Thomas is an avid weather enthusiast, landscaper and organic gardener. This blog is dedicated to Northeast and tropical weather forecasting. Enjoy!
By: sullivanweather, 9:14 AM GMT on August 01, 2007
This date in Northeast weather history.
August 31st, 1954
Category three Hurricane Carol made landfall on Long Island and later Connecticut. Winds of over 110mph with some gusts recorded as high as 135mph at Block Island along with a 10-15ft storm surge swept across eastern Long Island and southern New England. Providence, R.I. inundated by a 12ft. storm surge and some areas had a surge greater than the Great 1938 hurricane, which most storms are compared to here. 68 confirmed fatalities were directly related to Carol's fury as it ripped up the East Coast.
Because of Carol's rapid foward speed it was able to maintain hurricane intensity into Massachusettes where wind gusts up to 100mph were recorded and Maine where winds gusted as high as 80mph in Augusta. The storm continued northward into Canada where it became mainly a windy rainstorm and damage was minor.
However in the United States, Carol became the costliest hurricane to strike the United states until Hurricane Diane in 1955. Damage from Carol was 460 millions dollars at that time, but adjusted to 2005 dollars was more costly than Dennis or Isabel at 4 billion dollars.
Regional Forecast. As of 8/28.
High pressure currently cresting over the Northeast will slide off the coast this evening. This high should be the main influence in sensible weather over the next 36-48 hours. By Thursday a weakening cold front will move into the region from the northwest. By Friday afternoon front will push offshore and be replaced by high pressure for the rest of the weekend.
A beautiful day is store for all of the Northeast with high pressure in control. Outside of a few afternoon cumulus clouds skies will be mainly clear allowing for abundant sunshine. Temperatures will be running close to seasonal averages, perhaps a few degrees warmer. Highs will reach the mid to upper 70's across northern New England to the Adirondacks of New York. Across the rest of the interior highs will climb to the low 80's with mid 80's along the coastal plain and big cities.
Tonight clear skies will allow temperatures to drop some 20-30 degrees from the daily maxs. Lows will range from 50-55°F across the northern half of the region with upper 50's across the rest of the interior. Lows along the coastal plain will be near 60 with mid 60's along the coast and urban areas.
Wednesday will be a few degrees warmer than today with return flow around high pressure offshore. Dewpoints will come up some as well, but not enough to make it feel uncomfortable. Highs will make it to near 80°F across northern New York and New England with highs close to 90°F along the coastal plain and southern Pennsylvania. A wide range of 80's are expected inbetween. Skies will remain mostly clear although a few high/mid level clouds should begin to stream into western sections by late afternoon. Precipitation should remain west and north of the area in Michigan and Canada.
Front will begin to make it move on the Northeast Wednesday night as clouds and showers move into the area from the north and west. Best chances for seeing any precipitation will be centered around Lakes Erie and Ontario northeastward into northern Maine. High clouds should also begin to stream into the rest of the region helping to keep temperatures up during the night. Expect lows to drop into the mid top upper 50's across the northern half of New York and New England, with low to mid 60's across the rest of the Northeast except for along the coast and urban areas where lows could remain near 70°F
Cold front ought to be pushing through the Northeast as the day progresses on Thursday. Main dynamics associated with the front will push well north of the area into Canada but enough moisture and convergence with the front itself will exist for the possibility of showers and thunderstorms. Heat and humidity could be an issue south of the front as dewpoints climb to near 70°F. However with clouds hanging around temperatures will have trouble reaching uncomfortable levels (90°F+). The best chance for seeing temps/dewpoints reach these levels will be in the Connecticut Valley and the New York City/Philadelphia urban corridor. Temperatures across the rest of the region will rise to the 70's behind the front and to the 80's ahead of the front. Thunderstorms shouldn't reach severe levels but any thunderstorm can produce gusty winds and heavy rain. Most areas will receieve less than a quarter inch of rain except for those that get caught under a heavy shower or thunderstorm. Even those areas shouldn't pick up any more than an inch of rain.
Front will be moving off the coast Thursday night with clearing skies and lowering humidity. There could be some lingering showers and thundershowers along coastal areas. Areas that pick up rainfall could see some fog development, but outside of that threat most will enjoy a beautiful night. Lows will range from the mid to upper 40's across northern New York and New England with 50's across the rest of the interior and low to mid 60's along the coastal plain and urban areas.
High pressure builds back into the area on Friday with mostly sunny skies and highs near normal levels for late August. I wouldn't be surprised to see a terrain enhanced shower across northern New England during the afternoon hours with a shortwave swinging by just to the north in Canada. There could also be some thundershowers along the immediate coast as front as some trouble pushing offshore.
Clear skies with high pressure in control decent radiational cooling conditions expected. Lows should drop to the upper 40's across the northern interior with 50's across the rest of the interior and low 60's along the coast and urban areas.
High pressure will remain in control for the holiday weekend with chances for precipitation confined to extreme northern New England late in the period as ridge could flatten some and could allow for shortwave energy to brush by. Other than that small concern it should be a picture perfect weekend with mainly cloud-free skies and temperatures running near to slightly above normal. Highs will start the weekend near normal, perhaps rising up to 5 degrees above normal by Labor Day. As for overnight lows they could run a few degrees below normal at the beginning of the period thanks to good radiational cooling conditions. As airmass warms by Labor Day overnight lows should climb to near normal levels for the beginning of September.
A couple of disturbances could move through the region as we head into next week. One on Tuesday, which could bring a decent shot of rainfall (at least for northern areas) and again on Friday. The jet stream should remain north of the area and 850hPa temps should be slightly above average. This should translate to temperatures running up to 5°F above the norm for early September.
Beyond next weekend a pattern change could be shaping up as a rather zonal jet stream positioned north of the US/Canadian border could begin to buckle allowing for more troughiness to dip down into the country. Looks like some areas across the northerntier states could receieve their first frost of the season by the middle of the month.
Long range models have also been showing some tropical activity somewhere in the Atlantic basin by mid-month. Hopefully the large trough which could result of this pattern change will help to keep any tropical systems on a path away from the US coastline.
Storm reports last 72 hours. Click on map to view individual reports.
Current SST's off the Northeast Coast. SST's have edged up slightly over the last several days and are now slightly below average.
Eastern Great Lakes water temperature as of August 26th.
August by the numbers:
August 1st - 85°F/59°F....0.00"....90%
August 2nd - 90°F/61°F....0.00"....95%
August 3rd - 89°F/63°F....0.34"....50%
August 4th - 82°F/62°F....0.00"....95%
August 5th - 81°F/51°F....0.00"....85%
August 6th - 78°F/63°F....0.04"....25%
August 7th - 83°F/63°F....0.06"....40%
August 8th - 87°F/66°F....1.18"....80%
August 9th - 80°F/58°F....0.13"....35%
August 10th - 64°F/52°F....1.02"....0%
August 11th - 78°F/53°F....0.00"....85%
August 12th - 82°F/55°F....0.00"....80%
August 13th - 81°F/56°F....0.02"....75%
August 14th - 74°F/48°F....0.00"....90%
August 15th - 78°F/51°F....0.00"....60%
August 16th - 82°F/58°F....0.13"....60%
August 17th - 73°F/55°F....0.03"....50%
August 18th - 67°F/50°F....0.00"....40%
August 19th - 69°F/49°F....0.00"....30%
August 20th - 63°F/53°F....0.21"....15%
August 21st - 55°F/53°F....0.57"....0%
August 22nd - 58°F/53°F....0.01"....5%
August 23rd - 71°F/55°F....0.03"....5%
August 24th - 83°F/65°F....0.11"....40%
August 25th - 92°F/69°F....Trace....55%
August 26th - 73°F/59°F....0.02"....60%
August 27th - 77°F/56°F....0.00"....80%
August 28th - 80°F/58°F....0.00"....70%
August 29th - 82°F/55°F....0.00"....85%
August 30th - 84°F/60°F....0.00"....75%
August 31st - 75°F/55°F....0.00"....35%
Updated: 3:52 AM GMT on September 01, 2007