Northeast Weather Blog

Northeast weather. Karen/Melissa

By: sullivanweather, 12:44 AM GMT on September 29, 2007

Tropical weather discussion.

Karen

TD-12

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Karen continues to battle 40kts of westerly wind shear this morning and is barely hanging on as a tropical cyclone. The center of circulation has become very difficult, if not impossible, to discern. With another 24 hours of strong shear persisting it'll be hard to see Karen coming out in tact.

Despite the fact that strong shear will be over the system for the next 24 hours and moderate shear for the following 24-48 hours mostly likely leading to her dissapation this system is still worth keeping an eye on. Regeneration is possible once whatever is left of this system comes into a more favorable environment. The fact that most of the strong convection has been stripped from the storm will allow Karen to ride the trades and continue westward, bringing it closer to the contiguous US. This is not a good scenario for folks living on the East Coast as a blocking high will be situated to the systems' north in 5 days, keeping the systems' foward motion on a westward component. So if regeneration were to occur (I say this with the expectation that Karen will be downgraded to an open wave sometime during the next 24-36 hours) it could become a problem for someone on the East Coast.

So the forecast, as it stands currently, is for a continued weakening of Karen into an open wave and a motion that would carry it west with a slight northward component to it's movement for the next 48-72 hours. Since regeneration is a tricky area to forecast for I will not venture to offer any kind of prognostication beyond the inital 72 hours forecast being and advise folks to check back in a couple of days.

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Melissa

Tropical depression 14 was recently upgraded this morning to Tropical Storm Melissa as of 5am. This tropical storm is located to the southwest of the Cape Verde Islands and is moving towards the west very slowly. Max sustained winds are 40mph and the central pressure stands at 1005mb (estimated).

The storm currently is just south of a highly sheard environment and it won't take much northerly movement of Melissa to put the storm under 20-30kts of shear. The steering currents around Melissa currently are very weak and the storm is crawling along towards the west under 5kts. This motion should continue for the next 24-48 hours. Beyond that time its a crap shot as to where she goes next. For the time being I see no reason why this storm wouldn't continue on a ~280° heading for the 48-72 hour timeframe. Beyond 4 days a trough should dip into the tropical Atlantic whose axis should lie around 50°W longitude which should provide enough of a weakness to allow Melissa to get picked up into the westerlies and bring about recurvature.

Intensity of this cyclone is proving to be a challenge as well. With the storm situated very close to a strongly sheared environment it wouldn't take much movement towards the north to rip it apart. However, I do expect a continued westward motion which should take this system just to the south of the hostile environment and intensification appears likely in the short term. With the cyclone having a rather small circulation it wouldn't take much to disrupt it. With that being said it should also be able to take full advantage of a favorable environment, which the system is on the border of now. Therefore intensification into a strong tropical storm and perhaps a hurricane should occur over the next 48-72 hours before a leveling off of the intenisfication process take place. By days 4 and 5 Melissa should begin to feel the effects of the afforemntioned trough and weakening should occur as the cyclone recurves out into the open Atlantic.

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NE radar

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Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast. SST's have returned to near to above normal levels for late September from southern New England south, with continued near normal SST's from Cape Cod northward along the coast of Maine.


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Great Lakes SST's 9-24

Great Lakes SST's as of 9/24.
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September daily weather statistics.

-----------------------------------

September 1st - 71°F/52°F....0.00"....90%
September 2nd - 73°F/43°F....0.00"....95%
September 3rd - 80°F/48°F....0.00"....95%
September 4th - 75°F/54°F....0.00"....85%
September 5th - 73°F/53°F....0.00"....40%
September 6th - 77°F/55°F....0.00"....40%
September 7th - 86°F/57°F....0.00"....95%
September 8th - 84°F/65°F....0.11"....50%
September 9th - 82°F/63°F....Trace....40%
September 10th - 77°F/63°F....0.00"....20%
September 11th - 66°F/56°F....0.68"....5%
September 12th - 65°F/47°F....0.02"....65%
September 13th - 70°F/42°F....0.00"....85%
September 14th - 69°F/51°F....Trace....10%
September 15th - 63°F/44°F....0.24"....40%
September 16th - 60°F/37°F....0.00"....40%
September 17th - 63°F/35°F....0.00"....90%
September 18th - 66°F/37°F....0.00"....90%
September 19th - 73°F/39°F....0.00"....95%
September 20th - 79°F/44°F....0.00"....100%
September 21st - 79°F/55°F....0.00"....90%
September 22nd - 79°F/54°F....0.00"....40%
September 23rd - 73°F/50°F....0.00"....80%
September 24th - 76°F/45°F....0.00"....95%
September 25th - 85°F/46°F....0.00"....95%
September 26th - 87°F/60°F....0.00"....70%
September 27th - 82°F/63°F....0.18"....60%
September 28th - 68°F/51°F....0.21"....40%
September 29th - 68°F/46°F....0.00"....80%
September 30th - 66°F/39°F....0.00"....70%


My location

Updated: 7:48 AM GMT on October 01, 2007

Permalink

Karen/TD-13/Northeast weather.

By: sullivanweather, 8:14 AM GMT on September 25, 2007

Tropical sysnopsis.

TD-13 (94L)

94L

Convection in association with a surface trough dubbed 94L quite a few days ago formed a surface low along the southern end of the trough axis yesterday, and has now become orgainized enough to quailify as a tropical cyclone.

TD-13 is located about 200 miles east of the Mexican coastline and in no hurry to get a move on. It has drifted towards the southwest over the last 24 hours and this meandering should continue for at least the next 24 hours, perhaps jogging a bit more towards the south. After the trough to the systems north over the US mainland passes the system by a ridge should build behind it and eventually push the cyclone west onto the Mexican coastline. South Texas is not out of the danger zone, but the most likely path for this storm is south, then west.

TD-13 is over very warm waters, around 29-30C. An upper level anti-cyclone is over the Bay of Campeche, but shearing winds from the trough to the north is still impacting TD-13. As this trough lifts the upper high should become better established. Given the cyclones' slow movement it should be able to wait around and take advantage of the favorable upper environment that will develop. The only inhibiting factor could be dry air over the Mexican mainland that could become incorporated into the circulation. Given the amount of time it has to spend over water and the favorable upper environment that will develop there's no reason why this cyclone could not attain hurricane status before coming ashore. Not to beat a dead drum, but we all saw what happened with Humberto just a few weeks ago.

I'll be adding to this a bit later when more time becomes available.


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Karen

TD-12

----------------

Very large, well-orgainized tropical wave traversing the Eastern Atlantic was named TD-12 last night and Tropical Storm Karen this morning. Karen's movement has been towards the west-northwest over the previous 24 hours. The cyclone remains very large and should therefore intensify slowly. Convection is somewhat limited and most of the cloud field associated with Karen is comprised of convective debris. The cyclone is also currently experiencing light to moderate northwesterly shearing winds.

Steady but gradual strengthening should occur over the next 48-72 hours and Karen should achive hurricane status. Thereafter, a digging trough should create a more hostile environment which should weaken Karen to a tropical storm by 96 hours time.

Karen's movement should continue towards the west-northwest for the next 24-48 hours before a turn towards the northwest and eventually north-northwest should ensue for the remainder on the next 5 days. Beyond the 5 day forecast period a bend back towards the west should occur as it is this forecasters belief that the trough responsible for the northerly turn should pass the cyclone by.


Sorry for the vagueness of this forecast but time is short and I wanted to get a forecast out on Karen on the blog. I'll have a more in-depth synopsis later when time becomes available. Below is my 5-day track forecast for Karen.

Karen 5 day forecast.

*Green dot = tropical storm
*Yellow dot = Category 1 hurricane.

Karen 5-day forecast

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98L

9/26 - 2pm update

98L

The NHC has gained enough interest in the disturbance in the Florida Straits to tag it with invest '98L'. There's a surface circulation evident on visible satellite imagery but it is displaced about 50 miles to the southwest of the main area of convection.

The disturbance has been stationary over the last 60-72 hours but should soon begin moving towards the north-northeast in the low level flow ahead of an approaching trough from the west. This trough should accelerate this system up the East Coast, just offshore. There's a chance that the Outer Banks and southern New England could get clipped with this system as it skirts by. As the trough and associated cold front push offshore on Friday it should absorb the disturbance and help to create a rather powerful extratropical cyclone for the Canadian Maritimes.

At this time, given the systems' lack of organization, an intensity forecast is hard to come by. There's an outside chance that enough organization can be aquired to upgrade this system into a tropical cyclone, but nothing stronger than a 40-50kt tropical storm.

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9/26 - 3am

Possible tropical development in the Florida Straits?

An upper trough of low pressure has produced continued convective development over south Florida, the Keys, and Cuba for the last 48-72 hours. The NAM model develops a surface low in the region and brings it north-northeastward very quickly along the East Coast, perhaps close enough to Long Island and southern New England to have some level of impact on the area. Of course a surface low has yet to develop and until one does, if it does, details will be sketchy at best.

Updates will surely follow if something were to develop as this has the potential to impact the Northeast by the end of the week.


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Regional Forecast.

Record highs for selected cities - Tuesday, September 25th.

____________Record___Today's high

Binghamton, NY...81F - 86F*
Scranton, PA.........87F - 86F
Syracuse, NY........85F - 91F*
Central Park.........90F - 85F
Albany, NY............89F - 82F
Boston, MA............89F - 88F
Hartford, CT..........88F - 90F*
Pittsburgh, PA......92F - 88F
Burlington, VT......85F - 84F

(*) - Record tied or broken.

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Nowcast. 9/26 215pm

Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed over the northern and western sections of the region in broken line segments. Temperatures across the southeastern half of the region have risen into the 80's with record highs possible.

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Short term.

It'll be another warm summer-like day for most of the Northeast again on Wednesday with record highs possible from central New York into New England. The trough of low pressure approaching from the west and associated cold front will fire off some showers and thunderstorms across the western half of the region with isolated storms possible in the eastern half due to the heat and increasing levels of humidity. There's a small chance for severe weather tomorrow with the main threat being strong winds. High's tomorrow along the coastal plain could reach close to 90F where clouds don't infiltrate. Elsewhere across most of the eastern half of the interior will reach into the 80's. Across the western half of the interior clouds and precipitation will tend to hold temperatures down so 70's should be expected here along with far northern New England.

Mostly cloudy skies in humid airmass along with anomalous warmth will make for a rather mild Wednesday night. Showers and thunderstorms moving acorss the Northeast will tend to wane as the night progresses. There could even be some leftover severe weather during the evening, but no later than 11pm. Lows should drop into the low 70's along the Jersey Coast and the big cities. Elsewhere lows should only drop into the 60's except for some 50's in the higher elevations of northern New England.


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NE radar

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Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast. SST's have returned to near to above normal levels for late September from southern New England south, with continued near normal SST's from Cape Cod northward along the coast of Maine.


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Great Lakes water temperatures

Eastern Great Lakes water temperature as of August 26th.

------------

Great Lakes SST's 9-24

Great Lakes SST's as of 9/24.
___________________________________________________________




September daily weather statistics.

-----------------------------------

September 1st - 71F/52F....0.00"....90%
September 2nd - 73F/43F....0.00"....95%
September 3rd - 80F/48F....0.00"....95%
September 4th - 75F/54F....0.00"....85%
September 5th - 73F/53F....0.00"....40%
September 6th - 77F/55F....0.00"....40%
September 7th - 86F/57F....0.00"....95%
September 8th - 84F/65F....0.11"....50%
September 9th - 82F/63F....Trace....40%
September 10th - 77F/63F....0.00"....20%
September 11th - 66F/56F....0.68"....5%
September 12th - 65F/47F....0.02"....65%
September 13th - 70F/42F....0.00"....85%
September 14th - 69F/51F....Trace....10%
September 15th - 63F/44F....0.24"....40%
September 16th - 60F/37F....0.00"....40%
September 17th - 63F/35F....0.00"....90%
September 18th - 66F/37F....0.00"....90%
September 19th - 73F/39F....0.00"....95%
September 20th - 79F/44F....0.00"....100%
September 21st - 79F/55F....0.00"....90%
September 22nd - 79F/54F....0.00"....40%
September 23rd - 73F/50F....0.00"....80%
September 24th - 76F/45F....0.00"....95%
September 25th - 85F/46F....0.00"....95%
September 26th - 87F/60F....0.00"....70%
September 27th - 82F/63F....0.18"....60%


My location

Updated: 12:36 AM GMT on September 29, 2007

Permalink

Record highs possible 9/25

By: sullivanweather, 6:48 PM GMT on September 22, 2007

Regional Forecast.


Synopsis.

Cyclone over Hudson Bay is dragging the tail end of a cold front through the Northeast. Not a big difference in airmass is expected with the passage of this front with only slight reductions in temperature and humidity levels. Surface ridge builds into the region on Sunday behind cold front, then at mid and upper levels on Monday setting the stage for a run at record highs on Tuesday. Cold front will approach from the west on Wednesday and move into the region on Thursday with chances for showers and thunderstorms. Canadian high pressure builds back into the region Friday with clearing skies and temperatures dropping back below normal levels. Ridge should hold into the weekend with temperatures climbing back to near normal levels for the end of September.

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Short term.

Great weather is forecast for the first day of fall across the Northeast. High pressure building into the region should provide mostly sunny skies for most areas except for northern New England where there should be stratocumulus development during the afternoon under cold air advection and terrain enhancement. High temperatures should climb into the 70's across the coastal plain and the southern half of the interior. Across the northern half of the interior highs will make it into the upper 60's expect for far northern New England and higher terrain where temps will struggle to break 60 degrees due to stratocumulus development.

Clear skies and light winds Sunday night will make for ideal radiational cooling conditions. Lows will drop into the upper 30's to mid 40's north to south across the interior. Along the coastal plain lows will drop to the upper 40's to low 50's with lows being held in the upper 50's to near 60 degrees in the urban heat island areas.

High pressure moves off the coast on Monday with flow turning offshore. This should pump even warmer temperatures into the region with highs running up to 10 degrees above normal. Once again northern New England will be close to the baroclinic zone with a sharp drop in temperatures there with highs running closer to seasonal norms. Skies will be mostly sunny with some scattered cumulus development during the afternoon. Highs will reach into the 80's along the coastal plain and southern sections of the interior, excluding higher elevations, south of a Williamsport/Albany/Boston line. North of here temperatures will reach the 70's with 60's for far northern New England.

Skies will be clear again on Monday night but with increased levels of moisture being brought into the region on a southwesterly flow temperatures will be around 10 degrees warmer than Sunday night. Lows should drop to near 50 across northern New England with mid to upper 50's across the rest of the interior. Upper 50's to low 60's will be common along the coastal plain with upper 60's in the big cities.

Heights will continue to build on Tuesday as ridge axis lies squarely across the region. Strong summer-like 590mb+ mid level high parks itself right offshore. When combined with sunny skies and an offshore wind this should be enough to push temperatures close to record highs.

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Record highs for selected cities - Tuesday, September 25th.

Binghamton, NY - 81F
Scranton, PA - 87F
Syracuse, NY - 85F
Central Park - 90F
Albany, NY - 89F
Boston, MA - 89F
Hartford, CT - 88F
Pittsburgh - 92F
Burlington, VT - 85F


An increase in high clouds is expected Tuesday night as a cold front approaches from the west. Temperatures will run 10-15 degrees above normal. This translates to mid to upper 50's across northern New England with upper 50's to low 60's for the rest of the interior. Mid 60's along the coastal plain and lows will be near 70F in the big cities.

---------------------------------

Mid and longer term forecasts coming later.


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NE radar

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Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast. SST's have been hovering near or just below seasonal norms for the last week to ten days.


---------------------------

Great Lakes water temperatures

Eastern Great Lakes water temperature as of August 26th.

___________________________________________________________




September daily weather statistics.
-----------------------------------

September 1st - 71F/52F....0.00"....90%
September 2nd - 73F/43F....0.00"....95%
September 3rd - 80F/48F....0.00"....95%
September 4th - 75F/54F....0.00"....85%
September 5th - 73F/53F....0.00"....40%
September 6th - 77F/55F....0.00"....40%
September 7th - 86F/57F....0.00"....95%
September 8th - 84F/65F....0.11"....50%
September 9th - 82F/63F....Trace....40%
September 10th - 77F/63F....0.00"....20%
September 11th - 66F/56F....0.68"....5%
September 12th - 65F/47F....0.02"....65%
September 13th - 70F/42F....0.00"....85%
September 14th - 69F/51F....Trace....10%
September 15th - 63F/44F....0.24"....40%
September 16th - 60F/37F....0.00"....40%
September 17th - 63F/35F....0.00"....90%
September 18th - 66F/37F....0.00"....90%
September 19th - 73F/39F....0.00"....95%
September 20th - 79F/44F....0.00"....100%
September 21st - 79F/55F....0.00"....90%
September 22nd - 79F/54F....0.00"....40%
September 23rd - 73F/50F....0.00"....80%



My location

Updated: 2:58 AM GMT on September 24, 2007

Permalink

TD-10/Northeast weather.

By: sullivanweather, 5:44 PM GMT on September 17, 2007

Tropical discussion.

93L


Very complicated tropical cyclogenisis taking place in the northeast Gulf of Mexico this early morning. A tropical wave, interacting with an upper level low at the tail end of a frontal boundary has been affecting Florida over the last 60 hours. Thus far only non-tropical areas of low pressure have been able to form, two nights ago near Biscayne Bay and yesterday afternoon off Cape Canaveral. As this evening has progressed a new area of low pressure in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, west of Tampa, has developed. Initially this low was broad and elongated NNW-SSE but has become more organized recently and appears to be on its way to becoming a depression, most likely within the next 12-18 hours.

Despite this disturbance developing close to the northern Gulf Coast, its slow movement should allow for at least another 36 hours over the warm waters of the Gulf. Most of the dry air has been mixed out by convection and the system is now placed in a favorable position in relation to the upper low that has, until recently, spread 20+kts of shear over the entire development area. There's a good chance this system will attain tropical storm status, but it's rather large circulation will prevent any rapid intensification process.

I'm expecting a 45/50kt tropical storm to make landfall close to the Mobile-Pensacola area later this evening. Heavy rain, minor coastal flooding and isolated tornados should be the main threats from this potential storm. The stronger winds should be confined to small areas along the coast close to and to the east of where the center comes ashore.

More on this developing situation in the afternoon unless a depression is named before that time.


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Tropical depression 10

Late this morning 93L was upgraded to a sub-tropical depression. Since then the cyclone has aquired enough tropical characteristics to be classified as a tropical depression.

This depression doesn't have much more time over water before it makes landfall, most likely in the western Florida panhandle. This could also prevent this system from becoming a tropical storm and donning the name Jerry.

For the most part this should be a minor event aside from the isolated tornados that could develop in the outer bands of the storm. The storm's center is basically a small cluster of heavy rain and perhaps a few thunderstorms which could bring a wind gust up to tropical storm force, but this will likely be confined to isolated areas right along the coast where the center comes ashore.

Moisture from this system will eventually move across across southern and western Alabama, Mississippi and western Tennessee which could provide drought relief for these areas but missing most drought stricken areas of northeastern Alabama, Georgia and eastern Tennessee.

Update will follow when system makes landfall or if it's updraded to a tropical storm, which ever occurs first.


TD-10 11pm Update

Tropical Depression Ten has come ashore without becoming a tropical storm. The NHC has written its last advisory on TD-10 and this will be my final update as well.

Heavy rain squalls and isolated tornados are still possible. Rainfall amounts could reach up to 4 inches in isolated locations. Moisture from this system will move northwestward into Alabama and Mississippi over the next 12-24 hours.


Regional Forecast.

A large ridge of Canadian high pressure will be in control of the weather over the next 4 days. The initially cool airmass will gradually warm over the next 48 hours, bringing afternoon temperatures above normal. Overnight lows will go from below normal to near normal due to good radiational cooling conditions. A cold front will approach by day 6 and bring temperatures back closer to normal by day 7.

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Monday night should be the last of 3 very chilly nights for mid-September. High pressure will be moving across central and northern New England providing an ideal set-up for another night of good radiational cooling. Frost can be expected again in the normally colder areas of New england and northern New York. Low's in these locations should drop into the mid 30's. Elsewhere across the interior lows should drop into the upper 30's to mid 40's. Along the coastal plain lows should hold in the low 50's with mid to upper 50's in the big cities.

Tuesday will feature bright sunshine and a slight moderation in temperatures. High's will reach the mid 70's to near 80 degrees along the coastal plain. Across the interior highs should reach the mid 60's across the north to low 70's in the south.

Tuesday night will be another night of ideal radiational cooling conditions. However temperatures should be about 5 degrees warmer than Monday night with a moderating airmass.

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A continuation of clear skies and light winds for the Wednesday-Thursday night timeframe. High temperatures should climb back into the 80's along the coastal plain and in the big cities. Highs should also reach into the 80's in the Connecticut Valley, Hudson Valley and various smaller valleys across the interior. Across the rest of the interior and higher elevations highs should reach into the 70's.

Overnight lows should drop to near normal levels for mid-September with 40's to near 50 across the interior, low 50's along the coastal plain and near 60 in the big cities.

---------------

A cold front will approach from the northwest on Friday and move through the region on Saturday as high pressure retreats off the coast. This should put the region in a southwesterly flow and bring temperatures 5-10 degrees above normal for daytime highs Friday and Saturday and overnight lows Friday night. Most of the moisture and dynamics with this front lifts northward into Canada, hence, precipitation will be limited with only light amounts expected, under a half inch. The potential for thunderstorms will be low as well, so severe weather doesn't appear likely with this frontal passage.

After front crosses the region on Saturday high pressure will quickly build in Saturday night. Skies should gradually clear and any light precipitation will clear out of the area. The airmass behind this front isn't nearly as chilly as the one we're currently experiencing. Lows should drop to near normal levels.

Ridge will build over the region on Sunday and Monday at mid and upper levels bringing a warm airmass into the region with temperatures running 5-10 degrees above normal once again under mostly clear skies and an increasing southwesterly flow.

***********
9/20 Update

Record highs are possible Monday and Tuesday across the Northeast. I will have an in-depth update later today.

***********

Beyond 7 days time the region should be on the western periphery of an extension of the Bermuda high through the end of the month. This should bring a nice stretch of indian summer with varying levels of above normal temperatures and increasing humidity. This, however, is not a good large scale set-up and anything from the deep tropics could get steered right towards the East Coast. I would adivse that chances for seeing a landfalling tropical storm during the last week of September along the East Coast are higher than climatological norms.




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NE radar

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Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast. SST's have been hovering near or just below seasonal norms for the last week to ten days.


---------------------------

Great Lakes water temperatures

Eastern Great Lakes water temperature as of August 26th.

___________________________________________________________




September daily weather statistics.
-----------------------------------

September 1st - 71F/52F....0.00"....90%
September 2nd - 73F/43F....0.00"....95%
September 3rd - 80F/48F....0.00"....95%
September 4th - 75F/54F....0.00"....85%
September 5th - 73F/53F....0.00"....40%
September 6th - 77F/55F....0.00"....40%
September 7th - 86F/57F....0.00"....95%
September 8th - 84F/65F....0.11"....50%
September 9th - 82F/63F....Trace....40%
September 10th - 77F/63F....0.00"....20%
September 11th - 66F/56F....0.68"....5%
September 12th - 65F/47F....0.02"....65%
September 13th - 70F/42F....0.00"....85%
September 14th - 69F/51F....Trace....10%
September 15th - 63F/44F....0.24"....40%
September 16th - 60F/37F....0.00"....40%
September 17th - 63F/35F....0.00"....90%
September 18th - 66F/37F....0.00"....90%
September 19th - 73F/39F....0.00"....95%
September 20th - 79F/44F....0.00"....100%
September 21st - 79F/55F....0.00"....90%



My location

Updated: 2:54 AM GMT on September 22, 2007

Permalink

NE weather/Ingrid/Gilbert

By: sullivanweather, 4:58 PM GMT on September 14, 2007

This date in weather history.

September 16th, 1988 - Hurricane Gilbert

On this date in 1988 Hurricane Gilbert made its final landfall just north of La Pesca, Mexico as a categrory 3 hurricane. Gilbert left a wide trail of destruction as it completely leveled Jamacia, became the most insense hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic basin (888mb), became the 1st category 5 hurricane to make landfall in almost 30 years in the Atlantic basin (Camille 1969) when it slammed into the Yucatan, then produced flooding rains along its path from Mexico into the United States.

Hurricane Gilbert killed over 300 and caused over 5 billion dollars in damage.

The final report on Hurricane Gilbert from the National Hurricane Center can be found here: Hurricane Gilbert


Tropical discussion.


91L 9/10 11pm EDT

A large area of convection associated with a tropical wave has slowly been consolidating around an area of low pressure along the wave axis near 11N. There's cyclonic turning of the cloud field noted at both low and mid levels with decent outflow to the north of the disturbance. Chances are good for the development of a tropical cyclone with this disturbance within the next 24-48 hours.

The movement of lowest pressure for this disturbance should be towards the west-northwest for the first 48 hours then a more northwesterly motion should ensue beyond 48 hours. By that time I'm expected a tropical cyclone should have formed, most likely of tropical storm strength moving towards the Northern Leeward Islands. Movement of this disturbance/storm should also be slow as steering currents are expected to be weak.

An upper low forecasted to be near the central Carribean could also throw some wind shear in the direction of this disturbance in about 4 days time, so no eye-popping intensification process a la Felix is expected either. Instead I'm expecting a slowly developing ragged like storm that should be on the large side of normal.

Of course this storm has yet to develop so I won't even venture further than 96 hours out. I should have an update on this possible developing storm within the next 24 hours as the situation becomes more clear.

--------

91L Update - 9/11 2100EDT

Earlier today 2 centers of circulation were noted on visible stellite imagery. An elongated surface circulation oriented SW-NE, and a mid-level center about 40-50 miles northwest of the surface low.

As the afternoon has progressd the mid-level center has spun further out ahead of the surface circulation and has become undiscernable. However, the surface circulation has become much better defined and is located on the eastern edge of a strong burst of convection. There's also a vast increase in mid-level cloudiness in the eastern semicircle which indicates to me air is rising and the circulation is starting to draw in surrounding moisture.

This surface low is now located near 12N, 42W. This movement from earlier today is around 305 or northwesterly at around 8 kts. This motion should continue for the next couple of days. Thus far the storm has been gaining roughly 4-5 degrees of longitude per day. This would put the storm at the longitude of the Leeward islands in about 120 hours.

With a consolidation of convection around a better defined center of circulation I expect that 91L will become a tropical depression within the next 24 hours and a tropical storm within the next 48 hours which would be our 8th named storm of the season - Humberto.

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Tropical Depression #8 Update 9/12 11am

91L has aquired enough organization to be declared a tropical depression by the NHC.

Max sustained winds are 35MPH with a 1007mb central pressure.

I'll have a complete in-depth update later today.

On a side note: Tropical Depression #9 has developed off the Texas coast and could steal the name Humberto from TD#8 because of the intermediate advisory that will come out at 2pm this afternoon.

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Ingrid(91L) 9/14 Update 0245pm EDT.

Tropical storm Ingrid was named last night at the 11pm advisory (#7). Hurricane hunter aircraft found 35kt. surface winds and a pressure of 1002mb. Since then the overall structure of the cyclone has not changed as now a westerly shear environment has taken shape due to twin upper level lows, one to the north of Ingrid and another to the northwest. These upper lows have helped to carve out a rather large upper trough over the Carribean extending northeastward into the central Atlantic creating a hostile environment, not only for development, but also for maintaining strength.

With wind shear expected to be ~20-25kts over the next 48 hours Ingrid should be able to maintain strength as a minimal tropical storm. Beyond the first 48 hours wind shear could relax for a 12-36 hour period or so which could allow for a brief modest strengthening (45-55kts.) Given the storms northwesterly motion, which is expected to continue, Ingrid would move into an area of even higher shear beyond 84 hours which should be sufficient to weaken the storm considerably. If Ingrid could survive that next period of shear there could be a more favorable environment for development, but by then it could be to late.

Thus far since being named a tropical cyclone Ingrid has been on a WNW/NW course between 6 and 10mph. This track should continue for at least the next 72 hours and should bring Ingrid a few hundred miles northeast of the northern Leewrad Islands. Once there steering currents are expected to become even more weak which would slow Ingrid down to a northwesterly or northerly drift for 36-48 hours. Thereafter a weakness is forecast to develop around 60W in the west-east ridge to the north would could allow for Ingrid to slowly move northward.

Next update will be tomorrow unless there's a big surprise.
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Regional Forecast.

Coming soon.

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NE radar

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Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast. SST's have been hovering near or just below seasonal norms for the last week to ten days.


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Great Lakes water temperatures

Eastern Great Lakes water temperature as of August 26th.

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September daily weather statistics.
-----------------------------------

September 1st - 71F/52F....0.00"....90%
September 2nd - 73F/43F....0.00"....95%
September 3rd - 80F/48F....0.00"....95%
September 4th - 75F/54F....0.00"....85%
September 5th - 73F/53F....0.00"....40%
September 6th - 77F/55F....0.00"....40%
September 7th - 86F/57F....0.00"....95%
September 8th - 84F/65F....0.11"....50%
September 9th - 82F/63F....Trace....40%
September 10th - 77F/63F....0.00"....20%
September 11th - 66F/56F....0.68"....5%
September 12th - 65F/47F....0.02"....65%
September 13th - 70F/42F....0.00"....85%
September 14th - 69F/51F....Trace....10%
September 15th - 63F/44F....0.24"....40%



My location

Updated: 4:55 PM GMT on September 16, 2007

Permalink

NE weather/Humberto/Donna/TD8

By: sullivanweather, 12:51 AM GMT on September 11, 2007

Tropical threat areas.

Humberto 9/12 2pm

A tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico (90L) which had taken forever to orgainize over the last 3 days (even dropped as an invest) has quickly gone from being classified a depression this morning and now is Tropical Storm Humberto.

There's not too much longer that this tropical storm has to spend over water but intensification is likely until this system reaches the upper Texas coast later this evening. There's a chance that Humberto could strengthen into a strong tropical storm despite its close proximity to land. In 1995 Tropical Storm Gabrielle developed close to the coast of Mexico and strengthened into a 60kt tropical storm just offshore before making landfall.

Although strong winds could cause some localized minor damage the bigger concern will be the prospect for flooding rainfall. In 2001 Tropical Storm Allison produced major flooding over southeastern Texas eastward into Louisiana with rainfall totals in excess of 2 feet in a few locations.

There's a chance that this storm could be left behind by the trough that's currently digging into the Upper Midwest which would leave this storm to linger over those same areas to rain itself out. Currently I expect that the trough will pick this storm up and bring it across the Southeast Thursday and Friday.

To sum up I'm forecasting landfall of a 55kt tropical storm to come ashore near the Galveston area later this evening. Rainfall totals will average 3-8 inches with isolated amounts exceeding a foot. There could also be a 2-3 foot storm surge from the Galveston area extending northwards along the coast for 50 miles or so. As with any landfalling tropical cyclone the possibility exists for isolated tornados as well. After making landfall the storm should crawl up along the Texas coast, just inland, then accelerate northeastwards as it moves into a weakness provided by the trough digging into the Midwest. As moisture from Humberto gets entrained into the frontal system 2-6 inches of rain could fall in a swath across the Southeast from southern Louisiana to the Carolinas Thursday and Friday. This could provide some much needed rainfall for the drought-stricken areas of Alabama and Georgia.


As mentioned below in the assesment of TD#8 the name 'Humberto' was stolen by TD#9 as per the 1pm CDT intermediate advisory by the NHC.

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Hurricane Humberto 9/13 0530UTC

Humberto becomes 3rd Atlantic hurricane of the 2007 season.

As per a special advisory from the NHC Humberto has become a hurricane with 70kt sustained winds and a central pressure of 992mb.

The 8 mile wide ragged eye of Humberto was roughly 30 miles east of Galveston, Texas at 0515UTC and moving towards the north-northeast around 6-7kts. Humberto should make landfall in about 3 hours roughly 50 miles northeast of Galveston. Hurricane force winds should only be felt over a small low populated area along the coastline.

Although the storm is moving slowly I expect a gradual increase in foward speed over the next 24 hours and for the system to ultimately become absorbed into a strong trough currently digging into the Upper Midwest. This should bring a solid shield of rain and embedded thunderstorms across areas in the Southeast parched from this spring and summers' drought. It won't be drought busting rainfall, but perhaps a noticable difference will appear in the Palmer drought index across the Southeast.


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Anatomy of development of a tropical cyclone/low out of the ITCZ

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91L 9/10 11pm EDT

A large area of convection associated with a tropical wave has slowly been consolidating around an area of low pressure along the wave axis near 11N. There's cyclonic turning of the cloud field noted at both low and mid levels with decent outflow to the north of the disturbance. Chances are good for the development of a tropical cyclone with this disturbance within the next 24-48 hours.

The movement of lowest pressure for this disturbance should be towards the west-northwest for the first 48 hours then a more northwesterly motion should ensue beyond 48 hours. By that time I'm expected a tropical cyclone should have formed, most likely of tropical storm strength moving towards the Northern Leeward Islands. Movement of this disturbance/storm should also be slow as steering currents are expected to be weak.

An upper low forecasted to be near the central Carribean could also throw some wind shear in the direction of this disturbance in about 4 days time, so no eye-popping intensification process a la Felix is expected either. Instead I'm expecting a slowly developing ragged like storm that should be on the large side of normal.

Of course this storm has yet to develop so I won't even venture further than 96 hours out. I should have an update on this possible developing storm within the next 24 hours as the situation becomes more clear.

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91L Update - 9/11 2100EDT

Earlier today 2 centers of circulation were noted on visible stellite imagery. An elongated surface circulation oriented SW-NE, and a mid-level center about 40-50 miles northwest of the surface low.

As the afternoon has progressd the mid-level center has spun further out ahead of the surface circulation and has become undiscernable. However, the surface circulation has become much better defined and is located on the eastern edge of a strong burst of convection. There's also a vast increase in mid-level cloudiness in the eastern semicircle which indicates to me air is rising and the circulation is starting to draw in surrounding moisture.

This surface low is now located near 12N, 42W. This movement from earlier today is around 305 or northwesterly at around 8 kts. This motion should continue for the next couple of days. Thus far the storm has been gaining roughly 4-5 degrees of longitude per day. This would put the storm at the longitude of the Leeward islands in about 120 hours.

With a consolidation of convection around a better defined center of circulation I expect that 91L will become a tropical depression within the next 24 hours and a tropical storm within the next 48 hours which would be our 8th named storm of the season - Humberto.

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Tropical Depression #8 Update 9/12 11am

91L has aquired enough organization to be declared a tropical depression by the NHC.

Max sustained winds are 35MPH with a 1007mb central pressure.

I'll have a complete in-depth update later today.

On a side note: Tropical Depression #9 has developed off the Texas coast and could steal the name Humberto from TD#8 because of the intermediate advisory that will come out at 2pm this afternoon.

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This date in weather history.

September 10th-13th, 1960.

Hurricane Donna.

Donna over the Keys


Donna was a long-lived Cape Verde storm that achived category 5 status and spent the most consecutive hours as a major hurricane. The storm also affected the northern Leeward Islands the Turks and Ciacos Islands, the southern Bahamas, 2 landfalls in Florida, then up the East Coast making landfalls in North Carolina, Long Island and finally in southern New England. There was even flooding rains in Canada.

Donna accumulated the 4th highest ever A.C.E for Atlantic hurricanes at 64.55. Winds of over 100mph were felt along almost every state along the Eastern Seaboard, including a 138mph wind gust at Blue Hill Observatory in Milton, Massachusetts. Over 350 deaths can be directly attributed to Donna although the death toll in the United States was low for a storm of that magnitude due to spread of imformation by media outlets about the severity of the storm.
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Regional Forecast.

Big changes in the overall weather pattern this week as two strong fall-like frontal boundaries push their way through the region. First frontal boundary moves through Tuesday and Tuesday night, the second on Friday night and Saturday. Each frontal passage should be followed by mainly dry and seasonably cool weather, especially Saturday night where there could be a widespread frost for much of northern New York and New England.

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A rather potent mid-level disturbance will combine with a surface frontal boundary on Tuesday to provide the area with showers and thunderstorms. A pocket of moisture and shortwave energy will work it's way up along the coast during the morning. This will be the focus for heavier showers and thundershowers from New York City to Boston. In western sections percipitation will be associated with the actual cold front and a sharp trough at upper levels that will quickly move west to east during the day. Rainfall should average around half an inch with higher amounts up to an inch in some spots, mainly to the north. There could also be a windy squall line of low-topped convection right along the frontal boundary that could provide a quick half inch of rain in 15 minutes and 40mph wind gusts. Highs will reach the 60's across northern New York and New England with 70's across the rest of the interior. Highs could make it into the low 80's along the coastal plain from New York City south.

Low pressure wraps up over eastern Canada Tuesday night just north of Maine. The cold front will move through New England and offshore by dawn with precipitation ending expect for some terrain enhanced showers up north. Cloud cover should be widespread across most of the interior. A break-up of the overcast is expected along the coastal plain with low there in the low 60's. Lows in the 50's across the interior will be common expect for northern New York and Vermont where lows could drop into the 40's at higher elevations.


Wednesday morning will get off the a breezy start with a noticable change in airmass. Skies will be clearing during the morning for most areas. The higher terrain of northern New York and New England could take a while, however, to see a break in the cloud cover. Immediately downwind of the Great Lakes could see extra cloud cover as well. Temperatures will climb into the 70's for the southern half of the interior and the coastal plain. Highs could even reach 80F in the warmest locales. Further north where clouds stick around longer into the day highs should remain in the 60's with 50's for the higher terrain. Winds should slacken by late afternoon for the southern half of the region as high pressure begin to build into the area from the west.

Mainly clear skies along with light winds are expected Wednesday night as high pressure moves over the region. Lows will drop into the 30's across northern New york and New England where some frost is possible. Elsewhere across the interior lows will drop into the 40's with 50's along the coastal plain. Urban heat island areas could be held near 60F.

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High pressure moves off the coast on Thursday and allows warmer air to move into the area on a light southerly flow. Mainly sunny skies are expected with high temperatures close to seasonal normal levels for mid-September, a couple of degrees warmer than Wednesday.

A slight increase in cloud cover, as well as warmer 850mb temps and a southerly flow will help to keep lows 5-15 degrees warmer Thursday night compared to Wednesday night across the southern sections of the region. This translates to mid 60's along the coast and big cities with lows near 60F along the rest of the coastal plain. Across the southern half of the interior lows should drop into the 50's, with 40's across the northern half of the interior. Some of the coldest locations in northern New England could drop into the upper 30's so a wide range of overnight lows is expected.

Precipitation from next cold front moves into western sections by Friday. This is a strong cold front with 850mb temperatures falling below 0C behind it. Very impressive dynamics appear to be associated with this sharp trough. A period of showers and thunderstorm with a squall line along the wind shift appears to be a likely event. Highs on Friday will climb back into the 80's along the coastal plain and big cities under partly cloudy skies. Across the interior excluding western sections 70's will be common with 60's across northern New England and western sections that get into the percipitation.

Strong cold front continues its push through the Northeast Friday night with scattered showers out ahead of it. Lows should range from the 60's along the coastal plain to the 50's across the interior and 40's across the far north.

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Long term forecast coming later.


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NE radar

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Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast. SST's have been hovering near or just below seasonal norms for the last week to ten days.


---------------------------

Great Lakes water temperatures

Eastern Great Lakes water temperature as of August 26th.

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September daily weather statistics.
-----------------------------------

September 1st - 71F/52F....0.00"....90%
September 2nd - 73F/43F....0.00"....95%
September 3rd - 80F/48F....0.00"....95%
September 4th - 75F/54F....0.00"....85%
September 5th - 73F/53F....0.00"....40%
September 6th - 77F/55F....0.00"....40%
September 7th - 86F/57F....0.00"....95%
September 8th - 84F/65F....0.11"....50%
September 9th - 82F/63F....Trace....40%
September 10th - 77F/63F....0.00"....20%
September 11th - 66F/56F....0.68"....5%
September 12th - 65F/47F....0.02"....65%
September 13th - 70F/42F....0.00"....85%



My location

Updated: 12:54 PM GMT on September 14, 2007

Permalink

Gabrielle/1900 Galveston hurricane.

By: sullivanweather, 4:16 AM GMT on September 01, 2007

Tropical threat areas.

9/2 3:30am - Invest 99L possibly forming off the East Coast

An area of low pressure appears to have developed off of the Southeast Coast along a stalled frontal boundary. Pressures are falling all along the Southeast Coast and at offshore bouys. Rotation is evident in radar imagery out of Charleston and Jacksonville. There's tremendous amounts of moisture in the vicinity of this low. All one has to do is look at some of the impressive rainfall totals out of Georgia and South Carolina over the last 24 hours to get a sense of the amount of moisture associated with this developing disturbance.

More on this later as more details become clear.

9/4 Update (4pm):

The area of low pressure off the Southeast coast line has gradually gotten itself better orgainized ove the last 60 hours and is now starting to show signs that it could develop into a tropical cyclone. The low pressure has moved further offshore and convection has developed over the center. Frontal like features still extend to the southwest and northeast of this system and the northwestern side of the storm is convection-free. Wind shear over the system appears to be relaxing and the only limiting factor at this time appears to be a very large push of dry air in association with the trough moving off the East Coast.

As for the track of this system, the trough moving off the East Coast presently shouldn't be strong enough to capture 99L and whisk it away from the coast. Height fields show that this trough doesn't have much amplitiude to it and it should move quickly offshore and be replaced by a ridge. This ridge building north of the system should be strong enough to steer 99L back towards the East Coast by the end of the week. Now it's too early to tell if any specific location along the coast carries a higher threat than others since the storm will be meandering out there for several days. But Cape Hatteras comes to mind as well as Long Island and southern New England. Some models do have this system making a turn up the coast by the weekend as it gets caught up in the next approaching trough.

99L, if it develops, shouldn't put on any type of strenghtening display that Felix just showed. The system has a large area of dry air to it's north that it'll have to overcome and that ought to take awhile. Any intensification process will be slow and drawn out. Development into a tropical storm over the next 72 hours and possibly into a minimal hurricane in 120 hours is not out of the question, but that's 3 and 5 days away respectively. Plenty of time to watch 99L as it spins off the coastline.

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9/4 Update (11pm):

99L continues to undergo westerly shear with most of the convection confined to the southeastern quadrant and the circulation center is still elongated southwest to northeast. There's also still lots of dry air surrounding the northern and western sides of this low. There's still a chance that the NHC could name this system a sub-tropical depression/storm within the next 24 hours.

The sea surface temperatures where 99L is located are around 28-29C. Once 99L is able to mix out the dry air surrounding it, which should take around 36-48 hours, conditons will exist for full transition into a tropical cyclone. The storm is currently moving east-southeastward and is now almost 400 miles off the north Florida coast. Although 99L has been moving away from the coast this shouldn't last long as the system should eventually stall and turn back towards the coast over the next 24-48 hours.

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9/5 Update 12:30pm

Wind shear has continued to prevent any significant development from 99L over the last 12 hours with all of the convection still on the east side of the system. The low level circulation center associated with 99L is now clearly exposed and appears to be moving in a ENE direction (65 heading) over the last 6 hours. The trough extending towards the southwest of the system has been less discernable this morning but is still present. Hurricane hunters are en route to the system and should be there within the next 90 minutes. At that time they should find enough tropical characterisitcs to name 99L a sub-tropical depression/storm based on how strong the winds are.

There's still lots of dry air to the west of 99L that'll prevent this system from developing quickly. Convection should remain lopsided until the shear relaxes and the dry air mixes out. Thereafter a period of intensification is likely after 48 hours or so into a strong tropical storm/minimal hurricane.

Current thinking on the projected path of 99L is still the same. It should stall within the next 12-24 hours and begin to move back towards the west as high pressure builds to its north and east. An approaching trough over the weekend should capture this storm and then whisk it northwards. Models are all over the place with the future track of 99L with some taking it into the Outer Banks, other take it into South Carolina, and some have the trough completely pass the system by and leave it to meander just north of the Bahamas.

Currently my thinking brings this storm skirting by the Carolinas just offshore. It should then move up along the coast to around 38-40N before making a right turn and heading out to sea before becoming absorbed by the frontal boundary by the beginning of next week.

Will have another update if the hurricane hunters find anything worth designating. If not then later this afternoon/evening.

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9/6 update 10:30pm

The dry air and wind shear thus far has been overwhelming for 99L preventing any development and to some effect causing a loss of organization. However, the low level center of the storm is still discernable and there has been two small flare ups of convection that's keeping this system on life support. The dry environment surrounding 99L has gradually been diminishing over the last 12 hours and the wind shear has been reduced from the 25-30kts earlier to around 20kts presently. Although the conditions are barely marginable, and in no way favorable for any significant development, the tenacity of 99L to be able to maintain its center of circulation through this tribulation won't allow this forecaster to write this system off as dead. Conditions should gradually improve over the next 24-36 hours and 99L could take advantage.

The forecast track of 99L remains unchanged in the short term. The storm has begun to move back towards the south and west, about 1W and 2S over the last 24 hours. The big change in the forecast is the trough swinging off the coast this weekend and early next week might not be strong enough to pick this system up and could leave it behind to meander off the coast for severeal more days as the high pressure north of Bermuda really establishes itself there. Of course the longer this system stays over water with its circulation intact the longer it has to potentialy develop. Whatever situation plays itself out the most likely area to be affected remains the Outer Banks of North Carolina, even if nothing forms in terms of a tropical cyclone.

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9/7 Update 3pm

The situation with 99L has turned for the worst for residents living along the East Coast. Over the last 12 hours there has been a dramatic increase in convection as the wind shear has reduced to around 15kts. The center of circulation is just to the south of the main area of convection, so the storm is still lopsided, but overall in much better shape than it was at this time yesterday. Hurricane hunters are en route to this system and I fully expect that a named system will come of this recon flight, whether a tropical despression or tropical storm. There is a slim chance that they could find a sub-tropical system, but a full transition into a tropical storm is expected.

The movement has been towards the northwest (~300 heading) over the last 6 hours at around 5-6kts. This motion should continue over the next 24 hours with perhaps a slight bend more towards the west and an increase in foward speed by a couple of knots. That would bring the center of the storm 150-200 miles off the coast in 24 hours. Thereafter the storm should begin to feel the effects of a trough approaching from the west which should draw the system towards the north. By Sunday the Outer Banks should be feeling the effects of, by then, Gabrielle.

Now that the storm has gotten it's act together a steady rate of strengthening should ensue. 99L should reach tropical storm strength by tonight and continue to increase in intensity to perhaps a minimal hurricane by Sunday morning. There's still lots of dry air surrounding the west side of this storm which will inhibit any kind of explosive development. By Sunday the system should also be interacting with land depending on how far west it travels. Bottom line is that for folks living along the Carolina coastline and points north should be prepared for at least tropical storm force winds and heavy rain and for folks along the innediate coast, minimal hurricane force winds. Thee's only about 48 hours left to prepare along the Carolina coast and about 72 hours left as far north as the Delmarva. Will have additional updates as conditions change, which could be as early as the recon flight into soon to be Gabrielle.

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9/7 Update 11pm

The waiting is over. The NHC has just classified the 7th named storm of the season as Sub-tropical Storm Gabrielle. Tropical storm watches are now posted from Edisto Beach, South Carolina to Oregon Inlet, North Carolina including the Pamlico Sound. Gabrielle has 45mph sustained winds with a 1011mb central pressure.

Gabrielle remains disorgainized with her strongest winds along a curved band of convection covering the northern semi-circle of the storm. The NHC is calling for little change in strength over the next 24 hours however my feeling is that we could see winds increase to 60MPH in that timeframe as the storm eventually transisitions into a full tropical storm. The storm is still about 400 miles offshore so there is time for Gabrielle to become a minimal hurricane.

Gabrielle is moving towards the west-northwest around 10mph. A continuation of this motion is expected over the next 24 hours with a gradual turn to the northwest thereafter. This would bring the center of Gabrielle close to the Outer Banks by Sunday afternoon. From there a turn to the north and northeast is expected, bringing the storm offshore the Tidewater area by Monday.

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9/8 Update 5pm

The NHC has just designated Gabrielle as a fully tropical entity. Maximum sustained winds have lowered to 40 MPH, but an increase in strength to 50 MPH sustained winds are forecast by landfall near Morehead City and along the Outer Banks.

More to follow later...
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This date in weather history.

September 8th, 1900.

The Great Galveston Hurricane.

A category four hurricane that made landfall on the barrier island boomtown of Galveston, Texas is the deadliest natrual disaster is United States history. The storm took between 8,000 and 12,000 lives, the exact number will never be known.

The hurricane's estimated sustained wind at landfall was 135mph, but could have been higher or lower. Reliable wind reports ceased when the anemometer atop the weather bureau was blown off in 100mph winds, 2 hours before landfall. The storm surge reached 15 feet and completely swept over the island causing most of the deaths.

The hurricane's origin can be traced back to an African wave that emerged off the coast. From there it tracked across the central Atlantic Ocean and into the Carribean sea. The storm rolled over the Greater Antilles much in the way 1998's Georges did. Once emerging into the Gulf of Mexico the storm continued westward gaining intensity up until its eventual landfall in Galvestion on this date 107 years ago.

The high death toll in the Galveston hurricane hilights the most dangerous aspect of any landfalling hurricane - storm surge. For quite some time most deaths attributed to landfalling hurricanes in this country has been from inland flooding. The media has taken this aspect of a hurricanes' destructive power and ran with it. The deadliest part of a hurricane is the storm surge, especially if a major hurricane makes landfall in a highly populated area vulnerable to storm surge. I believe that message had been lost until Katrina and even still, because of politics and the need to blame others, could still be lost. I still believe those that believe this was a failure of government to build proper levys still don't have proper appreciation of natures' power. Katrina exposed us all to the grim reality that a natrual disaster can occur in this country and kill thousands of people. It should be a lesson to those living in an area of high population vulnerable to storm surge flooding that they should heed evacuations orders and not expect the nanny government to protect them. Many like to blame these disasters on lack of government planning, but individual planning is just as important. I recommend reading Patrap's blog on hurricane preparedness to help you in making important life or death decisions if your area is under the threat of a tropical cyclone.


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Regional forecast.

High pressure is currently building into the region after today's cold frontal passage should slip offshore Wednesday afternoon. This high will move to a position between Newfoundland and Bermuda and anchor itself there Thursday-Saturday with a ridge axis extending back towards the Northeast. A trough of low pressure will approach the area by Saturday while at the same time a tropical disturbance, which is currently a non-tropical area of low pressure, will move towards the area from offshore waters.

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High pressure will be cresting over the region on Wednesday bringing mostly sunny skies to most areas, aside from some morning low clouds and perhaps an isolated shower across western and central New York and north-central Pennsylvania. Even in those areas clouds should burn off by late morning providing afternoon sunshine with some scattered cumulus development. Highs tomorrow will rebound into the low to mid 60's after a frosty start in northern New England under the core of the cooler air. Elsewhere across the rest of New England, New York, northern Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey highs should reach the 70's. Across central and southern New Jersey and southern Pennsylvania highs will break 80F. Winds will be light and variable.

Clear skies and light winds tonight will make for ideal radiational cooling conditions across the Northeast and allow for scattered areas of frost once again across northern New England and Adirondack valley locations. Lows there should drop to the mid 30's with low 40's across the rest of northern New England. Central and northern New York and central New England will drop to the mid to upper 40's with low to mid 50's across the rest of the interior and coastal plain. Lows should be held above 60F in the major urban centers.

Return flow around high pressure on Thursday will bring temperatures back above seasonal norms. Mostly sunny skies and a southwesterly breeze will usher in the warm airmass over the Ohio Valley and Midwest into the area. Highs should reach the mid to upper 80's from southern Pennsylvania eastwards to the coastal plain including the Philadelphia, New York and Hartford metro areas. Highs will also reach into the low to mid 80's for the rest of Pennsylvania, central New York and central and southern New England. Across northern New York and New England highs will be in the 70's.

Skies remain clear Thursday night allowing for low temperatures to drop to near to slightly above seasonal levels for early September.

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The heat will be on Friday with highs approaching 10 degrees warmer than seasonal norms under mostly sunny skies and increasing levels of humidity. Highs will reach near 90F along the coastal plain, including urban areas. Highs will also get close to 90F across the rest of southern Pennsylvania, the Hudson Valley and Connecticut Valley. Elsewhere across the interior highs will reach into the 80's except for the higher terrain of northern New York and New England where highs will still reach the upper 70's. With more moisture in the area and a developing warm frontal feature ahead of developing low in Canada some thunderstorms could develop during the afternoon across the far northern areas close to the Canadaian border.

With humidity levels rising and an increase in clouds via either approaching trough from the west and/or potential tropical system offshore overnight lows Friday night should be held up. Lows should only drop into the 60's across most of the interior except for some 50's across northern New England. Closer to the coasts of New Jersey and southern New England including urban areas lows will drop into the upper 60's and low 70's.

The Northeast will be caught between two approaching systems this weekend. One is the trough moving into the area from the west, the other is the potential tropical system for coastal areas. Both systems should be high impact events, the tropical system for obvious reasons, and the trough for the potential of severe weather.

As discussed above 99L could become a tropical storm and/or hurricane by this weekend off the East Coast and turn back this way. With the trough approaching from the west this should act to pick up this storm and bring it north between itself and the high to the east. Of course the big question is when will 99L begin to move back towards the west and how far will it get before getting picked up. The further west it moves the more of a threat it will be to the Carolinas, if it hardly moves west at all it could simply pass offshore. Even the Carolinas scenario would provide some effects here in the Northeast as the moisture from the storm will get lifted northwards along the frontal boundary to produce heavy rains.

Regardless of the tropical threat a frontal boundary will still move into a warm humid airmass over the area and produce showers and thunderstorms, some of which could be severe on Saturday. There could even be entrainment of moisture at upper levels from Hurricane Henriette currently in the Sea of Cortez. Temperatures should be above seasonal norms for both highs and lows on Saturday. By Sunday lows shoudl remain warmer than seasonal averages but highs should be close to average with clouds and percipitation.

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Trough never really pushes through the Northeast but instead lifts out of the area by Monday. Precipitation from both trough and possible tropical system should be exiting the region during Monday morning with improving conditions by afternoon. High pressure will be moving north of the area across southern Canada with flow around high out of the northeast. Temperatures will be close to seasonal norms.


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August daily values in Bethel, New York.

August 2007 temperatures - Bethel, NY

August averages

High: 77.29F - Norm: 74.97F - Departure: 2.32F above normal
Low: 56.90F - Norm: 55.84F - Departure: 1.06F above normal
Monthly average: 67.10F - Norm: 65.40F - Departure: 1.7F above normal


Bethel, NY precipitation

August precipitation: 3.90"
August normal: ****

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NE radar

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storm reports




Northern New England storm reports


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Northeast SST's


Current SST's off the Northeast Coast. SST's have edged up slightly over the last several days and are now near seasonal norms.

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Great Lakes water temperatures

Eastern Great Lakes water temperature as of August 26th.

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September daily weather statistics.
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September 1st - 71F/52F....0.00"....90%
September 2nd - 73F/43F....0.00"....95%
September 3rd - 80F/48F....0.00"....95%
September 4th - 75F/54F....0.00"....85%
September 5th - 73F/53F....0.00"....40%
September 6th - 77F/55F....0.00"....40%
September 7th - 86F/57F....0.00"....95%
September 8th - 84F/65F....0.11"....50%



My location

Updated: 4:47 AM GMT on September 09, 2007

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About sullivanweather

Thomas is an avid weather enthusiast, landscaper and organic gardener. This blog is dedicated to Northeast and tropical weather forecasting. Enjoy!

Local Weather

Clear
25 °F
Clear

Personal Weather Stations

Barryville, NY
Elevation: 1145 ft
Temperature: 25.7 °F
Dew Point: 23.2 °F
Humidity: 90%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 0.0 mph
Updated: 1:41 AM EDT on April 17, 2014
Town of Lumberland
Glen Spey, NY
Elevation: 1293 ft
Temperature: 26.9 °F
Dew Point: 13.7 °F
Humidity: 57%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 0.0 mph
Updated: 1:40 AM EDT on April 17, 2014

About Personal Weather Stations