Northeast Weather Blog

Potent clipper/arctic blast to greet the New Year

By: sullivanweather, 11:30 AM GMT on December 31, 2007

Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings

___________________________________________________________


Regional Forecast


One snowstorm is on the way out this morning dropping moderate to heavy snow over New England with lighter snows extending back into eastern New York. This will exit the region this afternoon, bringing a brief break to the region before another potentially significant snow event moving into the Northeast for the first day of the New Year followed by an arctic outbreak lasting until Thursday. Temperatures will moderate by Friday into the weekend as the arctic high moves offshore and the Northeast comes under a southwesterly return flow. Chances for precipitation increase by the weekend as a weakening trough moves towards the area.

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The first storm system is beginning to consolidate over the Gulf of Maine this morning with an impressive deformation band of snow setting up from the coastal areas of New Hampshire and Maine to about 50 to 75 miles inland. Looking at obs from this morning Concord, NH came in with .45" liquid equivilent in two hours, which is some 2-3" per hour snowfall rates. This band will gradually weaken during the morning hours and shift northeastwards as the low rapidly pulls away from the region leaving scattered snow showers in its wake this afternoon over northern New England in the trowal. Further north and west weak isentropic ascent in the trowal is creating enough lift to squeeze out some light snow over western New England and northeastern New York State. This steady light snow/snow showers will end by mid-morning with clearing skies during the afternoon. Some snow showers could move off the lakes as well as some colder air filters into the region, but three should only be a minimal response. Elsewhere over the Northeast it will be partly cloudy to mostly sunny with breezy conditions, but otherwise a pleasent day. Downsloping winds along the coastal plain should push temperatures here into the 40's from southern New England south with a spot 50°F reading or two over southern New Jersey possible. Across the interior 30's will do with 20's once one heads into northern New York and New England where deeper cold air lies and clouds will be tough to move out.


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Mostly clear skies will start the night for most, but clouds will increase rapidly over western sections after midnight as the potent clipper low moves towards the area. Even at this late hour there are still model descrepansies in regard to the eventualy track of the primary low/500mb vortmax that will have big implications on how this event turns out here in the Northeast. For the overnight period I'll just keep it simple since the main show won't start until after the first sunrise of the New Year and call for light to occasionally moderate snow to break out over western and central New York and Pennsylvania after midnight. Precipitation shouldn't make it any further east than a Syracuse-Elmira-State College line during the overnight. East of that line to the New York-New England border clouds will increase after midnight while even further east much of the night will be spent under mostly clear skies. Temperatures will fall into the teens and 20's over the interior of the Northeast with perhaps some single digits over the higher terrain up north. Closer to the coast and out across southwestern Pennsylvania temperatures will fall to near freezing. Light and variable winds will begin to increase out of the south ahead of the clipper.



The rather intense clipper system will move into western Pennsylvania Tuesday morning with a secondary low forming off the Delmarva. This new low pressure will feed Atlantic moisture back into a dynamically impressive upper trough which will attempt to close off lows at both the 500mb and 700mb layer. Moderate to heavy snow will break out over inland areas while closer to the coast temperatures might stay warm enough for rain. Exactly where the heaviest band of snow sets up is still in question as the NAM/HIRES WRF agree on a more southward track with the heaviest snow falling from east-central New York into central New England. The GFS/ECMWF/RGEM/SREF models favor a track further north with the highest amounts falling from the Adirondacks into the Northeast Kingdom. A compromise solution is not workable here as the differences in the models are due to their handling of the behaviour of the primary/secondary lows. The NAM/WRF transfer the energy to the secondary much quicker, which is then able to tap moisture sooner. The global models supported by the SREF favor the primary low to hang on longer, with a later transfer of energy to the secondary, keeping the heaviest snow confined to the northern regions.

For now will side with the latter scenario put forth by the GFS/ECMWF/GGEM as it is climatologically favored and better fits the pattern of the primary low hanging tough as we've seen thus far this winter. Even if this further north scenario verifys, significant accumulations of snow are possible in areas further to the south, especially in southeast facing slopes of the Catskills and Berkshires as orogpaphics combined with impressive low level convergence could support totals exceeding 10" in favored locales.


Snow amounts across the Adirondacks/Green and Whites/Presidential range should easily approach one foot given the high snow:liquid ratios expected with this storm. Slightly less, but still heafty amounts of up to 10 inches can be seen in the foothills surrounding these areas, including the Catskills/Berkshires/Taconics and along the south shore of Lake Ontario where there will be some lake enhancement. A general 2-5 inches will fall along the NY/PA border region with gradually increasing amounts as one heads east as there will be greater transport of moisture into these areas. Across southern Pennsylvania lighter amounts of snow will fall with only an inch or two expected which could mix in with rain. High elevations in the Allegheny Front and the Laurel highlands could receive up to 6 inches given favorable upslope flow. Amounts over southeastern New York and southern New England should range from 2 to 6 inches south to north.

High's will be in the 20's over the interior with teens possible over the higher elevations of northern New York and New England with 30's along the coastal areas.


The coastal low will take over by Tuesday night with a deformation band extending back into the upper trough carved out over the Northeast. Additional light to moderate accumulations of snow will fall over the interior with lesser amounts to the southwest. As arctic air begins to invade the region the lake-effect machine will kick into full gear. Northwest flow will promote the development of multi-bands with the greatest amounts falling over central New York and down the spine of the Appalachians. Scattered snow showers and flurries will prevail over the rest of the Northeast under mostly cloudy skies. The potential also exists for a few heavier snow squalls as the arctic front pushes through the region. Temperatures will fall back into the teens and 20's from north to south.


Snowfall map Jan 1-2nd

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With much emphasis put on the short term forecast the longer term forecast will be brief.


Snow showers linger over the Northeast on Wednesday with a more widespread coverage towards the lakes as trough axis swings through the region. Several more inches of snow may accumulate in the favored lake-effect regions on a northwesterly flow. Temperatures will average 5 to 10 degrees below normal.

More of the same Wednesday night, but the lake-effect will taper some as high pressure begins to nose its way into the Northeast. Partly cloudy to mostly cleae skies for most with a light northwesterly to northerly breeze and temperatures running 5 to 10 degrees below normal.

High pressure moves into the region on Thursday with the lake-effect all but ending and mostly clear skies throughout the region. Temperatures will continue to run around 10 degrees below normal.

Mostly clear skies and light winds with fresh deep snowcover will make for ideal radiational cooling conditions Thursday night as many locations in the Northeast could experience their coldest night thus far this year. Temperatures will run some 10-15 degrees below normal.

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A moderating trend will begin on Friday lasting into the weekend that will see temperatures return to normal levels by Saturday and perhaps exceeding them by Sunday. Moisture will move back into the region by Saturday night and Sunday as a weakeneing trough of low pressure moves into the area. The best chances for snow showers will be across the far north with a rain or a light mix south.


Looking ahead to next week there could be a nice January thaw as temperatures may climb to 10 degrees above normal for early January. Will have to keep an eye on the northern branch as this jet has had some punch this winter and could swing a backdoor front into the Northeast that would cut down how much warmth makes it into the area. This mild spell should last a good 4 to 6 days before winter returns by the middle of the month.



___________________________________________________________

Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar

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Current Northeast Snowcover

Northeast Snowcover


MODIS Rapid Response satellite photo of Northeast snow cover (12/06/2007)


___________________________________________________________

Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.

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Great Lakes SST's 12/07/2007

Great Lakes SST's as of 12/07/2007.

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Fillipini's Pond conditions (Lake across street)

11/6: 42°F
11/9: 37°F
11/11: 33°F - 1st morning with grease ice on lake.
11/17: 33°F
11/22: 34°F
11/24: 32°F - patchy ice on lake this morning
11/25: 32°F - lake iced over completely, melting along the shores during the afternoon.
12/1: Patchy ice has been on the lake all week. Lake should freeeze over completely tonight.
12/3: Lake is frozen over and covered with snow. Thickness measurements starting soon.

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December Daily Weather Statistics

Date___________Hi/Lo____Precip___Sun___Snow____(Snowdepth)

December 1st - 28°F/11°F....Trace....80%..Trace..(0")
December 2nd - 30°F/12°F....0.32"....0%...3.8"...(3")
December 3rd - 36°F/22°F....0.43"....10%..1.8"...(3")
December 4th - 22°F/18°F....0.03"....10%..0.6"...(4")
December 5th - 21°F/14°F....0.02"....0%...0.3"...(4")
December 6th - 28°F/9°F.....0.00"....95%..0.0"...(3")
December 7th - 25°F/9°F.....0.06"....10%..0.9"...(4")
December 8th - 36°F/24°F....0.00"....25%..0.0"...(3")
December 9th - 30°F/23°F....0.24"....0%...0.0"...(3")
December 10th - 34°F/27°F....0.11"....0%..0.0"...(3")
December 11th - 32°F/19°F....0.17"....35%..0.0"...(2")
December 12th - 41°F/27°F....0.14"....50%..Trace..(2")
December 13th - 27°F/21°F....0.84"....0%...9.6"..(2")
December 14th - 35°F/21°F....0.00"....15%..0.0"..(10")
December 15th - 27°F/11°F....0.08"....30%..0.1"..(8")
December 16th - 28°F/11°F....0.94"....0%...4.4"...(10")
December 17th - 23°F/15°F....0.03"....40%..0.4"...(11")
December 18th - 32°F/13°F....0.00"....90%..0.0"...(10")
December 19th - 33°F/19°F....0.11"....20%..1.3"...(11")
December 20th - 32°F/26°F....Trace....0%...Trace..(11")
December 21st - 30°F/27°F....0.01"....0%...0.1"...(11")
December 22nd - 32°F/27°F....Trace....0%...Trace..(11")
December 23rd - 52°F/32°F....0.63"....0%...0.0"...(10")
December 24th - 36°F/28°F....0.00"....10%..0.0"...(5")
December 25th - 32°F/30°F....0.00"....0%...0.0"...(5")
December 26th - 35°F/18°F....0.00"....10%..0.0"...(5")
December 27th - 33°F/30°F....0.05"....0%...0.3"...(4")
December 28th - 38°F/31°F....0.18"....40%..0.0"...(4")
December 29th - 43°F/28°F....0.23"....70%..0.0"...(3")
December 30th - 33°F/23°F....0.20"....30%..2.5"...(3")
December 31st - 34°F/19°F....0.48"....30%..5.7"...(11")


January Daily Weather Statistics

January 1st - 36°F/18°F....0.26"....20%..3.4"...(10")


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Updated: 4:06 PM GMT on January 02, 2008

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Two storms/cold on the way

By: sullivanweather, 10:33 AM GMT on December 30, 2007

Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings

___________________________________________________________


Regional Forecast

Stormy weather in the short term as a coastal low and a potent clipper system will bring two rounds of wintry weather to the Northeast over the next 72-84 hours. Following in behind the clipper will be an intense, but brief arctic airmass that will drop temperatures around 10 degrees below normal Wednesday and Thursday with lake-effect snows. Temperatures moderate by Friday into the weekend as arctic high moves offshore and a return flow of mild air moves into the Northeast. The warm-up could be tempered by a backdoor front during the weekend, but the January thaw will continue into the following week.

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A sharpening 500mb trough over the Mid-Mississippi Valley region will help to spawn a surface low pressure in the Southeast where tremendous amounts of Gulf moisture is feeding northwards into a stalled frontal boundary. Convection firing over the Southeast is helping to amplify the downstream ridge which will help to steer this developing low up the coast, passing just inside the 40/70 benchmark Monday morning then off into the Canadian Maritimes by Monday afternoon . This storm will have impressive amounts of moisture but rapid movement will prevent extremely heavy amounts of snow from falling although some areas from the southern Catskills into the southern Berkshires northeastward to downeast Maine could see up to 10 inches of snow with some locales coming in close to a foot.

In the near term tranquil weather will prevail this Sunday morning with fair skies and light winds as high pressure will slowly move offshore. By this afternoon clouds will begin to increase in coverage as low pressure begins to organize over the Southeast and move northeastward. Light precipitation will break out by mid-afternoon over the extreme southern portions of the region, mainly in the form of rain over southern New Jersey and southeastern Pennsylvania with a rain/sleet mixture further west over central Pennsylvania. Temperatures will top out in the 40's along the coastal plain with 30's over the interior. The higher terrain of northern New York and New England will stay in the 20's.

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Surface low pressure moves offshore Tidewater as upper support pulls into the Ohio Valley Sunday evening. Precipitation will continue to spread northwards as the evening progresses, overspreading Pennsylvania, much of the State of New York and southern New England by midnight. A little ways north and west of I-95 will see mostly frozen precipitation while right along the I-95 corridor and points south and east will see mostly rain, with perhaps some sleet mixing in. Further north and west the story will be snow, which could fall heavy at times with rates exceeding an inch an hour as strong lift will intersect the snow growth region for several hours during the overnight from east-central Pennsylvania, northeastwards across northwestern New Jersey, interior southeast New York into interior southern/central New England. Up to 6 inches of snow could easily fall in these locations Sunday night. North and west of a Scranton-Binghamton-Albany line and along the NY/PA border snow amounts will taper as mainly a light to moderate snowfall in the trowal will affect these areas. But even here a solid 3-5 inches of snow can be expected. Head even further north and west towards western and far northern New York State amounts should stay under 2 inches. Snow:liquid ratios appear to be on the order of 12-15:1 inland of the coast by 50-75 miles with closer to 10-8:1 ratios closer to the coast, especially where sleet and/or rain mixes in.


The storm will be wrapping up over Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey and southern New England Monday morning but ongoing over central New England into Downeast Maine. Moderate to heavy snow will fall during the morning hours in these locations as the storm wraps up off the New England coast and pulls into Nova Scotia. Along the coast of Maine and inland up to 75 miles should see snowfall totals of 6 to 8 inches with lesser amounts to the north and west. Scattered snow showers over the higher terrain of New England and lake-effect snows will be left in the systems' wake Monday afternoon and evening. The southern half of the region will see clearing skies during the afternoon with a chilly northwesterly breeze. Temperatures will range from the teens north to the mid 30's along the southern coastal areas Sunday night and rise into the 20's north while holding in the 30's along the southern coastal plain on Monday, perhaps cracking 40°F along the south shores of New Jersey.


Snowfall amounts through Monday afternoon

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Only a brief break behind the departing coastal storm before another clipper type low moves into the region late Monday night into New Years Day. This low is looking very formidable as it contains a rather intense pocket of upper level energy. Model trends have been stronger and further south with this system which could mean big problems down the line for the Northeast.

Clouds and precipitation with the low pressure will begin to move into western sections late Monday evening just as we ring in the new year. This expending area of precipitation will spread eastward covering much of Pennsylvania and New York state by daybreak on New Year's Day. As mentioned above, model trends have been for a stronger, further south tracking system. Models did indicate the formation of a secondary low pressure along the coast in earlier runs, but this is now forecast to happen much sooner and closer to the Delmarva as opposed to off Cape Cod. This will allow this rather moisture-starved system to aquire Atlantic moisture and could make for some rather impressive snowfall over New England on New Year's Day. Much colder temperatures aloft combined with impressive dynamics/lift will make for much higher snow:liquid ratios, perhaps 20:1 acting on QPF's of 1/4 to 1/2 inch. The higher terrain from northern New York across to northern New England stand the best chances at seeing significant amounts of snow, but surrounding areas could get in on the act as well. As much colder air moves in behind this system the lake-effect machine will start up as well.

An arctic front will also be associated with the passage of this system, bringing much colder air into the Northeast. As storm bombs off the coast of Maine brisk northwesterly winds will increase, blowing and drifting the very light and fluffy snow. Temperatures will likely fall during the day on Tuesday after the frontal passage and continue falling into Tuesday night, dropping below normal.

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___________________________________________________________

Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar

___________________________________________________________


Current Northeast Snowcover

Northeast Snowcover


MODIS Rapid Response satellite photo of Northeast snow cover (12/06/2007)


___________________________________________________________

Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.

---------------------------

Great Lakes SST's 12/07/2007

Great Lakes SST's as of 12/07/2007.

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Fillipini's Pond conditions (Lake across street)

11/6: 42°F
11/9: 37°F
11/11: 33°F - 1st morning with grease ice on lake.
11/17: 33°F
11/22: 34°F
11/24: 32°F - patchy ice on lake this morning
11/25: 32°F - lake iced over completely, melting along the shores during the afternoon.
12/1: Patchy ice has been on the lake all week. Lake should freeeze over completely tonight.
12/3: Lake is frozen over and covered with snow. Thickness measurements starting soon.

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December Daily Weather Statistics

Date___________Hi/Lo____Precip___Sun___Snow____(Snowdepth)

December 1st - 28°F/11°F....Trace....80%..Trace..(0")
December 2nd - 30°F/12°F....0.32"....0%...3.8"...(3")
December 3rd - 36°F/22°F....0.43"....10%..1.8"...(3")
December 4th - 22°F/18°F....0.03"....10%..0.6"...(4")
December 5th - 21°F/14°F....0.02"....0%...0.3"...(4")
December 6th - 28°F/9°F.....0.00"....95%..0.0"...(3")
December 7th - 25°F/9°F.....0.06"....10%..0.9"...(4")
December 8th - 36°F/24°F....0.00"....25%..0.0"...(3")
December 9th - 30°F/23°F....0.24"....0%...0.0"...(3")
December 10th - 34°F/27°F....0.11"....0%..0.0"...(3")
December 11th - 32°F/19°F....0.17"....35%..0.0"...(2")
December 12th - 41°F/27°F....0.14"....50%..Trace..(2")
December 13th - 27°F/21°F....0.84"....0%...9.6"..(2")
December 14th - 35°F/21°F....0.00"....15%..0.0"..(10")
December 15th - 27°F/11°F....0.08"....30%..0.1"..(8")
December 16th - 28°F/11°F....0.94"....0%...4.4"...(10")
December 17th - 23°F/15°F....0.03"....40%..0.4"...(11")
December 18th - 32°F/13°F....0.00"....90%..0.0"...(10")
December 19th - 33°F/19°F....0.11"....20%..1.3"...(11")
December 20th - 32°F/26°F....Trace....0%...Trace..(11")
December 21st - 30°F/27°F....0.01"....0%...0.1"...(11")
December 22nd - 32°F/27°F....Trace....0%...Trace..(11")
December 23rd - 52°F/32°F....0.63"....0%...0.0"...(10")
December 24th - 36°F/28°F....0.00"....10%..0.0"...(5")
December 25th - 32°F/30°F....0.00"....0%...0.0"...(5")
December 26th - 35°F/18°F....0.00"....10%..0.0"...(5")
December 27th - 33°F/30°F....0.05"....0%...0.3"...(4")
December 28th - 38°F/31°F....0.18"....40%..0.0"...(4")
December 29th - 43°F/28°F....0.23"....70%..0.0"...(3")



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Updated: 1:18 PM GMT on December 30, 2007

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Possible snowstorm to round out 2007

By: sullivanweather, 9:22 AM GMT on December 29, 2007

Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings

___________________________________________________________


Regional Forecast

Trough moving through the Northeast this Saturday morning will bring rain and snow to New England. Another southern stream disturbance will move up the coast Sunday night and Monday bringing rain or a mix to the coast and snow inland with significant accumulations possible. A third clipper-like low will affect the region on the first two days of the new year, with possible coastal redevelopment enhancing snowfall over New England Wednesday. Following this clipper an intense but progressive arctic airmass will drop into the Eastern US. Temperatures will moderate by Friday ahead of another clipper system that could bring a reenforcing shot of seasonably cold air next weekend.

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Storm system that has been affecting the northeast over the previous 12 hours will continue to do for the next 6 to 8 hours as it pulls through New England. Most of the precipitation west of New England has tapered off to light showers/drizzle with freezing/frozen precipitation over the higher elevations of northern New York. However, light to moderate precipitation continues over New England where up to a half inch of rain could fall along coastal sections with 4 to as much as 6 inches of snow still expected for northern Maine, where heavy snow warnings are posted for this morning. This precipitation will exit the region withing a few hours of the noon hour with clearing skies to follow. With marginally cold air moving over the Great Lakes some lake-effect snow showers will ensue but these should amount to a few inches of accumulation in the snowbelts at most. Elsewhere it will be partly cloudy with breezy conditions as cold air advection follows in behind the departing area of low pressure. Temperatures will rise into the low to mid 40's along coastal locations from southern New England south including interior valleys over the southeastern half of the region and southwestern Pennsylvania. Highs may even approach 50°F over southern New Jersey where colder air won't move in until the late afternoon. Further north/west and over the higher elevations temperatures will remain in the 30's until early afternoon before slowly falling to round out the day.


High pressure begins to build into the Northesat tonight bringing clearing skies and diminishing winds. Radiational cooling conditions will not be perfect, but ideal. Especially for area of northern New York/New England where fresh/deep snowpack exists. Some lingering snow showers will continue to move off the lakes but these too should wane in intensity as the night progresses with nothing more than an inch or two of fluff. Overnight lows will fall into the single digits and teens over a good portion of the interior with 20's along the coastal plain. Along the immediate coast from southern New England south temperatures will hold in the low 30's.



High pressure will remain in control of the sensible weather over the Northeast during the first half of Sunday. Lake-effect snow showers will come to an end during the morning hours with much of the Northeast experiencing mostly clear skies. By afternoon the high pressure will retreat to northern New England with high clouds increasing from the south. A pocket of mid-level energy moving into the lower Mississippi Valley region will help to spawn a surface low pressure that will begin to organize over the Southeast. This low will ride an amplifying jet stream into the Piedmont by late-afternoon with its eyes set on the Northeast. By evening some precipitation could begin to break out over the extreme southern portions of the region in the form of light rain along the coastal plain with light sleet and/or snow inland. Before all this mess gets here one more nice day will be squeezed out with temperatures running a bit above normal for late-December. Expect highs to climb into the 40's along the coastal plain with 30's over much of the interior and 20's over the higher terrain across the north. Winds will start out light out of the northwest then become light and variable over the north, while over southern regions light and variable winds will shift towards the east by afternoon but remain light.

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There's still differences in the models at this time so I'll not delve too deeply into details and try to present a general description and save the hard stuff for Sunday morning's blog.


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Sunday night-Monday


Afforementioned low pressure moves off Tidewater Sunday evening to a position just SE of the 40/70 benchmark by daybreak then out to sea during the day on Monday. Precipitation will spread northwards as the night progresses reaching into Maine during the morning hours on Monday. The transition zone will likely set up right along the I-95 corridor. Freezing rain doesn't look to be an issue with this storm. Basically a narrow rain/snow line with sleet within either side of this line. This line could start slightly northwest of the I-95 corridor early and slowly push southeastwards late. Further southeast precipitation will be rain, which could fall heavy at times as the immediate coastline will be closest to the deepest moisture. Precipitation here could end as snow as the storm pulls away and colder air wraps into the backside of low pressure.

The further north and west one gets from I-95 snow will be the predominate precipitation type. The snow will fall steady for a 6-9 hour with some lingering lighter snows in the upper trough following the system. Anywhere from 25-150 miles inland should see a plowable snow storm with some areas approaching over 6 inches of snow. The best chances for this will be in the southeast Catskills, Taconics, NW Connecticut and along/to the south of the Mass pike. Northwest of a line extending from north-central Pennsylvania to east-central New York to central Maine snow accumulations will really taper off with only an inch or two expected.

Precipitation will end from SW to NE, leaving Pennsylvania/New York/New Jersey early on Monday, southern New England by late morning and northern New England during the early afternoon. A few flurries or snow showers could linger near the lakes or around the higher elevations of northern New York and New England, but high pressure will quickly build into the area by the evening, drying things out.

Temperatures will be in the 30's along the coastal areas from southern New England south with low 40's possible in extreme southern New Jersey Sunday night before temperatures here fall into the 30's Monday morning once cold air warps in behind the low. Over the interior temperatures will range from the teens over northern New York and New England to the 20's elsewhere Sunday night. On Monday highs over the interior will range from the 20's north to the 30's south.


Snowfall Sunday night-Monday afternoon

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There's only a short break until the next system moves into the Northeast, a potent clipper system. Clouds and snow showers will spread from west to east as we ring in the New Year, reaching eastern New York by daybreak. A couple of inches of snow could fall over the higher elevations of Pennsylvania extending northwards into New York. In New England dry conditions will pervail with partly cloudy skies. Temperatures will run slightly above normal.


Clipper storm gradually intensifies as it moves into the St.Lawrence Valley on New Year's Day. Snow pulls into New England with Atlantic moisture providing more influence on the developing low. An advisory level snowfall in possible over southern New England extending into Vermont and New Hampshire. The potential exists for significant amounts of snow over Maine as a secondary low develops in the Gulf of Maine along the frontal boundary and taps even more Atlantic moisture. Much cold air and cyclonic flow will get the lakes going once again. Temperatures will fall to slightly below normal levels as cold front sweeps through the region.


Tuesday night into Wednesday the arctic front crosses the region with the possibility of snow squalls across the interior along this boundary. Behind it much colder air invades the Northeast with lake-effect kicking into full gear and snow showers extending down to the coast. Despite some mitigating factors the potential exists for significant amounts of lake-effect snowfall. Minor shortwave disturbances will surely bring enhanced bands off the lakes and carry them inland. Over northern New York and New England terrain enhanced snow showers will also be present. Away from the lakes and higher terrain skies will be partly to mostly cloudy with biting winds throughout the area. Temperatures will fall to near 10 degrees below average.

Arctic high builds into the region by Wednesday and Thursday diminishing the lake-effect. Many locations in the Northeast will have their coldest night thus far this winter as snow should cover much of the region and nearly ideal radiational cooling conditions setting up under arctic high pressure. Temperatures will average 10-15 degrees below normal.

A slight recovery on Thursday with partly cloudy to mostly clear skies and temperatures continuing to average close to 10 degrees below normal. Some snow showers are possible off the lakes, but nothing major.

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Temperatures begin a moderating trend by Thursday night and Friday as high pressure pulls offshore and a clipper low drops out of Canada, increasing the southwesterly flow. The track of this clipper is uncertain at this time, but areas across the north stand the best chances at precipitation, falling in the form of snow, with either rain or snow showers to the south.





___________________________________________________________

Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar

___________________________________________________________


Current Northeast Snowcover

Northeast Snowcover


MODIS Rapid Response satellite photo of Northeast snow cover (12/06/2007)


___________________________________________________________

Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.

---------------------------

Great Lakes SST's 12/07/2007

Great Lakes SST's as of 12/07/2007.

-------

Fillipini's Pond conditions (Lake across street)

11/6: 42°F
11/9: 37°F
11/11: 33°F - 1st morning with grease ice on lake.
11/17: 33°F
11/22: 34°F
11/24: 32°F - patchy ice on lake this morning
11/25: 32°F - lake iced over completely, melting along the shores during the afternoon.
12/1: Patchy ice has been on the lake all week. Lake should freeeze over completely tonight.
12/3: Lake is frozen over and covered with snow. Thickness measurements starting soon.

___________________________________________________________



December Daily Weather Statistics

Date___________Hi/Lo____Precip___Sun___Snow____(Snowdepth)

December 1st - 28°F/11°F....Trace....80%..Trace..(0")
December 2nd - 30°F/12°F....0.32"....0%...3.8"...(3")
December 3rd - 36°F/22°F....0.43"....10%..1.8"...(3")
December 4th - 22°F/18°F....0.03"....10%..0.6"...(4")
December 5th - 21°F/14°F....0.02"....0%...0.3"...(4")
December 6th - 28°F/9°F.....0.00"....95%..0.0"...(3")
December 7th - 25°F/9°F.....0.06"....10%..0.9"...(4")
December 8th - 36°F/24°F....0.00"....25%..0.0"...(3")
December 9th - 30°F/23°F....0.24"....0%...0.0"...(3")
December 10th - 34°F/27°F....0.11"....0%..0.0"...(3")
December 11th - 32°F/19°F....0.17"....35%..0.0"...(2")
December 12th - 41°F/27°F....0.14"....50%..Trace..(2")
December 13th - 27°F/21°F....0.84"....0%...9.6"..(2")
December 14th - 35°F/21°F....0.00"....15%..0.0"..(10")
December 15th - 27°F/11°F....0.08"....30%..0.1"..(8")
December 16th - 28°F/11°F....0.94"....0%...4.4"...(10")
December 17th - 23°F/15°F....0.03"....40%..0.4"...(11")
December 18th - 32°F/13°F....0.00"....90%..0.0"...(10")
December 19th - 33°F/19°F....0.11"....20%..1.3"...(11")
December 20th - 32°F/26°F....Trace....0%...Trace..(11")
December 21st - 30°F/27°F....0.01"....0%...0.1"...(11")
December 22nd - 32°F/27°F....Trace....0%...Trace..(11")
December 23rd - 52°F/32°F....0.63"....0%...0.0"...(10")
December 24th - 36°F/28°F....0.00"....10%..0.0"...(5")
December 25th - 32°F/30°F....0.00"....0%...0.0"...(5")
December 26th - 35°F/18°F....0.00"....10%..0.0"...(5")
December 27th - 33°F/30°F....0.05"....0%...0.3"...(4")
December 28th - 38°F/31°F....0.18"....40%..0.0"...(4")



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Updated: 6:14 PM GMT on December 29, 2007

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Three or four possible storms to close out 2007

By: sullivanweather, 8:32 AM GMT on December 27, 2007

Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings

___________________________________________________________


Regional Forecast

Coastal low on its way out to sea this Thursday morning with another weakening trough quickly moving into the Northeast right behind it. Another low moves through the region on Friday and Saturday. The Northeast could be brushed by a southern stream disturbance on Sunday/Sunday night with another clipper-like low moving into the region on New Year's Eve with a pretty sizable chunk of arctic air invading the US east of the Rocky Mountains for the New Year.

-------

Departing coastal low pressure will bring rain to the southern New England coast early this Thursday morning with spotty freezing rain and sleet over inland locations. This precipitation will quickly move offshore as another trough approaches from the west. Although weakening, enough lift/moisture will be in place over the interior of the Northeast for a tenth to a third of an inch QPF. Slight cold advection filtering in behind the coastal low and dynamic cooling associated with upper trough should cool the column enough for snow over inland locations above 1200' south of a Bradford, PA - Binghamton, NY - Worcester, MA line with lower elevations seeing rain. Where precipitation falls as snow a coasting to an inch of snow can be found. Further north of here even valley locations should receive snowfall with accumulations of one or two inches. Over higher elevations two to four inches will accumulate. Southeastern Pennsylvania and central/southern New Jersey could escape precipitation from this system with mainly cloudy skies. Temperatures will range from the upper 20's over northern New York and New England with low 40's over southeastern Pennsylvania and central/southern New Jersey. In between 30's will dominate with near freezing temperatures over the higher terrain/northern valleys and mid to upper 30's over the valley locations to the south.


Upper trough consolidates with coastal low over the Canadian Maritimes Thursday night with a surface trough lingering over northern New England during the overnight. This should bring an additional one to two inches of snowfall during the overnight. Total accumulations will be three to five inches over the higher terrain from northern New York to northern New England including Downeast Maine where a bit of Atlantic moisture could be thrown into the mix. Clouds will be slow to depart despite high pressure building into the area as a fair amount of low level moisture will be trapped under the inversion. Overnight lows will fall into the 30's along the coastal plain south of southern New England and along southern Pennsylvania with 20's over the interior and coastal northern New England.

----------

As quickly as one storm departs another will move in to take its place by Friday night and Saturday. Recent model trends have been slightly cooler with this storm as cold air damming east of the Appalachians appears to be a bit more pronounced than models have previously indicated. This could bring more frozen/freezing precipitation to the interior, especially with the bulk of the precipitation falling during the nighttime hours. The potential also exists for up to six or more inches of snow over the higher terrain across northern New York and New England. The strom track, as it looks right now, will be from the Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley then up the St.Lawrence Valley with a triple point development occuring on Saturday off the coast of New England.

Most of the Northeast should remain precipitation-free during the day on Friday as a ridge axis will lie across the region from northwest to southeast. There should be a mix of clouds and sun during the morning hours with clouds increasing at mid and high levels during the afternoon. By evening precipitation in the form of rain will move into western sections. Temperatures will rise into the 40's along the coastal plain up to southern New England and across southern Pennsylvania. The lower/mid Hudson Valley and interior valleys of northeast Pennsylvania could also crack the 40°F mark. Further inland temperatures will remain in the 30's with 20's over the higher terrain of northern New York and New England.

Precpitation will overspread much of the Northeast Friday night. Over western New York and much of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania this precipitation will fall as rain. Coastal locations will also see rainfall from this system as well but situation could be a bit more wintry once one heads into the Catskills/Poconos/Berkshires. Temperatures could remain below freezing at the surface for much of the night as warming air moves in aloft allowing for a mixture of freezing rain and sleet. A changeover to plain rain may occur towards daybreak limiting the potential for signifcant ice accretions. Over the north country precipitation will be in the form of snow with perhaps a slight bit a sleet mixing in. Significant accumulations of snow on the order of three to six inches could fall over the Adirondacks and Green and White Mountains through daybreak Saturday. Further northward over northern Maine most of the night should remain dry with precipitation moving in well after midnight with an inch or so expected by Saturday morning.

Some small stream and urban/poor drainage flooding may occur as well with up to an inch of precipitation possible over southern/coastal sections. Some snowpack remains over southeastern New York and southern New England which should undergo melting and contribute to the flooding concerns.

Temperatures will fall a few degrees during the evening hours before precipitation begins. Thereafter temperatures will hold and perhaps rise a few degrees by daybreak as southerly flow intensifies ahead of the low pressure.

Cold front moves through the western half of the region by noon on Saturday and offshore during the afternoon, ending precipitation as it passes through from west to east. Snow showers will continue over northern New England as trough hangs over the region connecting the primary low to the secondary developing over the Gulf of Maine. Additional accumulations of snow will range from a couple of inches over the Adirondacks/Green and White mountains to several inches over northern Maine. Coastal locations in Maine will see snow mix with rain, limiting accumulations here. Snow showers will develop downwind of the Great Lakes as moist cyclonic flow and marginal temperatures aloft combine to deposit a couple of inches over the snowbelts. Temperatures will not rise much as cold frontal passage will allow for cold air advections from late morning onwards for a good portion of the Northeast. Highs will range from the 40's along the coastal plain to the 30's over the interior except for the higher terrain up north where temperatures could hold in the 20's.

-------


Models begin to diverge in their solutions by Sunday as the GFS carries a southern stream disturbace offshore to the south of the region while the ECMWF suggests this system will move further north. If the ECMWF verifies at least the southern half of the region will be brushed with precipitation, mainly in the form of snow with rain confined to coastal areas. Several inches of snow could fall according to the ECMWF by Sunday night while the GFS keeps the northern edge of precipitation in southern New Jersey primarily in the form of rain. A compromise solution, as indicated by the Canadian GGEM seems to be the way to go for now. This would bring precipitation across the southern half of the Northeast, just not as heavy as the ECMWF indicates. Daytime temperatures will be near normal with above normal temperatures at night due to clouds and lack of a true cold airmass.

A clipper system moves into the Northeast on New Year's Eve and New Year's Day spreading mainly snow showers across the region.

Behind this clipper the door opens to some arctic air as a deep trough carves itself out over the eastern United States. At this time models are indicating a progressive trough whose axis will set up far enough east to deter any East Coast snow storm. However at this juncture it is too early to say for sure whether or not this scenario will hold. Any strong shortwave that drops down the backside of this trough has the potential to spin up an impressive snow storm. At more than seven days out it would be next to impossible for models to resolve such a scenario as any upper energy that would be in question to spin up such a storm is still over Asia at this time. It is certainly something to keep an eye on given the amplitude of the trough/extent of cold air that will be over the east.

__________________________________________________________

Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar

___________________________________________________________


Current Northeast Snowcover

Northeast Snowcover


MODIS Rapid Response satellite photo of Northeast snow cover (12/06/2007)


___________________________________________________________

Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.

---------------------------

Great Lakes SST's 12/07/2007

Great Lakes SST's as of 12/07/2007.

-------

Fillipini's Pond conditions (Lake across street)

11/6: 42°F
11/9: 37°F
11/11: 33°F - 1st morning with grease ice on lake.
11/17: 33°F
11/22: 34°F
11/24: 32°F - patchy ice on lake this morning
11/25: 32°F - lake iced over completely, melting along the shores during the afternoon.
12/1: Patchy ice has been on the lake all week. Lake should freeeze over completely tonight.
12/3: Lake is frozen over and covered with snow. Thickness measurements starting soon.

___________________________________________________________



December Daily Weather Statistics

Date___________Hi/Lo____Precip___Sun___Snow____(Snowdepth)

December 1st - 28°F/11°F....Trace....80%..Trace..(0")
December 2nd - 30°F/12°F....0.32"....0%...3.8"...(3")
December 3rd - 36°F/22°F....0.43"....10%..1.8"...(3")
December 4th - 22°F/18°F....0.03"....10%..0.6"...(4")
December 5th - 21°F/14°F....0.02"....0%...0.3"...(4")
December 6th - 28°F/9°F.....0.00"....95%..0.0"...(3")
December 7th - 25°F/9°F.....0.06"....10%..0.9"...(4")
December 8th - 36°F/24°F....0.00"....25%..0.0"...(3")
December 9th - 30°F/23°F....0.24"....0%...0.0"...(3")
December 10th - 34°F/27°F....0.11"....0%..0.0"...(3")
December 11th - 32°F/19°F....0.17"....35%..0.0"...(2")
December 12th - 41°F/27°F....0.14"....50%..Trace..(2")
December 13th - 27°F/21°F....0.84"....0%...9.6"..(2")
December 14th - 35°F/21°F....0.00"....15%..0.0"..(10")
December 15th - 27°F/11°F....0.08"....30%..0.1"..(8")
December 16th - 28°F/11°F....0.94"....0%...4.4"...(10")
December 17th - 23°F/15°F....0.03"....40%..0.4"...(11")
December 18th - 32°F/13°F....0.00"....90%..0.0"...(10")
December 19th - 33°F/19°F....0.11"....20%..1.3"...(11")
December 20th - 32°F/26°F....Trace....0%...Trace..(11")
December 21st - 30°F/27°F....0.01"....0%...0.1"...(11")
December 22nd - 32°F/27°F....Trace....0%...Trace..(11")
December 23rd - 52°F/32°F....0.63"....0%...0.0"...(10")
December 24th - 36°F/28°F....0.00"....10%..0.0"...(5")
December 25th - 32°F/30°F....0.00"....0%...0.0"...(5")
December 26th - 35°F/18°F....0.00"....10%..0.0"...(5")
December 27th - 33°F/30°F....0.05"....0%...0.2"...(4")


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Updated: 12:06 PM GMT on December 28, 2007

Permalink

Active pattern on the way.

By: sullivanweather, 12:06 PM GMT on December 25, 2007

Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings


Today's update will be brief. Christmas and all...

___________________________________________________________


Regional Forecast

**Active pattern for the last week of 2007**


High pressure builds into the Northeast this Christmas Day with mainly fair skies and temperatures slightly above normal. Clouds will increase from the south on Thursday as a coastal low pressure system works towards the region. This low will pass far enough offshore Thursday night to only affect coastal areas with any precipitation, which should be in the form of rain. On Friday an upper trough combined with a weak surface low will move across the region. Rain showers can be expected along coastal areas with snow showers inland. After a brief 12-18 hour break another low pressure system will move into the Northeast on Saturday bringing snow north and rain south. Colder air filters into the region on Sunday as high pressure builds in before another low pressure moves into the Northeast on New Year's Eve. Colder air in place over the Northeast will yeild more snow compared to Saturday's storm.

-------

Details to follow later as well as a comment on the cold air poised to spread across the country for the new year.

__________________________________________________________

Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar

___________________________________________________________


Current Northeast Snowcover

Northeast Snowcover


MODIS Rapid Response satellite photo of Northeast snow cover (12/06/2007)


___________________________________________________________

Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.

---------------------------

Great Lakes SST's 12/07/2007

Great Lakes SST's as of 12/07/2007.

-------

Fillipini's Pond conditions (Lake across street)

11/6: 42°F
11/9: 37°F
11/11: 33°F - 1st morning with grease ice on lake.
11/17: 33°F
11/22: 34°F
11/24: 32°F - patchy ice on lake this morning
11/25: 32°F - lake iced over completely, melting along the shores during the afternoon.
12/1: Patchy ice has been on the lake all week. Lake should freeeze over completely tonight.
12/3: Lake is frozen over and covered with snow. Thickness measurements starting soon.

___________________________________________________________



December Daily Weather Statistics

Date___________Hi/Lo____Precip___Sun___Snow____(Snowdepth)

December 1st - 28°F/11°F....Trace....80%..Trace..(0")
December 2nd - 30°F/12°F....0.32"....0%...3.8"...(3")
December 3rd - 36°F/22°F....0.43"....10%..1.8"...(3")
December 4th - 22°F/18°F....0.03"....10%..0.6"...(4")
December 5th - 21°F/14°F....0.02"....0%...0.3"...(4")
December 6th - 28°F/9°F.....0.00"....95%..0.0"...(3")
December 7th - 25°F/9°F.....0.06"....10%..0.9"...(4")
December 8th - 36°F/24°F....0.00"....25%..0.0"...(3")
December 9th - 30°F/23°F....0.24"....0%...0.0"...(3")
December 10th - 34°F/27°F....0.11"....0%..0.0"...(3")
December 11th - 32°F/19°F....0.17"....35%..0.0"...(2")
December 12th - 41°F/27°F....0.14"....50%..Trace..(2")
December 13th - 27°F/21°F....0.84"....0%...9.6"..(2")
December 14th - 35°F/21°F....0.00"....15%..0.0"..(10")
December 15th - 27°F/11°F....0.08"....30%..0.1"..(8")
December 16th - 28°F/11°F....0.94"....0%...4.4"...(10")
December 17th - 23°F/15°F....0.03"....40%..0.4"...(11")
December 18th - 32°F/13°F....0.00"....90%..0.0"...(10")
December 19th - 33°F/19°F....0.11"....20%..1.3"...(11")
December 20th - 32°F/26°F....Trace....0%...Trace..(11")
December 21st - 30°F/27°F....0.01"....0%...0.1"...(11")
December 22nd - 32°F/27°F....Trace....0%...Trace..(11")
December 23rd - 52°F/32°F....0.63"....0%...0.0"...(10")
December 24th - 36°F/28°F....0.00"....10%..0.0"...(5")
December 25th - 32°F/30°F....0.00"....0%...0.0"...(5")


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Updated: 6:37 PM GMT on December 26, 2007

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Rain for most Sunday; White Christmas?

By: sullivanweather, 6:13 PM GMT on December 21, 2007

Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings

__________________________________________________________




White Christmas??

White Christmas 2007

Projected Christmas Day snowcover in the Northeast.

___________________________________________________________


Regional Forecast

Onshore flow will keep clouds over the Northeast with some light drizzle and flurries near coastal areas until Saturday morning. High pressure will move out to sea by Saturday afternoon as a cyclone organizes over the western Great Lakes. This low will move into Canada with a mild southerly flow of air flooding into the Northeast on Sunday, bringing mostly rain to the region. Strong cold front crosses the region Sunday night and Christmas Eve morning with lake-effect/upslope snow showers in its wake. High pressure builds in on Christmas Day and sticks around until Wednesday. Next system approaches from the Ohio Valley on Thursday and moves through the Northeast Friday.

-----

Continued onshore flow of maritime polar will keep low clouds banked up against the east side of the Appalachians Saturday morning with partly cloudy to mostly clear skies over northern New England and the west side of the Appalachians. Patchy fog, drizzle and over inland areas, freezing drizzle or flurries will dot the area within 150 miles of the New Jersey/southern New England coasts. Warm advection will increase mid/high level cloudiness during the afternoon as southerly flow ahead of a developing cyclone over the Midwest pushes into the Northeast. Scattered light rain showers and drizzle will move up the Allegheny Front during the afternoon and spread into central Pennsylvania. Temperatures will be quite mild relative to recent weeks. Highs could reach into the 40's from the southern New England coast, southwards to central and southern New Jersey, across southern Pennsylvania and up the west side of the Appalachians into the Niagra Frontier. Along the east side of the Appalachians from northeast Pennsylvania into east-central/northern New York and central/northern New England temperatures will remain in the 30's with 20's confined to the highest elevations of the Adirondacks, Green and White Mountains and the Presidental Range.

Clouds and moisture increase Saturday night as southerly flow increases after midnight. Low clouds, fog and drizzle will be commonplace across much of the western half of the Northeast. Over eastern sections some complications arise as temperatures should drop below freezing from the Catskill/Pocono Mountains north and east allowing for a mixture of sleet and/or freezing rain/drizzle. Along the coastal plain temperaturs will be warm enough for all liquid precipitation. Low temperatures will occur during the evening with steady or slowly rising temperatures overnight as southerly flow increases. Many icing concerns will be alleviated early Sunday morning as temperatures should rise above freezing, except over northern New England where below freezing temperatures will hang on a bit longer. Over southern Pennsylvania, the Jersey Shore and the eastern Great Lakes region overnight lows should hover near 40°F. Elsewhere along the coastal plain temperatures will be in the 30's. Further inland along the east side of the Appalachians temperatures will be near or slightly below freezing up to northern New York and New England where temperatures will fall into the 20's.


The cold front approaches very quickly from the west as cyclone wraps up over upper Great Lakes region Sunday morning. Scattered showers will be found throughout the Northeast with some freezing precipitation across northern New England, however, the main show will begin to take place over western sections. As the cold front moves into western New York and Pennsylvania heavy rain will break out as well as strong southerly winds. Strong low level jet over 50kts as well as a 850mb jet over 80kts will help to transport tremendous amounts of moisture into the region as well as strong winds. These stronger winds will be felt at higher elevations first, then as inversion breaks down, lower evelations will get in on the act. Rainfall could become problematic as three quarters of an inch to an inch and a quarter of rainfall could fall over a 6 hour period with the passage of the front. A line of low-topped convection could also accompany the frontal boundary as it moves through the Northeast. This convection could easily tap stronger winds aloft and drag them to the surface, making for possible 50 to 60kt gusts in localized spots. With a decent snowpack atop frozen ground across much of the Northeast localized flooding problems could arise. Dewpoints climbing into the 40's, combined with heavy rainfall and strong winds will help to melt a large portion of snowpack. Fortunately, these conditons will only be met for a short time, as warm air will be shunted east quickly and heavy rain shouldn't last any longer than 6 hours in any one location. Areas from north-central Pennsylvania eastwards into east-central New York and southwestern New England also have a thick layer of sleet within the snowpack which should ride some greater protection against melting. Regardless, over an inch of rainfall combined with an inch to an inch and a half release of water from the snowpack all in a 6 hour period could cause some smaller, flashier creeks and streams to flood. Larger/main stem rivers should stay within their banks but could see some levels approach action stage/reach bankfull.

Further east over much of New England the heavier rain should hold off until after dark with scattered showers for most of the day. Temperatures here should climb into the 30's with 40's along coastal areas. Back towards New York temperatures will climb into the 40's across most of the state. Exceptions will be over Niagra Frontier where highs could break 50°F. The same will hold true for the New York City metro area and Long Island where low 50's will be common. Over the Adirondacks temperatures should hold in the upper 30's. Pennsylvania and New Jersey will be bisected by the 50°F isotherm with 40's to the north and along the Allegheny Front and 50's south. There's even a slight chance that the Cape May area could hit 60°F.


Strong front finishes crossing the region Sunday night with heaviest rain/strongest winds pushing into New England. However, by this time the front will be racing out ahead of best upper support so slightly lower rainfall amounts will be falling into a deeper snowpack with lower temperatures, reducing the flooding threat. Instead of a creek and stream flooding event this will be more of a poor/blocked storm drain/ponding of water event. Rainfall amounts of a half an inch to an inch are expected over New England with the passage of this frontal boundary. Dry slot moving in quickly behind front will limit the changeover potential as some snow showers are possible once colder air reaches the area, but accumulations are unlikely. The greatest threat for any accumualting snow behind the front will be across the snowbelt region east of the Great Lakes, but even here, unfavorable windflow will limit accumulations to a few inches at best. Strong cold air advection behind the front will also make for some very gusty winds as strong mixing of a 30-40kt low level jet just off the surface will easily be brought down. Some flash freeze concerns as well as cold air will invade regions soon after rainfall ends. Exposed surfaces should dry from strong winds, but areas of run-off or areas of standing water could freeze up during the overnight as temperatures drop into the 20's for most across the interior. Along the coast low 30's will do while over western sections temperatures could make it down into the teens.

----------

Christmas Eve and Christmas Day


Scattered snow showers remain over the snowbelts/upslope regions of the Northeast on Monday with a couple of inches of snow possible. Elsewhere it will be partly cloudy and breezy as the Northeast will find itself between ~985mb low southeast of Hudson Bay and ~1026mb high over Mississippi. High temperatures will return to normal levels for late December.

Drier air advects into the region Monday night as high pressure moves into the Mid-Atlantic States. Lake-effect snows will shift towards the north as windflow becomes westerly. Otherwise skies will be partly cloudy to mostly clear with decreasing winds and near normal lows.

High pressure lifts into the Northeast from the Mid-Atlantic region on Tuesday and Tuesday night, shutting down the lake-effect. A weak mid-level disturbace moving overhead will do provide an increase in mid-level cloudiness, but not much else. Temperatures will continue to average near normal levels for late December.

-------------

Highly uncertain patterns develops in the long term as a highly amplified jet over the western states flattens over the eastern US. Models are struggling in their handling of these systems as they cross the Plains, dampening the first couple of impulses as they head east. By Thursday and Friday a more significant low pressure system will try to organize over the Mississippi Valley once again and push towards the Northeast. There's a lack of arctic air over most of the North American continent with mainly polar air from the Rocky Mountains eastwards. Temperatures will be marginal for snowfall over the Northeast with best chances for seeing the white stuff over northern New York and New England from this system. Much can change in this low confidence pattern, but the lack of arctic air is certain.

Seasonably cold air should make an appearance or two during the first week of January, but no real large arctic outbreaks of air appear on the horizon as the core of coldest air will remain over central Siberia until the current arctic oscillation cycle breaks down in about 2 weeks. Thereafter flow could become cross-polar and transport a large chunk of this air from Asia to North America. The next question becomes how much of this arctic air makes it down into the Contiguous United States.

At this time it doesn't appear as though much of it will. Near neutral NAO/PNA patterns should keep the evacuation route for much of this arctic air over eastern Canada between Baffin Bay and Nova Scotia with perhaps the northerntier of the country briefly grazed once or twice. The ridge over the Southeast should more or less maintain itself in this La Nina pattern. A split flow in the jet stream will dominate the weather pattern with northern branch positioned from the Canadian Rockys to the upper Great Lakes region while the southern jet cuts a path into the Four Corners region then east-northeastward around the top of the southeastern ridge. This pattern will likely keep the US in an active pattern of mainly weak to moderate strength fast moving storms.

__________________________________________________________

Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar

___________________________________________________________


Current Northeast Snowcover

Northeast Snowcover


MODIS Rapid Response satellite photo of Northeast snow cover (12/06/2007)


___________________________________________________________

Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.

---------------------------

Great Lakes SST's 12/07/2007

Great Lakes SST's as of 12/07/2007.

-------

Fillipini's Pond conditions (Lake across street)

11/6: 42°F
11/9: 37°F
11/11: 33°F - 1st morning with grease ice on lake.
11/17: 33°F
11/22: 34°F
11/24: 32°F - patchy ice on lake this morning
11/25: 32°F - lake iced over completely, melting along the shores during the afternoon.
12/1: Patchy ice has been on the lake all week. Lake should freeeze over completely tonight.
12/3: Lake is frozen over and covered with snow. Thickness measurements starting soon.

___________________________________________________________



December Daily Weather Statistics

Date___________Hi/Lo____Precip___Sun___Snow____(Snowdepth)

December 1st - 28°F/11°F....Trace....80%..Trace..(0")
December 2nd - 30°F/12°F....0.32"....0%...3.8"...(3")
December 3rd - 36°F/22°F....0.43"....10%..1.8"...(3")
December 4th - 22°F/18°F....0.03"....10%..0.6"...(4")
December 5th - 21°F/14°F....0.02"....0%...0.3"...(4")
December 6th - 28°F/9°F.....0.00"....95%..0.0"...(3")
December 7th - 25°F/9°F.....0.06"....10%..0.9"...(4")
December 8th - 36°F/24°F....0.00"....25%..0.0"...(3")
December 9th - 30°F/23°F....0.24"....0%...0.0"...(3")
December 10th - 34°F/27°F....0.11"....0%..0.0"...(3")
December 11th - 32°F/19°F....0.17"....35%..0.0"...(2")
December 12th - 41°F/27°F....0.14"....50%..Trace..(2")
December 13th - 27°F/21°F....0.84"....0%...9.6"..(2")
December 14th - 35°F/21°F....0.00"....15%..0.0"..(10")
December 15th - 27°F/11°F....0.08"....30%..0.1"..(8")
December 16th - 28°F/11°F....0.94"....0%...4.4"...(10")
December 17th - 23°F/15°F....0.03"....40%..0.4"...(11")
December 18th - 32°F/13°F....0.00"....90%..0.0"...(10")
December 19th - 33°F/19°F....0.11"....20%..1.3"...(11")
December 20th - 32°F/26°F....Trace....0%...Trace..(11")
December 21st - 30°F/27°F....0.01"....0%...0.1"...(11")
December 22nd - 32°F/27°F....Trace....0%...Trace..(11")
December 23rd - 52°F/32°F....0.63"....0%...0.0"...(10")


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Updated: 8:49 AM GMT on December 24, 2007

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Dreaming of a White Christmas?

By: sullivanweather, 9:28 PM GMT on December 18, 2007

Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings

__________________________________________________________


A late start for me today. I didn't get home from shopping until 1:30am last night and couldn't wind down to get some sleep until 6am. Needless to say I slept until early afternoon.


__________________________________________________________


White Christmas??

White Christmas 2007

Projected Christmas Day snowcover in the Northeast.

___________________________________________________________


Regional Forecast

A clipper system will approach from the west Tuesday night and spread snow showers into the Northeast Wednesday. Coastal development along with an inverted trough will keep snow going over New England on Thursday. High pressure builds down from Canada Friday, keeping a southern stream disturbance surpressed over the Southeast. This high moves into the Canadian Martimes Saturday with moisture returning to the Northeast. Milder air will also return to the Northeast ahead of a strengthening low pressure over the Midwest that will move into the Great Lakes by Saturday night. Potentially icy scenario for the interior of the Northeast Saturday night with rain along the coastal plain. Warm surge of air could change some inland areas over to rain on Sunday before a strong cold front moves through changing precipitation to snow showers before ending. Lake response/upslope will keep snow going into Christmas Eve in the snow belts and higher terrain of northern New York and New England.

-------------

A clipper low along with an upper trough will move in the Northeast on Wednesday spreading snow showers over the region by afternoon. The highest coverage of these snow showers will be over northern New York and northern New England close to the track of the surface low where an inch or two could accumulate. Further south the snow showers will be more scattered with little, if any, accumulation. Snow could mix with rain along coastal areas from southern New England south. Temperatures will rise into the 30's over the southern two thirds of Pennsylvania, New Jersey, southeastern New York and southern New England as well as areas close to the Great Lakes and interior valleys. Over the rest of the interior temperatures should remain in the 20's with teens over the highest elevations of northern New York and New England.


Upper energy reaches the coast this evening with surface low development occuring off New Jersey. This new area of low pressure will increase the easterly flow over New England, drawing in Atlantic moisture. Steady light snow will develop over southern New England and spread into southern Vermont, New Hampshire and downeast Maine. A few inches of snow may accumulate inland with lesser amounts towards the coast where marginal temperatures may in fact cause precipitation to fall in the form of rain. Since these marginal temperatures will be in the boundary layer any heavier burst of precipitation could change rain to snow. Further west snow shower and flurry activity will be common with any accumulations generally under an inch. Pockets of freezing drizzle are possible as well. Temperatures will not drop much from daily highs with teens and 20's over the interior and low to mid 30's along the coastal areas from southern New England south.

-------

Onshore flow and an inverted trough that will develop on the backside of departing coastal low will feed moisture into an upper trough over New England on Thursday, keeping steady light snow over the area. A few more inches of snow are possible from the interior of Massachusetts to southern Vermont and New Hampshire over to coastal Maine. Lighter snow showers will fall over northern Maine and the rest of New England. Some snow showers could even sneak back into northern and eastern New York State. Elsewhere across the Northeast it will be partly to mostly cloudy. Highs on Thursday will reach the 20's over interior New York and New England. Elsewhere temperatures will reach the 30's with some low 40's possible over southwestern Pennsylvania and southern New Jersey.


Light onshore flow will keep snow showers going over New England and eastern New York State Thursday night. Further west it will remain mostly cloudy with a flurry or two possible. With clouds and maritime airmass over the region overnight lows will be warmer than normal by some 5 degrees on average.

--------------

Snowfall through Thursday night

--------------


Precipitation comes to an end by Friday but mostly cloudy skies will remain with plenty of low level moisture left throughout the Northeast. High pressure building down from Canada will keep a light moist easterly flow over the Northeast. Cloud cover will be most extensive over eastern sections close to the coast with lesser amount of clouds towards western New York and Pennsylvania. There will be little diurnal variation in temperature again with highs remaining close to, or slightly below seasonal averages.

More of the same Friday night with mostly cloudy skies and light winds with high pressure over northern New England keeping things dry. Temperatures will remain above normal for overnight lows by some 5 degrees or more with clouds hanging around the area and warming temperatures aloft.


High pressure moves off into the Canadian Maritimes on Saturday with flow turning southerly. Warm advection continues aloft with 850mb temperatures rising above 0°C over the southern half of the region by the afternoon. However clouds and snowpack will help to keep temperatures from rising much over the interior, mainly staying in the 30's with 20's over the higher elevations of northern New York and New England. Further south temperatures should have no trouble making it into the 40's, especially where little to no snowcover exists.

Light precipitation will spread into the Northeast by Saturday night with mainly rain along coastal areas. Across the interior freezing rain and sleet will become more likely the further north one heads.

---------

Low pressure developing along approaching frontal boundary on Saturday will rapidly move into the Northeast on Sunday. As expected, models have trended weaker and more progressive with this low pressure system over the last few runs. This diminishes the threat for heavy rain and possible flood concerns late this weekend as existing snowpack should easily handle 1/2 to 3/4 of an inch of rainfall without any serious problems. The possibility of sleet and/or freezing rain exists over northern New England, but even here temperatures should warm up enough to change most of the precpitation over to rain by afternoon. High temperatures will be some 5 to 10 degrees above normal in mild southerly flow of air ahead of the frontal boundary.

This frontal boundary and associated low pressure will cross the region Sunday night with rain ending as a period of snow showers. Marginally cold air crossing the lakes will induce a reponse, but no significant snowfall is expected. Skies will remain mostly cloudy behind the front with temperatures overnight around 5 to 10 degrees above normal.

Lake-effect snow will come to an end on Christmas Eve as high pressure builds into the area with a return to near normal temperatures.

By Christmas Day a low pressure system will try to become organized over the Southeast and possibly make the turn up the coast. This could turn into another significant snowfall for the interior of the Northeast by Christmas night continuing into the day after Christmas.


__________________________________________________________

Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar

___________________________________________________________


Current Northeast Snowcover

Northeast Snowcover


MODIS Rapid Response satellite photo of Northeast snow cover (12/06/2007)


___________________________________________________________

Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.

---------------------------

Great Lakes SST's 12/07/2007

Great Lakes SST's as of 12/07/2007.

-------

Fillipini's Pond conditions (Lake across street)

11/6: 42°F
11/9: 37°F
11/11: 33°F - 1st morning with grease ice on lake.
11/17: 33°F
11/22: 34°F
11/24: 32°F - patchy ice on lake this morning
11/25: 32°F - lake iced over completely, melting along the shores during the afternoon.
12/1: Patchy ice has been on the lake all week. Lake should freeeze over completely tonight.
12/3: Lake is frozen over and covered with snow. Thickness measurements starting soon.

___________________________________________________________



December Daily Weather Statistics

Date___________Hi/Lo____Precip___Sun___Snow____(Snowdepth)

December 1st - 28°F/11°F....Trace....80%..Trace..(0")
December 2nd - 30°F/12°F....0.32"....0%...3.8"...(3")
December 3rd - 36°F/22°F....0.43"....10%..1.8"...(3")
December 4th - 22°F/18°F....0.03"....10%..0.6"...(4")
December 5th - 21°F/14°F....0.02"....0%...0.3"...(4")
December 6th - 28°F/9°F.....0.00"....95%..0.0"...(3")
December 7th - 25°F/9°F.....0.06"....10%..0.9"...(4")
December 8th - 36°F/24°F....0.00"....25%..0.0"...(3")
December 9th - 30°F/23°F....0.24"....0%...0.0"...(3")
December 10th - 34°F/27°F....0.11"....0%..0.0"...(3")
December 11th - 32°F/19°F....0.17"....35%..0.0"...(2")
December 12th - 41°F/27°F....0.14"....50%..Trace..(2")
December 13th - 27°F/21°F....0.84"....0%...9.6"..(2")
December 14th - 35°F/21°F....0.00"....15%..0.0"..(10")
December 15th - 27°F/11°F....0.08"....30%..0.1"..(8")
December 16th - 28°F/11°F....0.94"....0%...4.4"...(10")
December 17th - 23°F/15°F....0.03"....40%..0.4"...(11")
December 18th - 32°F/13°F....0.00"....90%..0.0"...(10")
December 19th - 33°F/19°F....0.11"....20%..1.3"...(11")
December 20th - 32°F/26°F....Trace....0%...Trace..(11")


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Updated: 6:24 AM GMT on December 21, 2007

Permalink

Northeast digs out

By: sullivanweather, 2:27 PM GMT on December 17, 2007

Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings

------------------

Hey everyone! Only a fast update today as I'm running out of the house soon to go Christmas shopping in Albany. Full update will be tomorrow

------------------

Recap of this weekends' Nor'easter.

Binghamton area snow amounts

Albany area snow amounts

Buffalo area snow amounts

Central Pennsylvania snow amounts

New York City area snow amounts

Southern New England snow amounts

Northern New York/Vermont snow amounts

Southern Maine/northern New Hampshire snow amounts

Northern Maine snow amounts

------------

Snow amounts from area bloggers

Libertygirl----------- 4-6"
Sullivanweather------- 4.8"
ListenerVT------------ 14"
TheShovler3----------- 4.7"
Dean2007-------------- 4"
Sabesin2001----------- 8-10"
stormmaven------------ 10"
BostonDan------------- 8.5"
dstar2002------------- 4"
Snowhaloeboy---------- 6-8"
LakeShadow------------ 12"
crodge---------------- 5-8"
cburk2524------------- 6.5"

***If these amounts have changed since your last post and want your totals displayed, post them in the blog and I will update when I get home later!! Thanks all!!***
__________________________________________________________


Regional Forecast


Lake-effect snow showers will continue this Monday morning over the snow belts, dropping an additional couple inches of snow before tapering this afternoon. Otherwise expect partly cloudy skies across the Northeast with blustery conditions today. High's will range from the teens over northern New York and New England to 20's across the rest of the interior with some 30's down along the southern coastlines. Northwesterly winds will blow at 10-20mph with gusts to 35 mph at times before diminishing some by late afternoon.

Mostly clear skies tonight over the Northeast away from the lakes. A shortwave dropping into the Great Lakes region will reactivate the lake-effect overnight with a few more inches of accumulation in the snow belts possible. Temperatures will be very cold with single numbers and a few below zero readings over northern New York and New England. Further south over the rest of the interior temperatures will drop mainly in the teens with a few single digits readings here as well. Along coastal areas 20's will suffice.



Lake-effect will continue into Tuesday morning, with bands weakening and lifting northwards as flow goes anti-cyclonic during the morning. By afternoon, just a few bands will be moving off the lakes in a west-southwesterly flow. Temperatures will rise into the teens north, with 30's along the coast from the New York City metro area south. Inbetween temperatures will rise into the mid and upper 20's.

High clouds begin to spill back into the region on Tuesday night as a clipper system approaches. Some light snow showers will persist off Lake Ontario due to lingering lake-effect but synpotic snows will likely hold off until after daybreak. Lows will drop into the single numbers both above and below zero from northern New York into northern New England. Teens over much of the interior with 20's once again along coastal areas.

----------

Clipper moves into the Northeast on Wednesday, spreading snow showers across the region. Snow showers will be most concentrated over northern areas of New York and New England with less coverage, if any at all, along coastal areas. If precipitation does make it down to the coast some rain could mix in as boundary layer warms above freezing in these areas. Further inland precipitation should remain all snow. Accumulations will be light, only an inch or two and mainly over the higher terrain. Some lake enhancement could provide an inch or two in the snow belts as well. Temperatures will run around 5 degrees below normal.

Possible coastal low development southeast of southern New England could enhance snowfall along the New England coast Wednesday night. This situation will need to be watched as a quick burst of snow during the overnight could deposit a quick 2-3 inches of snow. Lake-effect will be minimal due to the air behind this clipper not being especially cold enough to induce much instability off the rapidly cooling lakes. Elsewhere over the region it will be partly to mostly cloudy with scattered flurries. Temperatures will be near normal Wednesday night due to clouds hanging around the area preventing a large fall from the daily highs.



Models are indicating the possible development of an inverted trough on the backside of the clipper system that could keep snow going in New England during the day on Thursday. Aside from that, high pressure will nose into the Northeast out of southern Canada drying the rest of the region out. Temepratures will continue to average below normal.

-----

Two possible systems in the long-term period, one on Friday and another on Sunday.

Models have been jumping all over the place in respect to a developing low pressure system in the Mid-Mississippi Valley region of the country. Some take this system safely offshore to our south, while others turn this system into a coastal low and snowstorm. Enough time is left in the lead up to this event without having to make any difinitive statement at this time. So for now will just like to have the chance of this system having a serious impact on the forecast by Friday.

High pressure regains control on Saturday before another low pressure approaches for Sunday. This storm could have a warmer scenario, as indicated by models presently. But the trend this winter has been to moves these systems further south and east as they approach with high pressure holding firm over northern New England/southern Canada. I would not be surprised to see the same situation play itself out again with each model run over the next several days. This second system will have a stronger feed of moisture/warmth with it, so an icy scenario is a distinct possibility as well.

This low is progged to become a rather deep, vertically stacked low pressure system over southern Canada in the long term. That would place the Northeast in cold, moist cyclonic flow for the Christmas holiday with plenty of lake-effect snow showers, aided by synoptic moisture in wraparound from deep low.



__________________________________________________________

Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar

___________________________________________________________


Current Northeast Snowcover

Northeast Snowcover


MODIS Rapid Response satellite photo of Northeast snow cover (12/06/2007)


___________________________________________________________

Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.

---------------------------

Great Lakes SST's 12/07/2007

Great Lakes SST's as of 12/07/2007.

-------

Fillipini's Pond conditions (Lake across street)

11/6: 42°F
11/9: 37°F
11/11: 33°F - 1st morning with grease ice on lake.
11/17: 33°F
11/22: 34°F
11/24: 32°F - patchy ice on lake this morning
11/25: 32°F - lake iced over completely, melting along the shores during the afternoon.
12/1: Patchy ice has been on the lake all week. Lake should freeeze over completely tonight.
12/3: Lake is frozen over and covered with snow. Thickness measurements starting soon.

___________________________________________________________



December Daily Weather Statistics

Date___________Hi/Lo____Precip___Sun___Snow____(Snowdepth)

December 1st - 28°F/11°F....Trace....80%..Trace..(0")
December 2nd - 30°F/12°F....0.32"....0%...3.8"...(3")
December 3rd - 36°F/22°F....0.43"....10%..1.8"...(3")
December 4th - 22°F/18°F....0.03"....10%..0.6"...(4")
December 5th - 21°F/14°F....0.02"....0%...0.3"...(4")
December 6th - 28°F/9°F.....0.00"....95%..0.0"...(3")
December 7th - 25°F/9°F.....0.06"....10%..0.9"...(4")
December 8th - 36°F/24°F....0.00"....25%..0.0"...(3")
December 9th - 30°F/23°F....0.24"....0%...0.0"...(3")
December 10th - 34°F/27°F....0.11"....0%..0.0"...(3")
December 11th - 32°F/19°F....0.17"....35%..0.0"...(2")
December 12th - 41°F/27°F....0.14"....50%..Trace..(2")
December 13th - 27°F/21°F....0.84"....0%...9.6"..(2")
December 14th - 35°F/21°F....0.00"....15%..0.0"..(10")
December 15th - 27°F/11°F....0.08"....30%..0.1"..(8")
December 16th - 28°F/11°F....0.94"....0%...4.4"...(10")


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Updated: 3:33 PM GMT on December 17, 2007

Permalink

Major Nor'easter this weekend.

By: sullivanweather, 6:21 PM GMT on December 14, 2007

Recap of Thursday's snowfall

Binghamton WFO storm summary page (includes map and list of snowfall totals)

Albany area snowfall summary (mouse over 's-plots' on map for more info)


Southern/central New England snow reports

--------

Snow reports from local bloggers

Thesnowman------ 12.0"
Dstar2002------- 11.0"
Theshovler3----- 10.5"
Libertygirl----- 10.0"
Sullivanweather- 9.6"
Dean2007-------- 5-6" snow/sleet
NESTORM--------- 5.5"
Numberwise------ 4.0"




Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings

------------------

Local Radars

Central Pennsylvania Radar Loop

Greatest threat area for significant ice accumulations are in central Pennyslvania this overnight into Sunday morning.

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Radar Loop - North Country

Greatest threat area for seeing snow accumulations over one foot throughout this event is in the North Country where precipitation will mainly fall in the form of snow, heavy at times into Sunday night.

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NYC-Philadelphia metro area radar loop

The transition zone will progress northwards through the megalopolis overnight. By lae morning both Philadelphia and New York City will warm above freezing, but areas 25-30 miles north and west could hang on to below freezing temperatures and sleet/freezing rain for Sunday.

-------


Southern New England local radar

Snow will begin over southern New England after midnight and quickly change to sleet along the Connecticut coast. Furhter inland snow will accumulate a few inches before changing to sleet by morning then freezing rain by afternoon. From a Danbury-Worcester-Concord line precipitation will change to rain at some point during the afternoon. Along the coast and inland roughly 30-50 miles precipitation will change to rain during the morning and stay rain throughout the afternoon, falling heavy at times.


__________________________________________________________


Regional Forecast

A rather late start for me today. Got in a nice long sleep after not going to sleep Wednesday night tracking Thursday's storm. This will probably play itself out again Saturday night as another all-nighter tracking the next, more powerful, storm.

The forecast will be issued soon, most likely before 3pm; graphics 4pm.


---------

Arctic front crosses the region on Friday with attending high pressure not far behind. This high (~1036mb) will slide along the US-Canadian border on Saturday, feeding a very cold ary arctic airmass into the Northeast ahead of a developing low pressure center in the lower Mississippi Valley. This low will move up the west side of the Appalachians during the day on Saturday and transfer its energy to a new low pressure in eastern Virginia Saturday night which will then become a major Nor'easter by Sunday. This low looks to take a track just inland of the coast which will change coastal areas to rain and inland areas up to 100-150 miles from the coast to a mix. From north-central Pennsylvania to upstate New York into northern New England precipitation will be all snow making them the big winners with this storm as one to two feet of snow will accumulate in these areas. Storm pulls away early on Monday dragging down a brutally cold arctic airmass on a gusty northwesterly wind. High pressure builds in on Monday night and Tuesday before another clipper like low pressure brings a trough through the Northeast on Wednesday with chances for snow showers returning. A more significant low pressure system will make a run at the Northeast late in the week with snow inland and rain most likely along the coast.

------------


Arctic front is dropping into the Northeast this Friday afternoon bringing snow showers to northern New York and New England. There's some enhancement off the lakes and a few inches of snow could fall here before drier air advects into the area as high pressure builds down from the upper Great Lakes. Elsewhere it will be partly to mostly cloudy for the remainder of the afternoon with steady to slowly falling temperatures throughout the region.

As the arctic high builds into the area tonight the skies will clear and the winds will calm. With deep snowpack now covering a good two thirds of the Northeast temperatures will plummet after midnight with ideal radiational cooling conditions. Would not be surprised to see mountain valley locations in the north country drop close to -10°F is atmosphere could decouple early enough. The rest of the northern interior should see lows in the single digits and teens. Across the southern interior teens and 20's will do with coastal areas dropping mainly in the 20's.

Deep 500mb trough in the Plains will form a surface low over Southeast Texas Saturday morning that will move into the Tennessee Valley by evening. High clouds out ahead of this developing storm will increase quickly from the west across the southern half of the region and slowly work their way northeastward into southern/central New England during the afternoon. Light snow could develop before dusk over western Pennsylvania and New York as deeper moisture reaches the area. Otherwise it's the calm before the storm. Temperatures will be quite cold qith arctic airmass in place over the northern two thirds of the region. Northern New England could find themselves in the single digits all day while central New England and the northern half of New York stay stuck in the teens. 20's will be common across northern Pennsylvania to southern New England while southern Pennsylvania and central/southern New Jersey climb into the 30's.

----------


A very complicated forecast Saturday night through Monday as many factors will be coming together over the eastern US. Deep tropical moisture at low levels will be feeding into the system from the Gulf of Mexico thanks to the remnants of Olga. Thursdays' low pressure system robbed Olga of much of its moisture at upper levels once that trough dropped southward into the western Atlantic. But that upper moisture will be made up for due to a strong sub-tropical jet feeding moisture into the storm from the east Pacific. A sharp 500mb trough will be pulling into the Ohio Valley with a 700mb cut-off over Illinois. The surface low will be moving into Ohio along the west side of the Applachians with a secondary low forming in the Carolinas. This secondary developing will begin to feed Atlantic moisture into the system with everything converging on the Northeast.

A few questions still remain...

1. Track of 700mb low?

The heaviest snow in the Northeast will fall north of the track of this low at upper levels. To the east and south of the track of this low warmer air should be able to penetrate into the mid-levels and mix/change the snow to sleet.

2. Track/intensity of secondary low?

Where this storm decides to bomb out will be crucial for the area that's 100-150 miles inland AND areas within 30-40 miles of the coast. If the storm decides it wants to blow its top early while near/south of New Jersey it will help to lock in the colder air as the rapidly deepening low will turn the windflow more northeasterly. This could mean more snow for areas 100-150 miles of the coast and more ice for areas within 30-40 miles of the coast. If the storm lolligags and bombs while over southern New England, ice will penetrate further inland and so will the rain. The track of the surface low remains in question as well. While most models are converging on a track about 20 miles inland then skirting out to sea just south of Boston, a slight change in either direction will also effect who sees what over inland sections. If the low tracks along the coast or offshore, more snow. If it tracks even further inland, more rain/ice with only extreme northern New York and New England seeing the excessive snowfall totals.

3. How long does the primary low hold on?

If the primary low holds onto it's strength into Ohio, this could help to bring heavy snows to Michigan and more rain/ice to western sections and around the eastern Lakes. If it dies out quickly more snow for western sections and less ice/rain. Some models hang onto this low significantly longer than others.

Some other things are becoming more clear.

1. Axis of heaviest snowfall

This should be from the northern Finger Lakes region of New York, northeastward into the Adirondacks, Green and White mountains into the northwestern half of Maine. These areas should easily pick up one to two feet of snow with a few 30 inchers mixed in where mesoscale features and orographics combine.

2. Rain along the coast

This is only December and a storm even tracking a little ways offshore ususally can draw enough warmth off the Atlantic to change coastal areas to rain. With an inland track this is all but assured. Most of central/southern New Jersey, the New York City metro area including Long Island and much of southeastern southern New England should change to rain at some point during this storm.



So still trying to keep things a little vague until details become clear, expect snow to overspread much of the southern two-thirds of the Northeast Saturday night. The snow will begin to change to a mix of sleet and freezing rain from the southern half of Pennsylvania to the New York City metro area by daybreak with rain along the southern New Jersey coastline by morning. Precipitation will also become heavy over western sections as best lift/moisture will be found here. Northern New York and central/northern New England should stay dry with high pressure/confluence holding off the storm for a few more hours. Temperatures will be very cold over the north country with single numbers and below zero readings. Teens over the rest of the northern interior with 20's throughout Pennsylvania to southern New England. Along coastal areas from the New York City metro area south temperatures will climb to near freezing and above once one hits southern New Jersey.

-------

Low pressure bombs out on Sunday, dropping down to a ~980mb low close to southern New England by evening. Snow will fall heavily for much of the day across north-central New York into Vermont and New Hampshire with the heavier snows spreading into Maine during the late afternoon. Inland of the coast from 75-150 miles will be a corridor of mainly sleet, which will cut-back on snowfall totals. There's even a chance that a bit of a dry-slot could push into eastern Pennsylvania and southeastern New York greatly lowering the intesnity of the precipitation, bringing more of a light drizzle/mist or where it's cold enough, freezing mist/ice crystals. Along the coastal plain precipitation will be falling mainly in the form of rain with some pockets of freezing rain 40-80 miles of the coast. Winds will pick up out of the northeast at around 20-25mph with higher winds along the coast gusting as high as 50mph.

Snow finally spreads into northern Maine Sunday night with heavy snow continuing over upstate New York and the rest of northern New England. Snowfall rates will lower some over western/central New York but it will continue to fall as cold conveyour moisture wraps around the backside of the low. Further south precipitation should end as a period of snow showers. Along coastal areas of New Hampshire and Maine sleet could mix in with the snow at times. Winds over eastern sections will continue to blow from the northeast while over western sections wind direction will change to out of the northwest. Lake-effect/enhancement will be underway as cold air advects into the region from Canada.

By Monday strom will be wrapping up over the Candian Maritimes with heavy snow confined to northern Maine. Steady snows will end over New York into Vermont and New Hampshire with upslope snow showers in the storms' wake. Lake-effect snow will give the snow belts an additional 3 to 6 inches but with high pressure and dry air quickly moving in behind this low, amounts from lake-effect will be kept in check. Totals snowfall accumulations I will display on a map as it will take a while to type them out on here. There will be blowing and drifting of the snow as well on a gusty northwesterly wind.


Snowfall mP

--------------


A dry, but cold Tuesday will give the Northeast a chance to dig out as high pressure settles over the region. A clipper moves through on Wednesday with a chance for snow showers and a more significant system moves towards the Northeast by next Friday and Saturday. This system looks a little warmer with snow north and rain south.


__________________________________________________________

Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar

___________________________________________________________


Current Northeast Snowcover

Northeast Snowcover


MODIS Rapid Response satellite photo of Northeast snow cover (12/06/2007)


___________________________________________________________

Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.

---------------------------

Great Lakes SST's 12/07/2007

Great Lakes SST's as of 12/07/2007.

-------

Fillipini's Pond conditions (Lake across street)

11/6: 42°F
11/9: 37°F
11/11: 33°F - 1st morning with grease ice on lake.
11/17: 33°F
11/22: 34°F
11/24: 32°F - patchy ice on lake this morning
11/25: 32°F - lake iced over completely, melting along the shores during the afternoon.
12/1: Patchy ice has been on the lake all week. Lake should freeeze over completely tonight.
12/3: Lake is frozen over and covered with snow. Thickness measurements starting soon.

___________________________________________________________



December Daily Weather Statistics

Date___________Hi/Lo____Precip___Sun___Snow____(Snowdepth)

December 1st - 28°F/11°F....Trace....80%..Trace..(0")
December 2nd - 30°F/12°F....0.32"....0%...3.8"...(3")
December 3rd - 36°F/22°F....0.43"....10%..1.8"...(3")
December 4th - 22°F/18°F....0.03"....10%..0.6"...(4")
December 5th - 21°F/14°F....0.02"....0%...0.3"...(4")
December 6th - 28°F/9°F.....0.00"....95%..0.0"...(3")
December 7th - 25°F/9°F.....0.06"....10%..0.9"...(4")
December 8th - 36°F/24°F....0.00"....25%..0.0"...(3")
December 9th - 30°F/23°F....0.24"....0%...0.0"...(3")
December 10th - 34°F/27°F....0.11"....0%..0.0"...(3")
December 11th - 32°F/19°F....0.17"....35%..0.0"...(2")
December 12th - 41°F/27°F....0.14"....50%..Trace..(2")
December 13th - 27°F/21°F....0.84"....0%...9.6"..(2")
December 14th - 35°F/21°F....0.00"....15%..0.0"..(10")
December 15th - 27°F/11°F....0.08"....30%..0.1"..(8")


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Updated: 10:39 PM GMT on December 16, 2007

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One two Winter punch

By: sullivanweather, 10:26 AM GMT on December 13, 2007

Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings

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***Heavy snow threat area***

Radar zoom - heavy snow area

Northeast Pennsylvania, south-central New York eastwards into the Catskills, Berkshires and the hills of northwestern Conecticut should see eight inches to a foot of snowfall today.

This radar close-up will focus on this area today as very heavy snowfall rates of 1-2" per hour will be common this afternoon.



__________________________________________________________


Regional Forecast


The Northeast will bare the brunt of two winter storms over the next several days followed by the coldest airmass of the season. A fast moving low pressure system will bring a round of heavy precipitation to the southern two thirds of the region on Thursday. This low rockets offshore during the evening hours with a cold front following for Friday. Sprawling high pressure builds into the Northeast from Canada ahead of the next system, a possible major nor'easter, that will move into the Northeast late in the day on Saturday and stick around until Sunday night before pulling off into the Canadian Maritimes. Coldest air of the season follows for Monday with slight moderation Tuesday and more so by Wednesday as flow turns zonal across the country and arctic air retreats north of Hudson Bay into the Canadian Archipeligo.

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The last storm in a series of low pressure systems that have plagued the country with devastating ice storms, bouts of snow and flooding rains will move into the Northeast on Thursday. Fed by a sub-tropical jet and and a wide open Gulf of Mexico, copious amounts of moisture will overrun a cold airmass in place over the Northeast resulting in a widespread significant snowfall. In southwestern Pennsylvania precipitation is falling as a mix of snow sleet and freezing rain that will change to rain during the morning hours, then back to snow during the afternoon once low pressure passes. Elsewhere over the Northeast snow will develop during the morning hours from southwest to northeast reaching into New England by early afternoon.

It will be tricky trying to determine where the borders of the transition zones will be with this storm. Warm layer above 800mb could allow for sleet to mix in with the snow within 50 miles of the coastline (25 miles for the New England coast) west into central Pennsylvania. There could also be a change to plain rain along the south shore of Long Island and into the New York City metro area. Over inland central New Jersey and east-central Pennsylvania snow will change to a mix of sleet and freezing rain after a couple of inches of accumulation. Some factors, such as precipitation intensity may be able to overcome some of the atmosphere's temperature shortcomings, however, and any heavier burst of precipitation within the transition zone, especially where sleet is the dominate precipitation type at the time, could quickly change to heavy accumulating snow.

Further northward where precipitation falls as all snow conditions will deteriorate quickly as snow will gain in intensity during the morning hours. By afternoon a full-fledged snowstorm will be well on its way. Snowfall rates of one to two inches per hour thanks to a 700mb frontogenisis axis that will slide eastwards along the New York-Pennsylvania border into interior southern New England. Only limiting factor to seeing some really impressive accumulations are temperatures in the snow growth zone will not be optimal, leading to lower snow:liquid ratios around 10-12 to 1. None-the-less, snow amounts of 6 to 12 inches due to three quarters of an inch to an inch of QPF. Further north precipitation amounts will be less as best moisture and lift move by to the south, but prime temperatures in the snow growth region will lead to higher snow:liquid ratios, around 15-18 to 1. Snowfall here will average from 4 to 8 inches from north-central New York to the Capitol District into northern Massachusetts, southern New Hampshire and southern Vermont. Northern New York eastwards into southern Maine snowfall will generally be under 3 inches.

Northern New England should escape the snow from this system as high pressure remains in control with partly cloudy skies.

Temperatures will range from the teens over northern New York and northern New England, to the 20's over much of the rest of the interior. Along the coastal plain from New York City south and southeastern/southwestern Pennsylvania temperatures will reach into the 30's.


Snowfall through Friday



Low pressure moves offshore tonight with steady snow exiting the Northeast during the evening hours. Snow showers and freezing drizzle will be left in its wake along with a heafty accumulation of snow. There will be some enhancement of the snow showers around the Great Lakes where a few inches of accumulation can be expected in the snow belts. Otherwise expect mostly cloudy skies with a light westerly breeze. Temperatures will drop around 10 degrees from daily highs.

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Upper trough and surface cold front pulls through the Northest on Friday with snow showers for the interior. Enhancement around the lakes and in upslope areas of northern New York and northern New England could deposit a couple of inches of snow. Skies will be mostly cloudy over the interior with partly cloudy skies along the coastal plain. By mid-afternoon clouds will begin to decrease in coverage as dry air advects into the area in front of a building area of high pressure. Temperatures will reach into the low 40's along the coastal plain extending up to the New York City metro area. The southern half of Pennsylvania eastward into southern New England will see highs in the 30's. Further north over the interior 20's will be common with teens over the higher terrain of northern New England. These readings will be near normal along the coast and southern areas to around 5 to 10 degrees below normal over northern areas.


Any lingering snow showers end Friday night as high pressure noses its way into the Northeast. Clear skies and calm winds with fresh deep snow pack will allow for temperatures to plummet. Single digits and teens will be common over most of the interior with below zero readings commong over the higher elevations of northern New York and New England. Temperatures along the coastline from the New York City area south will fall into the low to mid 20's.

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**Major Nor'easter becoming more likely this weekend**

Saturday will start fair and very cold with clouds spreading into the Northeast from the southwest during the morning hours, eventually spreading over most of the Northeast by the afternoon. Snow will start to fall over southern Pennsylvania after noon, making steady progress northward. Temperatures will be close to 10 degrees below normal.

By Saturday the storm really gets cranking with snow quickly overspreading the Northeast. Snow will change to sleet and freezing rain over southern Pennsylvania and central/southern New Jersey as warmer air aloft moves into the southern portions of the region. Over northern Pennsylvania and New York State snow will be falling, heavy at times. Over 6 inches of snow is possible by daybreak. Further northward into northern New York and eastwards into central/southern New England snow will move into after midnight with accumulations of just a couple of inches by morning. Northern New England will remain dry. Temperatures will be average close to 5-10 degrees below normal north, and close to average south.


Storm continues into the day on Sunday with heavy snows across the far interior and coastal rain. From 25-75 miles inland will exist a transition zone of sleet and freezing rain. Significant accumulations of snow will fall over the interior of the Northeast with amounts over a foot possible during the day on Sunday. Closer to the coast sleet accumulations of an inch or two could fall as well as areas that could receive a 1/4 to 1/2 inch glazing of freezing rain. Winds will begin to howl as low pressure bombs near Long Island and move to a position just east of Cape Cod by late in the afternoon. Surf will increase along the coast and the possibility of coastal flooding and overwash will be of concern. Along the coast 1 to 2 inches of rainfall is also possible, leading to poor drainage/low-lying flooding, especially with fresh snow pack along the southern New England coast from Thursday's snow. Strom drains could be blocked by piles of snow, exacerbating and potential flooding issues.

Strong <980mb Nor'easter pulls into the Gulf of Maine Sunday night bringing the heavy snows into northern New England. Any rain/mixed precipitation will change to snow and end as snow showers and flurries along the coast. Wraparound moisture will bring scattered snow showers and light snowfall over the interior of New York with enhancement off the lakes as arctic air gets drawn into the Northeast behind the departing storm. Winds will be out of the northwest at 20-30mph and remain gusty throughout the night with widespread blowing and drifting snow. Temperatures will average around 5 degrees below normal over western sections, but close to normal over eastern sections with clouds and precipitation keeping temperatures up.

--------

Low pressure moves into the Canadian Maritimes on Monday leaving behind blustery conditions with upslope snow showers over the higher terrain of northern New England and lake-effect snows during the morning. By afternoon winds will decrease and terrain enhanced snow showers will be on the wane. Lake-effect snow will still persist, but will decrease in coverage and intensity as drier air advects into the area and flow goes anti-cylonic as high pressure builds into the region bringing the coldest airmass of the season with it. Temperatures will average 10-15 degrees below normal.

Zonal flow develops on Tuesday and Wednesday allowing for temperatures to moderate over the Northeast, although they will remain below seasonal norms.

Northern stream trough could appraoch by Thursday spreading snow showers back into the region with the most coverage over the north country.



__________________________________________________________

Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar

___________________________________________________________


Current Northeast Snowcover

Northeast Snowcover


MODIS Rapid Response satellite photo of Northeast snow cover (12/06/2007)


___________________________________________________________

Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.

---------------------------

Great Lakes SST's 12/07/2007

Great Lakes SST's as of 12/07/2007.

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Fillipini's Pond conditions (Lake across street)

11/6: 42°F
11/9: 37°F
11/11: 33°F - 1st morning with grease ice on lake.
11/17: 33°F
11/22: 34°F
11/24: 32°F - patchy ice on lake this morning
11/25: 32°F - lake iced over completely, melting along the shores during the afternoon.
12/1: Patchy ice has been on the lake all week. Lake should freeeze over completely tonight.
12/3: Lake is frozen over and covered with snow. Thickness measurements starting soon.

___________________________________________________________



December Daily Weather Statistics

Date___________Hi/Lo____Precip___Sun___Snow____(Snowdepth)

December 1st - 28°F/11°F....Trace....80%..Trace..(0")
December 2nd - 30°F/12°F....0.32"....0%...3.8"...(3")
December 3rd - 36°F/22°F....0.43"....10%..1.8"...(3")
December 4th - 22°F/18°F....0.03"....10%..0.6"...(4")
December 5th - 21°F/14°F....0.02"....0%...0.3"...(4")
December 6th - 28°F/9°F.....0.00"....95%..0.0"...(3")
December 7th - 25°F/9°F.....0.06"....10%..0.9"...(4")
December 8th - 36°F/24°F....0.00"....25%..0.0"...(3")
December 9th - 30°F/23°F....0.24"....0%...0.0"...(3")
December 10th - 34°F/27°F....0.11"....0%..0.0"...(3")
December 11th - 32°F/19°F....0.17"....35%..0.0"...(2")
December 12th - 41°F/27°F....0.14"....50%..Trace..(2")


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Updated: 4:28 PM GMT on December 13, 2007

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Two significant snowstorms upcoming

By: sullivanweather, 2:37 PM GMT on December 12, 2007

Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings


__________________________________________________________


Regional Forecast


A front sweeping through the Northeast this Wednesday morning will bring clearing skies and cooling temperatures with high pressure briefly building into the region this evening. The pesky stationary front that has been affecting the weather over the Northeast for the last 5 days sends one more area of low pressure towards the regin Thursday, bringing significant snows inland with a mix or rain along the coast. This system moves offshore Thursday night with high pressure building back into the region for Friday. As quickly as one low moves away another will already be in its formative stages over the Four Corners region pulling eastwards into Texas. This storm could have a possible tropical connection as moisture from Olga could be harnessed as it moves through the Guls Coast States to the southern Appalachians on Saturday. This low will then become a rather significant Nor'easter by Saturday night and Sunday, producing heavy snow across the interior and heavy rain along the coast. High winds and coastal flooding could also accompany this low pressure as it bombs out near Long Island. This low will rapidly move into the Canadian Maritimes leaving windy conditions with lake-effect snows and a blast of arctic air in its wake. Sprawling high pressure builds into the Northeast the beginning of next week with a moderating trend possible by the middle to latter part of next week.

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Low pressure is pulling away from the Northeast this Wednesday morning dragging a cold front through the area and drying things out. Most of the precipitation over the Northeast will end by noon. Skies will gradually clear as the day progresses as dry air advects into the region ahead of a building area of high pressure. Temperaturs will hold steady or slowly fall during the day as strong cold air advection invades the Northeast on a northwesterly breeze, which could become quite gusty around the noon hour before winds diminish towards dusk.


High pressure settles over the region tonight making for ideal radiational cooling conditions during the evening before clouds begin to approach from the southwest ahead of the next weather-maker for Thursday. There's a chance that some precipitation could sneak into southern Pennsylvania before daybreak, most likely a light mix of rain/sleet and snow which will be elevation dependent. Lows will drop into the single digits and teens across most of the interior with below zero readings possible across the higher elevations of northern New York and New England. Along the coastal plain and southwestern Pennsylvania lows will fall back into the 20's to near 30°F.

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Low pressure over the Tennessee Valley will move rapidly northeastward to just south of the Mason-Dixon line during the morning hours on Thursday spreading a shield of precipitation over the southern half of the Northeast. North of an Altoona-Harrisburg-Trenton line precipitation will be mainly in the form of snow with a rain or a mix of snow, sleet and rain to the south. Along the immediate coastal areas from central New Jersey south precipitation will mainly be in the form of rain. As the day progresses snow will gradually overspread much of the Northeast and could come down heavy at times from central Pennsylvania into southern New England. Jet at 850mb is 50-55kts moving right into a very tight baroclinic zone (850mb temps around +9°C near Washington, DC and near 0°C at Philadelphia) which should give rise to an area of moderate to heavy precipitation. 700mb frontogenisis axis sets up over the interior from northeast Pennsylvania to northwest Connecticut. Both of these areas stand the best chance at seeing greater than a half inch QPF. From the Poconos to the southern Catskills and the hills of northwest Connecticut should see snow totals of over 6 inches with some localized areas seeing as much as 10" of snow. Along the coast it'll be a tough call as precipitation type will most likely be determined by precipitation rates. By evening all areas should go over to snow as a potent 500mb vortmax rockets through the area. Low pressure will be offshore with winds turning to the north, heights will crash and UVM should be enough for the changeover to occur. Western/north-central New York eastwards into Vermont, New Hampshire and southern Maine will be on the northern fringes of the snow and stand to pick up a light accumulation, mainly under 3 inches. The Capitol District of New York into central New England could see a little bit more, perhaps 3 to 5 inches. Northern Maine should stay high and dry with most o the precipitation sliding by to the south. Temperatures will be running 5 to 10 degrees below seasonal averages.

Snow will taper to snow showers during the evening and end by midnight along the coast. Further inland an upper level trough will still have to swing through as a low pressure in the northern branch slowly rotates into the Northeast. A weak trough between this low and the one moving offshore will finally spread snow showers into northern New England. Amounts will only range from an inch to two inches over the higher elevations of northern New York and New England. Downwind of the Great Lakes there will be some lake enhanced snow showers as well with several inches of acumulation here. Low will continue to be some 5-10 degrees below normal.


Winter storm expectations for Thursday-Thursday night



----------

Rest of forecast will stay the same for now. Not enough time this morning to make any changes and nothing drastically different in generalities from yesterday.

One thing I did want to mention before I take off. Models have been very consistant in showing whatever is left of Olga becoming absorbed into the developing low pressure system over the Southeast that will eventually become our Nor'easter. It'll be very interesting to see how these two systems interact as QPF can be enhanced by some 10-20% over what they might otherwise be.

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Clipper low moves north of the area on Friday bringing a surface trough through the region. Upper trough will still be draped over the region and sufficient synoptic moisture will be in place for numerous snow showers to break out during the afternoon in addition to the ongoing lake effect. Any accumulations away from the lakes will generally be an inch or less, with 3-6 inches possible over the snow belt regions. Skies will be mostly cloudy with cold pool aloft that will make for an unstable environment leading to stratocumulus development down to the coast. Temperatures one again will average around 5-10 degrees below normal.


High pressure starts to build into the Northeast on Friday night. Lake effect/upslope snow showers will continue for most of the night but wane in intensity/coverage as drier air advects into the region from the north and west. Away from the higher terrain/lakes clouds will decrease in coverage leading to mostly clear skies by after midnight. Overnight lows will average 5-10 degrees below normal.

----------------

**The potential for a major Nor'easter exists this weekend with heavy inland snows, rain along the coast along with some minor to moderate coastal flooding**

The relative calm before the storm arrives Saturday morning in the form of cold Canadian high pressure cresting over the region, shutting down the upslope/lake-effect snow showers. Skies will be mostly clear during the morning with a very cold start. Temperatures will be in the single digits and teens to start the day over a good portion of the interior Northeast. High clouds will already be streaming into southern sections of the region as a strom begins to organize itself over the Southeastern United States. Snow will start to break out during the afternoon over southern Pennsylvania and central/southern New Jersey with rain possible along the immediate coast. Temperatures will be some 5-10 degrees below average.


Details are sketchy from this point on as upper level support reaches the east side of the Appalachian Mountains Saturday night spawning low pressure near Tidewater that will rapidly intensify as it moves up along the coast. Models prog a 970-980mb low pressure to be located near Long Island by Sunday morning with very heavy snows inland and heavy rains along the coast as warm maritime air floods into this area. Winds will pick up out of the Northeast and low rapidly deepens and pressure gradient between low pressure near Long Island and high pressure over the Canadian Maritimes increases.

Major concerns with this powerhouse of a storm will be the following:

·Heavy inland snows of 1-2 feet possible with near blizzard conditions during the heights of the storm and widespread blowing and drifting snow after the precipitation ends.

·Heavy coastal rain with poor drainage/low-lying flooding.

·Minor to moderate coastal flooding with strong onshore winds; minor wind damage possible along coast as well.

Nor'easter will wrap up over the Canadian Maritimes by late Sunday ngiht leaving upslope/lake-effect snows in its wake.

---------

Stong Canadian high pressure builds into the Northeast early next week bringing an end to the lake-effect snows and a continuation of temperatures 5-10 degrees below normal. Next trough appraoches by the middle of next week with chances for rain south/along the coast and snow north.






__________________________________________________________

Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar

___________________________________________________________


Current Northeast Snowcover

Northeast Snowcover


MODIS Rapid Response satellite photo of Northeast snow cover (12/06/2007)


___________________________________________________________

Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.

---------------------------

Great Lakes SST's 12/07/2007

Great Lakes SST's as of 12/07/2007.

-------

Fillipini's Pond conditions (Lake across street)

11/6: 42°F
11/9: 37°F
11/11: 33°F - 1st morning with grease ice on lake.
11/17: 33°F
11/22: 34°F
11/24: 32°F - patchy ice on lake this morning
11/25: 32°F - lake iced over completely, melting along the shores during the afternoon.
12/1: Patchy ice has been on the lake all week. Lake should freeeze over completely tonight.
12/3: Lake is frozen over and covered with snow. Thickness measurements starting soon.

___________________________________________________________



December Daily Weather Statistics

Date___________Hi/Lo____Precip___Sun___Snow____(Snowdepth)

December 1st - 28°F/11°F....Trace....80%..Trace..(0")
December 2nd - 30°F/12°F....0.32"....0%...3.8"...(3")
December 3rd - 36°F/22°F....0.43"....10%..1.8"...(3")
December 4th - 22°F/18°F....0.03"....10%..0.6"...(4")
December 5th - 21°F/14°F....0.02"....0%...0.3"...(4")
December 6th - 28°F/9°F.....0.00"....95%..0.0"...(3")
December 7th - 25°F/9°F.....0.06"....10%..0.9"...(4")
December 8th - 36°F/24°F....0.00"....25%..0.0"...(3")
December 9th - 30°F/23°F....0.24"....0%...0.0"...(3")
December 10th - 34°F/27°F....0.11"....0%..0.0"...(3")
December 11th - 32°F/19°F....0.17"....35%..0.0"...(2")


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Updated: 4:55 PM GMT on December 12, 2007

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Two modest storms and a potential monster

By: sullivanweather, 4:13 PM GMT on December 11, 2007

Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings


__________________________________________________________


Regional Forecast

The very active pattern will continue in the Northeast over the next week with three more storms on the horizon. Each one worse than the one previous potentially culminating in a major Nor'easter this weekend.

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Clouds will quickly move into initially clear skies this Tuesday with precipitation beginning during the late morning over western New York and rapidly spreading eastwards to western New England by dusk. Precipitation riding along the pesky stationary front now returning northward as a warm front. Over northern New York and northwestern New England precipitation will fall in the form of snow with an inch or two by dusk expected. Just to the south over north-central New York more of a mixture of snow, sleet and rain is expected with little if any snow accumulation. Even further south temperatures should be safely above freezing both at the surface and aloft making for just light rain. Temperatures will rise into the 40's across most of the southern half of the region, with 50's over southern New Jersey. From central New York eastwards into central New England highs will make it into the 30's. North of here 20's are expected over northern New York into northern New England.


As bulk of precipitation moves into the Northeast Tuesday night, a northern stream trough will start to drop into the region dragging a cold frontal boundary with it. Snow will continue over northern New York, northern two thirds of Vermont and New Hampshire and the State of Maine with light to moderate accumulations. To the immediate south over north-central/east-central New York into southern Vermont, southern New Hampshire and northern Massachusetts precipitation types will fluctuate during the night, intially starting as a mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain changing to rain during the evening as warm air is drawn northwards ahead of cold front. After the cold front drops south of here precipitation will likely change back to freezing rain then snow as the entire column cools below freezing towards daybreak. To the south most of the precipitation will fall in the form of rain, with some possible changeover to freezing rain towards daybreak over south-central New York and northern Pennsylvania. Extreme southern Pennsylvania and southern New Jersey may escape precipitation totally during the overnight. Temperatures will hold steady over northern New York and New England in the 20's during the evening then drop towards daybreak into the teens as cold front blows through the area. Over central New York into central New England temperatures will rise to slightly above freezing during the evening then fall back below freezing by daybreak as cold front sweeps through. Further south temperatures will rise into the 40's with 50's along the coastal plain before front comes through after midnight dropping temperatures back into the 30's and 40's by daybreak.


Tues-Wed storm impacts

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Precipitation drops into the southern half of the region Wednesday morning, tapering as it does so. Rain will end before noon, perhaps as a bit of sleet or snow on the northern fringes of the precipitation shield over northern Pennsylvania east into southern New England. Some snow showers will exist over northern Maine during the morning also but this will taper off before noon as well. Lake-effect will get going as well, but with limited moisture and flow turning anti-cyclonic amounts should be minor. High pressure builds into the region during the afternoon with a brisk northwesterly wind and temperatures slowly falling. Highs will be early in the day, most likely in the early morning hours for most folks. Temperatures will fall into the teens over northern New York and New England. Central New York and central New England will fall into the 20's. The southern half of the region will fall into the 30's.


High pressure crests over the region Wednesday night with clearing skies and light winds making for ideal radiational cooling conditions. Very cold airmass overhead will lead to temperatures falling into the single digits, even below zero over nothern New York and New England. Normally colder places, such as Saranac Lake could drop to -15°F. Single digits will even dip down into the normally colder locations in central New York and New England. Elsewhere across the interior temperatures will drop into the teens with 20's along the coastal plain from the New York City metro area south. Clouds will begin to move into the southern half of the region after midnight as the next system quickly approaches from the southwest. Some light precipitation could even make it into southwestern Pennsylvania before daybreak as light rain or a mix.

---------


Clouds quickly overspread the Northeast on Thursday with precipitation not far behind. Over southern Pennsylvania and southern New Jersey most of the precipitation will fall as a mix, or rain. As one heads towards the north precipitation will fall primarily in the form of snow. This snow could fall heavy at times from central/northern Pennsylvania eastwards into interior southern New England including northern New Jersey and southeastern New York State. A 40-50kt low level jet ahead of this low feeding into a very tight baroclinic zone and an impressive 500mb vortmax swinging through the Northeast will promote snowfall rates of up to an inch an hour for several hours as there will be sifficient moisture in place for all this lift. Over central/northern New York into central New England snow amounts will be lighter with as moisture will not be as deep and best lift slides by to the south. Over northern New England it will be partly to mostly cloudy as bulk of precipitation never makes it this far north due to confluent flow and dry surface high pressure. Southern Pennsylvania into central and southern New Jersey, including the New York City metro area and Long Island precipitation will fall primarily as rain, but a slight shift in track to the south could allow for more snowfall in these areas and less up north. Temperatures will average 5-10 degrees below normal area wide.


Low pulls offshore Thursday night bringing a majority of the precipitation with it. Along coastal area precipitation could end as snow showers as cold air filters into the region behind the low, but by that time, most of the precipitation will have ended. Lake-effect snows will begin over upstate New York and western Pennsylvania with other less numerous snow showers scattered throughout the region as low moving offshore is still linked with a trough to a clipper like low pressure center over the upper Great Lakes. Mostly cloudy skies throughout the region will prevent temperatures from falling far from daily highs, dropping only 5-10 degrees to near normal lows for mid-December.

Preliminary outlook for Thursday-Thursday night


Clipper low moves north of the area on Friday bringing a surface trough through the region. Upper trough will still be draped over the region and sufficient synoptic moisture will be in place for numerous snow showers to break out during the afternoon in addition to the ongoing lake effect. Any accumulations away from the lakes will generally be an inch or less, with 3-6 inches possible over the snow belt regions. Skies will be mostly cloudy with cold pool aloft that will make for an unstable environment leading to stratocumulus development down to the coast. Temperatures one again will average around 5-10 degrees below normal.


High pressure starts to build into the Northeast on Friday night. Lake effect/upslope snow showers will continue for most of the night but wane in intensity/coverage as drier air advects into the region from the north and west. Away from the higher terrain/lakes clouds will decrease in coverage leading to mostly clear skies by after midnight. Overnight lows will average 5-10 degrees below normal.

----------------

**The potential for a major Nor'easter exists this weekend with heavy inland snows, rain along the coast along with some minor to moderate coastal flooding**

The relative calm before the storm arrives Saturday morning in the form of cold Canadian high pressure cresting over the region, shutting down the upslope/lake-effect snow showers. Skies will be mostly clear during the morning with a very cold start. Temperatures will be in the single digits and teens to start the day over a good portion of the interior Northeast. High clouds will already be streaming into southern sections of the region as a strom begins to organize itself over the Southeastern United States. Snow will start to break out during the afternoon over southern Pennsylvania and central/southern New Jersey with rain possible along the immediate coast. Temperatures will be some 5-10 degrees below average.


Details are sketchy from this point on as upper level support reaches the east side of the Appalachian Mountains Saturday night spawning low pressure near Tidewater that will rapidly intensify as it moves up along the coast. Models prog a 970-980mb low pressure to be located near Long Island by Sunday morning with very heavy snows inland and heavy rains along the coast as warm maritime air floods into this area. Winds will pick up out of the Northeast and low rapidly deepens and pressure gradient between low pressure near Long Island and high pressure over the Canadian Maritimes increases.

Major concerns with this powerhouse of a storm will be the following:

·Heavy inland snows of 1-2 feet possible with near blizzard conditions during the heights of the storm and widespread blowing and drifting snow after the precipitation ends.

·Heavy coastal rain with poor drainage/low-lying flooding.

·Minor to moderate coastal flooding with strong onshore winds; minor wind damage possible along coast as well.

Nor'easter will wrap up over the Canadian Maritimes by late Sunday ngiht leaving upslope/lake-effect snows in its wake.

---------

Stong Canadian high pressure builds into the Northeast early next week bringing an end to the lake-effect snows and a continuation of temperatures 5-10 degrees below normal. Next trough appraoches by the middle of next week with chances for rain south/along the coast and snow north.



__________________________________________________________

Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar

___________________________________________________________


Current Northeast Snowcover

Northeast Snowcover


MODIS Rapid Response satellite photo of Northeast snow cover (12/06/2007)


___________________________________________________________

Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.

---------------------------

Great Lakes SST's 12/07/2007

Great Lakes SST's as of 12/07/2007.

-------

Fillipini's Pond conditions (Lake across street)

11/6: 42°F
11/9: 37°F
11/11: 33°F - 1st morning with grease ice on lake.
11/17: 33°F
11/22: 34°F
11/24: 32°F - patchy ice on lake this morning
11/25: 32°F - lake iced over completely, melting along the shores during the afternoon.
12/1: Patchy ice has been on the lake all week. Lake should freeeze over completely tonight.
12/3: Lake is frozen over and covered with snow. Thickness measurements starting soon.

___________________________________________________________



December Daily Weather Statistics

Date___________Hi/Lo____Precip___Sun___Snow____(Snowdepth)

December 1st - 28°F/11°F....Trace....80%..Trace..(0")
December 2nd - 30°F/12°F....0.32"....0%...3.8"...(3")
December 3rd - 36°F/22°F....0.43"....10%..1.8"...(3")
December 4th - 22°F/18°F....0.03"....10%..0.6"...(4")
December 5th - 21°F/14°F....0.02"....0%...0.3"...(4")
December 6th - 28°F/9°F.....0.00"....95%..0.0"...(3")
December 7th - 25°F/9°F.....0.06"....10%..0.9"...(4")
December 8th - 36°F/24°F....0.00"....25%..0.0"...(3")
December 9th - 30°F/23°F....0.24"....0%...0.0"...(3")
December 10th - 34°F/27°F....0.11"....0%..0.0"...(3")


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Updated: 7:34 PM GMT on December 11, 2007

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More winter weather ahead.

By: sullivanweather, 12:28 PM GMT on December 10, 2007

Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings


__________________________________________________________


Regional Forecast


Low pressure is moving offshore this Monday morning with light precipitation over the Northeast. High pressure briefly dries out the region Monday night before the next in a series of low pressure centers moves towards the region. Models have come into better clarity this morning in their handling of the two upcoming waves of low pressure for Tuesday night and Thursday. Trends have been for a warmer scenario with the first system Tuesday night and colder one with the second system for Thursday. Upper trough swings through the Northeast Friday and early Saturday with lake effect/upslope snow showers and below normal temeratures. High pressure builds in for the remainder of the weekend drying things out but with continued below normal temperatures. Next trough approaches early next week with chances for snow/rain.

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Patchy freezing drizzle and areas of light snow exist over the interior of the Northeast this morning as well as a pocket of heavier rainfall over southern New Jersey. Most of this precipitation will end by noon leaving cloudy skies and foggy conditions for much of the Northeast. Across northern Pennsylvania and central New York eastward to southern/central New England a modest amount of freezing rain fell during the overnight that will make for very tricky travel early this morning before temperatures climb above freezing late this morning, however, some of the higher elevations in the Catskills and Berkshires could stay below freezing all day. Over northern New England skies will become partly cloudy this afternoon as they also have escaped this first wintry blast of the week. Very cold air remains over extreme northern New England as well with highs today only near 20°F. From northern New York into the rest of northern New England highs will be in the mid 20's. Further south acorss central New York into central New England highs will be in the low to mid 30's. Northern Pennsylvania eastwards into northern New Jersey, southeastern New York and southern New England highs will make it into the upper 30's, melting much of the overnight ice accretion. Over the southern third of the Northeast highs will make it into the 40's with low 50's possible over southern New Jersey.


High pressure moves overhead tonight but clouds will continue to stream overhead as warm advection continues unabated over the region. Only the northern third of the region might see a less than 50% cloud coverage overnight. There could be some patchy drizzle or fog over the southern half of the region. This could be especially hazardous over inland sections of Pennsylvania, New York and southern New England where temperatures will drop back below freezing. Lows will fall into the teens over northern New York and New England with some single digits possible over northern Maine where snow cover is deep and best chance to clear out lies. Elsewhere over the interior of the Northeast temperatures will drop into the mid 20's to near freezing. Along the coastal plain from southern New England south and across southern Pennsylvania lows will stay above freezing from the mid 30's to the low 40's.

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Minor forecast challenges Tuesday as another wave of low pressure moves into the region during the afternoon. Phasing of a northern stream disturbance with the southern stream low will build heights over the Northeast before the passage of this system. Hence this low is expected to track about 100 miles further north than Sunday's night's system, with the transition zone likely moving north by that same distance. A good portion of the Northeast interior from the Catskill mountains north and east will be in that 31-34 degree range with 5-8 degree dewpoint depressions as the precipitation starts. This could lead to a period of sleet and/or freezing rain at the onset, especially given the very cold ground. South and west of here temperatures will have warmed sufficiently above freezing to preclude any icing problems, but isolated pockets of freezing rain could still exist. Especially in sheltered valleys and northfacing hillsides in shady areas. Highs will make it into the mid 20's over northern New York into central/northern New England. Over east-central New York is where the problem area lies as temperatures here will be near freezing and a degree or two in either direction will make a huge difference once precipitation moves in. Over west-central/southeastern New York, northeastern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey and interior southern New England temperatures will be in the mid to upper 30's. South of here and along the coast of southern New England highs will make it into the 40's with 50's over southern New Jersey and possibly southwestern Pennsylvania.


Temperatures will climb a few degrees during the evening hours as a good push of warm air penetrates pretty far into the interior of the Northeast. This will likely change most freezing rain and sleet to rain over east-central New York and push the transition zone into northern New York eastward to southern Maine. Over northern Maine a period of light to moderate snow should fall resulting in 2-4" accumulations. To the south mainly light rain or drizzle will fall as deep moisture passes off to the north. Low moves off into Gulf of St.Lawrence by daybreak dragging a cold front through the Northeast, bringing colder air back into the area with most places over the interior dropping back below freezing by morning.


Some differences in the models on Wednesday as a secondary surge of moisture could try to make it into the southern half of the Northeast. This area of precipitation will be on a weakening trend as it loses it's upper support and will be moving into a developing area of confluence over the Northeast. Dry air advecting into the region behind the cold front will eat away at the leading edge of precipitation as well. None-the-less, enough moisture should make it into the area for some light snow/sleet on the northern fringes with showers south. Over northern New York and New England skies will be on a clearing trend with high pressure nosing down into the region. Temperatures behind this front should hold steady or slowly drop during the day on Wednesday as air behind front is quite a bit colder than the airmass it is deplacing (850mb temps drop from +5°C to -10°C in only 12-14 hours from central New York to southern New England as an example.)


High pressure settles over the Northeast Wednesday night with mostly clear skies for the northern half of the region and mostly cloudy skies over the souther half as the front will still be close by. A stray shower or two is possible over the extreme southern portions of the region as well. Temperatures will some 5-10 degrees below normal over northern New England with near normal low over the central part of the region and slightly above normal lows south with clouds sticking around.

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Next system of concern moves into the Northeast on Thursday as another low pressure wave develops along the front near the Ozarks and moves into the central Appalachians. With cold high pressure over the Northeast a snowier scenario could present itself. Without hitting the details too hard, cold air in place in front of the storm and impressive UVM could keep the column cold enough for snow throughout across the interior of the Northeast. From 25-75 miles inland there should be a transition zone that will flucture north-south. Northwards with the inital push of warm advection, then southwards once coastal re-development occures/dynamics pulls through. This last system has impressive moisture and QPF of over an inch are possible. Where precipitation stays all snow significant accumulations are likely. Most of the significant precipitation will stay south of northern New England.

Storm pulls offshore Thursday night with precipitation ending from west to east.

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Upper trough swings through the Northeast on Friday along with an arctic front which should bring snow showers throughout the region. Lake-effect kicks into gear as well, putting down some significant snows in the snow belts.

High pressure begins to build over the region for the weekend, shutting down the lake-effect and bringing dry conditions for a change. Temperatures will once again average 5-10 degrees below normal. There are indications of a coastal/oceanic storm for the 2nd half of the weekend, but at this point in time, any development appears to be offshore.

The next trough approaches by early next week with snow showers across the north and rain showers south and along the coast. Long range models do show a moderating trend by the middle to late next week, but this is still 10 days out and a lot can change between now and then.




__________________________________________________________

Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar

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Current Northeast Snowcover

Northeast Snowcover


MODIS Rapid Response satellite photo of Northeast snow cover (12/06/2007)


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Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.

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Great Lakes SST's 12/07/2007

Great Lakes SST's as of 12/07/2007.

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Fillipini's Pond conditions (Lake across street)

11/6: 42°F
11/9: 37°F
11/11: 33°F - 1st morning with grease ice on lake.
11/17: 33°F
11/22: 34°F
11/24: 32°F - patchy ice on lake this morning
11/25: 32°F - lake iced over completely, melting along the shores during the afternoon.
12/1: Patchy ice has been on the lake all week. Lake should freeeze over completely tonight.
12/3: Lake is frozen over and covered with snow. Thickness measurements starting soon.

___________________________________________________________



December Daily Weather Statistics

Date___________Hi/Lo____Precip___Sun___Snow____(Snowdepth)

December 1st - 28°F/11°F....Trace....80%..Trace..(0")
December 2nd - 30°F/12°F....0.32"....0%...3.8"...(3")
December 3rd - 36°F/22°F....0.43"....10%..1.8"...(3")
December 4th - 22°F/18°F....0.03"....10%..0.6"...(4")
December 5th - 21°F/14°F....0.02"....0%...0.3"...(4")
December 6th - 28°F/9°F.....0.00"....95%..0.0"...(3")
December 7th - 25°F/9°F.....0.06"....10%..0.9"...(4")
December 8th - 36°F/24°F....0.00"....25%..0.0"...(3")
December 9th - 30°F/23°F....0.24"....0%...0.0"...(3")



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Updated: 2:30 PM GMT on December 10, 2007

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One - Two - Three Ice storms for the Northeast?

By: sullivanweather, 11:31 AM GMT on December 08, 2007

Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings


__________________________________________________________


Regional Forecast

A continuation of the very active pattern for much of the Northeast this week as several waves of low pressure move along a stationary frontal boundary whose mean position will lie east-west from southern Pennsylvania to central New Jersey. Fifty to one hundred miles north of this boundary a majority of the precipitation associated with these areas of low pressure will fall in frozen/freezing form. Closer to the frontal boundary precipitation types will switch back and forth from frozen/freezing to liquid with the passage of each disturbance. To the south expect mainly rain while to the far north over northern New England, high pressure will surpress much of the precipitation to the south of the area. Late next week a longwave trough tries to push all this mess offshore with much colder temperatures moving back into the Northeast.

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A weak disturbance is sliding to the south of the region early this Saturday morning providing some showers across southeastern Pennsylvania and southern New Jersey. There could be isolated pockets of freezing rain or light snow as well, but most of the precipitation is falling as rain. This system moves quickly offshore before noon as a northern stream shortwave drops a rather potent cold front into the Northeast. There's very little moisture for this front to work with and only widely scattered snow showers are expected. Clouds will decrease in coverage during the afternoon as drier air filters into the region. High's will climb into the 40's over the southern two thirds of Pennsylvania, most of New Jersey, southeastern New York and southern New England. Over the northern third of Pennsylvania, central New York and central New England highs should climb above freezing for the first time in several days, but likely remain in the 30's. Only northern New York and northern New England should remain below freezing today. Light winds will pick up out of the west under some cold air advection during the late morning and afternoon.

High pressure moves into the Northeast Saturday night allowing for temperatures to quickly drop during the evening as skies will be mostly clear and winds will become light. After midnight clouds begin to increase over western New York and Pennsylvania as low pressure starts to organize over Missouri and rocket east-northeastward along stationary front. Towards daybreak clouds will have overspread much of the southern two thirds of the Northeast with precipitation possibly breaking out over western sections as snow over New York and a mix or rain over Pennsylvania. Low temperatures will drop into the low 30's over southern Pennsylvania to central/southern New Jersey and along the immediate coast up to New York City. Over northern New York and central/northern New England temperatures will drop into the teens with perhaps some single digits possible over the higher elevations. In the middle from central New York and northern Pennsylvania over to southern New England lows will fall into the 20's.

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Precipitation will begin to overspread the southern half of the Northeast on Sunday as a wave of low pressure moves along the stationary boundary to a position near Columbus, OH by evening. With cold high pressure over the region feeding cold air into the Northeast at the surface and warmer/above freezing air moving in aloft a classic set-up for ice will ensue. To the north of the New York-Pennsylvania border precipitation will fall mainly in the form of snow and sleet while more of a mixture of freezing rain and sleet will fall to the south of the border across the northern half of Pennsylvania and southeastern New York. During the afternoon precipitation will move into southern/central New England as a mixture of snow and sleet that will transition to more freezing rain by evening. Snowfall accumulations of 1-3 inches over central New York are possible with ice accretions of up to 1/4" in the transition zone. Over northern New York and New England it should stay dry but clouds will be on the increase. Temperatures will climb into the 20's over much of the northern half of the region while to the immediate south temperatures will be near freezing from central/northern Pennsylvania over to southern New England, including northern New Jersey and inland southeastern New York. From southern Pennsylvania over to central/southern New Jersey and along the coast northward to the New York City metro area temperatures will likely climb above freezing with highs in the mid 30's to low 40's.

Sunday-Monday's storm



Low pressure moves across southern Pennsylvania Sunday night and offshore central New Jersey by Monday morning. Light snow and sleet will continue over north-central New York State into central New England with an inch or two of additional accumulation. The real mess will be developing over south-central New York and northern Pennsylvania eastward into interior southern New England as sleet, and more importantly, freezing rain will fall at varying intensities during the overnight. Here ice accretions of 1/4" to 1/2" are possible which could start to weigh down trees and power lines. The next tier to the south from central Pennsylvania into northern New Jersey and southeastern New York State precipitation will be in the form of freezing rain during the evening perhaps changing to plain rain overnight with isolated pockets of freezing rain in sheltered valleys. Icing problems will be less of an issue here but should create some slippery roadways if nothing else. Even further southwards precipitation will fall mainly in the form of rain. There could be isolated pockets of freezing rain during the evening, but with a warm surge of air pushing into these areas it should not last long into the evening before changing to plain rain. Northern New England will continue to evade most of this mess as high pressure holds firm, keeping precipitation south of this area. Overnight lows will occur early during the evening as temperatures hold steady or will rise a few degrees from Sunday's readings during the overnight in areas affected by precipitation. Over northern Maine thin cloud cover will prevent temperatures from dropping much, however they will fall during the overnight unlike their neighbors to the south.

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Much uncertainty exists in the Monday through Thursday time frame. First system will be pulling offshore to start the period, with brief ridging behind this impulse and a slight southward push of the frontal boundary over the southern portions of the region. From here, models have offered a wide range of solutions but here's what they tend to agree on:

There will be two systems.
Somewhere over the interior of the Northeast will see significant accumulations of ice.

Here's what they don't agree on:

Everything else... including timing, strength of each storm, northward push of warm air (both at the surface and aloft) and placement of high pressure.


The key player in all this will be the gyration of the polar vortex over Baffin Bay. Both Friday's and Sunday's low pressure system will develop into storm centers south of Greenland during the early to middle part of this upcoming week. Depending on which storm grabs most of the energy, the first, or the second, will be key. If the first does, it will help to hold the polar vortex further west, surpressing the storm track. If the second does, it will pull the vortex east, letting the storm track come north more. This will likely not be known until Monday and the models will grapple back and forth, I'm sure, between warm and cold solutions likely right up until the start of each event.

So keeping this part of the forecast vague for now, expect the first storm to move into the area on Tuesday, the second on Wednesday night and Thursday. There could be a break in the precipitation during the day on Wednesday, but even this is low confidence. The best chances for snow will be across the far north, close to the US-Canadian border. Interior New England and New York stand to the best chance at seeing a severe icing event. Places where it could go either way between a severe icing event or just a plain ol' rain storm are interior Pennsylvania eastwards into interior southern New England. Over southern Pennsylvania and along the coastal plain up to coastal southern New England enough warmth should push into these areas for mainly rain but should a colder solution verify, even these areas could get in on some ice as well. There will be little variation in diurnal mins and maxs as temperatures will likely be determined by positions of low pressure as they race through the region.

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After Thursday's system a longwave trough will become established over the eastern US with below normal temperatures and precipitation chances other than the usual lake-effect.


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Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar

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Current Northeast Snowcover

Northeast Snowcover


MODIS Rapid Response satellite photo of Northeast snow cover (12/06/2007)


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Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.

---------------------------

Great Lakes SST's 12/07/2007

Great Lakes SST's as of 12/07/2007.

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Fillipini's Pond conditions (Lake across street)

11/6: 42°F
11/9: 37°F
11/11: 33°F - 1st morning with grease ice on lake.
11/17: 33°F
11/22: 34°F
11/24: 32°F - patchy ice on lake this morning
11/25: 32°F - lake iced over completely, melting along the shores during the afternoon.
12/1: Patchy ice has been on the lake all week. Lake should freeeze over completely tonight.
12/3: Lake is frozen over and covered with snow. Thickness measurements starting soon.

___________________________________________________________



December Daily Weather Statistics

Date___________Hi/Lo____Precip___Sun___Snow____(Snowdepth)

December 1st - 28°F/11°F....Trace....80%..Trace..(0")
December 2nd - 30°F/12°F....0.32"....0%...3.8"...(3")
December 3rd - 36°F/22°F....0.43"....10%..1.8"...(3")
December 4th - 22°F/18°F....0.03"....10%..0.6"...(4")
December 5th - 21°F/14°F....0.02"....0%...0.3"...(4")
December 6th - 28°F/9°F.....0.00"....95%..0.0"...(3")
December 7th - 25°F/9°F.....0.06"....10%..0.9"...(4")
December 8th - 36°F/24°F....0.00"....25%..0.0"...(3")



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Updated: 4:39 PM GMT on December 09, 2007

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Active pattern on the way.

By: sullivanweather, 5:40 PM GMT on December 06, 2007

Snow totals from Wednesday's clipper

Delaware
--------

N. New Castle Co. ---- 4.0" *Rangerwillie1



Pennsylvania
------------


Dover ---------------- 6.0"
York ----------------- 5.5"
Bedford -------------- 5.5"
Hanover -------------- 5.1"
York Springs --------- 5.0"
Laurel Summit -------- 4.5"
Johnstown ------------ 4.0"
Somerset ------------- 3.8"
Mount Davis ---------- 3.0"
Wilcox --------------- 2.0"
Philadelphia Airport - 1.6"
Allentown Airport ---- 1.4"


New Jersey
----------

Atlantic City -------- 4.4"
Cape May ------------- 3.7"
Newport -------------- 3.5"
Millville ------------ 2.8"
Avalon --------------- 2.5"
Sussex --------------- 0.6"



Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings


__________________________________________________________


Regional Forecast

High pressure in control of the sensible weather on Thursday will give way to a weakening trough Friday with light precipitation expected. This frontal trough slides to the south of the region Friday night and stalls as several disturbances begin to trek along it this weekend and into next week. Surface high pressure centers to the northeast and northwest of this stationary trough will keep a supply of cold air on the north side of this front for wintry precipitation and mainly rain to the south. By Tuesday and Wednesday a stronger storm will develop on the frontal boundary and move towards the Northeast. This passage of this low will help to push the front southwards with colder air filtering into the region.

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High pressure will crest over the Northeast this Thursday afternoon bringing mostly clear skies and warmer temperatures, although they will still be around 5-8 degrees below normal. Some scattered lake effect snow continues to come off Lake Ontario on a westerly flow around the north side of the high pressure area. Areas around the Tug Hill Plateau could receive up to 6 additional inches of snowfall by this evening before tapering off as flow turns southwesterly.


Temperatures will drop off fairly quickly this evening with clear skies, light winds, and snowcover as the region will still be under the influence of high pressure. This high will move offshore by midnight as a trough approaches from the west. This weakening frontal trough will increase clouds over the western sections after midnight with some light snow showers developing by daybreak. Lows Thursday night will range from the single digits over much of northern New York and New England. Central/southern New England along with interior New York and Pennsylvania overnight lows will fall into the teens with 20's along the coastal plain. These temperatures continue to run 5-10 degrees below normal.

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A weakening frontal trough will move into the Northeast on Friday bringing some scattered snow showers along with it. Snow will begin over Pennsylvania and New York during the morning hours and reach into New England during the afternoon, despite a clear start to the day here. Along the coastal plain from New York City south snow could mix with and change to rain during the afternoon as boundary layer warms above freezing. Further north, especially over the higher terrain an inch or two of snow accumulation is possible but not much more as moisture is lacking with this system. High temperatures during the day on Friday will range from the low 20's across northern New York and New England, to the mid/upper 20's over the rest of interior New York and New England. From central Pennsylvania to southern New England highs will make it into the low 30's but likely stay below freezing. Western/southern Pennsylvania and along the coastal plain from New York City south will likely climb above freezing, but likely stay below 40°F.

Trough moves offshore Friday night with southern end of the trough stalling south of the region. Snow showers over Maine associated with the surface trough will end before midnight with an additional inch of accumulation possible. Skies will remain mostly cloudy over the region with upper trough axis still overhead. Over the higher terrain and downwind of the lakes some snow showers will persist into the overnight period, but any accumulations will be light. Temperatures will not fall far from afternoon highs with mostly cloudy skies and little change in airmass behind the surface trough. Winds will be light and out of the west.


A very complicated scenario for this weekend. Friday's frontal trough settles along the Mason-Dixon line by Saturday morning while at the same time a northern stream disturbance will skirt by to the north of the US-Canadian border. This northern stream disturbance will help to re-enforce the cold air over the Northeast as Canadian high pressure noses its way into the Northeast with the passage of this system. In terms of sensible weather on Saturday, a few snow showers could be expected over northern New England as vortmax associated with this northern stream disturbances moves across Maine during the afternoon. Some scattered lake-effect snow showers are possible as well, but any accumulations in these areas should be minimal. Over the southern third of the region clouds with rain/snow showers could dot the area as moisture riding up along the trough leftover from Friday remains close by. In the middle of these two areas it should remain dry, but mostly cloudy. Temperatures area-wide will average around 5 degrees below normal.

Models begin to diverge in their solutions Saturday night as GFS shows a wave of low pressure quickly approaching from the southwest along the frontal trough while NAM noses an area of high pressure into the Northeast, keeping the low pressure and its associated precipitation at bay. A compromise solution seems to be the best way to go here with scattered precipitation hanging around the stalled trough, but not as widespread a coverage as the GFS suggests. With cold air filtering in at lower levels with high pressure wedging down the east side of the Appalachians and warmer air moving in aloft, problems with icing could begin to develop as a sign of things to come. Further north high pressure will be in control with partly cloudy to mostly clear skies. Temperatures here will drop some 5-10 degrees below normal with decent radiational cooling conditions and cold airmass overhead. Further south, closer to the frontal bounday temperatures will be near normal with clouds and precipitation around.


By Sunday models are more consistant in moving wave of low pressure into the region, with the GFS still running about 6-9 hours faster with the leading edge of precipitation. High pressure will be centered over southern Ontario, providing a cold flow of air at the surface into the region as warmer air aloft continues to stream into the region. Overrunning precipitation will fall in all forms during the day on sunday with plain rain across the extreme south and along the Jersey Shore and Long Island. Further inland the situation becomes more complicated as a transition zone sets up from central Pennsylvania eastward the coastal plain into southern New England with light sleet and/or freezing rain. A bit further north over south-central New York into Central New England the entire column should be cold enough for primarily snow, although this too could mix with sleet and freezing rain. Northern New York and New England should stay precipitation free with high pressure just to the north. Temperatures will be in the 20's up north with mid to upper 30's across southern Pennsylvania and along the coast from southern New England south. Just inland of the coast temperatures will be near freezing, alowing for that messy mixture of precipitation type to fall. Even further inland from central New York over to central New England highs will only make it to the mid to upper 20's.

Bulk of precipitation from the wave of low pressure will move into the region Sunday night. Push of warmer air aloft ahead of this low will likely push the transition zone a bit further northward. The northern edge of the precipitation shield should change little as high pressure to the north remains anchored over southern Canada. Where snow falls a light to moderate accumulation is possible with modest accumulations of ice is possible within the transition zone. Over northern New York and New England it should remain dry still as strong high pressure and dry air will be too difficult to overcome. There will be quite a spread in temperatures from north to south as northern Maine should drop into the single digits while southern New Jersey could stay in the low 40's as warmer air floods into the region.

--------------

The Monday and Tuesday forecast is a coin toss as a stationary front will be draped over the southern half of the region with several waves of low pressure riding along it. High pressure to the north will keep cold air locked in at the surface, and once one heads far enough north, aloft as well. This will present a myriad of precipitation types that will fluctate northward and southward with the passage of each shortwave disturbance. Inland areas of the Northeast from central Pennsylvania to central New England could see significant icing problems as there could be several days of freezing rain. Precipitation is not expected to be terribly heavy during any given 6 hour time frame, but the persistance/duration of this freezing/frozen precipitation could lead to major probelms once one heads into Tuesday. Further to the north on the northern edge of the precipitation shield significant amounts of snow could fall. Again, not heavy amounts during any short-term period, but overall accumulations of snow could total up to a foot where precipitation falls primarily as snow. Even further north over extreme northern New England high pressure could actually keep most of the precipitation to the south as the area of high pressure will not give ground. By Tuesday night/Wednesday the last wave of low pressure on the front could be strong enough to surge enough moisture northward to provide this area with some precipitation but trends in the models thus far have been colder and further south with both the stationary front and the attendant areas of low pressure. Over the southern portions of the region plain rain is expected as of now. However, with models trending colder, icy precipitation cannot be ruled out. Temperatures will average below normal north, and slightly above normal south. In the middle temperatures should average close to normal with slightly below normal highs and slightly above normal lows as there will be very little diurnal change in temperatures due to clouds and precipitation.

The last in a series of low pressure waves will finally push stationary front offshore as a cold front on Wednesday as a longwave trough sets up over the eastern US again by mid to late week. Fair weather should return to the Northeast by Wednesday afternoon into Thursday as high pressure builds into the region with near to slightly below normal temperatures. Another northern stream disturbance/clipper low could approach by late in the week.


__________________________________________________________

Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar

___________________________________________________________


Current Northeast Snowcover

Northeast Snowcover


MODIS Rapid Response satellite photo of Northeast snow cover (12/06/2007)


___________________________________________________________

Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.

---------------------------

Great Lakes SST's 11/23/2007

Great Lakes SST's as of 11/23/2007.

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Fillipini's Pond conditions (Lake across street)

11/6: 42°F
11/9: 37°F
11/11: 33°F - 1st morning with grease ice on lake.
11/17: 33°F
11/22: 34°F
11/24: 32°F - patchy ice on lake this morning
11/25: 32°F - lake iced over completely, melting along the shores during the afternoon.
12/1: Patchy ice has been on the lake all week. Lake should freeeze over completely tonight.
12/3: Lake is frozen over and covered with snow. Thickness measurements starting soon.

___________________________________________________________



December Daily Weather Statistics

Date___________Hi/Lo____Precip___Sun___Snow____(Snowdepth)

December 1st - 28°F/11°F....Trace....80% Trace (0")
December 2nd - 30°F/12°F....0.32"....0% 3.8" (3")
December 3rd - 36°F/22°F....0.43"....10% 1.8" (3")
December 4th - 22°F/18°F....0.03"....10% 0.6" (4")
December 5th - 21°F/14°F....0.02"....0% 0.3" (4")
December 6th - 28°F/9°F.....0.00"....95% (3")



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Updated: 9:57 PM GMT on December 07, 2007

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November in review/Storm summary

By: sullivanweather, 4:44 PM GMT on December 04, 2007

Bethel, NY November Climate

November Daily Weather Statistics

Date___________Hi/Lo____Precip___Sun___Snow

November 1st - 53°F/38°F....0.00"....40%
November 2nd - 52°F/30°F....0.00"....90%
November 3rd - 51°F/35°F....0.00"....30%
November 4th - 48°F/36°F....0.00"....15%
November 5th - 52°F/28°F....0.23"....60%
November 6th - 45°F/36°F....0.26"....40% Trace
November 7th - 37°F/27°F....Trace....40% Trace
November 8th - 37°F/19°F....0.00"....60%
November 9th - 38°F/27°F....0.21"....0% 1.5"
November 10th - 37°F/26°F....0.26"....20% 3.1"
November 11th - 42°F/20°F....0.00"....95%
November 12th - 39°F/24°F....0.12"....0%
November 13th - 54°F/29°F....0.31"....80%
November 14th - 48°F/27°F....0.39"....5%
November 15th - 52°F/35°F....1.53"....0% Trace
November 16th - 37°F/27°F....0.02"....40% 0.1"
November 17th - 36°F/26°F....0.00"....20%
November 18th - 35°F/28°F....0.02"....0% 0.2"
November 19th - 33°F/28°F....0.18"....0% 2.6"
November 20th - 37°F/31°F....0.31"....0% Trace
November 21st - 48°F/37°F....0.02"....0%
November 22nd - 63°F/29°F....0.04"....30%
November 23rd - 31°F/18°F....Trace....75% Trace
November 24th - 32°F/15°F....0.00"....60%
November 25th - 44°F/18°F....0.08"....95% 0.2"
November 26th - 50°F/30°F....1.01"....0% 0.1"
Nevember 27th - 52°F/29°F....0.04"....70% Trace
November 28th - 37°F/27°F....Trace....85% Trace
November 29th - 44°F/28°F....0.02"....45% 0.2"
November 30th - 37°F/24°F....Trace....85% Trace


November 2007 average high: 43.36°F
November average mean high: 43.7°F
November 2007 high temperature departure: 0.34°F below normal

November 2007 average low: 25.66°F
November average mean low: 28.63°F
November 2007 low temperature departure: 2.97°F below normal


November 2007 mean temperature: 34.51°F
November normal mean: 36.16°F
November 2007 departure: 1.65°F below normal


November Highs/lows


-----------

Precipitation

November 2007 Precipitation - 5.05"

Precipitation days: 22
Measurable: 18

Bethel, NY precip - Nov '07

---------------

Snowfall

November 2007 Snowfall - 8.0"

Snow days: 16
Measurable: 8


_________________________________________________________

Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings


__________________________________________________________

Snow totals as of 11am

Maine
-----

Marshfield ------ 18"
Harrington ------ 17"
Topsfield ------- 16"
Millinocket ----- 12.5"
Frankfort ------- 12"
Houlton --------- 11"
Caribou --------- 10.4"
Agusta ---------- 9.5"
Portland -------- 8.5"
Gray ------------ 8.4"

*Litchfield ----- 8" (Bonsai's ob 8pm 12/3)

New Hampshire
-------------

Randolf --------- 12.8"
Madison --------- 11"
Concord --------- 7.1"
Keene ----------- 3"

__________________________

Lake-effect totals as of 11am

New York
--------

Warsaw ----------- 11"
Auburn ----------- 10.2"
Tully ------------ 9"
Syracuse --------- 8"
Perrysburg ------- 6"
Binghamton ------- 5.5"

*Snowspotter1923 - 8" (I need your location)
*Bethel ---------- 1.9" (that's me)


Pennsylvania
------------

Warren ---------- 10"

_________________________________________________________

Regional Forecast

**Active winter-like pattern to continue over the Northeast this week**

Nor'easter in finally pulling away from Maine but lake-effect snows will continue as cold northwest flow continues to pour over the Great Lakes. Lake effect will finally start to abate some as clipper low moves to the south of the region on Wednesday. This low should bring some snow showers to the southern half of the region which could mix with rain along the immediate coast. Clipper rockets off Tidewater Wednesday night with some lake snows in its wake as flow becomes northwesterly once again. High pressure builds in on Thursday but quickly gives way to approching trough for Friday. This weak disturbance could provide some snow showers across the north with a mix south. Frontal boundary associated with this trough moves to a position near the Mason-Dixon line as another low approaches from the Plains for Sunday.

------------

Snow will be on the wane tonight across the Northeast as low pressure and upper trough begin to pull away from the region. Scattered snow showers over the State of Maine will gradually diminish to flurries by midnight. Over New York and Pennsylvania lake effect snow will continue but weaken during the overnight as atmosphere dries and inversions lower. Winds will also back towards the west, lifting bands towards the north as the night progresses. An additional 2-4 inches of snow appears likely over northwestern Pennsylvania, southwestern/north-central New York. Elsewhere across the Northeast it will be partly to mostly cloudy with scattered flurries. Winds will die down during the evening to near 10mph, however, with temperatures in the teens and 20's it will feel quite brisk.

A clipper low slides by to the south of the region on Wednesday. Clouds will already have moved into the region in advance of the system by daybreak with light snow developing over western Pennsylvania slightly thereafter and spreading eastward very qucikly. Steady snow should be confined to the southern half of Pennsylvania with snow showers to the north across the northern half of Pennsylvania and south-central New York. As precipitation reaches the coast it could mix with or change to rain as boundary layer temps will be marginal. Over southwestern Pennsylvania accumulations should range from 2-4" with as much as 6" along the Allengheny front including the Laurel highlands. South of the region in the mountains of West Virginia someone could end up with close to 10". Over southeastern Pennsylvania and central/southern New Jersey accumulations will be around an inch or two as mountainous terrain to the west robs this system of its moisture. The northern fringes of the precipitation shield should't see anything more than an inch.

Outside of the clipper lake induced snow showers will continue in a much weakened state over the Tug Hill Plateau with some flurries extending eastward into the Adirondacks. Some upslope snow showers will still be around northern New England, but these should be very widely scattered. High temperatures throughout the region will average anywhere from 5-12 degrees below normal.

--------

Snowfall from Wednesday's clipper
Snowfall - Wednesday December 5th

---------


Clipper quickly moves offshore Wednesday evening, taking the snow with it. Skies will clear as high pressure builds into the Northeast during the overnight. Lake-effect snow will drop to the south some with the passage of the clipper but these will be short-lived as high pressure and associated subsidence squashes most of this activity after midnight. With clearing skies and calming winds temperatures will drop rather quickly after midnight as radiational cooling conditiong improve. Given most of the area will have a snowpack at this time some areas could have their coldest night of the season thus far. Once again temperatures will be some 5-15 degrees below normal.

------------

High pressure will slowly traverse the region on Thursday with mostly clear skies and light winds for most. Some lake-effect activity could present itself in west-southwest flow off of Lake Ontario as deltaT's will still be great enough to induce a lake response. Temperatures will be a bit warmer due to sunshine, but remain below normal.

Clouds increase after midnight over western sections Thursday night as a weakening low pressure from the Plains moves towards the Northeast. Warm advection light snows could develop before daybreak across Western New York and Pennsylvania. Elsewhere mostly clear skies should prevail for much of the night providing ideal radiational cooling conditions. Overnight lows will remain below normal, with the greatest dapartures over New England.

Weak low moves along a path which takes it close to the US-Canadian border on Friday. Along and to the north of the path of this low there will be steady light snowfall while to the south snow will be more widely scattered and showery in nature. With moisture and dynamics lacking only 1-3 inches of snow appears likely across the north with the greatest amounts across the higher terrain. Where precipitation becomes more showery accumulations should remain under an inch. Closer towards the coast rain showers could mix in with the snow. Temperatures will moderate some, but should still remain slightly below average for early December.

Low pressure all but disappears Friday night, leaving a weak frontal trough draped over the southern portions of the region. Clouds will hang around the area and overnight lows could remain slightly above normal as result. Any scattered snow showers will be limited to northern New England and in close proximity to the lakes.

--------

Situation for this weekend begins to get complicated as models having some trouble trying to resolve a disturbance in the northern branch of the jet stream that will have a big influence on the weather here in the Northeast by Sunday. Low pressure developing in the Plains on Friday evening will gather strength and move towards the Midwest by Saturday evening. This northern disturbance will drop a backdoor cold front into the Northeast Saturday afternoon and evening with high pressure possibly sneaking down in front of approaching low. Depending on the amplitude of this trough the Northeast could see a wet, or a white Sunday as Plains low moves into the area. Early call would put the best chances for snow across the northern third of the region and rain across the southern third. Right in the middle from central/northern Pennsylvania to central/southeastern New York into southern/central New England the situation could be icy.





__________________________________________________________

Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar

___________________________________________________________





Current Northeast Snowcover

Northeast Snowcover


___________________________________________________________

Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.

---------------------------

Great Lakes SST's 11/23/2007

Great Lakes SST's as of 11/23/2007.

-------

Fillipini's Pond conditions (Lake across street)

11/6: 42°F
11/9: 37°F
11/11: 33°F - 1st morning with grease ice on lake.
11/17: 33°F
11/22: 34°F
11/24: 32°F - patchy ice on lake this morning
11/25: 32°F - lake iced over completely, melting along the shores during the afternoon.
12/1: Patchy ice has been on the lake all week. Lake should freeeze over completely tonight.
12/3: Lake is frozen over and covered with snow. Thickness measurements starting soon.

___________________________________________________________



December Daily Weather Statistics

Date___________Hi/Lo____Precip___Sun___Snow____(Snowdepth)

December 1st - 28°F/11°F....Trace....80% Trace (0")
December 2nd - 30°F/12°F....0.32"....0% 3.8" (3")
December 3rd - 36°F/22°F....0.43"....10% 1.8" (3")
December 4th - 22°F/18°F....0.03"....10% 0.6" (4")




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Updated: 1:22 PM GMT on December 05, 2007

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Nor'easter pounding Downeast Maine

By: sullivanweather, 10:15 AM GMT on December 03, 2007

Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings

Local radars
(click on images for full-size view)

Maine

Caribou, ME radar


Portland, ME radar

------

Lake-effect areas


Binghamton, NY radar




Buffalo, NY radar

__________________________________________________________


Regional Forecast

Low pressure over Lake Ontario will move into the St.Lawrence Valley and will weaken as a new area of low pressure developing south of New York City becomes the dominate low by late this morning near Cape Cod. As this low pressure moves into the Gulf of Maine explosive deepening is likely with central pressures falling to around 977mb. This will make for near blizzard conditions in the State of Maine late ths afternoon into the early morning hours of Tuesday. Cold air pouring into the Northeast on the backside of this low will keep persistant lake-effect/upslope snow showers over the region into Tuesday night. Weak ridging moves across the north Wednesday with a clipper system skirting by close to the Mason-Dixon line bringing snow showers across the south. Next system approaches for Friday into Saturday bringing another round of wintry precipitation.

---------


Complex area of low pressure moving through the Northeast this morning will consolidate into a major Nor'easter that will dump over a foot of snow over a good portion of Maine over the next 24 hours. Warm advection snow is already beginning to overspread the state ahead of an occluded front connecting the developing coastal low to the parent low. This area of snow will fall heavy at times during the morning hours across the southern half of the state then overspread the northern half of the state in the afternoon. As low pressure begins to bomb in the Gulf of Maine frontogenic forcing on the north/backside of the low will give rise to some very impressive banding, especially over the eastern interior of Maine, where the largest totals are expected. As low deepens winds will also increase, creating near blizzard conditions over Downeast Maine late this afternoon into this evening. This is a potentially dangerous situation and non-essential travel is not recommended as conditions can quickly become life-threatening.


Nor'easter begins to fill and become vertically stacked over the Bay of Fundy early Tuesday morning. With best dynamics leaving the area, heavy snow will taper to light to moderate snow during the morning hours and to snow showers by afternoon. Heaviest totals of 12-20" should fall from Augusta northeastward to Bangor, Millinocket and Houlton. Along the coastal areas snow could mix with ice and rain, and should have a higher water content keeping totals here in the 6-10" range. There's also the chance that extreme southwestern Maine becomes dry-slotted, which would limit heavy accumulations of snow and bring some freezing drizzle to that area. Over extreme northern Maine (northern Aroostook Co.) best lift/moisture remains just south of this area, limiting snowfall to 8-14". Temperatures will range from the low 20's to low 30's throughout this event.

Nor'easter associated snowfall through Tuesday evening

New England snowfall December 3rd-4th

--------------


Despite the worst conditions in the Northeast occuring over Maine the rest of the region will not fare much better. A wintry mix of precipitation falling during the morning hours over interior New York and New England will transition back to snow showers by this afternoon as winds increase out of the northwest due to deepening low pressure and strong cold air advection. Lake effect snow will fly in and around the snow belt regions of New York and Pennsylvania under cold cyclonic flow. In favored areas as much as 6-12 inches of snow could accumulate today and tonight with lesser amounts outside of these areas. Elsewhere across the Northeast it will be partly cloudy and windy with scattered snow showers. Winds will increase out of the northwest at 20-30mph with gusts as high as 45mph. In areas that received freezing rain last night these winds could bring down tree branches and cause scattered power outages. Temperatures will hold steady and slowly fall from morning readings.

Much of the same Monday night across the Northeast with scattered snow showers across the interior and lake-effect snows continuing over the snow belts with windy conditions. Additional accumulations of 4-8 inches over the snow belts should occue during the overnight. Snow showers will have trouble pushing over the mountains into the coastal plain with partly cloudy skies here. Temperatures will drop into the teens over the interior with 20's along the coastal plain.

The Northeast continues to feel the effects of deep low moving into Nova Scotia on Tuesday. Cold northwest flow over the region will keep the lake-effect machine going with additional accumulations of 3-6 inches possible. Otherwise expect mostly cloudy skies with scattered snow showers over the interior of the Northeast. Along the coastal plain a stary snow flurry could fall, but most areas here should stay dry with partly cloudy skies. Winds will continue to blow out of the northwest at 15-25 mph with some higher gusts but should begin to decrease by late afternoon as low over the Canadian Maritimes pulls away. Temperatures will be 5-10 degrees below average with 30's expected along the coastal plain. Over the interior temperatures will remain below freezing.

Lake-effect accumulations through Tuesday night

Lake-effect accumulations - December 3rd-4th

-----------

A clipper system will dive into the Ohio Valley on Wednesday morning and scoot eastward, passing over southern Pennsylvania Wednesday afternoon and offshore by Wednesday night. A period of snow showers will accompany this clipper as it passes by, bringing an inch or two of snow to the southern half of Pennsylvania with locally higher amounts in the mountains, perhaps as much as four to six inches. Lesser amounts will fall over central and southern New Jersey, where precipitation could mix with rain, especially along the coast. Here up to an inch may coat the ground before the system moves offshore. Otherwise expect partly cloudy skies over the Northeast with some scattered snow showers around the lakes and over the higher terrain of northern New England. Temperatures will continue to average 5-10 degrees below normal as cold air remains entrenched over the region.


Surface high moves builds to the south of the region on Thursday. Some scattered lake activity will continue off the eastern lakes under a northwest flow, but it should otherwise be fair across most of the Northeast. Temperatures will continue to run 5-10 degrees below normal, but it won't seem as bad Thursday with more sunshine around.

High pressure moves offshore Thursday night with mostly clear skies for the eastern half of the region. Further west clouds will begin to increase as next system quickly approaches. Light snow could break out across western Pennsylvania before daybreak.

------------

Next system of concern moves into the region from the Ohio Valley on Friday. Low pressure developing in the central Plains Thursday will ride a fast west-east flow along the base of the long wave trough east of the Rockys. Precipitation should overspread much of Pennsylvania, New Jersey and the southern half of New York during the morning hours and move into New England during by the afternoon. At this point in time snow should be the dominate precipitation type over inland areas. Along the immediate coast from southern New England southwards into southern New Jersey and extreme southeastern Pennsylvania precipitation should mix with/change to rain. Areas of freezing rain and/or sleet cannot be ruled out with this system either.

QPF is not all too impressive with a general quarter to third of an inch being indicated at this time. This would bring a 2-5 inch snowfall over inland areas. There's still lots of time to watch this one as it's still 5 days away.

System should be gone by Saturday morning as high pressure builds into the area for the first half of the weekend.

Questions begin to arise on Sunday as another area of low pressure will develop in the Plains. Early indications are of this system taking a path into the upper lakes and across southern Canada, bringing moderating temperatures to the Northeast starting the second half of the weekend. Lots of uncertainty in this timeframe as some re-positioning of the polar vortex could take place. There's likely to be some wild fluctuations in the models during the upcoming runs as they try to resolve this evolving pattern change.

__________________________________________________________

Radar: Northeast Region

NE radar

___________________________________________________________


Current Northeast Snowcover

Northeast Snowcover


___________________________________________________________

Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.

---------------------------

Great Lakes SST's 11/23/2007

Great Lakes SST's as of 11/23/2007.

-------

Fillipini's Pond conditions (Lake across street)

11/6: 42°F
11/9: 37°F
11/11: 33°F - 1st morning with grease ice on lake.
11/17: 33°F
11/22: 34°F
11/24: 32°F - patchy ice on lake this morning
11/25: 32°F - lake iced over completely, melting along the shores during the afternoon.
12/1: Patchy ice has been on the lake all week. Lake should freeeze over completely tonight.
12/3: Lake is frozen over and covered with snow. Thickness measurements starting soon.

___________________________________________________________



December Daily Weather Statistics

Date___________Hi/Lo____Precip___Sun___Snow

December 1st - 28°F/11°F....Trace....80% Trace
December 2nd - 30°F/12°F....0.32"....0% 3.8"
December 3rd - 36°F/22°F....0.43"....10% 1.8"




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Updated: 3:32 PM GMT on December 04, 2007

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Winter storm arrives in Northeast

By: sullivanweather, 8:15 PM GMT on December 01, 2007

WINTER STORM TO IMPACT REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT


Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings
--------

New York City web cam from Times Square

--------




Binghamton, NY local radar loop


New York City, NY local radar loop





__________________________________________________________


Regional Forecast


Winter storm set-up

Major winter storm over the Plains moves into the Great Lakes states tonight, then into southern Ontario Sunday. A secondary area of low pressure will form along the front off the New Jersey Coast Sunday evening as a pocket of mid-level energy reaches the coast. This will become the dominate low by Monday morning. This low will intensify (970-975mb) and become a major Nor'easter for the northern half of New England, bringing near blizzard conditions to Downeast Maine. Deep low becomes vertically stacked over the Canadian Maritimes Tuesday, keeping the Northeast in cold cyclonic flow with lake-effect snow showers and temperatures well below normal. Another clipper low moves towards the region by Wednesday, spreading light snow back into the region. High pressure builds in Thursday and moves south of the area Friday. A weakening system could spread more precipitation into the region by Friday night and Saturday with moderating temperatures.

--------


The coldest night of the season will set the stage for the first widespread winter storm of the season, just in time for the start of meteorological winter. Cold arctic high pressure will settle over the region tonight bringing ideal radiational cooling conditions to the northeastern half of the region. Clouds begin to move into central/southeastern New York and southwestern New England after midnight putting a hold on the temperature drop, however over northern New York and central/northern New England skies will remain clear. Temperatures will plummet after dusk with single digits and teens expected for most of New England, the eastern half of New York and northeastern Pennsylvania. A few readings below zero are not out of the question across the sheltered valleys of the Adirondacks into the Presidential Range. Along the immediate coast of southern New England and Long Island, including New York City, overnight lows will hold in the low to mid 20's.


Precipitation moves into western sections before midnight and begins to overspread much of western New York and western/central Pennsylvania during the overnight. Surge of isentropic lift will begin to weaken as it moves away from upper support over the western Great Lakes, but should be strong enough to provide a quick 2-4 inches of snow over western New York and northwestern Pennsylvania. Down towards the Pittsburgh area warmer air begins to move in aloft, changing snow over to sleet and freezing rain by daybreak, limiting snow accumulations to under an inch here.

The models have had some initialization problems over the previous 24 hours as a clear underestimation of the strength and extent of cold air is noted. Several bloggers have made mention of surface temperatures running lower than the forecasted values. Soundings also indicate that models are too warm above the surface by a degree or two Celsius up to 850mb. This could have major implications in the forecast as freezing/frozen precipitation could hang on longer than what models currently indicate.

---------

Battleground sets up over the Northeast on Sunday as cold arctic high pressure nosing down the east side of the Appalachians does its best to halt the eastward progression of leading edge of precipitation. Dry air advecting into the region will cause a large area of virga along the leading edge of the snow. Isentropic lift will also wane as upper support stays over the Great Lakes region. Despite these mitigating factors snow will develop over eastern Pennsylvania, central/southeastern New York and most of New Jersey during the morning hours and slowly press towards the northeast. Warmer air moving in aloft will change snow over to sleet and freezing rain southwest of a Rochester-Elmira-Williamsport-Allentown line during the afternoon hours. From a Buffalo-Bradford-State College-Harrisburg line south and west precipitation will take the form of plain rain as temperatures rise above freezing.

A fair amount of sleet should fall within the transition zone as warm layer looks to be above the 850mb layer (around 700-750mb). This should allow for a deep enough below freezing column for sleet as opposed to freezing rain. This scenario is evident right now over Minnesota and Wisconsin as 850mb temperatures are running around -2°C to -4°C with sleet mixing in with the snow.

Accumulations of snow should range from 2-4 inches over central New York and northeastern Pennsylvania. To the immediate southwest over western New York, central/southeastern Pennsylvania and southeastern New York 1-3 inches of snow should accumulate before precipitation begins to changeover to sleet and freezing rain, with a predominance towards sleet during the first several hours after the changeover before switching to freezing rain towards evening. Further north towards the Capitol District of New York to southern New England a sharp cut-off line to the accumulating snow should exist. From the Tug Hill Plateau to south of the Capitol District to the hills of northwestern Connecticut an inch or two of snow can be expected by nightfall while just to the northeast little to no snow will fall before dusk.

Over northern New York and central/northern New England clouds will be on the increase but arctic high pressure will hold off precipitation as extremely dry air continues to advect into this region. In fact, areas of northern Maine should stay clear for most of the day on Sunday.
Highs will climb into the teens and low 20's over central/northern New England and northern New York State on Sunday.

Across central New York, northeastern Pennsylvania over to southern New England highs will remain in the mid to upper 20's. Along coastal southern New England, central New Jersey to central Pennsylavania highs will climb to near 30°F. Western New York, western/southeastern Pennsylvania and southern New Jersey temperatures will likely climb above freezing durig the afternoon hours, from the mid 30's to near 40°F.

---------

Situation become very complicated Sunday night as initial band of warm advection precipitation is overcome by the extremely dry air advecting into the area from the north. However, a secondary disturbance (which is still near Las Vegas, NV) will rocket across the country and reach the coast late Sunday night inducing a new low pressure to develop along the Jersey shore. Questions remain as to how long primary low hangs on and how fast secondary low develops. If primary is able to retain some of its strength late into the overnight, transition zone could make it north of the Capitol District of New York and northern Massachusetts. If secondary low develops faster, transition zone will likley stall over central New York to the Catskills and southern Massachusetts.

Whatever the case may be, as secondary disturbance reaches the coast precipitation will blossom as it spawns new low pressure which will tap Atlantic moisture and advect it northwestward into the Northeast. Snow will begin to overspread the rest of northern New York and western/central New England during the evening hours and into southern Maine during the overnight. Snow could fall heavy at times with significant accumulations of up to 6 inches expected.

Over southern New England, southeastern/central New York, northern New Jersey and northeastern Pennsylvania wedge of cold air will not budge, leading to a significant accumulation of sleet and freezing rain. Ice accretions of up to a half inch could glaze northeastern Pennsylvania over to interior southern New England. When combined with increasing winds of 20-25mph, fallen tree branches and power outages appear likely. Into the Catskills and Berkshires a prolonged period of sleet could fall before mixing with freezing rain after midnight. This will be on top of a 3-5 inch accumulation of snow so very treacherous conditions will exist here, although the threat of power outages will be minimized by sleet as opposed to freezing rain.

Over extreme southeastern New York, central and southern New Jersey and southeastern Pennsylvania enough onshore flow will warm the boundary layer for frozen/freezing precipitation to change over to rain, which could fall heavy at times. Further west over western Pennsylvania and New York precipitation will mainly be in the form of rain, with isolated pockets of freezing rain possible. As coastal low takes over during the overnight heights will crash and temperatures aloft will cool allowing precipitation with change back over to snow. Precipitation will taper as it changes over, however, as best lift moves east of the area. This could lead to some freezing drizzle as atmosphere will still be moist but no lift into the snow growth zone and temperatures falling back below freezing.

To the extreme north, over northern Maine, clouds will be on the increase but here should escape any precipitation before dawn as high pressure will still be too much to overcome.

------------

Coastal low takes over by early on Monday, strengthening rapidly as it moves south of Long Island with primary low weakening rapidly over the St.Lawrence Valley. Trough axis extending from coastal low to primary low will provide a good zone of convergence for ongoing precipitation over New England and northern New York. From Albany south and west dry slot will move through ending precipitation here as snow showers.

As coastal low begins to bomb in the Gulf of Maine frontogenic forcing on the northwest side of this storm will provide very heavy snows for Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine. Cold conveyour snows will continue over northern New York, but the main show will be over Maine where as much as a foot of snow could fall. Winds will howl out of the northeast creating near blizzard conditions over Downeast Maine. Some sleet could mix in with the snow at times along the coast. For the most part, with cold air warpping into the low, precipitation should primarily fall in the form of snow. There is a chance that extreme northern Maine could miss out on the bronth of this storm as dry air could hang tough, limiting accumulations here.

Towards the Great Lakes the lake-effect machine will get cranking, depositing several inches of snow downwind. Across the rest of the Northeast strong northwesterly winds will blow and temperatures will hardly budge from their morning reading, and in some cases fall throughout the day.

Areas of central New York, northeastern Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey will be especially vulnerable to these strong winds as a modest accretion of ice will be on trees and power lines. With wind gusts to 40 mph falling branches/ice and power outages will be a big concern.

Storm continues into Monday night over northern New England with snow gradually tapering during the overnight. Otherwise expect mostly cloudy skies, windy conditions and scattered snow showers across the Northeast as cyclonic flow funnels cold air into the Northeast. Lake-effect snow will continue Monday night with additional significant accumulations of snowfall here.

Temperatures will be 5-10 degrees below normal or most of the area except for Maine where snow will be ongoing.


-------

Low pressure remains nearly stationary in the Gulf of Maine Tuesday morning. Despite low pressure hanging around, snow intensities will comtinue to wane across the State of Maine as best dynamics moves into the Canadian Maritimes. A general light to occasionally moderate snow will persist for much of the day, however, with an additional 2-5 inches statewide. Low pressure finally begins to exit Tuesday evening with steady snows tapering to flurries and snow showers.

In addition to the snow in Maine, lake-effect snows will be in full operation. With continued cold advection and moist cyclonic flow the warm lakes will have no trouble putting down 6-12 inches in the snow belts.

Snowfall totals, including lake effect


Elsewhere over the Northeast it will be partly to mostly cloudy and cold with temperatures running 5-10 degrees below normal. Brisk winds out of the northwest will continue, slacking some by evening.

By Tuesday night weak ridging will move into the area. Lake-effct snows will continue but decrease in coverage and intensity. Snow showers over Maine will diminish as well, confined mainly to higher terrain. Clouds will gradually decrease during the evening into the overnight, with greatest clearing occuring across the southern portions of the region and along the coastal plain. Temperatures will drop into the teens and 20's area-wide with some single digit readings over northern New York and New England where greatest snow depth will be. Winds will continue to diminish, becoming light and variable over the southern portions and calming to 5-10mph out of the northwest over the north.


Break in precipitation won't last long as a clipper spreads clouds and snow back into the region on Wednesday, mainly across the southern half of the region. There have been some model runs that have wrapped this system up into a mini snowstorm, but latest models have a more positively tilted trough/progressive storm through the Ohio Valley, sharpening once far enough offshore as opposed to right along the coast. However, with the energy for this clipper still nowhere near the North American continent, nothing can be ruled out just yet. Not much moisture for this low to work with, so a light accumulation of snow appears the most likely outcome, with perhaps some 6 inch amounts over the Laurel Highlands and down the spine of the Appalachians into West Virginia.

Over the northern half of the region it will remain dry and cold. Some morning lake-effect activity could linger, but whatever falls should be a nominal amount. Temperatures will continue to run 5-10 degrees below normal area-wide.


Clipper low could provide coastal areas from the Jersey shore to southern New England a brief burst of moderate snow overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning as some Atlantic moisture attempts to work into this system. Otherwise expect scattered snow showers across the southern half of the region. Temperatures will continue to average below normal.

-----------

Transient high quickly builds into the region Thursday and Thursday night. With clear skies, light winds and fresh snow cover just and area-wide there should eb some very cold readings Thursday night. Temperatures will be some 10-15 degrees below normal.

Another trough moves towards the region Friday and Saturday bringing more rain and snow showers to the region. Temperatures will begin to moderate but will remain below normal.

__________________________________________________________

Radar: Northeast Region

NE radar

___________________________________________________________

Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.

---------------------------

Great Lakes SST's 11/23/2007

Great Lakes SST's as of 11/23/2007.

-------

Fillipini's Pond conditions (Lake across street)

11/6: 42°F
11/9: 37°F
11/11: 33°F - 1st morning with grease ice on lake.
11/17: 33°F
11/22: 34°F
11/24: 32°F - patchy ice on lake this morning
11/25: 32°F - lake iced over completely, melting along the shores during the afternoon.
12/1: Patchy ice has been on the lake all week. Lake should freeeze over completely tonight.
12/3: Lake is frozen over and covered with snow. Thickness measurements starting soon.

___________________________________________________________



December Daily Weather Statistics

Date___________Hi/Lo____Precip___Sun___Snow

December 1st - 28°F/11°F....Trace....80% Trace
December 2nd - 30°F/12°F....0.32....0% 3.8"




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Updated: 8:33 AM GMT on December 03, 2007

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About sullivanweather

Thomas is an avid weather enthusiast, landscaper and organic gardener. This blog is dedicated to Northeast and tropical weather forecasting. Enjoy!

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