Thomas is an avid weather enthusiast, landscaper and organic gardener. This blog is dedicated to Northeast and tropical weather forecasting. Enjoy!
By: sullivanweather, 9:59 AM GMT on July 07, 2007
Video of thunderstorms that moved through July 27th.
Video was shot on my covered porch in Bethel, NY. I would estimate the strongest winds at 50 mph. Not quite severe, but strong enough to blow down a large (50ft tall, 1ft girth) maple tree on the other side of the property. (pictures on post #96)
One more today of scattered showers and thunderstorms for coastal locations in the Northeast. Slow change in airmass is taking place with dewpoints slowly dropping over the last 24 hours. Frontal boundary is slowly slipping off the coast as ridge builds in from the west. This should bring a return to summer-like weather by mid-week with some areas approaching 90°F. Another trough approaches by the end of the week, but it should be weak and moisture starved, eventually washing out as southwesterly flow takes over this weekend, perhaps bringing some decent heat with it.
Still have slow-moving front to deal with in the short-term which will be a focus for the development of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Areas closer to the coast are favored which far inland should remain partly to mostly sunny. Temperatures will warm to the upper 70's to mid 80's.
Things clear out tonight, allowing for temperatures to drop close to the dewpoints. This should allow for some fog to develop in valleys and low lying areas. Low's will be in the mid 50's far inland, near 60 along the coastal plain and mid to upper 60's in urban and coastal areas.
Most of the Northeast will be dry and sunny on Tuesday with the exception of the mountainous terrain across Northern New York and New England where some upslope flow could spark an isolated shower. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer tomorrow.
Another beautiful clear night Tuesday night. Temperatures should be similar to tonight's lows. Very comfortable for this time of year. I would really like to see this type of weather once the persieds get going.
Temperatures continue to warm on Wednesday and Thursday as most areas get into the 80's and a few places could get into the 90's.
99L within the next 24 hours?
The disturbance at 9°N, 44°W looks to be gaining convection and might have a low pressure associated with it. Good cyclonic flow is evident on satellite with the ITCZ showing an 'S" pattern, which tells me somehting might be devleoping.
I give this area a 'fair' outlook for tropical storm devleopment.
Storm reports last 72 hours. Click on map to view individual reports.
Looking towards August...
GFS model has been consistant in dropping a new polar vortex into Canada from across the North Pole. Position of this vortex will be critical as a major pattern shift could ensue. If this low drops into the Yukon a cooler wetter pattern could develop over the west, finally pushing the ridge about 20° eastwards. However vortex could simply replace the one that's been lingering over Hudson Bay all summer.
I happen to think that the latter will be true and the persistant trough in the east, ridge in the west pattern will continue.
All in all expect continuation of hot&dry weather out west except for the extreme Northwest, which could get brushed by a few fronts. Highly changeable/stormy weather over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes/Northeast states under fast flow aloft. Becoming warmer and drier in Texas and Southern Plains as western ridge flattens some. Then there's the Southeast, which I believe could take a hit from a tropical system during the first two weeks of August. Other than that gut feeling, weather in the Southeast should be rather normal for this time of year. Warm humid conditions with daily chances for afternoon thunderstorms.
Updated: 7:24 AM GMT on August 01, 2007