban and poor drainage flooding are most likely, but some flashier creeks and streams can come out of their banks. Even larger rivers across the Northeast can reach bankfull as rainfall across the area has been in the half an inch to an inch range. As the cold front passes through the area some breaks of sun can be seen which could provide enough warming to push several locations close to record highs for the day. Over western and central Pennsylvania and New York the cold front has passed with mostly cloudy skies and scattered showers left in its wake. Southerly winds out ahead of the front with shift to the southwest after its passage. Some of the higher elevations of New England and N-S oriented valleys could see winds sustained of 20-25 mph with higher gusts. Temperatures will remain quite mild with highs along the coastal plain in the 50's, even approaching 60°F. Northern New England will remain in the 'cold' sector with highs in the upper 20's to mid 30's. The rest of the interior will remain in the 40's.


Colder air begins to filter into the Northeast tonight as cold front sweeps offshore. Precipitation over northen New England falling as a wintry mix should end by midnight as drier air advects into the region. With marginal temperatures for lake-effect precipitation any snow showers that come off the lakes will be light and not amount to much more than an inch. Skies will gradually clear out as the night progresses with temperatures falling slightly below freezing across the interior and remaining above freezing along the coastal plain. With snowcover all but gone from most of the region it will feel very November-like. Winds will shift to the west around 10-20mph across the north with lighter winds across the south.

------


Saturday should be a rather pleasent day over the Northeast with partly coudy to mostly clear skies as a weak area of high pressure builds into the region. Temperatures will remain above normal by some 10 degrees with highs over the interior making it into the mid to upper 30's except for the higher terrain of northern New York and New England where highs will struggle to crack the freezing mark. Along the coastal plain temperatures will rise into the 40's with some areas approaching 50°F. Winds will be light and variable.


Fair skies will continue into Saturday night with high pressure centered over southern Canada. Lows will drop towards seasonable levels with lows falling into the teens and 20's over the interior. Along the coastal plain lows will fall to near the freezing mark.


Clouds will begin to increase from the south on Sunday as an area of low pressure develops along coastal Carolina and moves northeast. After much grappling in the models over the previous week it now appears that this southern stream disturbance will remain unphased with a northern stream clipper system which will limit a widespread heavy snowfall for the Northeast. By afternoon, precipitation will break out over New Jersey and southeastern Pennsylvania from the southern stream system. At this time it appears as though boundry layer temperatures will be warm enough for mostly rain with perhaps some snowfall on the extreme northwestern fringes of the precipitation shield. Further west over western Pennsylvania and New York snow showers will break out in response to the clipper system diving down into the southern Great Lakes. Any accumulations here will be light, mainly an inch or less. Temperatures will rise into the upper 30's to near 40°F over the coastal plain. Across the interior temperatures will remain in the 20's and 30's.


Low pressure off the Jersey Shore will strengthen Sunday night. As better dynamics get introduced rain will change over to snow along the coastal sections of New Jersey and southeastern New York. Precipitation might begin as snow over southern New England as here boundry layer temperatures will have cooled from their daily max's. A period of moderate to heavy snow is possible within 50 miles of the coastline which could result in fairly significant accumulations of snow. This will be a close call for the immediate coastal sections but my feeling at this time is that as heights fall, and core of UVM moves overhead a rapid transition to snow should occur. Model QPF is around a half inch to an inch for the entire event. A snowfall forecast will be issued in the next blog as it is too early to say with any confidence how much snow will fall, but somewhere along the I-95 corridor will get hit pretty good, most likely interior southern New England. Further west, scattered light snow showers will fall with the clipper low centered over the Great Lakes. East-central New York north and east into central and northern New England high pressure will remain in control, holding precipitation at bay.

------

Low pressure wraps up off the Northeast coast Monday with snow from the coastal system spreading into coastal Maine. Elsewhere over the region scattered snow showers from the clipper low/upper trough will persist for much of the day. Accumulations should be limited to coastal Maine and the higher terrain across the interior. High's will return to near normal levels for mid-January.

Snow showers will continue Monday night over the Northeast as clipper/upper trough moves over Pennsylvania. Temperatures will fall into the teens and 20's across the interior. Upper 20's to near 30°F should do along the coastal plain.


As clipper/upper trough pulls offshore on Tuesday inverted trough development will have to be watched which could act to bring light accumulating snowfall over the region. High's will continue to average near normal.

-------


High pressure build into the Northeast Wednesday with mainly fair skies and seasonable temperatures.

The next system of concern is another southern stream disturbance that will attempt to turn to corner over the Southeast on Wednesday night and move up the coast on Thursday and Thursday night. This system has better potential than the Sunday night/Monday storm to spread significant snowfall over a larger area of the Northeast.

A deep trough will carve itself out over the eastern US by Friday as a fairly cold airmass will build down from Canada and last into next weekend. Some models runs have hinted at another storm following the Thursday system for the weekend, but being 8-9 days out will leave that potential alone for now.

Cold air will become established over the North American continent following next weekend.




___________________________________________________________

Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar

___________________________________________________________


Current Northeast Snowcover

Northeast Snowcover


MODIS Rapid Response satellite photo of Northeast snow cover (12/06/2007)


___________________________________________________________

Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.

---------------------------

Great Lakes SST's 12/07/2007

Great Lakes SST's as of 01/02/2008.

-------

Fillipini's Pond conditions (Lake across street)

11/6: 42°F
11/9: 37°F
11/11: 33°F - 1st morning with grease ice on lake.
11/17: 33°F
11/22: 34°F
11/24: 32°F - patchy ice on lake this morning
11/25: 32°F - lake iced over completely, melting along the shores during the afternoon.
12/1: Patchy ice has been on the lake all week. Lake should freeeze over completely tonight.
12/3: Lake is frozen over and covered with snow. Thickness measurements starting soon.

___________________________________________________________


January Daily Weather Statistics

Date___________Hi/Lo____Precip___Sun___Snow____(Snowdepth)

January 1st - 36°F/18°F....0.26"....20%..3.4"...(10")
January 2nd - 28°F/5°F.....0.01"....75%..0.1"...(13")
January 3rd - 10°F/-5°F....Trace...100%..Trace..(13")
January 4th - 25°F/-3°F....0.00"....30%..0.0"...(13")
January 5th - 36°F/9°F.....0.08"....20%..0.1"...(12")
January 6th - 43°F/29°F....0.02"....0%...0.0"...(11")
January 7th - 56°F/36°F....0.00"....50%..0.0"...(9")
January 8th - 59°F/36°F....0.00"....35%..0.0"...(5")
January 9th - 54°F/35°F....0.34"....40%..0.0"...(2")


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Updated: 8:16 PM GMT on January 11, 2008

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Record warmth Tuesday;flooding concerns mid to late week

By: sullivanweather, 11:17 AM GMT on January 08, 2008

Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings

------

Commentary

After a few days of relative calm a very active pattern is in store with record warmth, possible flooding, and a possible winter storm by early next week.

___________________________________________________________


Regional Forecast

Unseasonably warm temperatures Tuesday with record highs likely over many locations across the Northeast, especially over the southern half of the region. Low pressure moves north of the region Wednesday with windy conditions behind trailing cold front. High pressure briefly builds in on Wednesday night and Thursday morning with another trough moving into the region for Thursday night and Friday. Seasonable air moves back into the Northeast this weekend as a coastal storm gathers strength over the Southeast which could spread wintry weather into the Northeast for the beginning of next week.

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**Record warmth is expected today for a good portion of the Northeast with some all-time January high temperature records under threat as well**


Records



Lots of low clouds and fog early this moring over the Northeast with some scattered showers prevailing over northern New York and northern Maine. These will move north with the baroclinic zone into Canada late this morning with most of the Northeast placed squarely in the warm sector by this afternoon. 850mb temperatures rise from +12°C to +6°C south to north with sunshine breaking out for all but the far northern fringes of the Northeast. At the surface temperatures will skyrocket into the 60's over Pennsylvania, New Jersey, most of New York, southern and central New England. Over northern New York and northern New England temperatures will rise into the 50's with some upper 40's over the highest elevations. I would not be surprised to see some 70°F readings scattered throughout the southern portions of the region given downstream high temperatures yesterday under this unseasonably warm and moist airmass. There could still be some light rain showers scattered over the far north but the main story today will be the unseasonable warmth. Winds will increase to 10 to 20 mph out of the south as the day progresses.


Negatively tilted trough approaches from the west Tuesday night as surface low pressure lifts northeastwards into Ontario. Cold front moves into western sections after midnight with rain spreading into most of Pennsylvania and western and central New York State. Rainfall amounts overnight will range from a quarter to a half an inch. There's also a chance for some thunderstorms as cape values rise to a couple of hundred joules/kg. Some damaging wind gusts can be associated with these storms as a very strong 60-70kt low level jet will punch through the region out ahead of the front. Elsewhere over the Northeast some low clouds and fog will settle back over the area. Any remaining snowpack up north will aid in fog development and along coastal areas warm southerly flow moving over cooler ocean waters (sounds very much like spring) will bring low clouds and fog over the coastal plain. Temperatures will remain some 20-30 degrees above normal. 'Lows' will range from the low to mid 40's over the higher terrain up north with mainly 50's expected most everywhere else. With cold front making it into the western sections temperatures here may fall back into the 40's but will not do so until very late in the overnight.


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Cold front continues its push through the Northeast on Wednesday with band of precipitation out ahead of the front weakening as dynamics lifts northwards into Canada. Despite only a quarter to half inch of precipitation expected with the frontal passage, sharp within bank rises on area rivers will be expected as saturated ground and snowmelt will allow for lots of run-off to make its way into the hydrologic system. Temperatures will begin the day very mild over the eastern half of the area before the frontal passage. Expect temperatures to remain in the 50's and low 60's from southeastern New York into southern and central New England. A little further north over northern New England temperatures will begin the day in the mid to upper 40's. By afternoon most of the region will see temperatures fall as unseasonably warm airmass is swept out of the region, despite Pacific origin of the airmass behind the front. Winds will be rather strong as ~980mb low pressure wraps up southeast of Hudson Bay and pressures rise rapidly as high pressure builds into the region. This combined with cold air advection will make for wind gusts of 40-50mph over northern and western New York with 25-35 mph gusts elsewhere over the Northeast.

Windy conditions continue Wednesday evening as cooler air moves into the region with most inland locations falling below freezing by midnight. Leftover synoptic moisture combined with slight lake enhancement with make for scattered snow showers down wind of the lakes and in upslope areas of the Adirondacks/Green and Whites/northern Maine. Winds will diminish after midnight over the southern half of the region as high pressure moves into the area. However, over central and northern New England winds will stay gusty. Away from the lakes/upslope areas skies will become partly cloudy to mostly clear making for a pleasent evening and overnight. Temperatures will range from the 20's over the northern half of the interior with 30's across the southern half of the interior and along the coastal plain except for some low 40's down by the Jersey Shore.


Weak transient high moves offshore Thursday morning providing a fair start to the day with temperatures continuing to average above normal. By afternoon clouds will begin to move back into the region as a developing low pressure over the Midwest taps Gulf of Mexico moisture and spreads this northwards towards the region. Scattered showers could push into southern Pennsylvania and New Jersey by mid-afternoon. Highs will range from the 40's across the south with perhaps a spot 50°F or two over southern New Jersey. Further north highs will make it to the upper 30's and low 40's with temperatures hovering neaar freezing over the higher terrain of northern New York and New England.

------


Models begin to diverge in their solutions Thursday night with the NAM much colder than the GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/GGEM/SREF solutions. See no reason to side with the NAM which shows a fairly significant snowfall breaking over over inland sections with 850mb temperatures down to 0°C as far south as northeastern Pennsylvania. Will discount that more snowy solution and go with the warmer model suite of the GFS/Euro/Canadian models. Rain will move up along the coastal plain with a mix of sleet and rain with some pockets of freezing rain over the Catskills/Poconos and interior southern New England. This rain could fall heavy at times, especially along coastal area. Flooding will start to become a concern during this timeframe as already high river levels will be exacerbated by this latest rainfall. North of a Syracuse-Glens Falls-Concord line temperatures aloft could be cold enough to support snow, but precipitation does not move in until well after midnight. Precipitation over western New York could change from rain to snow as dynamic cooling of the column after midnight ensues. Far northern New York and New England will remain precipitation-free with increasing cloudiness as the night progresses. Overnight lows will drop into the low 40's along the coastal plain with 30's across much of the interior and 20's across the far north/higher terrain.


Decent slug of moisture moves through New England on Friday morning with flooding concerns spreading into this section of the Northeast. Moderate to heavy rain will fall during the morning hours as low pressure moves into northern New York. Rivers most susceptable to seeing levels rise to action stage/minor flood stage will be the following: Upper Susquehanna, Upper Deleware, Housatonic, Passaic and the Connecticut Rivers. Other smaller tributaries and flashier creeks and streams could come out of their banks as well. An area of moderate snow will develop on the backside of this low pressure as it moves across northern New York and New England. Dry slot quickly moves into the Northeast, ending most of the precipitation by early afternoon. Colder air will filter into the Northeast behind this low with the potential for some lake-effect snow showers by late afternoon. Temperatures will continue to average 5-10 degrees above normal.

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High pressure builds into the Northeast this weekend with most lake-effect ending by afternoon as drier air advects into the region. Temperatures will return to seasonable levels with polar airmass settling overhead.

Long range models are coming into better agreement regarding the potential for a nor'easter as we head into the beginning of next week. Low pressure developing along the Gulf coast will move into the Carolinas and offshore, hugging the coast spreading significant snowfall to inland sections with a mix along the coast. The GFS has been going back and forth with this system from run to run with solutions ranging from a total miss to a major snowstorm to mainly a rainmaker. The latest ECMWF model run shows a 995mb low just east of Cape Cod Monday evening which would provide most of the Northeast with a significant snowfall while the latest GFS shows a 995mb low southeast of Long Island providing a significant snowfall for areas closer to the coast.

At this point in time it is too early to say whether or not these current solutions will hold but the odds are there for a significant low pressure system to affect at least a portion of the Northeast early next week.


___________________________________________________________

Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar

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Current Northeast Snowcover

Northeast Snowcover


MODIS Rapid Response satellite photo of Northeast snow cover (12/06/2007)


___________________________________________________________

Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.

---------------------------

Great Lakes SST's 12/07/2007

Great Lakes SST's as of 01/02/2008.

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Fillipini's Pond conditions (Lake across street)

11/6: 42°F
11/9: 37°F
11/11: 33°F - 1st morning with grease ice on lake.
11/17: 33°F
11/22: 34°F
11/24: 32°F - patchy ice on lake this morning
11/25: 32°F - lake iced over completely, melting along the shores during the afternoon.
12/1: Patchy ice has been on the lake all week. Lake should freeeze over completely tonight.
12/3: Lake is frozen over and covered with snow. Thickness measurements starting soon.

___________________________________________________________


January Daily Weather Statistics

Date___________Hi/Lo____Precip___Sun___Snow____(Snowdepth)

January 1st - 36°F/18°F....0.26"....20%..3.4"...(10")
January 2nd - 28°F/5°F.....0.01"....75%..0.1"...(13")
January 3rd - 10°F/-5°F....Trace...100%..Trace..(13")
January 4th - 25°F/-3°F....0.00"....30%..0.0"...(13")
January 5th - 36°F/9°F.....0.08"....20%..0.1"...(12")
January 6th - 43°F/29°F....0.02"....0%...0.0"...(11")
January 7th - 56°F/36°F....0.00"....50%..0.0"...(9")


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Updated: 2:31 AM GMT on January 09, 2008

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January Thaw

By: sullivanweather, 11:30 PM GMT on January 05, 2008


Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings

------

Only a brief update today. A fairly benign pattern over the next several days leaves little to discuss and the next active period is a bit too far in the future to discuss in detail.

___________________________________________________________


Regional Forecast

A weak impulse will move through the Northeast this weekend bringing light snow to the north, light rain to the south and a mix in between. By Monday and Tuesday heights will build with the bulk of the precipitation moving north into nortern New England and Canada. The Pacific airmass over the region will make for much above normal temperatures. A negatively tilting trough will cut through the Northeast Tuesday night and Wednesday bringing mainly rain. High pressure briefly builds in on Thursday with another trough on Friday bringing mainly rain south with frozen precipitation likely north. High pressure builds in for next weekend with the potential for a colder and snowier pattern thereafter.

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Warm advection pattern over the Northeast will continue to pump milder air and moisture into the region over the next 48 hours. For the near-term some colder air over the region will allow for a mixture of sleet and freezing rain over the interior with light snow acorss the far north. Along the coastal plain and across southern and western Pennsylvania boundary layer temperatures will warm enough for precipitation to fall in liquid form.

By Sunday afternoon temperatures should warm sufficiently across most of the area except for higher terrain areas of northern New York and New England to eliminate the potential for freezing/frozen precipitation. Temperatures will climb to 5-10 degrees above seasonal averages.

------

Most of the precipitation will lift northwards on Monday as an upper ridge builds over the East Coast. This pattern will continue into Tuesday with temperatures climbing some 15-20 degrees above normal. However, cloud cover will put a cap on how warm it would otherwise get.

The next system of concern will approach from the southwest on Tuesday night and Wednesday as a negatively tilting trough will pull through the Northeast, spreading rain into the region. Wednesday could be the 3rd straight day of average temperatures of 42 degrees or higher across the southern half of the region which will act to break up ice on area streams and rivers, creating the potential for ice jams. Additional rainfall from the system moving through the region will only exacerbate these flooding concerns.

Cold frontal passage Wednesday night will drop temperatures below freezing across most of the Northeast, ending the flooding concerns, however, temperatures will remain above normal as air behind front is of Pacific origin and no arctic air will get involved.

High pressure moves into the Northeast on Thursday with mostly clear skies and temperatures remaining 5 to 10 degrees above normal.



___________________________________________________________

Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar

___________________________________________________________


Current Northeast Snowcover

Northeast Snowcover


MODIS Rapid Response satellite photo of Northeast snow cover (12/06/2007)


___________________________________________________________

Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.

---------------------------

Great Lakes SST's 12/07/2007

Great Lakes SST's as of 01/02/2008.

-------

Fillipini's Pond conditions (Lake across street)

11/6: 42°F
11/9: 37°F
11/11: 33°F - 1st morning with grease ice on lake.
11/17: 33°F
11/22: 34°F
11/24: 32°F - patchy ice on lake this morning
11/25: 32°F - lake iced over completely, melting along the shores during the afternoon.
12/1: Patchy ice has been on the lake all week. Lake should freeeze over completely tonight.
12/3: Lake is frozen over and covered with snow. Thickness measurements starting soon.

___________________________________________________________


January Daily Weather Statistics

Date___________Hi/Lo____Precip___Sun___Snow____(Snowdepth)

January 1st - 36°F/18°F....0.26"....20%..3.4"...(10")
January 2nd - 28°F/5°F.....0.01"....75%..0.1"...(13")
January 3rd - 10°F/-5°F....Trace...100%..Trace..(13")
January 4th - 25°F/-3°F....0.00"....30%..0.0"...(13")
January 5th - 36°F/9°F.....0.08"....20%..0.1"...(12")


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Updated: 6:35 AM GMT on January 06, 2008

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December in review

By: sullivanweather, 7:18 PM GMT on January 02, 2008

This blog is under construction...


December Daily Weather Statistics

Date___________Hi/Lo____Precip___Sun___Snow____(Snowdepth)

December 1st - 28°F/11°F....Trace....80%..Trace..(0")
December 2nd - 30°F/12°F....0.32"....0%...3.8"...(3")
December 3rd - 36°F/22°F....0.43"....10%..1.8"...(3")
December 4th - 22°F/18°F....0.03"....10%..0.6"...(4")
December 5th - 21°F/14°F....0.02"....0%...0.3"...(4")
December 6th - 28°F/9°F.....0.00"....95%..0.0"...(3")
December 7th - 25°F/9°F.....0.06"....10%..0.9"...(4")
December 8th - 36°F/24°F....0.00"....25%..0.0"...(3")
December 9th - 30°F/23°F....0.24"....0%...0.0"...(3")
December 10th - 34°F/27°F....0.11"....0%..0.0"...(3")
December 11th - 32°F/19°F....0.17"....35%..0.0"...(2")
December 12th - 41°F/27°F....0.14"....50%..Trace..(2")
December 13th - 27°F/21°F....0.84"....0%...9.6"..(2")
December 14th - 35°F/21°F....0.00"....15%..0.0"..(10")
December 15th - 27°F/11°F....0.08"....30%..0.1"..(8")
December 16th - 28°F/11°F....0.94"....0%...4.4"...(10")
December 17th - 23°F/15°F....0.03"....40%..0.4"...(11")
December 18th - 32°F/13°F....0.00"....90%..0.0"...(10")
December 19th - 33°F/19°F....0.11"....20%..1.3"...(11")
December 20th - 32°F/26°F....Trace....0%...Trace..(11")
December 21st - 30°F/27°F....0.01"....0%...0.1"...(11")
December 22nd - 32°F/27°F....Trace....0%...Trace..(11")
December 23rd - 52°F/32°F....0.63"....0%...0.0"...(10")
December 24th - 36°F/28°F....0.00"....10%..0.0"...(5")
December 25th - 32°F/30°F....0.00"....0%...0.0"...(5")
December 26th - 35°F/18°F....0.00"....10%..0.0"...(5")
December 27th - 33°F/30°F....0.05"....0%...0.3"...(4")
December 28th - 38°F/31°F....0.18"....40%..0.0"...(4")
December 29th - 43°F/28°F....0.23"....70%..0.0"...(3")
December 30th - 33°F/23°F....0.20"....30%..2.5"...(3")
December 31st - 34°F/19°F....0.48"....30%..5.7"...(11")

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Temperatures

December daily highs/lows



December normal mean high - 34.6°F
December 2007 mean high - 30.2°F
December 2007 high temp departure - 4.4°F below normal


December normal mean low - 20.6°F
December 2007 mean low - 20.8°F
December 2007 low temp departure - 0.2°F above normal


December normal mean - 27.6°F
December 2007 mean - 25.5°F
December 2007 mean departure - 2.1°F below normal


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Precipitation

December 2007 precipitation


December 2007 precipitation: 5.30"

Days with at least a trace of precipitation: 24
Days of measureable precipitation: 21

---------

Snowfall

December 2007 snowfall: 31.8"

Days with at least a trace of snowfall: 18
Days with measureable snowfall: 14


___________________________________________________________



Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings

___________________________________________________________


Regional Forecast

A fairly benign pattern will develop over the Northeast for the next week as arctic high pressure moves offshore and takes on characteristics of a Bermuda type high, bringing a January thaw to the region. Temperatures begin the climb back towards normal on Friday, going above normal by this weekend and much above normal early next week. A weak short wave could bring some light precipitation to the region this weekend. A stronger trough will approach by Tuesday night and Wednesday with rain throughout as temperatures will be sufficiently warm. Airmass behind this trough will be of Pacific origin with temperatures remaining above normal after it's passage.

------------

A very cold afternoon this Thursday with mostly clear skies and temperatures running 10 to 20 degrees below normal as arctic high pressure crests over the region.

Arctic high pressure begins to slide offshore the Southeast Coast Thursday night with warm advection commencing. A stray snow shower over the higher terrain of northern New York and New England cannot be ruled out due to a trough that will bring some high and mid level clouds to the region after midnight, putting a cap on the temperature plunge. However, before these clouds move in ideal radiational cooling conditions will be present allowing for temperatures to quickly drop after sunset. A good portion of east-central/northern New York into New England will see temperatures drop below zero once again before slowly rising aftern midnight. Elsewhere over the interior temperatures will drop into the single digits and lower teens. Along the coastal plain temperatures will fall into the upper teens to near 20°F.

-------

A weak trough skirting by to the north on Friday will spread high and mid level cloudiness over the region with the chance for a few snow showers over the higher elevations of northern New York and New England. However, the warm advection pattern will be in full gear with reutrn flow of southwesterly winds around the backside of high pressure. Mild Pacific air will advect into the region with 850mb temperatures warming to 0°C by days end up to the Mason-Dixon line and up to -10°C across northern New England. High's will warm above freezing across the southern third of the region with 20's and teens to the north.


A partly cloudy to mostly clear sky will allow for temperatures to drop rather quickly once again Friday night before holding steady after midnight as clouds increase once again. Areas that saw temperatures rising above freezing during the day should quickly drop below freezing during the evening could make for patchy areas of black ice. Lows will fall into the teens and 20's across the interior with single digits still possible over northern New England. Along the coastal plain temperatures will drop into the upper 20's and low 30's.

--------



___________________________________________________________

Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar

___________________________________________________________


Current Northeast Snowcover

Northeast Snowcover


MODIS Rapid Response satellite photo of Northeast snow cover (12/06/2007)


___________________________________________________________

Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.

---------------------------

Great Lakes SST's 12/07/2007

Great Lakes SST's as of 01/02/2008.

-------

Fillipini's Pond conditions (Lake across street)

11/6: 42°F
11/9: 37°F
11/11: 33°F - 1st morning with grease ice on lake.
11/17: 33°F
11/22: 34°F
11/24: 32°F - patchy ice on lake this morning
11/25: 32°F - lake iced over completely, melting along the shores during the afternoon.
12/1: Patchy ice has been on the lake all week. Lake should freeeze over completely tonight.
12/3: Lake is frozen over and covered with snow. Thickness measurements starting soon.

___________________________________________________________


January Daily Weather Statistics

Date___________Hi/Lo____Precip___Sun___Snow____(Snowdepth)

January 1st - 36°F/18°F....0.26"....20%..3.4"...(10")
January 2nd - 28°F/5°F.....0.01"....75%..0.1"...(13")
January 3rd - 10°F/-5°F....Trace...100%..Trace..(13")
January 4th - 25°F/-3°F....0.00"....30%..0.00"..(13")


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Updated: 6:08 PM GMT on January 05, 2008

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About sullivanweather

Thomas is an avid weather enthusiast, landscaper and organic gardener. This blog is dedicated to Northeast and tropical weather forecasting. Enjoy!

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