Northeast Weather Blog

Winter storm on the way

By: sullivanweather, 7:07 AM GMT on November 30, 2007

WINTER STORM TO IMPACT REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT


Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings

Winter storm watches and winter weather advisories have been issued for central Pennsylvania and across New York State.

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Nowcast

A few bands of snow showers/squalls are moving across central and northern New York State in association with appraoching arctic front. If caught in the bronth of one of these squalls expect conditions to deteriorate rapidly. Snow will fall heavy with very gusty winds and white out conditions. A quick inch or two of fluffy snow could quickly cover roads. Otherwise a 15-30 minute burst of snow will move through with the passage of these bands which will coat the ground. Temperatures will fall sharply behind this front as arctic air gets advected into the region on a biting west-northwest wind. Lake-effect snows will increase with some very heavy short-lived bands of thundersnow possible. A general 2-4 inches should accumulate during the overnight with some localized 6-8 inch amounts.

Away from the lakes expect partly to mostly cloudy skies during the evening. A stray snow shower or two is possible as front passes, especially over northern New England. Towards the coast skies will clear after frontal passage with gusty winds in its wake.

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Regional Forecast

Lake-effect snow will taper Friday as weakening high pressure briefly moves into the region. Clipper system moves just north of the border, up the St.Lawrence Valley late Friday night and Saturday. This system deepens rapidly over the Canadian Maritimes, helping to transport arctic high pressure to the US-Canadian border Saturday night. This high will provide enough cold air for a wintry mess as low pressure approaches from the west. Complex situation follows Sunday and Monday as low pressure moves through the Northeast with snow north, mix and rain south. Low pressure bombs off the coast late Monday, keeping the Northeast in cold northwesterly flow with modest lake-effect snows in the snow belts and scattered snow showers elsewhere. High moves in late on Wednesday before another clipper low scoots to the south Wednesday night and Thursday.

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High pressure will slide along the Mason-Dixon line on Friday, bringing fair weather to the southern half of the Northeast today. Some mid to high level cloudiness could spill into this region as a clipper low moves by to the northwest, but otherwise a fine day with temperatures near to slightly below normal. Highs will reach the mid 30's to lower 40's over the interior, with mid to upper 40's along the coastal plain from New York City south.

Across the northern half of the region afforementioned clipper low will spread a slight bit more cloudiness into the region. Lake-effect snows will be falling during the morning hours in the snow belts of New York State with snow showers trailing into the Adirondacks and some making it into the Greens of Vermont. These lake effect snow showers should taper and lift northwards as the day progresses as flow backs ahead of clipper system. Some places in the Tug Hill Plateau will pick upwards of a foot of snow by the time the snow tapers in the afternoon. Towards evening the clipper itself will bring some of its snow showers into northern New York, keeping them white. Further east over northern New England skies will be partly to mostly cloudy. There's an outside chance for a stray snow shower or two over northern Maine, but it should otherwise stay precipitation-free. It will be brisk and highs will be running around 5 degrees below seasonal averages. Across the snow belts of New York temperatures will stay in the low 30's. Over northern New York and New England highs should remain in the 20's. From Downeast Maine southwards along the coastal plain of New England temperatures should rise above freezing with mid 30's north to low 40's south.

Clipper moves into northern New England tonight and quickly off into the Canadian Maritimes. A quick inch or two of snow could falll across the higher elevations of northern New York and New England with the passage of this clipper with a dusting to an inch in the valleys. Strong cold air advection follows this system with 850mb temperatures dropping from -20°C north to -10°C south. Lake-effect gets going during the evening hours and lasts into the overnight on a northwesterly flow. Expect a multi-band scenario with a widespread 1-4" accumulation. Given the wind trajectory, Finger Lake action could get going as well, with some enhancement off those lakes as well. Elsewhere expect clearing skies and a brisk wind as departing clipper begins to deepen east of the region. Should be the coldest night of the season thus far for some areas of Pennsylvania to southern New England with lows in the teens and 20's area wide. Urban areas of New York and Philadelphia could remain near 30°F. Wind chills will be a factor as well, especially in the evening hours, with single digit wind chills over northern New York and New England and teens to the coast.



Strong dome of arctic high pressure builds over the region on Saturday. Capping inversion crashes and quickly shuts down the lake-effect during the morning hours. Skies will be mostly clear and despite the plentiful sunshine, it will be quite chilly. Temperatures will run 5-10 degrees below normal with highs remaining below freezing for the northwestern half of the area. Even along the coastal plain, temperatures will struggle to reach 40°F. By mid to late afternoon high clouds will begin to spread into western sections as winter storm begins to move into the region.


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Winter storm set-up


Models have come into much better agreement in its handling of the upcoming winter storm. A very large upper low complex is over the Pacific Ocean off the coast of Baja. This low has a tropical connection with copious amounts of moisture being pulled from off the tropical Mexcian coast. Energy dropping down the backside of a phasing trough over the Western US will pick up this upper low and its associated moisture and lift it into the Four Corners region and out into the Plains. This storm will bring one to two inches of rain to the deserts of Arizona and up to a foot of snow to the mountains, although snow levels will be rather high. As this storm pulls eastward snow will break out in the Upper Midwest to the Great Lakes states. A changeover to ice can be expected from a Minneapolis to Green Bay line south and east to a Des Moines-Madsion-Traverse City line where precipitation should change to plain rain.

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Here in the Northeast clouds will increase Saturday night across the southern and western sections of the region. Snow will begin around midnight in western New York and Pennsylvania and spread eastward. Areas of southwestern Pennsylvania near the Pittsburgh area precipitation should quickly change to sleet and freezing rain. Across northwestern Pennsylvania precipitation should change over to sleet and freezing rain around daybreak. From western New York into north-central Pennsylvania a couple of inches of snow could accumulate by morning.

Further north and east arctic high pressure will be in control with mostly clear skies and very cold temperatures. Lows will drop into the single digits and teens from north-central New York to central and northern New England. A few mountain valleys in the Northeast Kingdom will find their thermometers below zero. Over southern New England and along the coastal plain temperatures will fall into the 20's.


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Precipitation moving into the Northeast begins to have a tough time overcoming arctic high pressure and its associated dry air. Snow will slow its eastward progression as dry air eats away at its leading edge. Strong high and confluent flow over New England will keep cold dry air dammed along the east side of the Appalachian Mountains and starts to shear out low pressure moving into the Great Lakes. Mainly light snow will fall over south-central New York and northeastern Pennsylvania over to southern New England. From the Niagra Frontier to north-central Pennsylvania to the Lehigh Valley precipitation will begin to change to sleet and freezing rain during the day on Sunday with modest accumulations of ice likely. Head further southwest over western Pennsylvania, and southeast across southern New Jersey, precipitation should change to rain.

Over central and northern New England arctic high pressure will remain in control with slowly increasing clouds and light winds.

Temperatures will range from the 20's from south-central New York and north-central Pennsylvania northeastward into northern New England. Along coastal southern New England south along the coastal plain highs will make it into the 30's. Highs will also reach the 30's over southern and western Pennsylvania and western New York State. There's a chance that temperatures could climb as high as 40°F over extreme southwestern Pennsylvania.









Primary low weakens over the Great Lakes Sunday night as a secondary area of low pressure devleops near the Jersey shore and becomes the dominate low. With much complication in this part of the forecast I will break it down to sections.


Northern Maine: High pressure/confluence will manage to keep this area dry and mostly clear for one more night. Temperatures will be very cold with lows in the teens.

Southern Maine, northern New Hampshire and northern Vermont: Clouds will increase after a mostly clear early evening. Snow will develop before daybreak with low in the teens.

Northern New York, southern Vermont and southern New Hampshire: Cloudy with snow developing between 8pm and midnight. Snow could become heavy by daybreak. Lows in the low 20's. Snow accumulations 3-5"; 4-9" in the Adirondacks, southern Greens.

Capitol District of New York and western Massachusetts: Snow likely, becoming heavy at times around midnight. Snow could mix with sleet at time late. Lows in the mid 20's. Snow accumulations 4-7" with locally higher amounts in the Berkshires.


South-central New York, northeastern Pennsylvania, Catskills, Taconics and northwest Connecticut: Snow likely during the evening, mixing with and changing to sleet and freezing rain around midnight. Precipitation could fall heavy at times. Lows in the upper 20's to low 30's. Snow accumulations 2-4" with up to 1/4 inch of ice accumuation.

North-central Pennsylvania, Lehigh and Wyoming Valleys, northwestern New Jersey: Snow likely early during the evening, changing to sleet and freezing rain. Mixed precipitation will change to rain by midnight with isolated pockets of freezing rain persisting into the overnight. Lows near 32°F. Snow accumulations 1-2" with 1/4 inch or more of ice accumulation.

Mid-Hudson Valley and Connecticut Valley: Snow likely during the evening, changing to sleet and freezing rain around midnight. Precipitation could be heavy at times. Lows near 30°F. Snow accumulation 1-3" with 1/4-1/2 inch of ice accumulation.

Coastal southern New England: Snow during the evening changing to rain before midnight. Rain could be heavy at times. Temperatures rising into the mid to upper 30's. Snow accumulations around an inch.

South-central Pennsylvania, central and northeastern New Jersey and inland southeastern New York: Sleet and freezing rain changing to rain after midnight. Temperatures rising into the mid 30's. Ice accumulations of up to 1/4".

Long Island and New York City: Light snow or mix quickly changing to rain. Rain will become heavy at times. Temperatures rising to near 40°F. Little or no snow accumulation. Rainfall up to an inch.

Coastal and southern New Jersey: Rain, heavy at times after midnight. Temperatures rising into the upper 30's to low 40's. Rainfall 1/2 to one inch.

Western New York: Sleet and freezing rain changing to rain during the evening. Becoming colder with rain changing to snow well after midnight. Temperatures rising during the evening into the mid 30's, then falling after midnight into the upper 20's. Little or no ice accumualtions. Up to an inch of snowfall.

Western Pennsylvania: Rain, tapering off to showers before midnight. Rain could change to snow towards daybreak. Lows in the low 30's. Little to no snow accumulation.

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Secondary low bombs in the Gulf of Maine on Monday providing a major snowfall for the northern half of New England. Some places in Maine could pick up a foot of snow with near blizzard conditions as low bottoms out around 975mb. Any rain along the coast will change to snow during the day as cold air floods into the region behind low.

Towards the Great Lakes, lake effect snow will pick up, depositing several more inches of snow downwind. Snow showers could fall area wide under cold, moist cyclonic flow. Temperatures will be 5-10 degrees below normal.

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Snowfall totals, including lake effect


As low pressure pulls away Monday evening snows will end over New England. Lake-effect continues Monday night through Wednesday as low pressure becomes vertically stacked over the Canadian Martimes and stalls. During the time period many locations should see over 6 inches to a foot of snow in the snow belts. Upslope areas of the Northeast Kingdom will see numerous snow showers in moist cyclonic flow. Elsewhere it will be breezy and cold, with partly cloudy skies and the occasional snow shower. Temperatures area wide will average 5-10 degrees or more below normal.

Models diverge in handling of clipper system next Thursday. Some slow it down bringing another modest snowfall to the Northeast, while other pass it offshore to the south bringing only clouds and snow showers. Will mention a chance for snow on Thursday. More cold cyclonic flow likely bringing more lake snows and contined below normal temperatures Friday.

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Radar: Northeast Region

NE radar

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Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.

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Great Lakes SST's 9-29

Great Lakes SST's as of 11/23/2007.

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Fillipini's Pond conditions (Lake across street)

11/6: 42°F
11/9: 37°F
11/11: 33°F - 1st morning with grease ice on lake.
11/17: 33°F
11/22: 34°F
11/24: 32°F - patchy ice on lake this morning
11/25: 32°F - lake iced over completely, melting along the shores during the afternoon.

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November Daily Weather Statistics

Date___________Hi/Lo____Precip___Sun___Snow

November 1st - 53°F/38°F....0.00"....40%
November 2nd - 52°F/30°F....0.00"....90%
November 3rd - 51°F/35°F....0.00"....30%
November 4th - 48°F/36°F....0.00"....15%
November 5th - 52°F/28°F....0.23"....60%
November 6th - 45°F/36°F....0.26"....40% Trace
November 7th - 37°F/27°F....Trace....40% Trace
November 8th - 37°F/19°F....0.00"....60%
November 9th - 38°F/27°F....0.21"....0% 1.5"
November 10th - 37°F/26°F....0.26"....20% 3.1"
November 11th - 42°F/20°F....0.00"....95%
November 12th - 39°F/24°F....0.12"....0%
November 13th - 54°F/29°F....0.31"....80%
November 14th - 48°F/27°F....0.39"....5%
November 15th - 52°F/35°F....1.53"....0% Trace
November 16th - 37°F/27°F....0.02"....40% 0.1"
November 17th - 36°F/26°F....0.00"....20%
November 18th - 35°F/28°F....0.02"....0% 0.2"
November 19th - 33°F/28°F....0.18"....0% 2.6"
November 20th - 37°F/31°F....0.31"....0% Trace
November 21st - 48°F/37°F....0.02"....0%
November 22nd - 63°F/29°F....0.04"....30%
November 23rd - 31°F/18°F....Trace....75% Trace
November 24th - 32°F/15°F....0.00"....60%
November 25th - 44°F/18°F....0.08"....95% 0.2"
November 26th - 50°F/30°F....1.01"....0% 0.1"
Nevember 27th - 52°F/29°F....0.04"....70% Trace
November 28th - 37°F/27°F....Trace....85% Trace
November 29th - 44°F/28°F....0.02"....45% 0.2"
November 30th - 37°F/24°F....Trace....85% Trace



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Updated: 5:39 AM GMT on December 01, 2007

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Storm still likely, less snowy for Northeast

By: sullivanweather, 8:55 PM GMT on November 28, 2007

Winter Storm still appears likely, although less snowy, for Sunday and Monday


Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings


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Regional Forecast

Active pattern this period as two weak clippers move through the region. One on Thursday, another Friday night and Saturday. Each bringing scattered snow showers with their passage and lake-effect snows in their wake. High pressure briefly builds into the Northeast on Saturday night but quickly retreats into Canada on Sunday as low pressure moves from the Plains to the Great Lakes region. The eventual track of this low and position of high pressure over Canada will dictate who sees what in terms of rain, snow and ice. Models are not in total agreement as of this time, but system does look warmer than it did the beginning of this week. This system will form a deep, vertically stacked, closed low over the Canadian Martimes for the Tuesday-Thursday time frame. This set-up will likely keep the Northeast in cold northwesterly flow with lake-effect/upslope snow showers and occasional enhancement from any shortwaves dropping southeastward.

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Low pressure moving into the Great Lakes this Wednesday evening is beginning to spread clouds into the Northeast that will continue to increase during the overnight. During the early evening, however, skies will be mostly clear over the southeastern half of teh Northeast, allowing temperatures to drop quickly after dusk. As the night progresses, and increase in cloud cover and a developing southwesterly wind will likely halt temperatures from dropping much further after the late evening and could actually rise a few degrees towards daybreak. A few scattered snow showers will likely develop over the northern New York near the lakes and along the Canadian border after midnight as isentropic lift increases ahead of the low. Lows will fall into the upper teens to low 20's over northern New York and New England with mid 20's over central New York and New England. Across northern Pennsylvania to southeastern New York to southern New England lows will fall to the upper 20's while from southern Pennsylvania to the coastal plain lows will drop into the low to mid 30's. Wind will increase outof the southwest after midnight.


On Thursday, the Great Lakes low will continue moving northeastward to a position just southeast of Hudson Bay by afternoon. A cold front will swing through the Northeast bringing scattered valley rain showers and higher elevation snow showers with the best coverage of precipitation towards the north. Best lift will remain north of most of the area, except for Maine where isentropic lift driven snows will break out during the morning hours and continue into the afternoon with 1-4 inches falling, highest amounts will fall over the higher terrain. The immediate coast from New York City south will likely remain precipitation free with partly to mostly cloudy skies and breezy conditions. Highs across the interior will likely occur during the morning hours, then slowly fall during the afternoon. Along the coastal plain temperatures will likely reach their highs by noon then hold steady before dropping off late in the afternoon as the sun angle decreases. Western New York and Pennsylvania will top out early in the mid 30's north, to low 40's south before falling. Southeastern Pennsylvania and southern/central New Jersey will likely see highs in the mid to upper 40's by noon before stalling. Southeastern New York and southern New England will see highs in the low to mid 40's. Northeastern Pennsylvania to central New York and central New England will see highs in the upper 30's to near 40°F. Over northern New York to northern New England highs will likely remain below freezing with the snow. Winds will shift from the southwest to the west-northwest with the frontal passage and become gusty with strong cold air advection.


Cold front clears the region during the evening leaving lake-effect snows in its wake on a west-northwesterly wind component. Lake-effect snows could accumulate 3-6 inches off Lake Ontario into the Tug Hill Plateau area Thursday night with minor accumulations extending into the Adirondacks and off of Lake Erie. Leftover snow showers over Maine will diminsh by midnight, with an additional inch or so of snow expected. Otherwise expect clearing skies Thursday night away from the two problem areas. Wind will gradually diminish over the southern portions of the region as high pressure begins to build into the area. Overnight lows will be near or slightly below normal over the region as polar airmass moves in.

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Lake-effect snows continue into Friday morning off Lake Ontario, bringing an additional 2 or 3 inches before tapering after noon as flow becomes anti-cyclonic, atmosphere drys and inversions lower. Otherwise expect mostly clear skies as high pressure moves just south of the area during the day on Friday. Some high clouds could filter into the region by afternoon ahead of the next clipper system that will move through Friday night and Saturday. Highs will remain near to slightly below normal.


Another weak clipper system moves into the region on Friday night spilling snow showers back into the region. This system will skirt just north of the border into the St.Lawrence River Valley and into the Canadian Martimes during the day on Saturday. An inch or two of snow could fall over the higher elevations on the Adirondacks to the Green and White Mountains into northern Maine. Lake-effect snows will also kick back into gear beind this clipper before shutting down by late in the afternoon on Saturday as high pressure moves back into the region by Saturday night. A few inches of snow could accumulate with this next brief lake-effect event, but nothing more. Temperatures on Friday night and Saturday will be near to slightly below seasonal normal levels for late November.

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Model differences begin to show themselves as early as Friday, but differences in models don't affect the sensible weather here in the Northeast until Saturday night. GFS seems too quick to start precipitation with precipitation moving into western New York and Pennsylvania by midnight and all the way to the coast by daybreak Sunday. NAM holds precipitation back with the leading edge entering western New York and Pennsylvania about 6-9 hours later than the GFS.

With that being said, will side with the NAM on its timing with the onset of precipitation, holding much of it to the west of the area during overnight Saturday. This scenario gives much of the Northeast a chilly, but dry Saturday night, with mostly clear skies for most of the region before midnight and increasing levels of high cloudiness over the western sections after midnight. With clear skies and light winds due to the influence of transient high that will be over the region, ideal radiational cooling conditins will be present with temperatures dropping to 5-10 degrees below seasonal normal levels. A stray snow showers or two could move off Lake Ontario during the evening hours, but any lake-effect activity will die down during the evening as the high builds in.

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Situation complicated further still on Sunday. Until the 28/1800z run of the GFS, that model consistantly showed for 5 runs low pressure moving into the Great Lakes and wrapping up there, sending warm air into the Northeast aloft, changing precipitation over to ice, than rain for at least the southern half of the region. New 28/1800GFS seems to have gone out to lunch with this storm, lifting a rather weak low towards southern Lake Michigan on Sunday with bagginess along the frontal boundary extending into the Plains. This bagginess then forms a new low along the front which combines with the primary low over the Great Lakes near Lake Erie. This complex low pressure system then moves east across New York State to the southern New England coast Monday morning. This scenario seems highly unlikely.

The NAM, which doesn't go out beyond 84 hrs (1am Sunday), seems as though it has a much more sensible scenario. Low pressure is still over the central Plains late Saturday night/early Sunday morning, with precipitation extending as far eastward as southern Michigan, as opposed to all the way into central New York and Pennsylvania. The GFS has a bias for underestimating the strength of high pressure over the Northeastern US and how quickly it moves the high out, whereas the NAM usually does much better in this regard.

Siding with the NAM, extrapolating precipitation eastward beyond the 84 hour range of this model would bring precipitation into western New York and Pennsylvania right around daybreak. Precipitation should overspread the rest of central New York and Pennsylvania by noon and make it to the New York/New England border by mid-afternoon. Precipitation should begin as snow for most of the region except for extreme southern New Jersey where precipitation could begin as a brief period of sleet before changing to rain. By late afternoon snow will change to a wintry mix of sleet, freezing rain and plain ol' rain across southern and western Pennsylvania over to central New Jersey. Across the northerntier of Pennsylvania and the southerntier of New York accumulating snows will continue throughout the day at varying levels of intensity. A few inches should accumulate here by evening. Temperatures will be running below normal with cloud cover and snowfall keeping temperatures 5-10 degrees below seasonal norms.

Further north over northern New York and central and northern New England high pressure should remain in control with an increase in cloud cover as the day progresses. Temperatures here will also average 5-10 degrees below normal under an area of chilly high pressure.



If things weren't complicated enough on Sunday, the situation clouds itself even more Sunday night. Low pressure over the Great Lakes should occlude and lift towards Lake Huron. A new low should then form, either along the coast, or at the triple point. This secondary low formation will depend on strength and placement of high pressure over southern Canada. The stronger the high the more likely it will be for low pressure to form along the coast as high will be nosing ts way down the east side of the Appalachians. If high isn't as strong, a triple point low will likely form over western Pennsylvania and lift east-northeastward into southern New England. Will be siding with the latter scenario, with a triple point low developing as opposed to a coastal development. This will act to keep the primary low stronger and allow for a greater push of warmer air into the Northeast as we head into Sunday night.

With this scenario snow will changeover to sleet and freezing rain across the northerntier of Pennsylvania and southerntier of New York sometime during the evening into the overnight on Sunday which could result in a significant accumulation of ice. Wintry mix to the south, over southern Pennsylvania, the northern half of New Jersey and southeastern New York will likely change over to all rain. Further north over northern New York and New England snow will commence, and could become heavy at times by daybreak on Monday. Southern New England will see snow develop during the evening hours before changing over to a wintry mix by midnight. Along the immediate coast of southern New England this changeover will likely be straight to rain, skipping the icing troubles.


By Monday morning secondary low will have formed, most likely a triple point low over eastern Pennsylvania/southeastern New York. This will halt the northward progression on the transition zone whose front line will likely be from the east shores of Lake Ontario to central New hampshire and up along the Maine Coast. Wintry mix will transition to plain rain from Buffalo southeastward to Binghamton, then eastward to Concord, NH. South of here precipitation will be in the form of rain aside from a few isolated pockets of freezing rain in sheltered valleys in the Catskills and northeast Pennsylvania. As triple point low takes over and begins to move offshore precipitation on the back side will gradually change back over to snow before tapering. Over northern New York and New England snow should be falling, and at a moderate clip. Several inches of accumulation are possible here. Winds will pick up out of the northwest during the afternoon and lake-effect will organize. Temperatures will likely fall during the afternoon under strong cold air advection.

As low pressure pulls away Monday evening snows will end over New England, with some areas across the Northeast Kingdom picking up some rather significant totals. Lake-effect continues Monday night through Wednesday as low pressure becomes vertically stacked over the Canadian Martimes and stalls. During the time period many locations should see over 6 inches to a foot of snow in the snow belts. Upslope areas of the Northeast Kingdom will see numerous snow showers in moist cyclonic flow. Elsewhere it will be breezy and cold, with partly cloudy skies and the occasional snow shower. Temperatures area wide will average 5-10 degrees or more below normal.

Lake effect looks to calm to Wednesday night as high pressure builds into the Northeast out of Canada. High pressure will remain over the region on Thursday bringning fair, but continued cold weather. Temperatures will still average 5-10 degrees below normal.


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Radar: Northeast Region

NE radar

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Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.

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Great Lakes SST's 9-29

Great Lakes SST's as of 11/23/2007.

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Fillipini's Pond conditions (Lake across street)

11/6: 42°F
11/9: 37°F
11/11: 33°F - 1st morning with grease ice on lake.
11/17: 33°F
11/22: 34°F
11/24: 32°F - patchy ice on lake this morning
11/25: 32°F - lake iced over completely, melting along the shores during the afternoon.

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November Daily Weather Statistics

Date___________Hi/Lo____Precip___Sun___Snow

November 1st - 53°F/38°F....0.00"....40%
November 2nd - 52°F/30°F....0.00"....90%
November 3rd - 51°F/35°F....0.00"....30%
November 4th - 48°F/36°F....0.00"....15%
November 5th - 52°F/28°F....0.23"....60%
November 6th - 45°F/36°F....0.26"....40% Trace
November 7th - 37°F/27°F....Trace....40% Trace
November 8th - 37°F/19°F....0.00"....60%
November 9th - 38°F/27°F....0.21"....0% 1.5"
November 10th - 37°F/26°F....0.26"....20% 3.1"
November 11th - 42°F/20°F....0.00"....95%
November 12th - 39°F/24°F....0.12"....0%
November 13th - 54°F/29°F....0.31"....80%
November 14th - 48°F/27°F....0.39"....5%
November 15th - 52°F/35°F....1.53"....0% Trace
November 16th - 37°F/27°F....0.02"....40% 0.1"
November 17th - 36°F/26°F....0.00"....20%
November 18th - 35°F/28°F....0.02"....0% 0.2"
November 19th - 33°F/28°F....0.18"....0% 2.6"
November 20th - 37°F/31°F....0.31"....0% Trace
November 21st - 48°F/37°F....0.02"....0%
November 22nd - 63°F/29°F....0.04"....30%
November 23rd - 31°F/18°F....Trace....75% Trace
November 24th - 32°F/15°F....0.00"....60%
November 25th - 44°F/18°F....0.08"....95% 0.2"
November 26th - 50°F/30°F....1.01"....0% 0.1"
Nevember 27th - 52°F/29°F....0.04"....70% Trace
November 28th - 37°F/27°F....Trace....85% Trace



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Updated: 6:08 AM GMT on November 29, 2007

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Preliminary Storm Outlook

By: sullivanweather, 8:25 PM GMT on November 26, 2007

Short-term Update

Montague, NY Radar


Lake-effect snow will pick up over the next few hours as flow becomes better aligned and colder air advects into the region behind departing shortwave. Accumulations of 1-3 inches are possible tonight with isolated 4 inch amounts.

As this shortwave moves into northern New England a few brief, but intense, snow showers will coat the ground.

Otherwise expect partly cloudy skies and breezy conditions during the overnight for the remainder of the Northeast.

Potential exists for a Winter Storm late this weekend into early next week. Peliminary synposis is below.


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Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings


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Regional Forecast

Storm system currently affecting the Northeast this Monday with rain and when moisture makes its way into northern Maine tonight, snow. Low clears the region on Tuesday with lake-effect snow and blustery conditions in its wake. High pressure moves over the region on Wednesday with mostly clear skies and near normal temperatures. Low approaches on both Thursday and Saturday, bringing rain and snow showers and leaving behind progressively colder air and lake snows. By the end of the weekend into early next week and potentially larger system will make its way towards the Northeast which could result in a significant snowfall for some in this very active pattern.

-------------------

Rain currently engulfs most of New York and Pennsylvania late this Monday afternoon with a stripe of rain also across central New England. Expect precipitation to gradualy overspread the entire area this evening as low pressure moves through the Ohio Valley and into the Northeast. Precipitation will be steady and fall moderately to heavy at times. As precipitation reaches northern Maine vertical profiles would suggest that the predominate precipitation type will be in the form of snow. Up to a half foot of snow could fall over extreme northern Maine during the overnight period. Further south along the coastal plain of New Jersey, southeastern New York and southern New England a line of low-topped convection could form in a slightly unstable airmass in the warm sector along the cold front as it moves through. This line could have some gusty winds and torrential downpours associated with it and will make for very difficult travel as there could be rapid ponding of water and reduced visibilities. Overall three quarters of an inch to an inch and a half of rainfall should occur for the length of this storm. Isolated amounts of 2 inches or more is also possible. This will lead to some flashier creeks and streams possibly coming out of their banks and sharp within bank rises on area main stem rivers. As low moves into New England rain could change over to snow showers across western New York acorss the northerntier of New York into the Adirondakcs. Temperatures will be mild this evening to the south of the warm front over the coastal plain. Expect 50's here with temperatures dropping into the 40s after the frontal passage around midnight. Over the interior temperatures will be in the 40's before the low/front moves through and fall back to the 30's after it's passage. Further north over northern New York and central to northern New England, excluding northern Maine, temperatures will be in the upper 30's during the evening, falling back to then low 30's after the passage of the low. Over northern Maine temperatures will be in the low 30's socked in with frozen precipitation.

---------------

Low pressure moves through New England and off into the Canadian Maritimes on Tuesday morning with steady precipitation tapers quickly after its passage. Over northern Maine an additional 2-4 inches could fall during the morning hours with up to half an inch of rain towards the south over the rest of northern and eastern New England. Behind the departing storm gusty northwest winds will usher in a cooler, but not terribly cold, airmass. Lake-effect snows will begin during the morning hours over the eastern lakes with several inches of accumulation downwind, especially over the higher terrain with boundary layer temps only marginal for accumulating snows in valley locations. Away from the lakes skies over the rest of New York and Pennsylvania to the coastal plain skies will be partly cloudy with a few stray rain or snow showers. Temperatures will likely remain steady during the morning then slowly fall by mid-afternoon after peak heating.

A short wave disturbance dropping down the backside of the trough that will be carved out over the Northeast could provide a brief enhancment of lake-effect snows during Tuesday evening. Multi-bands will likely be disrupted with the passage of this disturbance and could form a line of snow squalls that will push off the lakes and drop into New York State. Flow will likely re-align after the passage of this shortwave bringing another round of multi-band lake effect. In total, an additional 2-4 inches of snow could fall downwind of Lake Ontario, with up to an inch or two of snow with the passage of potential snow squalls. Down wind of Lake Erie amounts will be similar, but with more isolated occurances of 2-4 inch amounts. Otherwise expect clearing skies with gradually diminishing winds over the Northeast, aside from northern New England where clouds and snow showers will hang tough due to cyclonic flow, upslope and passage of shortwave and associated PVA. Lows will likely fall to near freezing along the coastal plain with 20's over the interior. Only higher elevations of the Adirondacks, Green and White mountains could see lows fall into the teens. Wind chills will also be quite chilly during the evening hours before winds diminish.

------------


High pressure will build into the Northeast on Wednesday shutting down the lake-effect. Skies will be mostly clear for the majority of the day. Towards evening some high clouds will begin to filter into western and northern New York State as the next system approaches from the west. Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal across the southern half of the region, near to slightly below normal acorss the northern half. This translates to upper 20's to low 30's over northern New England. Mid to upper 30's over northern New York into central New England. Low 40's over central New York and northern Pennsylvania and upper 40's to low 50's across southern Pennsylvania to the coastal plain and southern New England.

Fast moving low pressure coming out of the Plains will make it to the Great Lakes Wednesday night spreading clouds into the region with some snow showers developing after midnight across western New York and Pennsylvania, with rain showers towards the Pittsburgh area of southwestern Pennsylvania. With clouds moving in overnight lows will likely be up to 5 degrees or so above normal.


Low pressure moves north of the area on Thursday across southern Ontario into southern Quebec. A cold/occluded front will be dragged through the Northeast with scattered rain and snow showers. Elevation will likely dictate who sees what, with most places across the northern half and above 1000' seeing more snow. Less than 1000' elevation and towards the south, more liquid. Lake-effect snows will likely commence immediately following the passage of this front, along with steady or slowly falling temperatures under strong cold air advection. Moderate accumulations downwind of the eastern Great Lakes appear likely with west-northwest flow being able to tap moisture from upstream lakes. High temperatures will once again be near normal levels for this time of year, despite their early occurance. Winds will become quite brisk after the passage of this front as well.

Lake-effect continues into Thursday night downwind of the Great Lakes with snow showers over central and northern New England due to passage of the trough. Several more inches of snow accumulations should occur in lake-effect areas and the mountainous terrain of northern New England. Winds will remain quite gusty over New England but begin to diminish over the southern third of the region. Overnight lows will likely fall back below normal.

-------------

High pressure moves to the south of the region on Friday. Lake-effect will lessen some, but not totally taper and snow showers will persist throughout the day immediately downwind of the lakes. Elsewhere clearing skies over northern New England and partly cloudy to mostly clear skies throughout the rest of the Northeast will lead to a nice, albeit, chilly day. High temperatures will average 3-7 degrees below normal on Friday with a brisk wind over northern New England.

A clipper system quickly moves back into the Northeast for Friday night and Saturday. Disrupted flow just ahead of the low will likely cut-off lake-effect, but scattered snow showers associated with the clipper system itself will develop during the overnight and the day on Saturday. Greatest concentration of these snow showers will be across the north, with southern areas mainly seeing an increase in cloud cover and perhaps a stray snow shower. Temperatures will continue to average around 5 degrees below normal. After system passes lake-effect will commence once again during Saturday afternoon.

High pressure quickly builds in behind clipper system, likely limiting lake-effect accumulations to just a couple of inches. Skies will clear and winds will calm. With very chilly airmass overhead, Saturday night will likely be the coldest night thus far this season. I wouldn't rule out the possibility of below zero temperatures in the colder mountain valleys of the Northeast Kingdom. Elsewhere acorss northern New York and New England temperatures are likely to fall into the single digits with low teens over most of the interior. Even along the coast and urban areas, temperatures could drop to near 20°F with even colder wind chills during the evening hours.

-----------


Active pattern will continue into the second half of the weekend into early next week. Energy dropping down into the western US to the Four Corners region will cross the southern Rockys and spawn low pressure in the southern Plains. With high pressure anchored over the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes and a fast jet stream developing over the center of the country, precipitation will break out over the southern Plains and Mid-Mississippi Valley spreading quickly eastward.

A number of different scenarios could play out from this juncture, depending on how much energy comes out of the southwest. In any event, favorable high position over southern Canada nosing down the eastside of the Appalachians should make for a wintry precipitation event once this moisture reaches the Northeast late Sunday into Monday. Peliminary estimates from models show a solid half to three quarters of an inch of liquid equivilent precipitation across the southern half of the Northeast with lesser amounts towards the north. Of course, with this event being a week away much can change. A stronger high pressure could keep the system further south, with lighter precipitation amounts. A stronger low and weaker high could allow the system to take a further west track bringing a snow to mix/rain event, with significant snows falling further north and in Canada.


Peliminary forecast for Sunday-Monday storm

Sunday precip type map


Sunday night - Monday precip type map


Based on model trends I believe a common set-up to this system will evolve. An area low pressure will ride into the Ohio Valley from the Mid-Mississippi Valley where it will weaken and transfer its energy to a developing low pressure area off the Delmarva. The primary low will weaken as it moves into western Pennsylvania as the secondary low strengthens and moves up the coast, just offshore.

Given this scenario, this is how I believe the snowfall totals would pan out

peliminary snow totals dec 2-3 storm

A stripe of moderate snow should fall from northeast Missouri to southern Michigan and northern Ohio. Another area of moderate to heavy snow should fall from north-central Pennsylvania northeastward to Maine. Enhanced totals downwind of the Great Lakes is due to lake-effect snow and only partly associated with the low pressure system itself.

Please note: This is a peliminary forecast based on knowledge of past events. Basically a climatology forecast. Individual storm characteristics will likely not be known until later this week.


Behind this storm the arctic gates open allowing some moderated arctic air to move into the Northeast with 850mb temps falling to -15°C and 500mb thicknesses falling below 520dm and a potentially extended lake-effect event.


__________________________________________________________

Radar: Northeast Region

NE radar

___________________________________________________________

Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.

---------------------------

Great Lakes SST's 9-29

Great Lakes SST's as of 11/23/2007.

-------

Fillipini's Pond conditions (Lake across street)

11/6: 42°F
11/9: 37°F
11/11: 33°F - 1st morning with grease ice on lake.
11/17: 33°F
11/22: 34°F
11/24: 32°F - patchy ice on lake this morning
11/25: 32°F - lake iced over completely, melting along the shores during the afternoon.

___________________________________________________________



November Daily Weather Statistics

Date___________Hi/Lo____Precip___Sun___Snow

November 1st - 53°F/38°F....0.00"....40%
November 2nd - 52°F/30°F....0.00"....90%
November 3rd - 51°F/35°F....0.00"....30%
November 4th - 48°F/36°F....0.00"....15%
November 5th - 52°F/28°F....0.23"....60%
November 6th - 45°F/36°F....0.26"....40% Trace
November 7th - 37°F/27°F....Trace....40% Trace
November 8th - 37°F/19°F....0.00"....60%
November 9th - 38°F/27°F....0.21"....0% 1.5"
November 10th - 37°F/26°F....0.26"....20% 3.1"
November 11th - 42°F/20°F....0.00"....95%
November 12th - 39°F/24°F....0.12"....0%
November 13th - 54°F/29°F....0.31"....80%
November 14th - 48°F/27°F....0.39"....5%
November 15th - 52°F/35°F....1.53"....0% Trace
November 16th - 37°F/27°F....0.02"....40% 0.1"
November 17th - 36°F/26°F....0.00"....20%
November 18th - 35°F/28°F....0.02"....0% 0.2"
November 19th - 33°F/28°F....0.18"....0% 2.6"
November 20th - 37°F/31°F....0.31"....0% Trace
November 21st - 48°F/37°F....0.02"....0%
November 22nd - 63°F/29°F....0.04"....30%
November 23rd - 31°F/18°F....Trace....75% Trace
November 24th - 32°F/15°F....0.00"....60%
November 25th - 44°F/18°F....0.08"....95% 0.2"
November 26th - 50°F/30°F....1.01"....0% 0.1"
Nevember 27th - 52°F/29°F....0.04"....70% Trace



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Updated: 6:36 AM GMT on November 28, 2007

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Rain/snow/wintry mix expected; advisories posted

By: sullivanweather, 9:52 PM GMT on November 25, 2007

Current watches, warnings and advisories.

Winter weather advisories are issued for east-central New York and western New England for the likelyhood of a light mixture of snow, sleet and freezing rain to begin after midnight. Precipitation is expected to change to rain Monday morning.

In central Massachusetts Freezing rain Advisories are posted.

Eastern US current watches/warnings



______________________________

Current Surface Analysis

Current Surface Analysis

__________________________________________________________

Regional Forecast

A southern stream low pressure will move into the Northeast during the day on Monday, spreading rain, snow and a wintry mix of precipitation into the region. This low will move away from the area on Tuesday with lake effect and upslope snow showers in its wake. Drier weather on Wednesday as high pressure crests over the region with near normal tempeatures. Troughs move through on Thursday and Saturday, each bringing scattered rain and snow showers with lake-effect and progressively colder air in their wake.

------------

Clouds are beginning to increase this Sunday evening over New York and Pennsylvania in response to moisture streaming northeastward from the Gulf of Mexico ahead of a well organized upper low over central Texas. Precipitation is not far behind this increase in clouds ad should begin across western Pennsylvania and New York by mid-evening as light rain showers. Further eastward a period of mostly clear skies have allowed temperures to drop quickly early this evening. By midnight over the interior of eastern upstate New York and western New England temperatures should fall below freezing. When precipitation moves into these areas after midnight it should fall as a mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain with rain to the south along the coastal plain and across the southwestern 2/3rds of Pennsylvania. Across northern New York eastwards to southern Maine skies will remain mostly clear until midnight before these areas begin to cloud over. Temperatures here should drop into the upper teens to low 20's. Even further north over northern Maine a disturbance is moving through in the northern branch of the jet stream which is bringing cloud cover and perhaps a few flurries. Here lows will be in the low to mid 20's.

-------------

Low pressure moves into the region on Monday with precipitation eventually spreading over the entire area by evening. This system has a lot of moisture to work with so precipitation could come down heavy at times. Freezing precipitation over eastern New York and western New England will change over to plain rain by noon as warm air floods into the Northeast. Across northern Maine precipitation could fall as snow, accumulating a few inches by dusk. There's also a chance for some stronger showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder across southeastern Pennsylvania and the southern 2/3rds of New Jersey that could produce strong winds of 40-50mph and heavy downpours. An inch to locally two inches of rain could fall during the day on Monday. Highs will range from the low to mid 30's over northern Maine, upper 30's across northern New York to central New England, low to mid 40's across interior New York and Pennsylvania and upper 40's to mid 50's along the coastal plain to southern New England.

Subtile differences in models begin to show themselves on Monday afternoon into Monday night. NAM is a little stronger/farther north than the GFS with low placement which could have big differences once one heads into northern New England. Will be siding with the GFS as upper flow in the northern branch to the north of the low is very quick. Believe that the NAM is jumping the gun on phasing the northern and southern branches of the jet. In terms of sensible weather, low pressure should pull across the northerntier of New York State and into northern New England during the overnight. Rain will be heavy at times during the evening along the Northeast coast and there is a chance for some low-topped convection as the cold front passes the region. Across extreme northern Maine precipitation could fall in the form of snow or a mixture of snow/sleet and freezing rain which could accumulate several inches. Ahead of the front it will be very mild with temperatures running some 10-15 degrees above normal. As front clears the region rain will taper to scattered showers and it will become breezy.




-------------

Low pressure exits into the Canadian Maritimes on Tuesday with synoptic precipitation ending by noon across New England. Some upslope snow showers are likely during the afternoon hours in moist cyclonic flow. Further west towards the eastern Great Lakes, lake-effect snow will begin around daybreak and continue into the afternoon. Airmass isn't particularly cold behind departing low, limiting instability and lake-effect amounts. Otherwise clearing skies will take hold as the day progresses with high pressure building in from the west. Highs will be right around normal for most of the Northeast with the exception of southeastern New England where area will be warm sectored during the early morning hours before cold front moves through.

High pressure settles over the region Tuesday night ending the lake-effect during the early evening hours. Skies will clear and winds become light making for ideal rediational cooling conditions. Lows will close to seasonal averages, perhaps a few degrees below.

----------

High clouds increase once again on Wednesday as energy coming over the Rockys spawns low pressure in Colorado Tuesday evening that quickly rides the jet stream into the Great Lakes by Wednesday afternoon. A few snow showers could break out over northern New York late in the day, but otherwise the region will remain dry. Temperatures will be near to slightly below average across northern New York into northern New England. Across Pennsylvania to southern New England temperatures will be near to slightly above normal.

Low pressure moves towards the St.Lawrence Valley region on Thursday bringing snow showers across the northerntier of New York into central and northern New England. To the south precipitation will be much more isolated and elevation dependent. This low is able to tap a pretty cold airmass that will be ushered into the region behind its attending cold front. After frontal passage temperatures will remain steady or slowly drop during the day under strong cold air advection. This will likely result in any remaining precipitation changing over to snow and breezy conditions. Lake-effect snow will increase during the afternoon and likely result in light to moderate accumulations by the time the event ends Friday.

Big story on Friday will be the cold with the northern half of the region staying below freezing and the southern half struggling to climb out of the 30's. These readings will be 5-10 degrees below normal. High pressure moves to the south of the region and offshore the Delmarva by evening giving way to an approaching disturbance in an active northern jet. This disturbance will likely spread high clouds into western sections by noon and across the rest of the Northeast by dusk. By evening, scattered snow showers will develop and become more numerous during the overnight.

-------------

Clipper system and its associated snow showers moves across northern New England and offshore on Saturday. Another shot of cold air behind this system will re-activate the lakes and bring temperatures 5-10 degrees below normal over the weekend. Cold Canadian high pressure builds into the area Sunday afternoon in this very winter-like pattern.

-------

Looking ahead

High amplitude ridge is forecast to develop in the Pacific between 150°W and 160°W. This should sharpen downstream trough, dropping decent energy into California. Big questions as we head into the beginning of December of how Pacific energy interacts with cold airmass progged to cover most of the country east of the Rockys. There's a good chance for a significant snowstorm to come out of the southern Rockys and spread across the country during this time. Where the axis of heavy snow sets up and whether or not the Northeast will be affected is still not known. Should have a better idea of what's going on with this system by Tuesday or Wednesday. Any potential snowfall from this system is still over a week away, so there's lots of time to watch this one.

__________________________________________________________



Radar: Northeast Region

NE radar

___________________________________________________________

Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.

---------------------------

Great Lakes SST's 9-29

Great Lakes SST's as of 11/23/2007.

-------

Fillipini's Pond conditions (Lake across street)

11/6: 42°F
11/9: 37°F
11/11: 33°F - 1st morning with grease ice on lake.
11/17: 33°F
11/22: 34°F
11/24: 32°F - patchy ice on lake this morning
11/25: 32°F - lake iced over completely, melting along the shores during the afternoon.

___________________________________________________________



November Daily Weather Statistics

Date___________Hi/Lo____Precip___Sun___Snow

November 1st - 53°F/38°F....0.00"....40%
November 2nd - 52°F/30°F....0.00"....90%
November 3rd - 51°F/35°F....0.00"....30%
November 4th - 48°F/36°F....0.00"....15%
November 5th - 52°F/28°F....0.23"....60%
November 6th - 45°F/36°F....0.26"....40% Trace
November 7th - 37°F/27°F....Trace....40% Trace
November 8th - 37°F/19°F....0.00"....60%
November 9th - 38°F/27°F....0.21"....0% 1.5"
November 10th - 37°F/26°F....0.26"....20% 3.1"
November 11th - 42°F/20°F....0.00"....95%
November 12th - 39°F/24°F....0.12"....0%
November 13th - 54°F/29°F....0.31"....80%
November 14th - 48°F/27°F....0.39"....5%
November 15th - 52°F/35°F....1.53"....0% Trace
November 16th - 37°F/27°F....0.02"....40% 0.1"
November 17th - 36°F/26°F....0.00"....20%
November 18th - 35°F/28°F....0.02"....0% 0.2"
November 19th - 33°F/28°F....0.18"....0% 2.6"
November 20th - 37°F/31°F....0.31"....0% Trace
November 21st - 48°F/37°F....0.02"....0%
November 22nd - 63°F/29°F....0.04"....30%
November 23rd - 31°F/18°F....Trace....75% Trace
November 24th - 32°F/15°F....0.00"....60%
November 25th - 44°F/18°F....0.08"....95% 0.2"



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Updated: 5:15 AM GMT on November 26, 2007

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Rain/snow/wintry mix expected; advisories posted

By: sullivanweather, 7:45 AM GMT on November 24, 2007

Current watches, warnings and advisories.

Winter weather advisories are issued for east-central New York and western New England for the likelyhood of a light mixture of snow, sleet and freezing rain to begin after midnight. Precipitation is expected to change to rain Monday morning.

In central Massachusetts Freezing rain Advisories are posted.

Eastern US current watches/warnings



______________________________

Current Surface Analysis

Current Surface Analysis

__________________________________________________________

Regional Forecast

This weekend will start fair but chilly as high pressure crests over the region Saturday morning. Northern branch trough grazes the northern extremes of the region on Sunday providing some snow showers for the higher terrain of northern New England. By Sunday night low pressure moving northeastwards out of Texas will approach the region. Precipitation will begin to overspread the Northeast from southwest to northeast during the day on Monday. Only precipitation type issues will be over northern New England where enough cold air could hang on for snow or a wintry mix. Airmass behind this low isn't terribly chilly so lake response will be minimal on Tuesday. Next system approaches the Northeast Wednesday night and Thursday. First taste of arctic air blasts into the Northeast behind this front with significant lake-effect snows possible.

---------

Benign weather dominates the Northeast this weekend as sprawling high pressure will move offshore, but remain in control of the sensible weather in the short term. Developing warm air advection around the backside of this high will lead to an increase in cloud cover, mainly high and mid level clouds. Highs this Saturday will be about 5-10 degrees below seasonal norms for late November.

Clouds will continue to increase tonight. With clouds and warming airmass, temperatures Saturday night should average about 5-10 degrees warmer than Friday night. Lows will range from the low 30's along the coastal plain to 20's throughout the interior. Across northern New England lows should drop into the teens.

A northern branch trough skirts by the northern fringes of New England on Sunday, perhaps squeezing out a few snow showers over higher elevations. Elsewhere, a warmer southwesterly flow will develop over the region with temperatures returning to near normal levels for late November. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy with high and mid level cloudiness. Highs will reach close to 50°F along the Jersey Shore, with mid to upper 40's along the coastal plain. Across most of the interior highs will climb into the low to mid 40's with upper 30's expected for northern New York and central and northern New England.

Clouds lower and thicken on Sunday night as a southern stream wave of low pressure approaches from the southwest. Most of the region will remain dry but some light isentropic driven showers could develop after midnight along the New York-Pennsylvania border which could fall as sleet and/or freezing rain as one reaches over towards the Poconos/Catskills. Temperatures will drop about 10 degrees from daytime highs with mid to upper 20's over northern New York and New England. Further south over the interior lows will drop to near freezing by midnight and perhaps coming up a few degrees towards daybreak. Along the coastal plain low will drop into the upper 30's to near 40°F.

----------

Low pressure moves into the Ohio Valley early on Monday with precipitation spreading into the Northeast during the morning hours. Precipitation will gradually pick up in intensity as the day wears on, mainly in the form of rain. On the northern fringes of the precipitation shield there could be a mix of rain and sleet or snow as one heads into extreme northern Maine. Precipitation amounts should range from a half inch to an inch during the day on Monday. These types of amounts could cause some sharp within bank rises of smaller creeks and streams. Main stem rivers could also be brought to half bankful as ground is beginning to freeze up and rainfall should be quick to run-off. Temperatures on Monday should be close to seasonal averages across northern New York and New England to 5-10 degrees above normal from southern Pennsylvania to southern New England as this area gets warm sectored.

Subtile differences in models begin to show themselves on Monday afternoon into Monday night. NAM is a little stronger/farther north than the GFS with low placement which could have big differences once one heads into northern New England. Will be siding with the GFS as upper flow in the northern branch to the north of the low is very quick. Believe that the NAM is jumping the gun on phasing the northern and southern branches of the jet. In terms of sensible weather, low pressure should pull across the northerntier of New York State and into northern New England during the overnight. Rain will be heavy at times during the evening along the Northeast coast and there is a chance for some low-topped convection as the cold front passes the region. Across extreme northern Maine precipitation could fall in the form of snow or a mixture of snow/sleet and freezing rain which could accumulate several inches. Ahead of the front it will be very mild with temperatures running some 10-15 degrees above normal. As front clears the region rain will taper to scattered showers and it will become breezy.

-------------

Low pressure exits into the Canadian Maritimes on Tuesday with synoptic precipitation ending by noon across New England. Some upslope snow showers are likely during the afternoon hours in moist cyclonic flow. Further west towards the eastern Great Lakes, lake-effect snow will begin around daybreak and continue into the afternoon. Airmass isn't particularly cold behind departing low, limiting instability and lake-effect amounts. Otherwise clearing skies will take hold as the day progresses with high pressure building in from the west. Highs will be right around normal for most of the Northeast with the exception of southeastern New England where area will be warm sectored during the early morning hours before cold front moves through.

High pressure settles over the region Tuesday night ending the lake-effect during the early evening hours. Skies will clear and winds become light making for ideal rediational cooling conditions. Lows will close to seasonal averages, perhaps a few degrees below.

----------

High clouds increase once again on Wednesday as energy coming over the Rockys spawns low pressure in Colorado Tuesday evening that quickly rides the jet stream into the Great Lakes by Wednesday afternoon. A few snow showers could break out over northern New York late in the day, but otherwise the region will remain dry. Temperatures will be near to slightly below average across northern New York into northern New England. Across Pennsylvania to southern New England temperatures will be near to slightly above normal.

Low pressure moves towards the St.Lawrence Valley region on Thursday bringing snow showers across the northerntier of New York into central and northern New England. To the south precipitation will be much more isolated and elevation dependent. This low is able to tap a pretty cold airmass that will be ushered into the region behind its attending cold front. After frontal passage temperatures will remain steady or slowly drop during the day under strong cold air advection. This will likely result in any remaining precipitation changing over to snow and breezy conditions. Lake-effect snow will increase during the afternoon and likely result in light to moderate accumulations by the time the event ends Friday.

Big story on Friday will be the cold with the northern half of the region staying below freezing and the southern half struggling to climb out of the 30's. These readings will be 5-10 degrees below normal. High pressure moves to the south of the region and offshore the Delmarva by evening giving way to an approaching disturbance in an active northern jet. This disturbance will likely spread high clouds into western sections by noon and across the rest of the Northeast by dusk. By evening, scattered snow showers will develop and become more numerous during the overnight.

-------------

Clipper system and its associated snow showers moves across northern New England and offshore on Saturday. Another shot of cold air behind this system will re-activate the lakes and bring temperatures 5-10 degrees below normal over the weekend. Cold Canadian high pressure builds into the area Sunday afternoon in this very winter-like pattern.

-------

Looking ahead

High amplitude ridge is forecast to develop in the Pacific between 150°W and 160°W. This should sharpen downstream trough, dropping decent energy into California. Big questions as we head into the beginning of December of how Pacific energy interacts with cold airmass progged to cover most of the country east of the Rockys. There's a good chance for a significant snowstorm to come out of the southern Rockys and spread across the country during this time. Where the axis of heavy snow sets up and whether or not the Northeast will be affected is still not known. Should have a better idea of what's going on with this system by Tuesday or Wednesday. Any potential snowfall from this system is still over a week away, so there's lots of time to watch this one.

__________________________________________________________



Radar: Northeast Region

NE radar

___________________________________________________________

Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.

---------------------------

Great Lakes SST's 9-29

Great Lakes SST's as of 11/23/2007.

-------

Fillipini's Pond conditions (Lake across street)

11/6: 42°F
11/9: 37°F
11/11: 33°F - 1st morning with grease ice on lake.
11/17: 33°F
11/22: 34°F
11/24: 32°F - patchy ice on lake this morning
11/25: 32°F - lake iced over completely, melting along the shores during the afternoon.

___________________________________________________________



November Daily Weather Statistics

Date___________Hi/Lo____Precip___Sun___Snow

November 1st - 53°F/38°F....0.00"....40%
November 2nd - 52°F/30°F....0.00"....90%
November 3rd - 51°F/35°F....0.00"....30%
November 4th - 48°F/36°F....0.00"....15%
November 5th - 52°F/28°F....0.23"....60%
November 6th - 45°F/36°F....0.26"....40% Trace
November 7th - 37°F/27°F....Trace....40% Trace
November 8th - 37°F/19°F....0.00"....60%
November 9th - 38°F/27°F....0.21"....0% 1.5"
November 10th - 37°F/26°F....0.26"....20% 3.1"
November 11th - 42°F/20°F....0.00"....95%
November 12th - 39°F/24°F....0.12"....0%
November 13th - 54°F/29°F....0.31"....80%
November 14th - 48°F/27°F....0.39"....5%
November 15th - 52°F/35°F....1.53"....0% Trace
November 16th - 37°F/27°F....0.02"....40% 0.1"
November 17th - 36°F/26°F....0.00"....20%
November 18th - 35°F/28°F....0.02"....0% 0.2"
November 19th - 33°F/28°F....0.18"....0% 2.6"
November 20th - 37°F/31°F....0.31"....0% Trace
November 21st - 48°F/37°F....0.02"....0%
November 22nd - 63°F/29°F....0.04"....30%
November 23rd - 31°F/18°F....Trace....75% Trace
November 24th - 32°F/15°F....0.00"....60%



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Updated: 9:34 PM GMT on November 25, 2007

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Thanksgiving Storm

By: sullivanweather, 4:57 PM GMT on November 21, 2007

Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings



______________________________

Current Surface Analysis

Current Surface Analysis

__________________________________________________________

Regional Forecast


Lots to discuss this evening as a complex low pressure system developing over the mid Mississippi Valley this evening races east-northeastward towards the Northeast for the Thanksgiving holiday. This system will bring a widespread precipitation event to most of the Northeast, which will mainly fall in the form of rain. However, extreme northern New England should see some snow out of this, with northern Maine being the most likely spot. As low pressure zips by during the evening hours on Thanksgiving it will bring a sharp cold front through the region that'll quickly turn on the lake-effect plumes of snow downwind of the Great Lakes that'll last into Black Friday. High pressure settles over the area over the weekend. A weak shortwave could bring some scattered snow showers to the higher terrain of northern New England Sunday night and Monday morning before another complex southern stream appraoches the beginnning of next week. This storm will be a slow mover, so an evolving scenario will likely unfold as the system appraoches. Following will be the the first true taste of arctic air towards the end of the month.

------------

A warm front lies across the St.Lawrence River Valley this Wednesday evening and cuts across northern Maine. Showers moving along this frontal boundary will become more numerous tonight as the front becomes stationary. Although most of the precipitation will form in the form of rain, across northern Maine precipitation will be in the form of snow. There could also be some spotty freezing rain and drizzle in the higher mountain valleys of northern New York and New England. South of the frontal bounday low clouds and fog will be widespread with occasional mist. Temperatures should hold nearly steady during the overnight with thick cloud cover holding firm. Across northern New York to northern New England temperatures will hover around freezing. To the immediate south of this area temperatures will be in the upper 30's to low 40's. From northern Pennsylvania to southern New England temperatures will spend the night in the mid 40's. Along the coastal plain, upper 40's to low 50's will do. Winds will be light and variable but picking up towards daybreak out of the south.

-----------

Thanksgiving morning surface map

-----------

Low pressure will be over Ohio Thanksgiving morning, moving rapidly northeastward along stationary front draped just north of the US-Canadian border then on into northern Maine. Increasing southerly wind will scour out the persistant fog across the southern half of the region during the morning hours. Across the northern and western sections of the region precipitation will become steadier and heavier. Over northern Maine this precipitation will be coming down in the form of snow which should accumulate 2-4" during the morning hours. To the immediate south, across the higher terrain of northern New York, Vermont and New Hampshire, a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain could be expected with a light glazing of trees and power lines. Further south precipitation will be in the form of rain. Southern cut-off to the steady precipitation will be across north-central New York, to the Capitol District to southern New hampshire. South of that line expect mainly cloudy weather with an occasional shower. Temperatures during the morning will range from the mid 50's to near 60°F along the southern coastal plain. Upper 40's to low 50's south of the precipitation across the interior. Once one heads into the precipitation temperatures will range from the upper 30's to the mid 40's across north-central New York over to central New England. Across northern New England temperatures will range from the low 30's across northern Maine and higher terrain to the upper 30's in the valleys.

------------

Thanksgiving evening - Surface map

------------

Low pressure moves into the Northeast Thanksgiving afternoon and evening across western Pennsylvania to northern New York. Sharpening baroclinic zone will help to intensify low pressure as it heads across the northeast and sharpen the rain/snow line in an area of intensifying precipitation. Areas a mere 40 miles apart could see little snow, while neighbors to their north could get half a foot. This is be the most challenging part of this forecast heading from the afternoon into the overnight, as with any storm - deciphering where the transition zone will set-up.

This zone will fluctuate over northern New England during this timespan, but should swing southeastward over New York during the evening as low pressure moves by and strong CAA follows quickly behind. From north-central New York into central and northern New England three quarters to one and one quarters of an inch of precipitation is expected to fall with this system. So not only will there be a snow event in northern Maine, but where precipitation falls as rain some sharp within bank rises of smaller streams and creeks can occur along with some poor drainage flooding. It has been wet as of late. Across the southern half of the region, this event will mainly be a cold frontal passage with some scattered showers transitioning into a period of moderate to heavy precipitation before the cold frontal passage with some scattered sprikles/flurries behind it.

Temperatures, initially mild ahead of the front, will quickly drop 10-15 degrees within 3 hours of its passage and slowly drop thereafter.

Expected snowfall totals from Wed-Fri

snowfall forecast

Lake-effect gets going after midnight once flow become better aligned. Multibands should kick the event off during the evening hours on Thanksgiving. As the night progresses multi-bands could organize into one or two main bands of snow which could drop a quick 2-4" of snow before daybreak.

--------

Lake-effect continues into Friday, but weakens and lifts northward during the afternoon hours as low-levels dry and flow turns anti-cyclonic. An additional inch or two of snow could fall as lake effect transitions towards the north. Snow across northern New England will have tapered to flurries by morning. Six inches of snow or more could round things out over northern Maine. Elsewhere skies will be partly cloudy with a blustery winds during the morning hours before high pressure builds into the region by afternoon. Temperatures will be noticeably colder with highs only struggling to make it into the low 40's along the coastal plain from southern New England south. Across the interior highs will only climb into the 30's with upper 20's across the higher terrain and Northern New York and New England.

__________________________________________________________



Radar: Northeast Region

NE radar

___________________________________________________________

Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.

---------------------------

Great Lakes SST's 9-29

Great Lakes SST's as of 11/23/2007.

-------

Temperature of lake across the street as of 11/11 at 7:30am: 33°F. This was the first morning patchy grease ice was observed.

___________________________________________________________



November Daily Weather Statistics

Date___________Hi/Lo____Precip___Sun___Snow

November 1st - 53°F/38°F....0.00"....40%
November 2nd - 52°F/30°F....0.00"....90%
November 3rd - 51°F/35°F....0.00"....30%
November 4th - 48°F/36°F....0.00"....15%
November 5th - 52°F/28°F....0.23"....60%
November 6th - 45°F/36°F....0.26"....40% Trace
November 7th - 37°F/27°F....Trace....40% Trace
November 8th - 37°F/19°F....0.00"....60%
November 9th - 38°F/27°F....0.21"....0% 1.5"
November 10th - 37°F/26°F....0.26"....20% 3.1"
November 11th - 42°F/20°F....0.00"....95%
November 12th - 39°F/24°F....0.12"....0%
November 13th - 54°F/29°F....0.31"....80%
November 14th - 48°F/27°F....0.39"....5%
November 15th - 52°F/35°F....1.53"....0% Trace
November 16th - 37°F/27°F....0.02"....40% 0.1"
November 17th - 36°F/26°F....0.00"....20%
November 18th - 35°F/28°F....0.02"....0% 0.2"
November 19th - 33°F/28°F....0.18"....0% 2.6"
November 20th - 37°F/31°F....0.31"....0% Trace
November 21st - 48°F/37°F....0.02"....0%
November 22nd - 63°F/29°F....0.04"....30%
November 23rd - 31°F/18°F....Trace....75% Trace



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Updated: 6:03 AM GMT on November 24, 2007

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Winter Weather/Snow Advisories posted

By: sullivanweather, 3:38 PM GMT on November 20, 2007

Snow totals from this morning

Keene, NH ----------------------- 2.0"
Hartford, CT -------------------- 1.0"
Paxton, MA ---------------------- 2.5"
Greenfield, MA ------------------ 2.0"
Rutland, VT --------------------- 1.1"
Eden, VT ------------------------ 3.7"
Waterbury, VT ------------------- 2.0"
North Adams, MA ----------------- 3.0"



Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings

Winter weather advisories are posted for sections of eastern New York and New England for a wintry mix of precipitation. Across western Maine snow advisories are posted for the likelyhood of 2-4 inches of snow.

______________________________

Current Surface Analysis

Current Surface Analysis

__________________________________________________________

Regional Forecast

Tuesday will be mostly cloudy across the Northeast with a light wintry mix of precipitation moving across northern New York into central and northern New England and rain showers further south and west. Eastern and northern New England could see a 1-3" snowfall as precipitation moves through the area during the late morning and into the afternoon. Across the rest of central New England and northeastern New York State a light accumulation of freezing rain could make for very difficult travel conditions during the morning hours, but most ice accretion should melt by afternoon. High's on Tuesday will reach the 30's across central and northern New England and northeastern New York State. Across the rest of the interior highs will make it into the 40's beginning the melting process for the half foot of snow that now blankets central Pennsylvania. Along the Jersey Coast, including New York City and Long Island temperatures could crack 50°F.

Weak ridging moves into the region Tuesday night with lingering rain and snow showers exiting the New England coast before midnight. Warm front that moves into the area becomes stationary along the US-Canadain border as it becomes aligned to te upper level flow. A new wave of low pressure developing in the Ohio Valley along this frontal boundary could spread some light showers back into western sections of New York and Pennsylvania before dawn. Further east, partly to mostly cloudy skies will hang in over the region Tuesday night preventing low temperatures from dropping too far. Across northern New York and New England temperatures will drop below freezing however with lows in the upper 20's to around 30°F expected. With moist airmass in place black ice due to freezing fog is of particualar concern here. Elsewhere across the interior lows will fall into the 30's with low 40's along the coast from southern New England south.



------------------------

Most of the Northeast will lie in the warm sector on Wednesday as front remains stationary around the US-Canadian border. One wave of low pressure riding up along this front will provide the chance for some rain showers from western Pennsylvania and New York, northeastward into northern New England. Only extreme northern Maine has a chance of seeing any frozen precipitation during the day on Wednesday. Further south skies will be mostly cloudy with a light southwesterly breeze and perhaps a stray rain shower. Temperatures here will climb into the upper 40's across the interior to the mid 50's along the coastal plain. These temperatures will be 5-10 degrees above normal for this time of year, a big turnaround from Sunday's and Monday's wintry weather, which should be mostly gone by Wednesday afternoon. Closer to the frontal boundary temperatures won't climb as far with low 40's expected except for far northern Maine which could see highs only reach the mid 30's. Especially if the front fails to move north of the area.

Models begin to diverge in their soultions Wednesday night as some start to bring stationary front back down to the south as a cold front, and some leave it hung up along the US-Canadian border. This forecaster believes this front should begin its southward push at this juncture in time. Stronger northern branch jet and flat ridge, which shouldn't amplify much due to bagginess along the front instead of one large impluse, should allow for this southward movement to commence. Expect precipitation over northern New York and New England to transition back from liquid to frozen form as the night begins before tapering due to first wave of low pressure. Across central New York to central New England precipitation should fall as rain before tapering to a showery wintry mix before daybreak. The coastal plain from New York City south should escape the main area of precipitation with only a few stray showers expected and perhaps some patchy fog in moist airmass. Temperatures here should only fall back into the 40's with perhaps some low 50's along the south Jersey Shore. Across the interior temperatures will drop back into the upper 30's to low 40's south of the front. North of the front lows will drop into the low 30's.

Interesting forecast shaping up for Thanksgiving as another wave of low pressure riding along frontal boundary appraoches from the west. Frontal placement will be crucial in determining precipitation type. Front will slowly be sagging towards the south as well complcating the issue even further. Believe front will begin the day draped across the NY/PA border over to coastal Maine. Tansition zone from liquid to frozen/freezing precipitation will lie about 25-50 miles behind the front. As front works it way southward during the day a wave of low pressure will develop along the front and move through the Northeast. Cold air filtering in behind this front will change rain over to a wintry mix across northern Pennsylvania, south-central, New York and central New England. Further south precipitation should remain in the form of rain. High temperatures on Thanksgiving day will likely be reached during the morning hours before falling slowly as the day progresses after the front passes through. Across northern New York and New England temperatures will likely remain in the upper 20's to low 30's. Across central New York and New England temperatures will begin the day in the mid 30's and slowly fall to near freezing or a degree or two below by late afternoon. From northern and western Pennsylvania to southern New England temperatures will begin the day in the 40's and slowly fall to the middle 30's while along the coastal plain temperatures will begin the day in the mid 40's, rising to the upper 40's to near 50°F.

Thanksgiving morning - surface map

----------

Wave of low pressure bisects the Northeast Thanksgiving evening with wintry precipitation to the north of the low track and rain south. Precipitation will taper quickly after the passage of the low. Cold air funneling into the region behind this front will activate the lake-effect machine with several inches of accumulation occuring downwind of Lakes Erie and Ontario. Elsewhere across the Northeast there will be clearing skies on a brisk northwesterly breeze. Temperatures will drop into the teens and 20's across northern New York and New England. Upper 20's to low 30's will be common across the rest of the interior with mid to upper 30's along the coastal plain. Urban areas of New York City and Philadelphia and along the south Jersey Shore will remain in the low 40's.

Thanksgiving evening - Surface map

-----------

Lake-effect snow will continue into Black Friday with several more inches of accumulation on the heels of the seasons' coldest airmass thus far. There cold also be some stray upslope snow showers across the higher elevations of New England. Elsewhere expect partly cloudy skies with a biting northwesterly breeze. Temperatures will be dropping 5-10 degrees below normal once again. Highs across the northern half of the region should remain below freezing on Friday. Across the interior of the southern half of the Northeast highs will slowly climb into the 30's with low 40's along the coast and in the urban areas of New York City and Philadelphia.

High pressure moves into the region Friday night shutting down the lake effect snows and bringing the coldest night this season thus far across most of the Northeast. High remains anchored over the region on Saturday with temperatures continuing to average 5-10 degrees below normal. Clouds move back into the region during the 2nd half of the weekend as a southern stream disturbance gets organized along the Gulf Coast. This will be one to watch as we head into the beginning of next week.

__________________________________________________________



Radar: Northeast Region

NE radar

___________________________________________________________

Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.

---------------------------

Great Lakes SST's 9-29

Great Lakes SST's as of 11/02/2007.

-------

Temperature of lake across the street as of 11/11 at 7:30am: 33°F. This was the first morning patchy grease ice was observed.

___________________________________________________________



November Daily Weather Statistics

Date___________Hi/Lo____Precip___Sun___Snow

November 1st - 53°F/38°F....0.00"....40%
November 2nd - 52°F/30°F....0.00"....90%
November 3rd - 51°F/35°F....0.00"....30%
November 4th - 48°F/36°F....0.00"....15%
November 5th - 52°F/28°F....0.23"....60%
November 6th - 45°F/36°F....0.26"....40% Trace
November 7th - 37°F/27°F....Trace....40% Trace
November 8th - 37°F/19°F....0.00"....60%
November 9th - 38°F/27°F....0.21"....0% 1.5"
November 10th - 37°F/26°F....0.26"....20% 3.1"
November 11th - 42°F/20°F....0.00"....95%
November 12th - 39°F/24°F....0.12"....0%
November 13th - 54°F/29°F....0.31"....80%
November 14th - 48°F/27°F....0.39"....5%
November 15th - 52°F/35°F....1.53"....0% Trace
November 16th - 37°F/27°F....0.02"....40% 0.1"
November 17th - 36°F/26°F....0.00"....20%
November 18th - 35°F/28°F....0.02"....0% 0.2"
November 19th - 33°F/28°F....0.18"....0% 2.6"



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Updated: 6:53 PM GMT on November 20, 2007

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Snow totals - PA/NY/NJ

By: sullivanweather, 2:15 PM GMT on November 19, 2007

Snow totals from 11/17-19 storm

Blakeslee, PA -------------------- 5.5"
Tobyhanna, PA -------------------- 10.0"
Allentown, PA -------------------- 3.2"
Fredricksville, PA --------------- 7.0"
State College, PA ---------------- 4.0"
Williamsport, PA ----------------- 3.8"
Laurel Summit, PA ---------------- 2.5"
Rockton, PA ---------------------- 3.0"
Sylvania, PA --------------------- 6.0"
Hazelton, PA --------------------- 10.0"
Alba, PA ------------------------- 8.3"
Mount Pocono, PA ----------------- 6.0"
Tannersville, PA ----------------- 6.5"
Binghamton, NY ------------------- 4.0"
North Caldwell, NJ --------------- 2.0"
Bethel, NY* ---------------------- 2.8"
Laporte, PA ---------------------- 10.0"
Benton, PA ----------------------- 7.7"
Pocono Summit, PA ---------------- 8.5"
Canton, PA ----------------------- 8.0"
Bear Creek Dam, PA --------------- 11.0"
Towanda, PA ---------------------- 5.0"
South Canaan, Pa ----------------- 8.0"
Newton, NJ ----------------------- 5.2"
Stroudsburg, PA --------------- -- 7.0"




Current Surface Analysis

Current Surface Analysis

__________________________________________________________

Regional Forecast

Snow and rain showers are slowly beginning to exit the region late this morning after leaving behind a 1-4" valley accumulation to a 4-10" accumulation across the higher terrain. Only an additional inch or so is expected this afternoon before precipitation from this system ends. Highs across the far interior of New England will only rise into the 20's. Elsewhere highs will reach the 30's with some 40's along the south Jersey Shore and in western New York and Pennsylvania.

As one system exits, another moves in tonight quickly on it's heels. Clouds will increase from the west once again as an area of warm advection precipitation moves into the region in association with an approaching warm front. Rain showers should break out across western Pennsylvania and New York during the evening hours and spread eastward. Once precipitation reaches east-central New York after midnight, air could be cold enough for a mixture of snow/sleet and freezing rain. Across New Hampshire and Maine high pressure should hold off this advancing area of clouds and precipitation one more night allowing for ideal radiational cooling with temperatures here dropping into the teens. Interior eastern New York and western New England should drop into the 20's with 30's expected along the coastal plain and western sections of the region where warm air will begin to flood in on a southwesterly breeze.


Tuesday will be mostly cloudy across the Northeast with a light wintry mix of precipitation moving across central and Northern New England and rain showers further south and west. Areas of northern Maine and New Hampshire could see a 1-3" snowfall as precipitation moves through the area during the afternoon. Across the rest of central New England and northeastern New York State a light accumulation of freezing rain could make for very difficult travel conditions during the morning hours, but most ice accretion should melt by afternoon. High's on Tuesday will reach the 30's across central and northern New England and northeastern New York State. Across the rest of the interior highs will make it into the 40's beginning the melting process for the half foot of snow that now blankets central Pennsylvania. Along the Jersey Coast, including New York City and Long Island temperatures could crack 50°F.

Weak ridging moves into the region Tuesday night with lingering rain and snow showers exiting the New England coast before midnight. Warm front that moves into the area becomes stationary along the US-Canadain border as it becomes aligned to te upper level flow. A new wave of low pressure developing in the Ohio Valley along this frontal boundary could spread some light showers back into western sections of New York and Pennsylvania before dawn. Further east, partly to mostly cloudy skies will hang in over the region Tuesday night preventing low temperatures from dropping too far. Across northern New York and New England temperatures will drop below freezing however with lows in the upper 20's to around 30°F expected. With moist airmass in place black ice due to freezing fog is of particualar concern here. Elsewhere across the interior lows will fall into the 30's with low 40's along the coast from southern New England south.

------------------------

Most of the Northeast will lie in the warm sector on Wednesday as front remains stationary around the US-Canadian border. One wave of low pressure riding up along this front will provide the chance for some rain showers from western Pennsylvania and New York, northeastward into northern New England. Only extreme northern Maine has a chance of seeing any frozen precipitation during the day on Wednesday. Further south skies will be mostly cloudy with a light southwesterly breeze and perhaps a stray rain shower. Temperatures here will climb into the upper 40's across the interior to the mid 50's along the coastal plain. These temperatures will be 5-10 degrees above normal for this time of year, a big turnaround from Sunday's and Monday's wintry weather, which should be mostly gone by Wednesday afternoon. Closer to the frontal boundary temperatures won't climb as far with low 40's expected except for far northern Maine which could see highs only reach the mid 30's. Especially if the front fails to move north of the area.

Models begin to diverge in their soultions Wednesday night as some start to bring stationary front back down to the south as a cold front, and some leave it hung up along the US-Canadian border. This forecaster believes this front should begin its southward push at this juncture in time. Stronger northern branch jet and flat ridge, which shouldn't amplify much due to bagginess along the front instead of one large impluse, should allow for this southward movement to commence. Expect precipitation over northern New York and New England to transition back from liquid to frozen form as the night begins before tapering due to first wave of low pressure. Across central New York to central New England precipitation should fall as rain before tapering to a showery wintry mix before daybreak. The coastal plain from New York City south should escape the main area of precipitation with only a few stray showers expected and perhaps some patchy fog in moist airmass. Temperatures here should only fall back into the 40's with perhaps some low 50's along the south Jersey Shore. Across the interior temperatures will drop back into the upper 30's to low 40's south of the front. North of the front lows will drop into the low 30's.

Interesting forecast shaping up for Thanksgiving as another wave of low pressure riding along frontal boundary appraoches from the west. Frontal placement will be crucial in determining precipitation type. Front will slowly be sagging towards the south as well complcating the issue even further. Believe front will begin the day draped across the NY/PA border over to coastal Maine. Tansition zone from liquid to frozen/freezing precipitation will lie about 25-50 miles behind the front. As front works it way southward during the day a wave of low pressure will develop along the front and move through the Northeast. Cold air filtering in behind this front will change rain over to a wintry mix across northern Pennsylvania, south-central, New York and central New England. Further south precipitation should remain in the form of rain. High temperatures on Thanksgiving day will likely be reached during the morning hours before falling slowly as the day progresses after the front passes through. Across northern New York and New England temperatures will likely remain in the upper 20's to low 30's. Across central New York and New England temperatures will begin the day in the mid 30's and slowly fall to near freezing or a degree or two below by late afternoon. From northern and western Pennsylvania to southern New England temperatures will begin the day near 40°F and slowly fall to the lower to middle 30's while along the coastal plain temperatures will begin the day in the mid 40's, rising to the upper 40's to near 50°F.

----------

Front continues southward Thanksgiving evening as wave of low pressure quickly moves off the coast. Precipitation will end from northwest to southeast across the southern portions of the region tapering to scattered showers and flurries. Cold air funneling into the region behind this front will activate the lake-effect machine with several inches of accumulation occuring downwind of Lakes Erie and Ontario. Elsewhere across the Northeast there will be clearing skies on a brisk northwesterly breeze. Temperatures will drop into the teens and 20's across northern New York and New England. Upper 20's to low 30's will be common across the rest of the interior with mid to upper 30's along the coastal plain. Urban areas of New York City and Philadelphia and along the south Jersey Shore will remain in the low 40's.

Lake-effect snow will continue into Black Friday with several more inches of accumulation on the heels of the seasons' coldest airmass thus far. There cold also be some stray upslope snow showers across the higher elevations of New England. Elsewhere expect partly cloudy skies with a biting northwesterly breeze. Temperatures will be dropping 5-10 degrees below normal once again. Highs across the northern half of the region should remain below freezing on Friday. Across the interior of the southern half of the Northeast highs will slowly climb into the 30's with low 40's along the coast and in the urban areas of New York City and Philadelphia.

High pressure moves into the region Friday night shutting down the lake effect snows and bringing the coldest night this season thus far across most of the Northeast. High remains anchored over the region on Saturday with temperatures continuing to average 5-10 degrees below normal. Clouds move back into the region during the 2nd half of the weekend as a southern stream disturbance gets organized along the Gulf Coast. This will be one to watch as we head into the beginning of next week.

__________________________________________________________



Radar: Northeast Region

NE radar

___________________________________________________________

Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.

---------------------------

Great Lakes SST's 9-29

Great Lakes SST's as of 11/02/2007.

-------

Temperature of lake across the street as of 11/11 at 7:30am: 33°F. This was the first morning patchy grease ice was observed.

___________________________________________________________



November Daily Weather Statistics

Date___________Hi/Lo____Precip___Sun___Snow

November 1st - 53°F/38°F....0.00"....40%
November 2nd - 52°F/30°F....0.00"....90%
November 3rd - 51°F/35°F....0.00"....30%
November 4th - 48°F/36°F....0.00"....15%
November 5th - 52°F/28°F....0.23"....60%
November 6th - 45°F/36°F....0.26"....40% Trace
November 7th - 37°F/27°F....Trace....40% Trace
November 8th - 37°F/19°F....0.00"....60%
November 9th - 38°F/27°F....0.21"....0% 1.5"
November 10th - 37°F/26°F....0.26"....20% 3.1"
November 11th - 42°F/20°F....0.00"....95%
November 12th - 39°F/24°F....0.12"....0%
November 13th - 54°F/29°F....0.31"....80%
November 14th - 48°F/27°F....0.39"....5%
November 15th - 52°F/35°F....1.53"....0% Trace
November 16th - 37°F/27°F....0.02"....40% 0.1"
November 17th - 36°F/26°F....0.00"....20%
November 18th - 35°F/28°F....0.02"....0% 0.2"
November 19th - 33°F/28°F....0.18"....0% 2.6"



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Updated: 3:06 PM GMT on November 20, 2007

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Snow Advisories Issued

By: sullivanweather, 10:53 AM GMT on November 17, 2007

Snow reports as of 7am

Blakeslee, PA -------------------- 5.5"
Tobyhanna, PA -------------------- 10.0"
Allentown, PA -------------------- 2.6"
Fredricksville, PA --------------- 5.5"
State College, PA ---------------- 4.0"
Williamsport, PA ----------------- 2.3"
Laurel Summit, PA ---------------- 2.5"
Rockton, PA ---------------------- 3.0"
Sylvania, PA --------------------- 6.0"
Hazelton, PA --------------------- 5.0"
Alba, PA ------------------------- 8.3"
Mount Pocono, PA ----------------- 6.0"
Tannersville, PA ----------------- 6.5"
Binghamton, NY ------------------- 4.0"
North Caldwell, NJ --------------- 2.0"
Bethel, NY ----------------------- 2.2"


Current Surface Analysis

Current Surface Analysis

__________________________________________________________


Regional Forecast

Clipper system that has been forecast to breeze by the area depositing a light precipitative event now appears not to be clicking its heels and could hang around just long enough for an advisory level snowfall across northeast Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey and inland southeastern New York. High pressure builds in its wake for a chilly Monday and Monday night. Temperatures begin to moderate on Tuesday as high moves offshore and southerly flow develops. Low pressure moves into Canada via the Great Lakes Wednesday night and Thursday, dragging a cold front through the region. Lake effect/higher terrain snow develops in its wake as a large polar airmass decends across the northern 2/3rds of the country by next weekend.

-----------

Rather tranquil weather to start this weekend aside from the lake effect snows. These lake effect snow showers should gradually weaken this morning, with up to an inch of additional accumulation. Elsewhere partly cloudy to mostly clear skies to start the day with a light breeze.

Very complicated scenario unfolding for the rest this weekend as a clipper diving into the Northern Plains states quickly moves into western Pennsylvania by this evening. Mid and high level clouds will begin to stream in very quickly from the west late this morning into this afternoon across the southern half of the region. Highs will reach into the 40's along the coastal plain from southern New England south then westward across southern Pennsylvania. Into the interior highs should only rise to the 30's. Winds will be variable as flow backs due to approaching clipper.

Light rain and snow showers should break out by late afternoon across western New York and Pennsylvania and spread their way eastward as the evening progresses. Across the higher elevations of northern Pennsylvania and the Laurel Highlands an inch or two of snow should fall during the overnight. Similar accumulations should occur over the southeastern Catskills and northern New Jersey. Closer to the coast precipitation should transition over to rain or a rain/snow mix. A surface ridge will be building into northern New England. Combined with a confluent flow skies should be mostly clear with cold overnight lows in the teens. Across central New York over to central and southern New England lows should fall into the 20's as clouds will be on the increase from clipper system. Under the precipitation lows will range from the upper 20's across the higher terrain to near freezing across interoir valleys to the middle and upper 30's along the coastal plain.

------------

Energy reaches the coast on Sunday and redevelops an area of low pressure off the Delmarva which will be very slow to move. As high pressure builds into northern New England flow will turn onshore and there will be better moisture transport into the Northeast off the Atlantic Ocean. This will result in continued rain and/or snow across the eastern half of Pennsylvania, New Jersey, southern New York and southern New England. Elevations higher than 1400' should remain all snow during the day on Sunday. Lower elevations should see a changeover to rain. Higher elevations of the Poconos and Catskills should see an additional 1-3" of snowfall during the day Sunday. Across northern New York and New England skies will remain mostly clear under a strong dry high. High temperatures will reach the low 40's along the coastal plain with 30's across the rest of the interior. High elevations of northern New York and New England could remain in the 20's.

Upper trough pulls through the region Sunday night keeping precipitation held over the same areas. A gradual changeover to snow should occur after dusk that should extend to the coast before precipitation ends towards daybreak. An additional 2-3" of snow could fall over the higher elevations with a coating to an inch or so over the coastal plain. With system slowly pulling offshore the cloud edge will be slow to erode, but areas that do clear out should see temperatures drop to the lowest levels this year. Lower teens across northern New York and New England with upper teens across the rest of the Northeast away from the cloud cover. In the areas affected by the trough lows should drop into the 20's across the interior with 30's closer to the coast.

Snow Accumulations This Weekend
Snow Saturday night - Sunday night

-------------

Rest of forecast to follow soon.

___________________________________________________________

Radar: Northeast Region

NE radar

___________________________________________________________

Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.

---------------------------

Great Lakes SST's 9-29

Great Lakes SST's as of 11/02/2007.

-------

Temperature of lake across the street as of 11/11 at 7:30am: 33°F. This was the first morning patchy grease ice was observed.

___________________________________________________________



November Daily Weather Statistics

Date___________Hi/Lo____Precip___Sun___Snow

November 1st - 53°F/38°F....0.00"....40%
November 2nd - 52°F/30°F....0.00"....90%
November 3rd - 51°F/35°F....0.00"....30%
November 4th - 48°F/36°F....0.00"....15%
November 5th - 52°F/28°F....0.23"....60%
November 6th - 45°F/36°F....0.26"....40% Trace
November 7th - 37°F/27°F....Trace....40% Trace
November 8th - 37°F/19°F....0.00"....60%
November 9th - 38°F/27°F....0.21"....0% 1.5"
November 10th - 37°F/26°F....0.26"....20% 3.1"
November 11th - 42°F/20°F....0.00"....95%
November 12th - 39°F/24°F....0.12"....0%
November 13th - 54°F/29°F....0.31"....80%
November 14th - 48°F/27°F....0.39"....5%
November 15th - 52°F/35°F....1.53"....0% Trace
November 16th - 37°F/27°F....0.02"....40% 0.1"
November 17th - 36°F/26°F....0.00"....20%
November 18th - 35°F/28°F....0.02"....0% 0.2"



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Updated: 2:13 PM GMT on November 19, 2007

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Heavy snow in Northeast Kingdom

By: sullivanweather, 6:23 PM GMT on November 16, 2007

Current Surface Analysis

Current Surface Analysis

Regional Forecast

-------------

Well organized lake-effect snow plume coming off Lake Ontario this overnight with Georgain Bay connection which could drop a solid 2-5 inch snowfall down the Mohawk Valley, in the northwest Catskills and the southern Tug hill Plateau region. Smaller, weaker lake effect snow bands are dropping of Lake Erie as well. After daybreak these bands should weaken and shift towards the north as flow backs in reponse to approaching clipper system. A few stray upslope snow showers still persist across the higher terrain of northern New England. Elsewhere across the Northeast partly cloudy and breezy conditons will round out the overnight.

Snowfall through Sat afternoon

Clouds begin to increase from the west once again Saturday as a weak clipper disturbace drops down into the region.
PVA driven light rain and snow showers will break out during the morning hours across western New York and Pennsylvania and spread across the southern half of the Northeast as the day progresses. Moisture is lacking with this system as it crosses through the area so only expect an inch or two of snow or a tenth to two tenths of an inch of rainfall. Across far northern New England some upslope snow showers will still be present around the large circulation from Thursday/Friday's storm system, but these will taper. High's will reach the low 40's along the southern coastal plain with 30's across most of the interior
except for the higher elevations of northern New York and New England where highs might not make it out of the 20's.

As clipper pulls east coastal redevelopment is likely to occur allowing some moisture to be thrown back along coastal areas from northern New Jersey to southern New England. This could provide these areas with the seasons' first snowfall Saturday night. Boundary layer temperatures are marginal to support snowfall but should get low enough after midnight. High pressure is right on this disturbances' heels, so lake response should be minimal with perhaps an inch or two of lake effect Saturday night before atmosphere drys and flow turns anti-cyclonic. Saturday night will be very chilly with lows along the coast from southern New England south falling to the low to mid 30's. Across the interior and northern New England coast lows will drop into the 20's with teens across the far north.

Any lingering snow showers along the coast will quickly taper Sunday morning as high pressure builds into the region with clearing skies. It will be quite chilly on Sunday as well with below freezing temperatures across the northern half of the Northeast with the southern half staying in the 30's. Perhaps the southern New Jersey shore could crack 40°F but that will be as warm as it gets.

With strong dome of high pressure over the region Sunday night a large portion of the Northeast could see its coldest night of the season as clear skies and light winds providing ideal radiational cooling conditions. Lows will drop below freezing area-wide with 20's covering a large portion of the coastal plain and southern half of the interior. Across the north where fresh snow cover will be present lows will have no trouble dropping into the teens with single digits possible in some of the colder mountain valley locations.

------------

High pressure remains anchored over the region on Monday. Despite the clear skies temperatures will be running around 5 degrees below normal. Expect highs to reach into the 40's along the coastal plain with 30's across the interior and 20's over the higher elevations of the Northeast Kingdom.

*Monday night through Black Friday to follow soon




___________________________________________________________

Radar: Northeast Region

NE radar

___________________________________________________________

Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.

---------------------------

Great Lakes SST's 9-29

Great Lakes SST's as of 11/02/2007.

-------

Temperature of lake across the street as of 11/11 at 7:30am: 33°F. This was the first morning patchy grease ice was observed.

___________________________________________________________



November Daily Weather Statistics

Date___________Hi/Lo____Precip___Sun___Snow

November 1st - 53°F/38°F....0.00"....40%
November 2nd - 52°F/30°F....0.00"....90%
November 3rd - 51°F/35°F....0.00"....30%
November 4th - 48°F/36°F....0.00"....15%
November 5th - 52°F/28°F....0.23"....60%
November 6th - 45°F/36°F....0.26"....40% Trace
November 7th - 37°F/27°F....Trace....40% Trace
November 8th - 37°F/19°F....0.00"....60%
November 9th - 38°F/27°F....0.21"....0% 1.5"
November 10th - 37°F/26°F....0.26"....20% 3.1"
November 11th - 42°F/20°F....0.00"....95%
November 12th - 39°F/24°F....0.12"....0%
November 13th - 54°F/29°F....0.31"....80%
November 14th - 48°F/27°F....0.39"....5%
November 15th - 52°F/35°F....1.53"....0% Trace
November 16th - 37°F/27°F....0.02"....40% 0.1"



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Updated: 8:28 AM GMT on November 17, 2007

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Winter Storm warnings for Northeast Kingdom.

By: sullivanweather, 7:06 PM GMT on November 15, 2007

Current Surface Analysis

Current Surface Analysis

__________________________________________________________

Regional Forecast

Strong cold front draped across the Northeast and now beginning to take on anafront characteristics as upper trough tilts negative and low pressure rapidly develops near Long Island. Rain is changing over to snow across the higher elevations of New York and Pennsylvania and should begin to changeover by evening across western New England. Winter Storm warnings are now posted for the Northeast Kingdom where upslope areas could receive over 6 inches of the white stuff. Across the lower elevations of New York and most of New England rain is falling heavy at times which could produce ponding of water in low lying and poor drainage areas, especially where leaves are clogging storm drains.

Front will continue to pull eastward tonight as low pressure moves northeastward, just inland of the coast. Rain will continue to across eastern New England with a changeover to snow expected across lower elevations of western New England as colder air filters into the area. Upslope areas of the Adirondacks and the Green and White mountains of Vermont and New Hampshire snow will come down steady and accumulate 3-6 inches tonight. Winds will pick up out of the Northwest as low pressure begins to rapidly intensify. Lake effect snows will be on the increase tonight as cold northwest winds blow over the relativly warm lake waters, dropping 2-4 inches of snow in favored areas southeast of the lakes. Low temperatures tonight will fall back into the 20's across New York, Pennsylvania and higher elevations of western New England. Closer to the coast and across eastern New England lows will drop into the 30's. Downeast Maine could be held in the 40's with strong onshore flow of southerly winds out ahead of the cold front as it should not pass through this area until Friday morning.

--------------

Friday morning low pressure continues to wrap up and pull northwards, moving into Canada by afternoon which should bring a changeover to snow across the rest of northern and eastern New England before precipitation tapers. Across the upslope areas of the Northeast Kingdom snow will continue to fall, accumulating an additional 3-6 inches during the day on Friday. Lake effect snows will continue during the day on Friday downwind on Lakes Erie and Ontario with an additional couple of inches of snowfall. Winds out of the northwest behind the front will gust over 30mph which will cause blowing and drifting of the snow. High's across the Northeast will range from the 30's across the interior with 40's closer to the coast. Early highs in the 40's across Maine should drop off quickly after the frontal passage back into the 30's.

Low pressure continues to wrap up over eastern Canada Friday night retrograding northwestward. High pressure building down behind low actually moves south of the area into the Mid-Atlantic States. This should keep and cold flow of winds moving over the lakes, but flow goes anti-cyclonic and moisture dries up some. This should push bands northwards and weaken them as the night progresses. None-the-less an additional couple of inches of snow could fall as these bands traverse northwards. Elsewhere partly cloudy skies should dominate the skies across the northeast with gradually diminishing winds. Across the interior of the Northeast lows will drop into the 20's with teens possible across the higher elevations of northern New York and New England. Along coastal areas lows will drop into the 30's.

Snowfall through Saturday morning (updated 630pm 11/15)

Snowfall through Sat am

-------------

Clouds begin to increase from the west once again Saturday as a weak clipper disturbace drops down into the region.
PVA driven light rain and snow showers will break out during the morning hours across western New York and Pennsylvania and spread across the southern half of the Northeast as the day progresses. Moisture is lacking with this system as it crosses through the area so only expect an inch or two of snow or a tenth to two tenths of an inch of rainfall. Across far northern New England some upslope snow showers will still be present around the large circulation from Thursday/Friday's storm system, but these will taper. High's will reach the low 40's along the southern coastal plain with 30's across most of the interior
except for the higher elevations of northern New York and New England where highs might not make it out of the 20's.

As clipper pulls east coastal redevelopment is likely to occur allowing some moisture to be thrown back along coastal areas from northern New Jersey to southern New England. This could provide these areas with the seasons' first snowfall Saturday night. Boundary layer temperatures are marginal to support snowfall but should get low enough after midnight. High pressure is right on this disturbances' heels, so lake response should be minimal with perhaps an inch or two of lake effect Saturday night before atmosphere drys and flow turns anti-cyclonic. Saturday night will be very chilly with lows along the coast from southern New England south falling to the low to mid 30's. Across the interior and northern New England coast lows will drop into the 20's with teens across the far north.

Any lingering snow showers along the coast will quickly taper Sunday morning as high pressure builds into the region with clearing skies. It will be quite chilly on Sunday as well with below freezing temperatures across the northern half of the Northeast with the southern half staying in the 30's. Perhaps the southern New Jersey shore could crack 40°F but that will be as warm as it gets.

With strong dome of high pressure over the region Sunday night a large portion of the Northeast could see its coldest night of the season as clear skies and light winds providing ideal radiational cooling conditions. Lows will drop below freezing area-wide with 20's covering a large portion of the coastal plain and southern half of the interior. Across the north where fresh snow cover will be present lows will have no trouble dropping into the teens with single digits possible in some of the colder mountain valley locations.

------------

High pressure remains anchored over the region on Monday. Despite the clear skies temperatures will be running around 5 degrees below normal. Expect highs to reach into the 40's along the coastal plain with 30's across the interior and 20's over the higher elevations of the Northeast Kingdom.

High pressure splits Monday night with one chunk moving offshore and another dropping south into the Mid-Atlantic States. Warmer temperatures will advect into the region on a southwesterly flow of air. A high/mid level deck of clouds will also move into the region preventing much radiational cooling and keeping temperatures a good 10-15 degrees warmer than Sunday night. Lows will fall into the upper 30's to near 40°F along the coastal plain from southern New England south. Across the interior and along the northern New England coast lows will drop into the 30's with 20's across the far interior and higher elevations.

Warm front moves into the region on Tuesday with building heights and a chance for rain showers across western sections. Highs will climb to above normal readings for mid to late November.

-------------

The warm southerly flow will continue across the Northeast both Wednesday and Thanksgiving Day as a strong cyclone wraps up over the Midwest. Occasional rain showers will continue across western and northern sections of the region with mostly cloudy skies area wide. There's an outside chance for record warmth on Thursday as 850mb temps are progged to rise to 10-12°C, especially if there's any breaks of sun. With strong cold front pushing into the region on Thursday night I would not be surprised to see some low-topped convection fire up along this boundary given the warm moist airmass that this front will be moving into.

Rain showers end from west to east on 'Black Friday' as cold front moves across the region and cold air filters in behind it. With large sprawling high pressure building in behind this front lake response should be minimal and short-lived.

___________________________________________________________

Radar: Northeast Region

NE radar

___________________________________________________________

Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.

---------------------------

Great Lakes SST's 9-29

Great Lakes SST's as of 11/02/2007.

-------

Temperature of lake across the street as of 11/11 at 7:30am: 33°F. This was the first morning patchy grease ice was observed.

___________________________________________________________



November Daily Weather Statistics

Date___________Hi/Lo____Precip___Sun___Snow

November 1st - 53°F/38°F....0.00"....40%
November 2nd - 52°F/30°F....0.00"....90%
November 3rd - 51°F/35°F....0.00"....30%
November 4th - 48°F/36°F....0.00"....15%
November 5th - 52°F/28°F....0.23"....60%
November 6th - 45°F/36°F....0.26"....40% Trace
November 7th - 37°F/27°F....Trace....40% Trace
November 8th - 37°F/19°F....0.00"....60%
November 9th - 38°F/27°F....0.21"....0% 1.5"
November 10th - 37°F/26°F....0.26"....20% 3.1"
November 11th - 42°F/20°F....0.00"....95%
November 12th - 39°F/24°F....0.12"....0%
November 13th - 54°F/29°F....0.31"....80%
November 14th - 48°F/27°F....0.39"....5%
November 15th - 52°F/35°F....1.53"....0% Trace



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Updated: 6:58 AM GMT on November 16, 2007

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Storm to bring rain/snow to Northeast

By: sullivanweather, 9:53 AM GMT on November 14, 2007

Current Surface Analysis

Current Surface Analysis

__________________________________________________________

Regional Forecast

A strong cold front will approach the Northeast on Wednesday in association with a sharpening upper trough. This trough will take on a negative tilt as it reaches the coast on Thursday bringing a solid shield of moderate rain to the area. On the backside of this area of rainfall a changeover to snow is possible across inland sections of the Northeast, especially across higher elevations. Lake effect snows will develop in the systems' wake during the day on Thursday, lasting into Friday. As this system wraps up and heads into the Canadian Maritimes on Friday moderate snow could develop over northern Maine on the backside of this low. Ridge of high pressure slides south of the area over the weekend as a weak clipper drops into the Northeast bringing spotty light rain and snow showers. Early next week models diverge in their soultions and lose consistancy as some point to a possible East Coast snowstorm while others leave the Northeast high and dry.

------------------

One more mild day could be expected on Wednesday as clouds increase from the west and temperatures average around 5-10 degrees above normal. Light showers could develop across central and western New York and Pennsylvania during the afternoon as moisture across the region increases ahead of approaching trough. Highs will reach the mid to upper 40's across northern New York and New England. South of here highs will easily climb into the 50's across the rest of the interior and coastal New England north of the Boston area. Across the coastal plain from Boston south highs should rise to the low to mid 60's under increasing southerly flow.

Cold front moves into western sections tonight as a wave of low pressure develops along the front after midnight on the lee side of the Appalachians. A steady area of rainfall will develop in response to this wave of low pressure as it heads northeastward along the frontal boundary and overspread much of the Northeast by daybreak. Higher elevations of western Pennsylvania could see a changeover to wet snow before precipitation comes to an end. Precipitation amounts should range from a quarter to three quarters of an inch. Lows Wednesday night will drop into the low 50's along coastal areas from southern New England south. Inland lows falls into the 40's except for extreme northern New England and western sections where front clears where 30's will be common.

------------------------

Low heads offshore during the afternoon on Thursday and strengthens rapidly. This will shift the axis of heaviest rain into New England where a half to one inch of rainfall could be expected. On the backside of this low across New Jersey, eastern Pennsylvania and eastern New York State precipitation from the trough will come to an end by afternoon with higher elevations above 1800' perhaps seeing a changeover to snow showers before tapering. Downwind of Lakes Erie and Ontario snow showers will develop in repsonse to the colder airmass being ushered in from the northwest. Accumulations during the daylight hours are unlikely, however, due to warm ground and marginal boundary layer temperatures. Highs will reach the lower 50's along coastal southern New England south along the coastal plain. Inland, highs will hold in the 40's and should be reached by noon before falling during the afternoon hours. Across higher elevations from northern New York into northern New England 30's will be common.

Strong low pressure heads into the Gulf of Maine Thursday night and eventually into Nova Scotia. Rain will taper from southwest to northeast across northern New England during the nighttime hours. A changeover to snow is possible away from the immediate coast with little to no accumulation. Lake effect snows kick into gear as well on a northwest flow. However short fetch and marginal temps will keep accumulations on the light side. Lows will fall into the 20's inland with 30's along coastal areas and immediately downwind of the Lakes. A brisk wind will blow out of the northwest as developing system offshore begins to intensify.

A chilly, brisk day is in store Friday for much of the Northeast with snow possible for Maine as storm bombs out and heads into the Canadaian Maritimes. Snow should rapidly develop across the State of Maine on Friday on the backside of a deepening low pressure. Except for extreme Downeast Maine where rain should be the dominate precipitation type a light to moderate snowfall is expected. Elsewhere across the Northeast a brisk northwest wind will usher in a chilly airmass under partly cloudy skies. Areas downwind of the lakes should be in and out of snow showers as the lake effect coninues. High's will reach the 40's along the coastal plain from central New England south with perhaps a 50°F reading or two across extreme southern New Jersey. Inland areas and along coastal Maine highs will remain in the 30's.

Steady snow will taper to snow showers across upslope areas of northern New England Friday night and storm system pulls into Canada. Snow showers will continue southeast of the lakes, but will lift northwards and diminish in intensity as flow turns anti-cyclonic and inversion lowers. Across the southern half of the Northeast away from the lakes skies will clear and winds will become light. Lows here will drop into the 30's along the coast with 20's inland. Cloud cover will stick around the northern half of the Northeast as they will still be under the influence of the low lifting into Canada. Lows here will also drop into the 20's except for along the immediate coast where temperatures will fall into the low 30's.

Precipitation Amounts Nov 14-17th

---------------

Snowfall through Saturday

--------------

Friday's storm develops into a deep, closed low over Quebec this weekend before lifting north into Baffin Bay. A weak moisture straved short wave rounds the base of this trough to provide the Northeast with a chance for snow showers across inland locations. Along the coast moisture won't survive the trip over the mountains, but a few flurries or sprinkles are possible. A reenforcing shot of cold air follows this short wave which could reactivate the lakes Saturday night. However, the flow quickly goes anti-cyclonic as a cold Canadian dome of high pressure builds into the region. Temperatures this weekend will average 5-10 degrees below normal as the coldest air this autumn infiltrates into the Northeast.

--------------------

A narrow surface ridge remains over the Northeast on Monday with fair conditions and temperatures near normal. Heights build on Tuesday with continued fair conditions and temperatures rising above normal levels. Another frontal boundary approaches the Northeast by Wednesday with temperatures remaining above normal.
___________________________________________________________

Radar: Northeast Region

NE radar

___________________________________________________________

Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.

---------------------------

Great Lakes SST's 9-29

Great Lakes SST's as of 11/02/2007.

-------

Temperature of lake across the street as of 11/11 at 7:30am: 33°F. This was the first morning patchy grease ice was observed.

___________________________________________________________



November Daily Weather Statistics

Date___________Hi/Lo____Precip___Sun___Snow

November 1st - 53°F/38°F....0.00"....40%
November 2nd - 52°F/30°F....0.00"....90%
November 3rd - 51°F/35°F....0.00"....30%
November 4th - 48°F/36°F....0.00"....15%
November 5th - 52°F/28°F....0.23"....60%
November 6th - 45°F/36°F....0.26"....40% Trace
November 7th - 37°F/27°F....Trace....40% Trace
November 8th - 37°F/19°F....0.00"....60%
November 9th - 38°F/27°F....0.21"....0% 1.5"
November 10th - 37°F/26°F....0.26"....20% 3.1"
November 11th - 42°F/20°F....0.00"....95%
November 12th - 39°F/24°F....0.12"....0%
November 13th - 54°F/29°F....0.31"....80%
November 14th - 48°F/27°F....0.39"....5%



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Updated: 6:20 PM GMT on November 15, 2007

Permalink

Northeast Weather

By: sullivanweather, 1:07 PM GMT on November 13, 2007




Regional Forecast

Active pattern over the next 7 to 10 days as a series of disturbances moves through the Northeast.

Cold front moves through the region Tuesday sweeping a band of showers offshore. A weak transient ridge of high pressure of Pacific origin builds in its wake. Ridge moves offshore Wednesday as a stronger cold front approaches from the west. This front will spread rain back into the region during the day on Wednesday as a wave of low pressure develops on the lee side of the Appalachians Wednesday night. This low will slow the fronts' eastward progression keeping showers along the coast for the day on Thursday and possibly into Friday across northern and eastern Maine. Behind the front much cooler air moves into the Northeast inducing lake response. Lake effect snow showers continue into Friday night before tapering. A weak clipper system moves across the Northeast this weekend spreading light rain and snow showers across the region. A reenforcement of colder air follows this clipper early next week as another system, a southern stream disturbance, tries to round the corner and come up the East Coast for a possible snowstorm by next Tuesday and Wednesday.

--------------

A frontal boundary is pushing a band of showers through the Northeast this Tuesday. Most of the precipitation is falling as rain except for northern Maine where an inch or two of snow fell overnight. Precipitation will move offshore by afternoon with clearing skies and temperatures running 5-10 degrees above normal in its wake across much of the Northeast. Highs will reach to near 60 degrees along the coastal plain from New York City south. The southern half of the interior and coastal southern New England will warm into the 50's while further north highs will make it to the 40's. Only the highest mountains in northern New England and extreme northern Maine will hold in the upper 30's which is close to normal readings.

Temperatures remain 5-10 degrees above normal Tuesday night under partly cloudy skies. With moist airmass in place patchy fog development will occur in favored areas. Clouds will increase once again from the west after midnight in western areas as next trough approaches. Lows will drop into the upper 40's to near 50 in the urban centers of Philadelphia and New York, along ther New Jersey shore and Long Island. Just inland along the coastal plain temperatures will remain in the low 40's while further inland lows will drop into the 30's.

Next frontal boundary moves into the Northeast on Wednesday bringing another round of showers. Precipitation will be light and spotty during the day on Wednesday and mainly confined to western sections. Temperatures will once again be running 5-10 degrees above seasonal normals with highs similar to Tuesday's. The only exception will be northern New England where highs will climb out of the 30's and into the 40's under partly cloudy skies.

Model differences begin to show up Wednesday night in terms of frontal placement. NAM fast than GFS by about 6 hours with this frontal passage which could have implications for Thursday. Models do agree on a wave of low pressure developing along the frontal boundary Wednesday night along the east side of the Appalachians. This brings an area of steady rain into the Northeast. Rainfall amounts will range from a quarter to three quarters of an inch. Temperatures will remain above normal wtih clouds and moist southwesterly flow out ahead of the frontal boundary. Once again lows will be near 50°F along the coast from New York city south with 40's inland and along the New England Coast. Across western Pennsylvania and New York where the front should pass by lows will drop into the 30's.

----------------

Things become interesting on Thursday as the cold front moves to the coast during the morning hours and offshore by late in the afternoon. Airmass behind this front is cool enough to support at least a changeover to snow across the higher elevations from the Poconos northeastward to the Catskills, Berkshires and into central and northern New England. Accumulations look minimal at this time due to warm ground and a wet start to the day. Otherwise expect a gradual decrease in rainfall coverage during the day on Thursday and main area of precipitation slowly pushes towards the coast. Temperatures on Thursday will not climb far from morning lows and in some cases will begin to fall by mid afternoon. Highs will reach the lower 50's along coastal southern New England south along the coastal plain. Inland, highs will hold in the 40's and should be reached by noon before falling during the afternoon hours. Across higher elevations from northern New York into northern New England 30's will be common.

Upper trough tilts negative Thursday night which could still hold precipitation along coastal areas where precipitation type will become an issue with continued cold air advection behind front. A changeover to snow is possible away from the immediate coast with little to no accumulation. Lake effect snows kick into gear as well on a northwest flow. However short fetch and marginal temps will keep accumulations on the light side. Lows will fall into the 20's inland with 30's along coastal areas and immediately downwind of the Lakes. A brisk wind will blow out of the northwest as developing system offshore begins to intensify.

A chilly, brisk day is in store Friday for much of the Northeast with snow possible for Maine as developing storm offshore bombs out and heads into the Canadaian Maritimes. Snow should rapidly develop across the State of Maine on Friday on the backside of a deepening low pressure. Except for extreme Downeast Maine where rain should be the dominate precipitation type a light to moderate snowfall is expected. Elsewhere across the Northeast a brisk northwest wind will usher in a chilly airmass under partly cloudy skies. Areas downwind of the lakes should be in and out of snow showers as the lake effect kicks into gear. High's will reach the 40's along the coastal plain from central New England south. Inland areas and along coastal Maine highs will remain in the 30's.

Steady snow will taper to snow showers across upslope areas of northern New England Friday night and storm system pulls into Canada. Snow showers will continue southeast of the lakes, but will lift northwards and diminish in intensity as flow turns anti-cyclonic and inversion lowers. Across the southern half of the Northeast away from the lakes skies will clear and winds will become light. Lows here will drop into the 30's along the coast with 20's inland. Cloud cover will stick around the northern half of the Northeast as they will still be under the influence of the low lifting into Canada. Lows here will also drop into the 20's except for along the immediate coast where temperatures will fall into the low 30's.

--------------

Friday's storm develops into a deep, closed low over Quebec this weekend before lifting north into Baffin Bay. A weak moisture straved short wave rounds the base of this trough to provide the Northeast with a chance for snow showers across inland locations. Along the coast moisture won't survive the trip over the mountains, but a few flurries are possible. A reenforcing shot of cold air follows this short wave which could reactivate the lakes Saturday into Saturday night. However, the flow quickly goes anti-cyclonic as a cold Canadian dome of high pressure builds into the region. Temperatures this weekend will average 5-10 degrees below normal as the coldest air this autumn infiltrates into the Northeast.

A southern stream disturbance will be the next weather player by early next week. Whether or not this system will affect the Northeast is still up in the air. Models have been all over the map with some, such as yesterdays' ECMWF run, showing a storm tracking up the west side of the Appalachians, which would bring the Northeast mainly a rain or ice to rain event. Todays' GFS runs have shown this system passing safely off to the south and offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast. While it's too early to say whether or not a storm system will affect the Northeast the beginning of next week, the potential is there. With this being a southern stream disturbance, moisture will not be an issue. This issue will be how sharp the trough becomes while moving across the Southeast and where high pressure to the north sets up. Still lots of time to fine tune the forecast as it is still 6-7 days away.

___________________________________________________________

Radar: Northeast Region

NE radar

___________________________________________________________

Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.

---------------------------

Great Lakes SST's 9-29

Great Lakes SST's as of 11/02/2007.

-------

Temperature of lake across the street as of 11/11 at 7:30am: 33°F. This was the first morning patchy grease ice was observed.

___________________________________________________________



November Daily Weather Statistics

Date___________Hi/Lo____Precip___Sun___Snow

November 1st - 53°F/38°F....0.00"....40%
November 2nd - 52°F/30°F....0.00"....90%
November 3rd - 51°F/35°F....0.00"....30%
November 4th - 48°F/36°F....0.00"....15%
November 5th - 52°F/28°F....0.23"....60%
November 6th - 45°F/36°F....0.26"....40% Trace
November 7th - 37°F/27°F....Trace....40% Trace
November 8th - 37°F/19°F....0.00"....60%
November 9th - 38°F/27°F....0.21"....0% 1.5"
November 10th - 37°F/26°F....0.26"....20% 3.1"
November 11th - 42°F/20°F....0.00"....95%
November 12th - 39°F/24°F....0.12"....0%
November 13th - 54°F/29°F....0.31"....80%



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Updated: 8:28 AM GMT on November 14, 2007

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Northeast Weather

By: sullivanweather, 11:15 AM GMT on November 11, 2007

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Snow Totals from Nov 9-10th.

Bethel, NY ------------- 4.6"
Slide Mtn., NY --------- 3.0"
Monticello, NY --------- 5.0"
Rock Hill, NY ---------- 5.2"
Phoenicia, NY ---------- 5.0"
Bloomingburg, NY ------- 3.2"
Lake Wallenpaupack, PA - 3.0"
Damascus, PA ----------- 2.8"
Chester, NY ------------ 1.7"
Delhi, NY -------------- 1.5"
Binghamton, NY --------- 0.7"

Previous blog contains pictures from seasons 1st snowfall on Nov 9/10th.

-----------------------

Regional Forecast.

A ridge of high pressure over the Northeast will provide a fine Veterans' Day with mostly clear skies and temperatures running a few degrees below normal. Clouds increase tonight as low pressure moving towards Hudson Bay sweeps a trough through the Northeast Monday and Monday night bringing a round of light precipitation. A weak transient ridge moves over the region on Tuesday and offshore by Wednesday as another short wave approaches in fast flow aloft. This all gets swept offshore Thursday with a strong cold frontal passage. Cool air cyclonic flow induces lake response Thursday afternoon that will wane Friday afternoon as atmosphere drys and flow anti-cyclonic. A potent short wave dropping out of Canada will need to be watched for coastal development next weekend but due to flat trough and progressive flow this system is currently expected to remain offshore.

-----------------

Canadian high pressure will be in control this Veterans' Day providing the Northeast with clear, cool conditions. Temperatures will climb into the 40's across much of the interior Northeast and coastal New England. Across northern New England and the higher terrain of New York State temperatures this afternoon will remain in the 30's. Along the coastal plain from New York City south temperatures should break into the low 50's. These readings are around 4-8 degrees below normal for this time of year. Wind will be light for most of the Northeast this afternoon under the dome of high pressure.

A warm front will approach the Northeast from the west Sunday night bringing an increase in clouds for the western half of the Northeast with a chance of showers in western Pennsylvania. Across New England mostly clear skies will hold true allowing for ideal radiational cooling conditions. Temperatures across northern New England will drop into the teens with 20's common across the rest of New England except for the immediate coast. Across eastern New York, northeastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey clouds will move into a few hours after dusk allowing for temperatures to quickly fall during the evening before leveling off after clouds move in. Temperatures here will fall into the 20's with 30's towards the coast. Across western sections overnight lows will be held up by clouds. Here temperatures will remain in the upper 30's to low 40's.

A trough of low pressure moves through the Northeast Monday and Monday night bringing a round of showers to the region. Most of this precipitation will fall in the form of rain except for northern Maine where temperatures will be cool enough for light snow with accumulations of 1-3 inches. Precipitation will affect New York, Pennsylvania and New Jersey during the day on Monday and move into New England Monday night.

Highs on Monday will rise into the 50's across southern Pennsylvania, central and southern New Jersey over to coastal southern New England. Across the interior of the Northeast highs will reach the 40's except for northern Mainea and the higher terrain of northen New York, Vermont and New Hampshire where temperatures will remain in the upper 30's.

Lows Monday night will drop back into the 30's across the northern half of the Northeast and into the 40's across the southern half which is about 5 degrees above normal.

---------------

Airmass behind Monday's trough is of Pacific origin which should make for rather mild day for Tuesday with temperatures running 5-10 degrees warmer than Monday's highs. This translates to upper 50's to near 60 along the coastal plain from New York City south. Low to mid 50's will be common along the southern New England coast and interior valleys of the southern half of the Northeast. Elsewhere across the interior temperatures will climb into the upper 40's to near 50. Higher elevations of northern New York and New England, including northern Maine will remain in the lower 40's.

Clouds and precipitation will be exiting the Northeast during the morning hours on Tuesday leaving partly cloudy skies in its wake. However with fast upper flow the next system will be quickly approaching from the west and will spread clouds into western New York and Pennsylvania by the afternoon and precipitation by evening.

Clouds spill into the rest of the Northeast overnight Tuesday with rain showers moving into the western half of the Northeast. Low temperatures will be running 5-10 degrees above normal from north to south. Lows will drop into the 30's across northern and central New York and New England with 40's across Pennsylvania to southern New England.

Trough moves through the Northeast Wednesday and Wednesday night. With milder Pacific air across the region combined with southerly flow ahead of this trough most of the precipitation during the day on Wednesday will fall in the form of rain which should amount from a quarter to a half inch. With clouds and precipitation across the region temperatures on Wednesday won't climb far from overnight lows with 40's and 50's from north to south. These readings will be close to seasonal averages, perhaps a few degrees above normal.

Strong cold front pushes through the region Wednesday night. Possible wave development along the frontal boundary will have to be watched. This could hold precipitation over the region as cold air filters in resulting in a changeover to snow before ending. Over the last couple of weeks models have been too weak and too far north with energy diving into the Northeast beyond 96 hours. As these events move into the <96 timeframe models have trended stronger with these shortwaves and have dug them further south and east. While this is all conjecture at this point in time, it is something to look out for. This is all moot west of central Pennsylvania and New York where precipitation should be east of here under clearing skies. Lows Wednesday night should drop into the 40's along the coastal plain from southern New England south. Across the interior and along the rest of the New England coast lows will fall into the 30's.


-----------------

Low pressure wraps up over eastern Canada forming a deep closed low which will keep the Northeast in cool cyclonic flow Thursday and Friday. Lake effect snows kicks into gear on a westerly wind on Thursday. Lake bands will translate northwards Thursday night into Friday morning as flow becomes west-southwesterly before shutting down Friday afternoon under a combination of warm air advection and anti-cyclonic flow. Along the coast it will be brisk with partly cloudy skies which will clear at night. In the interior of the Northeast expect mostly clear skies at night away from the lakes. During the daylight hours there should be stratocumulus development on Thursday afternoon and to a lesser extent Friday afternoon as well. Upslope areas of northern New England could even see a few snow showers under cyclonic flow. Temperatures will average about 5-8 degrees below normal.

Another clipper system moves into the Northeast Saturday with rain showers along the coast and snow showers well inland and in higher elevations. A shot of polar air dives down behind this clipper resulting in temperatures staying below normal and re-activation of the lake effect machine.


___________________________________________________________

Radar: Northeast Region

NE radar

___________________________________________________________

Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.

---------------------------

Great Lakes SST's 9-29

Great Lakes SST's as of 11/02/2007.

-------

Temperature of lake across the street as of 11/11 at 7:30am: 33°F. This was the first morning patchy grease ice was observed.

___________________________________________________________



November Daily Weather Statistics

Date___________Hi/Lo____Precip___Sun___Snow

November 1st - 53°F/38°F....0.00"....40%
November 2nd - 52°F/30°F....0.00"....90%
November 3rd - 51°F/35°F....0.00"....30%
November 4th - 48°F/36°F....0.00"....15%
November 5th - 52°F/28°F....0.23"....60%
November 6th - 45°F/36°F....0.26"....40% Trace
November 7th - 37°F/27°F....Trace....40% Trace
November 8th - 37°F/19°F....0.00"....60%
November 9th - 38°F/27°F....0.21"....0% 1.5"
November 10th - 37°F/26°F....0.26"....20% 3.1"
November 11th - 42°F/20°F....0.00"....95%
November 12th - 39°F/24°F....0.12"....0%



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Updated: 6:55 AM GMT on November 13, 2007

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1st Widespread Snowfall/Pics

By: sullivanweather, 8:32 AM GMT on November 09, 2007


Clipper to bring seasons' frist snowfall to portions of the Northeast.

---------

Pennsylvania, New Jersey, southern New York and extreme southern New England

A pair of disturbances will combine to bring the first synoptic snowfall this season across southern New York State, Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey. A system currently over the Ohio Valley will transfer its energy to a developing low offshore. This system does not have a lot of moisture to work with but does have enough to produce a period of light precipitation during the day on Friday. Lower elevations should mainly see light rainfall but as one heads higher into the hills and mountains precipitation should mix with, and change to snow. Even some of the lower elevations could see a period of sleet at the onset of the precipitation.

Clouds will have spread over most areas that will receive precipitation today by dawn. This will help to keep temperatures down and when combined with dewpoints in the 20's across most of the areas where precipitation type will be an issue, there could be a tendacy towards frozen precipitation. As it looks now, snow levels will range from 1800' across the southern two thirds of Pennsylvania to around 1000' across southern New York. This precipitation will not amount to much during the day on Friday, mainly under a tenth of an inch, with little to no accumulations of snow.

Friday ptype

A secondary disturbance, currently north of Minnesota, will quickly dive into western Pennsylvania this evening. This short wave combined with an inverted trough at the surface should provide enough lift and convergence to produce another period of precipitation overnight Friday into Saturday morning. Snow levels will lower and move towards the coast as the night progresses with areas down to the I-95 corridor seeing a mixture by daybreak Saturday. Across the interior light accumulations of snow is likely during the overnight period. Precipitation should taper during the morning hours on Saturday except for eastern Long Island and southeastern New England who could get into some wrap around from strengthening offshore low. There could even be an ocean-effect rain or snow shower over Cape Cod as system pulls away.

UPDATED 9PM
Precip type - Friday night

UPDATED 9PM
Snowfall Amounts

-------------

Northern New York and the rest of New England.

High pressure over Quebec will keep northern New York and central and northern New England dry on Friday. Skies will be mostly clear across northern Maine with increasing clouds towards the south and west. Temperatures will average about 5 degrees below normal on Friday.

Much of the same is expected Friday night with clipper system staying to the south of the area and high pressure to the north remaining in control.

Benign weather continues into Saturday with temperatures remaining below normal. There will be some gusty winds along the New England coast as pressure gradient tightens between developing offshore low and high pressure to the north.

Skies clear and winds calm by Saturday night making for ideal radiational cooling conditions. Temperatures will remain about 5-10 degrees below normal.

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Sunday through Midweek

High pressure will remain anchored over the region on Sunday with mostly clear skies and light winds. High clouds will approach from the west as a weakening trough moves towards the area. Temperatures will remain about 5-10 degrees below seasonal norms.

High pressure begins to move southward Sunday night bringing a milder westerly flow of air into the region. Temperatures Sunday night will average about 5-10 degrees warmer than Saturday night under partly cloudy skies.

Southwesterly flow kicks into gear Monday with temperatures returning to normal levels for mid-November. Skies will remain partly cloudy across New England with increasing levels of cloudiness as one heads southwestward towards Pennsylvania. There could even be some very light rain or drizzle by afternoon in western Pennsylvania. Trough approaches from the west by Monday night which could provide some light rain showers across the western half of the Northeast. With cloud cover and a milder southwesterly flow of air temperatures should climb back above normal.

Trough continues to pull eastward on Tuesday providing most of the Northeast with a chance for rain showers. Continued cloud cover will prevent temperatures from climbing much from overnight lows with high close to average. Since this system will be of Pacific origin the air behind this trough will not cool much. Weak ridge will provide some clearing Tuesday night. Overnight lows will remain close to or slightly above average.

The ridge quickly moves offshore Wednesday morning, giving way to another trough. Southwest flow out ahead of this trough will bring temperatures back above seasonal norms as storm track remains in Canada. Clouds will filter back into the region with light showers breaking out by evening across western sections.

___________________________________________________________

Radar: Northeast Region

NE radar

___________________________________________________________

Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.

---------------------------

Great Lakes SST's 9-29

Great Lakes SST's as of 11/02/2007.

-------

Temperature of lake across the street as of 11/9 7:30am: 37°F

___________________________________________________________



November Daily Weather Statistics

Date___________Hi/Lo____Precip___Sun___Snow

November 1st - 53°F/38°F....0.00"....40%
November 2nd - 52°F/30°F....0.00"....90%
November 3rd - 51°F/35°F....0.00"....30%
November 4th - 48°F/36°F....0.00"....15%
November 5th - 52°F/28°F....0.23"....60%
November 6th - 45°F/36°F....0.26"....40% Trace
November 7th - 37°F/27°F....Trace....40% Trace
November 8th - 37°F/19°F....0.00"....60%
November 9th - 38°F/27°F....0.21"....0% 1.5"
November 10th - 37°F/26°F....0.26"....20% 3.1"



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Updated: 9:25 AM GMT on November 11, 2007

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2007-08 Winter Forecast

By: sullivanweather, 11:31 PM GMT on November 07, 2007

This blog will be dedicated to my forecast for the 2007-08 Winter season with special focus on the Northeast. This is going to be a tricky forecast as there are many climate anomalies presently affecting weather on a global/hemispheric scale. There's a strengthening 1st year La Nina which appears to be heading towards a multi-year event. Arctic sea-ice is at record low levels, however, the thickest/highest concentrations of sea-ice lie on the North American side of the Arctic Ocean. There is also the question of whether or not this strong La Nina will induce a regime shift of the PDO in the North Pacific. Then there's the impossible to forecast variability in the AO and the NAO which is very important to weather here in the Northeast.

___________________________________________________________


Contiguous United States temperature departures

United States Winter temperature departures

Contiguous United States precipitation departures

United States forecast Winter Precipitation Departures

Due to the ongoing La Nina temperature departures across the southern United States should average above normal this Winter as the storm track rides more towards the north. There should be more ridging across these areas that'll also contribute to the ongoing drought across the Southeast and Southwest. Above normal SST's across the western Atlantic will also help to make for warmer than normal conditions across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic states.

A highly variable jet stream should be present this Winter across the Northwestern United States which should help to contribute to wetter than normal conditions here along with above normal snowfall for the Cascades and northern Rockys. The ongoing drought across the Northern Rockys should be tempered by this pattern. Cooler than normal SST's in the Gulf of Alaska and off the Pacific Northwest Coast should also help to contribute to below normal temperatures across the Northwest.

A highly variable temperature pattern should exist this Winter across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest as the pattern will oscillate between periods of arctic outbreaks and downsloping Chinook Winds off the Rockys. Percipitation across this region should be near normal except for the High Plains where below normal precipitation is expected due to the lack of strong systems. For the most part clipper systems should be the main weather threat this Winter across the Northern Plains as there should be a fast west to east flow and not much upslope.

Across the Midwest to the Ohio Valley temperatures are expected to be near normal with above normal precipitation. This area will be in the battleground between cold air outbreaks to the north and the persistant pattern of warm and dry weather to the south. This area will also be very close to the mean storm track this Winter as fast moving systems riding north of the predicted Southeast ridge should provide the area with quite a few overrunning events. Snowfall should be above normal from central Missouri east-northeastward across the northern Ohio Valley to the central Appalachians.

The Great Lakes should average drier than normal this winter and near average temperature-wise expect for the Upper Peninsula of Michigan and northern Wisconsin where a warmer than normal Lake Superior should tend to moderate temperatures. Lake-effect snowfall across this region should be near average but synoptic scale snowfall will be below average as mainly northern branch clipper systems move through the area.

___________________________________________________________

The Northeast



Northeast Winter temperature departures

There should be a sharp contrast in temperatures this Winter across the Northeast. The mean jet stream position should cut across the southern portions of the region. To the south of this mean jet position temperatures should average above normal this winter, to the north temperatures should remain near average. Only northern New England should see temperatures average below normal this Winter as they will get clipped with some arctic outbreaks in the projected fast west-east flow. Typically a La Nina would indicate above normal temperatures for at least the southern half of the area, but I feel this Winter will be a little different. There's a large area of below normal SST's in the Gulf of Alaska extending down the western coast of North America. Due to this large area of below normal SST's, airmasses of Pacific origin should not have as much of a warming effect as usual. La Nina also favors high pressure centered around the Bering Strait and a downstream trough over the Canadian Rockies. This cold air should be shunted a bit further east this year rather than south as the main northern branch of the jet stream should have a fast west-east flow over the contiguous United States. A good portion of this polar air should make it into the Northeast, but severe arctic outbreaks seem unlikely this Winter.

Northeast Winter precipitation departures


Most of the Northeast should see above average precipitation this Winter. The southeastern third of the area will be close to the mean position of the jet stream and the storm track. Although storms this Winter shouldn't be particularly strong as a rather flat jet stream will keep fast west to east moving systems from getting too strong, they should come in close sucession. So the number of precipitation days should be above normal as well.

Around the Great Lakes warmer than normal lake temperatures should bring about greater amounts of lake effect snow than usual. Although there shouldn't be any long lived arctic outbreaks this Winter as there were last February, enough cold air will be present to make for quite a snowy season in and around the eastern Great Lakes.

From central Pennsylvania to central and northern New York State into central New England precipitation and snowfall should be near average this Winter. There should be a decent mix of northern stream clipper type systems and southern stream overrunning precipitation systems that'll keep the area right near average precipitation-wise.

Northern New England could very well remain south of the main storm track this Winter as the fast west to east flow will keep most storms to the south of the area and push them offshore before turning up the coast. I'm not saying that there won't be Nor'easters this Winter, there will be a tendacy to surpress these systems south of northern New England. Instead there should be a good deal of clipper like systems that strengthen offshore and in the Canadian Maritimes. There could be several upslope snow events here as well, but they're no comparison to big time Nor'easters. So percipitation and snowfall this Winter in northern New England should remain below normal.


This is my inital outloook this Winter. The first week of the three Winter months I will put out an updated forecast and monthly outlook as this is our busy time of the year.


___________________________________________________________

Regional Forecast

High pressure over the region on Thursday will lift north into the Canadian Maritimes on Friday allowing a clipper system to move into the southern half of the Northeast. This clipper will move offshore with an inverted trough developing on its backside bringing the areas first synopitic snowfall of the season. By Saturday afternoon most of the precipitation should pull offshore with high pressure building into the Northeast providing fair weather for the remainder of the weekend.

A weakening system approaches Sunday night and Monday which should spread clouds into the region and perhaps some drizzle or freezing drizzle for western sections on Sunday night but this precipitation should dry up as it heads into the ridge which will hold strong. Heights build on Tuesday as ridging at upper levels moves into the region along with moderating temperatures in southerly flow on the backside of the surface high. Low pressure moves from the Great Lakes into southern Canada late Tuesday and Wednesday which should spread showers into the region. Associated cold front moves through the region Wednesday night and Thursday which should bring and end to precipitation along with cooler air and a slight lake response.


-----------

High pressure slides by just to the south of the region on Wednesday night. This should provide the area with clear skies and light winds making for the coldest night thus far this season. Philadelphia and New York City could see their first frost of the year Wednesday night.

It will be sunny and cool on Thursday as high pressure crests over the region and moves offshore. There could be a few flurries in the morning moving off Lake Ontario as lake-effect events always seem to last longer than models indicate. High clouds will increase from the west during the afternoon as a clipper system approaches.

-----------

A moisture starved clipper system moves through the region on Friday bringing with it the first chance at synoptic snow for the interior of the Northeast. Not much snowfall is expected with an inch at most in the higher elevations. Across the lower elevations of the Northeast rain could mix in with the snow showers during the late morning and afternoon with less of a chance of snow as one moves towards the coast.

Impacts from Friday night/Saturday clipper


As this system pulls offshore on Friday night a low pressure will develop off the coast. A negativly tilting trough axis will help to develop an inverted trough on the back side of this low that will serve as a focus for some light precipitation Friday night into Saturday morning. Across elevations higher than 1000' precipitation should fall in the form of snow which could accumulating a dusting to perhaps an inch or two. Across lower elevations away from the coast precipitation could fall in the form of a rain/snow mixture but should transition more to rain as one heads closer towards the coast.

Precipiatation should end from west to east during the morning hours on Saturday as low pressure pulls away from the region into the Canadian Maritimes. High pressure will build in its wake and skies will begin to clear by Saturday afternoon.

With clear skies and light winds Saturday night across the interior of the Northeast temperatures could drop to their lowest levels of the season, especially if any accumulating snowfall is able to stick around until nightfall. High pressure will remain anchored over the region on Sunday with mostly clear skies and light winds. High clouds will approach from the west as a weakening trough moves towards the area. Temperatures will remain about 5-10 degrees below seasonal norms.

High pressure begins to move southward Sunday night bringing a milder westerly flow of air into the region. Temperatures Sunday night will average about 5-10 degrees warmer than Saturday night under partly cloudy skies.

Southwesterly flow kicks into gear Monday with temperatures returning to normal levels for mid-November. Skies will remain partly cloudy across New England with increasing levels of cloudiness as one heads southwestward towards Pennsylvania. There could even be some very light rain or drizzle by afternoon in western Pennsylvania. Trough approaches from the west by Monday night which could provide some light rain showers across the western half of the Northeast. With cloud cover and a milder southwesterly flow of air temperatures should climb back above normal.

Trough continues to pull eastward on Tuesday providing most of the Northeast with a chance for rain showers. Continued cloud cover will prevent temperatures from climbing much from overnight lows with high close to average. Since this system will be of Pacific origin the air behind this trough will not cool much. Weak ridge will provide some clearing Tuesday night. Overnight lows will remain close to or slightly above average.

The ridge quickly moves offshore Wednesday morning, giving way to another trough. Southwest flow out ahead of this trough will bring temperatures back above seasonal norms as storm track remains in Canada. Clouds will filter back into the region with light showers breaking out by evening across western sections.


___________________________________________________________

Radar: Northeast Region

NE radar

___________________________________________________________

Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.

---------------------------

Great Lakes SST's 9-29

Great Lakes SST's as of 11/02/2007.

-------

Current temperature of lake across the street: 42°F

___________________________________________________________



November Daily Weather Statistics

Date___________Hi/Lo____Precip___Sun___Snow

November 1st - 53°F/38°F....0.00"....40%
November 2nd - 52°F/30°F....0.00"....90%
November 3rd - 51°F/35°F....0.00"....30%
November 4th - 48°F/36°F....0.00"....15%
November 5th - 52°F/28°F....0.23"....60%
November 6th - 45°F/36°F....0.26"....40% Trace
November 7th - 37°F/27°F....Trace....40% Trace
November 8th - 37°F/19°F....0.00"....60%



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Updated: 7:39 AM GMT on November 09, 2007

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October In Review

By: sullivanweather, 5:31 AM GMT on November 05, 2007



October daily weather statistics.

------------

October 1st - 64°F/46°F....0.00"....15%
October 2nd - 69°F/49°F....0.00"....25%
October 3rd - 77°F/55°F....0.00"....40%
October 4th - 82°F/55°F....0.00"....60%
October 5th - 82°F/55°F....0.00"....80%
October 6th - 84°F/54°F....0.17"....85%
October 7th - 75°F/54°F....0.01"....45%
October 8th - 83°F/52°F....0.71"....70%
October 9th - 68°F/55°F....0.63"....10%
October 10th - 70°F/54°F....0.05"....35%
October 11th - 56°F/52°F....2.76"....0%
October 12th - 55°F/38°F....0.23"....30%
October 13th - 54°F/36°F....0.00"....40%
October 14th - 53°F/37°F....Trace....20%
October 15th - 57°F/45°F....0.00"....30%
October 16th - 64°F/41°F....0.00"....40%
October 17th - 66°F/45°F....Trace....55%
October 18th - 73°F/48°F....0.00"....60%
October 19th - 71°F/57°F....1.07"....5%
October 20th - 62°F/45°F....0.04"....40%
October 21st - 73°F/38°F....0.00"....95%
October 22nd - 75°F/44°F....0.00"....60%
October 23rd - 70°F/54°F....0.13"....5%
October 24th - 55°F/48°F....0.67"....0%
October 25th - 56°F/41°F....0.14"....70%
October 26th - 51°F/40°F....0.45"....0%
October 27th - 62°F/47°F....0.96"....20%
October 28th - 47°F/31°F....0.00"....40% *First freeze
October 29th - 47°F/25°F....0.00"....90%
October 30th - 57°F/28°F....0.00"....95%
October 31st - 63°F/33°F....0.00"....95%

_________________________________________________________

October 2007 Daily Highs/Lows

October 2007 - Daily highs/lows Bethel, NY

October 2007 average high: 65.19°F
October average mean high: 55.0°F
October 2007 high temperature departure: 10.19°F above normal

October 2007 average low: 45.23°F
October average mean low: 36.9°F
October 2007 low temperature departure: 8.33°F above normal

October 2007 mean temperature: 55.21°F
October normal mean: 45.95°F
October 2007 departure: 9.26°F above normal



October 2007 Daily Precipitation

October 2007 - Daily Precip. Bethel, NY

October 2007 precipitation - 8.02"

___________________________________________________________

Previous 3 months temperature data - Bethel, NY

3 month temps

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Regional Forecast

The Northeast should see its first taste of Winter this week as a polar front crosses the region Monday night and Tuesday bringing the season's coldest airmass thus far. The lake-effect machine will kick into gear on Tuesday into Wednesday as cold air filters into the region. Polar high crests over the region Wednesday night which should yield our coldest night this week. Clouds begin to move back into the region on Thursday as a clipper system approaches. This system does not have much moisture but enough exists for the interior of the Northeast to see some snow showers by Thursday night and Friday. Along southern regions and along the coastal plain precipitation will be mainly in the form of liquid rain with a mixture of rain and snow at night away from the big cities. Low pressure will develop offshore Friday night, but far enough offshore to spare the Northeast any major precipitation event. Lake response behind Friday's clipper should be weak as high pressure quickly builds in by Saturday. Milder temperatures are expected by Sunday as high moves offshore bringing a southerly flow of air into the region.

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A cold front, in association with a vigorous shortwave trough, will sweep through the area Monday night and Tuesday. Ahead of this front a band of showers will develop with a chance for a rumble of thunder as well. These showers will be convective in nature, so some gusty winds can be expected in the heaviest showers. In northern New England precipitation could begin as a period of snow late Monday night and early Tuesday morning before precipitation changes over to rain. A quarter to three quarters of an inch of rain should fall in association with this front as it crosses the region.

Lake-effect showers should develop on Tuesday behind this front, which should be in the form of snow at elevations above 1000'. As night falls snow levels should lower to the surface throughout the region. Snowfall accumulations of 2-6" could fall Tuesday night in favored areas off Lake Erie from south of Erie, PA to near Jamestown, NY. The southern Tug Hill Plateau could also receive up to 6" of snowfall. Elsewhere there should be light accumulations of snow, which will still cause probelms with this being the regions 1st measureable snowfall.

Expected snowfall accumulations Tuesday-Wednesday.
Snowfall accumulations Tuesday-Wednesday

Elsewhere across the Northeast cool and breezy weather is expected to follow the cold frontal passage Tuesday and Wednesday. Across the interior of the Northeast stratocumulus development is expected Tuesday and Wednesday during the afternoon. Closer towards the coast the stratocumulus deck should break into scattered clouds with clearing skies at night.


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High pressure slides by just to the south of the region on Wednesday night. This should provide the area with clear skies and light winds making for the coldest night thus far this season. Philadelphia and New York City could see their first frost of the year Wednesday night.

It will be sunny and cool on Thursday as high pressure crests over the region and moves offshore. There could be a few flurries in the morning moving off Lake Ontario as lake-effect events always seem to last longer than models indicate. High clouds will increase from the west during the afternoon as a clipper system approaches.

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A moisture starved clipper system moves through the region on Friday bringing with it the first chance at synoptic snow for the interior of the Northeast. Not much snowfall is expected with an inch at most in the higher elevations. Across the lower elevations of the Northeast rain could mix in with the snow showers during the late morning and afternoon with less of a chance of snow as one moves towards the coast.

System pulls offshore Friday evening and strengthens too far off the coast to provide any more precipitation in the Northeast. Winds will pick up out of the northwest with a slight lake response.

High temperatures this week.

High temperatures - Nov 6-9th

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Radar: Northeast Region

NE radar

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Local SST's

Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast.

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Great Lakes SST's 9-29

Great Lakes SST's as of 11/02/2007.

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Current temperature of lake across the street: 42°F

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November Daily Weather Statistics

Date___________Hi/Lo____Precip___Sun___Snow

November 1st - 53°F/38°F....0.00"....40%
November 2nd - 52°F/30°F....0.00"....90%
November 3rd - 51°F/35°F....0.00"....30%
November 4th - 48°F/36°F....0.00"....15%
November 5th - 52°F/28°F....0.23"....60%
November 6th - 45°F/36°F....0.26"....40% Trace



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Updated: 9:29 PM GMT on November 07, 2007

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About sullivanweather

Thomas is an avid weather enthusiast, landscaper and organic gardener. This blog is dedicated to Northeast and tropical weather forecasting. Enjoy!

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